Autumn has arrived in NSW

Posted by: DaveM

Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2012 10:34

Certainly in the Central Tablelands Autumn is here. This morning had a lovely Autumnal feel - heavy dew (wonder where the moisture came from?) nice clear blue sky morning (now fairly cloudy though).

Stacks of trees now turning or hinting at turning already. Breeze is pleasantly cool. I know we will get more warm weather but I love this anticipation of more coolness out here.

Single digit temps forecast for several nights this week. smile
Posted by: FaulcoChasers

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2012 10:48

I agree! I love this time of year. Even put the flanno sheets on the bed lol. Noticed yesterday even though we are at Faulconbridge my lipstick maple is starting to turn a light shade of red. Here's hoping it all leads into a great snow chasing season this year!
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2012 11:39

One of the real charms of the Tablelands is that they have genuine seasons. In Autumn, after a couple of hours' drive I can be in a place that's crisp and cool, even cold on occaision. Good weather for walking. On the coast, especially after a mild, wet summer, there isn't much of a sense of changing seasons, with mild to warm and often damp weather continuing into May with a very gradual cooling down.
Posted by: Tom1234

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2012 12:12

The main change of Autumn on the coast is a lowering of dew points which is always welcome smile
Temp/DP doesn't normally back off untill April here, so still a little while to go yet.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2012 12:54

As a bit of fun, here are figures for Jan - Jul for Bathurst, Gosford, Norah Head & Hobart


To see the movement of Max temps mainly in the 3 centres is interesting, of course nights VERY different between here and coastal areas but also interesting to see the movements.

AND what will surprise many I suspect is Hobart's temps - check Hobart v Gosford Min in July.

Max Temps

BX GOS N/H HBT
Jan 28.3 27.6 25.7 21.7
Feb 27.3 27.3 25.9 21.6
Mar 24.7 26.0 24.9 20.1
Apr 20.6 23.5 22.8 17.3
May 16.1 20.4 20.0 14.5
Jun 12.5 18.0 18.0 12.0
Jul 11.5 17.6 17.2 11.7

Min Temps

BX GOS N/H HBT
Jan 13.3 16.9 19.6 11.9
Feb 13.2 17.1 20.0 12.0
Mar 10.4 15.3 18.8 10.9
Apr 6.3 11.8 15.8 9.0
May 3.3 8.3 13.1 7.0
Jun 1.5 6.6 10.9 5.2
Jul 0.2 4.8 9.7 4.6

I leave you to review but it's interesting to see the movements between places getting warmer/cooler than each other etc. Eg in Feb Bathurst & Gosford have identical max but look how the max changes from March Onwards.

Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2012 13:02

Sorry that hasn't worked very well - need to set up a table. frown
Posted by: Tom1234

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2012 14:04

haha yeah the formatting on these forums aren't very good, i tried a similar thing last week and it came out messy.

As for Gosfords minimum temps, I believe thats a pretty localised thing. I often note that they have no wind at all on many winter evenings and there temp drops rapidly. Some one who is familiar with the stations location should be able to give a reason why this happens.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2012 14:11

The "Gosford" station is actually in or near Lisarow - ie away from the water in an enclosed valley jus a few km north of Gosford Town centre. It's quite removed from the effects of the water. Places like Lisarow/Ourimbah etc can actually see frost.

However it's interesting to Contrast Lisarow with Norah Head. One of my brothers lives at Tumbi Umbi which is only several km from the Ocean and Tuggerah Lake but it's much colder overnight than The Entrance.

The other really intersting thing is that most people would be surprised at Hobarts temps - it's not that cold really overnight in winter. It's not really colder (overnight) than just near Gosford - nobody will believe that but the stats are there. Gosford overnight July 4.8, Hobart 4.6 shocked

And yeah shame about the formatting.
Posted by: Tom1234

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2012 14:32

Yeah i had a feeling it was an enclosed valley, i asked the question years ago as its always way colder then here. Im probably 10-15km from the ocean but in a more open location, get the WNW'r draining down the Hunter valley most mornings which keeps the frost away.
Hobart is surprisingly warm, im guessing its because of wind?
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2012 14:35

IMO, the Gosford station is in an appalling spot and is not representative of Gosford at all. My mother lives at Gosford and i often note the difference in temps/wind during my visits. If you punch the below coordinates into Google maps you can actually see the WS on street view.

33.3949°S 151.3289°E
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2012 14:45

It was feeling like autumn here a week or so back, the sun had that really tired look to it, the light it cast was more orangey than in summer. A few of the mornings were all drippy and autumn-y. Then we had all that rain so no sun!

The trees were doing yellow leaves a few weeks back, the cold especially over night was telling them it was time, but then it got hot before the rain, and mild with the rain, and I think those leaves dropped off and they have called a halt to more yellow leaves while they sort themselves out.
Posted by: davidm

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2012 14:47

Originally Posted By: DaveM
As a bit of fun, here are figures for Jan - Jul for Bathurst, Gosford, Norah Head & Hobart


To see the movement of Max temps mainly in the 3 centres is interesting, of course nights VERY different between here and coastal areas but also interesting to see the movements.

AND what will surprise many I suspect is Hobart's temps - check Hobart v Gosford Min in July.

Max Temps

BX GOS N/H HBT
Jan 28.3 27.6 25.7 21.7
Feb 27.3 27.3 25.9 21.6
Mar 24.7 26.0 24.9 20.1
Apr 20.6 23.5 22.8 17.3
May 16.1 20.4 20.0 14.5
Jun 12.5 18.0 18.0 12.0
Jul 11.5 17.6 17.2 11.7

Min Temps

BX GOS N/H HBT
Jan 13.3 16.9 19.6 11.9
Feb 13.2 17.1 20.0 12.0
Mar 10.4 15.3 18.8 10.9
Apr 6.3 11.8 15.8 9.0
May 3.3 8.3 13.1 7.0
Jun 1.5 6.6 10.9 5.2
Jul 0.2 4.8 9.7 4.6

I leave you to review but it's interesting to see the movements between places getting warmer/cooler than each other etc. Eg in Feb Bathurst & Gosford have identical max but look how the max changes from March Onwards.



You can use [ code ] tags to use preformatting, such as this:

Code:
Max Temps                           

        BX      GOS      N/H     HBT
Jan    28.3     27.6     25.7    21.7
Feb    27.3     27.3     25.9    21.6
Mar    24.7     26.0     24.9    20.1
Apr    20.6     23.5     22.8    17.3
May    16.1     20.4     20.0    14.5
Jun    12.5     18.0     18.0    12.0
Jul    11.5     17.6     17.2    11.7

Min Temps

        BX       GOS     N/H     HBT 
Jan    13.3     16.9     19.6    11.9 
Feb    13.2     17.1     20.0    12.0
Mar    10.4     15.3     18.8    10.9
Apr     6.3     11.8     15.8     9.0  
May     3.3      8.3     13.1     7.0
Jun     1.5      6.6     10.9     5.2
Jul     0.2      4.8      9.7     4.6


Doesn't look pretty but at least it's formatted wink
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2012 15:02

Originally Posted By: Enrique

Hobart is surprisingly warm, im guessing its because of wind?

Yes, and frequent cloud cover. Hobart is firmly in the westerly belt in winter, thus doesn't see too much fine settled weather. Different story in central/northern NSW where highs can park themselves for days on end- this is why we see -10's on the Northern Tablelands.

Re. the OP, I wouldn't be calling autumn just yet but by gee it's close. No summer like warmth for the next week at least, it seems.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2012 15:37

Davidm - that's exactly what I wanted - well done.

Hobart also sits smack on The Derwent River which is really the ocean - hence sea temps moderate the cold too.

SB also on the mark re cloud and not many still nights although there are more still nights than many might think.

As soon as you travel even a few km inland eg Richmond, it's much frostier. Just upriver at New Norfolk is much frostier too so I put much of the "warmth" to the huge Derwent Estuary.

Go several km inland and 1.265km vertically up and it's much much colder (Mt Wellington).

Hobart though whatever the reasons is NOWHERE near as Coooollld as most people believe.

DUBBO NSW is colder overnight than Hobart - MANY inland areas of NSW are the same.

Just thought it interesting to point it out.

The nights tell us when Autumn arrives around here - it's here, been a noticeable change the last couple of weeks. smile
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2012 15:42

Hey SB - Hobart is in the Westerly quadrants virtually 99% of the time smile

Smack in the Roaring 40's
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2012 15:47

The numbers show why Bathurst has seasons - an annual average temperature range of 15 degrees from about 6 to 21, compared to a typical range of 10 on the coast.

