SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018

Posted by: Seabreeze

SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 03/10/2018 23:01

From later tomorrow (Oct 4th), areas of rain, showers and thunderstorms should begin to affect the SEQLD/NENSW region courtesy of a low/trough combo.
There are indications that this unsettled weather could persist for sometime, and so if necessary, the dates of this thread can be extended.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 04/10/2018 09:37

Looks like some light rain coming for me would be nice.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 04/10/2018 12:30

Looking forward to what the next few days bring, even if it is just a bit of rain.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 04/10/2018 13:14

Hmmm, though there would be more activity here.
Certainly looks like a bit of action rollin in. Anyone got the guff?
Posted by: PlumbBob

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 04/10/2018 14:19

Cool, looking like another very noice week ahead & great to see some nsw wettings atm..
Appears betterra Li's for seqld mid next week, 'only time will tell, Wont knock anything back next couple days/nights cool
Let the fun begin ...
Posted by: Sillybanter

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 04/10/2018 14:51

Interesting watching this move through western NSW and seeing very nice totals under the storms. 30- 40mm with a couple over 50mm and even one report of 100mm. With nearly zero moisture feed into this system from the NE yet it is dropping some surprising numbers. Lets hope its a sign of things to come.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 04/10/2018 17:39

Dripping here, lovely dark clouds to the NW.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 04/10/2018 18:15

Interesting national radar at the moment, looks like twin systems east and west
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 04/10/2018 18:29

Nice bit of rain out here, lot of cloud to cloud lightning 15.3 mm of rain .Happy with that .Not happy with the anemometer bearing seized again every 3 years .Think i will try to pull the old spare one apart and see if i can find a bearing for it .Seems the dust kills them i think.Its not water lol .I will have a look and see.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 04/10/2018 19:08

Good stuff Doug, glad you can get some obs.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 04/10/2018 19:33

Originally Posted By: ozone doug
Nice bit of rain out here, lot of cloud to cloud lightning 15.3 mm of rain .Happy with that .Not happy with the anemometer bearing seized again every 3 years .Think i will try to pull the old spare one apart and see if i can find a bearing for it .Seems the dust kills them i think.Its not water lol .I will have a look and see.

Glad to hear you got rain. I respect your willingness to tackle moving parts in weather instruments. That skill is dying art☔️
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 04/10/2018 19:41

Sat water vapour
https://weather.us/satellite/1483-e-265-s/satellite-water-vapor-10min.html#play2
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 04/10/2018 19:43

Happy that there is some rain about your way ozone doug, a bit of lightning, some thunder with spits earlier here but that was all.
Stapy not showing much now,have to wait until tomorrow now.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 04/10/2018 20:30

I'm surprised were not getting the rain by now when you consider what Sydney is copping at the moment and were in a more warmer enviroment
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 04/10/2018 22:01

Distant thunder heard earlier this evening. 3.4mm here from light rain which began in the early evening.

Originally Posted By: gleno71
I'm surprised were not getting the rain by now when you consider what Sydney is copping at the moment and were in a more warmer enviroment
There is a developing low off the Sydney/Hunter Coast which is helping to bring all the rain down there.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 04/10/2018 22:16

I left Cunnumulla this morning around 9.30 a.m in a nice little thunderstorm, plenty of thunder and lightning action occurring there after a night of showers that didn't drop a huge amount of rain, but enough to settle the dust....hopefully they got some decent rain from the storm. Drove through areas on way to St George that had obviously gotten better falls overnight, arrived in St George on the tail of some decent rain having fallen there. Supposed to be camped the night South of Nindigully tonight, but after seeing thier Facebook page and how much rain they got at Nindigully today we canned that idea, would be a mudhole about those parts currently. Driving through Gatton around 7.15 p.m tonight I struggled to see where I was driving at times in the downpour occurring there.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 10:08

Wynnum Nth 0955 - Few spots.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 10:14

Good soaking down here. I believe over 30mm down in Stanthorpe and surrounding areas. Here, we have had less, but by looking at the gauge, we have had over 20mm with steady rain still falling. A few rumbles also around 0230 during a brief heavy rain event. Looks like they have upped the rain amounts during the mid part of next week. Things are looking up.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 10:53

Good to see some rain your way at last Warwick, not real impressed with the direction all this is going. Hope we get something next day or so up here.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 11:26

If we don't get something today I'll eat my hat quite a bit of heat down here that cool dry seabreeze has died off and sky looking more and more interesting as the day is progressing
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 11:46

With all this cloud cover about and the rain band coming through, does it lessen our chances of storms this afternoon?

Not sure if they were meant to be discreet systems or embedded in the rain.
Posted by: Flippy

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 12:53

Yep, starting to feel like less and less of a storm day as the afternoon wears on and the cloud cover increases. Maybe just patchy rain later on for Bris?
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 13:31

How quickly things can change it was looking interesting about an hour or 2 ago and now it's turned to crud just a spit and dribble here and there
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 13:33

Big write-off today. Patchy rain and embedded heavier showers looking like the most likely outcome now.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 14:12

Dribbles for us again, looks like a fail today. That tail coming in on the water vapour loop looking a bit intetesting out near Surat.
Posted by: signalman

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 14:28

Warwick Eye - total 21mm for this event in NE Warwick - 14mm to 9.00am and 7mm since 9.00am. You have no doubt faired better but based on our balances over the past few months you must be owed at least 15mm. Cheers.
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 14:52

Today was never going to be a storm day and wouldn't have a clue why bom put that in the forecast. Anyway ignored it all day and can see tomorrow being the same.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 14:56

Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Today was never going to be a storm day and wouldn't have a clue why bom put that in the forecast. Anyway ignored it all day and can see tomorrow being the same.

I've just driven from Ashgrove to Ferny Grove and I heard two rumbles of thunder when I was filling up with fuel just before I got to Ferny Grove smile
Posted by: Foehn Correspondent

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 15:38

Picking up some nice cracks of thunder from the cell approaching Brisbane from the north west. Hopefully some rain to come as well.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 15:43

Thunder to SW of us at 1540.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 15:59

Nice dark cell hanging and rumbling away over Bracken Ridge ATM. I wouldnít be surprised if there was more action later this evening for parts of SEQ.

2 STW issued by BoM .

1st
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in parts of Wide Bay and Burnett Forecast District.

Issued at 3:39 pm Friday, 5 October 2018.
Weather Situation:
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Cherbourg, Gayndah, Murgon, Mundubbera, Biggenden and Eidsvold.

2nd

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
for DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in parts of Gympie and South Burnett Council Areas.

Issued at 3:40 pm Friday, 5 October 2018.
Weather Situation:
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 3:45 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar.
Thunderstorms are moving towards the east.
They are forecast to affect Goomeri by 4:45 pm.
Damaging winds, heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and large hailstones are likely.
Posted by: SteveB93

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 16:00

A couple rumbles of thunder here and a little bit of rain starting to fall.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 16:15

Mowed the lawns, did the washin this mornin, anything to bring it on and finally got a bit of a down pour.
DD
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 16:40

Forecast update has gone up to 15-45 for tomorrow.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 17:11

Nothing here today except muggy air laugh
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 17:38

Thickening up on the 256k.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 17:48

Originally Posted By: Steve O
Thickening up on the 256k.


Yeah, if something was going to happen I think it was always more likely to be later tonight or overnight, probably more in the form of rain with embedded heavier falls though.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 17:55

Yea the shear is pretty flaccid..
Posted by: Ahab

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 18:08

2mm from an afternoon shower. According to radar it looks like something is brewing for tonight. Some 50mm rain event would really help. Not too much to ask for in my opinion.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 18:11

Originally Posted By: Steve O
Yea the shear is pretty flaccid..

Indeed, it doesn't usually pay off for us here near the coast when steering is weak and most of the action originates inland.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 18:11

I've been too busy with other things to check the setup in any great detail but did notice forecast soundings suggest the possibility of some training of shower activity & perhaps localised thunder developing near the coast from the overnight/early morning hours (due to an increasingly moist deep northerly flow from that time).

If that does happen, some lucky places directly under that activity may do well.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 18:16

Thanks Mad, yes, it is certainly nice to see a decent fall out here for a change. Nothing spectacular, but it was enough for now. Hope we have a nice follow up event within the next week or 10 days. I hope you also see a good fall out your way soon.
I agree Signalman, I am owed a bit more precip out on the west end. It will all balance out however I am sure. We had a total of 23mm out here today. About the same spread of falls you experienced.
Keep those upper level disturbances coming!
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 18:32

An exiting 3mm up here.Hopefully we'll get close to whats been forecast over the next 24hrs.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 19:28

Frustration - driving 2 1/2 hours in rain and it stops at my turn off 4km from home 😠
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 20:09

Must be an error.... Brighton has had 198mm since 9am
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 20:19

Originally Posted By: Blowin'
Must be an error.... Brighton has had 198mm since 9am


lol
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 21:53

Lookin rather nice on radar, really starting the fill in.
Love the sound of rain at night
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 22:10

Originally Posted By: DDstorm
Lookin rather nice on radar, really starting the fill in.
Love the sound of rain at night
hoping we get some of it soon....rained a smidge this arvo here but not enough to register in the gauge, and so far nothing tonight yet.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 22:57




The skies turned a bit dramatic here late this afternoon as this approached and moved over town. No lightning/thunder in it though, just heavy rain. 20.2mm since 9am.

Light rain brought 4.0mm in the 24hrs to 9am. There was distant thunder from storms offshore early this morning.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 23:18

Sounds, feels & smells great!
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 23:44

It's just diminishing as it comes over the range and then fills that line just off the Tweed.
That next bigger blob might deliver the goods.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 23:57

Stuff over the western 'burbs looks great.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 05/10/2018 23:58

11mm as I lock up, Gatton rain gauge must be faulty, no reading.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 00:30

Really cranked up here. Lightning and heavy rain. Radar shows intensification and Access-R suggests decent rain for hours to come.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 06:28

Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Today was never going to be a storm day and wouldn't have a clue why bom put that in the forecast. Anyway ignored it all day and can see tomorrow being the same.


Yes generally when its a overcast day, the big storms don't happen. I'm surprised the models by now don't pick up on this. GFS had overcast skies forecast days ago yet they went for storms as well. Having said that Murwillumbah copped a storm yesterday afternoon, so in that region the forecast was accurate. I remember Ken mentioning once the GFS storm cast on BSCH isn't entirely accurate. Does not seem to be much in the way of rain out west this morning. Maybe with broken cloud something might get going today.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 07:18

Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Today was never going to be a storm day and wouldn't have a clue why bom put that in the forecast. Anyway ignored it all day and can see tomorrow being the same.


Yes generally when its a overcast day, the big storms don't happen. I'm surprised the models by now don't pick up on this. GFS had overcast skies forecast days ago yet they went for storms as well. Having said that Murwillumbah copped a storm yesterday afternoon, so in that region the forecast was accurate. I remember Ken mentioning once the GFS storm cast on BSCH isn't entirely accurate. Does not seem to be much in the way of rain out west this morning. Maybe with broken cloud something might get going today.

P.S.

No model explicitly forecasts storms as such. The existence of storms has to be inferred from the existence of various ingredients such as instability and moisture. Simply looking at whether CAPE is above a certain value isnít a definitive way to tell whether a model is forecasting storms. The only exception is certain models that specifically model parameters such as lightning or when itís really obvious that a model is forecasting storms (distinct lumps or band of intense convective precip when instability is high). So in setups like yesterday where instability was fairly modest and it was a rainy showery mess, you can never be sure whether much of that precip was from storms or just from showers/rain areas.

As it turned out, I was lucky enough to get two separate rounds of loud thunder - one near Ferny Grove yesterday afternoon and another late last night while I was in Moorooka when that big mass of rain and embedded thunder came through.

P.S. great pics Seabreeze
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 07:21

6.6mm from steady showers here overnight.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 07:37

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..6 OCT 2018 TIME..0730

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......17.6C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........90%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........16C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED.....ESE 7Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1018.5HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........8/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........3.2mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......26.5C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....15.7
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...15.6C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....12C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1016.8Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..NW 30kph at 1012
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Storms to W and NW in afternoon before a weak storm passed overhead late at night.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 07:49

Very welcome 12.5mm out here so far & continuing light rain.
Posted by: Sandstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 08:10

13mm since 9-00am yesterday. Certainly thunder out our way yesterday arvo.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 08:30

Nothing overly exciting down this way a few rumbles over night which was nice.Looks like more of the cloudy crappy overcast stuff again today
Posted by: Foehn Correspondent

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 08:47

We had a storm yesterday afternoon with a couple of good rumbles of thunder but very little rain. Overnight 16.5 mm.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 08:55

Today has that cloudy look to it and forcast temps don't look like getting upto 25c which is sort of disappointing as there is some instability. GfS has been showing and area of better CAPE south of Gympie for some time. The vertical shear is probably still on the weaker side but profiles are still backing with height. Multi model has abit of interest today and precip looks more SW, think it will be much the same as to what we've already had. So I'm just gonna go put on a limb today and look somewhere west of Brisbane and see what happens virtually.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 09:13

10.3mm overnight here at Salisbury.
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 09:14

27mm overnight for me. This is about my total for the past 4 months so I'm pretty stoked!
Posted by: Ahab

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 09:18

Solid 19mm here. Please give us the same for tonight.
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 09:45

8.4mm and a few rumbles here o'nite. Very humid, overcast morning with light misting rain at times here. Storm or not, I'm hanging out for a proper heavy downpour to really get the ground soaked and the tanks full.
Posted by: Wight

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 10:45

3mm overnight. There are rumbles to the south and it's raining everywhere around me but not here. Frustrating. Need a bit more to fill the tanks.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 10:52

My tank is bordering on MT and needs 90mm to fill it. 3mm for event to date.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 11:11

We managed 8.5mm late last night. Thank goodness.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 11:40

Rumbles of thunder over Bracken Ridge at 1116. Just did a few odd jobs and the humidity Is pretty high and feels pretty warm although hovering just above 21įC.

I am not concerned over the cloud cover much anymore. Cloudless hot days are the best but I am actually trying to remember the last pure cloudless day with a massive green/ purple and black wall cloud approaching. The days when you would be standing there and you could feel cold air 2-3 feet above the ground feeding into the storm . But over the decades of chasing and observing, the old cloud covered day destroys chances of a good storm have been busted for me. Many times on this forum I have related the storm of 2003. Very thick cloud cover, everyone was laughing at me as regards to storms. We were soaked from the humidity and it was only around 23 -24įC, we were building a 2 storey at Petrie on Pine when we were hit with a gang buster of a storm that picked up builders material and threw it everywhere around 1300. .

Now rainning. Just have to see how it pans out. Beerwah cell is very lightning active. SkewT has a lot of moisture but it wouldnít take much for something to fire.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 11:50

Yep exactly Colin, cloud cover isnít always the be-all and end-all.
Although it can reduce the extent and severity of thunderstorms, it usually has to be pretty thick and last all through the day to prevent all storms from forming. If the atmosphereís unstable enough (especially when high moisture levels increase the instability), all it takes is a few breaks in the cloud or a partial clearance by early afternoon for storms to fire up.
There was one particularly memorable case I still remember to this day like it was yesterday was one very cool (barely reached 20C) day back in around 2013 when thick gloomy overcast conditions lasted all day with drizzle... yet the dynamical forcing from an approaching shortwave caused a huge squall line to sweep across our region with spectacular lightning, thunder and heavy rain.
On the other hand, if instability and moisture isnít enough, persistent thick cloud cover can win the day and prevent storms.
Not sure if thatíll be the case today (I havenít looked at the setup yet) but there already has been a few storms in northern parts this morning.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 12:33

Agreed about the humidity Colin, just went and tidied the shed and it felt like 30 degrees with the humidity. I was surprised to see the temp at 19 here when I looked.

Let us know your thoughts when you do look deeper into the conditions Ken, keen to hear what you think.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 12:36

Good heavy shower earlier. Nice looking dark clouds building as well to the NW, more to come I think.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 12:54

By the sounds of those black clouds to the south of us, Ellesmere is getting the afternoon's activities started.
I read these pages yesterday & had a good chuckle at the early season naysayers practising their doom & glooms. Pouring rain outside & people on here were saying how nothing would happen, it's all over etc etc.
You only had to look at the radar & see the movement of the rain to see it would be down Brisbane way in the middle of the night.
But again there's this focus here of just looking at Brisbane; because if it doesn't happen in Brisbane, it doesn't exist apparently.Where do you think your weather comes from?

And Ken I hope your post knocks some of the "no sun/ no rain" mentality on the head. Seriously,way too much emphasis is put on that one.

Anyway, it is great to see the moisture in the atmosphere; let's all go back to school days now. Remember the simplistic water in the atmosphere picture? It falls it evaporates & goes up then it falls again???
The atmosphere has missed out on the water ingredient in that picture for a while but now it is slowly but surely entering the atmospheric system again. The slow but steady falls we've had so far are being absorbed into the parched land. And that's important that it's slow enough to be absorbed rather than run off in flash floods etc.
I'm happy for the slow & steady; it's the only way this land is going to recuperate. Keep your storm season on the coast and in Brisbane if that's what you value.Because let's face it, you're not really "in drought" down there are you?
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 13:29

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Good heavy shower earlier. Nice looking dark clouds building as well to the NW, more to come I think.
we just add 4.9mm to our total from this lot of dark clouds

Posted by: Ahab

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 13:31

Heavy shower just went through. Now the Sun is out. Humid and conductive conditions IMO.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 14:02

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Yep exactly Colin, cloud cover isnít always the be-all and end-all.
Although it can reduce the extent and severity of thunderstorms, it usually has to be pretty thick and last all through the day to prevent all storms from forming. If the atmosphereís unstable enough (especially when high moisture levels increase the instability), all it takes is a few breaks in the cloud or a partial clearance by early afternoon for storms to fire up.
There was one particularly memorable case I still remember to this day like it was yesterday was one very cool (barely reached 20C) day back in around 2013 when thick gloomy overcast conditions lasted all day with drizzle... yet the dynamical forcing from an approaching shortwave caused a huge squall line to sweep across our region with spectacular lightning, thunder and heavy rain.
On the other hand, if instability and moisture isnít enough, persistent thick cloud cover can win the day and prevent storms.
Not sure if thatíll be the case today (I havenít looked at the setup yet) but there already has been a few storms in northern parts this morning.



Not sure if this is the day you were referring to Ken. It was a humdinger for sure .

See : 128km Radar Loop for Brisbane, 09:00 15/09/2013 to 04:00 17/09/2013 UTC
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 14:11

Thanks Kazz63 ,we'll all subscribe to your gospels in future then
Posted by: DNO

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 14:23

I just got 5mm from a downpour at lunchtime. 17mm yesterday and a total of 71mm for the last fortnight. smile
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 14:31

Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Yep exactly Colin, cloud cover isnít always the be-all and end-all.
Although it can reduce the extent and severity of thunderstorms, it usually has to be pretty thick and last all through the day to prevent all storms from forming. If the atmosphereís unstable enough (especially when high moisture levels increase the instability), all it takes is a few breaks in the cloud or a partial clearance by early afternoon for storms to fire up.
There was one particularly memorable case I still remember to this day like it was yesterday was one very cool (barely reached 20C) day back in around 2013 when thick gloomy overcast conditions lasted all day with drizzle... yet the dynamical forcing from an approaching shortwave caused a huge squall line to sweep across our region with spectacular lightning, thunder and heavy rain.
On the other hand, if instability and moisture isnít enough, persistent thick cloud cover can win the day and prevent storms.
Not sure if thatíll be the case today (I havenít looked at the setup yet) but there already has been a few storms in northern parts this morning.



Not sure if this is the day you were referring to Ken. It was a humdinger for sure .

See : 128km Radar Loop for Brisbane, 09:00 15/09/2013 to 04:00 17/09/2013 UTC


I remember that. It was a cold and miserable day. People on here, myself included, had given up on storms for the day.

Still, I've seen many excellent storm days limited by cloud cover. You can still get storm activity, just not anywhere near as severe.
Posted by: Foehn Correspondent

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 14:38

Does that line of storms and showers from Blackbutt to about Boonah appear to be moving in a more easterly direction than the rest of the weather?
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 14:46

I was about to mention that, let's see if it survives the transit over the range.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 15:22

Great totals Adam Ant. Also glad to see you had a bit of the wet stuff out your way Mad. Looks like more instability your way, so you might not be done yet?
Only 1mm here since we had the 23mm yesterday. Cells around but appear to be slow movers with an overall weakening trend noted. Had a nice heavy cell slide just south of here at 1300 today. Good rumbles too. This beats a heatwave high sitting over our heads for sure. Nice coolish days feel nice as well.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 15:31

Storm tracker is lighting up quite nicely ATM and also with the squall line, just over Sommerset , it is showing a bit of rotation on the radar and also Doppler. Just need to see if has the steam to keep going and get a bit of a boot as it reaches the inflow from the bay.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 15:35

Fair amount of scud cloud drifting inland into the storm.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 15:38

The cell heading towards South Brisbane looks like a better shot to me, the one near somerset looks to be breaking up and weakening.

Happy to be wrong though smile
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 16:08

25mm event total so far, plenty thunder Esk way earlier.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 16:33

Looking at the latest Satellite The clouds seem to be going in all different directions in different locations and its very confusing. I thought you get strong shear when we have a upper low?
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 16:40

Webcam from Wamuran and Chappel Hill showing multi directional layered flows.

http://www.weathercamnetwork.com.au/time...=pm&cam=wamuran

http://www.weathercamnetwork.com.au/time...cam=chapel_hill
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 16:46

Storm just hitting us at Bracken Ridge at 16:46, some more rain would be nice just to green things up a bit more.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 18:33

TS Wynnum Nth 1833. Passage of trough ???
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 06/10/2018 22:34

21.8mm in the 24hrs to 9am here.
A couple of brief showers moved through this afternoon bringing 1.6mm.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 07/10/2018 08:54

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..7 OCT 2018 TIME..0740

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......19.1C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........81%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........16C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED.....SSE 9Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1020.6HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........40KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........3/8 cloud, decreasing.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........4.6mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......23.0C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....15.0
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...14.1C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....16C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1018.3Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 17kph at 1123
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Periods of slight rain. Brief TS 1833 assw passage of trough, then rain cleared.


Event total 7.8mm.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 07/10/2018 09:23

Event total for Salisbury sitting at 14.2mm
Posted by: Sandstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 07/10/2018 09:47

28mm since 9.00 am yesterday
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 07/10/2018 10:17

Clear skies greets us today, hopefully a better chance of storms developing this afternoon
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 07/10/2018 10:46

Event total 42mm. This is more than I have had in the past 5 months. Brilliant start to October
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 07/10/2018 10:46

Still doesn't look like anything special, ie storm chances today.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 07/10/2018 11:59

Originally Posted By: Steve O
Still doesn't look like anything special, ie storm chances today.


Bom saying chance of storms in the west. I think steering winds still weak
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 07/10/2018 12:15

Suns out here & warming up. Still feels humid, calm, 23.5C. Plenty dark cloud about though.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 07/10/2018 17:30

Things starting later than usual today; but things are definitely starting again.
Deep rumbles all around here, VERY dark for this time of day .
We won't get much, but it'll build as it moves on to the bright lights of civilisation no doubt.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 07/10/2018 17:52

Deep rumbles to our south and west. Here's hoping.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 07/10/2018 17:52

*Note to self, never say " we won't get much' when the cells are still growing.
Quite a good solid downpour with some strong wind gusts as well.
In fact it is bucketing down in Kingaroy at the moment.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 07/10/2018 18:16

Yes Kazz, looking good for east Kingaroy! The cell here is still rumbling but has slid south. Not a fast mover so I wouldn't be surprised to see a good inch out of this one. Not much else developing so better luck tomorrow for us.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 07/10/2018 18:40

Yeah I think somewhere from Caboolture to Caloundra will be getting wet this arvo.
The one below you eye2sky looks a treat.Both these cells moving & changing as they go, that'll keep 'em guessing lol
Posted by: Snowmaker

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 07/10/2018 18:58

Decent hook echo on that Nanango/Kingaroy storm now. Probably a pretty intense little cell going off its southerly movement, as well as a detailed warning from BOM
Posted by: Flippy

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 07/10/2018 20:58

Interesting few days coming up, Wednesday looks like the best day of the lot, timing of the southerly change being a big focus. Looking forward to reading the input from the more experienced gurus in the house. Cheers! 👍
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 07/10/2018 21:29

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Yep exactly Colin, cloud cover isnít always the be-all and end-all.
Although it can reduce the extent and severity of thunderstorms, it usually has to be pretty thick and last all through the day to prevent all storms from forming. If the atmosphereís unstable enough (especially when high moisture levels increase the instability), all it takes is a few breaks in the cloud or a partial clearance by early afternoon for storms to fire up.
There was one particularly memorable case I still remember to this day like it was yesterday was one very cool (barely reached 20C) day back in around 2013 when thick gloomy overcast conditions lasted all day with drizzle... yet the dynamical forcing from an approaching shortwave caused a huge squall line to sweep across our region with spectacular lightning, thunder and heavy rain.
On the other hand, if instability and moisture isnít enough, persistent thick cloud cover can win the day and prevent storms.
Not sure if thatíll be the case today (I havenít looked at the setup yet) but there already has been a few storms in northern parts this morning.



Not sure if this is the day you were referring to Ken. It was a humdinger for sure .

See : 128km Radar Loop for Brisbane, 09:00 15/09/2013 to 04:00 17/09/2013 UTC


I remember that. It was a cold and miserable day. People on here, myself included, had given up on storms for the day.

Still, I've seen many excellent storm days limited by cloud cover. You can still get storm activity, just not anywhere near as severe.


Yep I think that was the one Colin! It's a classic benchmark to this day in terms of the storms vs cloud cover battle.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 07/10/2018 21:59

Agreed Flippy, Wed currently looks to be the pick of the lot but as you mentioned, it's highly dependent on the timing of the change (among other things).
If everything lined up well enough (sunny morning skies would help as well as the temps reaching the low to mid 30's away from the coast), I wouldn't rule out the chance of one or two of the storms becoming severe with strong winds (and bursts of locally intense rainfall in areas where moisture is better).

From Mon to Wed, instability is moderate but shear is strong so this could help with the strength of some of the storms.... and good SW to W steering winds aloft should help steer storms closer towards parts of the coast.
Tue may be a bit suppressed in southern parts with capping in some parts as well as possible patchy high or midlevel cloud streaming across although maybe not enough to stop storms altogether.
We wait to see if any of the usual potential complicating factors such as premature activity, excessive cloud cover from previous activity, the seabreeze not penetrating over land enough, etc will play a part.

Inland areas away from the coast look like seeing temps reaching right up to the low to mid 30's by midweek before plummeting almost 10C by the next day after the gusty cooler change surges through,

Later in the week, the combo of a wind convergence zone (the remnants of the coastal wind change) and a moist onshore flow from the Coral Sea feeding into an upper level trough over inland QLD could cause showers & rain areas to develop around southern-central parts of the state with moderate falls.
At this stage, some forecasts have the better rainfall occurring to the north of SEQ while some have the better amounts extending further south into SE QLD/NE NSW so we'll have to wait and see what happens with that.

Current 10-day accumulated rainfall scenario from EC (some of that rainfall in our region is from lumpy showers & storms during the first half of this week):


Posted by: Foehn Correspondent

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 07/10/2018 22:13

Thanks Ken - your analysis is always welcome.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 07/10/2018 22:18

Well, we missed that cell to the south Kazz, but we just caught the edge of this last one a few minutes ago. 5 min of heavy rain and 1 massive CG along with good rumbles. We live up on a hill, so I can see out to our west. I was looking out the window when that CG hit. It was about 5 blocks away. Right after that, a massive orange glow could be seen. I realised it was flames from something burning. Not sure what it was, but it certainly went up quickly.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 08:44

Starting to get excited about Wednesday's storm prospects. There are some things I don't like about the set-up but it's still looking very promising. BOM has forecast of possibly severe storms 24 hours out and all models have a major precipitation signal riding the change in the late afternoon/evening.

