MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007

Posted by: Inclement Weather

MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 14/02/2007 08:54

On the suggestion of Madmax, I thought I would start this thread as a general thread to discuss the transition of the MJO and any active monsoon troughs that may result. The only other thread that discussed this was the "Early Start to Monsoon" thread, which has since been closed. This seems to be quite separate from the ENSO discussion.

Anyway, to kick this discussion off, I note the MJO indicator seems to be making large strides in the last few days towards a recommencement in phase one. The spider has been happy sitting in the middle for a while digesting its last feast. It's now time for it to venture out again and 'spin another web'. smile
Posted by: Madmax

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 14/02/2007 14:38

Its been making a move and it should make a left turn soon as activity is pouring into the idian ocean.
Posted by: adon

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 14/02/2007 14:39

Good idea starting this thread! :wave: Hopefully this next MJO will kick off another widespread event for the country. Just hope that the dying elnino is not propped up by another WWB. Maybe though by the time it effects our region we will have moved far enough away from elnino, we will not have to worry too much!
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 14/02/2007 15:07

lol, nice spider-web analogy :p . Yes hopefully this MJO doesnt reinvigorate the elnino. We dont wanna read headlines in a months time saying "El nino back from the dead" eek
Posted by: Floodhunter

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 15/02/2007 21:23

Looks now to be in phase one - assume that means Weastern Australia will see effects in early March, and Qld in mid March?
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 15/02/2007 23:22

It's still possible for WA to begin seeing effects of the next MJO by the end of February, and assuming normal periodicity, Qld should see some effects a week or two later - early to mid March.
As for the possibility of MJO reinvigorating the el nino by starting off a WWB, this would be probably be more likely to happen with a strong late season MJO burst(April-May-June), since that is often about the time when changes of ENSO status begin to happen.
In any case, active MJO phases that affect our area are perfectly normal throughout the summer, and only 1 or 2 out of every 5 seasons (as an average) turns out to be an el nino - and since we've just experienced el nino the odds of it happening again must be reduced. So, I don't think there is too much to worry about yet.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 16/02/2007 07:36

MJO is now officially in phase 1. Finally. We should see it do its stuff in phase 4 towards the end of the month.

This is the latest situation report by Lexie Donald:

Quote:
Current Situation
The next passage (Phase 4) of the MJO is due late (20-27th) February, and appears to have slowed to a more usual 40-50 day interval. The slowing, and the development of the monsoon and several lows about northern Australia, obscuring the signal strength of the MJO Index make determining the timing of the next MJO difficult.

In the mean time Phases 4-5-6 are associated with enhanced probability of rainfall in many areas of Australia.

The passage of the MJO is also associated with green season (green break, green shoulder) and wet season onset in Northern Australia. The monsoon trough is now established.

Not all passages of the MJO result in an enhanced rainfall response, however the MJO is more likely to have an impact on Australian rainfall during Austral summer. Also fewer 'weak' MJO Index signals when Phase cannot be determined are recorded during summer.

Lexie Donald

Tuesday 13 February, 2007 2:31 PM
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 16/02/2007 08:47

i dont think it will take long for it to go into phase 2
Posted by: Madmax

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 17/02/2007 03:28

Sure wont its already there and cruising. :cheers:
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 17/02/2007 06:56

MJO in phase 2 now
Posted by: lawless

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 17/02/2007 09:19

guys.. I keep hearing about this MJO... please could you give us newbies a "snapshot" of what it is ... & how you can tell what stage it is at ?.


tia. wink ..
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 17/02/2007 09:25

here is the link to the MJO page this should help ya out

http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/index.asp
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 17/02/2007 09:29

The MJO page indicates that the MJO is in Phase 1. Where does it say it's in Phase 2?
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 17/02/2007 09:30

if you look on the spiderweb thing it is borderline phase1 phase 2 so phase 2 is close enough IMO
Posted by: lawless

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 17/02/2007 10:28

thank you smile ..
Posted by: zoso-wx

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 17/02/2007 12:01

You trying to accelerate it squid? good boy

This next one will probably be the last chance for really decent rains here in the top end before we slowly head towards the knock em down storms and the dry season so if it stalls between phases 3-6 I won't complain laugh

:cheers:
Posted by: Madmax

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 18/02/2007 02:01

Mojo is going fast I was right it was already phase 2 could even be phase 3 already though its dropped into nuetral stage. EC is predicting a phase 4 by end of Feb could even be closer Wed or Thurs? TC 14s is already 23S so it shouldn't hold it up to much. IW u forgot about TC14S gave away MJO being moved on from phase 1. :cheers: Most likely TC14S is the back edge of the MJO.
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 18/02/2007 07:28

according to the spidergraph thing the MJO sliped into phase 2 before going back into hiding one thing is clear thou it sure is on the move.
Posted by: Madmax

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 19/02/2007 00:24

Mojo almost phase three and building in strength
:wave: :cheers:
Posted by: Mick10

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 19/02/2007 00:29

sweet smile
Posted by: zoso-wx

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 19/02/2007 02:13

Was interesting to see a lot of activity, well comparably, around La Reunion Island including TC Rosa during the disappearance/neutral phase. Nice to see it speeding through phase 2 so hopefully we'll see something good at the end of the month. Quite a lot of cloud and convection on latest sat pic south of Myanmar and Malaysia atm.

This is probably the last chance for the wet to redeem itself in the NT as even if it goes back to 30 day return the next one will be right at the end of the wet wet in late March and we will be into the end of season storms. But we saw what happened last year and I am holding on to anything wink

:cheers:
Posted by: Pacman

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 19/02/2007 08:40

Quote:
Originally posted by zoso-wx:
Was interesting to see a lot of activity, well comparably, around La Reunion Island including TC Rosa during the disappearance/neutral phase. Nice to see it speeding through phase 2 so hopefully we'll see something good at the end of the month. Quite a lot of cloud and convection on latest sat pic south of Myanmar and Malaysia atm.

This is probably the last chance for the wet to redeem itself in the NT as even if it goes back to 30 day return the next one will be right at the end of the wet wet in late March and we will be into the end of season storms. But we saw what happened last year and I am holding on to anything wink

:cheers:
Remember Cat 5 Cyclone Monica formed on April 17th last year and became one of the most destructive cyclones ever to be seen in the southern oceans.
I guess the MJO has stuck to the Bom's forecast track, they did originally say it would return mid-late Feb.
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 19/02/2007 09:11

yes the MJO is in phase 2 and racing towards phase 3 it would not suprise me for it to be in phase 3 tomorrow
Posted by: zoso-wx

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 19/02/2007 19:41

Yes I do Pacman hence the last sentence of my last post smile . That was a one off I'd say, but even before that formed we had a decent April with around 200mm from knock em down storms and gulf lines earlier on in April. Think ex-TC Monica only dropped about 40mm on the Sunday here iirc. Bit of a let down as I was hoping for a good one, maybe not 360kmh good but high cat 3 at least just to experience it.

:cheers:
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 19/02/2007 19:46

One off? April has seen many destructive cyclones over the years. Aivu for one. Nothing can be discounted. I would be prepared to take bets that March and April will be exceptionally wet for the eastern tropics this year.
Posted by: E-J

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 19/02/2007 20:04

Quote:
Originally posted by runoff:
One off? April has seen many destructive cyclones over the years. Aivu for one. Nothing can be discounted. I would be prepared to take bets that March and April will be exceptionally wet for the eastern tropics this year.
I would put money on that also runoff, we are in for some interesting few weeks ahead
Posted by: Madmax

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 20/02/2007 02:05

Mojo is pumping now, strengthening curve is very Steep, looking good for our last big burst of the wet season :cheers:
Posted by: Karratha Pilotdude

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 20/02/2007 02:33

Does this mean that us WA folks will have our long awaited cyclones and not just silly litte things like Clare, we want ones like Larry lol make life a bit more intersting!!!

laugh

As long as it brings lots of rain and 2 days off work im a very happy man
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 20/02/2007 07:38

MJO should be in phase 3 tomorrow it is looking like it is going to be a strong burst when it gets here
Posted by: zoso-wx

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 20/02/2007 09:11

One off as in the strongest Cat 5 hitting Aust in recorded history. I am perfectly aware cyclones can occur in April!!! I agree that the late wet season could appease the lack of a wet season overall in the tropics so far

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/SHGMSIRW.JPG -> some nice convection SW of Indonesia this morning

:cheers:
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 20/02/2007 16:20

Although, the monsoon trough is currently well north of Australia, this should change in the next few days, with the arrival of the MJO into phase 4.
The latest weekly tropical climate note out today looks promising:
"Over the last week or so tropical convection over the central Pacific region has diminished, while widespread areas of convection have increased in the Indian Ocean, indicative of a renewed active phase of the MJO developing there. This is a typical prelude to an increase in monsoonal activity over northern Australia. Consequently, northern Australia and adjacent regions are likely to see tropical weather activity increase significantly over the next week or so, compared to the low levels of convection seen over most parts during recent weeks."
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 20/02/2007 16:23

would be good if the MJO stalled in phase 4/5 and strengthened and didnt go beyond 6 but thats just wishful thinking :rolleyes:
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 20/02/2007 16:44

I like the 'increase significantly' bit laugh Lets hope the northern parts of WA and the NT benefit from this MJO also! They need it!!
Posted by: Mick10

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 20/02/2007 16:53

yes i am glad things are coming together again, i have dried out enough and need some more action please. u never know your luck die elnino its one of those seasons.
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 21/02/2007 08:35

it sure looks like that this MJO is gonna be a big one
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 21/02/2007 08:59

Yes Squid, despite the current graph, MJO is in phase three as of yesterday according to the latest report from Lexie Donald:

Quote:
The passage (Phase 4) of the MJO is imminent (Phase 3 as at 20th February). Compared to recent 30-35 day interval the MJO appears to have slowed to a more usual 40-50 day time frame. In the mean time Phases 4-5-6 are associated with enhanced probability of rainfall in many areas of Australia.

