SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019

Posted by: Seabreeze

SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/12/2018 20:04

New year, new me!

Welcome to 2019's Day-to-Day weather thread.

Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/12/2018 20:19

Thanks 'seabreeze' for your dedication and work on the WZ forum. Much appreciated.
Hope you have a great 2019

An interesting feature for the east quadrant of Australia .
An upper trough. North W /south E aligned
3- ~ 6th jan 2019
It could be described as weak because no Jetstream features?

It stalls for 3 days.
East coast Australia is on the exit stream of the trough.
Here is a snap for Thursday when it first appears on ACCESS g forec ast.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/12/2018 23:24

Cheers Crikey. smile

Anvils from storms on the ranges spread towards this part of the coast this afternoon/evening. STW was issued for some elevated parts of the MNC earlier today.

The ranges and foothills of the MNC are likely to see a few storms tomorrow, with chances becoming increasingly unlikely though the further east across the coastal plain you get.
Posted by: pabloako

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/01/2019 08:24

I just managed to crack 1000mm in 2018, with a total of 1012mm for the year. Luckily there were some solid falls in this area in October, otherwise it would have been a very dry year.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/01/2019 08:43

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..1 JAN 2019 TIME..0730

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.6C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........63%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 19C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...E 15Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1015.3HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........25KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........4/8 cloud, haze.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......31.2C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....22.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...20.9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....18C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1015.4Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 34kph at 1018
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... No significant weather.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/01/2019 09:04

Feeling very warm this morning. Its 26.3 deg c at 7.50am . Coolongatta

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/observations/qldall.shtml?ref=hdr

Expected top of 30 deg c l believe. Low wind making things a little uncomfortable. HAPPY NEW YEAR.. WEATHER WATCHERS. May it be a great but safe one for you all.
cool
Posted by: T.rex

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/01/2019 12:19

A Very Happy New Year to Everyone, and thanks to the Stalwarts in the group who keep the interest up, and provide so much meteorological information. And let's not forget the Photographers, they play a large part in the interest with some excellent weather photography.

My Annual Rainfall report for NE Toowoomba in 2018 has given us 597.2mm for the year, with 85 days on which rain was recorded. February was the wettest month with 188.7mm, and April the driest month at 6.5mm. During the 6 months from April to September, we only registered 77.2mm in total.

To compare with previous years:-

2017 922.1mm
2016 675.3mm
2015 704.7mm
Prior to that we lived in Brisbane.

I would be interested to see rainfall figures for other parts of Toowoomba, if anyone would like to post them.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/01/2019 13:28

Happy New Year everyone,
what are the chances of some rain in next few weeks? Starting to dry out.
Posted by: AnnerleyX1

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/01/2019 19:09

Really not much on the horizon for at least the next 10 days. Seems we're in a bit of a groundhog situation right now - endless dry days between 21 and 32 degrees.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/01/2019 19:20

Some storm activity approaching Tenterfield currently. tracking north and west of the divide currently.
7.18pm .512km Brisbane radar
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR501.loop.shtml
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/01/2019 19:50

We are in the proximity of surface troughing to our west currently.
An upper trough forming in the coming days over the eastern quadrant of Australia.

The prospect of coral sea surface in-feed courtesy of the west flank of the Tasman high.

Hopeful of something of interest for some people in our region this week
-------
ACCESS r showing light precipitation signal tomorrow mainly west of the divide.
If this evening is any indication then may be more embedded storms west of divide tomorrow.
The signal commences at 2pm and weakens about 8pm.

Quite a long line , north/ south aligned from east Gippsland in VIC , right up to 28s latitude by 2pm , which is about the latitude of the tweed
Extends north at diurnal max into tea time right up to 25s but west of the divide.
The activity weakens when the sun goes down in our neck of the woods .
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
----
Actually if you are up at 4am tomorrow morning there is an intense band/patch forecast out west of divide between the tweed and Brisbane area..
Zoomed in
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/01/2019 20:07

T-Rex, 2018 was our 2nd worst year out of the last 5. If is wasnt for October weíd have been lucky to make 300mm for the year. (Jimbour QLD)
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/01/2019 21:00

Happy new year everyone I've spent the past few weeks all over the place from Brisbane to the north coast of NSW and the north island of New Zealand for the last 5 days (where it was way too cold for this QLD'er!!) We finished 2018 with 660mm, like Lani a very dry year overall but with a few wet months (Feb, Oct and Dec) to buck the trend. Heres hoping for a wet 2019!
Posted by: JLo

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/01/2019 21:58

We had over 2500mm at our property just west of maleny for the year. It sits at 550m elevation and seems to get a bit more than the town itself when it's raining.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/01/2019 22:22

1532.4mm fell here during 2018, which is 41.6mm above our yearly average.
March was the wettest month (475.0mm), and May was the driest (12.4mm).

-----

Thunderdays & Thunderstorm hits yearly totals over the past six calendar years here at South West Rocks:

2018 - 58 thunderdays & 45 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: December)
2017 - 56 thunderdays & 44 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: December)
2016 - 45 thunderdays & 31 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: November)
2015 - 64 thunderdays & 47 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: January)
2014 - 50 thunderdays & 40 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: December)
2013 - 43 thunderdays & 30 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: November)
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/01/2019 07:28

Good old January. Some of our biggest rain events come in January with near max potential for atmospheric moisture. But regular rain is a bit harder to come by. Best of the storm season gone. SE Shower season yet to make a visit. Monsoon trying to get its act together a long way to the north.

The ridge thinks we looks lonely so comes over for a visit. 'Let me tell you the story of how I once helped trap an ECL just to your north for 3 days straight to try and cheer you up' it says.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/01/2019 08:57

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..2 JAN 2019 TIME..0750

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......27.1C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........60%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 18C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...E 12Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1014.2HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........25KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........5/8 cloud, haze.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......30.5C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....20.4C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...17.3C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....17C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1013.5Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 30kph at 1317
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Haze.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/01/2019 08:58

Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
1532.4mm fell here during 2018, which is 41.6mm above our yearly average.
March was the wettest month (475.0mm), and May was the driest (12.4mm).

-----

Thunderdays & Thunderstorm hits yearly totals over the past six calendar years here at South West Rocks:

2018 - 58 thunderdays & 45 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: December)
2017 - 56 thunderdays & 44 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: December)
2016 - 45 thunderdays & 31 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: November)
2015 - 64 thunderdays & 47 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: January)
2014 - 50 thunderdays & 40 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: December)
2013 - 43 thunderdays & 30 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: November)


Counted 14 thunderday around here since the start of the storm season pretty pathetic really.They might have toreadjust their assessment of titles and name the mid North coast the storm capital 2nd to Darwin
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/01/2019 08:59

A strong trough line (n/S) from GOC to east VIC, forecast by ACCESS g passing through inland NSW and QLD , 8th Jan.
EX -PENNY making a b line for coastal latitude 17s( ~Cairns) at the same time .
Strong ridging keeping her well north.
That additional moisture infeed from TS penny and the Coral sea could ramp the storms and rainfall.
A tropical dip in isobars for this trough provides adeded interest.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/01/2019 09:41

A belated happy new year everyone and thanks for setting up the thread Seabreeze
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/01/2019 09:54




Tomorrow (Thursday) might still see some thunder starting to develop from somewhat early on (mainly favouring northern and possibly inland parts of SE QLD) with some of the beefier showers moving in from the NE.

But shear and steering winds are very weak so most of the thunder should take the form of slow erratically-moving activity that might give a reasonable drop to a lucky few rather than a tradition organised severe thunderstorm setup. Slightly cooler midlevels inland and a bit of extra moisture should help a bit with the modest instability.

Multiweek EC ensemble has been suggesting slightly elevated risk of wetter than normal conditions developing over parts of eastern Australia within the next few weeks but the higher probabilities currently favour areas like NSW.

Above is the percentage of models including the members of the EC ensemble dropping more than 1 and 5mm of rainfall between 10pm tonight and 10pm Thursday night via WATL - it clearly shows the northern parts have the better chances of seeing something.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/01/2019 10:20

Managed several showers this morning, but I don't think any would be heavy enough to register with the heaviest just enough to make the concrete a patchy damp.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/01/2019 17:18

Just checked in to see how Access r was fairing with its precipitation signal and north/south line out west of divide. Bit disappointed really. Only one storm evident near Glen Innes.
5pm .. wondering if its getting too late for anything else to develop. . Maybe l will check later.
However capturing that Nw/Se line nicely and oh my is she firing. Dangerous storms near Sydney and blue mountains l believe.

Grafton 512km radar
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR281.loop.shtml
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/01/2019 18:21

EC +240 hrs - no sign of ridge breaking.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/01/2019 18:39

Yes looking like a dry January unless something dramatic happens.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/01/2019 19:20

I'm wondering if there are any statistics on long term Tasman dwelling High Pressure systems ie is there any record for the longest serving High to park it's backside in the Tasman sea.This current high might be shaping up as a worthwhile contestant.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/01/2019 19:26

I've often wondered the same thing TS and I've also often wondered if they were always this regular and long-lasting.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/01/2019 19:36






Originally Posted By: Mega
I've often wondered the same thing TS and I've also often wondered if they were always this regular and long-lasting.

I'm not personally aware of any stats about record-breaking highs but there is data on the long term changes in the density and central pressures of highs and lows such as the examples above via the Bureau.

The 1st map shows the change in the frequency of highs in summer since 1970 while the 2nd map shows the change averaged across all seasons. The frequency values are calculated from the number of highs per degree of latitude squared per time block. The caveat is that it won't indicate how suddenly or slowly the change has happened unless you look at the time series graphs (but they do generally show the change has been gradual and fairly sustained).

Still looking like the chance of any thunder with the shower activity on Thursday will probably be mainly confined to northern parts of SE QLD with erratic slow-moving activity that has a general tendency to track further inland and little severity.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/01/2019 19:53





Originally Posted By: Ken Kato





Originally Posted By: Mega
I've often wondered the same thing TS and I've also often wondered if they were always this regular and long-lasting.

I'm not personally aware of any stats about record-breaking highs but there is data on the long term changes in the density and central pressures of highs and lows such as the examples above via the Bureau.

The 1st map shows the change in the frequency of highs in summer since 1970 while the 2nd map shows the change averaged across all seasons. The frequency values are calculated from the number of highs per degree of latitude squared per time block. The caveat is that it won't indicate how suddenly or slowly the change has happened unless you look at the time series graphs (but they do generally show the change has been gradual and fairly sustained).

Still looking like the chance of any thunder with the shower activity on Thursday will probably be mainly confined to northern parts of SE QLD with erratic slow-moving activity that has a general tendency to track further inland and little severity.


Have added a couple of graphs above re my previous post. The link to the long term changes is here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=trend-maps
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/01/2019 20:38

Looking at ACCESS southern hemisphere (7 day}
You can see that ALL the high pressure cells are stationary and and appear to be bobbing up and down on top of the contracted westerly belt. O think these are referred to as standing wave pattern.
In fact l will say there are no waves the sub polar belt appears to be in a state of no waves. Very flat. Zero amplitude
What is the name of the anomaly for the westerly belt ? Forgotten
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-thick&tz=UTC&area=G&model=G
One link to research here.
https://research.monash.edu/en/publicati...ad-up-to-summer
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/01/2019 21:12

Another link to blocking high anomalies
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/blocking/real_time_sh/real_time_index_nrm.shtml
Positive SAM currently
https://blog.metservice.com/Southern-Annular-Mode
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/01/2019 21:18

I sort of disagree re all of the high pressure cells in the SH being stationary especially compared with ours. Looping GFS or EC MSLP charts from the last week or even from this week until next, you'll see all of the other highs around the SH moving from west to east as they should be while ours has remained weak and just sat there. There does appear to be a block off South America but I'm not sure if it's related. From a model run last Thursday:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...2018122700&fh=0

Could have something to do with the Hadley Cell as mentioned in another thread as well.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/01/2019 21:37

I am not sure MEGA. I have not been following for awhile.
That is just what l saw on ACCESS 7 day forecast for the SH.
BOM have a few special climate reports from similar circumstances. Blocking Highs in the Tasman. cause heatwaves in VIC and Tasmania no 63 or 64?
I believe the meteorologists use the term teleconnections
In this case, how does whats going on in higher latitudes affect the high pressure belt.
OR? what else
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/01/2019 21:38

Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
1532.4mm fell here during 2018, which is 41.6mm above our yearly average.
March was the wettest month (475.0mm), and May was the driest (12.4mm).

-----

Thunderdays & Thunderstorm hits yearly totals over the past six calendar years here at South West Rocks:

2018 - 58 thunderdays & 45 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: December)
2017 - 56 thunderdays & 44 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: December)
2016 - 45 thunderdays & 31 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: November)
2015 - 64 thunderdays & 47 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: January)
2014 - 50 thunderdays & 40 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: December)
2013 - 43 thunderdays & 30 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: November)


Counted 14 thunderday around here since the start of the storm season pretty pathetic really.They might have toreadjust their assessment of titles and name the mid North coast the storm capital 2nd to Darwin
Yikes, I didn't realise it had been that poor at Tweed Heads.

There's been 30 thunderdays (and 28 thunderstorm hits) here at South West Rocks since the start of this storm season. It's been a good season so far.
Has been quiet since the ridge began its authoritarian regime at Christmas, but it's fairly normal to get a "lull" in storm activity at some point during the summer (with this usually happening in either January or February). Almost like a mid-season break between the 'primary' and 'secondary' parts of the storm season.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/01/2019 06:13

Ohh lovely rain
4mm in last hour
What a pleasant suprise
BOM have up chances of rain
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/01/2019 06:52

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato



Tomorrow (Thursday) might still see some thunder starting to develop from somewhat early on (mainly favouring northern and possibly inland parts of SE QLD) with some of the beefier showers moving in from the NE.

But shear and steering winds are very weak so most of the thunder should take the form of slow erratically-moving activity that might give a reasonable drop to a lucky few rather than a tradition organised severe thunderstorm setup. Slightly cooler midlevels inland and a bit of extra moisture should help a bit with the modest instability.

Multiweek EC ensemble has been suggesting slightly elevated risk of wetter than normal conditions developing over parts of eastern Australia within the next few weeks but the higher probabilities currently favour areas like NSW.

Above is the percentage of models including the members of the EC ensemble dropping more than 1 and 5mm of rainfall between 10pm tonight and 10pm Thursday night via WATL - it clearly shows the northern parts have the better chances of seeing something.


Not really a surprise IMO poke Weíve had some decent but brief downpours here so far this morning, one of which woke me up.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/01/2019 07:12

I was looking at upper charts yesterday I think to see what was happening with TC Penny and was surprised to see an upper level low overhead. Very weak though.

Nice to have an upgrade to 5-20mm expected today for SS coast.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/01/2019 08:13

Will all these cyclones sitting up north draw the moisture away as in past cyclones or are they not a big enough system to do that?
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/01/2019 08:17

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..3 JAN 2019 TIME..0705

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......21.7C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........88%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 20C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...WSW 4Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1014.2HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........7/8 cloud, nearby showers.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.8mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......30.7C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....21.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...20.9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....19C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1012.8Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..NE 34kph at 1309
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Overnight and early morning showers.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/01/2019 08:40

Interesting thanks for your research on High Pressure systems Ken and Mega, that graph re the strength of highs showing a gradual but strengthening of them is a concern.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/01/2019 09:13

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato


The 1st map shows the change in the frequency of highs in summer since 1970 while the 2nd map shows the change averaged across all seasons. The frequency values are calculated from the number of highs per degree of latitude squared per time block. The caveat is that it won't indicate how suddenly or slowly the change has happened unless you look at the time series graphs (but they do generally show the change has been gradual and fairly sustained).



Does this mean more high pressure overall? Could not the same trend be achieved if there is the same amount of high pressure, but just broken up into smaller individual cells?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/01/2019 09:24

Originally Posted By: crikey
I am not sure MEGA. I have not been following for awhile.
That is just what l saw on ACCESS 7 day forecast for the SH.
BOM have a few special climate reports from similar circumstances. Blocking Highs in the Tasman. cause heatwaves in VIC and Tasmania no 63 or 64?
I believe the meteorologists use the term teleconnections
In this case, how does whats going on in higher latitudes affect the high pressure belt.
OR? what else


A lot of the influence on the high pressure belt is where the jetstream splits or buckles. The jetstream can be straight around a tight polar vortext and everything moves west to east quickly. It can get bendy with lots of buckles and everything slows down. Buckles can break of loops creating cut off lows that are near stationary. The jetstream can split with an upper level high sitting in the split.

Rossby waves also transmit instability from Tropics to the higher lattitudes. When the IOD and ENSO are favourable tropical activity increases to Australia's northwest, and Rossby waves transmit this instability to the SE and there is more instability over the rest of Australia. When IOD/ENSO not favourable more tendency you get more stability and maybe more high pressure, but I think this is more an upper level thing than lower levels. And favourable ENSO/IOD over north Australia will also expand low pressure from the north pushing the high pressure further south.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/01/2019 09:31

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato


The 1st map shows the change in the frequency of highs in summer since 1970 while the 2nd map shows the change averaged across all seasons. The frequency values are calculated from the number of highs per degree of latitude squared per time block. The caveat is that it won't indicate how suddenly or slowly the change has happened unless you look at the time series graphs (but they do generally show the change has been gradual and fairly sustained).



Does this mean more high pressure overall? Could not the same trend be achieved if there is the same amount of high pressure, but just broken up into smaller individual cells?

The highs have to meet certain a intensity/pressure gradient to contribute to the count on those maps:

Ē The intensity of anticyclones in terms of gradients of pressure is required to be at least 0.075 hPa per degree of latitude squared, as averaged within a 5 degree (~550 km) radius of the centre of the anticyclone. ď
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/01/2019 09:48

Happy New Year 2019 everyone!
I just heard on 9ís Today Show that 2019 is forecast to be overall hot and dry for eastern Australia. Does anyone know where they could be getting this information? Thanks.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/01/2019 09:54

Same place all long range forecasts come from , out of their ar$e. Pays not to ignore bom though, forecast chance of a shower this morning, I thought gee thatís a long shot, left work boots and campchair out on lawn overnight. And sure enough , 2mm in gauge and in work boots.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/01/2019 11:47

Long range forecasts come from various places. Of course from Bom and their excellent climatologists. Also from other sources like A climatologist based at the USQ(University Of southern QLD). Here is an article from a USQ Newsletter from last year.
"Professor Stone was recently elected President of the WMOís Commission for Agricultural Meteorology and is the first Australian to be selected for this role.

The four-year position will see Professor Stone lead the Commission, which will prioritise the need for better services for farmers and agribusiness (ranging from localised weather forecasts to seasonal climate outlooks) and better weather and climate risk management.

ďThere is a greater need than ever for the knowledge and expertise of agrometeorologists to assist farmers and the wider agricultural community and for more research and technology development in agrometeorology,Ē Professor Stone said.

ďNow more than ever, we need to better prepare farmers for extremes of climate but also enable them to become more resilient.Ē

The Commissionís key areas of focus for 2018 to 2022 will include drought research and management, issues related to global food security, weather and climate services for agriculture and risk management associated with extreme weather and climate patterns.

Professor Stone currently leads USQís Fundamental Climate Science Research program and is Director of the Universityís Centre for Applied Climate Sciences.

He is recognised as a global leader in climate science research and is also an expert team leader within the UN Commission for Climatology."

I read an interview with him in a northern QLD regional paper before it went behind a paywall. His forecast was rather grim for rain prospects. Anyway, everybody can make up their own minds about seasonal forecasts.
Cheers

Posted by: Nic_Bri

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/01/2019 13:13

I heard a rumble of thunder when leaving Mount Gravatt earlier. I am now at the RBH at Herston and stuck in my car due to a heavy shower...good problem to have though smile
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/01/2019 13:53

Originally Posted By: tsunami
Ohh lovely rain
4mm in last hour
What a pleasant suprise
BOM have up chances of rain
well that explains the 0.7mm I saw in the gauge this morning. I was wondering when that fell, thought I hadn't reset the gauge maybe...lol.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/01/2019 16:19

3.8mm at Wynnum North since 0900.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/01/2019 17:58

We could well break the ridge record at this rate.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/01/2019 20:42

Some lovely overcast and drizzly weather this morning at the Tweed.Could of had a couple of mm. So happy that rain could water my seedlings as you can smell the chlorine in the water.
Are the dams / water storage low/
--
I have been disappointed with ACCESS precipitation forecast in both position and intensity at times. It handles the bigger more obvious scenarios like troughing but has difficulty with weaker scenarios.
I noticed l was using the tab .. 7 day at 6hr intervals.
I have now selected 3 day at 3 hr intervals. I notice the precipitation map shows different results and in fact was more accurate today than the 7 day option.
I suppose the 3 day tab is a higher resolution?
Anyway .. I will try this 3 day option for awhile and see how she fairs.
and you need to zoom in to the state.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/01/2019 20:56

Yeah, first 3 days are the higher resolution ACCESS-R model and the remainder is the lower resolution ACCESS-G.
Posted by: weatherhobbiest

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/01/2019 21:10

3 mm of
rain here at Sunnybank Hills today. Our first rainfall of the month and year.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/01/2019 01:31

Very intense rain in this onshore cell and some good lightning and thunder. Anyone else getting this?
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/01/2019 01:48

Still going strong! Very powerful slow-moving storm here.

Stretton and Calamvale got 47 and 46 mm from this. I think there will be heavier falls recorded in Corinda, Pullenvale and Jindalee when the gauges update.
Posted by: whethertraveller

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/01/2019 06:53

I was surprised when I checked my rain gauge this morning I vaguely remember it teeming in the early hours of this morning 41mm all up from yesterday and early this morning. North east of Beenleigh No official BOM rain gauges near me. Logan Central would be the closest but readings there are always different to the rainfall here Pleased to hear others south of Brisbane received good falls also.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/01/2019 07:24

Very surprised to find we had 10.3mm fall here overnight as I didn't hear a thing (actually looked at the raingauge several times through half asleep eyes I was that surprised...lol), nice to read of some of those higher 40 - 50mm amounts falling elsewhere nearby.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/01/2019 08:17

Not a drop out here. Looks grim for any drops for the near future.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/01/2019 08:44

Official gauge here has 34 mm, nice unexpected drop. Started around 10.30 and went to sleep listening to it, noice.
DD
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/01/2019 08:47

And on another note, kids got me a weather station for xmas, nothin super flash, its a Digitech. It was affordable for them, now to work it out and set it up. Woohoo
DD
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/01/2019 08:50

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..4 JAN 2019 TIME..0745

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.1C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........63%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 18C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...E 8Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1016.5HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........6/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........6.4mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......29.4C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....21.9C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.1C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....20C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1014.4Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 32kph at 2334
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Showers and drizzle.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/01/2019 17:12

Endless ridging...
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/01/2019 17:16

7.5mm yesterday and overnight here, good enough to keep the grass going hopefully.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/01/2019 17:33

2spits with the dribble here yesterday.Feel like driving out of here and spending a week down south to get away from this confounded ridge.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/01/2019 18:24

EC till Jan 14 - still no sign of ridge breaking.
GFS extended till Jan 20 - no sign of ridge breaking.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/01/2019 21:43

No recordable rain here. I would not be surprised if this ends up being the hottest, driest January on record! I predict no measurable rain here for the entire month. Tress and large hedges and shrubs around our property are slowly dying off due to the years of drought.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/01/2019 22:12

Been thinking the same MichaelWEye2Sky. Hope we are both totally wrong.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/01/2019 22:35

Stranger things have happened Pete. Hope we get another anomaly soon, like what we had back in October.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/01/2019 08:32

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..54 JAN 2019 TIME..0730

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.6C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........64%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 19C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...E 15Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1016.6HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........25KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........6/8 cloud, haze.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......30.7C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....22.8C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....18C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1016.1Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 32kph at 1416
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... No significant weather.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/01/2019 22:16

Today is the 15th day of the dry spell here (hasn't rained since Dec 21st).

Poinciana along the main road into town showing off its brilliant red blooms (pic was taken in mid-December, but with the storms at the time I didn't get around to posting it)
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/01/2019 08:44

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..6 JAN 2019 TIME..0740

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.2C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........70%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 20C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...E 6Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1014.6HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........25KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........5/8 cloud, haze.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......30.9C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....24.4C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....20C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1014.0Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 29kph at 1028
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Haze.
Posted by: Warloq01

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/01/2019 08:48

When is the next southerly bust due to hit the coast? Starting to get over the constant 30 degree days. The ground is as dry as bones.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/01/2019 10:32

The dry is continuing, no worthwhile rain for a few weeks out here, surely it wont be a bone dry January?
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/01/2019 12:37

Smack on 350mm for the year on the west side of Toowoomba. That's 207mm less than last year and 290mm below the towns median rainfall. The now closed Westbrook site only recorded 2 drier years in 120 years of records (1918 & 1919 being the driest).

Largest fall for the year was only 27.5mm on 27 Feb.

I only had 10mm last January, this January is looking equally as bad. Fingers crossed for a good February and March
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/01/2019 14:27

Itís amazing to me that Warwick has been so hot and we have been so mild. Itís 36 today and thatís the hottest itís been here pretty much since the beginning of December. We bought an aircon 2 years ago specifically for Jan holidays as itís normal 45-46 degrees here (had a 49 on our temp gauge last year!) and just too hot to go outside. These holidays have been incredibly mild for us. (Jimbour)
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/01/2019 16:41

Some signals showing up on the latter end of runs from EC and GFS. Couple of weeks but..
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/01/2019 16:46

Originally Posted By: Steve O
Some signals showing up on the latter end of runs from EC and GFS. Couple of weeks but..

I canít see any decent prospects for any rain events in either model for that period at the moment....
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/01/2019 17:10

Do better to catch a plane down to Sydney if you want to see some typical summer rain or storms Stevo.
Years ago I remember fronts used to come all the way up here and stall over our region.Whats going on?
Posted by: KevD

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/01/2019 17:34

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Some signals showing up on the latter end of runs from EC and GFS. Couple of weeks but..

I canít see any decent prospects for any rain events in either model for that period at the moment....

Agree, but have fingers crossed the AAO keeps to the forecast (am aware it is notoriously hard to get right) and starts to drop into the negative. Its the only thing I can see right now that might start breaking up this Quidge pattern. If it does my hunch is that we could see some good rain events in a few weeks, but also increased risk of dangerous fire days down south:



Can't see anything else changing right now, so looking for any sort of trigger to stir things up...
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/01/2019 17:37

Around 200+ odd hours nothing too significant was just hoping it was just something. I'm flat out travelling an hour from home let alone travel to Sydney lol
Posted by: KevD

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/01/2019 17:41

Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Do better to catch a plane down to Sydney if you want to see some typical summer rain or storms Stevo.

Doing that tomorrow then heading into the GDR camping for a few days with family...could actually catch some good storms - if I do not sure if to post here or not. Kinda nice to see some stormage but doesn't help to know what others have got and we have not!
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/01/2019 17:47

I just dusted the camera off the other day so good luck Kev on getting some good shots,hoping things can get abit more exciting up in these parts. Have been getting into some macro stuff latly..might be waiting a while for some mesoscale here
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/01/2019 18:26

Had enuf of this dry crap, driving to Syd thurs & flying back sunday. I hope to get rained on somewhere along the way.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/01/2019 19:59

EC - no sign of ridge breaking up to the 16th.
GFS - no sign of ridge breaking until past the 22nd.

Are we gonna break some records here?
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/01/2019 20:17

What record? Its like this all the time..
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/01/2019 20:42

Thanks for posting that AAO graph KevD. re: link to east coast ridging.

I enjoy doing correlation studies . Non -statistical . Just basic.
I have taken a snap of our sub -polar region and noting again the westerly belt has no amplitude. ( no hills and valleys)
ok well one cut off low.
and is well contracted south.
Also noting we have had positive AAO since 8th NOV 2018 = 59 days


Just noting that this 'zoomed out' ACCESS G doesn't show our ridging up to 20 s today.
---------------====

I will take another snap when our AAO goes negative.

I am not sure how long the east coast ridging has been in place. Can anyone remember?

BTW. It should be noted that a SSW ( sudden stratospheric warming..for those that want to google that)
is under way and we have had some active volcanic activity of late.
The southern hemisphere is not immune to these events.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/01/2019 20:57

Originally Posted By: Steve O
What record? Its like this all the time..


Provided the models are right in predicting absolutely zilch until the 20th, then that'd mark about the month mark that a big swab of the state has failed to see any rainfall at all during the supposed 'wet' season. Basically, this chart should look identical then to how it looks now:

Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/01/2019 21:10

Apart from some rather unexciting onshore-flow shower activity in our region tomorrow (Monday) which probably won't amount to much for the majority of locations, and perhaps a bit of stuff on some days this week, it's still pretty slim pickings for as far as the eye can see at the moment.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/01/2019 21:12

I should have added, barring maybe NQ which will see some rain from the remnants of Penny.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/01/2019 21:32

A weak S/SE'ly change stalled on the Coffs Coast this afternoon/evening with the boundary fairly evident on the satellite (from WZ Radar)



The dry spell may possibly come to an end here overnight, with the chance of light showers before the winds shift back to the NE during tomorrow morning.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 07/01/2019 06:07

Awoken by heavy rain on the roof just now, arenít I lucky.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 07/01/2019 08:14

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..7 JAN 2019 TIME..0710

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......25.2C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........79%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...ENE 9Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1016.1HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........25KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........8/8 cloud, distant rain.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......31.2C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....23.3C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....20C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1014.3Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 39kph at 1103
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Haze, cloud thickened.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 07/01/2019 08:35

12mm here this morning at home.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 07/01/2019 09:09

Great post 'seabreeze' I just love that sort of stuff.
How far the southerly makes it up the coast.. How interesting to view that pictorially.
I believe you can see a line of cloud where the windstreams converge. It would be good to record the latitudes over time and compare them to various atmospheric parameters, like the SAM or whatever..
------
As our SH synoptic pattern appears to have stalled for awhile and still more to come. It has been interesting to see that places in OZ getting the same weather everyday because of the stalled surface synoptic pattern.
I think of the heat inland, the trough and storm line from Darwin to East gippy.
Sydney getting battered from storms nearly every day, our ridging weather..
----

Ground hog day
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 07/01/2019 18:44

Originally Posted By: BIG T
12mm here this morning at home.
must have been a North of the river thing...0.0mm in the gauge here
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/01/2019 08:34

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..8 JAN 2019 TIME..0730

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......23.3C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........86%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...ESE 13Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1014.7HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........25KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........7/8 cloud, showers past hour.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........1.4mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......31.6C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....22.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...22.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....20C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1014.7Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 36kph at 2353
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Haze, showers developed
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/01/2019 08:53

Quiet on the forums this morning apart from RWM's regular and meticulous reports. Rain to the north and rain to the south and nothing of value for us as far as can be seen. Still hoping against the harsh reality.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/01/2019 09:03

The harsh reality Pete is that we are best to turn our thoughts to something else to cheer us up.I don't know what's causing that High to bury itself in that spot for so long ( maybe it's cold SSTs in the Tasman ) but I will try and be positive and foresee that with these relentless trade winds out there East of us,warmer water from the eastern Equatorial Pacific might get dragged our way changing the state of Play for us
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/01/2019 09:06

Very overcast here with all the entrails of EX PENNY flowing over us . Quite thick actually
Oh yes l can see some embedded rain in that shear on the radar

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR501.loop.shtml#skip

Might get a few drops..
Anyway l am enjoying a break from the sun..Feels a lot milder today
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/01/2019 09:15

Very good idea Tweedstorm, but that thick middle-level cloud just going over us and not producing anything is very frustrating. Just hearing the odd drop of rain on the roof from that cloud, just like yesterday, about 10 of them think.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/01/2019 09:50

And yeah I agree Crikey, enjoying the overcast almost tropical sky on offer. Pleasant change
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/01/2019 13:25

Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
The harsh reality Pete is that we are best to turn our thoughts to something else to cheer us up.I don't know what's causing that High to bury itself in that spot for so long ( maybe it's cold SSTs in the Tasman ) but I will try and be positive and foresee that with these relentless trade winds out there East of us,warmer water from the eastern Equatorial Pacific might get dragged our way changing the state of Play for us


If I'm not mistaken, the high is in the right place for this time of year ? Seems a normal summer pattern to me except maybe the sst are a bit cooler than normal further south
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/01/2019 13:35

Yeah no doubting it's in the right spot Gleno just what's causing it to be shackled to the spot.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/01/2019 14:21

Possibly the axis of the ridge is in the perfect position to keep the onshore flow weak and the inland troughs and fronts away. Also maybe a stable upper pattern.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/01/2019 14:31






1st image above - MSLP anomalies averaged over last month where the "warmer" colours represent higher than normal pressures for this time of year while the cooler colours represent lower than normal pressures.

2nd image above - Height anomalies of the 500hpa pressure level with the same colour scheme.

You can see an area of higher than normal 500hpa heights over, and off SE Australia... coupled with higher than normal surface pressures in the same region.

BTW the 4-week EC ensemble outlook run twice a week still isn't currently showing high confidence of major prolonged changes to the overall rainfall anomalies in our region... if anything, a large proportion of its members currently suggest drier than normal conditions to spread across much of northeastern and central Australia from about mid-January but they're somewhat more undecided about our region (some are still going for continued dry anomalies here too but with more modest probabilities).
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/01/2019 16:18

Thanks for those images, Ken. Doesn't look too promising for a change. Large, but sparse drops falling again.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/01/2019 16:48

Zero recordable rain here today even though the radar looks pretty good.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/01/2019 17:54

Looking at the Brisbane radar pix last few days, it looks like our famous Qridge, and its upper equivalent ( think correct spelling ) has been holding back ex Penny outflow precipitation away from the coast and in a narrow band well to the west of Brisbrown.
Posted by: Belgarad

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/01/2019 18:30

I just thought I'd pop in to express my sadness of this years storm season for us in coastal SEQLD.

hehe oh well.

I'm jealous of the central coast.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/01/2019 18:49

Yep it's been a shocker!!!!! With a Capitol S. Enough to bring tears to a glass eye😢
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/01/2019 23:15

0.4mm in the 24hrs to 9am from a light morning shower. This brings an end to the dry spell here, which lasted for 16 days. For summer, that's a fairly significant period of time for no rain to fall here.

Occasions during or partly during Summer here since 1939 where there has been no rain fall for 16 days or more:

Dec 22nd 2018 to Jan 6th 2019 - 16 days
Dec 27th 2012 to Jan 12th 2013 - 17 days
Dec 24th 1993 to Jan 14th 1994 - 22 days
Jan 26th 1983 to Feb 11th 1983 - 17 days
Nov 19th 1957 to Dec 8th 1957 - 20 days
Jan 17th 1952 to Feb 11th 1952 - 26 days
Nov 28th 1951 to Dec 18th 1951 - 21 days
Feb 20th 1943 to Mar 17th 1943 - 26 days
Feb 7th 1940 to Feb 27th 1940 - 21 days

It happened twice during the summer of 1951/52!
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/01/2019 23:19

Originally Posted By: gleno71
If I'm not mistaken, the high is in the right place for this time of year ? Seems a normal summer pattern to me except maybe the sst are a bit cooler than normal further south


Unlike a typical 'elongated' ridge that you'd normally see through the Coral Sea during summer, this high sat further north between the NSW coast and NZ for two weeks up until a day or so ago. I like to call this the Tasman Sea ridge (as opposed to the Coral Sea ridge) because we are getting drier and more stable air from the SE and not warmer, more humid air from the ENE or NE. The surface pattern across the Tasman Sea does look to become more active again but the same problem remains and that is that this ridging continues to bulge northwards through the northern Tasman Sea and the pattern goes on and on and on. The other issue is there have been NO significant upper troughs to speak of across mainland AUS (not unusual for January but none?). There was a weak one which moved through last week which slightly increased showers (and helped shear Penny) but that's it. It's as if the uppers blew their load in November leaving us with a very stable upper-level pattern (more-so than usual) during summer.

Those are my thoughts anyway. Here is an image from a GFS run last week showing where our high sat for so long:

Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/01/2019 23:33

And this is the SST response from the high sitting over that region for so long:

Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/01/2019 23:40

I wonder if those warm SSTs will help fuel ECLs this winter?
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/01/2019 02:34

Originally Posted By: Mega
And this is the SST response from the high sitting over that region for so long:



those charts you posted and some of the other discussions on here re: why is the quidge so persistent now, got me thinking about something i read the other day....


Quote:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Australian_Current

The EAC experiences seasonally variations. It tends to be strongest in the summer, with an amplitude flow around 36.3 Sv. It is its weakest during the winter months flowing at a rate around 27.4 Sv.[6] Over the past 50Ė60 years the EAC has shifted. The south Tasman Sea has become warmer and saltier from 1944-2002. This has resulted in the current strengthening and extending southward. This shift in the EAC flow past Tasmania is controlled the Southern Hemisphere subtropical ocean circulation. This trend is thought to be caused by changes in wind patterns due to ozone depletion over Australia. There is a strong consensus with climate models that this trend will continue to intensify and accelerate over the next 100 years. The current is predicted to increase greater than 20%, thanks to the increase in South Pacific winds.


i'm just a novice, so i wouldn't have a clue. but it sounded interesting and i'm sure would impact the weather from here south.
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/01/2019 08:22

I know its frustrating, but i have seen this many times with a consistent dry south east wind coming from consistent Tasman highs.
My thoughts are that we can expect this to continue til March.
In a nutshell, very very frustrating weather and Boooooooring
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/01/2019 08:47

What would be frustrating after all this is a long season of bombing Tasman Sea Lows.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/01/2019 09:00

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..9 JAN 2019 TIME..0755

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.6C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........72%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...NE 18Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1013.3HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........20KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........6/8 cloud, haze.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.2mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......30.7C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....23.9C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.3C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....20C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1013.1Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 30kph at 1032
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Haze, distant showers.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/01/2019 09:14

And that cool water over the northern Coral Sea is not helping any possible TC development, along with a weakening of the monsoonal outflow from Asia.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/01/2019 09:51

Light drizzly showers here last night and again this morning, just enough to be a pain but at least it's cooler.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/01/2019 11:33

Some good solid showers here this morning.
Makes a change.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/01/2019 19:05

EC - ridge continues till the end of its run (19th)
GFS - trying to introduce a trough from the south around the 18th but largely favouring inland parts at this stage.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/01/2019 19:29

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Some good solid showers here this morning.
Makes a change.
can you send it this way next time please.....some dark skies today to get my hopes up is as good as it's gotten here of late, but not a drop has fallen sadly....gauge still been reading 0.0mm for a while now.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 10/01/2019 08:51

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..10 JAN 2019 TIME..0745

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.1C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........76%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...ENE 8Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1015.0HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........25KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........7/8 cloud, slight rain.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........Trace.

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......29.9C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....24.5C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...22.4C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....20C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1013.7Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 30kph at 1106
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Slight overnight and early morning rain, not enough to register
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 10/01/2019 20:41

1mm here last night. Another warm day at 32C, but nothing too extreme so far this month. Most of the heat remains out west, where it belongs.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 10/01/2019 20:44

Recent runs of the EC ensemble for Brisbane have been suggesting a general increase in max temps later next week as winds turn more northeasterly.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 10/01/2019 20:59

EC - ridge right through till the 19th. Another high that winds up taking a northerly path into the northern Tasman / southern Coral Sea. Bad.
GFS - still trying to introduce a trough on the 19th but only before being quickly being cleared away by a new ridge. Apart from said trough, other dynamics look very similar to EC.
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 10/01/2019 21:58

8 years since the Toowoomba and Lockyer Valley floods. I'm still haunted by the post I made on here during the storm. I knew what the creeks were like that morning in the upper Lockyer and I knew that there would be a wall of water coming down the range after the storm. I wish I rang the Grantham pub to warn them, hindsight is a wonderful thing though.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 01:28

Originally Posted By: Adam Ant
8 years since the Toowoomba and Lockyer Valley floods. I'm still haunted by the post I made on here during the storm. I knew what the creeks were like that morning in the upper Lockyer and I knew that there would be a wall of water coming down the range after the storm. I wish I rang the Grantham pub to warn them, hindsight is a wonderful thing though.


That was a week I'll never forget, especially the lead-up to and flooding of Brisbane. Also following these forums on the day of the Toowoomba/Lockyer Valley storm and flash flooding was one of the most eerie experiences I've ever had. I think this forum was probably the best and most important news source in any media that day. The posts on here were just miles ahead in predicting and reporting on the unfolding event, with reference to all the available weather data as well.

With our overall warm and dry weather of recent years it just seems almost impossible to imagine another extended spell of cool, overcast and very rainy weather like we had in the back-end of 2010 and Jan 2011. Brisbane didn't hit 30 that spring/summer until the second week of December. The ground was so wet in the months before Jan that your shoes would literally sink into the soil with water spurting out.

Interestingly, we've had a significant '1 in 100 year' rain event in SEQ every 2 years this decade:

Jan 2011 floods
Oswald 2013
May 2015 ECL (and also a visit from ex-TC Marcia)
Debbie 2017
2019?

Despite the many dry spells we've had more frequent visits from tropical systems and major rain events this decade than in the 80s, 90s and 00s.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 01:59

http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR663-brisbane/2011-01-08-15/2011-01-12-15

Here's the entire rain event as it unfolded. A few moments of note:

10/1/11 - 10am to 2:30 am (Brisbane Valley/Toowoomba storm)

Really interesting to see how this developed. This was actually a slow-moving storm, not convergence, rain trains or any other kind of usual rain event pattern. There had been a clearing in the morning allowing the sun to poke through and fire up two storms (1 over north Brisbane and 1 over the southern SC that converged over the Brisbane Valley). It spent 2 hours crawling through the Valley into the Ranges, which was unusual considering how much faster the rest of the rain in the event moved.

11/1/11 - 4 am - 2pm (rain train over the dams)

This was what really buggered Wivenhoe and ensured Brisbane would flood. An extra 200-300+ mm.

I remember that event that there were 3 times when some posters on here per-emptively called the event over. One was on 9/1 when the rain was focused entirely over SC and Caboolture, 10/1 when the clearing happened in the morning (before the storm developed) and then that night when all activity seemed to diminish to showers.

I never thought we'd see a 1974 flood again. Following the event, then spending hours walking around the local area which was under 13 metres of water and then the days of cleaning up houses was a surreal event.

I wonder if we will see anything like it again? The climatic patterns that caused the La Nina/IOD/high SSTs, massive moisture infeed to Australia, set-up rain events and then finally the culminating event in Jan 2011 were exceptional. We hadn't had anything even remotely like that in decades since the 70s. With the changing climate it seems more likely that we'll have more long warm, dry spells like we're seeing these days with occasional violent rain events. Those violent rain events probably wouldn't be enough to flood the Brisbane River to a major level, especially as dam management would be very careful now?
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 08:18

It will happen again , and again , we just donít know when.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 08:22

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..11 JAN 2019 TIME..0720

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.4C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........73%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...SE 12Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1018.3HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........2/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........Trace.

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......30.9C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....21.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...20.7C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....20C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1016.5Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..NE 34kph at 1530
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Slight early morning shower, not enough to register.
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 08:27

Great post NF. Yep totally agree with you about this forum on that day. AC was 100% spot on with his forecast that morning, that post along with a few others on here featured in the royal commission.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 09:20

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Those violent rain events probably wouldn't be enough to flood the Brisbane River to a major level, especially as dam management would be very careful now?


If the 2017 Ex TC Debbie 400 to 500 mm widespread rainfall that fell over the area of Nerang River, Logan-Albert River, and Northern NSW river basins had instead fallen 150 km NNW over the Brisbane River catchment, or 80 km NW over the Bremer and Lockyer catchments Brisbane River would have easily got over major flood level. The Brisbane River catchment flood study publicly released in early 2017 showed much bigger floods than 2011 are possible but have low probability.

As for dam management, it has not actually been proven yet the dams were mismanaged in 2011, that still remains speculation stirred up by the media through 2011. The flood commission of inquiry found that the dams achieved close to the best possible flood mitigation. The class action litigation underway since 2014 is due to have judgement handed down this year.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 11:05

If it's happened before, it will happen again. I wonder how SEQ would cope with a flood of 1890s or 1840s size?
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 11:18

According to the latest Drought Statement by The BOM apart from certain areas of Australia, the rainfall deficiencies have increased during December especially, over Southern QLD and Northern NSW. What story will the statement issued in Feb tell? Interesting reading the posts about that terrible time. I have learned since moving here how people up here are still affected by it.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 11:21





Incidentally, there was also remarkable flooding in parts of VIC in January (with 2 deaths) at almost exactly the same time as the Jan 2011 QLD floods but were overshadowed in the headlines by the latter.

One of my friends who lives in NW VIC didn't have power for over a week.

Anyway, above is the latest forecast probabilities of above/below normal precip averaged across next month from several models (calibrated to past comparisons between forecasts and observed outcomes). These are split into terciles (not in two lots of 50% for above and below normal).
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 12:17

I provided a 90 minute presentation during a 2011 ASWA meeting on the events surrounding the 2011 Brisbane Floods and the how dam operators responded to an incredibly dynamic set of conditions.

This covered the initial conditions leading up, where most of SE QLD had become supersaturated leading to 100% runoff and even small amounts of rainfall pushing rivers and creeks into major flood.

It went into the original forecasts for the higher rainfall to occur to the South of the catchments, and then the actual 1 in 2000 year rainfall rates for a period of 6 hours directly over the Wivenhoe catchment on 11th January.

Finally, the modeling that shows in the absence of the dams the 2011 flood levels at the city gauge would have been 7m instead of the 4.5m that they eventually peaked at.

We got very lucky in 2011. If that 6 hour rainfall rate on 11th January 2011 had extended for 2-3 more hours it would have added 1-2m to the peak at the city gauge and many more meters to the flood levels upstream.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 14:14

Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
According to the latest Drought Statement by The BOM apart from certain areas of Australia, the rainfall deficiencies have increased during December especially, over Southern QLD and Northern NSW. What story will the statement issued in Feb tell? Interesting reading the posts about that terrible time. I have learned since moving here how people up here are still affected by it.


GFS - trough pretty much gone. Ridge right through until the 25th.
EC - Ridge right through till the end of its outlook 20th.

Funny how the next high yet again slows to a crawl once hitting the western Tasman Sea. Is it just me, or is this pattern becoming more common and more prolonged over recent years' summers?
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 14:24

Edit time expired...

But to the older and more wiser users of this forum who grew up in QLD, can you remember extended dry periods like this occurring so frequently as they have over the last few years? I know it will break....eventually...but it seems like these periods are becoming, as I said, more common and more prolonged during our summers. I grew up in the '90s which was considered a dry period but I don't remember it being this bad.
Posted by: Stormy3

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 14:34

I was bought up in the 60's never seen it this dry around here.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 14:46

I am older but definitely no wiser. It is so frustrating to have to see this pattern constantly. I occasionally look at rainfall deciles for many months and years to try to figure it out. Although SE NSW seems to be doing well currently.
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 14:53

I found these forums that day, as anyone looking at the radar could see what was about to happen (though I couldn't have guessed just how awful it turned out to be) yet there were no warnings being issued.

Obviously the two events differed substantially, but given the inflow to Wivenhoe in 2011 was about 800,000 ML more than 1975, the dam clearly achieved a great deal. The only way to improve on it would be dams further up in the catchment.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 14:55

Originally Posted By: LDRcycles
I found these forums that day, as anyone looking at the radar could see what was about to happen (though I couldn't have guessed just how awful it turned out to be) yet there were no warnings being issued.

If I recall correctly, I think there was a warning in place at the time that mentioned the risk of flash flooding, but it didn't reflect the exceptional and historic nature of the flooding that was to evolve.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 15:58

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

If I recall correctly, I think there was a warning in place at the time that mentioned the risk of flash flooding, but it didn't reflect the exceptional and historic nature of the flooding that was to evolve.


And that is exactly the challenge with flash flooding, all that can be forecast is the risk, not the location, time and magnitude. Flash floods happen so quickly it is only possible to forewarn of a general risk in the area, and then reactively warn when levels seen to rise quickly at gauges, intense rain is seen, or reports come in.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 16:23

Won't have to worry about flash floods in this region for now.Dry as the desert around here.The frustration is seeing storms marching through the Sydney / south and central coast of NSW, day after day after day while we sit here and swelter under a boring partly cloudy sky with no end to it in sight.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 16:34





Indeed Flowin, it's hard to predict exactly how devastating a flood event will or won't be just by looking at the radar.

For example, there's been numerous times in the past (including in the years after 2011) when similar radar patterns have occurred in similar areas with near-stationary radar returns of similar magnitude that didn't result in the flooding as devastating as 2011.... and I've also personally seen similar big sharp rises in river height plots which also didn't result in flooding (both in QLD and other states) as devastating as Jan 2011. So while persistent precip over an area and big sudden rises in stream heights are two big factors that can't be ignored, only relying on those two things to predict devastating flooding would generate many false alarms every year and cause complacency. As already mentioned by others, one of the things that set 2011 apart from many other years was just how saturated the catchments were compared to the other years.

There's also many other factors involved that govern how easily a stream or river floods, how rapidly and when, including the nature of the stream itself, where the heavy rainfall occurs with respect to the part of the stream and what the rainfall rate is, and how saturated the catchments are.

Anyway the above maps show the longer term trends in the number of annual wet days (1mm/day or greater) and number of dry days in a row (max run of days with less than 1mm).
I'm not 100% sure if the "days/100yrs" part refers to some period used for a running average or not though but there is a noticeable trend nevertheless (tending to be more pronounced in the last few decades similar to various other changes).

The link is here for anyone interested:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=trend-maps
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 16:42

Does anyone have a link to a thread following the 2011 events? Would be fascinating to read about the events as they unfolded.
Posted by: Foehn Correspondent

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 18:02

Originally Posted By: CirrusFibratus
Does anyone have a link to a thread following the 2011 events? Would be fascinating to read about the events as they unfolded.


It started here and then on the last page (p300 and something it was split - links are there on the last page.)

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/924648/1
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 18:17

Originally Posted By: Foehn Correspondent
Originally Posted By: CirrusFibratus
Does anyone have a link to a thread following the 2011 events? Would be fascinating to read about the events as they unfolded.


It started here and then on the last page (p300 and something it was split - links are there on the last page.)

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/924648/1

Thank you Foehn.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 18:21

Watch the trajectory of the next high and the associated big swab of dry air it brings up from the south:

Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 18:44

Wow! Good time lapse Mega.Ive lived up here for 12 years now, originally from Sydney.This is the worst for me. To put it politely since living here I've really come to detest highs particularly the Squidge.Seen one really wet summer but can't remember what year that was.Noticed the weather up here is notorious for getting into ruts.W eeks of sunny weather, weeks of windy weather, weeks of showery weather but never weeks of stormy weather.Thats it in a nutshell but have seen some real good storms as well.You just don't hold your breath waiting for em
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 20:56

Some great posts guys. Very interesting data and stories.

To elaborate on my earlier point I think that the changing climate patterns in SEQ makes a major flood of the Brisbane River increasingly less likely.

It's clear that we're getting ever drier and hotter. We've had 9 of the 10 hottest recorded years in the last 10 years. We've also had 3 extremely warm winters in SEQ and nationally, yet these have all occurred in completely different climatic set-ups (e.g. ENSO, IOD, SAM). SEQ habitually gets repetitive long stretches of dry weather like we're seeing at the moment, with data suggesting increased high pressure/ridging. There's also a significant decrease in ECLs affecting SEQ since the 70s, less tropical cyclones overall and despite warming sea temperatures they aren't making it down to SEQ from the ocean.

So what does that all mean? We're getting hotter and drier. When we do get rain events they are much wetter and more powerful, whether they be frontal, storm or tropical, because the air and sea are warmer and so there's more energy and evaporation. Ken has discussed this before in more detail.

But that doesn't equal big river flooding events. It just means that we now need an exceptional exceptional event in exactly the right place over the Brisbane River catchment (to negate the dams) because catchments have to be primed and flooded in the same event.

Even without Wivenhoe I don't think Brisbane would have seen a major river flood event in the period between 1974 and 2011 because there just simply now are too few set-ups and systems to deliver it. I think the data and incredible flood events of the 1800s and 1900s up to the 70s are very much a product of the past and with the evolving climate (along with the presence of the dams) the chances are just so much less now.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 22:17

I think these pressure charts below show the state of the weather for you guys. Usually in December you would have dipping low pressure, but you guys had a ridge extending Inland. Sort of being surrounded by low pressure anomalies one to the South that was unusual.

Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/01/2019 23:08

Ashes can you provide a link for that? I'd like to check it out in the future.

Meanwhile in NSW they've had yet another day of severe storms:

Mt Gray (near Goulburn) recorded 38mm in 30 minutes from 1:25pm to 1:15pm.

Hail up to 4.5cm diameter was reported at Mt Victoria (Blue Mountains) about 1:50pm.

A gust of 107 km/h was recorded at Cobar Airport at 1:57pm.

A gust of 108 km/h was recorded at Cowra Airport at 4:14pm.

