SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive]

Posted by: Seabreeze

SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/01/2018 22:48

New Year. New thread for day-to-day weather. smile

Welcome to 2018's Day-to-day weather thread.

By the way, the 2017 Day-to-day thread's 138 pages was a record high amount of pages for day-to-day weather discussion, beating the previous record of 123 pages of day-to-day discussion back in 2011.






Quote:
2018's Monthly distribution of pages
(if set to default setting of 20 posts per page)

January - Pages 1 to 15
February - Pages 15 to 24
March - Pages 24 to 44
April - Pages 44 to 55
May - Pages 55 to 66
June - Pages 66 to 81
July - Pages 81 to 95
August - Pages 95 to 108
September - Pages 108 to 116
October - Pages 116 to 131
November - Pages 131 to 149
December - Pages 149 to 169

Posted by: vjknight

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/01/2018 17:49

Anyone able to provide a medium range forecast for Gold Coast - January 4 to 15. Daughter is visiting and one thing that terrifies her is loud thunder. We get very little down our way (except for last few weeks)

thanks in advance.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/01/2018 22:41

Fine and storm free smile
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/01/2018 23:37

Originally Posted By: Steve O
Fine and storm free smile


Looks that way for the next two weeks maybe even longer, except for a possible storm outbreak in NE NSW (only) next week.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/01/2018 17:35

Wow, I picked a good time to head to NZ then. Looks to be quite hot in Warwick also in a few days. Looking forward to the cooler temps. Take care everyone and see you in a couple of weeks.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/01/2018 22:54

Yo blokes (and ladies), happy new year.
Seabreeze, that record you mention can only mean 1 thing, we waffle heaps. Luv it.
Keep it up all, really love comin here to get my weather fix and info. (list is way to long to mention but you know who you are)
I thank you all for your time, pics and input. Now back to my strong silent side.
Later
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/01/2018 20:15

I did about 8 hours painting today - was good weather for it.
More of same tomorrow- weather and painting 🙃
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/01/2018 16:03

What's the next event on the horizon? Looks to be pretty stable this week based on BOM forecast.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/01/2018 17:22

Originally Posted By: CirrusFibratus
What's the next event on the horizon? Looks to be pretty stable this week based on BOM forecast.


Next Saturday, but still looks very patchy.
Posted by: KevD

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/01/2018 10:57

Ok, I am so over the Quidge. Been there pretty much consistently since the beginning of (was it October or November - feels like longer either way?) Looking @ the extended charts it looks like more of the same. Appreciate we get the odd break and bit of fun coming through, but far out, if this is what a moderate La Nina can do I'd rather not see it. Just keep on watching those charts and waiting for change...best chance I can see is some significant event Feb or March as the Coral and Tasman continue to warm up with the monsoon missing in action off the east coast...
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/01/2018 12:00

La Nina causes lower SLPs in coastal Qld and western Coral Sea and not ridging.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/01/2018 15:34

Next weekend is still looking a bit interesting - most models are still trying to bring a coastal change up the coast with decent instability ahead of it.
The finer details of what could complicate it (e.g. moisture, capping, timing, cloud cover, etc) should hopefully become more apparent in the coming days.

Some southern & western parts of our region could get some activity in the days before then as well.


Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/01/2018 18:51

Every La Nina is different and has different effects. The Coral Sea is like a pressure cooker, sooner or later it will pop in a big way.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/01/2018 19:49

Looking at BOMs SST's off the coast N of Fraser, its primed all right! Even off Bris its warm enough to support anything coming down. That GOC though, wow, thats ticking!
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/01/2018 20:19

Just need a trigger for the Coral Sea. But with the 30-40knot NE flow normally through the South China Sea which is needed to push the MT over NE OZ and the Coral Sea - still largely heading back into the Asian Continent due to a series of circulations above the Equator, we here in the East will be waiting a while yet.

The NW of OZ is seeing what I call a " back door " monsoon flow, via India wrapping around these same NH lows.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/01/2018 20:36

Thunderdays & Thunderstorm hits yearly totals over the past five calendar years at South West Rocks:
2017 - 56 thunderdays & 44 thunderstorm hits
2016 - 45 thunderdays & 31 thunderstorm hits
2015 - 64 thunderdays & 47 thunderstorm hits
2014 - 50 thunderdays & 40 thunderstorm hits
2013 - 43 thunderdays & 30 thunderstorm hits

Months ranked from most stormy to least stormy:
December
November
October
January
February
April
March
September
June
August
May
July

Splitting hairs between December and November, they're basically equal stormiest. November is the little more consistent of the two from year-to-year though. July is the least stormiest month by a country mile, no other month even comes remotely close to it.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/01/2018 22:19

Seems that either the frequency of thunderdays has increased over the past 10 or so years Seabreeze and maybe the BOM need to think about compiling a new thunderday map for Australia, given that the one displayed on their website is for the years 1990 - 1999. What we see on that map for that period of time is a thunderday frequency of about 30 - 40 per year on average.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/01/2018 22:24

Meant to say specifically that those numbers were for your area around South west Rocks and the Coffs coast
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/01/2018 23:10

Yeah it would seem the 1990-1999 period during which the BOM thunderdays map covers was less storm active than recent years (at least around this area).
1990-1999 avg. 35-40 t'days annually (approximated from map)
versus
2013-2017 avg. 51.6 t'days annually
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/01/2018 23:17

Cheers RWM.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/01/2018 09:01

Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Thunderdays & Thunderstorm hits yearly totals over the past five calendar years at South West Rocks:
2017 - 56 thunderdays & 44 thunderstorm hits
2016 - 45 thunderdays & 31 thunderstorm hits
2015 - 64 thunderdays & 47 thunderstorm hits
2014 - 50 thunderdays & 40 thunderstorm hits
2013 - 43 thunderdays & 30 thunderstorm hits

Months ranked from most stormy to least stormy:
December
November
October
January
February
April
March
September
June
August
May
July

Splitting hairs between December and November, they're basically equal stormiest. November is the little more consistent of the two from year-to-year though. July is the least stormiest month by a country mile, no other month even comes remotely close to it.


Love the stats Eric thanks for the updates.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/01/2018 11:19

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Next weekend is still looking a bit interesting - most models are still trying to bring a coastal change up the coast with decent instability ahead of it.
The finer details of what could complicate it (e.g. moisture, capping, timing, cloud cover, etc) should hopefully become more apparent in the coming days.

Some southern & western parts of our region could get some activity in the days before then as well.




Atleast there are no gaps beyond the 12th. GFS has been consistent with some precip in the way of thunderstorms for region by the weekend as you mentioned. Theres also a hint of a signal at the end of the run with the models but too far to tell if its a big event yet.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/01/2018 14:05

Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Just need a trigger for the Coral Sea. But with the 30-40knot NE flow normally through the South China Sea which is needed to push the MT over NE OZ and the Coral Sea - still largely heading back into the Asian Continent due to a series of circulations above the Equator, we here in the East will be waiting a while yet.

The NW of OZ is seeing what I call a " back door " monsoon flow, via India wrapping around these same NH lows.



You have the wonder where is all the evaporation going from the coral sea? surely it's not drying out up above?
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/01/2018 14:55

I would have.to fathom a guess Gleno and point the bone at our old friend the high pressure ridge or the squidge as it is affectionately known.Occasional shower off the coast in the moist south easterly most of the time.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/01/2018 16:35

Spot on Tweedstorm.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/01/2018 22:38

Cheers SteveO.

A bit over an hour ago, I was down by the riverside for a little while and could see the near-constant lightning being produced by storms about 100-110kms SW of here.

STW is current for Heavy Rain, Large Hail and Damaging Winds.

Although we're within the warning area now, the storms will need to keep building northward if we're to get anything here tonight.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/01/2018 03:17

A storm hit here just after 1am. It went through fairly quickly, with a burst of moderate to heavy rain and strong winds (approx peak 70km/h). The storm line was producing very frequent lightning as it approached and moved through.
It eased and cleared off to light rain, until a weak storm moved in a bit later bringing steady to briefly borderline moderate rain, and fairly infrequent though noisy lightning/thunder.

The initial storm on approach about 10 minutes or so before it arrived -
Posted by: Befour

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/01/2018 08:54

My station recorded 9.5mm from those storms - wind gust of 31.3km/h though my station is a fairly protected from the wind by a number of trees which block the worst of it so the reading will be low unfortunately.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/01/2018 09:55

Yeah get a better run-up for wind here with no trees/bushland near the house (only the odd palm tree in other neighbour's yards, which come in handy when guesstimating wind speed).
Coffs got the best of the wind with 82km/h gusts. Reasonable falls of over 25mm to the west of Port and southwest of Kempsey, including 55mm at Elands and 50mm at Mt Seaview.
A narrow storm band quickly passed through around 8:10am. Only brief steady rain, however it still managed to produce occasional lightning/thunder. 13.8mm in the 24hrs to 9am here.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/01/2018 19:51

Nobody watching the radar? Just took a peek. Thought there was something nice about to the South with all that darkish high cloud & another quality sunset!
Good looking harbinger for the next few days.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/01/2018 20:49

Harbinger??? - anything that foreshadows a future event; omen; sign. LSNED
Posted by: thecatandme

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/01/2018 21:23

There was a glorious sunset out at Plainlands tonight, all pinks and purples. There is a rumbling in the distance but doesn't seem to be amounting too much.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/01/2018 00:00

Very strong storm moved through Inglewood this evening. The AWS there recorded 61mm in an hour, and 87km/h wind gusts.

Nice lightning pic from last night taken at Port Macquarie
https://www.instagram.com/p/BdvvpN_n8Wc/

After the mid-morning storm band moved through parts of the northern MNC, the weak southerly soon came through and began to stabilise things, so storms remained on and west of the tablelands this afternoon/evening.

Been a few brief showers here tonight falling from low-level cloud.
GFS indicating there may storms about the coastal areas in the local region tomorrow, however EC and ACCESS aren't so keen on the idea.
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/01/2018 22:57

Doesn't look like the current hot, dry pattern is gonna break for a while. This weekends storms have faded into oblivion, models not showing anything of interest either apart from something at the end of extended GFS fantasy land.

While its quiet in here I'll share a few pics I snapped today during my travels of the storm damage from the boxing day supercell west of Kingaroy. Was probably another 3km west of the photos I posted in the event thread at the time. Even 2 and a bit weeks later the trees are still completely defoliated and scarred from the hail, looked like a cat 3 cyclone had gone through the place. A few houses with windows boarded up in the area as well. Certainly a storm I'll never forget thats for sure.

Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/01/2018 23:01

Heavy falls in the Armidale area up on the Northern Tablelands today from thunderstorms. Armidale Airport has recorded 68.8mm since 9am. Making it the wettest January day on record at the Airport site (24yrs of records), and combining the records of the three Armidale sites that have existed, the wettest January day since 1964 (75.9mm).

On the coast, a couple of storms did manage to form around the Nambucca and Bellinger Valleys this evening. A little distant thunder was heard here from one near Macksville.


P.S. Nice work Gus.
Posted by: Golden State

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/01/2018 23:12

Something better get going soon if this seasonal outlook is to stand up

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/median/seasonal/0
Posted by: Lewis

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/01/2018 23:27

Originally Posted By: Golden State
Something better get going soon if this seasonal outlook is to stand up

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/median/seasonal/0


I wouldn't call it now by any means.

Just going back to last year, we had pretty average rain in January, and then below average in February and the first half of March, and then the heavens opened in a spectacular way with two rain events in the second half of March (one pre-Debbie and Debbie herself). On the flip side, it was distinctly dry post-2011 floods in SEQ. Nobody was really worried though as everybody was thoroughly sick of the rain by this time 7 years ago.

There's still a solid three months for things to get going, not to mention the forecast for Australia Day is still yet to come out. Something about that public holiday which attracts pouring rain. grin
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/01/2018 09:05

8 day WATL looks great for North Oz, not so much for us. Wish it would hurry up & move south.
Posted by: redbucket

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/01/2018 09:29

Yeah, we're really hurting at home now. 2mm so far for 2018, and only 50mm in Dec. I haven't mowed for 3 weeks!!! Unheard of haha. Seeing all the pictures floating around FB of the 2011 January floods has given me a bit of perspective though... those were some tough times.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/01/2018 09:36

So will there be storms over the weekend or not? Weather pages, media and the BOM seem to think so? Nothing said here?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/01/2018 09:39

Originally Posted By: gleno71
So will there be storms over the weekend or not? Weather pages, media and the BOM seem to think so? Nothing said here?

A few of us actually made posts about it earlier this week but no-one else seemed interested.

I'll start a new thread for it shortly if no-one else does in the meantime.

P.S. Remarkable photos LightningGus... the 1st one reminds me of what many of the trees in some southside suburbs of Brisbane STILL look like after the big 2014 hailstorm and the extent of defoliation in the 2nd pic is remarkable.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/01/2018 09:45

Cheers Ken smile
Posted by: Befour

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/01/2018 09:59

That is pretty crazy to see all those trees looking like that.

Thanks for posting them up!
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/01/2018 11:34

Thanks seabreeze, ken and befour smile
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/01/2018 13:42

Onya Ken, lots of red for your maps please, thanks :-)
Awesone oics L.G., reminds me of Fernvale a couple of years ago. Place looked like it got hit by a bomb.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/01/2018 13:46

Yes thanks ken
I feel sunday will be a big day. Due to southerly front comming through in afternoon
Hoping for one of those wide spread storm front situation. Not saying they will be severe but just wide spread
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/01/2018 14:26

Sunday hasn't looked that great all week. Surface trough pretty much off the coast by mid-morning. Southerly arrives early and pushes the trough back a little inland. It does strengthen in the afternoon but it's still very dry upstairs. I can't see this being a big storm front or spawning supercells, but there could be some isolated activity.
Posted by: gberg

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/01/2018 16:31

Hey guys, i know this gets asked a lot but i have just joined flickr and i can't for the life of me work out how to share pics on here.. Can someone please point me in the right direction (thread wise)for some instructions on how to.
Posted by: Foehn Correspondent

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/01/2018 17:50

Originally Posted By: gberg
Hey guys, i know this gets asked a lot but i have just joined flickr and i can't for the life of me work out how to share pics on here.. Can someone please point me in the right direction (thread wise)for some instructions on how to.


Hi Gberg

I sent these to someone awhile ago.

1. Upload your photo to Flickr in the usual manner.
2. When ready to upload to Weatherzone. In Flick go to Your photostream and click on the photo that you want to upload.
3. The individual photo that you want to upload will come up. In the bottom right corner of the screen are three icons hit the one that says Share Photo (second from the right)
4. Another dialog box will come up which says "Share 1 photo to"
5. Click on BBCode
6. Another dialog box appears - you can select the size of the image here to comply with WZ requirements.
7.Copy the entire URL in the small window above (make sure you have the entire URL or it wont work).
8. You can just past the entire URL into the Message box on WZ. You can have a quick look in the Preview window to make sure it displays ok.
9. From memory Flickr requires you to add that the photo is on Flickr which is why the title of your photo and name will then appear in the WZ post. (You can actually edit this out if you want to my removing the last part of the URL - but probably easier to leave it in)
10. You can hit return a couple of time and type in any message you want to accompany the photo or do that at the start.
11. Any dramas send me a post.

Cheers

Greg
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/01/2018 17:51

Originally Posted By: Golden State
Something better get going soon if this seasonal outlook is to stand up

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/median/seasonal/0


Meanwhile, below are the rainfall outlooks for Feb and averaged across Feb-Mar-Apr generated by an ensemble of several models and calibrated to past outcomes:



Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/01/2018 17:52

I've created a new thread for this weekend's thunderstorm possibilities: http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...rms#Post1448484
Posted by: gberg

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/01/2018 21:02

Originally Posted By: Foehn Correspondent
Originally Posted By: gberg
Hey guys, i know this gets asked a lot but i have just joined flickr and i can't for the life of me work out how to share pics on here.. Can someone please point me in the right direction (thread wise)for some instructions on how to.


Hi Gberg

I sent these to someone awhile ago.

1. Upload your photo to Flickr in the usual manner.
2. When ready to upload to Weatherzone. In Flick go to Your photostream and click on the photo that you want to upload.
3. The individual photo that you want to upload will come up. In the bottom right corner of the screen are three icons hit the one that says Share Photo (second from the right)
4. Another dialog box will come up which says "Share 1 photo to"
5. Click on BBCode
6. Another dialog box appears - you can select the size of the image here to comply with WZ requirements.
7.Copy the entire URL in the small window above (make sure you have the entire URL or it wont work).
8. You can just past the entire URL into the Message box on WZ. You can have a quick look in the Preview window to make sure it displays ok.
9. From memory Flickr requires you to add that the photo is on Flickr which is why the title of your photo and name will then appear in the WZ post. (You can actually edit this out if you want to my removing the last part of the URL - but probably easier to leave it in)
10. You can hit return a couple of time and type in any message you want to accompany the photo or do that at the start.
11. Any dramas send me a post.

Cheers

Greg



Thanks heaps Greg i will try uploading some again over the weekend. Very much appreciate you helping me out!
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/01/2018 21:43

I don’t know much , but I’m a pessimist this wknd. Not confident at all. Garden browning off , needs a drink but I doubt it will come from above. Love to be wrong.
Posted by: Golden State

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/01/2018 10:19

Yep, I’m highly sceptical of the supposedly wetter than ave forecast for the next couple of months too.. or if it does eventuate, it’ll be via a gigantic one-off rain event or two then just hot, dry, drought for other two months and 26 days
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/01/2018 14:05

Happy new year all.
I find it interesting we have reverted to hot and dry again.
Feels like a giant spring winding up. When it turns south east there’s going to be a lot of latent heat in the ocean.
When it gives it’ll probably go bang. In some way.
Prob late jan - feb by the looks of it.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/01/2018 14:27

Speaking of heat, the big area of hotter than normal temps that's been appearing in the 7-14 day timeframe from now for the SE quarter of Australia in NAEFS is even bigger in its latest run and has expanded into inland southern QLD/inland northern NSW (although you'd naturally expect it to shift from run to run given the forecast timeframe is constantly advancing forwards with each run).

Although the map technically just shows the probabilities of *significantly* warmer or cooler than normal temps, the probabilities often correlate with the magnitude of the temperature anomalies as well. I wonder if some places will challenge heat records again:


Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/01/2018 14:34

Hi all, Looks like some rain heading my way from the south .No storms in it yet ,
Grass is dead so will take this with open arms.Temps got to 41.6 and is on the way down now.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/01/2018 21:49

Thanks Ken,
It’s like we’ve reverted to late spring/early summer!

Love the lanina cool streaming of nw South America.
Btw my point about rain in feb relates to the bom rainfall outlook for increased likelihood of above average rainfall in feb in SEQ.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/01/2018 16:23

Why does GFS tease us every year...

Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/01/2018 12:32

Since when do we get clear skies and no wind the day after a big southerly has come through? Very strange.
Posted by: gberg

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/01/2018 12:56

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Since when do we get clear skies and no wind the day after a big southerly has come through? Very strange.


Thats whats i was thinking for up here on the sunny coast... Talked to a rep on the goldie just before though who said it was blowing a gale still??
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/01/2018 13:41

Originally Posted By: gberg
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Since when do we get clear skies and no wind the day after a big southerly has come through? Very strange.


Thats whats i was thinking for up here on the sunny coast... Talked to a rep on the goldie just before though who said it was blowing a gale still??


That's fairly common for SE QLD when we get a southerly flow (even if it's a strong synoptic flow) due to the shape of the coastline and terrain.

Many areas in SE QLD just inland of the coast tend to be far more sheltered from the strong southerly flow due to the abrupt high terrain of the Scenic Rim and land to our south (which also refracts the southerlies around to a more onshore direction onto inland SE QLD) while the more exposed parts of the coastal fringe and islands and especially the more exposed south-southeast facing parts of the NSW coast feel the southerlies a lot more.

There's been many instances of a very strong synoptic-scale southerly flow here due to a big low in the Tasman but areas just inland of the coastal fringe have barely felt it while the coast and islands get a good blow.

It's a different case when we get winds from most other directions though. Even strong NW/W/SW winds tend to be gusty here as the turbulent flow on the leeward side of the higher inland terrain helps to mix down stronger gusts to the surface.
Posted by: Golden State

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/01/2018 13:22

Well, so much for the wetter than average January forecast.. not a drop in sight for at least another week and we've barely had a quarter of our average rainfall for this month.
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/01/2018 14:08

I would be happy for a quarter of our average rainfall at this stage. As it stands, it is currently the 2nd driest January in 120 years at Westbrook (on the western side of Toowoomba).
Posted by: redbucket

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/01/2018 16:14

Originally Posted By: Adam Ant
I would be happy for a quarter of our average rainfall at this stage. As it stands, it is currently the 2nd driest January in 120 years at Westbrook (on the western side of Toowoomba).


Yeah, it's bloody dry out that way. We've had 2.4mm at home at Regency Downs so far.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/01/2018 18:20

10mm to date Wynnum North. Average is 158mm.
Posted by: Dalby

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/01/2018 19:03

Well.. after the forecast for LaNina and wetter than normal conditions I and many other primary producers set about doing what we do to support our families - investing $$ to grow a crop so others can eat and we can make enough to feed ourselves and educate our kids. $400K plus invested here on the CBAs' behalf, and needing rain right now to get through with no rain in sight. BOM and others need to be very careful with what they predict as the consequences for consistently getting it wrong can be fatal - have a look at rural suicide figures. We will be OK but others may not. Tough times.. Dorothy McKellar certainly got it right!
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/01/2018 19:55

Concur Dalby as I was thinking the other day how this la nina isn't panning out as i would have thought. But there is a note that says %30 of la nina's are dryer than normal which i think this one falls into that category. One sign for me is that when a goood nina is active, you get a south east wind and it is always overcast in the Brisbane area so this nina is not living up to any projections. A constant high off the coast is not helping. I can't see any good signs for the last month and a half of summer. It actually feels more like am el nino. Crazy
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/01/2018 20:54

Agreed Dalby, it seems since the 2010-2011 floods, 90% of the big rains predicted for our area hasnt panned out. I've virtually given up looking at long terms forecasts or anything more than 3-4 days out now. If we get it, we get it. Hope we get something soon to help the farmers out. Getting dry again already.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/01/2018 20:58

I’m sure we know what impact certain drivers have on weather , but I’m not so sure we have a good handle on what the variations can deliver. Sometimes a pattern brings rain , other times , same thing doesn’t. It’s well beyond me, but that’s just the nature of things and if we knew it all , it wouldn’t be as captivating.
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/01/2018 21:21

YEAH, I'M WITH LANI, I JUST STARTED GOING BACK TO THE 3 TO 4 DAY OUTLOOKS AND IF IT RAINS IT RAINS IF IT DOESN'T SAY LA VI - SORRY LEFT CAPS LOCK ON
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/01/2018 21:41

Major rainfall events in SE QLD occur on average every 3-4 years but in the 20th century there were 3 periods where we went 10 consecutive years or more with out a major event (the longest being 14 years).

God help us when we see a repeat of such dry spells given current water demand in SE QLD
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/01/2018 22:29

Some of the crops around Kingaroy are not looking too healthy, major crop failures could be on the cards if rain doesn't fall soon.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/01/2018 22:47

Originally Posted By: Locke
Major rainfall events in SE QLD occur on average every 3-4 years but in the 20th century there were 3 periods where we went 10 consecutive years or more with out a major event (the longest being 14 years).

God help us when we see a repeat of such dry spells given current water demand in SE QLD


We've had exceptional rain events every 2 years in SEQ this decade (2011 floods, 2013 Oswald, 2015 May ECL, 2017 Debbie). Before that though it was very quiet coinciding with the Millennium drought. The last exceptional rain event in SEQ before 2010 was the 1996 event/minor flood. We had the hybrid cyclone in the early 00s and the ECL that dumped nearly a metre at Rainbow Bay, but they weren't proper SEQ-wide rain events like we've had more recently. I honestly thought there would never be another flood like 1974 ever again and that was a feeling shared by many I'm sure.

Even with the rain events this decade we seem to have long dry spells and then a dramatic rain event before returning to long-term dry patterns. I'm also interested to see if we have a 3'rd record warm autumn/winter in a row or if we're done with that.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/01/2018 22:57

Yea its a crazy ol world, you can almost guarantee it won't be the last time you see any of those extremes again. Unfortunately the drought probably is the worst.. things seem pretty normal at the moment but yea its abit quiet.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/01/2018 23:14

Was going to add to my post that the Tasman low should eventually go towards the pole. There was a few model where it lingered even came further north but that could be blocking some of the warmer humid air by tilting the ridge but in a weeks time it changes again.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/01/2018 08:57

Looks like my occasional thoughts about solar activity, or lack of, overriding various indices may have legs.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/01/2018 10:04

I agree RWM ,I believe the solar cycle has a affect on the climate .
Also solar cycle 25 looks like it may have a double dip or longer cycle this time .Bit crap for my radio hobby ,Thinking of taking antennas down and putting up a webcam that i have been going to put up for some time lol. I also have concerns how sometimes when the cycle is on the way up the sun throws off a big flare .The consequences in today's world would send us back to the 1900s or worse.Not all doom and gloom ,just have to see what happens lol.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/01/2018 10:53

Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/01/2018 11:16

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: gberg
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Since when do we get clear skies and no wind the day after a big southerly has come through? Very strange.


Thats whats i was thinking for up here on the sunny coast... Talked to a rep on the goldie just before though who said it was blowing a gale still??


That's fairly common for SE QLD when we get a southerly flow (even if it's a strong synoptic flow) due to the shape of the coastline and terrain.

Many areas in SE QLD just inland of the coast tend to be far more sheltered from the strong southerly flow due to the abrupt high terrain of the Scenic Rim and land to our south (which also refracts the southerlies around to a more onshore direction onto inland SE QLD) while the more exposed parts of the coastal fringe and islands and especially the more exposed south-southeast facing parts of the NSW coast feel the southerlies a lot more.

There's been many instances of a very strong synoptic-scale southerly flow here due to a big low in the Tasman but areas just inland of the coastal fringe have barely felt it while the coast and islands get a good blow.

It's a different case when we get winds from most other directions though. Even strong NW/W/SW winds tend to be gusty here as the turbulent flow on the leeward side of the higher inland terrain helps to mix down stronger gusts to the surface.



Ken i'm curious as to how terrain can effect our weather, given the mountains are not really that high in this part of the world when you compare it to the Rocky's and other larger mountain areas around the world. For example, I was driving the other day towards Toowoomba near Gatton, you look at the Great Divide, and it doesn't look that big in contrast , yet my car struggled to make it to the top of Toowoomba range lol.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/01/2018 08:19

Ozone Doug. Thanks for those thoughts - you seem to be one of the few that agree. Those graphs I put up last year on the solar cycle vs annual area 40 rain and the Townsville area showed something in quite a few years, but not in others. Those graphs only showed annual data, whereas the data I had on hand was monthly, so I worked it all out on an annual basis, since a graph showing 117 years of monthly data would be unreadable given the compression needs for photos here. I might look into graphs showing monthly data over 12 year solar cycles and see what happens.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/01/2018 09:03

Thank you RWM .These things are all part of the big picture.Carbon 14 has also been following the pattern of the solar cycles .
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/01/2018 10:15

WATL maps starting to show abit of a better sign now coming into the 8 day forecast.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/01/2018 10:18

Originally Posted By: Steve O
WATL maps starting to show abit of a better sign now coming into the 8 day forecast.

1-10mm aint much unfortunately... and I'm always cautious about rainfall totals from any forecast map at this time of year because a lot of it can be convective and some lucky places cop heavy showers or thunderstorms while others miss out. If it was a widespread steady stratiform rain event, it's a bit different though.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/01/2018 13:15

Yea its not showing much, though judging by those maps and the synoptics for around that period sort of shows it being more active than what it has been for the past couple of weeks?
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/01/2018 07:48

Just walked outside of where we are staying in Teven, 10 min's nw of Ballina. Very green down here,even to west of Lismore. BUT the mornings so cool and I would describe this morning as cold. Back to the parched Downs today. Hope some good rains coming soon
Cheers
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/01/2018 08:04

Glimmer of damp hope on the horizon - 2-week multimodel rainfall probability graph for Brisbane below (3 ensembles with a total of 62 forecast members):



Posted by: Befour

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/01/2018 08:44

Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Just walked outside of where we are staying in Teven, 10 min's nw of Ballina. Very green down here,even to west of Lismore. BUT the mornings so cool and I would describe this morning as cold. Back to the parched Downs today. Hope some good rains coming soon
Cheers


Interesting week temp wise - My Mum was complaining yesterday about how cold it has been overnight at South West Rocks - usually this time of year you wouldn't see anything under 20 overnight - more consistently in previous years the lower 20's however this week has seen nothing over 17.8 degrees and a low of 15.5 even.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/01/2018 08:50

Yep, incredibly cool for this time of year and very low humidity as well.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/01/2018 09:20

Yep thanks to the Tasman low but NZ looks to get some wet thanks to that then we will see what happens after.. Kens graph somes it up though with a humid onshore flow.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/01/2018 13:49

Pete , i travel between bne and the northern rivers regularly all year round and have noticed its often contrasting conditions. Cool maritime air bringing showers often extends as far north as the border , but then stops. Travelling north , i cannot tell you how often the sky clears around reedy ck. Air dries right out.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/01/2018 15:40

Yes Big T, know exactly what your saying.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/01/2018 16:07

All to do with the terrain bending round after the border which is kind of neat, if I get sick of the showers and howlin southerlies I just drive around the corner and head up to Reedy way haha
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/01/2018 07:48

Looking at the projected maps it makes me wonder is that all we have to look forward to around here . ..Massive stagnant highs in the Tasman. It would be gold to get a front that pushes all the way up here then stalls over the region, something that has been lacking this season.Not a fan of an onshore flow of humid showery muck off the ocean.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/01/2018 09:03

Just updating the local figures as I do each 10 days...
Av max 30.5C ( 0.9C above av ), Av min 19.7C ( 1.5C below av ) - making the temp anomaly to date minus 0.3C. Av grass min 18.8C, which is 0.9C below av.

This shows the effectiveness of the persistent coastal ridge keeping clear skies at night allowing the mins to drop way below average, enough to outweigh the above average max temps, including the 37 deg day almost a week ago.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/01/2018 09:36

RWM could you please explain the difference between this year and past summers in terms of this "persistent ridging". It has always been my observation that we have a dominant high pressure/south east wind regime at this time of year. What is the difference at this point to the norm. Cheers in advance for any reply posters.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/01/2018 10:23

Snapper22lb, you can look at ESRL:PSD map room to look at anomalies over various time periods.

For instance last 90 days shows the general tendency towards higher pressure along much of the east coast.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/01/2018 12:26

Snapper - As has been stated by many on this Forum, the persistent coastal ridge has been dominant for some years.

You are most likely aware of the LWT/LWR set ups around the Globe, usually presented with 500 Hpa info., reflected mostly down to the surface.

To me there seems to be also a longer term ( decadal ) lower level set up as well. For quite a while there has been a tendency for higher rain over the NW side of OZ, lower rain over the East, and higher rain and greater TC development/movement over the Pacific Islands areas, each ULW ( I call this Ultra Long Wave ) each separated by about 2000 +/- kms.

Sometimes the Monsoon Trough bends right down to Brisbane latitudes well to our East, with a Low attached, whereas over Eastern Qld it rarely gets below 20/22 South.

Our high pressure systems in summer are supposed to be centred down around the Tasmania area, but when they do lately they are short lived. A " bubble " high seems to develop over SE Qld/ NE NSW, which keeps possible lower pressure systems at bay.

The STJ seems to be also further north that it should be over recent spring/summers, and it seems to like being centred over the Wide Bay/Capricornia latitudes a lot more these days, enhancing wetter weather there and drier weather to the north and south.

All of the above have been my observations with no plausible explanations as to why attached.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/01/2018 13:21

The subtropical jet stream over the Wide Bay/Burnett and Capricornia could be why s
we seem to be getting more severe storms lately and less cyclones.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/01/2018 16:37

Thanks for the comprehensive responses. Statistics released yesterday show the last 4 or 5 years have been the hottest ever. Could higher land mass temps have a bearing on the passage, position or stalling of high pressure. Thanks
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/01/2018 16:53

So taking my colour blindness into account the pressure anomily adjacent to seq is around .5 to 1 hpa above normal. Doesn't seem like a lot. (To the novice) Also appears to Shadow the great divide perfectly. Just some observations.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/01/2018 23:14

Notable stat from Coffs during the cold snap that just ended -

The coldest January nights at Coffs Harbour (Airport & Meteorological Office sites) since records began in 1952:
11.0 3rd Jan 1953
11.7 5th Jan 1954
12.0 18th Jan 2018
12.0 19th Jan 2018
12.1 2nd Jan 1953
12.2 20th Jan 1966
12.5 20th Jan 2018
12.9 1st Jan 2005

With a 3-night average of 12.2 (rounded to 1 decimal place) over Jan 18-20 of this year, it was also the coldest 3-night period on record at Coffs during January (beating a 3-night average of 12.9 over Jan 1-3 1953).
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/01/2018 07:27

An extraordinary week. A massive outbreak of extremely dry air over most of eastern Australia starting last Sunday and just now only starting to return to sort of normal.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/01/2018 13:09

Been a warm, humid with heavy looking cloudy day so far. Weather is changing so slowly, rain better hurry up. Been lush & green 2 weeks ago, had to mow & the sun burnt the grass & very crunchy under foot around the house.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/01/2018 13:18

Yesterdays Brisbane sounding explains it well, so dry from the ground well into the atmosphere.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/01/2018 14:07

Bring on some Coral Sea moisture please
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/01/2018 14:38

Yeah I love tropical skies, better than nothing thats for sure.Might start seein more of that as the week progresses giving us a ray of hope.So glad those dry winds off that low have gonski
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/01/2018 14:47

Hahahaha

QUEENSLAND’S tourism industry has attacked the weather bureau for being too negative in its forecasting, saying it is discouraging day-trippers.

The Queensland Tourism Industry Council (QTIC) has called for a sunnier disposition from the Bureau of Meteorology when informing the public about the day’s weather.

QTIC chief executive Daniel Gschwind said current forecast language such as “partly cloudy” and “chance of rain” should be changed to “mostly sunny” and “likely sunshine”.

Other examples included “showers” and “overcast” to “cooling down rain (after a hot day)” and “cool day”.

“Weather messaging has a significant impact on weekend, spontaneous and daytrip travel plans,” Mr Gschwind said.

“We prefer the ‘glass half full’ option when it comes to weather reporting — for example, ‘mainly sunny’ is more encouraging to domestic travel­lers than ‘chance of rain’.”

Mr Gschwind said showers and rain forecasts should be marketed as a drawcard.

“Rain in Queensland doesn’t have the same implications as the northern hemisphere. I don’t think it should be framed in a bad way. It could even be described as a ‘cooling down shower’ or something.”

University of Queensland tourism expert Dr Pierre Benckendorff said positive weather forecasts had an effect on the psyche of visitors.

“We certainly see a downturn in occupancy at hotels and visitation at attrac­tions when the weather forecast is less favourable. ‘Partly cloudy’ or ‘overcast’ does not tell tourists a lot,” he said.

“More positive language that would still inform other industries without spooking tourists would certainly help.

“Unfavourable forecasts certainly impact on day trippers, possibly impact on short-stay visits but are unlikely to impact on long-haul visitors from interstate or overseas.”

A spokesman for Tourism Minister Kate Jones said the Government had not been approached about BOM’s choice of words.

“Everyone knows Queensland is beautiful one day and perfect the next,” they said.

A BOM spokesman said improvements to the radar network had resulted in more specific forecast modelling.

“The bureau provides one of the most widely used services of government, and we recognise a broad range of indus­tries rely on accurate weather forecasts in their operations, and that these forecasts also influence how the public spends their leisure time,” they said.

“The most recent improvements to the rainfall forecast have delivered more specific, probabilistic forecasts to better inform our customers.”
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/01/2018 14:55

Seriously?
Thats April 1 stuff.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/01/2018 15:26

Yea our glass half full differs from theirs haha.
Posted by: Lewis

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/01/2018 15:34

The other option is that you get it wrong, and people who have gone out into country regions in particular - for swims in creeks, drives over causeways and so on - get caught out by heavy rain and storms and get stranded, or end up driving in poor conditions on poor-quality, unfamiliar roads.

If QTIC were serious, in the absence of daylight saving in Qld, they'd simply encourage people to leave on day trips earlier and return earlier, avoiding the volatile late-afternoon weather.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/01/2018 16:42

I agree with the proposal on partly cloudy days where there is no risk of precipitation but when there is, that needs to be highlighted.on the forecast hence chance of a shower or chance of a storm
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/01/2018 22:10

Best to say it for what it is.
Saying sunshine likely, probably for those not used to sunshine, will only upset them when 15 minutes of cloud disappoints there sun expectations.
It is the sunny Queensland and Australia and some areas beyond that BoM forecast for. Let them do their job, without distorting to the sun wish for visitors compared to us familiar with the sun who live here
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/01/2018 22:32

Yawn.
Has anyone else been watching every update with anticipation for the multiple lows possible to our north?
It’s fascinating to see the breadth of outcomes that come up and the rapid changes with each run.
Looks like late summer/autumn trades/ moisture is on its way.
Surfs up!!!
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/01/2018 22:46

Originally Posted By: Blowin'
Yawn.
Has anyone else been watching every update with anticipation for the multiple lows possible to our north?
It’s fascinating to see the breadth of outcomes that come up and the rapid changes with each run.
Looks like late summer/autumn trades/ moisture is on its way.
Surfs up!!!


Sure have and it looks like there could be some interesting scenarios in the near future.

Chin up people at least we aren't in Moscow where they had 6 minutes of sunlight for all of December.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/01/2018 22:48

lol except we're here in the land of tumbleweeds and endless uncomfortable heat that weather forgot.

1st graphic below = probabilities of total Week 2 precip exceeding 25mm

2nd graphic = TC probs




Posted by: redbucket

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/01/2018 10:01

Nothing on the forecast excites me at all yet.

2.4mm for January so far, and it's the bloody 22nd.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/01/2018 10:14

Extended GFS had a low coming across from the Kimberley and giving us a good drink at the end of it's run, if only that would come off. This season could be similar to the late 1980s where you had a hot and dry summer followed by a wet autumn and early winter.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/01/2018 17:52

What I would like to know is what motivates the BOM to forecast the chance of storms for the south east coast from Thursday onwards.To me by the look of those surface charts thats a remote possability.I dunno maybe I'm mossin somethin
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/01/2018 18:29

It's amazing how the Gold Coast weather is so different to the rest of the the East coast. It's the only part of the east coast from Brisbane to Newcastle that's fully overcast at the moment. The rest is clear skies.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/01/2018 19:13

The Chronicle (Toowoomba) I think (if not it was the Courier Mail), reported today in the paper that rain was coming this weekend and most of us in QLD would get a much needed drink. Ummmmmmmmm . . . . Am I missing something? I don't see much this weekend on any charts, did I read it wrong?
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/01/2018 19:23

What drugs are the BOM on saying possible storms each day for Brisbane from Thursday to Monday - i don't get it - or mainly see it ?
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/01/2018 19:24

And agree with tweedstorm
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/01/2018 19:31

There's actually some moderate instability in the showery onshore flow on many of those days with a deep onshore steering flow. But not much of a trigger. So more like a case of some of the showers becoming beefy enough to produce some localised thunder.

On some of the days, it dries out a fair bit aloft though.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/01/2018 19:47

Just more one dimensional bullcrap from the BoM's 'new and improved' automatic forecasting system. You never see something like "showers with possible local thunder" anymore, even if there is the extreme slightest of chances one of those showers produced a rumble of thunder, it's still lumped in as being a thunderstorm.

And you know what? People are stupid when it comes to the weather, the moment they see the 'T' word on the news on TV or hear it in the car, they'll expect it to happen, even when there's a 99% chance that it won't. And the Bureau's stupid wording in their forecasts are partly to blame for it.
Posted by: Gad

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/01/2018 20:00

Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
What drugs are the BOM on saying possible storms each day for Brisbane from Thursday to Monday - i don't get it - or mainly see it ?


it`s in the knowing what words mean: Probable means something is more likely to happen than not. ... Possible implies a non-zero probability, usually a very low one.

just like terms cloudy, mostly cloudy and overcast... What is said and what one understands is not necessarily the same
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/01/2018 20:01

My forecast would be something like: "Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers, most likely during the day (NOT "in the morning and afternoon" ffs) with possible local thunder". Avoid panic, stop using the word 'T Storm' on every single day whenever there's the slightest hint of instability around, and save it for days that are actually worthy of it.
Posted by: Gad

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/01/2018 20:10

I`m happy with BoM`s forecasts terminology. It outdoes; 17-29. Mostly cloudy. chance of showers.LOL
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/01/2018 20:13

With the BOM, everything has become a "chance of something"
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/01/2018 20:20

So, simple guys like me just wanna know, is it gona rain or not? Stuff percentages, vague references etc, just a simple Yes or No? The way I see it, Yes it will rain, hahaha, somewhere else but our place LOL.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/01/2018 20:24

The thing with showers (unlike widespread rain or a squall line) is that unless there's a lot of them, many places can miss out so you can't pinpoint the locations which will get wet and which ones won't. Which will then inevitably lead to the usual "You told me it was going to rain on my house but I didn't get a drop" comments. It's the nature of the beast.

But in this particular case, I think most people in coastal SE QLD will get at least something from later this week and beyond.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/01/2018 20:33

Cheers Ken. Thank you.
Fingers crossed we get something.
Posted by: Bundy

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/01/2018 20:35

Thanks Ken, as you would know better than most of us here, meteorology is not an exact science and, personally I hope it never becomes so exact that we know exactly, without a doubt, what will happen.

A large part of the interest and, I am sure, the enjoyment of many people on this site, is the uncertainty, the hope and the anticipation of what may come!
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/01/2018 20:47

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato


But in this particular case, I think most people in coastal SE QLD will get at least something from later this week and beyond.

be nice if that happens...yesterday i actually started watering sections of my yard that are dead and turning to a dust bowl. Was driving along Nudgee Rd on Saturday and looked at how brown the grass was on one of the sports fields i drove past, don't think anyone will whinge about any rain they might get.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/01/2018 21:01

You can even see a bit of a change in the skies in recent days with a bit more cloud coming in.

Looks more like just some occasional onshore showery weather for coastal parts from later this week onwards rather than any drought-breaking rain. Profiles don't look that saturated but enough to support some showers. But at least it's a nice break from the seemingly endless dry weather. Better than nothing as they say.

Some of the longer range ensembles are still hinting at the possibility of further enhanced rainfall towards the end of this month/early next month extending along much of Australia's east coast but probably still in the "I'll believe it when I see it" category.

Also, any number of lows could form along the monsoon trough up north including the Coral Sea (the EC ensemble tropical storm probability product currently has some colours in the northern & eastern Coral Sea from next week) but still a big question mark on whether any can consolidate enough into a stronger system or just remain as one of the embedded tropical lows within that long belt of vorticity (and also whether any end up getting steered SE into the graveyard or not).

Below is a 10-day accumulated rainfall graph from a few of the models for Brisbane itself:


Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/01/2018 21:08

I mowed the lawn today; took 10 seconds;involved just pulling a couple of weeds. The grass around here is now dead. Considering how bad things are drought-wise in parts of NSW, and what I posted in the Climate driver thread about the forgotten part of QLD,(probably horrible grammar there), we need a huge but not destructive rain event. The media, ESPECIALLY FM RADIO, usually twist and maul forecasts so much that they can come out totally different to what the Bureau puts out.
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/01/2018 21:40

Thanks ken and others. But a valid point there ken when you said onshore showers. You know if the Bom used this terminology in their forecasts it would make a lote more sense, because when there are on shore showers it really is a hit or miss, and mostly miss in brisbane.
Forecast should be for this thursday to Monday:
Scattered on shore showers mainly about the bayside suburbs.
This would make a lot more sense as that is exactly what is going to happen.
Thunderstorms in this setup - again, the Bom are on drugs (Sorry Ken smile )
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/01/2018 22:02

To me looking at the charts for the next 7-14 days out It has nothing that would excite me anyway for the SE, even with an active monsoon. Too much upper troughing in the coral sea. It would be better off it was located through inland QLD so it could tap into the moisture and funnel the rain towards us. Hopefully 2nd week of February something is more interesting on the horizon.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/01/2018 16:46

They have a chance of a thunderstorm all the way through from Thursday till Monday. That is extremely misleading, no matter how you look at it.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/01/2018 17:17

Check out ACCESS G haha sure you've seen it. I'm not even looking into it as nothing really seems favourable as for thunderstorms BoM must think its a possibility if they putting there. It doesnt look like your typical setup but the last I looked apart from the shear which is non existent the lapse rates looked descent and looked like cloud tops could get to a descent height...maybe onshore thundery setup up I guess they can still create heavy rainfall at times and or lightning not sure about outflows..
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/01/2018 18:09

Does not feel like storms, but interestingly a storm croton has popped up in my lawn while there has been no rain for the last fortnight.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/01/2018 18:20

It won't be your classic thunderstorm setup with hot northerly winds and severe cells steered in from the west so it won't feel like storm days.... more like some possible thunder with a few of the beefier onshore showers on some of the days.
Many people will miss out on the thunder.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/01/2018 19:07

Anywhere will be very lucky to hear a rumble of thunder in the next 5 days if you ask me. Absolutely does not warrant the usage of the 'T-Storm' word. They should just call it for what it is - a few showers with (just to cover their a$$e$) the slight chance of local thunder. It really shouldn't be that difficult.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/01/2018 20:09

https://imgur.com/a/QdeLc
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/01/2018 20:45

Originally Posted By: Blowin'


It looks like a low spins off the monsoon trough in the south-eastern Coral Sea and gets blocked by a big Tasman high. It slides west above the high before an incoming cold front sends it back out east. GFS has been interested in this for a lot of runs on and off with a decent system approaching SEQ or NSW. At no point has it ever made land fall though. I can't see it being as strong as NAVGEM suggests or as close and the timing would have to be absolutely perfect for it even to approach anyway.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/01/2018 20:54



Hooray!!! Sorry trying to learn imgur. Bloody photobucket!
Thanks NF, yes one to watch, just another possibility in the mix.
I’m off to buy all the bread and milk in the district... lol. I did service the generator on the weekend tho...
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/01/2018 20:58

So I guess.. no Thunderstorms no TC's this week or next. We should through in one for the tourist forecast for this period like mainly fine chance of a shower possibly somewhere other to where you are.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/01/2018 21:01

Mostly fine, isolated Armageddon
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/01/2018 21:10

Haha good one
Posted by: Footsoldier

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/01/2018 21:15

No love for this on any other model....
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/01/2018 21:43

Love the colour, make it so!
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/01/2018 22:42

Cat 3 just off the coast of brissy.... tell him he's dreamin'! grin Mind you AccessG and EC are interested in half decent falls over SEQ in the first few days of Feb though. Would be nice, we are back to near drought conditions here, tanks still largely full from late Dec rain but everything else is withered and dried to a crisp, high evap rates from the hot, sunny days not helping either. Fingers, toes, just about everything else crossed for some rain!
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 24/01/2018 00:29

Originally Posted By: Blowin'
Mostly fine, isolated Armageddon

It's already Armageddon here. wink Earthquakes galore!
Quote:
Geoscience Australia has said residents living in areas between Port Macquarie and Coffs Harbour will continue to experience earthquakes and should take the opportunity to educate themselves on earthquake safety.

At 3.30pm January 23 there were 10 earthquakes recorded since January 19 ranging between 2.0 and 3.1 in magnitude. Towns right along the Mid North Coast are being affected by the tremors including South West Rocks, Stuarts Point, Dorrigo, Armidale, Hat Head, Eungai and Macksville.
https://www.macleayargus.com.au/story/5184848/earthquakes-will-continue-experts-say/?cs=5796

Nice weather for the holidaymakers. Perhaps a few millimetres or so out of the onshore flow later this week, just to change things up from the fine weather over the past week and a half.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 24/01/2018 07:01

The thing that is different with this setup is, the high in the tasman is now giving us a easterly feed, previous high's were giving us a more northerly air feed, so i'm unsure as to why the shape of the high has changed compared to previous highs.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 24/01/2018 08:02

Just out at the chickens and we have very light rain, five eights of sweet stuff all but it is wet stuff.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 24/01/2018 08:03

That High over the Tasman and New Zealand is becoming a permanent feature. I'm sick of the sight of it.Things might get interesting next week though if that Coral Sea low shifts west and almagamates with aninland low.Hope it comes off.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 24/01/2018 10:31

28C, 65%RH & partly cloudy atm.
Feels like a change in the weather is forthcoming with the local wildlife letting itself be heard. There is croaking & cuckooing going on, just need to see a few black cockatoos to confirm.
Next week looks a bit intetesting with models still all over the place & the chance of thunderstorms next few days BOM says? Theres gona have to be some pretty wicked big clouds from the east to produce them, hope something does comes along.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 24/01/2018 15:44

...
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 24/01/2018 15:53

Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
That High over the Tasman and New Zealand is becoming a permanent feature. I'm sick of the sight of it.Things might get interesting next week though if that Coral Sea low shifts west and almagamates with aninland low.Hope it comes off.


