Early Start to Monsoon?

Posted by: Inclement Weather

Early Start to Monsoon? - 23/10/2006 20:46

Well, there's been a lot of talk about the unusual amount of moisture floating around up north at the moment. With STC Xavier hovering away; a disturbance at 5S 160E that Fiji is keeping an eye on; and now a convection explosion over PNG. What is going on? Is this all part of a developing MT? Probably not, but it's certainly unusual for this time of year. Any thoughts?

I thought I would start this thread to consolidate WA, NT, and Qld discussion on this possible early occurrence.

Here's a sample of a discussion between Raindammit and Seaweed from the TC Xavier thread to get things going:

quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by seaweed:
Two questions, is this cyclone lying on a developing monsoon trough or is it a standalone system? If it is on a weak MT, is it possible for the decaying system to drag the MT lower for a bout of early wet season rain?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Was thinking the same thing myself seaweed, I don't think its attached to the Monsoon trough as such (correct me if I'm wrong), but the BOM do mention the cyclone being linked to a 'trough' in their high seas forecast:

'Tropical Cyclone Xavier [centre 970hPa] was located near 11.0S167.8E. Forecast
positions are near 11.5S167.1E at 230600UTC and 12.0S166.6E at 231800UTC. Trough
extends from Eq150E to Xavier.'
Posted by: Pacman

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 24/10/2006 06:22

I think you'll find that it isn't the monsoon trough that is playing its part in the formation of Xavier.
To me it seems Xavier has formed along the rather active SITCZ, which has been unusually active for most of the year now.
Posted by: E-J

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 24/10/2006 10:26

Correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't the SITCZ exist between 8S to 2S and 130W to 90W
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 24/10/2006 10:41

The South Pacific (inter-tropical) convergence zone exists at similar latitudes on our side of the date-line as well (between the Solomon sea and Fiji area). You will find reference to it in the South West Pacific Marine forecast on the Fiji Met site. It has been there for most of this year, but its presence doesn't always indicate an active monsoon. So it is correct to say that a monsoon has not played a part in the formation of Xavier. It may be that tropical cyclone activity in that area could help to induce the monsoon over PNG and areas east of PNG, but perhaps it is too early for that yet.
Posted by: windjammer

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 24/10/2006 10:41

BOM are predicting a renewed phase of MJO within the next week or 2. I'm fairly new to all this, but it seem that as convection increases in the Indian ocean and travels eastwards, it triggers an active monsoon trough. Are we possibly seeing a renewed phase of the MJO a little earlier than predicted?
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 24/10/2006 10:49

MJO
Madden-Julian Oscillation- Tropical rainfall exhibits strong variability on time scales shorter than the seasonal El Niņo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These fluctuations in tropical rainfall often go through an entire cycle in 30-60 days, and are referred to as the Madden-Julian Oscillation or intraseasonal oscillations. The intraseasonal oscillations are a naturally occurring component of our coupled ocean-atmosphere system. ...
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 24/10/2006 10:52

The enhanced convection around the SW Pacific and PNG has evidently been due to something other than the MJO. As at 22 October, the MJO was only in Phase 1.
http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/index.asp

The BoM weekly tropical climate note is due to be updated this afternoon, and may shed some further light on this matter.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 27/10/2006 11:07

MJO is now in phase 2 so it should be in phase 4 by early to mid November. Phases 4 - 7 have the most impact on rainfall in the tropics during the summer months. My guess that this coming MJO will help kickstart storm activity over the tropics, but its the next MJO which will be due by late December which *should* herald the beginning of the wet season proper.
:cheers:

Posted by: Madmax

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 19/11/2006 17:52

Monsoon trough is attached to the low in the coral sea.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 20/11/2006 22:18

MJO is now in phase 2 - the second time in a month. (See above) The first time it obviously came a cropper.
Posted by: windjammer

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 20/11/2006 22:26

Isn't that a bit bizzare? I thought MJO periodicity was generally 30 - 40 days.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 20/11/2006 23:06

The periodicity of 30-40 days is just an average. The recent MJO events have been quite weak, and it seems that when a weak one runs out of puff before completing its cycle, another one sometimes takes its place rather quickly.
Posted by: Madmax

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 21/11/2006 21:07

""Convection again increased in the equatorial Indian Ocean on the 8th November and progressed eastwards during last week. Though the progress of this signal is uncertain, it appears that the Maritime Continent and the western Pacific will see enhanced convection resulting from this active MJO within the next one to two weeks or so.