Hail of 4 cm diameter was reported at Yass in the early afternoon.

Hail up to golf ball size was reported at Holder and Duffy (in Canberra) around 3pm.

25mm of rain fell in 20 minutes at Weston Creek (Canberra) around 3pm.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/01/2019 00:09

NF below are the links. Anyways amazing turnaround for drought stricken NSW, storms hopefully others will see this kind of turnaround.
anomaly archive of pressure
Average MSLP according to annual and specific months.
Posted by: michaelmac50

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/01/2019 07:18

Kilcoy...
Yesterday...18 degrees @ 5am
Today...17 degrees @ 5am
Loving these cool starts...
Shame it will probably warm up again...soon.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/01/2019 08:47

Mega,

In regard to your question about dry periods. I grew up in Brisbane in the 50's and 60's. 1957-1962 and 1964-5 were very dry too in SEQ. Prayers were said in State Parliament in 1962 and 1964 to help break the drought.

There were a couple of short wet periods during those years, just like we see today, but overall very dry.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/01/2019 09:13

The tweed river flooded about 12 months ago and equalled the second highest flood event from 1974. The big floods here seem to be ex tropical cyclone remnants coupled with King tides.

The average mslp maps all show ridging in summer as a standard synoptic pattern.
select Dec, Jan ,Feb
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/climate_averages/mean-sealevel-pressure/index.jsp?period=jun

Maybe the unusual thing is the lack of breaks from low pressure fronts with a very zonal mid latitude.
-----
Great time lapse MEGA. Great find!! Love to see more of those. A picture says a thousand words
-------
Not everyone is getting dry weather from this stalled synoptic pattern.
The trough and stall line from the NW to the SE has just been incredible. Storms day after day
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/01/2019 09:17

As can be seen from this BoM data, Brisbane River floods were quite common from the time of settlement in the late 1830's till the end of the Century when the Federation Drought kicked in. After that period, Brisbane River floods have become less frequent.

This graph shows river heights at the City gauge near Petrie Bight and is only reliable up to the construction of the Wivenhoe Dam in the mid 70's after the 1974 flood. But even so the trend has been downwards since 1900.


Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/01/2019 09:48

How much of the long term trend is Somerset finished in the 50s, and Wivenhoe in the 70s? Although I don't think Somerset would have done much against the major floods prior to 1900.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/01/2019 11:31

I might add also that that BoM river height graph was published in 2009 before the 2011 flood.

Mike - the 1893 flood was mostly in the Stanley which is where the Somerset Dam is. 100 inches in 4 days upstream. The 1974 flood saw a lot of heavy rain in the Lockyer Valley, Warrill Creek and Bremer River catchments which would have bypassed Wivenhoe.

The other half of the graph I put up showed the Bremer River floods at Ipswich which are more consistent over time than major floods in the Brisbane/Stanley system, but the impact of the Bremer ALONE on the Port Office gauge in Brisbane is not that great.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/01/2019 16:09

Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Mega,

In regard to your question about dry periods. I grew up in Brisbane in the 50's and 60's. 1957-1962 and 1964-5 were very dry too in SEQ. Prayers were said in State Parliament in 1962 and 1964 to help break the drought.

There were a couple of short wet periods during those years, just like we see today, but overall very dry.


Thanks RWM, your insight on all things weather is always very much appreciated.

Originally Posted By: crikey
The tweed river flooded about 12 months ago and equalled the second highest flood event from 1974. The big floods here seem to be ex tropical cyclone remnants coupled with King tides.

The average mslp maps all show ridging in summer as a standard synoptic pattern.
select Dec, Jan ,Feb
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/climate_averages/mean-sealevel-pressure/index.jsp?period=jun

Maybe the unusual thing is the lack of breaks from low pressure fronts with a very zonal mid latitude.
-----
Great time lapse MEGA. Great find!! Love to see more of those. A picture says a thousand words
-------
Not everyone is getting dry weather from this stalled synoptic pattern.
The trough and stall line from the NW to the SE has just been incredible. Storms day after day


Thanks crikey. Yeah, it's true that southern/central NSW have had plenty of storms recently but it's not as if it's been a traditional widespread drought-breaking event. Areas who managed to find themselves under a storm I'm sure were very happy with the rain but they'll be needing a lot more. Outlook charts for the next week at least look very dry through those areas too so it's hard to see the monthly rainfall anomaly chart look any better than it does now.



Thankfully, it's not too bad around here locally as we had a reasonably wet December but I know that away from this area it's very dry. Hopefully this dry pattern breaks with a vengeance like it so often does!
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/01/2019 18:30

Yes MEGA the forecast for rain looks dismal this week for us and many many others
Here is WATL

----

When is then next La Nina due. what year was the last one we had.
Surely we are due for another , possibly commencing this autumn?
or is it going to be another neutral?

I do recall that before the La Nina commences... the season before has always been very dry and hot.
-----
Interesting to note the lowest rainfall anomaly is up the northern quadrant of OZ. The monsson hasn't been around much so far this season
Posted by: buster

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/01/2019 18:58

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: LDRcycles
I found these forums that day, as anyone looking at the radar could see what was about to happen (though I couldn't have guessed just how awful it turned out to be) yet there were no warnings being issued.

If I recall correctly, I think there was a warning in place at the time that mentioned the risk of flash flooding, but it didn't reflect the exceptional and historic nature of the flooding that was to evolve.


Hey Ken,

You raise an interesting point and one that I've wondered about myself in recent years. It brings me to a question but I'll get to that in a minute. Bear with me as I preamble (my wife says I should preamble far less). You may or may not know that I was part of the discussion on the forum as the day unfolded on 10.01.2011. My 15 minutes of fame after the flood was a time I could have done without. I, along with a few other folk in the weather community wrote a fair bit in the event thread that day and in the days that followed as well as in "the Washup" forum that followed (also worth tracking down for those interested). To be honest, much of what I wrote after the event was poorly informed and came from a situation of my own grief at not being able to change what happened and also because later on, my house at Rocklea where my kids lived was dunked. It was just bloody traumatic. I came to know the folk of Grantham pretty well after the event. My trauma was but a dot on the page compared to their black canvas.

Anyway,as you would be aware, one of the major criticisms directed at the BOM in the aftermath of the flood was that it was a warnable event but was not warned for. As you have rightly pointed out, after posting a general Severe weather warning for SEQ that included the risk of flash flooding earlier in the day, the BOM was silent about the event as it unfolded (except for a call to Emergency services in Toowoomba @ lunchtime as I recall). The Bureau boss at the time said, basically, that there was no template to issue a specific Flash Flood warning for the Lockyer Valley (or any other specific valley). No such thing existed. Eventually, under the pump because the disaster was all over our TV screens, the BOM created a template and did put out a specific warning about events in the Lockyer, but sadly it was too late to change anything. I often wonder what would be different if a similar set of circumstances arose again. So, my question is, does the Bureau now have the capacity in similar circumstances to easily issue a warning for flash flooding in a specific catchment?

I long ago came to terms with the fact that the tragedy at Grantham wasn't any one person or organisation's fault. It was just a truly exceptional, horrible weather event. The point you raise in a later post about the key to the unfolding of this event being how absolutely saturated the catchment was at the start of that fateful day is right on the money. But the folks of Grantham, justifiably I think, believe that there was a collective failure to warn and protect them by a lot of organisations. There was an awful lot of time between when that rain fell and when Grantham got washed away. Even us amateurs have had to come to terms with our own inaction on the day. I could have driven to Grantham myself and warned the whole town with an hour to spare if I'd trusted my gut. So please don't think that I'm trying to mount a BOM bashing campaign. Not at all. I remain an avid fan of the work of the folks at the BOM. Just hoping for better if we ever face similar again. And we will. I hope you can find my question in the middle of this blurb. For the moderators, today it is fine and dry here. Like most folks in most places in South Qld and only few in the NE Queensland, I'm hoping for good rain, but not too much. It's still only January.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/01/2019 23:34

I read somewhere that a similar inland flash flood in the Brisbane Valley occurred with the 1893 floods. That's almost 100+ years between events. I'm not surprised that BOM didn't really have a detailed system for that type of extreme event.
Posted by: Sillybanter

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/01/2019 08:28

I was in Toowoomba the day before the flood on our way to holidays at the coast. As I drove down the range and saw the level of flash flooding that had already occurred in Withcot in the days prior I said to my wife " I would not like to be here with what they have forecast to come". So there were some ominous signs on the ground at that time to anybody who had a knowledge of weather but to think anybody could every predict the scale of what was about to happen is the problem. Then if the warnings had been so dire would anybody have listened? We know they would now but thats with the benefit of hindsight.
I remember a story from South Australia's north east in maybe 97' some tropical moisture had lingered for days causing massive storms. After one of these storms a neighbour who live up the creek from another rang his neighbour and told him to get out of his house as there was a wall of water coming that was unprecedented. The house had never been in danger from the creek but on this particular event it was and the only thing that saved him was warning that it was coming from somebody who had seen it with his own eyes. My point being, storm warnings were in place, very high rainfall totals had been observed, but that was the one person that could have warned the guy that he would have listened to. Sometimes things just have to be seen to be believed.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/01/2019 08:48

Current forecast must be sponsored by Bunnings. Shouldíve seen the punters there yday buying hoses and sprinklers. Outlook is Groundhog Day.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/01/2019 08:57

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..13 JAN 2019 TIME..0750

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......27.2C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........67%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 20C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...SSE 4Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1017.2HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........3/8 cloud, increasing.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......31.4C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....19.5C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...17.9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....18C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1016.8Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 32kph at 1430
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Early morning fog to the west.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/01/2019 08:58

Goin to be a red hot dry week ahead.Thank God for AirCon.Should be some scary power bills for many of us.At least we don't have to use the hot water for our showers.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/01/2019 09:09

Don't have air con here. We pensioners can't afford to run it. Fans do very nicely.

Tank dry ( 90 mm rain needed to fill it ), lawn brown, possums being hand fed daily as their food sources drying out.
Posted by: Ahab

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/01/2019 09:20

Temperature is also not too bad. Mornings feel almost coolish due to clear sky. Just bone dry.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/01/2019 09:35

Yes make the most of the early morning pleasantness. It would be a sweatfest in these caravan Parks I notice some cranky looking individuals of a morning driving past a few of em in this area haha
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/01/2019 09:44

This is yet another good reminder that while we still typically have a distinct summer max in rainfall, it's not always the case and the notion that we have a wet season as distinct as the tropics is not a realistic one.
We have a fair bit more variability in rainfall distribution throughout the year in comparison.

buster: Interesting account, thanks for sharing. Rainfall rates that are likely to cause extreme flash flooding like that are specifically meant to be covered by the SEWS in severe weather warnings and severe thunderstorm warnings (technically at least, rainfall rates have to meet an average recurrence interval whose threshold depends on where the area is but saturation of catchment areas should also be considered).
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/01/2019 10:01

Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Goin to be a red hot dry week ahead.Thank God for AirCon.Should be some scary power bills for many of us.At least we don't have to use the hot water for our showers.


My air con packed it in a few days ago, getting someone out to have a look at it tomorrow {Monday ) Hate to think how much the repair bill will be let alone my next electricity bill. Been able to survive without it so far, have fans and I don't live far from the coast so get a nice breeze, and I have a pool. Don't think I could handle living in a house without air con west of the great divide though.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/01/2019 14:26

One thing I don't understand with this gridlocked groundhog scenario is why high pressure dominates out there in our East coast waters when the central pressure of these highs is quite low ( hovering around 1017hp). Shouldn't take much of a frontal system to move it on surely
Posted by: gberg

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/01/2019 15:22

For anyone looking for a temporary storm fix this is well worth a watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oagszCmJLpU
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/01/2019 17:04

Originally Posted By: gberg
For anyone looking for a temporary storm fix this is well worth a watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oagszCmJLpU


Good one gberg beautiful Time lapse photography.I quite often watch a storm clip on YouTube in times like this.Last one I saw was worth a look too if you can put up with this hayseed's sniffing you'll get a laugh I'm sure over his commentary.Check out "dangerous thunderstorms with extreme lightning" by Frankie Arnold
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/01/2019 18:10

TWEEDSTORM must of seen me the other day

quote: " I notice some cranky looking individuals of a morning driving past a few of em in this area haha"

its not so much the hot annexe TWEEDSTORM , its when you run out of coffee in the morning. argh!!
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/01/2019 20:03

Maybe they're Storm chasers cranky about the lack of storms haha but yeah I'm with you Crikey . . Like a dead duck without a strong morning Coffee
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/01/2019 21:23

BOM weather stations which haven't recorded any rainfall so far this year (with the date of the most recent rainfall in brackets):

Coffs Harbour (Dec 22)
Grafton Airport (Dec 22)
Grafton Ag RS (Dec 22)
Yamba (Dec 25)
Evans Head (Dec 23)
Casino (Dec 23)
Lismore (Dec 24)
Tabulam (Dec 23)
Tenterfield (Dec 22)
Applethorpe (Dec 25)
Stanthorpe (Dec 22)

It looks like next weekend may provide a chance of picking up some rainfall, though it may not be much at all. By that point, these places would have been without any recordable rainfall for 24-27 days. I'll have to see where this ranks for summer-time dry spells at the long-term stations.

26 days is the record here during the summer-time (since 1939). So we were very lucky to pick up 0.4mm here the other day in a rogue shower, otherwise if it had remained dry until Friday (which it almost certainly should) we would have set a new record here for the longest dry spell during summer.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/01/2019 07:55

Dalby hasnít had rain this year that I know of, Jimbour hasnít had rain anyway. 😢
Although Elders reckons Dalby had 0.7mm.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/01/2019 08:42

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..14 JAN 2019 TIME..0740

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......25.1C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........68%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 19C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...SSE 7Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1017.8HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........4/8 cloud, increasing.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......31.8C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....20.7C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...18.9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....19C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1016.7Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 34kph at 1353
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... No significant weather.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/01/2019 08:48

lets hope feb brings some rain , usually does in these parts. And three days into the wet , people will be complaining they're over it.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/01/2019 08:51

Re lack of rain. Checked closest official station to here with the longest record, namely Manly Railway Station. Records go back to 1898, and only last year 2018, saw the lowest January on record which was only 1.2mm. Even in the infamous 1902 drought with only 442mm for the year, Manly had 47mm for January.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/01/2019 19:20

Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
One thing I don't understand with this gridlocked groundhog scenario is why high pressure dominates out there in our East coast waters when the central pressure of these highs is quite low ( hovering around 1017hp). Shouldn't take much of a frontal system to move it on surely


It's a good question that I don't know the answer to either. I'm not sure if it requires a major trough to erode the ridge or whether the ridge would have to move on first for a trough to be able to dig in in the first place.

Anyway, the latest EC run looks absolutely dismal with a continuation of much the same. GFS is trying to break ridge down after the 24th but I wouldn't hold my breath considering it keeps putting it off and was originally trying to break it down around the 19th.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/01/2019 20:10

Boring weather script in January?
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/01/2019 20:13

ACCESS showing a precipitation signal west of the divide between 2-5pm on Wednesday 16th jan . The east coast ridging weakens momentarily
A NW to SE moisture stream from NW WA to SE Quadrant of OZ
on Friday the 18th jan
On Saturday, the ridging weakens briefly again and some surface troughing breaks through at about NSW midcoast. Tracks north as expanding high pressure from the south pushes the precipitation signal north into Saturday evening and sunday .
On the weekend this is accompanied by a tropical dip in isobars near our region. There is a NE infeed so you would think some storms..
for added interest an upper trough on Saturday late arvo

Haven't seen the High pressure pushing north for quite some time
( mind you keep in mind that is t+126hrs)
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/01/2019 21:55

Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Re lack of rain. Checked closest official station to here with the longest record, namely Manly Railway Station. Records go back to 1898, and only last year 2018, saw the lowest January on record which was only 1.2mm. Even in the infamous 1902 drought with only 442mm for the year, Manly had 47mm for January.


That's a very telling stat, imo, as Manly is right near the coast and would normally at least see onshore showers in a E or SE airstream. I guess that can't happen when our highs keep weakening and bubbling north leaving us under a much more shallow and drier airflow. Two Januaries in a row though, it's a very telling stat of what some of us have been describing the majority of the last few summers through SEQ. The cause? No bloody idea.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/01/2019 07:22

I think January is pretty marginal for E/SE showers. Sunshine Coast does significantly better than Manly as far as I know, something to do with the islands or the bay. Don't expect much SE shower activity in January up here, and rainfall stats show that Brisbane has a peak in rainfall in January, but SS coast goes up in Feb/Mar due to the SE shower activity I suspect.

I've been trying to download rainfall data from BOM but it just hangs after selecting station, rainfall and daily data. Anyone else able to download data there?
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/01/2019 07:38

Woken up this morning by the storm bird of all things ( Eastern Koel )
Could they know something we don't?
Or maybe it was brought up here from South coast of NSW somehow or its lost its way
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/01/2019 07:42

I guess my point was that you'd normally at least see some coastal showers even under a typical January ridge as highs retreat south but in recent years there's even been a lack of those as well, my guess because highs seem to keep parking themselves further north instead of progressing east.
Posted by: EddyG

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/01/2019 08:39

Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Woken up this morning by the storm bird of all things ( Eastern Koel )
Could they know something we don't?
Or maybe it was brought up here from South coast of NSW somehow or its lost its way


I haven't heard of one in a few weeks around here, which we normally hear them right through to March.
A few Black Cockies have been sighted in the last few days.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/01/2019 08:43

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I think January is pretty marginal for E/SE showers. Sunshine Coast does significantly better than Manly as far as I know, something to do with the islands or the bay. Don't expect much SE shower activity in January up here, and rainfall stats show that Brisbane has a peak in rainfall in January, but SS coast goes up in Feb/Mar due to the SE shower activity I suspect.

I've been trying to download rainfall data from BOM but it just hangs after selecting station, rainfall and daily data. Anyone else able to download data there?


I have had no issues with this.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/01/2019 08:44

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..15 JAN 2019 TIME..0740

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......24.2C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........78%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 20C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...SSW 4Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1017.1HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........25KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........Trace.

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......31.4C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....21.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...20.9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....19C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1016.4Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..SE 34kph at 1132
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Early morning drizz
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/01/2019 09:19

The relentless stagnation in any change of weather goes on. At least we have been getting a few oktas of cloudiness at some periods of the day to limit heating to some degree. I only just discovered the term oktas, by chance, on this WMO observations website for cloudiness and rain.
https://worldweather.wmo.int/cloud/c3/index.html
Apparently one okta is one eigth of the sky, eight oktas is practically full cloud cover.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/01/2019 09:21





Originally Posted By: Flowin
The relentless stagnation in any change of weather goes on. At least we have been getting a few oktas of cloudiness at some periods of the day to limit heating to some degree. I only just discovered the term oktas, by chance, on this WMO observations website for cloudiness and rain.
https://worldweather.wmo.int/cloud/c3/index.html
Apparently one okta is one eigth of the sky, eight oktas is practically full cloud cover.


Oktas was also been the international standard for describing cloud amounts in aviation weather reports and forecasts (but is now described as few, scattered, broken, and overcast) for airports around the world (as well as manual cooperative observations) for many decades as well.

Above is an extract from the Bureau's latest State of the Climate report showing significantly lower rainfall across much of southern Australia during the warmer months of the year in recent decades - all the details including timelines over which this trend occurred are here: http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/australias-changing-climate.shtml
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/01/2019 09:33

Ran out of edit time again (is this ever going to be fixed despite numerous and constant complaints about it from users over the years?) - I meant to say during the COOLER months of the year in my above post. The corresponding map for the warmer months of the year are in that link I provided.
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/01/2019 09:57

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
is this ever going to be fixed


hopefully, looks like an upgrade is in the works.

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...e_D#Post1482816

Originally Posted By: Tracers
I guess that explains why it suddenly went so slow and the extreme rash of new signups that were strange and all the cyrillic customer feedback we got.

I'm told the new site will conserve the forums as is so we don't loose any history.
_________________________
Working hard at Wz head office.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/01/2019 10:05

Well. I would be very happy if all of my posts over 6 months old would get obliterated from history. Went for a drive to Beachmere on Sunday to pick my Mum up. The Lockyer Valley and parts of the Brisbane valley are so dry. From Kilcoy to Caboolture it was so green; amazing contrast.
Cheers
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/01/2019 15:50

Re my earlier post about nearby Manly Railway Station rain. Last year was the lowest ever on 1.2mm, so far this month they have had 4.8mm. Average is 139mm. Never before have there been 2 consecutive years below 10mm ( back to 1898 ). But half the month to go so we might get lucky..
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/01/2019 08:19

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..16 JAN 2019 TIME..0715

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.4C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........64%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 19C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...NNE 5kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1014.7Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........35KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......31.9C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....21.1C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...18.7C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....19C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1015.0Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..NE 33kph at 1412
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... No signficant weather.
Posted by: Golden State

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/01/2019 12:39


Are these bom 'seasonal outlooks' just a rehash of an area's average for time period listed or is it a genuine snapshot of what is likely to occur factoring in the current climate influences ect ?

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/total/75/seasonal/0
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/01/2019 12:40

Originally Posted By: Golden State

Are these bom 'seasonal outlooks' just a rehash of an area's average for time period listed or is it a genuine snapshot of what is likely to occur factoring in the current climate influences ect ?

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/total/75/seasonal/0

They use the Bureau's latest seasonal outlook for rainfall (which in turn is the output from the new'ish ACCESS-S seasonal forecast model).

But before looking at the seasonal outlook maps, I'd strongly encourage people to look at the past accuracy of each outlook because it varies depending on area and time of year - the link is here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/skill/seasonal/0
Posted by: PlumbBob

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/01/2019 18:02

Looks to be some interesting times not too far away ? ? ?
I know it is a week away, but to have the following week of instability is interesting enough for this duck - & 7 days in a row surely accounts for something. One could quite likely assume some change about to happen ?
Maybe worth a dig around for those of you guru's -or- just wait till time passes for more accuracy, but on the same token, where ever and how ever it may eventuate, it would be quite nice for many... Touch wood blush

Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/01/2019 18:32

EC - ridge right through till 26th.
GFS - ridge right through till 30th.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/01/2019 18:36

Give us something for Australia day please..
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/01/2019 19:20

Looking very grim, soil bone dry, soon need to buy water to keep fruit trees & plants alive. This constant heat & no precip really stressing out plants. Looks like a 2mm January.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/01/2019 19:36

Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
One thing I don't understand with this gridlocked groundhog scenario is why high pressure dominates out there in our East coast waters when the central pressure of these highs is quite low ( hovering around 1017hp). Shouldn't take much of a frontal system to move it on surely


It's a good question that I don't know the answer to either. I'm not sure if it requires a major trough to erode the ridge or whether the ridge would have to move on first for a trough to be able to dig in in the first place.

Anyway, the latest EC run looks absolutely dismal with a continuation of much the same. GFS is trying to break ridge down after the 24th but I wouldn't hold my breath considering it keeps putting it off and was originally trying to break it down around the 19th.


A lot of Australia lies under the subtropical high pressure belt that circles these latitudes (due to the sinking air on the polar side of the Hadley Cell) around each hemisphere which predisposes high pressure systems to form more easily and persist for longer in much of these types of latitudes. It also occurs in the northern hemisphere to some extent but the huge landmasses and big mountain barriers tend to disrupt this pattern to a greater extent.

But I suspect that the lower pressures (compared to say those over Tasman Sea waters) over much of inland Australia caused by the intense summer landmass heating have also been helping these highs to be more persistent to their east, despite the Tasman Sea waters being warmer than normal.

I also suspect the jetstream and hemispheric longwave patterns have been another major contributor in encouraging the persistent high pressure in the Tasman Sea.
Of course all these are interconnected to at least some degree one way or the other.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/01/2019 19:41

Bordering on the ridiculous this weather pattern.Just have to grit our teeth, keep a stiff upper lip and carry on regardless. Gives us an insight into what it's like living in the Sahara desert
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/01/2019 19:46

Thanks also for your perspectives on that previous question of mine Mega an Ken. Interesting posts.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/01/2019 19:53

While we sit under the relentless ridge. Many parts of Australia have been sitting under a relentless tropical dip in isobars.
Here is a snap of 16th jan (today) and the usual diurnal max uprising.
Noticing the storm band west of the divide once again as ACCESSr suggested

source weatherzone
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/01/2019 20:05

So far this summer heat wise to me it hasn't seemed to bad apart from a few days obviously further west away from a seabreeze tells another story. I know everyone's definition of hot or cold is different. Its most certainly very stable conditions with not much going on upstairs in our region but inland NSW would be getting something atleast but not sure about widespread rain. The light NE'ly winds have been not too bad imo even the himidity has not been there, its warm but it's not unbearable even the odd cumulas onshore winds, but clearly there's no triggers no upper level support just ridge. I'm not too surprised by the boringness seems to happen through January pretty regularly with the odd exception but really its not a big window. Think it will be awhilw for precip but it's hard to really give any sort of hope as it just seems like this is the pattern for now. Some places will get rain while others places stay relentlessly dry.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/01/2019 21:51

Originally Posted By: Steve O
So far this summer heat wise to me it hasn't seemed to bad apart from a few days obviously further west away from a seabreeze tells another story. I know everyone's definition of hot or cold is different. Its most certainly very stable conditions with not much going on upstairs in our region but inland NSW would be getting something atleast but not sure about widespread rain. The light NE'ly winds have been not too bad imo even the himidity has not been there, its warm but it's not unbearable even the odd cumulas onshore winds, but clearly there's no triggers no upper level support just ridge. I'm not too surprised by the boringness seems to happen through January pretty regularly with the odd exception but really its not a big window. Think it will be awhilw for precip but it's hard to really give any sort of hope as it just seems like this is the pattern for now. Some places will get rain while others places stay relentlessly dry.
as someone that works outdoors in the sun each day, the Thursday and Friday before Xmas was pretty hot,... this week hasnít been a lot of fun to work in either, whilst not overly hot heat wise, my shirt has been saturated from sweating so much most days. I havenít looked to see what humidity levels have been, but itís definitely not that enjoyable to work in. Gotta say though, night time temps this Summer havenít been that bad though.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/01/2019 21:57

After moving from nz. I rated the shift 5.0c differece from nz to brisbane.
I then moved to townsville and rate that as the same. Another 5.0c from bris to townsville. It is hot there. Deference is it does not cool off here at night like brisbane does. Yes its hot here but there is still some coolness in the air
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/01/2019 22:00

It's warm but go north for a bit then brisbane is not that bad
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/01/2019 22:57

The weather has been boring, but boringly beautiful. Without that ridge we'd have been suffering a lot more heat with the rest of Australia.

Meanwhile 06z GFS is going for the mother of all scenarios to break this dry spell. Cyclone forms in the GOC mid next week. Drops the monsoon trough across all of eastern QLD and then does an Oswald exiting right out through SEQ as a sub-990 low. It doesn't get far before the ridge sends it back toward the coast causing a huge convergence dump over NE NSW. Stupid GFS teasing us with stupid scenarios. Have to laugh at its attempt to make the ridge useful for something haha.

Still looks like we're going to get some sort of weather next week though.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/01/2019 23:02

Originally Posted By: tsunami
It's warm but go north for a bit then brisbane is not that bad
bayside Brisbane is usually about 3 or 4 degrees cooler and feels better with the seabreeze over living in the Western suburbs of Brisbane....I always enjoy the bayside jobs we do purely due to the noticeable difference in the temps and seabreeze there.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/01/2019 23:22

I get 5 weeks holidays every Dec and Jan. Usually, at least 2 of those weeks are so hot day and night you canít sleep and you canít work outside. We hit over 49 here one day last year. The last two days are our first 2 days over 40 these holidays yet there is still a nice cool breeze at night. Iíve havenít known a summer this mild since Iíve lived out this way (Dalby-Jimbour), at least 14 years. Yes, we had some hot days in Nov but that was the warmest weíve had so far. In saying that, weíve also had a lot less rain and storms. Guess it goes hand in hand.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 08:16

GFS continues to play with a strong monsoon surge late in its two week forecast period. Latest run has a big monsoon low over the middle of Qld potentially giving SEQ a moist and unstable NE flow. Modoki typically results in the monsoon starting late and ending early, but being stronger than normal. Whether that would produce anything for SEQ is questionable, but the GFS extended runs suggest the situation is worth keeping an eye on.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 08:39

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..17 JAN 2019 TIME..0735

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.1C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........68%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 19C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...NE 11Kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1015.8Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......31.7C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....23.8C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....19C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1013.4Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 37kph at 1417
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... No signficant weather.
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 09:01

We have been saved this summer so far by the persistent high in the tasman, as it is helping Brisbane have a very normal summer, virtually on average. The only thing missing is the rain. But i would prefer this weather than a relentless heatwave, but because of the high, we are being spared. I expected this type of summer this year and i think it will continue til march at least. I think a secret el nino has been in play for many months now, even though they want the atmosphere and ocean to couple, we are actually getting el nino conditions now. You watch when the declare an el nino the rain will come. I think there is definitely a delay on weather organizations calling an el nino due to some criteria that i think needs to be adjusted. So my thoughts are that we have been experiencing a classic el nino on the ground for many months now, and that the criteria should be updated as you don't need coupling for the effects to start being felt. My 10 cents. Enjoy the dry - its gonna continue.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 09:04

Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
We have been saved this summer so far by the persistent high in the tasman, as it is helping Brisbane have a very normal summer, virtually on average. The only thing missing is the rain. But i would prefer this weather than a relentless heatwave, but because of the high, we are being spared. I expected this type of summer this year and i think it will continue til march at least. I think a secret el nino has been in play for many months now, even though they want the atmosphere and ocean to couple, we are actually getting el nino conditions now. You watch when the declare an el nino the rain will come. I think there is definitely a delay on weather organizations calling an el nino due to some criteria that i think needs to be adjusted. So my thoughts are that we have been experiencing a classic el nino on the ground for many months now, and that the criteria should be updated as you don't need coupling for the effects to start being felt. My 10 cents. Enjoy the dry - its gonna continue.

The coupling is critical to the rainfall effects on us because if the atmosphere isnít coupling properly with the ocean, we donít get any effects of El NiŮo on our rainfall. Itís the atmosphere which ultimately gives us our rainfall, not the ocean.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 10:36

While there are no significant el nino like features of the atmosphere in the central and eastern Pacific (that I can tell), there are clear and persistent el nino like changes in the western pacific. El nino like pattern in western Pacific = el nino like rainfall in Australia.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 10:41

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
While there are no significant el nino like features of the atmosphere in the central and eastern Pacific (that I can tell), there are clear and persistent el nino like changes in the western pacific. El nino like pattern in western Pacific = el nino like rainfall in Australia.


El Ninoís by their very definition revolve around what the waters in the eastern and/or central Pacific are doing (compared to the western Pacific) together with any accompanying atmospheric effects so whatever the waters in the western Pacific are doing, donít indicate the presence of an El NiŮo-like signal on their own.
Itís quite conceivable that the SST patterns in the western Pacific could be due to another influence or variations on a more regional scale.

Latest ENSO wrap-up here for anyone who hasnít seen it already (also makes mention of the MJOís temporary influence): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 11:12

This year's situation:



Warm pool through most of the Pacific, with persistent westerly anomalies triggered off the western edge.

Classic el nino:

Warm pool further east, and persistent westerly anomalies triggered further east.


In both cases the warm water drives the westerlies, and the westerlies drive the warm water. Therefore coupled. This year the warm water and westerlies are further west. Which makes the impact on Australia rainfall worse in my opinion.

Modoki el nino is defined as warmest waters near the dateline. Currently the warmest waters are near the dateline.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 11:38

Ok
So i was of the opinion that warm sea temps ment more rain
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 11:46

Originally Posted By: tsunami
Ok
So i was of the opinion that warm sea temps ment more rain

Nothing's ever quite as simple as that in reality. While it's true that warm waters can add much more moisture to the air above it and enhance rainfall in adjacent lands, it's not always the case and it also depends a lot on how they interact with synoptic systems at the surface and upper levels as well as broader circulations and time of year. As an example, there's been many cases in recent years where despite much warmer than normal waters off the east coast, drier than normal conditions have still resulted.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 12:02





Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
This year's situation:

Warm pool through most of the Pacific, with persistent westerly anomalies triggered off the western edge.

Classic el nino:

Warm pool further east, and persistent westerly anomalies triggered further east.

In both cases the warm water drives the westerlies, and the westerlies drive the warm water. Therefore coupled. This year the warm water and westerlies are further west. Which makes the impact on Australia rainfall worse in my opinion.

Modoki el nino is defined as warmest waters near the dateline. Currently the warmest waters are near the dateline.


If you look at the SST anomalies Hovmoller plot in the first diagram, while some of the warmest waters have been near the dateline, the very warm waters have also been distributed across a broad range of longitudes along the equator right out to the eastern Pacific where there's even another peak in SST anomalies.

In contrast, Modoki El-Nino's have a fairly distinct concentration of those warm waters around the central Pacific with comparatively cool(er) waters either side (in the Western and Eastern Pacific) as per the diagram above.

Other oscillations such as the longer timescale PDO as well as the more recently-discovered Ningaloo Nina which features cool SST anomalies off the west coast of Australia (and for which some recent research suggests may develop independently of ENSO phase) may also be contributing a role in affecting things like southern Australian rainfall so far this month or disturbing longwave patterns.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 12:02

I read somewhere that El Nino starts having an impact before it forms.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 12:09

Ken,

same page on modoki also has an index. The graph is not updated but the data is, and the latest monthly index value is Oct, and latest weekly first week Dec, both a bit above 0.5, and have been for a few months. Threshold from first paper on reference list for a modoki event is just a bit below 0.3.

It ties into triggering shifts in convection, which is triggered by water over 28C. Water near dateline is currently above 28C, so warm anomalies there are driving increases in convection, as reflected in cloudiness data. Water further east while anomalously warm is still nowhere near 28C, so is pretty much irrelevant. Although warmer water to the north is driving increased convection to north of equator in NE Pacific.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 12:11

Interesting discussion. There is a reasonable(but not definite) conclusion that there is not going to be any significant rain for the rest of the month. It appears to me(whether right or wrong) the most severe rainfall deficiencies seem to be developing along the QLD/NSW border and at varying distances away from it. If no rain occurs there is going to be a lot of bright red on the rainfall deciles for January and the three months from November to January.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 12:22

Also, that comment by Chris. I am finally going to ask this question about the impacts of El Nino. I have read lots of comments on the forums and I suppose part of the answer is that every El Nino is different, but the 1982-83 hit back brutally in February before the big rains came and the 1997-8 one did the same in March 1998, then it broke.
Cheers
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 12:43

GFS 18z extended Now has the low drifting down the coast to Mackay and then moving out to sea but close enough to possibly make things a little windy. GFS seems to be pretty keen on this southward moving low but this far out not sure whether it wants it at Quilpie or Lord Howe Island.....
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 12:56

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Ken,

same page on modoki also has an index. The graph is not updated but the data is, and the latest monthly index value is Oct, and latest weekly first week Dec, both a bit above 0.5, and have been for a few months. Threshold from first paper on reference list for a modoki event is just a bit below 0.3.

It ties into triggering shifts in convection, which is triggered by water over 28C. Water near dateline is currently above 28C, so warm anomalies there are driving increases in convection, as reflected in cloudiness data. Water further east while anomalously warm is still nowhere near 28C, so is pretty much irrelevant. Although warmer water to the north is driving increased convection to north of equator in NE Pacific.


I can't see where that first paper is that you mentioned but I don't think the weekly and monthly values on that site have been standardised? There's a fair bit of research in recent years to suggest that standardising the EMI to come up with an IEMI has significantly improved the ability of the index to distinguish some past Modoki events that were previously not captured by the EMI. In the IEMI, the threshold is 0.7 sd's as a result. In the EMI on the JAMSTEC website, the weekly and monthly index values appear to be calculated using equal coefficients of 0.5 for both the western and eastern Pacific regions.

For example:

" Further, an improved El Niėno Modoki index (IEMI) was introduced in the current paper to better represent the El Niėno Modoki that is captured by the second leading EOFmode of monthly tropical Paci?c sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). The IEMI is an improvementof the El Niėno Modoki index (EMI) through adjustments made to the inappropriate weight coe?cients ofthe three boxes of EMI. The IEMI therefore overcomes the EMIís inability to monitor the two historical ElNiėno Modoki events, as well as avoids the possible risk (present in the EMI) of excluding the interference ofthe El Niėno signal. The realistic and potential advantages of the IEMI are clear. "
https://www.researchgate.net/publication...no_Modoki_index

https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2016/03/04/is-the-201516-el-nino-an-el-nino-modoki/

This would also probably be consistent with the fact that if you look at the SST anomaly animations, it's virtually impossible to pick out a distinct concentration of warm anomalies in the central Pacific and significantly cooler waters near the equator/lower latitudes of the tropics in the more recent months, which is the defining characteristic of a Modoki:
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim.html

Don't get me wrong, indices are great in all sorts of things but they should also be considered in the context of the overall picture to get a more realistic impression of what's going on.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 15:56

The difference between equal coefficients as described by Ashok et al (sorry it was 2nd paper on the modoki site's list not first), and the improved index coefficients is 0.525 vs 0.509, vs a threshold of 0.378 (not the just below 0.3 I quoted from memory).

Note that all research papers I've seen consistently describe 2002/2003 as a modoki year. Comparing SSTs this year suggests an overall better match to the modoki pattern than 2002. For instance look at mid Dec 2002 where the Pacific is clearly warmer in the east than middle.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 17:14











Mike: That SST anomaly pattern for mid Dec 2002 wasn't representative of the whole DJF period though (assuming that's the period you're referring to) - if you have a look at what happened during the 2nd half of that period, you'll notice a distinct Modoki pattern emerge where the warmest waters clearly become concentrated around the central Pacific with much cooler waters to the west and east.

Above are some images from that event compared to now (when I say "now", the image is still a snapshot in time but even if you look at the animation I posted earlier, I can't see any real distinct concentration of warm waters in the central Pacific with significantly cooler waters either side for most of the time).

I've marked where I can see the warmest near-equatorial waters with red boxes. The current/recent pattern doesn't resemble the 2002/2003 event to me at all to be honest (and the 2002/2003 event also featured a much more prominent warm tongue of waters extending across the eastern and central Pacific than currently is the case before the warmer waters became concentrated in the central Pacific).
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 18:04

More garbage from EC this afternoon. Just one gigantic ridge right through till the end of the month.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 18:15

And the current SST pattern is not representative of what has happened this year.



A warm pool has clearly persisted in the west near the dateline, as marked by the red box. Twice warming started in the east as marked by small red boxes, and tried to become the dominant area of warm water. Both times failed. Perhaps its third time lucky, but there may be a cool kelvin wave heading towards the east, so I think this time will fail as well.

p.s. data truncated in Dec due to US govt shutdown.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 18:33

Originally Posted By: Mega
More garbage from EC this afternoon. Just one gigantic ridge right through till the end of the month.


RWM's line recently that the ridge MIGHT slowly break down by the end of 2019 might not have been a light hearted joke . This ridge is no joke alright! Thinking of even driving down to the northern tablelands of NSW somehow for an overnight stay with the missus next week for a reprieve and maybe even see a cloud that could produce a shower or storm.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 18:35

Somewhere not somehow
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 18:41

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
And the current SST pattern is not representative of what has happened this year.

A warm pool has clearly persisted in the west near the dateline, as marked by the red box. Twice warming started in the east as marked by small red boxes, and tried to become the dominant area of warm water. Both times failed. Perhaps its third time lucky, but there may be a cool kelvin wave heading towards the east, so I think this time will fail as well.

p.s. data truncated in Dec due to US govt shutdown.



The Hovmoller plot you posted also shows very warm anomalies in the eastern Pacific sustained all the way from October through til when the plot ends though? (not to mention warm anomalies distributed across the near-equatorial belt albeit with two nodes towards the end of that period).

And that looks pretty consistent with the SST anomalies animation over the last 6 months which also shows that the central Pacific SST anomalies havenít been that much warmer than the east or west:
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim.html

If they did, Iíd be more inclined to say that a Modoki event is having more of an effect on our rainfall patterns in our region so far this summer than many other factors.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 20:44

Usually when we have temps. this warm on the Downs, we have a westerly component to the wind. We have had an easterly component to the wind throughout this heat event. Warmest easterly wind I have felt in 10 years out here.
Yes, it is hot, but so far nothing too extreme as in years past. February can be a brutal month out here as proven in years past, with many days in the 40ís.
hope next month is tamer.
At this point, I would just like to see a nice cooler SE change move in. Is that too much to ask for? Any chance of this happening when the next big high pushes in from the Bight?
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 20:50

GFS 8-14 days out now shows little rain for SE QLD, as opposed to the past couple of days, GFS over the same time period showed some colour.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 21:18

The warm anomalies in the east are clearly less extensive and persistent than the warm anomalies near the dateline.

The advantage of an index is it puts what might otherwise be subjective opinions on how well the temp pattern matches the standard modoki pattern onto an objective and scientific basis. Modoki index in 2002 peaked at 0.63 compared to peak this event so far of 0.56. Threshold for modoki event is 0.38.

Atmospheric impact:



Increased convection east of PNG, decreased convection north of Australia and over Indonesia. Westerly anomalies forced by this change in convection have been moving moisture away from Australia and into the Pacific. This means less Rosby waves transmitting instability SE onto Australia.

Compare to a couple recent modoki events.







Weaker. But there.
Posted by: Kino

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 21:20

There is no modoki. Stop spreading fake news.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 21:37

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
The advantage of an index is it puts what might otherwise be subjective opinions on how well the temp pattern matches the standard modoki pattern onto an objective and scientific basis.

Thereís no doubt whatsoever that an index is really handy in terms of removing subjectivity but as mentioned in my previous post, itís also vital to consider the context of the bigger picture itís used in.
For example, CAPE is handy for estimating instability but as we all know, thereís also many instances where something like high surface-based CAPE values donít reflect the true instability of the atmosphere due to the assumption that all parcels are rising from the surface and a big cap is preventing storms from forming, high positive SOI values that may only be high because of local weather systems rather than a true La NiŮa phase that would otherwise produce rainy cool weather, or very warm NI—O 3 and 3.4 SST anomalies that donít reflect a full blown El NiŮo because the atmosphere isnít coupling with the ocean.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 22:03

I've looked to see how the current dry spell compares to previous ones during the summer-time along the NSW north coast.
It looks like extended dry spells during the summer were more common before the mid 1950s and have been pretty much absent since then until 2018. If this is a cyclical pattern, I would be expecting extended dry spells during the summer-time to occur from time-to-time over the decades ahead.
The length of the dry spell is a record for summer-time at Coffs, though not yet for the other towns.
The threshold for an extended dry spell for the towns listed below being more than three weeks (22 days or more) without any recordable rain.

Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Coffs Harbour during or partly during summer (since 1900):
23 Dec 2018 to present - 26 days and counting
22 Dec 1993 to 14 Jan 1994 - 24 days
20 Jan 1952 to 11 Feb 1952 - 23 days
23 Feb 1943 to 17 Mar 1943 - 23 days
30 Jan 1939 to 20 Feb 1939 - 22 days
14 Nov 1913 to 5 Dec 1913 - 22 days
13 Dec 1902 to 4 Jan 1903 - 23 days



Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Grafton during or partly during summer (since 1871):
23 Dec 2018 to present - 26 days and counting
19 Jan 1952 to 11 Feb 1952 - 24 days
22 Feb 1943 to 17 Mar 1942 - 24 days
28 Jan 1926 to 23 Feb 1926 - 27 days
15 Jan 1915 to 6 Feb 1915 - 23 days
23 Dec 1904 to 15 Jan 1905 - 24 days
19 Dec 1902 to 11 Jan 1903 - 24 days
3 Dec 1893 to 1 Jan 1894 - 30 days
25 Feb 1883 to 24 Mar 1883 - 28 days
18 Nov 1881 to 18 Dec 1881 - 31 days
26 Nov 1876 to 17 Dec 1876 - 22 days
19 Nov 1875 to 14 Dec 1875 - 26 days



Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Yamba during or partly during summer (since 1877):
26 Dec 2018 to present - 23 days and counting
4 Jan 2018 to 27 Jan 2018 - 24 days
21 Dec 1954 to 11 Jan 1955 - 22 days
20 Jan 1952 to 11 Feb 1952 - 23 days
20 Dec 1932 to 11 Jan 1933 - 23 days
4 Feb 1926 to 26 Feb 1926 - 23 days
12 Jan 1912 to 8 Feb 1912 - 28 days
17 Jan 1900 to 8 Feb 1900 - 23 days
20 Jan 1892 to 15 Feb 1892 - 27 days
30 Jan 1886 to 24 Feb 1886 - 26 days
12 Nov 1883 to 5 Dec 1883 - 24 days
30 Dec 1879 to 23 Jan 1880 - 25 days



Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Casino during or partly during summer (since 1879):
24 Dec 2018 to present - 25 days and counting
4 Jan 2018 to 28 Jan 2018 - 25 days
19 Jan 1945 to 11 Feb 1945 - 24 days
1 Feb 1926 to 26 Feb 1926 - 26 days
15 Nov 1906 to 12 Dec 1906 - 28 days
22 Dec 1904 to 12 Jan 1905 - 22 days
19 Dec 1902 to 9 Jan 1903 - 22 days



Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Lismore during or partly during summer (since 1884):
25 Dec 2018 to present - 24 days and counting
18 Jan 1952 to 12 Feb 1952 - 26 days
11 Dec 1920 to 3 Jan 1921 - 24 days
19 Jan 1915 to 9 Feb 1915 - 22 days
3 Nov 1913 to 5 Dec 1913 - 33 days
5 Dec 1893 to 1 Jan 1894 - 28 days
Posted by: PlumbBob

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/01/2019 22:59

Showing some Precip now ? Oh what a feeling, - remember them - wet days ;-)

Posted by: Vinnie

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 01:23

If we weren't getting an average summer this year with the ridge, what sort of summer would SE Qld be having, would the 40 deg temps in NSW be in Queensland ?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 06:33

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Thereís no doubt whatsoever that an index is really handy in terms of removing subjectivity but as mentioned in my previous post, itís also vital to consider the context of the bigger picture itís used in.
For example, CAPE is handy for estimating instability but as we all know, thereís also many instances where something like high surface-based CAPE values donít reflect the true instability of the atmosphere due to the assumption that all parcels are rising from the surface and a big cap is preventing storms from forming, high positive SOI values that may only be high because of local weather systems rather than a true La NiŮa phase that would otherwise produce rainy cool weather, or very warm NI—O 3 and 3.4 SST anomalies that donít reflect a full blown El NiŮo because the atmosphere isnít coupling with the ocean.


But the index still does its job. The Modoki index measures whether the SST is warm in the middle and cooler east and west, and most recent index reflects SST that is warm in the middle and cooler east and west. High CAPE means that a parcel from the surface would have large amounts of energy if it ascends to the top, regardless of whether something else stops this parcel from rising, SOI shows whether pressures in Darwin or in Tahiti are higher, regardless of whether pressures elsewhere match the typical Southern Oscillation pattern, and a high nino 3.4 value represents a warm central Pacific regardless of whether the atmosphere is doing something unexpected.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 08:02

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..18 JAN 2019 TIME..0700

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......24.8C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........69%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 18C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...SSW 5ph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1016.7Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......32.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....20.8C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...18.5C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....18C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1014.7Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..NE 33kph at 1544
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... No signficant weather.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 08:13

Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Originally Posted By: Mega
More garbage from EC this afternoon. Just one gigantic ridge right through till the end of the month.


RWM's line recently that the ridge MIGHT slowly break down by the end of 2019 might not have been a light hearted joke . This ridge is no joke alright! Thinking of even driving down to the northern tablelands of NSW somehow for an overnight stay with the missus next week for a reprieve and maybe even see a cloud that could produce a shower or storm.


Was no joke. Too old for these. Based on a long held theory of mine, with reference to the other thread mentioned.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 08:19

Thanks for that information Seabreeze. Could be a few records broken soon.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 09:21

I think a road trip is definitely in order Tweed. Might be time for my annual drive down to Lennox Head smile
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 09:53

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Thereís no doubt whatsoever that an index is really handy in terms of removing subjectivity but as mentioned in my previous post, itís also vital to consider the context of the bigger picture itís used in.
For example, CAPE is handy for estimating instability but as we all know, thereís also many instances where something like high surface-based CAPE values donít reflect the true instability of the atmosphere due to the assumption that all parcels are rising from the surface and a big cap is preventing storms from forming, high positive SOI values that may only be high because of local weather systems rather than a true La NiŮa phase that would otherwise produce rainy cool weather, or very warm NI—O 3 and 3.4 SST anomalies that donít reflect a full blown El NiŮo because the atmosphere isnít coupling with the ocean.


But the index still does its job. The Modoki index measures whether the SST is warm in the middle and cooler east and west, and most recent index reflects SST that is warm in the middle and cooler east and west. High CAPE means that a parcel from the surface would have large amounts of energy if it ascends to the top, regardless of whether something else stops this parcel from rising, SOI shows whether pressures in Darwin or in Tahiti are higher, regardless of whether pressures elsewhere match the typical Southern Oscillation pattern, and a high nino 3.4 value represents a warm central Pacific regardless of whether the atmosphere is doing something unexpected.

I think you may have misunderstood my point, and that was itís what the index implies compared to the bigger picture that counts. An index will always give a value that its formula tells it calculate.
By using rigid boxes with fixed boundaries, thereís times that a phenomenon doesnít give a realistic idea of whatís going on in the big picture. Have a look at the SST animation I posted and show me when in the last few months you see a distinct sustained warm pool in the central Pacific with much cooler SST anomalies to its east and west in the near-equatorial latitudes.

In the examples I mentioned, my point was that high SB CAPE does not always mean highly unstable atmosphere and storms (if parcels are rising from a deeply mixed layer which they often do during hot sunny days over land), high SOI values donít always mean a La NiŮa, etc etc.

I could go on and on with many other examples like the K-index used to get an idea of airmass thunderstorm potential but it only uses temp/DP values at the three fixed levels of 850, 700 and 500hpa so it can miss whatís going on in between those levels but Iím sure to get my drift.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 10:24

As far as I can tell the big picture is that SSTs resemble modoki el nino, rainfall patterns in Australia resemble modoki el nino, and atmospheric impacts on cloudiness and trade winds resemble el nino modoki (perhaps weaker than a typical full blown el nino, but definitely still there).
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 10:40

I guess weíll just have to agree to disagree then. It may or may not go down on paper as a Modoki event purely based on an index but I canít see anywhere in that SST animation that conclusively shows that itís a Modoki event. And itís that SST pattern which is needed to cause the atmospheric circulations that affect the rainfall patterns in our area.
Posted by: Petros

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 11:01

Gotta hand it to you Mike, I admire your tenaciousness! smile
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 12:14

Well what ever it is. It horendus.
We missed that good dump of rain before xmas
Bugger all since
My lawn reminds me of late november in Townsville. Just brown and the dead grass is getting that black look.
Nz south island has continued southwesterlies in line with a elnino
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 13:26

Further post on modoki status in climate driver thread.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 19:49

Fantastic research SEABREEZE!! You have put a lot of time into that. I find the results very interesting.

GRAFTON
For example . It has been from 1952 to 2018= 66 yrs
since this has happened.
I quasi ~60~66yr

https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=66+yr+climate+cycle&qpvt=66+yr+climate+cycle&FORM=IGRE

Solar 11yr cycle Hale cycle 22yr
3 Hales and 6 schwabes

This is of interest to my research on the schwabe triplets

When l have time l will delve a little deeper.
------------

I have taken the liberty of placing your research on my blog.
I have a particular interest in weathercycles
https://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2019...1/#comment-7305
---
You could be right in hinting of a change in natural climate regime.
I am a bit out of touch atm due to being AWOL

I also have some of Surlybonds ,( manilla . NSW)research posted on my blog as well.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 19:50

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Further post on modoki status in climate driver thread.


I'm sure there's some good posters on that thread but after hearing all the comments people have made about what goes on in there, I think I'm happy staying here smile
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 19:53

Can we leave these posts about the climate in the appropriate thread and get back to what this thread is about.As for latest GFS,its looking good around the beginning of Feb,long way out I know but at this time it's something to get exited about.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 19:56

Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Can we leave these posts about the climate in the appropriate thread and get back to what this thread is about.As for latest GFS,its looking good around the beginning of Feb,long way out I know but at this time it's something to get exited about.

The posts related to influences that affect the day to day weather in our region so I think they were entirely relevant. Broader scale influences on seasonal timescales and short term local influences aren't mutually exclusive in terms of their effects on our day to day weather here and there's always some overlap. By definition, climate is the longer term average of day to day weather after all.
Even Seabreeze himself has said here in the past that such discussion isn't a problem here.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 19:59

Feb - pls bring the rain like you do. Be well grim if itís a lean feb.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 20:15

ACCESS has gone off a precipitation signal for Saturday evening. I suspect the southerly change won't make it up here.
However ACCESS showing a precipitation signal west of the divide
every afternoon this week during diurnal max. 5pm time slot
especially in NSW for most of the week.