The passage of the MJO is also associated with green season (green break, green shoulder) and wet season onset in Northern Australia. The monsoon activity will increase (as compared with recent drier/break conditions) and another burst of monsoonal activity is likely. As the next passage of the MJO won't be until mid-April, I suspect this is the last MJO induced burst of monsoon activity for the 06-07 summer wet season.

Not all passages of the MJO result in an enhanced rainfall response, however the MJO is more likely to have an impact on Australian rainfall during Austral summer. Also fewer 'weak' MJO Index signals when Phase cannot be determined are recorded during summer.

Lexie Donald

Tuesday 20 February, 2007 2:47 PM
Let the good times roll! smile
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 21/02/2007 09:30

i think we still could get a bit of it in mid april but lets see how this one goes
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 21/02/2007 10:25

Even if the monsoon trough is North of Australia in Mid April still high probability of cyclones forming within the monsoon trough so some areas can still get very wet.

John.
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 21/02/2007 10:27

esp with la nina being in force by then
Posted by: Madmax

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 22/02/2007 20:27

Mojo on its way to Phase 4 :cheers:

Now it appears to me that sometimes the Monsoon line drawn by the experts appears to fall half way between the actual area being affected by the monsoon ""like now for exanple"" frown . This kind of weather is not the average set of storms we pick up. It is the kind of weather we get when the experts say "oh the monsoon is coming but its not here yet"

Take GMSIR now as example it points the monsoon out to be much futher south.

And why does the moonsoon always have to be a connect the dots with the lows confused Is it not possible for the monsoon to be lower than the lows confused

Its apperas the NW wind regime that experts follow as and indicator can sometimes also appear confusing when they tell us we get a monsoon and all we get is a few measly showers confused confused

Anyway lets enjoy the monsoon when it gets here wink
Posted by: zoso-wx

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 22/02/2007 22:21

Well monsoon does mean wind so I am guessing that is what they base their charts and so forth on, even if there is a mass of storms in an area, if the surface to 500 flow is not NW then it isn't the monsoon as such. In regards to joining the lows with dots, that is just a guide as much as anything as there probably aren't enough recording stations or aerosondes to be completely precise given the trough tends to be over water much of the time.

I know what you mean re a few measly showers which is basically what Darwin got during the first monsoon period of the year while the VRD district did really well out of it. It is very hit and miss as it is and you may remember the 2 week period last year when we had gusty W or WNW winds for 2 weeks while that landphoon resided over Wave Hill, Tanami Desert etc drowning that area. Just my 2c, if I knew more I'd probably have a job forecasting it or something wink

Finally, I fully intend to enjoy it when it gets here, hoping we get drowned by days of rain smile

:cheers:
Posted by: Karratha Pilotdude

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 23/02/2007 02:34

The GFS outlook could come to Fruition then if all this comes together smile
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 23/02/2007 14:17

The MJO has tracked backwards from 20th to 21st. Wish it would do that over us.. its possible though due to the stronger trades
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 23/02/2007 16:32

I wonder if that low that develops over the Coral sea Monday which EC has had it there to develop for days will be assoicated with the MJO doesn't look like it will be considering MJO is in phase 3/4?
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 23/02/2007 16:57

It is quite common to see a low in place over the northern Coral Sea at this time of year regardless of the MJO phase. If the MJO reaches phases 4 and 5 during the week, however, that may help the low develop further. Even phase 4 can sometimes help to enhance tropical activity in the north Qld region.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 23/02/2007 17:05

Ta thanks RN
Posted by: Madmax

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 24/02/2007 20:32

Crusing towards phase 4 , next two weeks will be interesting.
Posted by: zoso-wx

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 25/02/2007 03:56

Got this sat pic off a post on Stormtrack tropical forum showing what the MJO, in part, has produced so far. TC Favio making landfall in Mozambique, Tropical low near Madagascar, TC Gamede, TC Humba.

Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 25/02/2007 07:00

the MJO is well on its way to Phase 4 at this rate it should be in phase 4 by Tuesday or Wednesday and it is getting stronger again.
Posted by: swflyfish

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 25/02/2007 09:41

zoso-wx,
That is one awesome pic!!

Almost one continual line of TC's. Imagine sitting in their path and anticiapating what lies ahead.
Posted by: zoso-wx

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 25/02/2007 12:44

Yeh it sure is swflyfish, reminds me of another sat pic from, I think, 2 years ago when there were 4 fully formed TCs in the Indian. Hopefully someone reads this and has it buried in their archives wink

:cheers:
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 26/02/2007 06:56

according to the spiderweb chart the MJO has just gone into phase 4
Posted by: adon

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 26/02/2007 10:31

Was just wondering with the MJO not due to really start kicking in for Aus until stage 5(I think I am right) What will this do the for rains in Qld with FNQ having some very wet weather in the last week or 2. Will it spread or just make the rain even heavier for the part already getting it?
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 26/02/2007 11:19

The wet weather that parts of north Qld have had in the past week or so appears not have been related to the MJO at all, just moist SE trades interacting with a mid-level low/trough.
The current activity in the Coral Sea is probably not much influenced by the MJO either, so far anyway.
Phase 4 can begin to have some effects on rainfall in northern Australia, especially at this time of year. Typically the first effects are felt in north-western Australia, and that seems to be case now, with a tropical low forming near Darwin and expected to move west, probably forming a cyclone off the Kimberley coast in the next few days.
Phases 4, 5 and 6 should provide a window of opportunity over the next 2 weeks or so, until about mid-March, during which the monsoonal activity is likely to increase, and tropical moisture could spread further over the Australian continent, with development of further cyclones quite likely in this time.
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 27/02/2007 06:46

The MJO is racing through phase 4 atm
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 27/02/2007 16:50

The latest current situation report on the MJO page is interesting, particularly where they mention forecasts of several tropical cyclones in conjunction with this active phase:

"The MJO is located north of Australia (Phase 4), and the monsoon trough is re-established. Rain is forecast for northern Australia, and along the Qld coast, consistent with the Summer Phase 4 maps shown on this site. Phases 4-5-6 are associated with enhanced probability of rainfall in many areas of Australia.

The passage of the MJO is also associated with green season (green break, green shoulder) and wet season onset in Northern Australia. As the next passage of the MJO won't be until mid-April, I suspect that this is may be the last MJO induced burst of monsoonal activity for the 06-07 summer wet season. Some forecasts suggest several tropical cyclones may develop in conjunction with this passage of the MJO/ monsoon trough development."
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 27/02/2007 17:23

i am expecting Tc perri to form not log after Odeete is over
Posted by: Karratha Pilotdude

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 27/02/2007 17:26

Is this good for WA? lol
Posted by: cyclonecece

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 27/02/2007 18:06

zosowx,can u get a pic like that for australia???
Posted by: zoso-wx

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 27/02/2007 19:17

When we get 3 or 4 cyclones visible at once I will wink Nah, it was a sat pic I got off a post in the US stormtrack tropical forum, and I used to have a full disk Asia, sub cont and Aust sat pic link but seems to have gone into the ether. If I find it or any others I will paste the link.

Ok, I am so fired about the coming few days that I've found something, albeit lame compared to that one above. https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/cgi-bin/main.pl?pearl+sat , if this does not work go here http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/index.shtml/gmsfull.jpg and follow the relevant links

:cheers:
Posted by: cyclonecece

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 27/02/2007 19:21

thanks
Posted by: Mick10

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 27/02/2007 19:46

global pix, from CIMSS
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/mosaic/images/images.html
Posted by: zoso-wx

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 27/02/2007 19:54

Great stuff, thanks Mick10
Posted by: cyclonecece

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 27/02/2007 21:03

thanks found it all okay
Posted by: Squeako da Magnifico.

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 27/02/2007 23:25

The latest weekly tropical note says there could be a possibility of another active burst of the MJO through Northern Australia in late March and early April.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 28/02/2007 00:51

Latest MJO weekly report is out:

Quote:
Current Situation
The MJO is located north of Australia (Phase 4), and the monsoon trough is re-established. Rain is forecast for northern Australia, and along the Qld coast, consistent with the Summer Phase 4 maps shown on this site. Phases 4-5-6 are associated with enhanced probability of rainfall in many areas of Australia.

The passage of the MJO is also associated with green season (green break, green shoulder) and wet season onset in Northern Australia. As the next passage of the MJO won't be until mid-April, I suspect that this is may be the last MJO induced burst of monsoonal activity for the 06-07 summer wet season. Some forecasts suggest several tropical cyclones may develop in conjunction with this passage of the MJO/ monsoon trough development.

Not all passages of the MJO result in an enhanced rainfall response, however the MJO is more likely to have an impact on Australian rainfall during Austral summer. Also fewer 'weak' MJO Index signals when Phase cannot be determined are recorded during summer.