15 is still narrow by North American standards, but comparable to ranges in Western European capitals e.g. London (5 to 18), Berlin (1 to 19).
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2012 16:15

Originally Posted By: DaveM
Hey SB - Hobart is in the Westerly quadrants virtually 99% of the time smile

Wouldn't go that extreme myself, the jetstream/westerly disturbance belt tends to bow south of Australia (and Tasmania) between January-March at least due to the heat of the mainland. Places like Invercargill and Dunedin, further south and further removed from the hot Australian landmass, tend to stay in the westerly belt most of the time- in no month does the average maximum exceed 20C (compared to Hobart's 22-23C).

The odd snow bearing cold front can impact Tassie at any month of the year as you know, but they are still the exception.
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2012 17:23

Thanks davidm, I just made a test copying that code, will save it somewhere for future.
But needed to test first hence this post which I have now deleted.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 07/03/2012 13:13

Bathurst forecast (including this morning) on Opticast is 6 mornings in a row of 8 or 9 degrees and the 7th day 10.

Autumn is here in this little neck of the woods. smile

Nice & cool here - approx 16 degrees atm.
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 07/03/2012 13:17

What conditions are needed for the best Autumn colours?
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 07/03/2012 13:23

Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
What conditions are needed for the best Autumn colours?

Shortening days, good diurnal temperature range with cool/cold minima and a lack of wind are optimal imo.

Sydney neither has cool/cold minima nor calm conditions in autumn, which is why we really don't see colour here.

Horticultural sites often speak of "chilling time"- the amount of hours below 7C a plant needs to produce fruit etc. Perhaps autumn colour is dependent on a certain amount of "chill time"
Posted by: avalon

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 07/03/2012 13:25

For the best in autumn colour you need a wettish summer without too many hot dry windy days that can wreck foliage on soft-leaved deciduous trees, followed by a dry-ish Autumn that has lots of calm sunny days and cold clear nights.Ideally with temps falling repeatedly below 6 or 7 degrees. If you can luck it in for a couple of early frosts then that is when the colour will be truly spectacular.
We had a really chilly Autumn here in 06 i think it was and the colour was fantastic, the last couple of Autumns have been ordinary, too wet in early Autumn and cloudy nights that dont allow the temp to drop.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 07/03/2012 13:32

Interesting you mention a wet summer and my 7C mark as well. I think you're a cool climate horticulturalist/gardener so I'll hand the floor to you avalon:).

Models bring back warm (but not hot) weather at the end of next week, maybe summers' " Cheyne-Stokes stage.
Posted by: avalon

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 07/03/2012 13:56

just my observations from many years. lately i have been thinking that it really has a lot to do with sunlight in Autumn and shortening daylight hours. Its hard to say what actually has the biggest positive effect on Autumn colour.
You can see deciduous trees growing in places like Thredbo Village where they have summer temps that are as cold as Melbournes winter temps, yet the trees keep there leaves on and grow. It must have more to do with the shift in seasonal temps than just getting low overnight temps. If that makes sense?

Anyhow, i hope we get a good one this year.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 07/03/2012 14:15

Yes I know it has to be a combination of factors. My observations make me feel that drier late summer weather and early Autumn dryness help. Sometimes you see changes come noticeably earlier in drought conditions (or so my twisted memory thinks).

I think it was Blizz tracked down some really good info on this last year in the Autumn thread I started back then - worth a look. smile
Posted by: Ron W at Walcha

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/03/2012 06:45

A very autumnal feel here in Walcha this morning with a foggy 1.9 degrees (2.8 at Salisbury Plains). Plenty of deciduous trees have decided to prepare themselves for winter- some in full colour.
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/03/2012 07:17

Wow Ron, I did not see that coming. Just the usual cold foggy drizzly here but no clear sky above like you.
Quite cold yesterday with a range of 6.9 to 12.8.
Geez I hope this Autumn is at least dry and sunny, really badly need that before winter hits.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/03/2012 09:08

Good effort there Ron shocked

Your neck of the woods is definitely frostier than here in Bathurst.

PD - today won't be any better I suspect. We had a bit of a spit here was all - nothing exciting.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/03/2012 09:43

I'm sure there'll be an Indian summer to enjoy at some stage, even I would like a bit of sun now as the UV gets a little less intense. 106 mm here overnight- a bit more than a spit over this side.

I hope to take a trip to Walcha this winter, would like to experience a -10C morning and hopefully some freezing fog too.
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/03/2012 09:46

Certainly feels like autumn on the NSW coast.. oh what i would give for a 25C+ day, there were plenty of those in recent years at this time of year, now we're sitting on 15C (as is most of syd)
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/03/2012 09:55

Originally Posted By: Flood
Certainly feels like autumn on the NSW coast.. oh what i would give for a 25C+ day, there were plenty of those in recent years at this time of year, now we're sitting on 15C (as is most of syd)

Won't have to wait too long Boris. Tomorrow will easily exceed 25C, 30C may be given a nudge in parts of Sydney as the low moves off. OCF still calling for a full day of sunshine and 28 deg, whilst GFS has 850 temps up to 12-13 and westerlies for most of the day. Not complaining as we could use a little bit of a dry out.

Most of next week will also be at or above 25 deg. Autumn might be creeping in on the tablelands but Sydney and the coast must wait till April. Might be 15 deg now but this is in the middle of an ECL, much like Darwin drops to the low 20's in the middle of the monsoon. In short- it's a temporary anomaly.
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/03/2012 09:59

I dont see how we'll exceed 25C let alone 30C with these southerlies sticking around til monday not to mention chance of showers on various days of the forecast.. we'll see what happens anyway, certainly hope your right William.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/03/2012 11:35

The very coastal fringe will be quite different (esp overnight) to places like Windsor etc as Autumn goes further.

Inland will have warm to even hot days still but nights out there will start to fall a bit.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/03/2012 18:25

Yep, Windsor although still technically on the coastal plain is not as affected by the prevailing SSTs. Also they are coming from a higher base, where 30C is the average summer maximum (but not this summer), so March usually feels significantly cooler for them.

Currently just below 20 deg with a fresh westerly wind, that is autumnal but won't last long. For seasonal change there has to be a clear and defined change in prevailing conditions i.e. not a flash in the pan. March can see plenty of 'flashes in the pan' but the real change is in April (I'd argue that for Bathurst too).
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2012 09:01

Sorry SB - the whole feel of somewhere like here changes late Feb early March. It's VERY different to the coast, where the time lag of the change is many times greater.

How it feels now is a world away from 3 or 4 weeks ago. We will still get days over 25 (only a few) but the nights have turned a noticeable corner, morning has a real coolness and sometimes a slight chill. Evenings cool off much more quickly now. We are going to have increasing nights of single digits (already had a few) and not getting above 10 to 12 much at all.

Talk to pretty much anyone out here and they will say that Autumn has begun even without knowing the numbers, the FEEL has changed noticeably.

April - yep changes even more once the Equinox is gone but March is a drop of approx 3 to 4 degrees in max and about 3 to 4 degrees min - that's a noticeable change.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2012 09:30

Guess we'll have to agree to disagree on this one smile

The standard for autumn in Bathurst is obviously a lot cooler than Sydney, I'd argue 'true' autumn there starts with the first ground frost or at least a string of mornings below 5C. Single figure mornings are still quite common on the tablelands (though scattered) in Jan and Feb, Goulburn Airport got down to just below zero in that cold change in January. For Sydney, my standard is when you no longer sweat of a night time- to put a temp value on it maybe sustained minima below about 16C/60F.

I categorise March as somewhere between summer and autumn- 'summer lite' or 'pre-autumn', yes there is a change from high summer (Jan and Feb) but I wouldn't call it true autumn. Again, just my viewpoint smile.

Anyway debates like this are ultimately pi$$ing into the wind a little as Mother Nature will do what she wants as we all know.
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2012 10:16

I am still struggling with Sydney's forecast of 27 for today?. Yet Sunday they have only 23?. I would have said 25 for both days.
Yes a clear early autumn feel now, maybe pre-autumn before the proper autumn. A few leaves starting to turn colour a bit more over the past week, clearly the colours are beginning on some trees although still very much early stages and many trees that have not noticed anything yet as well.
Temps on most nights now 10 or lower as well while mostly above 10 before.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2012 10:23

Originally Posted By: PeterDuke
I am still struggling with Sydney's forecast of 27 for today?. Yet Sunday they have only 23?. I would have said 25 for both days.

Winds will be westerly today and SE'ly on the weekend. GFS has 850 temps up to 13 this afternoon, with clear skies 27 should be easily reached and probably exceeded, I'm going for 29C-30C across the Basin this afternoon.
Posted by: davidg

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2012 10:24

Agreed RE: Sydney's forecast max. Maybe 27-28 out this way but in the city i just dont see it happening. Happy to be proven wrong though after such miserable weather all summer.