Finally a strong surface trough with NW tropical infeed forecast..
commencing its passage from WA to SA , VIC , NSW on the 24th Jan
t+150hrs

Will be worth the watch just to see if it busts our ridging ?

Also at the same time ACCESS has 2 tropical lows. One on NW WA coast and one tropical low in the coral

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 20:28

Tonight's EC - some other variables thrown into the mix but none really line up to change the current pattern much if at all:

- Weak upper low offshore (between New Cal and QLD coast)
- TC in gulf associated with monsoon burst
- Weak surface trough trying its best to dig into SEQ from NSW but I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't reach us at all.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 21:06

Think the reason being we can see how the discussion goes when we talk climate.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 21:50

Are us weather enthusiasts, farmers and others who live off the land, most affected by this blistering relentless boring dry pattern.I talk to people I live amongst here in semi burbia and am out and about in a wide variety of settings and people don't on the whole make any comments about how seriously dry things are or how unusual the weather is with continuous hot dry days with not a raincloud in sight.
I find it intriguing.I guess they are so entrenched in their lives.Maybe it's just my observations.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 21:54

Iím wondering how the croppers out in the Lockyer are going. Havenít seen anything about it, so it must be ok, but surely things would be getting sketchy by now? Re lack of raIn......Anyone out that way know more?
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 22:03

Its dry its been a couple of months between rain don't think its too out of the norm, been through it many times.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 22:17

Originally Posted By: Steve O
Its dry its been a couple of months between rain don't think its too out of the norm, been through it many times.


Maybe it is in this part of the world. Having lived most of my life in Sydney up until 12 years ago, I am probably not prepared for these sort of conditions when they do occur.It certainly is a unique part of the world given we live in the subtropics and it can quite be as dry as the desert during summer
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 22:21

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Can we leave these posts about the climate in the appropriate thread and get back to what this thread is about.As for latest GFS,its looking good around the beginning of Feb,long way out I know but at this time it's something to get exited about.

The posts related to influences that affect the day to day weather in our region so I think they were entirely relevant. Broader scale influences on seasonal timescales and short term local influences aren't mutually exclusive in terms of their effects on our day to day weather here and there's always some overlap. By definition, climate is the longer term average of day to day weather after all.
Even Seabreeze himself has said here in the past that such discussion isn't a problem here.
Yep, Climate Driver discussion (ENSO, IOD, SAM, AAO etc) isn't a problem in here as it's inter-related with the daily, monthly and seasonal weather we receive. Unlike the Climate Driver thread in General Weather, most of the time when it gets discussed here in the "day-to-day" thread, there is more of a specific focus on effects the climate driver/drivers are having or could potentially have on the SEQLD/NENSW region.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/01/2019 23:46

Originally Posted By: crikey
Fantastic research SEABREEZE!! You have put a lot of time into that. I find the results very interesting.

GRAFTON
For example . It has been from 1952 to 2018= 66 yrs
since this has happened.
I quasi ~60~66yr

https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=66+yr+climate+cycle&qpvt=66+yr+climate+cycle&FORM=IGRE

Solar 11yr cycle Hale cycle 22yr
3 Hales and 6 schwabes

This is of interest to my research on the schwabe triplets

When l have time l will delve a little deeper.
------------

I have taken the liberty of placing your research on my blog.
I have a particular interest in weathercycles
https://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2019...1/#comment-7305
---
You could be right in hinting of a change in natural climate regime.
I am a bit out of touch atm due to being AWOL

I also have some of Surlybonds ,( manilla . NSW)research posted on my blog as well.
Thanks Crikey, yeah it did take quite a bit of time as you have to look one year at time at each one of the sites. Thankfully, twenty-something plus dry spells are reasonably noticeable on the daily rainfall charts for each year.

It doesn't have records for as long as the other five sites I mentioned, but for South West Rocks these are the dry spells during / partly during summer of 22 days or more (since 1939):
Dec 24th 1993 to Jan 14th 1994 - 22 days
Jan 17th 1952 to Feb 11th 1952 - 26 days
Feb 20th 1943 to Mar 17th 1943 - 26 days



This could be of interest too, I saw that Canberra in late January 1952 experienced a heatwave of significance
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...r_H#Post1485913
During the same period of time, the Jan-Feb of 1952 saw 5 of those 6 towns I've looked at here on the north coast experience an extended dry spell without any recordable rain (Casino was the odd one out).

Fast forward to 2019, Canberra's experiencing a significant heatwave and 5 of those 6 towns I've looked at on the north coast are currently experiencing (late Dec 2018 - Jan 2019) an extended dry spell without any recordable rain (South West Rocks being the odd one out this time).
Posted by: Kino

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 19/01/2019 07:55

Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
I've looked to see how the current dry spell compares to previous ones during the summer-time along the NSW north coast.
It looks like extended dry spells during the summer were more common before the mid 1950s and have been pretty much absent since then until 2018. If this is a cyclical pattern, I would be expecting extended dry spells during the summer-time to occur from time-to-time over the decades ahead.
The length of the dry spell is a record for summer-time at Coffs, though not yet for the other towns.
The threshold for an extended dry spell for the towns listed below being more than three weeks (22 days or more) without any recordable rain.

Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Coffs Harbour during or partly during summer (since 1900):
23 Dec 2018 to present - 26 days and counting
22 Dec 1993 to 14 Jan 1994 - 24 days
20 Jan 1952 to 11 Feb 1952 - 23 days
23 Feb 1943 to 17 Mar 1943 - 23 days
30 Jan 1939 to 20 Feb 1939 - 22 days
14 Nov 1913 to 5 Dec 1913 - 22 days
13 Dec 1902 to 4 Jan 1903 - 23 days



Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Grafton during or partly during summer (since 1871):
23 Dec 2018 to present - 26 days and counting
19 Jan 1952 to 11 Feb 1952 - 24 days
22 Feb 1943 to 17 Mar 1942 - 24 days
28 Jan 1926 to 23 Feb 1926 - 27 days
15 Jan 1915 to 6 Feb 1915 - 23 days
23 Dec 1904 to 15 Jan 1905 - 24 days
19 Dec 1902 to 11 Jan 1903 - 24 days
3 Dec 1893 to 1 Jan 1894 - 30 days
25 Feb 1883 to 24 Mar 1883 - 28 days
18 Nov 1881 to 18 Dec 1881 - 31 days
26 Nov 1876 to 17 Dec 1876 - 22 days
19 Nov 1875 to 14 Dec 1875 - 26 days



Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Yamba during or partly during summer (since 1877):
26 Dec 2018 to present - 23 days and counting
4 Jan 2018 to 27 Jan 2018 - 24 days
21 Dec 1954 to 11 Jan 1955 - 22 days
20 Jan 1952 to 11 Feb 1952 - 23 days
20 Dec 1932 to 11 Jan 1933 - 23 days
4 Feb 1926 to 26 Feb 1926 - 23 days
12 Jan 1912 to 8 Feb 1912 - 28 days
17 Jan 1900 to 8 Feb 1900 - 23 days
20 Jan 1892 to 15 Feb 1892 - 27 days
30 Jan 1886 to 24 Feb 1886 - 26 days
12 Nov 1883 to 5 Dec 1883 - 24 days
30 Dec 1879 to 23 Jan 1880 - 25 days



Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Casino during or partly during summer (since 1879):
24 Dec 2018 to present - 25 days and counting
4 Jan 2018 to 28 Jan 2018 - 25 days
19 Jan 1945 to 11 Feb 1945 - 24 days
1 Feb 1926 to 26 Feb 1926 - 26 days
15 Nov 1906 to 12 Dec 1906 - 28 days
22 Dec 1904 to 12 Jan 1905 - 22 days
19 Dec 1902 to 9 Jan 1903 - 22 days



Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Lismore during or partly during summer (since 1884):
25 Dec 2018 to present - 24 days and counting
18 Jan 1952 to 12 Feb 1952 - 26 days
11 Dec 1920 to 3 Jan 1921 - 24 days
19 Jan 1915 to 9 Feb 1915 - 22 days
3 Nov 1913 to 5 Dec 1913 - 33 days
5 Dec 1893 to 1 Jan 1894 - 28 days


That is fascinating, thanks & well done.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 19/01/2019 08:03

The thing that sort of gives me hope is the trade winds associated with the ridge we have been experiencing and with that synoptic setup and monsoon forecast might see something develop in or around CYP or GOC,might give me hope if the tropics are firing I might not get a storm or rain at my house but atleast its getting shared around.
The ridging in our parts seems to be bending in a more favourable direction bringing us a more onshore component with that big trough thats been diggin down S.A NSW may even extend into QLD at some point which leads me to my next point, if we were experiencing a N to NW surface winds you would feel it alot more dry less humidity and temp inversion become more evident with that haze filled sky that is the dry. I definitely don't want to see places in drought so I guess I'm just hoping there will be some rain eventually..theres always going to be drought and floods and extreme temps pretty sure that's why when the first explorer's who came to Aus were like nope not enough weather here.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 19/01/2019 09:04

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..19 JAN 2019 TIME..0800

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......25.8C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........65%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 19C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... 9kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1018.3Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........Trace

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......32.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....20.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...18.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....19C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1016.2Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 33kph at 1327
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Slight shower Fri. morning. No rain recorded.
Posted by: Stormwalker

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 19/01/2019 09:20

Anyone else experiencing issues with the forum today? Seems to take a long time to load.

As a precaution - I created a seqweather subreddit (/r/seqweather). I thought it may be useful just in case the forum ever goes down and we arenít able to contact each other.
Posted by: Lewis

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 19/01/2019 11:37

Originally Posted By: Stormwalker
Anyone else experiencing issues with the forum today? Seems to take a long time to load.

As a precaution - I created a seqweather subreddit (/r/seqweather). I thought it may be useful just in case the forum ever goes down and we arenít able to contact each other.


No issues with loading the forums this morning on my end.

Not that I'm worried, what am I going to miss - more dry weather? cry
Posted by: Stormwalker

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 19/01/2019 12:49

Re: forum speed. It seems to have corrected itself. I might have panicked because I thought I read somewhere WZ were either upgrading, or maybe discontinuing the forums.

Then it occurred to me if it was the latter then I didnít know what the backup would be! I thought of a FB group but understand some like to keep their identies anonymous, so reddit seemed like the next best thing. smile
Posted by: Flippy

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 19/01/2019 14:07

Re this never ending pattern (Ridge) I reckon we at least have a couple more months to go, then it will break with an all mighty deluge come April/May through the likes of either a late ex TC/TD or standard ECL. These long prolonged spells of dry wx always seem to bust eventually. My two cents anyway! 🙏😉
Posted by: KevD

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 19/01/2019 14:23

Originally Posted By: Stormwalker
Re: forum speed. It seems to have corrected itself. I might have panicked because I thought I read somewhere WZ were either upgrading, or maybe discontinuing the forums.

Not you, have found it almost impossible to get on all day, other sites loading well. This forum is a left over backwater from when the original site was set up, and with the site now having changed hands a few times I suspect the new owners (Channel 9) have no idea it even exists!
Over 40 here today in Bellingen, crazy hot. Luckily no fires in our region, dry as anything around here, no rain since 20th Dec.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 19/01/2019 17:06

Thought its a bit hot today, 40.5C earlier.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 19/01/2019 18:02

Trying to figure out what's the attraction of northern NSW getting storms and not SEQLD ??
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 19/01/2019 18:07

Originally Posted By: gleno71
Trying to figure out what's the attraction of northern NSW getting storms and not SEQLD ??


Weak surface trough sitting through the area down there. Quidge up here.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 19/01/2019 19:24

Forum still slow to load but not as bad as this morning.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 19/01/2019 19:25

Took one minute to load the above small message.
Posted by: Bundy

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 19/01/2019 19:52

Forum has loaded fine for me all day, but perhaps it has had moments of slowness. Not trying to troll anyone, just giving an input
from my experience.
Posted by: Nic_Bri

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 19/01/2019 20:20

Went for a trek into the northern end of D'Aguilar National Park today. The surrounding country at Woodford was relatively green so I was confident there may have been water in the creeks. When we got to Rocky Hole the place was packed with swimmers and the water was quite murky and a lot of algae ringing the edges of the waterholes and the rocks. My kids wouldn't swim! Seems that although there may have been showers up that way there hasn't been a proper 'flush out' for a while.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 19/01/2019 20:44

Traveled over to Texas earlier today. Saw some nice little showers starting to form to the east and southeast of town. Looking at the radar now, looks like I should have stayed a bit longer. Was on business but.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 19/01/2019 21:46

Thanks seabreeze that you wer happy l posted your research. I have added that additional information in the comment section.

I took the time this evening to correlate your findings by superimposing the years of dry spells over the AMO time series graph.
I have put this follow up research on your blog post attached at the end
I have put this graph (results) and some comments l made re the correlation. The results are worth a follow up and l may look into that at some time l hope.
Basically l want to correlate those dry spell years with solar cycle next and then the harder research is to look for the driver that turns off that dry spell sequence for on cycle of the AMO.. at the moment l have no idea what that might be.

Here is the correlation graph
certainly interesting l find..

BTW the AMO ( atlantic multi decadal oscillation)is a quasi cycle of between 60-80 yrs .

Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 19/01/2019 22:35

Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Trying to figure out what's the attraction of northern NSW getting storms and not SEQLD ??


Weak surface trough sitting through the area down there. Quidge up here.


Thanks Mega

Re Forum speed. Pretty slow on my end
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 20/01/2019 00:01

Cheers Crikey. Always interesting to see patterns, I hope you find the answers you're looking for someday.

A gentle southerly change moved through here this afternoon. The southerly was more humid than the northeasterly it replaced, so it hasn't brought any relief. A deck of low cloud moved in behind the change, trapping the warmth and making for a very muggy evening.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 20/01/2019 18:43

Forum speed very slow . Is technician looking into that?
---
The ACCESS G forecast for the strong trough forming out west is for the embedded low to dip SE and our ridging stays INTACT.

So now to watch tracking of the NW WA Tropical storm, and 2 lows on the monsoon trough in the coral sea ( t+150hrs ACCESS forecast)
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...rea=Au&model=CG
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 21/01/2019 08:36

Finally able to access this Forum, been down since late Friday.

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..21 JAN 2019 TIME..0735

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......27.0C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........72%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... SE 10kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1017.6Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........25KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........Smoke haze.

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......32.0C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....21.2C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....20C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1017.6Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 33kph at 1525
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Smoke haze.
Posted by: Golden State

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 21/01/2019 10:15

What do we make of this ?

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/rainfallchart.jsp?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mh=336
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 21/01/2019 10:15

Hi all , Bit of a update on my weather station Been down for a few months ,With a seized bearing.Any way it is a Digitech from Jaycar third one Got 3years from the first one till the transmitter died .3 years from the second one bearing failure third one this one 4 years so far the bearing went . found a place called Plaig bearings AU. The bearings are 4mm inner and 10 mm outer and 5mm wide part number MR105-2rs and about $1.95 each lol so i ordered 4 and arrived in 2 days .Just use a screwdriver to gently lift off cups or vane gently lever off bearing , tap new one on and press on the cups or vane and done .I had problems with it not working and over a week after checking pulled the battery's from the receiver screen for 10 seconds and it is like new again . We have so much dust here thats what is killing them . Have a great day all
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 21/01/2019 10:35

Yes Golden State, I was looking at the same thing. Looks like a nice easterly feed comes in for February as a new high moves east from the Bight. Looks like that heatwave high finally breaks down, for awhile anyway. Hope some shower activity makes it this far inland. Looking forward to the cooler temps.! I hope this forecast comes off. GFS has been quite consistent with this setup for several days now.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 21/01/2019 10:54

In light of the relentless run of similar weather day after day and the eagerness for any sign of some decent rain, the video below is somewhat pertinent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkDvqQKGgDA
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 21/01/2019 11:04

What really needs to be kept in mind is the magnitude of the rain deficiencies developing, especially along the border, even getting right to the coast now. After a thousand attempts for a big rain event for our area extended GFS might get it right one day.
Posted by: Golden State

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 21/01/2019 11:26

^ don't you just love living in a region where seemingly about 856 things all need to align perfectly for rain to happen..
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 21/01/2019 14:44

Torrential downpours and thunderstorms again for parts of Sydney last night and mid North coast today.When is this nightmare ever gunna end for us up here. Just ridiculous
Posted by: Golden State

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 21/01/2019 16:21

Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Torrential downpours and thunderstorms again for parts of Sydney last night and mid North coast today.When is this nightmare ever gunna end for us up here. Just ridiculous


despite what the yearly totals would suggest, Sydney appears to have had a truckload more rain than south east qld over the last couple of years, at least.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 21/01/2019 16:34

Originally Posted By: Golden State

despite what the yearly totals would suggest, Sydney appears to have had a truckload more rain than south east qld over the last couple of years, at least.


"truckload more rain" could mean one of two things (1) more rain in total or (2) more rain days even if rain totals are not more. I would not be surprised if rain totals are not more, but more rain days could be a fair observation (which I have not analysed but could be readily done data available on line)
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 21/01/2019 19:00

Brisbane 2016 1054mm
2017 1371mm
2018 859mm
long term av. 1011mm...

Sydney 2016 1386mm
2017 881mm
2018 1044mm

long term av. 1216mm....


( Pardon the spacing - although typed up properly WZ does its own thing where reproduced. )
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 21/01/2019 19:22

EC - Finally, this useless 'dry' ridge is nearly eroded at the end of the run and is replaced by a more traditional Jan/Feb ridge from deep in the Coral Sea. Possible weak upper low / trough thrown into the mix.
GFS - Same deal.

No major rain events on either model as yet but definitely better signs with the STR retreating south allowing more moisture to build up again along the coast. It's a start (if it even happens, heh).
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 21/01/2019 19:40

Dry, dry, dry - cry, cry, cry cry
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 21/01/2019 20:39

Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Torrential downpours and thunderstorms again for parts of Sydney last night and mid North coast today.When is this nightmare ever gunna end for us up here. Just ridiculous
would love some of that action here....other then the green bits underneath the trees, our yard is the brownest I have seen in quite some time. We camped on families new property about halfway between Gatton and Warwick over the weekend, was a bit nicer there then our place, but still looking pretty average out there also.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 21/01/2019 21:43

Itís been interesting weather everywhere but here. Iíve been keeping track of the big winter storm thatís swept across the US where many states have had a huge variety of weather including heavy rain, thunderstorms, large hail, tornado, strong winds, freezing rain, blizzards, large snow dumps, and wild temperature swings. The thundersnowís been great: https://www.facebook.com/reedtimmerAccu/videos/588781691549075/?t=10
Have also been jealous of Japan with their lightning and thunder with snowfalls and strong winds among many weather types.

Meanwhile back here, my lawns are well and truly crispy and brown again.

The next few days might see some shower/thunderstorm activity spread a little further up over southwestern parts of SE QLD especially on Thursday (but the SE steering winds make many mid and northern sections of the coast look less than ideal).
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 21/01/2019 22:10

A few distant thunderheads far to the south from storms around Inglewood/Gundy way this evening were probably the most interesting thing I've seen weatherwise this year. Discounting a couple of 0.2mm falls the last rain here was 34 days ago, not really keeping track but thats gotta be some sort of record for summer frown

That thundersnow looks awesome Ken, sure as hell beats this rubbish, the only things falling out of the sky here are dehydrated crows and desiccated fruit bats!
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 21/01/2019 22:41

1.8mm here from a little evening rain. Until today, the only other rain that had fallen here since Dec 21st (31 days ago) was on Jan 7th when 0.4mm fell. Distant thunder was heard during this afternoon.
Another very humid day and night on the northern MNC, with dewpoints getting over 24 degrees on the coast. Light winds also adding to the mugginess.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 22/01/2019 08:49

With it looking likely for no substantial rain to end of January, this is seriously looking like becoming the worst January rainfall for widespread SEQ deficiency. No doubt some will find record low January rainfall for their personal rain gauge or local rain gauge at a number of locations.

However the picture is more bleak at regional scale for widespread lack of rain for the area covering the combined South East Coast, Darling Downs and Granite Belt, and Wide Bay Burnett official forecast districts (13 to 15) as defined on this map. http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/map.shtml

For that widespread area, the lowest Jan total since 1900 was January 2003, which had widespread below 25 mm.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/arch...d=month&area=qd

Month to date Jan 2019 for that same area appears lower than 2003 and if no rain occurs to month end may end up worst since 1900.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...=cmonth&area=qd

I appreciate there are some particularly in Darling Downs - Granite Belt who not only have a low January but extended period now approaching close to 18 to 24 months or so of very low rainfall.

Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 22/01/2019 10:36

Excellent post, Flowin. Just hope there is something big (Rainwise, of course) coming in Feb.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 22/01/2019 11:02

Sunshine coast has done quite well last and previous storm season (up to Dec). And done quite well last Autumn showery season. But second January in a row very dry, but damage not too bad because of good rain in the storm season. In some ways it seems that whatever weather we commonly get in a season we are getting a lot of. Late winter dry, and (sometimes) dry gap between storm and shower season quite dry, but storm season and shower season proper quite good.

Lawn out front exposed to sun and high on ridge losing its lush green but not really brown yet. Lawn further down the hill with some shelter still quite green. Only a week or two ago a hill round the corner from my place stopped seeping water at bottom.

Such a big difference between Sunshine Coast and areas not that far away.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 22/01/2019 11:11

you have been lucky Mike. Off topic , Birdsville should crack two weeks running at max temps 45+.. even for Birdsville, thats savage.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 22/01/2019 13:00

Also looking at those rainfall maps and deciles how badly rain wise areas of northern and especially the NE corner of NSW (the Wilson and Richmond River, Upper Clarence and Tweed) are doing since the 1st November.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 22/01/2019 14:28

Lawn is a sea of brown at the moment, fingers crossed we see some rain in the near future.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 22/01/2019 17:51

Good rumbles here from that powerhouse little cell to our S and SE. I like the colours! Maybe some hail? More developing to our SW. Hope we score some action!
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 22/01/2019 17:54

Massive CG!
Posted by: Golden State

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 22/01/2019 19:36

Originally Posted By: Golden State


And just like that itís gone.. rainless driest January of all time is a lock
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 22/01/2019 19:56

Looking at the ext forecasts every time a trough or tropical activity tries to approach SEQ it gets blasted away by the constant ridge. I can't see how this pattern is going to break any time soon.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 22/01/2019 19:59

Good to see you're having fun Mike grin
Posted by: Golden State

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 22/01/2019 20:02

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Looking at the ext forecasts every time a trough or tropical activity tries to approach SEQ it gets blasted away by the constant ridge. I can't see how this pattern is going to break any time soon.


Rain has officially packed up gone... place will be a desert soon
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 22/01/2019 20:04

There is hope if you look at EC if I'm reading it right but we will see. But no time soon so not too interested will be watching the tropics and movement of those systems. Theres a distinct mid upper ridge set in place which seems to show a more E to SE steering flow and its pretty visible in the WATL charts.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 22/01/2019 20:08

ACCESS r has a precipitation signal on the divide tomorrow arvo' This is the closest this daily instability west of the divide has come to the coast for ages.
Between 30 and 28 s latitude. Coffs' to the border.
I was thinking we may see some dark clouds to the SW of the Tweed later arvo'tomorrow .
This precipitation signal extends west of the divide into SE qld as well.Even West of Brisbane.
and inland parts
May be of interest to storm watchers .?
Have a look at the 5pm time slot
There is band of rain arriving from the south west currently tonight. I was surprised that appelthorpe has had 8mm
Warwick 4mm
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR282.loop.shtml#skip

ACCES r link for our area
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 22/01/2019 20:11

Originally Posted By: Steve O
There is hope if you look at EC if I'm reading it right but we will see.


Not sure what EC output you're looking at but I still can't see any good confidence of decent rain events in it yet.

The next couple of days still looks like featuring some spread in shower and thunderstorm activity in SE QLD but favouring the southern and slightly inland parts of our region with the S to SE steering winds aloft.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 22/01/2019 20:16

I don't have confidence at all but the general set up how it's changing through the end of the model runs I can only hope I dont have that much foresight..that it changes up. Im not religious or anything so no point hoping I guess. The stuff coming up ive already written that off and looking into next couple of weeks.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 22/01/2019 20:37

Originally Posted By: Golden State


And just like that itís gone.. rainless driest January of all time is a lock


"just like that is gone" is explained in a friendly humourous way in this video link I posted earlier... around end of page 15 on this thread I think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkDvqQKGgDA
have a look at the video. humour is healthy in times of dismality.
ps I do not know if dismality is real word to describe a dismal situation and if it is not a real word I would say this situation deserves it.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 22/01/2019 23:16

A weak storm and some light rain at times bringing 8.0mm here since 9am this morning.

Grafton and Coffs ended their dry spells today with 2.0mm and 0.8mm falling, respectively.
Yamba ended it's dry back on the weekend (when 1.0mm fell).
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Coffs Harbour during or partly during summer (since 1900):
23 Dec 2018 to 22 Jan 2019 - 31 days
22 Dec 1993 to 14 Jan 1994 - 24 days
20 Jan 1952 to 11 Feb 1952 - 23 days
23 Feb 1943 to 17 Mar 1943 - 23 days
30 Jan 1939 to 20 Feb 1939 - 22 days
14 Nov 1913 to 5 Dec 1913 - 22 days
13 Dec 1902 to 4 Jan 1903 - 23 days



Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Grafton during or partly during summer (since 1871):
23 Dec 2018 to 22 Jan 2019 - 31 days
19 Jan 1952 to 11 Feb 1952 - 24 days
22 Feb 1943 to 17 Mar 1942 - 24 days
28 Jan 1926 to 23 Feb 1926 - 27 days
15 Jan 1915 to 6 Feb 1915 - 23 days
23 Dec 1904 to 15 Jan 1905 - 24 days
19 Dec 1902 to 11 Jan 1903 - 24 days
3 Dec 1893 to 1 Jan 1894 - 30 days
25 Feb 1883 to 24 Mar 1883 - 28 days
18 Nov 1881 to 18 Dec 1881 - 31 days
26 Nov 1876 to 17 Dec 1876 - 22 days
19 Nov 1875 to 14 Dec 1875 - 26 days



Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Yamba during or partly during summer (since 1877):
26 Dec 2018 to 19 Jan 2019 - 25 days
4 Jan 2018 to 27 Jan 2018 - 24 days
21 Dec 1954 to 11 Jan 1955 - 22 days
20 Jan 1952 to 11 Feb 1952 - 23 days
20 Dec 1932 to 11 Jan 1933 - 23 days
4 Feb 1926 to 26 Feb 1926 - 23 days
12 Jan 1912 to 8 Feb 1912 - 28 days
17 Jan 1900 to 8 Feb 1900 - 23 days
20 Jan 1892 to 15 Feb 1892 - 27 days
30 Jan 1886 to 24 Feb 1886 - 26 days
12 Nov 1883 to 5 Dec 1883 - 24 days
30 Dec 1879 to 23 Jan 1880 - 25 days

Casino and Lismore are still waiting for their first recordable rain (e.g. 0.2mm or more) since late December though.
Posted by: weatherhobbiest

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 06:22

Rainfall here at Sunnybank Hills so far this month/year:

Thursday, January 3: 30 mm.
Friday, January 4: 5 mm.

Total: 35 mm.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 07:36

This morning's model runs show gulf TC heading SW into NT and Coral Sea trough / embedded lows (most likely hybrid) remaining out to sea. End result? Most of QLD remains largely dry. Bloody hell.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 08:35

Back on the air again after more Forum access issues. My Pro membership ( 13 years ) comes up next month. Might have to think about it after all these drop outs.

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..23 JAN 2019 TIME..0720

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.0C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........77%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 22C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... NNW 8kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1014.7Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........5/8 cloud.

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......31.8C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....22.9C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.3C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....21C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1015.4Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 34kph at 1546
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... No significant weather.
Posted by: weatherhobbiest

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 08:39

Let's hope the models are wrong then. Most of Queensland (and indeed most of eastern Australia) badly needs a drink!
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 09:52

The record dry spell in Kin Kin was 99 days back in the early 2000s drought, fingers firmly crossed we don't see a repeat of that. The pattern in the last few years of massive downpours followed by months of very dry weather is a worry. The rule of thumb here used to be a minimum of one inch of rain a week just to keep things ticking along.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 10:34

Things will start getting serious if it doesn't rain by winter.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 12:26





I know I've said this before but this is another good example of how just because the tropics become active with a monsoonal burst (such as the one expected in the coming days), it doesn't then necessarily mean we get anything down here.

Sometimes it does happen (e.g. strong MJO pulse combined with a cooperative synoptic pattern), but often monsoonal activity doesn't reach anywhere down near our area and we're left with a continuation of hot dry conditions.
The synoptic setup across southern latitudes e.g. a large blocking high still often plays a significant role in helping to determine what weather we get here in combination with any influences coming down from the tropics.
(speaking of the monsoon, this bit in the latest Weekly Tropical Climate Note is noteworthy: " Monsoon onset at Darwin typically occurs at the end of December and the latest onset date on record is 25 January 1973. Hence, if monsoon onset does not occur later this week, then this will be the latest start to the monsoon in Darwin since records commenced in the 1957-58 wet season. ")

Latest multiweek EC ensemble for the period between about the 4th and 10 Feb has a significant percentage of its scenarios suggesting wetter than normal conditions spreading across a big swath of southern, central and eastern Australia BUT they're a bit closer to 50/50 for our area (so definitely not impossible but probabilities aren't as high as some other areas).

Edit: The percentages (so far this month) of average Jan rainfall above. It's quite telling considering we're over 3/4 of the way into the month.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 13:00

Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: Golden State


And just like that itís gone.. rainless driest January of all time is a lock


"just like that is gone" is explained in a friendly humourous way in this video link I posted earlier... around end of page 15 on this thread I think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkDvqQKGgDA
have a look at the video. humour is healthy in times of dismality.
ps I do not know if dismality is real word to describe a dismal situation and if it is not a real word I would say this situation deserves it.



🤔😂😂😂😂🤯 classic you tube
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 13:40

Definitely hints of significant monsoonal and related activity affecting most of Qld later in the week. Everything NW of a line from maybe Rocky to Charleville roughly, leaving us in SEQ hoping for a few dregs or activity coming further SE than expected.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 14:00

Yes it was fun while it lasted. At least thunder was heard yesterday. Not a drop on my end of town but.
Posted by: Ahab

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 16:36

Will those storms make it to Brisbane? Heat shouldn't be the problem today.
Posted by: Warloq01

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 17:21

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...G&chartSubmit=R

Thursday for SA. Interactive weather map has turned black at 1700hrs!
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 17:33

Originally Posted By: Warloq01
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...G&chartSubmit=R

Thursday for SA. Interactive weather map has turned black at 1700hrs!

Yep, all-time records may be challenged in a number of locations there tomorrow, if not broken. The SES there have also issued an extreme heat warning.
Posted by: Aussiestormguy

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 18:13

35mm here at Mount Marshall near Allora this afternoon. I arrived at our Farm to start watering our fruit and nut trees an hour before it started to give them some respite from the heat. Now I can sit back this afternoon and enjoy a 10 degree drop in temp with a beer. The best rain we have had here since early December. Awesome! I feel like a pig in mud and it is literally muddy here now.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 18:15

We have a storm!
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 18:18

EC, GFS and CMC still showing a deeper, more elongnated ridge setting up longer-term as opposed to the rubbish, drier ridge parked over us from weak high pressure sitting off NSW for the last month. Yes, no significant rain events yet but I think the positional setup of the ridging needs to change before that can happen.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 19:25

Wow Mark, that is great to hear! Still suffering through no rain here for ages. Still waiting for our first rain of the month. Some of my privacy hedges and trees are dying, or already dead. My yard is a shadow of its former self, when it was the talk of the town, now, it looks like rubbish.
Hope you get more out there Mark! Cheers.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 19:38





Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I know I've said this before but this is another good example of how just because the tropics become active with a monsoonal burst (such as the one expected in the coming days), it doesn't then necessarily mean we get anything down here.

Sometimes it does happen (e.g. strong MJO pulse combined with a cooperative synoptic pattern), but often monsoonal activity doesn't reach anywhere down near our area and we're left with a continuation of hot dry conditions.
The synoptic setup across southern latitudes e.g. a large blocking high still often plays a significant role in helping to determine what weather we get here in combination with any influences coming down from the tropics.

Latest multiweek EC ensemble for the period between about the 4th and 10 Feb has a significant percentage of its scenarios suggesting wetter than normal conditions spreading across a big swath of southern, central and eastern Australia BUT they're a bit closer to 50/50 for our area (so definitely not impossible but probabilities aren't as high as some other areas).


Re the last paragraph in my earlier post above, here's that output - as you can see, probabilities in our local area are closer to 50/50. I haven't delved into what setup's causing that in the model yet though.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 19:58

Looks as though some models are trying to merge Ex gulf TC over NT with CS upper low / trough at the end of their runs. Ridge is still a concern though especially the further south you go.
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 20:11

Surely all this heat around Australia going into the atmosphere? Will lead to some big rains sometime in the not too distant future?
Posted by: Golden State

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 20:58

Originally Posted By: Mega
EC, GFS and CMC still showing a deeper, more elongnated ridge setting up longer-term as opposed to the rubbish, drier ridge parked over us from weak high pressure sitting off NSW for the last month. Yes, no significant rain events yet but I think the positional setup of the ridging needs to change before that can happen.


Why is it so difficult for rain to fall in our region? Feels like thereís this giant permanent force field (the f-ing Ďridgeí) stationed up above which requires a da Vinci code-like combination to remove for but a few fleeting moments of respite
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 21:06

Originally Posted By: Golden State
Originally Posted By: Mega
EC, GFS and CMC still showing a deeper, more elongnated ridge setting up longer-term as opposed to the rubbish, drier ridge parked over us from weak high pressure sitting off NSW for the last month. Yes, no significant rain events yet but I think the positional setup of the ridging needs to change before that can happen.


Why is it so difficult for rain to fall in our region? Feels like thereís this giant permanent force field (the f-ing Ďridgeí) stationed up above which requires a da Vinci code-like combination to remove for but a few fleeting moments of respite


Ken's post a few days back explained it really well. It was a good'n.

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...eat#Post1485683
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 21:28

This weather is [censored]! Bring on winter, it might not rain but at least it won't be stinking hot.
Posted by: AnnerleyX1

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/01/2019 23:08

I'd rather have a bonkers record-breaking heatwave than this stupid ~22-~32C mostly sunny groundhog day we are stuck in. At least then there would be something interesting to watch.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/01/2019 01:09

Distant thunder was heard here this evening from storm activity inland of here.
A low quality pic of a lightning strike I got on my mobile of a storm moving through the Dorrigo area tonight. Very difficult to get the camera to focus on lightning in the distance, so only ended up staying for about three minutes (a ton of mosquitoes also contributing to that decision, lol)

Late tonight both Casino and Lismore ended their dry spells with 0.8mm and 3.0mm falling, respectively.
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Casino during or partly during summer (since 1879):
24 Dec 2018 to 23 Jan 2019 - 31 days
4 Jan 2018 to 28 Jan 2018 - 25 days
19 Jan 1945 to 11 Feb 1945 - 24 days
1 Feb 1926 to 26 Feb 1926 - 26 days
15 Nov 1906 to 12 Dec 1906 - 28 days
22 Dec 1904 to 12 Jan 1905 - 22 days
19 Dec 1902 to 9 Jan 1903 - 22 days


Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Lismore during or partly during summer (since 1884):
25 Dec 2018 to 23 Jan 2019 - 30 days
18 Jan 1952 to 12 Feb 1952 - 26 days
11 Dec 1920 to 3 Jan 1921 - 24 days
19 Jan 1915 to 9 Feb 1915 - 22 days
3 Nov 1913 to 5 Dec 1913 - 33 days
5 Dec 1893 to 1 Jan 1894 - 28 days
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/01/2019 01:15

Lovely pic, Seabreeze.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/01/2019 01:15

This hell summer has certainly generated some frustration alright.Which is why I had to get out of the place yesterday and it really paid dividends.I took a drive out to Casino and used that as a base for my stormchase. It was blistering hot and the area resembles a dust bowl.
Nothing evolved all afternoon until I got half way back to Lismore about 8pm and got treated to a nice lightning storm just south of the area.It tracked right into Lismore where it intensified and saw some explosive CGs near the town.It remained lightning active just off Byron way and when I got back home it was a very noisy number off the coast.Cheered me up anyway.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/01/2019 08:34

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..24 JAN 2019 TIME..0730

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.9C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........67%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 20C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... NE 13kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1014.5Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........20KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........7/8 cloud, haze..

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......32.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....24.2C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...22.4C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....21C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1012.5Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 36kph at 1258
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Haze developed.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/01/2019 13:29

February could be very wet or it could be very hot, although I have the feeling it could be very hot once that blocking high in the Tasman Sea gets a move on.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/01/2019 14:00

Canningvale, about 7 minutes SW of Warwick recorded 40mm with wicked lightning and gusty winds the day before yesterday. That was when I recorded good rumbled and 1 good CG on the west end of town. My friend also states their combineís top blew open due to the wind along with big tree branches down. Very isolated, small cells can really pack a punch! Sky looking somewhat unstable at the moment.....
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/01/2019 14:57

Gee, WATL just keeps looking awful for us, week after week after week! How long will this go on?
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/01/2019 16:05

Good little storm in Kingaroy just now.
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/01/2019 16:20

Yeah that was a nice surprise! Didn't really expect anything today but it belted down for probably no longer than 5 minutes and scored 9.0mm in that time. Not gonna break the drought but at least it means i get an afternoon off watering the garden!
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/01/2019 18:23

Another miss, this time to the west. Looks like we will end up January with barely any rain at just 1mm.
Looks to be the hottest and driest January on record! In my backyard anyway. Next rain chance? Who knows.
Last year we were 300mm below average on rainfall. This year 2019 so far is off to a horrible start!
But I am not telling you guys anything you do not already know.
Although 1 little heavy shower over my place would likely lift my spirits and make me post how awesome the weather has been. Wonít take much to get me excited in times like this.
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/01/2019 18:35

Originally Posted By: LightningGus
Yeah that was a nice surprise! Didn't really expect anything today but it belted down for probably no longer than 5 minutes and scored 9.0mm in that time. Not gonna break the drought but at least it means i get an afternoon off watering the garden!
Yeah, you can thank me for that.
All my bed linen was on the line thanks to a visiting puppy last night ... grr. And I didn't get home at lunchtime to take it off (It'll be right - not like it's gonna rain or anything ....)

Ah well, lucky the lounge is comfy to sleep on, lol.
Certainly came down hard & fast.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/01/2019 19:34

Originally Posted By: Mega
EC, GFS and CMC still showing a deeper, more elongnated ridge setting up longer-term as opposed to the rubbish, drier ridge parked over us from weak high pressure sitting off NSW for the last month. Yes, no significant rain events yet but I think the positional setup of the ridging needs to change before that can happen.


Nope, sorry.
Posted by: PlumbBob

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/01/2019 02:41

Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
It tracked right into Lismore where it intensified and saw some explosive CGs near the town.It remained lightning active just off Byron way and when I got back home it was a very noisy number off the coast.Cheered me up anyway.

Was watching that 'TSorm' from our Balcony for some moments, with all the dry, was like 'sooo close, yet sooo far away, , , prob 40k out off Point Danger at the time, could hear the activity -sounded like a dogs faint under breath smooth growling !
Was a refreshing feeling witnessing it actually cool
Posted by: weatherhobbiest

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/01/2019 05:47

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
One thing I don't understand with this gridlocked groundhog scenario is why high pressure dominates out there in our East coast waters when the central pressure of these highs is quite low ( hovering around 1017hp). Shouldn't take much of a frontal system to move it on surely


It's a good question that I don't know the answer to either. I'm not sure if it requires a major trough to erode the ridge or whether the ridge would have to move on first for a trough to be able to dig in in the first place.

Anyway, the latest EC run looks absolutely dismal with a continuation of much the same. GFS is trying to break ridge down after the 24th but I wouldn't hold my breath considering it keeps putting it off and was originally trying to break it down around the 19th.


A lot of Australia lies under the subtropical high pressure belt that circles these latitudes (due to the sinking air on the polar side of the Hadley Cell) around each hemisphere which predisposes high pressure systems to form more easily and persist for longer in much of these types of latitudes. It also occurs in the northern hemisphere to some extent but the huge landmasses and big mountain barriers tend to disrupt this pattern to a greater extent.

But I suspect that the lower pressures (compared to say those over Tasman Sea waters) over much of inland Australia caused by the intense summer landmass heating have also been helping these highs to be more persistent to their east, despite the Tasman Sea waters being warmer than normal.

I also suspect the jetstream and hemispheric longwave patterns have been another major contributor in encouraging the persistent high pressure in the Tasman Sea.
Of course all these are interconnected to at least some degree one way or the other.


I suspect that the late arrival of the monsoon has contributed to the "intense summer landmass heating" that you mention.
Posted by: weatherhobbiest

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/01/2019 07:33

1 mm of rain here at Sunnybank Hills this morning, taking the month/year total so far to 36 mm.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/01/2019 08:34

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..25 JAN 2019 TIME..0730

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.7C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........74%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 22C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... NW 10kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1015.7Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........20KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........6/8 cloud, haze..

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......32.4C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....23.9C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...22.1C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....20C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1014.1Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..N 32kph at 0954
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Haze.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/01/2019 08:54

Looks like long range forecasts indicate pretty much the same pattern for February? Starting to look that way. If this holds true, it will have rained here only once this entire summer! When I mean rain, I mean significant rain. A bit early to call, but it seems to be heading in that direction. Absolutely uncharted territory.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/01/2019 09:28

This whole place starting to look like a desert compared to NSW coast, virtually all bright green up to the border from Sydney, then brown.
Not good.
Posted by: Pharbelle

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/01/2019 09:30

2mm in the gauge this morning from a quick shower overnight and maybe just a little something more moving in over Fraser Island right now. Fingers crossed it holds to reach here.
Posted by: Nic_Bri

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/01/2019 12:33

Surprisingly there were puddles airside at Archerfield Airport when I got to work today. Assuming there must have been a decent shower here earlier this morning.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/01/2019 12:48









Originally Posted By: weatherhobbiest
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
One thing I don't understand with this gridlocked groundhog scenario is why high pressure dominates out there in our East coast waters when the central pressure of these highs is quite low ( hovering around 1017hp). Shouldn't take much of a frontal system to move it on surely


It's a good question that I don't know the answer to either. I'm not sure if it requires a major trough to erode the ridge or whether the ridge would have to move on first for a trough to be able to dig in in the first place.

Anyway, the latest EC run looks absolutely dismal with a continuation of much the same. GFS is trying to break ridge down after the 24th but I wouldn't hold my breath considering it keeps putting it off and was originally trying to break it down around the 19th.


A lot of Australia lies under the subtropical high pressure belt that circles these latitudes (due to the sinking air on the polar side of the Hadley Cell) around each hemisphere which predisposes high pressure systems to form more easily and persist for longer in much of these types of latitudes. It also occurs in the northern hemisphere to some extent but the huge landmasses and big mountain barriers tend to disrupt this pattern to a greater extent.

But I suspect that the lower pressures (compared to say those over Tasman Sea waters) over much of inland Australia caused by the intense summer landmass heating have also been helping these highs to be more persistent to their east, despite the Tasman Sea waters being warmer than normal.

I also suspect the jetstream and hemispheric longwave patterns have been another major contributor in encouraging the persistent high pressure in the Tasman Sea.
Of course all these are interconnected to at least some degree one way or the other.


I suspect that the late arrival of the monsoon has contributed to the "intense summer landmass heating" that you mention.


Yep I totally agree. And the drier the more traditional heat engine areas like the Pilbara get, the more those areas heat up and that hot air often eventually gets drawn down across regions like VIC, etc.
There's also been a train of thought over the years that the latent heat of condensation released by all the convection associated with an active monsoonal burst up north is related to the timing of severe heatwaves across southern parts of the continent such as what's happening at the moment (if the synoptic setup cooperates).

And yeah Mega, I always hope that it's not a tropical system producing those types of wet signals because they're so hard to predict - if such a signal is totally reliant on a tropical system and that system doesn't form as expected, there goes that signal.

Speaking of which, the higher probabilities of those wet anomalies now look more confined to regions southwest of us.

1st image above = percentage (of average January rainfall) that's fallen so far this month.

2nd and 3rd images above = experimental rainfall anomaly outlooks for the Week 2 and 3 periods respectively, from some of the models run a couple of days ago via the IRI. But as the website says, "Keep in mind that forecasts beyond one or two weeks are still an area of active research, tend to have low skill, and should be treated with caution."
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/01/2019 13:46

AccessG is setting up a lovely fairy story.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/01/2019 19:15

The 2 upper lows at 500hpa on those charts look bizarre.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/01/2019 19:42

Originally Posted By: Steve O
The 2 upper lows at 500hpa on those charts look bizarre.


EC trying to merge the whole lot over NQLD on last day of the run. C'mon boy!
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/01/2019 19:46

A surprise brief, moderate shower moved over us about an hour and a half ago. Only provided 1.5mm, but the smell of rain was nice.
Posted by: Warloq01

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/01/2019 21:54

Humid AF on the Gold Coast this evening!
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/01/2019 22:55

There is a chance of places recording their lowest January rainfall on record along the NSW north coast. Little to very little rain is forecast over these final days of January.

Port Macquarie (1841-1852, 1871-present) (Port Macquarie Airport + Port Macquarie Hill St)
Month to date: 8.4mm (Currently it would rank as the 2nd driest on record, behind 1882)
Record Low for Jan: 5.7mm (1882)

Kempsey (1882-present) (Kempsey Airport + Kempsey Wide St)
Month to date: 15.0mm (Currently it would rank as the 4th driest on record, behind 1888, 1908 & 1900)
Record Low for Jan: 7.6mm (1900)

Smoky Cape (1939-present) (Smoky Cape Lighthouse)
Month to date: 8.2mm (Currently it would rank as the driest on record)
Record Low for Jan: 15.0mm (1942)

Coffs Harbour (1900-present) (Coffs Harbour Airport + Coffs Harbour Meteorological Office + Coffs Harbour)
Month to date: 0.8mm (Currently it would rank as the driest on record)
Record Low for Jan: 11.8mm (1994)

Grafton (1867, 1872-present) (Grafton Research Station + Grafton Olympic Pool + Grafton City Council)
Month to date: 7.0mm (Currently it would rank as the driest on record)
Record Low for Jan: 8.6mm (1966)

Yamba (1878-present) (Yamba Pilot Station)
Month to date: 2.0mm (Currently it would rank as the driest on record)
Record Low for Jan: 13.1mm (1966)

Casino (1858-1862, 1879-present) (Casino Airport AWS + Casino Airport)
Month to date: 1.0mm (Currently it would rank as the driest on record)
Record Low for Jan: 4.9mm (1884)

Lismore (1884-present) (Lismore Airport + Lismore Centre St)
Month to date: 3.2mm (Currently it would rank as the driest on record)
Record Low for Jan: 12.0mm (2003)

Ballina (1893-present) (Ballina Airport + Ballina Crowley Village)
Month to date: 2.4mm (Currently it would rank as the driest on record)
Record Low for Jan: 16.0mm (1932)

Byron Bay (1893-present) (Cape Byron AWS + Cape Byron Lighthouse + Byron Bay Jacaranda Dr)
Month to date: 1.8mm (Currently it would rank as the driest on record)
Record Low for Jan: 18.0mm (1897)
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/01/2019 07:48

Those posts of your's Seabreeze are fascinating and disturbing as well. I suppose because of being an ex- Lismorite I take more interest in that area. That event in December that gave heavy falls to parts of the Downs and the Southern parts of Northern rivers produced much less even in close by areas. When the rainfall maps are produced in February and the three-month figures do not include the very wet October, I wonder if the Bright red for Lowest on record(rainfall deciles) for that 3 months, gets right to the coast.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/01/2019 08:40

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..26 JAN 2019 TIME..0730

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......24.2C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........87%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 22C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... SE 4kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1014.8Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........25KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........7/8 cloud, showers in past hour.
RAIN SINCE 0900 FRIDAY....0.8mm ( First since 8th Jan )

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......32.9C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....23.3C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...22.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....20C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1014.1Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..N 32kph at 0954
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Haze, early morning showers..
Posted by: Golden State

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/01/2019 11:46

There.Is.No.End.In.Sight
Posted by: Timbuck

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/01/2019 13:17

Originally Posted By: Golden State
There.Is.No.End.In.Sight


And when does break , unfortunately it will probably be 1000mm in a night so to speak. It wonít be nice gradual soaking rain for a couple of weeks which is what everyone east and west of the divide would prefer.

We will wait and see over the coming month or so. At least the monsoon has started to get a little bit of activity.

Cheers

Tim
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/01/2019 13:28

One of the best looking Donut hole ever on the 8 day WATL atm. Frightening.
No rain for Feb either. The rain gods have run away!
Posted by: KevD

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/01/2019 13:55

Thanks for the data Seabreeze, going to use the Coffs info on a Facebook post, will credit to you. Amazing that they have the chance to come in with less than 1mm for JANUARY!
Posted by: Golden State

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/01/2019 14:43

Canít decide if seeing this is encouraging or annoying

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/total/75/seasonal/0
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/01/2019 14:58

Originally Posted By: Golden State
Canít decide if seeing this is encouraging or annoying

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/total/75/seasonal/0


Garbage:

Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/01/2019 19:42

Latest GFS run shows more onshore shower activity for the SE coast during the first week of February and beyond. I know this is only 1 run, but if this eventuates, we might catch a break from the heat out here on the Downs. Areas closer to the coast will soak up a little liquid sunshine. Hereís hoping.
Posted by: planet x

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/01/2019 08:15

Ahh Golden State.
There is ALWAYS an end in sight.
Nothing lasts forever.
After this we will probably have enormous floods - just to even it all up smile
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/01/2019 08:27

Originally Posted By: nibiru
Ahh Golden State.
There is ALWAYS an end in sight.
Nothing lasts forever.
After this we will probably have enormous floods - just to even it all up smile



Be nice to have a happy medium though, nobody wants either. One areas bust is another area's bonanza I have a mate down on the south coast at Ulladulla he says he's never seen a summer with so many thunderstorms.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/01/2019 08:30





Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Be nice to have a happy medium though, nobody wants either. One areas bust is another area's bonanza I have a mate down on the south coast at Ulladulla he says he's never seen a summer with so many thunderstorms.


The day after day of thunderstorm activity in southeastern and central NSW shows up well in the latest Jan rainfall percentage analysis above.

A number of sites in our region are still on track to have the lowest Jan rainfall on record.

And yep I agree, it always seems to end up breaking in a sudden big deluge or flood eventually.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/01/2019 08:37

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..27 JAN 2019 TIME..0735

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.4C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........68%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 20C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... NW 14kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1014.1Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........35KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........1/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900 SATURDAY....0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......32.2C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....21.7C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....20C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1013.3Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 34kph at 1448
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... No significant weather.
Posted by: whynot

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/01/2019 09:06

One the positive side, this spell of sunny weather is an absolute boon for the tourist operators on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts. Vacuuming all of the spare cash from tourist pockets is important to the SEQ economy. It also reinforce the impression of "the Sunshine State" (rightly or wrongly) with the visitors. Hopefully, create repeat business. But, it would be nice to get a good drink of rain ...
Posted by: spud

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/01/2019 09:29

Another small benefit (interest) of this constant north east/easterly flow is the daily development of three horizontal convective rolls (vortices) over SE Qld. One from Sandy Cape. One from Cape Moreton (possibly Mt Tempest) and one from Point Lookout. Each form a line of small cumulus or strato cumulus tatters that stream southwest for several miles, usually in afternoons.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/01/2019 11:38

Originally Posted By: whynot
One the positive side, this spell of sunny weather is an absolute boon for the tourist operators on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts. Vacuuming all of the spare cash from tourist pockets is important to the SEQ economy. It also reinforce the impression of "the Sunshine State" (rightly or wrongly) with the visitors. Hopefully, create repeat business. But, it would be nice to get a good drink of rain ...


Totally agree as I work in the car rental industry, we have had our busiest January since I moved up here and started work 4 years ago. People are making last minute bookings knowing the weather has been fine all month. Theme parks are bursting at the seems especially wet n wild .
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/01/2019 12:50

Looks like an increase in coastal shower activity in the coming days, could be just enough to save a few of the coastal stations from their driest January record. Unfortunate since this month deserves to go down in the record books tbh.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/01/2019 13:08

Tewantin is on 6mm. 7mm is the record.
Maroochydore is on 0.4mm. 12mm is the record
Beerburrum is on 5.8mm. 13.4mm is the record
Redcliffe should beat theirs easily - they're on 16.2mm and their driest is 47mm
Brisbane Airport is on 2mm. 9.4mm is the record
Gold Coast Seaway is on 2.6mm. 5.2mm is the record
Coolangatta is on 3.8mm. 11.4mm is the record

Originally Posted By: Mega 6th Jan
EC - no sign of ridge breaking up to the 16th.
GFS - no sign of ridge breaking until past the 22nd.