The high is actually perfectly positioned for once, but a developing upper trough higher up over the Coral Sea is what will steer everything away to the SE.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 24/01/2018 17:58

And so it begins:

Thursday 25 January
Brisbane area
Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Winds easterly 15 to 25 km/h tending northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening then becoming light in the late evening.

Friday 26 January
Brisbane area
Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Light winds becoming easterly 20 to 30 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the evening.
Posted by: Stormwalker

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 24/01/2018 18:21

Yeah, I’m not expecting much from this lot. I reckon it’ll all be offshore (if anything).
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 24/01/2018 18:44

Thanks Mega yeah we just can't seem to win eh
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 24/01/2018 19:56

Looks lik im winning , I reckon we have had about 5mm in the last half hr here under a pretty decent shower. Which is still going.
Posted by: Jaeger

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/01/2018 06:49

Originally Posted By: BIG T
Looks lik im winning , I reckon we have had about 5mm in the last half hr here under a pretty decent shower. Which is still going.


A welcome 13.2mm at Ferny Hills so far, 9.4mm from the first rain band (approx. 7-8pm).
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/01/2018 07:56

Yes. I just tipped out 15mm , must admit I didn’t see that coming at all. Hopefully there may be a bit more.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/01/2018 08:18

Trace rain at Wynnum Nth, both yesterday and today.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/01/2018 09:05

2.6mm here from an overnight thundery shower at 2am which came from the East.

I was on my afternoon run and saw the cell to the south which gave Big T his rain, at one point it had a nice big billowing mushroom embedded in it.

It gave me hope for today but by the look of the forecast I shouldn't expect much.
Posted by: Golden State

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/01/2018 12:57

LoL Nina
Posted by: Bone Dry

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/01/2018 13:10

It's been raining heaps here too. I reckon a solid 20mm last couple of days. Shame it's dead gum leaves falling and not the wet stuff.

Staring down the realistic probability of having the lowest January rainfall since 2003.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/01/2018 16:04

Never mind people only 8 months to go until the next storm season.In the meantime just a shower would be a bonus.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/01/2018 16:43

March will be better as shear will increase its just a crap time of the year for a storm enthusiast.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/01/2018 17:48

Thanks Stevo been a pretty crap storm season though I.ve counted about 16 in this area lot less than last year thats for sure. On a sadder note if any of you people here are familiar with the Storm Chasers series put out on the Discovery Channel a second member of the cast has passed away only 38years old His name was Joel Taylor who drove for the Reed Timmer team.His death was from an unknown cause however,unlike Tim Samaris who died doing what he loved most . . Chasing tornadoes
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/01/2018 17:49

You had me for a second there Bone Dry, we're doing surprisingly well for feed but the creeks are struggling a bit again. If this winter is anything like 2017 we will need a huge heap of rain in the next few months to get through.


On a more positive note, it's been good to see some decent rain for the people up north who have been struggling. Fingers crossed it moves further south and Ross River Dam gets a good top up.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/01/2018 19:11

NAVGEM still going for a Cat-2 crossing in SEQ/NENSW or coming very close on Monday next week. No other model is interested though.

Might see some rumbles late next week with a southerly change but all in all it's very quiet and dry. It looks to stay that way for quite some time.
Posted by: Lewis

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/01/2018 20:39

Isn't NAVGEM the old NOGAPS - which was pretty unreliable if I recall correctly? The ridge looks like it simply won't budge, I can't see how we'll be staring down the barrel of a Cat 2 in four days time. You'd need something a lot stronger to break it down.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/01/2018 20:41

Originally Posted By: Lewis
Isn't NAVGEM the old NOGAPS

Yep.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/01/2018 21:03

Originally Posted By: Lewis
Isn't NAVGEM the old NOGAPS - which was pretty unreliable if I recall correctly? The ridge looks like it simply won't budge, I can't see how we'll be staring down the barrel of a Cat 2 in four days time. You'd need something a lot stronger to break it down.


Gulf low = slow moving upper trough through inland QLD to drag it down
Coral Sea trough / low = Deep ridge through Tasman / Coral Sea along with upper trough through inland QLD to lure it southward. Without upper trough over interior, CS trough / low would head towards NQ along ridge. Either way, none of this exists. The way we have it is:

Low-mid level Tasman Sea ridge (check)
But broad upper troughing 1000 miles off the coas
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/01/2018 21:14

*t, above this ridging, so anything in the CS that gains any sort of depth to it along the MT heads S or SE. We can blame the ridge as much as we want but the fact of the matter is that it's the troughing above it that's really stuffing the CS up.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/01/2018 22:11

The other way would be for the upper trough to retrograde westward, which this one does do, but for not nearly long enough as the ridge below it is quickly eroded by a new strengthening frontal trough sweeping across SE Australia early next week. So many things have to align and unfortunately this time it's looking like they won't.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/01/2018 08:32

When it comes to showing something interesting at the end of it's run and then changing to the reality of nothing the supposed mighty EC is as bad as the rest. Just look at this morning. One thing though with nothing in sight it will probably make very interesting reading when the rainfall charts and discussions of December and Jan come out. Even this mornings NOAA SST anomaly charts shows the above average ssts off a lot of the central east coast of Austalia disappearing.
After my cheery post, have a great day everybody.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/01/2018 09:38

I'd imagine the rainfall charts for December and January will come in below average. January 2013 was dry until Oswald came through and it was wet until about June of that year. The SOI is in a rapidly rising phase which is a good sign for rain and CFS has a wet signal starting from next week.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/01/2018 09:52

Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
When it comes to showing something interesting at the end of it's run and then changing to the reality of nothing the supposed mighty EC is as bad as the rest. Just look at this morning.

No, it is not as bad as the rest. And it is not the "supposed" mighty EC. ALL deterministic models whether it'd be GFS, EC or any others will be far less accurate towards the end of their runs and scenarios will often chop and change wildly. What do you expect. It's just that on average, EC will very often be closer to the mark than extended GFS and not only subjective assessments show that but it's also shows up very clearly in objective skill stats every month, every year, for decades. The mere fact that a model changes its forecasts at long ranges from run to run should tell you it's foolish to rely on a single run at long range.
Not sure why people even bother looking at something like extended GFS beyond several days to be honest either except for pure entertainment purposes. Sometimes it gets it right but so does a broken clock twice a day. Multimodel ensembles do better on average than any single model.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/01/2018 10:15

I agree with what you about extended gfs Ken. In the end there is still plenty of time for rain but up this way, it must be getting to desperation stage. In the end, I am nobody and I try to keep it simple for myself that is.
Cheers
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/01/2018 11:18

Hi all not much to report out here ,Pretty dry though grass is dead lots of dust.Other than that have a great day all.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/01/2018 15:34

Few cells starting to fire up around St George and Surat. Hopefully i might get some rain out of it .
Posted by: PlumbBob

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/01/2018 15:38

Storm Season, they say,,, is not a season a period of months, Lol, not ere in the SE corner for the most part - Storm periods more like it, Lol, 2 weeks late in the year, and maybe another 2 weeks early Autumn, haha !
That is all !
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/01/2018 16:31

Looks like the radar is down, whatever we do get I won't see coming I guess haha.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/01/2018 16:54

I cant work out why the storms are so active down Sydney way and northern NSW? It's so humid on the Gold Coast and not a storm in sight? Is the weather more unstable down Sydney way?
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/01/2018 16:59

Originally Posted By: gleno71
I cant work out why the storms are so active down Sydney way and northern NSW? It's so humid on the Gold Coast and not a storm in sight? Is the weather more unstable down Sydney way?

Basically down here we have an active trough sitting south-west of us it hasn't moved for a good number of days. Hence the continued stormy weather, but i haven't got a drop of any of that.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/01/2018 17:16

Looks like Warwick might be about to get a drink, here's hoping!
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/01/2018 18:14

I think every time I have done this the storms disintegrate in 5 seconds but here goes; the Warwick gliding club webcam which I assume is west of Warwick. If this has the same effect I apologize to the Warwick area and I will never do it again.
http://www.warwickgliding.org/index.php/about/webcam
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/01/2018 19:35

I gpt so frustrated with it all and ended packin the car and goin for a drive down to Tenterfield.Turned out to be an absolute treat all afternoon and just experienced a violent cell near Tabulum on the way back with almost whiteout conditions.Great Australia Day for me albeit a little different to the average Aussie
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/01/2018 22:05

Well, no rain to speak of here. It all fell apart as mentioned right on our doorstep. Good call Pete.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/01/2018 22:12

Michael, your back!
I would much rather had been completely wrong. It is so dry here, must be barren down there.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/01/2018 23:27

Season is [censored].
Nect year maybe
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/01/2018 09:40

Hi all missed out last night ,Rain went to the west so someone got it .
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/01/2018 11:17

Hey Pete, yes, I am back. Enjoyed the coolness of NZ for two weeks. Only light drizzle down there at times, so we were lucky with overall nice weather.
Yup, parched as can be around here. The first week of this month provided us with 32mm, nothing since. The heaviest event being 15mm in a heavy shower. This was our heaviest one time rain event since March 31 of 2017. All of our hardy hedges and shrubs have not had a good drink in almost 10 months. They are looking really sad right now, even worse than back in 2009. I think we might have to wait until next spring...
Hope I am wrong.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/01/2018 11:18

Looks like a nice cool down however in about a weeks time. Something to look forward to!
Posted by: Golden State

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/01/2018 12:06

Then in a week’s time said cool change will still be in a weeks time, just like the rain.. and on and on we go
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/01/2018 12:07

Originally Posted By: Golden State
Then in a week’s time said cool change will still be in a weeks time, just like the rain.. and on and on we go

Significant temperature changes are generally a lot easier to predict than rainfall amounts.
It's a bit of a case of apples vs oranges.
Posted by: Sillybanter

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/01/2018 14:56

First rain for what seems like forever here in Toowoomba. Only about 4mm but was very nice.
Posted by: T.rex

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/01/2018 22:21

Well, Sillybanter, who was lucky? I got wet walking in town at about 1.30pm, but out at Mt Lofty, we didn't add to the grand total of 1.5mm this month. So your 4mm today is 267% of our total for the year.
Down the Lockyer Valley towards Helidon, it looked as if they might have had a decent shower, but I haven't seen any figures.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/01/2018 22:40

Storms removed from Sunday and Monday's forecast. LOL
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 07:51

Actually the latest AccessR runs look not too bad for the week and at least we should see some nice tropical cloudscapes during the earlier part of this week
Posted by: gberg

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 10:01

Suprised to see 20mm in the gauge this morning from overnight showers. Pity its not more widespread.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 10:07

Originally Posted By: gberg
Suprised to see 20mm in the gauge this morning from overnight showers. Pity its not more widespread.
can you send some of that this way please...had 1.5mm in the gauge from a shower overnight a few days ago, and just had a very quick heavy shower drop 0.8mm here about 15 minutes ago, but other then that it's been a pretty dry affair of late. Need plenty more then that though, I nearly choked on the dust at times mowing the lawn yesterday afternoon...lol.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 10:42

0.5mm here in the last 400 days.
Well feels like it
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 11:32

Good scattering of showers in the region at the moment.

Had a single rogue soft rumble of thunder from one of the heavier ones nearby but hasn't showed up on tracker so was probably one of the cloud to cloud strokes that slipped through the cracks.


Posted by: Sandstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 11:35

some good heavy showers at Highvale at the moment....might just take the crunch out of the grass...for one day anyway.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 11:39

Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Actually the latest AccessR runs look not too bad for the week and at least we should see some nice tropical cloudscapes during the earlier part of this week


I noticed the low clouds are towering up compared to your typical low cloud you get from onshore winds. Very photogenic
Posted by: StormyAndy

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 11:45

Around 10am this morning, had a very heavy shower at Indooroopilly. 13mm in our rain gauge in about 7 minutes. Heard one rumble of thunder.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 12:14

The same upper trough that is causing these showers being slightly enhanced in the onshore flow is what's taking all the tropical activity into the graveyard.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 12:39

We had 2.5mm the day before yesterday and 1.7mm yesterday. East end of Warwick yesterday received a good downpour. West end of Warwick not doing so well this sessson. It was the exact opposite the season before when we seemed to score the goods. Hoping for a good shower today from the activity coming in from the east. Never expect much from these setups however as the range seems to suck the life out of them. Killarney seems to do well but.....
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 13:12

Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
The same upper trough that is causing these showers being slightly enhanced in the onshore flow is what's taking all the tropical activity into the graveyard.


At least we get some showers out of it. Nice on the coast but not getting a long way inland.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 14:16

Some lightning also occurring just east of Mad Elf's area too.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 14:19

Like I said, thundery showers, or for a better term, showers with the odd rumble of thunder. Certainly not outright thunderstorms.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 15:36

Thundershower? I'd like to see that in the forecast instead
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 15:44

Originally Posted By: Steve O
Thundershower? I'd like to see that in the forecast instead


'Musical cooling down shower'

Don't want to disrupt tourism now do you?
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 15:45

11.1mm in the gauge here today from these showers
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 15:59

Yeah Ken, almost white out on the Gatton Esk Rd south of the Atkinson turn off. Lovely thundery stuff, only to dry out 4k's from home, LOL.
Posted by: Foehn Correspondent

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 15:59

May be we should stick with the media protocol:

Mini Thunderstorm
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 16:11

Showers, possible local thunder.

Anyways, I guess 1 day out of 5 ain't bad.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 16:12

Nothing bay side. Not a thing
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 16:31

Originally Posted By: Mega
Showers, possible local thunder.

Anyways, I guess 1 day out of 5 ain't bad.


lol 2 out of 5 actually - there was very localised thunder on the northside of Brisbane overnight Wed/early Thursday morning laugh
(if you don't count all the lightning that also occurred in the far southwest and southern parts of the SEC district and inland NE NSW on the other days).
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 18:55

ANother 15mm here overnight and today.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 19:29

Wonder what WATL will show for the week when we wake up tomorrow morning. Now, this is NO criticism of models, just despair about the weather pattern. I am possibly writing this too early but I have a measure of confidence that when the statistics are released for January the combined rainfall deciles for DEC/JAN are going to show Jaw-dropping rainfall deficiencies for southern and central QLD and parts of NSW. Still hoping for a big event soon.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 19:34

The percentage of average rainfall analysis so far for this month sure paints a sobering picture NoSoHopefulPete (unless you're in the west or the tropics):


Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 20:15

Thanks for that map Ken. Here's hoping for a wetter Feb.
Posted by: Golden State

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 20:44

What the heck is going on next Friday / Saturday? max temp of 24 ? That is a significant dip for SEQ for this time of year
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 20:47

Surge of S to SE winds combined with possible showers & cloud... the cooler temps have been in the models for awhile now. Should be a nice break from this mugginess.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 22:23

Onshore showers brought 4.0mm in the 24hrs to 9am, and 9.2mm since 9am. It ended a 12-day dry spell (longest dry spell since mid/late September last year). There was a scattering of brief thunderstorms over the northern MNC during the late morning and early afternoon.

Surpassed our summer average (434.9mm) overnight, with 446.0mm so far this summer (getting 236.8mm of that on Boxing Day alone certainly helped out).
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 22:38

5.8mm here today from a heavy shower this morning, very happy to see something this weekend.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 22:51

Looking ahead it's a south Pacific cyclone party and we get ridging with an occasional onshore shower. Not good.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/01/2018 23:17

We should be lucky that we aren't facing a water crisis like Cape Town is at the moment.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/01/2018 01:05

All I can say is that I'm sure as hell grateful to have been able to go on an overseas holiday this year.

It was such a refreshing change to take a break from the world of nothing but incessantly monotonous weather for 10 months of the year, the constant droughts and desperation for 1mm of rain, dying grass, fizzers and upper troughs and stubborn highs... and experience dynamic and varied weather instead.
I do enjoy it when we get exciting weather here as well but let's face it, it usually only takes up a very small minority of the year and the rest of the time, it's just partly sunny.

I recently came back from Japan where they had a big winter storm system that bombed to around 960hpa just off the coast (common off northern Japan), 20cm of snow in Tokyo and over 2 metres in alpine areas, and warnings galore for blizzards, heavy snow, avalanche, thunderstorms, gales, high waves and very low temps.
I just happened to be there during the coldest polar outbreak of the winter and 850hpa temps down to -12C. Good stuff.

There was even a tornado that formed in Hokkaido just north of the warm front as well as lots of lightning and thundersnow... and destructive wind gusts close to 160km/hr.

I'm hoping that'll tide me over for awhile and help me get through the so-called weather here laugh
Some photos below:








Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/01/2018 06:29

Yep it was a good move that Ken ,the weather Gods led ya there thats for sure! As I mentioned a couple of days ago I drove about 200kms out to Tenterfield to see some thunderstorms.Some would think thats desperado stuff especially since nothing severe was predicted.But as it turned out I was rewarded with thunder ,lightning ,cooling rain all afternoon and a very severe cell on my way back to Casino with heavy rain,big close CG lightning and strong wind gusts.It certainly gave me my storm fix for a while!
Sometimes to escape the monotony and that confounded ridge, its very worthwhile to just pack ya car, throw the dog in and go for a drive out to a target area when there is strong possability of excitement and enjoy the day and its scenery.I might do more day trips out to the scenic rim.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/01/2018 07:31

Getting very concerned for the coming season. This is the driest start to a year I've seen in the 5 years we've had our property. Going to be a hard season for everyone's livestock with no grass and no hay if we dont get some really decent falls before it starts to cool off. frown
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/01/2018 08:28

Stunning pictures Ken. I see the latest Watl suddenly seems to have a lot of rain over especially inland QLD but fades away very quickly towards the southern border. Of course, I will just have to see every update hoping it will come south or will it be pushed north etc, etc.
have a great day everybody.
Posted by: Sandstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/01/2018 08:48

Well I am probably the only one here happy with the past 24 hours weather. We had 37.5mm at Highvale from the constant stream of showers yesterday. They didn’t look much on the Marburg radar (stappy still dead) however each passing shower was like a tropical downpour, some lasting for up to 10 mins.
So happy!!!!
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/01/2018 09:03

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato


It was such a refreshing change to take a break from the world of nothing but incessantly monotonous weather for 10 months of the year, the constant droughts and desperation for 1mm of rain, dying grass, fizzers and upper troughs and stubborn highs...



I think you need to change your tag to NotsohopefulKen

Lol
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/01/2018 09:10

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The percentage of average rainfall analysis so far for this month sure paints a sobering picture NoSoHopefulPete (unless you're in the west or the tropics):






I noticed on most occasiona, when we get a dry spell, Perth seems to get the opposite with wet weather. However Perth's climate is true to the seasons, wet winter and dry summer, which in my view that's how the seasons are supposed to work anyways.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/01/2018 09:13

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 0.6mm.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/01/2018 09:21

Steady on Mike. No need to insult Ken.Lol. This may shock you but I think your last few posts on that other thread has been a very accurate assessment.
cheers
Posted by: redbucket

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/01/2018 10:28

Well, I could have fainted yesterday. We got under a few of the showers from the ESE yesterday, and received 13.8mm of rain between 10am and 3pm. Takes January to 16.2mm.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/01/2018 11:07

Onya redbucket, glad you got some.
We are still waiting for something, this mornings cloudcover looks promising.
Lovely downpour on Gatton Esk rd yesterday near Krenskes farm, had to slow right down, felt like driving a boat.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/01/2018 11:07

0.5mm all up. Yaaa
Posted by: Foehn Correspondent

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/01/2018 13:46

Originally Posted By: Sandstorm
Well I am probably the only one here happy with the past 24 hours weather. We had 37.5mm at Highvale from the constant stream of showers yesterday. They didn’t look much on the Marburg radar (stappy still dead) however each passing shower was like a tropical downpour, some lasting for up to 10 mins.
So happy!!!!


Join the club Sandstorm 22 mm here to 0900 this morning. Must have something to do with the hills. No watering this week.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/01/2018 15:10

Just as expected some beautiful tropical cumulonimbus off the coast down here.Look quite impressive but not much on the radar and no lightning detected.
Posted by: wet sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/01/2018 16:59

some decent thunder here, and heavy rain. Good to see stapy up again too.

edit- some more (quite loud) thunder. I don't care which direction its coming from, I calling this a storm in my books smile.
Posted by: redbucket

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/01/2018 17:02

WATL showing a bit more colour in Qld as of Friday onwards. Hopefully it holds!
Posted by: wetdreams

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/01/2018 18:54

We managed 18mm in the last 36 hours or so.
Brings our grand total for January up to 28mm....
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/01/2018 18:59

Max of 24 on fri , love to see that , be a rare thing in feb to have maximums under that level I’m guessing.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/01/2018 19:01

1.5mm today, good start. Wed onwards BOM forecast of possible rain is a breath of fresh air! Cooler temps as well. Bloody aircon costing a fortune. Bring it on!
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/01/2018 09:03

Wynnum Nth 24 hour 0.8mm and 12.2mm for the month, which ends at 0900 tomorrow, weatherwise.
Posted by: grayarea

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/01/2018 09:39

Well at Doonan we have had very little rain over the past few days (6mm since last Friday). Onshore showers have died as the approached the coast then reformed behind us inland. Not sure why.
So far this morning onshore showers are dying as soon as they hit land but now not forming behind. BOM however are more upbeat about rainfall today.
Posted by: gberg

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/01/2018 10:57

Originally Posted By: grayarea
Well at Doonan we have had very little rain over the past few days (6mm since last Friday). Onshore showers have died as the approached the coast then reformed behind us inland. Not sure why.
So far this morning onshore showers are dying as soon as they hit land but now not forming behind. BOM however are more upbeat about rainfall today.


Think its just luck of the draw there Grayarea, i live just up the road in bushlands estate and we have had 30mm since friday.. Today is looking better, just started raining here in marcoola and there are plenty more heavy showers sitting off the coast heading in this general direction.
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/01/2018 12:41

Getting some nice solid rain in Noosa right now, just had a big clap of thunder too. Next to nothing out at Kin Kin so far but fingers crossed.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/01/2018 12:50

1.5mm in the last 2 weeks. .better than 0 i suppose
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/01/2018 12:59

Hi all .So far this month zero rain fall ,Though may get a few showers Thurs day and Friday.Hope so .
Glad its not Capetown Africa which will run out of water on 20th April unless rain. Going to be interesting first time a major city runs out of water.They have had no rain for 3 years.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/01/2018 14:59

OK, credit to the BoM where it's due. They seem to have got it right for this area today. Hearing some loud booms of thunder this afternoon from the activity to our west.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/01/2018 15:01

Plenty of rumbles just nth west of home.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/01/2018 16:02

Some nice cells, though not severe at this stage in the scenic rim area. I'm finding it hard to believe Brisbane is going for "mostly sunny" for Wednesday, seeing where still in a strong onshore flow. Good news though for the lunar eclipse. I still suspect there will be some cloud about.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/01/2018 17:02

Not much happening in the uppers, any cloud probably would be very scattered cloud with the onshore flow but the change last I saw looked pretty good,shame there's no descent trough.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/01/2018 19:20

1.5mm on Sunday brings our monthly rainfall total to 38mm. One more hot day tomorrow then a nice early Feb. treat coming up! Expecting a windy high of 21 on Thurs., then only slightly warmer for Fri and Sat. Looks like the next week will be a bonus.
Posted by: Sandstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/01/2018 20:28

Another 18.5mm at Highvale in the gauge this morning 😀
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/01/2018 20:38

I had enough rain to see the garden fading to brown showing some green, but still has a heat suffering look.
Locally here the ants don't appear interested in activity for wet weather.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/01/2018 20:40

I took a few casual opportunistic shots with my phone of today's activity from Sunnybank and Wishart this afternoon - these were the views:








Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/01/2018 20:46

Awesome photos Ken
Posted by: Homer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/01/2018 20:47

Yeh, some spectacular cloudscapes there Ken.
Wonderful!!
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/01/2018 21:49

Thanks for posting great pics Ken.
Watching the clouds build east of Somerset this afteroon before the storms was awesome.
Posted by: Footsoldier

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/01/2018 22:20

Great photos Ken. I am curious about something. At this time of year I happen to notice more of those billowing, puffy cumulo-nimbus clouds (as opposed to November for example when the storm structures seem to be a little more "linear" if that makes sense. Is there something to that?

Here are some examples of shots I have taken all at this time of year (in different years) to illustrate my point:-

https://photos.app.goo.gl/AMKA0O3tXRkexSjj1

https://photos.app.goo.gl/gURIm0JLXrMlYjbB3

Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/01/2018 22:23

Well done Ken, amazing pics
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/01/2018 23:03

Nice work on the Japan and today's pics, Ken.

4.2mm in the 24hrs to 9am this morning. No rain today. Perhaps a little light rain may fall here tomorrow evening.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/01/2018 08:33

Are we likely to have cloud during the lunar event tonight? Looking at GFS the change and about 30% cloud cover is around at 10 pm tonight and progressively gets worse in the hours afterward.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/01/2018 08:41

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Are we likely to have cloud during the lunar event tonight? Looking at GFS the change and about 30% cloud cover is around at 10 pm tonight and progressively gets worse in the hours afterward.


EC's still going for cloud cover to overspread the region by then - see example for 10pm below (after winds have gradually turned more S to SE) but it only takes a few decent gaps in the cloud at the right time to allow you to see it.

Tomorrow still looks showery cloudy and much cooler (the cloud cover and showers will help). The official forecast currently has patchy rain but it shouldn't really be a widespread soaking rain event because there's little upper support and profiles aren't too saturated (but do have a fair bit of moisture and steering winds for showers are from a more SE onshore direction which should help)... so I think more a mix of frequent showers/patchy rain at best.

Heat looks like returning next week.


P.S. thanks for the compliments re the photos guys






Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/01/2018 10:20

Originally Posted By: Footsoldier
Great photos Ken. I am curious about something. At this time of year I happen to notice more of those billowing, puffy cumulo-nimbus clouds (as opposed to November for example when the storm structures seem to be a little more "linear" if that makes sense. Is there something to that?

Here are some examples of shots I have taken all at this time of year (in different years) to illustrate my point:-

https://photos.app.goo.gl/AMKA0O3tXRkexSjj1

https://photos.app.goo.gl/gURIm0JLXrMlYjbB3



Do you mean that November is more a cloud growing straight up in a single plume, whereas now is more spreading with multiple rounder plumes? I suspect it might be more capping and/or drier air in November. Not much happening in the mid atmosphere, until the lower atmosphere gathers enough energy and moisture to punch through the stable mids with one big strong pillar. This time of year as a cloud starts to grow the middle atmosphere is less capped and/or more moist so a weaker initial draft can push up slower, and there is more time, and more tendency for the updraft to grow sideways as well as up.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/01/2018 10:33

Yeah sadly its not going to plan with mid level cloud forecasted to cover the region around eclipse time. I cannot believe eastern Australia's luck when it comes to eclipses. I think the last few partial solar eclipses there was overcast skies in Sydney, I suppose the 2028 total eclipse in Sydney will be overcast as well. Though being july they generally get clear skies
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/01/2018 15:27

Stinking hot 38.3C
Bring on the cool & a bit of rain!!
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/01/2018 16:58

The change just arrived here not 2 mins ago, temp dropping as I type, noice.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/01/2018 17:30

Interesting line of dark clouds building to the south.
Bit of action way south on Stapy.
Wonder if anything will make it this far north?
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/01/2018 17:52

Nah sorry Mad its coming to me...haha
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/01/2018 18:30

Yep, as usual it's hit Springbrook and split, not much to the south sorry Tweedstorm but certainly headin towards Steve O. Enjoy
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/01/2018 18:45

That cell west of Boonah looks intetesting. Its not cooling down yet, still 31C with sometimes gusty NE & still quite dark to the SW. Fingers crossed.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/01/2018 18:57

Firing up at last south of T'ba, this way girl!
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/01/2018 20:14

A bit to the right please!
Thats nice, lightning as well, ooohh!
Thunder, yessss!
Posted by: redbucket

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/01/2018 20:26

Been rumbling here for the past 45mins. No rain though. So close I can smell it.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/01/2018 20:29

Yea, looking good for us, starting up now, yours isnt far away Red.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/01/2018 21:16

5mm & much cooler.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/01/2018 21:20

Yaa.0.5mm again.
Yipppeeee
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/01/2018 22:41

Should be a STW out for the cell that just swiped us! Massive wind gusts, torrential rain, hail to grape size and we just copped the edge of it. eek What a way to break a dry spell and dfinitely not what I was expecting this evening!! Just about to head out to check for any damage and rain gauge...
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/01/2018 22:53

Originally Posted By: LightningGus
Should be a STW out for the cell that just swiped us! Massive wind gusts, torrential rain, hail to grape size and we just copped the edge of it. eek What a way to break a dry spell and definitely not what I was expecting this evening!! Just about to head out to check for any damage and rain gauge...
Was a bit on the blustery side huh? You guys got a bit more that side of town, going by the airport reading 30mm in 30 minutes. I think we'd peak at 20mm ... so far because this side of town is getting extra from that cell that started around Bell (wonder if Lani got anything?)
All I can say is thank gawd I don't have to sleep in air con again tonight; it kills my breathing.
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/01/2018 23:02

Yeah lovely and cool now hey Kazz. That cell seemed to be riding the south-easterly change, certainly caught me off guard! Also the first time I have ever seen hail at night other than a spattering of pea sized stones on a few occasions. Was pretty sparse and only lasted a few minutes but some decent grape sized stones in the mix and they made a hell of a noise being thrown at the tin roof by the wind.

Ps. 32mm in the bucket and no damage that I can spot in the torchlight other than a few tree branches down.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/01/2018 23:12

I was watching for hail; just didn't make it this far though.
We've got one last heavy sower right now again, lol. Makes me wish I went to bed when the power went off for a few minutes; would have been a nice way to fall asleep.

Well, there's certainly electricity & moisture in the system for tomorrow now; should be good.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/02/2018 00:59

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato


It was such a refreshing change to take a break from the world of nothing but incessantly monotonous weather for 10 months of the year, the constant droughts and desperation for 1mm of rain, dying grass, fizzers and upper troughs and stubborn highs...



I think you need to change your tag to NotsohopefulKen

Lol

Haha I'm usually a lot more hopeful of the weather when I'm overseas where the weather often has so much more variety and is so dynamic.


Originally Posted By: gleno71
I noticed on most occasiona, when we get a dry spell, Perth seems to get the opposite with wet weather. However Perth's climate is true to the seasons, wet winter and dry summer, which in my view that's how the seasons are supposed to work anyways.

Yep that makes sense because when we're under the influence of longwave ridging, the typical lengths of the hemispheric waves mean that WA is often being affected by longwave troughing. Perth also has a mediterranean climate where dry hot summers and wet winters are the norm. I like that kind of regime except I wouldn't like the extreme heat it often endures in summer.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/02/2018 01:12

Although the radar might look somewhat pretty with rainfall from this morning onwards (midnight as I type), I'm still expecting most rainfall amounts will be reasonably modest in our region due to the lack of upper support, moist but not saturated soundings and lack of surface features to focus the rainfall.... but still showery (helped by the steering flow in the low levels being more SE'ly) and a lot cooler with the SSE winds, especially with the cloud cover & showers.

In fact, the next couple of days look similar with showers and cooler weather before heat returns next week.

No major heavy rain events likely for our region within the next couple of weeks either unless the heavier drenching rain over central QLD extends further south than forecast early this weekend.

No surprises with the January rainfall deciles below either with the tropics and the west getting drenched while we stayed very dry:






Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/02/2018 05:52

Well, I am amazed by some of the rainfalls over SEQLD. Wish that would happen here and to the south and west. The drought up or down this way is like a nightmare you can't wake up from.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/02/2018 07:21

3.9mm overnight for Salisbury from that showery activity....should help keep the grass from going crunchy
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/02/2018 07:45

80 odd mm at both Maroochydore & Beerburrum, I'm sure there would have been others who were lucky enough to be under one of those slow moving cells last night. Looking forward to the cool & overcast weather tbh, sick of these endless sunny days.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/02/2018 09:02

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 3.8mm.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/02/2018 09:23

57mm in 90 minutes from last nights surprising storm efforts. Models forecasting more widespread falls of rain during tomorrow and Saturday. Looks like it's caused more so by a middle level trough.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/02/2018 10:24

3mm here last night and early this morning. Much cooler and windy as expected. Opened my refrigerator and could not tell the difference between the air coming out of the refrigerator and the air blowing through the house, lol. Almost need a jumper. 17.5 C at the moment. 21 C expected today and 20 C tomorrow. It warms up next week but only to 31-32C with low humidity, so even then it should not be too bad. Unless things change....
Posted by: Stephen

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/02/2018 11:50

93mm to 9am here at Buderim. So much better than expected.
By the way, is anyone else not able to view the raincast section of BSCH GFS? Been white and empty for the last few days.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/02/2018 12:20

Beat me to it Stephen, I was about to ask the same question. It hasn't worked for a while now. Nothing at Jimbour yet, I could see the lightning over Kingaroy though. (Seemed to just sideswipe us Kazza and Bell missed out too)
Posted by: pabloako

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/02/2018 13:56

30mm over night here, which was much more than expected. Tanks are topped up again.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/02/2018 15:21

2mm
Tanks are on e for empty
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/02/2018 17:44

My 5000 litre tank empty too.
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/02/2018 19:51

Ended up with 38mm last night which almost tripled my Jan 2018 total. Tanks are mostly full here again but I guess we were just lucky for once to get under a heavy storm. Pretty severe wind damage just a few k's to the SE of my place with sheds unroofed and a swathe of massive gums toppled, glad all that bypassed us.

18C forecast max here tomorrow, will come as a shock after weeks of 30C+ temperatures. Near record territory for February, will be the coolest summer day in a long time if it does come off.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 08:19

10.5mm last night and raining again. Please keep going smile
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 08:32

12mm so far & still light rain. Fantastic.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 08:35

Anyone got a quick tech description of the atmosphere and what's the factors generating today's weather please. In particular why it has now increased from yesterdays forecast.
Thx
Posted by: StormQueen

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 08:37

Originally Posted By: DDstorm
Anyone got a quick tech description of the atmosphere and what's the factors generating today's weather please. In particular why it has now increased from yesterdays forecast.
Thx


Especially with the increase in forecasted rain tomorrow as well.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 09:07

Wynnum Nth rain since 0900 Thu 10.0mm.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 10:37

13mm, 24hr total.
Still drizzling, Mt H gone in the mist,
17.8C, fantastic Tassie like weather and same tomorrow BOM says, yeay!!
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 10:45

Hi all, 2mm over night at my place. Hope to get some more today ,Although its to to the west at the moment.Took the dog out at about midnight and was a lot of fog around.
Posted by: Ben

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 11:05

Wondering what the potential is for some record cold February temps today.. e.g. Coolangatta so far at 18c, with record low February max of 22.9 (and ACCESS C not hinting at it getting anywhere near that warm). Sure is a bit of a change up!
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 11:49

Just amazing the temp difference, a couple days ago knocking near 39C, today flat out reaching 18.5C, still raining, a bit heavier now.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 11:57

14.7 C with wind and moderate rain. 14mm over the last 2 days so far. Crazy stuff for sure!
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 14:19

Climate change. The heating of planet is making cool temps
Posted by: signalman

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 14:21

22mm in North Warwick over the same period Warwick Eye. Hopefully another 10mm on offer overnight and into tomorrow. The green tinges now showing through show just how burnt and dead our lawns had become. Interesting couple of days with showers from the west against easterly and south-easterly winds particularly overnight. Good to see extensive areas getting a bit of relief from what has been dry and hot conditions for some time.
Posted by: seaweed

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 15:02

Gold Coast may also break it's lowest maximum. Currently 20.4 and it doesn't look like it will get to the 22.3C set in 1996.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 16:25

We won't officially know which max temps today broke records until 9am tomorrow (excluding any 9am to 3pm max temp record breakers today).

Any location where temps rise above the record-breaking Feb values before 9am tomorrow won't be a 24hr record-breaker.

Although I've always personally disliked the 9am timings, the importance of comparing any current potential record-breakers with past ones using the same 24hr period can't be ignored otherwise it'll be apples vs oranges.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 16:32

Wynnum Nth max today 21.1C, currently 19.2C.
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 16:44

27mm so far today, fantastic! Lawn and garden is absolutley lapping it up, hopefully heaps more to come overnight.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 17:17

31.5 total now for us. Virtually lifesaving! Hope we get some follow up in a week or so to keep it going smile
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 17:24

15mm since 9am, this is turning into a nice little rain event after all.
With BOM forcasting 95% chance of any rain tomorrow & estimation 10 to 25mm could well bring event total over 50mm.
Fantastic.
Posted by: signalman

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 18:06

Like Elf, Lani and Gus - yes - small totals but nevertheless significant and worth celebrating against the background of desperate conditions here and in many other areas. Have just notched up 29mm for the 2 days of Feb here in North Warwick. The official total is currently at 12.6mm at the BOM site at The Hermitage, a few clicks east of Warwick. My 29mm is incidentally the highest 2 day total here for the past 10-11 months. Of course holding off for a bit more overnight but thankful for what has been received already if that is all we get. Cheers.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 18:25

I even turned the car heater on lol. It was after I went out in the rain and got a little wet.

I'm declaring the start of Autumn and refuse to admit the possibility it might turn hot again once this cool/wet air mass pushes through.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 18:32

LOL, its the best rain so far this year.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 18:52

Yes signalman, about the same here, almost 30mm since yesterday. I just wonder why the official gauge shows about only half as much as this was a general rain event. Not the first time either. Maybe they are having issues with their gauge or reporting? Indeed, the best one day total since March 31, 2017. Another 10mm tonight and tomorrow would be great. Only around 17 for a high today also. The temperatures for the next week have also been downgraded. Even a week from now, temps remain below 30 with lows slightly below average. I am so glad we are not going to have a repeat of February 2017! At least that's the way it looks right now....
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 18:54

I reckon its more like the start of January... keep seeing that low near NZ id prefer it not being there around that period as it puts us under a more SE'ly showery flow like we are in now aswell looks similar maybe a pattern change which is great that its cool but I'd like a more E to NE flow with a good trough through inland QLD. Anyway good that you guys are getting wet its nice to chill inside with thats for sure, will be watching the models closely over the next few weeks maybe a little more than usual. Heres hoping...:)
Posted by: redbucket

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 19:04

15.8mm here so far. More than doubled Jan’s total.

19C max.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 19:10

Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
Yes signalman, about the same here, almost 30mm since yesterday. I just wonder why the official gauge shows about only half as much as this was a general rain event. Not the first time either. Maybe they are having issues with their gauge or reporting? Indeed, the best one day total since March 31, 2017. Another 10mm tonight and tomorrow would be great. Only around 17 for a high today also. The temperatures for the next week have also been downgraded. Even a week from now, temps remain below 30 with lows slightly below average. I am so glad we are not going to have a repeat of February 2017! At least that's the way it looks right now....


The Warwick AWS (at time of writing this) has a total of 24.2mm since 5:30pm yesterday (the 9.8mm up to 9am today plus another 14.4mm since 9am today) which doesn't sound too far off your 30mm?
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 19:12

Originally Posted By: DDstorm
Anyone got a quick tech description of the atmosphere and what's the factors generating today's weather please. In particular why it has now increased from yesterdays forecast.
Thx


Maybe Ken can explain more in depth if he has time, but I would imagine the monsoon trough that dipped down this past week may have something to do with our increased moisture. Most of the south east wind changes we have endured the past few months gave little rain or cloud with the exception of some severe storms that were riding the change, however the following day was mostly clear skies. On this occasion, it seems this change will give us clouds and rain for a more days yet.

What makes me scratch my head, is there is a big upper high over western QLD, yet were getting rainfall. I think the surface low/trough in central QLD is more powerful than the upper high, so the upper high may not come into play in this weather situation.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 19:23

Ken had already mentioned it a couple of pages back and before the change came through.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 19:30

Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: DDstorm
Anyone got a quick tech description of the atmosphere and what's the factors generating today's weather please. In particular why it has now increased from yesterdays forecast.
Thx


What makes me scratch my head, is there is a big upper high over western QLD, yet were getting rainfall. I think the surface low/trough in central QLD is more powerful than the upper high, so the upper high may not come into play in this weather situation.


The upper high has been temporary replaced by an upper trough lying from SA through to the east coast which is causing all the cloud, it moves north in the next few days and is again replaced by a stupid ridge coming in behind.





Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 19:37

Yea Mega, im very interested in that change and after that.. ridges are great? If there's a mid/upper trough in a good position?
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 21:12

Thx for the info guy's
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 21:56

The weather frustrates me so much to try and learn and understand whats happening in the atmosphere etc. It's good hearing everyones observations and thoughts on whats happening.
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 22:01

If it holds until 9am tomorrow, Applethorpe's max of 15.0 will be an equal February record for Queensland. The existing record is in the somewhat unlikely location of Camooweal, as part of a rather extraordinary event in February 1949.

Brisbane Airport is looking at its coolest February maximum since 1989. (There was no Brisbane city site in 1989, so can't really compare).
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/02/2018 22:48

Saw the Queen's Baton Relay today up in Kempsey (60 days until GC2018). Good weather for it, with overcast and mild conditions.

Maybe a couple of isolated, brief thunderstorms about tomorrow along the NENSW coast in the showery onshore flow.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 08:32

Wynnum Nth rain since 0900 - 5.6mm, and 16.6mm for the event. Temp anomaly ( max and min ) last 24 hours - minus 6.35C.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 08:50

Light rain falling out here ,Was a cool night.Gotta wait till 9am to read gauge as spider has made a home in the automatic rain gauge again. Happens each time there is a dry spell Might have to use surface spray,lol.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 09:07

22mm in the trusty old nylex 24hrs, lots of dead grass aound the green tinges.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 09:34

24 mls of rain since 9am yesterday down here with a lot more expected today. It's nice cool and showery but personally after a couple of days of it this sou easterly pattern bores the crap out of me. Hope we get a couple more good storms before we're done for the season, been pretty slack overall.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 10:47

Hi all ,19 mm overnight and looks like some more to come should bring the grass back to life.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 11:07

I went up to Toowomba yesterday and at midday, it was 14.7C with feels-like temp of 9.9C... fog, rain and windy most of the day being literally up inside the clouds.
My place was 19.8C at noon.

Sunshine Coast and some parts of the coastal fringe & islands could do reasonably well today compared to the rest of our region, with the upmotion ahead of the upper trough clearing the former area later and the onshore showers affecting the latter.

After max temps rebound a bit closer to more typical values next week, NAEFS and the EC ensemble have been suggesting for awhile that they could climb a bit further into hotter than normal territory from around next weekend into the following week.

4-week EC ensemble and CFSV2 have also been suggesting the possibility of some anomalously lower pressures developing near the lower east of Australia later this month accompanied by some enhanced rainfall... but considering we could be near the northern edge of that, it looks like another one of those "could go either way" scenarios.

1st graphic below is the Extreme Forecast Index for today from the EC ensemble where -1 is significantly cooler than what's typical for this time of year and +1 is significantly hotter.

2nd graphic shows the mainly modest rainfall amounts in the 24hrs to 9am today.

The remaining images are ones I took along a street lined with maples and sweetgums aka liquidambars in Toowoomba yesterday:












Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 11:19

Great pics Ken where did you say you were.. England? What a contrast to only 3 days ago
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 13:02

Thanks Ken, I missed that, good to see the official gauge here is on target.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 15:21

We've had 19mm since midnight. I personally love cool rainy days like this so I'm not complaining.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 16:25

Did we break any temperature records?
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 16:30

50mm today (since midnight) at home and just 19 degs. Crazy for early February.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 16:38

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
50mm today (since midnight) at home and just 19 degs. Crazy for early February.

Brisbane didn't break its record for lowest Feb max temp because we reached 21.2C late this morning which is warmer than the combined record of 20.7C for the old and new CBD site.
I haven't checked other locations though.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 16:48

Not even close to breaking it in Bundaberg apparently.

15.7 degs for a top on the 4th Feb in 1969 .

Stanthorpe's low of 12 degs was nearly 9 degs above their coldest Feb night according to WZ's data.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 17:15

Honestly the rain has been great but the pattern is more typical of what you'd see in winter (although the highs are further south). It looks very dry for weeks after this lot of rain. Why we are still getting our rain from mid-latitude systems running from W to E is anyone's guess. It's no wonder the NE tropics are so dry.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 17:29

Nice pics Ken, some of them a bit spooky. At hm yday I maxed out at 23c , today still hasn’t reached 20. Light rain / drizzle nearly all day. Liking it a lot , I think it’s 125 yrs ago to the day bne was in all sorts of strife in the epic flood. 1000mm in a day , best not ever see that again.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 17:31

Wynnum Nth max today 20.8C, which was 0.3C lower than yesterday. 8.8mm since 0900.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 17:40

Another 15.5mm last night and today grin 47mm total for the event.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 18:08

Originally Posted By: Mega
Honestly the rain has been great but the pattern is more typical of what you'd see in winter (although the highs are further south). It looks very dry for weeks after this lot of rain. Why we are still getting our rain from mid-latitude systems running from W to E is anyone's guess. It's no wonder the NE tropics are so dry.


Yeah I was thinking Winter pattern myself.
Posted by: DNO

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 18:40

I think Kingaroy may have broken it's coolest max temp up to 9am this morning.
As far as I can see, it maxed at 17.7°. The previous record at the Airport was 20.5° & the record at the Prince St site set in 2000 was 18.2°. Prince St data goes back to 1957.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 19:13

It's incredible, bordering on the ridiculous even. Been driving round with the heater on in the car. February in the subtropics!
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 20:14

Haven't done well with the onshore showers here so far compared to other coastal places. Only 0.6mm in the 24hrs to 9am and 5.2mm since 9am.
There have been isolated brief thunderstorms about the northern MNC this afternoon/evening. Heard distant thunder mid-afternoon from a cell west of here.
Photos of showers about during late this afternoon -


Ken, those Toowoomba photos remind me of driving in the Dorrigo area on rainy days.

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Did we break any temperature records?
Applethorpe didn't get any warmer than 15.0ºC before the 9am reset this morning (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW4140.latest.shtml), so therefore yesterday it recorded Queensland's equal coldest February maximum temp on record.
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
If it holds until 9am tomorrow, Applethorpe's max of 15.0 will be an equal February record for Queensland. The existing record is in the somewhat unlikely location of Camooweal, as part of a rather extraordinary event in February 1949.
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 20:18

Originally Posted By: DNO
I think Kingaroy may have broken it's coolest max temp up to 9am this morning.
As far as I can see, it maxed at 17.7°. The previous record at the Airport was 20.5° & the record at the Prince St site set in 2000 was 18.2°. Prince St data goes back to 1957.

Yeah DNO and broken again today with the same max temp. Bloody freezing, woolen socks and jackets in high demand today! For the record here are the max temps for the first 3 days of this month compared to last Feb:
Kingaroy Feb 2017 1st 35.6C 2nd 37.6C 3rd 35.4C
Kingaroy Feb 2018 1st 22.4C 2nd 17.7C 3rd 17.7C

Rain has just about cleared here with 19.6mm today, 50.0mm for the last two days and 87.5mm from this event (including the January 31st storm). Fantastic stuff but as others have mentioned follow up rain over the next few weeks is what we really need. Fingers crossed!

Ps. Awesome pics Ken and seabreeze smile
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 21:52

Nice photos Seabreeze, certainly some beefy low clouds along the coast today. How good was tonight's sunset!!!!
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 23:07

Originally Posted By: Footsoldier
Great photos Ken. I am curious about something. At this time of year I happen to notice more of those billowing, puffy cumulo-nimbus clouds (as opposed to November for example when the storm structures seem to be a little more "linear" if that makes sense. Is there something to that?

Here are some examples of shots I have taken all at this time of year (in different years) to illustrate my point:-

https://photos.app.goo.gl/AMKA0O3tXRkexSjj1

https://photos.app.goo.gl/gURIm0JLXrMlYjbB3



Thanks for that. Sorry, I was meaning to get back to you about your question. In November, vertical wind shear (how much the wind speeds and directions change with height) is often still somewhat strong so thunderstorms tend to be more organised (also in appearance), lean over with height and develop anvil tops earlier (also helped by the lower tropopause height) which then stream out ahead of them.