Lexie Donald

Tuesday 27 February, 2007 3:02 PM
(my bold)

It should be an interesting couple of weeks
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 01/03/2007 14:48

the MJO is racing towards phase 5 atm
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 02/03/2007 00:10

MJO is now officially in phase 5. Wet days ahead . . . smile
Posted by: mjoprincess

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 02/03/2007 09:57

Don't forget the spiderweb runs 2 days behind real time. The strong convection over the Banda Sea has been the MJO (ie Phase 5)
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 02/03/2007 20:40

Hi mjoprincess! Welcome to the forum! Yes, convection is exploding over the Timor Sea NW of the Top End at the time of this post. It never ceases to amaze me the power of the MJO! I can only imagine what effect it's going to have on the Coral Sea in a few days time. If this TC has developed by then, it may really spark things up.
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 03/03/2007 07:14

the MJO is going through another strenghenening phase as is crusises through phase 5
Posted by: Brian & Abby

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 03/03/2007 12:37

does the trend of convection focus moving back to the indian ocean mean the m.j o has slid back or is there no connestion
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 03/03/2007 17:05

Quote:
Originally posted by abby and brian:
does the trend of convection focus moving back to the indian ocean mean the m.j o has slid back or is there no connestion
No, it doesn't mean that the MJO is going backwards. There is convective active in the Coral Sea as well, anyway. The individual disturbances may move in any direction while the MJO is progressing eastwards.
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 04/03/2007 07:07

the MJO continues to strenghen as it goes through phase 5
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 04/03/2007 12:02

bloody mjo strengthening again frown
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 04/03/2007 12:07

Strenthening MJO in phases 5-6 should be good news for eastern Australia's rainfall prospects in the next week or so .... we want a replacement for TC Odette if her demise is iminent which now seems on the cards!
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 04/03/2007 12:08

yeah but bad news for a major westerly wind burst in the pacific... it can spawn cyclones on either sides of the equator, and wolah, you got urself another developing elnino.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 04/03/2007 12:11

Yes, but I think it is a little early to worry about that yet ... especially if we believe models that move us towards La Nina.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 04/03/2007 12:13

well POAMA has backed off, now shifting towards a warming. Not sure if its because its taking this MJO in as a factor, which i probably think it is..
Posted by: Brian & Abby

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 04/03/2007 12:16

would the nth g.o c do take a look
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 04/03/2007 12:57

Likely there could be some new development in the northern GOC in a couple of days, after TC George gets a bit further out of the way.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 04/03/2007 13:56

Quote:
Originally posted by die elnino:
well POAMA has backed off, now shifting towards a warming. Not sure if its because its taking this MJO in as a factor, which i probably think it is..
Hi Bokkey. Like you said yourself and few others have too between March and June it's the toughest time of the year for Models like POAMA to predict what will happen in the future so I really wouldn't worry to much what POAMA is saying at the moment we have now entered that time frame bracket where there is less confidance in the models future predictions.

John.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 04/03/2007 13:57

Thats true john. but march to june is also the critical time frame when elninos usually develop which is why i dont like this MJO coming right on queue..
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 04/03/2007 14:02

Fingers crossed Bokkey lets hope does well in phase 5 and 6 then weakens right off into 7 and 8.
Personally I will start getting worried if it shows a warming for 2 to 3 weeks everyday from now onwards but if it fluctuates it's all good Bokkey we don't mind that as long as it stays on the cool side in the negatives.

It is a distinct possibilty RN GFS been showing enhanced rainfall for a couple of days now in the GOC towards the end of next week could be a low developing there. Also seems like GFS and EC both agree on another low/cyclone developing in the Timor sea next weekend once George is well ands truly out of the way so perhaps with abit of luck theres hope for all of us just yet for rainfall.
Posted by: Stephen

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 04/03/2007 14:14

Its quite unlikely for another el nino to develop only a month after one has been declared over. It is most likely that ENSO will be neutral or la nina.
No its not impossible, but close enough.

Steve
Posted by: mjoprincess

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 05/03/2007 09:53

MJO strengthening (by lookiing at the MJO RMM Index) does NOT a) mean better rainfall prospects; rain response is more or less regardless of signal strength; b) mean that WWB are/will be stronge; as the MJO signal 'strength' is a measure of 3 things (OLR, surface zonal wind and upper level zonal wind), so strengthening can just be convection ie OLR
c) El Nino; you need a warm pool for the WWB to act upon and if you look at the c/s of the Pacific the warm pool has dissipated.
Posted by: KevD

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 05/03/2007 10:10

Thanks for that clarification - Bokkey you can calm down now :p

Get the feeling your main field of work is MJO connected? Great to have you on the forum smile
Posted by: mjoprincess

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 05/03/2007 10:16

I am the MJO Princess!
YEs my main field of work is MJO connected
I see myself quoted on here all the time so I thought I'd join....
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 05/03/2007 10:30

Thanks very much, MJO Princess for that information - certainly, I find it helpful in puting things into perspective, towards a better understanding of the complex phenomena that is the MJO! smile
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 05/03/2007 15:30

thanx for the clarification princess. Never knew point c til u mentioned it smile we should make u an mjo tiara or a crown..
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 05/03/2007 15:45

cheers for clearing that us for us
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 06/03/2007 09:08

MJO is nearing phase 6 man it is moving fast this time round.in my last post i ment to say up for us not us for us
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 06/03/2007 14:38

The chances of finishing of the wet with some decent falls across the tropics seems to be deminishing as each day goes by...

From the latest trop note:

'During the latter half of February tropical convection over the central Pacific region diminished, while widespread areas of convection increased over the tropical Indian Ocean. The region of enhanced convection encroached upon Indonesian and Australian longitudes late February to early March, consistent with development of an active MJO phase. The progress is well represented by the Real-time Multivariate MJO [RMM] index, depicted at: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html. Tropical cyclones Odette and George formed near northern Australia during this time, with an active monsoon trough bringing substantial rainfall over parts of northern Australia, though tropical moisture did encroach very far south.

Overall, this active phase appears to be waning over northern Australia, though at time of writing TC George was still a strong focus of tropical weather. Development of an active MJO event over northern Australia around late February means there is some chance of yet another active phase encroaching over Australian longitudes before the end of the monsoon/tropical cyclone season, possibly late March to early April.'
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 07/03/2007 01:39

We have phase 6, absolutely steaming along.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 07/03/2007 08:53

Usually when the MJO is in Phases 5 and 6, it enchances rainfall over tropical Queensland.
This has not really happened this time, due largely to TC George which was spawned by the MJO then promptly took the tropical moisture back away to the west. TC/ex-TC Odette has not helped much either, drawing moisture away to the eastern Coral Sea and leaving us in the middle.
I suppose that while we have Phase 6, there is a chance of some other significant rain producing system of some form.
Also the earlier the finish of the current active Phase occurs, the better the chance is of a new active phase by the end of March/early April. As the monsoon/tropical cyclone season started late, and we no longer have El Nino supressing further developments, there is probably a higher than usual chance of good late season rainfall from the monsoon/tropical cyclone season.
Posted by: mjoprincess

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 07/03/2007 09:49

While there is a strong ENSO signal in monsoon onset, the probability of early/late decline of the wet season shows hardly any ENSO signal.
In the summer, Phase 7 can also enhance rainfall in Trop N Qld, so there is still some chane of rain.
Autumn MJO's can be spectacular (see the MJO sit rep this week) so fingers crossed (and crossing your fingers is a technical probability modifier believe me)
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 07/03/2007 18:29

Latest MJO situation report:


Quote:
Current Situation
The MJO is located north of Australia (Phase 5-6) and the monsoon trough is well established. Northern Australia has received widespread rain, however, this has not pushed very far south. The monsoon should be active for another week or so, so hopefully areas of central and southern Qld will get some rain, as Odette did not bring the much hoped for relief. Phases 4-5-6 are associated with enhanced probability of rainfall in many areas of Australia.

The passage of the MJO is also associated with green season (green break, green shoulder) and wet season onset in Northern Australia. As the next passage of the MJO won't be until mid-April, I suspect that this is may be the last MJO induced burst of monsoonal activity for the 06-07 summer wet season.

The next passage of the MJO is due mid-April. Last autumn the timing of the MJO corresponded with pre-planting rains in many Australian wheat growing regions. As the winter cropping season evolves I will provide updates on the rainfall anomalies (positive and negative) to be expected for that week.

Not all passages of the MJO result in an enhanced rainfall response, however the MJO is more likely to have an impact on Australian rainfall during Austral summer. Also fewer 'weak' MJO Index signals when Phase cannot be determined are recorded during summer.