If this progression would see the regime of enhanced convection reach Australian longitudes, it will be too early for the onset of monsoon over Northern Australia.""

Have a look at whats going on 150-180 east 0-10 south, early monsoon already.
Posted by: windjammer

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 21/11/2006 21:33

Yes, but not for Northern Australia. Someone will probably correct me, because I am a rank amateur at this stuff, but I thought warmer SST's over the central pacific produced enhanced convection in this area, but el nino conditions usually supressed monsoonal conditions over the Coral sea, and Northern Australia, in general. Can someone elaborate further?
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 23/11/2006 13:35

It seems the MJO is almost in Phase three.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 23/11/2006 13:51

Quote:
but I thought warmer SST's over the central pacific produced enhanced convection in this area, but el nino conditions usually supressed monsoonal conditions over the Coral sea, and Northern Australia, in general. Can someone elaborate further?
If the central pacific is warmer (elnino), then obviously it will hog all the convection and leave us with higher than average pressure over aust leading to lower convection. If the central pacific was cooler than avg as it is warmer (la nina), and the SSTs around the tropical aust region were in the range of say 28-34C then one would expect a strong, solid and lengthy monsoon. Last decent monsoon was 2001/2002 if i remember correctly.. At the moment were in a strengthening elnino phase and this will mean much lower than average convection over the tropics here and my gut feeling says this years monsoon will be very weak (if it even arrives)..
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 23/11/2006 14:09

The effect of an el nino on the monsoon in northern Australia is highly variable as shown by records of events in the last 30 years. Generally, the main effect in Australia is less than average spring and early summer rainfall, and the effects are usually more pronounced in central, southern and south-eastern Australia than in the north. The el nino summer of 1997/98 is one example where most of the Northern Territory actually had a wetter than average wet season with prolonged periods of heavy rainfall and the disastrous flooding at places like Katherine. During the same event, much of north Qld also had a wet summer, including the record rainfall and flooding in the Townville area in January 1998. Every event is different in its effects in Australia, and there are often periods of unexpected good rainfall in some areas.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 23/11/2006 14:50

Statistically, the tropics are not overly affected by El-Nino during the wet season, except for the eastern CYP north from about Innisfail. Even then the deficiencies aren't too bad:

Summer Rainfall during El-Nino:




Contrast this to a La-Nina year where the affect on our rainfall is much more noticable!

Summer Rainfall during La-Nina:

Posted by: alby_14

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 23/11/2006 20:01

Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
Quote:
Last decent monsoon was 2001/2002 if i remember correctly..
Gday Bokkey, last year was a ripper across most of the tropics. Significant flooding along the Victoria, Adelaide, Katherine and Daly Rivers and various creeks in the Tanami occurred! TC Monica finished it off in style, giving alot of areas an extra top up late in the season.





Cheers
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 29/11/2006 07:01

MJO is in Phase 4. It's a cause for optimism as the experimental site indicates:

Quote:
[i]n early February 2004 the MJO phase 4 was associated with substantial rains over much of Qld and northern NSW.
But I won't hold my breath.
Posted by: Pacman

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 09/12/2006 18:27

NT wet season to start next month
The weather bureau is predicting it will still be another month before the wet season truly gets under way in the Top End.

The statement comes despite last night's storms which produced up to 19 millimetres of rain across parts of the Northern Territory.

The bureau's senior forecaster, Ian Robinson, says Territorians will have to wait until next year for monsoonal conditions.

"No, it's not the break," he said.

"No, this is just the general build up pattern of this isolated storm and shower activity that comes and goes from day-to-day.