But by around this time of year, shear has often weakened so you have a greater tendency for cumulonimbus clouds to billow upwards in a more "random" disorganised vertical manner rather than having that windblown leaning look that's common earlier in the season.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/02/2018 23:47

Thanks for the compliments again guys. And yeah Seabreeze, that's one of the reasons I like it on days like this weekend smile

Toowoomba came through with the goods again today too. At midday, it was 14.3C with a feels-like temp of 10.8C

Meanwhile, my place maxed out at 19.8C so far today.

Here's a photo I took today of the wet lush leaves of my birch tree. I'll miss this weekend's coolness after it starts to warm up from Monday and especially from next weekend into the following week with the further increase in heat.


Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/02/2018 09:06

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 9.8mm. Event total 26.4mm.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/02/2018 10:08

7mm 24hr total, making event total 42mm.
Lovely tank top up, grass turning green again but some large dead patches.
Nice pics Ken, thanks for posting.
Any guesses for our next drink?
Posted by: gberg

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/02/2018 10:30

Had some heavy showers overnight which topped the total up to 53mm until 9am which gave us a grand total of 121mm since Wednesday.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/02/2018 11:27

92mm here out of the event and it looks like more is on the way shortly.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/02/2018 14:37

52.4mm in the 24hrs to 9am here, with most of that falling from heavy to very heavy onshore showers overnight. The showers eased off after sunrise. Some thunder was heard during the late evening yesterday too from storm activity between 10-25kms away.
A few passing showers have brought 4.0mm since 9am.
Posted by: pabloako

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/02/2018 14:45

All up 55.4mm for me here, from 31st Jan to yesterday.
30mm of that fell on 31st Jan and then just persistent light rain for the subsequent days.
Yesterday maxed out at 18.4°C, so I had the fire on last night to warm the house up a bit. Like an English summer day!
Posted by: T.rex

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/02/2018 16:05

Mount Lofty's (Toowoomba) total for the first 3 days of Feb is 35.7mm
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/02/2018 21:55

Mad Elf: Some of the longer range guidance is still suggesting the possibility of enhanced rainfall in the lower east of Australia later this month associated with lowering pressures... but since it indicates we're near the edge of that area, not sure how we'll go here.

Heat still looks like ramping up on the weekend to hotter than normal territory again... then increasing instability and maybe some thunderstorm potential as well from later on the weekend or next week. Still early days though.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/02/2018 23:19

Thanks Ken, fingers crossed some rain works itself out for us.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/02/2018 06:50

Holy crap, 40C forecast next Sunday.
Wonder if it will beat this summers max of 42C.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/02/2018 09:04

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 1.2mm.
Posted by: redbucket

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/02/2018 10:15

We totalled 23.6mm so far for February. Nowhere near enough to fill the tank, or make a real dent in the dryness.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/02/2018 11:55

Yep, Redbucket; well-known whinger Notsohopefull Pete here. If only all you down there and up here and south to Warwick could have received another 5-10 mls before it cleared I think it would have been so much more beneficial.That's one thing about Toowoomba that amazed us(and Ken's pictures captured so well) is when the rains came in October and the last event. That ground level cloud with howling easterlies is incredible. Also according to my cheap rain gauge got 52ml here in Perth St. Seems a lot more than most other places.
Cheers
Posted by: redbucket

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/02/2018 12:49

Haha, yeah I was up the hill at our field office late last week (generally am up there a couple of times a week). Friday was incredible.
Posted by: Whisper

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/02/2018 13:03

55mm for Gympie so far for February
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/02/2018 17:49

Typical after all that dry weather, it turned cold and wet the day after I brought some new poddy calves home :-) Got some very needed rain here, and in only a few hours the change has perfect blue skies over us again.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/02/2018 18:05

Possible severe storms next Monday and Tuesday according to models, still a fair way out though
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/02/2018 18:10

Strange how its rainy and overcast on the Gold Coast but clear skies on the sunny coast?
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/02/2018 19:10

Exciting weather ahead. GFS going for 46 in the Brisbane Valley. Can't imagine that will come off but seems certain to approach the 40s anyway. Severe storms possible Monday through to Wednesday in SEQ.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/02/2018 20:12

Noooo please, N.F
Last time it was 46C the bitumen was melting down the road. Sounded like driving on water.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/02/2018 20:54

Can't wait bring it on.. Something half interesting even. Love it when I see that word severe!
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/02/2018 20:58

Given its gonabe 40C, thats serious heat/fuel in right conditions. Hmm. Not sure I like to be where its gona to go bang.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/02/2018 22:28

If we're getting winter weather patterns now, what is winter going to be like when it comes?
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/02/2018 22:44

Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
If we're getting winter weather patterns now, what is winter going to be like when it comes?


Good news is that we aren't getting winter weather patterns now or in the near future.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/02/2018 23:53

meh. It'll be hot, maybe a few storms, nothing we haven't all seen during spring before.

Would prefer a follow up rain event for everyone but that's looking unlikely.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/02/2018 09:03

Our highest here is still 43.6° in 2014, wonder if we'll break that this year.

We had a good 18mm from last week's showers, quite happy with how it turned out, had a wonderful drizzly day on Saturday.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/02/2018 10:02

Last night runs on the models were showing good potential, this mornings runs show the atmosphere being way too dry and way too capped. Probably the best it could do on the current run is there could be a small amount of moisture in the mid levels to start development above the cap with dry gusty storms.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/02/2018 13:02

You're not wrong Squeako, yuck. Dry air being pushed all the way up through the tropics. I do believe moisture will be a big problem next week.



Following that, GFS shows quickly flips us into a more typical wet pattern as a big cutoff low forms over SA/VIC - but I'll believe it when I see it.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/02/2018 13:16

edit time expired...but it also sets up a long easterly ridge in the Coral Sea for the first time since November (without the flow being hijacked by any stupid lows or troughs). This is not to be confused with the much drier nature of the Tasman Sea ridge that's plagued us for what seems like forever. But again it's a case of believe when see.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/02/2018 13:45

Thanks for your thoughts on upcoming setup Mega and Squeako. That's why I am always on these threads - gold!
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/02/2018 14:16

looks like the storm potential has been wiped out completely.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/02/2018 16:54

The dryline boundary hopefully is just far enough inland but I guess it will depend on how far the seabreeze can reach wouldn't write it off yet but yea when there's NW winds involved I imagine there will be some coastal capping still think there will be chopping and changing.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/02/2018 17:54

Well hasn't the forecast changed dramatically. Looks like a significant heatwave now for most of next week (high 30s across SEQ into low 40s) and almost on chance of storms before a dry southerly change pushes through later in the week. As others have said, maybe a cut-off low the following weekend but who can trust ext GFS.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/02/2018 19:27

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Well hasn't the forecast changed dramatically. Looks like a significant heatwave now for most of next week (high 30s across SEQ into low 40s) and almost on chance of storms before a dry southerly change pushes through later in the week. As others have said, maybe a cut-off low the following weekend but who can trust ext GFS.

....which is why the consistently reliable NAEFS has been going for a big area of hotter than normal conditions over much of eastern Australia next week (normally, any strong cool change which leads to prolonged cool conditions after it will make a far bigger dent in those hot anomalies).

The EC ensemble, CFSV2 and POAMA are also still going for the possibility of wet anomalies for eastern NSW later this month but we in SE QLD/NE NSW are still appearing to be near the edge of that area so it still does look it could go either way and inconclusive so far.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/02/2018 19:58

Ken, are NAEFS available to public?
Posted by: KevD

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/02/2018 20:07

Originally Posted By: Flowin
Ken, are NAEFS available to public?

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html smile
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/02/2018 20:30

Thanks KevD
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/02/2018 09:50

Has anyone noticed that the bom brisbane forcast issued at 5am everyday is just a cut and paste of the previous 420pm forcast
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/02/2018 09:53

tsunami: That's because it's standard for only the day shift to update all 7 days in the forecast.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/02/2018 09:57

Thanks Ken
Knew there would be a logical answer. Thought it maybe because of how much the government has cut back funding for BOM
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/02/2018 11:33

I've got no idea why funding gets cut to the BOM when forecasting weather is very important and can have a impact on peoples livelihood.

Is it true weather forecasting in the United States / Canada is more accurate than in Australia? If so why?
Obviously the National Weather Service does not have a funding problem?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/02/2018 12:04

Originally Posted By: gleno71
I've got no idea why funding gets cut to the BOM when forecasting weather is very important and can have a impact on peoples livelihood.

Is it true weather forecasting in the United States / Canada is more accurate than in Australia? If so why?
Obviously the National Weather Service does not have a funding problem?


Density of observations could have a significant impact I'd think. US population could achieve better observation coverage for the same funding/person. Canada would be closer to Australia I'd think, and the Arctic is poorly observed and quite relevant in Canada.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/02/2018 14:13

gleno: I don't know re the official forecasts but I do know the model forecasts for the northern hemisphere have always been a bit more accurate (on average) than for the southern hemisphere due to the larger amount of available conventional obs data fed into the models.
We get the raw end of the deal with just about everything weatherwise here in Australia lol
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/02/2018 14:18

The possibility of enhanced rainfall later this month (mid to late Feb) for some sections of eastern Australia still being suggested by some of the longer range ensembles (which have a lowering of pressures in the region).

Will be interesting to see if our area can get anything or not.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/02/2018 18:34

This weekend atleast there will be something to watch locally. Not much in the way of precip so I'm not hopeful for anything to good...but looking at some forecast soundings only look like modest instability values but windshear profiles are somewhat interesting and with the heat forecast maybe could be a slight possibility for storms by saturday onwards. Just at a glance 5-10mm for most of our region perhaps better totals maybe north of Gympie looks to be from a thunderstorm but maybe will have a better look closer to the date.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/02/2018 19:14

Appreciate ya positive input Steve be good to see some towers building again here's hoping
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/02/2018 20:18

GFS is going for substantially hotter conditions than EC and BOM (at least 5+ or more degrees). For example, Brisbane hits 41 next Wednesday and Ipswich 43, but BOM just has 35 and 37. The key will be the seabreeze, how far the NW'lies push and if any southerly changes try and push up the coast. Definitely going to be hot but could be extremely hot if this comes off.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/02/2018 20:50

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
gleno: I don't know re the official forecasts but I do know the model forecasts for the northern hemisphere have always been a bit more accurate (on average) than for the southern hemisphere due to the larger amount of available conventional obs data fed into the models.
We get the raw end of the deal with just about everything weatherwise here in Australia lol

Ken , regarding this, another one of my dumbass theories is that it may be easier to forecast conditions over continental landmasses , than it is over maritime regions , due to possibly a number of factors , coupled with the lower necessity to forecast over maritime areas. Happy to have that torn to shreds , but it’s just another of my ponderings.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/02/2018 21:05

Originally Posted By: BIG T
Ken , regarding this, another one of my dumbass theories is that it may be easier to forecast conditions over continental landmasses , than it is over maritime regions , due to possibly a number of factors , coupled with the lower necessity to forecast over maritime areas. Happy to have that torn to shreds , but it’s just another of my ponderings.

The main factor is definitely the better performance of models over the northern hemisphere than the southern hemisphere - it really stands out in objective skill stats pretty much every month, every year, for decades, very consistently. It's a long-known principle.

Also, the steady march of frontal systems that sweep across midlatitude areas such as the continents that dominate the northern hemisphere, often tends to be a bit more predictable in timing and standard tracks in the short term compared to a region like Australia, much of which lies under the subtropical high pressure belt (which is why so much of the country is dry) and where surface and upper lows and troughs wander around a lot with varying intensities.
Even the Coral Sea basin has pretty high historical forecast track errors for TC's compared to a number of other ocean basins which doesn't help the overall skill of MSLP scores in the models in the Australian region when TC's occur.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/02/2018 23:23

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: gleno71
I've got no idea why funding gets cut to the BOM when forecasting weather is very important and can have a impact on peoples livelihood.

Is it true weather forecasting in the United States / Canada is more accurate than in Australia? If so why?
Obviously the National Weather Service does not have a funding problem?


Density of observations could have a significant impact I'd think. US population could achieve better observation coverage for the same funding/person. Canada would be closer to Australia I'd think, and the Arctic is poorly observed and quite relevant in Canada.


Thanks for the reply Mike
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/02/2018 23:25

Thanks Ken for the reply


Big T - You could be right with the landmasses in the NH might produce better accuracy on forecasts
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/02/2018 08:07

Empty ocean might mean no features for a weather pattern to focus on compared to continents with mountain ranges etc. Or maybe less features when considering currents and SST variations.
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/02/2018 09:01

All of next week looks bloody hot west of the divide. Basically 7 days straight of 35+ temps with a couple of days touching 40. And little to no rain in sight frown
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/02/2018 09:03

Originally Posted By: Adam Ant
All of next week looks bloody hot west of the divide. Basically 7 days straight of 35+ temps with a couple of days touching 40. And little to no rain in sight frown


Which is why it'd be nice to think the scenario below has at least something in it for us.
At least it looks like temps might ease back from around the end of next week

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The possibility of enhanced rainfall later this month (mid to late Feb) for some sections of eastern Australia still being suggested by some of the longer range ensembles (which have a lowering of pressures in the region).

Will be interesting to see if our area can get anything or not.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/02/2018 09:08

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Empty ocean might mean no features for a weather pattern to focus on compared to continents with mountain ranges etc. Or maybe less features when considering currents and SST variations.

Oceans often tend to be easier to forecast for than continental landmasses (especially ones with big mountain ranges) and coasts because the latter features often disrupt the normal flow and march of midlatitude and subtropical systems as well as introducing complex orographic effects on precip, winds, etc.

To illustrate my earlier point about the consistent difference in model skill (which form a big part of manual forecasts) between the northern and southern hemisphere, here's a clip I made where I flick between NH and SH model skill graphs (showing how skill changes with forecast lead time out to 10 days) over the last 30 days - you can easily see how the values for each model are lower for the SH largely due to the difference in observation network density.
There's also always a bigger spread in model skill for the SH due to the greater uncertainty.
In the titles at the top of each graph, NHX = northern hemisphere and SHX = southern hemisphere.



Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/02/2018 09:23

its fascinating stuff. I reckon there may still be plenty we dont know about the range of effects the oceans have. Amazing how far that knowledge has come over the past 30 years.
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/02/2018 11:33

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Adam Ant
All of next week looks bloody hot west of the divide. Basically 7 days straight of 35+ temps with a couple of days touching 40. And little to no rain in sight frown


Which is why it'd be nice to think the scenario below has at least something in it for us.
At least it looks like temps might ease back from around the end of next week

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The possibility of enhanced rainfall later this month (mid to late Feb) for some sections of eastern Australia still being suggested by some of the longer range ensembles (which have a lowering of pressures in the region).

Will be interesting to see if our area can get anything or not.


Fingers crossed Ken
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/02/2018 08:03

Just looked at the Brisbane forecast for the next week and as expected, heatwave type conditions. Oddly the BOM have gone for a chance of showers every day except for Sat and Sunday where we wouldn't expect anything to happen. From past experience during a prolonged Brisbane heatwave, we just don't get showers so again the BOM are on drugs again, like a couple of weeks ago where storms were forecast every day and none appeared. I hope again I am wrong but sounds a little crazy to me.
Again I would forecast this period as Fine and Hot 23 - 34 virtually every day til next Thursday. I have never seen showers in 'Brisbane' during a heatwave period, except at the end of the heatwave.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/02/2018 08:08

Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
like a couple of weeks ago where storms were forecast every day and none appeared

We actually did have storms in SEQ on two of those days, one of which I posted photos on here. Didn’t hit the CBD though.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/02/2018 08:46

The expected heatwave is close to the same dates and duration as this time last year.
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/02/2018 09:25

Originally Posted By: retired weather man
The expected heatwave is close to the same dates and duration as this time last year.

Yep, it is exactly the same for me. On 11 & 12 Feb last year I had a maximum of 41C and 44C, respectively.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/02/2018 09:16

Interesting stats for the first 10 days of Feb locally, really showing the influence of the persistent ridge and drier air...

Temp anomaly to date minus 3.4C,
Grass min anomaly minus 2.5C,
Dew Point anomaly minus 3.0C,
MSLP anomaly plus 2.3Hpa.

The next few days should address the temp anomaly.
Posted by: Coxy

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/02/2018 07:42

Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Just looked at the Brisbane forecast for the next week and as expected, heatwave type conditions. Oddly the BOM have gone for a chance of showers every day except for Sat and Sunday where we wouldn't expect anything to happen. From past experience during a prolonged Brisbane heatwave, we just don't get showers so again the BOM are on drugs again, like a couple of weeks ago where storms were forecast every day and none appeared. I hope again I am wrong but sounds a little crazy to me.
Again I would forecast this period as Fine and Hot 23 - 34 virtually every day til next Thursday. I have never seen showers in 'Brisbane' during a heatwave period, except at the end of the heatwave.


;-)
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/02/2018 13:45

Coxy, Absolutely I have been wrong on this one for the first 2 days of the heatwave. Really totally unexpected results so far. So for the record I am on the drugs, not the BOM on this one smile
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/02/2018 22:17

A week away IF EC and GFS hold with their forecast there is a upper low to form over SE inland QLD middle of next week with a moist onshore flow. Looks like a good heavy showery with possible thunder setup good for coastal regions and nearby hinterland who has missed out on the storm action this week.

Edit: If I remember correctly something similar happened last year after a long period heat event in February there were quite a number of upper troughs/upper lows that produced above average falls in March in SE QLD and NE NSW that finished with a you know what.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/02/2018 21:30

Pray that EC is right because tonight's GFS looks garbage.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/02/2018 22:12

Fingers cross for EC. It has a nice little coastal trough enhancing rainfall. I feel that the faster that TC Gita can bugger off the better off we'll be with a more moist easterly flow.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/02/2018 22:14

It’s probably part of that wet signal that was appearing in some of the multi week ensembles for a section of eastern Australia for a couple of weeks now for later this month/early next month.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/02/2018 08:43

Also looking like it might get a bit windy along our coast by Tue/Wed as a surge of SE'lies pushes up with some showers.
At least it'll get a bit cooler.
Might check out the powerful surf along the coast today or tomorrow if I get time.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/02/2018 08:49

I did not realize there have been recent comments on this thread. Here are My amateurish thoughts. Looking at WATL and that dry spot over inland SE QLD(west of the Brisbane River and through most of the Eastern Downs just to avoid confusion). For us it looks very grim. It is amazing that a cyclone has traveled halfway across the Pacific to perfectly position itself to keep out what looks like another big event for large parts of QLD. Everyone else enjoy the rain.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/02/2018 10:13

Gita is heading towards New Zealand now.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/02/2018 12:57

Yes Pete, we just can't win out here. This is not our year. The southern Darling Downs right now is looking really brown. Some areas like Allora and Maryvale and surrounding areas doing much better than most. I'm just looking forward to winter at this point. Sitting at 37mm for the month so far. So glad we had that steady cool rain the first of the month. For the second straight year we have been quite humid for this far inland. I am only going by how it felt compared to years past and what locals are saying also.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/02/2018 13:14

We still have time. Who knows, maybe a wet Autumn?
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/02/2018 13:42

Here at Wynnum Nth in a supposedly wettish area, we are only 83.8mm for the year so far.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/02/2018 15:49

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Also looking like it might get a bit windy along our coast by Tue/Wed as a surge of SE'lies pushes up with some showers.
At least it'll get a bit cooler.
Might check out the powerful surf along the coast today or tomorrow if I get time.


I'm surprised were not getting showers now, looking at the charts were getting SE winds?
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/02/2018 16:25

The difference when we get into the middle part of next week there is a quite a large upper low situated over QLD and that is going to make the onshore flow deeper over SE QLD and going to increase shower activity along the coast and hinterland areas. There could a weak coastal trough near Fraser Island and there could potentially be some good falls around the Sunshine Coast/Wide Bay region.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/02/2018 18:02

Yes RWM, we have a total of 75mm for the year right now. GFS now shows interest for good falls and possible storms for the southern Downs and Granite Belt area from Friday through the weekend. Of course other areas also, so let us hope we make up in our rainfall deficit. Early days but I am a bit excited because at least I get to look at a bit of colour over my area, lol.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/02/2018 08:14

Very colourful WATL map for later in the week alright, definitely need plenty catchup rain here as well. Extended GFS shows another depression in east C.S. Wonder if that one will follow the others or come a bit closer to us this time.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/02/2018 08:17

One can only hope but extended GFS proved its uselessness once again recently with that so-called SE QLD/NE NSW twin cyclone impact re TC Gita that it was going for for ages.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/02/2018 08:27

If it doesnt happen soon, it wont happen at all & we'll be left with a bit of dribble here and there until next season. We still way better off than Cape Town. Very nasty.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/02/2018 09:09

If Cape Town runs out of water it will be a wake up call for not only Australia but for the world because if it can happen there it can happen in other places too. It nearly happened in Brisbane in 2007.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/02/2018 09:11

I read an article in Sydney's SM Herald recently about the Hunter Valley, but also in the NSW/ACT thread how bad parts of NSW are drought-wise. To me, the actual Bureau forecasts for our area seem more optimistic the WATL.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/02/2018 11:31

Looking like a set up for some storms tomorrow for my area .See what happens .BSCH charts look like a fair day for me .
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/02/2018 16:46

Storms looked promising a bit early with good CG's to our west. Seems to be falling alert as it approaches us. Not a drop yet...
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/02/2018 18:37

Bit of banging going on again. Might get a shower out of it.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/02/2018 20:21

If anyone isn't aware yet (like me until now), there's a new thread for the upcoming precip here: http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1453371

I don't know if anyone else thinks it's a good idea but perhaps we could mention in here when we start a new thread?
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/02/2018 20:34

Yeah, I can't follow it, but good call Ken. The other thread is from the 22nd but they're checking the radar for what's coming now???
Forecast for tonight is clear but the radar shows otherwise and tomorrow now down for 5-20. Who's got the tech stuff on this incoming precip please.
DD
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/02/2018 20:41

Livio has nothing, he said models are changing every run. Hope we get half the forecast rain.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/02/2018 21:21

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
If anyone isn't aware yet (like me until now), there's a new thread for the upcoming precip here: http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1453371

I don't know if anyone else thinks it's a good idea but perhaps we could mention in here when we start a new thread?


I apologise Ken. Next time I will let everyone know on this thread.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/02/2018 21:30

All good squeako, just thought I'd raise the suggestion 'tis all.

I'm a bit unsure about Tuesday due to model uncertainty (e.g. EC supports this scenario but ACCESS-C doesn't) but if the former ends up being right, we could see some showers or even some patchy rain for coastal SE QLD/NE NSW from the early morning hours on Tuesday (as the deepening upper trough drifts north and moisture increases from the freshening SE'lies... SE'ly steering for low level showers coming off slightly unstable offshore environment as well).
Then a possible easing before picking up again Tue night.

Perhaps even some localised thunder. Quite tricky this one though.

Still looking cooler and a bit breezier on Tuesday... and even cooler and breezier by Wed.

Central parts of QLD still looking ripe for a big outbreak of severe thunderstorms with strong shear, instability and moisture with some large hail and tornadic supercell ingredients present. Would not be surprised if a few storms became exceptionally severe.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/02/2018 22:06

Thanks Ken for your thoughts. I kinda made a typo with the start date should be 20th not the 22nd.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/02/2018 10:14

It's all good Squeako smile

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
If it doesnt happen soon, it wont happen at all & we'll be left with a bit of dribble here and there until next season. We still way better off than Cape Town. Very nasty.


I think it's always good to avoid confining hopes to just one part of the year.
Even though we traditionally have a distinct peak in rainfall around this time of year, we can still sometimes get heavy rain events at other times of year so you can never be completely sure what's around the corner.

A couple of the examples that still stand out more than others in my mind was the May 2015 ECL and August 2007 ECL... major flooding with both of them, just to name a few.
Posted by: KevD

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/02/2018 10:36

Any takers? grin



#droughtbreaker #lalaland #384 #nomoreanomalies
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/02/2018 13:05

You forgot the poorer reliability of the 18z run lol
Posted by: KevD

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/02/2018 13:33

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
You forgot the poorer reliability of the 18z run lol

Not likely to see it on the 00z, got to grab these fantasies while you can grin
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/02/2018 16:46

00z has moved the low west to eastern WA. I'm guessing subsequent runs will continue the westward trend until it circles the globe and gets to New Zealand.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/02/2018 17:50

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
You forgot the poorer reliability of the 18z run lol

Not to mention the poor reliability of GFS in general at that kind of range lol
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/02/2018 21:55

CFS is going for a fairly wet March in SEQ.
Posted by: Whisper

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/02/2018 10:19

Interesting read: Use an Onion to predict the weather!

www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/weather/hally-predicts-weather-and-rainfall-using-only-an-onion-and-salt/news-story/240e24eb4fbc552aee0c1ca83bf6d2e8#itm=newscomau%7Chome%7Cv2-homepage-topstories%7C5%7Cheadline%7Chomepage%7Chomepage&itmt=1519254822963
Posted by: DarrylS

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/02/2018 18:13

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The EC ensemble, CFSV2 and POAMA are also still going for the possibility of wet anomalies for eastern NSW later this month but we in SE QLD/NE NSW are still appearing to be near the edge of that area so it still does look it could go either way and inconclusive so far.


How closely has this event followed those predictions from early in the month, Ken?

You mentioned that we in Brisbane could be on the edge of that system - did it shift significantly further north?
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/02/2018 20:59

Feb has turned out to be a pretty eventful month with severe storms, this rain event and lots of heat. Reminds me a little of last October.

The next few weeks could be interesting. This event will have completely saturated all the catchments across SEQ by Tuesday. GFS playing with another coastal trough toward the end of its run with heavy falls in NE NSW pushing up into SEQ before weakening (CFS shows a good rain signal in eastern Aus at this time too). And then there's the big CFS wet signal along eastern Qld in 3 weeks time (maybe a big stalling trough or a coast-hugging cyclone?). It may be that this week's event is the first of a few and if so there could be a greater flood threat on the horizon.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 24/02/2018 09:20

If this comes off I'll bet the Comm Games organizers will be chewing their nails.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/02/2018 08:30

High 20s today and tomorrow with low 30s within 2 days of a strong southerly change. Can definitely tell that the waters are warm off the east coast.

More storm and rain potential returning this weekend.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/02/2018 18:07

BOM forecast increased rainfall end of week/weekend. I can feel a wet spell coming on. Good dam inflows as well, ground saturated, good flood recipe.
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/02/2018 07:28

a bit off topic, but isn't that a low pressure system forming over townsville at the moment ?
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/02/2018 08:13

All good yes it is, just saw the notes there is an upper low in the area, heading west unfortunately
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/02/2018 14:45

Originally Posted By: DarrylS
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The EC ensemble, CFSV2 and POAMA are also still going for the possibility of wet anomalies for eastern NSW later this month but we in SE QLD/NE NSW are still appearing to be near the edge of that area so it still does look it could go either way and inconclusive so far.


How closely has this event followed those predictions from early in the month, Ken?

You mentioned that we in Brisbane could be on the edge of that system - did it shift significantly further north?


The recent rainfall wasn't too far off the suggestions from the ensembles (at least the EC ensemble... I haven't gone back to verify the others) in the general scheme of things.

Their runs a few days before I originally posted about it initially had the higher probabilities in eastern NSW and SE QLD with close to borderline probabilities further north in QLD, but the subsequent run of the EC ensemble ramped up the probs in areas further north as well.

As an example, the 1st image was the EC ensemble's run made over 3 weeks ago back on the 5th of Feb (for the percentages of its scenarios going for higher than normal rainfall reaching the wettest 33% of the model's climatology for between the 19th and 25th of Feb). The 2nd image is the observed rainfall anomalies averaged across the period 20th to 26th Feb. Slightly different time windows but you can see the similarities in the overall pattern there:




Posted by: DarrylS

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/02/2018 14:53

Thanks very much, Ken. It's interesting to see that EC did reasonably well 3 weeks out from the event. I know that doesn't happen all the time, but I think it's worth noting those times when it does.

Thanks again.
Posted by: Sandbank

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/02/2018 16:21

A bit more than a low....that swirling piece of awesomeness in Townsville is giving them a drenching they sorely need. laugh
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/03/2018 09:25

Whats the chances of that wet weather doing a left turn drift & coming our way in a day or so? Anything stopping it? WATL has a bit of a wagging tail from it next week.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/03/2018 10:18

What will bring it out way? Upper Trough
What will not bring it our way? Upper High
What's going to happen? I don't know, most likely scenario is the one that we don't want to happen.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/03/2018 12:10

Cheers sqeako, BOM thinks it eventually moves over N.T. but keep mentioning cloud from an upper trough in the state forecast. Something to watch at least.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/03/2018 12:41

We usually flood after western Queensland floods, that massive cold snap in the northern hemisphere could send a lot of rain our way.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/03/2018 13:13

How would that work Chris? Sounds interesting. Cheers
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
We usually flood after western Queensland floods, that massive cold snap in the northern hemisphere could send a lot of rain our way.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/03/2018 14:26

The cold in the northern hemisphere can lead to a stronger cross-equatorial flow, 1893 was a good example of this. If an upper trough comes along at the right time it could catch the tropical low and send it south east towards us.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/03/2018 15:22

Ok Thanks. Might do a bit of research on cross equatorial flow.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/03/2018 15:40

Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
The cold in the northern hemisphere can lead to a stronger cross-equatorial flow, 1893 was a good example of this. If an upper trough comes along at the right time it could catch the tropical low and send it south east towards us.

If you’re referring to the current cold snap in Europe, it’s on the other side of the planet so it won’t have any significant effect.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/03/2018 19:42

Multimodel WATL has that system creeping south with precip to out part of the world.
Love to see it happen, could be an interesting week.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/03/2018 20:14

Nah doesnt look history making.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/03/2018 08:54

WATL this morning is slowly getting more optimistic but yes, not history making, ATM.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/03/2018 09:09

This upcoming event so far is looking good for Toowoomba southwards. Hope it happens otherwise I think I will take up a less stressful pastime, maybe lawn bowls.
Posted by: J D

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/03/2018 09:13

NshPete. Hope it's to wet for lawn bowls
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/03/2018 09:15

So do I JD.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/03/2018 09:24

Maybe Bocce? You can play that in pouring rain.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/03/2018 09:51

Yes Pete, here’s hoping. Last March we had 240mm. I would be happy with half that this March 2018.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/03/2018 09:52

I'll think about it Mad Elf.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/03/2018 13:34

Dont know about anywhere else but its a dark, gloomy, calm & sticky day here. Feels like something is coming.
Posted by: Foehn Correspondent

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/03/2018 16:42

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Dont know about anywhere else but its a dark, gloomy, calm & sticky day here. Feels like something is coming.


Terrible here just mowed the grass and the yard clothes looked like I had jumped in a pool. STW out for a storm on the southern Downs not heading this way unfortunately.
Posted by: justme

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/03/2018 18:10

101 mm In less than one hour.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/03/2018 19:25

Rain and thunder here in Toowoomba.
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/03/2018 19:29

Yeah but the best stuff is just to the west of us.Maybe Adam ant will get more.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/03/2018 19:36

Thunder heard from the NW a couple of hours ago. No rain to report here.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/03/2018 20:06

Hope we get the odd half day of fine weather ahead. I am planning to finish some painting👍
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/03/2018 21:23

Strange set up at the moment , feels like it will dump more rain , but I’m waiting to see what could bring it.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/03/2018 06:50

Things are looking great for another wet few days starting tomorrow. Fantastic for the farmers.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/03/2018 07:18

Not sure why that system is packing such a punch in NW QLD ? Too me it looks like a normal low that sits over that region anyway?
But great news none the less.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/03/2018 07:20

Originally Posted By: gleno71
Not sure why that system is packing such a punch in NW QLD ? Too me it looks like a normal low that sits over that region anyway?
But great news none the less.

The difference with this system is that it's a very vigorous tight low which also extends well up into the upper levels. The resultant upmotion with lots of tropical moisture feeding into it is causing heavier than normal falls.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/03/2018 08:48

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 0.6mm.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/03/2018 11:00

Looking more likely that we will get a good drop over next few days , which is good.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/03/2018 12:26

I've created a new thread for the upcoming rainfall here:

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...pos#Post1455523
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/03/2018 13:40

Kinda off topic but the current blizzard in the US is just a reminder to me of how our weather completely pales in comparison to the US, and most of the NH as a whole. Blizzards and 'bomb cyclones' in winter, guaranteed severe thunderstorm & tornado outbreaks in summer. Australia = drought, and the occasional flooding rains with mostly boring dry winters. It's all very 'samey', less extremes with less variance. If only there wasn't a huge body of water between Antarctica and Australia, things might be a little different.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/03/2018 13:50

Yep exactly Mega. Much of Australia lies under the subtropical high pressure belt so it's mainly just droughts, floods and heat (and ridges and upper troughs lol). Widespread cold/snow (and I'm not talking about temps dipping below 25C either) tends to be an exception for most of the country rather than the norm.

The sheer enormous variety of weather in many NH countries in awesome. Everything from ice storms/freezing rain, diamond dust, thundersnow, blizzards, snow rollers, etc through to big dramatic temperature swings, warm fronts, occluded fronts, tornadoes (in prone areas), amazing contrast between the different seasons which make for ever-changing landscapes and scenery.

I still do enjoy it and make the most of it when we do get dramatic weather here on the odd occasion though... but for 3/4 of the time, it tends to be the good old "Partly cloudy, slight chance of a shower or two" regime lol
Posted by: justme

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/03/2018 15:31

Yesterday was dramatic for me around here 102mm under 1 hour, all around us hardly a drop.
Posted by: PlumbBob

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/03/2018 19:14

Hi All,
I'd like to ask if anyone maybe able to shed some feedback on the weather or 'long-range rain forecast' would be like for the Central Coast NSW During the last week of April and 1st half of May - if possible ?

I know it won't be accurate, & I'd say at a pinch, they have had there summer seasonal rains recently, soo, are there any further 'wet events' on the cards for end April and most of May period down there ?

It is Not really important, tho any idea world be appreciated, :-)
I can only get the monthly outlook on Bom, which is at least another month before some initial coverage ?
Going on a long'ish campervan holiday
Thnx if can :-)
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/03/2018 17:33

Oh GFS why do you tease us like this!



There's actually some good model agreement about the formation of his low/TC in the Coral Sea, but beyond that it's very much up in the air (although GFS/CMC/Access-G all have it moving toward our region).
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/03/2018 17:35

I find the 00z runs of many models tend to be really dodgy in the long range (especially GFS) compared to the 12z runs and produce crazy scenarios.
But who knows whether this scenario will be an exception or not (I haven't even really checked that far ahead yet).
Posted by: SnowyTrainNorth

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/03/2018 21:50


GFS isn't the only one, apparently...
(Click image for bigger version)
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/03/2018 21:54

Yea a good example of this is page 23 Kevs post, compare that to the 7th presently. The further you go out in time the least confidence. Personally I like to stay under 90 odd hours lead time for more accuracy.
Posted by: SnowyTrainNorth

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/03/2018 22:11


If we needed more proof...
Although its worth keeping an eye on.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/03/2018 22:11

Oh god, so many things wrong with this article:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...ebook_Australia

1) Massive cyclone that is only forecast on some models and almost two weeks away.

2) People in NQ warned and the quote they give talks about a crossing in CQ.

3) Who is this East Coast weather facebook clown and why is he being quoted in the media?

4) Nothing quoted from BOM whatsoever.

5) Mr Taylor has also predicted that Australia could see one of the country's coldest winters on record.

'We've already seen what America's winter was like and Scotland just got hammered,' he said.


How does Northern Hemisphere winter have anything to do with Australian winter?

6) Weather forecasters Higgins Storm Chasing predicted the intense weather event.

I'm done.

EDIT: Some great comments though. I like this one:

It is all coming from a bloke with the worse haircut I have ever seen. He looks like he has just endured a massive cyclone.
Posted by: Stevo

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/03/2018 22:19

Just saw that article in the CS thread. Seriously how can you justify putting that up? Absolutely ridiculous. No cyclone within cooee of qld atm, and the modelling is all over the shop, yesterday was cq this morning port Douglas and now nz for a low/cyclone in 2 weeks time. Media need the facts right before publishing outlandish claims
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/03/2018 22:25

Here's another great one:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...ebook_Australia

Mr Taylor has explained that his forecast formula uses changes in sunspot activity, along with Global Forecast System modelling, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast.

What a load of rubbish. GFS and EC only go out to around two weeks. So he's basing all of this on sunspots. He may have a point about the sunspots but he should come out and say that is his only evidence, instead of supporting it with weather models that couldn't possibly be corroborating his claims at this time window.
Posted by: Stevo

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/03/2018 22:33

That's a good one too NF. It's really sad that media outlets post this stuff. Must be a slow news day.
Posted by: Foehn Correspondent

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/03/2018 23:23

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Here's another great one:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...ebook_Australia

Mr Taylor has explained that his forecast formula uses changes in sunspot activity, along with Global Forecast System modelling, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast.

What a load of rubbish. GFS and EC only go out to around two weeks. So he's basing all of this on sunspots. He may have a point about the sunspots but he should come out and say that is his only evidence, instead of supporting it with weather models that couldn't possibly be corroborating his claims at this time window.


Wasn't this the bloke that did the hilarious 'Tornado on the left' video from a couple of years ago? If you ever need to have a laugh.

https://www.facebook.com/BrisbaneCityWeather/videos/10154462667663891/

Don't adjust your screen oh and BTW tornado on the left.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/03/2018 00:01

Not sure who he is, but appears to be somewhat of a local hero up there:
Only person to correctly predict Townsvi...orth Queensland

"David Taylor owns Brisbane Weather and East Coast Weather, and on February 25 forecast 600mm would fall in Townsville on February 28...."

Hmm I like watching people like this, to see if they will fade away after the non-event they predict.
I'm not saying it will or won't happen, but his claims of being the only one to predict the recent event are a bit .... off.
So many supposed experts these days make people turn away from BOM with their claims. I daresay THEY are more responsible for the "we weren't prepared" disasters than BOM yet because they are the official bureau, BOM get blamed for everything.
I don't claim BOM are gods, but they do have a more sedate, measured approach to upcoming events than these people who the media are willing to listen to, all because it sounds better & sells papers.

I am very much over the "we know better" generation. They won't be around to be accountable in the aftermath of any event; because they will simply claim "I'm an amateur, they are the professionals".

It's fine to share your thoughts with others, just don't pretend to be something you are not by claiming success for predicting something many of us saw coming.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/03/2018 00:04

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
.....Mr Taylor has explained that his forecast formula uses changes in sunspot activity,....

Pfft; my mother had sunspots and she didn't have a clue it was raining till the clothes on the line got wet ...... wink
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/03/2018 09:42

Originally Posted By: Kazz63
Not sure who he is, but appears to be somewhat of a local hero up there:
Only person to correctly predict Townsvi...orth Queensland

"David Taylor owns Brisbane Weather and East Coast Weather, and on February 25 forecast 600mm would fall in Townsville on February 28...."

Hmm I like watching people like this, to see if they will fade away after the non-event they predict.
I'm not saying it will or won't happen, but his claims of being the only one to predict the recent event are a bit .... off.
So many supposed experts these days make people turn away from BOM with their claims. I daresay THEY are more responsible for the "we weren't prepared" disasters than BOM yet because they are the official bureau, BOM get blamed for everything.
I don't claim BOM are gods, but they do have a more sedate, measured approach to upcoming events than these people who the media are willing to listen to, all because it sounds better & sells papers.

I am very much over the "we know better" generation. They won't be around to be accountable in the aftermath of any event; because they will simply claim "I'm an amateur, they are the professionals".

It's fine to share your thoughts with others, just don't pretend to be something you are not by claiming success for predicting something many of us saw coming.



As I have said many times before, as much as I enjoy looking and learning about computer models that have been made publicly availiable over the years, certain people and weather pages have taken advantage of it. Sadly it has become somewhat of a ego thing on who gets it right first. And some of the silly media rate weather pages as "forecasters" now. How can you be a labelled a "forecaster" when these people didn't even go to uni to get a effing degree. Makes me so mad. People like Ken and others who work for the BOM done the hard yard's to get where they are today. The others jumped on the bandwagon thinking there the next best thing, yet there knowledge is very small compared to those who work for the Bureau
Posted by: Coxy

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/03/2018 10:11

If you throw enough darts at a map, eventually one of them is going to hit the right target. Most of these "amateurs" do it for the notoriety and the income stream.

There are good "amateurs" of course, the ones who do just seek to inform without being sensationalist.
Posted by: Sandbank

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/03/2018 11:06

Originally Posted By: Kazz63
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
.....Mr Taylor has explained that his forecast formula uses changes in sunspot activity,....

Pfft; my mother had sunspots and she didn't have a clue it was raining till the clothes on the line got wet ...... wink


Hahaha.....:)
Posted by: SnowyTrainNorth

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/03/2018 18:24

They've been around for years, although in 1890 they were known as weather prophets. Apparently they got this one right. (Glen Innes Examiner, Tuesday 28 October 1890)

Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/03/2018 18:34

Lovely story Snowy, thanks for posting.
I also noticed the art of writing a story in those days is far different and pleasant compared to the crap the media dishes out nowadays.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/03/2018 21:27

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Lovely story Snowy, thanks for posting.
I also noticed the art of writing a story in those days is far different and pleasant compared to the crap the media dishes out nowadays.
Agreed. I was lapping up the brilliant storytelling in that. Beautifully written.
Posted by: PlumbBob

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/03/2018 21:28

Still asking what the weather is most likely like in May in Central Coast NSW, please ?
Have I done somethin' wrong ? Like - ask a question, is this not allowed or somethin' ?
Maybe just my personality ? Forum ethics ?
,
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/03/2018 21:35

Hi i'm off the NSW/ACT forum, where best this question should've been asked. Typically this March-June period is typically the worst for doing anything outside, with May having the 2nd lowest mean sunshine hours. Also it's quite common for an East Coast Low to pop up at this time
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/03/2018 21:46

Still on track to get windy at times for the rest of this week into the weekend with the SE'lies, especially near the coastal fringe, islands and exposed ground where winds could get pretty strong.

Some showers from time to time as well.

I'm looking forward to not having to have my A/C switched on all the time when I'm at home too with the much cooler weather.

Brisbane was 19.8C by 3:30pm this afternoon while Toowoomba was 16.8C at the time (with feels-like temp of 12C).
GFS wind gust map below:


Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/03/2018 22:06

Originally Posted By: PlumbBob
Still asking what the weather is most likely like in May in Central Coast NSW, please ?
Have I done somethin' wrong ? Like - ask a question, is this not allowed or somethin' ?
Maybe just my personality ? Forum ethics ?
,


It would be hard to tell that far out, however looking at the averages for Gosford, May is the 6th wettest month with 118mm, however you could go down there and have clear skies for the time your there. Average maximum is around 20c Minimum 8c
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/03/2018 22:45

Originally Posted By: PlumbBob
Still asking what the weather is most likely like in May in Central Coast NSW, please ?
Have I done somethin' wrong ? Like - ask a question, is this not allowed or somethin' ?
Maybe just my personality ? Forum ethics ?
,
Only just saw your original question now.
For the Central Coast of NSW (assuming you are referring to the area between Newcastle & Sydney)
Late April / 1st half May, expect most nights to be cool. Generally mild days with some cool ones thrown in, could feel chilly if it's windy. April and May are one of the wetter months there (on average). East Coast Lows are a definite possibility at that time of year. I'd expect at least the occasional onshore shower day.
That's not to say you can't get a decent, long period of settled, dry weather though.

If there's an East Coast Low expected and you've still got some holiday time to burn, I'd recommend heading inland e.g. Tamworth/Gunnedah, they are likely to receive significantly less precip than coastal/east range areas due to being west of the Divide.

Having a quick look on Google, most camping grounds seem to be along the coastal fringe, so for the Central Coast, Norah Head is probably the most relevant of the three below (if the grounds are a bit further inland, then Gosford may be more fitting).
Climate Stats for:
Newcastle http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_061055.shtml
Norah Head http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_061366.shtml
Gosford http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_061087.shtml

Hope that helps. smile
Posted by: Bone Dry

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/03/2018 08:28

Nice bit of rain over the last couple of days.

For anybody interested, this time last year we were about -650mm on a rolling 12 months based on long term averages. Today we are currently about +320mm on a rolling 12 months.

It'll be interesting to see if that above average holds by the end of March, as last March was very wet.
Posted by: wetdreams

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/03/2018 12:08

Can we seriously question what’s going on at the BoM?

No Stapy radar for months and now no Gympie radar.
Do we need to go back to wetting our fingers and sticking them in the air for our weather obs in SEQ now???
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/03/2018 12:51

Gympie radar is just Scheduled maintenance.Stapy radar Is pulled while overseas maker sorts it out .Not BOM fault they buy it it meant to work .You don't say it's my fault my car won't run.
Posted by: wetdreams

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/03/2018 13:15

No, but who goes ahead with 104 hours of shutdown maintenance when they know their other vital equipment is already out of action?

Now you have grainy Marburg, then nothing till Gladstone.
Most reasonable planners would not proceed with shutdowns when the network is already limping along.
Posted by: PlumbBob

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/03/2018 14:15

Thanx for the Replies Re: May weather Central Coast, gentlemen cool

Ashestoashes - All good, thought to place in nsw/act section, but I'm not known there, & a little apprehensive. So, cheers for reaching out, champ !
Guess can only hope for no ECL's
-----------------
Gleno - Appreciated, 6 wettest, so, does that also make it the 6th driest, considering 12 months wink I was brought-up down there & use to know when the 'wet season rain months were, but long ago now, & nothing is much certain these days ?
Temps look manageable, We never camp mid summer or mid winter cool
Btw, Awesome photos last time around, Gleno, epic scenes ,,,
-----------------
Seabreeze - Cheers, We will be right on the coast, Urunga, just Sth of Coffs for a week, then The Entrance for 3 weeks, and at Tamworth for a week on way back cool
Appreciate the Links, mate, I never looked that far into the Bom before, wow, excellent stuff - May seems to have been a tad drier than average the last few years, mmmm, hope it stays that way this time around, tho, guest have to take what's given, Lol !
I thought maybe was something in the WZ 12month forecast for the area, I haveN't a 'Pro access' Membership for it, cant justify it for my use, only an onlooker at best cool
-----------------

Rgrds All cool
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/03/2018 14:56

The thing is, is this 'Scheduled Maintenance' ever even mentioned anywhere on the site prior to it occurring? Because I can honestly say that I've never seen it. It'd be nice in such cases if they'd give the public a heads up first instead of just going ahead and doing it without any notice whatsoever.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/03/2018 18:57

Originally Posted By: wetdreams
No, but who goes ahead with 104 hours of shutdown maintenance when they know their other vital equipment is already out of action?

Now you have grainy Marburg, then nothing till Gladstone.
Most reasonable planners would not proceed with shutdowns when the network is already limping along.

Why do we get our cars & machinery serviced regularly?
Because the manufacturers KNOW there needs to be regular maintenance to ensure all the working parts are working correctly & at optimum performance. To skip regular maintenance is to put that piece of equipment at risk of developing a problem, possibly a big problem.
The equipment & systems that need to be maintained in a radar are not your cheap Jaguar car, they are no doubt very delicate and/or very expensive and/or very sensitive. Even the IT side would need a thorough going over I'd assume.
So to merely ignore the need for this maintenance because a nearby system is down also is really gambling on all being well. I am quite sure they don't take the decision lightly.
As I and others have said time & time again, there are other ways of keeping an eye on what is going on; there's no need for concern.
But all Joe Public sees is "how am I gonna know what to do over my Easter break?"
We've just had a month or so of very unstable weather and I can find no fault in what the BOM have told us, what our own weather experts have told us and what was obvious to the naked eye.
I'd suggest those who feel they are somehow in harm's way of any upcoming weather event should head to Mr Google right now, look up the Townsville weather guru & follow his pages & advice because seriously BOM have no charges to answer when it comes to being incompetent during this time. In fact I think they are coping brilliantly.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/03/2018 19:26

It’s all good , you can still look to the horizon. Another 10mm yday , amd ANother 10mm today, 157mm since 530pm Sunday. South Easterly gusts maybe up to about 40k/hr here , nice n cool. Refreshing.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/03/2018 19:51

40kt gusts at Gold Coast seaway. Blow the dog off a leash walking the dog.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/03/2018 20:36

I was happy to see rain ease around midday to 1pm, with decreasing humidity and increasing wind it gave me the opportunity to put a few hours of getting paint on Windows. I was working on trestles at height, and the winds helped me to focus on balance and a steady hand😏
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/03/2018 21:04

Im actually surprised we didn't get more rain from a deep SE flow, unless the upper atmosphere is more stable now.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/03/2018 21:31

Originally Posted By: gleno71
Im actually surprised we didn't get more rain from a deep SE flow, unless the upper atmosphere is more stable now.