Are we gonna break some records here?

Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/01/2019 13:32

Please note, I gathered that data directly from WZ.
Posted by: pabloako

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/01/2019 16:05

Originally Posted By: whynot
One the positive side, this spell of sunny weather is an absolute boon for the tourist operators on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts. ...


Not to mention water trucking businesses in this area. The Samford and Dayboro Water Carriers were driving 15+ hour days in the winter/dry season and I am now starting to see them on the roads again carrying water up and down the hill.

17 days since the last drop of rain here and that was only a small shower. My takes are now down to 60%, so I am fine for a while yet though.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/01/2019 16:42

A long drive down to Coorabell(in the hills NW of Byron Bay) today to stay for a week. Went via Warwick, Killarney, Woodenbong, Kyogle, Lismore. Incredibly dry,some areas really bad. Looking at Cape Byron and brown grass seemingly to the ocean. A fierce but warm seabreeze blowing.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/01/2019 19:32

Great research 'seabreeze' and 'MEGA'.
I have posted your findings on my blog.'
---
Just looking at the fabulous sat pic tonight. Lots of cloud from active monsoon and that shear from the NW that's been 'waterfalling' for many days looks particularly impressive tonight. The usual storms around NSW mid c oast and hinterland regions. And l am left contemplating how we have managed to escape all that wet cloudy stuff in that small coastal corridor of Nth NSW and sth east qld. Quite amazing really.
Posted by: weatherhobbiest

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/01/2019 20:37

Originally Posted By: Mega
Tewantin is on 6mm. 7mm is the record.
Maroochydore is on 0.4mm. 12mm is the record
Beerburrum is on 5.8mm. 13.4mm is the record
Redcliffe should beat theirs easily - they're on 16.2mm and their driest is 47mm
Brisbane Airport is on 2mm. 9.4mm is the record
Gold Coast Seaway is on 2.6mm. 5.2mm is the record
Coolangatta is on 3.8mm. 11.4mm is the record

Originally Posted By: Mega 6th Jan
EC - no sign of ridge breaking up to the 16th.
GFS - no sign of ridge breaking until past the 22nd.

Are we gonna break some records here?


I thought we we dry here in Sunnybank Hills with 36 mm, but it looks like we've been very lucky (due to a thunderstorm) in comparison with many places around south east Queensland.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 28/01/2019 08:17

January with pretty much no rain is starting to bite on the sunshine coast. But there are still memories of the good rains in December. Going on my run this morning I could see many areas of grass have been going rapidly dry, but that there is quite some variation in grass condition. Shade, local ridge vs local hollow, foot traffic, soil quality and recent mowing all making quite a difference to grass condition. The best areas still retain moisture from the December rains and are still quite lush and green, and the worst areas only remember the last few weeks of basically zero rain and are pretty much dead. Ironically the drought tolerant grasses are struggling as they are mostly growing in the poorer areas and the water loving grasses doing mostly pretty well.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 28/01/2019 08:59

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..28 JAN 2019 TIME..0755

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.4C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........75%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... W 1kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1015.7Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........4/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900 SUNDAY...0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......32.1C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....21.1C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...20.8C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....19C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1013.7Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 40kph at 1241
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... No significant weather.
Posted by: james1977

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 28/01/2019 09:09

With the current conditions, the diets growing exceptionally well. Never seen my back yard so [censored]
Posted by: james1977

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 28/01/2019 10:26

Dirt not diet think my phone might be trying to say something 😂😂
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 28/01/2019 11:28

Wynnum Creek halfway through the wet season.

The local record for January will not be broken however - as I reported this a while back that nearby Manly railway station with records back to 1898 only had 1.2mm in 2018, the next lowest 2.9mm in 2003. Already this January the Manly rain is 6 times last year - at 7.2mm.

Posted by: Vinnie

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 28/01/2019 12:11

So according to the BOM we won't see any decent rains above median until after April ? Even then it is the dry time of the year then so we wait until next summer?

Or something happens in the next month or two and we all get a massive dump of rain from an unexpected rain event ?
Posted by: Timbuck

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 28/01/2019 12:27


Here is one for people to work out from historical data , How many long dry periods or droughts are broken by big rain eventís or floods ? Compared to a change back to normal or average rain ??

Cheers

Tim
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 28/01/2019 12:28












Originally Posted By: Vinnie
So according to the BOM we won't see any decent rains above median until after April ? Even then it is the dry time of the year then so we wait until next summer?

It doesn't mean that at all.
It simply shows what the likelihood is of total rainfall accumulated over that outlook's time period being lower or higher than what the long term median rainfall is for that time period. So for example, if you get a decent rain event or two later on in that period but the rainfall amounts aren't enough to offset the lack of rainfall leading up to them, the total rainfall will still be below median.

Whether we get any decent rain events at all or not during that period is something we'll have to wait and see.

In this region, rain events don't always suddenly stop as soon as April's over.

Some vegetation/moisture stress/drought satellite analyses above in the week leading up to last Monday.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 28/01/2019 14:00

Looks like we finally see some movement in the mid-lats again from later this week after a month of blocking highs between the NSW coast and NZ. Only real positive that I can see atm.
Posted by: Tuntable Crook

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 28/01/2019 16:40

Getting desperate around The Channon. According to BoM, only three other recorded years had a Nov-Dec total under 100mm (1928/'29/'41), and in those years, the lowest following January rainfall was 65.3 mm (Jan '42) (Jan '29 and '30 were 270.8 and 257.0mm respectively). Nov-Dec 2018 delivered 86.2mm in total, and there has been no rainfall recorded so far in 2019. For context, the January median is 137.5mm, and the sum of Nov-Dec medians is 231.3mm.
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 28/01/2019 17:58

Where is the channon?
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 28/01/2019 18:12

Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Where is the channon?


Northern NSW, near Lismore
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 28/01/2019 18:32

So it looks like the current never ending high is going to be replaced by a new shiny high. Wow - at least we get a SE for a few days. Hopefully this high doesn't take up residence in the same place.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 28/01/2019 18:36

In the longer-term, while the lower-levels remain ridgy (though it's a better ridge than the crap we've had for the past month), the uppers look like becoming more active again with upper troughs popping up all over the shop. A model's worst nightmare but a lot more interesting than the tiresome upper-level ridge.

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
So it looks like the current never ending high is going to be replaced by a new shiny high. Wow - at least we get a SE for a few days. Hopefully this high doesn't take up residence in the same place.


Looks like the pattern becomes much more mobile in the coming week as opposed to one weak high cell replacing another in the west Tasman Sea.
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 28/01/2019 19:07

Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Where is the channon?


Northern NSW, near Lismore
Thanks
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 28/01/2019 19:15

Good news mate! Keep up the good work with your informative posts.
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 28/01/2019 19:36

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Good news mate! Keep up the good work with your informative posts.
WTF frown
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 28/01/2019 20:37

EC looks particularly interesting in it's latest run with the monsoonal low loitering around the north/GOC then turning back toward eastern QLD. The low is pretty broad so a more widespread area should be affected by rain/storms. Feels like the patterns are shifting looking at the model runs.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 28/01/2019 22:11

I suppose droughts are very boring especially with all the other weather going on. As I posted about our drive on Sunday. The complete dryness of the upper Clarence and Richmond river catchments, The Kyogle area, even right to Lismore looks awfull. Even I can figue out that there is going to be a mass of record low rainfalls in southern QLD and Northern NSW for Jan and the last three months. I really hope that the optimism expressed by those in the CD thread and in your post LRHome comes about. Sorry about these boring posts and any spelling mistakes.
Cheers
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 28/01/2019 22:34

AccessG is back to its Fairy Story, 7 Feb with a good looking depression moving down the coast.
One can only dream of such!
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 28/01/2019 23:43

Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
I suppose droughts are very boring especially with all the other weather going on. As I posted about our drive on Sunday. The complete dryness of the upper Clarence and Richmond river catchments, The Kyogle area, even right to Lismore looks awfull. Even I can figue out that there is going to be a mass of record low rainfalls in southern QLD and Northern NSW for Jan and the last three months. I really hope that the optimism expressed by those in the CD thread and in your post LRHome comes about. Sorry about these boring posts and any spelling mistakes.
Cheers


Hi Pete,

I'm not sure about being optimistic just yet...just pointing out some of the changes I'm seeing to the broadscale patterns compared to late Dec/Jan. Whether anything will come of it here in SEQ, I don't think anyone knows the answer to that question and they'd be lying if they said they did.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 00:02

Originally Posted By: KevD
Thanks for the data Seabreeze, going to use the Coffs info on a Facebook post, will credit to you. Amazing that they have the chance to come in with less than 1mm for JANUARY!
Yeah, pretty amazing that Coffs looks likely to not even record a millimetre for January. Thankfully, December was kind with 200mm at Coffs, and it hasn't been back-to-back very dry summer months like in the far NE corner (e.g. Lismore, Ballina).

A narrow temperature range at Coffs this month. Coldest maximum has been 27.1įC and the highest maximum has been 32.4įC. Very Groundhog Day.

Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Good news mate! Keep up the good work with your informative posts.
WTF frown
Snapper was replying to Mega. :-)


I notice South West Rocks has been added to the 7-Day forecast map (so now get a forecast page of our own: http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/south-west-rocks.shtml). We were also added to the Marine forecast map. We're going up in the world! wink
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 03:05

Thanks Mega, the outlook looks better than the past month. Also thanks Seabreeze and Ken for your contribitions as well.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 08:31

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..29 JAN 2019 TIME..0730

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.7C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........68%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 20C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... E 13kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1016.4Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........5/8 cloud, increasing.
RAIN SINCE 0900 MONDAY...Trace

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......32.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....24.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...22.3C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....20C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1015.5Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 34kph at 1730
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Overnight shower.

Going bush for a while.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 08:53

Hogs day S.E. Qld 😡 Was lucky to be down in Sydney over the weekend and saw a nice evening storm with some associated water falling from the sky. Funnily enough they're all complaining about how hot and dry it's been down there !!
That High that's almost a permanent resident of New Zealand now must be causing a drought over there too but haven't heard anything with regard to that in the News.
Posted by: james1977

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 09:00

Had a surprising 1.5mms last night in a brief few showers. One even woke me up
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 09:06

yeah we had a short sharp shower also last night , maybe 1mm if that. I didnt check.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 10:26

For Sunshine Coast Airport, temp stats for January so far:

Coolest max: 29.1
Highest max: 30.4

Seems unusually consistent. Compare to Jan 2018, coolest max of 27.2, and highest of 36.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 10:28

Tewantin is on 6mm. 7mm is the record.

Ended up with 2.8mm overnight.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 10:40

New Zealand is experiencing heatwave conditions at the moment.
Posted by: james1977

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 10:59


Originally Posted By: BIG T
yeah we had a short sharp shower also last night , maybe 1mm if that. I didnt check.

Only reason I know is my automatic weather station was flashing 1.5mm other than that yeah I wouldnít of checked either
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 16:43





All I can say is, thank god for other hobbies/passions laugh
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 17:39

Latest GFS run the best one so far, heavy falls extending further south. Mt. Isa and Cloncurry in the 150-200mm range. Up to 200mm near Longreach. Huge if it came off, inland sea potential.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 17:45

Well atleast we wont be hearing about how dry it is in Townsville for awhile.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 18:05

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato




All I can say is, thank god for other hobbies/passions laugh


Holy crap, haha. Latest EC extends a broad trough down to about the Capricornia but nothing of interest yet for SEQ. I know it's dry down here but it'll be great to see flooding rains (maybe not to the extent of that chart, lol) through the top half of drought stricken QLD if it comes off. I think it's important to remember that QLD is a big state and we aren't the only region suffering from the drought.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 18:18

Has the Gold Coast region just got a easterly change of some sorts? seems a lot of cloud has come off the ocean, yet the surface chart remains unchanged.
Posted by: spud

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 18:44

Gleno71, on the SAT PIC loops you can see bands of cumulus/stratocumulus travelling west towards us from the Coral Sea. I gather they are caused by little troughs embedded in the easterlies. The one that came onto the coast last night bent the winds from NNE along the coast to ENE and gave some weak showers.
The troughs are too small to see on a synoptic chart but are picked up on the models and show up reasonably well on Nullschool.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 18:56

Originally Posted By: divho
Gleno71, on the SAT PIC loops you can see bands of cumulus/stratocumulus travelling west towards us from the Coral Sea. I gather they are caused by little troughs embedded in the easterlies. The one that came onto the coast last night bent the winds from NNE along the coast to ENE and gave some weak showers.
The troughs are too small to see on a synoptic chart but are picked up on the models and show up reasonably well on Nullschool.



Thanks for the info but I cant see any sign of a trough if any, the BOM or Ken hasn't mentioned it. But yes I noticed a similar thing happened this time yesterday, though no where near as much cloud compared to today. The uppers seem to be stable
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 19:06

Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: divho
Gleno71, on the SAT PIC loops you can see bands of cumulus/stratocumulus travelling west towards us from the Coral Sea. I gather they are caused by little troughs embedded in the easterlies. The one that came onto the coast last night bent the winds from NNE along the coast to ENE and gave some weak showers.
The troughs are too small to see on a synoptic chart but are picked up on the models and show up reasonably well on Nullschool.



Thanks for the info but I cant see any sign of a trough if any, the BOM or Ken hasn't mentioned it. But yes I noticed a similar thing happened this time yesterday, though no where near as much cloud compared to today. The uppers seem to be stable


Soundings reveal reasonable moisture in the NEílies atm trapped under a strong temperature inversion around 6000 to 7000ft. This is a classic situation for lower level cloud to form near the coast under the inversion where the somewhat steep lapse rates under the inversion encourages moist air to initially rise and form clouds which then get trapped under the inversion and canít grow any taller so they start spreading out.
Yesterday there was so such inversion and the air in the lower levels was much drier.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 19:13

Originally Posted By: gleno71
Has the Gold Coast region just got a easterly change of some sorts? seems a lot of cloud has come off the ocean, yet the surface chart remains unchanged.


Surface charts remain unchanged compared to when, exactly?
Posted by: spud

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 19:13

The little troughs are small waves embedded in the easterly flow.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 19:25

Originally Posted By: divho
The little troughs are small waves embedded in the easterly flow.


I'm not sure if he's referring to the waves of cloud coming in from the ocean along the ridge or the convective 'daytime' build-up that Ken is referring to.

Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 19:26

Was a small bush fire west of here this arv almost looked pyro-cumulus and inversion very evident.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 20:00

Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: divho
The little troughs are small waves embedded in the easterly flow.


I'm not sure if he's referring to the waves of cloud coming in from the ocean along the ridge or the convective 'daytime' build-up that Ken is referring to.


One way or another it's nothing but crud.Bring on something of significance.
Access g has something of interest in 9 to 10 days time but I'm sure that will change, hopefully not.
Posted by: Wight

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 20:09

Picked up just over 8mm last night from showers. Fairly heavy a couple of times. It was nice to hear rain on the roof for a change.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 29/01/2019 22:26

Rain is currently falling on our tin roof, lovely smell in the air and a sound I havenít heard in a long time....doubt itís enough to register in the guage though, but great to hear and smell it once again
Posted by: shanebat

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 00:12

Latest Run of AccessG looks nicer than it has for some time.
Posted by: shanebat

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 07:24

Probably just dreaming!
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 08:28







Originally Posted By: Mega
Holy crap, haha. Latest EC extends a broad trough down to about the Capricornia but nothing of interest yet for SEQ. I know it's dry down here but it'll be great to see flooding rains (maybe not to the extent of that chart, lol) through the top half of drought stricken QLD if it comes off. I think it's important to remember that QLD is a big state and we aren't the only region suffering from the drought.


Yep exactly. The only areas south of the tropics that have done well so far this month for the most part are inland southeastern NSW and some small pockets of far southwest WA, etc (see 2nd image).

Parts of Tasmania are still ravaged by ongoing large out-of-control bushfires (some of the fire photos emerging from there are remarkable) so they, among many areas, need rain as well.

Latest EC still confines the monsoonal activity to the tropics within its 10-day timeframe.... it still looks like SE QLD will probably get an additional increase in showers from the weekend through next week (although not as a direct result of the monsoonal activity).
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 11:01

When I look at the Drought map of Qld I see that Townsvile Cairns, Mt Isa, Mackay and someother areas of the northern tropics are not even drought declared. Of course that changes coming futher south and those areas are going to get great rain. But then you have southern disricts, the Ballone Maranoa,Goondiwindi Toowwoomba, Southern Downs Somerset, South Burnett and Lockyer Valley that are drought declared and nothing on the horizon.
Posted by: Ahab

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 12:14

Lots of scattered showers appearing on the radar. Fingers crossed for a wet afternoon.
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 13:50

The BOM 10 day chart has looked so good the last 2 days with an oswald type low hugging the coast nearly to SE QLD whilst giving SE QLD quite a bit of rain from next week - Wed on. But it is a long way out but it is so refreshing to see some kind of color finally filling in the SE. Watch this, but can't confirm anything til Sunday as too far out.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 13:53




The latest multimodel accumulating precip graph for Brisbane clearly shows ACCESS-G (purple) currently going it alone with the system pushing south and the accompanying heavy rain.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 16:16

AccessG has been dreaming over this fairy story last few days, next runs be interesting to see if it holds. Is it even possible for it to happen given that damn high is still there?
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 17:12

Yeah I know - and i was thinking the same thing, maybe that i am so desperate to see this dry finnish i am seeing mirages on the weather zone with cyclones hitting us every week and 2 weekly 1890 floods smile
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 17:37

Usually its GFS that has these crazy dreams but AccessG? Hmmm.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 17:41

It is looking like Jan 2019 will go down in history as:
- Brisbane and broader SEQ / WBB / NE NSW struggling to measure much rainfall in millimetres.
- Townsville and surrounding NQ coastal measuring rainfall in metres
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 18:07

Big front sweeping across the country at the end of EC's run but still somehow not enough to influence the low's movement. Will have a closer look later.
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 18:33

Hey does anyone here know why the BOM is forecasting 15-100mm of rain for next Wednesday in Yeppoon and 2 -60mm in Rockhampton?

It's been very dry here this month.

Just wondering what sort of weather situation/system ?
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 18:39

Originally Posted By: Mega
Big front sweeping across the country at the end of EC's run but still somehow not enough to influence the low's movement. Will have a closer look later.


Nevermind. Upon closer inspection, it is getting ready to turn at +240 hrs. Still, that's a lifetime away and many things would need to come together to bring it this far south.
Posted by: james1977

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 18:52

Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Mega
Big front sweeping across the country at the end of EC's run but still somehow not enough to influence the low's movement. Will have a closer look later.


Nevermind. Upon closer inspection, it is getting ready to turn at +240 hrs. Still, that's a lifetime away and many things would need to come together to bring it this far south.


Wishful thinking
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 19:01




ACCESS-G still going out on a limb and sticking to its guns for that heavy rain (within the 10-day timeframe) as opposed to the other models with the latest 00z runs above.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 19:07

UKMET has it a smidgen north of the Whitsundays next Tuesday morning for what it's worth.
Posted by: james1977

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 19:10

Haha crazy Dave at it again
From Daveís weather on fb..
BREAKING NEWS

South East Queensland looks like your drought could be over with a possible system or tropical cyclone to track down the coast more details coming soon
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 19:10

UK and ACCESS-G often tend to be similar especially with tropical systems... not surprising though considering the latter is essentially based on the former albeit modified for Australia.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 19:31

EC going for almost another two metres of rain over Townsville and the rest of N QLD over the next week.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 20:00

ACCESS G has the ridge contracting south to latitude 25s on Tuesday 5th feb ( t+156 hrs)
I think what happened with the last TC that couldn't transition south due to ridging , was that we had a few drips from the shear travelling south down the coast.
However from the comments re : ACCg longer range you 'guys are muting a transition further south. Look forward to the outcome.
shear currently heading inland qld/nsw tonight
I think that some of the cloud we have now is from that shear


http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 20:02

Is there such thing as a cut off tropical low.. it just sits up there for days, will be interesting to see how the catchments handle all that rain and hoping it can penetrate further inland for western QLD but yet there's that big hole in the WATL chart that still remains.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 20:09

Livio on channel 7 just now hinted that a low 'could' track down the coast next week!!
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 20:20

Just like this!
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 20:23

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Livio on channel 7 just now hinted that a low 'could' track down the coast next week!!


I expect better from Livio if that's really what he said. Such an outcome shouldn't even be implied this far out, imo.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 20:25

Good grief, imagine the media running with that scenario, armageddon for SEQ LOL
I'm glad its only an AccessG dream....
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 20:31

As very unlikely as it is at this range, itís an outcome weíve seen a few times since Iíve been watching this forum! A low near the gulf is something to keep an eye on....
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 20:45

Words escape me . . . a closer look as I know Blowin beat me to the punch. I know Access G is an outlier, but it's been right before.

Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 20:49

If Livio can't have crack who can?
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 20:52

Won't happen.. if there were other similar scenarios maybe... just look at the graph above middle ground is f all.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 20:53

Wow I hope an eye wall isnít the next donut hole Inclement!
Plenty of >25 degree fuel in the ocean.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 20:55

Isnt it great to look at something at last.
Oswald mk2?
Dreaming of course ;-)
Thats a lot of fuel in them waterz Blowin'.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 20:57

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato



ACCESS-G still going out on a limb and sticking to its guns for that heavy rain (within the 10-day timeframe) as opposed to the other models with the latest 00z runs above.


Itíll be interesting to see what happens. i.e. whether itíll be ACCESS-G (purple), the other models, or somewhere in between (which on average tends to be the most skillful).
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 21:00

True Ken but the hot waters off the coast are primed to build a beastie if it comes along as a kitten.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 21:01

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato



ACCESS-G still going out on a limb and sticking to its guns for that heavy rain (within the 10-day timeframe) as opposed to the other models with the latest 00z runs above.


Itíll be interesting to see what happens. i.e. whether itíll be ACCESS-G (purple), the other models, or somewhere in between (which on average tends to be the most skillful).


Across the Cape and out to sea is more likely than it coming down here.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 21:04

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
True Ken but the hot waters off the coast are primed to build a beastie if it comes along as a kitten.

Yep but whether it stays an intense tropical system also depends on shear (which is about the most critical factor)... although itís not as important if you just want it as a non-TC system. It also depends on the steering influences (itís not much use to us if it gets steered away to the SE towards the graveyard).
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 21:10

So, the same ol' shear & steer. Cheers Ken.
Be interesting watchin' next few days.
Nice to dream of course.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 21:20

It was hot and dry in the lead up to Oswald, perhaps ACCESS G is on to something big.
Posted by: james1977

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 21:43

Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
It was hot and dry in the lead up to Oswald, perhaps ACCESS G is on to something big.


Well every dry spell is ended with a wet one. Lol
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 21:47

Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
It was hot and dry in the lead up to Oswald, perhaps ACCESS G is on to something big.


It really doesn't matter what the weather conditions were prior to any big weather event. Whether it was hot, dry, cold or wet. it really depends on that current setup and whether the current weather setup is right for it to happen.

As far as I know as long as this low is still hanging around the gulf/north QLD it wouldn't take much for it to suddenly move south/south-east as random shortwave troughs can unexpectedly pass through without being forecast.

So for now I will continue to watch in awe as this phenomenal rain event continue to deluge north QLD for the coming week
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 22:00

As long as we get a good drink I'm happy.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 22:26

Don't even bother getting excited. We all fell for that before Christmas and the low didn't even come close. Access-G is a massive outlier. 5% chance of happening.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 23:14

Once WATL starts moving I'll get interested.
ATM its just a fairy tale.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 30/01/2019 23:28

We have March as well which is usually our wettest month.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 08:22

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Don't even bother getting excited. We all fell for that before Christmas and the low didn't even come close. Access-G is a massive outlier. 5% chance of happening.

Yep , think it's been put there as a bad joke.Better off just looking at the BOM's 4 day maps and that's it.The further you look ahead in hope the more despair it generates.Same old pattern week in week out ridge ridge ridge
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 08:46

EC now forecasting over 2 metres of rain for N QLD, focused near Townsville, over the next week or so.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 09:08

Not fair, we want some tooo.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 09:17

This happened in 2007 when everywhere else got good rain but south east Queensland didn't get anything.
Posted by: RC

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 10:42

I dunno, I do not want the south east corner to get much rain, when you get 10mm all we get 24 hours a day on the new backed up by every politician in sight is how the south east corner must prepare for floods.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 10:50

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
EC now forecasting over 2 metres of rain for N QLD, focused near Townsville, over the next week or so.


Sorry, NF, but where do you get 2 metres from this?

These totals do not add up to 2000mm. However, GFS is closer to a metre.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 10:58

Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
EC now forecasting over 2 metres of rain for N QLD, focused near Townsville, over the next week or so.


Sorry, NF, but where do you get 2 metres from this?

These totals do not add up to 2000mm. However, GFS is closer to a metre.


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/1468-e-158-s/accumulated-precipitation/20190209-1200z.html
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 14:29

Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
EC now forecasting over 2 metres of rain for N QLD, focused near Townsville, over the next week or so.


Sorry, NF, but where do you get 2 metres from this?

These totals do not add up to 2000mm. However, GFS is closer to a metre.


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/1468-e-158-s/accumulated-precipitation/20190209-1200z.html



I stand corrected, my source is the Norwegian Meteorological Institute which I always believed was based on the ECMWF forecast, as you can see from the NMI forecast for Townsville it's nowhere near 2000mm.
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 14:40

Considering 400-500mm has already fallen and another 1000-1500mm is possible, that would push it toward 2000mm. Either the model mixed the totals by calculating the previous days or there's a glitch
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 15:25

I have double checked to make sure this is the right thread. The latest rainfall deciles, anomalies etc are being updated. Stunning( in a really bad way) for Southern Qld and Nothern border of Nsw.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 15:27







And above are the preliminary rainfall deciles for the last three months and this month. Not surprising really.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 15:31

Looks like I posted seconds before you Ken. Was hoping you or somebody would put those charts up.
Cheers
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 15:33

I thought and was expecting that SEQ was looking like a record dry January. But that map is actually worse than I had anticipated particularly for the regional extent of dry in SEQ as far up as central Qld and down into NE NSW.
Let's hope that the natural variations do continue (wets do come after the dry periods) and this does not become a more permanent trend.
Posted by: Tuntable Crook

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 15:51

0.0mm for The Channon in January 2019, and the driest Nov-Jan period on record, by a long way, at 86.2mm (previous driest Nov-Jan: 140.4mm (1941-42)). For those interested in doughnut holes and the location of The Channon, check out the NSW January 'rainfall totals' map. The Channon is more or less in the crispy white centre of the Far North Coast doughnut hole:

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...d=month&area=ns
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 17:11

Yup, 2.5mm total here in my backyard. Driest on record. February does not look much better at the moment either for the Southern Downs area. We were 300mm below average rainfall for 2018. We are off to a horrible start to 2019!
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 17:13

Check out the forecast for Cardwell! Not fair really.

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cardwell.shtml
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 17:25

FFS, thats dreamland totals. Absolutely amazin.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 18:02

Forecast changed at 4:30. Was up to 300mm in one day then 250 the next.
Amazin.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 18:05

Re-curve to the E/SE at the end of EC's latest run, same with GFS. Problem is, as I've said before, it could easily wind up out to sea way before reaching our latitudes. We need a lot of luck to go our way with this one.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 18:20

AccessG is holding on to that forecast depression like a dog on a bone.
Geeee, dreamin'.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 19:33

Re: medium range ACCESS g.that' IW 'posted .
Of note is that ACC G has the ridge finally moving out to the Tasman and allows longwave troughing along the east coast.
The TS /TC is wedged / squeezed between 2 big Highs with very meridonal walls.
Of note as well is that the bigger rainfall signal is largely off shore when the TS gets to SEQ ( 10th FEB ) That's only 10 days away .
of course if the low comes down a bit further inland that would be worse.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 19:53

Would love to see that wretched high squeezed into oblivion.EC has it looking a crippled pathetic sight on the same day 10th Feb.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 19:55

EC can get stuffed!
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 20:32

Hahaha nah I was referring to the High looking crippled Elf but yeah the tropical Low doesn't look much better either by comparison to the other models but hey , still a long way out.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 20:33

The strong southerly that's about to hit Sydney wont even make it up here, it washes out at Coffs Harbour, although the winds do slightly shift back to the SE, so maybe i'm reading it wrong?
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 20:38

We seem to be in a period of extraordinarily stressed weather.
The dry we have been in around a wide SE Qld to NE NSW for the last month, normally our wettest season.
Rain and floods in N Qld.
Cold in the US.....
goes on .... I haven't yet looked at full global state.... but nonetheless a lot of places well deviated from normal.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 20:42

For my view in the forecasting models it is currently in a mode of considerable speculation but nonetheless caution in anything beyond 5 days from now. If something is locally relevant and of concern maybe 3 days. I just can't get excited about possibilities that may appear near the end of forecast model runs.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 20:49

Originally Posted By: gleno71
The strong southerly that's about to hit Sydney wont even make it up here, it washes out at Coffs Harbour, although the winds do slightly shift back to the SE, so maybe i'm reading it wrong?


You're correct in saying the southerly stalls on the MNC of NSW. The freshening winds along the coast this weekend is in response to a new high pressure system building across the Tasman Sea but it honestly looks more E'ly than anything and it also carries more moisture in from the Coral Sea than a southerly which brings much drier air up from the Tasman Sea.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 22:25

I just hope something changes soon, itís getting desperate 😢
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 31/01/2019 22:57

Updated these with the final figures now the month has come to an end.
The places with their location name in bold had their record driest January:
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Port Macquarie (1841-1852, 1871-present) (Port Macquarie Airport + Port Macquarie Hill St)
January 2019 Rainfall: 8.4mm (2nd driest Jan on record, behind 1882)
Record Low for Jan: 5.7mm (1882)

Kempsey (1882-present) (Kempsey Airport + Kempsey Wide St)
January 2019 Rainfall: 15.0mm (4th driest Jan on record, behind 1888, 1908 & 1900)
Record Low for Jan: 7.6mm (1900)

Smoky Cape (1939-present) (Smoky Cape Lighthouse)
January 2019 Rainfall: 8.2mm (the driest Jan on record)
Record Low for Jan: 15.0mm (1942)

Coffs Harbour (1900-present) (Coffs Harbour Airport + Coffs Harbour Meteorological Office + Coffs Harbour)
January 2019 Rainfall: 0.8mm (the driest Jan on record)
Record Low for Jan: 11.8mm (1994)

Grafton (1867, 1872-present) (Grafton Research Station + Grafton Olympic Pool + Grafton City Council)
January 2019 Rainfall: 7.0mm (the driest Jan on record)
Record Low for Jan: 8.6mm (1966)

Yamba (1878-present) (Yamba Pilot Station)
January 2019 Rainfall: 2.0mm (the driest Jan on record)
Record Low for Jan: 13.1mm (1966)

Casino (1858-1862, 1879-present) (Casino Airport AWS + Casino Airport)
January 2019 Rainfall: 1.0mm (the driest Jan on record)
Record Low for Jan: 4.9mm (1884)

Lismore (1884-present) (Lismore Airport + Lismore Centre St)
January 2019 Rainfall: 3.2mm (the driest Jan on record)
Record Low for Jan: 12.0mm (2003)

Ballina (1893-present) (Ballina Airport + Ballina Crowley Village)
January 2019 Rainfall: 2.4mm (the driest Jan on record)
Record Low for Jan: 16.0mm (1932)

Byron Bay (1893-present) (Cape Byron AWS + Cape Byron Lighthouse + Byron Bay Jacaranda Dr)
January 2019 Rainfall: 3.0mm (the driest Jan on record)
Record Low for Jan: 18.0mm (1897)

Also adding another of BOM's weather stations here:

Lord Howe Island (about 590km east of Port Macquarie) (1886-present) (Lord Howe Island Aero + Lord Howe Island)
January 2019 Rainfall: 1.0mm (the driest on record for any month)
Record Low for Jan: 9.6mm (1890)
Record Low for ANY month: 5.0mm (Feb 2000)

This follows a record dry December there where 8.2mm fell (breaking the previous Dec record low of 17.3mm in 1900). 2018 was also a record dry year there with 984.6mm falling (only the third time on record that a year has recorded less than 1000mm, with the other two years being 1997's 991mm and 1888's 997.8mm).
https://blog.thornleighfarm.com/drought-conditions-on-lord-howe-island/
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 08:14

Youíve Gotta hand it to ACCESS for tenacity
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 08:15

EC still hasnt updated on Windy
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 08:21

From this site is has the 9 day GFS with no rain for Brisbane and getting up to 35 deg next weekend .

http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weather.cgi?location=brisbane.QLD&pagetype=forecast
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 08:23

Originally Posted By: Vinnie
From this site is has the 9 day GFS with no rain for Brisbane and getting up to 35 deg next weekend .

http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weather.cgi?location=brisbane.QLD&pagetype=forecast

It doesn't have no rain? Look in the Rain (mm) columns.
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 08:26

Ok sorry , just don't think of a few mm as substantial.

What's the reason for the heat increasing next week as it has Rockhampton heating up too ?
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 08:42

WATL still has that 8 day massive donut hole.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 08:44

Originally Posted By: Blowin'
Youíve Gotta hand it to ACCESS for tenacity


To be honest, it has wound back gradually with each run.

EC still recurving it as a broad trough back to the east (not SE) late in the run but nearly impossible to say what happens after that. Still could quite easily lose this to the E given all the upper troughing through the Coral Sea (and there is a lot of it).
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 09:34

Seems to me that EC has a big low developing over the far southern Tasman or se of Tasmania combining with a high to the west to bring a blast of cool dry air right up into Qld. Of course that far out it often changes. Stay tuned for more cheery news.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 09:52

Could this dry spell be the start of another long term drought like what happened back in the early 2000s?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 10:08



For Qld as a whole, we are 6 years into a dry period not far off the dry period in the early 2002. The main difference being that we haven't had a year as extremely dry as 2002 was. Also generally hotter, so tougher on soil moisture etc. Some hint of a 10-15 year cycle in the data so possibly about to switch to wet. I think it is PDO related, but could possibly be solar.
Posted by: RC

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 10:40

Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
Could this dry spell be the start of another long term drought like what happened back in the early 2000s?


It has been ongoing for at least four years now.
Posted by: Ahab

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 11:01

Queensland is so big, and the differences between north and south are extreme. Tonwsville has biblical floods while the southeast is dry as bone.
Posted by: Sandbank

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 11:32

Biblical is a pretty apt description, Ahab. Relatives up there are astonished with the amount of water around and yet, more to come.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 11:33

And we gona get NONE.
Posted by: Multiversity

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 11:51

The lack of a southerly wind component for weeks now means aircraft are departing out over Moreton Bay. There have been a few early mornings when departures were to the southwest. I'm missing aircraft doing their right banking turns over Brisbane City before heading north west and north.

I'd welcome a few solid weeks of S.E. trades.
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 11:57

Don't know but this dry could easily keep going for a few more years yet. I don't think its about to switch to wet at all, excluding north Queensland ( And i would like to point out that the rains they are getting is normal, um it the monsoon ) Now looking at next week I have to say nothin will happen. The models looked exciting, but as i mentioned, it was just a mirage. Lower part of QLD, keep enjoying the dry as I think it will keep going. I think march will produce the first usefull rains but nothing out of the norm, eg more like normal amounts.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 11:59

Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Don't know but this dry could easily keep going for a few more years yet. I don't think its about to switch to wet at all, excluding north Queensland ( And i would like to point out that the rains they are getting is normal, um it the monsoon ) Now looking at next week I have to say nothin will happen. The models looked exciting, but as i mentioned, it was just a mirage. Lower part of QLD, keep enjoying the dry as I think it will keep going. I think march will produce the first usefull rains but nothing out of the norm, eg more like normal amounts.

Worth noting that it's only really been ACCESS-G which has been going for the system to come down here with huge rainfall amounts - most of the remainder haven't wanted a bar of it.

BTW such widespread totals of 1000 to 2000 mm of rainfall in such a relatively short space of time isn't really normal even for that region during a monsoonal burst.
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 12:11

Noted Ken, but from my standpoint, if you have a monsoon, any amount of rain it produces is normal. Its the worlds rain making machine.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 12:19

Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Noted Ken, but from my standpoint, if you have a monsoon, any amount of rain it produces is normal. Its the worlds rain making machine.


That's a bit like saying, if you have a heatwave, any severe heat it produces is normal even if it obliterates long standing records by 5C everywhere. There's a difference between typical rainfall amounts from a monsoon and those that are exceptional/historic/record-breaking.


Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 12:24

I wonder how would south east Queensland cope with one to two metres of rain falling in a week or two?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 12:35

I think the total amount of rain generated at the moment by the monsoon isn't abnormal. What is unusual is the focus of a large part of the monsoon over NE Qld for an extended period. For last 7 days we've seen widespread rains of 400mm and above along the coast, which I'd consider nothing special, but if we do get widespread 1-2m by the time its over thats getting more into abnormal territory.

The one reference to record breaking on that video was a comment that a 2 hour rainfall at a specific location was a 1 in a hundred year event, which while noteable isn't particularly relevant to whether the total amount of rain experienced is abnormal or not.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 12:48

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Don't know but this dry could easily keep going for a few more years yet. I don't think its about to switch to wet at all, excluding north Queensland ( And i would like to point out that the rains they are getting is normal, um it the monsoon ) Now looking at next week I have to say nothin will happen. The models looked exciting, but as i mentioned, it was just a mirage. Lower part of QLD, keep enjoying the dry as I think it will keep going. I think march will produce the first usefull rains but nothing out of the norm, eg more like normal amounts.

Worth noting that it's only really been ACCESS-G which has been going for the system to come down here with huge rainfall amounts - most of the remainder haven't wanted a bar of it.

BTW such widespread totals of 1000 to 2000 mm of rainfall in such a relatively short space of time isn't really normal even for that region during a monsoonal burst.


Certainly not normal. It hasn't happened for 20 years and these totals look to surpass even that event in 1998 so no, it's not even close to normal it's exceptional. I would like to know the last time Woolshed got a metre of rain in a week?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 12:55

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I think the total amount of rain generated at the moment by the monsoon isn't abnormal. What is unusual is the focus of a large part of the monsoon over NE Qld for an extended period. For last 7 days we've seen widespread rains of 400mm and above along the coast, which I'd consider nothing special, but if we do get widespread 1-2m by the time its over thats getting more into abnormal territory.

The one reference to record breaking on that video was a comment that a 2 hour rainfall at a specific location was a 1 in a hundred year event, which while noteable isn't particularly relevant to whether the total amount of rain experienced is abnormal or not.


Mike, it's FAR from typical - a number of locations have already received 800 to over 1000mm over the last 7 days e.g. Paluma Alert gauge has received 1125mm so far in the last 7 days up to 9am this morning... then if you add another 1000 to 2000mm onto the top of those 800-1000mm that's already fallen so far, that'll make it even more historic.

Rain rates in Townsville also exceeded 2% annual exceedance probability and the SEWS was issued with the warning.

Record flood levels are also occurring on the Ross River at Aplin Weir. And there's a lot more rain to come that will add to the flood levels on the Ross River as well.
Posted by: james1977

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 13:07

Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
I wonder how would south east Queensland cope with one to two metres of rain falling in a week or two?


You seriously have to wonder? It would be pure devistaion thatís how seq would cope
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 13:14

All good ken, but for me when i hear monsoon, anything is possible and the expect the unexpected to happen with it.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 13:16

Originally Posted By: james1977
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
I wonder how would south east Queensland cope with one to two metres of rain falling in a week or two?


You seriously have to wonder? It would be pure devistaion thatís how seq would cope


That amount of rain fell during 1st week of February 1893 for the Sunshine Coast hinterland most other locations in SE QLD recorded 500-1000mm.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 13:55

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato


Mike, it's FAR from typical - a number of locations have already received 800 to over 1000mm over the last 7 days e.g. Paluma Alert gauge has received 1125mm so far in the last 7 days up to 9am this morning... then if you add another 1000 to 2000mm onto the top of those 800-1000mm that's already fallen so far, that'll make it even more historic.

Rain rates in Townsville also exceeded 2% annual exceedance probability and the SEWS was issued with the warning.

Record flood levels are also occurring on the Ross River at Aplin Weir. And there's a lot more rain to come that will add to the flood levels on the Ross River as well.


How often does somewhere up north get 800-1000mm in a week though? It might be record breaking for a specific location, but its probably similar to something that happens every few years somewhere up there? Although more often than not those big falls happen on more favourable terrain such as Tully etc.

If you look at a flood map for Qld right now there is only 6 or 7 rivers at major flood level. So locally very intense, but on a larger scale not so much.
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 14:08

All good, its my opinion and is not a a globally expected opinion, so i wouldn't worry about anymore debate about it. I won't change my mind so lets move on smile
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 14:46

Some chunky looking showers inbound from the se on the 128 stapy.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 15:11





Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
How often does somewhere up north get 800-1000mm in a week though? It might be record breaking for a specific location, but its probably similar to something that happens every few years somewhere up there? Although more often than not those big falls happen on more favourable terrain such as Tully etc.

If you look at a flood map for Qld right now there is only 6 or 7 rivers at major flood level. So locally very intense, but on a larger scale not so much.


It's not just a single specific isolated location that's received 800 to >1000mm though - it's the number of them stretched out along that part of the coast that's received those falls in the last 7 days, with the threat of much more to come. Paluma Alert is just one of the examples.

You based your view that this event's rainfall was somehow normal on your original comment of "or last 7 days we've seen widespread rains of 400mm and above along the coast, which I'd consider nothing special".... but that comment didn't contain the context of the falls being as high as 800 to >1000mm (not just a bit over 400mm). And "if we do get widespread 1-2m by the time its over thats getting more into abnormal territory"... well 800 to >1000mm has already been reached in a number of locations, with more on the way.

The number of rivers in flood isn't always the best indicator of how severe or even widespread a rain event is compared to how long and wide those rivers are, how many larger rivers there are in the region whose catchments receive that rainfall, how wet or dry the ground has been, where the heavier rain falls, and how high the levels are. For example, major flood levels occurring in 6 big long rivers with some breaking records can be a far more significant indicator of the severity and extent of the event than major flood levels in 10 small rivers or streams. Flood levels can also take days, weeks, or even months to peak downstream in bigger rivers depending on many factors such as their length, where the heavier rain falls, etc etc.
In the current event, if I recall correctly Daintree Village broke its river height record set way back in 1901... and that often tends to be one of the wettest areas of QLD during the wet season. Ross River also isn't exactly a small river either so record-breaking heights along it also have high significance.

Above is a rainfall percentage graphic for the 7 days up to the day before yesterday compared to what's typical for the 7-day period. While the rain gauge network up there used in that 7-day graphic is limited compared to say SE QLD, it still gives a useful indication of the significance of events (especially if you combine it with the extreme daily rainfall percentiles I posted earlier).

I'm not sure what criteria you used to define "normal" but you'd have to really stretch the threshold if you wanted to call this event a normal monsoonal event.

And no worries paulcirrus, I understand what you meant smile

As for our local area, still looks on track for somewhat of an increase in the shower activity from this weekend through next week, moreso near the coast. But I can't see anything that would indicate a major steady rain event within the next 7 days.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 15:17

In my opinion, the monsoon up north at this time of year is completely normal and has been largely missing up there for a few years now. The accumulative totals of course are not normal...though that's what can happen anywhere when a low just happens to meander in the one place for consecutive days. It's definitely rare and a one in a however long event.

I am still not liking our chances with this one either. Too much W-E upper troughing across the Coral Sea which would probably promote a more E or SE movement of any stronger lows and a ridgy E or SE component in the lowers which will want to keep it north. Can't win really.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 15:24

No-one said a monsoon trough up north at this time of year was not normal. That's ridiculous.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 15:31

I think when people attempt to use the word normal in relation to climate and weather there will always be problems.
I would say:
Monsoon trough in N Qld in summer - commonly expected
Monsoon trough in N Qld with rainfall totals like that seen around TSV in the last few days - not commonly expected.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 15:31

Originally Posted By: Flowin
I think when people attempt to use the word normal in relation to climate and weather there will always be problems.
I would say:
Monsoon trough in N Qld in summer - commonly expected
Monsoon trough in N Qld with rainfall totals like that seen around TSV in the last few days - not commonly expected.


cheers Easy.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 15:32

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato


You based your view that this event's rainfall was somehow normal on your original comment of "or last 7 days we've seen widespread rains of 400mm and above along the coast, which I'd consider nothing special"....

Note the use of the word widespread. BOM 7 day rainfall map shows nowhere getting much past 400mm, and I am quite aware there is smoothing and individual locations can be much higher. So individual locations getting 1000mm doesn't invalidate my comment. Unless of course these locations are numerous enough that the BOM map is misleading?

And I wouldn't exactly say that the rain amounts are normal. But I don't think they are remarkable, except on the local scale, and the discussion was originally about the monsoon, which is not a local scale phenomena.

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

but that comment didn't contain the context of the falls being as high as 800 to >1000mm (not just a bit over 400mm).

No it didn't. Noting that isolated (I assume until given further evidence) locations received 800-1000mm givers more useful information about what is happening, and which I had not been aware of, but does not invalidate my comments which are about the broader scale, not the local scale.

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

The number of rivers in flood isn't always the best indicator of how severe or even widespread a rain event is compared to how long and wide those rivers are, how many larger rivers there are in the region whose catchments receive that rainfall, how wet or dry the ground has been, where the heavier rain falls, and how high the levels are.


All but one of the flood gauges are in a small area near Townsville (small relative to the scale of the monsoon), and one other flood gauge at major level out near Winton.

Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 16:57

Anyone having troubles with bom satview. Very slow loading up
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 17:03

Originally Posted By: gleno71
Anyone having troubles with bom satview. Very slow loading up


Just tried it. Same issue.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 17:14

Why didn't Government make new pipe line from Cairns and Townsville dams to South West Queensland dry rivers to NSW as water wasted in to Ocean for nothing.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 17:29





Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Note the use of the word widespread. BOM 7 day rainfall map shows nowhere getting much past 400mm, and I am quite aware there is smoothing and individual locations can be much higher. So individual locations getting 1000mm doesn't invalidate my comment. Unless of course these locations are numerous enough that the BOM map is misleading?

And I wouldn't exactly say that the rain amounts are normal. But I don't think they are remarkable, except on the local scale, and the discussion was originally about the monsoon, which is not a local scale phenomena.

The scale on that map is capped at 400mm+ so it won't discriminate between 500mm vs 600mm vs 700mm, etc.
As an example, Woolshed just SW of Townsville's now had 1008.2mm since the 26th Jan up to 9am today, but you wouldn't know it if you only looked at the 7-day map due to the scale used on that map.

I'm also well aware that the monsoon is not a local scale phenomenon. But the point I'm trying to make is that the rainfall amounts for MANY locations over a broader area have been much higher over the given time period than what you'd expect from a typical monsoonal burst.
Did you have a look at the daily extreme rainfall percentile maps I posted earlier? The fact that there's been multiple days where reasonable sized areas have reached the top 1% of their past daily rainfall amounts at this time of year (even including many past monsoonal bursts) by its definition means that those types of amounts are uncommon.

It would take me hours to compile a whole list but to put this into context by using Woolshed SW of Townsville as one of the examples, they've had almost as much rain over the last 7 days as what they normally get in a year (median = 1020mm)... 360% of what they normally get in the entire month of February... and 145% of their wettest February on record.


Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
All but one of the flood gauges are in a small area near Townsville (small relative to the scale of the monsoon), and one other flood gauge at major level out near Winton.
As you probably know, that river height map shows *selected stations* or points along rivers which become fairly sparse in more rural regions... at the *current time*. It also doesn't show what's happened before now (unless you examine the plots for each point), nor what's likely to happen. So as I mentioned in my last post, you'd also have to consider things like flood peaks progressively travelling further downstream over time as well as how much the ongoing current and future rainfall will add to the existing flooding.
The map above shows what sorts of return periods for inundation caused by rivers/creeks are being forecast within the this month by a hydrological model (forced by the EC ensemble rainfall). The shapes are some of the reporting points used by the system.
Purple triangles = greater than a 20yr return period, red = 5yrs, yellow = 2yrs. The numbers with each triangle = percentage of the ensemble's members forecasting the relevant return period to be exceeded. Blue areas = where the system currently predicts varying degrees of riverine inundation with a return period of 100yrs (the stronger the blue, the deeper the inundation). The total forecast period covers all of this month but the majority of the forecast peaks are forecast to be within the next few weeks.
Some of the points are forecast to have return periods anywhere between 30 and 200 years or longer if the additional rainfall occurs.
I post this map not as a forecast flood map but rather to show that the flood levels currently occurring right now at a selection of points aren't always representative of what happens over time and their extent (outside of just selected stations on the Bureau's map), and the importance of taking into account the ongoing heavy rainfall and other factors.

There's currently 7 rivers with major flood warnings current, one river catchment with a moderate flood warning, 4 rivers with minor flood warnings, and flood watches.
Obviously the entire length of these rivers won't be experiencing significant flood levels at the same time but the peak will travel downstream and progressively affect various locations along it with different severity levels.
Flinders River is just over 1000km long, Cloncurry River is just under 1000km long, Herbert River is a few hundred km, Haughton River is 110km, Murray River is 2500km, and the Ross River is only about 50km long but it flows through the major population centre of Townsville.

I think the key thing here is that it's not just the rainfall that's already occurred that makes this monsoonal burst right up there... it's the *combination* of that, and the likely upcoming additional rainfall on top of that over the region which makes this event stand out from many others.

Anyway I'm a bit over debating in a SE QLD/NE NSW thread about whether the 99th percentile of rainfall over repeated days and areas is normal, or that 800 to 1000mm + another 1000mm or more on top of that within the space of a couple of weeks is just another typical monsoon... if that's your opinion, by all means go for it. I've got other things to do.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 18:22

Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Blowin'
Youíve Gotta hand it to ACCESS for tenacity


To be honest, it has wound back gradually with each run.

EC still recurving it as a broad trough back to the east (not SE) late in the run but nearly impossible to say what happens after that. Still could quite easily lose this to the E given all the upper troughing through the Coral Sea (and there is a lot of it).


EC doing what you said it would unfortunately do and take it fast east. frown
Posted by: krissyleigh

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 18:24

Was watching the 10 news about up north
And the bloke who came from the govt meeting said they are looking at the modelling and the low would make it's way from mornington island and out to the east coast and down to Maryborough..
Posted by: RC

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 18:25

It is an unusual rain event to be sure, but facts are it is a monsoon event they has stayed to it's usual northern borders.

I can recall the monsoon coming quite a long way further south in years past. Whilst the Tasman highs might be dipping a bit further south, the inland Queensland ridge has not budged. In a normal period, I would expect it to move to the coast bringing unsettled weather then retreating back to inland Queensland. It may not bring rain every time it moves across, but it would bring changes in the weather. As it is now I cannot recall the weather being so stagnant in January. We are not getting hot weather, nor unpleasant weather. Constant easterly winds with the occasional south easterly spurt. But day after day after week of it.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 18:31

Originally Posted By: krissyleigh
Was watching the 10 news about up north
And the bloke who came from the govt meeting said they are looking at the modelling and the low would make it's way from mornington island and out to the east coast and down to Maryborough..


Yeah, from out of date modelling using Access G-arbage.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 18:43

Originally Posted By: krissyleigh
Was watching the 10 news about up north
And the bloke who came from the govt meeting said they are looking at the modelling and the low would make it's way from mornington island and out to the east coast and down to Maryborough..


Don't read anything into it. Only one model (and a statistically bad model at that) suggests such a thing. If more come on-board then sure.
Posted by: krissyleigh

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 19:11

Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: krissyleigh
Was watching the 10 news about up north
And the bloke who came from the govt meeting said they are looking at the modelling and the low would make it's way from mornington island and out to the east coast and down to Maryborough..


Don't read anything into it. Only one model (and a statistically bad model at that) suggests such a thing. If more come on-board then sure.


Cheers..

I've actually been just watching up north and haven't even bothered to look at anything for the next week. While it's sitting there nothing is happening in our area.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 19:38

Plenty of cloud today at tweed heads, compliments of the shear coming off the northern tropical low.

Posted by: james1977

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 19:55

Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Why didn't Government make new pipe line from Cairns and Townsville dams to South West Queensland dry rivers to NSW as water wasted in to Ocean for nothing.