Lexie Donald
Thanks mjoprincess, let's hope this onset can still bring some rains. However, like you say, we can always hope for a spectacular Autumn MJO.
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 07/03/2007 18:56

I can't for the life of me see how the MJO is in phase 6 as indicated by this plot
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last90days.gif
& the above posts, when all the cloud and TC and tropical activity and OLR are in phase 4 area!
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/03/2007 08:30

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/OLR_modes/h.6.ALL.S.html
Suddenly the MJO is plotted back at approx 120E in phase 4!
I'm happy now!
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/03/2007 09:11

all the action is happening in the phase 4 area not the phase 6 area what is the go with this?
Posted by: Brian & Abby

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/03/2007 12:06

asked the same question on page 5 about a week ago .Didnt get a very informative answer then Hope to see a better answer this time .sorry rainy night but i didnt agree with your reply then . Heres hoping this time Maybe the mjo princess could put some light on this particular question
Posted by: mjoprincess

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/03/2007 12:14

The Phase Space diagram (index/phase number) is a representation of the principal component (EOF) analysis of OLR ( so not just the cloud you can see in a sat picture, but how little heat they radiate into space because they have pushed into the tropopause, that is -OLR, which is what you are looking for), then the EOF accounts for zonal winds at the surface (looking for westerlies coming into the MJO at the bottom of the super cloud cluster which is about 5000-6000 km wide) and at the top (so the winds diverging away from MJO convection; warm moist air being pulled up in several cloumns, then heading away). Looking at the sat map and saying 'that bank of cloud is the MJO' is very very very subjective & are you looking at more than 1 thing to tell you wher MJO is???? NO!
The index is completely objective, uses lovely finite stats, looks at 3 very different aspects of the atmosphere, and lo and behold results from the index phase can be projected back onto a map giving you the location for a phase- the index does not 'look' at the tropics and find the MJO, it interprets the data, and finds the MJO, which THEN corresponds to locations in the tropics.
If you think you can pick out the MJO, then do, but don't use Matt's phase numbers to describe the location.
If you want to look at the link between rainfall and MJO Phases that I did, then use Matts phases and my maps on APSRU.

SIMPLE HEY!
Posted by: Brian & Abby

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/03/2007 12:20

no , still confused are you saying the mjo phase and main convection areas are very very loosely connected
Posted by: Brian & Abby

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/03/2007 12:24

and if so ,is the mjo position usefull to us amatuer want to be forcasters
Posted by: mjoprincess

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/03/2007 12:25

Abby and Brians ? from Page 5: does the trend of convection focus moving back to the indian ocean mean the m.j o has slid back or is there no connestion

NO, the MJO cannot go backwards, it 5000km across, and icludes heaps of energy as heat and moisture: this is one giant gravity wave travelling 10-15 m/s so it cannot do anything but head east (and dry out later over the Pacific): think of a big train.
Now imagine picking out your big train amonts hundreds of tracks (conveciton and mositure movement in the tropics): most of the trains are smaller,a dn tracle differnet speeds form the very distictive speed your trains is going, then imagine you are picking out this train from space by its heat signal(OLR) and the eaterly and weterly winds at the rails and along the top it (zonal winds)
Also, you can have 1-2 MJO trains at any time, never more, never less, sometimes drying out in the western hemisphere & hiding from you. Your train also influences the timing and size and shape of lots of other trains, & the biggest train (ENSO) and your train strongly influence each other.
Thats why the index is SO tricky, it finds most of the MJO most of the time!
Posted by: mjoprincess

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/03/2007 12:27

Sorry for the typos, I got carried away....
Now imagine picking out your big train amongst hundreds of tracks (convection and mositure movement in the tropics): most of the trains are smaller,& travel differnet speeds form the very distinctive speed your train is going, then imagine you are picking out this train from space by its heat signal(OLR) and the easterly and westerly winds at the rails and along the top of it (zonal winds)
Posted by: mjoprincess

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/03/2007 12:31

MJO and convection strongly connected but your ability to pick the eye out of cloud data means you don't see the whole MJO - the index does

subjectively finding the MJO- and linking it to rain forecasting?
Well lots of peole do that (I look out hte window and do nowcasts all the time) but the index and my assoc rainfall maps are objective tools, ie they forecast based on maths and stats and not on my gut feeling

DO BOTH!
Posted by: mjoprincess

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/03/2007 12:55

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDX1374.shtml

What are you seeing in Phase 4? (100-120E) There is normal tropical 'weather' 80-100E (~Ph3)
'weather' cf MJO- (more)transient, moves the wrong way, is not made up of super Cloud Clusters, perhaps assoc with the TC c'wise spin up?
cf MJO Toress strait region, long lived, you can follow it (using MSLP or something less tricky than sat pics) all the way from Somalia, over the past ~ 21 days, westerly winds at the surface to the west of it, upper level divergence in the vicinity of Phase location
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/03/2007 13:16

As far as I have always seen the OLR anomoly associated with the MJO is the only area of interest as that is where all the action is and that is where the monsoon, lows and TC's develop. And that is where the tropical moisture is available to feed southwards or Se'wards to Southern Australia. Some abstact MJO position with no action is not of much use to forecasting as far as I can see.
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/OLR_modes/h.6.ALL.S.html
That is where all the action is at 120E not at 160E, that is the area that is of interest 120E not 160E to me, and that is what I have always used as the MJO position and action area succesfully for prediction.
Posted by: mjoprincess

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/03/2007 14:09

The - OLR amnomaly at 120 is a TC and assoc convection, so indeed that is action
'Used succesfully for prediction '- prediction of what & where?
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/03/2007 14:52

sorry but most of that flew over my head sorry simple mind here
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/03/2007 14:55

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/OLR_modes/h.6.ALL.S.html
The top of this chart says MJO blue indicating MJO lines are solid blue lines as per the 120E blue circular lines. That is where the chart indicates that the MJO centre is located. Right on the highest OLR where the action is taking place. Seems clear to me anyway! That is how it appears that it should be interpreted, that is the way I have always viewed it on these charts.
I use the MJO-OLR maximum for forecasting the likelhood of tropical monsoon, tropical low and tropical cyclone activity, mainly because the areas where the MJO-OLR maximum are located are better potential tropical moisture feeder areas, to enable feeding down of tropical moisture into the southern states for connections with fronts, lows and jetstreams and the likelhood of thereby potential rains for southern states, when such interaction occurs.
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/03/2007 14:59

that map is over my head i am just learning about the MJO
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/03/2007 15:41

It looks worse than it is TCSquid!
It is just showing OLR Outgoing Long Wave Radiation from cloudtops, generally higher thicker cloud area will send less OLR back to space and are Blue to purple on chart. Brown indicates more OLR.
It is a time series for last 6 months latest time at bottom. The longtitude lines are shown at the bottom and the solid blue lines represent where the MJO supposably is in solid blue line circles. You can see it moving east with time, even though it is a bit more complex than that as you can see it varies in strengh as it drifts eastwards (from left to right) and, the dotted blue lines are a suppressed, or "anti-MJO" phase. They also drift eastwards. Complicating this there are ER Equatorial Rossby Waves also moving westwards, etc, but that is another story!
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/03/2007 16:54

ahh i am starting to get it now cheers for hanging in there
Posted by: Brian & Abby

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/03/2007 17:23

thanks weather or not, i understood some of that .sounded more relevant to my way of thinking From my point of view i equate my local weather from radar, infra red and visible so i might forget mjo Seems more relevant to longer range forcasts NOT MY PRIORITY
Posted by: bruce martin

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/03/2007 18:08

Great to see your comments mjo princess. Do you think we will get another MJO passage before the end of the wet season?
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 09/03/2007 07:59

the MJO is starting to weaken and retreat in phase 6
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 09/03/2007 11:53

The MJO graph now shows a weakening trend, but it would not be correct to say it is starting to "retreat". Retreating usually means going backwards, and the MJO does not do that, as indicated in a post above by Mjoprincess.

While it remains in Phase 6, at this time of year, it indicates a good chance of enhanced rainfall for much of eastern Australia, regardless of a possible weakening trend.
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 09/03/2007 13:06

my version of retreat is going back towards no phase
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 09/03/2007 13:39

I think perhaps it is always in one Phase or another .. it just happens sometimes that the signals or indicators are too weak for the index to pick the phase.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 10/03/2007 03:50

ah good to see the mjo weakening finally. This will allow stronger trades and an increasing chance of a lanina soon smile bad news = bugger all rain on the horizon
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 10/03/2007 07:57

the MJO is sure racing towards no phase again weakening rapidly
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 10/03/2007 12:55

Still showing up strongly on negative OLR signals on this one
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/OLR_modes/h.6.ALL.S.html
at 115 to 125E. I reckon that this OLR signal is better value for where the weather and tropical activity are anyway.
But, MJOPrincess maths model &
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last90days.gif maybe good for some other Tropical purposes.
Posted by: Brian & Abby

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 10/03/2007 15:11

have to agree with you there
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 12/03/2007 06:57

the MJO is about to slip into phase 7 in a much weakened mode
Posted by: Brian & Abby

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 12/03/2007 10:41

Well i guess thats end of the rain'''I DONTN THINK SO Dont care what the mjo suggests
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 12/03/2007 10:50

I agree, you don't need to have the MJO to get rain in the NT top end during the monsoon season. Sometimes, though, even in Phase 7 the MJO can help rainfall in parts of northern Australia at this time of the year.
What is perhaps more significant right now is that the monsoon trough is across the Top End, and if a low on the trough were to move west of Darwin, there could be further development later in the week.
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 13/03/2007 07:32

MJO is going backwards
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 13/03/2007 07:41

Thought I'd just quote this from a post from MJO princess back on page 7:
"NO, the MJO cannot go backwards, it 5000km across, and icludes heaps of energy as heat and moisture: this is one giant gravity wave travelling 10-15 m/s so it cannot do anything but head east (and dry out later over the Pacific): think of a big train."
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 13/03/2007 07:42

if it cant go backwards what is it doing now because it looks like it is going backwards to me according to the spiderchart confused
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 13/03/2007 07:53

The "spiderchart" tells only part of the story. It hasn't got further than Phase 6, but it doesn't indicate an exact geographical location.
The weekly situation report is due today.
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 13/03/2007 08:50

ahh oks i can see i have more learning to do yet
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 13/03/2007 11:15

Use the force Sqid... laugh
Posted by: Brian & Abby

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 13/03/2007 11:53

Most Jumbled Observation
Posted by: Brian & Abby

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 13/03/2007 11:57

seems it could be a usefull tool ,but im far from convinced anybody really knows how to interpret the data ,probably because vital data is yet to be discovered
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 13/03/2007 12:31

LOL!!! RD laugh
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 13/03/2007 16:22

Extract from today's weekly tropical climate note:
"This active phase continues to wane over northern Australia, and a relatively inactive period of the MJO is expected over the next couple of weeks. There is some chance of yet another active phase encroaching over Australian longitudes before the end of the monsoon/tropical cyclone season, possibly late March to early April."