I'll wait till 00z GFS this afternoon before posting my thoughts.
Posted by: grayarea

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 08:49

Well we have had a very wet start to October here in Buderim with 170mm since start of month. Heavy downpours from slow moving showers being characteristic.
1/10 82mm
6/10 3mm
7/10 42mm
8/10 43mm
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 08:59

I gotta say, this weather is very surprising considering we are bordering el nino. I would have thought of much drier weather, so i think we are extremely lucky so far. The great escape so far (on the coast )
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 09:18

10.5mm total last night. We had another brief downpour at 2300 with one good rumble. Sky this morning already looking unstable. Increased rain chances for the next 7 days. Yes, although we have not had a blockbuster rain event here yet, things are looking up!
Looks like it was one of those tall palm trees that was struck last night. Looked like a Roman candle with the dead palm leaves burning at the base.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 09:49

Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
I gotta say, this weather is very surprising considering we are bordering el nino. I would have thought of much drier weather, so i think we are extremely lucky so far. The great escape so far (on the coast )


If you look at normal rainfall patterns for an el nino, the dry is strongest in winter and starts to moderate from Spring, starting from NSW and SEQ coast. Sep-Nov has a strip of normal rainfall along most of the NSW coast and up into the southern end of Gold Coast.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 11:36

Looks ominously black to the SW.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 12:55

Shear starting to improve
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 13:19

STW out for the cell that you mentioned before Mad Elf, did you get anything out of it?

Kilcoy is next up for that one atm.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 13:23

Nah, not much rain but blenty of thunder C.F.
Gatton atm, plenty more clouds building to the SW.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 13:30

Gee theyve started very early.
Will this be a sign of good storm outbreak later or will this activity stuff things up
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 13:36

a lot better than yesterday that's for sure, feels a lot warmer and humid
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 14:04

Clouds don't look right for storms reaching the coast to me. Models show reasonable sheer, SW steering winds and instability highest near the coast, which I'd think is good for reaching coast. There might be ridging near the coast and sinking air?
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 14:08

Generally its better if storms travel to the coast the only thing that probably keeps things moderate is the instability but I reckon shear is more important.
Posted by: Foehn Correspondent

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 14:38

I am just south of that small cell sitting between Brisbane City and Boondall. Sun out here but picking up a few rumbles of thunder from that cell.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 14:38

Nice storm just popped up over Bracken Ridge. Some good cracks of thunder out of it already. Very quickly forming.

2 STW warnings for southern QLD but they don't have the storms reaching the Bay. They may have to re-evaluate shortly.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 14:51

First crack for me for the season, well witnessed anyway.
Posted by: Blinky_Bill

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 14:52

Big cracks of Thunder, First decent one for the season.
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 15:10

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Clouds don't look right for storms reaching the coast to me. Models show reasonable sheer, SW steering winds and instability highest near the coast, which I'd think is good for reaching coast. There might be ridging near the coast and sinking air?


i dunno. buderim looks alright atm.
grin
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 15:12

Another CLEVELAND miss
Posted by: WeatherNut96

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 15:15

Originally Posted By: tsunami
Another CLEVELAND miss

Feeling your pain tsunami, i watch them dissapate before they hit us frown
The force field still holding strong
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 15:15

Lol
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 15:22

Update on STW especially for Sunshine Coast

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
for DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in parts of Sunshine Coast Council Area.

Issued at 2:07 pm Monday, 8 October 2018.
Weather Situation:
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 2:05 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near Maleny and Montville.
These thunderstorms are moving towards the northeast.
They are forecast to affect Palmwoods and Nambour by 2:35 pm and Mapleton and Yandina by 3:05 pm.
Damaging winds, heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and large hailstones are likely.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 15:26

Nice cracks to our west and very black, looks good on radar
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 15:37

Originally Posted By: one drop
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Clouds don't look right for storms reaching the coast to me. Models show reasonable sheer, SW steering winds and instability highest near the coast, which I'd think is good for reaching coast. There might be ridging near the coast and sinking air?


i dunno. buderim looks alright atm.
grin


No rain here at Sippy and clearly passed north now. Lucky guess with my first statement? I think it was the type of setup that we needed a line of storms extending to the coast to get something here. For cases were storms can come out of the west towards us there is something different about the sky, but I'm not sure if I can put my finger on it. Maybe its as simple as sheer direction and what direction the mid level clouds are tilting.
Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 15:43

Skirted by Springwood with just a sprinkle.

Did see a couple of nice CGs though.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 15:53

Track path for latest warning

https://m.imgur.com/gallery/hV5Urro
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 15:55

Certainly coming down here now, flange, crack, bang. No wind though, but very close, be lucky if there's a second between flash and bang.

And of course, schools out in 5
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 15:59

Not sure if I'm willing to call it a day at 3pm.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 16:06

WBB getting the goods but.
Posted by: Lewis

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 16:07

Looks like the GC is getting quite a bit of heavy rain, nothing severe according to the BOM though. Look at that storm near Tewantin go though - black core for the past half hour.

Missed out here - wondering if the storms which came through have taken the edge off here, or if there is more to come.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 16:07

Nothin heading your way at present Steve O
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 16:09

Unless of course you're not in Beenleigh and somewhere else??
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 16:09

Cracking thunderstorm down here at Elanora found a nice Park to watch this cloud to ground lightning.Awesome stuff it's got the locals running I can tell ya !
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 16:09

All good I'm overseas for a week as of tomorrow..
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 16:12



That storm up the Coast has just been classified as a VDS

I wouldn't right things of at 1500 either, in fact 1500 is usually our peak storm time as it is the hottest part of the day, in Seq the majority of our storms fire off between 1500 - 1900 but as with most things there are exceptions to the rules. Mother nature will do what she wants when she wants.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 16:30

Too late to write anything off here... this small storm near Logan sure packed a lot of lightning and thunder for its size! Lots of clear-air bolts spitting out of it before:


Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 16:36

Nice little wall cloud/ pedestal cloud or being technical, murus cloud you caught there Ken. I thought I better be a little technical after using the wrong right, I should of used write off in my previous post crazy
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 16:57

We had a great storm down this end.Heavy rain lots of CGs and loud bangs of thunder.All clearing now but very exciting afternoon all in all
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 17:19

Absolutely, tanks full, pools full, road full, it's all happening.
Posted by: gberg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 17:20

Got some nice shots of the storm just to the west of tewantin which i will post later. Thankfully it weakened a bit as we bailed to boreen point. Just had some heavy rain and a few pea sized stones
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 17:39

Thats 2 storms we just missed out on. They are still building west of Gatton, maybe 3rd time lucky?
Great pic Ken!
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 18:11

Awesome pic Ken. Would have loved to be there watching the bolts from the blue! Great storm structure.
On another note, I thought the Carindale/Capalaba/Cleveland area was suppose to be storm central? They have seemed to miss a few lately.
Nothing here yet. Much more stable feel to the air as compared to yesterday. Who knows, maybe another surprise night storm is in the offing....
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 18:21

Bit of black in that big cell near Marburg.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 19:02

That cell killed the Marburg radar lol
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 19:05

Another cell just passing over the Northside. STW out for it.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
for DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAILSTONES and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in parts of Ipswich, Somerset, Lockyer Valley, Brisbane City and Moreton Bay Council Areas.

Issued at 5:19 pm Monday, 8 October 2018.
Weather Situation:
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 5:25 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near Marburg and Rosewood. These thunderstorms are moving towards the northeast. They are forecast to affect Fernvale by 5:55 pm and Samford by 6:25 pm.
Damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding are likely.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 19:15

So it's split into severe left and right movers (and we're stuck with all the rubbish in between). I wonder if that right mover south-west of Amberley will live on to the coast.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 19:20

TS commenced Wynnum Nth 1815.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 19:24

Looking at the radar earlier and I thought we might get some action here this afternoon, but pretty much missed it all today. Caught the very edge of what's hitting the city and Northside currently, with a massive 0.8mm added to our weekends rainfall total...lol.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 19:37

That cell won't make it here.. so weak it has nothing to give..
Posted by: gberg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 19:38

A few day time bolts i captured this afternoon up in the Noosa Hinterland from that severe warned storm.

IMG_9526-Edit by George Berg, on Flickr
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 19:50

Originally Posted By: Steve O
That cell won't make it here.. so weak it has nothing to give..


Sadly. I thought it did very well to intensify as it did considering that its inflow was choked, although it probably got it its juice from the outflow boundary of the bigger cell?
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 19:51



Originally Posted By: Steve O
That cell won't make it here.. so weak it has nothing to give..


The cell hit Ipswich and Greenbank and has turned into a right mover. It is a compact little storm hitting us on the Northside right now. Plenty of crackers going off and a nice bit for of rain. The cell moving in your direction has been labeled severe. See how it pans out for you. Hopefully you get something.

I think BoM have been a little pedantic with their track maps. So far the storms have made it past their warning areas where as WZ had a more blanket area
Posted by: Foehn Correspondent

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 19:55

Nice photo G'berg.

Nothing much from that last cell that has just gone through the City and northside, although as NF has said we were probably in the middle of the stronger cells. Some nice cracks of thunder and it is still raining here.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 19:57

Caboolture again
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 20:01

Nice pic. Hmm more to the SW popping up.
Posted by: pabloako

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 20:22

19mm of rain in less than 4 minutes and a 41Kts wind with pea sized hail here in Ocean View.

Excuse the fuzzy photo, my phone lens steamed up and then I got cold.!
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 20:26

First direct-hit storm of the year here, although most have missed us I'm loving this year so far for storms.

If it keeps this up it should be a great season. Makes me look forward to Wednesday quite a bit.

Awesome photo Gberg shocked
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 20:27

Gee, some good falls on the models for the next week at least, BOM forecasts are optimistic, gotta havalook if da mower still works, greening up nicely.
Nice pix gberg & pablo.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 21:20

It was so exciting i just woke up in my chair
Yawn
But nice to see some getting action
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 21:26

Awesome shot George, going to be a good week with super storms forecasted on wednesday
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 21:27

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Too late to write anything off here... this small storm near Logan sure packed a lot of lightning and thunder for its size! Lots of clear-air bolts spitting out of it before:




Wow Ken awesome
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 21:35

I managed to get to the top level of a shopping centre carpark on the Gold Coast. While I was doing a handheld pano,i caught this strike which was a fluke. Very difficult to catch a bolt in daylight.

Carpark special. by Glen Anderson, on Flickr
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 21:39

Great pics Gleno, Ken and gberg...loving seeing peopleís storm pics again now thereís some action about.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 21:40

Wicked Gleno, Pac Fair lookin NW, came right over us at Tallai.
Nice pics all round guys
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 21:58

Oh dear, Wednesday is turning on us based on all the recent model runs. What a shame.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 22:13

That is an awesome photo Gleno
NF yeah forecast turns, I guess that the nature of it some more, some less. Forecast is just an estimate and estimates will change
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 08/10/2018 22:42

THIS cell that started west of Amberley AP and ran all the way up to and off the Sunshine Coast has done some fairly extensive tree damage up through the Glasshouse Mountains tonight according to a friend down that way. The roads disappeared under leaf litter in some parts.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 08:30


WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..9 OCT 2018 TIME..0725

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.6C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........88%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........18C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED.....WSW 5Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1017.2HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........2/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........6.2mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......26.6C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....15.8C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...14.2C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....16C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1017.2Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..NE 33kph at 1635
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Evening thunderstorm cleared by 2000.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 08:47

Met Eye forecast for yesterday locally was way off. Despite raining for 3 hours it still had zero rain from 4 pm to 7pm and 7pm to 10pm and a zero percent chance of any at all. It then had a 10% chance after that after all had cleared. Noting today once more zero rain forecast till 1 a.m. Wednesday despite BoM and OCF saying otherwise.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 08:51

Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Met Eye forecast for yesterday locally was way off. Despite raining for 3 hours it still had zero rain from 4 pm to 7pm and 7pm to 10pm and a zero percent chance of any at all. It then had a 10% chance after that after all had cleared. Noting today once more zero rain forecast till 1 a.m. Wednesday despite BoM and OCF saying otherwise.

Are you sure? It's showing up for me - see below:


Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 09:40

Looking like a decent drenching here tomorrow evening if all goes to plan.AccessR has this area in a bullseye zone for between 50 to 100 mls but we will wait and see on that one
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 10:17

Just saw some images posted from a friends family of the storm that tore through Gympie yesterday afternoon, picked up a pretty heavy trampoline and threw it over the fence then down the paddock. Their water tank ended up in the dam. I havenít been able to ask for permission to use it yet but what a doozy of a storm.

Possibility of more storms today and tomorrow. Will be keeping an eye on all info as it comes in. Amazing that on a storm day such as yesterday BoM did not send up the second balloon in the afternoon. Another point of interest was their track paths where out of skilter as if they were trying to be over smart. WZ took a wiser approach and had a blanket area where BoM had the storm warning missing south of Caloundra. Below is the most obvious with a VDS heading straight towards the bay but must had a stop sign ahead. I know what some of the arguments will be but we were right under that storm and it was a stuff up by BoM.

Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 10:22

Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Another point of interest was their track paths where out of skilter as if they were trying to be over smart. WZ took a wiser approach and had a blanket area where BoM had the storm warning missing south of Caloundra. Below is the most obvious with a VDS heading straight towards the bay but must had a stop sign ahead. I know what some of the arguments will be but we were right under that storm and it was a stuff up by BoM.

When you say WZ had a blanket area, do you mean on their map? My understanding is that WZ's system always shades the entire forecast district with the warning colour even if the warning only applies to a portion of it unless you're referring to something else.
P.S. awesome photo Gleno
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 10:35

On my phone and don't have a lot of time to go in-depth but damn, models are really hammering this region from Wednesday through to Saturday. EC and the new GFS (FV3) have up to 200mm or more falling across the WBB and cruddy old GFS came into line with them this morning. Really hoping it comes off.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 10:49

Yeah that is correct Ken, on WZ map which I think is a better option for the majority.
Looking at BoM's map they had a massive blanket area which only a portion was affected by severe storms.

So in the scenario like this who is in the right and who is wrong? When you specifically have a cut off as BoM did in their track path,then add a severe storm heading in that direction but stopping short, the everyday public is not going to understand that. I understand the dynamics of the storm and will it be severe as it reaches such and such etc. But I just feel yesterday they failed in their duty of care to the everyday populace that has no understanding off storms.

PS. Loved everyones photos and contributions to this thread. Awesome shots.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 11:24

With the prospect of a very interesting few days coming up I was reflecting how a crazy time spring can be, and a month can go completely against a trend. Just look at October 1972(yes, believe it or not, I do remember it). Lismore had it's first, and I think, still only October major flood. This summary from the wonderful information from the Bureau.

"1972 October Rains in south-east Queensland during the first week and additional rain from the middle of the month brought most catchments to a state of saturation by 26th. As a result , the heavy rains in the south-east from 27th to 30th produced the season's first floods. Major flooding was caused in the Macintyre River mainly downstream from Goondiwindi.
In the Condamine River there was widespread flooding in most tributaries upstream from Tummaville. As a result , the combined run-off produced major flooding downstream from Tummaville and extensive crop losses."
1972 November Flood levels continually fluctuated in the Condamine , Balonne and Macintyre rivers during the month. The flooding attained major proportions in the lower reaches of the Condamine River and Macintyre River below Goondiwindi.
Minor to moderate flooding was experienced in the Albert , Logan and Nerang rivers and moderate flooding occurred in the Warrill Creek and Bremer River, tributaries of the Brisbane River.

Minor flooding progressed down the Mary River from 11th to 14th , and local flooding occurred in Brisbane City metropolitan areas from heavy rain."
BUT the interesting point is that 1972-73 was a moderate el nino period.
Hope we all get good rain and storms.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 11:25

Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Yeah that is correct Ken, on WZ map which I think is a better option for the majority.
Looking at BoM's map they had a massive blanket area which only a portion was affected by severe storms.

Yesterday aside, the problem with having a blanket warning for an entire district is that there's often times when storms are likely to only affect a small portion of the district, especially if that district is a big one. For example, say only 20% of a district is likely to get a severe storm, the other 80% get un-necessarily warned. If that happens repeatedly, it creates a boy who cried wolf syndrome, people get complacent and start ignoring warnings. I see it all the time on social media. It's always better to be as specific as possible about which areas deserve a warning but also taking the uncertainty of the boundaries of that warning into account.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 11:35

mate recorded 15mm in 3 mins up at Ocean View last night. Although he is always legit, I was sketchy until i saw pab's post. 15mm in 3 mins , now you dont want that rain rate lasting too long.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 11:57

Stapy on a technical shutdown, 5 hrs apparently.
Good old Marburg!
Posted by: Stormwalker

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 12:11

Hoi Ken! How are those scripts coming along poke

I have taken tomorrow off from work, should I be charging my camera battery? haha
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 12:13

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Yeah that is correct Ken, on WZ map which I think is a better option for the majority.
Looking at BoM's map they had a massive blanket area which only a portion was affected by severe storms.

Yesterday aside, the problem with having a blanket warning for an entire district is that there's often times when storms are likely to only affect a small portion of the district, especially if that district is a big one. For example, say only 20% of a district is likely to get a severe storm, the other 80% get un-necessarily warned. If that happens repeatedly, it creates a boy who cried wolf syndrome, people get complacent and start ignoring warnings. I see it all the time on social media. It's always better to be as specific as possible about which areas deserve a warning but also taking the uncertainty of the boundaries of that warning into account.


Yeah good point and taken Ken. Thanks.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 12:45

Anyone have any idea on todays set up
Appears tommorrow may be a clear yard of anything that can fly type of day
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 12:47

Same as yesterday, darkening quickly to the SW & PRESTO,
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 12:57

Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
With the prospect of a very interesting few days coming up I was reflecting how a crazy time spring can be, and a month can go completely against a trend. Just look at October 1972(yes, believe it or not, I do remember it). Lismore had it's first, and I think, still only October major flood. This summary from the wonderful information from the Bureau.

"1972 October Rains in south-east Queensland during the first week and additional rain from the middle of the month brought most catchments to a state of saturation by 26th. As a result , the heavy rains in the south-east from 27th to 30th produced the season's first floods. Major flooding was caused in the Macintyre River mainly downstream from Goondiwindi.
In the Condamine River there was widespread flooding in most tributaries upstream from Tummaville. As a result , the combined run-off produced major flooding downstream from Tummaville and extensive crop losses."
1972 November Flood levels continually fluctuated in the Condamine , Balonne and Macintyre rivers during the month. The flooding attained major proportions in the lower reaches of the Condamine River and Macintyre River below Goondiwindi.
Minor to moderate flooding was experienced in the Albert , Logan and Nerang rivers and moderate flooding occurred in the Warrill Creek and Bremer River, tributaries of the Brisbane River.

Minor flooding progressed down the Mary River from 11th to 14th , and local flooding occurred in Brisbane City metropolitan areas from heavy rain."
BUT the interesting point is that 1972-73 was a moderate el nino period.
Hope we all get good rain and storms.


Another fun one is to consider when SEQ dam levels recovered from the millenium drought. It wasn't in the 07/08/09 La Nina, although we got enough rain to get out of immediate trouble, with Wivenhoe up over 30% by March 09. It wasn't during 10/11 La Nina, although we certainly got enough rain to do so. It was during the 2009/2010 el nino. Significant dam level increases in April and May of 2009 to get us over 60%, and another surge in March 2010 to get us over 95%.
Admittedly on the edges of the el nino, or arguably outside it if you want to spoil a fun story.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 13:05

Thanks, Mike for taking the time to read & reply.
Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 13:09

Originally Posted By: gleno71
I managed to get to the top level of a shopping centre carpark on the Gold Coast. While I was doing a handheld pano,i caught this strike which was a fluke. Very difficult to catch a bolt in daylight.

Carpark special. by Glen Anderson, on Flickr


Always awesome when that happens! They are near impossible to get the timing right if you don't have specialized trigger gear during the day.
Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 13:11

I love how they always take Stappy offline during the days we are expecting something.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 13:26

Plenty lightening & thunder happening.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 13:55

At least stapy should be back up by the time anything serious kicks off.

Looking dark to the West already however.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 13:59

Storm #1 done, 3mm with some C2C, C2G & lots of big bangs as well.
Next please!
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 14:13

Just 1 here would be nice
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 14:25

Small storm Here, Had hail up to golf ball size Mainly 20 cent size Man it was loud.Only 5.7 mm of rain. Lot more water in the hail than the rain lol.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 14:26

Decent effort doug!
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 14:57

Thats decent size hail there Doug, no damage I hope?
Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 15:29

Looks to be a little bit kicking off smile
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 15:32

Storm #2 banging away.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 15:32

Nice looking cell passing just to the North of us. A few rumbles in the distance. On the radar it is the Sommerset- Caboolture cell.

BoM have the severe cells just moving 15. - 20 KM to the North of us here or 5mm on the warning ⚠️ zone. 🤔☹️😁

I reckon later this afternoon/ evening that path will move a little further South.
Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 15:45

Sleeper building to the southwest of ippy. Nice to see a bit of rain around.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 15:48

Looks like the Kingaroy Donut Hole has made an appearance again, all we're getting is drizzle at the moment.
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 15:49

That cell building to the SouthWest of Ipswich is looking like a monster from where I'm sitting in Toowong.

Wish the Stapy radar woudl come back up so we can get a better gauge on it.
Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 16:11

Originally Posted By: Locke

Wish the Stapy radar woudl come back up so we can get a better gauge on it.


Now saying, Duration: Unknown
Posted by: Wight

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 16:12

Cell just about to hit here at Sippy Downs and I'm about to leave work. Will probably drive straight into it. Fun times ahead.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 16:39

Had a good little shower with some big booms that gone Esk way, not much to the SW atm.
Re Stapy, lucky we still got Marburg, butt, there was a recent upgrade to Stapy earlier this year after numerous fails last summer.
I am not a whingebag but there seems to be an ongoing problem there & it needs to be fixed! I'm sure the Tech's are trying their best, so is it a hardware design problem? Seems to me its an ongoing expensive problem radar.
Posted by: Sandbank

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 16:42

Cats and dogs at Buderim and LOUD thunder.
Posted by: wetdreams

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 16:56

Just got a message from the wife, 25mm in 15 minutes. Big branch down off the trees in front of the house. No damage, but pretty intense apparently.
Iím working interstate and missed the action. frown
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 17:04

There's been some reports of downed trees near Landsborough with debris on roads and a car gone into a powerpole.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 17:11

Thunder to SW of Wynnum at 1540.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 17:25

Just had a look at BOMs forecast, been a loong time seeing those numbers. Bring it on!
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 17:33

Bucketing down in Noosa now. Might be sticking around for a while by the looks of the radar.
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 17:51

Still hammering down, Rene Street is flooded right across into Leo Alley Road. The boss's Land Rover parked on the side of the road has water up to the wheel hubs.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 17:59

Switched to Gympie radar and the Doppler has some very strong winds approaching that area. Plus looking at WZ storm tracker I am not sure if Marburg is having a slight bug or it is not interacting with storm tracker.

Some of the reports from the STW
2cm hail has been reported at Nambour and Fernvale
56mm has been observed in 15 minutes at Coolum West

Glad we have Marburg but it really is a step down from MT Stappy. The amount of money spent on Stappy upgrade was unbelievable for it to continue to crash or is it like so many things lately and getting hacked.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 18:15

I swear Stapy spends more time offline during the storm season than it does on (kidding). We've had 6+ months of nothing and the very first week of the storm season it goes out. Makes you wonder.
Posted by: pkgjmg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 18:18

Originally Posted By: Mega
I swear Stapy spends more time offline during the storm season than it does on (kidding). We've had 6+ months of nothing and the very first week of the storm season it goes out. Makes you wonder.


my husband said earlier 'do they have stapy set on automatic shut down when storms appear' .. rofl ....
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 18:19

Nothing to report here. Looks like everything has been downgraded once again for the Southern Downs.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 18:21

Just drizzle and thunder here so far, looks like that might be over soon too.

I really hope Mt Stapylton is up for tomorrow.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 18:25

We have finally had decent rain, we actually have puddles for the first time in I canít remember how long and now itís raining with the sun out! Glorious. Will check totals when itís stops. Might only be 10-15mm but so good and we planted seeds a week ago smile
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 18:27

Awesome sunset coming up!
Re Stapy, I read somewhere if the local techs cant fix it, some need to come from Germany to fix it. Doesnt look promising!
Posted by: pkgjmg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 18:29

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Awesome sunset coming up!
Re Stapy, I read somewhere if the local techs cant fix it, some need to come from Germany to fix it. Doesnt look promising!


ARE YOU SERIOUS? that's what happened last year when it was offline for months - they said they had to get someone from Germany to fix it!
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 18:37

Was hoping it would come back online soon (like today), don't think I can wait for someone from Germany laugh
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 18:39

If worst comes to worst we can pool a few bob and pick up one of these grin

Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 18:40

For Thur-Sat, EC in one run has gone from a strong slow moving trough to a massive ridge blasting everything away by Thursday night. In just one run, a huge downgrade like that. Watch for the other models to follow.
Posted by: Kino

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 18:41

Could just be an outlier.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 18:42

Originally Posted By: Kino
Could just be an outlier.


I hope so. I for one was looking forward to a rainy weekend for a change.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 18:43

I personally don't like to trust the 00z runs of models compared to the 12z runs, especially at longer ranges. I find they can be more erratic. But the objective skill scores are only marginally better for the 12z run of EC compared to the 00z runs in the Southern Hemisphere outside of the tropics so there might be some subjectivity in my impression.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 18:44

Wouldnt surprise me.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 18:46

Thanks Ken, I've forgotten about that. Is three days really considered longer range though? It does seem to be an outlier but EC does have this knack for being the first model to usually catch onto a new trend...
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 18:48

Some of the rain rates about have been outstanding. To that point, the general rain around for end of sept , early October has been very well received, usually drier than a camels hump.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 18:51

Actually, on second look, the big rains are still there but they've shifted a few hundred ks north to the Capricornia.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 18:52

Yeah Mega, even within 24 to 48hrs, I find the 00z runs can be a bit erratic with certain parameters although it could be that they make up for it in certain setups since the objective scores clearly show that skill is better with shorter lead times. It's just a suspicion really but I do know of a forecaster who's also noticed a similar trait.

Hard to say with confidence whether it'll be the case with the situation you're talking about though. It could well be that the 00z run wins out. I haven't looked closely at the setup for a few days now but will be doing so soon.
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 18:58

It looks like GFS is showing something similar in it's 00z run.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 19:01

7.5mm at front and 9mm at back. 😍
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 19:03

AccessG in it's 00z is not quite as bad as the other two but showing a tendency to move the heavier rain more nth.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 19:06

Yeah ACCESS-R is actually the same as EC. Change just blasts up to CQ. Game over from Thursday night.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 19:14

Originally Posted By: Lani
7.5mm at front and 9mm at back. 😍
Nice drop there Lani.
Guess you will sad to see the dust go huh? lol

I'd say we'd be near the 10mm mark here; starting to green up nicely without any hard work on my part lol.