Looking at sat water vapour loop northern NSW seems to be near a contrasting dry line of air to the south.
https://weather.us/satellite/1423-e-268-s/satellite-water-vapor-10min.html#play
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/03/2018 23:43

Nice stream showers here tonight and considerably cooler than the past few weeks. I have a feeling that March and April might be like a couple of years ago locally with strong trades the dominant pattern and plenty of coastal showers thrown into the mix.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/03/2018 08:49

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 4.2mm. Max wind E 60kph at 1635.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/03/2018 13:17

http://abc.net.au/news/2018-03-08/bureau...208?pfmredir=sm

LOL. That's one way to use your super computers.
Posted by: KevD

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/03/2018 19:23

Latest EC has some healthy totals off the east coast:



In the 8 to 10 day time frame. Posted for amusement purposes @ this lead time.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/03/2018 19:48

A couple of hundred k's SW please Kev.
Thanks for the amusement!
Getting my order in early.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/03/2018 19:49

I would expect GFS to look more like that in coming runs since most of its ensemble members look very similar to that. That said, it's still a week away which leaves plenty of time for the focus to shift away again.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/03/2018 20:31

Hi all!
Gfs isn’t far off ec in terms of a low coming past, but gfs doesn’t stall it.
Iiiinteresting.
Hardly scientific but I’ve had a “feeling” something substantial is going to happen for about a week now, ‘tis the season.
Might kick the generator over and think forward about a few tasks that might need attention....
Hasn’t stopped raining here much yet. 503mm for the last month and it is WET!
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/03/2018 20:49

What the! EC doing a GFS.

That's the highest rainfall figures I've ever seen spat out by EC in our region. Up to 1400 mm and most of it falls within 24 hours. No way that will happen, definitely a one-run anomaly.

There is model agreement firming on a rain event though. EC has become very interested in a trough feature stalling around WBB/SC/offshore associated with the low that forms and moves across the Coral Sea. Access-G is similar but much lower rain amounts (up to around 350). GFS was interested for a while but now has the low much stronger and moving into the graveyard taking all the rain with it.

Either way it still doesn't make much difference considering the main rain occurs well offshore at this point. One to watch.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 08:31

Wynnum Nth rain since 0900 - 4.6mm.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 08:51

GFS has a weak cyclone approaching SEQ and then veering away at the very last minute (almost touches the coast). EC has a weak low approaching CQ with troughing to the south, but has now reduced the falls to a much more plausible 300 mm bullseye over Fraser Island. Access-G has troughing but widespread falls of 300 mm offshore from CQ.

Definitely something brewing but not much precise agreement yet and SEQ still looks out of the firing zone for the time being. The good news is this is well inside the normal forecast period for the models, not extended anymore.
Posted by: Wight

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 13:43

Meanwhile:

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia...=ob-fb-enau-307

Media beatup?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 13:47

That article's been doing the rounds on dozens of media outlets over this week and originated from a post on a facebook page. I have no words.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 13:55

I recall it getting down to one degree once in Brisbane, it was on the Channel Ten weather report years ago.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 14:23

The coldest recorded temp at Brisbane Airport was -0.6C while the coldest temp at the CBD site (the previous one) was 2.3C (I can't remember if those were superseded last year but I don't think so).

10% of past min temps in July at the current CBD site have been 6.8C or colder (the figure was 5.8C at the previous site).

Naturally, the southwestern suburbs get a fair bit colder with Archerfield's record being -2.5C
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 14:25

Getting picked up and amplified is no accident. Its far worse than mere sensationalism. Forgotten all about by August but that doesn't matter becaue it left a stain.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 15:32

Starting to grieve already that summer and the storms are pretty much over now with these horrid gusty sou easters and winter like skies setting in.Ah well, still time for one more storm hopefully
Posted by: Befour

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 15:42

"I have no words."
I have plenty of words for it, none of which are appropriate for this forum.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 15:48

Why do I get the feeling that we'll lose this low to the SE and it's a second low that'll head towards FNQ. Eagerly awaiting today's ensembles and tonight's EC run.
Posted by: KevD

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 15:55

It's like it has been all season...a brick wall down the coast of SE Qld and much of NSW! Giving GFS one thing and that is the consistency with which the features hits the wall and bounces off to NZ (like all the others)...
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 16:05

There is still a fair disagreement between the models even @ 72hrs though. GFS has a Cat 2 by then while EC just has a weak low. This afternoon's TC Guidance by UKMET isn't picking up anything either which would seem it's closer to EC and is developing whatever does form out there slower. GFS has a habit of developing these things way too quickly which can put its future track off by a fair margin...whether that'll be the case again this time round we'll just have to wait & see.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 16:09

Hahaha Befour
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 16:18

The experimental FV3 model (the one that's eventually going to replace the current GFS) has a similar scenario to GFS in that it brings in a system towards SE QLD before curving it away at the last minute... and another system drifting west onto the northern or central QLD coast.

Meanwhile here's the EC ensemble storm tracks for within the next 10 days (anything from light blue and above = equivalent of Cat 1 or higher):

Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 16:22

Should be noted the stronger members heading SE near New Caledonia are from the current TC Hola...caught me off guard for sec there.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 16:23

Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Starting to grieve already that summer and the storms are pretty much over now with these horrid gusty sou easters and winter like skies setting in.Ah well, still time for one more storm hopefully

I think it's good not to lose hope and to get away from the long-held notion that nothing occurs after summer. While we still have a distinct peak in general thunderstorm activity in late spring and summer, everything doesn't suddenly stop after autumn kicks in like what typically happens in the tropics.
We often (but not always) get a smaller secondary peak later in autumn as shear starts getting stronger, contrasting airmasses and with residual instability. In fact, we've occasionally had some winters of late where we ended up getting more thunderstorms, some severe than some parts of early-mid spring and summer.
Shear often drops off a lot in summer anyway which tends to cause storms to not be as severe (in terms of things like large hail) as spring/early summer).

Not to mention flood events from things like ECL's later in autumn and winter as well e.g. my street in May 2015
Having said that, even those are fewer and far between and less regular than they used to be in the old days:




Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 16:30

Here are the latest GFS ensemble members...still quite a large spread here:

Posted by: Befour

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 16:45

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

I think it's good not to lose hope and to get away from the long-held notion that nothing occurs after summer. While we still have a distinct peak in general thunderstorm activity in late spring and summer, everything doesn't suddenly stop after autumn kicks in like what typically happens in the tropics.
We often (but not always) get a smaller secondary peak later in autumn as shear starts getting stronger, contrasting airmasses and with residual instability. In fact, we've occasionally had some winters of late where we ended up getting more thunderstorms, some severe than some parts of early-mid spring and summer.

Very good call!
Some of the most interesting storms I have witnessed over the past couple of years have actually occurred during April and August down here in Sydney.

Excuse my terrible phone video but this was from the 26th April 2015. This one I loved just for the mass of tiny hail it dumped - there were other suburbs nearby that got a lot more than I did and some incredible photos come out where hail had accumulated at the bottom of hilly streets.
https://youtu.be/pspBrtw_2nw
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 16:48

Thanks guys for reminding me that storms can be a distinct possibility as we go into Autumn.I just get a bit melancholy I guess or maybe it's that wind messing with my psyche haha
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 17:33

No change to EC this evening - still a weak low heading towards CQ - trough & convergence to its south.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 17:51

How much do you wanna bet that it's nowhere near TC status by 72hrs time as GFS seems to suggest.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 18:48

All I want is a good blow, i dont think we will. Im reluctant to even think a low will form in the NE CS as it is. Though in saying that it does look like the MT will be pretty active over the coming weeks.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 18:56

Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Starting to grieve already that summer and the storms are pretty much over now with these horrid gusty sou easters and winter like skies setting in.Ah well, still time for one more storm hopefully

You obviously don't have much to do with "winter sports" eg football. netball, soccer etc? The start of their season (around about now) is notorious for washed out games, fields unusable except for the 'main games"etc. It amazes me that junior sporting groups don't cut the season a few weeks & start after Easter or even after Anzac day to avoid the same troubles year after year.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 19:33

Originally Posted By: Mega
How much do you wanna bet that it's nowhere near TC status by 72hrs time as GFS seems to suggest.



The low is already being called as 90P invest.

Location: 4.5°S 160.0°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 20:15

Latest EC Ensemble members - looks to be more members recurving to the S or SE than this morning's run:

Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 21:12

The whole thing looks like one big tease. Typical GFS beefs it up to a cyclone and plays chicken with SE Qld before swinging away. If the high stalled in the Tasman it would have steered right into us but blocking highs never seem to happen when you want them. Still, I can't see this scenario coming off at all. I think EC is more on the money with troughing but even it's starting to trend S/SE.

Looks like we either get a full-blown system veer away from the coast at the final minute or troughing that more likely dumps the biggest falls offshore.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 21:16

Originally Posted By: Kazz63
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Starting to grieve already that summer and the storms are pretty much over now with these horrid gusty sou easters and winter like skies setting in.Ah well, still time for one more storm hopefully

You obviously don't have much to do with "winter sports" eg football. netball, soccer etc? The start of their season (around about now) is notorious for washed out games, fields unusable except for the 'main games"etc. It amazes me that junior sporting groups don't cut the season a few weeks & start after Easter or even after Anzac day to avoid the same troubles year after year.


Like Tweed I understand what he is putting forth, the classic thunderstorm setup with a nice gust front will probably start to fade into the cooler months with the odd exception. This type of setup is usually only seen a handful of times through the storm season and apart from some thundery rain its not the greatest time for storm chasing enthusiasts. Im not calling it over for storms but it will get further and few between with ofcource the odd exception.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 21:46

That’s like a halfway between yesterday’s event and gfs. 👌

Looks like we can lock in some wind and swell... would have to be a fair bit of rain for seq (given the current soil saturation) in those land crossing coastal recurve outcomes?

Originally Posted By: Mega
Latest EC Ensemble members - looks to be more members recurving to the S or SE than this morning's run:

Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 22:20

Replace event with EC in the above to avoid autocorrect confusion...
Let’s see who wins this argument between supercomputers
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/03/2018 22:44

Just one GFS ensemble member has a crossing now, jeez. Will this be one of those times when the GFS somehow outperforms the Euro?
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 00:15

I think we will get something, once the convection in the eastern Coral Sea breaks down, that's when we will cop it.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 07:33

I thought the whining noise was the wind overnight, but now I realize it was the whinging on this thread, makes me look like a motivational speaker. We went for a drive yesterday down the highway to Glengallen Homestead North of Warwick. The grass is green but even from South West Toowoomba the dry gullies and creaks and low dams start. There are wetter patches in places. You people have had beyond comprehension more. Unless something radical happens, apart from the coastal strip it's a long dry outlook.
Cheers everyone
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 07:39

You might get lucky next week notsohopeful
Depending on track of trough/low/cyclone
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 07:49

Thanks, tsunami, but I should add where I live in the more eastern parts of Toowoomba, even going back to October, we have done massively better.I have absolutely no complaints about what I have received. I just looked at the WATL update. It seems to have even increased the falls for the second 4 days for the coast and hinterland.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 08:01

Sounds like you're complaining.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 08:13

Be complaining next week when he along with us are knee deep in water
Hehehehe
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 08:19

That's it, tsunami. Why would anybody down there want a big rain/cyclone event? It would be terrible.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 08:26

Yup
Went through Yasi
Ill be happy not to live in a place that gets kicked by a cyclone again.
But it was rather exciting
Think i almost prefere earthquakes. Why...you dont know its comming
Yasi .. we knew what was going to happen
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 09:29

I was in Fiji at the time of Cyclone Winston a Category 5 monster that devastated he place and claimed many lives.I always wanted to see and be close to a big cyclone but after that . . . never again.It was sad to see wind just trash a landscape especially a beautiful tropical one at that.The excitement is in the lead up though, not knowing what to expect and how bad it will be.
By the way Kazz63 I suppose I do need to get more of a life for myself , have been feeling a bit lost for the past 9 months not being able to work or surf anymore due to a major injury to my shoulder surfing. Chasing and photographing thunderstorms has always been right up there as far as my passions go.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 09:40

Sorry to hear about your plight Tweedstorm. I was thinking more about flooding than wind damage from any system. I have to go out for a while but if anybody is offended by my post I apologize. I woke up in a really bad mood this morning.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 11:11

Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
.....
By the way Kazz63 I suppose I do need to get more of a life for myself , have been feeling a bit lost for the past 9 months not being able to work or surf anymore due to a major injury to my shoulder surfing. Chasing and photographing thunderstorms has always been right up there as far as my passions go.
Aw sorry, I didn't mean it to come across as a "get a life" sort of post and for my part I misunderstood a bit. You are talking storm set ups, I was talking rain set ups.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 11:11

Here's the spread of scenarios among some of the models (including EC, GFS, ACCESS-G, CMC, etc) for accumulating rainfall amounts and sustained wind speeds for Brisbane over the next 10 days.

Of interest is the large spread (and high uncertainty) of accumulated rainfall scenarios but the tight consensus of wind speeds (low uncertainty) which suggests that even if we do get any decent rainfall (which is far from certain just yet), the impacts from winds may be less than any rainfall impacts according to the current suggestions from these particular models... for Brisbane at least anyway. Still early days though:




Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 11:14

Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
I thought the whining noise was the wind overnight, but now I realize it was the whinging on this thread, makes me look like a motivational speaker. We went for a drive yesterday down the highway to Glengallen Homestead North of Warwick. The grass is green but even from South West Toowoomba the dry gullies and creaks and low dams start. There are wetter patches in places. You people have had beyond comprehension more. Unless something radical happens, apart from the coastal strip it's a long dry outlook.
Cheers everyone
Just curious about that area you speak of. The rain will come eventually, so how many new dams & other water storage facilities have been put there in order to get maximum benefit of anything that comes along?
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 13:42

Some onshore showers affecting the GC at the moment. Perfect ingredient to feed the Tropics/Goc and CS strengthening trade winds so will see what area sparks up from it.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 13:51

Just down the New England Hway From Toowoomba to Warwick. Kazz63. You may have read MichaelE2Sky's posts. It has been a dry frustrating summer, but although things have improved a good dump of rain is still needed. As for dams and such, I do not think anything has been done for decades but I could be corrected. That may be one for the political thread as to why not.
Cheers
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 14:17

Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Just down the New England Hway From Toowoomba to Warwick. Kazz63. You may have read MichaelE2Sky's posts. It has been a dry frustrating summer, but although things have improved a good dump of rain is still needed. As for dams and such, I do not think anything has been done for decades but I could be corrected. That may be one for the political thread as to why not.
Cheers
While yes, the government could build more dams out that way, I was referring to the land owners. There's facility there to gain funding from Government loans etc, why haven't people started helping themselves? If they re not proactive about their future they may as well pack up & move to a better location. Can't claim to be farmer if they don't manage their land to a self sufficient state.
I don't see it as a political problem at all.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 14:39

Building dams is great if the money is available to already struggling farmers but government loans are still just that, a loan. It's been a hard few years and they just cant stand more debt even in the south west. And to add to that you need the rain to fill the dams. Many have empty dams. We have a small dam out the front and havent had more than a puddle in it for over 3 years. 100mm in a month helps with grass but unless we get 100mm in a downpour the dams remain empty. The heavy downpours have been patchy at best and without consistent falls they empty out pretty quick.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 16:29

Lively shower atm. Gone quite dark.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 16:53

Looks like some of the GFS ensemble members are finally starting to fall inline with EC - many still out to sea though - but might be the start of a trend:



UKMET has this low crossing at Gladstone:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 18.9S 154.9E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 14.03.2018 18.6S 153.3E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 14.03.2018 19.4S 152.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 15.03.2018 21.1S 151.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 15.03.2018 22.2S 151.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 16.03.2018 24.1S 151.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 18:25

Nothing special about EC - weak low crossing the coast at about St Lawrence, heavy rain remains offshore of SEQ along a NW/SE trough linked to the low. Watch GFS fall inline soon.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 18:30

On the subject of the GFS ensemble, below are what its members are doing as of the latest run (I don't trust the 00z runs but here it is for info purposes anyway).

1st graphic is for the disturbance currently near the Solomon Islands.

2nd graphic is for the whole northern area for within the next 10 days (34kt being equivalent to Cat 1 intensity but the map doesn't attempt to distinguish between strong winds in the tropics and those in midlatitudes). Also note that any zones of >34kt winds will usually be skewed to the south of any tropical systems due to the pressure gradient typical on their southern flanks:




Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 18:32

I noticed - how come that chart only shows 4 members? The spread chart I posted earlier shows many more of the 50 members with some clearly edging back towards CQ now (though I think if it does end up doing that it'll only be very weak).
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 18:50

Either scenario looks like a complete no show for SEQ anyway.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 18:58

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Either scenario looks like a complete no show for SEQ anyway.


Oh yeah I forgot SEQ only covers Brisbane to NE NSW.

My bad.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 18:59

If said low can overcome the 40knot NW upper level steering winds expected over the period. BoM 4 day maps have low being caught up by this and turned south well before it sniffs the coast.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 19:01

Originally Posted By: Mega
I noticed - how come that chart only shows 4 members? The spread chart I posted earlier shows many more of the 50 members with some clearly edging back towards CQ now (though I think if it does end up doing that it'll only be very weak).

I take it you're referring to the chart in this post? http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...eat#Post1456526

If so, I think it could either be that the members near the central coast are clustering around a 2nd separate system (local deepening of a trough, a low, etc) than the the current Solomon Islands disturbance.... or for whatever reason, a lot of the members were unable to follow the track the current system in the track spread map (or the data didn't make it into the system which generates those maps).

Either way though, there's only 21 members in the GFS ensemble. The EC ensemble has 51 members.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 19:03

Whoops - yes, I meant the 21 - the Euro is the one with 51. But it's definitely the same system, imo. The track of those few ensembles are almost identical to that of UK / NAVGEM / EC. GFS and CMC are now the only models even showing this developing into a TC and slipping SE.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 20:15

I recon its going by sniffing Hola's heels on NZ north island.
Amazing Kiwis got more of anything this season apart from that soaking up north.
5mm today from those frisky showers & drizzle.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 20:27

Things can still change within 10 days... but ill bet nothing coming close to us as anything severe.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 20:31

Onshore shower activity bringing 0.4mm since 9am today, 4.2mm in the 24hrs to 9am this morning, and 3.0mm in the 24hr to 9am period before that. The onshore showers should clear off from the local area by tomorrow evening.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 20:42

Nearly 1.5mm in gusty, cool mist and light showers through out the day on strong SE winds. Felt like I was on the coast.
Posted by: pabloako

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 21:34

Some very heavy showers here today bring 10.4mm so far, plus with the ground so saturated, it all just runs off down the hill. Tanks are over flowing too.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 21:42

GFS, gone from one extreme to the other and completely evapourates this system just off the coast into completely nothingness in the latest run.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 21:51

Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
GFS, gone from one extreme to the other and completely evapourates this system just off the coast into completely nothingness in the latest run.


lmao, classic GFS.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/03/2018 22:23

Sometimes GFS gives CMC a run for its money.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/03/2018 08:08

Hows that 12z EC is inline with 12z GFS now... looks like its going S.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/03/2018 08:32

Latest BOM State forecast for Thurs to Sat has low/trough moving onto cental/southern coasts thursdayish & inland after that with a high degree of uncertainty. I recon with BOM thinking in might move onto the coast is against current models atm. Pls correct me if I am reading it wrong. There is still some hope of getting something.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/03/2018 08:41

When this morning's state forecast was created, the data from the 12z EC run that shows that system curving to the south would've only just started coming in and even then, the data for all the forecast days wouldn't have come in yet (typically finishes by just before 5pm).
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/03/2018 09:01

Thanks Ken, interesting couple days ahead.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/03/2018 09:13

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 8.0mm.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/03/2018 10:02

Wanda was a weak system and look what happened in 1974, it may not have much wind but it still bring heavy rain and with catchments saturated, there could be flooding issues if it comes off.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/03/2018 10:40

If this rain don't stop down here there's going to be flooding before that system even starts up.The showers down here are getting more constant and heavier.At least the wind has died off very grateful for that.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/03/2018 10:45

I had to Google what type of weather high pressure systems provide.
I was expecting "high pressure gives strong winds and showers and rain"

The true meaning "mainly fine and settled weather".

So there must be a low off the coast lol
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/03/2018 10:46

And when you look at the rain radars it's as though barely a drop is falling.Pouring with rain all morning down here
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/03/2018 10:58

Same here TS, not a pixel on radar but steady on off drizzle for the last hr or more.
Come back Stapy
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/03/2018 11:08

If this system does make it to the coast, hope Stapy will be ooeration. Marburg doesnt reflect real rain rates, but one can judge blue being yellow, yellow being orange and orange being black. Thats how I would look at it. 6mm from yesterdays down pours where radar only showed light blue/blue.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/03/2018 12:34

So orange is the new black, heard that somewhere else.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/03/2018 12:51

Just thought I'd whip this up showing what the multi-model/ ensemble of ensembles is suggesting.
Then drawn abit on it for something to do. so yea don't take my painting literally smile

Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/03/2018 13:01

Someone told me yesterday in Kingaroy that March will be the wettest month in history.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/03/2018 15:03

Is that as far back as when the dinosaurs roamed the earth lol
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/03/2018 15:11

I concede now, definitely. There's a shortwave trough which amplifies through NSW / eastern QLD mid-week which in all honesty wasn't modeled very well a few days ago (it was supposed to sit further west with the upper ridge running through to the coast). So yeah, ruined by another trough.

And BTW - it may very well end up that GFS was right with its SE track all along - just overcooked it.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/03/2018 15:46

If it really deepened and became a descent system near the 160e I guess you can't really lock it in yet. Just looking at some of those mid to upper level winds they don't seem that clear cut amongst some models. Is there alot of shear could be weak steering?
Theres also the combination of that trough and ridge to its north.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/03/2018 15:49

It depends on whether it forms or not. The computer models could be too eager to place a short wave trough over eastern Australia.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/03/2018 18:35

Latest suggestion from the UK ensemble (MOGREPS) has most members currently keeping the Solomon Islands system out to sea while an outlier brings it onto the coast:


Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/03/2018 19:59

Might have a bet on it.What price would I get about 50 to 1.Praying for anything that doesn't generate more showery windy weather but I guess that's what we're lookin at again.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/03/2018 22:21

A few days ago we had mainly fine weather when it had been forecast around 40% chance of rain.
Yesterday afternoon was forecast to be 5% chance of rain, we got a short downpour of about 5mm.
Today was forecast to be 50% chance of rain 1 to few mm and we got periodic drizzle.
Seems to me that putting forecast probabilities or probable rain amounts in marginal rainfall situations is not much value for rain less than 10mm. Perhaps it would better labelled as rain less than 10mm possible and umbrella may be handy.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/03/2018 22:24

As far as I'm concerned if we want any rainfall from this system. It has to remain weak and don't develop too much depth. It'll ride the surface ridge onto the coast. Any depth it'll stay further off the coast by that bloody upper trough. You can see how GFS has it as a deeper system and it's quite far off the coast. EC has it a little bit weaker and it's just off the coast. Nogaps have it weaker and pushes it onto the coast.

I suppose the best case scenario is if it struggles to develop for the next few days so it'll have the best chance of getting quite close to the coast hopefully to around the 150 degree mark and then it could intensify and even if it moves South/ or South East it'll give us some interesting weather along the coast.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 09:00

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 6.2mm. Mornings cooling down - today's min 16.4C.
Posted by: Stormwithin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 09:05

My front yard is mush and the creek has been up and down over the bridge for longer than a week. A day or two of decent rainfall is probably going to cause issues here. I can't remember where to locate ground saturation data, can anyone assist?
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 09:17

1mm last 24hrs from all them light showers.
Recon we'll need something short of a miracle to get anything decent out here this week. All strictly coastal & over water by the looks of the models. Pity, looks rather pretty up there atm.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 09:24

Originally Posted By: Stormwithin
I can't remember where to locate ground saturation data, can anyone assist?


http://www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape/#/sm_pct/Actual/Day/-27.52/152.12/8/Point/Separate///2018/3/11
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 09:33

Thanks for that link Flowin. Very handy Bookmarked. Also a heavy dew this morning.
Posted by: Stormwithin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 11:24

Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: Stormwithin
I can't remember where to locate ground saturation data, can anyone assist?


http://www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape/#/sm_pct/Actual/Day/-27.52/152.12/8/Point/Separate///2018/3/11


Thanks Flowin 😃😃😃
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 12:04

Hello Stapy
Welcome back!
Posted by: whethertraveller

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 14:19

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Hello Stapy
Welcome back!



Yippee, hope it continues working, how I missed it. Hard to believe back in the 90's the old radars like Marburg were all we could see online
Posted by: Taylsy

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 14:29

Now that Stapy is back up and running, that will ensure there is nothing to see for the next fortnight!
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 14:37

Not if you read the cyclone thread. Things getting interesting!
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 16:07

It was always looking like a TC to form east of New Cal but the shift to the SE on approach has been shown on numerous data sources. Not getting my hopes up for anything to extreme for our neck of the woods.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 17:10

I think you meant west of New Cal, Stevo.
But we know what you meant. 2 more sleeps & we'll know if, where & which way.
Just wish that bloody trough would throw out an anchor.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 17:20

Yes sorry M.E too much excitment. The way some of our upper troughs end up could very well retrograde and head back into Western QLD if that happens. Then that will make things interesting.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 18:30

Extremely unlikely to happen now that it's 2 days away.

As much crap as I give GFS, it nailed this particular trough almost a week ago while EC was bringing this low onto the CQ along a big upper ridge.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 18:32

True. Apart of me wants it to go against the forecasts.

Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 18:41

All over rover
Bit of wind. Again. A tease and off it goes
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 18:47

Thought I’d repost some of what I posted in the other thread since it’s relevant to our area as well:

“ I still think it's more unlikely than likely re a major TC impact (rather than a weak low). Unless the upstream upper trough is less progressive than forecast, the system would have to get through a massive wall of strong shear (and marginal SST's) to get here intact, let alone not be steered away back out to sea.

A number of the models including the often-reliable HWRF still going for that offshore scenario on the 00z track guidance: “


Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 19:24

That map tells me that one day we will get one.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 19:27

Originally Posted By: Steve O
That map tells me that one day we will get one.


It will happen but when? Nobody knows. Could be 10 years. Could be 100 years. Hamish was the last one to even come close. The others (Marcia, Debbie, Oswald) were all rain depressions by the time they made it down here.
Posted by: whethertraveller

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 19:31

What does Redland City Council know that we don't? They put out a media release around 2 hours ago. It's on their website "Prep for the Wet" Redland City Council is establishing self-service sandbagging stations across the City ahead of heavy rainfall and strong winds expected later this week.

The sandbagging stations will open Tuesday 13 March and Wednesday 14 March 10am to 6pm weather permitting.

Wednesdays BOM forecast says 2mm rain, Thursday 4mm
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 19:40

Maybe some storm surge for the bay area. Guess its only precaution I imagine there might be some squally showers and moderate wind gusts.
Posted by: dan

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 19:53

Originally Posted By: whethertraveller
What does Redland City Council know that we don't?



I have put that question to them and awaiting a reply.
Posted by: whethertraveller

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 19:58

Originally Posted By: Steve O
Maybe some storm surge for the bay area. Guess its only precaution I imagine there might be some squally showers and moderate wind gusts.


Redland City Council are saying "heavy rainfall" that's not storm surge, however they may also have storm surge. Here's what they placed on their website this afternoon.
http://news.redland.qld.gov.au/2018/03/prep-for-the-wet-fill-your-own-sandbags/
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 19:58

Hamish track for anyone whose forgotten, and the 300mb upper level pattern at the time - note the big longwave trough amplifying through western NSW/QLD. We dodged a major bullet here - had said trough tilted further then there would have been every chance for Hamish to drift southwards or SSW onto the Fraser Coast - luckily though the trough collapsed (from the 9th), wind shear increased and ripped the top off the storm while it drifted away from the coast.



So yes it's always possible. But so much more unlikely the further south you go as there are far more variables and every one of those variables has to match up perfectly.
Posted by: nocturnal1

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 20:03

More than happy if this turns out to be a fizzer, given what ex-TC Debbie did to this area last year. Some still haven't fully recovered from that. It was a flood for the record books.
Posted by: whethertraveller

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 20:08

Originally Posted By: dan
Originally Posted By: whethertraveller
What does Redland City Council know that we don't?



I have put that question to them and awaiting a reply.


Thankyou Dan, good idea.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 20:25

I always had a question if there can be a depression/cyclone that can bulldoze its way through an upper trough? How deep/hpa would it need to get, or if its even possible?
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 20:40

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
I always had a question if there can be a depression/cyclone that can bulldoze its way through an upper trough? How deep/hpa would it need to get?


Not without the cloud tops being ripped off the centre of circulation. So you'd end up with a heavily sheared system that either becomes part of the trough (with non tropical characteristics, in those cases heaviest rainfall and strongest winds are almost always to the south of the centre itself) or you get a naked low level circulation centre which just drifts in the direction that the surface winds are pushing it (this is what happened to Hamish). As far as I know, you can get cyclones that survive through an upper trough but they will never thrive close to or under them. They will almost always be either turned extratropical or sheared to near-death.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 20:57

One thing that can sometimes happen is if a TC is drifting say west at a similar speed as a retrograding (retreating) upper trough but managing to stay downstream of it and just outside the stronger shear. In this case, any southern outflow channel (upper level) with the TC can sometimes be enhanced as air gets whisked away from its southern flank from the upper levels of the TC if there's strong upper level northwesterlies on its southern periphery (this can sometimes be caused by a jet streak to the south as well).
Marcia was an example where it was downstream of an upper trough which was retrograding west.

But in these cases, the TC didn't barrel through the upper trough.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 21:01

Yep well said Ken...I think that describes the Hamish scenario well too - once that trough collapsed and the remnants pushed east, that was the end of him.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 21:09

Fascinating, thanks Mega & Ken.
Posted by: Steven

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/03/2018 22:41

Originally Posted By: dan
Originally Posted By: whethertraveller
What does Redland City Council know that we don't?



I have put that question to them and awaiting a reply.


Redland Bay Council areas also include some of the islands offshore don't they? They would most definitely face more of a threat from high waves...
Posted by: Hailin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 07:59

Severe Weather Warning
for DANGEROUS SURF
For people in parts of Wide Bay and Burnett and Southeast Coast Forecast Districts.
Issued at 5:00 am Tuesday, 13 March 2018.
Dangerous surf conditions developing along the southern Queensland coast during Wednesday.
Dangerous surf conditions are expected to develop during Wednesday morning along the east coast of Fraser Island and the Sunshine Coast, and then extend southwards to the Gold Coast during Wednesday afternoon and evening. These conditions are likely to persist into Thursday.
Although water levels on the high tide early Wednesday morning may approach or slightly exceed the highest tide of the year along the open beaches, significant innundation of low lying areas is not expected.
Weather Situation: At 4 am Tuesday, a tropical low was located over the eastern Coral Sea approximately 1300 km northeast of the Sunshine Coast and moving towards the south. The low is expected strengthen a little and adopt a southwesterly track today, bringing it closer to southeast Queensland overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Subsequently, the low is most likely to curve to the south during Wednesday, keeping it off the southern Queensland coast. Gale force winds over the southern flank of the low are expected to produce large east to southeasterly swells along exposed parts of the southern Queensland coast from Wednesday.
Locations which may be affected include Noosa, Maroochydore, Caloundra and Coolangatta.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 08:56

Have posted this elsewhere earlier this morning but will post it in here as well since it's relevant:


WHAT WE DO KNOW - The tropical disturbance will probably intensify further as it tracks SW across the Coral Sea & approaches the coast.

WHAT WE DON'T KNOW (for sure) - What it'll do once it reaches waters off the QLD coast. There's 3 main scenarios:
1) If it curves away just before reaching the southern QLD coast but still comes close enough, gusty winds (how strong or weak they are depends on how close it comes to the coast) and dangerous big surf will occur along the coast....and in fact, most showers will probably clear up & become confined to the islands & the more exposed parts of the coastal fringe later this week as winds become less onshore while the system passes by us.
2) If it comes ashore somewhere on the QLD coast, it's likely to be weaker by the time it crosses the coast. This scenario would probably cause an increase in showers/some rain areas for any locations near & just to its south & perhaps some gusty winds depending on its strength at the time.
3) It stalls just off the coast, hovers around erratically & weakens.

Of all of these scenarios, no.1 is more likely than the others (although the others can't completely be ruled out just yet).

Wed/Thu looks like being the time when closest point of approach to the coast occurs but by this time, it could be undergoing extratropical transition depending on what track it takes.

For SEQ to have any chance of being hit by a major tropical cyclone this week, the Coral Sea system would not only have to battle through a wall of strong shear (where winds become much stronger aloft & disrupts the structure inside the TC) associated with an approaching upper level trough, it'd also have to avoid being steered away from the coast by this upper trough AND it'd also have to put up with waters that are a bit cooler & borderline for sustaining tropical cyclones (this last aspect isn't as important as the stronger shear & steering influences on the system though).
The only way this system would survive as a major TC to the coast is if the approaching upper trough slows down & stays further west than currently forecast (something that's not impossible & has happened before but still something that's unlikely).... or the Coral Sea system moves faster than expected.

Here's what some of the ensembles (in this case, the EC and GFS ensembles) are currently going for colour-coded by intensity. Grey = extratropical, light blue = below TC intensity, greens and above = equivalent of Cat 1 intensity or stronger:


Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 09:14

Thanks for your input Ken, so its all a matter of timing.
Posted by: gawain

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 10:00

Thanks for that Ken.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 10:17

only one decision to make , noosa or kirra ?
Posted by: Befour

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 10:21

Interesting stuff, Thanks for the post Ken that was a great read.
Posted by: dan

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 11:37

i got a rely back from redlands council


Hi Dan, thanks for reaching out. The messaging we've put out is to encourage residents to be prepared for the expected heavy rainfall. There are residents in low-lying areas and the island residents are sometimes affected by these storms. Thanks, Emma
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 11:41

a good swell looks the best bet , system will get its head blown off for sure before it gets near us. its no hope. where are they getting the heavy rainfall advice from?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 11:48

Upper level trough and a low of Fraser Island. That is a good set up for flooding rain. Not sure why models aren't forecasting more rain. Being prepared for the possibility that the models are wrong and we get flooding rain is not a bad idea in my opinion.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 12:03

cracking set up , especially if it was slow moving. Maybe that's it , they think this system, by then, will have the skates on?
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 12:06

Good looking shower trains moving along just off the coast on Stapy.
Mofels keep the big rains over water, mabe that'll change?
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 12:19

Yeah was looking at that, i'm at a loss as to why the shower activity is increasing when its the same weather pattern as yesterday, yet we had mainly fine weather yesterday?
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 13:15

Trying real hard to rain atm, few spits here & there. Stapy must be calibrated nicely.
Posted by: gberg

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 13:34

Originally Posted By: gleno71
Yeah was looking at that, i'm at a loss as to why the shower activity is increasing when its the same weather pattern as yesterday, yet we had mainly fine weather yesterday?


Bom mentioned in their forecast that a trough was supposed to move west from the coral sea which would enhance showers so that must be the difference Gleno.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 13:47

Originally Posted By: gberg
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Yeah was looking at that, i'm at a loss as to why the shower activity is increasing when its the same weather pattern as yesterday, yet we had mainly fine weather yesterday?


Bom mentioned in their forecast that a trough was supposed to move west from the coral sea which would enhance showers so that must be the difference Gleno.


Yes I seen that in the QLD forecast however when checking the winds there's no sign of winds clashing from different directions which generally shows where the trough is located
Posted by: PlumbBob

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 14:21

Awesome reading through this Re: coral sea system, last few days, Great to know what the possible scenarios are and possible effects on the coastal areas, which seem 'not to shabby' in reality. Could have been a lot worse if not 'protected' in-a-sense, to the extent of the upper level trough and relevant sheer cool
Credits to all & thnx smile
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 16:19

Wanda was only a weak cyclone when she made landfall but she brought flooding rains to SEQ.
Posted by: whethertraveller

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 16:26

Originally Posted By: dan
i got a rely back from redlands council


Hi Dan, thanks for reaching out. The messaging we've put out is to encourage residents to be prepared for the expected heavy rainfall. There are residents in low-lying areas and the island residents are sometimes affected by these storms. Thanks, Emma


Thankyou Dan. So RCC are still thinking there may be heavy rain, that's interesting when BOM aren't forecasting that. I can understand inundation from storm surge or waves on the islands, or in places like Victoria Point Cleveland etc but the rain is puzzling. I don't mind if that doesn't happen, the ground here is already saturated, so with strong winds many of the large trees around here could be affected.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 17:08

Someone in the Redland Bay Council oviously didn't really look into the forecast and just caught onto some hype and hey presto.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 17:15

Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: gberg
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Yeah was looking at that, i'm at a loss as to why the shower activity is increasing when its the same weather pattern as yesterday, yet we had mainly fine weather yesterday?


Bom mentioned in their forecast that a trough was supposed to move west from the coral sea which would enhance showers so that must be the difference Gleno.


Yes I seen that in the QLD forecast however when checking the winds there's no sign of winds clashing from different directions which generally shows where the trough is located


What you should look for is the clockwise curvature of the winds sometimes they are not that well defined with a weak trough but generally if a trough is to your west the winds will either be turning from SW to Nw'ly they arnt usually clashing together in the upper levels but on the surface when you have winds clashing together that is convergence associated with surface trough and onshore winds.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 17:46

Also puzzled by Redland Council. I lived there during ex Wanda which saw a combined big tide, heavy rain and strong northerly winds which would be expected to produce flooding along the coastline and backed up creeks - with the narrowing of Moreton Bay towards the Redlands, but the result was insignificant at Victoria Point at least which is open to the north.

With this current tropical low there will be even less chance of coastal issues as the winds will be more southerly which will be largely OFFSHORE in Redlands. Woody Point area at Redcliffe would be more in line for coastal issues with this low, than the Redlands.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 17:59

RWM, councils seem to be more trying to be proactive, ahead on the game, in recent years, especially since the QLD inspector emergency management has done a number of reviews. Google IGEM QLD to see some reviews.
Nonetheless I agree, heavy rain is not a sensible trigger for their advice as no indications yet of this. Wind I would understand as a trigger for SEQ generally, noting your points about Redland specifics, perhaps bay is less chance than more open areas from waves or big seas. Electricity utilities around SEQ may be busy in days ahead.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 19:34

It's not just Redland Council saw on the news there is a fair few other areas doing sand bagging so check out your local council website. As for heavy rain and a major event I give that a 2% chance. Not disagreeing its better to be safe than sorry.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 20:48

Are the days ahead worthy of an event thread?
I would be happy to start one, but what would we call it?
" TC Linda degrading to weaker system, most likely no landfall, but some chance?"
Posted by: james1977

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 21:08

Linda no show maybe?
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 21:22

Yep do it smile
Don't worry seabreeze will edit it if need be.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 21:29

Event of some description in new thread here:
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...g_o#Post1457061
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/03/2018 21:40

Forecast synopsis in simpler terms.
Somewhere will get weather.
Media will sensationalise.
Somebody will do something stupid.. Related to above but could be something else.
Somebody will do something brave.
Someone after the event will claim they were right.
Interesting to see
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/03/2018 20:57

Looks to gradually get hotter than normal over the coming days (provided ex-Linda's remains don't do some unforecast act) before temps go back down mid next week with another burst of gusty S to SE'lies.
Posted by: Corretto

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/03/2018 17:21

Unofficial weather forecaster Higgins Storm Chasing criticised for alarmist social media flood post. Title says it all laugh

www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-15
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/03/2018 17:40

You know he use to be apart of this forum and many others who run FB weather pages. I have read many posts on those pages and its very similar to how we post on here. Theres a few pages I really like to follow on FB but mainly its just people who use to post here all very knowledgeable in the weather. Nitso from Oz Cyclone Chasers is why I first visited these forums and fortunately there are still people here with very interesting thoughts so thankful for that. So its a pretty good community I reckon anyway.AS for the above post I think its just gone too far. How is this making headlines there's bigger issues in the world.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/03/2018 18:12

That post probably came off as if I thinl its ok to over sensationalise a weather forecast well I dont its just the norm on social media it all sorts of groups even retail giants hence why these forums are the main source of weather info which is most interesting. Dont get me started on social media lol
Posted by: J D

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/03/2018 19:49

In one word "Hollywood"
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/03/2018 20:41

Today's weather was close to perfect autumn day in my opinion.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/03/2018 20:54

Originally Posted By: Flowin
Today's weather was close to perfect autumn day in my opinion.


Today's weather was close to a perfect day in my opinion.
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/03/2018 21:29

Lesson: The BOM are the point of truth for anything weather.
FB pages should be used for real time reports and not hyped up crap that could happen
FB pages and other web weather pages to be taken with a grain of salt.
Even the weather zone get their info from the BOM or they should because and i am tiring of saying it - the bom are the single point of truth. These forums are just that , forums for anyone to express whatever they want. The forums is not a place for media or other outlets to make a story from.
Cheers smile
Now can we please get smashed by at least one cyclone this season, um because and i make no apology for this, because i love severe weather smile
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/03/2018 21:30

Else bring on winter and Guyra snow chases and the Brisbane lions winning some games.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/03/2018 21:40

Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Else bring on winter and Guyra snow chases and the Brisbane lions winning some games.


I'm going to tip that Guyra will get more snow days then the Lions winning games... Hopefully it's a high number!
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/03/2018 21:53

I'm keen for a 3rd record warm winter in a row.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/03/2018 21:56

There's nothing wrong with forecasting I believe it should be a subject at school as it also relates to maths and science and numeracy and literature etc. How far can you accurately forecast is the question? Weeks out for sure but months possibly past that could be as roll of the dice. Truely is fascinating. To say only the bureau can forecast officially imo is not entirely true as I really believe there are people out there that can do it really well qualified or not. If it's a passion anyone can go as far as they can take it and thats in any field.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/03/2018 22:02

Speaking of forecasting weren't we supposed to be getting showers from this system off the coast? Looks like fine conditions now until next Tuesday/wednesday
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/03/2018 22:13

Isn't that the beauty of it though? If it was easy then it wouldn't be fascinating. The surface winds became more S'ly even SSW'ly which does not direct showers onshore. The simple shift to the east and the absolute disintegration of EX-TC Linda took any chance of showers or gusty winds with it. Which was forecast a week or so ago..
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/03/2018 23:01

Originally Posted By: Steve O
Isn't that the beauty of it though? If it was easy then it wouldn't be fascinating. The surface winds became more S'ly even SSW'ly which does not direct showers onshore. The simple shift to the east and the absolute disintegration of EX-TC Linda took any chance of showers or gusty winds with it. Which was forecast a week or so ago..


Yes it had linda sweeping down towards the SE, but I don't think that happened, cheers for the reply
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/03/2018 23:08

Last I saw it was east of us as somekind of rotation seeming it came from 19S and 159E it moved to the SE coast it never once was forecast to come onshore. It was forecast to be ripped to bits as it entered cooler waters and strong shear environment(I certainly had my fingers crossed but unfortunatly will keep waiting til next time.) Not sure what exactly you mean but yea I wanted to see and hear it too but she never came. All good GlenO.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/03/2018 08:02

Originally Posted By: gleno71
Speaking of forecasting weren't we supposed to be getting showers from this system off the coast? Looks like fine conditions now until next Tuesday/wednesday
gleno: Nope, once ex-Linda came far enough south, the showers were always forecast to become confined to some of the most extreme parts of the coastal fringe and islands as winds turned more southerly - see posts made about it earlier in this thread below:


Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Not to mention the obvious point of any precip becoming confined to the islands and the more exposed parts of the coastal fringe as winds turn more southerly as the system passes by offshore (if that scenario occurs).


Last sentence:
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
WHAT WE DON'T KNOW (for sure) - What it'll do once it reaches waters off the QLD coast. There's 3 main scenarios:
1) If it curves away just before reaching the southern QLD coast but still comes close enough, gusty winds (how strong or weak they are depends on how close it comes to the coast) and dangerous big surf will occur along the coast....and in fact, most showers will probably clear up & become confined to the islands & the more exposed parts of the coastal fringe later this week as winds become less onshore while the system passes by us.


RWM said the same thing the other day as well.

Ex-Linda also did start curving towards the S then SSE - see map below which shows the observed track (black line) up to 10pm last night compared with some of the forecast track scenarios from the EC, UK and GFS ensembles that were run back on Tuesday night:


Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/03/2018 09:29

If Linda had been more on the western edge of that spread of scenarios we might have got some more showers, particularly any of the ones crossing the coast to the north of us. But that was a small number out of all the possible scenarios so never a high chance.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/03/2018 15:27

forecast did very well i thought. beautiful weather these last two days.
Posted by: wetdreams

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/03/2018 17:56

Damn straight Big T!
Pretty much the perfect day today. My only complaint is working getting in the way of surfing.
That low could set out there for another 4 months (or until my water tanks get too empty again) if it guarantees weather like this.. grin
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/03/2018 18:06

Cheers guys and thanks Ken, yes clear skies again, cant remember the last time we had Clear Skies prior to today, would have to be over 3 weeks ago
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/03/2018 14:58

Is it safe now to believe looking at the four-day forecast Bureau charts and models that from Tuesday to Friday a massive High sits in the Southern Tasman? In my experience and amateurish abilities to read synoptic charts, there will be windy showery conditions for the coast and hinterland. Reading the NSW/ACT Thread there seems to be something that brings some big falls to the central to north NSW coast. Magnificent day up here and imagine it will be very windy here too over that period.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/03/2018 18:16

Yep nothing much in store for us except for somewhat hot days til around midweek when another round of gusty cooler SE'lies kicks in with some possible showers.
Some weak instability may try to cause a few of them to become big enough to produce a bit of localised thunder. Bit of instability in northern parts on Monday also. Yawn.

Some places in eastern NSW could challenge all-time heat records on Sunday. Sydney's official forecast currently going for 39C.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/03/2018 08:51

The end of the EC runs are really trying to throw down a soaking.
Posted by: Befour

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/03/2018 09:10

They have upped that to 40 now Ken.

Still nice and cool here this morning so far, I have the doors and windows open to cool the place down as much as I can before it hits, then AC time.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/03/2018 14:46

Originally Posted By: Befour
They have upped that to 40 now Ken.

Still nice and cool here this morning so far, I have the doors and windows open to cool the place down as much as I can before it hits, then AC time.



That's one thing I don't miss about Sydney weather, the inconsistency , 40 one day, 21 the next.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/03/2018 14:48

Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Is it safe now to believe looking at the four-day forecast Bureau charts and models that from Tuesday to Friday a massive High sits in the Southern Tasman? In my experience and amateurish abilities to read synoptic charts, there will be windy showery conditions for the coast and hinterland. Reading the NSW/ACT Thread there seems to be something that brings some big falls to the central to north NSW coast. Magnificent day up here and imagine it will be very windy here too over that period.



For some reason the next high pressure to move in seems to be more flatter providing a easterly fetch. Unsure why some highs have that shape, and some highs are able to ridge up the coast giving us fine conditions. This next high will give ua misery unless you love the wet stuff
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/03/2018 20:10

Interesting pattern setting up over the country in the next week or so. Big high builds through the Tasman Sea as you guys say (long easterly fetch onto the coast). Then through the interior and far west some very strong upper troughing (though models differ as to how far east that troughing gets), and then you throw in a new low expected to develop off the NT coast in the next 5 days, and another possible low in the Coral Sea. At this stage not much except scattered coastal showers for us but good to see the big upper ridge over the middle of the country finally replaced by some troughing.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/03/2018 21:03

Is a 1041hpa high normal for this time of year. Can't remember the last time I saw such a "high" pressure system.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/03/2018 21:36

Not sure snapper but ive heard we are in for a very cold winter so perhaps the big high might be things to come
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/03/2018 21:55

I remember seeing a 1045Hpa high in the Tasman Sea back in early 2010.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/03/2018 08:01

Big highs staying south tend to become more common around early to mid autumn.

For today, some modest instability near the coast (mainly in the north) so there's just the slight chance of a hit & miss shower or thundershower being steered ashore late this afternoon or evening.... but moisture looks very shallow so I'd say the majority of places will probably get very little, if anything at all.

Still looking at a few more warm days before windy cooler conditions with some showers kick in mid to late this week with another burst of SE winds.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/03/2018 09:18

Plenty of fog around here since early morning, just started lifting.
Posted by: vjknight

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/03/2018 12:36

Hi guys

yet again that request - any forecasts for Brisbane and into NENSW over the easter period.

thanks inadvance.
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/03/2018 17:43

Just noticed on the Himawari colour IR you can actually see the Diamantina and Thompson floodwaters!
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/03/2018 17:49

Gotta love how 2 big upper troughs through the middle of the country still ain't enough to capture what's likely to be TC Nora later this week near the Gulf. Stubborn old ****.
Posted by: Kino

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/03/2018 17:50

If she goes anywhere near there not convinced of that as yet.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/03/2018 17:52

Originally Posted By: Kino
If she goes anywhere near there not convinced of that as yet.