Definate Autumn feel this morning. Heavy dew, 12c min, fog in the west with a clear sunny day and max's in the mid 20's. Couldnt be more Autumn if it tried!
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2012 10:42

Yes, classic autumn this morning but it's a teaser: as I've said above March offers a preview of autumn but most of the month is generally warm without the heat of Jan and Feb. Looking at Sydney more closely, average temps are pretty much the same in December and March, and decile 1 maximum temps do not fall below 20C until April:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_066062_All.shtml

Autumn should bring the chance of cooler (sub 20C) days for Sydney, and sub 15C days for places like Bathurst and Canberra.
Posted by: PeterB

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2012 10:58

Another cool autumn morning on the NT.
Min at Armidale city was 4.4C,
Salisbury Plains near Uralla 2.2C,
Glen Innes airport 2C.
Posted by: kizz

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2012 11:11

Autumn starts for me when the first of the winter-type fronts push through Sydney. A dry SW change as opposed to the southerly change. Dew points drop to single digits and coastal sites get sub teen minima. This occurs in April.

March is still summer for mine. As it is for the equinox/solstice evangelists.

If those southerlies leave us alone for a while (which hasn't happened this Summer) the weather will still get warm and sticky in the next few weeks.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2012 11:30

Semantics rule - MY definition of Autumn is when I know summer has basically left the scene - NOT in it's entirety but it's influence is definitely waning. I know it will get cooler still in April but it is NOT summer here.

EVERY season is either in a building up or slowing down phase at ANY point during that season. Autumn/Summer/Spring/Winter - noe of these are one set of temperatures only - all are movable feasts.

Here in Bathurst Autumn has BEGUN - that is all I've been trying to say!! I didn't say we had reached FULL autumn conditions. If you Coastal posters came out here and sat around at night you would be cold - and you would be colder (out here) now than 3 or 4 weeks ago - all I'm trying to say.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2012 11:38

I think in a place like Sydney where average temeratures are fairly mild all year, seasons are largely a social construct. Of course, most (but not all) days in January are warmer than most days in July, but the change between those is slow and gradual with many reverses along the way. Rainfall doesn't give a cue - in Sydney it's essentially random, although stats show that the first half of the year is on average wetter than the second half - crossing traditional seasonal boundaries. Summer in Sydney is cloudier than winter, contrary to the belief and expectations even of people who have lived here all their life - again, cultural.

More definite cues come from the start and end of daylight saving, but this is man made (person made? anthropogenic?). Likewise our swimming season follows convention - only the keen surfers swim in May and June, even though the ocean (and often even the weather) is warmer than in November.

Possibly the best cues for seasons may be the occurrences of extreme temperatures (measured away from the coast). Summer would be the period when hot days (max 32+) are common - roughly mid November to mid March. Winter would be when 'cold' (by coastal standards) days are common (max below 15 and/or min below 5) - roughly mid May to Mid September. That would leave short two month seasons for Autumn and Spring. The boundaries would vary from year to year. In 2011/12, winter started in early May, Spring started in early August, Summer started around Nov 1, retreated on Dec 1 and made a shaky comeback in the New Year. It has probably finished now but we'll have to wait and see.

I'm sure lots of other schemes are possible, but I think the above fits Southern and Central coastal NSW quite well.
Posted by: Yowie

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2012 11:46

Here in the 'Gong, there are trees turning orange and dropping their leaves. There was that noticable 'chill' in the breeze, and the sun is not quite as brutal on my (very fair) skin. I'm sure we've still got a quite a few days that still feel like summer ahead, but the days that feel more like winter have started.

And that makes it the start of Autumn to my mind. YMMV.
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2012 15:20

Well after all the excitement of yesterdays heavy rain, we have managed a beautiful sunny top of 28c here in Sydney today!!
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2012 15:26

Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Well after all the excitement of yesterdays heavy rain, we have managed a beautiful sunny top of 28c here in Sydney today!!

For once I'm with you CS22, we needed this to dry out after yesterday. Not surprising though given the low has spun off to the SE giving us the warm dry W'ly in its wake. This was predicted by GFS a while ago.

What is surprising is that you're crowing about a 28C day with low DP's, shows you how mild this summer has been wink.
Posted by: davidg

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2012 22:57

Just thought it might be worth noting that Thredbo top station has had its wettest March on record (36 years) after just the first 9days!. Prevous wettest was 217mm, they have already recorded 399mm! Not only is its its wettest March on record but both max and Min temps have been wellbelow average.

Anyway max temps have been well below average for literally the entire region bounde byt the S-SE States and then some. lets hope this trend continues through autumn and into winter. A few NW cloud bands coupled with strong fronts woud be a nice change from recent years. Couple of weeks of sun would be nice though before hand. I dont ask too much do i?
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/03/2012 09:04

Those are indeed quite incredible stats, only thing is that the rain for the 1st actually fell on the 29th, same thing happened to me 92.8mm fell on the 29th lowering my March total. Should be some better way to group the rain data to avoid this confusion when comparing monthly stats. However never the less even February has not had this much rain so that still means a record for this time of year.

Comparing to 1974 that year had a lot of rain in April, 305mm in Thredbo village and also a wet January so some similarity there anyway.

Nice cool morning here this morning at 6.2, nothing unusual but nicely on que for this time of year too. Lot more mornings like this over coming days.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/03/2012 09:28

Quite cool and foggy here this morning (7 or 8 degrees o/n) - I actually put jeans on to come to work (another sign of Autumn) left the shorts at home several days this week. Too cold on the tootsies although a nice warm day of about 25 to come once the fog gets out of the way.

Still only about 10 atm.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/03/2012 16:00

Looks like our preview of autumn will come to a screeching halt next week, 850 temps increasing again across the continent, will definitely feel like summer at the end of the week even on the tablelands. Kalbarri got to 45C yesterday.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/03/2012 20:56

Yep, even today didn't feel like autumn, although the sun had that deeper yellow cast. No nip in the air, hardly any wind, it was a classic. forecast has the temps going into the upper 20s and I wonder where all that heat from WA is going to end up?
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/03/2012 00:15

Maybe all this Autumn talk is jumping the gun a bit.

I know what Dave Number 4 means by starting this thread, and I've actually found that he has a point with the cooler mornings etc....

But..... I mowed the back lawn today. It took 15 minutes and afterwards, I was sweating like a WWF wrestler that had stopped pretending for his wages and had started working for it.
DP's are still quite high at times at this time of the year, so although the temps may have dropped a degree or three, and the mornings are a little cooler, the fact is we are still a month away from the proper onslaught of a decent change of seasons.
I do know what Dave No. 4 means though. The trees are changing and there is certainly a feel in the air.

Homer
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/03/2012 06:57

Spot on Homer, love the wrestling analogy.

Obs Hill didn't fall below 19.9C last night. Canberra was warm too at 12.0, already up to 15 there. Hardly autumnal now!
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/03/2012 08:59

Another above 10deg night (12.2 in fact) which is more like summer than autumn now, certainly this week will be more summer like than any other week the summer gone. Mowed the lawn again 4.5 hours of slogging (not 15min like you Homer), grass and other growth has got a second burst of spring like growth which is not autumn like at all.

I have to agree with the notion that the first day of autumn is in fact about the 23/03 once we reach the equinox that is still not until the end of next week.

Anyway still nice to enjoy the last weeks of an "Indian summer" seeing we have not had any real summer anyway.

Over the years I have always noticed there comes a specific point when autumn finally starts proper when you notice that patches of grass suddenly stop growing. Usually the tips of the grass get dry or yellow ends despite the grass remaining green. This is not always necessarily due to frost or dry conditions just the grass going into hibernation. Usually this will happen in April, can be early April. This day cannot come soon enough now since that is when the grass truly stops growing and autumn is definitely here. Also cannot wait for daylight savings to end, just incredibly tiring at this time of year, feels like I am loosing an hour a day until it ends.
Posted by: Tom1234

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/03/2012 14:16

4.5 hours to mow your lawn, hope you have a ride on for that.
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/03/2012 14:35

Nope, just pushing, too many trees/bushes/obstacles to weave around for a ride on, I could not imagine how I would do it other than by hand. Will not be long now before my lawn work gets replaced by cutting wood.
Posted by: Tom1234

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/03/2012 14:39

Damn, get a zero turn mower. No way would spend 4.5 hours walk mowing, unless im getting paid at work to walk mow greens.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/03/2012 16:24

PD - 9 here overnight, you must live in the "tropical" highlands smile

At least this time of year, the temp starts dropping reasonably quickly after sunset (at least in the Tablelands areas) We can have warm days but the house is not heating up too much at all now.