Damned shattering lightning at the end though.
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 19:14

I can't believe this re stapy. For gods sake didn't they learn from last time and put in a contingency plan for the ( this is really obvious) event it happens again which in my book was certain. Sticking a mobile dopler of some sort besides the current one isn't that stupid. I want my money back because the bom don't keep a lessons learn't register. EG a register to learn from previous mistakes, in this case keeping the current contract going. I would have ripped it up the last time they had an outage.
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 19:14

It's hard to work out how there can be such a big turn around in one run of the models.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 19:17

Hard to believe a rain system is going to move north. Usually the opposite happens and they end up in Sydney!!
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 19:26

My oldest son looked at the forecast & said, HA, 100mm of bulldust more like it!
Hmmmm.
Rainbow Beach is the latest GFS wet spot.
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 19:48

10.6mm here this evening. Some pretty speccy storms around these parts last few days, good stuff for early October. Haven't had much more than brief heavy showers at home but there have been reports of hail, damaging winds and falls of 100mm+ around Kingaroy from this event.
Posted by: gberg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 20:00

Amazing storm here in Noosa this arvo. Wind wasn't too bad but the rain was some of the heaviest I've seen. Ended up with 85mm in less than an hour here at home.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 20:06

Good to read of some getting the big falls, we are at 19mm event total here and 30mm all up from the past few weeks. Not complaining at all about the 30mm, but geez it's a far cry from some of the amounts others have been receiving of late.....atleast the rain here has had a chance to soak in rather then run straight off into the gutter, so that's a positive.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 20:22

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Yeah that is correct Ken, on WZ map which I think is a better option for the majority.
Looking at BoM's map they had a massive blanket area which only a portion was affected by severe storms.

Yesterday aside, the problem with having a blanket warning for an entire district is that there's often times when storms are likely to only affect a small portion of the district, especially if that district is a big one. For example, say only 20% of a district is likely to get a severe storm, the other 80% get un-necessarily warned. If that happens repeatedly, it creates a boy who cried wolf syndrome, people get complacent and start ignoring warnings. I see it all the time on social media. It's always better to be as specific as possible about which areas deserve a warning but also taking the uncertainty of the boundaries of that warning into account.



That's why I like the Early Warning Network app, it goes on your location and you only receive a warning if your in a particular area.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 20:24

We've been pretty lucky in Kingaroy so far with the storms.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 20:30

Nice storm here, nothing too severe but I only speak from my location near the CBD.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 20:32

Not a drop..again
Posted by: Taylsy

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 20:41

Stapy is back.
Posted by: PlumbBob

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 20:42

Yup, beat me, Thought it be out all night, but there ya go, - she'll go off again midday tomoz or early arvo, touch wood haha
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 20:54

Always use to wounder why yhe townsville weather radar would have planned service outages for days over the wet season but none in the dry season
Perhaps same supply company as the stapy
Good that its back on
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 20:55

Great news, amazing technology. Well done!
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 21:18

Latest ACCESS-R now stalling the change along the Fraser Coast instead of blasting it up the coast by Thursday night. ACCESS-G still looks fantastic for northern parts of SEQ too. Seems EC is the main outlier now.

Up to 40mm for the night now.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 21:37

Originally Posted By: Mega
Latest ACCESS-R now stalling the change along the Fraser Coast instead of blasting it up the coast by Thursday night. ACCESS-G still looks fantastic for northern parts of SEQ too. Seems EC is the main outlier now.

Up to 40mm for the night now.


*36mm.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 21:57

The lightning is the best part Kazz, makes the grass grow amazingly.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 22:32

So tomorrow evening/night most of SEQ will get rain/storm action, but it looks a lot more complicated when it comes to severe potential.

It looks like we should see a hot and clear day, possibly well into the afternoon. The westerlies push almost to the coast keeping us dry, but not capped. A strong seabreeze arrives in the afternoon bringing a big injection of moisture and raising CAPE from almost zero to values approaching 2000 along coastal SEQ. This should create a 'Round 1' of storms forming along the seabreeze front in various parts of SEQ. There's a decent lapse rate, some helicity for turning winds and pretty strong easterly steering. There's a chance some of these storms could be severe, although I'm not convinced that we'll see an outbreak of supercells at this point.

Meanwhile the big show is getting started down south. The southerly should reach Byron by about 4 pm, GC around 7 and Brisbane by around 9. Overall it looks absolutely juicy for NE NSW with big instability, cold mids and freezing uppers and good shear. I expect there will be cells with destructive wind and giant hail down there, possibly a major line or supercell pushing NE out to sea off Byron or into GC.

Unfortunately, the timing of the southerly looks to be too late for us, but it should be enough for a decent 'Round 2'. I think all the major activity will exit NE through GC and smash the ocean with the rest of SEQ seeing a coastal-focused band of rain and storms push up the coast. The question is whether the energy will have been sucked out the atmosphere from the afternoon storms in SEQ north of GC. When was the last time we saw a really severe storm in Brisbane off a southerly change at night?

So in summary most of coastal SEQ should see storms significantly favouring GC and NE NSW for severe potential. The arrival of the southerly should then bring widespread rain to most of coastal SEQ.

I'm a little disappointed because this could have been a huge SEQ event if the southerly had arrived earlier, but not to be. There's enough unpredictability about tomorrow to still keep me guessing though. Would be very interested to hear Ken and other's thoughts.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 22:38

Access C has the bulk of the activity occurring between 5 and 7 pm in northern NSW, Southern Gold Coast.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 22:49

Originally Posted By: gleno71
Access C has the bulk of the activity occurring between 5 and 7 pm in northern NSW, Southern Gold Coast.


Thanks, I don't have access to that. Not surprised, if I were a storm chaser I'd be parking myself right there in anticipation of a pretty epic storm.
Posted by: PlumbBob

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 09/10/2018 23:55

hey ho, Stappy crappy - again - its a total failure this radar..

It happens 50 % of a storm potential systems - they cant fix it properly, looking in the wrong direction for a fix, they haven't nailed the cause yet, been happening for years ,,,,
just sayin''
well, it is all kind of ridiculous. r the germans having a lend of us Grrr, ,, haha.

Radar service is currently unavailable due to:
Reason: Technical or equipment problems
Date: 09/10/2018
Start time: 9:15 am EST
Duration: Unknown
Estimated time of restoration of service: Unknown
Please use the backup Brisbane (Marburg) radar.
Posted by: Blinky_Bill

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 00:14

Did anyone see this up Nth of tewantin this evening with that cell that sat on the coast heading Nth? The doppler signature looked very interesting, maybe a possible waterspout?? It looked better on the Bom radar than this shows. Both Doppler and 128k here

See : 128km Radar Loop for Gympie, 07:00 09/10/2018 to 10:00 09/10/2018 UTC


See : 128km Radar Loop for Gympie, 07:00 09/10/2018 to 10:00 09/10/2018 UTC
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 07:29

The stapy radar :
Unfortunately, Brisbane Mt Staplyton radar has developed a technical fault. Radar technicians will be on site to investigate on Wednesday morning. During this time please access nearby Marburg and Gympie radars in addition to high resolution satellite imagery.
SHOULD READ : Our German counterparts have been called to fix the issue but they take at least 4 days to fly out here.We aren't going to say that because we will look silly. Then they hold us ransom whilst they take their time. Unfortunately they are not smart enough to create a remotely managed system like everything else in the world today because they like to take the flight to enjoy our weather. Also the bom procurement process at the time didn't factor in KPI's for the company to manage the system and this is why they are still around.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 08:00

4mm from yesterdays efforts.
Just curious, we have plenty of dopplers around OZ now, so why is Stapy the problem child & the others appear to behave? Are they all the same or is Stapy a German schweinehund?
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 08:12

They've had the entire dry season to test it and get it ready for the stormy season. It's a little ridiculous and honestly embarrassing at this point.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 08:20


WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..10 OCT 2018 TIME..0720

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......19.1C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........85%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........16C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED.....SW 2Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1014.4HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........Sky clear
RAIN SINCE 0900...........Trace

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......26.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....14.9C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...14.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....16C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1015.6Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..NW 34kph at 1703
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Thunder heard to SW late afternoon, no TS locally.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 08:58

Below is the thunderstorm script output for the period between 9am today and 6am Thursday morning Stormwalker.

Most things still look good to me for today for numerous storms - the only things I can see that may or may not ruin it are:

1) somewhat dry'ish lower levels initially which may cause most storms to be high-based at first (but may develop lower bases later near the coast)
2) some capping near the coast
3) if activity initiates too early (but if it doesn't, that's great)
4) smaller mesoscale/storm-scale interactions not playing ball with the broadscale setup

Despite those factors, it still looks great for storms in a lot of areas & the steering is strong so there's a distinct possibility that storms could reach parts of the coast after being advected from the more favourable western & southern areas (e.g. Downs, Lockyer Valley, near & south of the QLD/NSW border, etc).
The non-severe storms should come from a WSW direction while any severe cells will deviate from this direction.

Some locations where previous activity hasn't settled down the atmosphere too much might also get further activity continuing through the overnight hours into early tomorrow due to the residual instability.

P.S. that's gold paulcirrus!


Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 10:02

Beutifull sunny warm morning, 25C already & not a cloud in sight! Fantastic heating coming up!
Good looking map Ken.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 10:08

Nice work Ken, bring on the supercells! might go for a cruise down Murwillumbah later
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 10:16

I am not impressed with Stappy being down, but it was upgraded to try and give it a longer lifespan which technically meant it was due to be replaced but we will put a bandaid on it to struggle through.
But at the same time it may not be a software issue. Could be a technical problem with the mechanics etc.

This was the BoM media release for their excuse on spending millions for an extra 10 years of life
Mt Stapylton Radar offline for mid-life refurbishment
18/04/2018


Brisbane's Mt Stapylton Radar will be offline from today (18 April) for approximately two weeks while we complete a mid-life refurbishment that will extend the radar's operational life by a further 10 years. We anticipate the radar will be back online by Friday 27 April.

This outage has been planned well in advance; following the peak of severe weather and storm season and the Gold Coast Commonwealth Games.

While employing advanced technology, Mount Stapylton is not a new radar. As you would service your car, we also need to service our radar network regularly, replacing parts that wear out over time. This refurbishment will replace components such as the klystron (which converts electrical to microwave energy), the power supply, motor and gear assemblies and control circuitry.

And a straight face report .
https://youtu.be/P8mARaeF5rw
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 11:43

Estimated Stapy return 4.15pm today.
I am sure the Tech's are doing their best to revive that old dog of a radar.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 11:56

I feel sorry for them to be honest. It is not their fault.

I am just wondering what happens in 9 years if they fully decomish it. How far ahead has the govt thought about locations or costs involved.? Or do they demolish and rebuild at Mount Stapylton and how long will that take?

Plus another intriguing question is how long after a shut down can the maintenance crew safely enter to fix any mechanical or electronic/ electrical equipment so as not to be affected by radiation.

I noticed CP2 at Redbank Plains was decomished last year (2107) which was a worry as there is now a school next to it.
So fortunately for the staff and kids would be safe.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 12:26

Clouds popping their heads up W of the ranges.
Posted by: WeatherNut96

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 12:44

stapylton is up!
Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 12:56

Originally Posted By: WeatherNut96
stapylton is up!


But for how long!
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 13:03

Don't think they need to worry about radiation Colin , They are like microwaves Radio frequency only when its working.Hey you should know that your a ham lol .These are a bit bigger that i used to help install on boats lol. I would like to see what they have to replace it in 9 years ,Hope we can assess 3d radar.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 13:38

Moisture could be an issue today but all we can do is wait and see.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 13:50

Moisture definitely an issue. Potential for dangerous storms maybe if something can tap into moisture close to the coast. And the possibility that if something gets going it could be isolated and therefore not have to share energy with nearby cells.

Follow up looks to include a small ECL on GFS, but tends to take the rain out to sea and focus it on a small area on the coast.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 14:08

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Moisture definitely an issue. Potential for dangerous storms maybe if something can tap into moisture close to the coast. And the possibility that if something gets going it could be isolated and therefore not have to share energy with nearby cells.

Yup. Moisture (in an elevated form) is actually better inland and in the south compared to the coast which is common for setups like these so storms shouldn't have much trouble initiating in those areas.

If they can survive to the coast (helped by the strong steering winds) and the greater capping there, they could start ingesting the higher dewpoint air from the surface and/or interact with the seabreeze front and turn into numerous severe storms. If the drier lower levels near the coast prove a bit too much, expect the showers & storms to be more in the form of scattered popcorn convection rather than big juicy intense cells.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 14:10

Still really not confident on SEQ activity during this afternoon, at least not until the southerly drags a rain band up tonight.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 14:18

Looking at that lightning tracker over NSW though a lot of energy developing south of us should be interesting later!
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 14:31

Not much happening out here, lots of disorganised clouds. 33C & a bit of a N breeze rustling the leaves.
Yesterday & day before had plenty of noise by now.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 14:40

Have to be patient elf can see a some decent towers to the south west from where I am.
Posted by: pkgjmg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 15:03

holy moly how humid and hot is it today - some really good cloud were building to the SW of Mt Warren Park earlier - but I can't see them any more? .... i reckon if today doesn't go off like a fire cracker tomorrow maybe???????
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 15:10

Nah the main focus of tomorrow's activity will shift further north and west with the much cooler change.

Band of storms now exploding over the Downs as I type and marching east.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 15:10

Gezzzzz look at the 512km radar
Id say were going to get a smacked bottom later
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 15:15

Cheers Tweed, just making a comparison.
256k Stapy looking intetesting way west.
Posted by: Homer

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 15:16

Originally Posted By: pkgjmg
holy moly how humid and hot is it today


And at my place in Sydney's Hills District it is currently 12.7 deg's and raining and windy, after torrential rain this morning. Such a difference!
I've even got the fire going!
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 15:27

34.5C, looking like lots of flash bangs later this arvo & tonight.
O oh, Courier Mail trumpeting a supercell warning.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 15:40

That big band marching across the Downs is really motoring along and is now getting close to the western boundary of the SEC district - the rapid speed pretty much as expected with the strong steering winds.
Radar/lightning image via Weatherzone as at 2:20pm EST/3:20pm EDT:


Posted by: Foehn Correspondent

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 15:52

And showing up nicely on the Toowoomba Airport web cam

https://weathercams.airservicesaustralia.com/?airport=toowoomba-airport
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 15:55

Small cell building over Greenbank.

Thanks Ozone Doug, I was just hearing a few horror stories re Ham operators getting a good doze of waves. But I thought just the size of the golf ball may have held a bit but it disperses within a few nanoseconds like you said.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 16:20

Thats a good looking line on 256k Stapy, with this heat atm its gona bomb coming off the range? Wind has turned more to the E now, feeding the moisture.
Posted by: pkgjmg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 16:22

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Thats a good looking line on 256k Stapy, with this heat atm its gona bomb coming off the range? Wind has turned more to the E now, feeding the moisture.


bomb as in die? or bomb as in explode? it has cooled down here quite a lot in the past hour and I could see BIG tops to the W of us but they aren't as big or ominous looking as before ......
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 16:29

Not looking real emthusiastic at the moment is it
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 16:29

Originally Posted By: pkgjmg
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Thats a good looking line on 256k Stapy, with this heat atm its gona bomb coming off the range? Wind has turned more to the E now, feeding the moisture.


bomb as in die? or bomb as in explode? it has cooled down here quite a lot in the past hour and I could see BIG tops to the W of us but they aren't as big or ominous looking as before ......


In this case it should be as in bomb or drop in atmospheric pressure and cyclogenesis should create a few super cells.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 16:30

Must be luling us into a false sence of security
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 16:31

Thanks Colin, beat me to it.
Getting very dark to the West now.
Posted by: PlumbBob

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 16:41

Interesting discussion & input all ,,

I was checking the skew T's and they have there own story for the SEQld corner, GC,Briz ?
a) not much direction sheer until the sthrly comes through seqld corner around 7pm, Speed sheer is quite nice tho
b) Cap in around 3c closer to coast - which is quite moderate & stays with us all arevo & evening ?
c) Moisture in most levels is not great but better near & just off the coast after sundown ?
Just some points Ive noticed ?
Watching some webcams and can see the storm heads/towers trying to reach up & out, but evaporating like no-tomorow - just too dry me thinks ?
Maybe some high lbased spot storms carrying through the afternoon - speshely around the border & Sth there of.
Possible light show off the coast after dark ??
At his stage - Looking betterra for Tomoz on most accounts ????
HavagoodN

My Bobs Worth
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 16:42

STW border to past Monto. Thats a big area.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 16:47

I'm calling squall line. No supercells. Is today the day the supercell fans get to see there is more to good storms than supercells?
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 17:11

Another fizzer in Kingaroy but all we can do is wait and see.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 17:15

I just keep looking at that lightning tracker it's on its way surely
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 17:19

Very dark here for the last hour but not much else.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 17:19

That grey cloudy mess to the west doesnt impress me at all atm.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 17:23

The media said sever and dangerous storms today...waiting..waiting
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 17:24

Latest forecast for the next 4 days does suggest the best falls will be in the sunshine coast north to the wide bay area.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 17:27

Looking at marine forcasts. Im going for a big overnight early morning storm ahead of that big southerly
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 17:31

Apart from above with overnight storms and looking at the radar. This afternoon is pus
Posted by: Lewis

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 17:40

Calling this afternoon and evening as a fizzer.

The edge has come off the heat, sun is going down, there is easily 100km of scud and cloud in front of this and there isnít much in terms of storm activity coming from this band moving through. Pretty disappointing really, particularly for Brisbane, which has missed out several days in a row now.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 17:47

Agreed lewis
Total for last 5 days 0.00. Distant thunder heard twice
Wife called it early today. said with all the hype itll be a non event
Now ive gotta listen to her ranting about how good she is at the weather
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 17:55

Originally Posted By: tsunami
Looking at marine forcasts. Im going for a big overnight early morning storm ahead of that big southerly

The possibility of secondary showers & possible thunder's during the overnight or early morning's been suggested by a number of models for quite awhile now.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 17:56

Apart from the wide bay region and down near byron, not much happening in between. Not giving up yet but losing hope
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 18:01

Some decent wind gusts atm, rumblings with some fat drops.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 18:03

For those only concentrating on Mt Stapylton's 64/128km scale, there's currently another growing cluster of storms (behind the main band) moving roughly east across the Cecil Plains/Jondaryan area towards the western boundary of the SE Coast district.
Posted by: pkgjmg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 18:04

maybe the 2nd line out west might produce something later? but wow talk about a fizzer BUT I think the BOM did a good job - FB "wanna be BOM" not so good - mention of TORNADO'S etc ... anyway mother nature will always do what she wants, not what we think she will .........
Posted by: pkgjmg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 18:06

Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Originally Posted By: pkgjmg
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Thats a good looking line on 256k Stapy, with this heat atm its gona bomb coming off the range? Wind has turned more to the E now, feeding the moisture.


bomb as in die? or bomb as in explode? it has cooled down here quite a lot in the past hour and I could see BIG tops to the W of us but they aren't as big or ominous looking as before ......


In this case it should be as in bomb or drop in atmospheric pressure and cyclogenesis should create a few super cells.


ahhh ok thanks smile
Posted by: pkgjmg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 18:07

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
For those only concentrating on Mt Stapylton's 64/128km scale, there's currently another growing cluster of storms (behind the main band) moving roughly east across the Cecil Plains/Jondaryan area towards the western boundary of the SE Coast district.


I'm 256klm and I see that too ken, maybe something in it? garden variety tho?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 18:10

Yep not severe yet at the moment pkgjmg.
This is the activity I was referring to in my previous post.
Image via Weatherzone:


Posted by: pkgjmg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 18:12

YEP that's the area I've been watching ....

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Yep not severe yet at the moment pkgjmg.
This is the activity I was referring to in my previous post.
Image via Weatherzone:


Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 18:21

Some of the activity currently moving across parts of the Lockyer Valley ahead of that activity is also strengthening atm.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 18:21

I like the direction of that arrow Ken, thanks!
That Atkinson Dam storm is building up a good head of steam.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 18:22

Bit of a frustrating fizzer far alot of people re afternnon major storms....incuding me.
But dont think its over till we get hit with the southerly
As ken said. Watch the one behind the intial band
Be interesting with what comes withe the southerly change in the early hours
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 18:24

Could be a sleepless night
Just my thoughts
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 18:25

Something popping up near toowoomba now
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 18:34

That storm near Mt Tarampa looking good for those living in its path.
Far from being a fizzer this first line.
Posted by: pkgjmg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 18:37

I'd say the first line is just starting to clear it's throat - radar going nuts atm!


Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
That storm near Mt Tarampa looking good for those living in its path.
Far from being a fizzer this first line.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 18:47

Gonna be a miss for cleveland again
Sometimes cleveland does very well on rain events and gets more than most
But if late with storms pfffffff not a ft
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 18:55

Was a nice cell approaching Toowoomba but it's dying as per usual.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 18:55

High-based trash so far up here...but the light show is nice.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 18:57

Better than nothing eyh
Just frustrating
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 19:02

Hope this second one will bring some wet joy for us. Missed out on the first one, intensified just to the SE of us.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 19:03

After the media hype etc re server and dangerous storms. As my wife said. Next time the general public will get caught out disrgarding the media hype up.
Time to start bbq and have tea
Bed early for some overnight storms or a good long sleep
Posted by: Timbuck

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 19:07

As that first line of storm is hitting the coast at the moment ....evaporating.....is that capping at play or just lack of inflow moisture ??
Or is it the NSW line taking the fuel ??

Just trying to learn more about these kind of set ups.

Cheers

Tim

Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 19:16

Originally Posted By: Timbuck
As that first line of storm is hitting the coast at the moment ....evaporating.....is that capping at play or just lack of inflow moisture ??
Or is it the NSW line taking the fuel ??
Just trying to learn more about these kind of set ups.
Cheers
Tim


I had a look at this afternoon's Brisbane Airport balloon sounding and the low level capping plus quite dry air in the lower levels just above the surface was pretty obvious, consistent with the forecast soundings. So I'd say those two are big factors.

Getting lightning and thunder to my west here now.
Here's a photo taken by James Washington in Moorooka just before and shared to the South Brisbane Storms fb page:


Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 19:17

The front is to late
If the southerly came through early at 4 or 5pm it would of been.. lookout
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 19:19

Nice pic ken
2 bands comming with a big gap over redlands oh well
Next week
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 19:20

Chunky little cell bearing down on the Tweed here getting very lightning active !
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 19:20

Great pic Ken!
Wet joy for us at last.
Posted by: Timbuck

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 19:21

Thanks ken.


For those playing at home. Check out the ripper little cell on the Namoi radar near boggabri. Got to be summer hard snow falling out of that
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 19:26

Not a fizzer in Peachester, just got belted with 30mm and marble sized hail.
Posted by: nocturnal1

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 19:27

Nice solid storm down here. Can hear the wind and rain whipping around outside. Momentary loss of power a few minutes ago.
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 19:28

Originally Posted By: Timbuck
Thanks ken.


For those playing at home. Check out the ripper little cell on the Namoi radar near boggabri. Got to be summer hard snow falling out of that
Looks pretty nasty and heading towards Gunnedah at a fair rate of knots
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 19:28

Wow, that looks like an angry little storm.
Might read about it tomorrow.
Posted by: nocturnal1

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 19:31

Ripper thundercracks, too. Not a fizzer in this neck of the woods 😀
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 19:31

Nothing but a pleasant breeze here, just got home from a run with an awesome view however, plenty of lightning about.

Seven News talking about large hail and damaging winds for Brisbane in coming hours, so they obviously think something is going to happen.

Alas, the 'Strathpine Gap' is ever present laugh
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 19:35

2.5mm from a high based storm here this arvo. A few big, angry CG's disrupted my arvo mowing session, couldn't get the mower back into the shed quick enough! But apart from that a disappointing afternoon rainfall wise. Still sitting at a respectable event total of 28mm, would really love a proper downpour though, hopefully tomorrow and later in the week can deliver.
Posted by: Nic_Bri

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 19:42

Some initial distant thunder and 5 mins of rain here at Mt Gravatt.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 19:58

Beautiful capture of the lightning over the Brisbane CBD a short time ago by Justin Noonan:


Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 19:59

Originally Posted By: Nic_Bri
Some initial distant thunder and 5 mins of rain here at Mt Gravatt.
guessing we got similar here at Salisbury looking at the rain gauge after juyst getting home now....event total 22.9mm for Salisbury. Hadn't even started raining at Morningside when I left the jobsite at 6.20 p.m, guessing they'll get even less then we received here going by what I drove through (not much in the way of rain) on the way home.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 20:00

Great shot . . . Wow we had a fierce storm here no disappointment whatsoever intense lightning down here
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 20:00

I'm not sure why people expected so much from today or the media hyped up the event so much. The set-up for severe storms (not the garden variety) didn't look that promising on the modelling for most of SEQ for days now, which I've been grumbling about on here since the weekend.

The only thing that surprises me is that NE NSW and possibly GC didn't get much more powerful action. I thought with the triple point and other favourable variables that they might be looking at a very damaging supercell come through, but instead they just got moderate multi-cell 'rubbish'.

This won't be it for the event though. I don't expect there will be severe storms, but there should be plenty more rain in this yet. I was under the 'black core' of the cell near Archerfield which dumped torrential rain and immediately afterward it was warm and humid. There's a ton of energy left in the atmosphere. I expect the southerly will trigger a decent amount of storms and rain as it moves north and stalls overnight and into tomorrow morning. Just don't expect the storms to be severe.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 20:11

I might add that stupid FB posts like this don't help:

Supercells and very dangerous storms possible today especially in the South East corner of the state. Severe storms likely East of the red line. Storms are likely in the remaining cupcake area.
Storms this afternoon could rip roofs off, bring trees and powerlines down while dumping giant hail up to tennis balls which will wreck your car. Stay safe everyone, lets see what kind of damage and destruction Mother Nature causes today.
Do you want access to our detailed accurate storm risk and rain forecasts and maps? Join 1000ís of others by becoming a Higgins premium member on our website > https://higginsstormchasing.com/higgins-storm-chasing-membÖ/


Another (Brisbane Weather):

Just been released by the bureau of meteorology

They are predicting a very active severe thunderstorm day with lots of warnings to be issued during the afternoon I hope everybody is prepared for what could be a very wild and busy afternoon

Very large hail is Likely with destructive windgust and very heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding

Depending on the movement of the trough we could see very dangerous thunderstorms which means you cannot rule out tornadoes

Stay safe everyone


And my personal favourite (also from BW). Severe storms meet left-wing:

Just remember Storms are not racist

Storms dont care about your skin colour, your brand of car, your house, your finances

Storms can kill

Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 20:15

Good grief!
Posted by: sharjay

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 20:15

Nice little spring storm for us just passed by. Not much rain it in but very very lightning active. Will anything else kick off later tonight when southerly pushes through
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 20:16

Yep bl**dy stupid and leads to mass complacency in the future when they don't come to fruition.
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 20:24

That dangerous cell on the Namoi radar is still maintaining strength and is growing in size as it heads towards Tamworth.
Posted by: sharjay

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 20:29

Is the southerly currently near coolangatta?
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 20:34

Yep according to Windy
https://www.windy.com/?-34.198,146.733,5
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 20:35

It is.
Posted by: sharjay

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 20:37

Thanks guys.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 20:38

Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Yep according to Windy
https://www.windy.com/?-34.198,146.733,5


Definitely agree that the southerly is there at the moment, but doesn't Windy use modelling rather than live obs?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 20:40

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Yep according to Windy
https://www.windy.com/?-34.198,146.733,5


Definitely agree that the southerly is there at the moment, but doesn't Windy use modelling rather than live obs?

Yep, it uses whatever model you select. But you can make it display real-time obs of certain parameters,

We wonít feel the coolness really kick in until daytime tomorrow. Muggy til then.
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 20:42

You can see the date and time on the bottom.Last update says 8pm
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 20:43

Holy cow that storm was so bad i cant remenber it
Thats just a major including mine a massive fail
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 20:44

Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
You can see the date and time on the bottom.Last update says 8pm


Thatís the forecast time for the selected model.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 20:48

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Below is the thunderstorm script output for the period between 9am today and 6am Thursday morning Stormwalker.

Most things still look good to me for today for numerous storms - the only things I can see that may or may not ruin it are:

1) somewhat dry'ish lower levels initially which may cause most storms to be high-based at first (but may develop lower bases later near the coast)
2) some capping near the coast

3) if activity initiates too early (but if it doesn't, that's great)
4) smaller mesoscale/storm-scale interactions not playing ball with the broadscale setup

Despite those factors, it still looks great for storms in a lot of areas & the steering is strong so there's a distinct possibility that storms could reach parts of the coast after being advected from the more favourable western & southern areas (e.g. Downs, Lockyer Valley, near & south of the QLD/NSW border, etc).
The non-severe storms should come from a WSW direction while any severe cells will deviate from this direction.

