SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018

Posted by: Seabreeze

SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 23/08/2018 19:51

(A continuation of discussion that has been occurring in the Day-to-day thread about the approaching event)

An upper low and trough combo will help bring widespread moderate rain and the chance of isolated thunderstorms to the SEQLD/NENSW region. There is potential for some spots to accumulate more than 50mm if the locally heavier falls come to fruition (most likely west of the ranges, but a couple of coastal places might get lucky too).
Unfortunately there hasn't been much for us to talk about weather-wise this winter.
Hopefully it will bring at least a little short-term relief for any struggling farmers.

Btw, if you've been having trouble with loading pages etc. on the forum since last night you're not the only one experiencing the issues. :-)
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 23/08/2018 22:00

Iím excited!
I was thinking with the humidity so low and soil so dry that rain was over until the trades kick in during February, Iím Iím right weíve had no rain since the end of June.
Had a bushfire near here at the start of the week.
Roof clean, screens clean, grass fertilised and ready to plant!
Iím banking on 10-20mm would love to see 50+

Some nice fluffy clouds around this arvo, watching radar and waiting.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 23/08/2018 22:30

First rain in Caloundra!
Posted by: Sillybanter

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 07:55

Just the moisture in the air is such a nice change here in Toowoomba. Has not penetrated far inland yet however.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 08:29

Shower clouds out to sea and some obvious signs of instability in clouds hanging over the coastal ranges here. I think its going to be a nice little rain system on the coast, and probably for the ranges as well. For August at least.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 09:15

The main upper trough is so far west dont think we gonna see anything interesting til sunday
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 09:50

From GFS it looks like a low level convergence line/front sets up inland of the range very early Sunday AM. Upper divergence ahead of the upper low enhances the lift near the border, which becomes the focus of the heaviest convection and this moves east to south east for the best rains northern NSW or just near the border, reaching the coast middle of the day and clearing early arvo. There is some higher cape - up to 500 so only low to moderate further north towards Fraser Island, so the question to me is how much general instability/back building might push this heavier convection further north. Access suggests rain spreading a bit further north and even hints at a small and short lived area of low pressure popping up near Fraser.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 11:23

Yeah, the latest runs from a number of models have slightly delayed the timing of the main peak of the rainfall for coastal SE QLD until during the daytime on Sunday (although some shower or thunderstorm activity possible before then).
Basically the main peak looks short and sharp.

Fair bit of cold air moving in aloft with the system so this may help thunderstorms and small hail for any areas which don't get too saturated aloft.

And yeah, current runs have some interesting soundings on Sunday around regions like the WBB region. Deep moisture with nice backing with height/turning, moderate instability and low level shear. I don't know if it'll be enough to help spin up any rotational fun up there but the dynamics look interesting anyway.

If you go by the current runs, still looking like the best dynamics/upmotion will be around the NWSP region of NSW and adjoining areas near, and south of the border... the same areas which are currently showing up with the most amount of rainfall in a number of the models.
Having said that, even though coastal SE QLD may not be in the best area with this system, the moist onshore flow and associated decent moisture near the coast as well as the background forcing from the system may help things a bit.

Still think the best falls will be around that northeast interior of NSW with mainly modest falls elsewhere but some locations could get significantly higher or lower amounts than the forecast range depending on any embedded heavier convection.

1st graphic - EC totals via windy.com
2nd graphic - FV3 totals
3rd graphic - multimodel accumulations for Brisbane









Posted by: Timbuck

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 13:28

Iím sure DD will back me up.......sure is nice to hear rain on the roof and thunder rumbling around the mountains.
Sure hope everyone gets a little splash of the wet stuff.