Daves - non conventional signs of Autumn coming on:

1) Sometimes wearing jeans and shoes to work instead of shorts/sandles
2) Considering sometimes leaving curtains open during day to actually allow heat into house
3) Start looking at wood pile
4) Look for sleeveless vest to take to tennis
5) Sometimes switching blanket on bed for thin quilt - then taking off again.
6) Will sometimes actually stand in the sun and not whinge too much
7) Notice wiper blades not so good when swiping heavy dew off screen

I'm sure others have some "interesting" non conventional signs/symptoms of Autumn other than traditional weather & tree monitoring. smile I thought of a few other good ones previously but they've left me now.
Posted by: Blizzard

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/03/2012 17:43

Colours starting to look nice here but its still a way off for autumn to really kick in. It varies every year but some time in April shows signs of cooler/crisper days. Autumn, from about early April to early June is my favourite time of year, as winter doesn't usually kick in here until mid June, although each year varies.

I like winter gutsy cold fronts by far as the best weather event but cool mornings under 6C and mild, sunny/cloudy days under 15C is my favourite outdoor weather, closely followed by 8C and sunny in winter. Great for gardening and anything outdoors. Lower risk of skin cancer too.

I've ditched a lot of the lawn here, made the front lawn a cottage garden with picket fence and path and half of the back lawn a chook yard, which is fenced off and includes a pond. They mow the grassy part and fertilize the native garden part for me. Mowing takes me half an hour, for the bit of grass I have left, including the verge.

Found a largish one of these crawling over me in the shower this morning, thought it was water dripping down my neck so brushed it onto the ground, and was a bit shocked. Everything is breeding up like mad this year, this fella was in my towel!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centipede

Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/03/2012 18:00

The coming of Autumn isn't as big a deal on the coast, but there are some signs:
* Dark when I get up (early - mid March - still gloomy at 7:00am on cloudy days)
* Daylight saving ends
* Easter (first Easter eggs in shops is an early sign that summer is on the way out)
* Need use blankets again - late March / early April
* Get out coats / jumpers - normally April. Hopefully find a $20 note in coat I haven't worn since last winter.
* Put away fan - normally end of March but this year I didn't need to get it out.
* Dig out heater - normally early / mid May
* Occaisional calm sunny days - these are uncommon in summer because if there's no strong air circulation pattern the seabreeze takes over
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/03/2012 19:06

I like the look of EC at the end of the model runs, could see some April like weather that is cool and sunny with westerly winds by the Equinox. I am far from believing long range forecasts of a wet April at this stage.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/03/2012 22:23

Originally Posted By: PeterDuke
Nope, just pushing, too many trees/bushes/obstacles to weave around for a ride on, I could not imagine how I would do it other than by hand. Will not be long now before my lawn work gets replaced by cutting wood.


Same here. Spent pretty-much all of yesterday mowing. I have a tough Rover push mower, goes high enough for the rocks and things, handles the weeds OK. Did about 7 different areas of grass (alleged grass, well it was green) but ran out of 50:1 before the big proper lawn. I was so stuffed. The clippings are good, they get sprinkled around the bare ground, and make it possible for the grass seed to grow, it's been really effective. Bare ground that's been bare for years, a few layers of clippings and grass seed and suddenly it's all grassed. And this is the time to do it, autumn is excellent for getting grass going.

But in the evening, I took a walk down to the big tree I sliced up 2 years ago, and there's some promising cracks in the rounds, so shortly it'll be the block splitter and the ute, getting that wood for winter heating.
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/03/2012 22:52

Ant, its a busy life living in the country, do not know how we find time to go to work.

I think I will be watching the models quite closely now, I can sense that early autumn change is just around the corner just near or past the Equinox. 06z showing good agreement with EC, looking foreword to those cool sunny days and cool nights and probably the first light frost of the new season.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/03/2012 00:48

I have been working the past 4 days, that's for sure. Tomorrow (today, really) I go back to non-work. Tons of things on my list still not done, the broccoli seedlings are still in their punnet... pulled a lot of stuff out of the veggie garden but didn't get to put in the new pooh or new plants/seeds. Sprayed the hell out of a few acres of weeds though.

I was hoping for a long mild autumn, I hope you're wrong about an early winter. I just planted out today some Burke's Backyard cold weather tomatoes in special dodgy little beds I made at the foot of a rock wall. An early frost is not wanted. These things apparently can handle frost but not when they're so little.
Posted by: Rainbow Spirit

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/03/2012 05:47

We people with solar panels are hanging out for some sunny autumn days to compensate for that sad excuse for summer.
Posted by: Blizzard

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/03/2012 13:58

ACCESSR 00z shows an autumn trend by 00Z Friday. Of course, that isn't a forecast (humans make forecasts, not models) but its interesting to see just a bit of zonal activity showing up.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/03/2012 16:42

Bugger. It is so nice today... warm, a little wind, the sun isn't as fierce as it would be in January, it's incredibly civilised. I wish all summers were like this. And I see they've extended the warmth a bit, and as hoped, "storms" have crept into tomorrow and Thursday. Yippee.

But to have a cold blast so soon, that's not fair.
Edit: is it that High that's quite low down, in the Bight, behind the trough? That would be pushing some nasty cold air up at us.
Posted by: Blizzard

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/03/2012 17:45

Yeah, not really a cold blast just yet ant as its probably still a bit of a summery trough setup as this initial front weakens on Friday.

Extended GFS shows signs of a more zonal pattern possibly starting, we will have to wait and see. Yeah, there is some cold air moving into the Bight later in the model runs, at present anyway. Typically nothing really eventuates of a wintry nature in March but the end of GFS is showing some possibilities.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/03/2012 22:05

Hopefully the cold stuff fizzles. A long Indian Summer would be nice, and allow my poor tomatoes to ripen. Today was so nice, and it was quite warm this evening, until a cool easterly began wafting through.

Interesting sweep of cloud through the Bight.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 14/03/2012 06:12

As Blizz says, there's little risk of genuine cold in March as the sub-tropical ridge is usually way down south, contracting fronts to the high latitudes. Tassie and NZ see some of their most settled weather in Feb-March.

I'd like a dry and warm period as well,as long as nights remain cool and days don't get into the 30's.

Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 14/03/2012 09:34

About 9 here this morning - big fog, it got much cooler than I expected.

After Tennis (about 9.30) last night it seemed still quite warmish - heaps of bugs in the lights (humidity seems to encourage that) it felt like it wouldn't cool as much as recent nights - Wrong again. Sun working on clearing the lifted fog atm - breeze still very fresh.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 14/03/2012 09:55

Add to Southerly Buster's recipe for Perfect March... all of the above except I'd like rain every 3 or 4 days, possibly a scenic storm around 6pm. It's nice to enjoy the warm, without the fear of it flaring up into a heatwave. Seeing everything furiously growing, the fuzz of green grass (from my carefully strewn seed).

Drippy dewy morning here, and yeah, there were significant bugs around last night! The air cooled right down but it was still shorts and t shirt until bed time.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 14/03/2012 13:36

I'd even be happy if we stay dry until after Easter, though I'll be careful what I wish for. I reckon next summer will be a good test of where we're at climate wise this decade, with both ENSO and IOD predicted to remain in the neutral range.
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 14/03/2012 16:14

Blizz, DaveM and other high country folk, You got to love the latest 00z GFS.
Still looking good for those cool sunny conditions from the Equinox.
Good chance for that early light frost for sure, nothing too major of course, but nice.
Yes SB, I will be happy too to stay dry for a few weeks at least.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 14/03/2012 21:26

Originally Posted By: Southerly_Buster
I'd even be happy if we stay dry until after Easter, though I'll be careful what I wish for. I reckon next summer will be a good test of where we're at climate wise this decade, with both ENSO and IOD predicted to remain in the neutral range.


Yeah. It'll be interesting. What's the rain going to do, and what're the temperatures going to do. I've been wondering the same thing. Lull before the heat storm? Or more "normal" rainfall?
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 15/03/2012 08:58

GFS quite bullish indeed - worth watching. Right on time for the equinox almost to the day. shocked

That red line is pushed well north for this time of year. Have to see what the other models think as well the next few days.
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 15/03/2012 10:17

18z GFS even more bullish. Models still jumping around as Blizz says at this time of year, but now this scenario seems to have been repeated in quite a few model runs so who knows. Certainly a noticable cooling of some sort already seems near certain in that time period of end of next week.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 15/03/2012 10:24

Yes I've been watching that cold area in the long term models and it's been reasonably persistent for a while that there was some substance there.

Tassie certainly looking quite interesting let alone possibly some errant flakes in Vic & maybe NSW alps.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 15/03/2012 10:28

Snowies area may see frost afterwards even around say Jindabyne/Adaminaby - Still I usually expect a frost at some point around April around here too but usually mid to late, it MIGHT just come a little earlier for someone in our region too this year.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 16/03/2012 13:22

Back to high summer today with 30/20 in parts of Sydney atm. This may be the last true summer day of the season though as the next week looks like featuring overnight temps in the mid teens and comfortable daytime temps, and the promise of the first cold change of the season bringing some drier air on the 23rd-24th.