Some locations where previous activity hasn't settled down the atmosphere too much might also get further activity continuing through the overnight hours into early tomorrow due to the residual instability.


I think these have been relevant factors so far today.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 20:54

Thanks Ken
Just cant win a trick
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 20:55

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Below is the thunderstorm script output for the period between 9am today and 6am Thursday morning Stormwalker.

Most things still look good to me for today for numerous storms - the only things I can see that may or may not ruin it are:

1) somewhat dry'ish lower levels initially which may cause most storms to be high-based at first (but may develop lower bases later near the coast)
2) some capping near the coast

3) if activity initiates too early (but if it doesn't, that's great)
4) smaller mesoscale/storm-scale interactions not playing ball with the broadscale setup

Despite those factors, it still looks great for storms in a lot of areas & the steering is strong so there's a distinct possibility that storms could reach parts of the coast after being advected from the more favourable western & southern areas (e.g. Downs, Lockyer Valley, near & south of the QLD/NSW border, etc).
The non-severe storms should come from a WSW direction while any severe cells will deviate from this direction.

Some locations where previous activity hasn't settled down the atmosphere too much might also get further activity continuing through the overnight hours into early tomorrow due to the residual instability.


I think these have been relevant factors so far today.


Good stuff Ken, just a shame you were on the money.
Posted by: Flippy

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 20:57

[quote=Nature's Fury]I'm not sure why people expected so much from today or the media hyped up the event so much. The set-up for severe storms (not the garden variety) didn't look that promising on the modelling for most of SEQ for days now, which I've been grumbling about on here since the weekend.

Mate are you serious? Only a couple of days ago on MONDAY morning on this very thread, you posted how excited you were about Wednesday's storm prospects and how promising it looked?? Why say that back then and say this now?
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 20:59

Well

Cant believe how wrong the forcast has been
Oh well
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 21:00

Yeah Ken I think Point no1 was probably the most significant for up here especially with low humidity and dew points recorded for most of the day.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 21:01

Originally Posted By: Flippy
[quote=Nature's Fury]I'm not sure why people expected so much from today or the media hyped up the event so much. The set-up for severe storms (not the garden variety) didn't look that promising on the modelling for most of SEQ for days now, which I've been grumbling about on here since the weekend.

Mate are you serious? Only a couple of days ago on MONDAY morning on this very thread, you posted how excited you were about Wednesday's storm prospects and how promising it looked?? Why say that back then and say this now?


I was excited then. Not since haha.

08/10/2018 22:13

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Oh dear, Wednesday is turning on us based on all the recent model runs. What a shame.


09/10/2018 22:32

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
So tomorrow evening/night most of SEQ will get rain/storm action, but it looks a lot more complicated when it comes to severe potential.

It looks like we should see a hot and clear day, possibly well into the afternoon. The westerlies push almost to the coast keeping us dry, but not capped. A strong seabreeze arrives in the afternoon bringing a big injection of moisture and raising CAPE from almost zero to values approaching 2000 along coastal SEQ. This should create a 'Round 1' of storms forming along the seabreeze front in various parts of SEQ. There's a decent lapse rate, some helicity for turning winds and pretty strong easterly steering. There's a chance some of these storms could be severe, although I'm not convinced that we'll see an outbreak of supercells at this point.

Meanwhile the big show is getting started down south. The southerly should reach Byron by about 4 pm, GC around 7 and Brisbane by around 9. Overall it looks absolutely juicy for NE NSW with big instability, cold mids and freezing uppers and good shear. I expect there will be cells with destructive wind and giant hail down there, possibly a major line or supercell pushing NE out to sea off Byron or into GC.

Unfortunately, the timing of the southerly looks to be too late for us, but it should be enough for a decent 'Round 2'. I think all the major activity will exit NE through GC and smash the ocean with the rest of SEQ seeing a coastal-focused band of rain and storms push up the coast. The question is whether the energy will have been sucked out the atmosphere from the afternoon storms in SEQ north of GC. When was the last time we saw a really severe storm in Brisbane off a southerly change at night?

So in summary most of coastal SEQ should see storms significantly favouring GC and NE NSW for severe potential. The arrival of the southerly should then bring widespread rain to most of coastal SEQ.

I'm a little disappointed because this could have been a huge SEQ event if the southerly had arrived earlier, but not to be. There's enough unpredictability about tomorrow to still keep me guessing though. Would be very interested to hear Ken and other's thoughts.
Posted by: Stormwalker

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 21:04

Yeah NF was one of the earlier posters to cool on todayís prospects.

The optimist in me ignored him!!

P.s thanks Ken for the scripts! I appreciated it haha!
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 21:04

Originally Posted By: tsunami
Well

Cant believe how wrong the forcast has been
Oh well

The forecast wasnít actually that wrong. It was for thunderstorms in the region (which happened) and some possibly severe (borderline severe storms occurred with marble size hail and intense rainfall at places like Peachester and Tweed).

The whole ďjust because it didnít happen in my backyard, it didnít happenĒ principle applies here. Tweedstorm and some others on here and social media posted earlier that it definitely wasnít a fizzer where they were.

Whether people then want to classify it as an epic outbreak of supercells is something that the official forecasts arenít designed to cover.

P.S. youíre welcome Stormwalker smile
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 21:07

In BOM's defence they got the forecast spot on. Gusty storms, potentially severe. They weren't the ones forecasting the end of the world. Fools in the media and on FB started that nonsense.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 21:15

I say fair call ken. Very correct
Just so flamming frustrating to miss out completely with nothing over the last 5 days. Tanks empty grass dying. Today seemed such a hit
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 21:17

Originally Posted By: tsunami
I say fair call ken. Very correct
Just so flamming frustrating to miss out completely with nothing over the last 5 days. Tanks empty grass dying. Today seemed such a hit

Welcome to my area during almost every storm day lol
My expectations for my area are always extremely low.
Posted by: Timbuck

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 21:18

Yep. Plenty of flash bangs and gutters totally over flowing.
Nice late drenching and maybe a few more scuds to come.

Plenty of activity around today , so forecast was pretty spot on in my book watching NSW and SEQ activity unfold through out the day.

Hopefully the next few days will bring some more of the wet stuff to areaís and people that truely need it....other than Brisbane and Gold Coast lawns and gardens.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 21:19

Lots of wind here from the southerly. Just a few hours earlier and what might have been.
Posted by: Timbuck

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 21:41

100% agree. About 3pm would have been very interesting. Like always timing is everything.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 21:45

Think i may have a wee cry instead.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 22:00

The southerly has arrived much earlier than expected. Starting to think forcast rain wont happen
Might just wait before i put the grass seed down
Poor BOM. Its all bad for them
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 22:01

Access C nailed it .It went for storms between 5 and 7 pm and that's what occured
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 22:03

Originally Posted By: tsunami
The southerly has arrived much earlier than expected. Starting to think forcast rain wont happen
Might just wait before i put the grass seed down
Poor BOM. Its all bad for them

Itís arrived pretty much for when many models had it arriving.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 22:28

Yes ken
I had arriving 3am to 5am tommorrow.
Geuss my obs well out
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 10/10/2018 23:00

Thunderstorms are notoriously unpredictable. Let's hope the forecast rain comes off.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 00:29

Had a sudden thunderstorm here late this afternoon. It brought strong gusty winds (approx peaking around 65km/h) and heavy rain. 30.2mm since 9am this morning. Photo during the storm (once the wind died down a bit so I could stand on the front porch without getting the camera too wet) -


Great pics posted on here over the past few days, cheers.
Posted by: nocturnal1

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 04:29

A man lost his life, in his own home (just inland from Byron Bay) during last night's storms. Tree fell on his house; poor guy didn't stand a chance.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/2018/1...bringing-storms
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 06:50

Very sad news
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 07:16

1.5 mm from yesterdays & early morning efforts. That Atkinson Dam storm had a bit of guts to it, 2cm hail at Fernvale.
Really looking forward for some real substantial rain instead of a dripping tap! EC got some excellent falls for us, make it so!
Sad news indeed, comes back to no trees near houses, no matter what the tree huggers say.
Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 08:11

Was woken to what sounded like hail on the roof just after 1am. Only lasted about 5 minutes.

Sad to hear a man losing his life frown
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 08:16

Wynnum Nth rain since this thread began on 4th Oct - 15.8mm.

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..11 OCT 2018 TIME..0710

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......19.7C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........85%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........17C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED.....SE 3Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1016.2HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........5/8 cloud, increasing.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........1.6mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......26.8C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....17.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...16.9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....18C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1013.1Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..N 34kph at 1544
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Thunder heard to SW late afternoon - no TS locally, then brief TS overnight.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 08:56

32 mls of goodness from last night's thunderstorms and overnight showers time to spread this wet stuff further inland would be nice!
Posted by: Ahab

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 09:02

Wasn't it supposed to rain last night and this morning? Zero here.
Posted by: Pharbelle

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 09:03

23mm here in Burrum Heads overnight. Lots of CGs with a couple of flash bangs to get the heart racing a little. Still no puddles but greening up in the patches where I still have grass. Tanks 1/4 full and dam on 1/3.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 09:04

Originally Posted By: Ahab
Wasn't it supposed to rain last night and this morning? Zero here.

A number of places got lightning, thunder and rainfall overnight as some storm activity swept across. Have a look at the archived radar.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 09:19

Sad news indeed re that guy who was killed by the falling tree on his cabin.
In better news, the light show over the CBD last night was pretty spectacular.

We got some additional lightning & thunder here overnight (around 2:30am) when activity swept across some northern & southern parts of SE QLD as well as NE NSW.

I haven't had a chance to have a close look at today yet but a quick glance suggests a scattering of showers likely to redevelop in the region during the day. Some places could also get a thunderstorm (also helped by the westerly steering winds aloft) but the main focus for severe storms shifts further north & west as the cool change continues pushing through.

Over the coming days, showers still look likely to increase from time to time & possibly tend to rain areas at times but thereíll be periods when it wonít be raining. Should also become a lot cooler during the daytimes with max temps struggling to reach near 20C in a lot of places.
Eventually, some locations near the coast could even get some good falls developing.

Latest scenario from EC via windy and 24hr observed lightning via Landgate below:







And archived radar loop showing the additional showers/storms that swept across overnight:

http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR663-brisbane
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 09:33

Looks like a tricky few days with a convergence zone and hints of an ECL. Small changes could easily push the convergence zone or possible ECL around enough to make the difference between mostly fine and potential flooding for any specific location.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 11:31

Stapy livening up again to the west. Overcast, cool to warm & humid occasional Easterrly wind.

Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 11:57

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In my case the bearing was 4 mm inner 10 mm outer and 4 mm wide cost $1.99 each and free postage lol. here a link.
https://plaig.com.au/shop/index.php/brc-bearings-sizeb-metric-bearings-steel-c-22_26
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 12:16

Monstrous cell heading through Dalby at the moment, haven't seen something that big in a while.

Anyone in Kingaroy I'd have eyes to the S.
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 12:22

Originally Posted By: CirrusFibratus
Monstrous cell heading through Dalby at the moment, haven't seen something that big in a while.

Anyone in Kingaroy I'd have eyes to the S.


Its even black on the marburg radar. You know its a good one when thats happening
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 12:30

Looks like dalby just got smacked
Must be very very heavy rain or hail. The radar cant see through it
Any reports from there yet
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 12:32

Thanks doug
Posted by: nocturnal1

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 12:32

Yeah, just noticed that, I only checked the radar because my dog started panting (thunderstorm anxiety), so she's always my first alert to any storm activity, even if it's not local. That's a massive black core!
Posted by: nocturnal1

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 12:39

Originally Posted By: Adam Ant

Its even black on the marburg radar. You know its a good one when thats happening


I thought that as well... I've only ever seen the Marburg reach a maximum intensity of red/maroon (where the Stapy has rendered it black). So, that's a worry! Must be getting smashed out there.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 12:47

The gympie radar is showing it well
Posted by: sharjay

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 12:53

That cell has been labelled on facebook as a supercell, tornado cannot be ruled out, if you are in it's path, seek shelter immediately as the damage path will be significant. WOW.
Posted by: Dipole

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 12:54

BOM, 22 minutes ago has the arrow pointing straight at Kingaroy. "This thunderstorm is very dangerous".
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 13:01

It honestly doesn't feel like a storm day up here today. Cloudy, breeze is cool from the SE and only 26.5C. I don't have time to check more in-depth but certainly not the type of conditions I was expecting to wake up to earlier this morning.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 13:02

That storm approaching Kingaroy is seriously nasty. I've never seen Marburg maxed out on black, and with a large blob of it as well. GFS shows lots of shear and helicity out there with very cold mids and uppers. They could get anything from giant hail to tornadoes.

I'm pretty sure we have some posters from near Kingaroy. I hope they can share some obs after the fact, but for now I'd be worried for their safety.

Looks like a decent rain band coming across SEQ. All the severe stuff will be north and well inland today, but rain is most welcome. This event still keeps on giving.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 13:14

Looks like yesterdays forecast might be coming to fruition locally.
Posted by: pkgjmg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 13:18

christ almighty what a beast heading for Kingaroy - praying that everyone will be ok .... that's 1 nasty nasty looking beast ...

very over cast here at the moment, had a couple of rumbles in the distance but that's about it .. not as muggy or humid as yesterday ... the air is completely still ....
Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 13:18

Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Looks like yesterdays forecast might be coming to fruition locally.


Not wrong. Looking like we might be in for some fun with what is unfolding.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 13:22

We'll let you know.

It's freakin black out there.
Posted by: pkgjmg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 13:23

stay safe Kazz, it looks nasty on radar can only imagine what it looks like face to face ..

oh more deep deep rumbles here at Beenleigh ......


Originally Posted By: Kazz63
We'll let you know.

It's freakin black out there.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 13:28

Working in a bloody big shed; its gonna be wonderful grr
Posted by: Pharbelle

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 13:29

Chinchilla is in for a drop from the following cell.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 13:31

Originally Posted By: Pharbelle
Chinchilla is in for a drop from the following cell.
Just watching that it seems to be pushing up on this cell.

Can someone give me links to a wind map? I'm at work and haven't got all the links with me.

Edit: lol Just found them on WZ dopey me.
Posted by: pkgjmg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 13:31

jebus! i just looked at the SINGLE radar image and the black core almost stretches from Kingaroy to Nanango!!!!!!!!!! probably quite a distance really between them but on the radar it just looks impressive to see a black core that big!

@kazz - bloody hell - i hope you have some where to shelter in that big shed if it get's too hairy!
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 13:34

Originally Posted By: pkgjmg
jebus! i just looked at the SINGLE radar image and the black core almost stretches from Kingaroy to Nanango!!!!!!!!!! probably quite a distance really between them but on the radar it just looks impressive to see a black core that big!

@kazz - bloody hell - i hope you have some where to shelter in that big shed if it get's too hairy!


The black core is about 25 km wide - pretty amazing. It looks like it might just go between Kingaroy and Nanango, sparing both.

BOM warning requesting SEWS. Also says Weather Situation: Very large hail (larger than golf balls) is likely within the core of this thunderstorm.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 13:42

I reckon Lani's seedlings would be having a nice drink of nitrogen enriched liquid gold at the moment.
Posted by: pkgjmg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 13:49

i tell ya what someone must have been looking out for Kingaroy and Nanango - went right between them and just scrapping Nanango by the looks on radar ....

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: pkgjmg
jebus! i just looked at the SINGLE radar image and the black core almost stretches from Kingaroy to Nanango!!!!!!!!!! probably quite a distance really between them but on the radar it just looks impressive to see a black core that big!

@kazz - bloody hell - i hope you have some where to shelter in that big shed if it get's too hairy!


The black core is about 25 km wide - pretty amazing. It looks like it might just go between Kingaroy and Nanango, sparing both.

BOM warning requesting SEWS. Also says Weather Situation: Very large hail (larger than golf balls) is likely within the core of this thunderstorm.
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 13:50

Or Hughie's really got it in for Coolabunia and Booie! Fingers crossed the damage isn't too bad out there.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 13:52

I wouldn't be surprised if there's the odd embedded tornado in that cell.
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 13:57

dalby got some nice rain.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 13:58

Storm just sitting over Bracken Ridge at 1255. Nice cracks of thunder.
Radar is looking thick and beefy as mentioned there is pretty nasty winds showing on Doppler.
Hopefully no more fatalities or injuries from this round.
Posted by: mysteriousbrad

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 13:58

Looks like the storm has blocked the D'aguilar Highway south of Kingaroy.. dare say trees down.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 13:59

Looks like it has some company now with another popping up out near Chinchilla. Tornadoes are certainly possible.
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:02

http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weatherstation.cgi?station=11489

111km/h gust at Jimbour . Wow
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:05

Latest STW as mentioned SEWS to be used but at the end of the warning tennis ball size hail reported.

Transmitters serving the area for Wondai, Cherbourg, Proston, Goomeri and Gympie are REQUESTED TO USE THE STANDARD EMERGENCY WARNING SIGNAL BEFORE BROADCASTING THIS MESSAGE.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
for DESTRUCTIVE WINDS and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in parts of Gympie, Somerset, Western Downs and South Burnett Council Areas.

Issued at 1:00 pm Thursday, 11 October 2018.
Weather Situation: A very dangerous thunderstorm northeast of Kingaroy is expected to continue its northeast track towards Gympie. Another developing thunderstorm northeast of Chinchilla is also expected to intensify further as it moves towards Cherboug and Gayndah. Very large hail is expected within the core of these cells.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 1:00 pm, very dangerous thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near the area northeast of Kingaroy, the area north of Nanango and the area between Nanango and Goomeri. These thunderstorms are moving towards the northeast. Very dangerous thunderstorms are forecast to affect the ranges between Gympie and Murgon, Elgin Vale, the area northwest of Jimna and the area east of Murgon by 1:30 pm and Gympie, the area southwest of Gympie, the area south of Gympie and the area northwest of Gympie by 2:00 pm.
Destructive winds and large hailstones are likely.
Tennis ball size hail (up to 7cm) was reported at Kumbia around midday.
Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:11

Will this 2nd line hit Kingaroy...
Posted by: pkgjmg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:14

BOM now reporting TENNIS BALL sized hail ..... and now a 2nd supercell near Chinchilla incoming as well ..... not a good afternoon for sunshine coast and inland .....

thundering, lightning and drizzle rain here - quite nice
Posted by: Timbuck

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:19

V-notch in the Gympie cell at 1:19pm ???
Posted by: Timbuck

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:20

Last frame sure looks like onestarting in the NE edge. Few more frames we might see it.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:26

Wow that gympie radar looks scary
Posted by: mysteriousbrad

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:26

Reports of 3 People in Car on the D'aguilar highway injured from hail smashing glass etc. Owch.

Edit: located just north of Nanango near the Golf Course.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:27

Originally Posted By: weatheriam
Will this 2nd line hit Kingaroy...


If it survives my guess is it will take a line towards Tiaro / Maryborough.
Posted by: DNO

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:28

I got caught in the Kingaroy storm just south of town. Trees down everywhere on Bunya highway & Stuart Valley drive. Prob 20c size hail was the biggest I saw. The car is a mess frown
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:29

That sucks DNO :-( No injuries at least?
Posted by: pkgjmg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:30

cars can be fixed your life can't ... glad you are ok, sorry about your car tho frown ....

Originally Posted By: DNO
I got caught in the Kingaroy storm just south of town. Trees down everywhere on Bunya highway & Stuart Valley drive. Prob 20c size hail was the biggest I saw. The car is a mess frown
Posted by: DNO

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:35

Yep all good. 20mm of rain here at home but would have been double or more where I saw the best of it.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:36

That second one is looking like some serious rotation is going on.
Posted by: Foehn Correspondent

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:41

Kumbia State School is reporting significiant window damage to a number of classrooms at the school. (All the students are ok) Phone lines down in the district.

Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:41

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
That second one is looking like some serious rotation is going on.


Wobbling all over the place!
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:43

Check out these photos. Trees completely defoliated:


https://www.facebook.com/leoniegaye16/posts/10155862253743339
Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:45

Completely shredded shocked
Posted by: pkgjmg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:45

just seen those pics Ken - omg what a mess - thank god the towns were spared, imagine the damage frown now let's hope they die in the bum before getting to Gayndah and Gympie!

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Check out these photos. Trees completely defoliated:


https://www.facebook.com/leoniegaye16/posts/10155862253743339
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:45

Wynnum Nth rain 8.2mm.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:55

Little place called Melrose looking down the barrel. Very nasty.
Posted by: Bone Dry

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:56

Looks like it's going to be a left right combination from where I'm sitting.

Chainsaws are fueled and ready to go.
Posted by: HigherPerspectiv

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:56

Nasty! The eastern most cell looks to be re-organising again. Perhaps some suspicous returns on doppler during it's travels. There's another cell forming in front of it, on a 90 degree course.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:57

Proston looks like it might take a direct hit also.
Posted by: HigherPerspectiv

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:58

Hook echo now?
Posted by: chamellieon

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:59

We have friends in Proston, they're all taking shelter now.
It's not a rich area, this is going to hit them hard
Posted by: explorer

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 14:59

tree tops are starting to rustle around here ... hoping we will miss the worst of it ... just west of Coolum Beach ...
Posted by: Timbuck

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:00


Yep. Hold on to your hat.

I have a mate at mothar mt he is doing the same.

That 2nd cell must have great structure ... looking forward to seeing some pics of it.
Posted by: Bone Dry

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:02

Just starting to rain now.
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:04

Just missed us at home, only 5mm of rain and doesnr look like there was any hail. Not a drop at work on the west side of town, but could still hear the roar of the hail. Just a few ks to the south east got smashed though. Equal to or slightly worse then the boxing day storm from all accounts, especially since it hit a more populated area.
Posted by: Bone Dry

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:04

Not a breath of wind at the moment, feels like the absolute proverbial ..
Posted by: Foehn Correspondent

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:07

Originally Posted By: LightningGus
Just missed us at home, only 5mm of rain and doesnr look like there was any hail. Not a drop at work on the west side of town, but could still hear the roar of the hail. Just a few ks to the south east got smashed though. Equal to or slightly worse then the boxing day storm from all accounts, especially since it hit a more populated area.


Hi Lightning Gus - I see that Kingaroy Airport had a number of gusts up to 91 kph and thats still about 6 kms from Coolabunia where Ken's linked photos were taken.
Posted by: HigherPerspectiv

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:08

Gympie cell now has a definite hook, although doppler is showing it has weaked slightly.
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:08

Mrs LDR is at Centro in Gympie, the power just went out, hail coming down and the ground is shaking.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:09

I really hope there are storm chasers out there or there are some good pictures/footage that emerges. These are extreme storms.

That Gympie cell has a massive V-notch now and there'll be hit by the northern end. Melrose looks like it will get the other cell. Despite that it looks like the storms have generally avoided a lot of populated areas so far.

I thought NE NSW or GC would have seen supercells like this yesterday.
Posted by: Sandbank

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:09

Hitting friends in Gympie right this minute....they seemed well prepared. Hoping everyone else is there too.
Posted by: pkgjmg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:10

these are dangerous storms indeed ... that gympie cell looks like the mother of all cells - it's shaped like a V atm ... some of the pictures and videos coming out are just astonishing!
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:11

Originally Posted By: HigherPerspectiv
Gympie cell now has a definite hook, although doppler is showing it has weaked slightly.


The area to its south that went through Eumundi was strengthening and turning also. I'd imagine it's going to be a bit of a mess down there in places.
Posted by: Snowmaker

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:12

There is some serious hook shape to both of those storms now. Melrose and Gympie to take a direct hit
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:14

Rains getting heavy in Noosa now, incredible green colour everywhere
Posted by: Foehn Correspondent

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:14

I can only find one web cam in Gympie and it is a traffic camera. Just a white out there at the moent although the traffic lights which you can just see are still working.

https://qldtraffic.qld.gov.au/cameras.html
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:15

Hail the size of tennis balls at Kumbia SW of Kingaroy from BOM . and both storms now listed as dangerous.
Posted by: explorer

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:16

Really heavy rain hitting us now ... started a few minutes ago ... lots of thunder and very dark still
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:20

Looks like Wolvi is about to cop it .Stay safe Bone dry
Posted by: Sandbank

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:20

Hail damage in Gympie...cars etc.
Posted by: grayarea

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:22

Very heavy rain here in Noosa. That and thunder thankfully is all. Concern about Gympie and the towns north of here.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:24

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Check out these photos. Trees completely defoliated:


https://www.facebook.com/leoniegaye16/posts/10155862253743339

The building in the background behind the shredded trees is Coolabunia State School.
Our guys just came through there & said the windows are all smashed; kids still in the classrooms & the Fire Brigade are getting them out .
Must have been scary for them; the only thing there is the school; no other houses around it.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:26

Another cell hitting us at Bracken Ridge at 1423. Just good rain and solid rumbles. I think unfortunately by looking at the radar there will be more damage to the North. Stay safe everyone up there.
Posted by: HigherPerspectiv

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:29

Insane! Hook has been there for an hour now! Another potential supercell also near Goondiwindi. Family there say it's very green, with a well developed wall cloud.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:30

Woolvi on Gympie 64km -deadset bullseye.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:32

Gympie got nailed. Footage of house windows being broken by golf ball hail. John Madill won't be too happy at the Toyota dealership.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:33

I did a screen capture of the Doppler radar and normal .
Posted by: grayarea

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:37

https://www.facebook.com/matthew.pratt.165/videos/1875638372474066/

Footage from Gympie
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:39

90k winds just west of Rainbow beach now. seems determined to head to Rainbow with more NE swing.
Posted by: Sandbank

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:39

Great footage grayarea.....
Posted by: batty

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:44

ditto. still sweltering here but windy
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:50

Is the storm impacting Goomeri at present forming a tornado to its NW??
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:51

Kingaroy must have a shield up or something, everywhere else has been smashed by hail and wind, all we've had is just a bit of rain and noise which is good I suppose.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:53

Just had a look out my office door and there are good looking towers going up towards Goondiwindi. So expect something from that later.
Posted by: MG4R

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:53

I cannot remember a recent time where so many black cores formed to the NW of the Sunny Coast - Gympie. Quite extraordinary! Goomeri and Kilkivan are in direct line of what looks to be a nasty storm. Wouldn't be surprised if they get caught up in a tornado.
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:54

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Is the storm impacting Goomeri at present forming a tornado to its NW??


That looks nasty for sure, fingers crossed they don't get too much damage
Posted by: HigherPerspectiv

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:55

Goondiwindi cell has a defined wall cloud with lowerings. Sister-in-law is just north of it now
Posted by: MG4R

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:56

Big dog Higgins is livestreaming for those interested. Looks NASTY
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:59

Looks like a third one might get going further west.
Posted by: MG4R

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 15:59

Live radar has a really big hook at Goomeri/Murgon/surrounds. I haven't seen anything like it.
Posted by: pkgjmg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 16:10

the wind here is howling - and COLD it's FREEZING .....
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 16:10

Wow wow wow that Rainbow Beach storm intensified massively as it exited. Incredible supercell and it's travelled over 200 km.

The Goomeri cell needs to head more NE or it'll lose puff as it moves over the same energy-depleted track the Rainbow Beach supercell tracked across.

Also a lot of strong cells forming inland in NSW. Seems unlikely but wonder if anything might have the strength to make it to the coast.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 16:10

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Looks like a third one might get going further west.