Cheers

Tim
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 14:57

Sure do Timbuck, been a couple light spits, still not enough for a dust settler, but by the look on the radar, it's on it's way. Few rumbles earlier, hope that continues into the arvo and evening.
BRING IT ON
Posted by: Dipole

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 15:21

Forum, particularly NSW seems to be slow loading.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 15:42

Black core NW of Beaudesert with doppler evidence of rotation. Quite small though. Probably hail?
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 15:50

love that winter pea size hail , i rekn a few might see some over the next cpl of days. Hope im one.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 16:09

Originally Posted By: BIG T
love that winter pea size hail , i rekn a few might see some over the next cpl of days. Hope im one.
already seen a report of small hail a few hours ago out Beenleigh way, might be a few more coming soon.
Nothing for Salisbury yet, not even a spit of rain
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 16:11

There's been a number of reports and photos of small hail from earlier this afternoon including from areas such as Sunnybank, Logan Village, Gold Coast, etc as well as in the Northern Rivers district.
Posted by: Nic_Bri

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 17:03

Airservices weather camera looking great at Archerfield AP

https://weathercams.airservicesaustralia.com/?airport=archerfield-airport
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 17:07

Originally Posted By: Nic_Bri
Airservices weather camera looking great at Archerfield AP

https://weathercams.airservicesaustralia.com/?airport=archerfield-airport
I'm looking out the front verandah at that currently, still hasn't so much as spat to rain here yet though....oh so close, but not a drop
Posted by: Nic_Bri

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 17:10

Yes Namarrkun I was at work at Archerfield AP earlier today and you could smell the rain but also not a drop!
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 17:17

Cant remember last time seeing big fat juicy clouds to our south like these. Many months ago. Come this way baby!
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 17:41

Seeing lightning out over back of Archerfield direction and hearing thunder now
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 17:46

Nice to atleast have something to look at, even if it's not rained here yet
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 17:57

Wait a minute....what's that sound I hear on the tin roof...not enough to really be called raining yet, but atleast it's spitting now...gotta love that smell of rain.
Posted by: redbucket

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 18:03

Torrential rain here. Pea sized hail. So unexpected, but so thankful
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 18:15

Ours fizzled out west of Hinze Dam, so close but no cigar
Posted by: redbucket

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 18:20

35mm in less than 30 mins. Still raining steadily.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 18:27

Throw it our way please redbucket!
Great start for the weekend, plenty lightning your way.
Posted by: redbucket

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 18:50

Holy cow. 56mm in 45mins. Best fall in I canít rememver how long.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 18:51

Originally Posted By: redbucket
56mm in 45 mins......
thatís good to read rb, hopefully others get to report similar falls, though at that rate itís likely running straight off the ground with it being so dry...just 0.7mm so far for Salisbury, settled the dust atleast.
Posted by: redbucket

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 19:14

Stopped now. The DVP2 console was still showing the value going up though, so went and checked and the funnel hole was rather blocked and the bucket still had water in it. Cleared it and it finished up recording 63.6mm.

The Nylex caught 73mm.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 24/08/2018 22:29

A quite decent fall there in a fairly short period of time Redbucket.

Thunderstorm activity has produced some good 25mm+ falls around the Coffs Harbour area this evening (Red Hill leading the way on 50mm so far).
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 06:29

Some early mornin rumbles here with 13 mm, now the dust is settled. YES
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 07:58

4mm in the gauge overnight, brings current total for Salisbury to 4.7mm
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 08:15

1.0mm here, no TS, but lightning to SW and N last night.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 11:43

Oh FFS...
Iím becoming impatient
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 11:59

Some of the small hail yesterday near Laidley taken by Marc Astbury and shared to the South Brisbane Storms fb page:





Originally Posted By: Blowin'
Oh FFS...
Iím becoming impatient

Understandable, although various models haven't been predicting the main peak to occur until Sunday for a number of runs now (but locally heavy showers & storms before then).

I'm not expecting any big totals here and the rainfall with the main band tomorrow doesn't look like lasting too long.... but some lucky locations should get much higher amounts than the area average if they happen to get under any of the heavier thunderstorms or showers today or tomorrow.
The mild moist low level flow with the increasingly colder air aloft should help with that.


Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 12:30

Haha Yeah Ken,
Fingers crossed for tomorrow.
That blob at Bribie has been going for hours.
Just 20km south...
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 14:07

Rain all around us here with isolated heavy falls and lightning, according to lightning tracker. Not a drop here yet and no thunder heard. Sky looks threatening, but so far we are in a massive donut hole. Hereís hoping...
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 14:12

I get concerned when a weather event gets delayed. They generally dont have the expected bang..
On the other hand when a system arrives quicker they generally have a bigger bang thsn expected
Will see what happens but am loosing faith in this system
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 14:17

Agreed regarding early/late arrivals.
When it does, can someone suggest which direction cells will be moving?
Yesterday (around here) they were from the sw, today from the ne.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 14:45

Knowing our luck probably backwards lol
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 15:00

Originally Posted By: Blowin'
Agreed regarding early/late arrivals.
When it does, can someone suggest which direction cells will be moving?
Yesterday (around here) they were from the sw, today from the ne.

Any embedded thunderstorms should be from a NW or NNW direction (as opposed to a mainly northerly direction at the moment).
The steering flow strengthens significantly by tomorrow so if there's any cells, they should move more rapidly than they have been.

Shallow cells should be from a direction with a more northerly component while taller ones from a more westerly direction.
Of course if the odd severe cell manages to develop, it'll diverge from these directions.

The most obvious complicating factor for thunderstorm potential tomorrow is all the cloud cover and precip.
If the strong forcing from the approaching system and a sufficiently early (afternoon) easing of cloud cover/precip can overcome the inhibiting effect of the earlier cloud cover, thunderstorms, some severe (due to strong shear) with hail, etc are possible.
If the cloud cover/precip inhibits things too much, any storms would be pretty localised to non-existent. We wait and see.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 15:04

Wow, look at all the lightning on the tracker. Been a while since we've seen that.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 15:07

Good stuff Ken, one thing that I'm happy about that the system is slow moving and probably best placed where it is for the people 100 times more desperate for rain than coastal folk are. So lets just hope the country farms that need it get some relief.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 15:29

Starting to look like some rain and storms for me ,Might go out and bang the dust out of the rain gauge lol. Its cloudy yay.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 15:34

Yeah agreed SteveO, I was about to complain about the direction of rain and that we donít get great rain from that way... but as long as those who need it get it what does it really matter!
Tim
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 15:39

We will get some.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 16:21

Increasing cloud all day, very dark to our NW earlier, dumped its load west of Esk & only light rain atm. Lovely sound & smell.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 16:21

Good news for out west happy to miss out if farmers out west can get it
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 16:48

Yeah, well Iím hoping today wasnít the day. One model is going for tomorrow for us so weíll see. Iíd really hoped it would be more widespread out west for the farmers and nsw, at least to build up some moisture for a future event. Fingers crossed itís just later than expected.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 16:53

Originally Posted By: Lani
Yeah, well Iím hoping today wasnít the day. One model is going for tomorrow for us so weíll see. Iíd really hoped it would be more widespread out west for the farmers and nsw, at least to build up some moisture for a future event. Fingers crossed itís just later than expected.

The consensus for awhile among most models for the timing of the main rainfall your area has been for tomorrow morning. It doesn't look like lasting that long though - basically short and sharp so accumulations probably won't be that big unless you're lucky enough to get under a thunderstorm. There may be some activity leading up to it though.

Looks fairly dry for awhile after this system clears out except perhaps for the end of next week.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 19:45

Well a few days ago i would never of belived the radar would look like it does now
Nothing ness
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 19:50

Fairly cool night here cloud cover minimal. I get the feeling that the setup looks right but the surface temp is still mild being still winter. There looks to be no caping at all with the profiles will be interesting to see whats happening tomorrow morning. Abit hesitant to look at too much more data as there does not seem to be a bullseye it could be anywhere.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 21:16

Yup, the activity out west looks to be dying off a bit too. Not sure if this is a night thing or what, but I can now see us receiving almost nothing from this event. Still waiting for our first measurable rain for August 2018.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 21:19

Most of the models Iíve seen this afternoon still suggest around 10 to 30mm for many locations in SE QLD although some locations could get significantly more or less than that depending on embedded convection.
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 21:22

Tomorrow was always going to be the day we would get the most rain especially the morning to early afternoon.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 25/08/2018 22:42

The coastal storms / heavier showers along parts of the north coast overnight brought some decent localised falls. Yamba received the most with 72mm. The Coffs Harbour area also did well with gauges around there recording over 50mm.
4.0mm in the 24hrs to 9am here from light rain at times last night.
Tomorrow's passing rainband looks like bringing anything from around 5 to 20mm here, depending on whether we only get light rain or are in the path of moderate rain.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 07:22

Morning all, 5mm overnight and more to come I hope. Was counting on 20mm so we dont need to buy water.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 07:46

Rain Hasn't stopped all night and into the morning on the Gold Coast.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 07:47

*waves* The rains is here. Hmm.