"We're not expecting any real monsoonal conditions until early next year."
Posted by: Madmax

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 09/12/2006 21:29

Starting to look suspicious
Satellite image
Posted by: Squid

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 09/12/2006 21:33

I was thinking the same thing today it seems to be all firing
Posted by: Madmax

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 09/12/2006 23:12

Quote:
Originally posted by Rainy Night:
Every event is different in its effects in Australia, and there are often periods of unexpected good rainfall in some areas.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 17/12/2006 11:58

I noticed a strong monsoon surge of up to 60km/h right down along the east coast of China flowing southwards. It could even strengthen further if a new typhoon emerges and moves towards vietnam. Wonder if this is a good sign for aust
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 17/12/2006 12:08

I think that late season typhoons in the northern hemisphere generally only slow the development of the northern Australian monsoon by interrupting the cross equatorial flow and ensuring that more moisture remains north of the equator.
Posted by: Pacman

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 17/12/2006 16:41

Quote:
Originally posted by Rainy Night:
I think that late season typhoons in the northern hemisphere generally only slow the development of the northern Australian monsoon by interrupting the cross equatorial flow and ensuring that more moisture remains north of the equator.
Yep this is so, i have seen developing systems near the solomons get sucked up into intensifying typhoons in the Nth West Pacific. Not good for us here if it keeps up.
Posted by: sugar mill tour guide

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 17/12/2006 16:43

sorry to change the subject. But someone could please turn the fan off. im want to go fishing next week. it looking really rubbish from thursday onwards
Posted by: Hakatere

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 17/12/2006 16:55

I think Thursday will be the peak of the winds Sugar,models have the ridge along the coast weakening from then on.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 17/12/2006 18:08

been a while since ive seen it this strong. The possible typhoon system has slightly eased, hopefully it doesnt disturb this frown

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest_fwo_loop.pl?IDCODE=IDYTX003.10M&number=2
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 17/12/2006 20:11

Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
been a while since ive seen it this strong. The possible typhoon system has slightly eased, hopefully it doesnt disturb this frown
i havent seen that chart before mate, obviously its wind directions, but does it all mean?
also, JTWC predict the depression to reach cat 3 on its way to the Phillipines, 3rd in 3weeks (?).
Posted by: Madmax

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 18/12/2006 00:44

Yeah going by these charts
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html
this sytem is going to dissipate rapidly after reachining Manila.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 19/12/2006 10:11

The current MJO is now in Phase 3. I wonder if it will make it all the way around this time? It's come a cropper the last two times. The last one got as far as phase 4 before disappearing.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 19/12/2006 12:54

it shoud usher in the monsoon shouldn't it?
Posted by: Madmax

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 23/12/2006 18:45

looks to be building of NW WA it is only 1-2 weeks early.

With the observed recent warming of the sea surface over the Indian Ocean west of Australia, suppression of convection may not be as much of a factor as in recent MJO events, and the next active MJO phase may well dictate the onset of monsoon over northern Australia. Over the last week or so convective activity has been above average in the central to eastern Indian Ocean, which is about 30 days after the previous occurrence. See: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.gif. When this active MJO phase has propagated eastward to Australian longitudes, it should provide the window of opportunity for MJO enhanced convection over northern Australia, possibly some time close to the New Year. There is sometimes a lag between the first signs of active MJO phase over northern Australia and actual monsoon onset, but this lag is quite variable. So it seems quite likely that northern Australia will see onset of monsoon conditions sometime from close to the New Year, to the first week or so of January.
Posted by: zoso-wx

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 23/12/2006 20:13

That is great in one way but geebus we haven't even had a strobeshow yet. Need at least a couple of weeks of them thanks laugh Not sure this first one will be overly strong, Feb will probably produce the best of this years rains after doing bugger all the 2 monsoons I've been here for. Not a prediction, just gut feeling smile

:cheers:
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 24/12/2006 02:38

It's been trying to build for a couple of weeks now. I reckon it will fire up with this next passage of the mjo and produce some much needed activity for most of us up here.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 24/12/2006 07:10

is the MJO still in phase 3?
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 24/12/2006 07:56

Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
is the MJO still in phase 3?
Yes squid and moving towards phase 4.

See here http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/index.asp
Posted by: Squid

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 24/12/2006 08:11

cheers for that link, can someple plz explain how to read the link?
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 24/12/2006 08:57

Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
cheers for that link, can someple plz explain how to read the link?
Click on the The 40 day Phase Diagram (Spiderweb) Green is for Novemeber and Blue is December the latest plot is for the 22nd and can clearly be seen in phase 3. If the plots fall within the circle then the phase is unknown.

Also click on the Current Phase and Explore Phases menu across the top for more information.