Yeah if you set the Radar to a 6 hour window you will see they all start up around the same area, slightly North each time & they grow from there.
I saw the second one very early & warned my Daughter to drive home to Wondai; thank gawd. It's developed into a beast as well.
The third one looks similar; we'll see where the winds take it.
Posted by: Sandbank

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 16:15

Tiaro in the line of fire if it makes it that far.
Posted by: Snowmaker

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 16:15

That Higgins live stream was possibly one of the most intense thing I have ever watched... gave me goosebumps. He looked to be in quite a bit of danger
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 16:17

wild pic from the Goondiwindi cell- https://scontent.fbne6-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v...b1f&oe=5C427F1C
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 16:18

Damn, Gympie radar looks fantastic. I am stuck at work and my view faces NE. frown
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 16:24

Originally Posted By: Mega
Damn, Gympie radar looks fantastic. I am stuck at work and my view faces NE. frown


Next one will come close to you. The stronger storms are moving NE rather than E. It'll stay strong if it stays NE because it's been clear most of the day. Get us a pic if you can!

- Tennis ball size hail (up to 7cm) was reported at Kumbia around midday.

- 4 to 5cm hail reported between Proston and Murgon

- 3 to 5cm hail reported at and near Gympie

- Vast property and vegetation damage across all affected towns
Posted by: HigherPerspectiv

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 16:27

Strong tornado reported to have gone through Tansey.
Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 16:28

Originally Posted By: MG4R
Live radar has a really big hook at Goomeri/Murgon/surrounds. I haven't seen anything like it.


That is impressive! Going to pack a punch :S
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 16:28

Maryborough better lookout!
Stay safe!
Posted by: HigherPerspectiv

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 16:31

Higgins Storm Chasing

3:25PM - A TORNADO PRODUCING SUPERCELL is tracking North East from Tansey towards the North of Tiaro. This cell has produced a CONFIRMED tornado with HIGH LEVELS OF DESTRUCTION in Tansey. Giant Hail, destructive winds and heavy rain are LIKELY!

Jeff and Sara are okay and safe.
Posted by: MG4R

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 16:31

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ21035.shtml

Higs probably reported the tornado but the way the sky was on his livestream I 100% belive it.
Posted by: zuldjan

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 16:32

Not something you see often:

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
for DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, LARGE HAILSTONES and TORNADOES
For people in parts of Gympie Council Area.

Issued at 3:27 pm Thursday, 11 October 2018.
THIS INCLUDES A TORNADO WARNING.
TORNADO WARNING


Weather Situation: Very dangerous thunderstorms northwest of Kilkivan - expected to continue their northeast track. Very large hail and destructive winds with tornado are expected within the core of these cells.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 3:25 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near the ranges between Gympie and Murgon, Goomeri, Kilkivan and the area north of Goomeri. These thunderstorms are moving towards the northeast. They are forecast to affect the area northwest of Gympie and the area north of Kilkivan by 3:55 pm and Bauple, the area north of Gympie and Mount Kanighan by 4:25 pm.
Destructive winds, large hailstones and a tornado are likely.
- TORNADO reported southwest Tansey (northwest of Murgon)
- Tennis ball size hail (up to 7cm) was reported at Kumbia around midday.
- 4 to 5cm hail reported between Proston and Murgon
- 3 to 5cm hail reported at and near Gympie
- Vast property and vegetation damage across all affected towns
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 16:38

Emergency vehicles stuck in hail out near Chinchilla! 8.5mm here during a quick thunderstorm around midnight. Looks like activity out to our west....
Posted by: MG4R

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 16:39

Looking like the early stages of something trying to form at Proston. Itís tracking slightly NE, so following the correct trends to the tornado/super cells we are seeing at Tansey.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 16:41

I hope Mega has put the car undercover.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 16:47

For history's sake:

Quote:
Transmitters serving the area for TIARO, MARYBOROUGH AND HERVEY BAY are REQUESTED TO USE THE STANDARD EMERGENCY WARNING SIGNAL BEFORE BROADCASTING THIS MESSAGE.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, LARGE HAILSTONES and TORNADOES
For people in Wide Bay and Burnett, Darling Downs and Granite Belt and parts of Central Highlands and Coalfields, Capricornia, Maranoa and Warrego and Southeast Coast Forecast Districts.
Issued at 3:35 pm Thursday, 11 October 2018.

THIS INCLUDES A TORNADO WARNING.
TORNADO WARNING FOR TIARO, MARYBOROUGH AND HERVEY BAY

Weather Situation: A very dangerous thunderstorm with an observed tornado at Tansey (NE of Murgon) is expected to continue its northeast track.
A recently developed thunderstorm, north of Miles is expected to intensify futher and produce similar conditions as it tracks northeast over the next few hours.
Severe thunderstorms are developing across the southern Darling Downs. Forecast to develop and extend north during the afternoon. History of hail near Goondiwindi.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce destructive winds, large hailstones and tornadoes over the next several hours in the Wide Bay and Burnett, Darling Downs and Granite Belt and parts of the Central Highlands and Coalfields, Capricornia, Maranoa and Warrego and Southeast Coast districts. Locations which may be affected include Dalby, Gympie, Bundaberg, Goondiwindi, Kingaroy, Hervey Bay, Cherbourg and Tara.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce destructive winds and large hailstones over the next several hours in parts of the Central Highlands and Coalfields, Wide Bay and Burnett and Darling Downs and Granite Belt districts. Locations which may be affected include Hervey Bay, Cherbourg, Gayndah, Maryborough, Mundubbera, Gin Gin and Tiaro.


Quote:
Transmitters serving the area for Rainbow Beach, Maryborough, Mt Joseph and Hervey Bay are REQUESTED TO USE THE STANDARD EMERGENCY WARNING SIGNAL BEFORE BROADCASTING THIS MESSAGE.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
for DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, LARGE HAILSTONES and TORNADOES
For people in parts of Gympie Council Area.
Issued at 3:27 pm Thursday, 11 October 2018.

THIS INCLUDES A TORNADO WARNING.
TORNADO WARNING

Weather Situation: Very dangerous thunderstorms northwest of Kilkivan - expected to continue their northeast track. Very large hail and destructive winds with tornado are expected within the core of these cells.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 3:25 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near the ranges between Gympie and Murgon, Goomeri, Kilkivan and the area north of Goomeri. These thunderstorms are moving towards the northeast. They are forecast to affect the area northwest of Gympie and the area north of Kilkivan by 3:55 pm and Bauple, the area north of Gympie and Mount Kanighan by 4:25 pm.
Destructive winds, large hailstones and a tornado are likely.
- TORNADO reported southwest Tansey (northwest of Murgon)
- Tennis ball size hail (up to 7cm) was reported at Kumbia around midday.
- 4 to 5cm hail reported between Proston and Murgon
- 3 to 5cm hail reported at and near Gympie
- Vast property and vegetation damage across all affected towns
Posted by: WeatherNut96

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 16:49

I'm in Hervey Bay today, looks to be a bad day to of travelled.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 16:53

When I saw this amount of shear going through that region this morning on stormcast I was quite worried about what might eventuate. Hope everyone on your side of the border is doing alright.
I wonder what the Bureau will rate that tornado on the Enhanced-Fujita Scale.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 16:55

I believe i saw a definite black spot (core) in the circulation that formed nw of Goomeri. Amazing weather day.
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 16:59

Is that another (much smaller) hook forming now?
Posted by: MG4R

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:03

Originally Posted By: LDRcycles
Is that another (much smaller) hook forming now?


I believe not. There is some convergence of systems moving East and North-East
Posted by: gberg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:05

Hey guys I've been out amongst it all near Murgon, the first one went 20ks to my south and the 2nd i only got a glancing blow, torrential rain but wasn't much wind. Such a hard chase day with you not being able to see a shelf cloud until you're in harms way. A lot of low cloud was getting sucked in though which looked amazing.now i have to see if i can get home to noosa!
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:06

Originally Posted By: MG4R
Originally Posted By: LDRcycles
Is that another (much smaller) hook forming now?


I believe not. There is some convergence of systems moving East and North-East


That was my other guess.

ABC news radio just mentioned the tornado warning, and said 3 people have been taken to Kingaroy hospital for minor cuts after their windscreen was smashed by the hail at Coolabunia.


EDIT: can't wait to see the pics gberg, stay safe out there!
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:06

Loosing some of its puff on radar? I hope! Amazing speed, it be in Hervey Bay in 3/4hr at that rate.
Posted by: pkgjmg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:08

higgins and his partner got caught in Tansey they reversed into a farmers shed, had that shed not been there - lives would have been lost for sure ... the video at the end is just incredible - hopefully he will have learnt a valuable lesson today!!!!
Posted by: FoggyNights

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:09

Yes. I was watching as well. Very hairy situation.
Posted by: sharjay

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:13

His video at the end gave me goose bumps. Scary scary stuff. Amazing to watch tho
Posted by: Kino

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:13

Originally Posted By: pkgjmg
higgins and his partner got caught in Tansey they reversed into a farmers shed, had that shed not been there - lives would have been lost for sure ... the video at the end is just incredible - hopefully he will have learnt a valuable lesson today!!!!


Unlikely
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:14

lives wouldve been lost for sure??? thats a stretch. looked like fading but maryborough not out of the woods yet , lets see what that cell does.
Posted by: BeenAround

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:17

Pretty textbook signature...

[img]https://imgur.com/a/mss3go5[/img]

[img]https://imgur.com/a/WG1xjye[/img]


Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:18

Originally Posted By: BIG T
lives wouldve been lost for sure??? thats a stretch. looked like fading but maryborough not out of the woods yet , lets see what that cell does.


Maybe just a temporary disruption from the hills around Tiaro? The one that went through Gympie did the same then cleared its throat again afterwards.
Posted by: MG4R

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:18

Higgins is always a crisis merchant. The video did show a tornado but the only way a life would have been lost in their car was in hail struck him in the head or something flew through the window. Pretty sure he ended the stream on his own accord.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:18

Oh crap, grew some more teeth & beeline for Maryborough. Good grief, terrible!
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:24

Hell's teeth! Not Maryborough!
Posted by: sharjay

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:26

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Oh crap, grew some more teeth & beeline for Maryborough. Good grief, terrible!

yep looking real nasty again
Posted by: Sandbank

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:26

Jesus wept ! Hang on Maryborough folk - from an ex Bundy boy.
Posted by: MG4R

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:26

Oh jeez, itís intensifying for Maryborough worse than it did for Rainbow Beach earlier today.
Posted by: BeenAround

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:27

Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:28

Disaster, poor people. Most probably dont realise whats coming. :-(
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:29

and looks like it is now CF. I bet the old mate farmer thought , who is this flog parked next to me shed thats carrying on.
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:30

What a ridiculous afternoon of storms. Maryborough about to get spanked and the supercell responsible for trashing Dalby thru to Gympie is now dropping hail on the fish a few hundred k's off fraser island. And there is still more cells firing out near dalby!
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:35

Have to keep an eye on the Maryborough weatherstation. Some interesting data I bet.
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:36

What happened to the Goondiwindi cell, I wasn't paying attention to it and looks like it's fizzled out.

There's one west of Theodore that's building up but taking it's sweet time getting anywhere.
Posted by: pkgjmg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:40

my sister in law and her hubby live hervey bay and she's just msg'd me saying they've just received an OFFICIAL phone call warning them of possible embedded tornadoes in the cell heading for them that's just gone/going through maryborough ....
Posted by: Foehn Correspondent

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:43

Just looked at the two traffic cams in Maryborough which are close to the centre of town. Certainly some very heavy rain, but no trees down, can't see any hail and the power looks to be still on.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:46

40kt gust Maryborough BOM weatherstation.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:46

The storm looks to have significantly weakened just as it hit Maryborough. On the radar it still looks decent (although the black core has broken up), but on the Doppler it's completely lost its wind strength.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:50

Originally Posted By: MG4R
Higgins is always a crisis merchant. The video did show a tornado but the only way a life would have been lost in their car was in hail struck him in the head or something flew through the window. Pretty sure he ended the stream on his own accord.
In that wind there would be a distinct possibility of his over inflated ego taking flight & slapping him down. It may well have been in danger when you think about it.
I wouldn't want to get hit by that!!
Posted by: Timbuck

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:50

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
The storm looks to have significantly weakened just as it hit Maryborough. On the radar it still looks decent (although the black core has broken up), but on the Doppler it's completely lost its wind strength.


Yep. Agreed. That was a bit of luck for sure.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:53

Originally Posted By: LightningGus
What a ridiculous afternoon of storms. Maryborough about to get spanked and the supercell responsible for trashing Dalby thru to Gympie is now dropping hail on the fish a few hundred k's off fraser island. And there is still more cells firing out near dalby!

I know; I may get away from work yet & be home for the next ones.
Speaking of work, the calls for emergency electrical fixes are coming in. Tomorrow is gonna be worse. and the next few months!
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:56

There's an interesting video or Cooloola Cove Woolworths doing the rounds. More water in the store than outside.

EDIT.... Just found it.. ****LANGUAGE WARNING****

https://www.facebook.com/abcinbrisbane/videos/2324095770996029/?t=1
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:56

Hervey Bay might be in with a shot to catch some of this. The black cell has consolidated in the north-west quadrant and that might drag it up just enough to the N/NW.

After all the frustrations and misses Mega will never complain about storms in WBB again after today lol!
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 17:57

Hahaha NF
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 18:02

That cell won't die. It's reorganisng itself again and heading to Hervey Bay.
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 18:07

Originally Posted By: Foehn Correspondent
Originally Posted By: LightningGus
Just missed us at home, only 5mm of rain and doesnr look like there was any hail. Not a drop at work on the west side of town, but could still hear the roar of the hail. Just a few ks to the south east got smashed though. Equal to or slightly worse then the boxing day storm from all accounts, especially since it hit a more populated area.


Hi Lightning Gus - I see that Kingaroy Airport had a number of gusts up to 91 kph and thats still about 6 kms from Coolabunia where Ken's linked photos were taken.

Hi Foehn just saw your comment and I think my house dodged a massive bullet with this one. There is severe wind damage just a few hundred meters down the road but barely a twig has been dislodged at my place. If there is some sort of storm shield over my place I'm very thankful for it today! Less than 5km away roofs have been lost, farmland and bush severely damaged, stock and birds injured and killed. Really sad to see frown Will be out that way tomorrow so I'll post a few damage pics on here if I get time.
Posted by: Foehn Correspondent

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 18:10

Glad you didn't suffer any damage and that everyone is okay LG.
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 18:15

Also devastating to see that fruit growers in the kumbia district have had there trees damaged/destroyed for the second time in less than 12 months (first was the boxing day last year storm). Absolutely heartbreaking for them. You'd think that 2 damaging supercells over exactly the same area 9 months apart from each other would be unusual. I love a good storm but they seem to be getting more and more severe up this way and I never want to see anything like what happened today over my place. Hopefully I never will and this isn't a sign of things to come...

Anyway enough rambling from me and the good news is we've had 10mm of non-severe rain this arvo which is fantastic stuff for the tanks and gardens.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 18:18

Watching the cell south-west of Gayndah. If it stays clear in front it could build strongly much like the others and put Childers and Bundaberg in the firing line. Starting to look like a lot of clutter though so that might be all for the supercells in WBB today.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 18:19

https://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/severe-warning-damaging-winds-hail-looming/3546892/
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 18:27

50 to 60mm would be good. The dangerous thing is that everytime Kingaroy is under a warning, nothing happens apart from a bit of rain and that's how people get complacent.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 18:27

Man, did we get Smashed! Supercell storm, massive rain, wind, hail. Filled our front dam in 1/2 hour! Everyone is ok thank goodness just trees down everywhere. Thank god I was home as our dogs little shed is gone 😢 she would have been too if I wasnít here! The noise on the roof was beyond terrifying, the hail is in 4 foot drifts against our sheds, noise on the roof was unbelievable. Nearly 6 hours later there is still hail against the sheds. I think we got a few bruised bums in the paddock but nothing worse thank god. Lost our clothesline and a few solar lights lol but a bit of good fortune saved our large shed ie: a car was parked in front of the big doors and was the only reason they didnít blow in! We measured 48mm at the back, I reckon closer to 80mm as rain wasnít just horizontal it was going up I swear. Front gauge was kind of not working lol. Had 3 little storms rock over since.
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 18:43

Good to see people get some good rain apart from the storm damage.I have had the grand total of 2mm for the event so far and I can't really see where we will get much more from,over the next few days.Maybe a few stray showers.Most of the good stuff will still fall nth of the sunshine coast for the next 3 days.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 18:44

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Hervey Bay might be in with a shot to catch some of this. The black cell has consolidated in the north-west quadrant and that might drag it up just enough to the N/NW.

After all the frustrations and misses Mega will never complain about storms in WBB again after today lol!


Still doesn't come close to 2004's storm but it was still cool. Plenty of wind and the hail not quite as big as golf balls. And one day of severe storms through the district doesn't make up for the countless summer 'storm' days where nothing happens through this region. poke

Anyway, who's seen the latest EC? Deep trough / ECL anyone?
Posted by: storms95

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 18:51

Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Hervey Bay might be in with a shot to catch some of this. The black cell has consolidated in the north-west quadrant and that might drag it up just enough to the N/NW.

After all the frustrations and misses Mega will never complain about storms in WBB again after today lol!


Still doesn't come close to 2004's storm but it was still cool. Plenty of wind and the hail not quite as big as golf balls. And one day of severe storms through the district doesn't make up for the countless summer 'storm' days where nothing happens through this region. poke

Anyway, who's seen the latest EC? Deep trough / ECL anyone?


After what has been an interesting week of storms, I was actually about to mention the fact that an East coast low is looking quite a possibility this weekend off the Fraser/Sunshine coast. At the moment models are painting 50-200mm of rain from Bundaberg all the way down to the border with areas north of about Brisbane being hardest hit. Defiantly something to watch!
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 18:58

The recent EC run is probably the best I've seen so far. Troughing with a little ECL spawning in Moreton Bay and decaying south inland. Most of coastal SEQ looking at 150+ from that.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:00

Some further activity approaching the southwestern parts of SEQ atm after having just past Warwick, etc.

Also for anyone who isn't aware yet:

Mt Stapylton experienced a complex electrical fault on Tuesday (9 October) which was isolated and temporarily repaired on Wednesday (10 October). The faulty power supply will be replaced on Friday (12 October). A short outage of one hour is expected while these works are undertaken.
Posted by: Pharbelle

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:01

Power has been out for the past hour here and just came back on. Only just started raining on and off.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:04

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Some further activity approaching the southwestern parts of SEQ atm after having just past Warwick, etc.

Also for anyone who isn't aware yet:

Mt Stapylton experienced a complex electrical fault on Tuesday (9 October) which was isolated and temporarily repaired on Wednesday (10 October). The faulty power supply will be replaced on Friday (12 October). A short outage of one hour is expected while these works are undertaken.


Achtung baby!
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:04

Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
50 to 60mm would be good. The dangerous thing is that everytime Kingaroy is under a warning, nothing happens apart from a bit of rain and that's how people get complacent.

That may happen in larger towns/cities but in Kingaroy, we're small enough that everyone knows someone who has been affected by damage with any storm event I have seen in the past few years.
I don't really see any complacency in that way.
what I do see however is the 'throw away society' mentality.
That's the one where they say "Oh it's OK it's insured anyway." So they are less likely to worry about moving cars to safety. Less likely to worry about things being blown away etc.
WHat they forget about it the damage/harm caused, probably to other people down the road that could have easily been avoided.

Ah well let's see what the morning brings I guess.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:05

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
......
Also for anyone who isn't aware yet:

Mt Stapylton experienced a complex electrical fault on Tuesday (9 October) which was isolated and temporarily repaired on Wednesday (10 October). The faulty power supply will be replaced on Friday (12 October). A short outage of one hour is expected while these works are undertaken.


lol
I'll send a card & a bowl of fruit huh?
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:09

Originally Posted By: Lani
Man, did we get Smashed! Supercell storm, massive rain, wind, hail. Filled our front dam in 1/2 hour! Everyone is ok thank goodness just trees down everywhere. Thank god I was home as our dogs little shed is gone 😢 she would have been too if I wasnít here! The noise on the roof was beyond terrifying, the hail is in 4 foot drifts against our sheds, noise on the roof was unbelievable. Nearly 6 hours later there is still hail against the sheds. I think we got a few bruised bums in the paddock but nothing worse thank god. Lost our clothesline and a few solar lights lol but a bit of good fortune saved our large shed ie: a car was parked in front of the big doors and was the only reason they didnít blow in! We measured 48mm at the back, I reckon closer to 80mm as rain wasnít just horizontal it was going up I swear. Front gauge was kind of not working lol. Had 3 little storms rock over since.

Excellent Lani; very happy for you, strangely lol.
You'll be out buying new mower blades soon??
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:18

Gin Gin & Bundy - uh oh.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:23

More then happy to miss getting today's action after seeing the destruction it has caused....after losing windows in the front of our house about 4 years ago to a similar situation, i feel for those effected currently.
11.9mm fell here at Salisbury today, brings event total to 34.8mm now.
Posted by: PlumbBob

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:23

Woah, just caught up on al the storm action, damage etc, was going to post a couple of pics of the cell that also caused havoc just south of the border yesty, (Weds) arvo/evening but doesn't seem the right time with peeps dealing with unfortunate situations,,, eek
I don't post much, tho read here during these events, & I do feel for those effected by Hail, Flood, Wind, Lightning and what-have-you, & hope you all fair well with out too much drama cool

In saying that- it is good to see solid falls around the vast SE Qld ?
45mm 'ere Nthrn Gold Coast Burbs cool
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:37

Originally Posted By: Mega
Gin Gin & Bundy - uh oh.


Hoping it dies before it gets here but that cell originated well out near Miles this afternoon and has ploughed its way through to Mount Perry so far.

http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=loops.m...nish=1539264600
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:39

Bunnings Gympie.

https://www.facebook.com/abcinbrisbane/videos/254034138798483/?t=4
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:40

😊 just showed my footage on 7 news. Cool!
Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:41

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Mega
Gin Gin & Bundy - uh oh.


Hoping it dies before it gets here but that cell originated well out near Miles this afternoon and has ploughed its way through to Mount Perry so far.

http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=loops.m...nish=1539264600


It's looking awful nasty!
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:41

Iím adding 60mm to my totals, we did measure 48 at the back but Iíd say more like 80.
Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:42

Originally Posted By: Lani
😊 just showed my footage on 7 news. Cool!


Glad to hear you came through with minimal damage!
Posted by: Pharbelle

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:42

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Mega
Gin Gin & Bundy - uh oh.


Hoping it dies before it gets here but that cell originated well out near Miles this afternoon and has ploughed its way through to Mount Perry so far.

http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=loops.m...nish=1539264600


Happy to let that one go by...it's starting to look ugly.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:42

Whoa, this one is packing a punch:

Wind gust up to 144km/h has been reported at Blackwater at 6:23pm
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:43

What a start to the storm season, and it is still only early October!!
Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:44

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Whoa, this one is packing a punch:

Wind gust up to 144km/h has been reported at Blackwater at 6:23pm


Ummm... hold onto your hat... and everything else!
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:45

Originally Posted By: CirrusFibratus
What a start to the storm season, and it is still only early October!!


Going to be very hard to top today's storms in WBB. These have been off the charts.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:53

It really didn't get too hot through the WBB today either, both inland and along the coast. I was honestly a bit worried this morning with all the cloud cover but I guess it shows again that cloud cover isn't always everything.
Posted by: sharjay

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:53

Originally Posted By: ColdFront

that's insane. I saw one on the news tonight a woolworths somewhere up that way was the same. Think they should cut the power to the building tho
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:55

Originally Posted By: sharjay
Originally Posted By: ColdFront

that's insane. I saw one on the news tonight a woolworths somewhere up that way was the same. Think they should cut the power to the building tho


Yeah that Woolies was at Cooloola Cove . My partner's sister works there. Clean up in isles 1-30 .
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 19:59

Goodbye Gin Gin!
Posted by: sharjay

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 20:00

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: sharjay
Originally Posted By: ColdFront

that's insane. I saw one on the news tonight a woolworths somewhere up that way was the same. Think they should cut the power to the building tho


Yeah that Woolies was at Cooloola Cove . My partner's sister works there. Clean up in isles 1-30 .

Poor buggers are going to have a nice mess to clean up when the rain is over
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 20:04

Aren't you at Moore Park Coldy? That cell looks like it may just miss Bundy to the north.

edit: Oh wow, that latest frame.
Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 20:06

Originally Posted By: Mega
Aren't you at Moore Park Coldy? That cell looks like it may just miss Bundy to the north.


I'm a little worried for my in laws as they aren't far from Moore Park Beach.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 20:25

- 4 to 5cm hail has been reported to the south of Gin Gin around 7:05pm

- 37mm in 15 minutes and 72mm in 50 minutes at Mingo Creek (west of Bundaberg)
Posted by: sharjay

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 20:29

Originally Posted By: weatheriam
Originally Posted By: Mega
Aren't you at Moore Park Coldy? That cell looks like it may just miss Bundy to the north.


I'm a little worried for my in laws as they aren't far from Moore Park Beach.

Just read on FB its heading that way and has tennis ball size hail
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 20:33

Look at the size of that monster on the Gladstone radar. It's the same resolution as Marburg.
Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 20:38

Originally Posted By: sharjay
Originally Posted By: weatheriam
Originally Posted By: Mega
Aren't you at Moore Park Coldy? That cell looks like it may just miss Bundy to the north.


I'm a little worried for my in laws as they aren't far from Moore Park Beach.

Just read on FB its heading that way and has tennis ball size hail


Yipes! They got smashed late last year with a microburst causing a lot of vegetation damage.

Looks to be weakening... hopefully.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 20:43

Breathes a big sigh of relief as the hail core dissolves smile. I've never been so happy to see a storm weaken .
Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 21:14

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Breathes a big sigh of relief as the hail core dissolves smile. I've never been so happy to see a storm weaken .


Sounds like it's still packed a lot of rain in.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 21:16

Originally Posted By: CirrusFibratus
What a start to the storm season, and it is still only early October!!


Could be a lot more of these in the coming months
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 21:30

Originally Posted By: weatheriam
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Breathes a big sigh of relief as the hail core dissolves smile. I've never been so happy to see a storm weaken .


Sounds like it's still packed a lot of rain in.


Yeah it smashed down. Last time I looked it was over 40mm but when it is going sideways a lot misses gauge. We have no power so I cannot check my Davis but the winds had to be up near 100 km. Still very active now. Reports of hail around Bundy but nothing like the stuff that hit Gin Gin. There is a media gag on the photo I was sent.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 21:30

6mm so far today, so glad Lani got some/lots. Onya!
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 21:44

For the records:

Latest:

- Wind gust up to 144km/h has been reported at Blackwater at 6:23pm

- 4 to 5cm hail has been reported to the south of Gin Gin around 7:05pm

- 37mm in 15 minutes and 72mm in 50 minutes at Mingo Creek (west of Bundaberg)

Earlier Today:

- TORNADO reported at Tansey (northwest of Murgon) around 3:12pm

- Tennis ball size hail (up to 7cm) was reported at Kumbia around midday.

- 4 to 5cm hail reported between Proston and Murgon

- 3 to 5cm hail reported at and near Gympie

- 4 to 5cm hail reported at Yelarbon

- Vast property and vegetation damage across all affected towns
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 22:09

Oh, some yummies from the south for us I see on Stapy.
Posted by: gberg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 22:23

Didn't have much luck finding any decent structure to shoot today. There was no ways i was driving into the middle of those two beasts. I made sure they were to pass either north or south of me. First photo is the very edge of the supercell that hit Nanango/Gympie and the second made the whole trip worthwhile!

EDIT: also arrived home to find we received 54mm from todays storm.



IMG_0016 by George Berg, on Flickr

IMG_0103 by George Berg, on Flickr
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 22:29

79mm at home. Best daily total since the last severe storm in October last year. Plenty of large tree damage but thankfully we missed the hail destruction that other places suffered.