Yeah still worth keeping an eye on, just not a scenario that's favored by any model as yet.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/03/2018 17:54

As expected, some localised but beefy showers starting to come ashore atm on radar. Slight chance of very localised infrequent thunder with one or two of them, mainly in northern & central parts.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/03/2018 17:56

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
As expected, some localised but beefy showers starting to come ashore atm on radar. Slight chance of very localised infrequent thunder with one or two of them, mainly in northern & central parts.


I still think the word 'thunderstorm', as the BoM had in their forecast for a day like today is extremely misleading, in fact there hasn't been any lightning strikes recorded all day from what I can see. They are showers with the slightest of chances of local thunder, at best. But let's not get into that shall we, lol.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/03/2018 22:13

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Big highs staying south tend to become more common around early to mid autumn.

For today, some modest instability near the coast (mainly in the north) so there's just the slight chance of a hit & miss shower or thundershower being steered ashore late this afternoon or evening.... but moisture looks very shallow so I'd say the majority of places will probably get very little, if anything at all.

Still looking at a few more warm days before windy cooler conditions with some showers kick in mid to late this week with another burst of SE winds.

Is that because high's are attracted to cooler waters down south, or is it because of the Rossby Wave / SAM Value?


Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/03/2018 10:33

Got to say, I'm a bit over the week of rain followed by a month of nothing. It's not really conducive to maintaining grass or crops. Sigh.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/03/2018 10:37

That's Australia for you.
Posted by: Bone Dry

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/03/2018 10:48

17mm last night. Thought we may have gotten one of those forecast Rainbow Unicorns thunderstorms.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/03/2018 10:51

That was interesting, Thought I'd table up my rainfall since we've lived on our property. Looking at the data I hope we get some more rain this month because doesn't look like we'll get much during April and May. (unfortunately the table won't post so I can only post it as separate years).
The data isn't too bad though, we have bad months but we do seem to manage something pretty regularly.

Jimbour rain total to date
2017-559mm
Jan-103.5, Feb-67.5mm, Mar-118.5mm, April-0mm, May-7mm, June-21.5mm, July 33.5mm, Aug-2.5mm, September-1mm, Oct-112mm, Nov-21mm, December-98mm

2016 - 563.5mm
Jan-139mm, Feb-60.5mm, March-61mm, April- 0mm, May-6mm, June-29.5mm, July-33.5mm, Aug-45mm, Sept-123.5, Oct-23mm, Nov-8.5mm, Dec-36mm

2015 - 702.5mm
Jan-185.5mm, Feb-33mm, Mar-96mm, Apr - 116.5mm, May-0mm, Jun-21.5mm, Jul - 0mm, Aug - 46mm, September - 14mm, Oct - 58.5mm, Nov - 82mm, Dec - 65mm

2014 - 418.5mm
Jan-60.5mm, Feb-3.5mm, Mar-135mm, April-13mm, May-3mm, June 1.5mm, July 4mm, August 30mm, Sept-26mm, Oct-11.5mm, Nov-25.5mm, Dec-102mm

Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/03/2018 01:39

Originally Posted By: retired weather man
I have it on good authority that working or not currently, said radar will be off the air again at some point during April ( most likely after the Games ) for a mid life rebuild.

Let's just say, your authority is a reliable one. Same thing for the Sydney and Melbourne radars.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/03/2018 10:10

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 12.2mm..
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/03/2018 17:12

Will be interesting watching that TL in the GOC, abit of a westward trend later on in the forecast not too sure on a mid level ridge to the west and trough through the interior and the CS spanner. Shear will be a complicating factor for any low out to sea.
Amongst all that the coastal convergence coming up and possible thunderstorms next week?
Posted by: Timbuck

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/03/2018 19:16


What's the chances of the remnants of Marcus getting captured buy front and bringing all that moisture back up through the bite next week ??
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/03/2018 09:00

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 61.8mm.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/03/2018 16:27

Looks like we will again end up with less than half the average monthly rainfall here. Only 2 days of rain in March with about 40mm. 12 straight months now with much below average rainfall. It is a dust bowl out here. Above normal temps and below normal rainfall on average for the past year. Nothing ever seems to change here in west Warwick. I am glad I am the exception rather than the rule.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/03/2018 19:51

Im worried that low forecast to travel into the CS from the SPCZ will steal the moist onshore flow and leav us in SE'lys where if the if that low was not there the flow would probably be more NE'ly with a series of troughs inland eastern Aus.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/03/2018 21:31

Originally Posted By: Steve O
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: gberg
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Yeah was looking at that, i'm at a loss as to why the shower activity is increasing when its the same weather pattern as yesterday, yet we had mainly fine weather yesterday?


Bom mentioned in their forecast that a trough was supposed to move west from the coral sea which would enhance showers so that must be the difference Gleno.


Yes I seen that in the QLD forecast however when checking the winds there's no sign of winds clashing from different directions which generally shows where the trough is located


What you should look for is the clockwise curvature of the winds sometimes they are not that well defined with a weak trough but generally if a trough is to your west the winds will either be turning from SW to Nw'ly they arnt usually clashing together in the upper levels but on the surface when you have winds clashing together that is convergence associated with surface trough and onshore winds.



Today's a classic example, a trough off the coast in Northern NSW according to the Maps, winds are going in the same direction and no sign of Convergence. So what does the BOM see that we don't to call it a trough off the coast and mark it on the official maps?
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 24/03/2018 08:44

The heat returns for mid to late next week. This is certainly a summer to remember out here. Back to back hot and humid summers.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/03/2018 05:31

Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
The heat returns for mid to late next week. This is certainly a summer to remember out here. Back to back hot and humid summers.


You guys still need a lot more rain eh? Also I heard there has been some nice sunflower fields blooming out your way?
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/03/2018 09:04

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 0.4mm.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/03/2018 09:06

If that TC near the Coral Sea comes down off our coast by 500ks EX-TC by then that will be game over for any precip for us for a coupe more weeks.
Posted by: SnowyTrainNorth

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/03/2018 14:48



GFS being a bully... again.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/03/2018 15:18

Great another cyclone washing out off the coast giving us SE'lies and showers. Was looking like a really nice warm, sunny and dry Easter long weekend too.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/03/2018 16:18

Acc R and GFS pretty lined up will wait for the EC run but surprisingly that low in the CS seems closer now than earlier on so there might just be something to watch atleast..
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/03/2018 18:32

I've never been a big fan of ACCESS when it comes to tropical systems - the most recent fail example being TC Linda where it was out by more than 1000 km in the end. And it doesn't look like it'll do well with ex-Nora either.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/03/2018 19:37

Still looking like the outside chance of some localised thunder with a few of the beefier showers on Monday/Tuesday.
Tuesday still looks like featuring the more frequent activity as the upper trough approaches with perhaps some short sharp bursts of heavy precip.

Also still looks like overnight temps staying warmer than normal for this time of year.

Most models currently suggest ex-TC Iris drifting down in a general S or SSW direction into the central or southern Coral Sea by midweek, steered by a low to mid level ridge to its east and southeast... then around midweek, re-intensifying somewhat as it stalls there (possibly as a hybrid or subtropical storm as it phases with a developing upper trough)... then steered back north while weakening again (despite re-entering warmer waters & encountering weaker shear) as the upper trough relaxes & some dry air enters the system.

IF that scenario comes off, it doesn't look like there'll be much effect on the southern QLD coast except maybe for some temporary gusty winds along the more exposed parts of the coast close to around midweek and a modest increase in surf.

GFS and ACCESS-G try to develop a second low pressure centre closer to the southern QLD coast by then, causing more extensive shower activity & stronger winds but the others aren't keen on it.

Here's a multi-ensemble track spread using last night's 12z runs colour-coded by intensity where grey = extratropical, light blue = weaker than Cat 1, all other colours are the equivalent of Cat 1 or higher.


Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/03/2018 21:41

I was going to say Ex Iris is going to have an interesting track for future references, won't be as exciting as TC Rewa in the mid 90's though.. Left turn, Right turn a loop-de-loop... and repeat. If it's going to increase showers in a few days time as it gets closer, I'm up for it.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/03/2018 22:20

Yes Gleno, nice sunflowers out this way, especially near Allora. Yup, still looking for a decent drink out here.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 09:05

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 2.6mm.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 14:15

Thundering away here, Hervey Bay getting a good drenching atm.
Posted by: Un_stable

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 15:29

Out of nowhere a small slow moving cell just dropped 45mm on Narangba in the last 30mins.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 16:04

I never do this but I just couldn't resist, lmao:



Of course if that low stays out in the Coral Sea like some models suggest then most of that rain stays well offshore as well.
Posted by: justme

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 16:50

Should have waited for 1 April Mega, but if it does come of it wil not be funny. Dams around here are full from a few weeks ago when we had 100mm in one hour although that was very local. Had thunder today but no rain yet.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 17:02

Bring it on!
Comm Games might get a new water sport happening.
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 17:04

The flooding would be very nasty if that forecast came off. The ground is currently fairly saturated and runoff would be close to 100%.

Models all over the place though and massive uncertainty. EC and Access send ex-Iris up North
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 17:04

Should start a thread haha... even just for some thundershowers.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 17:09

Originally Posted By: Locke
The flooding would be very nasty if that forecast came off. The ground is currently fairly saturated and runoff would be close to 100%.

Models all over the place though and massive uncertainty. EC and Access send ex-Iris up North


Even if it crossed up north we'd still see increased shower activity down here I think, given it looks like being a fairly broad sort of system with most of the rain to its south...classic hybrid really.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 17:39

Latest ACCESS-G crosses it at Cooktown and then into the gulf. EC (so far) it just meanders off the NQ coast and now introduces a second weakish trough off SEQ. What a mess.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 17:42

I have my doubts it heading S then N. Seems unrealistic I think it won't make it to the coast and fizz. With the upper trough surely tgat will create a more NW'ly steering and push anything descent away from us.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 17:43

Considering how atrociously the ACCESS models did with Linda and Nora (and many other tropical systems), I'm always reluctant to put too much weight on them. But you can never tell for sure which system they'll end up nailing.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 17:45

Originally Posted By: Steve O
I have my doubts it heading S then N. Seems unrealistic I think it won't make it to the coast and fizz.


I don't see it heading all the way north then into the gulf personally...seems a bit extreme to me. EC has dropped that scenario this afternoon but who knows it might go back to it in future runs. I think it's likely to weaken and wash out as you said but whether it stays off the coast or ends up crossing somewhere could mean all the difference when it comes to rainfall along the coast.
Posted by: thecatandme

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 18:22

The Fraser Coast is now going to be out of bread and milk in 3, 2, 1....
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 18:40

Originally Posted By: thecatandme
The Fraser Coast is now going to be out of bread and milk in 3, 2, 1....


Don't worry, I'll post tonight's run which will show that rain all gone.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 19:43

EC still shoots it NW but thats 4 days time. Would say she does look to sit out a few hundred ks east of Bundy.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 19:51

Nice place to sit, then drift SW giving this place a good clean & wash. Needs it.
Be interesting Mega, yes please.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 20:04

Well in earlier EC runs from 8 days ago it had Ex-Nora coming down inland aswell... Actually wish I had saved the image as it looks like whats on satalite now. Imagine if there was the combo. Onshore surface low and inland extra tropical low and upper trough. But yea at the moment just hoping for some unstable weather ans the odd showers.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 20:10

Stage 1 - in 2-3 days time ex Iris drifts close enough to SE Qld coast to increase winds and an upper level trough adds enough instability for some shower activity. As Iris is still to the east the moisture stream is decent but not great, so some nice showers, and maybe some strong winds depending on how close the system gets and whether it intensifies interacting with the upper level trough.

Stage 2 - ex Iris then drifts NW until a new upper level trough moves through the state. This time Iris is close to the central or north coast and so a good NE flow is on the SE coast. GFS says an ECl/Hybrid type system sliding down the coast with major flood potential, but thats still at day 7, so wait and see. Seems likely though that there will be a good moisture flow and some sort of instability around so heavy showers or some rain seems a strong possibility to me, and potential heavy rain/floods depending on if/where the system may focus into an ECL/interact with ex-Iris.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 20:14

Havalook outside everyone, huge halo around da moon.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 20:55

Excellent work thanks Mike. The northern region bureau duty forecaster said straight up they have no idea where Iris is heading due to model discrepancy.

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Stage 1 - in 2-3 days time ex Iris drifts close enough to SE Qld coast to increase winds and an upper level trough adds enough instability for some shower activity. As Iris is still to the east the moisture stream is decent but not great, so some nice showers, and maybe some strong winds depending on how close the system gets and whether it intensifies interacting with the upper level trough.

Stage 2 - ex Iris then drifts NW until a new upper level trough moves through the state. This time Iris is close to the central or north coast and so a good NE flow is on the SE coast. GFS says an ECl/Hybrid type system sliding down the coast with major flood potential, but thats still at day 7, so wait and see. Seems likely though that there will be a good moisture flow and some sort of instability around so heavy showers or some rain seems a strong possibility to me, and potential heavy rain/floods depending on if/where the system may focus into an ECL/interact with ex-Iris.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 21:27

I'd pretty much agree with that Snapper.

I just tried to take some photos of tonight's halo but the photos didn't do it justice.

Re ex-Iris, here's an SST map with the GFS forecast path overlaid (a min of around 26.5C being the typically used benchmark for sustaining TC's), a cyclone phase diagrams from GFS (2nd image) and from a consensus of a few of the models (3rd image).
These currently suggest the system might retain a bit of a shallow warm core although it appears close to a hybrid by the time it reaches south:






Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 22:43

I'm a man of my word:

Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/03/2018 23:39

442 Max precip! Send it to Port Douglas, just a light shower for them.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 03:39

Even ext WATL has the 400mm anomaly over Fraser.
Posted by: KevD

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 08:50

GFS at 384, yeah I know...but was interested to see this - sign of changing times with Autumn approaching, warm SSTs and the cold uppers from down south thinking about paying us a visit...chance of this coming off - as low as GFS at 384 ever getting it right...but posting as much as anything as it shows me the seasonal changes starting to kick in...likely to see more charts like this as we head into winter smile

Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 08:56

Just off the topic slightly but I reckon all of this Coral sea activity this year will be great in one respect, that being the Coral reefs getting a chance to replenish.Then just have to sort out the starfish problem.
Posted by: Stephen

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 09:23

Big and slow moving showers and storms off the coast of Gold Coast this morning. Slowly moving towards the coast. Think they will make it?
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 09:30

Originally Posted By: Stephen
Big and slow moving showers and storms off the coast of Gold Coast this morning. Slowly moving towards the coast. Think they will make it?


I hope not lol. Only because i have a 20 min walk to pick my car up front the mechanics at lunch time lol. Otherwise i would say yes
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 09:32

Been warm & misty here all morning.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 10:03

Sat Water Vapour shows remarkable contrast through Qld at present between warm dry air to west and cool wet air to east.
https://weather.us/satellite/australia/satellite-water-vapor-10min/20180326-2240z.html
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 11:37

Many reports have been coming in of loud thunder and brief but heavy rainfall on the northside in the activity that's rapidly developed. Things going as expected so far.

The number of models and ensemble members leaning towards that more likely scenario of ex-Iris heading down, stalling, then tracking NW has continued to increase (although they vary with how weak or strong the system may be by the time it approaches the northern or central QLD coast, if that does end up occurring).
EC, UK and GFS ensemble tracks & intensities below via NOAA:


Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 12:10

Heard a few rumbles of thunder at Stafford about 15 minutes ago, wouldn’t say they were loud though, but probably heard it 3 or 4 times whilst I was outside working.
Posted by: zuldjan

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 12:10

Absolutely torrential at chermside.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 12:19

Originally Posted By: zuldjan
Absolutely torrential at chermside.
Stafford is the same currently also, wind got quite gusty for a moment there aswell
Posted by: OverDrive

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 12:46

Stafford heights here - flooding in two rooms.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 12:55

I have 2 weather stations.. Manly West 14.2mm, Wynnum Nth 30.4mm.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 13:14

Originally Posted By: KevD
GFS at 384, yeah I know...but was interested to see this - sign of changing times with Autumn approaching, warm SSTs and the cold uppers from down south thinking about paying us a visit...chance of this coming off - as low as GFS at 384 ever getting it right...but posting as much as anything as it shows me the seasonal changes starting to kick in...likely to see more charts like this as we head into winter smile


384 hr now showing a big low over Vic. GFS did have an upper system amplifying ex-Iris at about 7 days, but that upper trough has now weakened. Another upper trough near 10 days, but that one coincided with strong ridging at surface. Just have to wait and see if we get the right combination of upper and lower features, and I'd agree the potential is there.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 13:17

2gb / 4bc show mentioned 100mm in one min up near cairns , then they stopped and checked that, and said yes , its correct , 100mm in one min.
what a classic , thats taking it up to new levels of stupidity. wifdy saying its really chuckin it down at arana hills.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 14:11

World record rainfall rates are 38mm in 1 minute, or 126mm in 8 minutes. Definitely lower than 100mm in one minute, but in some sense almost as hard to believe.
Posted by: Un_stable

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 14:13

Hmm do you think he got his hrs and mins mixed up.. Otherwise, where's that ark?
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 14:28

100mm in one minute, thats a humungus amount of water falling down with gravity, I dont even know if that is possible?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 14:35

Was it simply referring to the calculation of rainfall rate by multiplying an "instantaneous" rainfall amount at the time multiplied by however many seconds to extrapolate out to one minute? Many home weather stations do that. It doesn't mean that much rain actually fell in one minute.
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 15:57

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
World record rainfall rates are 38mm in 1 minute, or 126mm in 8 minutes. Definitely lower than 100mm in one minute, but in some sense almost as hard to believe.


I've always wondered about the Nobby record of 203mm in 20 mins. It seems like such an anomaly when you compare the world records to the Australian records. It only missed the 20min world record by 3mm! You would think there would be some historical piece written about the storm, but I can't find anything about it. When you look at the rainfall charts from that area there isn't any record of it there either. It just magically appears on the Australian records list. Maybe Ken or Blair could shed some light on this record?
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 16:32

Certainly plenty sitting off the Goldy, will it come ashore?
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 16:58

Well are we not under a SE flow ?? So the showers should be on there way
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 17:14

Gate releases expected tonight at North Pine Dam
http://www.seqwater.com.au
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 18:11

At last copping a decent hosing.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 18:14

Well it's here now and has been for the last half an hr.
Pretty steady too, but it just formed to our south, not that great blob out to sea comin in
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 19:50

Originally Posted By: retired weather man
I have 2 weather stations.. Manly West 14.2mm, Wynnum Nth 30.4mm.
no idea how much Stafford copped today as I was onsite working, but in the 45 odd minutes it rained for, it two thirds filled the builders wheel barrow with water whilst it sat in the backyard. Nothing in the gauge for Salisbury, which is what the radar showed when I looked at it today as it poured down at work.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/03/2018 22:15

I think Ex Iris is still along way NE and might just be outside of the upper trough and the shear. If said system can keep out of the shear it could deepen and the weak steering winds might just keep us guessing for a few more days yet.. Honestly though I don't think its going to be felt here. It would be nice but the weather here has been pretty tame as of late.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/03/2018 08:41

We got 35mm here yesterday, and quite a bit of lightning/thunder.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/03/2018 09:22

Even better consensus now on ex-Iris's initial southwards movement followed by its stalling, strengthening of its winds on its southern flank as it pushes down into the ridge, then getting steered NW by the low to mid level ridge axis to its southwest and south.
Among the majority of the models to support this is the experimental FV3 (the next successor to the existing GFS).

Where the models still differ is 1) if they bring it onto the northern or central QLD coast, or it stays out to sea and 2) for the ones that do bring it onto the coast up north, how much rainfall it'll cause up there.

This is another good example of why it's often not a good idea to always assume/hope that some tropical system will always come down and make a direct impact on us here in SE QLD/NE NSW. It's often pretty hard for everything to line up to allow them to make it down here.

Here's the latest ensemble tracks/intensities from the EC/UK/CMC ensembles and deterministic versions via NOAA:

Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/03/2018 10:38

The possible heavy rain event early next week, although it involved Iris, the upper level trough was more important in my opinion. Upper level trough is still in current GFS runs, but weaker. There is some hint of troughing extending south from ex-Iris in response, but nothing major in terms of rainfall. If GFS ramps up the upper trough again it could pull the remnants of Iris back towards SEQ, or spin up a new trough/low.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/03/2018 11:52

EC has heavy falls along the Fraser Coast and Capricornia during the weekend associated with a coastal trough linked to Iris which by then is up as far as NQ. Still very skeptical though as that trough could easily shift further north imo.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/03/2018 12:12

Whoops I should have added 'Ex' Iris, just to be clear.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/03/2018 13:04

This would be the driest we've been this time of year heading into our driest period and definitely nothing hinting at any rains to save us. I have some serious concerns about keeping livestock fed in our area over winter.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/03/2018 13:15

With the upper high centering around western Qld, i can't see too much rain happening in our neck of the wood's. No sign of a coastal trough on the forecast maps , and the Bom have Brisbane going for 1-3mm each day over easter.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/03/2018 15:42

It looks ridgy the further south you go, yes. But there is clearly a coastal trough which extends down to about Fraser Island or offshore of the SC, depending on which model you believe. GFS has jumped onboard this afternoon, but keeps it mostly just offshore at this stage. But then there are other models like CMC & ICON which aren't interested at all.
Posted by: KevD

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/03/2018 22:38

Something to watch...at a time when there is very little to watch...the AAO looks like heading into the negative for the first time for a LONG time:



Might do nothing for us with the quidge keeping anything fun at bay...but could also stir up the uppers over the next few weeks and give us something decent, with perhaps even a hint of autumn in the patterns.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/03/2018 00:20

I’m sorry to hear that Lani. Believe it or not, we only had 38mm in January 2018.
61mm in February 2018 and so far, 42mm here in March.
It is so parched out here. I have never seen anything like it.
I hope it is not as bad as you imagine out your way this coming winter.
Cheers,
Michael
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/03/2018 08:56

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 4.4mm.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/03/2018 09:43

I feel sorry for you guys out there with things being so parched as they are.Its hard to believe this is the case whereby only about 100or so Ks to the east we are experiencing constant showery stuff much to the delight of all the ducks mushrooms and mosquitos.I'm not a fan of this kind of weather at all and it looks like. It's locked in for the foreseeable future so it's time for this storm chaser to go back into hibernation and be woken up in September.In the meantime I hop there is some act of God that causes a massive deluge out there in the Southern and Western Downs.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/03/2018 10:44

Good post, Tweedstorm, with some genuine understanding of the situation, which can be typical of this time of year. So different to this time last year.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/03/2018 11:04

Thanks Pete, if only we could just channel one of those lows your way ,ya never know still might be time yet.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/03/2018 11:47

I should confess that The eastern parts of Toowoomba look good because we seem to do a lot better rainwise, but it dries out so quickly as you go west or south. Of course, others who live up here may have differing opinions about that.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/03/2018 19:26

Its funny, a friend asked me if I'd move and while the dry weather can get seriously frustrating, I know that each area has its issues. I love it down Murwillumbah and Kyogle but to be honest the constant wet conditions and bugs would drive me crazy. We looked at it and decide we prefer it for holidays. We dont have the annual fear of bushfires, and with my breed of horses, snow can be an issue so really, this is my ideally suited weather pattern when we manage our average rain. I just pray fir the aferage some years. I can totally understand the wet weather getting you down Tweedstorm. We'll keep praying for an autumn inland low smile
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/03/2018 19:30

Would it be fair to say Easter weekend official MetEye forecast for close to coast (say 50km) in SEQ is looking showery with 50 to 80% chance of any rain?
I am looking for best timing to mow when grass is a bit drier.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/03/2018 19:35

Lani
Yes location has its up and downs. Nowhere is perfect, it is ultimately the best to choose what we are most comfortable with.
I would be happy with more rain or less rain where I am. My main focus at present is best timing to do do what I want and need to do.
That decision is probably equally as hard as where is the ideal place smile ?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/03/2018 19:41

This might help...


Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/03/2018 19:46

Coastal areas usually do best as we get best of both worlds. Onshore flow and or combination of upper trough. Dalby for examole needs a specific setup to produce rain and from what ive seen and this goes for Warwick is that only a handlfule of times to have the right setup.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/03/2018 20:15

Thanks Ken that helps me know outdoors will be a gamble for me over Easter.
Steve O I agree contrast between close to coast and further distance has a big effect in our region. Elevation of land and distance at play.
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/03/2018 21:11

Yep looking like a showery, windy affair for me and the thousands of others camping on the beach this weekend. Ah well, at least the regular showers will keep the salt spray from settling on the cars, tents and gazebos!! grin
Posted by: Foehn Correspondent

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/03/2018 01:07

I've only just noticed that the observations on the BOM radar now included Canungra (Defence) and Greenbank (Defence). I don't know how long these have been there for I've never noticed it until tonight. Might be for the Commonwealth games? Alternatively have they always been there and i have had too much to drink tonight?

Also available on the observations page

Greenbank link http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94419.shtml
Canungra link http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94418.shtml
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/03/2018 09:06

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 1.6mm.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/03/2018 09:31

2mm from light showers/drizzle last 24hrs.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/03/2018 09:32

FC. If you click on the "Recent months for locations in Queensland" when you're on there obs page, there doesn't appear to be any past record for these 2 locations, may indicate that they are new, possibly.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/03/2018 09:35

There have been new AWS’s for Defence being added to various places around the country in recent times including those around Townsville, Singleton, etc.
Posted by: Foehn Correspondent

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/03/2018 10:30

Thanks Ken
Posted by: Stephen

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/03/2018 12:02

It is looking increasingly likely that after a transition towards the coast(either crossing or skimming close to the coast near the central coast), the low will likely move slowly south along the coast while causing heavy rains the whole way down. Not 100% obviously with this system, will keep us guessing all week I reckon.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/03/2018 15:33

Yea fingers crossed im not expecting it to drag back down the coast. Though was just looking at the spread on the 12z EC ensemble and even shows an area around the central QLD coast with some members if Im reading it right there is still a spread of scenarios bringing it back down the coast?
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/03/2018 15:41

Unless something dramatic happens it's all NQ and possibly CQ show from here. Only one model shows southward movement and that is CMC which is about as reliable as praying for rain.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/03/2018 16:15

Miracles do happen, but not holding my breath, as much as I would like it to.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/03/2018 16:46

Don't think I have experienced such a warm and humid southeasterly breeze. Would it be tropical air swinging under the low and on to the coast?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/03/2018 16:53

Funny you say that Snapper, I was pondering exactly the same thing when I was driving back home from the Gold Coast late this morning.

There’s a long easterly fetch of the wind flow over the ocean rather than southeasterly and those winds are also blowing over a large expanse of warmer than normal waters.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/03/2018 17:27

Just haven't had that Autumnal feeling at all yet. Maybe another summer type rain event still on the cards.
Posted by: Aussea

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/03/2018 17:41

I am expecting an eventual visit from the carcass of ex cyclone Iris to the Sunny Coast (yeah fat chance I know), mirroring ex cyclone Debbie's autumn switching arrival - on March 30 last year. Debbie vacuumed all the oppressive lingering humidity out at the time etc (unfortunately transferring destructive flooding rains to locations to the south of us), then bingo - the coolness of autumn kicked in here.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/03/2018 18:34

I find autumn usually doesn't kick in here until either early or mid April.
March to early/mid April does a subtle transition from 'high-summer' to 'low-summer', by that I mean the constant humid to very humid warmth of summer starts to crack a little with the odd moderately humid day/night or milder day/night occurring.
During the early/mid April period, the "flip" happens. Sometimes very suddenly (e.g. after a decent front or weather system clears) or sometimes by attrition. By late April, you find moderately humid days and/or milder days/nights are now ruling with the occasional appearance of low humidity. The conditions are nearly always comfortable for most people.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/03/2018 19:21

Latest CMC run:



And the big falls are on the day of the Com Games opening ceremony. Would be hysterical.

Very unlikely to happen though. CMC has the low making landfall around Mackay then coast hugging SE re-intensifying. EC has the same landfall but then sends the low back out to sea into NE Coral Sea. GFS washes out over NQ and then has separate vortices forming out in the CS.

So looks like we know generally where it's going but not what it will do after. I think CMC's outcome is highly unlikely though.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/03/2018 20:39

Looks ominous to throw a spanner into the C.G. though. Wouldnt that be something historical. Watersports be awesome.
Heard black cockatoos today, havnt heard them since last summer/autumn. Harbinger?
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/03/2018 20:45

Would need a mid/upper trough to be placed to the west sort of like your classic ECL setup for that scenario. Not seeing it yet the CMC scenario would be the least likely as most models were showing mid level and upper level ridging in the area?
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/03/2018 20:51

Yea, doesnt look that promising. Hm.
Still, damn humid, showery drizzle, black cockies, see what happens.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/03/2018 05:54

Originally Posted By: Steve O
Would need a mid/upper trough to be placed to the west sort of like your classic ECL setup for that scenario.


Precisely how I look at it, and it needs to be slow moving to allow for enough time for the low to ride its steering influence south. Otherwise, if it weakens and/or pushes too far east too quickly, it will introduce strong upper level westerlies which will drag it out to sea (which some models are doing).

Interesting there is a trend southward this morning in the modelling though and also re-intensification. CMC, ICON, NAVGEM all somewhat further south as a second much stronger shortwave amplifies through the western interior of QLD and remains slow moving. UKMET also redevelops Iris to 'INTENSE' while moving SE (but further out to sea), EC deepens Iris and moves her towards the Central Coast but second shortwave moves too quickly across QLD thus dragging her back out to sea. GFS still washes her out entirely (huge outlier this morning).

Once again I keep using Iris to name this low but by no means is it a guarantee she will ever regain TC status.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/03/2018 10:49

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
There have been new AWS’s for Defence being added to various places around the country in recent times including those around Townsville, Singleton, etc.


BTW I forgot to mention in my previous post that the rollout of the new AWS's at Canungra and Greenbank which are part of the Defence project covering NSW, QLD, SA and the NT have been in the pipeline for a number of months and aren't specifically for the Commonwealth Games.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/03/2018 14:39

The rainfall/Decile etc map for March has just appeared on the Bureaus' climate section.Just looking at March and first three months of 2018 I wonder how the reality has turned out compared to the expectations.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/03/2018 16:58

Not a bureau basher at all but the forecasts for the last couple of days have been the worst ever considering the high stakes for a tourist centre. Not a drop, blue skies nice breeze!
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/03/2018 17:04

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Not a bureau basher at all but the forecasts for the last couple of days have been the worst ever considering the high stakes for a tourist centre. Not a drop, blue skies nice breeze!


We've had showers here yesterday and earlier today. In fact, when I was down at the Gold Coast yesterday morning, we got rained on every time we went outside but with dry breaks in between.

The showers have been far fewer today though.

This was the radar-derived rainfall in the 24hrs up to 9am today:

Posted by: Memories of Ice

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/03/2018 17:31

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Not a bureau basher at all but the forecasts for the last couple of days have been the worst ever considering the high stakes for a tourist centre. Not a drop, blue skies nice breeze!


I thought the forecasts were underdone, especially yesterday. I mean, when I went for my 90 minute run yesterday morning it drizzled for about half of it and we had to dry our laundered clothes inside under a ceiling fan cause the showers were on and off.
So if you thought they were overdone and I thought they were underdone, the forecasts were perfect

Another thing, and the thing that annoys the hell out me, is people assuming because they didn't get any rain no one else got any rain either OR vice versa. It don't work like that. It reminds me of the time someone complained about the forecast on The Gap storm day because THEY didn't get a storm.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/03/2018 18:00

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Not a bureau basher at all but the forecasts for the last couple of days have been the worst ever considering the high stakes for a tourist centre. Not a drop, blue skies nice breeze!



Below is what I said the other day, I think the weekend has gone as forecasted 3-4 days ago

"With the upper high centering around western Qld, i can't see too much rain happening in our neck of the wood's. No sign of a coastal trough on the forecast maps , and the Bom have Brisbane going for 1-3mm each day over easter."
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/03/2018 22:32

Yep! Lets leave it at that, I know it goes both ways. Friends said it poured down in Maroochydore.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/03/2018 22:44

Seems until this low does its thing up north still keeps the hope alive that there might be some precip for some. With the current forecasts things could still be open for change does'nt look dormant in the sense that there is activity somewhere even though
It may not be locally. I'm amazed just how far Ex Iris has travelled.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/03/2018 22:51

Originally Posted By: Steve O
Seems until this low does its thing up north still keeps the hope alive that there might be some precip for some. With the current forecasts things could still be open for change does'nt look dormant in the sense that there is activity somewhere even though
It may not be locally. I'm amazed just how far Ex Iris has travelled.


Believe it or not ext GFS has Iris doing another full loop of CS, intensifying dramatically and then grazing mid northern coast of NSW as a pretty strong ECL. End of run it's still alive heading south into the Tasman.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/03/2018 22:56

You never know, it might finally be the 1 out of 10 setups that ext-GFS actually manages to get right laugh

I think I remember it was bringing a 2nd associated low to pivot around over us and bring us heavy rain and winds here by around this time.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/03/2018 23:01

Anything interesting on the scripts Ken?
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/03/2018 23:04

Keeping everybody guessing, Iris is.
Wouldnt be at all surprised if she graces us a visit.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/03/2018 23:25

If that next shortwave trough (black arrow) darts NW into NT then we have next to 0 chance of receiving anything even up here, imo. Also note the deep ridge building under it (orange arrow) which would clear everything north. Ridging of that strength is pretty typical of April I would think, if it was Jan-Feb I'd be more confident about such an event:

[/img]
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/04/2018 17:12

Looks like temps will continue to average 3-4 degrees C above normal out here. No rain in site. Very comfortable conditions for sure, especially in the evening.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/04/2018 23:10

still too much ridging down here imo. GFS / UK have it being ripped apart by strong shear just off the Central Coast. If this was earlier in the season when the ridging wasn't so strong then things might have been a little different.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/04/2018 08:11

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 2.6mm.
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/04/2018 08:55

19.5mm for March, 120mm ytd for me.
Thats half of what Toowoomba airport has received and probably 30% of what the eastern side of Toowoomba has received. Amazing how quickly the rainfall drops off as you move away from the range
Posted by: T.rex

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/04/2018 12:07

You are not far wrong there Adam. Figures for Mt Lofty have been 70.5 mm for March, and 269.3 mm for the year to date. So, your rain for March was 28% of my total, and the ytd amount is about 45% of our figure. However, they are relatively isolated readings. Take this instance, our rainfall for one day, Feb 26th this year of 79mm, was more than the total rainfall during the 156 day period 27 April-30th September last year, which only totaled 72.4 mm. It is interesting to develop 'statistics' for specific periods, but they are not worth much in a scientific context.

Having said that, I have no doubt at all that you are quite a lot drier on your side of town, than we are on the eastern edge.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/04/2018 15:47

Originally Posted By: Adam Ant
19.5mm for March, 120mm ytd for me.
Thats half of what Toowoomba airport has received and probably 30% of what the eastern side of Toowoomba has received. Amazing how quickly the rainfall drops off as you move away from the range



I'm actually surprised how much the ranges affect our weather, given the fact there not that high when you compare it with other parts of the world with mountains with far greater mountain height.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/04/2018 18:58

Superb Autumn weather last few days here just west of Brisbane.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/04/2018 19:12

The contrast between the eastern parts of Toowoomba such as Picnic Point and the western parts such as near the airport is often quite stark. I often go up there (only a 90min drive from my place) on cool showery days and encounter low cloud shrouding the higher parts of the escarpment in the eastern parts of town for hours and cool drizzly conditions but as soon as I get to the lower western outskirts and beyond, even the landscape looks drier.

Anyway some images.
1st image - warmer than normal over our area as well as large parts of the continent last month.

2nd image - Rainfall coverage this Easter from radar-derived raingauge-calibrated data (I was one of the lucky or unlucky ones who got drenched on the Gold Coast on Friday)




Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/04/2018 02:01

Hope somewhere down the track we get a good autumn type rain event. Some areas of the Southern land right up to the Gr.Div range really needs it.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/04/2018 05:49

Southern Land should read southern inland of QLD(and probably northern inland of NSW) too.
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/04/2018 08:26

Originally Posted By: T.rex
You are not far wrong there Adam. Figures for Mt Lofty have been 70.5 mm for March, and 269.3 mm for the year to date. So, your rain for March was 28% of my total, and the ytd amount is about 45% of our figure. However, they are relatively isolated readings. Take this instance, our rainfall for one day, Feb 26th this year of 79mm, was more than the total rainfall during the 156 day period 27 April-30th September last year, which only totaled 72.4 mm. It is interesting to develop 'statistics' for specific periods, but they are not worth much in a scientific context.

Having said that, I have no doubt at all that you are quite a lot drier on your side of town, than we are on the eastern edge.


There was a rainfall station at Westbrook for a long time, it averaged 663mm for the year, the old Toowoomba site averaged 952. Just shows that what I am experiencing now is probably the norm unfortunately! I used to live on the east side of town,I'm missing the foggy mornings and wetter climate!
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/04/2018 08:49

Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: Adam Ant
19.5mm for March, 120mm ytd for me.
Thats half of what Toowoomba airport has received and probably 30% of what the eastern side of Toowoomba has received. Amazing how quickly the rainfall drops off as you move away from the range



I'm actually surprised how much the ranges affect our weather, given the fact there not that high when you compare it with other parts of the world with mountains with far greater mountain height.


It is surprising. Although, when you see some of the cloud formations that come off the range (especially the Bunya mountains) you can tell that there is some interaction going on
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/04/2018 08:57

Kind of hoping some of that cloud streaming off Iris will find our rain gauge.
Posted by: redbucket

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/04/2018 09:12

Same here ME. We had 42.4mm for March, roughly half average.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/04/2018 15:24

Exactly, I have had half the average here too at 42mm. I am not expecting much from the cyclone down this way, but GFS is toying with a bit of a change here the last couple of days in April. Could this pattern of above normal temps and below normal rainfall finally be on its way out?
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/04/2018 17:32

Showers brought 1.5mm today, better than nothing.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/04/2018 20:57

Drove to Toowoomba at lunch time today and just out of Dalby it got really squally. I couldnt tell her if I was driving into rain or dust. Turned out to be 99% dust. Really glad I wasn't in the horse truck. Be interesting to know what the wind speed was. Lasted to around Oakey.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/04/2018 22:06

After a fine day (the precip had been a bit inland of here during the day), a thunderstorm then occurred here this evening. Some heavy rain during the storm largely contributing to the 24.8mm that has fallen tonight.

This afternoon, I just happened to come across a storm producing occasional thunder in-between Kempsey and Macksville. Photos were taken from Donnellyville (about 19-20kms NW of here), looking over the Warrell Creek area -


Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/04/2018 07:15

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 3.0mm. Enough to get the annual total past 500mm.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/04/2018 10:03

Nice pics Seabreeze
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/04/2018 15:53

3mm today, thats double yesterday. On a roll?
Nice pics Seabreeze.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/04/2018 17:55

Wynnum Nth - 4.8mm since 0900, all at lunchtime.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/04/2018 17:59

Thanks Gleno & Elf.

29.6mm in the 24hrs to 9am this morning from last night's storm and a couple of overnight showers. A few brief showers during today have brought 3.4mm since 9am.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/04/2018 19:42

It was notably cooler, wetter, and more windy today compared to Easter weekend.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/04/2018 19:53

I like those pics Seabreeze.
Especially seeing rain and no rain in different areas of the landscape. It is an excellent example of reality. At various points in time some get rain and others (sometimes not far away) miss out on the rain. Weather systems at their best🐸
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/04/2018 07:33

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 7.6mm.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/04/2018 09:03

West Warwick rain = 1mm over the last 28 days. Nothing in site...
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/04/2018 09:27

Ken (and others) have posted maps of rainfall and temp 'signatures' extending out a month or more. They show broad brush liklihoods over continental scales.
I'm interested in the period mid-April to early May as I'm digging a pool...
Can anyone post such a forecast or a link? Thanks in advance.
Posted by: Timbuck

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/04/2018 12:27

Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
West Warwick rain = 1mm over the last 28 days. Nothing in site...


Maybe it's time for a change 😎👍 you should sell up and move to the coast , take up surfing or fishing or just walk on the beach. 🏄🎣☕️🍻🍺 I'm sure you will be a very very happy person and leave all the negative of dry days behind and you will be able to enjoy this wonderful world we live in soaking up the constant SE winds and sun , rain , sun , rain , mown your lawn every three days and watch your concrete pagola area grow moss buy the minute and have the council knock on your door for a reported water leak 😂When it just water oozing out of my block ( happens every wet season)

In all seriousness it's Just light hearted fun 👍 Its quite amazing how a short distance in this country can be totally chalk and cheese. Like those pics just posted really good illustration one side of a valley gets 25mm and the other get 5mm.

My best mates 1500acres is just SE of you near yabbra state forest is 6Ft deep all grown for feed just about to start round bail it now. all rain and storm's consistently goes across his property. His property backs on to the SF on the eastern side. It a real corridor for rain and storms that follow that ridge line also showers form from the Moist on shore flows like the last number of weeks . I'm guessing you watch it all the time...stuff forming over girraween and sundown , bald rock etc and travel just passed your back fence.
How much land you have there ? Are you running cattle or crops ??

Cheers

Tim
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/04/2018 12:50

Hey Tim, lol, the thought has passed my mind to move to a more rain/storm prone area, but we are committed here for while longer. Plus, like you mentioned, I do not have to drive far to see some action.
We only have about an acre, so no livestock, just 10 chickens, 2 fluffy cats and a dog, who do just fine in the dry weather.
I just feel for the people out here who do rely on the rain for a living.
You know, the area hit hardest that I know of is between Warwick and Leslie Dam. This one little area has experienced the worst of the dryness. Then you travel a relatively short distance to Thanes Creek/Leyburn area, it is a different story. Then of course there’s Allora, who has copped a few good storms this past summer. Very hit and miss over the past 12 months out here.
I know our time will come again.
Thanks for your response.
Cheers,
Michael
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/04/2018 15:31

Been some moderately gusty winds today in SEQ (some just over 50km/h gusts at Gold Coast seaway) - not much concern generally for me at least.
But with Comm Games now on I would imagine unfavourable weather such as winds for some track and field events, rain for many outdoor events, temp and humidity would be of interest to competitors and organizers involved in the games.
I am not that much into the games generally (at least not yet) but would be interested to know what others think?.. ideal weather for different sports ? or likelihood of some interruptions for some events ?
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/04/2018 16:05

Doesn't look like much out of the ordinary. I've said it from the day they printed the wrong date on the opening ceremony tickets that these games will not go to plan. Will see what plays out.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/04/2018 16:23

If ACCESS does better than how it handles tropical systems it is showing conditions to warm up again next week.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/04/2018 16:27

That very watered-down spell of warmer than normal conditions we're expecting here early next week is part of a broader significant heat event that looks likely to spread across much of the southern half of Australia next week.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/04/2018 18:10

Further to my previous post, below is a GFS temp anomaly map averaged across the next 7 days.

Thankfully SE QLD/NE NSW won't be that much hotter than normal early next week (but southern parts of SA as well as inland VIC and NSW look like seeing widespread temps many degrees above the April average and perhaps record-challenging in some places) before a change waters down the heat:


Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/04/2018 20:44

Originally Posted By: Flowin
Been some moderately gusty winds today in SEQ (some just over 50km/h gusts at Gold Coast seaway) - not much concern generally for me at least.
But with Comm Games now on I would imagine unfavourable weather such as winds for some track and field events, rain for many outdoor events, temp and humidity would be of interest to competitors and organizers involved in the games.
I am not that much into the games generally (at least not yet) but would be interested to know what others think?.. ideal weather for different sports ? or likelihood of some interruptions for some events ?



I am at a loss as to why there holding the games this time of year when there is always a risk of shower and rain activity not to mention the affects of cyclonic activity. Should of been held in the drier months (august/September) Sydney Olympics were held in September and they had stunning weather during the games.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/04/2018 07:32

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 3.8mm.
Posted by: redbucket

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/04/2018 07:55

Heading on a family road trip from Monday, down through central NSW to South Australia. Looks to be warm, might not need to break out the jumpers until we get closer to Vic!
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/04/2018 10:52

Just wondering if these continual overcast/ partly cloudy days are happening down in SE Qld or if it's just up here in coastal Central Qld ?
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/04/2018 13:19

Yes mate although it's nice and sunny day here today the weather here has been groundhog stuff for about the past 6weeks partly cloudy with a shower or two and relentless S.E.winds all care of those Coral sea lows.Very boring
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/04/2018 17:35

Is there any hope of rain for the south west over the next few months or has all this offshore and up north cyclonic activity sucked any available moisture away?
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/04/2018 17:51

If it means anything I've heard the common koal around not sure for your neck of the woods maybe we will see what the Ne'lys bring later next week with the change to follow.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/04/2018 18:27

Havagood & safe trip redbucket, hope the weather is kind to you, if you are driving through Broken Hill, well worthwhile checking out Silverton & looking out west towards the end of the world & Mad Max memorabillia. Have fun.
Getting real sick of these SE'lies, markedly cooler, great fun boating/tubing on Somerset today.
Anyone know when the next decent drop gona happen? Like a green drought atm, plenty dripping lately keeping grass green but thats all.
Just read your post SteveO, yeah, hope something pops up with that.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/04/2018 06:53

Certainly noticing the change of seasons out here, especially in the mornings. I wonder when the uppers will cooperate to bring our first real cold front our way? Seems to be all bottled up down south.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/04/2018 08:18

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 1.2mm.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/04/2018 16:26

Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
Certainly noticing the change of seasons out here, especially in the mornings. I wonder when the uppers will cooperate to bring our first real cold front our way? Seems to be all bottled up down south.


yes normally you start to get to the odd Sw wind change this time of year but has not eventuated as yet
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/04/2018 17:02

The South westerlies have been modelled and dropped a few times in the past week so they can't be too far away.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/04/2018 17:52

Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
Certainly noticing the change of seasons out here

Change here too. Cooler evenings. More noticeably shorter day.
Still damp but that is not everywhere in our region. I hope areas that are dry at present get some rain when it is next looking likely.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/04/2018 18:32

Doesn't look like much change to true autumnal temps here in coastal SE QLD anytime soon within the next week or two at least (except for a few cooler nights/early mornings early in the week) with max and min temps remaining a bit above average for much of the time.
Posted by: Lewis

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/04/2018 23:01

It might just be me, but since Easter, the humidity that was hanging around has eased off just a bit. The days are a lot more tolerable, the rain is still hanging around but it definitely isn't as muggy.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/04/2018 08:10

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 1.0mm.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/04/2018 17:52

Looks like the high breaks down a bit to allow a front into the region by the end of the weekend? At least it's a break in the pattern, right? Or am I making more out of this than needs be? Maybe wishful thinking....
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/04/2018 09:40

It's amazing how you can have 2-3 weeks or showers and cloud, but you rarely get 2-3 weeks of clear skies. Yesterday was probably our first cloudless day in months, and looks like the cloud will return sometime today.
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/04/2018 12:02

Yep beautiful sunny weather here for the second day in a row, also had our first sub 10C temp for the year this morning as well. July to September can often bring 2-3 weeks of clear skies out here, but yeah definatley a different story on the coast.

April so far has been pretty typical for my neck of the woods with plenty of cloud and SE'lys but bugger all rain. Could do with a another drop as its starting to dry out a little. Maybe a bit of wet stuff from that trough this weekend??
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/04/2018 13:11

Amazing the next high currently SE of Tasmania will be as far north as off the coast of SEQ in just two days time. I've noticed that when there is an elongated area of low pressure troughing near NZ, this tends to happen instead of highs that should be building eastwards through the southern Tasman Sea. There also seems to be a longwave trough which appears to be stuck just over or just SE of NZ which is probably aiding that pattern for the next week or so. None of which probably means much at this time of year, but just making the observation.

These are the main LW troughs I can see atm:

Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/04/2018 13:15

Any winter predictions yet?

2015 - significantly colder than average with snowfalls
2016 - warmer than average
2017 - significantly warmer than average
2018 - ?
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/04/2018 17:21

Installed a new Davis Pro 2 station and re located anemometer mast to a higher position. Old Pro 2 to be used for spare parts.
Posted by: KevD

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/04/2018 17:42

Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Installed a new Davis Pro 2 station and re located anemometer mast to a higher position. Old Pro 2 to be used for spare parts.

That is spooky - just did exactly the same thing, installed replacement VP2 yesterday with the old one (from 2005) being kept for spares. The old one started losing signal intermittently. After 12 years outside I forgave it! Great kit the VP2.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/04/2018 08:22

This is my third Pro 2 station. No.1 got drowned during Yasi in Townsville with the 173km/hr winds blowing rain into the internal workings.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/04/2018 09:40

As mentioned here previously, Mt Stapylton's still due to be taken offline from mid next week for about 1.5 weeks due to a midlife upgrade.

