Top End NT Wet Season - March 2019

Posted by: Raindammit

Top End NT Wet Season - March 2019 - 01/03/2019 17:35

Discussion continues.
Posted by: crikey

Re: Top End NT Wet Season - March 2019 - 31/03/2019 20:24

Tropical low possible INVEST.First week of April 2019 .
Chance of some later season rain. ACCr forecast

Flaring convection in association with this emerging low is NW of the GOC

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
Posted by: vorts

Re: Top End NT Wet Season - March 2019 - 29/04/2019 09:09

Conditions are expected to become favorable for the monsoon trough to return to the Arafura Sea and Timor Sea late this week. A tropical low can develop within this trough toward the weekend.

Posted by: crikey

Re: Top End NT Wet Season - March 2019 - 29/04/2019 16:49

There is a decent TC in the Indian ocean currently 29th April 2019
Snap from michael ventrice twitter account(weathercompany)
TC LORNA
https://twitter.com/i/status/1122280464348217345
which he found from CIMMS twitter account
https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1122280464348217345

Posted by: vorts

Re: Top End NT Wet Season - March 2019 - 30/04/2019 15:51

Originally Posted By: vorts
Conditions are expected to become favorable for the monsoon trough to return to the Arafura Sea and Timor Sea late this week. A tropical low can develop within this trough toward the weekend.









EPS ens thinks a low may form and drift sw.



Projected EPS ens tracks.




GFS thinks a storm in the Timor.


So yeah there is model support atm.
Posted by: crikey

Re: Top End NT Wet Season - March 2019 - 30/04/2019 18:41

There is a lot of convection north of Darwin atm. Surface wind profile shows a weak low surface rotation .Weak NW infeed with stronger SE inflow.I think the cloud transfer south of this area is referred to as upper wind shear

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
Posted by: vorts

Re: Top End NT Wet Season - March 2019 - 01/05/2019 18:57

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/

Weekly Tropical Climate Note
30 April 2019 Next issue 7 May 2019

Late wet season tropical activity for northern Australia
A monsoon trough is expected to develop across the Indonesian archipelago and Arafura Sea this week. While the monsoon trough is not expected to extend as far south as Australia, some associated rainfall is likely to fall across parts of Australia's far north in the coming week. This is late in the season for this to happen, as dry season conditions are typically becoming established at this time of the year. With an active monsoon trough developing there is also an increased risk of tropical low or cyclone development in Australian waters, though current weather models do not indicate tropical cyclone formation in the Australian region in the coming week.
Posted by: vorts

Re: Top End NT Wet Season - March 2019 - 02/05/2019 18:10

the lpa is there, lets see if the shear backs off and the model can verify.
93S INVEST 190502 0000 6.0S 133.0E SHEM 15 0




Posted by: crikey

Re: Top End NT Wet Season - March 2019 - 02/05/2019 18:41

ACCESSg not keen at all on an invest above the top end.
ACC forecast takes out the top end circulation with a blast of surface easterlies.
ACC is on board with the coral low but is keeping it intensifying in the fiji area of responsibility with a southern track to the islands. Might make a TC but very likely an intense tropical storm
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View