Plenty more rain to come if the forecast verifies.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 22:36

Awesome photos George
Posted by: gberg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 22:54

Originally Posted By: gleno71
Awesome photos George


Thanks Gleno!
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 11/10/2018 23:34

Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Had a sudden thunderstorm here late this afternoon. It brought strong gusty winds (approx peaking around 65km/h) and heavy rain.
Thought yesterday's storm might've gave the campers a little bit of grief. Seems like it did: https://www.instagram.com/p/BoyYBfxgGE3/

Ended up with 33.0mm in the 24hrs to 9am.
4.6mm since 9am from light rain/showers at times.

My parents are currently caravanning in Queensland. They drove from near Nambour to Calliope today, thankfully well ahead of what was unleashed in the Wide Bay area today (they passed through Gympie around midday). Tonight's stop in the original plan was Gin Gin, but a few weeks ago decided they would spend an extra day in the Rockhampton region. So they did a longer drive today, instead of a shorter "hop". Lucky for them!

Hoping there hasn't been too much damage to property and crops/plantations in today's storms.

Nice pics Gberg.
Posted by: explorer

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 07:35

56 mm here from this event (just west of Coolum Beach). We avoided the wind and the worst of the storm, for which I am very thankful. Fast recovery to anyone badly affected by this. Thanks to all for keeping us informed.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 07:37

The injuries this woman & her baby suffered shows the sheer ferocity of the hailstorm in the southern Burnett region yesterday.
People & animals have been killed by very large hail before. You could argue that she & her baby were one of the lucky ones despite their injuries:

https://www.9news.com.au/national/2018/10/12/06/07/tornado-supercells-tansey-queensland-south-east
Posted by: pkgjmg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 07:45

just horrific Ken frown that poor woman will be so so sore today but at least she still alive .... did you see the pic of the man from Rainbow Beach and the poor poor horse frown


Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The injuries this woman & her baby suffered shows the sheer ferocity of the hailstorm in the southern Burnett region yesterday.
People & animals have been killed by very large hail before. You could argue that she & her baby were one of the lucky ones despite their injuries:

https://www.9news.com.au/national/2018/10/12/06/07/tornado-supercells-tansey-queensland-south-east
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 07:59

Courier Fail have officially won the "ridiculous invented word" competition with "hailnado". I notice that 9news article linked above captioned a photo with "a 400km wide area was hit by the tornado"...
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 08:12

Originally Posted By: LDRcycles
I notice that 9news article linked above captioned a photo with "a 400km wide area was hit by the tornado"...


Even bigger than the Reno tornado lol.

For today. The change is stalled near Fraser Coast. Upper trough over central Australia is approaching. Moisture feed from the east improving. GFS seems to have some strong convective rainfall in northern SEQ and north from late this afternoon. I think storms will build along the change, steering winds are NW to N so pushed south into the SS coast region. Could be some flooding risk and the area is well saturated after recent storm activity. GFS then passes the heaviest rain out to sea early Sunday and has abandoned an ECL, whereas EC and Access still hint at a weak low or trough forming almost on the coast. Wouldn't surprise me if heavy convective rain pops up in slightly unexpected areas. Some flood risk in the next day or two depending on how it plays out.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 08:23

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..12 OCT 2018 TIME..0720

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......18.2C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........81%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........15C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED.....SE 12Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1021.2HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........7/8 cloud
RAIN SINCE 0900...........10.2mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......26.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....16.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...15.9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....16C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1018.7pa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 41kph at 1710
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Thunderstorm mid afternoon, slight rain overnight.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 09:13

Wow those injury's on that woman in her car are unreal. She and her Daughter a baby are lucky to be alive.Not to mention the terror.
Reminds me off the 1985 Brisbane hail storm hail storm I was working at Geebung at a steel factory that storm had hail cricket ball size coming through the roof of the factory and everyone was running for the offices for protection but the offices were getting smashed too so i thought i am sitting under a semi loaded with steel safe there lol.I was the loudest thing i have ever heard.
And my friend that had gone out got caught in his car and got pushed off the road by the wind and hammered by the hail .Had no windows left and no good panels.It was wild .
http://hardenup.org/be-aware/weather-events/events/1980-1989/hail-(1985-01-18).aspx
Posted by: Bone Dry

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 09:28

Is there a problem with the Gympie radar? We've been getting consistent rain with the occasional heavy drop now and again all morning. Nothing showing on the radar at all, not even close.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 09:34

Same here, steady drizzly rain. Radar scan is not perfectly horizontal, but is angled up (curvature of the earth and maybe other factors such as avoiding ground clutter). The further from radar the higher the radar beam is looking. Also based on how much signal the raindrops bounce back. Big drops reflect well. Small drops poorly. So radar works much better for scanning high thunderstorms with big rain drops than for scanning low showers with drizzly raindrops.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 09:37

83 mm here from that storm and as the rain was sideways I suspect the rain gauge missed a fair sum of it. We couldn't see the house over the road for much of a 30 minute period. Plenty of large tree destruction and at home we had the strongest winds since I arrived here a few years back.

Here is the radar run for the cells that formed yesterday for anyone interested. The one that hit here had a 6 hour journey from out near Miles.

http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=loops.m...nish=1539264600
Posted by: Bone Dry

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 09:57

Fair enough Mike. I just find it strange as it's always been very reliable for my location, even in conditions such as these.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 09:58

Yeah, it's a no brainer where the main change stalled overnight. Models have this change remaining slow-moving for the rest of the day before the new upper trough grows some legs and strengthens the convergence between it and the easterlies originating from the Coral Sea. Eventually a little low looks to spin up along the convergence but it seems more and more likely it will remain offshore of SEQ? Still room for change though.

Edit: Actually, the latest GFS run actually swings the low back over SEQ so there's that.
Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 10:44

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
83 mm here from that storm and as the rain was sideways I suspect the rain gauge missed a fair sum of it. We couldn't see the house over the road for much of a 30 minute period. Plenty of large tree destruction and at home we had the strongest winds since I arrived here a few years back.

Here is the radar run for the cells that formed yesterday for anyone interested. The one that hit here had a 6 hour journey from out near Miles.

http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=loops.m...nish=1539264600


70mm in the gauge at the in-laws. Said they lost power several times and the wind was up there. Their weather station only measures current wind speed so no idea what they were.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 10:59

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Some, but not all, locations near the coastal fringe & hinterlands could eventually approach 100mm or even more by the time all is said & done...


Some areas in mid Sunshine Coast are already approaching 100mm from last two days. 50mm last night and 30 previous night near my place. If an ECL forms in the right spot to drag the rain out to sea we might fail to reach 100mm if you start the count from now. Otherwise I would be somewhat surprised if favoured SS Coast hinterland spots fail to break 100mm in the next couple of days.
Posted by: gberg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 11:10

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Some, but not all, locations near the coastal fringe & hinterlands could eventually approach 100mm or even more by the time all is said & done...


Some areas in mid Sunshine Coast are already approaching 100mm from last two days. 50mm last night and 30 previous night near my place. If an ECL forms in the right spot to drag the rain out to sea we might fail to reach 100mm if you start the count from now. Otherwise I would be somewhat surprised if favoured SS Coast hinterland spots fail to break 100mm in the next couple of days.


Yeah i've cracked 150mm from the last 2 days here in Noosaville, obviously doesn't flood easy right here on the coast but they have had a fair bit up in the hinterland too.
Posted by: Bone Dry

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 11:38

Well, I have to say I'm just not convinced about the Gympie radar. It's been raining here steadily for a while, we've had about 4mm since 9am and still all but nothing within cooee of here on the radar.
Posted by: gberg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 11:49

Originally Posted By: Bone Dry
Well, I have to say I'm just not convinced about the Gympie radar. It's been raining here steadily for a while, we've had about 4mm since 9am and still all but nothing within cooee of here on the radar.


Yeah i have found these kinda days weird, they always seem to be the same where the atmosphere is completely saturated with moisture and like someone previously mentioned, the radar doesn't pick up small rain drops/ drizzle as well as your typical convective type rain. It actually started last night as i was driving through Gympie and those leftover bands of rain were actually really quite heavy yet it was only green on radar.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 11:52

Originally Posted By: Bone Dry
Well, I have to say I'm just not convinced about the Gympie radar. It's been raining here steadily for a while, we've had about 4mm since 9am and still all but nothing within cooee of here on the radar.
Simply too low or too high to be detected I would assume; was like that last night here also.
That's why I like the Himawari water vapour loop on WZ; certainly worth the $60 a year( $5 a month? - bargain).
Shows a bit more realistically what's going on.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 12:16

Oops I didn't realise this thread was still going.

Here's a copy & paste from my comments in the day to day thread re the upcoming rainfall:

" Hereís how I see things playing out...

From today (Fri) into the weekend in SE QLD, showers should gradually start becoming more extensive & eventually tend to steadier rain from time to time (the better amounts should be in northern parts at first). At this stage, the more extensive rainfall looks like becoming less extensive by the start of the working week next week but that could still change.

Daytimes will also be very cool under the cloud cover & many places will probably struggle to reach around 20C by the weekend, if not the teens. Daytimes should slowly warm up next week.
Also, IF a small east coast low forms close enough to the coast with enough intensity, it could get windy along the coast on its southern flank.

Rainfall amounts will probably get lower as you go further inland although some areas in the north could get some reasonable amounts.
Some, but not all, locations near the coastal fringe & hinterlands could eventually approach 100mm or even more by the time all is said & done... and this could also extend down onto the northern NSW coast but only if any coastal trough or low digs far enough south.
We have a moist onshore wind flow getting lifted by an approaching upper level trough (aided by a surface trough or small low which may help to focus the rainfall).

BUT if any coastal trough or low is weaker than expected, forms further out to sea or further south than expected, SE QLD wonít get as much rain (or itíll clear much earlier than expected.
On the other hand, if the surface trough or low forms just to our north & hangs around there longer than expected, we could get heavier rain which lasts longer. "

Some of the rainfall on the EC map below has already fallen (the amounts start from 10pm last night):


Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 12:41

One thing I like about the southern states having daylight saving is we get some of the Bureau's updates an hour earlier up here. The just updated 4-day forecast charts seem to show the little low hugging the coast near Brisbane, or that what it looks like with my deteriorating eyesight.
cheers
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 13:08

I wander if atmospheric profile could make it harder for the radar to detect the rain. Under strong inversions the radar beam is deflected towards the ground and can show lots of ground clutter. Generally rainy conditions are opposite (but closer to average) to an inversion and the beam may be deflected higher than normal.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 13:16

And so it begins, Stapy filling up, no repeat of yesterday thank you.
See how rain totals stack up to forecasts.
Either way, its gonabe wet wet wet.
Dark & gloomy all morning here with a nice Easterly breeze.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 14:51

Aah lovely wind and hail free rain 😍
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 15:01

30 to 60mm of rain predicted for Kingaroy today, only a few mm so far, be interesting to see if the forecast totals eventuate.
Posted by: Bone Dry

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 15:11

Could be a possibility Mike. I read the following link;

Radar Stuff

Makes sense to me, I guess it depends on the atmospheric profile.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 15:57

Flood watch issued

Quote:
Initial Flood Watch for catchments between Gladstone and the Sunshine Coast including the Dawson River catchment
Issued at 11:08 am EST on Friday 12 October 2018

Flood Watch Number: 1

Minor flooding is possible across the Flood Watch area during the weekend.

A significant rainfall situation is forecast to begin on Friday evening and continue during Saturday across the flood watch area. Showers and thunderstorms tending to rain areas are likely.

Catchment conditions are generally dry across the Watch area after a prolonged period of little rainfall which is expected to act as a buffer to significant runoff.

The heaviest rainfall is expected to begin across inland areas, including the Don, Dee and Upper Burnett River catchments from Friday evening and then extend further east to the coast during Saturday.

Minor flooding is possible across the Flood Watch area and isolated heavier rainfall may lead to localised flooding. As the northern and southern extents of the flood watch are expected to receive lower rainfall totals significant river level rises in these areas is less likely.

Rainfall totals and river level rises are expected to be less than those experienced in the Wide Bay catchments in October 2017.

Catchments likely to be affected include:

Dawson and Don Rivers
Calliope River
Boyne River
Baffle Creek
Kolan River
Burnett River
Burrum and Cherwell Rivers
Mary River
Noosa River
Sunshine Coast Rivers and Creeks


Catchments for some of the area may be dry, but catchments on the Sunshine coast are saturated with creeks brown and flowing and many flood gauges detecting some rises.
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 16:16

So doppler is showing a definite circulation inland from Rainbow Beach. Is this the beginnings of an ECL?
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 16:18

Some really significant rainfall rates at Rainbow Beach at the moment too!
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 16:27

Latest GFS has heavy rain tonight near Gympie and SS Coast, moving offshore, but coming back onshore with a weak low towards the Gold Coast. Accumulated rain up over 200mm for GC, and 100 in a strip from Sunshine coast through Brisbane and to Gold Coast.

The upper level trough has really motored along from central Australia, but GFS seems to slow it near SEQ. Maybe if it slows a bit later than expected it could all push out to sea quite quickly. Slows a bit more and it could get nasty.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 16:49

What's the upper trough doing at the moment? Is it coming in too quickly or something, the way it's looking, the predicted 30 to 60mm is going to be way off unless something changes.
Posted by: BeenAround

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 16:53

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIp5Mc36pYI

From the cell yesterday afternoon.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 17:12

Himawari Sat pic & water vapour look very healthy. Steady rain now.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 17:20

On radar it appears the rain headin towards the SE is hittin a barrier line that runs NE trough the GC sea way, through Hinze dam and Springbrook to the SW and i'm just south of that line, BUGGA
DD
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 17:21

Originally Posted By: BeenAround
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIp5Mc36pYI

From the cell yesterday afternoon.


The school he goes past is Cloyna, heading south on the road from Gayndah to Murgon. Took me a while to work it out. It's about 35k from Murgon to Tansey.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 17:28

The upper trough is moving very fast, but don't be fooled by all the coastal rain tracking offshore. There's a lot of inland redevelopment of storms and rain in a line north of Roma. That will track east over the next several hours.

GFS and EC are onboard for an ECL dumping 100-200+ mm rain along the coast, but GFS moves it further inland into the border region whereas EC and Access-G are more coastal and affect far SE corner and NE NSW a lot more. Access-R isn't interested, but does have a slight low that tries to form. I'd say we have a good shot at an ECL forming but this set-up is complicated and the formation and movement of the low will be critical to any rainfall amounts in SEQ.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 17:41

Have been out of range for a couple of days and haven't got to see any decent reports. Just want to know if there actually was a tornado or if it is a case of exaggeration? Has it been confirmed?
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 17:43

Supercell has formed south-west of Emerald. Looks like a repeat of yesterday's WBB action just further north this time. This really has been an incredible and long-lasting weather event for eastern Queensland with more still to come.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 17:44

Got a pretty decent smokehaze out here atm while raining, seems some D.Head has decided to light a fire, not happy having to smell the bastard smoke. Calm atm, so its not moving.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 17:44

Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Have been out of range for a couple of days and haven't got to see any decent reports. Just want to know if there actually was a tornado or if it is a case of exaggeration? Has it been confirmed?


BOM have confirmed one at Tansey. There are unconfirmed reports of two more (Coolabunia and Gympie). It looks like most of these have surfaced because of high-quality storm chaser footage. You have to wonder how many tornadoes go unreported because they weren't recorded.
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 17:47

Saw a study a while back which showed that frequency of tornadoes per unit area in 50km boxes which covered the capital cities in Australia was typically around 10 times that in surrounding rural areas, which implies (unless you think that tornadoes are particularly attracted to cities) that at least 90% of rural tornadoes were unreported at that time. It's probably improved a bit in recent years.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 17:52

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Have been out of range for a couple of days and haven't got to see any decent reports. Just want to know if there actually was a tornado or if it is a case of exaggeration? Has it been confirmed?


BOM have confirmed one at Tansey. There are unconfirmed reports of two more (Coolabunia and Gympie). It looks like most of these have surfaced because of high-quality storm chaser footage. You have to wonder how many tornadoes go unreported because they weren't recorded.


Cheers. And yep. I would imagine many go unreported. It's actually ridiculous how many people think we don't get tornadoes here or only get them because of.....
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 17:54

Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
Saw a study a while back which showed that frequency of tornadoes per unit area in 50km boxes which covered the capital cities in Australia was typically around 10 times that in surrounding rural areas, which implies (unless you think that tornadoes are particularly attracted to cities) that at least 90% of rural tornadoes were unreported at that time. It's probably improved a bit in recent years.


Any chance you remember the title? It sounds like a good study to read if possible.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 17:55

Oooh Emerald has a doppler and the storm just south seems to have a pretty brutal tight velocity couplet.

Will be interesting to see how the patch of storms out there progresses through the evening.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 17:55

Had a chat with my oldies in Scarness just then, they say hearing a huge freight train noise for a couple minutes around 9pm last night, similar to a water spout that came on land near their place 5 years ago. Yea, a lot dont get reported but last nights noisemaker didnt touch down luckily.
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 18:00

Strong winds up here and it's bl**dy cold 12C with an apparent temp of 4C.This is October right.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 18:02

I'm rugged up like a Tasmanian atm sitting under patio with the dog enjoying the rain, 15C, cold! Ducks having a good time!
In contrast, one of my sons is working in Jabiru, shirtless, 36C & sweating his bum off.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 18:04

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Oooh Emerald has a doppler and the storm just south seems to have a pretty brutal tight velocity couplet.

Will be interesting to see how the patch of storms out there progresses through the evening.


Another beast just near Moura as well but radar coverage is not as good to watch this one.
Posted by: DNO

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 18:11

Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Strong winds up here and it's bl**dy cold 12C with an apparent temp of 4C.This is October right.


Yep I just lit the fireplace up. confused

13.5mm here since 9am. 34mm yesterday to 9am
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 18:12

Must be quite windy at higher levels, Toowoomba 900m windy 43kph yet here at 180m its calm.
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 18:33

Blowing its ring out here with sideways drizzle and a temp of 13C. Had some good rain earlier this arvo with 13mm in the gauge.

Drove through coolabunia today and its hard to say whether it was hit by extreme straight line winds or a tornado. Alot of trees twisted off half way up the trunk but also lots of big gums uprooted and all lying the same way. Either way the place is a mess, looks like a bomb went off. Didn't stop for photos as thers still SES, council and tree loppers everywhere. Probably gonna be years until the place is back to normal again frown
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 18:57

This is my 2nd supercell storm. Both times you watch the wall cloud coming at you then you hear that roar and you know it's coming. Then it's just full whiteout conditions, the rain is upside down and going up LOL. The 2007 Australia Day storm in Dalby had a tornado in it as well and blew rail carriages off the track. I'm very thankful it wasn't any worse here, to see the images of the horses in Nanango hit by the larger hail, I'd be devastated to see my horses like that and know their owners were too. Some moron on FB commented the owners didn't care because they didn't put them undercover. If you put horses in a stable/tin roof type shed in that storm they'd have likely killed themselves freaking out. The noise on the roof was indescribable. Jimbour station recorded 110km/h wind and there is no damage that end of Jimbour. Our weather station is in a ball so nothing recorded unfortunately but I'd love to know what it got to here. 150 perhaps? Couldn't see more than about 20m from the door. Had around 15-20mm today I think looking at the radars, nice steady rain. Instant puddles, it's glorious considering how bad we were. Could have passed on the supercell however the dams are full and the paddocks are cleared of dung build up from the dry so there are definite bonuses as well grin. Thankyou to everyone who thought of me and I'm thinking of those in the worse hit areas. Please all stay safe this storm season, it's shaping up to be a ripper!!!!
Posted by: PlumbBob

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 19:00

Managed a couple of Captures of that very Hazardous Storm that pass through the Tweed region (Weds 10th) arvo/eve. .
It was a very Dark & Ominous looking cell as we viewed it from Danger Point passing by our South.
Was charged with some good Solid amperage & some close'ish Blinding CG's - Awesome feeling I haven't experienced for some time - Must Storm Chase more often again !

This on arrival as the frontline made the Ocean. Distant Lightning Smashing near Byron - approx 7pm qld time


7:15pm. Insane CG with Tendrils


7:30pm. Stunning Amperage
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 19:17

Awesome PB, the power of nature is mind blowing.
(politically corrected) DD
Posted by: Bone Dry

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 19:44

That top pics a peach. Looks like the end of the world.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 19:46

I should've also mentioned in my previous post that it doesn't have to be a single ECL that forms - there can often be small multiple centres embedded along a trough or convergence zone. These can make the forecasting of the heavier rain areas and stronger winds pretty tricky as the individual centres wobble around.

Nice profiles near the coast through tonight and into tomorrow with saturated profiles and good backing winds with height/upslide helping to enhance the rainfall.


P.S. love those shots PlumbBob.
And thanks for that report Lani.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 19:53

Tin Can Bay 93mm, Noosa Heads 70mm since 9am.

edit

And satellite reveals a low pressure near Roma. Radar and GFS nowcast agree. GFS forecasts it to wash out in the next 6 hours, but I think its looking like it has some potential on satellite.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 20:08

Probably almost time for the BoM to issue a STW for that slow moving cell on the southern end of Fraser Island I think...then again, there are no lightning strikes recorded from it...so technically, it's not a storm?

Definitely ramped up here in the last hour or so.

edit: Probably weakening going by that latest frame anyway.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 20:10

Epic shots Plumbob well done
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 20:13

Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Have been out of range for a couple of days and haven't got to see any decent reports. Just want to know if there actually was a tornado or if it is a case of exaggeration? Has it been confirmed?


BOM have confirmed one at Tansey. There are unconfirmed reports of two more (Coolabunia and Gympie). It looks like most of these have surfaced because of high-quality storm chaser footage. You have to wonder how many tornadoes go unreported because they weren't recorded.


Cheers. And yep. I would imagine many go unreported. It's actually ridiculous how many people think we don't get tornadoes here or only get them because of.....



I would say that's because we don't have the setup they have in the USA to produce tornadoes, so people that are not into weather think it wont happen here.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 20:16

Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Have been out of range for a couple of days and haven't got to see any decent reports. Just want to know if there actually was a tornado or if it is a case of exaggeration? Has it been confirmed?



I'm keen to know as well as I haven't seen one photo of a funnel coming from the clouds. All the video footage I have seen, have been from very strong winds. Has the BOM rated the tornado on the fujitsu scale?
Posted by: Bone Dry

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 20:24

I've been watching that. For all money it's trying to come my way, we'll see.
Posted by: Bone Dry

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 20:45

To be honest, the only thing I'm concerned about at the moment is the crap warning that's just been issued. I mean, seriously, could that get any more approximate.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 20:51

A Flood Watch has also been issued for a couple of rivers along the NENSW coast:
Quote:
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales
Note: This Flood Watch provides early advice of possible flooding within the specified catchments.
Initial Flood Watch for the New South Wales Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast
Issued at 1:20 pm EDT on Friday 12 October 2018
Flood Watch Number: 1
Widespread rainfall over the New South Wales Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast has the potential to cause riverine flooding from Sunday onwards.
A low pressure trough over parts of the northeast of New South Wales may potentially bring moderate to heavy falls over the Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast over the weekend and early next week.
The weather system is likely to bring intense rainfall and has the potential to cause riverine flooding from Sunday onwards.
Catchments likely to be affected include:

Wilsons River, minor flooding
Orara River, minor flooding
Bellinger and Kalang Rivers, minor flooding

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/flood/floodwatch1.shtml

5.2mm in the 24hrs to 9am here. Occasional, passing showers today bringing 8.6mm since 9am. Looks like the showery weather will continue over the next few days.

Awesome pics PlumbBob.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 21:41

A nice 25mm here over the past 24 hours. We are almost at average for the month of October! First time in a year and a half we will be above normal. Good stuff! More to come shortly.
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 22:20

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
Saw a study a while back which showed that frequency of tornadoes per unit area in 50km boxes which covered the capital cities in Australia was typically around 10 times that in surrounding rural areas, which implies (unless you think that tornadoes are particularly attracted to cities) that at least 90% of rural tornadoes were unreported at that time. It's probably improved a bit in recent years.


Any chance you remember the title? It sounds like a good study to read if possible.


Will look it up on Monday.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 22:26

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I should've also mentioned in my previous post that it doesn't have to be a single ECL that forms - there can often be small multiple centres embedded along a trough or convergence zone.


There looks to be one such centre out near Proston on radar? Doppler seems to support it.
Posted by: DNO

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 22:39

Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
What's the upper trough doing at the moment? Is it coming in too quickly or something, the way it's looking, the predicted 30 to 60mm is going to be way off unless something changes.


Looking like we will get to at least 30mm before it finishes here tonight Chris. I was up to 21mm at about 5pm & been raining nicely since then. smile
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 23:06

From the BOM

IDQ21035
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in Cherbourg and parts of South Burnett Council Areas.

Issued at 9:38 pm Friday, 12 October 2018.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 9:30 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on the weather radar near the area northwest of Lake Boondooma. These thunderstorms are moving towards the southeast. They are forecast to affect Proston, Boondooma and Lake Boondooma by 10:05 pm and the area northwest of Kingaroy, the area northwest of Murgon and the area northeast of Lake Boondooma by 10:35 pm.
Damaging winds are likely.
Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Avoid using the telephone during a thunderstorm.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

The next warning is due to be issued by 10:40 pm.
A more general severe thunderstorm warning is also current for the Herbert and Lower Burdekin, Wide Bay and Burnett and parts of the Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders, Central Coast and Whitsundays, Central Highlands and Coalfields, Capricornia, Darling Downs and Granite Belt and Southeast Coast districts.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Queensland Fire and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 12/10/2018 23:42

Originally Posted By: DNO
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
What's the upper trough doing at the moment? Is it coming in too quickly or something, the way it's looking, the predicted 30 to 60mm is going to be way off unless something changes.


Looking like we will get to at least 30mm before it finishes here tonight Chris. I was up to 21mm at about 5pm & been raining nicely since then. smile

Yeah we're well over the 30mm mark now. The main rain event is about 1/2 way done; a bit early to be doubting those totals I think.

Not sure how much rain it will take to wash away the pessimism ; I heard one person today complaining that the drought had been called "off" for the rea. I heard another complaining that "we never get the brunt of storms in Kingaroy, always the surrounding areas". How anyone in their right mind would want that near them is mind boggling.

Gonna be a loooong storm season; starting with the bar so high here , all we will hear is complaints that every storm system isn't like this, lol. I may ban myself from commenting ......
Posted by: gberg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 00:10

Already upto 95mm here today and are currently under a good train of showers coming in from the ESE. Should be some impressive totals in the morning.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 01:28

28mm here, rain easing off a bit.
Very happy with that. Good dose of water in our tanks.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 02:09

Surface trough headed offshore currently. Should see a little low spin up off the coast along the trough during today.
Posted by: explorer

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 06:10

I just checked our rain gauge and we have 136mm in it, 80mm in the last 24 hours. It pretty much rain all day yesterday and it is still lightly drizzling here, although I expect to clear up soon? System has moved on? We are just west of Coolum Beach.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 06:58

If that supercell would have hit Kingaroy head on, it would have made quite a mess.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 07:58

Chehehehe.I love supercells can't get enough of em just so long as they stay away from farmlands.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 08:04

Won't say I'm disappointed with our overnight total but great to see 30's and 40 plus up over the divide.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 08:37

Another 65mm to this morning, showering again now. Our 3 day total is measured at 113mm, I added 12mm as a very conservative addition to the storm deluge, so Iíve recorded it is 125mm and I think I could easily add another 20mm that just couldnít be recorded but Iím staying at the more conservative total. Just incredible based on where we were at last week.
Posted by: Ahab

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 08:54

Only 17mm here. Was raining all evening and night, thought it should have been more.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 09:07

GFS going for low forming far enough out to sea to keep the heavy rain away from the coast. Access and EC still want it closer to the coast. Radar seems to favour GFS at the moment, with a heavy swirl a decent way off the coast from Rainbow Beach. The heavy storms last night out towards Emerald seemed to move through onto the Capricorn/Wide Bay coast through the night, give a possible embryonic circulation over southern Fraser Island a bit of a kick while dragging it out to sea. Perhaps as the remnant of these storms moves further away the true circulation may be revealed closer to coast as Access/EC? My best guess would be that GFS is right and the heavy rain is mostly over.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 09:07

Another 9mm here last night after the 25mm we received during the last rain event 24 hours earlier. Event total now 76.5mm. Nice to see things green around here again.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 09:16

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
GFS going for low forming far enough out to sea to keep the heavy rain away from the coast. Access and EC still want it closer to the coast. Radar seems to favour GFS at the moment, with a heavy swirl a decent way off the coast from Rainbow Beach. The heavy storms last night out towards Emerald seemed to move through onto the Capricorn/Wide Bay coast through the night, give a possible embryonic circulation over southern Fraser Island a bit of a kick while dragging it out to sea. Perhaps as the remnant of these storms moves further away the true circulation may be revealed closer to coast as Access/EC? My best guess would be that GFS is right and the heavy rain is mostly over.