Same goes for the main Sydney and Melbourne radars albeit during slightly different periods.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/04/2018 09:59

Hi all . Going to start saving for a Davis weather station .My Digitech station is about half way through its life going on past stations usually i get about 5 or 6 years before the bearing goes on the wind speed . Decided to get a better one this time around . Guess i should pull the old one apart and see if the bearing is replaceable for the hell of it lol.My first station died with no signal and second was the bearing which i lubed and then went for a further 6 months before i replaced it with a new station . I also replace the rechargeable battery's each year as the first station the battery acid leaked when the battery's were old. Better to replace them than have acid eating the metal and inside on the components which may have been the cause of it failing to transmit in the end .
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/04/2018 17:05

Bought my recent Pro 2 from Davis in Melbourne. Got here in 4 days. $1311 - inc. del.
Posted by: Timbuck

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/04/2018 19:01

[quote=Ken Kato]As mentioned here previously, Mt Stapylton's still due to be taken offline from mid next week for about 1.5 weeks due to a midlife upgrade.

I wonder how much one of those cost ??? I turn 39 in 11 days and I wouldn't mind taking 1.5weeks off and get one aswell grin
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/04/2018 19:02

ouch ,I thought they were around $750 lol.A few years ago .Think i will stick to my cheap ones lol.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/04/2018 21:27

Originally Posted By: ozone doug
ouch ,I thought they were around $750 lol.A few years ago .Think i will stick to my cheap ones lol.

How is your storm glass project going?
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/04/2018 08:03

Hi Flowin .I have forgotten about it lol. Been busy with heap of other stuff. Just saw that national geographic have one for sale.looks nice.
https://shop.australiangeographic.com.au/13cm-storm-glass-teardrop.html
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/04/2018 10:51

Getting so over this crappy cloudy weather. Solar panels been hardly working last few weeks. Rain or pee off.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/04/2018 14:13

Queensland winter weather: BoM to release long range forecast

THE weather bureau has predicted a cooler start to winter for Queensland with colder-than-average nights likely for the next three months.

Central Queensland residents are likely to feel the brunt of the cold weather with overnight minimum temperatures expected to drop below their 10C average between May and July.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlook, to be released on Thursday, said the rest of the country would be in for a warmer winter.

“Night-time temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for southern parts of Australia while most of Queensland is likely to have cooler than average nights,” it read.

Rainfall is likely to remain average across the state after Queensland had the wettest March since 2012 last month.

The end of the school holidays will come with a mostly sunny weekend across the southeast with warm temperatures up around 30C.

The Gold Coast might see a shower or two on Saturday but the weather bureau has predicted perfect conditions for the closing ceremony on Sunday.


How are we supposed to get cooler than average nights up here but down south gets warmer? Does that mean they are expecting SAM to push less cold fronts up but wouldn't that mean we would also be warmer too? What about day time temps also - are they expected to be warmer, average or cooler?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/04/2018 14:26

The outlook itself including the max temps is here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/temperature/maximum/median/seasonal/0

There can be any number of reasons that cause that pattern including a predisposition of lows occurring at latitudes of SE Australia which lead to a milder E or SE flow over southern parts and a colder (than normal) flow to their north.

Worth noting that the May to July seasonal outlook is for conditions averaged across those 3months - not necessarily indicative of conditions for every one of those 3 months.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/04/2018 15:40

That statement says QLD had its wettest March since 2012. I am having difficulties understanding that.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/04/2018 16:10

QLD is a big place
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/04/2018 17:52

I am hanging out for winter ,Fire up the wood fire lol.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/04/2018 19:42

My wood is quite damp. Proximity to coast for me seems to be not helpful for firewood drying in recent months.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/04/2018 19:43

It's been feeling autumnal for about a week now with the comfortable mild nights and the less humid days. Summer 2017/18 has bid us farewell.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/04/2018 07:42

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 0.4mm.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/04/2018 13:50

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Queensland winter weather: BoM to release long range forecast

THE weather bureau has predicted a cooler start to winter for Queensland with colder-than-average nights likely for the next three months.
Central Queensland residents are likely to feel the brunt of the cold weather with overnight minimum temperatures expected to drop below their 10C average between May and July.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlook, to be released on Thursday, said the rest of the country would be in for a warmer winter.
“Night-time temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for southern parts of Australia while most of Queensland is likely to have cooler than average nights,” it read.
Rainfall is likely to remain average across the state after Queensland had the wettest March since 2012 last month.
The end of the school holidays will come with a mostly sunny weekend across the southeast with warm temperatures up around 30C.
The Gold Coast might see a shower or two on Saturday but the weather bureau has predicted perfect conditions for the closing ceremony on Sunday.


How are we supposed to get cooler than average nights up here but down south gets warmer? Does that mean they are expecting SAM to push less cold fronts up but wouldn't that mean we would also be warmer too? What about day time temps also - are they expected to be warmer, average or cooler?


Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The outlook itself including the max temps is here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/temperature/maximum/median/seasonal/0

There can be any number of reasons that cause that pattern including a predisposition of lows occurring at latitudes of SE Australia which lead to a milder E or SE flow over southern parts and a colder (than normal) flow to their north.

Worth noting that the May to July seasonal outlook is for conditions averaged across those 3months - not necessarily indicative of conditions for every one of those 3 months.


I had a closer look at what was causing the warm north/cool south pattern in the latest June/May-June-July outlook by looking at some additional parameters from the Bureau's POAMA model (which generates the Bureau's seasonal outlooks).

A couple of the things I noticed was that the model has been going for high probabilities of lower than normal MSLP values in a broad swath stretching across northern and parts of eastern Australia during that period with the resultant higher than normal rainfall and cloudier than normal conditions in that belt, which in turn might be helping to cause the cooler than normal max temps. Although you'd expect min temps to often be higher than normal under cloudier/wetter conditions, it could be that it's causing the daytime temps to be so low that even if the min temps drop only a few degrees, they're still lower than normal. Just speculation though.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/04/2018 14:02

That sounds yuck. Those freezing rainy overcast winter days are disgusting. Thanks for the info Ken. The forecast seemed a bit odd but that makes a lot more sense now.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/04/2018 14:09

Looks like some storms could develop around the Downs and northern tablelands later on Saturday, one or two possibly strong due to the good shear.
Outside chance of some of the activity affecting a few places closer to the coast due to the reasonable westerly steering aloft but far from certain (no southerly change, instability is a bit modest, etc). ACCESS-R suggests the chance of a mix of sun & patchy cloud cover in the morning but doesn't stand out as being too excessive to eliminate storm chances for inland parts.
Later in the week features a period of modest instability with an onshore flow as well which might produce some thunder in spots - see 1st graphic below.

Some remarkable temperature scenarios currently being suggested for next month and winter (but also big disagreements) by a number of the models.

The 2nd and 3rd graphics are generated by an ensemble of 7 models calibrated by comparing past forecasts with what actually happened to improve its forecasts. Amazing extent of unseasonal warmth being suggested by a lot of these particular models but this is in complete contrast with the Bureau's POAMA model (which generates the bi-monthly seasonal outlooks that most people are familiar with) that's currently going for a broad swath of cooler than normal conditions across the north and parts of the east.

Some important caveats though - the maps below don't distinguish between min and max temps.
Also, the probabilities in our region of SE QLD/NE NSW are a bit weaker than other areas such as far north QLD.

And most importantly of all, it won't necessarily be like that all the time - there may well be the occasional colder period mixed in which bucks that overall trend:






Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/04/2018 14:16

Wow that's so different to BOM's forecast. If that came off it would make the last two warm winters look pretty ordinary in comparison.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/04/2018 14:33

Yeah, but see the important caveats above. I'm hoping the heat won't eventuate for my sanity's sake.

Also, the EC ensemble is currently suggesting slightly better than borderline chances of enhanced rainfall for some parts of eastern Australia later this month.

In the shorter term, some places in our region could see April heat records start to be challenged by late this weekend with max temps rising into the low 30's for many places away from the coastline (5C or more above average for many), possibly close to the mid 30's in a few locations and well within the hottest 10% of past April max temps. Brisbane city itself will depend on whether the westerly flow can keep out the seabreeze enough.
NSW, VIC and SA have all had locations where April heat records have already tumbled across a number of days and there's a special climate statement that was issued today about it as well: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs65.pdf
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/04/2018 15:54

will make a mockery of some of the long term geezers predicting record cold winter.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/04/2018 17:03

Interestingly though cooler unstable weather sometimes follows big heat events?
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/04/2018 17:25

Originally Posted By: BIG T
will make a mockery of some of the long term geezers predicting record cold winter.


Mr Taylor ??
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/04/2018 17:29

Haha yea I read that article mini ice age..
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/04/2018 17:37

Some dire news out here it seems .we have a feed grass die off that is spreading ,No one knows what it is or how to stop it. the farmers get rain and it should be growing but going yellow and dieing off. It was in central QLD but has reach Roma too.Old link from 2016 when it was first picked up.
https://www.daf.qld.gov.au/our-organisat...r-investigation
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/04/2018 19:29

Re the May and Winter maps I posted earlier, disregard them for now - the very high probabilities looked a bit odd to me so I decided to cross-check with a separate website that displays the same forecasts.... there's a fairly big discrepancy so I just emailed the webmaster to find out what's going on.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/04/2018 20:10

Originally Posted By: ozone doug
Some dire news out here it seems .we have a feed grass die off that is spreading ,No one knows what it is or how to stop it. the farmers get rain and it should be growing but going yellow and dieing off. It was in central QLD but has reach Roma too.Old link from 2016 when it was first picked up.
https://www.daf.qld.gov.au/our-organisat...r-investigation

Could that be a form of "rust" infestation?
I first saw rust in sugarcane up north a few decades ago. Since I learnt about it I have observed it affecting other plants beyond grasses.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/04/2018 08:02

Clouds moving in from NW getting darker, lovely cool autumn morning.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/04/2018 09:12

Anyone north west of Brizzy getting wet? And will this effect this arvo's chances??
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/04/2018 10:21

Very light rain last half or so hour. Humid.
No heat building.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/04/2018 13:58

Same here, a few light spots since about midday, on and off.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/04/2018 14:08

Going by himawari water vapour & visual, a few drops thats all folks.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/04/2018 14:21

A little, light morning rain brought 0.6mm here. At the moment, sunny skies overhead and to the west, with some mid level cloud to the east at sea.
Very slight to slight chance of a shower/storm here this afternoon, but in all likelihood it should remain dry.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/04/2018 17:59

1.5mm this morning and another light shower at the moment.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/04/2018 18:32

Fast-moving band of storms have developed along the troughline this afternoon/evening. They're about to start crossing the Great Divide, so will soon see if that ends up being a bit too traumatic for them. Models weren't interested in evening precip reaching the coast, but as always Mother Nature will get the final say.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/04/2018 21:46

A thunderstorm hit here around 8:45pm tonight. It was a high-based storm bringing strong winds (approx peak 60-65km/h) and occasional lightning/thunder. Being high-based and fast-moving, it didn't bring much rain, just 1.8mm. I could hear the approaching strong winds around two minutes or so before it came. A couple of lightning pics before the wind hit:





The line of storms survived the crossing of the Divide in some areas of the northern MNC but didn't in other parts, so it was hit and miss tonight.
Posted by: Foehn Correspondent

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/04/2018 21:51

Thanks Seabreeze - always enjoy your reports. Don't think anything will make it this far tonight. May be a bit of early morning action here tomorrow.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/04/2018 22:14

1mm in a light shower earlier this arvo. Looks to be a nice line out near Texas way moving in this general direction. Can see quite a bit of lightning in the distance from that direction. Hope it makes it.
Posted by: Ben

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/04/2018 22:21

Can see pretty much constant lightning even from the Tweed area on the far horizon. I'm pretty sure I may have also seen some lightning sprites. I think when theres a fair bit of dry, clear air around you can see lightning much further away than you usually can. I was surprised given its 150km away.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/04/2018 23:49

Nice little cell motorin along the boarder. Can it make it to the Goldy? Time will tell.
Love those abrupt awakenings in the wee hours of flash, BANG!
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/04/2018 00:20

Thankyou Foehn. smile

The storms this evening also brought gusts of up to 70km/h at Grafton (10:35pm) and 65km/h at Coffs (10:29pm).
Posted by: Lewis

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/04/2018 00:23

Looks like the storms are losing intensity and starting to wash out. The GC might get a little bit, but can't see anything getting to Brisbane. Not that I'm complaining, thunder when I'm sleeping certainly wouldn't be appreciated.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/04/2018 08:11

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 0.8mm.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/04/2018 14:36

Amazingly hot outside today, 35.2C.
Sweating like a pig cutting up trees.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/04/2018 14:43

Nature's Fury and for anyone else interested, I heard back from the people at the US Climate Prediction Centre who manage the system which displays those outlook maps and it was indeed a problem with their system which caused it to display such high probabilities. This has now been fixed and below are the correct maps for next month and the upcoming winter.

In other news, many locations in our region have reached well into the hottest 10% of past April max temps.
Max temps still look like dropping down closer to more seasonal values from midweek but still remaining a bit above average on most days after that for a good week or two at least, if not longer.
Still some modest instability appearing on the cards for later this week but no real exciting setups to write home about.
And the slightly greater than even odds for some enhanced rainfall over some parts of eastern Australia later this month according to the EC ensemble but again, the probabilities don't look that high:




Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/04/2018 18:23

Hot April day today. I spent 6 hours of it on a terracotta tile roof. The NNW winds helped keep the situation bearable, but it was cooking around 2pm.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/04/2018 19:35

2mm total from yesterday’s light rain. At least we won’t break the record for the driest April on record. Heat record however remains to be seen...
Such stark contrasts between hemispheres. As mentioned, looks like that prediction of the coldest winter in recent memory out this way might go up in smoke. Things better change and change fast if this prediction has a chance.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/04/2018 19:53

Who predicted a cold winter, that would be cool, kill off the grasshoppers and mice anyway? I have noticed the last several years its getting colder later (june) and staying cold later into october.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/04/2018 02:26

Yes it would be nice Lani. David Taylor predicted this. Not sure where he got his info from. I think he came to this conclusion from the brutal winter in most of the northern hemisphere along with lack of sunspot activity. I think this country plays by its own rules however, hot hot and more hot. Oh ya, and dry too. At least in my neck of the woods anyway.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/04/2018 07:44

Hi all ,Nice cool morning out here ,Got down to 8.6 degs . Looking forward to winter lol.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/04/2018 07:52

Wynnum Nth min this morning 14.2C, coldest for the year.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/04/2018 12:08

I remember waking up to a big pot of porridge or pea and ham soup bubbling away on the stove in winter at my Grandma's place here in Kingaroy. It's warm now but that could change very quickly.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/04/2018 17:18

Replacement Davis WS.




Vane - 18 feet AGL ( 12 feet short of proper specs ).

Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/04/2018 17:41

Looks good RWM.I really like that one .
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/04/2018 19:17

Fantastic day here, cool morning of 8C followed by a warm sunny day reaching 31C and not a cloud in the sky. Very September like. Back to easterlies from Wednesday onwards by the looks.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/04/2018 08:32

Good morning all ,Got down to 11.2 out here. Nice cool nights are better for sleeping which we all need.Have a great day everyone .
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/04/2018 14:20

7.7C here this morning. Nice cool, below average mornings over the past couple of days. Easterlies have returned, so likely not as cool over the next week.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/04/2018 16:31

Precipitation and storms in the coming days forecast but not much excitement on here. Is BOM pullin one?? Anyone with the tech stuff and probability.
Thx in advance, always appreciated.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/04/2018 16:35

Originally Posted By: DDstorm
Precipitation and storms in the coming days forecast but not much excitement on here. Is BOM pullin one?? Anyone with the tech stuff and probability.
Thx in advance, always appreciated.

It's just one of those "showers in a cooler onshore flow with some embedded thunder" type setups, not a classic "hot day with strong shear and severe storms" one.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/04/2018 17:46

I'll take anything on offer!
Cheers Ken,
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/04/2018 18:00

"Yes it would be nice Lani. David Taylor predicted this. Not sure where he got his info from. I think he came to this conclusion from the brutal winter in most of the northern hemisphere along with lack of sunspot activity. I think this country plays by its own rules however, hot hot and more hot. Oh ya, and dry too. At least in my neck of the woods anyway.


Edited by Warwick Eye2Sky (Yesterday at 02:31) "

It sure does have its own rules. Mid-April and I had the air con on today! Does anyone know if the dry weather encourages processionary caterpillars? They are horrific this year along with the little grasshoppers. Sigh.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/04/2018 18:15

Thx Ken
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/04/2018 19:04

Thanks ken
It is interesting
Talk of a very cold winter. However temps are up. And other forcasts almost neutral
Still warm so will be interested in the comming months
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/04/2018 19:10

Still a fair amount of flying insects around at night driving me nuts. Until we get a bucketload of rain they wont go away IMO.
STILL WAITING!
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/04/2018 19:14

Originally Posted By: tsunami
Thanks ken
It is interesting
Talk of a very cold winter. However temps are up. And other forcasts almost neutral
Still warm so will be interested in the comming months


All this talk about Australia getting the coldest winter on record and entering a mini ice age all originated from a certain person on the Brisbane Weather Facebook page which media like The Daily Mail and other tabloids picked up, circulated and went viral e.g. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5466309/The-map-Australian-see.html
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/04/2018 19:19

Hi all,

Got out fishing this morning off Caloundra., an absolutely spectacular morning with a light south westerly. The ocean is nice and warm and full of fish and sharks, certainly caught my share. I could really feel the warmth of the sea on my face,

A fair bit of beach erosion on the top of Bribie making the inevitable golden beach breakthrough a few meters closer...

I keep feeling that a solid rain event must be due, perhaps if not soon we might at least see some big ECL’s once the proper south westerly pulses arrive.
Hoping anyway, but in the meantime a few more days like today please.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 07:05

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: DDstorm
Precipitation and storms in the coming days forecast but not much excitement on here. Is BOM pullin one?? Anyone with the tech stuff and probability.
Thx in advance, always appreciated.

It's just one of those "showers in a cooler onshore flow with some embedded thunder" type setups, not a classic "hot day with strong shear and severe storms" one.


Well what do ya know...there are some lumpy showers / storms on Moreton Island this morning.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 07:34

Steady drizzle here last couple hrs, Byron nearly 50mm's since early this morning. Noice
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 07:58

Wynnum Nth thunderstorm 0745. - 2.8mm
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 08:04

Reasonably pretty clouds for SE showers. Definitely some instability going on.
Posted by: Ben

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 08:19

Nice surprise storm in the Tweed last night. Got woken up by some close bolts at 4am, before it absolutely hammered down. Sitting on 62mm since 9am. Will re-fill up the swamps again I'm sure and give us another lot of mozzies I'm guessing.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 08:23

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: tsunami
Thanks ken
It is interesting
Talk of a very cold winter. However temps are up. And other forcasts almost neutral
Still warm so will be interested in the comming months


All this talk about Australia getting the coldest winter on record and entering a mini ice age all originated from a certain person on the Brisbane Weather Facebook page which media like The Daily Mail and other tabloids picked up, circulated and went viral e.g. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5466309/The-map-Australian-see.html



I'm still at a loss as to why the media listen to these Amateur FB weather pages. Why cant they approach the BOM for opinions? They might get a better accurate answer.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 08:31

There's no sign of a upper trough until at least the weekend, and there's no sign of convergence, so buggered if I know how these storms and cloud formed this morning.
Posted by: divho

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 08:47

Hello Gleno71. There is a tongue of coldish air over Brisbane extending south east towards Lord Howe. -13°C at the 500 Hectopascal level (approx 19000 feet)above Bris.

There is a reflection in streamlines at that level over Bis as well.

Convergence can be difficult to see on streamlines at the surface. Speed convergence etc must also be considered ?

Also the 'landbreeze' in the mornings adds to convergence against a southeast stream onto the coast helps.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 08:48

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 3.0mm.
Posted by: Stephen

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 09:24

Absolutely torrential shower here for last 15 minutes. Flash flooding in Buderim. Heaviest rain I’ve seen for a long time, even though will be short lived.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 09:40

There is a species of plant near Kingaroy that flowers six weeks before the the first frost.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 09:58

Looks like armageddon heading in from the SE here in Caloundra!
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 10:23

Abandoned work at Capalaba today after an hour and a half due to the rain (mainly light showers, but occasional heavier falls also....no good for doing roofing), get home to Salisbury and barely been a sprinkle on the ground here.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 10:32

Wynnum Nth rain since 0900 - 17.0mm. Have now passed YTD average total to end of April. One thunder clap 0950, as well as the TS earlier on.
Posted by: wetdreams

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 10:36

6mm so far this morning.
Constant rumbling thunder for the last little while and that big blob of rain over Caloundra is on it's way out here.

Glad I got all of the camping gear from our extended Easter holiday aired out and packed away yesterday afternoon. Could be a bit soggy around here for the next few days by the looks of it.
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 10:43

Things are quiet on this forum. I'm surprised we don't have a thread started for the showers and rain expected in coming days.

Based on this morning results we might get some nice little totals by the weekend.
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 11:09

Some very heavy rainfall around the Sunshine coast now. If this keeps up, perhaps a flash flood warning might be warranted unless the radar is over reading the rainfall rates.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 11:18

Lightning just fried our modem and energex trucks just moved in to the area. Bugger any recommendations on the best modem to buy as a replacement with NBN coming in July?
Posted by: Stephen

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 11:19

The radar isn’t over reading, definitely some torrential showers. It is a nice change.
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 11:31

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Lightning just fried our modem and energex trucks just moved in to the area. Bugger any recommendations on the best modem to buy as a replacement with NBN coming in July?


I've given up on home broadband and now use my mobile data. Just waiting for Elon Musk to get his satellite internet up and running in a few years time.

Forget the NBN

Meanwhile rainfall rates to the South of Caloundra are in excess of 50mm/h
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 11:38

Wynnum Nth 24.0mm since 0900.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 11:58

Originally Posted By: gleno71
There's no sign of a upper trough until at least the weekend, and there's no sign of convergence, so buggered if I know how these storms and cloud formed this morning.


As divho said, pool of cold air @ around 500mb, see it here @ 7am this morning:

http://weatherwatch.stormcast.com.au/sto...500.bne.0...png
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 12:18

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Lightning just fried our modem and energex trucks just moved in to the area. Bugger any recommendations on the best modem to buy as a replacement with NBN coming in July?

If you're with Telstra I'd ask for the Gateway Max 2, it works on regular broadband as well as NBN. Ours hasn't missed a beat since we got it.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 13:16

Originally Posted By: divho
Hello Gleno71. There is a tongue of coldish air over Brisbane extending south east towards Lord Howe. -13°C at the 500 Hectopascal level (approx 19000 feet)above Bris.

There is a reflection in streamlines at that level over Bis as well.

Convergence can be difficult to see on streamlines at the surface. Speed convergence etc must also be considered ?

Also the 'landbreeze' in the mornings adds to convergence against a southeast stream onto the coast helps.




Thanks for the reply and info, although I don't find -13 "cold" at that level. Normally cold pools are over -20 and above when looking at these charts over the years. Its cleared up a lot compared to this morning, so whatever cold air there was, must of diminished by now.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 13:32

The Mt Stap. radar outage has started by the looks. Not with Telstra and have three teenagers so really need a good router/modem. The other one was ok but range was limited. Could see friends network 200m down the road but not ours when upstairs.
PS was a very cold breeze here this morning.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 13:36

Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: divho
Hello Gleno71. There is a tongue of coldish air over Brisbane extending south east towards Lord Howe. -13°C at the 500 Hectopascal level (approx 19000 feet)above Bris.

There is a reflection in streamlines at that level over Bis as well.

Convergence can be difficult to see on streamlines at the surface. Speed convergence etc must also be considered ?

Also the 'landbreeze' in the mornings adds to convergence against a southeast stream onto the coast helps.




Thanks for the reply and info, although I don't find -13 "cold" at that level. Normally cold pools are over -20 and above when looking at these charts over the years. Its cleared up a lot compared to this morning, so whatever cold air there was, must of diminished by now.


Still cold enough to produce a deep slab of instability aloft:

Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 13:41

Au revoir Mt Stapy. See you again in 10 days time.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 13:41

Yep, it's not so the absolute temp of the midlevels itself that matters - it's the temp difference between the midlevels and lower levels that matters. Midlevel temps can also be colder or warmer than normal for a given time of year. You can clearly see that lobe of colder midlevel air extending over SE QLD with the resultant increase in instability.
Adding moisture to the rising air will increase instability even more, given all other things equal.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 14:23

Various models have been wanting to deepen a trough off the east coast later next week with a few of them trying to eventually form a big ECL near the NSW coast in the trough.
But that wouldn't bring us much weather unless anything formed closer to the coast than expected or to our north.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 15:08

Wynnum Nth rain since 0900 25.4mm. Event total 30.0mm.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 17:54

Fair bit of agreement on a low coming past next week, as Ken said would have to be north or west to give us anything but a lovely cool weekend.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/04/2018 18:23

A big fat juicy ECL, wouldnt that be nice.
Maybe thats what these bloody bugs been waiting for!
Posted by: Rod H

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 06:10

There is a HUGE rainfall prob difference between the 7 day forecast on Weather Zone for Coomera and the forecast on the BOM site. WX Zone for Tuesday 24th shows 40-80mm yet the BOM site states 1-8 mm.
Is this an error on one of the sites and if so which one?
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 07:46

AccessG looks great for a drop over SEQ next week, GFS not so. Any low hugging the coast near Fraser will be interesting to watch if it happens.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 08:09

I forgot to mention, one other way we can get reasonable rainfall if any deepening troughs or lows don’t form very close to, or to our north is if the upper trough helping to induce those systems is situated to our west... in which case, it can cause rainfall from us (although it normally wouldn’t be as focussed/heavy as much as an ECL).

As for WZ’s rainfall forecast for Coomera, I think it’s simply what they or their Opticast system is going for.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 08:18

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 33.2mm.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 08:19

For interest only (I do not believe it) - Canadian NWP forecast rain for next ten days is wild!
https://weather.us/model-charts/can/1529-e-277-s/accumulated-precipitation/20180428-1200z.html
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 08:40

Originally Posted By: Rod H
There is a HUGE rainfall prob difference between the 7 day forecast on Weather Zone for Coomera and the forecast on the BOM site. WX Zone for Tuesday 24th shows 40-80mm yet the BOM site states 1-8 mm.
Is this an error on one of the sites and if so which one?

I just had a closer look at the setup and it appears that the 40-80mm from Weatherzone is because of some (but not all) of the scenarios that are bringing in the ECL ashore and the accompanying heavier rainfall over SE QLD.
Posted by: grayarea

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 11:05

Well had 28mm in my rain gauge over previous 24 hours till 7am.
Now living in Buderim. Easier to see the rain coming towards us than Doonan.
With forecast onshore showers over the next week could well imagine getting totals in excess of 100mm.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 14:22

We have Thunder at Bell and according to the radar,maybe a shower at Jimbour. Oh if only that Canadian one came off! May save the upcoming season!
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 16:00

You can see where the CMC (Canadian) model's scenario (red) lies in relation to the ones from other models in the accumulating precip graph for Brisbane (dark blue = EC, green = GFS, purple = ACCESS-G, etc etc):


Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 16:10

Big variation there Ken. can understand why some get excited if they don't look at the big picture. Thx for the comparison.
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 16:34

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
You can see where the CMC (Canadian) model's scenario (red) lies in relation to the ones from other models in the accumulating precip graph for Brisbane (dark blue = EC, green = GFS, purple = ACCESS-G, etc etc):




May this be the one time in one hundred that CMC is actually right!
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 17:01

Fingers crossed. We need a few inches if possible.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 17:54

Well CMC seems to agree with GFS and EC that the uppper level low will develop almost directly on top of SEQ. GFS and EC put surface response out to sea, but CMC inland. I think upper level trough well west is much better for rain here. My money would be on the surface trough/low being out to sea unless the upper level trough moves further west. Looks far enough north for some decent enhanced shower activity.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 18:18

4.5mm this afternoon at Jimbour.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 18:25

Access has done a CMC!
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 19:02

It's mostly offshore of SEQ. Looks more and more like a NSW event to me. Can see one of those Coffs / Bellingen flood events coming off provided the trough stays close enough to the coast down there.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 19:09

Funny how it all starts up here but ends up down there.
Cant we just have one that bucks that trend. Please!
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 19:48

Yeah, still a lot in nnsw though and some wet fish offshore...
Waiting and seeing!
Stapylton is offline so it’ll be sure to go crazy
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 20:00

Setups like this never end up delivering for SEQ. I think in the last ten years I've seen projected coastal troughs and ECLs in autumn/winter forecast for SEQ or NENSW only one hasn't ended up further south. SOI has been the highest it's been in 2 years and it never gets this high and sustained without some corresponding major rain event. I think we'll see big falls offshore or into NSW.
Posted by: PlumbBob

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 21:09

Interesting eek Where is anyone's guess at this stage, and could be safe in saying "Pockets of Precip event's happening here & there, both nensw & seqld over next week" cool
Looking on - hope for a few sparks & rain shafts thrown in aswell grin
Mother nature playing games - again, hahaha wink
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 22:14

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Setups like this never end up delivering for SEQ. I think in the last ten years I've seen projected coastal troughs and ECLs in autumn/winter forecast for SEQ or NENSW only one hasn't ended up further south. SOI has been the highest it's been in 2 years and it never gets this high and sustained without some corresponding major rain event. I think we'll see big falls offshore or into NSW.

I agree 100%. Northern NSW is always a winner with ECL's in recent history.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 22:20

About time we started getting our share.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 22:21

And then Sydney cops a flogging as well.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 22:35

Access G has a crazy scenario. Develops a weak low early next week pushes onto the coast. Then a couple days later it develops a Hybrid system in the central coral sea moves it SW and crossing around Brisbane a few days later.

Regardless what happens looks like some pretty hefty showers/embedded storms should occur with the amplifying upper trough/low over the weekend and early next week. I guess the further NW this upper low decides to develops/moves will depends how we will go with any significant rainfall in SE QLD in the long term of any surface low/trough that may eventually affect us.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 23:13

Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Access G has a crazy scenario. Develops a weak low early next week pushes onto the coast. Then a couple days later it develops a Hybrid system in the central coral sea moves it SW and crossing around Brisbane a few days later.

Regardless what happens looks like some pretty hefty showers/embedded storms should occur with the amplifying upper trough/low over the weekend and early next week. I guess the further NW this upper low decides to develops/moves will depends how we will go with any significant rainfall in SE QLD in the long term of any surface low/trough that may eventually affect us.


Wow that would be the ultimate autumn event for SE QLD. Frustrating though to see these model predictions and know there is only a 1/100 chance of it actually happening.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 23:18

Yeah look out Sydney. Perhaps some action for us too...

Good to have something a bit different to onshore showers to look at...
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/04/2018 23:56

0.8mm in the 24hrs to 9am this morning, and 11.0mm in the previous 24hr to 9am period from onshore showers.

There were a few storms about the eastern side of the ranges this afternoon / earlier this evening.
A little bit of weak storm activity is currently just poking its head into coastal parts of the Hastings Valley now near Laurieton.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/04/2018 06:49

8 day WATL is all over it!
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/04/2018 07:27

Mainly coastal and bugger all out our way atm. Hope it changes but I doubt it.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/04/2018 09:27

What is this witchery?



No thanks!
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/04/2018 09:56

Looks more likely to be Northern NSW to me. As a general rule these extended forecasts always seem to have a Northerly bias at long range.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/04/2018 10:09

I guess it all depends on the strength of the high and the depth of the trough to the south of the low?
Looks like someone will get smashed if the high tilts it to the coast.
Plenty of surplus energy out there...
Posted by: grayarea

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/04/2018 10:19

Another 13mm overnight.
41mm so far for the last couple of days.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/04/2018 10:55

I started a thread, based on a fair bit of model interest-particularly ACCESS G.
Posted by: wetdreams

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/04/2018 12:21

Mmmmm, rumble, rumble, rumble, getting closer now....

We'll see how much more rain we get this afternoon to go on top of the 12mm that fell just after midnight last night.
Posted by: Stace84

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/04/2018 14:08

Hi all, need some info, just been advised I'm racing the RC in 2 day's time with almost zero time to prepare the car. Anyone able to advise me on what to expect weather wise over tomorrow/Sunday around Toowoomba-ish way? I'm a little rusty as I haven't had to look up data for a while. Need to know whether it would be worth burning the candle at both ends to be ready to run or not.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/04/2018 17:26

Hope the weather turned out ok for you Stace84.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/04/2018 17:43

Some instability over our region tomorrow (Thursday) with the approaching upper trough & cooler midlevels but with less than ideal moisture, a southerly flow, and fairly weak shear. Profiles do look somewhat better the further south you go though e.g. NE NSW but still with a southerly flow.
Not exactly an overly exciting setup but some people might get lucky.

Looks like the islands & some of the more exposed parts of the coastal fringe will start getting breezy from Friday through the weekend as the southerlies are reinforced, and both daytime & night-time temps getting cooler from the weekend through next week.
No major rain events in sight for at least a couple of weeks, if not longer.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/04/2018 09:25

Looks like a nice cool, breezy period from Sat. through most of next week on the heels or SE winds. At least average for this time of year or perhaps a degree below average. Looks like April will produce 5mm or less of rain here in West Warwick. Another bone dry month. As Ken stated, more dryness to come.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/04/2018 14:57

Amazingly warm today, hit 35C atm with 21%RH.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/04/2018 15:32

And then SSE winds returning from tomorrow, and unfortunately remaining that way (instead of becoming more onshore) as another low pressure complex stalls near NZ. ZzzzzzZ
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/04/2018 23:58

A storm travelled quickly along the coastal fringe between about Coffs and Evans Head tonight.
Have heard a little distant thunder here tonight from offshore storm activity.
An area of storms has slowly been moving up the coast this evening and currently activity is occurring from around Port Macquarie and southwards. I can also see the lightning flashes from that activity here too.
Posted by: StormQueen

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/04/2018 07:49

Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
A storm travelled quickly along the coastal fringe between about Coffs and Evans Head tonight.
Have heard a little distant thunder here tonight from offshore storm activity.
An area of storms has slowly been moving up the coast this evening and currently activity is occurring from around Port Macquarie and southwards. I can also see the lightning flashes from that activity here too.


We got that storm, SB. Currently camping with my family and friends at Black Rocks. Roared through around 10pmish. Beautiful lighting before that off the coast and from the south.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/04/2018 13:55

For anyone not aware yet, Mt Stapylton is now back online after the refurbishment was completed.
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/04/2018 14:58

Good news Ken,lets hope it behaves itself from now on.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/04/2018 15:05

Yaaaaa
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/04/2018 16:24

Me thinks we should have a BBQ at Stapylton one day smile
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/04/2018 16:53

Do you think they'll let us onsite??
Interesting taking a look at both radars and the difference in detail and now that's it up and runnin, there'll be no weather to look at,:(
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/04/2018 17:25

I think those days are over for visits . I booked a morning with Moree Back in 2010 was good .Had a few hrs with an observer and watched a balloon release and a good look around and answered a lot of questions lol..
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/04/2018 21:53

Storms in the Port Macquarie / Hastings area last night brought as much as 46mm of rain down there. The storm activity curved out to sea between here and Port, as predicted by the models. It did get close enough that distant thunder was heard in the early hours of this morning though. 2.2mm in the 24hrs to 9am from some light rain early this morning.
A couple of fast-moving onshore showers today have brought 1.4mm since 9am.

Originally Posted By: StormQueen
We got that storm, SB. Currently camping with my family and friends at Black Rocks. Roared through around 10pmish. Beautiful lighting before that off the coast and from the south.
Cheers for the field report from your campsite at Black Rocks, StormQueen. Quite windy at Evans Head weather station today I see, probably not much of a beach day.
Posted by: EddyG

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/04/2018 22:15

Originally Posted By: Seabreeze

An area of storms has slowly been moving up the coast this evening and currently activity is occurring from around Port Macquarie and southwards. I can also see the lightning flashes from that activity here too.


This is what you would have seen. Taken from Hawks Nest, this particular cell was between Seals Rocks and Forster. That little light near the strike is Seals Lighthouse.
IMG_7618 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr

IMG_7589 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/04/2018 23:15

Originally Posted By: EddyG
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze

An area of storms has slowly been moving up the coast this evening and currently activity is occurring from around Port Macquarie and southwards. I can also see the lightning flashes from that activity here too.


This is what you would have seen. Taken from Hawks Nest, this particular cell was between Seals Rocks and Forster. That little light near the strike is Seals Lighthouse.
IMG_7618 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr

IMG_7589 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr
Awesome pics Eddy. I was seeing the lightning flashes from the stuff around the Laurieton / Crowdy Head area at the time. I have a hill about a kilometre or so to the south that limits how far south I can see. But had I been out on the floodplain or perhaps elevated up at the lighthouse, I might have been able to see very distant flashes of the stuff down Forster way earlier that night.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/04/2018 08:06

Nice Photos Eddy they are Awesome .
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/04/2018 08:23

Absolutely awesome. Love clear air lightning, amazing.
Thx for the share.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/04/2018 09:21

Fabulous pics Eddy, great stuff!
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/04/2018 10:49

So wish it would rain. People are still saying we're headed for a cold winter, is this because its dry do you think?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/04/2018 11:09

Originally Posted By: Lani
So wish it would rain. People are still saying we're headed for a cold winter, is this because its dry do you think?

Not sure if you saw the posts a few weeks ago re this but if not, here’s an example:


Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
All this talk about Australia getting the coldest winter on record and entering a mini ice age all originated from a certain person on the Brisbane Weather Facebook page which media like The Daily Mail and other tabloids picked up, circulated and went viral e.g. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5466309/The-map-Australian-see.html


There are countless occasions when I’d be very cautious about confusing “talk” with what’s actually been put out by official agencies and professionals in their field.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/04/2018 14:19

A nice shower here at the moment and more comin up cross the boarder, just reachin far enough inland now.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/04/2018 14:35

Thanks Ken, yes I saw some of the posts, a lot of the old farmers and locals are talking about too so I wasnt sure where they might have heard it from or whether they're basing it on the dry weather as they dont really do fb etc. You know the old, local knowledge . . . everyone believes them lol.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/04/2018 15:53

Well done Eddy. Some Cracking photos there
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/04/2018 23:20

The onshore showers continued overnight and today. 5.0mm in the 24hrs to 9am, and 3.4mm since then.
The flow is S/SSW'ly, which has so far basically kept 10mm+ falls right on the very coastal fringe or at places favourably exposed to these type of flows (e.g. Ballina/Byron area).
There was a noticeable difference in how wet the roads were between the eastern and western side of town earlier this evening.
Posted by: EddyG

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/04/2018 12:25

Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Awesome pics Eddy. I was seeing the lightning flashes from the stuff around the Laurieton / Crowdy Head area at the time. I have a hill about a kilometre or so to the south that limits how far south I can see. But had I been out on the floodplain or perhaps elevated up at the lighthouse, I might have been able to see very distant flashes of the stuff down Forster way earlier that night.


Yeah its amazing how far you can actually see lightning, I have a pic somewhere of some dogleg bolts from a cell just north of Crowdy Head a few years ago, it was estimated to be about 130-140km away.

And thanks everyone for the kind comments too!!
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/04/2018 19:21

Awesome pics EddyG. I admire the skill and moments in weather photographers bring to this forum
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/04/2018 19:22

Notably cooler morning today. Not unexpected though, Ken suggested that a few days ago.
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/04/2018 20:21

1.8mm total for April here. 3rd April in a row where I have recorded less than 5mm of rain. Typical late autumn snorefest, naff all rain, endless easterlies, not much variation in temperature or anything really. At least the nights are starting to cool down, sub 10C over the last few mornings here with an Se'ly is a sure sign that the cooler season is almost upon us. Bring on an ecl or nice big cold front or something half interesting!!
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/04/2018 20:26

I'd love for that scenario to come true Lani. But we'd have to see a big change to the current pressure patterns for that to happen.

I have been enjoying the much cooler nights of late though. Here's some of the coolest min temps from around the southeast from today yesterday and today respectively (these were up to around 7am on both mornings but I don't think any of them would've dropped much lower than these figures after that):


Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/05/2018 07:27

Agreed Ken, I would have thought it would be pretty cold already if its expected to be a cold one. Put a coat on for the first time yesterday morning lol.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/05/2018 10:50

courier mail now running with this taylor muppet's grim predictions, its gona snow in places that it never has before. Sweet ! hope so , my street would make an excellent green run.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/05/2018 12:13

Honestly reckon its going to be warmer than average winter with the odd exception as for prediction of record cold blokes oviously having apull.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/05/2018 13:38

Wynnum Nth 13.0C and Manly West 12.6C this morning.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/05/2018 15:38

Originally Posted By: LightningGus
1.8mm total for April here. 3rd April in a row where I have recorded less than 5mm of rain. Typical late autumn snorefest, naff all rain, endless easterlies, not much variation in temperature or anything really. At least the nights are starting to cool down, sub 10C over the last few mornings here with an Se'ly is a sure sign that the cooler season is almost upon us. Bring on an ecl or nice big cold front or something half interesting!!


We needs westerlies and the good old north west cloud band
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/05/2018 21:52

4mm total for the month of April here. Temps far above average too. Yes, I also see an above normal winter here in reference to temps. I really hope I am wrong.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/05/2018 07:03

Maybe above normal temps will bode well for winter rain Warwick? We can hope. So many people already destocking. I saw a pic of Manilla I think it was in NSW, 125mm for last 18months and only 25mm or something for the year. Poor buggers.
Posted by: Stephen

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/05/2018 09:11

Haha anyone see GFS update? Would be nice poke
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/05/2018 09:14

You talking about the instability and shear it's going for for later next week? Or the big blob of intense precip?
Posted by: Stephen

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/05/2018 09:24

Precipitation. I mean it is just a fast change in comparison to its last run. Obviously if it thinks there will be an embedded low somewhere of Fraser then that is great, just bit of a fast turn around for GFS from earlier runs
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/05/2018 11:08

At least it's not extended GFS poke
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/05/2018 11:31

Slow moving upper low is the culprit...probably gone in a few runs...although other models are hinting at increased instability around the same period but nowhere near to the same extent (much flatter trough rather than a full blown upper low).
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/05/2018 11:44

Those pesky upper lows. It was a slow moving upper low that contributed significantly to the 2011 floods.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/05/2018 13:36

Sorry correction on my post, it was not Manilla NSW: It was a property at Ivanhoe, Western NSW. They've only had 7.5mm for the year and 125mm last 18 months. It looks like a desert there.
Posted by: KevD

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/05/2018 14:19

Originally Posted By: Mega
Slow moving upper low is the culprit...probably gone in a few runs...although other models are hinting at increased instability around the same period but nowhere near to the same extent (much flatter trough rather than a full blown upper low).

Latest EC control out in la la land time also have some fun happening:



You know it's been a slow 6 months when we get excited about this stuff cry
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/05/2018 16:13

Cant we just drag that purply bit onshore a tad? Please!!
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/05/2018 19:57

There were 11 consecutive days of rainfall recorded here from April 20th to 30th (inclusive).
Late Friday night's change shouldn't bring any rain, so it looks like fine weather until some point next week.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/05/2018 20:14

Originally Posted By: KevD

You know it's been a slow 6 months when we get excited about this stuff cry

The map colour of 15 day rain total and compare to say 3-7 day rain total can change and moderate excitement. Questioning the models shows the individual EC model ensemble members in the forecast are very different. Many ensemble members showing rain along coast somewhere Gladstone to mid NSW. Anybody's guess, models are just only estimates.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/05/2018 20:41

Wow Lani, now that is a drought! Makes me feel quite lucky actually. I now you have been doing quite hard too up there NW of me. Let us hope for a warm wet winter. Seems like the jet stream is not in our favour right now as the lows come up just west of Tasmania then head south again. Looks like that ridge is holding strong in eastern Australia.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/05/2018 14:29

AccessG & GFS interested in some precip wednesday next week onwards. WATL showing some colour around then as well.
Be nice to break this boring fine crappy weather. Any thoughts?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/05/2018 14:58

Looks like a solid ridge right through the Tasman feeding a long fetch moist easterly onto the coast, with a moderate upper level trough. Might be mostly coastal. Will depend on whether any low or troughing spoils the party out to sea.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/05/2018 15:04

Cheers Mike, Access G in particular has a very nice feature over SEQ late in a weeks time atm. See how it comes & goes I suppose.
Probably more like going, gone.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/05/2018 17:05

Well now, even BOM is now keen on a decent drink Tue & Wed. Gotta see it to believe it but there is always hope.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/05/2018 17:35

If you just go by the upper level patterns, you'd have to think that there'll be at least some enhanced rainfall for us early next week ahead of the first upper trough (and with the moist onshore flow). Sometimes, rainfall amounts from these can exceed initial forecasts.

Later in the week looks a bit more complicated where it'll depend on how any offshore surface features play out and determine whether we'll get rainfall-limiting southerlies if any lows or troughs stay too far to our east or south.... or a more moist onshore flow if they come very close or come ashore to our north.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/05/2018 17:49

Thread time...
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/05/2018 22:09

It is hard to be excited about this kind of setup. Usually ends in northern NSW getting a drenching and we get frustrated. If the models had the rain forecast for Bundaberg we would be a chance. Sorry for the negativity,but when was the last time an ECL gave SEQ a decent drink?
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/05/2018 22:47

Model disagreement, southward trending of rainfall and the disappointment of the last 'event'. I wouldn't even be bothered creating a new thread for this.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/05/2018 22:59

Doesn’t this forum go to port Macquarie?
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/05/2018 23:16

3years and 2 days ago I believe. 👍
People died between Caboolture and Landsborough and we had our worst flood in at least 115 years here in the Upper Mooloolah River.
But yes, it’s usually south of the border ranges...


Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
It is hard to be excited about this kind of setup. Usually ends in northern NSW getting a drenching and we get frustrated. If the models had the rain forecast for Bundaberg we would be a chance. Sorry for the negativity,but when was the last time an ECL gave SEQ a decent drink?
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/05/2018 05:40

Even though the latest EC doesn't look that good in terms of rainfall locally around coastal SE QLD as it did in the last few runs. It probably shows how dynamic the upper atmosphere can be by putting the upper level cold pool and low over the NSW tablelands kinda looks like a decent snow event for them if that particular scenario comes off. GFS being GFS of old and likes to push upper level systems across with moisture streaming in with various disturbances added to the mix with showers and rain for every day after Sunday over the next 2 week period.

My prediction is showers from Monday to Wednesday with a general clearance after that and everything contracting into NSW well at least south of Gold Coast or offshore. With falls of around 50-100 near the SE coast tapering off inland as always.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/05/2018 06:45

Bureau spokesman really talking it up on the radio this morning. Happy to eat my words. And yes I can understand why Port Macquarie wants to be part of SEQ thread. What is it ten or eleven in a row!
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/05/2018 07:49

Our local Kookaburra pair are usually not bad in forecasting rain events. This morning they were joined by a second pair and gave the district an hour or so of song. So there must be quite a rain event on the way.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/05/2018 07:51

The kookaburras here usually only come out in droves during the cooler part of the year which it has been.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/05/2018 08:22

Usually black cockies fly around here summer/autumn, some been flying around last couple days first time this year.
No ants around the house though, gassed them all a few months ago & they havnt been back. Still plenty of them in the gardens.
Lots of bugs around at night time still,
Sooo, will it rain? Damn sure hope so!
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/05/2018 10:17

Lol, I know this doesn’t mean anything, but the latest run here has a tiny bullseye over Warwick.....
http://stormcast.com.au/raincast.html?ops=gfs:2018050318:0:192:bne:nul#sc

On a more official note, looks like afternoon temps could be quite cool here by mid next week. Overnight temps remain well above normal.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/05/2018 10:22

This two week forecast looks more promising. A little too promising for our area...
http://www.farmonlineweather.com.au/models/rainfallchart.jsp?lt=wzstate&lc=qld&mh=168
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/05/2018 12:46

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The kookaburras here usually only come out in droves during the cooler part of the year which it has been.