That country particularly cairns area isnít called the wet tropics for no reason. If you were to take half the water away from the cks rivers ect it would ruin an entire eco system. Besides this is the best wet fnq and now has had in a fair while, imagine if every year every time a river ran it was pumped down south when the wet season was weak? Youíd have the whole cubby station debate going again but on a different level
Posted by: martyface

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 20:03

I agree with the pipeline not just for queensland....the whole of australia. Apparently its been talked about since the 30's/40's. Obviously we wouldnt "steal" the norths water all the time. Just take some when the monsoon season is "good". All of northern australia should have dams that could "feed" the rest of the country.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 20:35

Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Why didn't Government make new pipe line from Cairns and Townsville dams to South West Queensland dry rivers to NSW as water wasted in to Ocean for nothing.

pumping water is a super expensive exercise....inlaws dad was an engineer with a Qld Water mob (he worked on Wivenhoe hydro set up and was bought in to help sort out the Goldy desal plant amongst other things).... he told me several years ago that they had looked into the feasibility of it years ago, they knocked the idea on the head due to the high expense of it all.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 20:52

Originally Posted By: Namarrkun
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Why didn't Government make new pipe line from Cairns and Townsville dams to South West Queensland dry rivers to NSW as water wasted in to Ocean for nothing.

pumping water is a super expensive exercise....inlaws dad was an engineer with a Qld Water mob (he worked on Wivenhoe hydro set up and was bought in to help sort out the Goldy desal plant amongst other things).... he told me several years ago that they had looked into the feasibility of it years ago, they knocked the idea on the head due to the high expense of it all.


The pipe would need to be incredibly massive in circumference also . Imagine the pump to push it all?
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 20:57

How much would such a pipeline cost and what would be the potential risks?

Sounds simple in theory but in reality, projects like this never are.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 21:25

A pipeline is a joke - forget it. If the pumping cost doesnít kill you the salinity in the Murray darling will.
Since itís a seq forum Iíd just like to mention access is still in dreamland but seems to be trending towards the second low up near new cal. But still has something for us...
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 21:26

Bit off topic but a pipeline is great in theory but distance is the killer. You cant just make a pipeline from A to B thousands of km, physical losses would be extreme.
Shorter pipeline distances & using existing river/creek systems in conjunction with weirs would be the only way to me. Pump motors would need to be in the MW range, given current power supply issues prefering renewables to coal powerstations makes this venture a pipedream.
Had some strange stuff falling from the sky this afternoon, just enough to make look up at the dark cloud & say HELLO!
Enjoy your evening everyone.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 21:48

Oh and we got 3.8mm in a short downpour.
I was 500m up the road opposite Inclement Weatherís place and got 10 spits.
Lol canít believe Iím stoked with 3.8mm...
Posted by: martyface

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 21:50

Lets just class the "pipeline" as a "pipe dream" lol. But i swear one day instead of "oil wars" it'll be water wars. Food for thought....just seems criminal for a country 70% desert to simple just dump water into the ocean. Especially if northern queensland has amble water atm and the rest of the state is starving for water. I'm sure in the future we'll figure out what to do.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 21:59

Something like that can only be built with lots of political guts, lots of green sacrifices, a whole heap of money and the energy to drive it, all of which is severely lacking atm.
Sorry mod, off topic, I know.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 22:01

Not seq but ther seriously need to get some water out of the Ross River dam... Iím no expert at all but at 190% and rising someone in charge of it will be sh!tring themselves as it is still going up.

Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 01/02/2019 22:15

I'm sure they got everything possible open, what could be the worry is the integrity of the wall, at extremely high water level the pressure on it is up there.
Posted by: weatherhobbiest

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 00:46

Applethorpe (near Stanthorpe) has managed to pick up 1.2 mm. of rain since 9am.
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 06:19

water pipeline to kalgoorlie was called stupid too.
guy who suggested it killed himself cause he got mocked so much.

fast forward to today and the pipeline is seen as a great success

just need to feed a mining site or two and heaven and earth will move to make it happen.

australians are selfish, stupid and backward with water and climate management.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 06:39

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Anyway I'm a bit over debating in a SE QLD/NE NSW thread about whether the 99th percentile of rainfall over repeated days and areas is normal, or that 800 to 1000mm + another 1000mm or more on top of that within the space of a couple of weeks is just another typical monsoon... if that's your opinion, by all means go for it. I've got other things to do.


Don't debate it then, because that's not what I said.

Such rainfall is record breaking. Just like the rainfall that fell in Oct 2017 over much of east Qld Coast, Jan 2018 in NW NT and Mar 2018 in North West Queensland. Record breaking rainfall is not normal, or a typical monsoon, but it is also nothing especially unusual either.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 08:30

I'd love just 10% of the rain Woolshed has had this week. Up around 1350mm this week. Truly exceptional rainfall.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 08:31

One drop - Itís a entirely different situation if the pipe is for enabling a town water supply on top of a massive mineral deposit. Doing it for irrigation water just doesnít stand up.
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 09:21

Originally Posted By: Blowin'
One drop - Itís a entirely different situation if the pipe is for enabling a town water supply on top of a massive mineral deposit. Doing it for irrigation water just doesnít stand up.


i'd argue that food and irrigation is far more important and valuable than gold or most minerals. but each to their own i guess.

i did mention that if the pipeline was to a mine site, australians would move heaven and earth to make it happen.

back to topic, as i understand, qld government has a different method of forecasting to the bom, i wouldn't write off either of them.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 09:22

Wow 1350 mm .If we got 50 mm we are in flood lol. Should be a way to store that stuff for the bad times . As much as i don't really like mining, fracking company's as someone said give them some water and they will build the infrastructure or dams perhaps at least get something from them we need .
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 09:28

one drop: The QLD government gets its advice from the Bureau. There's actually a forecaster from the Bureau who's embedded in the relevant section of the state government for that reason as well. Obviously the decisions about various ways to handle disasters is ultimately up to the government though.
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 09:57

thanks for that ken. i don't pretend to understand, i was basing it off their slightly different long term outlooks and statements such as:

Quote:
"Whilst the DES outlook is based on historical relationships between Pacific Ocean SSTs and Queensland summer rainfall, the Bureau of Meteorology constructs outlooks based on the ACCESS-S1 climate model. As at 15 January, the Bureau of Meteorologyís outlook for January to March indicates a higher than normal probability of below-median rainfall for much of Queensland"

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonal-climate-outlook/monthly-climate-statements/


but thanks for the info i figured they would use the bom and their own methods.

not sure why qld gov would link to higgins though, perhaps they are worth ignoring.


Quote:

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonal-climate-outlook/short-term-forecasts-and-weather/

Short term forecasts and weather
Australian Bureau of Meteorology weather forecasts
Australian Bureau of Meteorology recent rainfall
Australian Bureau of Meteorology rainfall forecast
Australian weather news *
Global Forecast System (GFS) 8-day rain maps *
ďWho got the rainĒ Facebook page *
Higgins Storm Chasing (subscription service with some free content) *
Pivotal Weather (premium subscription service with some free content) *
Stormcast warnings (Brisbane Storm Chasers) *

Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 10:08

Originally Posted By: one drop
thanks for that ken. i don't pretend to understand, i was basing it off their slightly different long term outlooks and statements such as:

"Whilst the DES outlook is based on historical relationships between Pacific Ocean SSTs and Queensland summer rainfall, the Bureau of Meteorology constructs outlooks based on the ACCESS-S1 climate model. As at 15 January, the Bureau of Meteorologyís outlook for January to March indicates a higher than normal probability of below-median rainfall for much of Queensland"

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonal-climate-outlook/monthly-climate-statements/

but thanks for the info i figured they would use the bom and their own methods.

not sure why qld gov would link to higgins though, perhaps they are worth ignoring.


Quote:

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonal-climate-outlook/short-term-forecasts-and-weather/

Short term forecasts and weather
Australian Bureau of Meteorology weather forecasts
Australian Bureau of Meteorology recent rainfall
Australian Bureau of Meteorology rainfall forecast
Australian weather news *
Global Forecast System (GFS) 8-day rain maps *
ďWho got the rainĒ Facebook page *
Higgins Storm Chasing (subscription service with some free content) *
Pivotal Weather (premium subscription service with some free content) *
Stormcast warnings (Brisbane Storm Chasers) *



I was actually referring more to weather events that are currently ongoing or those in the immediate future rather than long term seasonal outlooks.

I know they still do look at other sources of info as well though like the links you posted (before the embedded Bureau position within the QLD government became an established one, I remember getting phone calls in the forecasting centre here in Brisbane from the QLD SDCC during some heavy rain events asking whether we thought the rainfall forecasts from the Higgins page were going to eventuate).

SEQ Water also looks at various products such as the Bureau's 3-hourly WATL rainfall forecasts and probabilities.
Posted by: Nic_Bri

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 10:17


"I remember getting phone calls in the forecasting centre here in Brisbane from the QLD SDCC during some heavy rain events asking whether we thought the rainfall forecasts from the Higgins page were going to eventuate"

Wow, really? Thats kind of funny!
Posted by: RC

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 10:38

Originally Posted By: one drop


back to topic, as i understand, qld government has a different method of forecasting to the bom, i wouldn't write off either of them.


I would right off the government's response to any disaster.

I have found the government and it's brisbane bureaucracy is absolutely hopeless when it comes to disaster management and planning. I doubt they could organise a chook raffle. That is based on my experience with Cyclone Marcia and Debbie. I dunno what they put in the water down there but it is not brain food.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 15:38

Brisbane Weather's Dave Taylor talks weather on ABC radio for 45 minutes.

https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/ov...REb5M0OJYyokeT8

He struggled a little with some of the more technical questions, but clearly has a decent understanding of the weather. So why is his FB page utter stupidity?
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 15:41

So GFS is interested in some troughing with a southerly change next weekend, but in typical fashion it arrives in SEQ at the wrong time. We miss out on storms while NE NSW and WBB get some before groundhog weather returns.

Access-G still stuck in fantasy land dragging the tropical low down to SEQ, but starting to keep it more offshore. I can't see it happening whatsoever, but the model seems to be ignoring the incoming trough which would steer the system out to sea anyway.

Prepare for another warm, dry month.
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 15:45

Originally Posted By: ozone doug
Wow 1350 mm .If we got 50 mm we are in flood lol. Should be a way to store that stuff for the bad times . As much as i don't really like mining, fracking company's as someone said give them some water and they will build the infrastructure or dams perhaps at least get something from them we need .


It never ceases to amaze me how they get massive floods out west from rainfall amounts that would be just a decent drop here. I'm guessing different soils as well as the very flat topography?


Re: pipelines, that's the idea behind the Bradfield scheme, which has been thrown around since the 30s. Dr William Nimmo showed that Bradfield's estimates were way out and the scheme completely unviable back in the 40s, yet still people trot it out as something that could be done tomorrow if only the government would pay for it. It's understandable that people want to believe it, if it was possible it would save so much heartache for the poor sods out west.

An interesting local fact is that Dr Nimmo created a formula that is still used today for the height and timing of a flood peak in the Mary River at Gympie. Roughly, the peak height at Gympie is the peak at Kenilworth multiplied by 1.25, plus 17 feet. Take 10 from the Kenilworth peak height to determine the time in Gympie (ie if the height in Kenilworth is 50 feet, the peak will reach Gympie 40 hours later).
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 16:19

When is the MJO due back in the Australian region? perhaps we will miss out on this round, but we might get something on the next round.
Posted by: Mezo

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 16:24

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Brisbane Weather's Dave Taylor talks weather on ABC radio for 45 minutes.

https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/ov...REb5M0OJYyokeT8

He struggled a little with some of the more technical questions, but clearly has a decent understanding of the weather. So why is his FB page utter stupidity?


Wtf, ABC must be really struggling for content if they're giving him air time.One of the worst FB pages in existence.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 18:51

Looks like we've shifted into a slightly different groundhog for a while with an overnight or morning shower thrown into the mix.Got to be grateful for any drop we get I suppose but I couldn't care less about it .Just making things more humid.What a pathetic storm season that was all thanks to that New Zealand High.Thanks a lot bro haha
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 20:12

Access G has been fairly consistent with a scenario of the monsoon low eventually going east across the Cape and then re-intensifying into a possible TC or hybrid system as it comes down the coast towards SEQ. Access G was once the outlier with this scenario; however both EC and GFS now have the monsoon low crossing the Cape with varying paths. It may be that Access G has been ahead of the pack with the others starting to follow. Anyway, if the scenario below does eventuate, at least it will be short and sharp and not the lingering intense rain that poor Townsville and its surrounds have been experiencing.

Posted by: Sandbank

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 20:23

Its officially crazy in Townsville. Just spoke to daughter. The amount of water unfathomable. And a nasty cell approaching. Loads of evacuations happening. If you believe in that sort of thing....say a prayer for our northern friends.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 20:29

According to EC this is only the beginning:



However, other models have far less (anywhere between 50 and 300 mm remaining for the entire event).
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 20:32

Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Access G has been fairly consistent with a scenario of the monsoon low eventually going east across the Cape and then re-intensifying into a possible TC or hybrid system as it comes down the coast towards SEQ. Access G was once the outlier with this scenario; however both EC and GFS now have the monsoon low crossing the Cape with varying paths. It may be that Access G has been ahead of the pack with the others starting to follow. Anyway, if the scenario below does eventuate, at least it will be short and sharp and not the lingering intense rain that poor Townsville and its surrounds have been experiencing.


Pretty sure EC has had that low eventually going out into the Coral Sea and strengthening for many of its past runs.

Neither it, or GFS still have the system coming down anywhere near SE QLD before the end of their 10-day forecast periods though of course.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 20:52

Last several runs EC has had it going east. Even CMC has since around the 27th.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 20:55

Access G is off its head as usual with the tropical systems.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 20:57

GFS and EC have come on board with Access-G to the extent that the low travels east and out to sea. I just can't see how Access-G could be correct when there would be a trough system moving through at the same time or ridging. Both would keep any system well away from here.
Posted by: kg8

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 21:06

So what's happening with the low over the Isa? It looks like a cyclonic formation and has been rotating over the town for over 24 hours now with cloud bands extending for 500km. I don't understand what that is, could someone explain it to me please.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 21:17

Originally Posted By: kg8
So what's happening with the low over the Isa? It looks like a cyclonic formation and has been rotating over the town for over 24 hours now with cloud bands extending for 500km. I don't understand what that is, could someone explain it to me please.


It's a tropical low associated with the monsoon. It's dragging down huge amounts of moisture as it stays fairly stationary. These are fairly common, but usually they move away or dissipate before long. That's not happening in this case.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 21:31

U can use wHAtever metrics you wish, it the easy the monsoon is active up there now, leads me to think there is now way in hell we will miss out in the next few weeks. Get to Bunnings and get the fertiliser ready. We are on.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 21:35

Seems alot of the rain around Townsville is associated with convergence from the E to NE'ly inflow to that low and monsoonal NW'lys the atmosphere is just prime for lifting parcels and there's alot of moisture. With the tropical low where it's situated and not being steered anywhere maybe south maybe north for abit but doesn't deviate far over the next few days atleast. Its just a perfect setup but not good for those affected.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 21:35

Originally Posted By: BIG T
U can use wHAtever metrics you wish, it the easy the monsoon is active up there now, leads me to think there is now way in hell we will miss out in the next few weeks. Get to Bunnings and get the fertiliser ready. We are on.

True monsoonal activity doesn't often make it down here. Sometimes it does (particularly if the MJO phase is suitable and strong) while the majority of times it doesn't and it stays in the tropics. This has also been the case so far with most of this summer where we've been under the influence of ridging from more southern areas.

What we do get more often in summer though is the convective rainfall in the form of showers or thunderstorms accompanying troughs that extend down from the north or the occasional hybrid type system that drifts in from the Coral Sea.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 21:36

Originally Posted By: BIG T
U can use wHAtever metrics you wish, it the easy the monsoon is active up there now, leads me to think there is now way in hell we will miss out in the next few weeks. Get to Bunnings and get the fertiliser ready. We are on.


If you want to waste the fertiliser on onshore showers...
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 21:59

Or... does a new low development in that convergence setup on the far north coast? Will there be 2 tropical lows?...just a thought.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 22:11

Has everyone lost their positiveness. Sure the grass is crusty, it will soon return.....
Posted by: Timbuck

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 22:32

Originally Posted By: BIG T
Has everyone lost their positiveness. Sure the grass is crusty, it will soon return.....


Yes ..... but Iím with you BIGT , wonít be long and this thread will be willing it to stop raining and can we see sun again please. poke grin wink
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 22:56

Just let it rain
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 02/02/2019 23:15

There has been no rain at all here from the onshore flow so far.
Coffs has received 1.8mm, which is already an improvement on January's monthly total of 0.8mm.

Meanwhile, 150kms southwards down the coast from here around Forster, there were falls of 50-115mm overnight from heavy showers and storms moving ashore.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 08:03

Actually getting a shower of significance here this morning.At least it might give the flora and fauna around here a ray of hope.
Posted by: Lani

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 08:29

Looks like nothing here up to mid-Feb, god knows when itís going to come 😢
Posted by: kg8

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 09:34

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury


It's a tropical low associated with the monsoon.


Thanks. It seems to be weakening in rainfall extent. I'll keep an eye on it.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 09:59

Well the drought has finally broken for us here, had 1.5mm in the last two days, with more to come by the look of it.

I'm glad it has because our lawn is completely dead.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 11:05

Holy Cow, just got hit on the head with rain drops. Awesome.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 11:11

Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
There has been no rain at all here from the onshore flow so far.
Coffs has received 1.8mm, which is already an improvement on January's monthly total of 0.8mm.

Meanwhile, 150kms southwards down the coast from here around Forster, there were falls of 50-115mm overnight from heavy showers and storms moving ashore.


That's kind of odd as if most of the east coast is under a onshore flow, you would think more places would get rain? We had a welcome downpour here on the Gold Coast around 6.30am this morning
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 11:15

Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
There has been no rain at all here from the onshore flow so far.
Coffs has received 1.8mm, which is already an improvement on January's monthly total of 0.8mm.

Meanwhile, 150kms southwards down the coast from here around Forster, there were falls of 50-115mm overnight from heavy showers and storms moving ashore.


That's kind of odd as if most of the east coast is under a onshore flow, you would think more places would get rain? We had a welcome downpour here on the Gold Coast around 6.30am this morning


Always think in 3D when it comes to the atmosphere rather than just the surface. The layer of reasonable low level moisture gets shallower as you go further south and most of it's under an inversion as well. Winds also have a more NE component from the MNC southwards atm.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 11:18

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
There has been no rain at all here from the onshore flow so far.
Coffs has received 1.8mm, which is already an improvement on January's monthly total of 0.8mm.

Meanwhile, 150kms southwards down the coast from here around Forster, there were falls of 50-115mm overnight from heavy showers and storms moving ashore.


That's kind of odd as if most of the east coast is under a onshore flow, you would think more places would get rain? We had a welcome downpour here on the Gold Coast around 6.30am this morning


Always think in 3D when it comes to the atmosphere rather than just the surface. The layer of reasonable low level moisture gets shallower as you go further south and most of it's under an inversion as well. Winds also have a more NE component from the MNC southwards atm.


Thanks Ken. You mentioned lapse rates a few days ago. Is the Lapse rate the rate on how air quickly cools as it rises in any given area?
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 11:19

Decent little rain shower occurring here currently, best in a very long time (though hardly drought breaking stuff)...only wish the weather station battery wasnít flat to know exactly how much is falling, changing that was on todayís list of jobs to do...lol
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 11:21

Pretty much gleno, it's the rate at which the environmental air surrounding/outside rising air parcels cools with height over a given location and time.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 11:43

No probs thanks Ken
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 13:10

At Bracken Ridge we have had 5 mm in the last 24 hours, 4 mm since 0900. Beautiful. Nice dark clouds and the 1st day for a long time we havenít reached 30įC + before midday.
Posted by: RC

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 13:11

So is the current situation caused by the lethargic movement of weather systems we have had this year.

A stagnant high in the Tasman, and not a stagnant monsoon trough and low just south of the Gulf.

Neither of which seem to be in much hurry to move along. Meaning huge falls under the monsoon and nothing everywhere else.
Posted by: Ahab

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 13:27

Around 15mm here the last 24 hours. Very heavy rain shower this morning. Finally.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 14:11

RC yea I agree.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 14:32

Originally Posted By: RC
So is the current situation caused by the lethargic movement of weather systems we have had this year.

A stagnant high in the Tasman, and not a stagnant monsoon trough and low just south of the Gulf.

Neither of which seem to be in much hurry to move along. Meaning huge falls under the monsoon and nothing everywhere else.


I would say the ridging through the subtropics is stagnant but the mid-lats have definitely sped up since January. There just aren't any strong troughs through the Australian region to drag anything down which isn't all that uncommon for this time of year. Also, it's pretty common to have dry conditions everywhere else when the monsoon is active up north. You make out the falls are isolated when they aren't. The whole top half of the state is getting good rain from this tropical low. It's sad to see the bottom half so dry still but it's rare to see a statewide event occur all at once like an Oswald.

Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 15:36

Mega
Is there a specific reason you put up the Icon model chart?
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 15:52

Precipitable water into NQ appears extraordinarily broad
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mt...4hrs&anim=html5
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 15:58

Originally Posted By: Flowin
Mega
Is there a specific reason you put up the Icon model chart?


Higher res than GFS on TT. GFS is even more bullish than that.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 19:35

Ridge contracts to the SE on Saturday 8th feb ( +t 156hrs ACCg)
allows monsoonal low to transit south/SE down the east coast
On Saturday night the outer isobar at 26s. ( ~noosa heads)
should get easterly onshore from this strong low. Actually the outer isobar of the tropics dips to 35s in a tropical dip of isobars ( troughing) and all down the east coast get moist NE onshore surface winds
( disregard ACC G sea level pressure forecast for TS/TC's. The actuall could be/ likely to be , higher)

Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 20:25

So all three models now in agreement that the low will eventually track SE along the QLD coast, just too far offshore. A real tease for us as usual, but Access-G did very well in predicting the general movement.

EC still suggesting another half metre of rain for Townsville with a further 1.6m in the Bowen region. This amount of rainfall is just utterly incredible.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 20:30

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
So all three models now in agreement that the low will eventually track SE along the QLD coast, just too far offshore. A real tease for us as usual, but Access-G did very well in predicting the general movement.

EC still suggesting another half metre of rain for Townsville with a further 1.6m in the Bowen region. This amount of rainfall is just utterly incredible.


I'm not too sure about that because for many days, ACCESS-G consistently had it tracking all the way down to SE QLD and smashing us with extreme rain and winds while EC was fairly consistent in exiting it off the northern or central QLD coast (way north of us) and out into the Coral Sea (and therefore confining all the heavy rain and wind to northern parts of QLD away from us).

In more recent days, ACCESS-G has taken it further and further east and now also exits it off the coast further north than previously, while EC's still exiting it off the northern-central coast.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 20:32

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
So all three models now in agreement that the low will eventually track SE along the QLD coast, just too far offshore. A real tease for us as usual, but Access-G did very well in predicting the general movement.

EC still suggesting another half metre of rain for Townsville with a further 1.6m in the Bowen region. This amount of rainfall is just utterly incredible.


I'm not sure about that because ACCESS-G consistently had it tracking all the way down to SE QLD for many days and smashing us with extreme rain and winds while EC fairly consistently had it exiting the northern or central QLD coast (way north of us) and out into the Coral Sea.

In more recent days, ACCESS-G has taken it further and further east (and now exits it off the coast further north than previously) while EC's still exiting it off the northern-central coast.


It nailed the E/SE track though, just got the angle wrong? EC and GFS weren't interested until a lot later.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 20:38

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
So all three models now in agreement that the low will eventually track SE along the QLD coast, just too far offshore. A real tease for us as usual, but Access-G did very well in predicting the general movement.

EC still suggesting another half metre of rain for Townsville with a further 1.6m in the Bowen region. This amount of rainfall is just utterly incredible.


I'm not sure about that because ACCESS-G consistently had it tracking all the way down to SE QLD for many days and smashing us with extreme rain and winds while EC fairly consistently had it exiting the northern or central QLD coast (way north of us) and out into the Coral Sea.

In more recent days, ACCESS-G has taken it further and further east (and now exits it off the coast further north than previously) while EC's still exiting it off the northern-central coast.


It nailed the E/SE track though, just got the angle wrong? EC and GFS weren't interested until a lot later.


Nah ACCESS-G consistently had it on a far more SE track and hitting SE QLD while EC's been pretty consistent for many days in a more E then ESE type track and therefore taking it off the coast much further north of us. The difference between the two exit points (and therefore how far north or south the heavy rain affects) has been huge, and not just because of the relatively shallow angle of the low's trajectory in relation to the orientation of the coastline either. GFS has also been similar to EC in taking it off the coast way north of us.

I haven't checked every single run so I'm not certain that they've been doing it every run but from virtually all of the runs I've seen from day to day, that's been the case.
Posted by: james1977

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 21:41

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
So all three models now in agreement that the low will eventually track SE along the QLD coast, just too far offshore. A real tease for us as usual, but Access-G did very well in predicting the general movement.

EC still suggesting another half metre of rain for Townsville with a further 1.6m in the Bowen region. This amount of rainfall is just utterly incredible.


I'm not sure about that because ACCESS-G consistently had it tracking all the way down to SE QLD for many days and smashing us with extreme rain and winds while EC fairly consistently had it exiting the northern or central QLD coast (way north of us) and out into the Coral Sea.

In more recent days, ACCESS-G has taken it further and further east (and now exits it off the coast further north than previously) while EC's still exiting it off the northern-central coast.


It nailed the E/SE track though, just got the angle wrong? EC and GFS weren't interested until a lot later.


Nah ACCESS-G consistently had it on a far more SE track and hitting SE QLD while EC's been pretty consistent for many days in a more E then ESE type track and therefore taking it off the coast much further north of us. The difference between the two exit points (and therefore how far north or south the heavy rain affects) has been huge, and not just because of the relatively shallow angle of the low's trajectory in relation to the orientation of the coastline either. GFS has also been similar to EC in taking it off the coast way north of us.

I haven't checked every single run so I'm not certain that they've been doing it every run but from virtually all of the runs I've seen from day to day, that's been the case.


Get an increase in shower activity or what ken?
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 22:09

It's groundhog day, weather seems the same every day more or less.
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 03/02/2019 22:34

BoM WATL seems to indicate a slow increase in shower activity further down the coast as the system slowly moves E/SE. This could be due to troughs embedded in the easterly stream and the low being in a more favourable position to utilize the moisture.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/02/2019 00:01

A stray, early morning shower brought 1.2mm in the 24hrs to 9am here. A bit of cloud around sunrise cleared off quite quickly to a sunny day.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/02/2019 08:06

We've got a stray here this morning, pleasant little shower.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/02/2019 08:38

Extended forecasts suggest a trend toward westward movement of a tropical cyclone from the far south-western Pacific either as a west-ward traveling low or a little Fujiwara action. A long way out.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/02/2019 09:17

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..4 FEB 2019 TIME..0810

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......23.9C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........79%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 19C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... SSE 13kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1013.9Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........15KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........6/8 cloud, showers nearby.
RAIN SINCE 0900 SUNDAY...5.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......31.9C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....20.9C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...20.9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....19C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1013.9Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 31kph at 0943
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Showers and drizzle.
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/02/2019 14:32

The current flow of the Burdekin Dam is 750,000 ML/day, thats enough to fill both Somerset and Wivenhoe in 2 days. Amazing

http://www.sunwater.com.au/__data/win/reports/win_storages.htm
Posted by: RC

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/02/2019 15:29

I always wondered why there are not more dams in the north used to grow more agricultural products.
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/02/2019 16:05

Have had some good showers on and off since about lunchtime today. 4mm in the bucket so far. Not much but its a good start smile
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/02/2019 18:24

GFS has next Monday/ Tuesday as 38 deg /39 deg in Brisbane.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/02/2019 19:36

we have been having morning showers for the past 5 days at the tweed A few mossie's emerging and a frog croaking. I believe the stalled pattern is finally changing.
Access g is giving the low/invest , TC status by sunday 10th feb with 4 quadrants between 34-48 knots , scraping the east coast ( from south of Townsville 23s to about the sunshine coast 26s) on sunday . I am not certain that TC status is given for transition centred at 22s as becomes mid latitude cyclone perhaps.
The surfers should enjoy this..

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/02/2019 19:46






Yep James, that somewhat more enhanced activity still looks like continuing on-and-off through much of this week too for SE QLD.

Different story up north though... as at just before 7pm last night, the Paluma Alert gauge (NW of Townsville) was up to a staggering 1780 mm already in the space of just over a week, Woolshed was over 1685mm, and the list goes on.

Townsville's now had more rainfall accumulated over the last 8 days than what they typically (both average and median) get in an entire year, as well as more rainfall than even their highest monthly rainfall on record. It's also their first time on record of receiving more than 1000 mm of rain within a week.
The last reports I saw mentioned over 1000 residents evacuated with about 1000 sheltering in refuge sites, about 400 homes inundated and 2000 affected by the flooding, and swiftwater rescues left right and centre.
What a remarkable event.

2nd map above - percentages (so far this month up to 9am today) of average Feb rainfall... and that's just over the space of only 4 days.

1st map above - mean temp deciles for last month showing the record high temps across a large sections of the continent with NE QLD and SW WA being a couple of the major exceptions.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 04/02/2019 21:35

A few heavy showers this afternoon 9.6mm must be approaching 25mm if not more for the last few days with the overnight showers.
Iím very happy out ďwetĒ season trades have arrived. Hello gardening!
Access G is still holding firm on that low - albeit a bit further east.
Hello surf!
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 06:37

Similar amount to what we received here from our morning showers before lunchtime...3.9mm in my gauge.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 08:24

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..5 FEB 2019 TIME..0720

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......23.9C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........83%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 20C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... SSW 10kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1012.0Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........5/8 cloud, distant showers.
RAIN SINCE 0900 MONDAY...3.2mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......31.2C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....21.1C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.1C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....20C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1012.5Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 34kph at 1100
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Showers and drizzle.
Posted by: mammatus meestrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 09:17

Those showers aren't penetrating very far south of the border.

and unless the Access G fantasy chart comes off it looks like a return to very weak pressure gradients, heat waves and more dry.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 10:10

Interesting reading.

Nothing typical about the event as some were trying to claim.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-0...sville/10779032
Posted by: Ahab

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 15:28

More solid shower activity now offshore. Forecast for today is 5-10mm so maybe a wet evening/ night.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 17:02

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Interesting reading.

Nothing typical about the event as some were trying to claim.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-0...sville/10779032


No one at any point claimed the floods/rain at Townsville were typical.

From the article quoted

Quote:
The reason that this event is very significant is because this trough has been sitting there for days and just hasn't been moving.


My point was that exceptional rains in Tonwsville not because of an exceptionally strong monsoon event causing heavy rains over a large area. As the article explains these exceptional rains were because the monsoon has stayed unusually still for an unusual time impacting quite a small area near Townsville.

Compare this event to a heavy monsoon boost last year. Not immediately obvious which one is a bigger rain event. Last year spreads over a wider area overall, covering the entire north coast of Australia, in contrast to this year's event being very much Qld. But this year seems to have a larger area of the more intense rainfall, with the area above 400mm larger in total.

For a truly exceptional large scale event, compare this year to 1974 and it is obvious that the scale of heavy rain in 1974 leaves the current event behind by a lot.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 18:11

Originally Posted By: Ahab
More solid shower activity now offshore. Forecast for today is 5-10mm so maybe a wet evening/ night.


Yeah, it's a nice change from the moistureless ridge we've had all January. Unfortunately, this is about as good as it's gonna get for the foreseeable future. frown
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 18:26

I'm curious to know, when they forecast showers especially in the Gold Coast region, they state "mainly morning and night " why is there a better chance of showers forming in those times compared to the middle of the day for example?

It seems a large area of cloud always moves in from the ocean pretty much late afternoon day after day after day?
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 18:42

Oh looky looky!! laugh.. what we have here. A new event thread..
ACCESS G brings the western flank of this tropical low on shore and gives us heavy rain from sunshine and gold coast, Brisbane and the tweed and into NE NSW coast on Monday 11th Feb . We would be on the stronger Southern flank .
Likely hybrid sub tropical low .
It has a NE infeed from the coral and some localise high winds on the coast.
Small in size. but a feisty southern flank
Any automated weather forecasts picking this up yet at T+ 150hrs , 6 days away
BTW , the day 10 ACCG modelling does not have the low as close as the 7 day forecast?
One of them late to update perhaps?
Anyway the extended model has it choofing out east quickly , so may be only a day event.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 18:51

Gee, looks nice, couple 100k's more west would be even nicer.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 18:58

Livio picked a week ago!! Haha
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 19:00

Can't see that happening when no other model suggests such a thing.

Just be rid of this monsoon trough and embedded lows and be done with it already, I say.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 19:02

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Livio picked a week ago!! Haha


Access G had that scenario a week ago. Only model that has this system anywhere close to the QLD coast. All other models have it washing out in the coral sea way off the coast.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 19:05

The critical ingredient is distance from the coast. This low is relatively compact and small on this forecast and a few hundred km shift in the forecast east and we get much less.
most ACCESS forecasts lows at t m+150 hrs will shift N, S E or W
in the space of 6 days . The suspense is always exciting.

This low has caused so much trouble. You would think it would at least get a name as A TC on its way out
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 19:09

Originally Posted By: crikey
The critical ingredient is distance from the coast. This low is relatively compact and small on this forecast and a few hundred km shift in the forecast east and we get much less.
most ACCESS forecasts lows at t m+150 hrs will shift N, S E or W
in the space of 6 days . The suspense is always exciting.
So where do other models have the low going MEGA at this stage?


Across the cape and out to sea past 155 - 160E unfortunately. Some models are trying to bring the shallow remnants back towards the coast under a low-level ridge late next week but by that time the system is virtually dead.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 19:13

No sign of any wind on Windy, Windfinder or Seabreeze. Not sure what models they use to generate forecasts but usually somewhere in the ballpark.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 19:15

For our part of the world, Windy displays EC by default or you can choose to use GFS.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 19:17

Access-R? It must be an Aussie thing. I remember Access models were insisting Ex-Oswald would be a coast hugger - and it was. I'm more interested in what Access-R is going to do once this low crosses the Cape. Access-G has been oscillating between an intense/broad pressure system and hugger on/off the coast. However, it has always been insistent that it will drift south. We shall see whether it is close to the money by early next week.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 19:22

I think we should also remember that ACCESS-G was consistently going for the NW QLD low to smash SE QLD with extreme rain and winds for many runs day after day until it subsequently started taking it further and further out to sea.

While itís always unwise to completely rule out any particular model for any setup including ACCESS-G, multimodel consensus ends up being closer to reality more often than not (also backed up by objective verifications).
Posted by: mammatus meestrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 19:43

Access G has been woeful this summer.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 19:43

If other models have the low tracking east out to the coral sea it is probably due to the fact the model predicts the big high pressure will remain in place in the Tasman and up into the southern coral, preventing southward transition.

ACCESS G l believe , seems to have a good handle on the Tasman high and its position over the 7 day forecast at least.

Why is the 7 and 10 day ACCESS G forecast a tad different. One has a ridge in place protecting the coast, the 7 day opne doesn't?
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 19:51

For what its worth EC & GFS on Windy have some handy 10day precip for SEQ.
I dont think its from that low but a humid onshore flow?
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 19:56

Originally Posted By: mammatus meestrus
Access G has been woeful this summer.



Most Summers.
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 20:12

GFS has 37 deg next Wednesday in Brisbane.
Posted by: Stephen

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 21:53

Finally something worthy of being called rain in Buderim. Best rain for the last couple months!
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 21:53

Actual rain in Kin Kin at last! Not before time, Wahpunga Creek stopped flowing a few days ago.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 05/02/2019 23:21

Some really solid showers tonight. 18.6mm so far with a peak rainrate of 51mm/h. Looking at GFS forecast soundings for tonight/morning shows a moist and slightly unstable Easterly in the lower levels below 600hpa. I reckon there could be some falls of excess of 50mm for some lucky areas closer to the coast by 9am.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 06:43

26mm over night, fertiliser would be soaking in nicely...mmmmmm.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 06:48

Originally Posted By: BIG T
26mm over night, fertiliser would be soaking in nicely...mmmmmm.
gee I was happily surprised to just read 8.6mm overnight in the gauge here, nicer pick up there for you.
Posted by: Rod H

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 06:55

24mm so far in Maudsland( Gold Coast Hinterland ). Still a bit more to come. Very welcome rain indeed. Smiles all round here.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 07:14

I am so over this wet weather, I was getting used to our beautiful brown grass and dust bowl. mad

35mm since 0900 yesterday. Nice beefy showers this morning.
Now just have to get rid of this heat. evillaugh

49mm in total so far since the 3rd of February. Still raining.
wink
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 07:18

5.5mm out here so far, more to come looking at Stapy.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 07:21

Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
I am so over this wet weather, I was getting used to our beautiful brown grass and dust bowl. mad
on Sunday I actually resorted to bypassing our water tank so that any of this shower activity spills water over the backyard now, instead of into our mostly full water tank. We don't water our grass as such (hence it being so brown), the water tank was only really installed for washing the fourby after going to the beach etc.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 08:52

Now up to 47mm since 0900 yesterday. Another 12 mm in less than 1 hour. It seems to be hugging the Pine River on the Northside of Brisbane. Some good falls up this way.

Now it means I will have to mow the lawn, I forgot how it starts. You will have to do the same Namarrkun if you have diverted your water from the tank.
evillaugh laugh
Still more coming in off the Bay. It is awesome.
Posted by: Wight

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 08:55

49mm overnight here until 6am. Noice!
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 09:09

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..6 FEB 2019 TIME..0805

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......23.1C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........92%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 22C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... SE 6kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1012.9Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........8KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........8/8 cloud, slight drizzle.
RAIN SINCE 0900 TUESDAY..26.2mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......31.8C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....21.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....20C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1011.6Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 43kph at 1304
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Showers - some moderate.
Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 09:23

Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Now up to 47mm since 0900 yesterday. Another 12 mm in less than 1 hour. It seems to be hugging the Pine River on the Northside of Brisbane. Some good falls up this way.

Now it means I will have to mow the lawn, I forgot how it starts. You will have to do the same Namarrkun if you have diverted your water from the tank.
evillaugh laugh
Still more coming in off the Bay. It is awesome.
yep....hasn't rained here since I posted this morning
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 09:34

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Interesting reading.

Nothing typical about the event as some were trying to claim.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-0...sville/10779032


No one at any point claimed the floods/rain at Townsville were typical.

From the article quoted

Quote:
The reason that this event is very significant is because this trough has been sitting there for days and just hasn't been moving.


My point was that exceptional rains in Tonwsville not because of an exceptionally strong monsoon event causing heavy rains over a large area. As the article explains these exceptional rains were because the monsoon has stayed unusually still for an unusual time impacting quite a small area near Townsville.

Compare this event to a heavy monsoon boost last year. Not immediately obvious which one is a bigger rain event. Last year spreads over a wider area overall, covering the entire north coast of Australia, in contrast to this year's event being very much Qld. But this year seems to have a larger area of the more intense rainfall, with the area above 400mm larger in total.

For a truly exceptional large scale event, compare this year to 1974 and it is obvious that the scale of heavy rain in 1974 leaves the current event behind by a lot.


Agree with you Mike. I lived in Townsville 1978-1980 and 1986 to 2011 and saw for myself similar situations. The famous "Night of Noah" in Townsville 10th Jan 1998 saw a 24 hour total of 549mm and a further 175mm 2 days later. The monsoon trough then stalled too ( although in the middle of a huge El Nino ) in the Townsville area and the associated monsoon low then drifted west giving Katherine in the N.T record rain. 2 years later in 2000, the trough stalled near Mackay and gave them a 600mm plus 24 hour total.

Townsville Jan 1998 - 974mm
Jan + Feb 2000 - 1002mm
Jan + Feb 2008 - 1047mm
Jan + Feb 2009 - 1655mm
Jan + Feb 2010 - 944mm.

All these from slow moving monsoon troughs. So what they are having this year is little different.

A lot of the devastation is a result of the building code up there. Here is a photo I personally took on 11 Feb 2008 near where I lived. Since then a new housing estate has been built there.



You mentioned the grand daddy of them all ( since 1893 ) namely 1974 in SEQ. After that Brisbane flood new developments were supposed to be banned on known flood plains. ( Ask Logan residents after ex Debbie ) After a brief lull the developments flourished again aided by the " brown paper bag industry " of State and Council authorities - which continues today even since 2011.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 09:40

Re Townsville, what sets this event apart from the others is the sheer amount of rain that's fallen in such a short space of time and its consistency from day to day.

The fact that over the space of just a week, Townsville already received over its annual average (and median) rainfall as well as even more rainfall than its wettest month on record and on top of that, breaking its wettest 7-day period on record, means that such rainfall in that space of time is unusual by its very definition, and unprecedented for the 78 year period for which Townsville AP's records go back.
Posted by: RC

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 09:46

I see the stagnant high has returned to the Tasman sea.

Dry times ahead.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 09:57

A lot of development on north shore of Maroochydore river in the last 20 years. In 1992 the whole Mudjimba/Marcoola area went under water in a big flood. On the other hand locals have been saying Kawana is a flood disaster waiting to happen for decades, and so far it hasn't. Maybe one day.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 10:01

A gentle 11mm, how good is that?
Much more be better.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 10:19

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Re Townsville, what sets this event apart from the others is the sheer amount of rain that's fallen in such a short space of time and its consistency from day to day.

The fact that over the space of just a week, Townsville already received over its annual average (and median) rainfall as well as even more rainfall than its wettest month on record and on top of that, breaking its wettest 7-day period on record, means that such rainfall in that space of time is unusual by its very definition, and unprecedented for the 78 year period for which Townsville AP's records go back.


Last 10 days at Townsville gives a total of 1176 mm, vs average of 1135 (wow at how low for a coastal tropical location), and record month of 1142mm. Wettest 24 hours over this period of 216mm vs wettest 24 hours ever of 549mm.
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 10:27

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
A lot of development on north shore of Maroochydore river in the last 20 years. In 1992 the whole Mudjimba/Marcoola area went under water in a big flood. On the other hand locals have been saying Kawana is a flood disaster waiting to happen for decades, and so far it hasn't. Maybe one day.


Back in March 2012 there was 126mm in an hour in Kawana (385mm in 12 hours), and the whole area turned into a lake.

There's been a few floods in the Maroochy/Petrie catchment since 92, but nothing on the same scale. Tewantin had nearly 29 inches in one day for that event, and a lot of places had over 20. I'd have to check the records but I believe Kin Kin got 24 inches.
Posted by: T.rex

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 10:27

NE Toowoomba had 4mm overnight, not enough yet, keep on raining please.
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 10:35

is ec moving more towards what access has been predicting?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 11:27

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Re Townsville, what sets this event apart from the others is the sheer amount of rain that's fallen in such a short space of time and its consistency from day to day.

The fact that over the space of just a week, Townsville already received over its annual average (and median) rainfall as well as even more rainfall than its wettest month on record and on top of that, breaking its wettest 7-day period on record, means that such rainfall in that space of time is unusual by its very definition, and unprecedented for the 78 year period for which Townsville AP's records go back.


Last 10 days at Townsville gives a total of 1176 mm, vs average of 1135 (wow at how low for a coastal tropical location), and record month of 1142mm. Wettest 24 hours over this period of 216mm vs wettest 24 hours ever of 549mm.


I meant to say they exceeded their median annual rainfall in 8 days (from the 30th Jan to 9am this morning, they got 1125.4mm vs their annual median of 1069.6mm) and exceeded their mean annual rainfall as well as record wettest month by getting 1205.4mm in 9 days from the 29th Jan to 9am this morning. And they still broke their wettest 7-day period on record.

The much lower typical rainfall in Townsville compared to the coast to the north and south is a well known phenomenon which has a lot to do to the shape of the coastline with respect to prevailing winds.

The higher rainfall amounts with that wettest 24hr period on record set in 1998 were much smaller in extent than the rainfall associated with the current event and fairly localised to that region: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/arch...&month=1&day=11

And we're talking about day to day consistency of the really intense falls AND areal coverage of intense falls here.

Anyway I'm sick and tired of the whole "it happened once/a few times before so it's nothing special" argument which always happens during these events. I think some people can't grasp the basic concept that some things are much more uncommon than others and therefore significant.

I'll be taking a break from posting on the forums from tomorrow for awhile and pursuing some other interests that don't constantly end up in arguments. I may return one day if a major enough event occurs somewhere because it seems like the current one in north QLD isn't anything significant or remarkable.
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 11:46

no one said it's nothing special.

and there's no problem imo comparing previous exceptional events to current ones.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 11:49

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I think the total amount of rain generated at the moment by the monsoon isn't abnormal. What is unusual is the focus of a large part of the monsoon over NE Qld for an extended period. For last 7 days we've seen widespread rains of 400mm and above along the coast, which I'd consider nothing special, but if we do get widespread 1-2m by the time its over thats getting more into abnormal territory.

The one reference to record breaking on that video was a comment that a 2 hour rainfall at a specific location was a 1 in a hundred year event, which while noteable isn't particularly relevant to whether the total amount of rain experienced is abnormal or not.
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 11:51

ok my bad, sorry.
Posted by: Rod H

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 12:09

Ken.
Please don't leave this Forum. You are one of the very few that have such interesting accurate and informative posts. There are a few others who also contribute sensibly but there are certainly the odd " Richard Craniums " that spoil it for all.
Don't let the pedantics of the very few spoil the huge amount of great input you have for the vast majority of us Forum viewers.
99.9% of us really look forward to your informative and very interesting posts so don't allow the.01% to influence you to quit please don't leave.
WE WANT YOU TO STAY MATE!!!!!!






Posted by: Stormwalker

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 12:10

I think the proof is in the pudding with respect to Townsville. It's pretty obvious the rain is atypical. Otherwise we'd see large scale flooding every other year.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 12:14

Thanks Rod H smile

I'll still probably return to posting one day if/when there's a major event though so not leaving for good.
I just don't have the time atm to sit here and argue the semantics of it all that's all.
There's others who I think make great contributions to this thread like Mega, Cold Front and Seabeeeze though, just to name a few.
Posted by: Rod H

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 12:26

Ken.
I would still ask you not to leave as we get so much good stuff from you.
Just ignore the " Richard Craniums " ( dick heads ) and keep up your very valuable and good work.
There's no need to bother with the semantics just keep posting your good gen.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 12:28

Your contributions will be missed Ken.
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 12:32



Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 12:42

i reckon the forum is a bit like these models, and the consensus approach is the go with regard to opinions.

perhaps discard the outliers (pluka?) but go for the consensus of the sensible opinions, obviously several people on here have more or sometimes less skill than others, but contribute to the outcome positively on the whole.

i've enjoyed reading the consensus here for many years.

enough out of me.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 13:07

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I think the total amount of rain generated at the moment by the monsoon isn't abnormal. What is unusual is the focus of a large part of the monsoon over NE Qld for an extended period. For last 7 days we've seen widespread rains of 400mm and above along the coast, which I'd consider nothing special, but if we do get widespread 1-2m by the time its over thats getting more into abnormal territory.

The one reference to record breaking on that video was a comment that a 2 hour rainfall at a specific location was a 1 in a hundred year event, which while noteable isn't particularly relevant to whether the total amount of rain experienced is abnormal or not.


I never said the rainfall in Townsville was not exceptional.

Note the widespread word proceeding that comment. Townsville is not widespread. Also note that this quote was much earlier in the event with much lower rainfall fallen as at the time of the comment.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 13:14

Seeing I have no credibility I guess I can write my opinion without of fear of reducing it. Despite our clashes in the (distant, I hope) past, I love all the inside info Ken and others put on the forums. But, why all the discussion, arguments etc on this thread about an event that has not and has never been forecast to effect SEQLD/NE NSW and adjacent areas as the Burnett and Downs. There must be other threads for it. I would not even attempt to argue about the northern event. I am sure all of us who live west of the Brisbane river who read this forum, check the BOM and models, hoping to see a break in this increasingly serious drought. Wish all that great rain many of you are getting would get a lot further inland.
Cheers
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 13:23

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Re Townsville, what sets this event apart from the others is the sheer amount of rain that's fallen in such a short space of time and its consistency from day to day.

The fact that over the space of just a week, Townsville already received over its annual average (and median) rainfall as well as even more rainfall than its wettest month on record and on top of that, breaking its wettest 7-day period on record, means that such rainfall in that space of time is unusual by its very definition, and unprecedented for the 78 year period for which Townsville AP's records go back.


Last 10 days at Townsville gives a total of 1176 mm, vs average of 1135 (wow at how low for a coastal tropical location), and record month of 1142mm. Wettest 24 hours over this period of 216mm vs wettest 24 hours ever of 549mm.


I meant to say they exceeded their median annual rainfall in 8 days (from the 30th Jan to 9am this morning, they got 1125.4mm vs their annual median of 1069.6mm) and exceeded their mean annual rainfall as well as record wettest month by getting 1205.4mm in 9 days from the 29th Jan to 9am this morning. And they still broke their wettest 7-day period on record.

The much lower typical rainfall in Townsville compared to the coast to the north and south is a well known phenomenon which has a lot to do to the shape of the coastline with respect to prevailing winds.

The higher rainfall amounts with that wettest 24hr period on record set in 1998 were much smaller in extent than the rainfall associated with the current event and fairly localised to that region: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/arch...&month=1&day=11

And we're talking about day to day consistency of the really intense falls AND areal coverage of intense falls here.

Anyway I'm sick and tired of the whole "it happened once/a few times before so it's nothing special" argument which always happens during these events. I think some people can't grasp the basic concept that some things are much more uncommon than others and therefore significant.

I'll be taking a break from posting on the forums from tomorrow for awhile and pursuing some other interests that don't constantly end up in arguments. I may return one day if a major enough event occurs somewhere because it seems like the current one in north QLD isn't anything significant or remarkable.


Hey Ken,

I've been in a similar boat on here a few times over the years and sometimes the best thing to do is to just drop everything and walk away for a little while. So, if you do decide to take a break from the forum then please don't forget to return because you're up there with the best contributors of the forum and your posts will sorely be missed.

Originally Posted By: one drop
is ec moving more towards what access has been predicting?


The other way around. ACCESS-G now has the low around 160E by the time it gets down here which is more inline with the other models.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 13:30

Hi Ken, I'm sorry you feel you need a break. However, I can understand. I hope my Access G outlier comments haven't annoyed you too much. smile I know a consensus approach to modelling produces the most accurate forecasts. I always appreciate and respect your professional and informed views.

As a long time member of this forum, I think I can speak for the majority of the members here that we love your work and contributions. When Anthony Cornelius left a few years back, it left a huge void of expert commentary on systems and events. Your contributions have been invaluable.

Anyway, I hope you're not away too long. Enjoy your break, and we look forward to seeing you back here sooner rather than later. smile
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 13:35

Quote:
The other way around. ACCESS-G now has the low around 160E by the time it gets down here which is more inline with the other models.


ok, thanks mega.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 14:19

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Thanks Rod H smile

I'll still probably return to posting one day if/when there's a major event though so not leaving for good.
I just don't have the time atm to sit here and argue the semantics of it all that's all.
There's others who I think make great contributions to this thread like Mega, Cold Front and Seabeeeze though, just to name a few.


Thanks Ken but alot of what I have picked up has been from people like yourself so don't stay away too long. Unfortunately that same stuff has ruined the ENSO thread also . I don't get involved there much anymore as it's become about agendas rather than what's actually happening. In recent times it has become ridiculous.

The people on the ground in Townsville all share your (and mine) sentiment regarding the exceptional nature of recent rains. I feel that because they weren't over the NT they didn't fall into line with the aforementioned agenda. Of course Mt Isa also set a February 24 hour rainfall record so it certainly wasn't restricted to a small area of Townsville as claimed.

Anyway, I frequent your FB page so will continue to enjoy there but please consider that many members here look forward to your charts , graphs etc as well as the explanation that goes with them without a hint of arrogance anywhere.
Posted by: kg8

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 14:26

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato


I think some people can't grasp the basic concept that some things are much more uncommon than others and therefore significant.

I'll be taking a break from posting on the forums from tomorrow for awhile and pursuing some other interests that don't constantly end up in arguments.


I agree, very uncommon and in many cases unprecedented events occur that should make us sit up and take notice. In the U.S. many insurers are pulling out of home insurance on the east coast because of the record damages incurred over there in the past decade. It could happen here, or premiums could go through the roof. I know my own premium has risen sharply due to the Brisbane flood and I'm not even in a flood zone. Planning for our futures means taking a critical look at the evidence, just like insurers do.

Have fun on your break, nothing like leaving a forum to clear your head. But as stated, I will miss your level-headed commentary.
Posted by: KevD

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 15:14

Will miss your contribution Ken. ENSO threads a mess, was hoping it would keep clear of this thread but guess not. Thanks for all you have put in. Much appreciated.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 15:34

Originally Posted By: ColdFront


Thanks Ken but alot of what I have picked up has been from people like yourself so don't stay away too long. Unfortunately that same stuff has ruined the ENSO thread also . I don't get involved there much anymore as it's become about agendas rather than what's actually happening. In recent times it has become ridiculous.