Have you had a look at the soundings from GFS? The 12z run has deep moisture returning to the soundings later today. It may be because GFSís precip scheme is very unreliable. Time will tell if itíll be right or not but itís more accurate on average to go with a middle of the ground consensus approach using multiple models rather than just one.
Posted by: grayarea

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 09:24

Well just looking at rain radar and there looks to be a circulation 130km east of Tin Can Bay. Just an eddy or the low forming?
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 09:28

Tank not half full yet.

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..13 OCT 2018 TIME..0820

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......18.2C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........89%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........15C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED.....SE 18Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1020.0HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........20KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........8/8 cloud, distant showers.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........13.2mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......21.5C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....15.1C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...15.1C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....15C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1020.4Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 40kph at 1730
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Slight rain areas and slight showers.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 09:39

Gympie radar shows circulation off Tin Can Bay travelling SE - away from the coast - bye bye forecast heavy rain locally ?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 09:43

Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Gympie radar shows circulation off Tin Can Bay travelling SE - away from the coast - bye bye forecast heavy rain locally ?

Some of the models are trying to bring one or more of the small low pressure centres back towards the coast over the next couple of days so Iíd want to wait a couple more days begire calling it.
With multiple circulations, the uncertainty is often high as they wobble around the place.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 10:10

32mm 24hr total here, cool/cold wet cloudy Tassie weather morning.
Stapy looking a bit light on.
Posted by: Pharbelle

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 10:22

Holy cow...152mm 24hr total here. That's 204mm since the 9th. Dam, pool and 3 tanks overflowing another 3 tanks 1/2 full. Happy days! Cows are a bit soggy though.
Posted by: Sandstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 10:28

20mm to 9.00am
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 10:34

Was watching this circulation on Gladstone/Gympie radars last night. It became noticeable about 2030 yesterday in Monto area as increasing semi circular clockwise banding NE to SSW and has been tracking steadily ESE since.

Using TC principles - with the strongest convergence areas usually ahead of the system, this generally indicates the wanted direction of movement of the system. And this circulation so far has followed these principles.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 10:40

Originally Posted By: Lani
Another 65mm to this morning, showering again now. Our 3 day total is measured at 113mm, I added 12mm as a very conservative addition to the storm deluge, so Iíve recorded it is 125mm and I think I could easily add another 20mm that just couldnít be recorded but Iím staying at the more conservative total. Just incredible based on where we were at last week.
Great news Lani.
Have you noticed that most has soaked in rather than flooded? I'm seeing a lot of tt around here, which is to be expected as long as it doesn't fall too fast.
The earlier rain would have primed the soil & 'opened it up' somewhat to accept the moisture - not a total waste as some people whinged about back then. There was time for a lot of growth to start on grasses etc which also would have helped the stability of the surface. Well that's what has happened here; hope for you guys it did also.

And all this means anything in the coming months will have an even greater effect; hopefully more people will put their minds to storing future falls as well!.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 10:43

Even if one or more of the smaller low pressure centres does wobble back towards the coast, itíd have to do so just to our north so we can get a moist onshore flow rather than a more southerly flow flicking up its backside.
If it does come close enough, thereíd also be strong winds just near its southern and western side.

The possible multi centred nature of the system always makes things a bit unpredictable in terms of intensity, extent and timing of rainfall.
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 10:49

35.0mm in the gauge from overnight, best single fall since February. Fantastic!
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 11:19

Event total for Salisbury sitting at 39.5mm.....be nice to get some of those bigger falls others have been getting, but the grass is green again and i'm seeing new stuff shooting up where the bare dirt patches are, so can't complain.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 11:21

At 1010 - 25.8S 154.8E.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 11:48

79 to 9am for us.
Extraordinary for this time of year here
Will be interesting to see how the rivers respond to todayís forecast rain.
Posted by: pabloako

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 12:05

Just about to reach 100mm for the month of October which is great to see. Just light rain and fog up here now.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 12:46

Just had the most random of storms come through here, absolutely chucked it down for a good 10-15min. Not sure how much rain we've had this week (will check tonight) but it'd have to be around the 150-200mm mark.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 13:00

22mm to 9am here, this is the best rain we have had in about a year here, in terms of consistent days.

It was getting to the point where even the council trees in the median strips were starting to call it quits eek
Posted by: gberg

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 13:06

116mm all up overnight, takes my total this week to 290mm. I've just seen they have updated the forecast and a big downgrade for the sunny coast, now only expecting 5-15mm today instead of 50-70mm. Not that we need any more...
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 13:13

Originally Posted By: Blowin'
79 to 9am for us.
Extraordinary for this time of year here

Reminds me of this event about this time last year:
https://scontent.fsyd4-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v...f20&oe=5C41D76D
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 13:24

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Blowin'
79 to 9am for us.
Extraordinary for this time of year here

Reminds me of this event about this time last year:
https://scontent.fsyd4-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v...f20&oe=5C41D76D


Me too. I hope it doesn't dry out again like it did from November last year.
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 14:58

to me, the latest access c still wants the weak low to re/form near tin can bay, cross at sunshine coast and bring in up to 100 mm along the coast down to the border.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 15:06

Is this it for us out here? Only dripping since 9am.
Posted by: Pharbelle

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 15:10

A couple of little cells forming to the south-west of me now might bring another drop or two if they maintain that line.
Posted by: Taylsy

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 15:21

Just one model, but latest Access-R has persisted with a small low sitting offshore from the Sunshine Coast with very gradual movement/quasi-stationary (if anything, back to the southwest). Good rain along the coast south of Noosa tapering off further inland. Places like Springbrook normally pick up large precip in these situations.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 15:42

As others have said, this event is far from over. When it comes to low formation, embedded lows, low movement, it's so unpredictable. There still isn't model agreement and we're in real-time. It's going to be an interesting next 24-48 hours.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 17:21

Thanks Kazz, our bridge down the road was over this morning. All the catchments to Dalby are now full. Were we to get another big event in the next week weíll see more widespread flooding which is incredible given how dry it was a week ago. We had just finished saying how much we liked the smaller falls as opposed to those nasty supercells when we got smashed. Glad youíve had some good rain too!
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 18:42

Lovely constant heavy drizzle, interestingly Stapy not showing anything.
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 18:46

this reminds me of something of a low close by with heavy drizzle and wind at times. Historically these thing get worse at night, time will tell, but here in brissy i wouldn't mind seeing at least strong winds. Anything can happen. Ken normally the southern side gets the worst weather so surprised the bom haven't put out a heads up, just in case ?
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 19:05

Shower activity bringing 18.8mm in the 24hrs to 9am, and 3.0mm since 9am here.

The minor flood watch for the Wilsons River has been discontinued. However, it remains in force for the Bellinger/Kalang and the Orara:
Quote:
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales
Note: This Flood Watch provides early advice of possible flooding within the specified catchments.
Flood Watch for the Orara and Bellinger Rivers
Issued at 10:29 am EDT on Saturday 13 October 2018
Flood Watch Number: 2
Minor riverine flooding may develop in the Orara and Bellinger Rivers from Sunday onwards.
A low pressure trough over parts of the northeast of New South Wales may bring moderate falls in the Mid North Coast over the weekend and early next week.
The weather system is likely to bring intense rainfall and has the potential to cause riverine flooding from Sunday onwards.
Catchments likely to be affected include:

Orara River, minor flooding
Bellinger and Kalang Rivers, minor flooding

Flooding is no longer expected in the following catchments: Wilsons River.

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/flood/floodwatch1.shtml

Btw, I've done one final extension of this thread to the 16th to cover the coastal low's potential rain / showery flow.
Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 19:13

Check out the last few frames on the Emerald doppler!

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR72I.loop.shtml#skip
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 19:20

BOM 4 day chart has low forming off Fraser and staying put for two days!! Bucketing down now. Could get interesting around Sunny Coast.
Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 19:31

Meant to add this to my post.

Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 19:33

The huge change in forecast for the sunny coast between the scheduled 4am and updated 11am today says itís a guessing game. Yes a low would be interesting
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 19:39

one good sign, cape moretons average wind speed been steadily increasing , now to 34 knts. Hope it keeps going
Posted by: whethertraveller

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 19:42

Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
one good sign, cape moretons average wind speed been steadily increasing , now to 34 knts. Hope it keeps going


There is a severe weather warning on the BOM site now, I was reading it before, looks like signs of a low forming " Weather Situation:

At 4pm AEST, a slow-moving low pressure complex was situated off Fraser Island. The low pressure system is expected to remain offshore of the southeast Queensland coast tonight, but may develop a track back towards the coast during Sunday. A high pressure system in the Tasman Sea is otherwise expected to strengthen over the weekend as it shifts slowly eastwards towards New Zealand.
The combination of these two systems will cause a long fetch of strong to possibly gale force southeasterly winds near the southeast Queensland coast and large waves about exposed beaches south of Cape Moreton."
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 19:50

Originally Posted By: weatheriam
Check out the last few frames on the Emerald doppler!

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR72I.loop.shtml#skip

Iím not at home but had a quick look at the Doppler precip and winds on my phone and it doesnít look like anything untoward - just the usual deceptive-looking returns that occur in situations like this.

In other news, hereís an animation of the 00z run of ACCESS-C hourly precip from 8pm tonight to 10pm Sunday night via Weatherzone Layers for anyone interested - this is one of the scenarios that try to bring one of the lows back towards the coast;


Posted by: whethertraveller

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 19:51

Originally Posted By: weatheriam
Check out the last few frames on the Emerald doppler!

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR72I.loop.shtml#skip


There's no homes in that area so I guess the strong winds/or whatever won't be recorded Weatheriam.
Posted by: whethertraveller

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 19:56

Thanks Ken, good to see that possible scenario, be interesting to see what happens.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 19:57

Seems to be a bit of an E'ly drift of precip on Sunsine C. on Stapy.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 20:38

https://weather.us/satellite/queensland/satellite-water-vapor-10min.html#play
looks like a bit moisture around our region smile
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 20:41

Except for GFS, there's model agreement between EC, Access-R and Access-C that the low will approach SE QLD and dump 50-100mm along coastal SEQ tomorrow afternoon and evening with variations about where the heaviest falls will be.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 20:49

Your welcome to it NF. Been raining here for hours.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 21:30

Moon & stars are out.
Posted by: explorer

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 21:58

It has been raining quite heavily here for hours. So far this event has brought us over 150mm of rain. I have just emptied the rain gauge with a max of 150mm but it was over that by at least 1cm, so no sure what would that be now. There is water over some local roads, but we do not mind this steady rain, with a bit of a breeze even, as long as the nasty windy stuff stays away ...
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 22:00

Ken, that senario looks awesome. Thx for the vid
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 13/10/2018 22:51

Definitely a good ESE motion with precip on Stapy now, might even reach us with some luck.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 01:15

So is it the strengthening high in the Tasman or another influence that will/may bring the low towards the coast? i.e. Upper pattern.
DD
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 05:59

Hmm might be an interesting flight back home via Sydney maybe abit bumpy coming in.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 08:00

Welcome back Stevo , so long as you are landing in Brisbane and not the Gold coast you should be ok mate.Might even get treated to some coastal thunder if we are lucky today.
Posted by: Taylsy

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 08:04

Comforting to hear Tweedstorm! I'm flying out to Melbourne from Coolie on a 2 pm flight today - yikes!

35 mm so far here since 9 am.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 08:08

Nice technical discussion of the October 11 severe storms at weatherwatch
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 08:33

quite a bit of moisture still, radar and satellite looks interesting.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 08:38

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..14 OCT 2018 TIME..0720

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......18.2C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........93%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........17C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED.....SW 4ph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1019.8HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........20KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........8/8 cloud, slight showers.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........16.8mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......19.0C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....16.6C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...16.6C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....14C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1019.1Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..NE 32kph at 1807
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Slight rain areas, with slight showers.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 08:40

25.7S 153.6E at 0730.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 09:48

Modest 7.5mm last 24hrs with continuing light drizzle.
What are the chances of that nice blob of precip making its way south to Somerset?
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 10:04

Comforting to hear Tweedstorm! I'm flying out to Melbourne from Coolie on a 2 pm flight today - yikes🤐

You should be ok mate it's the landing at GC airport that's the worry but I think they have an ILS system up and running there now.Safe trip bro.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 10:11

Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Comforting to hear Tweedstorm! I'm flying out to Melbourne from Coolie on a 2 pm flight today - yikes🤐

You should be ok mate it's the landing at GC airport that's the worry but I think they have an ILS system up and running there now.Safe trip bro.


The ILS isn't operational yet at Gold Coast Airport so the higher vis/cloud criteria required to land at that airport has more of an effect on landings there than at say Brisbane.

Meanwhile, here's ACCESS-C's latest scenario for accumulated rainfall between 10am today and 10am Monday (displayed courtesy of Weatherzone Layers). I don't know if I'm prepared to lock in those amounts but you'd have to think that there'd be at least an increase in rainfall for a small section of the coast:

Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 10:13

Iím guessing the dominant low is now centred just west of Hervey Bay?
Could be a wet day.
43mm to 9am here, over 100 in two days. Tanks are now full.
Watching that blob to the NE of the sunny coast
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 10:28

Thanks Ken, with a forecast like that would you expect a SWW for heavy rain/flash flooding later today?
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 10:46

Love the colours Ken, make it so.
A little bit more to the west would be good.
Give the catchments a bit of wet love!
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 10:49

The colours on that map might look pretty but today's one of those setups where you'd have to keep a very open mind about whether those rainfall amounts will be reached or exceeded.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 10:59

Was looking at the Access C chart as well. I get my moneys worth with the weatherzone pro, some huge towering clouds off the sunshine coast starting to march south
Posted by: explorer

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 11:20

Add another 15mm since 10pm last night for us (most of it was overnight, only light on/off rain this morning here). Enjoying this weather so much .... smile
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 11:24

for Sunday until midnight
Winds(SE Coast)
Northeast to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots at times, tending east to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon. Winds variable 10 to 15 knots offshore North of Noosa Heads in the morning. Winds dependent on movement of trough/low.
I find this forecast almost dangerous considering the obs from Cape Moreton.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 11:26

My feeling (not based on anything overly scientific) is that rainfall amounts and winds won't be as dramatic as what some of the models like ACCESS-C show... but that there'll still be a distinct enhancement in the rainfall.
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 11:31

the heavier rain seems a bit further north and further inland than access c was predicting. seems the low is closer to fraser island/hervey bay than offshore of tincan bay/sunshine coast.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 11:54

"Reaching 20 knots at times". Currently blowing 35. Surely this has to be updated urgently. The tinny brigade will be heading off Mooloolaba after reading that.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 12:03

Low centred near eurong?
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 12:10

Rain eased a bit on the Gold Coast, though still heavy on the hinterland.
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 12:57

imo bom were a bit quick to cancel the flood watch and head home for saturday afternoon drinks. crazy
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 13:08

You know it's hard to identify a singular circulation when even BoM revert back to saying "low pressure complex" instead of "low pressure system".

Anyway, I'm really surprised by this rain today as most if not all models had the heavier stuff much further south by now. I also noticed models had very heavy falls already occurring from the Sunshine Coast south from early this morning which still isn't occurring (yes, there's plenty of showers down there but not huge falls yet as some models were predicting). Convergence does look to be heading south though so the stuff to watch is probably off the northern SC right now.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 13:10

GFS suggests low pressure just east of Maroochydore, 500hp low just west of Brisbane, and 300hp upper level trough NE/SW through Bundaberg. Gympie doppler wind hints at a low a little further north than GFS suggests, maybe east of Rainbow Beach. GFS suggests the low is pretty stretched towards the north, almost a trough so could be why.

Steering winds should push low towards south, but high pressure trap it, and with strength and position towards NZ no surprise it might push the low pressure towards the coast.

Enhanced rainfall to the north of SS coast is a concern for SS coast which is very saturated, with the hint that the rainfall might be further north than forecast, but I think its due to the upper level features and not a secondary low pressure or the main one being further north. Forecasts don't expect enough rain to be a flooding risk and flood watch has been cancelled, but definitely one to watch just in case.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 13:17

Yep Mega, every time there's potential for multiple low pressure centres embedded in a broader area of low pressure or trough, it raises red flags for me in terms of uncertainty in movement and intensities.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 13:23

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
GFS suggests low pressure just east of Maroochydore, 500hp low just west of Brisbane, and 300hp upper level trough NE/SW through Bundaberg. Gympie doppler wind hints at a low a little further north than GFS suggests, maybe east of Rainbow Beach. GFS suggests the low is pretty stretched towards the north, almost a trough so could be why.

Steering winds should push low towards south, but high pressure trap it, and with strength and position towards NZ no surprise it might push the low pressure towards the coast.

Enhanced rainfall to the north of SS coast is a concern for SS coast which is very saturated, with the hint that the rainfall might be further north than forecast, but I think its due to the upper level features and not a secondary low pressure or the main one being further north. Forecasts don't expect enough rain to be a flooding risk and flood watch has been cancelled, but definitely one to watch just in case.


Yeah, the models indicate the surface troughing is tilting to the north with height with a more distinct troughing (even arguably a low) in the midlevels.

I'm not putting too much faith in GFS atm though - once again, even though many models have moved the surface feature south too fast (so far at least anyway), GFS was even further off the mark than many of the others (yesterday's 00z run had it a fair way out to sea east of SE QLD by now). It's hard to know for sure which models are going to be closer to the mark for any given individual setup but the fact that objective skill scores consistently show that GFS is significantly less accurate than some of the other models is hard to ignore. Hopefully its successor will be better in our part of the world. I find it often does do fairly well with TC tracks as well as CAPE fields though. In the meantime, always good to look at all of them to get an idea of the spread of potential scenarios and do a blended consensus approach.

P.S. latest 00z ACCESS-C is out and now tries to ramp up the precip along the coast this afternoon before focussing heavier rainfall over the far southeast corner of SE QLD into this evening.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 13:35

Quite a large blob headin in on the goldy from the east on 256k.
Been plenty of heavy showers here this morning.
DD
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 13:37

Hoping to crack the 50.0mm event total mark at some stage today, currently sitting on 49.8mm
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 13:48

Love both th novice and experienced commenty on this forum- thank you!
I just look for a central point in rotation on the radar , but understand itís a lot more complex than that.
Definitely looks like a wet arvo/night inbound from the east
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 13:50

Frequent heavy drizzle/showers here now & darker. Love all this incoming moisture!
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 13:56

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
[

It's hard to know for sure which models are going to be closer to the mark for any given individual setup but the fact that objective skill scores consistently show that GFS is significantly less accurate than some of the other models is hard to ignore.


How does it compare to Access? I have the impression from somewhere it is overall significantly ahead of Access and close to EC, which leads. Maybe thats old stuff based on pre-Access performance (NOGAPs or whatever it was called). But GFS data is so much more accessible than EC eg BSCH stormcast. So I use a lot of GFS and check against what is available on Tropical Tidbits for EC. Maybe I need to go premium Weatherzone or something to get better EC access.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 14:06

I'm at Point Danger and its howling. Someone got knocked over by the wind near the monument. There ok. Big band heading towards the GC. Surf is messy but huge waves. Some light erosion st Duranbah beach
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 14:06

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
[

It's hard to know for sure which models are going to be closer to the mark for any given individual setup but the fact that objective skill scores consistently show that GFS is significantly less accurate than some of the other models is hard to ignore.


How does it compare to Access? I have the impression from somewhere it is overall significantly ahead of Access and close to EC, which leads. Maybe thats old stuff based on pre-Access performance (NOGAPs or whatever it was called).


Ah, good old LAPS, MLAPS and GASP...those were the days.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 14:06

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
[

It's hard to know for sure which models are going to be closer to the mark for any given individual setup but the fact that objective skill scores consistently show that GFS is significantly less accurate than some of the other models is hard to ignore.


How does it compare to Access? I have the impression from somewhere it is overall significantly ahead of Access and close to EC, which leads. Maybe thats old stuff based on pre-Access performance (NOGAPs or whatever it was called). But GFS data is so much more accessible eg BSCH stormcast. So I use a lot of GFS and check against what is available on Tropical Tidbits for EC.


On average, GFS skill in most parameters is less than ACCESS-G and much less than EC and UK.

But the most important thing to remember is that that's on average. Sometimes, GFS is closer to the mark than EC, etc and often it's not. It's only when you look at the skill for a large sample size that it becomes more obvious. So for any given setup, it still shouldn't be completely ignored - rather, it should be viewed as one of the available models, how it fits in with the consensus of other models, how it's handling a particular situation, etc.
In other words, a single model shouldn't be the only model relied on, even if it's EC.

Here's a graph showing the 24hr precip skill scores over the AU/NZ region as a function of forecast lead time of some of the global models compared with each other. The score technique takes into account the distribution and nature of the rainfall e.g. patchy drizzle vs convective showers/storms vs widespread rain, etc. These scores are averaged over a 3 month period centred on the most recent August we had. The rankings of those models don't change that much. EC/UK are usually no.1 and 2 respectively while GFS (green) is usually 3rd or 4th:


Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 14:12

A bit surprising to me that UK/BOM are ahead of GFS. I think my perception is coloured by ENSO performance where BOM/UK seem to be pretty poor and CFS not fare from EC. Some objective stats I managed to track down from about 2012 showed that quite clearly, and what I've seen since hasn't seemed to change that greatly.

GFS is still mighty impressive compared to what forecasting was like in the 90s though lol.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 14:17

The seasonal forecast versions of the models often use schemes with a lot of differences (quite aside from the fact that seasonal forecasts are ensemble versions of each model) from their medium range versions so it's tricky to compare the two.

I haven't checked that recently but I do remember EC had better skill with seasonal forecasts than a number of other models and POAMA (the seasonal forecast model that the Bureau used but now transitioning to ACCESS-S) had better skill than many others as well. May or may not have changed since I last checked.

But yeah, forecasting's come a long way since the old days. And not just technology but also our knowledge of the mechanisms with various phenomena and weather systems which helps a lot as well.
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 15:24

looks a little more like a low now, on radar, centred around a point east of about poona maybe?
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 15:33

Yeah Poona- eurong east and down to rainbow beach I recon. Hasnít moved much today.

Could also elongate further southeast as the trough/multi centred low that was mentioned.

Just my interpretation but thatís just of the radar

Higgins is posting warnings... northern SC to the border
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 15:33

That big band coming in off GC should swing up and into SEQ. Some good falls coming.

Also, Ken thanks for your illuminating analysis of the modelling. Where does Access-R fit in? It is only useful for short-term convective rain/storms (although it is terrible for night-time or day-to-night transitional rain) or can it be useful for broader scale events like this one. It seems to have done pretty well so far, much better than GFS.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 15:51

Another 6mm here yesterday. Just some wind blown mist so far today. Total for the event so far is 82.5mm.
If some sort of stronger low forms at the coast, we might see an end to the heavier falls inland here. Does this make sense?
I hope for a broad area of low pressure to continue so we cal all share in the watery goodness.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 16:03

Finally cracked the 50.0mm mark event total here...now sitting at 50.6mm
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 16:04

The blob is coming! Going to be some serious rain under that storm wherever it lands.
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 16:10

That blob looks to hit the border unfortunately - no where near brisbane
Posted by: Sandbank

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 16:11

Throwing it down at Caloundra South.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 16:15

At 1500 - 25.4S 153.4E.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 16:17

Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
That blob looks to hit the border unfortunately - no where near brisbane


It's swinging to the NW. It looks to make landfall around southern parts of SEQ but it should then move up toward Brisbane.
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 16:24

Originally Posted By: retired weather man
At 1500 - 25.5S 153.1E.


about eurong.

models to the side for the moment, do these things generally intensify a bit at night?
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 16:35

Originally Posted By: one drop
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
At 1500 - 25.5S 153.1E.


about eurong.

models to the side for the moment, do these things generally intensify a bit at night?


Thanks RWM

Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 16:38

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
GFS suggests low pressure just east of Maroochydore, 500hp low just west of Brisbane, and 300hp upper level trough NE/SW through Bundaberg. Gympie doppler wind hints at a low a little further north than GFS suggests, maybe east of Rainbow Beach. GFS suggests the low is pretty stretched towards the north, almost a trough so could be why.


Lo and behold, 00z GFS adjusts the position of that possible circulation further north, just like you thought:
18z
00z

Wonder if another eddy or low will pop up on the far eastern flank of that trough which extends horizontally off the southern sunny coast? GFS doesn't seem to think so but you never know.

Example.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 16:41

Another circulation east of the border on stapy 512?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 16:47

GFS seems to have relocated the main center towards the northern center, near Fraser Island. I think there were two circulations, one just east of Fraser Island, perhaps more assoiated with the upper level activity, and a stronger one further SE moving towards the coast, which was set to give south SEQ heavy rain but the Fraser Island seems to have become dominant. Although the doppler wind signature does seem better for the southern circulation.

Shift of the rain risk towards the northern end? Heaviest rain has been SS coast and north. GFS stays out to sea, but Access looks to move towards the coast. Regardless of surface low movement the upper activity should keep moving out to sea.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 17:07

Always tricky to get a low to hug the coast when the momentum is usually with the upper level trough or low which in this case is heading offshore. Would be a different story if it slowed down or stalled but that's not expected to happen.
Posted by: Belgarad

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 17:09

That rain sitting off the coast.. it's almost as if it's stalled fingers crossed it makes it to us smile
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 17:41

Below is the latest ASCAT pass (satellite wind analysis derived from the effects of winds on the sea's surface) performed at 4:04pm.

I've marked in the two areas where there's localised cyclonic vorticity of the winds. There's some rain contamination of the data but it's enough to generally show the two main areas where it's digging in along the wind convergence zone with the southeastern one being more prominent (at least at the surface over the ocean):


Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 17:57

Earthnull map shows it nicely also.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 18:11

Cool- so is the se bigger circulation heading west?
Fairly clear on the 512 now
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 18:18

And that chart shows tropical moisture from the NE is completely unable to reach the coast directly, suggesting the potential for any really heavy rain is limited. Satellite suggests heavy convection to the somewhere near the eastern center
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 18:18

Champ
Posted by: Belgarad

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 18:24

The rain seems to be really tapering off as it approaches us.. frown
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 18:35

Showers brought 20.2mm in the 24hrs to 9am. Most of that falling during the early hours of this morning from a showery mass that moved onto the coast between here and Coffs Harbour.
Also surpassed our October monthly average here overnight.

A flood watch for minor flooding remains current for the Bellinger/Kalang and Orara Rivers.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 18:45

At 1730 - 25.5S 154.1E.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 18:59

some awesome averages of Hmax wave heights from the Gold Coast to the Sunshine of 8 meters. Mooloolaba has the highest wave at 8.5 meters

Possible storms with the rain/showers near the coast tonight. I know probably already been mentioned.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 19:36

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mt...4hrs&anim=html5
Circulation of the low now seems evident on TPW loop
The low complex or system, seems to have reasonable feed into it from the north east
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 19:49

So what are the chances of all that wetness coming inland Somerset way? Looks impressive.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 19:50

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
So what are the chances of all that wetness coming inland Somerset way? Looks impressive.