Of course, seasonal showers and thunderstorms (and even an occasional TC) are possible during the inactive period, but it seems likely we'll wait until late March/early April for what may be the final burst of monsoon activity for this season together with a higher chance of tropical cyclones.
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 14/03/2007 07:36

we are back to where we started from with the MJO not being in any phase
Posted by: mjoprincess

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 15/03/2007 11:33

I have put a reference (in this weeks apsru-mjo SITREP) to some other OLR sites, since some like to use Matts OLR to 'find' the MJO.
It's west of 160E (~Phase7~) now as far as I'm concerned, and the signal strength is reduced because it has dried out (and should now speed up)
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 15/03/2007 13:56

The aforementioned Sitrep, (modesty obviously prevents mjoprincess from posting it herself):

Quote:
Current Situation
The MJO is located over the western Pacific. For those who use OLR to locate MJO convection (OLR Anomalies), similar to the MSLP anomalies noted for Phase 7, depicted on this site. Northern Australia has received widespread rain, however, this has not pushed very far south.

The passage of the MJO is also associated with green season (green break, green shoulder) and wet season onset in Northern Australia. As the next passage of the MJO won't be until mid-April, this will be the last opportunity for an MJO induced burst of monsoonal activity for the 06-07 summer wet season.

The next passage of the MJO is due mid-April. Last autumn the timing of the MJO corresponded with pre-planting rains in many Australian wheat growing regions. As the winter cropping season evolves I will provide updates on the rainfall anomalies (positive and negative) to be expected for that week.

Not all passages of the MJO result in an enhanced rainfall response, however the MJO is more likely to have an impact on Australian rainfall during Austral summer. Also fewer 'weak' MJO Index signals when Phase cannot be determined are recorded during summer.

Lexie Donald

Thursday 15 March 2007
Looking forward to April . . .
Posted by: Madmax

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 16/03/2007 01:43

In about ten days we should have a phase 3 advancing Mojo, Lexie Donald is predicting mid-april seems to be ignoring last time round same current position on the 9th of Feb took 10 days till phase 3 and 15 till phase 4 :cheers: :cheers:
Posted by: mjoprincess

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 16/03/2007 10:33

There is little or no autocorrolation between the timing/position of the 'last' MJO & the 'next'.
The 30 day timing observed recently is relatively unusual- given the size of the gravity wave.
I still think it will arrive April ...
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 16/03/2007 13:07

early april in time to devliver us a nice TC and loads of rain :cheers: :cheers:
Posted by: adon

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 16/03/2007 13:12

And go into the inland and break the drought!!! Ahhh one can dream! wink
Posted by: Madmax

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 16/03/2007 18:12

Picking two consecutive mojo signals has got to show more similarities than picking two at random.
For starters this current one is already looking like the last thats where part of my rather shallow observation came in laugh
Posted by: Brian & Abby

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 17/03/2007 10:52

Dont worry max ,i have problems too.I tend to think the train description is ok BUT i think whats missing is that,the tracks arent level.TO my thinking as mjo princess said , the signal becomes weak and hard to find ,Is this maybe because the winds are blowing like aposing wedges, some rising, some falling, thus transfering heat and moisture to different places ,sometimes hundreds of klms apart This would explain the sudden birth and death of monsoonal events
Posted by: Madmax

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 19/03/2007 01:21

Mojo is back near Phase 4 and 5 could be resurfacing nth of Aus.
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 19/03/2007 07:45

is it normal for the MJO to come back out when it does not come out in phase 1 or 2?
Posted by: KevD

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 19/03/2007 08:35

I think you'll find that in the next few days it (being the spider) starts meandering back towards phase 1 or 2 before 'surfacing' again.

The MJO can't go backwards so I don't think you'll suddenly find yourself in phase 4 or 5 in the next couple of days.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 19/03/2007 08:47

I agree that it wouldn't suddenly pop up in phase 4 or 5 within a couple of day from now.
It is possible that the MJO may be in Phase 1 or 2 in a weak state where the Phase is not shown on the spider graph. As has happened before, the signal may become stronger when it gets to about Phase 3 so it then pops up on the map, but that may be a week or two away yet.
Posted by: Madmax

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 19/03/2007 09:18

It can do anything aslong as it follows some king of anticlockwise loop which it has. Could just head back down towards Phase 1 or 2 but I reckon its ready to move out to phase 4 or 5.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 19/03/2007 11:52

If it's ready to move into Phase 4 or 5, that would indicate a complete cycle of no more than 25 days ... most unusual if not unprecented.
It's almost important to remember that "The MJO is always in one of 8 phases." That applies even if it is too weak to be determined by one method or another, such as the spider web graph.
That being said, "It is important to realise that all methods of tracking or forecasting the MJO are still EXPERIMENTAL."
http://www2.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate/15357.html
That site, athough containing much information that is also on MJO homepage and elsewhere, is quite useful.
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 20/03/2007 07:48

the MJO has come out in phase 5
Posted by: KevD

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 20/03/2007 09:37

...According to one experimental model.

Still not convinced myself and expect it to still come through Oz in a few weeks - though will be watching with interest over the next few days smile
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 20/03/2007 09:49

i go by that model as i do not understand any of the other stuff atm
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 20/03/2007 13:36

As MJOprincess has stated, the MJO does not go backwards; 'think of a train', she posits. Well, I think this is the caboose at the end of a largely empty freight train. wink
Posted by: SBT

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 20/03/2007 17:10

http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/current.asp

Hmm couldn't find a phase yesterday with a torch and 2 hands and guide dog but today its in phase 5.

Something fishy here. laugh

Looks like the Indons have been playing hide and seek the phases wink
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 20/03/2007 18:30

The current situation report on the MJO has been updated today, and states that the MJO is over the western Pacific [consistent with Phase 7] and that the next passage of the MJO is due early-mid April (5-12).
http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/sitrep.asp

It should be noted that the other page at
http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/index.asp and the spider web graph are two days behind and were last updated on 18 March.
Posted by: Madmax

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 20/03/2007 18:32

Its only "just" in phase 5 thats why u needed a torch and two guide dogs :p
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 20/03/2007 18:53

It's not in phase 5 according to Lexie Donald's update issued today:
http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/sitrep.asp
Posted by: Tsvboy

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 20/03/2007 23:00

This is mighty confusing to me. I have watched the MJO basically shrinking away, before it has popped out in Phase5.

If I understood MJOprincess, the graph doesnt indicate the "strength" of the event ?!?

I am totally confused by this turn of events. Anybody care to explain.

Also the text seems to be saying something different to the graph, is it phase 7 or phase 5?
Posted by: Madmax

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 20/03/2007 23:16

Only "explanation" is its taken a left turn and bolted back acroos the weak area should be up soon on the spider.
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 21/03/2007 08:46

the MJO is back in no phase again
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 21/03/2007 09:41

Ah, the caboose has fallen off its tracks while the front engine is running out of steam. Oh well, when you've missed the train, there's always another one just around the bend!
Posted by: KevD

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 21/03/2007 10:21

Quote:
Originally posted by Tsvboy:
This is mighty confusing to me. I have watched the MJO basically shrinking away, before it has popped out in Phase5.

If I understood MJOprincess, the graph doesnt indicate the "strength" of the event ?!?

I am totally confused by this turn of events. Anybody care to explain.

Also the text seems to be saying something different to the graph, is it phase 7 or phase 5?
It is in phase 7 - don't read too much into very weak signals as they could be misleading - look for longer patterns. The further out from the centre the graph is the stronger the signal - when it is very weak then the system is much less reliable and like any resource should be used bearing in mind its limitations and taking into account (1) common sense,(2) other models, (3) experience of previous events - how it normally functions.

You're likely to see weak signals for a week or two then see it strengthening in phase 2 / 3 soon afterwards smile
Posted by: mjoprincess

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 21/03/2007 10:43

Notice the sit rep does not state Phase 7, it says consistent with Phase 7 - a subjective assessment.
When the Phase is in or near the centre circle the index is having trouble 'seeing' the MJO.
Thats because the tropics is s busy place for convection, & even though the MJO has distinctive characteristics, it can still be hard to 'pull' out of the background noise.
It pays to be cautious when the MJO pops out of the middle, behind itself. Anti-clockwise, erratic movements indicate somehting else is being picked up laong wih MJO.