The people on the ground in Townsville all share your (and mine) sentiment regarding the exceptional nature of recent rains. I feel that because they weren't over the NT they didn't fall into line with the aforementioned agenda. Of course Mt Isa also set a February 24 hour rainfall record so it certainly wasn't restricted to a small area of Townsville as claimed.


Are you accusing me of having an agenda? Can you please stick to the facts and leave the personal attacks out of it.

My earlier comments referred to a small area around Townsville, as these comments were made before the heavy rains fell in Mt Isa. My later comments made reference to the heavy rains near Mt Isa which were definitely more widespread than those around Townsville.
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 16:18

OMG move on and let people have their say - right or wrong. Some of you need to get a hobby on the side or a girlfriend smile Don't let a bunch of text on a screen upset you beciase you don't even have a relationship with the author ( In person ) So your talking to a dog as far as you know who is a really good typist ( First one in the world to )....Move on. Ken's decision is , well his. But I would have just ignored the text and moved on personally.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 16:28

Well its been hot today
29mm overnight. Grass greening. Hope more showers to come
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 16:41

41 deg this time next week if gfs is correct.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 16:56

Yu better take that GFS out the back & burn it!
None of that!
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 17:04

Whys that Mad Elf? There does look like an increase in showery maybe thunderstorm activity over the next week or so.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 17:11

The showers can stay, the 41 deg can go get xxxxx.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 17:19

Ok I'm going to look into that 41c. Didn't see that cheers. At first glance I have not seen NW'lys in the near future.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 17:29

All good, cheerz
Bring on autumn!
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 17:38

Bom have 36 for brissy next Wednesday
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 17:42

Yeah, I saw the higher temp on here http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weather.cgi?location=brisbane.QLD&pagetype=forecast
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 17:42

Shame Ken
Weather. Were like kids loosing their lollies. If its fine to long we want it to rain. If it rains to long we want it fine. If something is planed where we need if fine and it rains we get the [censored]. If a storm. Heavy rain is forcast and dosnt happen we get the [censored]
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 17:46

And unfortunately geuss who gets blamed/ vented at...BOM and why. Cause its their fault its raining when it should be fine. Fine when it should be raining.and worst yet when we are looking forward to a storm and it happens in the next suburb. How dear BOM move that storm from us. Its only because we are so payionate about weather
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 17:49

Stop the squabbling and just bring on some exciting weather for a change FFS !
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 17:59

Sun is out, ended up with 13mm, way more than BOM forecast but no way complaining.
More of it please. Something big needs to give that low a big nudge west when it comes past next week.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 18:08

40s followed by a cyclone in March?

Ha, who am I kidding?
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 18:16

Lol did anyone even mention the BOM..
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 18:28

Probably get a cat 5 in July Mega.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 18:31

Looking forward to your return KEN . ASAP. Just love reading your posts and perspective. We are privileged to have a professional posting on here.
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 18:57

Same, Kens expertise will be sorely missed. Shame the bickering of humans nature ruins things . Iím fascinated by the enso thread, but itís jist too hard a read.. constant battle of egos.. lots of heroes in online forums. Hope to see your name pop up again in here soon ken. Go well in the meantime.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 18:59

Originally Posted By: Mega
40s followed by a cyclone in March?

Ha, who am I kidding?


Wouldn't surprise me to see a lot of activity to come in that regard those SSTs out there are certainly condusive for cyclones to form
Posted by: Kazz63

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 19:02

Geez, who did what to who?
Anyway, tis the internet - I always know where you are lurking Kenny!

In the meantime, I ill try & help out where I can.

I already have an image to cover the next 'it'll be a fizzer/I'm calling fizzer/didn't wet the grass in my backyard" event so rest assured Kenny, we can hold down the fort!

Here's a sample of what these good folks can expect!

I am not editing the picture - its obvious what I meant , lol.




So have a break Kenny - we got it all under control!
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 19:02

Originally Posted By: crikey
Looking forward to your return KEN . ASAP. Just love reading your posts and perspective. We are privileged to have a professional posting on here.


Absolutely and totally agree.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 19:03

gees kazz thats not what this forum is about, the fact some of you can't even discuss the weather at hand speaks for itself.
Posted by: Sandstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 20:36

47.5mm at Highvale
Posted by: Lewis

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 21:02

Originally Posted By: crikey
Looking forward to your return KEN . ASAP. Just love reading your posts and perspective. We are privileged to have a professional posting on here.


Agree. Ken's presence on this forum is why I often rely on this forum in tandem with the BOM for up-to-date weather information - BOM provides the official warnings and forecasts, this forum provides the speculative heads-up and on-ground observations for anything that the BOM doesn't cover.

(And my lack of knowledge is why I tend to lurk unless something is happening!)
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 21:18

It's always a shame to lose such an expert on these forums and we've already lost far too many over the years. There's been some stupid nonsense on here lately which has spilled over from that toxic climate drivers thread. I also imagine that it can get a bit exhausting being such a source of knowledge. I hope you'll return in time Ken. You really are an asset on here.
Posted by: planet x

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 22:15

Also looking forward to your return Ken ASAP.

What a loss to this forum.

Thank you for all the years of magic and learning Ken. I have learned sooo much.

All the best - and come back soon
Posted by: LightningGus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 23:10

I echo everyone elses thoughts on here regarding Ken. Although I don't post here very often anymore I still check the forum every day and really enjoy Kens input, as well as that of most of the other members on here. The wealth of knowledge from the experienced members on here is the reason my weather know how is so much better now than it was before I joined in 2012. Hope to see you posting again Ken, thanks mate and all the best!

Back to weather scored 16mm at home today, our biggest fall since mid December. Greatly appreciated by lawn and garden, some drought stressed plants are looking better already, even the crows and galahs were looking a bit more spritely this arvo!
Posted by: Dahlia

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 23:13

😀
Posted by: DaveMuzza

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 23:26

This weather forum has descended into the likes of My Kitchen Rules. No wonder great folks lie Anthony are no longer on here. So much bitchin and not enough weather news. Adios for good
Posted by: Belgarad

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 23:27

Originally Posted By: crikey
Looking forward to your return KEN . ASAP. Just love reading your posts and perspective. We are privileged to have a professional posting on here.
I agree it sucks idiots have to ruin it for the rest of us frown

Wish you the best Ken hope the break clears your mind smile
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 06/02/2019 23:59

A couple of onshore showers bringing 2.6mm in the 24hrs to 9am. 0.4mm since 9am. A light shower moving over at present.

Enjoy your break, Ken. smile smile Knowing Mother Nature, you've now guaranteed a major rain event for our region at some point over the next few weeks though. wink

Originally Posted By: Kazz63
In the meantime, I ill try & help out where I can.

I already have an image to cover the next 'it'll be a fizzer/I'm calling fizzer/didn't wet the grass in my backyard" event so rest assured Kenny, we can hold down the fort!

Here's a sample of what these good folks can expect!

I am not editing the picture - its obvious what I meant , lol.




So have a break Kenny - we got it all under control!
Haha Kazz, certainly an interesting 'weather' model you're using there.
Posted by: PlumbBob

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 07/02/2019 01:26

Well, Ken, you do so much to explain things and I certainly look on for your input to help 'square things up' between the stats & the reality of weather, , , very wise information and in particular your diplomacy in certain differences in opinions/info/posts regarding all weather scenarios.
Hope that makes sense, & hope you understand that your presence here is much appreciated by many of the W-Zoner's here !
Have a breather, enjoy your time with other hobs, and hope to hear from you & your scripts during the next main event, and the one after that, and the next after that wink
Just my 'Bob's' worth cool
-----------------------
Head down on the tools the other day, started sprinkling on my back - looked up and was awesmacked at this colourful view


Posted by: Namarrkun

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 07/02/2019 06:37

Nice pic Plumbbob..........ended up at 21.3mm from the shower activity for Salisbury yesterday, that should start to make the yard look nicer.
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 07/02/2019 07:25

climate driver thread is not as bad as some make it out to be.

i enjoy reading the variance of opinion on there too.
until you get pages and pages of people dancing around the banned topic.
the sad thing is, they seem to know their stuff, and are/would be an asset to the forum if they ignored each other more.

say your piece and move on! it's not possible to align everyone to your view.
fair enough there's a couple of rabid attack dogs and a couple of people that won't see beyond their own agenda.

like everything else in life, even they have some useful stuff to say sometimes.
but hey, this is the internet. best not to get too hung up on what anyone says, including me.

this quote reminds me of (in my opinion) the main problem on this forum including why they had to ban an entire section.:

Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 07/02/2019 08:33

Good showers here the last couple of days, following on from light showers much of the previous week. Front lawn has managed to turn into an odd mosaic of dead patches that didn't quite make it through the January dry and lush green patches that did and have responded to the rain.

Looks like the onshore stream might weaken next weak though as the heavy tropical activity up north moves into the Pacific.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 07/02/2019 08:52

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..7 FEB 2019 TIME..0735

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......24.2C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........85%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... SSW 4kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1012.7Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........25KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........7/8 cloud, distant showers.
RAIN SINCE 0900 WEDNESDAY..0.2mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......30.7C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....21.4C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.1C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....21C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1012.3Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 34kph at 0959
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Overnight slight showers
Posted by: Aussea

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 07/02/2019 08:58

Ken! Don't do it! I've moved to NSW from Qld recently, but I'm such an avid follower of your exemplary posts I still follow you in the various Qld threads, as the professional weather learning that you share with others on here has universal application. Qlders are not the only beneficiaries. Geez, this man deserves our utmost respect! You are authorised a 2 week break. Love your work.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 07/02/2019 09:19

Our count for this month so far is 61mm, more rain has fallen in the last 5 days than in the last 3 months here.

Had a couple drizzly evenings to put the icing on the cake as well.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 07/02/2019 09:40

Some heavy showers here of a morning as well, surprising how a bit of liquid from the sky can Green everything thing up quick Smart.Hoping to see some Cumulonimbus over the coming week 😎
Posted by: redbucket

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 07/02/2019 11:05

9.8mm yesterday at RD.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 07/02/2019 18:27

Some nice thick cloud again today and continuing morning showers at the tweed today.
Automated forecast hinting at some possible storm activity and 70% chance of 2-6mm tomorrow, including BOM forecast for the TWEED
One automated service giving us 5-25mm.. !! ??

ACCr is certainly going for the very light option.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

some nice shear from the north streaming down over our area
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 07/02/2019 19:29

Yep it's a pleasant change alright Crikey.Storms tomorrow would be a long shot but ya never know. Massive broad area of low pressure over the Coral sea in the coming days.
What a strange summer this has been.Floods ,violent storms and for us . . Blistering heat drought and an onshore shower or two now to settle the dust.Hope it all ends with something big around here too
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 07/02/2019 19:36

Yea Tweed I agree, but it can't be big events all the time.
Posted by: Stephen

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 07/02/2019 20:01

Everyoneís favourite model in 2019 AccessG (haha) shows the same low thatís developing in the coral sea float back towards Queenslandís Coast towards the next weekend. Donít ruin it for me everyone, let me enjoy wishing for this before the next run sends it to the grave.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 07/02/2019 20:16

Hahaha , enjoy Stephen.
And yeah A big event for me Stevo would be either 2 days of thunderstorms or just to see that New Zealand High get obliterated for a while
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 07/02/2019 20:26

To be fair to ACCESS-G for just this one time, it's not entirely out of the realm of possibly that far out since there's still a fair amount of uncertainty across the models and their ensembles with what happens to the Coral Sea low(s). If I were a betting man though, I'd bet on it ending up in the graveyard like most that spawn outside of the aussie AOR do.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 07/02/2019 21:25

Access G is just too far out of the realm of possibility its like looking at one run ext GFS with big events that turn into stable days with tumbleweeds.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 07/02/2019 23:03

Onshore showers bringing 1.2mm in the 24hrs to 9am, and 3.4mm since 9am.
Fine weather tomorrow, then it looks like the slight chance of a storm here on Saturday.

Lovely photo PlumbBob. :-)
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/02/2019 08:20

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..8 FEB 2019 TIME..0720

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......23.1C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........90%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... SW 4kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1009.9Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........25KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........8/8 cloud, distant rain.
RAIN SINCE 0900 THURSDAY..2.4mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......30.6C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....21.4C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.3C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....20C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1011.2Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..SE 33kph at 1308
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Overnight slight showers.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/02/2019 09:33

At a loss how chance of storms are in the Brisbane forecast today ?
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/02/2019 10:28

its got me , one thing ive noticed the last week or so is how warm the onshore breeze is. Cannot recall it ever being so warm, ocean must be very soupy out there at present.
Posted by: Ahab

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/02/2019 11:29

Storm = heavy shower with a rumble?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/02/2019 11:40

Good easterly flow to 700hp. A barely there upper trough at 500hp with CAPE up to about 500 J/KG, and maybe a little bit of divergence at 500hp level. I'd say heavy shower with a rumble or three would be the most we should expect.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/02/2019 12:29

I'll take anything that's not overcast murk or blistering heat.Rumbles of thunder rare as hens teeth in this region. Wish we could get something.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/02/2019 16:13

Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
I'll take anything that's not overcast murk or blistering heat.Rumbles of thunder rare as hens teeth in this region. Wish we could get something.


Sydney and the southern parts of NSW are kicking our butts this storm season.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/02/2019 16:56

Yeah it's beyond belief Gleno with all this heat and humidity not a trace of anything that even looks like a storm cloud anywhere.I was lucky to see a storm down near Lismore 2weeks ago. Further north up here it's getting close to 2 months of summer in the Queensland subtropics and not a storm cloud to be sent in all that time.H ard to believe.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/02/2019 16:59

yet there's severe storms in America's mid west in zero degree temps. Go figure
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/02/2019 17:01

Originally Posted By: gleno71
yet there's severe storms in America's mid west in zero degree temps. Go figure


Just goes to show its not all about whats happening at the surface. For our region there has not been any mid/upper level instability and the weaker shear or non existent shear.
Which can be commom for summer in this case it seems abit more exceptional.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/02/2019 17:25

Annnnd
Forcast storms for coastline areas
GGOONNEE
Posted by: tsunami

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/02/2019 17:26

Just one of those summers
See what next summer brings
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/02/2019 17:36

Can tell you now mid to end of March there will be something....no scientific reasoning just a hunch
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/02/2019 17:55

I am certainly enjoying the cloud cover. Its a nice break from the sun. Have to keep an eye on the young vegetable seedlings. One hr in full sun and they' cark it'.
Disappointed in the automated forecasts for the tweed today. Not a storm to be seen anywhere. Think l will stick to looking at ACCESS r
BTW. time for celebration. The ridge leaves the coast tomorrow lunchtime and we will have troughing. I started a thread for this trough activity. Which we have not seen for months.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/02/2019 22:25

More blistering heat for next week with all rain probabilities taken out. We have no idea what normal temps are anymore. We are looking at the hottest and driest year on record out here 2019. It only gets worse as the years go on...
Just my 2 cents worth anyway.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 08/02/2019 22:35

Looking at the upper level maps, I do not see where all this heat is coming from. Looks a bit troughy to me.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/02/2019 06:29

Seems Like no useful rain and above to well above average temps for the coming week, taking us into the second half of Feb. Is it still too early to assume that's it for the month? Apart from the coastal and hinterland of SEQLD, that got those great onshore showers, I wonder what the rainfall deficiency maps for (Southern QLD and Northern NSW) Feb are going to look like? This is supposed to be a wet month.
Posted by: james1977

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/02/2019 07:00

Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Seems Like no useful rain and above to well above average temps for the coming week, taking us into the second half of Feb. Is it still too early to assume that's it for the month? Apart from the coastal and hinterland of SEQLD, that got those great onshore showers, I wonder what the rainfall deficiency maps for (Southern QLD and Northern NSW) Feb are going to look like? This is supposed to be a wet month.

Bit early to write this month off, as for it being hot. January and February are the hottest months of the year. Rains coming, I dunno when but it is. Every drought has to end sometime
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/02/2019 07:13

Thanks, James for reading and commenting. I really hope you are right. I know this is the hot part of the year but it is also supposed to be the wettest. Away from the coast, it has been the relentless, if sometimes even just a bit above average temps that has really dried the country
Posted by: Sillybanter

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/02/2019 07:48

Yes you have to say that this mornings models look very discouraging for rain anytime soon in SE qld. As for the heat I feel its been a very mild summer here in Toowoomba if you take into account maximum temps. Perhaps the average temperature is up because of the continued dry but otherwise Imo summer has been ok.
Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Thanks, James for reading and commenting. I really hope you are right. I know this is the hot part of the year but it is also supposed to be the wettest. Away from the coast, it has been the relentless, if sometimes even just a bit above average temps that has really dried the country
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/02/2019 08:01

Yep, Sillybanter, my wife and I have said that very thing that our second summer in Toowoomba has been milder. In trying to learn Toowoomba's climate I get the impression that the heat increases considerably when you go east-west or south to lower levels. I know that happens naturally( the foehn effect I think) but it seems to have been more intense this summer. I hope that makes sense.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/02/2019 09:00

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..9 FEB 2019 TIME..0755

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......27.2C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........76%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 23C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... SW 4kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1005.6Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........4/8 cloud, increasing.
RAIN SINCE 0900 FRIDAY....0.2mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......29.7C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....21.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....21C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1006.1Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 30kph at 1017
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Showers decreased.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/02/2019 09:14

Like the Brisbane floods of 2011 where the blame game still continues over Wivenhoe Dam releases, the same has now started in Townsville. Well BoM got it right up there, so no arguments in that area.

Must be music to the ears of insurance companies once again to see if they can get out of obligations.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/02/2019 10:51

ABC and a few financial institutions ran some interesting stories regarding the possibility of Australia becoming uninsurable. As you may be aware the insurance companies like Suncorp, NRMA, RACQ etc etc have insurance to cover their insurance. These big companies are starting to get concerned if they can afford to keep insuring the insurance companies around the world.

Our policy is ridiculous and we live on top of a hill. I fight every year to bring the policy down.

But anyway I could only post part of the of the story due to strict forum rules.

It states

At the moment, Townsville is more or less underwater and large parts of Tasmania are on fire.


Summer in Australia has always been extreme, but some corners of the country are experiencing climate-driven disasters that are worse than ever ó and more of them every year.

Those stories are told in extraordinary detail as they unfold, but once the world looks away, there's the question of who'll pay the bill.

So with fires, floods and crazy weather becoming more frequent and severe, is Australia on its way to being uninsurable?

The answer is a little frightening.

Key points:

There were anecdotal reports of premiums reaching $30,000 after the 2017 Lismore floods
There is a serious risk some places could become too disaster-prone to insure, according to an expert
Taxpayers could end up footing the bill
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/02/2019 11:48

I lived through Yasi and 5 previous cyclones and about 4 other floods in Townsville and although I had a high set house and the 1998 flood saw a foot of water in the yard, still 6 feet below the floorboards, and never made a claim - yes up went the policies each time.

Here in Wynnum North luckily where nothing ever happens, even in the storm season ( sea breeze kills the storms ) my policies are reasonable.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/02/2019 12:43

Access-G the ultimate tease has the monsoon low returning as a cyclone on WBB/SC's doorstep next Monday. GFS kills it in the SW Pacific. EC has it returning but stalling a fair way off the east Aus coast.
Posted by: RC

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/02/2019 12:58

Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland

Summer in Australia has always been extreme, but some corners of the country are experiencing climate-driven disasters that are worse than ever ó and more of them every year.





Are you sure about that though? How many of these "disasters" are man made.

Build a house in a flooded area and amazingly it gets flooded.

Build a house in a fire prone area and it gets burnt.

Maybe we are just seeing more people living in stupid areas on top of that is rules that exacerbate natural disasters when they happen, like the government and environmentalists far away in Queen Street making it exceedingly difficult to burn off vegetation.

Build a city of all concrete and bitumen and fill in creeks and swamps and wonder why areas flood.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/02/2019 13:25

Hi RC,
Has your insurance policy trippled since the 2000,s. Ours went from $700 to $2250. We and everyone else are paying for everyone else. The story was on ABC but is on some financial sites as well.
No matter who or what caused the disaster everyones policy rises.
Who is going to pay for Townsville? Who is going to pay for all the cattle that drowned. Prices of meet will be high $30 to $40.00 plus they have already warned. Chicken will be the big seller so that will go up.
Who will pay for the Sydney and Melbourne storms?
It is the same with the fines the banks just copped. Guess who is going to pay, the arrogant financial institutions boldly told us we are.
The great God dollar. Greed. When I was a kid banking was free. Now they have to make Billions every year.
Unfortunately RC we are just the pawns in a big game.
Cheers. Hopefully that didnít depress you but it gets you cranky thou.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/02/2019 13:39

Originally Posted By: tsunami
Annnnd
Forcast storms for coastline areas
GGOONNEE


I'm glad I never look 5-7 days out, can bring a lot of dispointment.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/02/2019 13:43

My house insurance policy went from $750 to $1100 after the 2011 floods and I was not affected by it. It has since steadied only because I told them to raise the excess to keep the premium the same. No Doubt after Townville, the premium will rise yet again.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/02/2019 13:45

Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Hi RC,
Has your insurance policy trippled since the 2000,s. Ours went from $700 to $2250. We and everyone else are paying for everyone else. The story was on ABC but is on some financial sites as well.
No matter who or what caused the disaster everyones policy rises.
Who is going to pay for Townsville? Who is going to pay for all the cattle that drowned. Prices of meet will be high $30 to $40.00 plus they have already warned. Chicken will be the big seller so that will go up.
Who will pay for the Sydney and Melbourne storms?
It is the same with the fines the banks just copped. Guess who is going to pay, the arrogant financial institutions boldly told us we are.
The great God dollar. Greed. When I was a kid banking was free. Now they have to make Billions every year.
Unfortunately RC we are just the pawns in a big game.
Cheers. Hopefully that didnít depress you but it gets you cranky thou.



That's why I firmly believe life would be better without money being invented. I'm sure the human race got by over 1000 years ago
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/02/2019 14:01

DON'T GET ME STARTED ON INSURANCE FIRMS. They are there to protect us not ripp us off as they do. The general mantra is for insurance companies to bear the risk , not the home owner. Premiums should not friggin raise due to a natural disaster else they are not doing their job. They use natural disasters to their advantage by raising premiums sulking that the floods are not a normal thing and that someone has to pay for it. Friggin hell, then they keep that same price from then on year after year reaping the rewards. It happened to me in the Brisbane floods in 20111, and my bill went from 800 a year to 1400 a year and i didn't get a drop of water on my house. I since told them to get stuffed and went for coles insurance. So townsville watch out for the insurance companies as they are worse than criminal organizations. Why hsn't there been a royal commission into them ??????, they are joined at the hip with the banks. Sorry for my rant but they " Use natural disasters to raise their premiums from that year on without ever lowering them"
Posted by: Taylsy

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/02/2019 14:17

Dare I say it, but big business (read banks/financial institutions = insurance companies) latch on to the Climate Change phenomenon, feed off the media hype, and justify their insurance premium hikes based on natural weather disasters, or other non-related events such as crime rates. I've lost count of the number of times certain pollies cite climate change as soon as an outdoor BBQ gets out of control and starts a bushfire, or a cyclone crosses the coast in a populated area. Weather events have been a part of life since Adam was a boy (and even before that I'd venture to say!).
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/02/2019 14:30

I'm with you Taylsy. They use any means to raise their prices. BUT i think it our fault as well because we let them get away with it.
Maybe we could start a peoples survey on whether a royal commision into insurance companies should be had. Survey monkey ? BTW, get stuffed insurance companies
Posted by: RandomGuy

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/02/2019 15:52

My house insurance has been going up at a steady rate of about $200 / year and my area has never seen a natural disaster (besides that freak hailstorm back in 2011, which did not affect our house). This year we received the renew papers and it was just shy of $1800.

Shopped around for a new insurer and now am signed up with woolworths for under a grand. I have a feeling that this rising trend will continue on the next renewal, once they get you on board, they will slowly increase until they can get as much of your money as possible. It sucks, that we all know, but what other choice do we have??
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 09/02/2019 16:32

The thing is, who in the insurance company gets the money if they raise the premiums? The manager? The director? The shareholders? If the shareholders benefit, well they too have to pay the increased premiums?
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 10/02/2019 08:46

In today's Sunday Mail, already insurance companies are starting to knock back claims in Townsville based on ' stormwater vs floodwater '. Sounds familiar from here in 2011.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 10/02/2019 09:12

Originally Posted By: retired weather man
In today's Sunday Mail, already insurance companies are starting to knock back claims in Townsville based on ' stormwater vs floodwater '. Sounds familiar from here in 2011.


That's sad to hear, how will the people recover. I bet if every Australian threatened to cancel there insurance policy, things would change quick smart.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 10/02/2019 09:48

Very sad. Suicide rates will rise. Mental health will rise. Cancer from stress will rise etc.
We are just a number or a statistic. Sick world.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 10/02/2019 22:43

Insurance is ultimately a money game of chance. If the chances come more frequent then the money to cover them will rise. I am not defending the insurance industry but simply point out the facts for any insurance. If insurers unfairly exploit the fine print in policies that is despicable.... and not defendable.
Insurance payouts though are always felt down the track into premium changes when recalibration is done on the money game of chance.

For the current local SEQ weather... can somebody please arrange a change.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/02/2019 08:06

Well this morning is overcast and a sprinkle of showers just to the North. Muggy as hell. Is that enough to classify it as a change , well from 2 days ago at least which we were supposed to have the small chance of 10mm of rain. That forecast changed during Friday night very quickly . So over it. A cold winter please.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/02/2019 09:08

On a very somber note, I was just listening to the radio and they were discussing with one of the Cattle industry experts the severity of what has happened in the farming community. It is mortifying, so far from what they have been able to see and calculate is that close to 80% of cattle and livestock are dead or have to euthanised.

They had record floods, then more rain then strong winds that caused a very cold weather system and it killed most of their livestock and their livelihood. He said that farmers are a resilient group but this one he does not know how they are going to cope. It will take 3 years of no pay to get livestock going again and that is if they can.

The floods in Townsville are very bad but this is devastation to the highest degree. They were already struggling mentally and had an event planned for Cloncurry to help the farmers wifeís etc but he is not sure what is going to happen.
MMM is tryin to rally Brisbane to get this back up and raise funds and mental support for these poor people.

I may not be able to afford a steak for some time but I will donate anyway I can. I am not blowing my trumpet but if it is just a few dollars a week at Woolies or Coles and they match it I will do it. They need our help.

I will not be giving to Higgins SC or other charities who take fees out etc or some pop up fake charity scam that some mongrels will be doing over the phone etc, be careful, but some honest place like Coles that did match cent for cent. ( not saying Coles or Woolies are honest but they are honest with their charity) .

It was very sad. This was an industry expert who supplies machinery, etc, etc and he was trying to hold it together. You could here him chocking up.

They need help in both mentally and monetary ways .

Edit, just a fact stated, 50% of Australian beef comes from these affected areas.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/02/2019 14:55

A really terrible situation, almost beyond comprehension. I am thinking (just from reading media reports) that if southern QLD and Northern NSW do not get some sort of decent rain by the end of Feb, there are going to be horror drought stories coming out of these areas. Has anyone read that story about Norfolk Is' drought?
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/02/2019 15:16

Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
A really terrible situation, almost beyond comprehension. I am thinking (just from reading media reports) that if southern QLD and Northern NSW do not get some sort of decent rain by the end of Feb, there are going to be horror drought stories coming out of these areas. Has anyone read that story about Norfolk Is' drought?


Yeah, I just read that this morning about Northfolk Island. The Dam is almost dry and most of the residents water tanks are just about empty. it is terrible NotsohopefulPete.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/02/2019 16:08

Yep, Colin, Incredible weather going on, or lack of it.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/02/2019 18:04

Spine-tingling stuff that latest EC run. What a monster. Good thing it's so far out and probably a good thing it looks like skirting the coast than crossing.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/02/2019 19:39

On a more positive note, mention of possible severe storm in the forecast for Brisbane tomorrow.

Fingers crossed.
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/02/2019 20:05

Quote:
Spine-tingling stuff that latest EC run. What a monster. Good thing it's so far out and probably a good thing it looks like skirting the coast than crossing.


it's certainly persistent that low, definitely keeping an eye on this one.

as you say, likely to change so far out.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/02/2019 20:24



Just thought I'd come out of my self-imposed exile from these forums to post the MODIS imagery above via NASA showing the sheer amount of flooding occurring along some of the rivers in northwest QLD.

The Flinders River is currently experiencing its most significant flood in at least the last 50 years with record floodwaters in places also breaking out into adjacent catchments. The riverine flooding is continuing to slowly make its way further downstream along some of the larger rivers.

Per Ag Force Queensland:
ē An area of 13,250,000 hectares (approx. twice the size of Tasmania, 6,840,100 hectares)
ē Potentially 800 rural properties affected

Things still look on track for some shower and thunderstorm activity developing in SE QLD later on Tuesday and perhaps the potential for some strong cells although not exactly the perfect setup. Heat ramps up on Tuesday too and peaks midweek before easing back.

Still no major rain events on the horizon that I can see for our region at the moment.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/02/2019 20:29

Thank you Ken, your post is very much appreciated.
Posted by: shanebat

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/02/2019 20:54

Hi Colin, I didn't think they had a dam. Anyways you are right, things are dry even on Norfolk Island which is surrounded by the stuff.
We ended up getting 41mm from the coastal showers last week luckily enough, even a small follow-up from a storm tomorrow would be nice.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/02/2019 21:25

The only dams on Norfolk are property dams for stock, drinking water is tank or bore water.

Oh, thanks for you post Ken.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/02/2019 21:59

Still looks like a fairly dry period ahead, but much depends on the action out to the east. Any kind of westward movement could bring anything from onshore showers to a cyclone impact. It's a very unpredictable situation with lots of variables at play.

Long-range forecasts do suggest a return to wetter patterns in March. CFS monthly shows above average falls in QLD possibly from troughing and/or ECL activity. CFS weekly spreads it out fairly well across the month suggesting the LWT might become stronger in our area perhaps?


The way this season has turned out I honestly wouldn't be surprised if our dry spell was ended with a major cyclone impact on SE QLD. It seems to be boom or bust across the nation at the moment with drought or powerful storms and rain events, nothing in between.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/02/2019 22:09

Agree with that NF, and there does appear to be increasing science aligning with a hypothesized prediction that a forbidden topic on WZ may lead to wider swings of boom and bust than what we understand from past climate.
I consider the outlook to be one of more extensively stressed set of conditions making it difficult to predict. Nonetheless the weather is often difficult to predict.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/02/2019 23:04

Re post #1489986
Ken that is phenomenal satellite view of the dire situation in north west Qld.
What is not immediately evident to those who don't know the area is the sheer scale of inundation on these slow moving rarely flooded major river systems in north west Qld, but when they do flood the area affected is extensive. This event is extensive for that region.
Thanks for sharing, much appreciated.
Posted by: SnowyTrainNorth

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 11/02/2019 23:06

One can only hope of more rain, but it could be anything, really.

(Chart is the total rainfall anomaly from 8/02 to 25/03, but you get the point, don't you? You do.)
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/02/2019 07:16

Originally Posted By: shanebat
Hi Colin, I didn't think they had a dam. Anyways you are right, things are dry even on Norfolk Island which is surrounded by the stuff.
We ended up getting 41mm from the coastal showers last week luckily enough, even a small follow-up from a storm tomorrow would be nice.


Originally Posted By: DDstorm
The only dams on Norfolk are property dams for stock, drinking water is tank or bore water.

Oh, thanks for you post Ken.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-11/n...itions/10788932
Here is the article. Yesterday they were talking about dams so whether it is property dams or Watermill Dam on Northfolk Island which is a tourist attraction that is included, they have dried up. Refer to picture in article and you will see, I havenít been there but would love to go. To be honest it doesnít matter what dams they are talking about or the bores they have drilled, they are in trouble if they donít get rain soon. Hope we all get something soon except for those who donít want anymore right now .
Looks like an awesome place to visit but maybe not right now.
Cheers.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/02/2019 07:37

It is a great place, plenty of brutal history from the convict days. The first pic is the golf coarse, usually very green. The Windmill is on a small creek which always ran. I lived there for almost 2 years 89-90 and never saw it anywhere near what that article depicts. And you can't just order a truck load of water if there's nothing comin out of the ground.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/02/2019 08:02

Originally Posted By: DDstorm
It is a great place, plenty of brutal history from the convict days. The first pic is the golf coarse, usually very green. The Windmill is on a small creek which always ran. I lived there for almost 2 years 89-90 and never saw it anywhere near what that article depicts. And you can't just order a truck load of water if there's nothing comin out of the ground.


And you moved back to the mainland!!!!!!!!!! It looks like an awesome place. But there are all sorts of reasons why people move on. Hope it is working out well for you down in the Coastal Hinterland. Nice down there.

I am kicking myself because yesterday the article was just small and stated creeks, dams and tanks. This morning the story has exploded and any inaccuracies have been changed. If I had cut and pasted the story yesterday you would understand why I wrote that especially when you have never been.
There is another picture floating around but I donít know if it is Norfolk Island of an empty property dam and it looks massive.

Thanks for the info.
Cheers.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/02/2019 08:51

Staying on Norfolk comes with different restrictions and becoming a resident is a major. I had a work permit, TEP, which allowed me stay for up to 3 years. Got engaged before I went out there and came back to get married. Great experience though.
Been on the Goldy since 81, pretty much all of it west of the M1.
Posted by: Warloq01

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/02/2019 09:11

The heat this morning on the Gold Coast is absolutely horrendous! We are out in the hinterland and not a breath of wind. Unimaginable what is happening this summer, warm southerlys, no storms, constant low to mid thirties. Something needs to break, and fast. This cannot go on much longer. Praying for an early winter.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/02/2019 09:27

Thanks DD, I have heard that becoming a local in a lot of places is very hard but I didnít realise that you needed a work permit. Wow. I didnít want to asks because sometimes it is very personal and people donít like to talk about it. But thanks for sharing that. I have learnt 4 new things today. 3 about Norfolk Island.


Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/02/2019 09:33

The 4th was heartbreaking. While dropping my wife off to work we were listening to MMM. Dobbo was on and he used to be in the cattle industry. He knows a lot of the farmers and it is heartbreaking. Yesterday they were saying maybe 3 years to get back onto their feet, but Dobbo said seriously you are looking at least 5 years. Some of these farmers have $2 million dollar loans/overdrafts and have lost anywhere from 50% to 100% of their cattle. They were interviewing these farmers and they could not talk, they were in tears. They may never recover and as Marto and Dobbo said these are resilient and strong people. The bank may take everything or as they said the worse case scenario oversees investors just buy up everything.

Meet will go up. Most of our cattle is exported and there are contracts that must be fulfilled.

Sorry for harping on about this but it is heart wrenching to hear and see. Then on top of all that, farmers are going out and see what is left of their cattle struggling and they have to shoot them.

This is an historical event that they stated that has never happened before regarding the cattle and the floods.

As for the rain. Ken was absolutely right, if you donít know Ken, he is not just someone behind a keyboard, he is a meteorologist, he is on the news, he is on the radio, I hear him on MMM some mornings, he knows what he is talking about, he has the qualifications, the contacts and is in the know. We were privileged to have him and I am glad he dropped in yesterday. He writes scripts that we canít get and many of us are very grateful for. 99% of members on here are awesome but some like someone said have agendas or type some rubbish, cause a stir and ping off. This is a great forum and if we are not careful we will loose it. I have big shoulders so if you want to have a go at me for defending Ken go for it.
Posted by: CirrusFibratus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/02/2019 13:22

I had no idea Ken had moved on? I admit I haven't read the forums as much lately due to uninteresting weather.

Very sad to see him go, I am going to miss his regular and comprehensive contributions to the threads.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/02/2019 13:24

He is active in the current event thread and I'm so glad he is.
Posted by: Homer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/02/2019 13:33

As old as these forums are, they still have an ignore button.
It's the best way to avoid trolls, and there's plenty of them on WZ.
People like Ken should not be lost to these forums due to the ignorant and rude comments of a select few.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/02/2019 13:50

What makes a troll? With the scarcity of contributions in so-called boring weather, unless it is really nasty or outright wrong why not read it. I have seen a lot of Bom bashing om the NSW thread you know.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/02/2019 14:14

Hey NotsohopefulPete, making general comments is not trolling. Nothing wrong when there is not much to talk about to say something like boring weather, 38įC etc etc.
An "Internet troll" or "Forum Troll" is a person who posts messages to bait people to answer. Trolls often delight in sowing discord on the forums. A troll is someone who inspires flaming rhetoric, someone who is purposely provoking and pulling people into flaming discussion. One who thinks he is right and will not listen to reasoning.

There is actually a good thread currently being discussed about troughing and maybe possible storms. A very good read.

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...ing#Post1490058

Cheers
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/02/2019 14:56

Nothing ignorant, or trolling to point out that the flood event, while exceptional in some locations, particularly Townsville, was not exceptional on a large scale, and did not reflect a particularly strong monsoon. Rainfall for January for North Australia was driest in 25 years. February doesn't look a whole lot better.

As for agendas, I forecast an above average monsoon due to modoki influence, so if I had an agenda it would be to talk up the amount of rain from this event, not talk it down.



Posted by: shanebat

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/02/2019 15:44

I think I will also use the ignore function. I was of the opinion we had all moved on from this weather event in terms of arguing about how truly exceptional it has indeed been, with an estimated 500,000 head of cattle lost I think the facts speak for themselves!

Other than that quick post, I am staying out of it. What I am not staying out of is wishing this storm season would stop sucking so badly.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/02/2019 17:12




Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Nothing ignorant, or trolling to point out that the flood event, while exceptional in some locations, particularly Townsville, was not exceptional on a large scale, and did not reflect a particularly strong monsoon. Rainfall for January for North Australia was driest in 25 years. February doesn't look a whole lot better.

As for agendas, I forecast an above average monsoon due to modoki influence, so if I had an agenda it would be to talk up the amount of rain from this event, not talk it down.


All the rain from the recent big monsoonal burst didn't occur until very late January and was split between late Jan/early Feb so using calendar months to analyse the significance of a single event that overlaps two months isn't going to be truly representative of the intensity and areal extent of the event itself, especially if the areas concerned shifted a bit during the event, or if rainfall before or after it was low. You have to compare apples with apples i.e. compare the event's rainfall with what's typical for that same time period.

It wasn't just "some" locations either - if you looked at the maps for daily rainfall percentiles and average recurrence intervals posted around a week ago, you'll see the areal extent of the 99th percentile or greater rainfall day after day which included a large chunk of NW QLD and the northern interior.
For example, the Flinders River is a big river which runs through NW QLD and its catchment area lies outside the Townsville region... yet, it's been experiencing its most significant flood in at least half a century to the point that record floodwaters have also been breaking out into surrounding catchments.
As is often the case, the bigger population centres such as Townsville usually tend to get the most media attention because of the impacts and also partly due to the heavier concentration of social media footage from there while more sparsely populated areas get less, even when there is a significant event there as well.

Also, there's more to the strength of a monsoon than just how much rain it drops although naturally a strong monsoon will typically cause heavy rain - the crux of a monsoon is a seasonal reversal in winds. In the case of the most recent monsoonal event (and I'm referring to it as an event in this example to differentiate it from the rest of the season before and after it), the monsoonal west to northwesterlies feeding into the northern side of the monsoon trough and low were strong (bordering on gales at times) which is classic of a very vigorous monsoonal event and hence the repeated severe weather warnings for abnormally high tides along the windward facing coastline of the Gulf - wind anomalies from the 26th Jan to 9th Feb above. It's something that's often forgotten about in all the talk about the rain. While the low was the main talking point of the event, it wasn't the only aspect of it.
Another thing that's easily overlooked is the fact that rainfall anomalies associated with strong monsoonal events aren't just restricted to land where people live. Satellite precipitation monitoring indicates greater than normal rainfall overall over waters surrounding far northern Australia over the last 30 days, a proportion of which was likely to have been from the recent burst.

I think the sticking point all along has been what criteria you use to judge whether a monsoon is strong or not, and whether you're referring to the monsoon as in the context of the most recent event itself. If it's the latter, then it was remarkable not just in terms of Townsville rain but also other large parts of QLD's northwest and northern interior as well as for the strength of the monsoonal flow to its north.

On a more relevant note to this thread, I think this serves as another good reminder that while monsoon lows and trough sometimes do make it down here, a large proportion of the time they don't, even when they're strong.

Re the Coral Sea system that the deterministic version of EC's trying to bring in towards the end of its forecast period - currently 10% of its ensemble's members are producing any decent wind and rain from it for Brisbane while 90% aren't.
Posted by: Petros

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/02/2019 18:50

Thanks Ken - certainly was an exceptional monsoon event.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/02/2019 20:21

If Townsville had been the only area affected than one could argue that the event was only exceptional in that it stalled allowing one locality to get a huge dump of rain. But as has become clear vast areas of north-west Queensland received significant rain and wind. This didn't become apparent in the media until toward the very end of the event. The monsoon event was exceptional because it stalled, focused huge falls on a small area, but still also delivered significant falls to a wider region as well. As Ken mentioned there were other impacts too that suggest a powerful monsoonal event.

I think it would be incredible if that same monsoon low came back onto SEQ as a TC or ex-TC. That would instantly make up for this terrible season. EC still has it lurking off SEQ, GFS now has it striking SEQ as a smaller low flung onto the coast by the Fujiwara effect, GFS FV3 has a major cyclone impact on Rockhampton and Access-G has it rotting out near New Cal.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/02/2019 20:28

Re: Townsville. Not only was the prolonged stall exceptional, but also the conditions just before the peak on the Sunday 3 Feb around late morning to early afternoon.
In a separate post here: http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1489232/Atmospheric_Rivers#Post1489232
I posted a link to the precipitable water analysis product for 10am on the Sunday, that concentration of preciptitable water particularly off-shore and near coast on the Sunday was extraordinary IMO. God only knows what sort of rainfall totals may have landed on the ocean.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/02/2019 23:10

Looks like a nice cool change comes through here after tomorrow with temps below 30 degrees for a few days. Nice breeze expected too. Lows will dip a bit below average also. Hope everyone enjoys the cool break!
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/02/2019 23:15

Not to mention the hundreds of thousands of cattle (some estimates now put it close to half a million) killed in the floods, many of which were in northwestern and northern interior of QLD such as near Cloncurry: https://www.facebook.com/jacqueline.curley.969/albums/2304320376259409/

Not something that happens routinely in these numbers even after taking into account any changes in their distribution and numbers over time and prior drought stress.

ď The chief executive officer of AgForce, the peak body for the Queensland cattle industry, Michael Guerin, said farmers could take decades to recover.
ďThere is no doubt that this is a disaster of unprecedented proportion,Ē Guerin said. ď
Posted by: planet x

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 12/02/2019 23:43

Soooo good to see you back Ken!!
Posted by: james1977

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 07:17

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Not to mention the hundreds of thousands of cattle (some estimates now put it close to half a million) killed in the floods, many of which were in northwestern and northern interior of QLD such as near Cloncurry: https://www.facebook.com/jacqueline.curley.969/albums/2304320376259409/

Not something that happens routinely in these numbers even after taking into account any changes in their distribution and numbers over time and prior drought stress.

ď The chief executive officer of AgForce, the peak body for the Queensland cattle industry, Michael Guerin, said farmers could take decades to recover.
ďThere is no doubt that this is a disaster of unprecedented proportion,Ē Guerin said. ď


Some will never come back from it, itís crippled the northern cattle industry, the ppl are tough up there but thereís only so much human nature can tolerate
Posted by: wilyms

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 07:46

Ken has already posted something similar but hereís another view of the North West Qld flood extent. This one has scale bar and the property boundaries shown. Mind blowing really.

https://www.cibolabs.com.au/blog/devastating-western-qld-floods
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 08:00

I am waiting for someone to rage against my harping on the drought that is slowly but surely chocking northern NSW and Southern QLD. Apart from the fortunate SE QLD coast probably record rain deficiencies are developing for the last 4 months even right to the coast now in NE NSW. It seems to have been forgotten at the moment, but it will become stark reality when this month ends. Of course, I am hoping some big rain event happens soon. If not, someone may think, "that whinging jerk NSPete was right. But I hope I am totally wrong.
Cheers everyone.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 08:40

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato


All the rain from the recent big monsoonal burst didn't occur until very late January and was split between late Jan/early Feb so using calendar months to analyse the significance of a single event that overlaps two months isn't going to be truly representative of the intensity and areal extent of the event itself, especially if the areas concerned shifted a bit during the event, or if rainfall before or after it was low. You have to compare apples with apples i.e. compare the event's rainfall with what's typical for that same time period.


Well it would be nice to have a better time period to show maps for, but I don't so the monthly will have to do. I think it still gives a pretty good indication of where the very heavy falls were.

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

It wasn't just "some" locations either - if you looked at the maps for daily rainfall percentiles and average recurrence intervals posted around a week ago, you'll see the areal extent of the 99th percentile or greater rainfall day after day which included a large chunk of NW QLD and the northern interior.


No idea where this map is and couldn't find it.


Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Also, there's more to the strength of a monsoon than just how much rain it drops although naturally a strong monsoon will typically cause heavy rain - the crux of a monsoon is a seasonal reversal in winds. In the case of the most recent monsoonal event (and I'm referring to it as an event in this example to differentiate it from the rest of the season before and after it), the monsoonal west to northwesterlies feeding into the northern side of the monsoon trough and low were strong (bordering on gales at times) which is classic of a very vigorous monsoonal event and hence the repeated severe weather warnings for abnormally high tides along the windward facing coastline of the Gulf - wind anomalies from the 26th Jan to 9th Feb above. It's something that's often forgotten about in all the talk about the rain. While the low was the main talking point of the event, it wasn't the only aspect of it.


So how do the winds stack up to other monsoon events. Many other monsoon events include cyclones and this one didn't, so I'd be pretty sure the peak wind speed at a location in this event was low to average. Of course the average over a wide area would be more relevant. My perception is that this was probably stronger than the average burst, but not truly exceptional. In particular the area and intensity of strong wind seems to have grown significantly as the monsoon burst has moved on into the western Pacific. I don't remember there being any area of red on the map while the monsoon was north of Australia? Does anyone happen to have an equivalent map lieing around in case my memory is faulty?



Also look at the precipitable water as posted by flowin. See how there is more precipitable water well out in the Pacific near the dateline than over NE Australia. This reflects a modoki/el nino like state with more water out near the dateline, in contrast to true neutral/La Nina which would have more water over Australia, and trades pushing all that Pacific moisture towards the continent. I just can't see how the monsoon on a large scale can be exceptional when such a large proportion of the available energy is diverted well out in the Pacific.


Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

I think the sticking point all along has been what criteria you use to judge whether a monsoon is strong or not, and whether you're referring to the monsoon as in the context of the most recent event itself.


I am thinking of the monsoon in terms of general amount of uplift, convergence and moisture over North Australia. This relates to ENSO and MJO status and other climate drivers, and large amounts of such activity over Northern Australia are more likely to generate flow on effects to the southern parts through Rosby waves (not sure how it works, but thats what the research claims), being a key aspect of how ENSO/IOD status impact southern Australia rainfall.

A final method of measuring the monsoon is through the strength of the MJO. Not ideal, but at least it is relatively objective. This suggests a solid monsoon event, but far from exceptional.

Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 09:03

Mike, please drop it, or go to the climate thread. I do like most of your posts but like many, I have seen enough about this topic. Also, you have distracted from my brilliant post.
Cheers.
Posted by: Stephen

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 09:03

Does it really matter if one calls it exceptional or not exceptional? It provided above average rain for a lot of areas and lots or records were broken. Let the people in the middle of north western Queensland tell you what they think about this latest monsoon. I can guarantee they wonít consider it a normal run of the mill monsoon, thatís for sure.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 09:03

Geez, Mike you need to let it go. Strength of MJO as a method of measuring Monsoon really?.
Anyway the percentile maps you can't find are here:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/ex...3&colour=colour
There were many consecutive days of large areas of rain above 97th percentile and significant areas above 99th percentile.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 09:05

Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Also, you have distracted from my brilliant post.
Cheers.

Yes your post was good and very pertinent topic for our region right now and into the immediate future.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 09:17

Thanks, flowin. I put that in because I have seen It happen(though rare) to others.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 09:38

Originally Posted By: Stephen
Does it really matter if one calls it exceptional or not exceptional? It provided above average rain for a lot of areas and lots or records were broken. Let the people in the middle of north western Queensland tell you what they think about this latest monsoon. I can guarantee they wonít consider it a normal run of the mill monsoon, thatís for sure.


I'm sure it doesn't matter to a lot of people.

I don't think that stop those who think it is interesting from discussing it, as long as the discussions are polite and fact based.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 09:49

Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
I am waiting for someone to rage against my harping on the drought that is slowly but surely chocking northern NSW and Southern QLD. Apart from the fortunate SE QLD coast probably record rain deficiencies are developing for the last 4 months even right to the coast now in NE NSW. It seems to have been forgotten at the moment, but it will become stark reality when this month ends. Of course, I am hoping some big rain event happens soon. If not, someone may think, "that whinging jerk NSPete was right. But I hope I am totally wrong.
Cheers everyone.


No Pete they may seem to be forgotten SEQ and Northern NSW due all the attention centered on what has happened up North but the SEQ is under a severe fire watch. You would have seen a big difference in just the 2 years or more that you have moved to Toowoomba. The dams up Toowoomba way must be getting low again. They really need to build another dam but I am not sure where they could. Toowoomba has gone from a country town to a city. It is a very big place now.

The warning states

Fire Weather Warning
for the Central Highlands and Coalfields, Maranoa and Warrego and Darling Downs and Granite Belt forecast districts
Issued at 4:58 am EST on Wednesday 13 February 2019.
Weather Situation
Hot and dry conditions combined with freshening west to southwesterly winds will lead to severe to locally extreme fire dangers across forested areas of the Maranoa, Darling Downs & Granite Belt, southeastern Central West and southwestern Central Highlands and Coalfields districts today.

For the rest of Wednesday 13 February:
Extreme Fire Danger is forecast for the following forecast district:
Darling Downs and Granite Belt

Severe Fire Danger is forecast for the following forecast districts:
Central Highlands and Coalfields and Maranoa and Warrego

The Rural Fire Service Queensland advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au.

No further warnings will be issued for this event, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings issued if necessary.
Warnings Information
About fire weather warnings.
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 09:49

Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
I am waiting for someone to rage against my harping on the drought that is slowly but surely chocking northern NSW and Southern QLD. Apart from the fortunate SE QLD coast probably record rain deficiencies are developing for the last 4 months even right to the coast now in NE NSW. It seems to have been forgotten at the moment, but it will become stark reality when this month ends. Of course, I am hoping some big rain event happens soon. If not, someone may think, "that whinging jerk NSPete was right. But I hope I am totally wrong.
Cheers everyone.


I'm right with you there, we've had 4 inches over the last week which is very welcome indeed, but there is not much moisture past the surface. I've got my fingers crossed that the end of this month/March will bring some more rain but I'm also prepared for another sub par start to a dry winter. The rain here has been getting increasingly unreliable and sporadic over the last few years.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 10:35

Yes Pete, as you know we are in the same boat here. Although with lack of water, we might use another vehicle?
Anyway, not only the past 4 months or 2 years, but I have noticed less rain out this way for about 5 years. I came here in 2009, and from 2009 until about 2014 it seemed to rain a lot more, with good solid rain events. From then on, it has been so unreliable, just like a good November storm event. We have not had one of those for 2 years now.
20-30 year old trees are dying or dead on my property. This is an exceptional event indeed. More localised on the Southern Downs than most areas I believe.
This certainly is a disturbing trend...
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 11:42







Mike, re the winds, have a look at the archived ASCAT surface wind speed data (sustained speeds) during much of that period (datestamps at the top of each one) - 26 to 33kt (approximately the light orange colours) satisfies strong wind warning criteria and gales start at 34kt:

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/arch_25km_META/AS2019029/zooms/WMBds259.png
https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/arch_25km_META/AS2019030/zooms/WMBds259.png
https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/arch_25km_META/AS2019031/zooms/WMBds259.png
https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/arch_25km_META/AS2019032/zooms/WMBas259.png
https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/arch_25km_META/AS2019033/zooms/WMBds259.png
https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/arch_25km_META/AS2019034/zooms/WMBds259.png
https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/arch_25km_META/AS2019035/zooms/WMBds259.png
https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/arch_25km_META/AS2019036/zooms/WMBds259.png
https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/arch_25km_META/AS2019037/zooms/WMBas259.png
https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/arch_25km_META/AS2019038/zooms/WMBas259.png
https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/arch_25km_META/AS2019039/zooms/WMBds259.png

Also, the 1st image above is the reanalysis of the winds near gradient level averaged across that time period - the speeds are in m/s so double them to get an approximate speed in knots (or multiply by 1.852 to be more precise).

I don't think anyone's claiming that the monsoonal wind speeds were record breaking or anything like that but any forecaster knows that those monsoonal W to NW'lies in those analyses are strong in the context of monsoonal bursts.