Cheers
HNW
Posted by: Squid

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 24/12/2006 09:02

thanks for the help Hot n wet :cheers:
Posted by: DamonW

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 24/12/2006 23:25

Let's hope we don't have any such devestation here once the monsoon hits, it's coming....

Floods devastate South-East AsiaFrom correspondents in Jakarta
December 24, 2006 10:39pm

NEARLY 70 people have been killed and 200,000 forced to flee their homes in flash floods that have swept through parts of Indonesia and Malaysia in the past week, officials said today.

In Indonesia, the death toll has risen to at least 61 and hundreds more remain missing after torrential rains battered the island of Sumatra.
Posted by: Madmax

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 25/12/2006 09:27

Moonson has descended, even bom though today was going to be fine day with a shower about now they have thrown a storm in the forecast

Forecast for Monday
An afternoon shower or storm about, mainly inland. Light to moderate northeast
winds before an afternoon northerly seabreeze.

Posted by: eternal rain

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 25/12/2006 15:06

Thats what happens every year Damon. Indonesia gets the flooding rains, but we never do in the lead up.. id love to be proved wrong though. Down here id take that flooding over these horrid dry conditions and drought any day! Thats my 2nd x-mas wish smile

btw extended EC goes for the first tropical cyclone in the indian ocean, has it making landfall around Dampier laugh . Hopefully it does and all that moisture is fed down south to give us a good soaking!
Posted by: Squid

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 25/12/2006 18:54

how do u know for sure when monsoonal conditions have arrived apart form rain of course.
Posted by: Madmax

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 25/12/2006 20:29

Posted by: Mick10

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 25/12/2006 20:43

i hope this is what u are after madmax, u can always just grap a paste of someones quote and bring it in here yourself in future, if its relevant of course smile

Quote:
Originally posted by Jacob:
Lovely pictures Broomecam! My mate Danny is there at the moment and sent me some phone MMS's yesterday, he said the power was cut out before the storm even started properly!

One could be forgiven for thinking monsoon has set in here in Darwin, everything is rolling in from the NNE, and last night the apparent change was spooky. Dropping a mate off to the airport the upper levels looked like stalling E'ly then changing to W'ly. Banding in the upper levels looked like something you'd see in the mid lats.. Then to wake to a lovely downpour just set it all off.

Currently the sounding shows a monsoon westerly regime, although the mid troposphere still shows the NE steer, albeit weak.. (hence things are still flowing in from the NE).

Personally dont think it will last more than today, Id expect squalls to be arriving from the E by tomorrow again, but this has certainly brought forth out moisture injection.. and much needed I must say!

happy holidays among the palm trees, humidity, lightning and relaxation...

Lets not forget what happened to home this time in 74... Hard to conceive the whole joint being demolished by a tropical super-storm with the smallest eye in the planet's history..

:cheers:
Posted by: Madmax

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 25/12/2006 20:44

Jacob looking at GFS it has this whole area swamped for the next week. Be good to see what MJO reading says.

Monsoon trough is basically a low prssure area forming over most of Northern Australia and above like this

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest.pl?IDCODE=IDX0016

Also central Asia should be covered by areas of High Pressure associated with cold temperatures.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 25/12/2006 22:03

(I posted this in the Top End Wet thread as well - it sort of belongs to both threads and I couldn't decide :-))

Noticing thunderstorms are being steered from the NW to the SE over the last few days. I'm not too sure about the climatology of NT and WA but if this was going on here in NQ and FNQ I'd say the monsoon is beginning to set in. Thunderstorm steering from the NW here in QLD is very uncommon north of about 15 south unless we have a major major upper trough system or more commonly the monsoon is setting in. I've noticed a trend in the last 7 days of thunderstorms in the NT and Northern WA beginning to show this NW steering pattern (previously they were showing very little steering trend or any steering was variable day to day) which as I said in FNQ is synonomous with the onset of the monsoon.