If this cold change "delivers", I may declare autumn 2012 open for business smile.

Perhaps a better way to assess seasonal change on the coast is through average DP (and its close cousin overnight minima), as kizz and others have alluded to. When you get 20C DPs it is definitely not autumn, but a 30C day with single figure DPs is allowed as it is not typical summer weather for the region.

Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 18/03/2012 11:17

Sitting at crookwell wind farm ATM. Brisk SE wind and quite wintry. This lookout is about 900 m asl. Some poplars in sheltered spots have gone yellow, impressive for mid march. Pejar dam also full to the brim, marvelous to see!
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 18/03/2012 16:10

Sounds nice SB, pretty cool here too. Models are consolidating for next Friday to be a fairly decent change for March, will not be much precipitation with it, but will get quite cool. 850 temps will drop to between 0 and 5 on Friday night for much of the SE. No doubt early light frosts along the tablelands from Saturday morning onwards.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 18/03/2012 18:12

Yes PD that should be the change that kills off summer once and for all. Amazing that it's bang on the Equinox. Still another warm to hot day to get through on Wednesday it seems at least for the coast. Those 850 temps will still produce mild daytime temps in Sydney given the time of year but night temps should drop nicely with that shot of cool dry air.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 19/03/2012 09:12

Looks like something is coming through here Wednesday night, it's slated to be 26c that day, and then plummeting into the teens for Thursday, and the nights go into low single figures, ouch! We've already had some cold nights, Saturday night I had two blankies over my summer doona and needed them.

The trees though stopped turning yellow when it warmed up a few weeks back, only really autumnal tree I have is a maple down in the most sheltered spot, it's turned bright red. It's one of those trees where the sticks are red and yellow. I guess everything will resume going yellow now. Tuesday and Wed might be the real end of summer for us.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 20/03/2012 20:11

The Autumn equinox occurred today Tuesday 20 March 2012 at 4:14 pm AEDT, so the calendar now says it is definitely now Autumn for those who go by the equinox. And the forecast for Sydney for this weekend is looking distinctly autumnal, with cool nights and a SW change. So long Summer 2011/12 (and good riddance).
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 20/03/2012 20:47

Originally Posted By: Steve777
The Autumn equinox occurred today Tuesday 20 March 2012 at 4:14 pm AEDT, so the calendar now says it is definitely now Autumn for those who go by the equinox. And the forecast for Sydney for this weekend is looking distinctly autumnal, with cool nights and a SW change. So long Summer 2011/12 (and good riddance).


I would NEVER say good riddance to Summer 11/12. It has been the most beautiful for a builder. Bit of rain......yeh. Temps,................ suffered early but the rest was perfect. Constantly cooler than average day below 30.
Best, as in coolest and most tolerable (and best for the elec bills) summer for at least 15 years.

Homer
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 21/03/2012 06:05

2007/08 gave it a run for its money but I think 2011/12 just wins by a nose as the coolest summer I've experienced here. Heat never really got established at any stage (unless you count November). I was expecting a hot March to compensate but this hasn't happened either.

I expect 2012/13 to be a shocker, but I won't worry about that just yet.
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 21/03/2012 07:31

Do not forget about 99/00, I am still unsure how that compared since I do not have full records here for that summer. But I think it was slightly colder than 07/08.
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 21/03/2012 09:30

So glad the hideous summer of 11/12 is done and dusted, hopefully it’s another 40yrs before we see another one like it! One good thing about the summer of 07/08 & 99/00 is that the following summer were much hotter, so hopefully next summer will be much above the average.

I actually find my power bills are much higher in the winter with the running of heaters, where’s in the summer i only need a fan to keep cool, just doesn’t get hot enough in Sydney to warrant an A/C in my opinion.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 21/03/2012 09:40

These are the average summer maxima for Bankstown for recent cool summers. I think Bankstown is more representative of what most Sydneysiders actually experience than Observatory Hill:

Code:
 	Dec	Jan	Feb	Summer
Average	27.2	28.2	27.8	27.7
 	 	 	 	 
2011/12	23.8	27.4	26.6	25.9
Anomaly	-3.4	-0.8	-1.2	-1.8
 	 	 	 	 
2007/08	26.1	27.7	25.4	26.4
Anomaly	-1.1	-0.5	-2.4	-1.3
 	 	 	 	 
1999/00	25.1	25.8	29.3	26.7
Anomaly	-2.1	-2.4	+1.5	-1.0
 	 	 	 	 



So 2011/12 was the worst (or best depending on your point of view), with December the coolest on record (data since 1968). 1999/00 started cool but flipped into warm around mid January. 2007/08 was not that cool except in February but came after a run of hot summers.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 21/03/2012 09:50

Here are some figures for Riverview AWS in each of those summers (Riverview seems the closest climatologically to my location). Canterbury AWS has missing data. All figures taken from Lauriers' site .

1999/2000

December 1999: 16.3/24.2
January 2000: 16.5/25.0
February 2000: 18.2/28.1
March 2000: 18.3/25.4
Mean Temp: 21.5

2007/08

December 2007: 17.1/25.2
January 2008: 19.1/26.5
February 2008: 17.0/24.6
March 2008: 15.2/25.5
Mean Temp: 21.275


2011/12

December 2011: 15.3/22.6
January 2012: 18.0/26.3
February 2012: 17.6/25.4
March 2012: 16.4/24.9 (to date)
Provisional Mean Temp: 20.8125

Someone might like to check my calculations. Obviously a few rounding errors in the data that are unavoidable.

Looks like 2011/12 will end up the winner, mainly due to a very cold December 2011. February 2000 was pretty warm in this neck of the woods but the rest of the summer was cool. 07/08 was more consistently cool but missing a genuinely cold month like December 2011.

Riverview has a few missing obs here and there also but they don't really affect the mean too much when compared to other sites.

EDIT: Darn, beat me to it Steve!
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 21/03/2012 10:42

Very thorough analysis SB.

The other thing about 2011/12 was the marked lack of hot days, much more so than 1999/00 or 2007/08. Again using Bankstown to represent Sydney:

Code:
        	Dec	Jan	Feb	Summer
				
Average - 30+	7.6	8.9	6.9	23.4
Average - 35+	2.3	2.5	1.9	 6.7
				
2011/12 - 30+	0	5	6	11
2011/12 - 35+	0	1	0	 1
				
2007/08 - 30+	5	9	1	15
2007/08 - 35+	0	2	0	 2
				
1999/00 - 30+	3	5	10	18
1999/00 - 35+	0	2	 3	 5



(In fact, heat haters would not have liked February 2000).
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 21/03/2012 10:51

I didn't think we'd get lucky enough to have two reasonable summers on the trot. I think last summer was wetter than this one for us, but this one was definitely milder, so very few really hot days. And we did have quite a dry patch of months earlier on, and then a rush of wet in recent months.

A mild wettish winter would be nice...
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 21/03/2012 13:29

Originally Posted By: ant
A mild wettish winter would be nice...


You have got to be joking!!, no way would I want that, the ideal is BITTERLY VERY COLD an WET. But I would not want too wet, just wet enough.

I noticed BOM have changed my colour IR satellite picture yesterday, its passable but I hate the low res of temps below zero, a little worse than the last one. The best picture was the one they had about 7 years ago, continous colours for all temps. Makes it that much harder to forecast without that.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 21/03/2012 16:32

Bitterly cold and wet means I will need my firewood more, and it'll be all wet. Yuck!

What's this colour IR satellite? The infrared is just white cloud. I really like the visible one better, a lot more dramatic cloud-wise!
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 21/03/2012 17:39

Previous Satellite pic prior Monday, Look at the size of Australia so much bigger before!!


New pic now so much worse


The one used 7 years ago was much better than both of these with an infinite scale for the temps then they introduced the fixed colour and temperature blocks which made the resolution worse, now its worse again since its so small as well.

Thanks for posting the temp stats guys, I will have to have a look at Bathurst as well, but I am now convinced then that this summer was the coldest.
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 21/03/2012 22:59

Originally Posted By: ant

What's this colour IR satellite? The infrared is just white cloud.


Yes, the IR is. The Colour IR has it coloured, as PD has shown you.

Homer
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 22/03/2012 00:54

Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: ant

What's this colour IR satellite? The infrared is just white cloud.


Yes, the IR is. The Colour IR has it coloured, as PD has shown you.

Homer


why, thank you for posting that. I'd have no doubt missed Peter Duke's reply if you hadn't. So helpful.
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 22/03/2012 14:40

No problems ant. Always happy to help out.

Homer
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 22/03/2012 14:52

That cold air mass looks terrific atm.
Could be a few surprises.