The red shading you mentioned on the gradient wind analysis you posted which indicates 45kt or greater at gradient level isn't often seen in the tropics even with strong monsoonal bursts unless it's near a TC.

As for gust speeds, the median of the peak daily gust speeds recorded in Weipa (which was one of the locations within those monsoonal W to NW'lies) between the 20th Jan and 8th Feb was 36kt, and the peak gust speeds were quite consistent from day to day. Max gust during that period was 39kt. Here's the list:
29kt, 30kt, 39kt, 38kt, 34kt, 37kt, 37kt, 31kt, 37kt and 29kt.

As also mentioned earlier, severe weather warnings were also issued on a number of occasions for abnormally high tides on the windward facing coastlines together with strong wind warnings.

Have you had a look at what other people have posted here (not just me) regarding this event, not to mention the daily rainfall percentile maps and the incredible cattle losses in NW and N QLD?

The precipitable water image that Flowin posted was for a single day.
The 2nd image above shows the precipitable water anomalies averaged over the period of 26th Jan to 8th Feb. PW anomalies and particularly PW percentages of climatologically normal PW values for a given area is often used as one of the diagnostics in flash flood forecasting. In this event, there was a good chunk of north QLD with significant PW anomalies during this period.
Now why do I get the funny feeling that you'll bring something else up again laugh

Anyway back to our region, I agree Pete, the rainfall deficiency maps aren't looking good. Even just a drive out into the countryside reveals just how brown everything is.

Latest EC keeps that big TC coming in from the New Caledonia region a fair way out to sea (further out than the previous runs).
Maybe we could hope for a big ECL to dump lots of rain on us sometime in autumn or winter but even they seem to be a bit hard to come by lately.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 12:35

Welcome back Ken! Great to read your posts again.
Posted by: Whisper

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 12:39

Can someone tell me about the weather forecast for SEQ instead of the NQ please.
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 12:40

Toowoomba dams total down to 37.4% and dropping quickly.I agree we do need to build another dam but as was stated earlier where.Our 3 dams are all located NE of Toowoomba so I doubt whether we could put another one up there.Maybe they could expand the area of say Cressbrook as this one seems to get more inflows.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 12:51

Thanks, everybody for a great discussion. A lot to absorb.
Posted by: mammatus meestrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 12:52

Nothing in NENSW from that round of storms.

Hoping for a shower or two as the new ridge builds up the coast.

40 degrees in Lismore today.
Posted by: LDRcycles

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 13:04

Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Toowoomba dams total down to 37.4% and dropping quickly.I agree we do need to build another dam but as was stated earlier where.Our 3 dams are all located NE of Toowoomba so I doubt whether we could put another one up there.Maybe they could expand the area of say Cressbrook as this one seems to get more inflows.


Just going off a topo map it looks like there is scope to raise cressbrook, but there's obviously a lot more to it than just terrain.

The nearest proposed dam sites I'm aware of are Emu Creek near Harlin and Cooyar Creek below McCauley Weir north of Linville, I think both of those ought to be built.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 14:53

Originally Posted By: Whisper
Can someone tell me about the weather forecast for SEQ instead of the NQ please.


Hey Whisper this is just day to day and a lot is discussed and sometimes we go outside our area because of what is happening and how it affecting us here, but for what is happening right this very minute we are in the thread
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...ng#Post1489415.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 15:20

Ken,

Your precipitable water chart cuts out the Pacific, and my point was that a large portion of the precipitable water was well out in the Pacific, implying a large amount of the monsoon energy was out in the Pacific, and not in Australia.

Here is the chart expanded to cover the significant amounts of PW diverted into the Pacific:



Compare this to one of the monsoon events last year:



About the same PW near peak, but less diverted out into the Pacific.

I don't think PW is the best indicator of monsoon/rain potential as there is a big difference between high PW and slack winds that do not replenish the moisture if its rained out, and high PW and strong winds that quickly replenish the water as its rained out. Looking at surface winds:





This event clearly has stronger winds. However note that there is a fair bit of Westerly that continues out into the Pacific this year, whereas last year a larger amount of the westerly winds seemed to terminate near Australia. I can't find a good way to identify potentially strong westerly wind events across the top end, but having a bit of a hunt through some recent years, suggests that last year's event might also qualify as strong and the current event has stronger winds than I gave it credit for. Not sure whether it qualifies as 'quite strong' (say 1 in 5 to 10 year), or exceptionally strong (20 - 100 years).

However to me a key aspect is uplift and convergence. Is the wind blowing the moisture past and through Australia, or is the wind causing moisture to converge and lift on/near Australia to form rain. I've had a look at velocity potential, which if I understand is convergence at roughly 850hp, and it shows that this years event is weaker than last year's, and substantially more focused in the Pacific. But I'm not sure if I understand what velocity potential at 0.8548 sigma is after doing some googling and reading eg this. I am in particular puzzled as why this value is +ve everywhere on these maps.



Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 18:07

Not looking good for an Oma visit at all. Huge trough opening up across the Tasman Sea with a huge new high coming in across the bight. Funny how much some people despise the Tasman Sea high when it's actually a trough that blasts it away.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 18:11

I'll have a closer look tonight but iirc the SSTs through the Tasman and Coral Seas are very similar to this time last year when NZ had multiple ex cyclone impacts Most pronounced being that big warm blob in the Tasman Sea. I don't think it's a coincidence that the same is about to happen.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 19:18

Does this region sometimes get very wet winters ?
I mean is a wet winter out of the question?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 19:24

Originally Posted By: crikey
Does this region sometimes get very wet winters ?
I mean is a wet winter out of the question?

Yep sometimes. One of the more memorable ones included over 770mm in 24hrs at Coops Corner during the severe Sunshine Coast floods of August 2007 caused by an intense ECL. Thatís at the upper end of the scale though.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 19:32

Ok Thanks for that KEN
BTW. The AAO has just plummeted in the past few days from pos +2 to zero/neutral
and the AAO has been highly positive during our stalled synoptic pattern and east coast ridging.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/verf/new.aao.shtml

I am sure there will be other variables.

I love the way the westerly belt responds immediately with a nice big cold front . Snowed at mount buller ( see jane bunns weather twitter account
Tasmanian alps got heaps

Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 20:29

And rain is just a far away dream right now.
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 21:09

BOM forecast for brisbane tomorrow is "cloudy" and 31. In the new forecast this means overcast. Where on earth is this comin from. Hope it happens though. And agree with others how warm the south Easters have been this year.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 21:38

Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
BOM forecast for brisbane tomorrow is "cloudy" and 31. In the new forecast this means overcast. Where on earth is this comin from. Hope it happens though. And agree with others how warm the south Easters have been this year.


Have you even looked at the set-up or just want to have a BOM bash again? The forecast is spot on for the set-up. Watch and see tomorrow.
Posted by: Warloq01

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 13/02/2019 22:03

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94580.shtml

FNQ weather right there for us Gold Coasters. Last night I have to say, was very uncomfortable for those without aircon. The humidity and dew point atm is quite impressive, bear in mind, we have no wind in the hinterland.
Posted by: james1977

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 07:03

Woke up at 5am and the temp was still 27.4 with 60% humidity. I also see that 35+ temp are in the forecast for next week as well. Donít mind the heat when you get a good storm or a bit of rain as a reward but the hot dry rubbish is giving me the [censored]
Posted by: mammatus meestrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 07:42

Nice solid showery pattern set up here at the moment.

The typical summer rainfall we have completely missed this year: moist SE winds from a fresh ridge bringing stream showers.

If we got 5 or 10 mm that would be nice.
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 08:42

Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
I am waiting for someone to rage against my harping on the drought that is slowly but surely chocking northern NSW and Southern QLD. Apart from the fortunate SE QLD coast probably record rain deficiencies are developing for the last 4 months even right to the coast now in NE NSW. It seems to have been forgotten at the moment, but it will become stark reality when this month ends. Of course, I am hoping some big rain event happens soon. If not, someone may think, "that whinging jerk NSPete was right. But I hope I am totally wrong.
Cheers everyone.


Its just miserable on the Downs at the moment isnt it. My poor garden which I've put thousands of hours into and also thousands of dollars into, is slowly but surely dying. My water rates is going to be astronomical this period. My summer rainfall total will be less then 50mm. You can handle getting that over the winter period but to get that over the past two summers has been devastating. Large gum trees are dying all over the place, its depressing. Whilst I do get annoyed at the state of my garden, I realize I dont draw an income from it like the poor farmers to my west.

I believe Toowoomba has started (or are about to start) pumping from wivenhoe dam, I think the 40% water level is the threshold for it to start.
Posted by: Adam Ant

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 08:53

Originally Posted By: crikey
Does this region sometimes get very wet winters ?
I mean is a wet winter out of the question?


To add to Kens example, the May 1996 event was also significant. I believe it was an ECL. That event got me interested in the weather. My dads rainfall station at Withcott recorded over 500mm in the 6 days and is still the highest monthly total he has recorded there in over 40 years (beating the 2010/11 floods)

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weath..._stn_num=040672


Heres a link to BOMs report
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/fld_reports/se_qld_may1996.pdf


2016 was a fairly decent winter rainfall season also for this area. Over 300mm was recorded from June to September, traditionally our driest months. There were some fantastic winter crops that year.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 08:56

Yes, Adam Ant, I have not been west for a while, out of my slightly better off eastern area. But I found quite a long article yesterday about how bad the drought is in the Lockyer Valley(and probably the west side of the Brisbane River valley) as well.
Cheers
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 08:59

Just showing my age again, but my earliest ECL memory was July 1965 then a couple of huge events in June '67. Maybe RWN remembers them as well.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 09:15

There were 3 in June 67. The first was over the Queens Birthday weekend, which set numerous June monthly and 24 hour records in SEQ, yet to be broken. I was stuck in a train coming back from Toowoomba and then waded waist deep across the soon to be Expo site to South Brisbane station. Finally a 3 hour rail motor ride home to Manly ( 13 miles ) with a maintenance gang riding in the front compartment of the Rail Motor getting out each time to clean off flood debris that was across the tracks.

The July 65 ECL saw Brisbane record a record low max temp of 11 deg, plus highest ever 24 hour rain for July. Snow noted on ranges west of Mackay. Snow dusting melted on impact at Richmond, and a near zero min temp at a station on the Cape.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 09:42

Thanks, RWM. Amazing events.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 13:28

Looks like developing model agreement for Oma to swing past Brisbane into the graveyard. Will be the closest severe TC to threaten SEQ in a long time. FV3 still persisting with a Rockhampton crossing so maybe there is still some hope.
Posted by: Stephen

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 14:12

Every run seems to be bringing Oma a lot closer however, so if this continues, it wouldnít take much change to see her come ashore in our part of the world.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 16:18

If GFS comes off then I am 100% coming down to chase that.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 16:27

Lol...just imagine. 5% chance at the moment.
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 16:28

00Z drops Oma right on top of SE QLD with potentially major storm surge issues on approach given the high tides around 20-21st February.

As Stephen said recent GFS runs have been creeping closer and closer.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 16:32





Above are the latest 10-day forecast members from various ensembles using the EC ensemble, GFS ensemble, UK ensemble, CMC ensemble, etc for TC Oma colour-coded according to intensity (but using the Saffir Simpson scale, not our scale). The "warmer" the colour, the more intense the system.
Posted by: mammatus meestrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 16:37

wow, thats impressive
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 16:37

Interesting indeed probably not going east for abit. Second system SE of Fiji might be one to watch aswell.
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 17:16

Ken, are the more easterly tracks mainly EC or does GFS have a wide spread.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 17:35

We deserve a massive tropical system around here so everyone start doing some tribal stuff like chanting your mantras to the weather Gods or hugging a tree or something 😃
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 18:01

EC still waaaay offshore. Damn.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 18:05

ICON (which has been impressive for this one and was just as good with Owen) has it approaching Fraser Island. EC ensembles will be very interesting in an hour or so just to see if there's any trend west amongst ensemble members.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 18:09

Think general consensus would be a S to SW track.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 18:50

No shift west in EC ensemble members this evening...if anything, slightly further east than this morning.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 18:58

EC: Into the graveyard.
GFS: Hovers offshore SEQ with a cross in NE NSW and swing back out
GFS FV3: Severe TC impact on Rockhampton.
Access-G: Washes out and remnants head up NW toward N QLD possibly re-strengthening

Some big differences. That's almost a spread in every single direction. I think we're still in the game as long until the inevitable model shift to the graveyard. It was looking like that earlier but some hope now.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 19:08

I really should stop getting my hopes up as this cyclone is likely not going to come anywhere near us, but there are a lot of similarities to this:

http://hardenup.org/umbraco/customContent/media/620_GoldCoast_Cyclone_1954.pdf

Similar track path as what GFS is suggesting. Same month. Even almost the same day.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 19:09

Pretty major shift west in this afternoon's UKMET too for what it's worth though it only goes out to 144 hrs.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 19:12

Originally Posted By: Mega
Pretty major shift west in this afternoon's UKMET too for what it's worth though it only goes out to 144 hrs.


Where do you access that? I use Tropical Tidbits and it doesn't have it.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 19:13

CFS picking up on the possible cyclone impact:

Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 19:15

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Mega
Pretty major shift west in this afternoon's UKMET too for what it's worth though it only goes out to 144 hrs.


Where do you access that? I use Tropical Tidbits and it doesn't have it.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/warnings and click on South Pacific and south-east Indian. It's only the co-ords in a text file though. Updates around 2pm & 2am.

https://weathermodels.com/ has the actual charts but you gotta pay for the month.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 19:19

So looking at 4 day BOM chart (Monday) you would think there is every chance of this thing heading towards Rocky or does the new high push it SE?
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 19:25

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
So looking at 4 day BOM chart (Monday) you would think there is every chance of this thing heading towards Rocky or does the new high push it SE?


I would think the bigger problem is the approaching trough next week. It's the high pressure ridge that sends it west, but the trough would push it down toward the south/east.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 19:30

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
So looking at 4 day BOM chart (Monday) you would think there is every chance of this thing heading towards Rocky or does the new high push it SE?


As NF mentioned, a lot depends on the timing and amplitude of the upper trough.

When it comes to TC's, always remember that they're mainly steered by the flow through a layer in the low or middle levels of the atmosphere (generally higher/deeper for intense TC's and lower/shallower for weak TC's) blowing around the periphery of systems such as midlevel ridges and upper troughs, and also deep strong monsoonal flows - not just surface systems. Surface charts alone don't always tell the full story.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 20:29

Excellent information - many thanks. How would one view mid and upper level charts? Are they available on BOM site?
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 20:32

Also, in terms of lower, mid and upper levels - what are we talking in metres(approx)
Posted by: Noctilucent

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 21:09

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
I really should stop getting my hopes up as this cyclone is likely not going to come anywhere near us, but there are a lot of similarities to this:

http://hardenup.org/umbraco/customContent/media/620_GoldCoast_Cyclone_1954.pdf

Similar track path as what GFS is suggesting. Same month. Even almost the same day.

Also Interestingly similar dry summer lead up, at least for Northern NSW
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 22:59

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
likely not going to come anywhere near us, but there are a lot of similarities to this:

http://hardenup.org/umbraco/customContent/media/620_GoldCoast_Cyclone_1954.pdf

Similar track path as what GFS is suggesting. Same month. Even almost the same day.


that report puts a bit of perspective into how people are unprepared for "exceptional" events:



as bad as things are, i don't get why we live like termites, in the most retarded parts of this country.

what the hell is going to happen there in a cyclone impact, or the gold and sunshine coast for that matter. frown
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 23:05

We will get another severe TC hit SEQ one day, even if it probably won't be next week. Enjoy the beach if you can this weekend because that cyclone is going to cause massive erosion as it slides by.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 14/02/2019 23:29

The largest rainfall flood to impact Gold Coast was June 1967 - it was an ECL. Like a winter version of tropical cyclone.
Posted by: Sillybanter

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 08:14

Early days I know but if this cyclone does a close approach and then heads SE towards New Zealand rainfall chances for the very dry areas of southern Qld and Northern NSW take a big hit. With the dominance and slow movement of this system of the last few weeks you have to get the feeling that there may not be another chance this summer.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 08:25







Originally Posted By: Sillybanter
Early days I know but if this cyclone does a close approach and then heads SE towards New Zealand rainfall chances for the very dry areas of southern Qld and Northern NSW take a big hit. With the dominance and slow movement of this system of the last few weeks you have to get the feeling that there may not be another chance this summer.


Yep, the only way we'd get a lot of rain or wind from it is if it comes very close or approaches the coast to our north. If it doesn't, winds will eventually take on a drier more southerly component and cause even less shower activity for most of the land.
Big swells/beach erosion and some strong winds around the islands and coastal fringe still possible though.

Above is the latest 10-day EC accumulated rainfall and accumulated rainfall scenarios from some of the models for Brisbane (brown = ICON):
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 08:25

Originally Posted By: Sillybanter
Early days I know but if this cyclone does a close approach and then heads SE towards New Zealand rainfall chances for the very dry areas of southern Qld and Northern NSW take a big hit. With the dominance and slow movement of this system of the last few weeks you have to get the feeling that there may not be another chance this summer.


GFS now in alignment with EC into the graveyard. Ext forecasts suggest onshore showers are our only rain for the next 2 weeks. All over now you'd think.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 08:47

WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..15 FEB 2019 TIME..0745

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......25.4C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........60%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 17C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... SE 22kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1018.6Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........15KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........3/8 cloud, haze..
RAIN SINCE 0900 THURSDAY...0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......31.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....22.6C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.2C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....19C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1015.5Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..SE 50kph at 1145
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Haze.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 08:50

It seems the regional papers up here have gone into denial about drought. Unfortunately with(Seemingly) now no prospects of a break in Feb it is going to be starkly shoved right back into focus when the weather statistics are collated for Nov-Feb. On that cheery note just have to wait and wait for something in March.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 09:03

Makes you wonder why eh.I feel for you people out there it's bad enough on the coast.We shouldn't complain around here because we've got an exciting onshore shower or two to look forward to in the coming weeks.Without a doubt the most boring summer I've ever lived through from a stormchaser's perspective.
Posted by: KevD

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 09:31

That system is likely to be a feature that brings little but swell, and sucks any tropical moisture away from us and down towards NZ...who likely need it with their own fires...doesnít help us though. Sooner it buggers off the better.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 09:34

Fingers crossed for a wet winter.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 11:53

NZ gets more TCs than us lol

I also love how we get a ridge that sits there for the most of summer but the moment there's a potential TC impact...here comes a big trough to blast it away. The timing is just impeccable.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 12:07

Apart from the well known exceptional events, I think that setup you described Mega became fairly standard from the late 1970's.
Chris, we need a wet Autumn!
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 13:15

It seems like we're stuck in a dormant area between weather systems.
Posted by: Warloq01

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 16:07

https://www.abc.net.au/news/emergency/20...ry-1954/5266720
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 16:40

My father lives in Northern NSW betweeen Drake and Tabulum. He just told me the fire that was on the news yesterday flared up again today. Roads closed, Emergency Warning issued as below.

**********
A bush fire is burning near the Bruxner Highway, west of Tabulam. The fire has burnt more than 4,000ha.

Current Situation

There is an increase of fire activity on the western side of the fireground.

Firefighters are in position to protect properties and will be assisted by aircraft. More crews are being deployed to the area.

Advice

If you are in the area of the Bruxner Highway, Old Bruxner Road and Sugarbag Road area, it is too late to leave. Shelter in place and protect yourself from the heat of the fire.

If you are in the area of Leslie Creek Road, Odriscoll Road and Fairfield Road, it is too late to leave. Shelter in place and protect yourself from the heat of the fire.

If you are in the areas of Mud Flat Road and Patemans Road, monitor the situation and know what you will do if the fire approaches.

Bruxner Highway is now closed.

Some schools in the area may be closed today. For more details visit https://education.nsw.gov.au/public-scho...t/school-safety
**********
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 16:45







Originally Posted By: Locke
Ken, are the more easterly tracks mainly EC or does GFS have a wide spread.


The GFS ensemble using those runs had a wider spread than the EC ensemble - see 1st map above.

Here's my current thoughts based on last night's 12z runs which I've posted elsewhere but will post on here as well:

WHAT WE DO KNOW:
1). The most likely scenario currently still involves the system staying out to sea (although it could eventually come close enough to the SW Coral Sea/NW Tasman Sea before curving away to cause powerful surf & strong winds) but this isn't set in stone yet so we'll be keeping an eye on it just in case this changes.
.......If this scenario eventuates, it'll eventually deflect the winds to take on a drier more southerly component over SEQ which means even less rainfall chances for us (apart from the a bit of shower activity possibly developing around the islands & coastal fringe) until winds become more onshore again.

2). Powerful surf's likely to start ramping up along the beaches from midweek & last for a number of days with possible beach erosion.
3). While very windy conditions could eventually start developing later this week into the early weekend along the southern QLD coast/northern NSW coast especially around the islands, coastline & exposed terrain, this depends on Oma's exact track (e.g. if Oma stays further out to sea than expected, winds won't be as strong).
4). Oma's likely to be one of those southwestern Pacific TC's whose tracks follow a big lopsided back-to-front "S" shape as it drifts further south over the ocean.

WHAT WE DON'T KNOW (YET):
1) Precisely how far away or close the system will come.
2) How long Oma will stay a TC before it transitions into an extratropical (non-tropical) but still strong system as it moves further south.

Oma's likely to initially slowly drift in an overall SW or S direction (although very erratic movements are possible at first due to competing steering influences) through this weekend into the first half of next week .... before possibly curving towards a more S then SE direction, steered in part by a ridge in the middle levels of the atmosphere to its northeast and an upper level trough approaching from Australia.

One of the sources of uncertainty that's common with TC's trying to approach the east coast is the timing of approaching upper troughs and how far north they reach. If these troughs are slower or stay further south than expected, they can allow TC's to continue drifting closer than expected to the coast or even reach it (that's a much less likely scenario atm though).... but when they're faster or reach further north than expected, they often tend to capture TC's and drag them away before they get anywhere near the coast.
The stronger shear ahead of these upper troughs as well as cooler waters as the systems head further south will also be factors in determining exactly where Oma will transition from a TC into a non-tropical system.

From my experience, a big proportion of TC's that have done the big reversed S shape track over waters to the east of Australia (i.e. gone all the way out to near Vanuatu then tried to make the long trek back in towards the coast) have eventually curved away from southern QLD/northern NSW once they get this far south.... but there's always exceptions to this.

But before all this, some parts of the Vanuatu Islands and then New Caledonia will have to endure damaging winds and flooding rain as Oma moves through the area.

On a final note for those of you who may be newcomers to following model forecasts for TC tracks, always remember that a middle-of-the-ground or consensus approach using many models tends to end up being the most accurate method in real life (on average) rather than relying on a single model on its own.
There's always exceptions of course and sometimes, TC's can even wander just outside of the range of forecast tracks from multiple models but in the majority of cases, TC tracks end up being somewhere near the middle of that range (and somewhat biased towards the more accurate model/s). It's also important to use human knowledge and experience to adjust these tracks when it's justified.

So in a nutshell, the only way SEQ would get any decent rain from it is if it comes very close or approaches the coast just to our north (both scenarios not impossible but not that likely either).... otherwise, it'll just be dry weather for most of the time (but big swells and gusty winds developing).

Here's a map via NOAA showing the track scenarios currently suggested by some of the models out to 10 days colour-coded according to intensity.
I haven't included the intensity colour scale itself because it uses the Saffir-Simpson intensity scale which we don't use here but generally speaking, the "warmer" the colour, the more intense the system.
The black line leading up to the current position of TC Oma shows its past track up until now.

Models used include all members of the EC ensemble, GFS ensemble, UK ensemble, CMC ensemble, FNMOC ensemble, etc as well as the mean tracks using various combinations of those ensembles.
Posted by: Taylsy

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 16:54

"Mt Staplyton radar is scheduled for routine maintenance. There may be intermittent outages from 18-22th February 2019. During this time please access nearby Marburg Radar in addition to high resolution satellite imagery."

A bit like washing the car or hanging out the washing, in the forlorn hope that rain is sure to follow.

The 18th to the 22nd February roughly coincides with Oma's tantalising approach and vanishing act - maybe a bit of reverse psychology at play? wink wink
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 17:13

Great summary of this teasing weather event to come Ken.Some very interesting information indeed.We need a miracle but as you say nothing is beyond the realms of disbelief when it comes to exact movements of cyclones.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 17:22

Status of Tabulum fire has been updated at 17:03pm AEDT to status of "Out of control"
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 17:46

Big tides mid-week will be amplified by constant strong SE winds and swell as well.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 17:51

Latest EC has it very close to the coast again. It takes a more SW trajectory and stays far enough north to miss the shortwave. A new ridge builds underneath it and traps it. Also note an extension of the shortwave actually regresses west during this time as well. Very complex situation if Oma can hang north a little while longer though it's only one run and it could be just a one-off by the Euro.

edit: EC crossing the GC lol
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 17:55

And with a big fat high cradling it.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 17:55

Is your father in any danger Flowin?
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 17:57

GFS FV3 is still holding on a SE QLD/NE NSW crossing, but the trend has been significantly eastward in the curve. Last night it was still persisting with a Rockhampton crossing.



It's amazing just how different the GFS and GFS FV3 forecasts are for this system.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 18:00

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
GFS FV3 is still holding on a SE QLD/NE NSW crossing, but the trend has been significantly eastward in the curve. Last night it was still persisting with a Rockhampton crossing.



It's amazing just how different the GFS and GFS FV3 forecasts are for this system.


That is identical to 00z EC only EC is 240hrs out and that is 210hrs out.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 18:03

Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Is your father in any danger Flowin?

No he is fine
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 18:03

Only in the crossing Mega. EC has a very sharp angled approach to GC, whereas GFS FV3 keeps the cyclone further north and west with a more gentle angled approach (swiping the coast and then crossing). I would prefer the latter because it means troughing might be less of an issue. On EC's forecast it would be so easy for a stronger than expected or further northward than expected trough to nudge the cyclone out of the way.

Amazing that this morning it looked like game over for SEQ/NE NSW and now we're back in the game. Such a marginal situation though. So much has to go right for us to get a hit.

Also can we just take a second and appreciate that this cyclone is the very same monsoonal low that caused the Townsville and western Queensland floods. If this system actually hit SEQ/NENSW it would be quite possibly the most stunning weather event in Australia's history.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 18:52

EC ensemble members are definitely more split this evening, though still a fair few members heading to the graveyard:

Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 18:57

Thanks 'guys' for answering my question about rain events in winter for this region. I put your comments together started a blog post for my records
https://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2019...land-australia/

Thanks Colin M for your research on how many towns over 40 deg the other day. I was absolutely amazed.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 19:11

ACCESS R not showing any precipitation signal for any of our area in the next 3 days.It was very windy here on the tweed today.
Looking at the gradient wind map . I believe it is fair to say that the strong breeze is related to the massive input band from TC OMA The gradient wind map shows the pulling effect from OMA's rotation . The wind being drawn into the massive rotation going on in the coral sea.
We are getting the SW flank of OMA's outer periphery
. This looks to happen all week for the coast.
Has the wind managed to penetrate to the ranges and west of?

check out the size of OMA's control of the wind in the coral and Nth tasman. wow!

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 19:18

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
this cyclone is the very same monsoonal low that caused the Townsville and western Queensland floods. If this system actually hit SEQ/NENSW it would be quite possibly the most stunning weather event in Australia's history.

Not enough consensus yet in the models I think to get interested enough about potential close travel to SEQ.
But regardless of that if that system even goes to the graveyard away from us, but on the way causes havoc to New Caledonia and NZ... it may get into global history for a southern hemisphere severe weather event. As Crikey said, it appears to have a grip on a big area feeding it.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 19:32

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury


Also can we just take a second and appreciate that this cyclone is the very same monsoonal low that caused the Townsville and western Queensland floods. If this system actually hit SEQ/NENSW it would be quite possibly the most stunning weather event in Australia's history.


I thought it might be, but wikipedia article and the thread in this forum for the system have it beginning in the coral sea. Is this because it was never an invest while near NE Qld? Does anyone have a clear record of this being the same system?
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 19:32

If others not aware BoM today issued a special climate statement today about the extraordinary rain and floods late Jan to early Feb, for which the impacts are continuing today as floodwaters are draining away.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs69.pdf
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 19:49

The fires in northern NSW Tabulum to Tenterfield area were clearly evident in smoke extents on the 4 to 5 pm satellite images today. While we can look with interest at TC Oma, broad areas are at risk of fire. Many areas of our landscape are bone dry and vegetation is suffering or dead. The poor vegetation health on bone dry soil does not want a heavy downpour but rather slow soaking leadin rain. Heavy rain on bone dry soil is harsh for the landscape and erosion. Worst still though is heavy rain on a just burnt landscape. Impacts much beyond erosion and water quality impacts become more broad and penetrating in their impacts. Whatever weather breaks our current drought or near drought conditions in some of the more luckier areas that have had some rain, I very much hope it is slow soaking rain.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 15/02/2019 20:16

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury


Also can we just take a second and appreciate that this cyclone is the very same monsoonal low that caused the Townsville and western Queensland floods. If this system actually hit SEQ/NENSW it would be quite possibly the most stunning weather event in Australia's history.


I thought it might be, but wikipedia article and the thread in this forum for the system have it beginning in the coral sea. Is this because it was never an invest while near NE Qld? Does anyone have a clear record of this being the same system?


I'm pretty sure that's because it was never an invest. It's the exact same system.
Posted by: BrisWeatherNerd

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 08:11

Definitely still the same...I've looked at the analysis charts for the last month on the BOM site and this confirms it.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 08:18

EC this morning this has Oma on a beeline for SEQ next weekend. Yes, a long way off but very interesting. Worth watching I recon.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 08:20

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
EC this morning this has Oma on a beeline for SEQ next weekend. Yes, a long way off but very interesting. Worth watching I recon.

Yep still almost identical to yesterdayís 00z run.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 08:49

Still very skeptical even if its EC, it will swing away they always do. I'm now at 20% chance.
Posted by: james1977

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 08:54

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
EC this morning this has Oma on a beeline for SEQ next weekend. Yes, a long way off but very interesting. Worth watching I recon.


I welcome oma, but not as a strong system but rather a rain depression or low end cat 1. This will most likely the last change to get any decent rains before winter time for many people. If we donít get rain before winter the situation will become dire.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 08:54

WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE..16 FEB 2019 TIME..0745

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......25.6C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........60%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 17C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... SSW 12kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1017.9Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........25KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........1/8 cloud, haze..
RAIN SINCE 0900 FRIDAY...0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......30.5C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....20.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...17.1C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....16C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1017.5Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..S 50kph at 1750
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Haze.

......First pangs of Autumn........
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 08:56

Whats the point of rain if there's carnage all around. Cat 1 would cause serious problems I think and it won't put rain where it's needed unless it goes further north and further inland.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 08:57

Originally Posted By: james1977
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
EC this morning this has Oma on a beeline for SEQ next weekend. Yes, a long way off but very interesting. Worth watching I recon.


I welcome oma, but not as a strong system but rather a rain depression or low end cat 1. This will most likely the last change to get any decent rains before winter time for many people. If we donít get rain before winter the situation will become dire.


Maybe, but there's also been enough past cases of decent rain events outside of the summer months to not write everything off yet.
Posted by: james1977

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 08:59

Originally Posted By: Steve O
Whats the point of rain if there's carnage all around. Cat 1 would cause serious problems I think and it won't put rain where it's needed unless it goes further north and further inland.

Thereís bound to be floods regardless of when this drought breaks, thatís what happens. Drought, floods, drought again common knowledge
Posted by: james1977

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 09:01

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: james1977
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
EC this morning this has Oma on a beeline for SEQ next weekend. Yes, a long way off but very interesting. Worth watching I recon.


I welcome oma, but not as a strong system but rather a rain depression or low end cat 1. This will most likely the last change to get any decent rains before winter time for many people. If we donít get rain before winter the situation will become dire.


Maybe, but there's also been enough past cases of decent rain events outside of the summer months to not write everything off yet.

Maybe so ken, but rain in the winter months donít do much good for grass growth. In fact it can actually be detrimental to grass as it can make what Feed left turn black and rendered useless
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 09:01

Originally Posted By: james1977
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Whats the point of rain if there's carnage all around. Cat 1 would cause serious problems I think and it won't put rain where it's needed unless it goes further north and further inland.

Thereís bound to be floods regardless of when this drought breaks, thatís what happens. Drought, floods, drought again common knowledge


Seems legit..
Posted by: Timbuck

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 09:47


Thereís bound to be floods regardless of when this drought breaks, thatís what happens. Drought, floods, drought again common knowledge [/quote]

100% agree James. It been happening for ever before any of white fellaís where hear. growing up in kyogle and learning from Bundjalung people there where plenty of hard times and plenty of very very wet times long before we started to right stuff on paper about weather. Yes they are dream time stories passed in.....BUT also have a lot of credit to them. Rivers running dry etc and some local areaís they gathered in floods where underwater well above 54 and 74. Just interesting stuff.

I asked the question a few weeks ago for all the number crunchers on here but never got a answer.
I just thought it would be an interesting topic... how many dry or below average rain times or droughtís are broken with average rain compaired to floods etc. or a major event

Cheers

Tim
Posted by: RC

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 11:02

Originally Posted By: james1977
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Whats the point of rain if there's carnage all around. Cat 1 would cause serious problems I think and it won't put rain where it's needed unless it goes further north and further inland.

Thereís bound to be floods regardless of when this drought breaks, thatís what happens. Drought, floods, drought again common knowledge


I do not think that is normal. You have to define "floods" also.

Getting a dollop of rain then an urban area floods because they built up creeks and laid down huge areas of concrete and bitumen is not a natural flood event. We know the Townsville rain event damage was man made. If people only built on hills then the water would have run off down the natural creeks. If it happened in less inhabited areas where heavy rain events are common it would barely make a mention anywhere.

The last x amount of years have been unusual because of the persistent failures. It is not like we get a failure one season, but the next is good. We are getting year on year failures for what four or five years now. It used to be reasonably confident you could plant a summer crop and you would get something on it to make it grow. Recently it has been a complete gamble. There is no longer any confidence in the weather.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 11:37

It's EC out on a pretty big limb right. Surely it will join the others in the graveyard any run now.

Looking ahead at the weeks and month ahead there is very little rain forecast on the models. Continuing dry to come.
Posted by: Stephen

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 11:57

Haha although I know what you mean with EC being an outlier with its current trajectory, I canít help but find it funny that no matter which model it is that predicts the biggest impact, it is always wrong according to certain members here. I remember times when GFS and ACCESS G were all predicting big events but EC wasnít and some people on here would be saying ďOH the others are wrong, even though EC is the only one not showing an impact, it picks up these events better etc.Ē. Now the tables have turned and EC shows an impact, and all of a sudden itís not as reliable as usual? Donít worry I know itís more about ensembles, and watching a range of models as opposed to just one, but still makes me laugh.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 12:02

Hello Queenslander chasers ...About Cyclone watch ,Weatherzone keep changing GFS and Wind chat looks right so it make both look confusing.

SO what your way track cyclone before 1 week later.
Thank you.



Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 12:02

Originally Posted By: Stephen
Haha although I know what you mean with EC being an outlier with its current trajectory, I canít help but find it funny that no matter which model it is that predicts the biggest impact, it is always wrong according to certain members here. I remember times when GFS and ACCESS G were all predicting big events but EC wasnít and some people on here would be saying ďOH the others are wrong, even though EC is the only one not showing an impact, it picks up these events better etc.Ē. Now the tables have turned and EC shows an impact, and all of a sudden itís not as reliable as usual? Donít worry I know itís more about ensembles, and watching a range of models as opposed to just one, but still makes me laugh.


Also good to remember the "often but not always" principle when it comes to comparing the accuracy of various models. Statistically on average, EC outperforms all the other global models in most regions of the world for most parameters and has consistently done so for decades but that doesn't mean it's always more accurate than other models. It's only when you look at a large sample size of runs that it becomes evident.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 12:02

Originally Posted By: Stephen
Haha although I know what you mean with EC being an outlier with its current trajectory, I canít help but find it funny that no matter which model it is that predicts the biggest impact, it is always wrong according to certain members here. I remember times when GFS and ACCESS G were all predicting big events but EC wasnít and some people on here would be saying ďOH the others are wrong, even though EC is the only one not showing an impact, it picks up these events better etc.Ē. Now the tables have turned and EC shows an impact, and all of a sudden itís not as reliable as usual? Donít worry I know itís more about ensembles, and watching a range of models as opposed to just one, but still makes me laugh.


Could easily say the same thing about people who always think the model that shows the biggest impact will be right. And then when it's usually not, you don't hear from them again until the next one. Wink wink.

We look at ensembles and various other models to draw a conclusion. If one model is off (like GFS was with Owen and like EC is now) then of course we're going to have doubts no matter which model it is.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 12:05

Hello Queenslander chasers ...About Cyclone watch ,Weatherzone keep changing GFS chart and Wind chat looks right so it make both look confusing.

Low is moving away and or Low moving into SE inland??

SO what your way track cyclone before 1 week later.
Thank you.
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 12:06

Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Stephen
Haha although I know what you mean with EC being an outlier with its current trajectory, I canít help but find it funny that no matter which model it is that predicts the biggest impact, it is always wrong according to certain members here. I remember times when GFS and ACCESS G were all predicting big events but EC wasnít and some people on here would be saying ďOH the others are wrong, even though EC is the only one not showing an impact, it picks up these events better etc.Ē. Now the tables have turned and EC shows an impact, and all of a sudden itís not as reliable as usual? Donít worry I know itís more about ensembles, and watching a range of models as opposed to just one, but still makes me laugh.


Could easily say the same thing about people who always think the model that shows the biggest impact will be right. And then when it's usually not, you don't hear from them again until the next one. Wink wink.


I would expect the models showing landfall to get attention. This is not an indication of how accurate people think the model run is, rather that the model run is showing something of actual interest.

Of course the one that shows the possible disastrous impact will grab the attention. A lot of people have little interest in fish storms.
Posted by: Stephen

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 12:24

Haha no need for winking. I donít do what you said some people do. But come on, ECMWF showing a cyclone going into the graveyard is usually taken as gospel by many people here.........until it sends it somewhere else and it becomes junk. Just stating what I see as a frequent reader here. Will be interesting to see the development over the next few runs, and I donít have any bets on whether EC will shift it further east it west, just watching with interest either way.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 12:36

They said on the news last night Brisbane will be on water restrictions by March 2020 if it doesn't rain properly soon and that SEQ is only a matter of weeks away from a drought declaration.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 13:04





Above are the latest 10 to 16 day probabilities of wetter or drier than normal conditions from the EC ensemble. Not good.

Even if Oma or ex-Oma does manage to rain on SE QLD/NE NSW, it'll probably be right at the start or just before that time period.

P.S. Timbuck, I'm not even aware of any stats that are kept for that sort of thing. But it would be interesting. My subjective feeling is that a lot of severe drought conditions do break with a big flood but then again, it could be that many people only remember the times that occurs (because such a big sudden change is more memorable) but not all the other times that it's ended in a gradual modest way.
Posted by: Stephen

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 13:20

Thatís such a sad outlook Ken. I miss the years of getting a storm each day for almost a week at a time. Hope something gives quick, so bored of this weather, or rather the lack of.
Posted by: planet x

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 16:12

My instincts are with windy.com
https://www.windy.com/?2019-02-25-00,-27.528,152.869,7

I think we are in for a ride.

Is it possible the equator is moving a little south??

Or is this just a repeat of this:

"CASE STUDY: Gold Coast Cyclone, February 1954

By Mr Jeff Callaghan
Retired Senior Severe Weather Forecaster, Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane

Around 10pm 20 February 1954 a severe tropical cyclone crossed the coast at the border Twin Towns of Coolangatta Tweed Heads. The large circulation of the cyclone is illustrated in Figure 1 which led to very damaging waves and storm surges. The close spacing of the isobars indicates the very destructive wind zone near the centre of the cyclone. These weather charts indicate that the cyclone approached the Gold Coast-Tweed area from the north northeast to be overland west of Coffs Harbour by 3pm 21 February 1954.

Record rainfall accompanied the cyclone and as an example 900 mm of rain were recorded at Springbrook in the 24 hour period up to landfall (see Figure 2). Floods combined with storm surge and cyclonic winds resulted in some 26 to 30 people losing their lives. In the worst hit areas of Northern NSW flood waters began to rapidly rise around 7pm 20 February which was some 3 hours before landfall. Figure 2 shows the 24 hour rainfall distribution around the worst affected areas while Figure 3 highlights the catchment areas.

Central Pressure
At Coolangatta there was a pressure in the eye of 973 hPa. Some reports from the Coolangatta/Tweed Heads area had pressure readings to 962 hPa. The cyclone centre passed well to the east of Brisbane however a record low pressure reading of 982.7 hPa was recorded at the Weather Bureau in the City. At the Airport the mean seal level pressure was measured at 6pm at 981.8hPa (1.4hPa lower than the City reading at the time) so the lowest reading in Brisbane was probably 981.3hPa. At Cape Moreton Lighthouse (outside the eye) the lowest mean sea level pressure read was 978.0hPa at 3pm. "
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 19:02

Fires today at Tabulam and Wallangara still burning.
Tabulam is at Watch and Act status.
Wallangara is at Advice status.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 20:41

The Wallangarra fire impact is now at over 30,000 ha.. heard on the news this is still burning in Girraween national park
The Tabulam fire impact is 5,900 ha, it was around 4000 ha yesterday.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 21:16

Is this the consequence of a fire that originally started at Tabulam that was not a fire that started naturally????
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 21:22

I don't know about what started Wallangarra fire. I had heard on the news that Tabulam fire may not have been a naturally started.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 16/02/2019 21:28

Terrible. Three quarts of the country cooked by fire a drought the other quarter flooded out!
Posted by: Timbuck

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 06:32


The fire at Tabulam was started by a lady burning rubbish in a 44 gallon drum.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 08:50

WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE..17 FEB 2019 TIME..0745

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......24.6C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........62%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 17C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... SSW 13kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1014.7Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........1/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900 SATURDAY..0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......31.1C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....18.0C ( cooling down )
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...17.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....16C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1015.6Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 39kph at 1029
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... No significant weather..

......Early pangs of Autumn........
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 08:52

Good old media....This mornings Sunday Mail has OMA just about on top of Brisbane Mon 25th.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 08:59

EC now sending her NW towards Townsville.
LOL, models got no idea.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 09:03

Mad Elf.

My guess for that EC version, is that the closer OMA gets to SEQ the more it will be battling 30 to 40 knot westerlies above 25,000ft which should eventually shear off the top half which usually then heads to NZ, leaving the bottom section to the mercy of the Qld Ridge which would tend to push the remnants more northwards again by riding the ridge.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 09:03

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
EC now sending her NW towards Townsville.
LOL, models got no idea.

Did you have a look at the multiple scenarios map posted the other day? There's always been fairly high confidence of Oma heading S or SW initially but once it gets further south, that's where the scenarios start diverging... so that shouldn't come as any surprise.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 09:22

Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Good old media....This mornings Sunday Mail has OMA just about on top of Brisbane Mon 25th.

Someone should send a picture off to the media how fast it gets sucked into the sinkhole next week that would be more newsworthy
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 09:30

Cheers Ken & RWM.
Any which way, no worthwhile rain our way for another month.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 09:34

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Cheers Ken & RWM.
Any which way, no worthwhile rain our way for another month.

No worries. I like to think of it this way re Oma - we know that it'll probably head in a general SW or S direction initially... then once it gets into the southern Coral Sea, just keep an open mind from that stage as to what it'll do. Good old Coral Sea/northern Tasman Sea living up to its reputation.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 10:56

So it seems that the coastal areas south of Fraser Is to Coffs Harbour and adjacent inland will get decent showers and wind(according to WATL, that is). If that is all that happens, I wonder if it will be due to the fact that Oma has just wandered in circles instead of starting its SW movement late yesterday and overnight. Just a thought.
Posted by: AnnerleyX1

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 14:18

Interesting how since 2012, February in Brisbane has either been extremely wet (more than double the average) or one of the driest months of the year.

2013 - 250mm
2014 - 16mm
2015 - 275mm
2016 - 14mm
2017 - 31mm
2018 - 285mm
2019 - 37mm (so far)

Seems we increasingly rely on one big rain event rather than weeks of stormy afternoons to get our wet season rainfall here.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 14:55

So every model except GFS FV3 and EC send Oma into New Zealand. JWTC has finally given in and sends the TC toward NZ as well. Its cone of uncertainty doesn't even touch the coast anymore. GFS FV3 and EC swing it up back into the northern Coral Sea washing out off North Queensland. Either the trough captures the cyclone or the ridge is too strong and deflects it away from SEQ. So of all the possibilities an impact on SEQ is now the least likely.

What is it with these O-cyclones this season. First Owen and then Oma tease us. More like O for Obnoxious.

And just in case we get hopeful things might improve next month:



Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 15:46

As someone here mentioned previously . .The sooner it buggers off the better.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 16:18

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
So every model except GFS FV3 and EC send Oma into New Zealand. JWTC has finally given in and sends the TC toward NZ as well. Its cone of uncertainty doesn't even touch the coast anymore. GFS FV3 and EC swing it up back into the northern Coral Sea washing out off North Queensland. Either the trough captures the cyclone or the ridge is too strong and deflects it away from SEQ. So of all the possibilities an impact on SEQ is now the least likely.

What is it with these O-cyclones this season. First Owen and then Oma tease us. More like O for Obnoxious.

And just in case we get hopeful things might improve next month:





Add UKMET to the list sending it to NZ now too. That would make, what, two or three TC or ex-TC impacts on NZ since March last year? You really have to wonder...
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 17:58

00z EC once again trying to bring it ashore near the Wide Bay area albeit as a smaller system. The cat and mouse game continues.

I have a long held personal preference for the 12z runs of models rather than 00z but you just never know with an individual system.

Having said that, the latest track is still within the range of scenarios that have been forecast by its ensemble's members for quite awhile now so it's not too surprising that the deterministic version's been flip flopping around.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 19:36

Lots of bright colours on Windy EC 10day accumulated rain forecast. Ha, be dancing in rain naked if that happens.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 19:41

While I really have my doubts that we'll see this system come anywhere near SEQ, EC is doing its best to keep hope alive. In fact the scenario suggested by this evening's run is almost a worst-case scenario for SEQ. The shortwave trough is weaker than expected so the cyclone rides the ridge into WBB, but gets stuck over SEQ as its exit is blocked. The cyclone strikes WBB so all the rain is focused directly south over us. It then wobbles around SEQ for almost four days before exiting through Moreton Bay. This scenario would definitely cause at least moderate river flooding up and down SEQ. Weakening and slow-moving ex-TCs generally cause far more problems for SEQ than a quick severe impact.



Unlikely to happen though.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 19:42

Looking at WATL, it had only got upto 50mm for our parts so we know if a low came ashore it would definitely be upward of 200mm.. so I think at best an enhanced showery onshore flow with some modest instability at best.EC being the exception so I feel its best to look at the general consensus of models keeping Oma offshore. Once again close but no cigar.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 20:10




Meanwhile, EC's ensemble is still going for somewhat of a bifurcation with some of its tracks keeping it offshore and taking it towards New Zealand while some are trying to bring it ashore (and the remainder stalling it once it moves further south or taking its remains back up north a bit).

ECMO = the standard deterministic EC
ECME = the control (unperturbed) member of its ensemble
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 20:17

Please check your inbox Ken.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 20:22

Ken what is the difference between deterministic and ensemble?
Posted by: james1977

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 20:24

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
While I really have my doubts that we'll see this system come anywhere near SEQ, EC is doing its best to keep hope alive. In fact the scenario suggested by this evening's run is almost a worst-case scenario for SEQ. The shortwave trough is weaker than expected so the cyclone rides the ridge into WBB, but gets stuck over SEQ as its exit is blocked. The cyclone strikes WBB so all the rain is focused directly south over us. It then wobbles around SEQ for almost four days before exiting through Moreton Bay. This scenario would definitely cause at least moderate river flooding up and down SEQ. Weakening and slow-moving ex-TCs generally cause far more problems for SEQ than a quick severe impact.



Unlikely to happen though.




Such pretty colours
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 20:28

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Ken what is the difference between deterministic and ensemble?


Ken could answer this better than me but I believe the ensemble is just the average taken from all of its ensemble members put together. Deterministic is the main run.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 20:30

Wow, interesting few days to see if EC is leading the way or just keeping the forum busy.
Waiting for a Higgins led bread and milk frenzy
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 20:50

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Ken what is the difference between deterministic and ensemble?



In the context of a single model ensemble like the EC ensemble, it's when a single model like the EC (or any other model) is run multiple times to generate a range of scenarios (members).
The EC ensemble always generates 50 members. Each member starts off with slightly different initial states of the atmosphere and oceans. This is because we don't have obs data for every square inch of the whole planet (satellite data covers most of the planet but it has its own degree of uncertainties) - it's these uncertainties in the exact initial state of the atmosphere and oceans that grow and grow as you look further into the future and are one of the biggest contributions to increasing forecast error over time (chaos theory, butterfly effect, etc). So the model uses a sophisticated system to deliberately inject variations (weighted towards the uncertainties which are most likely to cause the maximum forecast errors) into the starting state of the atmosphere/ocean for each member.
If most ensemble members are tightly clustering around a particular scenario (e.g. max temp of 35C for a particular day, 25-50mm of rain, etc), it generally means that the weather setup concerned is insensitive to influences that can throw that forecast off which implies there's a high confidence in that model for that scenario. But if there's a big spread in the ensemble's members, it implies the setup's sensitive to even small changes and uncertainty is high.

In contrast, the deterministic version of a model (the forecasts from models like EC, GFS, ACCESS-G, etc whose forecasts you see on most websites) is just a single scenario.

Most deterministic models have an ensemble version.

The advantage of ensembles is that they give a great idea of how confident or uncertain a model is for particular scenarios. Comparing an ensemble to a deterministic version of a model is a bit like asking a big bunch of doctors for a diagnosis on a hard-to-diagnose disease compared to asking just a single doctor.
One disadvantage of ensembles is that they have lower resolution than their deterministic versions (due to the computational resources they take up) so they can sometimes miss smaller scale details, underestimate the intensity of a smaller than normal intense TC, etc.

There's also multimodel ensembles and grand ensembles... the former are ensembles consisting of multiple deterministic models (WATL and OCF are examples) and the latter are ensembles of ensembles.

So in a nutshell, think of ensembles by their common definition such as that used for furniture i.e. a group of things that are treated as a whole thing. Ensemble = multiple scenarios from a model or models. Deterministic = single scenario from a model.

One thing to note is that a lot of forecast products from ensembles show the average of all the scenarios (e.g. WATL, OCF rainfall amounts, etc). While this is useful, it doesn't show anything about how the scenarios are distributed, if they're skewed, what outliers there are, etc. Therefore I prefer to look at probability forecasts from ensembles (percentage of an ensemble's members going for a particular scenario) and preferably multimodel ensembles because a single model ensemble often tends to be more representative of its deterministic version rather than giving an appreciation of the true range of possible scenarios.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 20:55

Thanks for that Ken, exactly what I was looking for.
Posted by: james1977

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 20:55

Originally Posted By: Blowin'
Wow, interesting few days to see if EC is leading the way or just keeping the forum busy.
Waiting for a Higgins led bread and milk frenzy


Itís already started, charging ppl $38 subscriptions to his person track map. Puts up a picture to get interest then says you wanna know more subscribe 😂
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 21:09

Great explanation Ken, thx
Posted by: Delta-T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 21:22

That's why we love our Kenny.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 21:32

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Most deterministic models have an ensemble version.


I like the explanation of ensembles you gave Ken.
I would like to see a version of ACCESS R or ACCESS C in ensemble form and publicly available. Ensembles also give a better idea of the potential spatial displacement error of heavy rain. It appears to me that the models are getting quite good at big rain events for a region, but the location of heaviest rain can be hard to predict. It is all too easy to get excited about heavy rain bullseye from a deterministic model, but the ensemble helps to better understand potential scenarios.
Posted by: Un_stable

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 21:40

That explanation was a big help, thankyou Ken smile
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 17/02/2019 21:47





No worries smile

Just to add to my previous post, above are a couple of examples of how ensembles give an idea of how much or little uncertainty there is for various things such as TC tracks.
The 1st image is of TC Iris and shows a huge spread of potential tracks from various ensembles which implies high uncertainty due to competing steering influences.
The 2nd image is of TC Marcus which shows all tracks tightly clustered together which implies low uncertainty.