Interested to hear your thoughts up North and out west guys but I'm thinking if the monsoon hasn't just set in already (in a very weak mode mind you) it will do so over the next 5 or so days.
Posted by: eternal rain

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 25/12/2006 22:03

These strong highs down south will create better convergence zones over the tropics, so you might also get some interesting explosive convection and tropical cyclones winding up quickly when the monsoon arrives wink . Will be watching the tropics with interest in the next several weeks, love seeing those huge totals mounting up
Posted by: Johnoo

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 25/12/2006 22:17

I checked out the Wyndham radar in Northern WA and it has rain coming in from the NW but has convenctive showers and storms coming in from the NE until they lift and get caught in the rain band and move SE, now I may be wrong so correct me anyone smile but to me seems like a major upper trough system to me fed in from WA and the waters of WA where they are exceptionally warm at the moment feeding into this system but from what I have heard and read I would think the Monsoon trough will make an appearance in and around Australia very soon it isn't far away probably see signs of it towards the end of this week or weekend in the eastern Indian Ocean then in NT just after New years and onto QLD probably a fortnight from now. Once it starts in WA I am expecting 3 or 4 tropcial depressions/cyclones alone with this First MJO with those very warm waters sitting there at the moment off WA.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 25/12/2006 22:20

Quote:
Originally posted by Bokkey:
These strong highs down south will create better convergence zones over the tropics, so you might also get some interesting explosive convection and tropical cyclones winding up quickly when the monsoon arrives wink . Will be watching the tropics with interest in the next several weeks, love seeing those huge totals mounting up
I agree Bokkey. It won't take much to fire things up if these highs maintain their strength. Certainly starting to look better to the nth of Australia.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 25/12/2006 23:30

it sure is getting very interesting up there atm bring it on
Posted by: Madmax

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 25/12/2006 23:56

Have a look at this look off to the left the right looks pretty good to, that storm on the right is going fairly fast.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscolw.html
Posted by: Squid

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 27/12/2006 08:13

it sure is looking very interesting now
Posted by: Madmax

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 28/12/2006 21:43

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscolw.html

This topic should be changed to developing monsoon trough. There is two lows well to the west and one above the NT.

Low 1 : 106E 9S
" 2 : 112E 10S
" 3 : 135E 9S

Lots of turbulence along this line.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 28/12/2006 21:52

Its definately starting to happen, looks like the NT and WA are going to cop it soon. :cheers:
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 28/12/2006 22:08

generally the average time for monsoon development in the QLD area is between xmas and new year, so the fact that its developing over WA & NT waters means we are probably only about 2weeks behind the "average" time period. assuming this MJO passage does kick in the actual monsoon.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 28/12/2006 22:29

This, from the latest High Seas forecast from the Northern Area:

PART 2. SITUATION
At 280600 UTC.
A trough extends from weak low near 3S 94E to a weak low near 8S 106E to a weak
low near 10S 118E to 6S 130E to 5S 142E.

A fairly extensive trough line with three embedded lows. Yes, it's definitely stirring up.
Posted by: Madmax

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 29/12/2006 00:52

It may be that the 118E low is stonger in their analysis but I was using GMS IR and visually is looked weaker than the second low in my post.

12S 123E is now the main circulation at the moment, it may just be temporary, as most storm activity is further west.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 29/12/2006 00:58

the monsoon is sure deveoping very interesting times ahead looks good on sat pics.
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 29/12/2006 04:01

I reckon the drought will break for central and northern Queensland this wet season.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 29/12/2006 12:04

well it is certinally looking like a possible drought breaking coming up this week
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 29/12/2006 12:17

A 'conga line of suckholes'!:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest.pl?IDCODE=IDX0016
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 29/12/2006 12:29

wrong side of the country for my likeing wink
but still a great sign cool
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 29/12/2006 12:51

The monsoon activity commonly develops over that side of the country first, usually associated with the MJO as it moves towards our region.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 29/12/2006 13:10

I think Mick knows that R.N., he's just wants it to happen now, like all of us here in N.Q. laugh

P.S. how did you go with Decembers rainfall total so far, we have scored 104mm.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 29/12/2006 14:40

Yes, Tempest, I expect Mick knows all about the usual monsoonal developments, but I was just thinking that might be of interest to some newer members.
Townsville Airport, according to Weatherzone has received only 47.4mm for December out of an average of 125.8mm. Mackay Airport has had 116mm, slightly above the average of about 105mm, but Mackay Bureau have only had 85mm, still just below average. Anyway, at least the grass is green, so i'm happy for now. If we happen to get our January average, the dams in our area should be nearly full too. smile
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 29/12/2006 15:09