Homer
Posted by: davidg

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 22/03/2012 18:01

Ill second that Homer, Tasmania is going to cop it over the weekend. One of the guys from work is going to be down around cradle mountain from Monday next week so just misses out on the snow fall. I would wager there will eb a few snow patches hanging around the peaks until mid next week tho.

Max of 19.6c in Penrith today, light rain falling this afternoon as well. Sat and Sun this week looking spectacular though, classic Autumn weather smile
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 22/03/2012 19:57

Originally Posted By: davidg
Ill second that Homer, Tasmania is going to cop it over the weekend. One of the guys from work is going to be down around cradle mountain from Monday next week so just misses out on the snow fall. I would wager there will eb a few snow patches hanging around the peaks until mid next week tho.

Max of 19.6c in Penrith today, light rain falling this afternoon as well. Sat and Sun this week looking spectacular though, classic Autumn weather smile



This weekend is going to be the best in ages. Beautiful clear blue skies, nice dry westerly's, cool mornings and not overly excessive heat in the sun.
As you say - classic Autumn weather. Perfect for a daughters 8th birthday shindig at Homebush Bay.
We've had a few showers here today. A couple of short sharp bursts. In for a few more soon too.
Oops, wrong thread. Oh bugger it. 17.3 and nice atm.

Homer
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 22/03/2012 20:26

That is rather cool for Penrith today, cooler up here at 15.0 but not massively at all. But looks good this weekend, nice cool sunny autumn weather and good chance of some light frosts here latter in the weekend.

I certainly like the look of the ends of the model runs too, another cool change of sorts in another week or two and really settling into a nice settled autumnal pattern of drier cooler weather. I am hoping BOM will be proven wrong about expecting a wet April. What I want now is a couple of dry mild sunny month, followed by the onset of winter with regular cold fronts.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 23/03/2012 09:04

Breeze quite fresh in Bathurst this morning - tonight shoud be QUITE cool if it is clear and still. Chance of a frost somewhere in this region the next few nights.

Davidg - my son works at Cradle (chef) they may cross paths.

The face of Cradle that everyone sees all face north so the snow will go very quickly. If they can find some south facing mountain areas by walking or driving past other mountians they may see some. smile Might see so in sheltered/shaded spots if lucky but it usually melt quite quickly this time of year.

Still Cradle is a wonderful spot snow or not.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 23/03/2012 10:21

19C here yesterday also, funny how it will be much warmer here today but probably a tad cooler at Sunny Corner/Bathurst. House is quite cool now and should stay that way given the cooler nights.

I can now declare autumn 2012 open for business, ladies and gentlemen. Certainly a nice weekend on the way for the coast, though the sun is still a little too strong in the middle of the day atm to be totally enjoyable.
Posted by: mkeene(pingtang)

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 23/03/2012 14:59

Looking forward to late Autumn/ winter this time around. So over summer and storm chasing, big time, and im not exactly looking forward to the next season like I used to. I would like one or two offshore lightshows though! Cant wait for those chilly evenings!!!
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 24/03/2012 00:04

Figured there was a bit of snow up top today... Snowcams show a little bit. http://www.snowcams.com.au/
bit of accumulation on the edge of the tin track from the top of Karels, and you can see it falling in the other shots.
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 24/03/2012 09:16

There's a whole street of liquid ambar tree's near where i work, and yesterday on my way home i noticed the tops of the trees had already started to turn!! I'm not sure if you would consider this early, but it's the first time I've noticed it in March before.
Posted by: Stormyweather

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 24/03/2012 09:23

6C this morning at 7am in Hazelbrook
Posted by: aussielunix

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 24/03/2012 09:35

A beautiful crisp 4 up here at Leura.
Posted by: PeterB

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 24/03/2012 09:50

Coolest morning of the year so far here in Armidale.
3.2C at the city weather station.
3.4C at the airport.
Glen Innes airport was even colder at 0.6C, no doubt with a light frost.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 24/03/2012 10:50

Nice cool night in Bathurst this am around 4 or 5 degrees. Had my windows wide open in the bedroom and it was 8 degrees on my bedside drawers this morning - lovely.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 24/03/2012 12:50

Originally Posted By: DaveM
Nice cool night in Bathurst this am around 4 or 5 degrees. Had my windows wide open in the bedroom and it was 8 degrees on my bedside drawers this morning - lovely.


8 degrees at the bedside - maybe a bit too cool for me.

A beautiful day in Sydney after a pleasantly crisp morning - minimum about 12 deg over most of the metro area but a few single figures. Now clear, dry and low 20's with a bit of a breeze. Definitely autumn.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 24/03/2012 13:58

Yes, perfect day today in Sydney, my ideal summer weather (and a typical summers' day in a place like Armidale). Tomorrow will probably be cooler as winds swing back onshore, another quirk of our climate on the lowlands. Coastal fringe has a weak easterly already.
Posted by: Canberra's Weather

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 24/03/2012 22:50

5°C in Canberra already! bounce LOOKING GOOD!
Posted by: Cloudz

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 24/03/2012 23:32

Not surprised it's chilly in Canberra - 'they' must have been watching the QLD election result! wink
Posted by: Snow Gypsy

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 25/03/2012 11:03

Saturday morning saw our first frost of the season with 2C as a minimum.
Not as cold last night and no frost (that I saw, anyway)! Beautiful sunny day with quite a cool breeze today.
The change to autumn colour on the trees has been occurring for more than a month, with some trees bringing on their autumn hues about a month early.
Posted by: Storm Hunter

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 25/03/2012 22:28

Light easterly blowing all day,bringing in some cloud off the coast,looks like some showers have developed on the coast now to my north east moving inland a bit too,might get a shower inland this far in the morning.Looks to be some heavy showers at the moment just to the ne of Sydney moving down toweards the city.
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 25/03/2012 22:33

What surprised me is that even Moruya, Bega and Batemans Bay all had a low of 5deg on Saturday morning.
3.5 here but still no frost up here since that January frost.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 25/03/2012 23:19

No frosts here yet, luckily. Cold on Friday night, I took the dog outside and was breathing vapour. It was clear and windless which didn't help. Cloudy tonight and there's an easterly so no danger of frost unless something changes. These cooler nights will start the leaves turning though. Some have already gone purple or red, the ones that go yellow are taking longer.

Changed my doona to a winter one today. figured needing two blankies on top of the summer one every night was a pretty clear sign it was time.
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 26/03/2012 14:25

Well the latest GFS would bring Autumn to a screaming halt for us here, with 850 temps hovering around 15c+ from the 4th-9th April. Even the normally conservative EC is showing a good build up of heat through central aus, and all of this right in time for Easter, yes please! smile
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 26/03/2012 19:55

Yep, looks like a big Indian Summer coming up, which isn't surprising. Could be like April 2005 with a couple of 30C days and no rain. We have to pay for the mild summer some time, better now than in winter.



Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 26/03/2012 22:17

Next 7 days is looking rather nice here, although we have showers forecast now for Wednesday, easterly air bringing in it apparently. But 24c all weekend! Quite mild tonight with the insects and frogs going off, roos outside on the grass having a nice feed, quite summer-like.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 27/03/2012 09:30

Geez I went to The Entrance on Saturday - damn hot nights there - I never sleep down there even just a sheet was too hot. Was so glad to get home yesterday evening and feel the drier cooler air and a cool night.

Weather will be typical boring Autumn weather for a while, sometimes warm sometimes cool.

Even if we get warmer days - at least out here the nights will almost always cool nicely now. Fire will be kicked started some time the next few weeks.
Posted by: kizz

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 27/03/2012 10:12

Originally Posted By: Southerly_Buster
We have to pay for the mild summer some time


I would say we have to be compensated for the mild summer. The way I see it is Huey owes me big time.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 27/03/2012 10:19

But we already had an early hot spring - so maybe the cool summer was a catch up for that. smile
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 27/03/2012 10:43

Dear oh dear DaveM, Gosford had 8deg on Saturday morning, 5deg on most of the south coast, its not that warm, you must be a polar bear.
Yes typical boring autumn weather, its like a holiday from the weather, no real heat, cold or storms.
I am glad I can hold off the fire for a few more weeks, rather keep for colder weather latter.

Originally Posted By: DaveM
Geez I went to The Entrance on Saturday - damn hot nights there - I never sleep down there even just a sheet was too hot. Was so glad to get home yesterday evening and feel the drier cooler air and a cool night.
Weather will be typical boring Autumn weather for a while, sometimes warm sometimes cool.
Even if we get warmer days - at least out here the nights will almost always cool nicely now. Fire will be kicked started some time the next few weeks.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 27/03/2012 10:54

Yes but check Norah Head - very much warmer and I stay about 100m from the Ocean, it would have been about 17 but much of the night it was above 20. frown and we CT folk don't much like nights above 15 to 20.) smile
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 27/03/2012 11:23

So much for our 22c today. I don't think it's going to happen. Saw the sun through the autumn mist this morning, but then some thicker stuff moved in, and it's evidently not mist. Seems like the shower-bringing cloud has arrived early. Dressing for summer when it's like this is good... acclimatising for Winter.
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 27/03/2012 12:46

Originally Posted By: ant
Seems like the shower-bringing cloud has arrived early.