In both cases, black = the actual track that eventuated. The forecast tracks go out to 10 days from the observed position (where the TC's name tag is).
Posted by: james1977

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/02/2019 04:40

Watl has kicked up the rainfall totals a bit with a wide area of 50-100mms . Best outlook Iíve seen for this area for sometime
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/02/2019 07:48

I think WATL (PME) which is an based on eight models (2 Australian, and 6 international) is this morning biased to the high side due to the ECMWF forecast. Unfortunately all other models are not showing much rain for SEQ for the next seven days. If ECMWF proves correct that may be good for some much needed rain, but also not good for it impacts on large waves and beach damage.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/02/2019 09:17

WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE..18 FEB 2019 TIME..0815

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.5C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........61%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 18C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... S 4kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1012.3Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........3/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900 SUNDAY....0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......31.4C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....18.6C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...17.1C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....16C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1012.8Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 44kph at 1125
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... No significant weather..
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/02/2019 14:22

Posted this in the Oma thread but pertinent here.

I can already see surge being a problem in SE QLD irrespective if whether Oma makes landfall or not.

This morning's high tide at the Brisbane Port gauge was already close to Minor Flood level with Oma still over 1,000km away.

Tide gauges are already showing up to 15cm over normal tide levels and this will only increase as Oma gets closer to the Australian mainland. I would be surprised if surge doesn't exceed half a metre at a minimum even if Oma stays well offshore, higher if she gets closer.

Add this to the already very high tides forecast for the end of the week and massive seas and you have a recipe for some coastal inundation and severe beach erosion.

Depending on tomorrow mornings tides I would hope that coastal councils start making sandbags available soon.
Posted by: Stormwalker

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/02/2019 14:38

Would the tide this morning be a result of the supermoon (not the cyclone).

Or is the point you are making is that the tides are higher than the usual king tide.

I only ask, because I vaguely recall a few years ago a king tide caused minor flooding in places (I thought around breakfast creek) without any other weather event influencing it.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/02/2019 15:30

Oma has a pretty large circulation at the moment which increases storm surge potential, but it does shrink down as it comes towards the coast. Still a fair size I think. On the other hand winds are rather parrallel to the coast which I'd think would mean much less storm surge threat unless it does get all the way to the coast.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/02/2019 15:43






Above are the forecast sea level anomalies and surface currents for today compared to the upcoming Sunday generated by the OceanMaps system (the surface winds are forced by ACCESS-G).

You can clearly see the storm surge type effects along the coast in the 2nd map although the degree to which this occurs depends on ACCESS-G's current scenario being close to reality (which currently has a long fetch of vigorous southeasterlies pushing up against the coast after it starts pushing Oma/ex-Oma back up north).

You can also see that sea level is a bit higher than normal already at the moment which is adding to the high tides.

That anticyclonic eddy off the coast with the associated significant high sea level anomaly (which is typical of anticyclonic eddies) also shows up well.

BTW thanks for posting the Bureau's special climate statement the other day Flowin. Pertinent to note the "The highest weekly accumulations were comparable in terms of geographic spread, duration, and intensity of rainfall to those of January 1998 and January 1953" bit in it as well.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/02/2019 15:44

Originally Posted By: Stormwalker
tide this morning be a result of the supermoon (not the cyclone).

That would be factored into the base level astronomical tide predictions which are predicted and published well in advance.

King tide is a lay term that is not readily aligned to scientific principles of analysis of tides.

My understanding of storm surge tides (amount of tide rise above the predicted astronomical tide) is that there are a number of components to it including a rise component due to low pressure, a rise component due to wind shear (wind pushing water against the coast) and a rise component due to wave setup (the incoming large waves can't drop enough before the next wave) for which reefs and shape of seabed play an important role.
So even if the low pressure centre stays away, the potential for surge due to wind shear and wave setup alone may be significant.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/02/2019 16:21

Is it fair to say that we are simply confusing ourselves with all these different models and what the potential outcome will be ?

If you go back 5-10 years ago on this forum, there was more straight forward and less confusing talk, maybe that's because there were less models provided?

Though I do look at windy, it's only 1 model. A lot of people look at that and swear by it.

On the radio this morning, Ken Brown from Brownies coast watch stated " I regularly keep in contact with the senior forecaster from the BOM, they only forecast on 5 MAIN MODELS " 3 european models and 2 Australian Access Models


I would to hear Ken Kato's thoughts on these 5 models and if we need to look at other Models even if they are freely available..

Cheers..
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/02/2019 16:48

Originally Posted By: gleno71
Is it fair to say that we are simply confusing ourselves with all these different models and what the potential outcome will be ?

If you go back 5-10 years ago on this forum, there was more straight forward and less confusing talk, maybe that's because there were less models provided?

Though I do look at windy, it's only 1 model. A lot of people look at that and swear by it.

On the radio this morning, Ken Brown from Brownies coast watch stated " I regularly keep in contact with the senior forecaster from the BOM, they only forecast on 5 MAIN MODELS " 3 european models and 2 Australian Access Models


I would to hear Ken Kato's thoughts on these 5 models and if we need to look at other Models even if they are freely available..

Cheers..


The number of models and their ensemble scenarios can be bewildering to the untrained eye these days but the fact of the matter is, the more models/scenarios, the more accurate forecasts become. An average of model scenarios (sometimes weighted towards the more reliable ones) is more skilful (on average, not always) than any single model on its own. This is consistently backed up by numerous scientific studies and objective skill stats.
Imagine only looking at say EC for TC Oma and being totally unaware that there's also a big proportion of other models that take Oma away to NZ or push it back up north, or only looking at GFS and concluding that the Sunshine Coast will get 700mm in 24hrs from a rain event when many other models have far less.
It also gives a much better idea of what's less or more likely and the confidence or lack thereof in a particular scenario.
This post I made earlier shows how important it is to not restrict yourself to only one or two models: http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...eat#Post1490764

As for Bureau forecasts, the number and type of models used depends on the forecast and situation. For example, for temps in official day to day forecasts, the base data comes from a gridded version of OCF by default (uses the average of several models such as EC, GFS, UK, JMA, etc which is automatically corrected for any consistent under or overestimating biases in the last 14 days by comparing to observations) that can then be manually adjusted by the forecaster.
Depending on the forecast parameter, the forecaster can choose to include/exclude certain model/s or lean towards a particular model.

Apart from a couple of European (EC and UK) and the Australian (ACCESS-R, C, and G) models, the US (GFS) and Japanese (JMA) models can also be used depending on the situation.

If you look at what forecasts were like decades ago when modern models were starting to be used in mainstream operational forecasting, the forecast accuracy between then and now is like night and day. The saying that a 5-day forecast today is as accurate as what a 3-day forecast used to be X years ago is often used.
Naturally you MUST use human knowledge and experience together with the models put out to get the best possible accuracy under the circumstances.
Posted by: gleno71

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 18/02/2019 17:04

Thanks Ken appreciate your response
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 19/02/2019 20:30

Must be something in the water. Latest extended GFS at day 14 has Oma still kicking around as a barely recogniseable circulation off FNQ. And a new cyclone just barely off the coast of SEQ after following a path very similar to Oma.
Posted by: Blowin'

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 19/02/2019 20:46

Did someone say 1893?
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 19/02/2019 20:47

While we're all distracted by Oma, it seems like Brisbane has just celebrated 41 days of 30+ maximums and 52 of 20+ minimums. That's an impressive run. Also shows why Oma will need to dump a lot of rain before we start getting a flood situation.
Posted by: Timbuck

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 19/02/2019 21:32


Hi

I just had an epic day on the ocean off tweedeads and bonus we came home with a very good feed.
Spanish mackerel , Mahi mahi , yellow fin tuna..
the key component is the very good run of SE winds bringing in the warm water.
That brings the fish and some big swell turn gets feeding mode. Todayís warnings of BIG swell and crazy beach conditions worked perfect.... the ocean was ours and a couple of other smart people. Boat ramp was empty. Had a nice little swell on the bar but wasnít breaking across and mirror ocean all day.
Beautiful.

Anyway his talk bout TC oma , just thought point of interest we traveled almost 100nm today and everywhere we went water temp was 28.3 to 28.9 deg and highest was 31.5 out about 8kmís.

Cheers

Tim
Posted by: Rod H

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 20/02/2019 07:10

Spokesman for BOM just on ABC Radio news stating TC Oma has changed course and is now heading for the Brisbane's north Coast . Looking promising for substantial rain on SE Coast. Lets hope so.!
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/02/2019 03:22

Rare snowfall in Vegas today. Can't wait to get over to the US and possibly Asia sometime in the future to experience all the different variations of climate that we don't get here in Australia. Just monotony here for the most part.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/02/2019 07:48







Originally Posted By: Mega
Rare snowfall in Vegas today. Can't wait to get over to the US and possibly Asia sometime in the future to experience all the different variations of climate that we don't get here in Australia. Just monotony here for the most part.

I'd highly recommend it. For example, the western and northern coasts of Japan were getting thundersnow day after day the other week in the sea effect snow regime on the backside of a winter storm.

The US also has just about every imaginable type of weather as well... everything from ice storms/freezing rain to diamond dust to the well-known tornadic supercell outbreaks (often near warm fronts as well due to the boost to helicities near their boundaries) to huge temperature swings to ice jams to dust storms to everything in between.
Of course it's not always like that and there are sometimes extended quiet periods but there's often something happening even during quieter times.

I have fond memories of an ice storm I experienced in Wichita in Kansas a couple of years ago - only 1/4 inch of ice where I was but up to an inch just to my west which caused a lot of downed trees and powerlines... and while the freezing rain was falling, there was even lightning to my south and severe thunderstorms a bit further south of that. I often tune into NOAA weather radio channels while I'm there too. Latest radar narrative, synoptic situation, forecasts, warnings, etc are also continuously broadcast by an automated voice on NOAA weather radio across the nation as well which you can tune into (can also buy specialised inexpensive weather radios which you can mute until PDS alert tones automatically unmute them during particularly dangerous storms). It's a weather watcher's paradise.

So good. Some of my freezing rain memories above.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/02/2019 08:42

WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE..23 FEB 2019 TIME..0730

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......23.1C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........60%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 15C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED....SW 10kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1012.7Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........6/8 cloud, increasing.
RAIN SINCE 0900 FRIDAY....0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......31.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....20.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...17.3C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....14C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1010.3Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 50kph at 1015
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Winds eased overnight.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/02/2019 08:55

Normally there are 3 monsoon surges per season roughly 4 to 6 weeks apart. OZ has had the first 2. Might be a while ( if at all ) for number 3 as outflow from Asia still weak and some flow returning into the continent. Now there is a very early season intense typhoon working its way towards the Philippines which should rob the current flow toward our region for the next week or so.
Posted by: Timbuck

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/02/2019 12:20

Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Normally there are 3 monsoon surges per season roughly 4 to 6 weeks apart. OZ has had the first 2. Might be a while ( if at all ) for number 3 as outflow from Asia still weak and some flow returning into the continent. Now there is a very early season intense typhoon working its way towards the Philippines which should rob the current flow toward our region for the next week or so.


I agree. Over the years the has been plenty of TCís right up until April/May we can just cross fingers and hope something pushes down.

Nice down at Burleigh this morning , waves are better today and almost a few good tubs forming. 4 or 5 out getting towed in.

Cheers

Tim
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/02/2019 12:37

Record snow in the western US with almost a metre of snow in the Arizona mountains within a 24 hour period. Flooding rains in the Tennessee valley along with the chance of severe weather with possible tornadoes in the plains and southeast US in a few days. The question is when do we apply for our American visas? Will they accept storm chasing as a legitimate reason or qualification for immigration? Desperate times = desperate measures.... LOL.
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/02/2019 14:16

what's with the northern hemisphere keeping all the water these last few years. is this a thing, or a figment of my imagination.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/02/2019 17:35

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato






Originally Posted By: Mega
Rare snowfall in Vegas today. Can't wait to get over to the US and possibly Asia sometime in the future to experience all the different variations of climate that we don't get here in Australia. Just monotony here for the most part.

I'd highly recommend it. For example, the western and northern coasts of Japan were getting thundersnow day after day the other week in the sea effect snow regime on the backside of a winter storm.

The US also has just about every imaginable type of weather as well... everything from ice storms/freezing rain to diamond dust to the well-known tornadic supercell outbreaks (often near warm fronts as well due to the boost to helicities near their boundaries) to huge temperature swings to ice jams to dust storms to everything in between.
Of course it's not always like that and there are sometimes extended quiet periods but there's often something happening even during quieter times.

I have fond memories of an ice storm I experienced in Wichita in Kansas a couple of years ago - only 1/4 inch of ice where I was but up to an inch just to my west which caused a lot of downed trees and powerlines... and while the freezing rain was falling, there was even lightning to my south and severe thunderstorms a bit further south of that. I often tune into NOAA weather radio channels while I'm there too. Latest radar narrative, synoptic situation, forecasts, warnings, etc are also continuously broadcast by an automated voice on NOAA weather radio across the nation as well which you can tune into (can also buy specialised inexpensive weather radios which you can mute until PDS alert tones automatically unmute them during particularly dangerous storms). It's a weather watcher's paradise.

So good. Some of my freezing rain memories above.


Great post, thanks for the info Ken. Those places are definitely on my bucket list of places to go, that's for sure. I really don't like the cold but I think I'd be easily persuaded if there was some actual weather associated with it unlike here where all you get most of the time is dry SW winds and maybe some drizzle if you're lucky. The fronts that scrape the south of this country completely pale in comparison to those across countries in the NH too.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/02/2019 17:44

Hi 'guys'. Don't know about you but l am thoroughly over OMA but relieved we have had no damage. Had to tie the gate down but that's about it. Some plants look a bit tattered as well.
Some had questioned the future synoptic pattern
Here is my current take. Looks quite exciting. For me anyway.
cheers
----------------------------------
Some synoptic changes appearing. We seem to be entering a 'weather pattern shift'
Firstly big dip in AAO brings wavy westerly belt and wavy jetstreams

A couple of massive surface highs (1031hpa)appearing on ACEESS g surface synoptic in 6 days time. Symetrically expanded like ballons if you will. With a long N/s aligned trough in between

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml

Massive kinks in the sub polar jet stream ( although it is still quite south currently.
A decent kink even in the sub tropical jet later this week.

Quite a dynamic picture.
Wavy Jetstreams often associated with extreme weather..

Implications include../ Cut off lows/ swinging from hot then very cold weather, snow on alps, Strong frontal systems on the exit of upper troughs .

Noticing we have a precipitation signal under a massive high next Friday.?
Uppers showing the exit branch of the 200hpa sub tropical jet.

A big negative AAO dip is exciting for dynamic weather set ups
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/02/2019 18:03

Ho hum . . . next!
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/02/2019 18:09

I am not saying these things happen overnight or next week but a shift in pattern can be a period of time.Progressing as the weeks pass. The pattern may last a Season perhaps.?
Any way this will my area of study this autumn.
Hope not to borya's all poke
BTW.. seen this pattern before
and
I am referring to the Australian continent of which we are a small part
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 23/02/2019 18:24

Originally Posted By: crikey

Any way this will my area of study this autumn.
Hope not to borya's all poke
BTW.. seen this pattern before
and
I am referring to the Australian continent of which we are a small part


not boring at all, finding your posts quite interesting.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 08:41

WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE..24 FEB 2019 TIME..0735

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......24.0C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........59%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........16C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED....S 8kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1018.8Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........1/8 cloud, decreasing.
RAIN SINCE 0900 SATURDAY..0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......31.5C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....19.8C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...17.5C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....16C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1015.6Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..SE 44kph at 1537
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... No significant weather.
Posted by: Rod H

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 08:43

Things arenít looking very good at all for any decent rain in SE Qld. for the month of March. I have a gut feeling that the weather patterns are 3 months late this year.
If my 77 year old feelings are correct we should start to get rain in April.
Be very sad if we donít thatís for sure.
I hope I am right.
Posted by: james1977

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 11:56

Originally Posted By: Rod H
Things arenít looking very good at all for any decent rain in SE Qld. for the month of March. I have a gut feeling that the weather patterns are 3 months late this year.
If my 77 year old feelings are correct we should start to get rain in April.
Be very sad if we donít thatís for sure.
I hope I am right.


Only problem with getting later rains like in April is the grass donít get the chance to grow like summer and then the frosts hit n burn it off. Farmers will love it tho, might actually get a bit of a winter crop in the ground
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 12:29

If we don't get rain in April it is going to be a horrific fire season.

We should get 180mm in Feb and just 73mm in April. So even if we got an average April we'd need it to be well above average.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 15:54

The heat will be back after next week:



Brisbane is still holding onto its streak of 30+ days despite the strong SE'lies. Today's 30.5 max marks the 46'th day. 52/55 days this year has been 30 or above with the 3 other days 29.4 or higher. Every day this week is forecast to be 29 or 30 so there's a chance we might break the streak before the heat returns the following week.

Except for the possibility of onshore showers it also looks very dry ahead. 27.6 mm in January for Brisbane with 37 mm so far this month. 139 and 144 are the respective monthly averages.

Posted by: Vinnie

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 16:29

Doesn't a dry summer mean a warmer than normal winter?
Posted by: Nic_Bri

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 16:34

Knowing my luck it'll probably be torrential and/or cyclonic conditions in April...I am headed up to Fraser for a week.
Posted by: Multiversity

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 16:46

Good post NF regarding SEs and >30Cs for Brisbane. I wonder what might be contributing factors?
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 16:51

8mm so far this year. We had La NiŮa and El NiŮo and over the past 5 years or so, it seems to not matter whatsoever. Just hot and dry is all we seem to experience out here. I am so excited about the wind and cooler temps over the past few days. That is how sad things are.
Posted by: LonnyDave

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 17:08

Pretty remarkable considering the Jan/Feb average temp is 29 degrees
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 17:52

The last 3 winters have been significantly warmer than average and it looks like a 4th is coming. Yet all of these winters have been in completely different climatic conditions (ENSO, SAM, IOD, SSTs etc).
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 17:54


With four days left of Feb do not think this will change much. One of the many great bits of info from the BoM climate section.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 17:55

That map is simply extraordinary.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 18:50

BOM seasonal forecast was issued on the 14th Feb
Outlook not good for those looking for large wet or cold seasonal anomalies
and BTW
they have issued an El Nino watch

Here is the link for Autumn 2019
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/temperature/summary
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 18:57

Originally Posted By: Multiversity
Good post NF regarding SEs and >30Cs for Brisbane. I wonder what might be contributing factors?

When we have had southeasterlies here, theyíve had a reasonable fetch over the Tasman Sea which is significantly warmer than normal at the moment... up to 4C or more above average.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 19:00

I don't believe we have had a La Nina in the past 3 yrs NF.

Do you have some links for 2015-2018..showing 3 yrs of above average for autumn and winter. I thought last winter was very cool here but it could be an aberration of course.
EDIT
Ok.. I found it
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statement_archives.shtml?region=qld&period=season
EDIT
My memory from last autumn cooler. .. The nights only were colder
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/qld/archive/201808.summary.shtml
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 19:16

EC has quite a large coastal trough coming ashore late next weekend/early next week enhancing rainfall through SEQ. None of the other models are so far interested.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 19:26

Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete

With four days left of Feb do not think this will change much. One of the many great bits of info from the BoM climate section.
Those year-to-date percentage/anomaly maps on BOM compare the rainfall for the year-to-date to the entire yearly average. So therefore, for much of the year those maps will look dreadful.
Here's the January monthly rainfall percentage map:


And here is February's for the month-to-date:
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 19:29

Originally Posted By: crikey
I don't believe we have had a La Nina in the past 3 yrs NF.

Do you have some links for 2015-2018..showing 3 yrs of above average for autumn and winter. I thought last winter was very cool here but it could be an aberration of course.
EDIT
Ok.. I found it
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statement_archives.shtml?region=qld&period=season
EDIT
My memory from last autumn cooler. .. The nights only were colder
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/qld/archive/201808.summary.shtml


2013 onward have all been above average for SEQ (and large parts of Australia), but 2017 and 2018 were significantly warm in winter for max temps.



Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 19:31

Ok. My l have missed a lot while l have been AWOL. We had la nina . Wikopedia says we had La Ninas 2016Ė17, and 2017/18

2 in a row?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a

The reports for those years
2016 winter was very wet in the west of QLD
2017 winter was dry for much of the state.

ENSO not guaranteeing rain or no rain..
No idea if they were weak La Nina or not.
I wouldn't mind trolling through those seasonal reports to find a wet qld in a developing El Nino.
Maybe tomorrow
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/qld/archive/201608.summary.shtml
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 19:38

Re: high Tasman sea temps
I suppose that stagnant high that has sat there for NOV, DEC, JAN and 2 weeks of FEB.= LOW cloud cover, no cooling fronts or troughs, endless solar radiation.
Amazing really. This 1031hpa high we have currently fetches to the Sub polar and we can still manage those higher temps.
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 19:47

and there's this with the heat in the tasman:

Quote:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Australian_Current

Over the past 50Ė60 years the EAC has shifted. The south Tasman Sea has become warmer and saltier from 1944-2002. This has resulted in the current strengthening and extending southward. This shift in the EAC flow past Tasmania is controlled the Southern Hemisphere subtropical ocean circulation. This trend is thought to be caused by changes in wind patterns due to ozone depletion over Australia. There is a strong consensus with climate models that this trend will continue to intensify and accelerate over the next 100 years. The current is predicted to increase greater than 20%, thanks to the increase in South Pacific winds
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 19:50

Last winter were cooler nights but that was about it. Dam warm. I hated it. Anybody who dares says we will get a hot winter I will not talk to and wont be your friend any more. Ken will probably do the same to you as well. poke grin

I was just thinking of the early 70,s going to primary school at Rainworth and around June I would be wearing very trendy thick corduroy pants and a parka. At High school it was long pants all year round and 2 jumpers in winter. No air conditioning or heaters. August was the westerlies as the Ekka started. It was pretty dam cold. The last 3 winters have been fake winters . From about the mid 90ís they have got warmer with the occassional cold one here and there.

Chatting with a mate and talking about ANZAC day. His father used to get up and be wearing a trench coat to the dawn service when he was alive, it used to be cold. Now it is still warm up till May.

I am not holding out for a cold winter. Thiught I would tap that out and try reverse psychology.
Posted by: Colin Maitland

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 19:53

On another note, Brisbane reached 30įC so that is now 45 days in a row of 30į+.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 24/02/2019 20:07

Thanks for the explanation Seabreeze. Separating the months does show a difference.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 05:50

Originally Posted By: Mega
EC has quite a large coastal trough coming ashore late next weekend/early next week enhancing rainfall through SEQ. None of the other models are so far interested.


ICON, CMC and ACCESS-G now showing the same trough although moreso through northern parts of SEQ. Now wait for the inevitable downgrades to commence.
Posted by: james1977

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 06:28

Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Mega
EC has quite a large coastal trough coming ashore late next weekend/early next week enhancing rainfall through SEQ. None of the other models are so far interested.


ICON, CMC and ACCESS-G now showing the same trough although moreso through northern parts of SEQ. Now wait for the inevitable downgrades to commence.


I donít have hope no more mega, I gave that up a few months ago. Iíll believe i see it and itís raining.
Edit*** yeah itís all north of Brisbane by the looks, you neck of the woods might do ok
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 07:40

Really don't know where to put this so here will do I think. As the southern hemisphere is supposedly at the peak of cyclone season a super typhoon is sw of Guam. Just absolutely unbelievable.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 07:55




Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Really don't know where to put this so here will do I think. As the southern hemisphere is supposedly at the peak of cyclone season a super typhoon is sw of Guam. Just absolutely unbelievable.

That part of the NW Pacific is notorious for having typhoons during any month of the year including the northern hemisphere winter but a supertyphoon in Feb is still impressive nevertheless (and I can see the irony in your post lol).

Above are the latest multimodel accumulating rainfall scenarios from some of the models for Brisbane. CMC (red) is doing its usual trick of being an high outlier in this region although you can never always rule it out for sure.


Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 08:18

Ironic is about right Ken. Just to point out that myself and most others just want one to cross the coast without hitting a populated area and bringing a big rain event. There is no desire to see destruction.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 08:19

So if todays temp forecast for Brisbane holds true it will break the consecutive run of 30 deg or more days... seem to recall we are now well over 40 days. But only one degree warmer than forecast will keep the run of 30 deg or more days going. I guess we will know by around 2pm or so, if this record run continues.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 08:34

Wutip is strongest February typhoon on record. Since 1940 there have been 7 cat 4 or 5 typhoons in either January or February.

I suspect Wutip had an influence on Oma, stealing some of the tropical moisture in the west Pacific away.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 08:46

Originally Posted By: james1977
Originally Posted By: Rod H
Things arenít looking very good at all for any decent rain in SE Qld. for the month of March. I have a gut feeling that the weather patterns are 3 months late this year.
If my 77 year old feelings are correct we should start to get rain in April.
Be very sad if we donít thatís for sure.
I hope I am right.


Only problem with getting later rains like in April is the grass donít get the chance to grow like summer and then the frosts hit n burn it off. Farmers will love it tho, might actually get a bit of a winter crop in the ground

Something like the April to September 1983 rainfall would be good to restore the balance.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/arch...&month=9&day=30
I recall June 1983 was a reasonably significant flood in Brisbane River and Bremer River.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 08:56

WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE..25 FEB 2019 TIME..0745

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......21.6C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........79%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........17C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED....SSW 11kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1022.4Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........25KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........6/8 cloud, distant showers.
RAIN SINCE 0900 SUNDAY....1.4mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......29.4C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....18.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...17.6C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....16C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1015.8Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..SE 45kph at 1217
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Slight showers developed.
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 16:12

Those of you distressed at SE QLD missing out on any rain from Oma can rest easy knowing 00Z Extended GFS is throwing up yet another doomsday scenario at the end of its run.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 16:27

Gone next run.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 16:38

Looks nice. Cat 3 striking Fraser Island/Wide Bay so nothing important blown away (joke) . Quickly moving so good rain but nothing to extreme.

How many GFS day 14 cyclones have we had in SEQ this year? A good half a dozen or so I think.
Posted by: Locke

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 16:50

Looks to be still Cat 3 out near Dalby lol.
Posted by: Stephen

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 16:50

If it is shown on one more run of GFS I reckon we are 100% on.......for dry conditions poke
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 16:58





Meanwhile, above is the GFS's ensemble showing the percentages of its scenarios currently going for more than the equivalent of more than 10mm/day for Archerfield.
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 17:18

eps shows a bit of wet in our area from the cs around the 4th/5th of march.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 18:02

EC now trying to spin up another low in the CS at the end of the run which is interesting. When it's GFs, I don't take much notice but if it's EC, then it's worth keeping an eye out tbh.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 18:16

For the record the long run of 30 deg or more days for Brisbane did come to an end today. Max 28.8 at the Brisbane AWS.

Not real interested in what the models are showing near the end of their runs. When it is within 5 days or so it may be worth getting my interest. smile
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 18:30

I just wonder if there is ever gunna be an end to these ridges from hell.
Posted by: KevD

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 18:39

Originally Posted By: Mega
EC now trying to spin up another low in the CS at the end of the run which is interesting. When it's GFs, I don't take much notice but if it's EC, then it's worth keeping an eye out tbh.

Not for me - still exhausted after the last effort. All over the place, even within a few days....10 days out now is just la la land. The Coral Sea is one of the hardest to forecast for...so I'm going to wait until we have model agreement no more than five days out!
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 18:50

Given our recent experience with Oma, I'd rather be surprised with a good looking Cat3 than dissapointed by a wet fart.
Sorry but thats my opinion.
GFS however crazy it is, is just reminding everyone that Summer is a long way from gone, even if we are entering 'autumn' and anything could still happen late!
Hope it will.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 19:07

All I did was point out that EC is trying to spin up a new low up there as well as GFS. It's not like I speculated where it was going to go or if it'd cause mega-destruction to the east coast of QLD. Sheesh.

Early indications are that there could also be an increase in onshore shower activity late next weekend as a long easterly fetch sets up across the Coral Sea and combines with a weak inland upper trough. We may be a little too far south for the heaviest falls but it still looks OK particularly for northern coastal SEQ. Looks as though the remnants of Oma gets dragged onto the NQ coast at the same time as well.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 19:13

Thanks for the heads up Mega, the season isnt over, but it better get a move on.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 19:50

Originally Posted By: Mega
All I did was point out that EC is trying to spin up a new low up there as well as GFS. It's not like I speculated where it was going to go or if it'd cause mega-destruction to the east coast of QLD. Sheesh.


Mega, all good mate, no negativity intended. I enjoy reading your posts.

I have reflected quite a bit on the TC Oma forecasts and non-event outcome for SEQ both from the meteorological perspective of the challenges of forecasting, interpreting models etc, ensembles, consensus ... AND also social perspective for the way that people react, both in this forum and also in the broader community and media.
Ken put up some very good posts about model ensembles and that different events having differing degrees of predictability, but it seems to me there is an increasing polarisation of those heavily interested in the mdoels and those against the models. Finding a fair middle ground is not easy but does need to be promoted.
Ken has posted on many occasions in various threads the plots of model skill showing decrease in skill at longer lead times. They are really informative. But what they do not show is that in some situations an event may be quite predictable and other events quite unpredictable even at short lead times.
I am forming a generalised view along the lines:
What is forecast more than 5 days out is often quite speculative but worth looking at.
What is forecast around 3 to 5 days is often but not always worth seriously looking at.
What is forecast in 0 to 3 days is worth seriously preparing for but there is always a chance it may be wrong.
There will always be exceptions though. Oma it seemed was in the category of quite unpredictable even at short lead time, but we should not let that distort our interest in the models for the future.
Another factor at play is the psychological influence of the current and recent weather and climate. With such a long period of boring weather combined with a developing potential serious to very serious rainfall deficiency it seems to me that people are really keen to see any sign of rain.
One key technological advance I would like to see with forecasting is for BoM to put out forecasts with a confidence rating of a sort. I do not know if that is possible but if it were it would be very meaningful. They sort of do it already in their media and tech bulletins albeit not in a consistent way but it get lost in the headline numbers or potential threat.
Anyway that is just my twenty bobs worth.
PS my interest in this topic is the precise reason for my signature smile
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 20:11





Yeah Flowin, the thing I always like to try and emphasise is that it doesn't have to be one or the other. Too many people think it is (a combination of models and humans must be used to get the best results... not just one or the other), and also assume that all TC's are equally as unpredictable as each other and at all forecast lead times. It's simply not the case. There's all sorts of in-between shades of grey.
It's also CRITICAL to use as many models as possible, not just rely on one.
Also important to remember that some setups are more predictable at longer lead times than others e.g. Yasi vs Oma.

I like to use the comparison above for a couple of past TC's to help illustrate this. Both were forecasts out to 10 days from various ensembles where the coloured lines = forecasts and the black line = actual track.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 20:16

Well put flowin.I like the time frames you outlined for the degree of accuracy. Hard not to look at the long term models as you say because we are all desperate for decent rain and me . . Just the next thunderstorm event.
Posted by: cold@28

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 20:20

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Yeah Flowin, the thing I always like to try and emphasise is that it doesn't have to be one or the other. Too many people think it is...

This attitude seems to be across the board for far too many things these days, not just on this forum, but in general thinking which seems to be pervasive now across the western world. No-one discusses anything any more with an open mind, they just try to convert the other person/people. No-one wants to know why the person with a different opinion has that opinion.
I don't see why anything has to be one thing or the other, and nothing in between.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 20:34

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Yeah Flowin, the thing I always like to try and emphasise is that it doesn't have to be one or the other. Too many people think it is (a combination of models and humans must be used to get the best results... not just one or the other), and also assume that all TC's are equally as unpredictable as each other and at all forecast lead times. It's simply not the case. There's all sorts of in-between shades of grey.
It's also CRITICAL to use as many models as possible, not just rely on one.
Also important to remember that some setups are more predictable at longer lead times than others e.g. Yasi vs Oma.

I like to use the comparison above for a couple of past TC's to help illustrate this. Both were forecasts out to 10 days from various ensembles where the coloured lines = forecasts and the black line = actual track.

Ken, thanks the examples you use of cyclone track forecast ensembles to me are a good way to understand model unceratinty.
My comment goes beyond cyclones to many types of weather events, we just need a way to visualise (model ensembles) for other types of weather events and recognise that often the forecast rainfall is potentially more uncertain that the driving weather as well. In my mind the BoM forecasting rain producing weather for a region is quite good, somewhere in that region often sees rain. Where the heaviest rain will occur can often be spatially out of place around 20 to 50km, sometimes more, sometimes less. People don't see rain in their backyard, and the reaction is far too often, the forecast failed or was wrong. A way to visualise forecast uncertainty beyond cyclones is becoming increasingly necessary.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 20:45

Getting quite a few showers, but they are all like 10 seconds long and only adding up to 1 or 2mm in a day. Seem to have had a bit of this sort of thing in the last month or so with maybe 5 or more days like that, and its not really a pattern I can recall seeing much of in my time of weather watching.

edit: maybe its partly due to the rather warm Tasman Sea and generally stable conditions. A thin layer of moisture on the SE's with a mid level cap, which in normal conditions might not be deep enough for any shower activity, but with the warm Tasman Sea carries enough moisture to support very low topped showers that therefore cannot grow very high.
Posted by: justme

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 20:53

Probable should continue in the Oma thread but I ,m not sure if the models were that far wrong at all with Oma. Wasnít the system still in Fiji area a week away when they had it coming to Fraser coast QLD. If she had travelled a bit faster and beaten that high would she not have been pushed closer to the coast instead of being pushed away. Am I wrong in saying 24 hours could have made a huge difference I would consider that a close call?
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 20:59

Originally Posted By: justme
Probable should continue in the Oma thread but I ,m not sure if the models were that far wrong at all with Oma. Wasnít the system still in Fiji area a week away when they had it coming to Fraser coast QLD. If she had travelled a bit faster and beaten that high would she not have been pushed closer to the coast instead of being pushed away. Am I wrong in saying 24 hours could have made a huge difference I would consider that a close call?


No, you're absolutely right. Unfortunately, people always focus on the negatives and the misses when it comes to computer modelling and rarely the times when they actually come close to getting it right. People put too much faith in the one or two models showing an outcome they want to happen and when it doesn't happen they complain that they were wrong. It's best to look at a spread of models and their ensembles and not just run with one or two of them or else you're setting yourself up for massive disappointment most of the time.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 21:03

I think Oma was closer to Ken's unpredictable Iris example than to the predictable Marcus example. However this was obvious from the models, with the models pretty much agreeing that Oma would move SW to be about half way to Brisbane and then had a wide range of possible motion after that with W, NW, or SE paths all favoured by various models at various times.

I'd also add that an important factor is the sharp difference to being within the rain disk of Oma and being outside the rain disk. Models 24 or 4 hours ahead of Saturday were pretty close to what actually happened, but the forecast of up to 50mm or more for Brisbane from that lead time did not seem close to what happened, as the slight change in cyclone position had big impacts on how much rain was experienced on the coast.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 21:31

After the experience of Owen and Oma I am never again getting excited about a TC in SEQ unless it is forecast 24-48 hours out. I've well and truly learned my lesson. There's a reason why you can count the number of cyclone crossings in SEQ in the last century on one or two hands.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 21:52

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
After the experience of Owen and Oma I am never again getting excited about a TC in SEQ unless it is forecast 24-48 hours out. I've well and truly learned my lesson. There's a reason why you can count the number of cyclone crossings in SEQ in the last century on one or two hands.



There are situations that more than 24-48 hours can be confident and helpful to prepare.
Like Oswald 2013, but that was an ex TC. Nonetheless I find TC versus Ex TC only relevant to scale of impact. Ex TCs come through SE more often than TCs. So still worth focusing on systems other than TCs.
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 22:15

I was surprisingly impressed by the strength of that cyclone even though it didn't cross the coast and was only a category 2/1 system.I got to experience Winston in Fiji a few years ago and that was beyond belief but Oma put on some excitement of its own.Strong wind gusts over several days,powerful swells and monstrous seas, and just watching planes at the Gold coast airport struggling to land with the intermittent squally wind gusts,terrifying not just a lot of pilots and passengers but me as well
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 25/02/2019 22:28

Onshore shower activity delivering 1.2mm in the 24hrs to 9am, and 4.6mm since 9am.
Aside from a possible break from tomorrow morning for a 18-24hr period, it currently looks like the onshore showery flow will continue to stick around here until Sunday.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/02/2019 08:45

WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE..26 FEB 2019 TIME..0740

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......21.3C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........76%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........17C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED....SSW 5kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1021.2Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........25KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........7/8 cloud, distant showers.
RAIN SINCE 0900 MONDAY....1.8mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......29.2C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....17.6C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...16.8C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....15C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1021.4Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..SE 43kph at 1141
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Overnight slight showers.
Posted by: planet x

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/02/2019 09:22

I love your balanced approach - and your signature
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/02/2019 12:51

GFS 14 day now has the cyclone passing a little bit further off the coast than Oma. Interesting path - starts way out east in 72 hours time, moved almost directly west to the Solomon Islands and then due south to east of NSW/Qld Border, and then parallel to the coast giving the coast all the way to Tasmania some wind but likely no rain.

EC ends at day 10 with the cyclone further west. If the next 4 days followed the same pattern as GFS it would run right over the top of us. How's that for an absurdly speculative 14 day forecast....
Posted by: Ahab

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/02/2019 12:59

At least something to look at the next days. The general idea of a cyclone moving towards the east coast has been evident now for a few days.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/02/2019 13:03

All other models persist with just a weak low for now. Even next week's trough system has inevitably downgraded.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/02/2019 16:18

And now the cylcone has totally disappeared (GFS).

But there is a period of long fetch easterlies and some upper troughing around, so some rain prospects, especially for coastal areas that don't really need it that badly.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/02/2019 18:16

The multi model consensus approach to forecasting weather, including TC's might be great for meteorologists and amateur weather analysts. You need the time and skill and inclination.
For the general public and even some part time amateur weather analysts like myself , Just not interested in all that is required to analyse ensembles etc .
It is a specialised area in meteorology and your either in to it or not. Many like storm analysis. I personally not interested.
.
I will continue to use the deterministic ACCESS g provided to the public for the public. If l mislead people by using that model only,then speak to BOM because they produce and publish it on their web page for the public to use.
THat is my little say in the use of the deterministic product.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/02/2019 18:18

Nothing wrong with that at all crikey. Rather, the effort to understand them should be made by those who constantly criticise them with baseless assumptions.
Posted by: Ahab

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/02/2019 18:35

27C today, what a delight.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/02/2019 18:49

Thanks Ken for your thumbs up .
-------
I was interested Mike H' that you found the showery activity unusual for your area. In fact here at the Tweed the morning showery stuff has returned to normal. I noticed that you are at Beerburrum, inland sunshine coast. Maybe the easterly push has been stronger.? Have you noted wind direction or speed for this unusual shower stuff.
Whilst l have been looking at the synoptic over the past 4 months l noted that when our morning showers stopped for those 3-4 months with a pos + AAO , the ridge was quite narrow or peaky up the east coast. The current change as the AAO dips negatively is the High has ballooned and the onshore is more easterly than south easterly l think. The other thing is that the High cell itself is actually migrating east as they should.
and the pressure of the high cells are an incredible 1030hpa which would be unusual for summer. I think they usually only get that strong in winter. Correct me if l am wrong.

We had frequent morning showers here at the tweed.

And for some anecdotal forecasting.. LOL
The storm bird has been singing every morning , lunch and sun down for the past 6 days. Have heard frogs. and amazing .
Had an outburst of mushrooms around the traps.
Would l be brazen enough to say they can detect it will be wet enough for at least a reproductive cycle. ?
and
Is it just an aberration or can l sense Autumn pending in the air. Its been a tad cooler at night and mornings. A bit cloudier .
-------
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/02/2019 18:57

Oh GEEZ. I am just reading ACC g surface synoptic . It has this current high in the Bight at 1028hpa ,ballooning to 1033 hpa !!!west of the south island of NZ on Friday 1st March
I believe 1034 hpa is the record in the Bight for High pressure cells and l am fairly sure ...that is not for 1stst day of Autumn
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/02/2019 19:06




Originally Posted By: Flowin
Ken, thanks the examples you use of cyclone track forecast ensembles to me are a good way to understand model unceratinty.
My comment goes beyond cyclones to many types of weather events, we just need a way to visualise (model ensembles) for other types of weather events and recognise that often the forecast rainfall is potentially more uncertain that the driving weather as well. In my mind the BoM forecasting rain producing weather for a region is quite good, somewhere in that region often sees rain. Where the heaviest rain will occur can often be spatially out of place around 20 to 50km, sometimes more, sometimes less. People don't see rain in their backyard, and the reaction is far too often, the forecast failed or was wrong. A way to visualise forecast uncertainty beyond cyclones is becoming increasingly necessary.


Totally agree with all those points, especially the "forecast rainfall is potentially more uncertain that the driving weather as well" bit. Not sure how many people realise that trying to accurately forecast rainfall amounts is often a lot harder than forecasting the occurrence of the system itself and many other parameters such as temps away from seabreeze effects, etc.

One good way to visualise forecast uncertainty which I think is easy for most people to understand is probabilistic maps from ensembles e.g. the chance (or more technically, the percentage of the ensemble's members) of rain exceeding a certain threshold, say 25mm, 50mm, etc - see above example from the WATL page.
The problem comes when we try to visualise how that changes in different areas over time. The human brain isn't good at visualising how different areas of different probabilities change over time. One solution is to use a good animation but if there's lots of changes in the areas of different probabilities with time, it becomes tricky to remember what happens where and when.

As for further improving accuracy of forecasts for things like precip, one of the best ways is to use calibrated (automatically comparing past forecasts to observations to improve future forecasts) forecast products. Calibrated rainfall forecasts are already used in the non-public versions of WATL and also the base of the official forecasts (before manual adjustments) but not sure if they've been implemented in the public facing WATL webpage.
Unfortunately calibrated forecast products have very limited availability in Australia compared to other countries such as the US which is a shame.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/02/2019 19:26








Thanks for the compliments RWM, planet x, and anyone else re the big surf photos. I consider myself more of an opportunistic happy snapper though.

And yeah Tweedstorm, gleno, you and I may well have been standing next to each other and not known it! Be pretty hard to know who was who though given the sheer number of people who flocked there (we managed to arrive before the crowds got too bad but it was really crowded when we left - see above photo).

Above are a couple of other phonecamera photos I took at Snapper.

It's one of my fave spots to watch big surf and I've been there a million times but this past weekend would have to be up there with some of the best waves I've seen (not necessarily surfability wise).
Constant roar like a distant 747 taking off occasionally interrupted by dull sonic boom type sounds as some of the plunging breakers closed out and the air was explosively expelled.

P.S. some preliminary signs that instability may increase towards the middle of next week but we'll see.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/02/2019 19:35

ACC g showing a reasonable but localised precipitation signal
for 1st and 2nd day of autumn 2019
Investigation shows
-strong onshore easterly from a massive 1033hpa high.20 knots

Upper trough (sub branch of the jet stream)
and mid layer closed low nearly vertically stacked

the incoming weak surface troughing sits a couple of days behind and just forming over WA.

Massive high pressure cell centred west of Nth isle of NZ
Pretty much takes up all the Tasman and the southern coral sea
mslp 1033hpa at its peak here.

Fascinating set up. Look forward to a brief event or non event.
EDIT..
Yes that is EX OMA up there in the coral. THe strong Tasman high giving her an input blast to her southern flank
She is hardly connected to the NE inflow on that shot. But close

source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
Posted by: BIG T

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/02/2019 19:49

62mm at Alstonville across the last week. In this region, they must be winning. God bless oragraphic uplift. Cracking pics ken.. oh boy when I was a yougin, it was never big enough, now it makes me nervous just watching when itís that heavy.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 26/02/2019 20:54

Love your work Crikey & Ken, keep it up, very much appreciated.
Heading NT in April, at least I might see some rain there.
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/02/2019 07:12

Originally Posted By: one drop
eps shows a bit of wet in our area from the cs from around the 4th/5th of march.


this is still showing. on eps. not much.
but rain is rain, i'll take any handy rain at this stage.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/02/2019 07:58

Last nights WATL looks a bit promising in 4 days time, see what this mornings shows.
Yea, any rain is good rain, now that we need to buy water.
Posted by: retired weather man

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/02/2019 08:34

WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE..27 FEB 2019 TIME..0730

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......21.6C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........71%
CURRENT DEW POINT..........16C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED....SW 4kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1020.0Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........25KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........6/8 cloud, distant showers.
RAIN SINCE 0900 TUESDAY...1.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......27.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....16.9C ( Coldest for year )
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...16.5C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....17C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1020.1Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 43kph at 1348
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Overnight slight showers.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/02/2019 08:44

Courier-Mail headlines this morning:

A popular Queensland weather forecasting Facebook page has apologised after administrators went on a "C-bomb" tirade and threatened to 'cave the head in' of followers who questioned the accuracy of predictions.

Can't read the article as it is pay-walled.

Not really surprised seeing the way HSC bans anyone who challenges them and have their heads so far up themselves.
Posted by: Stormwalker

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/02/2019 09:29

A popular Queensland weather forecasting Facebook page has been forced to apologise after administrators went on a Ďc-bombí tirade and threatened to Ďcave the head iní of followers who questioned the accuracy of predictions.
Higgins Storm Chasing, which has almost 800,000 followers reportedly made the comments over a 12 month period in response to criticism.
The Courier-Mail has obtained a series of abusive comments posted on social media and in an email. A woman, who wished to remain anonymous, said the abusive comments captured in screen grabs were from the past year.
One screenshot appears to show a response from the Higgins Storm Chasing admin email address, where an operator wrote ďget your f---ing facts straight you lying cótĒ.
Another comment on a Higgins Facebook post reads, ďmerry kiss my arse wankerĒ and refers to a user as a ďskankĒ.
A recent social media screenshot shows Higgins Storm Chasing write ďf*ck you cótĒ and ďsay it to my face so I can cave your head inĒ to a user who accused him of ďfear mongeringĒ.
Higgins Storm Chasing has a premium service for members to access forecasts on their website and a smart phone weather app, which they charge $5.99 for. Picture: Higgins Storm Chasing Higgins Storm Chasing has a premium service for members to access forecasts on their website and also have a smart phone weather app, which they charge $5.99 for.
Higgins Storm Chasing founder Jeff Higgins has spoken out and apologised for the negative comments made, and said he personally apologised to the user called Ashley who a recent abusive comment was directed to.
ďIn response to the screen captures you have provided, we acknowledge these comments have been written by one of our administration team including myself,Ē he wrote.
ďWe acknowledge this and we are deeply regretful for what has been written in the past and recently.Ē
Mr Higgins said as a team they were working to implement better procedures to cope with the ďonslaught of private and public abuseĒ. Mr Higgins said as a team they were working to implement better procedures to cope with the ďonslaught of private and public abuseĒ they often receive from members of the public.
ďI am appreciative of the positive support we do receive, but I and our team need to work hard to not be affected by those who have ill intent towards me, my administrators and our family business,Ē he said.
He said Higgins Storm Chasing were looking forward to providing a better service to our customers and greater public.
Posted by: Jimi

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/02/2019 09:30

That's hilarious. I can see a small screenshot of some of what he said.

Googling Higgins Storm Chasing brings up a series of articles from 2017 and 2018 where the alarmist forecasts have been called out.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/02/2019 12:08

Only a couple of days to go before we can see all the statistics about Feb, Jan Feb, the whole of summer. With all the posts about models, Oma etc finally drifting into the past we will be confronted with the reality of mind-blowing rain deficiencies(except for the obvious areas). Hope this is one of those years where we can get a reasonably wet Autumn.
Posted by: Warwick Eye2Sky

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/02/2019 14:12

Yes Pete, we can always hope. Stranger things have happened. It has to rain sometime. How about the past 2 mornings? Very nice indeed. A change is in the air!
Looks like we might be back over 32 degrees starting about the 5th of March. Might last for a little less than a week before the fresh southeast winds return.
Canít wait for April onwards....
Posted by: TWEEDSTORM

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/02/2019 17:19

Beauty can't wait for some more soueasters.We look forward to February then March now April. So boring this weather I think we should forget about it and pray the next storm season is nothing like the one we've just had. My prediction with that warm bath of a Tasman sea is for bombing East coast Lows from late Autumn onwards.All good again if you live down on the central coast of NSW again
Posted by: Multiversity

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/02/2019 17:53



Questions. Does the inversion at circa 2000m constitute the SE Trade inversion? What controls the height of this and has it been typically at a lower height with the recent SEs? Could we normally expect more extensive shower activity if the inversion was at a greater altitude?
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/02/2019 18:10

Still like the easterly dip that EC is throwing up early next week. Others still not as keen though.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/02/2019 18:19

Could still see shower activity but definitely not much height to the clouds judging by that sounding.. and what an inversion it is. Looks okish for onshore showers but not too heavy.
Posted by: Mega

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/02/2019 19:21

Originally Posted By: Mega
Still like the easterly dip that EC is throwing up early next week. Others still not as keen though.


Okay, with more time to have a look, I retract the bolded statement as ACCESS-G also has this easterly dip, just not as pronounced.

Obviously nothing major but I think we'll take any rain we can get in these dry times.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/02/2019 19:38




I wouldn't be too surprised if some lucky spots along the coastal fringe and hinterlands eventually did reasonably well out of the expected increase in shower activity from about the end of this week, through the weekend, into next week.

There's some additional help from the eastern flank of the very slow-moving upper low over inland eastern Australia during that period with falling heights/cooling midlevels which can sometime produces some surprisingly alright accumulations in the above mentioned areas... but at this stage, looks like rainfall amounts drop off sharply as soon as you go even a bit further inland and it doesn't really look like a major rain event as such.
These types of systems can be notoriously hard to predict though.

Looks like that easterly dip that EC's currently suggesting to drift west across the Coral Sea next week is part of the remnants of ex-TC Oma which elongates/becomes part of a trough.

Above is the latest multimodel accumulating rainfall graph for Brisbane.
Posted by: mammatus meestrus

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/02/2019 20:01

at this stage of the game a showery pattern would be most appreciated.
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/02/2019 20:15

Have been investigating Southern Hemisphere MSLP.Why?.
I am still gobsmacked at the strength of the high forecast this week , centred west of the South isle of NZ.
EC on the 4 day mslp synoptic has the high even stronger than ACC g. ( 1035 hpa). I have never seen this before.

Google gave me a few leads. I found a BOM climate summary for 2015/2016
"Pepler. Seasonal Climate Summary for summer 2015-16
quote Ē
with the mean January sea level pressure 3.8 hPa above average,

the highest January sea level pressure on record, .Ē
"
Now l am not sure where that point was located.
A quick look.. our current highest mslp east OZ today , for Mossvale is 1025 hpa

Now the mean for march is 1015-1017hpa

Now add on 'peplers' obs of a 3.8 hpa anomaly record and we get 1021 hpa at best.

Now this is before this high even reaches its max later in the week.
Coolongatta is 1019 hpa today

Here is a snap of the average MSLP for March.

Will look with interest the seasonal summer 2018/19 report.



http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/climate_averages/mean-sealevel-pressure/index.jsp?period=mar

Also found that A POS AAO DOESN'T GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER IN SUMMER

Pepler noted a wet SE Australia with a pos AAO in summer.in 2015/2016

So back to the drawing board.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/02/2019 20:20

Any rain is good rain.
Make it so, all you rain gods, or have you left us?
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/02/2019 20:29

From our own weatherzone forum. A member posts in 2017 remembers 1035-1040hpa hpa days.

extract " We used to frequently have those lovely 1035 blue sky 20kt dry days. No longer. Even now 3yrs later, we have finally had 6 weeks of blue skies in Adelaide, but the pressure is still wrong."
so this was written in 2017. and they7 say 1035 was common in 2014/

quote
"The 1040 amazing AU days have not happened in 3 yrs"

I am going to guess this observation was wrong?
--------
I was toldfrom somewhere? that 1034hpa was the record.
This needs some investigation.

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1414119/MSLP_anomaly
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/02/2019 20:45

21st March 2014 .One high of MSLP 1035 , SW of WA.. weakened approaching the Bight
Quite a few 1030 -1032 hpa came through from Jan to April.

No 1040hpa during summer of 2014 anyway
I will eat my hat if l find one anywhere on the Australian synoptic mslp archives

Nice archive mslp animation loop here
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/charts/charts.browse.pl

It is why it is important to give links to claims and information.
It would make checking out the claim so much easier
Posted by: one drop

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/02/2019 20:46

Originally Posted By: crikey

--------
I was toldfrom somewhere? that 1034hpa was the record.
This needs some investigation.




i think there was 1035 high near nz during oswald, sorry, might be wrong, or not what you're asking.....
Posted by: EddyG

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/02/2019 20:54

Very Interesting stuff Crikey, Ive seen it the pressure around 1030hpa and it would be flogging down rain, but that would be thanks to the ridge riding up the coast.

I found an article on google from 2017.

https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weath...619-gwtqzo.html

And
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/74443/Very_high_atmospheric_pressure
Posted by: crikey

Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 - 27/02/2019 20:58

Oh very good 'onedrop'
The mslp archive shows a 1037 hpa going over NZ on 26th jan 2013
.It came up from the sub polar region.
The 1035hpa we have forecast this week strengthens from 1028 in the bight to 1035 wewst of