Not is this area and also Manly West. All year round the dawn chorus, but on some mornings - extra, usually 2 to 3 days ahead of a change in the weather.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/05/2018 15:49

Alright looking cloud band on satalite. Might be something later tonight early morning.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/05/2018 17:51

Yay ,I can smell rain and a light sprinkle .Not much in it.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/05/2018 20:15

Is the white mist on stapy radar actually rain hitting the ground. Never see that before. Is the radar more powerful now? (Sensitive)
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/05/2018 20:54

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Is the white mist on stapy radar actually rain hitting the ground. Never see that before. Is the radar more powerful now? (Sensitive)


Looks like radar interference to me apart from the small echoes along the border which is real.
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/05/2018 22:47

Geez its mild tonight compared to the last week or so, still 19C at 10.30pm, got me kicking the doona and blankets off the bed.
As for next week I'd be happy with 10mm, has been that long since the last rains anything will do!! If the ecl models are progging to bomb off the NSW coast late next week eventuates then we should be in for some dry SSW'lys with sunny days and chilly nights which will be a nice change.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/05/2018 07:38

Wow at the latest GFS for NSW late next week. Very strong upper level low whipping up a surface low. Could give us some cooler and possibly strong SW or W winds for a bit.

Still looking good for upper trough enhanced showers earlier in the week.

There is a bit of a long wave trough going through, with the big system going through the SE corner the start of it, followed by regular upper troughs some of which will give us the showery weather next week, and then possibly finishing off with the big system in NSW end of the week.

I speculate the long wave trough is increasing the ridging near NZ so that early in the week we have a good high and good easterly feed. The system just gone through SE Australia weakens as it enters the Tasman sea and a big high follows. But by the end of the week its pushing further east and encouraging Tasman Sea troughing again.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/05/2018 08:21

Yes LightningGus, our first real cool SW push of the season. I would not be surprised to see our first frost of the season next weekend. Will finally feel like autumn. Locals say the first Warwick frost occurs around ANZAC Day, so a bit late this season.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/05/2018 08:30

Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Is the white mist on stapy radar actually rain hitting the ground. Never see that before. Is the radar more powerful now? (Sensitive)


Looks like radar interference to me apart from the small echoes along the border which is real.


Technical name AP or Anomalous Propagation, or Measles. When there is a low level inversion ( or more than one ) part of the radar beam is bent towards the ground, the distance depending on the height and thickness of the inversion. Thus the radar picks up the ground. But with sensors tuned to try and eliminate such occurrences but still allow genuine rain echoes to be received back into the radar, a delicate balancing act results. So sometimes bits of the ground echoes " break through " the sensor settings, hence the term AP or measles in BoMspeak.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/05/2018 17:42

Might have a high of around 15 next Friday. Can’t wait to see how low the temps will be over the weekend. I guess it depends on cloud cover and dew points. As long as that low hangs around to our south and southeast, we will have a nice push of W-SW winds delivering the chilly goods.
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/05/2018 17:57

Well bugger me actually heard a few rumbles from some darkish clouds to the NW over the last hour here. Something I haven't heard for a while and may not hear again for some time.

+1 W Eye2sky, will be lovely to feel that winter chill after another long, hot summer. Apart from summer rain and storms, a bright sunny day with westerlies followed by a cold frosty night rugged up by the fireplace is my favorite kind of weather smile
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/05/2018 18:55

For those interested. I've started a thread for the next few days.

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1463171#Post1463171
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/05/2018 22:44

A number of models have still been keen on bombing that huge low off the southern NSW coast later in the week with the big blast of colder W to SW'lies behind the cold front that sweeps through here (and snowfalls on the higher mountains up to the central or northern tablelands).

Time will tell if this scenario will continue to hold or not. Going by a fairly unscientific guesswork approach, if I had to bet money on it I'd say some kind of significant low is likely in the Tasman although it may not be quite as strong as currently advertised. Hope that hunch is wrong though.

Here was today's 00z EC's suggestion:


Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/05/2018 09:04

Yes Ken, that upcoming low down south does look interesting. Looks to reach its full potential of 988 on Friday just north of Tasmania. Still a ways off but. Should bring a good dose of winter weather our way. Winds should remain up here through the weekend, so no widespread frost likely. Maybe when it shoves off to sea and the high takes over we might have more widespread frost with lighter winds. Tasmania should have a good easterly wind when the low passes by. Not very common for them to have strong eastelies, I wonder if this will present any problems for the Hobert area?
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/05/2018 07:32

GFS has 3 strong cold fronts with the 540 pushing up to the QLD/NSW border over the next 2 week period. CFS has also been very consistent for some time now about colder than average temperatures in June. Winter might be back after a mild two years.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/05/2018 07:41

I can’t see any exceptionally cold blasts for our area within the next couple or few weeks yet. Maybe some spells of somewhat colder than normal conditions at most, and mainly overnights. Much of the unseasonably coldest air within the next couple of weeks looks like being further west closer to the long wave troughing. Hope I’m wrong though.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/05/2018 08:11

(excluding the post-front colder air this weekend that is).
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/05/2018 17:17

Is that real cloud/precip on Stapy or Chaff from Amberley?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/05/2018 17:17

Chaff.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/05/2018 17:20

Thought so, Cheers Ken, thanks.
Looking forward to the cool nights, cold mornings.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/05/2018 23:45

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
GFS has 3 strong cold fronts with the 540 pushing up to the QLD/NSW border over the next 2 week period. CFS has also been very consistent for some time now about colder than average temperatures in June. Winter might be back after a mild two years.


Seems to have backed right off on recent runs. Big blocking high in the eastern bight driving boring southerlies up the coast.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/05/2018 00:15

I'm looking forward to the passage of the cold front overnight tonight and our first taste of gusty winterlike west to southwesterlies kicking in (peak gusts could even cause downed branches, etc for some of the more exposed places on higher ground in southwestern SE QLD and especially around the NSW northern tablelands). May get gusty earlier today in those areas just ahead of the front also.
The windchill factor and much colder nights will be great although obviously if winds stay up too much overnight Friday, min temps may not get quite as low as forecast for some places.

Just gotta get through one more unseasonably warm day today.

Significant weather summary map using GFS data for between Thu and Sun:


Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/05/2018 11:51

It was around 4C this morning ahead of the front. They are predicting around 3C for the coldest overnight temps. for the next few days behind the front. Wouldn't you expect a larger drop in temps. behind this major front? I know the air was very dry this morning and dew points quite low, but isn't the air behind this front suppose to be cooler and drier? Any thoughts?
Cheers.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/05/2018 11:53

The min temps won’t drop by a huge amount if it stays too breezy overnight.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/05/2018 13:01

Cheers Ken, I assumed the wind would drop off overnight by Sunday. I guess after that there might be a more S SE wind which would bring back a bit of moisture.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/05/2018 06:16

From my experience when I was living in Sydney, places like the western suburbs, Penrith, Richmond etc. , can fall below 0 on still nights when the highs are smack bang over the area. When it was windy however, the temps would be around 5-6 degrees.
What's Warwicks lowest recorded minimum??
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/05/2018 06:25

Originally Posted By: gleno71
What's Warwicks lowest recorded minimum??

-7.7C
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/05/2018 07:57

Oh boy it’s a different air out there this morning. Love it.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/05/2018 09:20

Still warm with a dew point at 18 when I went for my morning run just after 5 this morning. But feeling cool and crisp at a dew point of about 8 by the time I got ready to go to work around 7:30.
Posted by: pabloako

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/05/2018 10:23

Certainly cooled down here. It was 19°C and midnight and now 16.8°C and humidity is dropping away now too.
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/05/2018 10:23

Still a dew point of 18 deg up here in Central Qld Yeppoon... it has not dropped below 18 deg for a while, I think it did a week ago for a few hrs but hasn't been below it for months...

Can't wait to see my dads face as he goes to sit outside in the evenings and says it never is cold up here lol. Kind of forget we can get cold at night here.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/05/2018 14:42

Currently 16C here and humidity of 22%. I think I saw the dew point here close to -6 a bit earlier. Fire is going!
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/05/2018 17:47

15 Deg out here at the moment falling -2.5 per hr and 20% humidity. Wind just dropped to 0 from the NW. I recon it will hit zero here, Forecast is 1 deg.
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/05/2018 18:47

Yep down to 11C here about 2 hours after sunset, probably be close to 0C in the morning as well with the first frost of the season. Amazing that the same system causing nice clear days and cold nights up here is causing snow in NSW and VIC and record flooding in TAS.
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/05/2018 19:16

Still waiting for the dew point to drop. 87 percent humidity here but 32 percent in Rockhampton...
Posted by: pabloako

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/05/2018 20:09

13°C here now, the Dew Point is nudging 0°C and there isn't a breath of wind.
In theory, if the air stays still, at my altitude I should be up in a lovely temperature inversion and it will be 4 or 5 degrees warmer here than it will be down in Caboolture in the morning.

At least it gives me an excuse to drive down to Maccas to get breakfast to test my theory out! grin
Posted by: Stormwalker

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/05/2018 22:37

14.9 in chapel hill smile

24 inside with the 7.1 split going strongly smile
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/05/2018 22:57

WZ said it'd be 7 deg now; 3 deg at 6am .... well it's 3 deg NOW - there is NO way I am leaving my bed in the morning till about 10am at this rate!
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/05/2018 07:25

Hi all got down to 0.7 deg out here. On the way up now.Have a great day.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/05/2018 08:14

Wynnum Nth Sat min 9.0C, grass min 7.1C. Lowest DP last 24 hours minus 4.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/05/2018 09:37

Apparently it got down to 0.4C here - in this instance I will take their word for it. There's no way this body gets out of bed to check. I can't see any sign of frost; but then most of my plants are older now so should be more resilient.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/05/2018 16:50

Very boring weather coming up on all fronts if I may say so. Big longwave trough stuck over the eastern Tasman Sea again leaving Oz all but ridged up. Zzzz
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/05/2018 00:18

Windiest night so far here. Howling
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/05/2018 11:52

As much as people love native plants and palm trees, nothing comes close to the old-fashioned brilliant autumn colours of deciduous trees and their ever-changing appearance throughout the year ... for me at least anyway.

Here's some I took of the fiery red autumn colours on the Red Maples and Sumacs as well as oak and liquidambar trees around Stanthorpe yesterday.
It was 11C at the time (around 11am) with feels-like temp of 2C... it was overcast earlier in the morning due to all the low cloud being dragged up the rear flank of the big low but the sun came out and brought out the autumn colours even more.
Also below are some of the min temps this morning from around SE QLD:
















Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/05/2018 13:45

Superb photos Ken.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/05/2018 15:54

Great shots Ken, fantastic colours.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/05/2018 17:16

Some nice colour in tonight's sunset, snapped this on the tablet just before...
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/05/2018 19:38

Great photos Ken! Was in Stanthorpe just a few days ago and saw those beautiful maple trees you showcased along the New England Highway. Will be there for 3 days this coming week also. Lovely area!
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/05/2018 23:32

Agree on trees Ken. Drove up the Monaro and Newell last week and the Autumn change was well underway. One of the things I miss most about Melbourn too.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/05/2018 06:16

Lovely Ken,just wondering if its worth the drive out to Stanthorpe? I know there can be a lot of colour along the river from the photos I have seen in the past.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/05/2018 06:17

Originally Posted By: Namarrkun
Some nice colour in tonight's sunset, snapped this on the tablet just before...


Yes I seen on the satellite there was some nice cloud around just South of Brisbane. Colours looked nice looking at some of the webcam pics.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/05/2018 06:50

Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: Namarrkun
Some nice colour in tonight's sunset, snapped this on the tablet just before...


Yes I seen on the satellite there was some nice cloud around just South of Brisbane. Colours looked nice looking at some of the webcam pics.
i would have missed it completely if not for my daughter...I was watching the footy on the telly and she called me to come out on the verandah and have a look at how pretty the sunset was...glad she did. My tablet pic does that sunset little justice, was much better to view in the real world.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/05/2018 08:24

Hi all ,Got down to 1.7 deg out here. Nice clear sunny day.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/05/2018 13:13

The cool nights here in winter make way for stunning days . Absolutely perfect here today.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/05/2018 15:27

Low level flow here seems to starting to turn back to S to SE'lys over the next few days. Some coastal low level clouds perhaps the odd shower probably just offshore. Looks pretty stable for a couple of weeks.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/05/2018 15:43

Originally Posted By: Namarrkun
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: Namarrkun
Some nice colour in tonight's sunset, snapped this on the tablet just before...


Yes I seen on the satellite there was some nice cloud around just South of Brisbane. Colours looked nice looking at some of the webcam pics.
i would have missed it completely if not for my daughter...I was watching the footy on the telly and she called me to come out on the verandah and have a look at how pretty the sunset was...glad she did. My tablet pic does that sunset little justice, was much better to view in the real world.



Nothing can beat the Human eye that's for sure. Always good to witness a stunning sunset even if you don't have a camera in hand
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/05/2018 17:47

There's a decent looking upper trough due to form through inland QLD later in the week but the lower levels just aren't conducive to produce anything significant from it - and by that I mean we've locked into a pattern now where we have a deep westerly wind belt running across the Tasman Sea (consequence of the stagnant LWT?) and a gigantic blocking high sitting in the bight which is blasting us with drier SSE winds. Every single day looks nearly identical on model prediction charts up to 10 days - huge high in the bight - offshore winds across southern half of the Tasman Sea - and the 500mb longwave pattern indicates the LWT simply does not move from the Tasman Sea / NZ longitudes for days. Classic block pattern here.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/05/2018 22:14

Pls tell us some good news ;-)
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/05/2018 22:54

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Pls tell us some good news ;-)


Sorry mate, no can do! frown
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/05/2018 07:10

http://www.news.com.au/technology/enviro...ce78e0c754bf8e7

Not sure I understand the point of this study? Are they saying BOM and others just consider individual weather events at a time and not combinations of causal factors? I would have thought they did?

For example:

Dr Leonard highlighted the Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria and the Brisbane floods of 2011 as examples.

He said while the fires were brought about because of drought and a heatwave, they were driven by a high pressure system and resulted in hospitals being stretched, so there were multiple considerations.

“With the floods it was two storms in quick succession and there wasn’t enough appreciation for the quick succession of storms,” Dr Leonard said.


This makes no sense at all. From memory it was the high pressure system with a front that caused the Black Saturday bushfires. They were the short-term causes - the sort of thing BOM would typically warn about as a bushfire danger. It was the droughts and heatwave that were the medium and longer-term causes. As for the Brisbane floods that was clearly caused by La-Nina/IOD/high SSTs as a long-term factor with consistent rainfall and heavy rain events in the medium with a significant upper low event and embedded storms/rain trains causing the actual flood. This is pretty 'common knowledge' in BOM releases and in the Aus weather community. Is the study really pointing out such obvious things or am I missing something here?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/05/2018 07:13

Models show a tropical trade wind surge in a weeks time. Some suggestion of ECL a good way north with a good tropical moisture feed, but latest GFS model has it starting a long way off the coast and moving east at a rapid rate.....
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/05/2018 07:23

NF: I'm not sure what the article is getting at either. The longer term background influences that initially helped set the stage for both the Black Saturday fires and the 2011 floods were extensively and frequently talked about and in the spotlight long before the individual weather events occurred.

“When hazards impact communities we’ll hear, ‘the one that caught us by surprise’ and ‘we didn’t see it coming’ or ‘this wasn’t like the ones we’ve seen before’. <=== this sort of attitude always irritates me. It often comes from people who live in a cave and reeks of a "just because I didn't hear about the warnings, no-one else did" kind of mentality. Sure, some events do end up being a lot worse than first expected but in this day and age, it's virtually unheard of to have a big weather system causing widespread destruction such as a TC or big bushfires without any warning or signs beforehand.

The one thing that is interesting though is the research in recent years focussing on certain combinations of the biggest multiple impacts from certain synoptic setups.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/05/2018 07:25

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
http://www.news.com.au/technology/enviro...ce78e0c754bf8e7

Not sure I understand the point of this study?


They don't say exactly which study they are referring to, but it might be this perspective, which is not really a scientific study, but a 'perspective' which is closer to an opinion piece, but still written according to scholarly standards/academic rigor.

If it is referring to that article it seems more about forecasting and preparing for future climate change rather than short term forecasting - it talks about engineers and climate scientists, but not weather forecasters. Full article is behind paywall.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/05/2018 09:11

There is a couple of things I believe about humans and the weather. Apart from us tiny minority that are interested in the weather and know a bit about it, like myself and the rest of you especially Ken who have a huge knowledge, is This. The vast mass of the people out there have absolutely NO UNDERSTANDING of the weather and really NO interest. I posted once that I believe 99.999% of people along the south coast of QLD have no idea what a tropical cyclone is. I got hammered for it but I still stand by it. When it comes to communicating with the public I am afraid Ken, the Bureau will always be up against ignorance and arrogance. Also if you take a line from about south of Roma to Oakey through Toowoomba and down the western edge of the great divide; this area and many parts of NSW[SEE NSW THREAD) are going into an exceptional drought. It seems that some posters feel this could be unprecedented. Hope this is not off topic and too rambling. Enjoy your day everybody.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/05/2018 09:25

Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
There is a couple of things I believe about humans and the weather. Apart from us tiny minority that are interested in the weather and know a bit about it, like myself and the rest of you especially Ken who have a huge knowledge, is This. The vast mass of the people out there have absolutely NO UNDERSTANDING of the weather and really NO interest. I posted once that I believe 99.999% of people along the south coast of QLD have no idea what a tropical cyclone is. I got hammered for it but I still stand by it. When it comes to communicating with the public I am afraid Ken, the Bureau will always be up against ignorance and arrogance. Also if you take a line from about south of Roma to Oakey through Toowoomba and down the western edge of the great divide; this area and many parts of NSW[SEE NSW THREAD) are going into an exceptional drought. It seems that some posters feel this could be unprecedented. Hope this is not off topic and too rambling. Enjoy your day everybody.

Hmmm I don't know about "no interest". I always see a lots of people commenting and showing interest whenever we have severe thunderstorm setups, cold blasts or TC's up north on many social media (non-weather) news pages... and especially just during day to day activities such as riding on a bus, overhearing people's conversations in food courts, etc etc I often hear talk about any upcoming major weather events that have gained headlines in the media.
So I think there is a widespread general interest in weather whether it's the type that affects people's own activities or major weather events. The fact that the Bureau's radar webpages are one of the most clicked-on sites in Australia is testament to that e.g. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...ith-the-weather

But I do think there's a big difference between that general interest and how much people actually know about the weather and forecasting e.g. many people including media in this country still struggle to grasp the concept that tornadoes actually do occur in Australia, not just "mini tornadoes".
I once remember a news crew interviewed some people on the street about what they knew about how official forecasts are created - one guy said in a serious way "they just google for it on the internet don't they?"
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/05/2018 09:48

I suppose there is a difference between interest and understanding. I just noticed the places I have worked in, both office and factory, the ignorance was appalling, In the last job, it was really frustrating trying to, very kindly, of course, explain things and answer genuine questions. But then, everybody loves the Bureau radar, just a shame there will not be much to see for a while, except out to sea., if that.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/05/2018 13:31

Is it normal for a high to actually regress to the west? I don't think I have seen that happen before.
Posted by: Lewis

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/05/2018 15:11

I agree with Pete here - when people do talk about the weather, or when the media does report it, it is often after the worst has passed - when you have roofs ripped off, people crying and businesses ruined, rather than beforehand when people actually need the notice. Tropical cyclones would be the exception, but even then, the most significant coverage occurs during and after the cyclone - too late to prepare!

May 1 2015 still sticks in my head as the best example. We had a serious (and eventually fatal) situation, yet even as late as 4-5pm the media (TV & radio) were still too busy talking about the latest celebrity outrage...
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/05/2018 20:12

A dedicated weather channel free to air would be great.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/05/2018 21:29

I am really hoping the forecast for the next few days of not much chance of rain holds true. I would usually like some rain, but last weeks minor dribble early in the week showed a roof leak. it got a lot worse as I found I needed to replace the whole lower level roof at home, as the roof pitch is nearly zero degrees slope and trying to replace a piece of it only is not an option because it is 1960s clip lock roofing. So I took the old roofing off yesterday. I need few days to extend some framing, before new colourbond goes on Friday. Tarps are up overhead, but still right now I would not like any rain, and also not much wind.
Must say though daytime temps are perfect for working at the moment.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/05/2018 09:35

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Is it normal for a high to actually regress to the west? I don't think I have seen that happen before.


I know strong high's have a tendency to be very slow moving, can't recall a high ever moving west.

However if you look at Tropical cyclones and east coast lows, they can move in a westerly direction towards the coast from the ocean, so maybe the same rules apply to very strong highs.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/05/2018 13:36

Wish it would keep moving West and disappear off the radar altogether!
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/05/2018 13:58

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
..................
But I do think there's a big difference between that general interest and how much people actually know about the weather and forecasting e.g. many people including media in this country still struggle to grasp the concept that tornadoes actually do occur in Australia, not just "mini tornadoes".
I once remember a news crew interviewed some people on the street about what they knew about how official forecasts are created - one guy said in a serious way "they just google for it on the internet don't they?"
There is one underlying fact that contributes to interest/knowledge of weather.
The weather is one of the few things in life that humans have no control over. Our main societies today have managed to have an effect on wildlife, topography & many other "natural" commodities. But for the most part, daily weather will (hopefully) always be an organic presence that changes at its will - not at the will of mankind. There is no way of changing what the weather will do today.
** please note I said DAILY WEATHER .... not climate ...... that can of worms is sealed here.**

The skill of predicting the most probable occurrences in daily weather is not something that can be successfully learned online; it takes years of study to become a guru such as Mr Kato. However many try to use the google school of weather and the facebook college of meteorology to get a crash course & post blindly about their misconceptions. Once they are outed a few times, they often grow angry to the stage of denial.

So we have something that we cannot be manipulated or controlled as well as something too complex to understand in 140 characters or less. This just doesn't fit into today's "must have it/ want the beta version/ search engine compatible" lifestyle many have embraced.

Unlike a movie/download/podcast it can't be fast forwarded so their mind wanders to something more pliable.
And that's enough from me , as I've probably lost 3/4 of those under the age of 40 now.... lol.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/05/2018 17:31

EC/GFS don't have the high budging until at least Friday next week. Meanwhile, NZ gets slaughtered by cold, miserable winter westerlies till then.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/weather/news/video.cfm?c_id=1503080&gal_cid=1503080&gallery_id=193037

I've suggested it before - but I can't help but think that the virtually-stagnate long wave pattern is partly responsible.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=hemisphere&lc=sh
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/05/2018 20:59

Not sure if you are aware Kazz, weather manipulation through cloud seeding with silver or potassium iodide been happening for many years now, not to mention other projects, most evident during the Beijing Olympics making it rain early in the day as to not disrupt the sports later on & now the Chinese are planning a bigger seeding program on eastern side of the Himalayas, sorry for the off topic but interesting stuff nonetheless. Just wish we had the same conditions here for cloud seeding but not with silver.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/05/2018 21:00

Getting slaughtered is an understatement! At least somewhere around the Aus region is getting interesting weather What is with this persistent unseasonal pattern? Very strange or maybe it's nothing new but completely different for this time of the year in my opinion
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/05/2018 22:04

Oh well, at least we're receiving some nice little showers tonight - no doubt enhanced by the upper trough sitting through CQ. Upper trough weakens rapidly from tomorrow afternoon though.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/05/2018 07:57

Yep what a difference a bit of cloud Cover makes to the temperature.I guess I'm just allergic to cold dry air, some love it but not me.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/05/2018 17:31

All that rain, just fallin on fish.
Just a little further west please.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/05/2018 19:11

So it is blowing nearly 30 knots from the SE - why isn't the rain showing on radar being pushed onshore?
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/05/2018 20:10

Looks like it is to me? The bigger blob further offshore which is hardly moving is probably higher up near the mid-levels where steering is much weaker compared to the lowers.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/05/2018 21:41

Haha now it comes onshore. Been sitting out there all day. Solid downpour here now.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 20/05/2018 12:39

Looks like in another day or two we will be below average for the month with our overnight lows. Another morning near freezing. Days have been beautiful.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/05/2018 11:40

Wynnum Nth Mon min 7.1C, grass min 6.2C.

After being somewhat above average up to the 11th, a total change has occurred with each day since then being below average, bringing the average local temp anomaly so far this month to minus 0.4C.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/05/2018 11:55

outstanding weather at present.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/05/2018 13:00

Originally Posted By: BIG T
outstanding weather at present.

Endlessly boring as hell if you ask me. A lot of places also really need rain. The whole countryside looked remarkably dry and brown when I drove out to Stanthorpe and Toowoomba in recent days.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/05/2018 13:37

Our coldest morning this autumn/winter season yet at minus 2!
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/05/2018 16:11

yeah sure its a tad boring ken , but 24deg with toasty sun & a cool air on your face , light breeze ( notwithstanding what some people need ) , its a delight. So good , its almost worth buying a dog just so you can walk it.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/05/2018 18:33

Don't think we will see much now til maybe mid June if there is a big swing to la-nina could see some ECL's but might be stalling around nuetral for now.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/05/2018 19:15

Sure is nice weather there is no denying.But like Ken and other severe weather enthusiasts, I get bored with it as well.Over the years I've got around this by lookin forward to a destination where tropical thunderstorms are the go during our boring winters,l Ike Singapore, the USA Malaysia and Southern Borneo.Of course it's a money thing and not all of us have the luxury .Closer to home Southern W.A. can get interesting as well,but for us here we are gunna have to appreciate what we got until September or so my friends with the approach of our well renowned storm season
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 21/05/2018 22:17

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: BIG T
outstanding weather at present.

Endlessly boring as hell if you ask me. A lot of places also really need rain. The whole countryside looked remarkably dry and brown when I drove out to Stanthorpe and Toowoomba in recent days.

Yes maybe boring for "weather events", but the thread is also covers day to day weather so the absence of anything notable is equally a mention of comment.
I have thoroughly enjoyed day temps, feeling the uncomfortably the cooler nights, and appreciated no rain in last week while I repaired my roof.👍
Rain is needed near and beyond great dividing range as you say Ken and I hope it comes soon. Possibilities in the forecast, but more importantly what actually happens does tend to swing so hopefully weather that rectifies rain anomalies is SEQ and northern NSW is not far away.
Day to day weather is the oil in the machine that keeps this forum's continuing discussion healthy 😀
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/05/2018 18:15

This longwave trough over NZ has barely moved...and until it does, we'll be stuck under this stupid endless ridge / descending air coming in behind it. It's not like this wasn't predicted though, could see this block coming from as early as last week.

Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 22/05/2018 18:17

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: BIG T
outstanding weather at present.

Endlessly boring as hell if you ask me. A lot of places also really need rain. The whole countryside looked remarkably dry and brown when I drove out to Stanthorpe and Toowoomba in recent days.
yep there's plenty of places looking very dry currently...3 weeks ago we camped between Warwick and Killarney and it was brown all around those parts. Last weekend we camped out at Jandowae, then drove the dingo fence home to Brisbane via Bell, around the bottom of the Bunya Mountains to Cooyar and Yarraman and home to Brisbane....same look happening for most of those areas also, very dry in many areas.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/05/2018 07:22

Yeah its Dry again all the grass is dead out here. Still waiting for the cold to hit ,My wife is itching to light the wood fire lol.Trouble is she gets the house up to 25deg lol. Man it works good. Have a great day everyone.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/05/2018 08:36

I'm curious to know why the high isn't moving? Is it because of the lack of wind or the upper winds are so weak its not pushing the high along? I am loving this weather though
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/05/2018 08:50

Originally Posted By: gleno71
I'm curious to know why the high isn't moving? Is it because of the lack of wind or the upper winds are so weak its not pushing the high along? I am loving this weather though


Current longwave pattern has a lot to do with it imo.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/05/2018 08:50

We should be lucky that this blocking pattern hasn't occurred in summer otherwise it would be very hot.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/05/2018 09:20

Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: gleno71
I'm curious to know why the high isn't moving? Is it because of the lack of wind or the upper winds are so weak its not pushing the high along? I am loving this weather though


Current longwave pattern has a lot to do with it imo.


Yep the longwave pattern's been very static with longwave troughing to the west and east of Australia and longwave ridging in between which encourages a tendency for highs in the latter region.
There's also been a split flow pattern in the polar and subtropical jet which can also encourage a blocking high.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/05/2018 09:38

Some of the sweetgum aka liquidambar trees around Brisbane yesterday as the sun was setting with their autumn tones soon to reach a peak (I suspect the recent spell of very cool nights combined with the sunny days has helped this year).







Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/05/2018 09:56

Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: BIG T
outstanding weather at present.

Endlessly boring as hell if you ask me. A lot of places also really need rain. The whole countryside looked remarkably dry and brown when I drove out to Stanthorpe and Toowoomba in recent days.

Yes maybe boring for "weather events", but the thread is also covers day to day weather so the absence of anything notable is equally a mention of comment.
I have thoroughly enjoyed day temps, feeling the uncomfortably the cooler nights, and appreciated no rain in last week while I repaired my roof.👍
Rain is needed near and beyond great dividing range as you say Ken and I hope it comes soon. Possibilities in the forecast, but more importantly what actually happens does tend to swing so hopefully weather that rectifies rain anomalies is SEQ and northern NSW is not far away.
Day to day weather is the oil in the machine that keeps this forum's continuing discussion healthy 😀

The absence of anything notable has been going on for months though with few exceptions. As the saying goes, no matter how much you roll a poo around in glitter, it's still a poo. There's only so much to talk about when almost every day is the same, week after week and systems constantly die just before reaching us. I'm not after apocalyptic weather events every week but even just a bit of variety would be nice rather than incessant monotony.
The difference between this current ongoing pattern and many others (especially during the warmer convective season) is that the current type tends to be a lot more predictable so what ends up happening in reality tends to lack many big surprises.

Having said that though, I have been enjoying the cooler temps, not having to use A/C and some of the autumn colours.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/05/2018 10:14

Some of the models have been suggesting a big low intensifying off the NSW coast later next week with a cold blast coming up behind it after the passage of a cold front.

If it peaks too far west, we'll get somewhat less cold W or WNW flow during the daytimes.... if it peaks too far east, we'll get a milder S to SSE flow... and if it doesn't deepen as much as currently forecast, it won't be quite as cold during the daytimes... but if it peaks in the goldilocks zone, it may live up to expectations.
The upper level support for this surface system currently looks alright though.

In the meantime, still looks like the coming days will feature an increase in clouds at times compared to recent days as winds become a little more SSE then SE and a bit of coastal shower activity (mainly end of the week and weekend).... and min temps becoming milder and max temps becoming a bit cooler. Some weak instability also and a broad upper trough moving across central and northern parts of QLD.

Current EC 10-day snowfall:


Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/05/2018 10:38

wow ill be in Sydney for a few weeks for the Vivid festival, Oberon only a few hours from where my parents live, might have to take a trip out there if it snows.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/05/2018 18:37

I am gona be down there last wk in June,heading out to Katoomba , jenolan caves, Bathurst etc , hoping for a cold blast to roll through when I’m there, couldn’t be that lucky tho I guess.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/05/2018 20:14

Enjoy the frolicking in the cold ice haha give me the tropics anyday!
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/05/2018 21:18

Tonight's GFS still holding firm on the big cold blast at the end of the month. EC going for sub-15 max for Brisbane with wind chill. Hello winter! Ken must be very excited.

Might be a warm spell to follow as well once all the frontal and low action moves east.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 23/05/2018 22:53

It is starting to look like this monotonous blocking pattern is about to break, but there doesn't appear to be any real significant rain events for our part of the world (looks better in NSW, but it's only early days). Anyway, you can see the break in the block pattern on both EC & GFS now as the mid-latitude systems start to become much more mobile again.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 24/05/2018 08:54

Originally Posted By: BIG T
I am gona be down there last wk in June,heading out to Katoomba , jenolan caves, Bathurst etc , hoping for a cold blast to roll through when I’m there, couldn’t be that lucky tho I guess.



It's a lovely part of the world out that way.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 24/05/2018 08:56

Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Enjoy the frolicking in the cold ice haha give me the tropics anyday!


I will only enjoy it if I see the white stuff..... the snow that is
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 24/05/2018 10:20

Originally Posted By: Namarrkun
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: BIG T
outstanding weather at present.

Endlessly boring as hell if you ask me. A lot of places also really need rain. The whole countryside looked remarkably dry and brown when I drove out to Stanthorpe and Toowoomba in recent days.
yep there's plenty of places looking very dry currently...3 weeks ago we camped between Warwick and Killarney and it was brown all around those parts. Last weekend we camped out at Jandowae, then drove the dingo fence home to Brisbane via Bell, around the bottom of the Bunya Mountains to Cooyar and Yarraman and home to Brisbane....same look happening for most of those areas also, very dry in many areas.


And yet Western Downs Council in its 'wisdom' have taken us OFF the Drought Declaration. I honestly don't know what they are thinking frown
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/05/2018 11:40

ECMWF 500mb height level looks to show more of a polar influence up this way from about next weekend onwards. Just in time for winter! Looks like after a very warm start to the month, we will have about average May temperatures out this way.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/05/2018 12:16

Will have to see what that low down south does models want to push it north.
Posted by: Rob G

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/05/2018 12:51

Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: BIG T
I am gona be down there last wk in June,heading out to Katoomba , jenolan caves, Bathurst etc , hoping for a cold blast to roll through when I’m there, couldn’t be that lucky tho I guess.



It's a lovely part of the world out that way.


When it rains it's better. Right now the whole district looks terrible. Although we had reasonable rain and snow 2 weeks ago today, it's too cold for pasture growth. The only green in NSW is the coastal strip north from Port Stephens, as seen here EOSDIS
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/05/2018 13:31

Just on a different note that was an amazing prediction by the BOM forecasting storms around the bay islands for this Arvo.That forecast was made yesterday pm and right on schedule there is activity in that region right now.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/05/2018 13:45

Just have to hope that next low due mid-next week peaks over inland Australia, not once it's barreled off into the Tasman Sea like they usually do.

Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Just on a different note that was an amazing prediction by the BOM forecasting storms around the bay islands for this Arvo.That forecast was made yesterday pm and right on schedule there is activity in that region right now.


Yeah, cold air aloft again which is enhancing that shower activity.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/05/2018 14:42

The 30 day EC ensemble is currently suggesting reasonable probabilities of lower than normal MSLP shifting to southern and southeastern Australia early to mid next month.
Posted by: KevD

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/05/2018 14:54

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The 30 day EC ensemble is currently suggesting reasonable probabilities of lower than normal MSLP shifting to southern and southeastern Australia early to mid next month.

Guess it depends for us on where the lower pressure focuses - to our south and we'll see dry westerlies coming through, no?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/05/2018 14:57

Originally Posted By: KevD
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The 30 day EC ensemble is currently suggesting reasonable probabilities of lower than normal MSLP shifting to southern and southeastern Australia early to mid next month.

Guess it depends for us on where the lower pressure focuses - to our south and we'll see dry westerlies coming through, no?

Yeah precip-wise but our temps will partly depend on how far west or east the main focus will be.
Posted by: KevD

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/05/2018 15:07

Thanks Ken. It's the rain we're looking for right now. Very dry even down here in Bellingen. Cloudy today but nothing in it for us. I know it's the same for many. Cannot believe we are late May and there are bushfires around!
the BoM rainfall outlook for NE NSW SE QLD for July is looking pretty dire, though also know how much that can change as we get closer...
Guess LP focusing across SE Aus could give us some snow chases if it all comes together. Got to be better than what we've been seeing.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/05/2018 17:02

Whats interesting is this.

1. The same high that gave us fine and stable weather this past week is now giving us showers and overcast skies, so highs can produce two types of weather in the Southern Hemisphere.

2. Sydney has the same windflow and the uppers are the same temp as the Gold Coast, but it's fine conditions in Sydney but overcast here.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/05/2018 17:57

Higher pressure down there Gleno and maybe sea surface temps up here are a bit warmer
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/05/2018 18:32

Way higher pressure down there, there is a 1031hpa high sitting right over them - the same high that's sat in the bight for the last 10 days.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 25/05/2018 18:49

Though the same long wave troughing in the mid levels is what changes stable to unstable if there is moisture which judging by radar S'ly winds can still bring moisture but obviously at cooler temps which makes lapse-rates shallower.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/05/2018 07:36

Temps. drop like a rock here on Thursday with freezing conditions expected Thursday morning. This would be right after the passage of the front. I suspect the wind would still be up soon after the front moves through. Must be quite a cold airmass! Low wind chill indeed!
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/05/2018 08:43

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 0.4mm. Local Kookaburras got it right again. After 2 weeks of no rain, they started up again yesterday morning.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/05/2018 14:01

24 drops/m2 in one minute & the sun was out as well. Some nice looking clouds around.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 26/05/2018 22:33

Onshore showers brought 7.0mm in the 24hrs to 9am this morning, and 3.6mm in the 24hr to 9am period before it. It ended a 15-day dry spell (May 9th to 23rd, inclusive).

It's been a very dry May to date. Although it hasn't dried off too much here yet, thanks to the heavy rain in late March followed by a number of showery days in April (particularly in the 2nd half) that continued to keep things quite moist. But if June is also very dry, I'd expect dryness to become more evident.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/05/2018 00:02

Brrr straight to Fraser Thursday . Looks like a classic winter weekend next week.
Consensus this way is heading towards a blow with the change Thursday arvo followed by clear skies, light winds and cool nights with A1 days.
Great camping weather!
👌
Every interpretation of the synoptic chart around this time next week is a reminder why one should live north of Coffs...unless you like [censored] winters

11mm last night and a few showers after dark. Thanks!
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/05/2018 00:04

Censored = $h!tty
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/05/2018 05:34

Originally Posted By: Blowin'
Brrr straight to Fraser Thursday . Looks like a classic winter weekend next week.
Consensus this way is heading towards a blow with the change Thursday arvo followed by clear skies, light winds and cool nights with A1 days.
Great camping weather!
👌
Every interpretation of the synoptic chart around this time next week is a reminder why one should live north of Coffs...unless you like [censored] winters


Haha max temps close to 20C and min temps close to 10C aint exactly freezing cold. You should try living in areas which actually get real seasons then you'll see what cold is actually like poke The bonus with that is you get to see the amazing contrast coming out of a cold winter into a beautifully warm spring with warm sunny days and vibrant lush greens.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/05/2018 06:55

Haha, yes snow is awesome and that’s an entirely different story to cold,wet and windy.

You’ve voted with your feet though Ken!

I Worked a winter doing outdoor work in the mud in sw west oz about 15 years ago. We had about 4 layers under gum boots and raincoats and I came to the realisation that planes are for visiting such locations and returning me home to sunny SEQ..

Gfs currently has a low heading north, with 30+ knots of southerly and large swell. So the models aren’t as settled on a calm clear cool weekend as I had thought.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/05/2018 08:13

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 2.4mm.
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/05/2018 18:06

Another week of boring nothing weather coming up.Looks like we will have water restrictions shortly if there is no decent rain.Dams are close to 50% and falling.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/05/2018 19:19

Yep it just goes on and on massive highs in the night and massive stagnant lows in the Tasman giving us the same ol same ol
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 27/05/2018 19:20

Massive highs in the bight I meant
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/05/2018 08:08

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 4.4mm.
Posted by: gberg

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/05/2018 10:30

Took me a couple of days to upload but we had some showers and Storms here in Noosa on friday night. Won't go down as the most epic strike that's for sure but it was good to see some lightning around! We ended up with 60mm at home and have had a further 25mm since then. Hasn't felt like it but our monthly total is now over 200mm (not that we need it).

IMG_7683-1 by George Berg, on Flickr
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/05/2018 11:54

Originally Posted By: gberg
Took me a couple of days to upload but we had some showers and Storms here in Noosa on friday night. Won't go down as the most epic strike that's for sure but it was good to see some lightning around! We ended up with 60mm at home and have had a further 25mm since then. Hasn't felt like it but our monthly total is now over 200mm (not that we need it).
nice capture.... i left Brisbane around 7.30 p.m on Friday and drove up to Gympie, saw quite a bit of lightning light up the sky as I drove along, it made for a nice drive with that breaking up the boring highway run. Most of the “action” I saw was appearing to be on Brisbane’s Northern bayside after I came through the city , aswell as when I got up towards the Sunny Coast could see it out Caloundra and further North of that area. Was still seeing lightning when I arrived in Gympie, sister in law mentioned they’d had a storm roll through there before our arrival, she said there was some good thunder to go with it.
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/05/2018 15:31

Does anyone know if there is anywhere on the internet you can access hourly temperature recordings for a site (say at least 10-20 years worth), rather then just the usual daily min/max? I presume BOM have it stored away somewhere as they have the last 14 months publicly available.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 28/05/2018 21:35

I’ve loved the upgrades the last few days.
Within 24 hours of game on it goes from a couple of mm forecast to 10-20mm
It’s welcome as I’m storing what water I can with the dry season on its way.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/05/2018 07:23

Absolute garbage these latest model runs, imo. Low pressure continues to peak once it's hit the Tasman Sea giving NZ another hammering, and us another bout of boring, dry southerlies. Winter in eastern Australia is so lame apart from the odd ECL or cold blast that's usually associated with the odd strong front that barely even makes it up this far.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/05/2018 07:54

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 9.6mm taking us over the 600mm mark for the year to date.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/05/2018 09:13

Originally Posted By: Mega
Absolute garbage these latest model runs, imo. Low pressure continues to peak once it's hit the Tasman Sea giving NZ another hammering, and us another bout of boring, dry southerlies. Winter in eastern Australia is so lame apart from the odd ECL or cold blast that's usually associated with the odd strong front that barely even makes it up this far.



If Australia was just in the same latitudes as our European and North American friends with no southern ocean. Also we start to get into the driest part of the year so wouldn't expect a increase of rain eventscompared to the summer months
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/05/2018 10:43

Yep I totally agree with you Mega and gleno.

Outside chance of a narrow band of a bit of high-based shower or thunderstorm activity moving across some parts of our region later tomorrow ahead of the cold front sweeping through although western and southern parts (NE NSW, etc) look a somewhat better chance.
Some moisture aloft, some instability, reasonable shear, and colder midlevels but definitely not an epic setup by any stretch of the imagination and not a guarantee either.

Still, if some people are lucky, they might manage to score a bit of small hail or gusty winds (not much rainfall though, if any).


Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/05/2018 14:30

Yes the days are stunning but I'd swap a few for heavy rain and some hail.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/05/2018 14:46

Yes, it doesn’t seem to matter how extreme the weather gets in the Northern Hemisphere, we stay relatively the same here. At least that’s the way it seems to me anyway.
If we do not get anything decent tomorrow, which odds are we won’t, this month would make it the 14th straight month with no “significant” rain. I wonder how long I can keep this record going!?
No one time rain event over 17mm recorded since March 31, 2017. In my backyard anyway...
At least the cooler weather is returning! smile
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/05/2018 17:12

There's been something strange falling from the sky for the last 30 mins.I'm not sure what they call it
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 29/05/2018 19:00

Young fella recons he saw a dirty big black cloud over Gatton way late this arvo with a good looking shaft of precip coming out of it. Stapy accumulated rainfall confirms a very local 25mm fall. Interesting, maybe more widespread tomorrow?
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/05/2018 09:13

End of the 12z EC and around that time period for GFS forecasts put a low in the Coral Sea too far out to really say which way it goes or if it will happen but could be something to watch...probably not
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/05/2018 16:35

At least it's something to look at Steve.

Meanwhile, reports of a fair bit of small hail from near Lismore as one of this afternoon's cells passed through the region.

I can see the anvils and sunlight outlines of the cells to my NW at the moment as well - radar/lightning imagery via Weatherzone:


Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/05/2018 17:57

Saw a few dark cloud bases and rain shafts this arvo but thats about the most exciting thing weatherwise around here lately. Agree with Ken and others re. how boring our climate can be sometimes. Although I love the hot stormy summers here, April to October can often be a mind numbing snorefest and painfully dry too!! On the up side looks like there will be some nice sunny days and cold frosty mornings over the next week so the wood heater should get a good workout smile
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/05/2018 18:16

Total rainfall for the month of May 2018 sits at 13mm. Normal May rainfall sits at almost 38mm.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/05/2018 18:16

Yea its boring..but when it does...
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/05/2018 19:52

A few nice flashes in this cell approaching us, and some surprisingly decent structure for almost June as well. Won't last very long though.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/05/2018 19:59

Video of some of the hail in Lowood from the cells this afternoon:

https://www.facebook.com/SevereWeatherAustralia/videos/10156377401387505/
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/05/2018 20:09

What a nice little storm that was, probably better than a lot of the leftover crap that we tend to get in summer. Even a couple of flangs to finish it off, good stuff.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/05/2018 20:25

Yep the advantage with any storms at this time of year/winter/spring is the much better shear compared to the sloppy disorganised mess we get in deep summer.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 30/05/2018 22:11

A few isolated thunderstorms about the northern MNC this afternoon / early evening, around Woolgoolga and also in-between Crescent Head and Laurieton. One distant roll of thunder was heard here. A dry W/WSW'ly wind moved in here around mid-afternoon killing off convection that was starting to develop more locally. Dewpoints crashed firmly into single digits with the wind change.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/05/2018 07:39

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Yep the advantage with any storms at this time of year/winter/spring is the much better shear compared to the sloppy disorganised mess we get in deep summer.



So we need the winter patterns to happen in summer then were all set !!!! I would be happy with that.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/05/2018 08:08

Wynnum Nth Thu min 6.1C - coldest this year to date.
Posted by: CJI

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/05/2018 10:44

OK, it wasn't that great, but it's the first decent amount of lightning I've seen in SEQLD this year.

The only thing that comes close to making up for storms dying on our doorstep in early spring is the light shows out to sea during Autumn. I was worried we wouldn't get any this year.

They formed well off the coast around 9:30-10:00pm and as much as I was anticipating them, I neglected to charge my batteries and soon ran out of juice.







Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/05/2018 11:05

Amazing photos CJI well done mate
Posted by: wetdreams

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/05/2018 11:06

Great shots.
With the full moon the sky almost looks like day time in a couple of those.

Thanks for posting.
Posted by: CJI

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/05/2018 11:37

Cheers guys. Its nice to have finally seen some activity.
Yeah, the moon was nice enough to illuminate the clouds without washing out too much of the lightning.
Posted by: KevD

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/05/2018 11:58

Great photos CJI smile Enjoyed watching the storms off the Coffs Coast last night.
Big winter forecast from the BoM - looking much drier and warmer than usual across much of SE Australia. I've also included the latest rainfall deficiency map as well - looks like a continuation of the conditions experienced so far in 2018. Will be interesting to look back at the end of winter to see how it pans out (and if it pans out as expected then we'll likely see an early start to the fire season - feels like the last one is only just finished)>


Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/05/2018 12:20

I'm sure that is the same generic forecast they use for every winter.
Posted by: KevD

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/05/2018 13:05

Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
I'm sure that is the same generic forecast they use for every winter.

Might feel like it, but here for example is the winter rainfall forecast for the year before last - very different:

Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/05/2018 13:30

It’s amazing how someone can we are in for our coldest winter ever, and on the other hand you see a forecast like this. I guess we will have to wait and see who wins out, is it the sun or man made global warming?
Anyway, that discussion is for another time and place.
Around -1.5 here this morning. Lower than expected. Very very dry today! Should lead to more sub 0 temps overnight.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/05/2018 14:28

Originally Posted By: KevD
Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
I'm sure that is the same generic forecast they use for every winter.

Might feel like it, but here for example is the winter rainfall forecast for the year before last - very different:



That forecast ended up verifying pretty well with what actually happened too:

P.S. awesome shots CJI


Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/05/2018 18:58

This next change the way that ridge sets up will be interesting to watch. On one hand theres a huge Tasman Low does it keep is under a more S'ly influence or does it move far enough to let the ridge wrap around a warmer more humid airmass.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/05/2018 19:05

Should’ve spent the last two years on the nz West Coast , at least they get some action.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/05/2018 20:49

Brisbane Weather bagging out BOM on FB for its forecast. And here's its own:

Winter Outlook 2018

Winter this year will come under a few different factors. We have entered solar Minimum, which means sunspot activity is dropping to a a all time low. This plays a big important part with the weather as these sunspots, produce solar flares, which produce heating in the upper atmosphere. Which is at a all time low and the upper atmosphere is cooling down due to sunspot decrease.

We already have the evidence of this happening in the northern hemisphere, which has recorded one of its coldest winters in a very longtime!. Not only do we have this in play we also have a lower warm pool of water in the pacific ocean and if this comes to the surface, it will help push us towards a El nino like situation.

So whats going to happen this winter!

We will have below average temperatures across the nation, including SEQ (this does not mean every location). Now there is a few factors we need to watch out for

1. If the warm pool of water comes to the surface and creates a el nino like scenario then winter will be bitterly cold and dry

2. The atmosphere regardless on any Model predictions including ECMWF, GFS and so on do not take into play sunspot activity and the affects it has on the upper atmosphere. So this alone means that these models CANNOT give a true reading for winter. With the upper atmosphere cooling down and has been for a few years now, this will enhance the chance of the southern hemisphere, getting a big winter storm that the northern hemisphere is well know for. If a big winter storm forms and affects Australia, we could see snow reaching areas that doesn't normally facilitate snow, snow falling in areas that haven't seen snow for a while and will bring bitter cold temperatures and a lot of temperature records will break including hard frosts

Regardless on either 1, 2 or both we will have a cooler than average winter. How cold depends on the outcome of 1 and or 2 or even both

In the meantime i would urge anyone who listens to anyone who bases their winter outlook on just models, to do their research. These models do not take these factors into consideration

a few months ago i said summer will last 6 weeks longer than normal with high temperatures, this has happened and then after anzac day temperatures will drop. This will happen slowly but i am concerned there is a chance we could see this also hitting us hard and fast!