Signal strength- ok; that does indicate MJO strength but not the strength of the impact (on rainfall, the monsoon etc)
Posted by: Willow

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 21/03/2007 12:38

Thanks mjoprincess. Just when I'm begining to think mjo is short for Mumbo Jumbo you explained it's movement well. Keep up the commentary on this exciting aspect of weather watching.
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 27/03/2007 07:04

the MJO has popped out in phase 6 this morning
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 27/03/2007 16:06

The Current Situation Report on the MJO has been released today, and states that the MJO will remain inactive north of Australia until the next active phase due mid April - the mid-April active phase being the last chance for MJO induced monsoon activity for the current season.
http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/sitrep.asp
Posted by: Windee

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 27/03/2007 16:31

Hmmm, mid April, some pesimistic fool from Rocky was saying that a couple of weeks back.??

Anyway, I hope some precip falls as a result of that MJO stage, but wont be holding my breath at all.
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 02/04/2007 07:14

MJO now in phase 7 in a weakened mode
Posted by: Madmax

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 02/04/2007 13:24

MOJO still has abit of kick left in it

AT 010600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JAYA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0S 59.2E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION,
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS GUSTING TO 115 KNOTS.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 03/04/2007 09:33

As the MJO is currently over the Pacific Ocean (Phase 7 - and looks to be just about finished), it would not be the cause of the Tropical Cyclone development in the western Indian Ocean.
It is possible that the increased tropical activity in that region may indicate the beginnings of a new MJO cycle (starting from phases 1 and 2 again).
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 04/04/2007 07:18

the MJO has gone back into hiding finally, lets hope it heads towards phase 1 or 2 and moves across us with one final blow
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 05/04/2007 10:16

MJO back in phase 7 still weak thou
Posted by: KevD

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 05/04/2007 10:27

MJO Princess - would love your thoughts on what happened recently to the MJO - did it really sit in pahe 5 & 6 for as long as the spider seems to show it did? If so what caused that unusual movement?
Posted by: Willow

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 05/04/2007 23:53

I think the inner circle on the spider chart could probably be increased in size a little and when the mjo is inside it no position should be recorded. Sort of a black hole. That would stop the temptation to make predictions based on readings that are far too weak to be considered even remotely accurate.
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 06/04/2007 06:40

MJO is is phase 8 now
Posted by: Brian & Abby

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 06/04/2007 09:04

I think forget the m.j.o and use your eyes
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 11/04/2007 11:39

Well the MJO is back in phase one ready for one last run for this season. It's due to affect Northern Australia between the 20-25 April (see latest sitrep report):

http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/sitrep.asp

This is obviously the last throw of the dice. Let's hope the 'Fat Controller' doesn't activate the catch points and derail this 'MJO Train' like the last one, but switches it to the long disused SE branch line down the coast of Queensland where it will terminate at the SEQ terminus. :evillaugh:
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 11/04/2007 12:50

The MJO, of course, does continue to exist at all times of the year, including during winter months .. it just is not as likely to have much impact on Australian rainfall then as in the summer. The expected active phase later this month, although being the last throw of the dice to assist in any possible return of the monsoon, is by no means certain or even likely to do that ... that is not to say that it won't have some beneficial effects on rainfall for us though.

Just looking at the latest Weekly Tropical Climate Note, the BoM do not seem to be very optimistic about the chances of the MJO causing any widespread resurgence in the monsoon, implying that it is probably too late in the season for that. They do mention that tropical cyclones are still possible, even outside the MJO's active window. The chances of those must be declining, though, as the days and weeks go by - last year's late April TC Monica was rather exceptional.

All this, of course, doesn't rule out the possibility that the MJO may help to induce rainfall events in some of the regions. One thing that should happen with the MJO is a fall in pressure along the north Australian coast, causing a rise in the SOI, perhaps even a sharp rise depending on what tropical lows may affect the Darwin area. Often a sharp rise in the SOI seems to coincide with rainfall events in eastern Australia about that time or shortly afterwards ...
For it to affect SE Qld would seem to require a combination of favourable synoptic situations ... at this time of the year, one could hardly expect the monsoon trough to extend all the way down to southern Qld! .. perhaps an east coast low could develop at the time, though - let's hope so!

Just quoting the last paragraphof the tropical climate note:
"A relatively inactive period of the MJO is expected to continue over northern Australia, at least for the next week or so. Hence the possibility of a broadscale monsoon event re-establishing over northern Australia this wet season is now quite remote. Nonetheless, tropical cyclones can form outside of the active-MJO window, and the potential for tropical cyclone genesis remains."
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 11/04/2007 15:27

RN, I hope you didn't miss the satirical tone of my previous post. I could not possibly be serious about the monsoon trough extending as far south as Brisbane at this time of the year; hence the 'long disused SE branch line' allusion and the 'evil laugh'. I think the last time we had a 'monsoon train' down this neck of the woods was the Brisbane flood of '74. However, yes, a rogue ECL would be nice. smile
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 11/04/2007 15:47

What happened to the ENSO wrap up? Its been saying for the last 2 weeks that the next update was due today, now all of a sudden its April 25?? confused
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 11/04/2007 20:22

Yeah RD BOM have suddenly decided to put it off for another 2 weeks not exactly sure why
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 13/04/2007 07:04

the MJO is in no phase atm
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 25/04/2007 10:22

Here is an extract from the latest situation report (24/4/07). Whilst there is the mention of an active phase late April (not much left of April), realistically, it does state that there is little hope of a renewed active monsoon for the rest of this season. Indeed. However, with this long wave trough passing to the south of the continent, just fantasise for a moment if there were an active monsoon trough dipping down to interact with the LWT. Oh, on what fantasies we burn with desparation!

Quote:
Current Situation
The MJO will be inactive to the north of Australia until the next passage of the MJO - late April . Northern Australia received widespread rain during the last MJO, and from the associated monsoon trough, however, this did not push very far south.

The passage of the MJO is also associated with green season (green break, green shoulder) and wet season onset in Northern Australia. There seems little chance of a last MJO induced burst of monsoonal activity for the 06-07 summer wet season.
(My bold)
Posted by: Mick10

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 25/04/2007 12:51

those fantasies might have to wait until next season sorry IW, but what a generally say wet season it was, will go down in history as an average season overall, but only thanks to two weeks frown
Posted by: Matt Pearce

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 25/04/2007 13:08

Yeah it certainly was a pretty quiet wet season, but I guess that was to be expected all things considered...although I guess everything is now pointing towards a much more active 2007/08 wet season smile
Posted by: mjoprincess

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 26/04/2007 10:24

RN 'during winter months .. it just is not as likely to have much impact on Australian rainfall then as in the summer.'

Depends where you live in Australia !
While the tropics enjoy a near direct MJO impact during the summer, the southern grains regions in NSW, Vic, SA and WA get extensive winter MJO impacts: luckily for Australia's wheat crop
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 26/04/2007 11:24

Thanks for that clarification, mjoprincess. Your input is very welcome, as always.
I guess I was mainly thinking about the MJO impact in the tropics - because I live in the tropics!
Just looking at the sat pics, it seems that some of the southern wheat crop regions may be just about to get some much needed rain ... and hopefully more with the upcoming MJO events.
Just wondering, though, whether all the moisture currently streaming across the country is already indicative of the next MJO event or whether it is too soon for that?
Posted by: adon

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 26/04/2007 12:54

Quote:
Originally posted by mjoprincess:
RN 'during winter months .. it just is not as likely to have much impact on Australian rainfall then as in the summer.'

Depends where you live in Australia !
While the tropics enjoy a near direct MJO impact during the summer, the southern grains regions in NSW, Vic, SA and WA get extensive winter MJO impacts: luckily for Australia's wheat crop
Sorry to but in but being a "mexican" wheat grower would you mind explaining how the MJO in winter efects us? If you like you could PM me with that info so not to get of topic for the tropics! Hey that rymes! laugh
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 26/04/2007 14:58

No MJO anywhere of any strength at all at present, just a bit of a jumble really!
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/OLR_modes/h.6.ALL.S.html
It is the passage of an Indian Ocean to Western Part of Australia Upper Level Trough that is bringing this current rain to the South.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest_D.pl?IDCODE=IDX0008
And the moisture is feeding in from Indian Ocean Area as well as the ULT/Jetsream lift of surface moisture across western half of Australia.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDX1274.shtml
Posted by: mjoprincess

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 27/04/2007 08:52

RN The convective system over western Indonesia is probably the MJO, even thought the RMM Index can't pick the MJO out (my personal subjective opinion, note I do not say a phase!). The moisture streaming over the southern part of the continent - the speed and timing of the upper level trough, and moisture available from the Indian Ocean to feed into said trough, is influenced by the location of the MJO.

adon - The MJO is associated the enhanced probabilities of rainfall throughout the cropping regions during Phases 5-6 in the winter, & drier conditions Phases 1-4. So, at Birchip for example, you could expect your 'normal' winter rains, and westerly winds Phases 1-4, and expect a trough/ cold frontal system adding moisture Phases 5-6, and then the moisture moving east/ rainfall decrasing back to slightly drier Phases 1-4 etc etc etc
Posted by: babichacha

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 30/04/2007 12:15

MJO phase is now at phase three after being unidentifiable for some time. Will this have any major effect on current tropical weather (now that the official dry season starts tomorrow) or will the major effect be felt by those in the south of the continent?
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 20/05/2007 06:58

MJO is come back out in phase 7 now
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 24/05/2007 18:50

The MJO is now in phase 8.
http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/index.asp

The next active phase for the Australian region is expected around mid-June.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 24/05/2007 19:09

Gday guys just wondering wouldn't it have no affect whatsoever on the Australian tropics this time of the year anyway? Or am I Wrong? I have read it makes the trade winds stronger when it is in phase 4-6 in the dry season that true?
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 25/05/2007 07:42

Although the MJO affects the Australian tropics mainly during summer, it apparently can have some influence on rainfall at any time of the year. Also its influence is felt not only in the tropics but in other parts of the country as well (as mjoprincess mentioned earlier in this thread).
The influence on pre-planting rains for the wheat belt areas is covered here:
http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/sitrep.asp
I am not sure whether the MJO can cause the trade winds to be stronger.
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 25/05/2007 11:14

Thanks RN
Posted by: BD (Bucketing Down)

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 25/05/2007 11:48

All MJOs since early January 2007 have been all very disjointed and unconvincing imo...see link below!