Anyway, forgive my apparent absolute ignorance but wouldn't now be the optimum time to seed clouds?
I know there's the theory around previous floods etc & I refuse to talk politics on this; but from a scientific perspective only, wouldn't seeding offer more precip to at least someone? We haven't had viable clouds much until now, I'm not sure I understand the reluctance.
As I said - no politics please, just factual answers.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 07:51

You could be right there Kazz I'm no expert but they do in other countries.
Posted by: Rod H

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 07:55

Kazz . Have a look at this article. It gives a very good account of the reasons it was stopped by the CSIRO. It just was not very successful.

http://www.ecosmagazine.com/?act=view_file&file_id=EC32p23.pdf
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 08:04

Yeah Rod, I have read that before but will go back & read it again in case I've missed something.
But I'm not suggesting it as a recurring thing, but as a one-off hail mary if they can find the right kind of cloud masses.
Because at the moment the only thing we can do is the 'hail mary' loads of hay & money - they won't solve the problem either but probably cost just as much as a cloud seeding exercise. At least with cloud seeding, the results are a little more residual until Mother Nature kicks in.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 08:06

7.5mm overnight
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 08:14

Some cloud seeding offshore at the moment.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 08:16

Doubled our event total last night here at Salisbury.....an extra 4.7mm overnight brings us to 9.4mm total.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 08:55

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 11.6mm, event total 12.6mm.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 10:41

No storms today with all that cloud Cover. Can't complain one bit though nice drop of rain round here about 50mls so far
Posted by: Petros

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 10:44

Yesterday (Saturday) at 13:12 hrs critical power lines tripped between Dumaresq and Bulli, creating havoc across the National Electricity Grid.

Was storm or heavy rain occurring at either of these locations at the time?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 10:47

Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
No storms today with all that cloud Cover. Can't complain one bit though nice drop of rain round here about 50mls so far

There might still be some areas which do get thunderstorms today despite the current cloud cover. There's fairly good dynamics with this system which may contribute to some embedded thunderstorm activity within (and possibly near or behind the rear edge) of the cloud band during today with the instability.
There's already been some isolated lightning detected to our north.

One of those situations where cloud cover doesn't necessarily dampen down all activity.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 11:11

Wow must be unstable alright!Very cool and overcast with 100pcent cloud cover here I guess in places that have breaks in the cloud cover stand a chance as ya said Ken.Also an amendment to the rain totals here our rain gauge is near the garden and my wife tells me she gave the garden a soaking 4 days ago so it's anybody's guess the rain totals here
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 11:31

23mm here overnight
30mm for the event
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 11:32

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
No storms today with all that cloud Cover. Can't complain one bit though nice drop of rain round here about 50mls so far

There might still be some areas which do get thunderstorms today despite the current cloud cover. There's fairly good dynamics with this system which may contribute to some embedded thunderstorm activity within (and possibly near or behind the rear edge) of the cloud band during today with the instability.
There's already been some isolated lightning detected to our north.

One of those situations where cloud cover doesn't necessarily dampen down all activity.



Ken where is the dryline though? I'm presuming storms can still form east of the dryline?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 11:54

Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
No storms today with all that cloud Cover. Can't complain one bit though nice drop of rain round here about 50mls so far

There might still be some areas which do get thunderstorms today despite the current cloud cover. There's fairly good dynamics with this system which may contribute to some embedded thunderstorm activity within (and possibly near or behind the rear edge) of the cloud band during today with the instability.
There's already been some isolated lightning detected to our north.

One of those situations where cloud cover doesn't necessarily dampen down all activity.



Ken where is the dryline though? I'm presuming storms can still form east of the dryline?