Quote:
Originally posted by Mick10:
wrong side of the country for my likeing wink
but still a great sign cool
Only early days Mick. The large highs and associated trades are unfamiliar at this time of year. They will certainly help fire things up. I'll take a punt that our rain will come out of the gulf this year and be supplemented by coastal showers .
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 29/12/2006 23:59

I notice the MJO is making big strides now, and is fast approaching phase 4 (See chart on page one of this thread).
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 30/12/2006 00:03

cheers guys, impatient little bugger today arent I laugh
similar rainfall to tville airport here 40+mm here so far, well done on average.
great to see the afternoon buildup so well defined along the north and western areas, esp compared to a week ago, amazing when u think how fast things can change.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 30/12/2006 00:27

Yep RN I agree with your statement that the monsoon almost always develops in the NW regions and progressively pushes eastwards about 7 - 10 days later. We'll see increases in activity 0ver the NW early next week, in the NT mid next week and GOC late next week and then on the peninsula early in the 2nd week of Jan before things progress to the CS late in the 2nd week of Jan. Obviously this is looking at an atypical scenario of 0 tropical disturbances. If a TD/TS does occur it often throws a spanner in the works depending on system size and longevity. How is a matter for conjecture. A very large system in diameter may result in either a very large area of convergence to its East and West (as it will pump more Northerlies down from the Northern Hemisphere over a larger area), OR it in a less likely but still possible scenario would stop and then dissipate the MJO pulse. A smaller system in diameter puts less spanners in the works.

Some good HIGHS coming through east Asia now in the 1030's will make sure that we have moderate to fresh cross eqautorial trade wind flow so this monsoon trough won't be dissipating anytime soon. Now we just need some good HIGHS to come through the South of our continent and watch the amount of convergence explode(as impressive as it looks now, it's got nothing on a mature monsoon trough)
Posted by: Squid

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 30/12/2006 06:17

what is a suckhole?
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 30/12/2006 07:29

I think he is refering to a low as a 'suckhole'
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 30/12/2006 09:21

Well it's now official:

PART 2. SITUATION
At 291800 UTC.
Monsoon trough extends from 7S 90E to a weak low 1005 hPa, near 10S 107E, to
another weak low 1006 hPa, near 10S 120E to 5S 142E.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 30/12/2006 09:28

ahh oks well lets just keep it a lows then people like myself wont get lost yes i was reading that this morning IW it has indeed developed and slowly moving south i believe
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 30/12/2006 12:41

The monsoon is on time this year. A good sign?
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 30/12/2006 12:58

http://northauschasers.com/ Check this site out. The radar for Darwin is excellent and as the monsoon comes down you will be able to follow it here.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 31/12/2006 00:03

MJO is now in phase 4. OMG, this is my 1,000th post! I don't wish to be labeled an addict! Okay, I'm going cold turkey! Bye bye for now. :wave:
Posted by: Squid

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 31/12/2006 08:17

well that is a good sign now that the MJO is finally in phase 4 i hope it takes its time going through phase 4,5 and 6
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 04/01/2007 09:35

MJO is presently in phase 5 and shows no signs of breaking down.
Posted by: storm freak

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 04/01/2007 09:58

is that a good thing or a bad thing
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 04/01/2007 10:28

It is a good thing in that there is likely to be enchanced rainfall in Qld while the MJO is in Phase 5, and even into Phase 6. It could help to bring the monsoon down from PNG into FNQ, but that is by no means certain.
If the MJO is still going strong through Phases 6-8, it will be affecting the South Pacific, probably causing cyclones out there, which will not help us, and would cause increasing westerly wind bursts over around the date-line which could help keep el nino going.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 04/01/2007 13:00

gosh it didnt take it long to go from phase 4 to phase 5
Posted by: Frog

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 04/01/2007 14:33

Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
gosh it didnt take it long to go from phase 4 to phase 5
What's the best phase for the MJO to be for SEQ rain?
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 04/01/2007 14:53

Quote:
Originally posted by Stormbunny:
Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
[b] gosh it didnt take it long to go from phase 4 to phase 5
What's the best phase for the MJO to be for SEQ rain? [/b]
Usually phase 5, maybe into phase 6 sometimes.
Posted by: Ntmick.