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/OLR_modes/h.6.ALL.WEQ.html
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 26/05/2007 22:43

what is the MJO lol i have been wondering for a long time smile
Posted by: Yabbra

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 26/05/2007 22:45

google it easier to find out that way.. wink
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 29/05/2007 19:32

Quote:
Originally posted by Rainy Night:
Although the MJO affects the Australian tropics mainly during summer, it apparently can have some influence on rainfall at any time of the year. Also its influence is felt not only in the tropics but in other parts of the country as well (as mjoprincess mentioned earlier in this thread).
The influence on pre-planting rains for the wheat belt areas is covered here:
http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/sitrep.asp
I am not sure whether the MJO can cause the trade winds to be stronger.
Taken from "Weekly tropical climate note"

Over recent days, an area of enhanced convection has been observed in the near-equatorial central Indian Ocean, perhaps indicative of a renewed active MJO phase developing there. The India Meteorological Department has declared onset of the summer monsoon over southern parts of India. Typical impact over northern Australia during the developing phase of the MJO in this region is for a bias toward enhanced easterly trade winds for a period of a couple of weeks or so, until the convective phase of the oscillation reaches or passes Australian longitudes.

I Wasn't sure but I guess that confirms it?
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 30/05/2007 12:48

Yes, the trade winds are currently being enhanced by high pressure over New Zealand/Tasman Sea, which seems to be typical of a developing MJO (Phases 1-2) as we have now.
The moist easterly flow and some showers should be maintained along the eastern seaboard for a while. The MJO is predicted to reach phases 4-5-6 during June which can bring some enchancement of rainfall for Australia even in winter.

There is a new Current Situation Report on the MJO from Lexie Donald out today:
http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/sitrep.asp
Extract from the report:
"The MJO signal indicates initiation of a new active MJO phase. This bodes well for the onset of the Indian summer monsoon, with the northern limit of the monsoon now perched over southern India (http://www.imd.ernet.in/section/nhac/dynamic/mon-prog.htm). The timing of this MJO coincides nicely with Indian Monsoon where onset can expected from June. The MJO is due north of Australia (Phase 4)in around 10-17 days.
During winter Phases 5 and 6 are associated with positive rainfall anomalies over the eastern Grain growing regions. For the western grain growing region< winter rainfall is enhanced during MJO Phases 6, 7 and 8."
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 12/06/2007 14:49

Goodness! Has anyone noticed the last few runs of GFS, and, indeed, the last run of EC? Next week is looking decidedly monsoonal for this time of the year. I wonder if it has anything to do with the fact that the MJO should be in phases 4-5 by next week? Huge totals off Gove progged and even off the east tropical coast of Queensland! What is going on? Is it the dry season or the 'silly' season? confused
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 13/06/2007 06:47

The latest situation report indicates the MJO will be in phase 4 over northern Australia within 7-10 days.

http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/sitrep.asp
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 13/06/2007 08:37

Activity predicted by the models for northern Australia in the next week has nothing to do with a monsoon, but would be caused by a series of upper level troughs. Surface winds will be the usual south-easterlies in the Australian tropics. Some tropical convection over waters to the north of the country is not unknown at any time of the year, and, yes it is quite likely to due to the MJO approaching phases 4-5 during the next week or so. This gives hope for some further useful rainfall, but exactly where it will fall depends on the evolvement of the upper level systems.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 13/06/2007 11:52

Lighten up RN. A blind man can see he was joking in his reference to the monsoon. It is however a potential rain event that is forming under a similar system. Nth west meets sth east.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 13/06/2007 13:02

Well the MJO is getting close to Phase 3, though not particularly strong. We have a NW cloud band starting up again ... and yes, as long as those keep developing and the SE trades are there as well, there is potential for more useful rain events over the coming weeks.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 13/06/2007 22:28

Rain at this time of year can be of major benefit heading into spring. I recall good rains (by winter standards) in July about 10 years ago. With the high cloud thrown in, the BoM's forecast of a "Dull" day tomorrow is spot on. Let's hope it isn't in vain and we do get the rains that some models are forecasting.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 13/06/2007 22:57

Sorry, I meant to say monsoonalesque! wink
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 19/06/2007 09:14

The MJO has entered phase 4 and appears to be strengthening. Interesting prospects for additional rain for SE Australia.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 21/06/2007 08:22

The MJO is still showing a strong signal in Phase 4, and getting near to Phase 5.
I think that the currently active MJO to the north of Australia has been at least partly responsible for the moist NW inflow in the upper levels and the current rainfall event over the NT and north and central Qld. Although the MJO typically affects the Indian and SE Asian monsoon at this time of the year, its influence seems to have encroached on N. Australia as well during the current strong phase.
The enhanced rainfall prospects that the models indicate for eastern Australia during the next week seems to be in keeping with the movement of an active MJO into phases 5 and 6.
Posted by: desert storm

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 22/07/2007 22:34

I have noticed the MJO is in Phase 1, How long do each phase's last

Desert Storm
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 23/07/2007 15:44

Well, the MJO has been in Phase 1 for a few days up to last report on 21 July, and should be in Phase 2 today or tomorrow.
The length of time of each phase varies varies, but since the complete cycle of 8 phases is 30-40 days, it would average 4-5 days .... this seems to be in keeping with the forecast that it will be approaching Australian longtitudes (Phases 4-5) by early August.
Posted by: desert storm

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 23/07/2007 23:08

Thanks Rainy Night, Would phase 4-5 be good for australia in terms of increased chance of rainfall.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 24/07/2007 17:36

Yes, the MJO phases 4-5 often coincide with rainfall events in Australia ... though the amount of the rainfall varies. The most recent Phases 4-5 were in June when there was a series of upper troughs and NW cloud bands that brought good rain to parts of NT and Qld.
Posted by: desert storm

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 25/07/2007 00:17

Thanks Rainy Night for the info.

Desert Storm
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 25/07/2007 08:06

i see the MJO has popped into phase 2 according to the chart I dont really know much about how the MJO effects rainfall in austrailia during the winter months.
Posted by: Steven

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 30/07/2007 21:20

Extended GFS is suggesting significant rainfall over SE Qld on Aug 9th/10th. Is this coinciding with the MJO (Phase 4 maybe) ?

Steven
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 31/07/2007 08:47

According to the MJO page the signal is too low at the moment to accurately determine the phase, though the graph indicates a possible weak Phase 3. The current tropical activity in the Indian Ocean seems to be consistent with Phase 3, and Phase 4 would probably be expected in the second week of August. Extended GFS predictions have been all over the place lately, changing backwards and forwards with each model run, but generally speaking, yes I think there is a reasonable chance of a rain event for SE Qld/eastern NSW assisted by the MJO towards mid August.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 31/07/2007 12:16

can hope so RN, getting even more serious down there now, really hope SE Qld get a ripper spring, i will be in brisvegas from august 17th.
Posted by: Andy Double U

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 31/07/2007 14:12

I am pretty sure that the latest long paddock writeup in the Country Life mentioned August 10-12 for the next passage of the MJO. I'll have to double check it though.

My own preference is for something seasonal to happen. Have the first couple of weeks in September nice and dry before kicking off into the storm season before a nice little TC parks its butt off the coast at around Fraser and dumps rain on us at around Mid March or so. If the weather gods can line that up for me, I'll be a happy chappy laugh
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 01/08/2007 08:54

Quote:
Originally posted by Humulous:
I am pretty sure that the latest long paddock writeup in the Country Life mentioned August 10-12 for the next passage of the MJO. I'll have to double check it though.

My own preference is for something seasonal to happen. Have the first couple of weeks in September nice and dry before kicking off into the storm season before a nice little TC parks its butt off the coast at around Fraser and dumps rain on us at around Mid March or so. If the weather gods can line that up for me, I'll be a happy chappy laugh
If only!!! But seriously this coming summer is the real crunch time for SE Qld, if we miss out on rain again we are stuffed.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 01/08/2007 18:10

From the MJO current situation report issued today:
"Current Situation
There appears to be a weak MJO signal in the western Indonesian region (90-110oEast). Australia could expect winter Phase 4-6 signals over the next fortnight, which includes improved chances over rainfall over the south-eastern grain growing regions during Phases 5 and 6. For the western grain growing region winter rainfall is enhanced during MJO Phases 6, 7 and 8."
http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/sitrep.asp
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/08/2007 11:03

Gday guys any news of the MJO and what stage it's at? Last I heard was meant to get into stage 4-5 1st or 2nd week of August is that still on track?
Posted by: Mick10

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/08/2007 11:23

according to
http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/index.asp
there is no phase atm, has been less 1 since 27th july.
http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.gif
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/08/2007 11:32

Thanks Mick
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/08/2007 15:02

Yes, the MJO has weakened over the past 2 weeks. Some additional information on that is here:
http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/sitrep.asp
Posted by: Andy Double U

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/08/2007 18:29

That's an awful long between phases Mick wink :p
Posted by: Mick10

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/08/2007 20:11

Quote:
Originally posted by Humulous:
That's an awful long between phases Mick wink :p
doh!!! handy being a mod sometimes, can edit my mistakes laugh
Posted by: Andy Double U

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 08/08/2007 23:48

Just when I thought I had some leverage over a mod so I can proceed with my plans for world weather domination I am thwarted... back to the drawing board laugh :cheers:
Posted by: Mathew

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 13/08/2007 20:09

Hi everyone,

I am looking forward to this year coming up 2007/2008 Queensland Tropical Cyclone Season and Storms season.