Not really, according to this....

Quote:

Forecast for the rest of Tuesday

Summary Max 22 Possible afternoon shower. Chance of any rain: 40% Rainfall amount: 0 to 4 mm
Canberra area

Partly cloudy. The chance of showers from midday. Light winds.

Fire Danger - Low-Moderate

UV Alert from 10:10 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]



Homer
Posted by: Greg Sorenson

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 27/03/2012 12:59

We've had a very brief shower here in Belconnen about an hour ago, though only enough to wet the surface.

Edit: a nice little heavy shower here now.....
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 27/03/2012 13:16

Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: ant
Seems like the shower-bringing cloud has arrived early.


Not really, according to this....

Quote:

Forecast for the rest of Tuesday

Summary Max 22 Possible afternoon shower. Chance of any rain: 40% Rainfall amount: 0 to 4 mm
Canberra area

Partly cloudy. The chance of showers from midday. Light winds.

Fire Danger - Low-Moderate

UV Alert from 10:10 am to 4:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 8 [Very High]



Homer


Ever helpful. Notice the title of that forecast?

Forecast for the rest of Tuesday.

What does that mean? It was issued during Tuesday, and I'm guessing about half way through Tuesday, a forecast update. The original forecast, which was used by the media and was the one I read had the showers as "late showers".

That could possibly mean "late morning', however I generally interpret "late showers" as meaning late in the day. Not 11.20am, which is when I made my post.
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 27/03/2012 13:35

It was issued at 9.57 am.

Homer
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 27/03/2012 20:27

EC is starting to hint at SE winds for Easter with a low in the Tasman, would have been nice to stay warm and sunny, but would not count on it yet.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 29/03/2012 09:06

The US Model on this site seems to have Easterlies and Southerlies for the coast for Easter. The BOM model seems to be moving in the same direction. I think the Easter Indian Summer might have been been cancelled.
Posted by: Canberra's Weather

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 29/03/2012 16:32

I can't believe what I see in the ACT forecast, it's got to be too good to be true!!! MINUS 4 for next Thursday morning the 5th??? MY GOD!!! I checked PRECIS on the BOM site and it has extraordinary minuses for the NSW districts.
Posted by: davidg

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 29/03/2012 16:36

Hahah computer error CW. Off the charts there is absolutely no way that will happen. Penrith is forecast for -1 min and +26 max for thursday morning. This would break the April minimum record for Penrith by 5c! lol. Further proof that none of the forecasts are not even looked at before going out. Hopeless!
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 29/03/2012 16:36

Something has clearly gone wrong in the system somewhere - OCF (at least the version of it I'm seeing) has the min next Thursday at +10.
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 29/03/2012 16:37

Sydney has a 1c min forecast for the same day, so something has gone wrong at BOM's end, THANK GOD!!
Posted by: StormSpottersAu

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 29/03/2012 16:38

I seen those temps and 1 for Syd. I almost fell of my chair! -4 WTF!
Posted by: davidg

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 29/03/2012 16:39

Lol thredbo top station is forecast for a minimum of -7c on thursday morning with a max of +14. We can only dream poke
Posted by: StormSpottersAu

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 29/03/2012 20:40

I notice BOM has revised those temps now - 5:37pm
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 29/03/2012 21:12

Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
Something has clearly gone wrong in the system somewhere - OCF (at least the version of it I'm seeing) has the min next Thursday at +10.


This is probably as good a time as ever to ask the question Blair.
Are these forecasts just computer generated these days, or do mets cast an eye over them before they are issued? I ask for the obvious reason. Something like this should never have been released.

Homer
Posted by: davidg

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 30/03/2012 08:52

Im not sure that its 100% Blair's dept Homer but it would be good if someone could enlighten us.
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 30/03/2012 09:29

Originally Posted By: davidg
Im not sure that its 100% Blair's dept Homer but it would be good if someone could enlighten us.


Yeh, I know that, just thought he may know.

Homer
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 30/03/2012 11:23

You're right it's not my department. As I understand it, the operational process is that the grids (from which the location-specific forecasts are derived) are computer-generated and the forecasters then modify the grids as they seee fit. I think whatever the problem was must have happened between this point and release as something like this would surely have been picked up at the grid-manipulation stage. (My other thought was that one of the models might have gone haywire, but if so this would have shown up in the OCF output I was looking at).
Posted by: slotmachine

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 30/03/2012 11:56

Anyone keen to have a punt on the Easter weekend weather?

BOM model looks dry, GFS wet...
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 30/03/2012 12:06

Thanks Blair. You are a mountain of fascinating and important information, and your input is greatly appreciated.

So, they are computer generated, with a bit of human tweaking when necessary. That makes sense, as it would explain the spelling mistakes and grammatical errors that we sometimes see.
Anway, good to know how it all works.

Cheers, Homer.
Posted by: davidg

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 30/03/2012 13:06

Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
You're right it's not my department. As I understand it, the operational process is that the grids (from which the location-specific forecasts are derived) are computer-generated and the forecasters then modify the grids as they seee fit. I think whatever the problem was must have happened between this point and release as something like this would surely have been picked up at the grid-manipulation stage. (My other thought was that one of the models might have gone haywire, but if so this would have shown up in the OCF output I was looking at).


cheers Thanks Blair, will go a long way to ending the specualtion (including from myself lol) surrounding the new (ish)forecasting system.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 30/03/2012 14:10

Gday everyone! smile

I might be heading to Corryong, Northeast Victoria this Easter weekend for a few days, I haven't been in the Upper Murray region of VIC/NSW during the autumn since April 2010.

Anyone know how the autumn colour is progressing in that part of the world? I know from experience that there is a lot of deciduous foliage in the Upper Murray (especially Corryong, Khancoban and Tumbarumba and even, to a lesser extent, Cabramurra) so autumn is usually a spectacular time of year in the region, but often I'm either too early or too late to catch the best of it poke
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 30/03/2012 14:26

If it's any help asf, I've been heading to the Jindabyne region at Easter for over 20 years and the autumn foilage never fails to let me down. Sometimes we're a bit early, sometimes a bit late, but there is always a spectactular diplay one way or another.

Homer
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 30/03/2012 14:42

Gday Homer! smile

I'm really glad you mentioned Jindabyne, never been there in autumn, winter or spring, only in summer and for daytrips or else just passing through between Merimbula and Corryong but I've noted a fair amount of deciduous foliage in town, I must visit the area outside the summer months lol smile
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 30/03/2012 14:56

Colours coming on noticeably around Bathurst so in another week or so it will only be better - you will see colour for sure in those areas, some trees still green(ish) many turning to varying degrees. Its quite obvious around here - should be similar down that way. Don't forget Bright on the way lovely spot in Autumn.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 30/03/2012 15:51

March for Bathurst will end up only 0.1 over the avge min of 10.3 - so really close there.

Days will be about 2.2 degrees BELOW average (Avge 24.7/Actual about 22.5)

Rain at about 150mm is almost EXACTLY 3 times the average of about 49.7

So a cool wet month.

Last year we were - Min +1.2 (11.6), Max -1.1 (23.6) precip 111mm

So this March is cooler and wetter than last year.
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 30/03/2012 16:29

In Albury the plane trees are starting to change as are the liquidambers.Usually it takes from the middle to the end of April to get the full display here.Could be a good autumn this year with this run of drier weather.I agree with DaveM that Bright would have to have the best colours especially down Delaney Av/Great Alpine Rd.And include Harrietville also
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 30/03/2012 16:57

Currently around here we have everything from green to part coloured to full coloured to leaves almost all gone - depends on variety of tree and area of town.

Many liquidambers well under way, some half some almost full, some to really start. Poplars/Willows well underway, Golden Elms going bald from the top and heading down etc. Some trees hang out until June but most at least started now.

It's a good time of the year around here, cool nights nice days and colour coming on. My favourite season alongside winter.
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 30/03/2012 17:52

Things changing very slowly here in Sydney this year - we haven't had any of those first shockingly cool nights to trigger much. My claret ash hasn't started yet, though some a few streets away are half way changed. My chinese Tallowood, Japanese maple, liquid amber and golden ash..........all still totally green.
I did however see some nicely coloured liquid ambers in Concord the other day.

Homer
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 30/03/2012 20:03

I have to agree with most of what you say DaveM, except our means seem to be a bit different compared to last year. My March mean currently is only 0.1deg cooler than 2011. And after tomorrow's mild day could in fact end right on Par with last year.