Also the south pole is currently -53F, July 2017 it was -57F!

So overall cooler than normal winter, frosts and snow and also pends on the other possible outcomes!

Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 31/05/2018 20:57

Another very objective and scientific post:

Certain people out there and weather pages are praying my cold winter prediction will be wrong

These people want me to fail and not to exceed!

Jealousy is 1 of the most powerful emotions to control. Bloody control it and leave me alone!

My weather methods are controversial, just concentrate on yourself/weather page
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/06/2018 07:21

Elders averages reports our area is -1.7 cooler than average minimum temps for May and +0.7 above the maximum temps so we were cooler and warmer than average. It was so clear and dry yesterday, the Bunya mountains looked amazing!
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/06/2018 07:33

lol NF
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/06/2018 07:34

First frost of the season here this morning. A bit later than normal but better late than never:


Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/06/2018 07:49

A small dry trough pushed through here around 1900 last night, which dropped the already low dew point another 3 deg. Also indicated by a 26kph westerly gust at 1911. This latest small surge kept the wind up overnight resulting in a slightly warmer minimum temperature here than yesterday morning of 6.3C.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/06/2018 08:20

Oooh BOM has a solar activity page



Solar minimum, and possible el nino. Sounds similar to 2009. I remember a massive record breaking heatwave (and spectacular dust storm) in that year....

Of course there might be other factors besides ENSO and solar activity that could change the result lol.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/06/2018 11:02

-3 C out here this morning. Looks like more cold fronts on the way for next couple of weeks according to the European and American models. Frost everywhere this morning including the solar panels.
Yes, the Grand Solar Minimum and the sun in general, including increased cosmic rays due to weakening magnetosphere is a fascinating subject. Let's see how it all playes out. The northern hemisphere certainly has had its fair share of record snow, hail, cold, floods and even heat waves! Interesting times indeed.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/06/2018 11:15

WATL showing some good looking colour over NW W.A. later next week.
Wonder if it will make its way over our way? This bloody dry cant last forever.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/06/2018 11:18

When looking at any correlation between solar activity and weather, many people overlook all the times that there hasn't been any correlation and only focus on the times that both have coincided. Same principle applies to anything including ant activity.

There's also the issue of cold snaps that affect heavily populated areas of the NH such as Europe and the US tending to attract far more media attention than more rural areas which go through unseasonal warmth at the same time (e.g. during their most recent winter, vast areas of the polar and sub-arctic regions as well as the western & southwestern US were many degrees warmer than normal but this largely went by un-noticed in the headlines).

The true test is whether the times when there's been an apparent strong correlation between the two, significantly and consistently outnumber all the times when there hasn't been a correlation over a decent sample size of years.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/06/2018 13:44

Revised official low temp. here this morning was -3.5 C. I knew it felt extra cold this morning!
Good point Ken, I also saw where ice core samples from Greenland and Antarctica have shown a consistent correlation between solar activity and the climate on earth. We are still in early times of this solar minimum, it will be interesting to see what happens over the next few years.
Cheers,
Michael
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/06/2018 13:53

There have been correlations between *major* fluctuations in solar activity and climate in the past e.g. the Maunder Minimum... but the correlations are a lot weaker for most other changes in activity, if any at all.

In fact, globally averaged temps have been soaring at an even faster pace over the last few years despite solar activity decreasing i.e. they've actually been going in opposite directions.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/06/2018 14:40

Yes Ken, they certainly have been rising since 2016. But over the last 2 years, specifically from Feb. 2016 to Feb 2018 we have seen a big drop. Some say the biggest 2 year drop in almost a century. You have to go back to 1982 to see a drip similar to this one. In saying this, It's only a 2 year period however which is a very short period of time in the big scheme of things, so, let us wait and see what the next few years brings. Thanks for your input as always Ken! Cheers!
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/06/2018 15:26

Manly West min this morning 6.8C.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/06/2018 15:58

Starting to look like some agreement in some coastal troughing later next week if thise sort of scenario played out we might see some precip for coastal areas but how far inland is yet to be seen as there does not look like any significant mid/upper trough to the west there yet.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/06/2018 16:04

Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
Yes Ken, they certainly have been rising since 2016. But over the last 2 years, specifically from Feb. 2016 to Feb 2018 we have seen a big drop. Some say the biggest 2 year drop in almost a century. You have to go back to 1982 to see a drip similar to this one. In saying this, It's only a 2 year period however which is a very short period of time in the big scheme of things, so, let us wait and see what the next few years brings. Thanks for your input as always Ken! Cheers!

The below graph shows where the magnitude of the Feb 2016 to Feb 2018 drop fits into the general scheme of things - considering globally averaged temps are well known to show significant fluctuations due to La Nina's and El Nino's and that there was a huge drop in NINO region SST's from the end of 2015 when the major El Nino ended and transitioned into neutral-cool phase, I'd say this played a big role in the consequent drop of the globally averaged temps:


Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/06/2018 16:28

Originally Posted By: Steve O
Starting to look like some agreement in some coastal troughing later next week if thise sort of scenario played out we might see some precip for coastal areas but how far inland is yet to be seen as there does not look like any significant mid/upper trough to the west there yet.

That particular scenario involves a fairly sharp drop-off in the precip as you go further north - onshore flow to the south with showers but hardly anything to the north as winds bend sharply around the trough axis to be a lot southerly along the coast.

Early to mid next week, cold air moves across but it's a bit of a waste due to the southerly winds (at first). Still could squeeze out some convection, localised small hail, etc though if lucky.
A moister onshore flow further south later on.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/06/2018 16:38

Yup, very well could be the case Ken. Like I said, it will be interesting to see how increased cosmic rays with its resulting increase in cloud nucleation plays a role as time goes on. The abedo effect from that could also cool things down. Also, with the increased cosmic rays comes more seismic activity. Ash from volcanoes, if it gets high enough, also contributes to the albito effect, like it did in the year the year 1816. We live in very interesting times indeed. Cheers.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/06/2018 16:51

Not a fan tbh. The next upper trough is just an extension to all the useless troughing plaguing the Tasman Sea. The main axis of the trough looks to remain well out to sea on every day. So long as that continues to happen, we're left with more of the same...somewhat colder upper levels, but relatively drier, cooler southerlies or south easterlies (depending on what happens between the big troughs/lows in the Tasman Sea). NZ is basically a minefield of big low pressure systems and cold air for as however many days ahead, and we're getting all the drier southerly air coming in behind it.

Agree that the best we can hope for is maybe enhanced convection / showers as Ken said, but otherwise, nothing real significant unfortunately.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 01/06/2018 17:57

2009 was when we had our coldest day, -7.3. I can pass on this brrrrrr. I hope we dont get another day that cold.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 02/06/2018 08:12

Hi all.It got down to -1.1 at Roma this morning Currently 6.6 deg at 8.11 am ,Nice clear day .Have a great weekend everyone.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/06/2018 08:47

For those of us who get bored out of our minds this time of the year like yours truely, I found a Storm chaser called Pecos Hank who has put out some exceptionally good quality videos on YouTube.Check out this one for starters. . WICKED UFO SUPERCELL.Amazing Storm footage and always well narrated!
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/06/2018 11:44

Yes Tweedstorm, I also watch his videos, good stuff!
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/06/2018 12:52

The Bureau"s four days synoptic chart shows a big high sitting in the in the Southern Tasman midweek and lots of rain for the coast and hinterland. If only we had a decent upper system in the right place to drag it over the Great Divide.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 03/06/2018 14:16

Thats the convergence ive been watching for later next week. Shame it doesnt look like it will go far enough inland as you said need a decent upper system out west.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/06/2018 15:20

Wow, what a massive cloud area moving over the south part of WA. Severe weather expected there!
Here, our nights have warmed up quite a bit, but still slightly below average. Our day temps. remain above normal. If our flow remains SE, we will be above average for lows and near or above average for highs. Nothing exciting here for a long time to come it seems.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/06/2018 16:53

Nothing out of the ordinary at the moment just an average looking winter. Though still feels above average for daily maximum. The cloud cover might make it feel abit warmer aswell over the coming days.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/06/2018 18:49

BOM has some precip forecast over next few days from a coastal trough.
Is the potential there? Windy has a few bumps in the isobars.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 04/06/2018 23:17

Just 0.8mm altogether here over the previous two days. Pretty much all the rain has remained offshore in an unfavourable SSW'ly flow. The models are suggesting the flow will turn properly onshore on Wednesday, with perhaps even the chance of a moderate fall.
A little thunder was heard from activity offshore earlier tonight.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/06/2018 08:45

Originally Posted By: DDstorm
BOM has some precip forecast over next few days from a coastal trough.
Is the potential there? Windy has a few bumps in the isobars.


As others have mentioned, the only areas in SE QLD that may get some reasonable falls still look like being confined to the islands and perhaps some of the more exposed parts of the coastal fringe due to the positioning of the upper trough axis.
Even after the winds turn more onshore on Thursday, the positioning of the upper trough isn't ideal.
There may still be some localised falls further inland from thundery showers but they don't look that widespread - some could cause small hail though.

But further south in NE NSW, the enhanced rainfall looks like penetrating somewhat further inland with a more onshore flow and the upper trough lying a bit further inland.

P.S. the next upgrade to the EC model will become fully operational starting with the 12z Wed run.
I've been taking a few quick glances in recent weeks to compare how it performs against the current version and from my subjective impression, it does seem to do better with placement of precip on average. Objective skill score stats show only a very modest improvement in precip in the southern hemisphere outside the tropics so the difference probably won't be that noticeable.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/06/2018 15:30

Stapy looks lively, nowhere near us though.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/06/2018 18:59

Oh where did I put that bloody rain magnet?
I can smell the damn thing.
Posted by: kg8

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/06/2018 19:29

let hope M-Elf, I just cleaned the gutters up there, a few mm in the tank would be nice
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/06/2018 20:13

.3mm, not much but having the stuff fall from the sky felt great.
Posted by: gberg

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 05/06/2018 20:45

Just had a big flash of lightning and thunder here in noosa..
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/06/2018 07:29

Thx Ken, I can see from this mornings satview, the axis of the trough running up NSW coastline and out to our NE.
Just a little shove to the west, maybe that surge pushing up the Tasman might do the trick later this arvo.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/06/2018 08:13

WYNNUM NORTH ( 1KM FROM MORETON BAY, BRISBANE, QLD ) - DAILY WEATHER

DATE.......6 JUN 2018
TIME.......0810

CURRENT TEMPERATURE.......14.7C
CURRENT HUMIDITY..........76%
CURRENT DEW POINT........11.C
CURRENT WIND DIRECTION....SSW
CURRENT WIND SPEED........6 KPH
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE.....1024.2HPA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........35KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........1/8 cloud
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX.TEMP........22.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN.TEMP.....10.2C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN....9.4C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT...10C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP PRES...0.0mm
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..S 25kph at 1325

24 HOUR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER..NOSIG
Posted by: Ahab

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/06/2018 16:08

Radar looks great. Looks like heavy showers moving into Brisbane tonight?
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/06/2018 17:44


WYNNUM NORTH ( 1KM FROM MORETON BAY, BRISBANE, QLD ) - DAILY WEATHER

DATE....... 6 JUN 2018
TIME....... 1740

CURRENT TEMPERATURE.......17.9C
CURRENT HUMIDITY..........74%
CURRENT DEW POINT.........13C
CURRENT WIND DIRECTION....ESE
CURRENT WIND SPEED........20 KPH
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE.....1024.6HPA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........4000M
CURRENT WEATHER...........7/8 cloud, moderate showers
RAIN SINCE 0900...........1.6mm with a max rate of 22.6mm/hr.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 06/06/2018 18:04

Had some impressive thunder just off the coast down here big Rolling thunder over last half hour . Even think I saw a waterspout of Kingscliff beach just before dark tonight
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/06/2018 00:05

It's been quite a stormy afternoon and evening with lightning/thunder occurring here, nearby and locally for a number of hours. 47.0mm has fallen since 9am. The storms/rain have now cleared off but there may be a further shower or two wander through.
Showers and rain at times brought 39.2mm in the 24hrs to 9am this morning.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/06/2018 05:36

Nice to wake to the sound of rain on the roof this morning....radar looks nice currently, means no work for me though as supposed to be pouring a house slab. 6.3mm overnight for Salisbury
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/06/2018 06:18

Same here Namarrkun. I also just got some pea size hail in addition to being woken up by heavy rain, lightning and thunder.

Coincidentally, I saw someone on fb by the name of Tim Bakker who said he was meant to get his house slab poured today so was wondering if you were doing it lol

Here was the radar/lightning image via Weatherzone when I eventually got out of bed this morning... shame the better stuff isn’t making it that far inland but that was never going to be the case anyway:




Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/06/2018 06:36

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Coincidentally, I saw someone on fb by the name of Tim Bakker who said he was meant to get his house slab poured today so was wondering if you were doing it lol
i honestly have no idea the home owners name Ken (builder I work for would though) maybe it is them if they live at Coorparoo / Holland Park....lol...reckon plenty of pours around town got canned this morning though.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/06/2018 08:09

WYNNUM NORTH ( 1KM FROM MORETON BAY, BRISBANE, QLD ) - DAILY WEATHER

DATE......7 JUN 2018
TIME......0805

CURRENT TEMPERATURE.......14.6C
CURRENT HUMIDITY..........95%
CURRENT DEW POINT.........14C
CURRENT WIND DIRECTION....S
CURRENT WIND SPEED........6 KPH
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE.....1027.3HPA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........15KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........SLIGHT SHOWERS
RAIN SINCE 0900...........7.0MM

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX.TEMP.......22.5C
THIS MORNING'S MIN.TEMP....12.6C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...12.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT..12C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP PRES..1024.7HpA
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST.E 30KPH at 1520
24 HOUR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.MOD SHOWER LATE WED EASING TO SLIGHT
SHOWERS THU MORNING.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/06/2018 08:38

I would love that radar picture out here ,We nearly never see any thing but green would love some of that yellow orange stuff lol.That would mean flooding i guess.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/06/2018 09:05

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain to 0900 and first rain for June - 15.2mm.

Meteye really nailed this locally from 48 hours out. Not only in the time periods for the heavier rain ( 1900-2200 last night and 0700-1000 this morning ) but also with the expected amount, namely up to 15mm.
Posted by: Sandbank

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/06/2018 12:43

Hammering down in Buderim for the moment. Feeling very sorry for friends on the Darling Downs and further out west who can't get a drop, feed livestock or grow crops.....very cruel.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/06/2018 14:27

Well ive given BOM a bit of stick when things have not worked out
This time. Well done BOM absolutely nailed it
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/06/2018 15:04

Agree, almost 6mm better than nothing we got for 2 months. Got soaked cleaning the rain heads, felt great!
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/06/2018 17:01

Wynnum Nth 5.6mm since 0900. 20.8mm for the event, exactly what meteye forecast.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/06/2018 17:56

Not a single drop of rain here for the past 30 days. None in sight. June temperatures now above normal. Nothing ever seems to change here.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/06/2018 19:28

Elders 28 Day rain forecast (based on GFS?) looks pretty grim for us & westwards. Seems to me nothing doing until the heating & storms start in Sept. Not good, might need to buy water in August.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/06/2018 19:57

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Elders 28 Day rain forecast (based on GFS?) looks pretty grim for us & westwards. Seems to me nothing doing until the heating & storms start in Sept. Not good, might need to buy water in August.

It doesn’t use GFS because GFS doesn’t go out beyond 2 weeks. I’m not too familiar with the Elders 28-day forecast but if it’s based on the Weatherzone one (which I think it is), it uses an ensemble of a few multiweek models and longwave patterns.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/06/2018 21:09

Here’s some photos I took of the wet cityscapes in Brisbane today.
It was still close to
16C when I took the photos around 11am.

Looks like min temps could become reasonably colder again later next week with another round of westerlies while max temps gradually rise and become a bit higher than normal.








Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 07/06/2018 22:36

Cheers Ken, thanks for that but it matters not what models or ensembles it uses, grim is still the undesirable consequence.
Damn cold today, didnt get into the 20s here, even with the sun out. The 6mm today made it niice though, only thing we might get next couple months.
Lovely pics btw, thanks for sharing.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/06/2018 00:07

Altogether, 87.8mm fell here from the stormy and showery onshore flow (39.2mm + 48.6mm).
Isolated showers about today, though none hit here.
Very nice pics Ken.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/06/2018 05:45

Event total for Salisbury sitting at 14.2mm
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/06/2018 07:45

WYNNUM NORTH ( 1KM FROM MORETON BAY, BRISBANE, QLD ) - DAILY WEATHER

DATE......8 JUN 2018
TIME......0745
CURRENT TEMPERATURE.......13.8C
CURRENT HUMIDITY..........93%
CURRENT DEW POINT.........13C
CURRENT WIND DIRECTION....SW
CURRENT WIND SPEED........4 KPH
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE.....1025.8HPA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........25KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........DISTANT SHOWERS
RAIN SINCE 0900...........8.4MM

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX.TEMP.......20.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN.TEMP....12.4C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...11.7C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT..13C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP PRES..1025.4HpA
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 31KPH at 1451
24 HOUR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER..SHOWERS THROUGHOUT PAST 24 HOURS.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/06/2018 08:08

Yes Ken, I was in the Brisbane CBD yesterday. Nice to see the wet stuff for a change. The rain came down pretty good at times. Nice pics.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/06/2018 08:14

7mm in total here yesterday and today, good to have a nice rainy day for a change.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 08/06/2018 09:05

i tipped out 60mm this morning , thats for the week. Anyone near me have similar as im stunned , i was expecting an inch.Or any nearby alerts got the last 7 day totals?
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/06/2018 08:36

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 1.8mm.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/06/2018 12:56

Was thinking would be mostly stable today I know its GFS has abit of precip later tonight or early tomorrow looks abit different to onshore showers too..
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/06/2018 13:41

Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 1.8mm.
that’s 1.0mm more then we got at Salisbury...0.8mm brings it to an even 15.0mm for us the past few days.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/06/2018 17:57

No rain to report here. Temps almost 5C above the average today. Windows open like a sping day. No end in sight to the warm days. Night temps might drop to normal in a couple of days as this lacklustre start to winter continues.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 09/06/2018 21:10

Thanks Mad Elf, Seabreeze and Michael smile

Still looks like min temps might become a bit colder by next weekend but not before the spike in max temps around midweek to unseasonably warm values ahead of the next change.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/06/2018 07:46

WYNNUM NORTH ( 1KM FROM MORETON BAY, BRISBANE, QLD ) - DAILY WEATHER

DATE...... 10 JUN 2018
TIME...... 0740

CURRENT TEMPERATURE.......15.9C
CURRENT HUMIDITY..........93%
CURRENT DEW POINT.........15C
CURRENT WIND DIRECTION....SW
CURRENT WIND SPEED........ 3 KPH
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE.....1200.6HPA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........40KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........6/8 cloud, slowly decreasing..
RAIN SINCE 0900...........1.2mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX.TEMP.......22.5C
THIS MORNING'S MIN.TEMP....14.1C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...13.4C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT..15C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP PRES..1021.6HpA
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 16kph at 0926.
LAST 24 HOUR WEATHER SUMMARY..Drizzle mid morning Sat, then clearing. Early showers Sun. morning.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/06/2018 16:34

A few showers passed by this morning and this arvo resulting in 2.5mm. Nice little surprise.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/06/2018 19:35

4.8mm in the 24hrs to 9am this morning from a light rainband. A shower came ashore late this afternoon bringing 1.2mm. Photos of showers skirting along the coastal fringe earlier this evening -





Lingering chance of a shower until tomorrow morning, then it looks like there'll be at the very least a week of dry weather ahead.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 10/06/2018 21:13

Nice shots Seabreeze. Certainly been some weather off the coast particularly in the Tasman for the past 3or 4months with these Monster Lows one after the other and more to come.Whats causing this continuous pattern and more importantly what is going to be the consequence of it for later in the year.Do these powerful lows drive warm water away from our shores further toward the eastern Pacific inducing El Nino conditions or is it more complicated than that?
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/06/2018 08:12

WYNNUM NORTH ( 1KM FROM MORETON BAY, BRISBANE, QLD ) - DAILY WEATHER

DATE...... 11 JUN 2018
TIME...... 0805

CURRENT TEMPERATURE.......14.6C
CURRENT HUMIDITY..........73%
CURRENT DEW POINT.........10C
CURRENT WIND DIRECTION....WSW
CURRENT WIND SPEED........ 3 KPH
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE.....1020.8HPA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........40KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........SKC
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.2mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX.TEMP.......21.9C
THIS MORNING'S MIN.TEMP....10.1C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN... 9.9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT..12C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP PRES..1019.7HpA
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 22kph at 1111.
LAST 24 HOUR WEATHER SUMMARY..Slight shower Sun.afternoon then
clearing to cloudless conditons.
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/06/2018 16:25

Looking like a bit of semi-interesting weather for our part of the world later this week. Models showing a north west cloudband moving through Thursday followed by the coldest change so far this season on the weekend. GFS has falls up to 20mm for my area while access has bugger all rain but still a decent burst of cold and westerlies following. Nothing super exciting but sure as hell beats the monotony of the last few months and a drop of rain would be bloody lovely about now!
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 11/06/2018 17:31

Originally Posted By: LightningGus
Looking like a bit of semi-interesting weather for our part of the world later this week. Models showing a north west cloudband moving through Thursday followed by the coldest change so far this season on the weekend. GFS has falls up to 20mm for my area while access has bugger all rain but still a decent burst of cold and westerlies following. Nothing super exciting but sure as hell beats the monotony of the last few months and a drop of rain would be bloody lovely about now!

I'm not very optimistic about rainfall amounts themselves from that band at the moment, at least not for most of SE QLD/NE NSW anyway - there's a mainly WNW flow with it for most of the time which we don't often do well with when it comes to rainfall amounts, the upper trough upstream of it looks fairly flat, there's no real strong surface feature to help focus the falls apart from a weak front late Thu/early Fri, and the lower levels under the cloudband don't look exceptionally moist so a portion of the rain from it may evaporate before reaching the ground (this evaporative cooling may lead to colder than expected daytime temps in areas under the cloud/rainfall though).
The setup would have to change a fair bit for me to raise my excitement levels.

But as you say, at least it's better than absolutely nothing to watch.

There does appear to be a bit of instability along the southern third of the QLD coast on Wednesday with strong shear but you'd be hard pressed to get much out of it.

Some of the models have made that SW flow coming up over us late weekend/early next week colder than previous runs so I'm looking forward to that if it eventuates.

The latest multi-model plume for accumulating rainfall amounts for Brisbane still only shows very modest amounts for this area (if any at all):


Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/06/2018 08:12

WYNNUM NORTH ( 1KM FROM MORETON BAY, BRISBANE, QLD ) - DAILY WEATHER

DATE...... 12 JUN 2018
TIME...... 0800

CURRENT TEMPERATURE.......11.8C
CURRENT HUMIDITY..........79%
CURRENT DEW POINT.........8C
CURRENT WIND DIRECTION....SW
CURRENT WIND SPEED........2 KPH
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE.....1018.4HPA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........35KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........High cloud increasing to the S.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX.TEMP.......21.7C
THIS MORNING'S MIN.TEMP....8.9C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...7.9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT..10C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP PRES..1018.7HpA
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..W 19kph at 0916.
LAST 24 HOUR WEATHER SUMMARY..NOSIG.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 12/06/2018 16:27

-0.5 C this morning. Can't wait to see how cold we get early next week! If the high is situated in the right place, I would not be surprised to see a -5 or -6 C around here! Even colder down in Stanthorpe. Day time temps will feel like Hobart starting Sunday. Nice!
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/06/2018 07:19

Hi all. looks like I have some fast moving moderate rain heading for me if it lasts. Hope it makes it here might dampen the dust.
.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/06/2018 08:09

WYNNUM NORTH ( 1KM FROM MORETON BAY, BRISBANE, QLD ) - DAILY WEATHER

DATE...... 13 JUN 2018
TIME...... 0800

CURRENT TEMPERATURE.......12.9C
CURRENT HUMIDITY..........94%
CURRENT DEW POINT.........12C
CURRENT WIND DIRECTION....WSW
CURRENT WIND SPEED........3 KPH
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE.....1015.2HPA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........4000M
CURRENT WEATHER...........Fog patches,smoke haze.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX.TEMP.......21.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN.TEMP....10.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...9.5C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT..11C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP PRES..1015.9HpA
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..NW 22kph at 1847.
LAST 24 HOUR WEATHER SUMMARY..High cloud most of Monday, clearing
overnight. Mist, smoke haze and fog patches early morning Tues.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/06/2018 09:19

Looks good tor some rain where it is need at Winton and Longreach.
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/06/2018 12:24

Originally Posted By: ozone doug
Looks good tor some rain where it is need at Winton and Longreach.


I know I am going through a dry patch when I can say that both Winton and Longreach have had more rainfall then me. I'm located 10 mins west of the Toowoomba cbd. Its currently the driest start to the year for Westbrook in 120 years of recording (1890-2010)
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/06/2018 14:45

Quite windy today. I guess things are getting a bit active in the uppers. I guess this is the energy ahead of the big trough expected to move through and drop our temps?
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/06/2018 15:06

It has gotten very bleak and extremely windy here in the last 1/2 hour and looks like rain is headed this way. Supposed to be -2 on Monday, brrrrrrr.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/06/2018 15:15

Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
Quite windy today. I guess things are getting a bit active in the uppers. I guess this is the energy ahead of the big trough expected to move through and drop our temps?

Nah not really. There's no real significant surface systems near us at the moment and the upper troughs moving across inland Australia are currently broad but weak.
The stronger winds won't arrive until the weekend/early next week and that's when the significantly colder air will sweep over us.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/06/2018 15:23

I was also going to add re the sunspots and that talk earlier in this thread about a supposed record cold winter for us - if the current solar cycle did have such a big cooling effect on the world, we wouldn't be seeing such widespread heat many degrees above normal for this time of year across huge sections of the US, western and central Europe, and northern Russia that's been continuing for weeks in those regions.

P.S. longer range ensembles have also been suggesting another warm-up over a large section of eastern Australia later this month (after the upcoming cold air eventually eases back).
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/06/2018 16:21

Things looking a bit hopeful to the NW, might get lucky.
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/06/2018 16:50

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I was also going to add re the sunspots and that talk earlier in this thread about a supposed record cold winter for us - if the current solar cycle did have such a big cooling effect on the world, we wouldn't be seeing such widespread heat many degrees above normal for this time of year across huge sections of the US, western and central Europe, and northern Russia that's been continuing for weeks in those regions.

P.S. longer range ensembles have also been suggesting another warm-up over a large section of eastern Australia later this month (after the upcoming cold air eventually eases back).


There are several papers that assert global temps dip at solar minimum albeit by negligible amounts (around 0.2C). What is not measured in those papers is the temperature impact of extended low amplitude solar cycles (or if these occur back to back).

Based on the previous solar cycle we still have 2-3 years of solar minimum for this cycle where the annual sunspot number is below 20 to go yet. Questions for an inquiring mind. Is the impact cumulative? Will the fact that the solar maximum for the cycle was lower have any impact as well. In 2 years time we may have a clearer picture.

If we get a record cold winter this year though I would be more likely to attribute it to regional factors as I would the warm temps in other areas of the globe.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/06/2018 16:55

Check the 1600's and the relevant history books for a big extended period.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/06/2018 17:12

Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Check the 1600's and the relevant history books for a big extended period.

Hence why I said the *current* solar cycle, not the well-known Maunder Minimum back in those times.

I think it’s easy to overlook the context of the Maunder Minimum - that period of the lack of solar activity lasted for a number of decades (there’s nothing about the current part of the solar cycle that’s matched the same duration of the Maunder Minimum, not yet anyway)... and the other thing that’s often overlooked is that the extreme cold associated with that period wasn’t global, nor did it occur every year. Some regions also experienced unseasonably warm periods during those decades. The start of the cooling trend that eventually culminated in the Little Ice Age also kicked in well before the start of the Maunder Minimum (multiple centuries beforehand).
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/06/2018 18:12

Bit of light precip on Stapy to our N, zilch here as expected.
Interesting all this talk of Maunder Minimums & Solar Activity/Flares etc. Amazing how this planet works, particularly the warming part. Given recent events in Hawaii & Guatemala, what volcanic activity has taken place in the past under our oceans that we dont know about, antarctica in particular? I'd think that would create some heat? Sorry for off topic.
2C forecast minimum here for Mon, dont usually get frost on our little hill, always a first time I suppose.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/06/2018 18:17

Nah volcanic eruptions have the opposite effect (any heat they emit is far offset by the cooling sulphate aerosols they put up into the atmosphere) and even then, only big ones that put out a lot of those aerosols into the stratosphere in the right area for them to circulate around the world and linger for long enough. Those effects are also only temporary in any case.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/06/2018 18:21

A few flashes of lightning from the cells around here, quite similar to last week (or was it the week before). Isolated, but better than nothing.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/06/2018 18:39

Thanks for the explanation Ken although under water volcanic activity could have a localised effect in antarctica?
Posted by: Ahab

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/06/2018 18:42

A few drops in Brisbane right now. Those showers moving in don't seem to have much in it so I doubt there will be more than 1mm in the gauge.
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 13/06/2018 18:46

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Check the 1600's and the relevant history books for a big extended period.

Hence why I said the *current* solar cycle, not the well-known Maunder Minimum back in those times.

I think it’s easy to overlook the context of the Maunder Minimum - that period of the lack of solar activity lasted for a number of decades (there’s nothing about the current part of the solar cycle that’s matched the same duration of the Maunder Minimum, not yet anyway)... and the other thing that’s often overlooked is that the extreme cold associated with that period wasn’t global, nor did it occur every year. Some regions also experienced unseasonably warm periods during those decades. The start of the cooling trend that eventually culminated in the Little Ice Age also kicked in well before the start of the Maunder Minimum (multiple centuries beforehand).


In a roundabout way I think I agree Ken. The Maunder Minimum was preceded by the Sporer Minimum which was preceded by the Wolf Minimum. We've seen nothing remotely close to this 500 year period of low solar activity before certainly not during the past 200 years.

I'm not sure global temps will respond that quickly even if we do head into something like a Maunder Minimum (decades away at the very least).

That it takes 11 years for global temps to respond with a 0.2C drop from solar max to min is a pretty strong indicator that solar activity does not force rapid changes in global temps. Rather I suspect a slow accumulated change over decades (whether up or down).
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/06/2018 05:40

0.4mm here yesterday arvo. First measurable rain in over a month and who knows when the next lot will be. Minimums down to possibly as low as -4C here by Monday, and below -5C in places like Oakey, Warwick, Stanthorpe etc. Will be colder than anything from the last few winters if it does come off, brrrr! eek
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/06/2018 08:14

Yes Ken, the world temps during the Maunder Minimum were not uniformly cold. Most of Alaska, the southern part of Greenland and the North Atlantic, a small part of the Artic, also parts of Russia I believe and parts of the Gulf of Mexico area were above the norms. This is only in the Noethern Hemisphere. Data for the SH is not as prevalent I don't think.
It is interesting to note, right now, the SST for the North Atlantic are quite cold. But I guess we are in the early stages of this Minimum, and even further from Maunder Minimum levels.
Some say we have not even officially begun the current Minimum as what we are seeing now in sunspots is abnormally low as compared to earlier predictions.

Hey Ken, how is it looking for any snow chances this year in our area? I can't help to think if this dry trend continues, our chances will not be very good this year. Any indicators? Or will be have to wait a bit longer to tell? Cheers.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/06/2018 08:32

WYNNUM NORTH ( 1KM FROM MORETON BAY, BRISBANE, QLD ) - DAILY WEATHER

DATE...... 14 JUN 2018
TIME...... 0825

CURRENT TEMPERATURE.......18.5C
CURRENT HUMIDITY..........75%
CURRENT DEW POINT.........14C
CURRENT WIND DIRECTION....WSW
CURRENT WIND SPEED........5 KPH
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE.....1017.4HPA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........20KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........Smoke haze.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........2.6mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX.TEMP.......24.1C
THIS MORNING'S MIN.TEMP....13.3C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...12.4C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT..13C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP PRES..1014.5HpA
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..NW 20kph at 1149.
LAST 24 HOUR WEATHER........Overnight showers.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/06/2018 09:07

Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
Yes Ken, the world temps during the Maunder Minimum were not uniformly cold. Most of Alaska, the southern part of Greenland and the North Atlantic, a small part of the Artic, also parts of Russia I believe and parts of the Gulf of Mexico area were above the norms. This is only in the Noethern Hemisphere. Data for the SH is not as prevalent I don't think.
It is interesting to note, right now, the SST for the North Atlantic are quite cold. But I guess we are in the early stages of this Minimum, and even further from Maunder Minimum levels.
Some say we have not even officially begun the current Minimum as what we are seeing now in sunspots is abnormally low as compared to earlier predictions.

Hey Ken, how is it looking for any snow chances this year in our area? I can't help to think if this dry trend continues, our chances will not be very good this year. Any indicators? Or will be have to wait a bit longer to tell? Cheers.


The SST's in the north Atlantic are actually a mixed bag of warm and cool areas at the moment. The 2nd image below shows how their SST's currently fit into the global picture.

As for snow potential for the SE QLD/NE NSW highlands, the overall impression I get is that it has an uphill battle for the next few weeks, if not beyond. After the upcoming cold spell ends (albeit with cold nights/mornings continuing for awhile after the daytimes warm up), there still doesn't look to be any strong signals for prolonged cold outbreaks within that timeframe, and in fact daytimes may eventually become a bit warmer than normal again.
One of the many tools (called OCN) that the US Climate Prediction Center factors into their longer range forecasts is statistical analysis of longer term trends in seasonal temps/precip within the last 10 to 15 years in certain regions. It can be argued that this could also be relevant to our part of the world when it comes to snowfalls since trends in snowfalls (even with the high year to year variability in this part of the world) tend to also reflect long term trends in longwave patterns, temps, precip, etc... and snowfalls have trended to become very few and far between in our region over the last half a decade or so (2015 was a standout exception).

But you could never completely rule out the chance of a decent future snowfall for any given year despite any long term trends (2015 was an example). Even if long range guidance is going for a warmer than normal period during a certain timeframe, there can still be a short-lived cold outbreak during that period. Just that the odds are stacked against it and even if one does occur, it's likely that conditions will quickly rebound to become warmer than normal again.

The 1st map below was the forecast from an ensemble of several models for conditions averaged across winter and calibrated to past forecasts vs observations to improve its accuracy. But note that they were run early last month so the picture may have changed a bit since then.

Worth noting that so far this winter, Brisbane's max temps have been above average every single day except for one while min temps have been a mix of above and below average (a bit tricky to compare though because the daily obs are compared against the monthly long term mean and you'd expect it to typically get cooler as we head further into the month).





Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/06/2018 09:59

I am interested how this solar cycle goes .As predicted to to be a double dip or extended low cycle dragging out . And possibly cycle 25 may have started early . link to that .
http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/~tohban/wiki/index.php/A_Sunspot_from_Cycle_25_for_sure
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/06/2018 16:58

As always, thanks for the info Ken. I can see an near average June coming up here with highs a little above the average and lows a little below the average. Sort of like May was.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 14/06/2018 17:06

Hey Doug, some scientist like Rolf Witzsche think this Grand Solar Minimum becomes the ice age. Very technical stuff and my understanding of it is a little shaky, but anyone out there with insight into this is welcome to reply. His views are catastrophic indeed!
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/06/2018 07:45

WYNNUM NORTH ( 1KM FROM MORETON BAY, BRISBANE, QLD ) - DAILY WEATHER

DATE...... 15 JUN 2018
TIME...... 0740

CURRENT TEMPERATURE.......13.8C
CURRENT HUMIDITY..........78%
CURRENT DEW POINT.........10C
CURRENT WIND DIRECTION....SW
CURRENT WIND SPEED........2 KPH
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE.....1020.9HPA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........6/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........Trace.

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX.TEMP.......23.8C
THIS MORNING'S MIN.TEMP....10.2C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...9.8C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT..12C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP PRES..1018.5HpA
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..W 18kph at 1216.
LAST 24 HOUR WEATHER SUMMARY..Slight rain late Thurs. afternoon.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/06/2018 12:01

Warwick eye 2 sky, Rolf Witzsche Dosen't appear to have any qualification
other than author ,self proclaimed researcher ,guru, u tuber that i can find . He.s a bit out there and hopefully he's wrong lol.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/06/2018 16:37

I agree, he is a bit out there Doug. I guess I wanted to show different aspects and views on this topic of discussion. Some say complete ice age and others say runaway global warming.
I thought I saw he did have qualifications of some sort, that is why I used the word "scientist".
Oh yes, I hope is he dead wrong Doug! Cheers.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 15/06/2018 16:43

-2.2 C this morning here in Warwick. This is ahead of the trough/front. Weird. I guess this just shows how dry the air really is.
Another similar night tonight.
They have raised their overnight temps for early next week. At the same time, they have also lowered their daytime temps, especially for Monday as they have a high of around 12 C. Lows early next week are predicted to be around 0 C. The only way I can see us being this mild at night is if the wind stays up, otherwise, I would fully expect the temps to drop to at least to the levels they were this morning. Once the wind shifts to a more easterly component by mid to late week, this is when I would expect nighttime temps to rise a bit.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/06/2018 08:26

WYNNUM NORTH ( 1KM FROM MORETON BAY, BRISBANE, QLD ) - DAILY WEATHER

DATE...... 16 JUN 2018
TIME...... 0825

CURRENT TEMPERATURE.......12.4C
CURRENT HUMIDITY..........56%
CURRENT DEW POINT.........4C
CURRENT WIND DIRECTION....SW
CURRENT WIND SPEED........5 KPH
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE.....1021.4HPA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........40 KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........Sky clear.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX.TEMP.......22.8C
THIS MORNING'S MIN.TEMP....5.2C (Coldest this year)
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...4.9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT..7C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP PRES..1019.8HpA
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..NW 27kph at 1418
24 HOUR WEATHER SUMMARY....No significant weather.
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 16/06/2018 21:26

Some cold feels like day temps tomorrow for Brisbane. MetEye think it will only feel like 12 tomorrow and 10 deg on Monday.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/06/2018 07:48

Hi everyone ,Got down to -1.8 at 5.30 am at the airport on the other side of town and got down to -0.3 at my place ,Forecast was 1 deg. My Stevenson screen box is almost finished just got to do the legs so i can put the temp and other stuff at the proper BOM standard height. Should bring the temps closer to correct then . Have a great day all.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/06/2018 08:11

WYNNUM NORTH ( 1KM FROM MORETON BAY, BRISBANE, QLD ) - DAILY WEATHER

DATE...... 17 JUN 2018
TIME...... 0810

CURRENT TEMPERATURE.......12.6C
CURRENT HUMIDITY..........58%
CURRENT DEW POINT.........4C
CURRENT WIND DIRECTION....NNW
CURRENT WIND SPEED........5KPH
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE.....1019.4HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........40KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........3/8 high cloud, decreasing.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX.TEMP.......22.0C
THIS MORNING'S MIN.TEMP....7.7C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...5.3C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT..6C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1019.3
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..N 24kph at 1810.
LAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY....No significant weather
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/06/2018 12:29

Manly West SATURDAY minimum was 4.6C.

I have a second site there and only visit it every 2nd day. That site is regularly 0.5C cooler than Wynnum Nth as it is more protected.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 17/06/2018 14:44

I just came back from a 3 week holiday in Sydney. One thing I noticed down there was they get a lot more high cloud and red skies during sunrise and sunset compared to SE QLD. Does anyone know why??

Weather was okish, had some showers and good surf the first week I was there, as my parents live out near Windsor, I dodged those -2c temps and frost they can get while I was there due to a lot of cloud cover the time I was there.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 08:32


WYNNUM NORTH ( 1KM FROM MORETON BAY, BRISBANE, QLD ) - DAILY WEATHER

DATE...... 18 JUN 2018
TIME...... 0825

CURRENT TEMPERATURE.......11.8C
CURRENT HUMIDITY..........47%
CURRENT DEW POINT.........1C
CURRENT WIND DIRECTION....WSW
CURRENT WIND SPEED........15KPH
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE.....1018.7HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........40KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........Sky clear
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX.TEMP.......19.5C
THIS MORNING'S MIN.TEMP....8.5C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...5.3C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT..0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1017.5
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..SW 48kph at 1314.
LAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY....No significant weather.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 09:02

Hi all , Got down to -3.3 deg this morning in Roma.
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 09:17

-6.2 at Bongeen this morning. Would have to make it the coldest place in the state

http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weatherstation.cgi?station=11560

-4.2 at Westbrook
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 12:01

My weather station was saying 9 degrees at 6.00 a.m for Salisbury this morning, though I doubt it’s super accurate. The one thing I liked was it was saying inside the house at the same time was 19 degrees, so seems like the fireplace going all night long was keeping the house nice and toasty warm...lol.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 12:36

First properly cold winter day for the year, got a decent breeze as well.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 13:58

Indeed, good old fashioned winter day with gusty SW'lies for once.
The table below contains the 20 coolest sites in SE QLD as at midday today.

At midday, feels-like temp (using the formula used by WZ) was just 7.3C in Toowoomba and 2.9C in Applethorpe.

Still on track for SE QLD max temps to progressively rise from tomorrow onwards and be close to, or just above average by midweek while min temps look like staying cool to cold for awhile (I suspect min temps may still become lower for a number of places once the winds die down a bit more, despite some of the forecasts).

No major rain events appearing within the next couple of weeks for SE QLD either... just the chance of a bit of hit and miss shower activity later this week:


Posted by: KevD

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 14:17

Originally Posted By: gleno71
I just came back from a 3 week holiday in Sydney. One thing I noticed down there was they get a lot more high cloud and red skies during sunrise and sunset compared to SE QLD. Does anyone know why??

They would be much closer to the systems passing to our south (as they tend to do in the winter) so guess they'd be seeing the upper cloud from those systems even if the rain bearing part of the system is passing to their south. We're so far north up here that we'd likely not even see the upper cloud.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 14:32

I wonder why the official low temp in Warwick was only 4.7?
Obviously a mistake.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 14:34

Ice all over the car this morning. I really hope they do not average this bogus temp into the monthly average.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 14:35

Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
I wonder why the official low temp in Warwick was only 4.7?
Obviously a mistake.

Nope not a mistake. Low cloud was driven into the region (southern Downs) overnight which prevented min temps from becoming as low as they otherwise would. Was also breezy at times.
You can see just how much of an effect the cloud had when you look at the fairly "high" min temps in the region e.g. Applethorpe, Stanthorpe, etc.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 14:43

15 .7 deg at 2.40pm wind 10 kmh gusting to 33 kmh. Here in Roma.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 14:56

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
I wonder why the official low temp in Warwick was only 4.7?
Obviously a mistake.

Nope not a mistake. Low cloud was driven into the region (southern Downs) overnight which prevented min temps from becoming as low as they otherwise would. Was also breezy at times.
You can see just how much of an effect the cloud had when you look at the fairly "high" min temps in the region e.g. Applethorpe, Stanthorpe, etc.


Further re the above, you can see the low cloud (the very light grey mass) being progressively driven up from NSW and over the southern Downs overnight in this infrared loop which prevented the min temps on the southern Downs including Warwick from getting too low:
http://realtime.bsch.com.au/index.html?r...01806172100#nav

Applethorpe only got down to a relatively warm 2.6C while Stanthorpe only got down to 3.3C
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 15:21

Wynnum Nth Mon max temp 18.1C - ( av 21.3C.)
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 15:31

Thanks Ken, I thought it had to be a mistake seeing that West Warwick had much colder temps. But yes, localised cloud cover fits the explanation, thanks. Even Stanthorpe was not all that cold as it could have been.
Posted by: signalman

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 16:21

Strange situation Warwick Eye as my bird bath (north-east Warwick) was iced over when I ventured out around 7am. Cheers.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 17:44

At 1740 - Wynnum Nth temp 13.2C, grass temp 8.5C.
Posted by: Phantom

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 17:49

Current data for Dorrells Farm Buckendoon
Monday, 18 June 2018 5:47:00 PM

Temperature (°C):
Current 12.1
Trend (per hour) -1.9
Average today 16.1
Wind chill 12.1
Heat Index 12.1
Dew Point 5.5
Rel Humidity 64%

Wind (km/h):
Current Gust 4.8 NW
Average Speed 1.9 WNW

Rainfall (mm):
Current rate 0.0
Last hour 0.0
Total today 0.0
Total yesterday 0.0
Total this month 22.6
Total this year 381.4

Pressure (hPa):
Current 1015.07
Trend (per hour) +0.65
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 17:58

Yep Michael, it never ceases to impress (and disappoint) me just how much of an effect even a modest amount of cloud cover or winds can have on min temps.

Widespread frosts coming up over the next couple of days, some severe, and starting in the evening in some places (but as always, the min temps and frost risk will be reduced for those areas that get too much cloud or wind):




Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 18:13

1 degree at Coolangatta this morning? How is that possible? Not even Sydney gets to those minimums?
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 19:07

Yep certainly been wintry over the past few days, todays min max combo of -3.4C to 15.5C in Kingaroy was colder than anything from the last couple of winters. Wonder how low it will get tonight?
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 19:15

Originally Posted By: gleno71
1 degree at Coolangatta this morning? How is that possible? Not even Sydney gets to those minimums?


I was surprised when I saw that as well. Can't answer your question though.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 19:25

The Coolangatta airport site can often be a pretty cold site in the right setup in winter especially compared to the Gold Coast Seaway site which is often many degrees warmer at night. The fact that there’s only land behind the Coolangatta site whenever there’s a synoptic W or SW flow probably helps as well.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 20:41

A pleasantly cool, mostly sunny morning here turned colder during the afternoon due to an increase in cloud and wind. Only a little spitting rain fell this afternoon, not even enough to wet the pavement. The "proper" rain weakened and veered back out to sea to our south between here and Port Macquarie (as forecast).

Originally Posted By: gleno71
1 degree at Coolangatta this morning? How is that possible? Not even Sydney gets to those minimums?
Btw, last night's minimum of 0.6°C at Coolangatta was its coldest June minimum in 31 years of records, beating the previous record of 1.5°C (25/6/1998). It was also the equal second coldest minimum at that site for any month (tied with 15/8/2008's 0.6°C). The record low there for any month is -0.1°C (20/7/2007).

Sydney Obs Hill is well and truly in the urban heat island. Others factors that would come into play include being elevated on a 40 metre hill which gives it better exposure to breezes at night, and Sydney Harbour is a sizeable body of a water too and would probably very often insulate the air about the water and nearshore from developing a cold air inversion. Sydney Airport AWS, which has similar winter record minimums to Coolangatta, is an exposed site only 100 metres from the waters of Botany Bay, and looking at its colder nights last year seems to get a light NW/NNW'ly night breeze which puts it downwind of the heavily tarmacked parts of Sydney Airport and also the vast urban area beyond.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 21:40

Access has a bit of interest in an ecl off our region mid-late next week.
Exciting weather if not for a camping trip...
Something to watch
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 21:45

Originally Posted By: Blowin'
Access has a bit of interest in an ecl off our region mid-late next week.
Exciting weather if not for a camping trip...
Something to watch

Only if you’re south of it unfortunately.
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 18/06/2018 21:50

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Yep Michael, it never ceases to impress (and disappoint) me just how much of an effect even a modest amount of cloud cover or winds can have on min temps.

Widespread frosts coming up over the next couple of days, some severe, and starting in the evening in some places (but as always, the min temps and frost risk will be reduced for those areas that get too much cloud or wind):






Interesting that there wasn't any frost around this morning even though it was -4c. Combination of low dewpoints and light winds stopped it I guess.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Archive] - 19/06/2018 07:14

Originally Posted By: gleno71
1 degree at Coolangatta this morning? How is that possible? Not even Sydney gets to those minimums?


It would be interesting to figure out all the local effects of topography. I've noticed walking/jogging at night/early morning that cold can pour down to the bottom of sleep slopes/valleys. However in a SW regime much of SEQ is going to be warmed a little by the foehn effect as the air is forced down off the ranges. I've suspected that Sunshine Coast airport can get some colder minimums due to the Maroochydore river floodplain to the SW which might reduce the foehn effect. Might be the same for Coolongatta.

Sydney may have a much stronger Foehn effect as the mountains are higher. SEQ is also drier in a southerly set up.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5