Not sure about inland penetration but I definitely think that band is going to make it on-shore, but probably very coastal. It's just taking forever. We might see similar bands do the same during tomorrow as well.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 19:53

Yeah tomorrow's also still remaining a chance for further extensive shower activity but only for those coastal areas which stay south of any low/s.
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 19:54

I did say the blob wouldn't make it to us, but i was hoping i would be wrong. I think this event over for the brisbane area, just the moderate drizzle and light winds.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 19:56

The possibility of multiple bands of rain in from the sea seems likely. How much inland is at best a guess.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 20:31

Occasional drizzle in Gatton earlier, calm & cool atm.
Posted by: MG4R

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 21:07

Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
I did say the blob wouldn't make it to us, but i was hoping i would be wrong. I think this event over for the brisbane area, just the moderate drizzle and light winds.


I donít see how you can say this when the Low is wrapping back onto the coast.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 21:13

Originally Posted By: MG4R
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
I did say the blob wouldn't make it to us, but i was hoping i would be wrong. I think this event over for the brisbane area, just the moderate drizzle and light winds.


I donít see how you can say this when the Low is wrapping back onto the coast.


It's been coming all day, just taking a very long time. It's likely falls will limited to the far coastal strip, but still head enough inland for Brisbane to get some decent rain.
Posted by: MG4R

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 21:15

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: MG4R
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
I did say the blob wouldn't make it to us, but i was hoping i would be wrong. I think this event over for the brisbane area, just the moderate drizzle and light winds.


I donít see how you can say this when the Low is wrapping back onto the coast.


It's been coming all day, just taking a very long time. It's likely falls will limited to the far coastal strip, but still head enough inland for Brisbane to get some decent rain.

100% agree on this one. I think north Brissy, moreso heading towards Caboolture and due north, will get some very heavy falls tonight and tomorrow morning.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 21:17

It is looking like Cape Moreton to Beenleigh has the advantage for best rain the region for next few hours.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 21:18

last six hours of radar
http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR663-brisbane/2018-10-13-23/2018-10-14-11
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 21:36

Ok I'm confused can someone please explain if there are two lows now or one and where is it/they centred. What is the huge mass off Brisbane. Why is it calm now here in Caloundra. Any thoughts appreciated and thanks in advance.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 21:47

I have thought that two lows may be occurring for the last few hours. But Radar can be deceiving when the potential centre of one low, or centres or multiple lows are around / beyond the target 128k distance of radar setup.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 22:21

Wind is howling again and rainband heading this way.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 22:24

Appears to be only one circulation on water vapour sat image
https://weather.us/satellite/1555-e-265-s/satellite-water-vapor-10min.html#play
Posted by: sharjay

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 22:41

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Wind is howling again and rainband heading this way.

Yep..i think we are in for another drenching tonight...personally i have had enough of the rain and wish it would go inland to the farmers. Wonder if there will be more thunder in it? Had a few rumbles here throughout the day.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 22:43

Ok thanks Flowin. All appears to be rotating around low off Fraser. Will be an intetsting 24 hours.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 22:43

We'll get some rain down here, but it looks like the SC show now. Could be a flood risk with all the rain they've had up there.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 22:45

Originally Posted By: Flowin
Appears to be only one circulation on water vapour sat image
https://weather.us/satellite/1555-e-265-s/satellite-water-vapor-10min.html#play

The water vapour imagery essentially only shows the top of the moist air which is often aloft in the midlevels so it doesn't always show surface features.

115mm so far since 9am today at Upper Springrbook... while isolated falls of 50-90mm have occurred in some parts of the Sunshine Coast & GC Hinterlands.... 25-50mm for many other locations on the Sunshine Coast... 10-25mm for much of the remainder of coastal SEQ... and below 10mm elsewhere.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 22:54

Thanks Ken. I was not aware of that limitation of the satellite water vap image
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 22:54

No worries Flowin.

The satellite analysis of cyclonic vorticity (amount of clockwise twist to the winds) at the 850hpa level (around 5000ft) at 7pm indicates a broad general area off the southern QLD coast (indicated by the red shades) which, at the very least is the broad area of low pressure or troughing and at most, contains one or more smaller low pressure centres.

Unfortunately (and typically), the ASCAT satellite wind passes have been missing our local area in recent hours due to its orbital path.


Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 23:02

Is there a forcefield stopping the rain from coming here or what...been watching that big blob heading here the past few hours, only to have it now disappearing on the radar as it reaches my doorstep....Grrrrr, can't win....was hoping for a half decent downpour tonight looking at the radar earlier on, not so now though. Gonna get some, but not what I hoped for I think.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 23:06

Been watching Stapy & it looks like it keeps wanting to rain on the fish most of the day. Slowly getting there.
Constant light drizzle/rain here.
Posted by: grayarea

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 23:19

Well just started pouring again here.

We are over 400mm so far this month. Just hoping this moves south or inland so others can have their share!
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 23:21

That rainband and associated wind just hit her like a train. Shook the house. People who dont follow the weather must be wondering what the hell is happening. Severe weather indeed must be almost worthy of some sort of warning.
Posted by: sharjay

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 23:22

Heavy rain with strong winds here too. Everything is already saturated. Hope it eases off later tonight.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 23:23

And thanks for the input Ken. Your knowledge is incredible.
Posted by: Lewis

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 23:40

Originally Posted By: grayarea
Well just started pouring again here.

We are over 400mm so far this month. Just hoping this moves south or inland so others can have their share!


I think God has it in for the Sunshine Coast this month. Clearly someone up there has upset him.

75km to the SSW we've only managed 70mm this month, and the rain we're getting here has been mostly light and on-off.
Posted by: explorer

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 14/10/2018 23:44

Add another 40mm since 11:20am today. All up since this event started a couple of days ago (or was it 3?) we have recorded 215mm ... Mostly steady rain, with occasional heavy downpour and the added bonus of no wind or hail or any of those nasty stuff ... feeling blessed at the moment .... Hope everyone is fairing OK from this event too.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 00:12

Interested to see what kind of rain we'll see overnight, it looks like that low is here to stay for a while.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 01:11

Been getting some decent downpours here. Bit of a train of moderate to heavy rainfall finally going over the Brisbane CBD and some of the bayside burbs.

Now up to 135mm at at good old Upper Sprinbrook since 9am today, 105mm at Noosa Heads and 30mm here at home so far.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 06:18

Noosa Heads had over 50mm yesterday, and over 150mm day before so thats over 300m now.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 06:35

All very nice but move it on now please to somewhere else that really needs rain.I can't wait to see a patch of blue sky again.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 06:41

Event total for Saisbury currently sitting at 58.5mm for the past 11 days i think we are now at.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 07:20

94 mm and rising here at Bracken Ridge for this event.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 07:40

Morning all with continuing occasional light drizzle/showers & windy. 8mm so far since yesterday, doesnt look like we will get anything substantial out of this system anymore. Tanks are near full, so that is great.
Posted by: grayarea

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 08:04

Well 52mm for previous 24 hours, Fortunately did not pour all night as was not woken up by rain on roof.
Total for this month 427mm and for the event 325mm. 10 days of precipitation in a row.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 08:27

Beautiful little mesoscale low that's formed just off the coast as clearly revealed in the doppler wind and precip imagery (via Weatherzone)!





Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 08:49

BOM just updated Brisbane's forecast to remove mention of locally heavy falls.
Posted by: whethertraveller

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 08:58

Around 100mm here since Friday night, north of Beenleigh, and still raining with more moderate showers coming in from the ocean.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 09:18

Waterspout potential? Right conditions for it ?
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 09:27

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..15 OCT 2018 TIME..0820

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......18.9C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........93%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........18C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED.....ESE 7Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1018.0HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........10KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........8/8 cloud, slight rain.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........40.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......21.7C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....17.4C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...17.4C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....18C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1017.8Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 36kph at 1031
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Slight rain areas, with moderate showers.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 09:36

24.8S 155.2E - slow movement ENE.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 09:54

Are Brisbane's dams getting any of this rain? This event is similar to October 2010 except that there weren't big storms in the lead up to it.
Posted by: Stormwalker

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 10:00

They'd be getting some, but I think most of this rain is on the coastal side of the catchments (at least for the BNE river anyway).
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 10:03

Hi all , Had a nice 50mm over the last few days .With that bit last week starting to get green grass.
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 10:07

Little bit of inflow into Somerset and Wivenhoe but minimal at this stage.

We'd need to get another decent event in the coming weeks (before the ground dries out again) to really make any significant difference in dam levels.
Posted by: Foehn Correspondent

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 10:10

48 mm to 0900 this morning bring this event now up to 115mm. I had a look at the SE Qld Dam levels before, not a great deal of inflow as Stormwalker has said, even the Gold Coast Dams aren't spilling yet - getting close but not yet. I suppose it shows how dry things were before this event.
Posted by: explorer

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 10:23

Add another 17mm since about midnight last night ... total so far for this event 232mm and we finally get to see the sun this morning for the first time in a few days. Is this over now?
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 10:31

Gleno , i was thinking the same thing re waterspout potential.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 11:14

Be interesting to see if we get future events like this in the coming months if the weather patterns remain the same ? Also weatherzone maps have plotted a warm front over Tasmania ,don't see that too often.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 11:15

Warm fronts actually aren't that rare for the Tasmanian region.
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 11:44

Originally Posted By: Foehn Correspondent
48 mm to 0900 this morning bring this event now up to 115mm. I had a look at the SE Qld Dam levels before, not a great deal of inflow as Stormwalker has said, even the Gold Coast Dams aren't spilling yet - getting close but not yet. I suppose it shows how dry things were before this event.



Little Nerang Dam has just hit the spillway. With plenty more rain coming in we should see the levels in Hinze start to rise soon.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 11:45

It is absolutely chuckin it down here at the moment and has been for the last half an hr. Previous to that was just steady medium rain.
The pool has put on 50mm since last night. Gotta get a weather station.
DD
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 11:50

Great rain band coming through. This one should push up into Brisbane as well.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 12:02

Wish it would come & replace some of the dregs we been getting here. Annoying windy drizzle with some sunny patches.
Posted by: weatheriam

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 12:10

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Wish it would come & replace some of the dregs we been getting here. Annoying windy drizzle with some sunny patches.


Sun? What is that haha
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 12:22

Wow the viz satellite loop is amazing.

There are multiple smaller vortices within the larger system.

http://realtime.bsch.com.au/index.html?r...tart=&stop=#nav
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 12:24

Originally Posted By: Locke
Wow the viz satellite loop is amazing.

There are multiple smaller vortices within the larger system.

http://realtime.bsch.com.au/index.html?r...tart=&stop=#nav


Yep, east coast multi-centred low complex's are so common in this part of the world. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that you don't often see an ECL or similar system that doesn't have at least some form of other secondary weaker/smaller embedded circulations.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 12:42

I'm no trained eye, but is that mass about 600k's off shore and swingin through the southern quadrant on that sat view, thunderstorm / heavy rain headin for the goldy??
DD
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 12:48

That thunderstorm activity has been sitting out there for days DDstorm just expect more of the same wind and rain but not so heavy.
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 12:54

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Locke
Wow the viz satellite loop is amazing.

There are multiple smaller vortices within the larger system.

http://realtime.bsch.com.au/index.html?r...tart=&stop=#nav


Yep, east coast multi-centred low complex's are so common in this part of the world. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that you don't often see an ECL or similar system that doesn't have at least some form of other secondary weaker/smaller embedded circulations.


I see at least 3 smaller vortices rotating around the larger circulation. Very cool !
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 12:57

Seems to be travelling at speed, but ok. You've certainly had a deluge this morning. 24 mm's till 9 then 26 mm's from 9 till 11.30. Bucketing!!
DD
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 13:02

I like the direction this rain band is heading, as long as it doesnt crap itself when it crosses Mt Glorious ranges.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 13:04

I've been tinkering around with a much faster (but much more crude) version of my "model interpreter" script over the last few weeks. This version uses FV3 instead of multiple models.

Just ignore the thunderstorm bits in the output - they still need to be fixed.

There's no real practical purpose to this script though - just purely for my own entertainment purposes to see what sorts of things it spits out for any location you want it to look at. It has been calibrated extensively to past observations though. This is what it spat out for today (showers/rain may ease sooner or later than indicated in the output):






Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 13:28

Plenty of pictures and reports have come through since Thursday's storm and it would seem that we got off very lightly compared to Maryborough West. Trees completely stripped, much larger hail (and more of it) and dead livestock all over the place. Many residents out there are still without power also. Just devastating stuff.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 13:35

Yes tragic stuff Mega, could have been a lot worse had the cell not weakened.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 13:58

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I've been tinkering around with a much faster (but much more crude) version of my "model interpreter" script over the last few weeks. This version uses FV3 instead of multiple models.

Just ignore the thunderstorm bits in the output - they still need to be fixed.

There's no real practical purpose to this script though - just purely for my own entertainment purposes to see what sorts of things it spits out for any location you want it to look at. It has been calibrated extensively to past observations though. This is what it spat out for today (showers/rain may ease sooner or later than indicated in the output):



Can't help but ask whether temps in the high teens in October at 1pm should be considered normal for Brisbane and get the green colour?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 14:08

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Can't help but ask whether temps in the high teens in October at 1pm should be considered normal for Brisbane and get the green colour?

I canít renember why I designed it that way (the original design itís based on was from a long time ago) but I think it may have been because I only wanted to highlight potentially hazardous phenomena like thunderstorms in amber and red.
Posted by: Blinky_Bill

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 14:09

The showers passing Beenleigh are getting very gusty at the moment.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 14:22

The thing that suprised me is, normally you get these lows in the Autumn months if i'm not mistaken? I cannot recall the last time we had a low off the coast in October? So what has shifted in the weather patterns in the month to go from near to no rain in September to a wet October?
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 14:41

Originally Posted By: gleno71
The thing that suprised me is, normally you get these lows in the Autumn months if i'm not mistaken? I cannot recall the last time we had a low off the coast in October? So what has shifted in the weather patterns in the month to go from near to no rain in September to a wet October?


Check the most recent page on the day-to-day weather thread. I quoted a poster's thoughts on this from another thread. In this case it appears to be a long-term pattern of active long-wave troughing in the Australian region. This has caused a lot of the persistent storm events in the last month and a bit.

As for this event it's not so much a specific pattern as just a combination of factors, some of which were caused by the long-wave pattern mentioned earlier. We originally had the troughing, then a stalled southerly with an approaching upper trough from central Australia. All that converging low pressure and turning winds in the atmosphere spawned a low complex. There's a strong blocking high in the Tasman pinning the low in place allowing it to remain slow-moving and close to the coast.

Might be off the mark here - Ken and others feel free to correct.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 14:45

Blob bound for Sunny Coast by the time it curves under low????
Posted by: MG4R

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 15:05

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Blob bound for Sunny Coast by the time it curves under low????


I think Northern suburbs of Brisbane are in line once again for the Low off the coast. It will then be dependent on how it tracks on the coastline as to how much rain areas get.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 15:44

At 1400 - 25.05S 156.3E, slowly moving away.
Posted by: Kino

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 16:01

That next trough is giving it the shove east.
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 16:12

I'm not seeing that on the vis satellite loop.

Still multiple vortices with one rapidly approaching the coast that can be seen on the 256km loop.

One suspects that as it approaches the coast it will start to take a more northerly trajectory as it rotates clockwise around the larger circulations.

Dependent on how close it gets, were likely to see heavy rain tonight to the North of Brisbane perhaps.

http://realtime.bsch.com.au/index.html?r...tart=&stop=#nav
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 16:39

Originally Posted By: gleno71
The thing that suprised me is, normally you get these lows in the Autumn months if i'm not mistaken? I cannot recall the last time we had a low off the coast in October? So what has shifted in the weather patterns in the month to go from near to no rain in September to a wet October?


I think September or October would be the rarest month for ECLs near SEQ, but they have occurred in the past. None that I can specifically remember.

I think the upper level troughing has been quite active in Australia's vicinity for a few months. In winter it was too dry here for the systems to achieve much, but as the season has shifted there is now enough moisture that these systems have something to play with in this region.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 16:39

Nice brief chunky showers have made it all the way to the Southern Downs. Usually the range eats them up before they make it here. Keeping the ground nice and moist.
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 17:08

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: gleno71
The thing that suprised me is, normally you get these lows in the Autumn months if i'm not mistaken? I cannot recall the last time we had a low off the coast in October? So what has shifted in the weather patterns in the month to go from near to no rain in September to a wet October?


I think September or October would be the rarest month for ECLs near SEQ, but they have occurred in the past. None that I can specifically remember.



A year ago nearly to the day!! Not sure if it was an ECL but wind directions suggest a fairly similar situation.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/201710/html/IDCJDW4118.201710.shtml
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 17:58

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber

I think September or October would be the rarest month for ECLs near SEQ, but they have occurred in the past. None that I can specifically remember.


This is a useful reference list of historical ECLs 1846 - 2009
http://hardenup.org/umbraco/customContent/media/1153_EastCoastLows_1846-2009.pdf
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 18:24

Wynnum Nth event to date total from 4 Oct - 104.2mm.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 19:30

Could the upper trough out west interact with this weather system to further enhance rainfall?
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 19:45

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Could the upper trough out west interact with this weather system to further enhance rainfall?


Nah, current trough rapidly weakens and slips far, far away to the SE by Wednesday. The most we can hope for from that second trough is maybe the odd storm later in the week.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 19:58

Cool thanks Mega. Just looks like they are about to interact on the bsch link Locke posted a couple of hours back.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 21:14

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: gleno71
The thing that suprised me is, normally you get these lows in the Autumn months if i'm not mistaken? I cannot recall the last time we had a low off the coast in October? So what has shifted in the weather patterns in the month to go from near to no rain in September to a wet October?


Check the most recent page on the day-to-day weather thread. I quoted a poster's thoughts on this from another thread. In this case it appears to be a long-term pattern of active long-wave troughing in the Australian region. This has caused a lot of the persistent storm events in the last month and a bit.

As for this event it's not so much a specific pattern as just a combination of factors, some of which were caused by the long-wave pattern mentioned earlier. We originally had the troughing, then a stalled southerly with an approaching upper trough from central Australia. All that converging low pressure and turning winds in the atmosphere spawned a low complex. There's a strong blocking high in the Tasman pinning the low in place allowing it to remain slow-moving and close to the coast.

Might be off the mark here - Ken and others feel free to correct.



Thanks for the explanation, sounds like your on the money there
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 22:00

4.5mm here today. Event total 87.5mm.
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 22:19

Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber

I think September or October would be the rarest month for ECLs near SEQ, but they have occurred in the past. None that I can specifically remember.


This is a useful reference list of historical ECLs 1846 - 2009
http://hardenup.org/umbraco/customContent/media/1153_EastCoastLows_1846-2009.pdf


The 2007 ecl off the sunny coast was pretty amazing. Nearly 800mm in 24hrs at coops corner from memory
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 15/10/2018 23:22

Yeah, 772 or 776mm in 24hrs at Coops Corner. There were also some other falls around 400-600mm in that general region. That ECL was in August and caused major flooding in parts of the Sunshine Coast.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 06:46

Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
4.5mm here today. Event total 87.5mm.
good to read Warwick had that amount, as we know how badly you lot needed it out there.....70.3mm for the event here at Salisbury.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 07:17

As at 0610 ( 16/10/2018) we have recorded 111mm for this event. Still have the odd shower approaching with quick heavy falls so the total may increase slightly. All in all a nice steady fall so that the ground caught most of the rain instead in lieu of heavy falls and run-offs.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 07:50

The decision not to issue a severe weather warning for the most recent round of rainfall ended up being a good one.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 08:30

What about the decision not to issue a severe weather warning for the return of the bright yellow thing. My eyes, they burn! My skin, it sears!
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 08:36

Well this has been an absorbing event, from the extended storm outbreak to the supercells and then to the ECL.

Brisbane saw some of its highest rain this year despite the lack of note-worthy falls. Had a look at the rainfall for the year and we really have not received much:

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weath..._stn_num=040913
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 08:42

Yes an amazing turnaround alright.Personally I'm glad to see that ECL bugger off and a return of that bright yellow thing sooner rather than later.That high out in the Tasman is massive and looks like it will be parked there for sometime.Humidity levels are gunna be high methinks.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 08:43

Lol Mike, yeah it feels a bit weird seeing the sun again after all this time. But I liked its absence.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 08:46

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The decision not to issue a severe weather warning for the most recent round of rainfall ended up being a good one.

BTW just to clarify, I was referring to not issuing a SWW for heavy rain... not the dangerous surf.

Also interesting to note that 00z run the other day which initially confined most of the heavier falls much further north than the 12z run, ended up spreading it back further south.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 08:48

As this is the last day of this thread - Wynnum Nth total rain 114.8mm.




WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..16 OCT 2018 TIME..0740

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......22.2C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........89%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........20C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED.....SE 10Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1017.50HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........15KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........7/8 cloud, distant showers.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........18.4mm

LAST 24 HOURS -

YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP ......23.6C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....18.4C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...18.1C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....18C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1016.5Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..SE 60kph at 1655
PAST 24 HOUR WHR SUMMARY...Showers, some moderate
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 09:19

125mm here since the start of the event.

Very happy to see such an extended period of interesting weather, makes me hopeful for the rest of summer.

Thanks to all the gurus for providing your input as always smile
Posted by: Wight

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 09:24

268mm here between last Tuesday 9/10 and 0630 today. More showers coming in now.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 10:06

19mm last 24hrs & continuing drizzle/ showers. Beautiful soaking rain, how good is that?
Yea, time for the sun to come out, skin is turning pale already!
Posted by: Bone Dry

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 10:08

284mm since the 4th.

Total so far for October 289mm. Currently about 100mm short of last October but still likely the second wettest October on record since 1914.
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 10:23

Ken, do you think BOM would ever give public access to the Upper Springbrook alert? To me, it is such a shame to have such a fantastic site restricted to just what we see on the daily rainfall bulletin. I would love to see historical data for it and to be able to see 15 min updates like many other sites.

After the west coast of NZ and possibly mount read, you would have to think the upper springbrook site would have to be the wettest site in the world south of the tropic of capricorn?
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 12:36

Hi adam
I think Tully up in north qld would beat Springbrook by a long shot
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 12:40

Originally Posted By: tsunami
Hi adam
I think Tully up in north qld would beat Springbrook by a long shot


Thats north of the tropic of Capricorn. I was just talking about sites south of it
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 12:52

The area near Maleny might give Springbrook a good run for its money. Crohamurst, just to the south, holds the 24 hour record rainfall for Australia at 903mm in 1893.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 12:55

You can view some all-time record daily/monthly/annual rainfall amounts here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/extreme/records.shtml

Adam: No idea re if/when the sub-daily rainfall obs on the public site, sorry.
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 13:13

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
You can view some all-time record daily/monthly/annual rainfall amounts here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/extreme/records.shtml

Adam: No idea re if/when the sub-daily rainfall obs on the public site, sorry.


Unless the station is privately owned, then I don't see any reason why the data isn't made available to the public in real time. Why does it need to restricted to BOM? Just seems weird to me that I can get 15 min updates on the dry creeks up here on the downs but you can't get anything like that for Upper Springbrook.
Posted by: Timbuck

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 13:19


Really interesting radar at the moment.

Not a squall in the ocean and all propergating just on the coast ?? Showers are very short and sharp and heavy.
Anyone care to explain why please ?? Is it just due to heat convection ??

Cheers

Tim
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 16:20

Yea and SE'ly steering winds theres still abit of the weak mid level trough lingering from that low that is offshore. It's probably going to stuff up any good action for us though need it gone so we can get a more NE'ly fetch.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 16:36

Classic Cairns type weather, humid, Soueasterly winds pushin moisture in land and causing showers on the higher ground.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 16:39

Except about 4C cooler!
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 16:40

Yea the weather will be boring as now that I'm back in town lol.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 16:42

Originally Posted By: Timbuck

Really interesting radar at the moment.

Not a squall in the ocean and all propergating just on the coast ?? Showers are very short and sharp and heavy.
Anyone care to explain why please ?? Is it just due to heat convection ??

Cheers

Tim


These setups are pretty common in these types of regimes but moreso around late summer/early autumn. Moist onshore flow (with ESE steering winds aloft) causing onshore showers which then get enhanced as they travel a bit further inland by the modest instability (helped by some heating as well) over land.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 16:45

Interesting line of thunderstorms on the lightning tracker over western NSW don't think anywhere will miss out !
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 16:55

Yea I was looking at the setup for later this week, that trough really weakens later on as it moves closer to us and the biggest mid level ridge you've ever seen replaces it. Looks ok for inland areas.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 17:33

looks like an easter time pattern. 160mm at my joint all up. Brought everything to life.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 17:45

Originally Posted By: Steve O
Yea I was looking at the setup for later this week, that trough really weakens later on as it moves closer to us and the biggest mid level ridge you've ever seen replaces it. Looks ok for inland areas.


Is this mid level cap just coastal again
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 17:49

Yes Namarrkun, a nice change for this area. More good news, another 11.5mm today. Event total now 99mm.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 18:52

Tweedstorm: I was referring to the 500hpa level which does sometimes confuse me if its mid level or upper level. It only looks like for Fri-Sat but the weaker winds and they would be associated with that warmer stable air. IMO higher winds speeds at that level would aid to better shear and ultimately we get better storms if shear is right and ofcourse cold air aloft. Sorry about my lack of detail on my last post wish I had the time to really look into things deeper as it becomes abit of a guess. Just talking weather happy to hear your thoughts.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 18:58

Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
Yes Namarrkun, a nice change for this area. More good news, another 11.5mm today. Event total now 99mm.
just 1.6mm for us today, brings event total to 71.9mm for Salisbury.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 19:20

Originally Posted By: Adam Ant
Ken, do you think BOM would ever give public access to the Upper Springbrook alert? To me, it is such a shame to have such a fantastic site restricted to just what we see on the daily rainfall bulletin. I would love to see historical data for it and to be able to see 15 min updates like many other sites.

After the west coast of NZ and possibly mount read, you would have to think the upper springbrook site would have to be the wettest site in the world south of the tropic of capricorn?

There are two rain pluviometer gauge recordings at Springbrook (1) an Alert station data operated by BoM and (2) Telemetry station data recorded by Qld department of natural resources mines and energy - their data is available at
https://water-monitoring.information.qld.gov.au/
Look for standalone pluviometer gauges.
2012 to 2018 with about a one year gap shows 15000mm total recorded over that period!

Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 19:21

While today's rainfall was modest, I was surprised at how far inland the showers penetrated. Scenic Rim area in particular did well.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 19:39

You're not wrong re rubbish shear on Fri/Sat Steve O. Although the upper levels are cool on Friday, that's only because there's a big upper trough just off the Queensland coast during this time. There's no real steering influences or decent triggers behind it. Garden variety pulsey crap at most. On Saturday, the mids-uppers warm drastically as the upper trough moves away and is replaced by the quidge - one of those 'dry' looking, stable days with an unbreakable cap it's looking like. At the same time though, there's a really nice front moving through far SW parts and NE NSW which reaches SEQ on Sunday. Sunday looks okay at this stage but obviously the usual factors could complicate things, too early to tell.

PS check out the buildup through western parts of NSW and parts of QLD currently. Really nice to see:

Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 19:46

Sunday GFS going for a severe setup for the SE QLD region.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 19:47

There's already been some mentions of it in the Day to Day thread also. Sunday would depend on the timing of the coastal change among other things too.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 19:58

Hard to get excited about the upcoming set-up if you live in coastal SEQ. Even Sunday looks problematic in so many ways despite the pretty colours on GFS. Inland areas are going to have a lot of fun though and the weekend outlook may yet improve for us over the coming days.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 20:05

Yea Its still going to be better than just fully stable weather and dry Nw'lys but they will be coming.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD/NENSW Rain & Thunderstorms (including the Tansey Tornado) - 4th to 16th October 2018 - 16/10/2018 20:06

Oh sorry keep jumping between threads. Think the next lot of upcoming weather needs to be in the day to day or new thread.