There's no really pronounced dryline in our area at the moment (may become more pronounced later) although there is a narrow dry slot over the NWSP in NSW wrapping into the northern flank of the system - in the combined satellite/lightning/dewpoints obs/surface wind analysis below via Weatherzone, you can see a band of thunderstorms between that dry slot (marked by the lower dewpoints) and the area of slightly more moist but unstable air wrapping around the rear flank of the system. These storms are in the somewhat clearer air behind the main cloudband but there's still instability there helped by the cold air aloft lingering in that area associated with the low:


Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 12:26

Plenty of pea size hail or smaller here. Strong winds to begin with. 25mm. Great little storm for August. But now it's back to dry dry dry again.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 13:08

Thanks Ken much appreciated
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 13:12

Definitely thx Ken, love ya work and the maps, they make all the difference to us novices.
Posted by: gberg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 13:51

Had a nice little storm here at home. A quick fire 30mm.. still more stuff building to the west
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 14:34

So is that it or is the front still got to pass
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 14:36

Who let the sun out?
10.5mm, calm, warm & humid with lots of fluffy darkish clouds moving eastish.
Maybe enough heat to cook something up?
Posted by: signalman

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 14:51

Slightly less Elf with 10mm total here in north-east Warwick. Better than nothing of course but will have a net worth of nothing without immediate follow-up. Good to see better falls in other areas.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 16:05

No worries DDstorm and gleno

Some localised lightning moving across the far southern Granite Belt as I speak and a bit of activity moving down towards the northern Sunshine Coast but the window of opportunity for any further cells closer to Brisbane is rapidly shrinking.

Could be dense fog suddenly forming in some parts of the region this evening in the post-rain environment but a lot of it may clear out by tomorrow morning as the drier air pushes through.

Still on track for some pretty cold min temps by Thursday followed by much warmer than normal max temps towards the end of the week.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 16:09

Just an extra 1.6mm from todays showers, brings it to 11.0mm event total here at Salisbury. Good to read elsewhere of some places out West receiving between 25 - 40mm
Posted by: pabloako

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 17:21

A welcome 14mm here, which has lowered the bushfire rating for a bit, plus topped up the tanks a small amount.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 19:40

The last hoorah comin over the Springbrook plateau.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 19:40

Nice short sharp lightning-active line heading towards the Gold Coast as I type (WZ radar/lightning/satpic imagery):


Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 19:47

Nice sync Ken, minor rumble in the SW.
I think it'll head to TWEEDSTORM........ bugga
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 20:32

Nah nothing much here Dstorm bit of a shower and that's about it the adrenal glands from this system are just about clapped out. Lookin forward to some real spring storms soon.
Posted by: PlumbBob

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 21:13

Chalk one up for the Border corners 20-30mm goodness
Awesome early fresh spring air ...
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 21:58

Stand corrected. Steady continuous drizzle for at least and hr. Just what the doctor ordered. The active action petered out not long after my last post. 51 official mm's for the 3 day's. Tank has 4k ltrs in that time. Thankyou rain gods.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 26/08/2018 22:01

4.8mm in the 24hrs to 9am from a few passing showers overnight moving in off the ocean.
Today's rainband brought 3.0mm.

11.8mm for the event here (4.0 + 4.8 + 3.0). Most other places about the local area only getting about 1 to 5mm in total for the event though.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 27/08/2018 06:30

17mm here all up. Was nice to see kids riding bikes through puddles again.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 27/08/2018 07:52

Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 10.4mm. Event total 23.2mm.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 27/08/2018 08:51

Hi all,I got 10.2 mm for this event .Not much, But further west and around and around got better rain . Some follow up rain would be nice for the farmers .
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 27/08/2018 09:08

Total of 9.5mm for the event here in west Warwick.
Posted by: redbucket

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Upper Low / Trough - Rain and isolated thunderstorms - 24th to 26th August 2018 - 27/08/2018 09:37

We received a further 9mm yesterday to take our event total to a very unexpected, and incredibly selfish 82mm.

Still can't believe we have a full tank.

Went for a run in Lowood yesterday, and RD/Brightview and out towards Lowood looked very damp. Plenty of standing water, full (small) dams, and evidence of some overland flow during Friday nights' downpour.