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 04/01/2007 14:54

Quote:
Originally posted by Stormbunny:
Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
[b] gosh it didnt take it long to go from phase 4 to phase 5
What's the best phase for the MJO to be for SEQ rain? [/b]
Phase 6 Depending on ALL other influences of course.
Posted by: zoso-wx

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 04/01/2007 16:45

Given the each MJO is between 30-50 days, each phase doesn't tend to last too long although it can affect the regions weather for a week or two.

Interesting to see the BoM here have gone for showers/storms and 31 here on Sunday I think it was. Usually that is a sign that the monsoon is not far off. The other hint is in the sounding here at the moment. All upper level winds are E which is the direction they are when the monsoon is in full swing, just have to wait for the surface-500 winds to swing around now.

:cheers:
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 04/01/2007 17:04

If anything, the monsoon has weakened over the last 2 days. There is a chance it may not reach the maritime continent before the next passage of the mjo.
Posted by: zoso-wx

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 04/01/2007 19:58

Don't actually need the MJO for it to start but it obviously helps a bucketload if it starts while it is in phase 4-6 for Aust. If it is weakening as you say I am going to go spare. If the first really good rains are in early to mid Feb would have me climbing the wall wanting to do evil hurtful things to ppl and small animals by the end of this month lol

:cheers:
Posted by: Madmax

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 09/01/2007 13:51

It will be interesting to see the report here later today

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml

this current event looks to be continuing for a week or two, getting close to late Jan by then.
Posted by: Lightning Lover

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 11/01/2007 17:13

This topic should be renamed "Late start to monsoon" as it is too late already to be Early start.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 12/01/2007 06:06

I agree LL; however, the MJO is now in phase 6! It still has a bit of life left it.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 12/01/2007 08:01

Well, depending on where you live, some of the far northern parts of the country, including Darwin, have already experienced the start of the monsoon (I notice even some people in Darwin have been calling it the monsoon - perhaps some others may disagree and call it something else). I agree it wasn't an early start, but it hasn't been late either, except perhaps for those areas still waiting. That includes most of NQ (except for Torres Strait), but I agree with IW, while the MJO in Phase 6, there is still a good chance of monsoon activity for NE Australia. Also the recent very extensive and heavy thunderstorm activity in the inland parts of the north is either the start of the wet season, or an indication that it is imminent.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 15/01/2007 11:05

this is interesting form the MJO site

The passage of the MJO is also associated with green season (green break, green shoulder) and wet season onset in Northern Australia. The monsoon has not developed fully with his event
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 17/01/2007 07:28

The current MJO has now collapsed.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 17/01/2007 07:55

so what does that mean? Will it restart in phase 1 soon?
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 17/01/2007 08:14

The BoM, when they prepared this week's tropical climate note seemed to think that we may be under the influence of the current MJO for about another week, based on the convection that is still occurring over northern Australia:
"This current active burst period of tropical weather in Australia's north should generally wane over the next week or so. If the recent 30-day periodicity of the MJO were to persist, the next active phase over northern Australia would begin around early February. However this current burst, with its very pronounced convective signature over the maritime continent, remains further west than recent previous events, allowing for the possibility that the next event may be delayed, perhaps closer to the middle of February."

Perhaps the MJO is continuing for a while, although in a weakened mode?
Or if the MJO has really collapsed now, then perhaps it could be that the "pronounced convective signature" is partly due to something else? Or perhaps the monsoon low causing the convection has taken on a life of its own?

It would seem unlikely to restart in Phase 1 for at least another week or two, and the timing of the next event over our region probably depends on how long the current situation persists.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 21/01/2007 21:55

seeming that it is in phase 8 now when would it likely be in phase 1 again?
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 21/01/2007 22:17

Phase 8? It's still off the dial.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 21/01/2007 22:42

Oh i thought it was in phase 8
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 21/01/2007 23:06

Yes, well, Bokkey reported that it was in Phase 8 in the other thread, "ENSO discussion".
I am not sure about the source of his information.
btw - the "ENSO discussion" thread is probably where this discussion belongs. The topic "Early Monsoon" seems to be out-dated now that we are actually having monsoon conditions in NQ!
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Early Start to Monsoon? - 21/01/2007 23:12

yes thats a good call RN, it wasnt exactly early either was it frown
case closed!