I like to know When is the next MJO is going to develop out in the Queensland coral sea?

Cheers
Posted by: mjoprincess

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 15/08/2007 10:57

Hi Mathew

The MJO doesn't develop in the Coral Sea.
The MJO is an atmospheric phenomenon. It intiates over the Indian Ocean, and travels east.
This passage has been identified as a 8 Phases
( see http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/index.htm)
The passage of an MJO is associated with TC development.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 15/08/2007 11:14

The latest MJO situation report is interesting, indicating that a new MJO is already developing in the Indian Ocean and could be north of Australia within 7-14 days:
http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/sitrep.asp
Posted by: Brian & Abby

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 15/08/2007 12:05

Mathew knows what the M.J.O is .THINK HE WAS ASKING WHEN IT WILL BE IN THE CORAL SEA [ ATMOSPHERIC AREA TO BE EXACT]
Posted by: Mathew

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 15/08/2007 17:04

Quote:
Originally posted by mjoprincess:
Hi Mathew

The MJO doesn't develop in the Coral Sea.
The MJO is an atmospheric phenomenon. It intiates over the Indian Ocean, and travels east.
This passage has been identified as a 8 Phases
( see http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/index.htm)
The passage of an MJO is associated with TC development.
Hi mjoprincess,

Thank you so much for that update mjoprincess.

That is all I need to know mjoprincess.

Cheers
Posted by: adon

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 15/08/2007 18:21

Quote:
Originally posted by Rainy Night:
The latest MJO situation report is interesting, indicating that a new MJO is already developing in the Indian Ocean and could be north of Australia within 7-14 days:
http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/sitrep.asp
How long until we can tell if it is building or not? heaps of cloud in the Indian near sumatra ATM
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 15/08/2007 18:48

Last MJO was Mid June? thats 60 days ago or more is that normal for an MJO to come through after 60 days again? Seems little long for me
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 15/08/2007 21:09

Ir's also called the 30-60 day wave so yes 60 days is sometimes the spacing between cycles.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 15/08/2007 21:10

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap12/mjo.html
Posted by: mjoprincess

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 16/08/2007 08:33

Runoff: although the RMM index couldn't pick up the MJO I'd suggest the last one (north of Aus) was late July http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/OLR_modes/h.6.ALL.EQ.html
Sorry Mathew: of course you knew all that. RMM Phase 6 would see MJO in the coral sea region, but as the ocean has a heat memory (slow to warm up, slow to cool down ) you might have to wait a few more MJO's for a TC (or you can get one without an MJO of course)
Posted by: mjoprincess

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 16/08/2007 08:36

sorry Runoff, I meant Johnno of course, I MUST NEED COFFEE
Posted by: adon

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 21/08/2007 00:01

MJO in stage 2 now

http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/index.asp
Posted by: adon

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 21/08/2007 22:46

Just updated and now they are unable to determine a phase. Bugger
Posted by: goldcoastandrew

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 29/08/2007 11:11

MJO back in to Phase 2 as of 27/08/07
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 09/09/2007 11:32

MJ0 in phase 4 now hmm interesting
Posted by: Squid

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 12/09/2007 06:42

MJO about to come out in phase 5 and it appears to be getting stronger
Posted by: inversion

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 12/09/2007 13:54

Yes it is in phase 5. Where is the southern extent of it? How much is it going to improve the chances of tropical moisture inflows into Australia? It seems like the cool sea surface temperature anomaly across northern Aust might be buffering any of this activity from getting further south. It's obviously still dry season though.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 12/09/2007 16:24

With the MJO in Phase 5 at this time of the year, the main effect is in the northern hemisphere perhaps extending to islands north of Australia (Indonesia and New Guinea). While the MJO temporarily reduces the strength of the SE trades it doesn't usually have much impact on rainfall for northern Australia around this time, currently of course being still in our dry season. Enchancement of N. Australian rainfall would usually only start after there is some cross-equatorial flow established, probably from October onwards.
The MJO does sometimes have some effect on the timing of rainfall events in SE Australia, though, probably because the weakening SE trades coincide with troughs/fronts moving through.
The following extract from the BoM weekly tropical climate note is interesting:
"In periods like the present, with an active phase of the MJO focussed over the Maritime Continent [including longitudes of northern Australia], and the subsequent couple of weeks, there is a reduced tendency of strong southeast trade wind flow over northern Australia. Occasionally active phases can increase the chance of rain events over northern Australia, but more often have little impact at this time of year. With an active phase over Australian longitudes now, it would be unlikely to see another affecting northern Australia before the middle of October. An active phase in middle to late October would bring with it an increased probability of precipitation events, particularly over north and eastern tropical regions."
Posted by: Pacman

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 24/09/2007 12:11

It looks as though there may be a late start to the North Australian monsoon season with a prolonged Indian Monsoon season on the cards.
The climatic norm dates for withdrawal from the indian Subcontinent (Sept 1) has not begun-

Monsoon launches itself into end-season heroics -
Vinson Kurian


Thiruvananthapuram, Sept 23 The southwest monsoon has literally aborted the countdown for exiting the landmass and is busy rustling up another wave of rainfall from the mid-south that will sashay across the dry north and northwest India.

Indications are that the rains could spill over into October, with the drone from the Bay of Bengal ‘powerhouse’ peaking once again by the middle of this week throwing up another cyclonic circulation.

Meanwhile on Saturday, the well marked ‘low’ prowling northwest Bay of Bengal intensified into a depression and crossed the Orissa coast near Puri. The system has since moved northwest and lay centred on Sunday over interior Orissa.

NORTHWEST TRACK


It is expected to crease out a north-northwesterly course to move into the plains of north India. This could be the first instance of `a well-behaved monsoon ‘low’ choosing this path for lateral movement. A flurry of ‘low’s crossing into the land till now in the season had stubbornly kept a west-northwest track pummelling central and west India with torrents to near-exclusion of the north and northwest.

The north-northwesterly movement of the present system will bring widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls over interior Orissa, Chhattisgarh and east Madhya Pradesh during the next 48 hours.

INTERACTION AWAITED


Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over coastal Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal, east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand. The upshot is the interaction that the system will progressively set up with an itinerant western disturbance dipping unusually low to the south.

It will thus have powered welcome rains into the north and the northwest, but too late in the season to make much impression on accumulated rain deficit in chronically affected areas. Interactions between monsoon easterlies and western disturbances set up seasonal rain for these regions, but these have been far and few between thus far during this season.

ARABIAN SEA BUZZ


On the west coast, a smaller weather system with pretensions of a monsoon `low’ has been patrolling the northeast Arabian Sea for some time now. But the domineering presence of the Bay depression to the east will prevent it from intensifying further.

Instead, it is likely that it would merge into the massive western disturbance to help drive up rainfall from Gujarat-Konkan to a north-northeast direction extending to western Himalayas. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already forecast widespread to fairly widespread rainfall for north and northwest India through the middle of this week.

According to IMD, the current meteorological analysis suggested fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Konkan, Goa, madhya Maharashtra and south Gujarat during the next two days. There is no sparing Mumbai either.

To the east, rain/thundershowers are likely at most places over interior Orissa and at many places over coastal Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, East Uttar Pradesh. North coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana too will get good rainfall.
Posted by: adon

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 11/10/2007 22:59

MJO in stage 7
Thought it died a couple of weeks ago

http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/index.asp
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 12/10/2007 10:46

The latest update has the MJO in Phase 8, so this would be the tail-end of its recent passage.
The MJO signal has been rather weak for the past couple of weeks (fairly typical for this time of year ..)
A new MJO event starting with Phase 1 would be expected to develop in the next few days ... probably approaching the Australian region (Phases 4-5) near the end of October.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 12/10/2007 11:26

Its good to see that the MJO is well out of our (Australian) area but the SOI is remaining consistently positive. Hopefully this means the SOI will continue to rise once the MJO has an influence on Australia in the next couple of weeks.
Posted by: mjoprincess

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 16/10/2007 14:49

If you have bookmarked apsru/mjo sitreps then pleae note these have moved to a blogspot (one of the I.T. guys got excited......)

http://mjositrep.blogspot.com/
Posted by: bogong

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 16/10/2007 17:03

Thanks MJO Princess. All of us southerners are taking a great amount of interest in the MJO these days.

It looks like getting some type of tropical spin-off is the about the only mechanism left to provide some precipitation these days - given the failure of all the usual mid-latitude systems to deliver anything of consequence.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: MJO/Monsoon discussion thread 2006/2007 - 18/10/2007 09:13

thread closed.
refer to 07/08 seasonal thread
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=12;t=000570