Originally Posted By: DaveM
March for Bathurst will end up only 0.1 over the avge min of 10.3 - so really close there.

Days will be about 2.2 degrees BELOW average (Avge 24.7/Actual about 22.5)

Rain at about 150mm is almost EXACTLY 3 times the average of about 49.7

So a cool wet month.

Last year we were - Min +1.2 (11.6), Max -1.1 (23.6) precip 111mm

So this March is cooler and wetter than last year.
Posted by: avalon

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 30/03/2012 21:15

A really good autumn foliage tree that not many people seem to grow is the Ginkgo biloba. they have interesting shaped foliage, they turn reliably and end up a bright ,bright yellow, the leaves will stay yellow when they fall to the ground. They grow pretty big.

I think the best autumn trees in Sydney are the Tupelos in that little park at Turramurra and my all time favourites are the Lombardy Poplars along the Fish River near Tarana, they are always stunning at Easter on a nice bright sunny afternoon. I have cuttings of them growing to plant at Mount Macedon.
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 30/03/2012 22:40

Avalon,

The leaves of the Ginkgo are like a maidenhair fern are they not? Just larger, more tree looking like and deciduous? Just the tree variety though. Is that correct, or am I barking up the wrong (deciduous) tree?

Homer
Posted by: avalon

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 31/03/2012 09:10

Yes Homer. The common name is Maidenhair Tree. They are one of the oldest species of trees. Dinosaur food apparently. If you are going to buy one make sure you get a male. the female plants bare fruit that smells like vomit.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 31/03/2012 09:28

Lines of poplars are stunning in Autumn - a few places around here where they occur. Tumut has a great set of poplars and heaps of other deciduous. Batlow is another pretty autumn place and of course around here and Orange as well.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 01/04/2012 06:40

I think those wanting a warm Easter will get their wish, looking like this heat isn't breaking down for at least a week. BOM have "possible showers" all week but really nothing to worry about imo. Some hope for autumn lovers after that with a stronger change around Easter Monday.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 01/04/2012 21:33

Fingers crossed for the Easter weather pattern in the Upper Murray region of Northeast Victoria and nearby the NSW Southwest Slopes and Snowy Mountains...

Looks like a cold front/trough may cross Southeast Australia next weekend, bringing showers to the region, maybe even a stray end-of-season thunderstorm or two? Should see temps ranging around 14C-28C in Corryong, 7-16C in Cabramurra prior to the front/trough, just have to wait and see smile
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 01/04/2012 22:50

Agreed SB, latest GFS has quite a strong cold change at the end of Easter.
I would still be surprised if April came in much above normal despite a warm start.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 02/04/2012 08:58

Yes it's going to be a very warm start around here - 28 forecast for tomorrow with close to mid 20's most days. That change next weekend and the subsequent positioning of the high should rapidly cool our nights down for next week.

Went to Millthorpe Markets yesterday - awfully hot in the sun with no breeze. Mid 20's and even saw 27 on way home at Vittoria. Got into Bx in time for a bit of a storm and it was 19 on car thermometer. We missed main part of storm but had hail in it too.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 02/04/2012 11:41

26c here tomorrow, and mid 20s all week too. It changes abruptly Sunday apparently, down to "only" 21c. Pretty good. It felt really warm early yesterday, but that might have been the absence of wind. Definitely 30+ and a hat weather. Driving earthmoving equipment is surprisingly heavy work.
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 02/04/2012 15:19

Since my Three Mile Dam camping plans have gone to hell in hand basket the last 2 Easters in a row now, I’m really keen to get up there this year, so I’m praying for some good weather!
Posted by: davidg

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 02/04/2012 15:30

Lol if ACCESS has anything to do with it its going to be a bit wet and windy CS22. Possibly even a bit of snow early next week (i.e. Monday/Tuesday). Hoepfully the forecast improves for your scheduled camping trip. Ive camped at 3 mile in winter before under beautiful clear skies but freezing cold temps and 20cm of fresh snow on the ground. Its a really nice spot.
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 02/04/2012 15:56

Originally Posted By: davidg
Lol if ACCESS has anything to do with it its going to be a bit wet and windy CS22. Possibly even a bit of snow early next week (i.e. Monday/Tuesday).


Excellent.

I'll be at Kalkite again for Easter. Looking forward to the cooler temps and autumnal colours. My equal favourite time of year, with winter.

Homer
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 02/04/2012 16:16

Originally Posted By: davidg
Lol if ACCESS has anything to do with it its going to be a bit wet and windy CS22. Possibly even a bit of snow early next week (i.e. Monday/Tuesday). Hoepfully the forecast improves for your scheduled camping trip. Ive camped at 3 mile in winter before under beautiful clear skies but freezing cold temps and 20cm of fresh snow on the ground. Its a really nice spot.


A little rain/cold is not so much a problem, but too much wind or a lot of rain would make it very unpleasant! I had a very unpleasant experience just this past Feb while camping at Ledge Point around the time that ex tropical cyclone crossed the coast.

Homer, can we expect there to be much Autumn colour yet? I always enjoy the Autumn colours, but thought it might be a bit early for that?
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 02/04/2012 18:04

Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Originally Posted By: davidg
Lol if ACCESS has anything to do with it its going to be a bit wet and windy CS22. Possibly even a bit of snow early next week (i.e. Monday/Tuesday). Hoepfully the forecast improves for your scheduled camping trip. Ive camped at 3 mile in winter before under beautiful clear skies but freezing cold temps and 20cm of fresh snow on the ground. Its a really nice spot.


Homer, can we expect there to be much Autumn colour yet? I always enjoy the Autumn colours, but thought it might be a bit early for that?


TBH, I think it's still a little early but there'll still be coulour there for sure. Hasn't been enough early frosts yet to make it truly sepctacular, but as I said earlier, Easter has never disappointed me yet, one way or another.
I was sent a few photos of Lake Jindabyne a few weeks ago and I have never seen it higher. In fact, I didn't even think it was physically possible to get to the levels in the photos.
They were going to open the gates for 13 days to release a large amount of water. Can't remember if that's EVER happened. I'm hoping it's still really high so I can get my own photos.

Homer
Posted by: Ron W at Walcha

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 06:38

Light frost & ice on cars and 0.8 in Walcha.(2.1 at Salisbury Plains). Golden polplars outside my window, at the peak of their autumn display.
Posted by: kizz

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 08:09

Very thick fog over Sydney harbour this morning.
Looks good as it swirls around the buildings and when glimpses of sun poke through for some strange light effects.

Another Autumnal event.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 09:15

LOL this is a dead set repeat of last year CS22 smile

Yeah CS22 DavidG spot on - I just posted in the Tassie forum about the change. Mate just GO, it's a great place any time but it's really magic if it actually snows a bit.

This time you HAVE to go - no woosing out this time smile

You will have a great time up there, the whole area is great, headwaters of the mighty Eucumbene, Tumut and Murrumbidgee Rivers, old Gold fields, deep/steep valleys, snow gums, mate just do it. smile I wish I was going there.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 09:19

Autumn colours really kicking in around here - you will see plenty of colour as you head south Homer & CS22. smile Poplars looking great just like Ron said. Claret Ash, elms/oaks etc all on the way.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 09:29

27c forecast here today, and then lots of 25s. We have something cold arriving Saturday night-ish by the looks of it... I hope that this event, like so many before it, slows down and arrives later! Monday, perhaps. They're really lowering the forecast temperatures with this cool-down, and upping the wind. Looks like being thoroughly foul.

The ornamental pears around Canberra are all quite yellow and starting to shed, but my birches have barely noticed the season change yet, I'm not getting the low overnight temperatures, it's been mild up my way, but with very heavy overnight dews.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 09:32

Ant same here - the Silver Birch leaves just sort of shrivelling and falling off without any great yellowing at my place. But most other species now really getting into it.

eg Claret ashes half maroon & half green - stunning.
Posted by: davidg

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 09:59

Originally Posted By: DaveM
LOL this is a dead set repeat of last year CS22 smile

Yeah CS22 DavidG spot on - I just posted in the Tassie forum about the change. Mate just GO, it's a great place any time but it's really magic if it actually snows a bit.

This time you HAVE to go - no woosing out this time smile

You will have a great time up there, the whole area is great, headwaters of the mighty Eucumbene, Tumut and Murrumbidgee Rivers, old Gold fields, deep/steep valleys, snow gums, mate just do it. smile I wish I was going there.


Couldnt agree more. Spent a rained out day in Winter just driving around checking out the various huts etc. a couple of years ago, even if it does rain (so long as its not torrential) its still a fun place to explore. Obviously clear blue skies is what we all hope for but the area is so diverse there's plenty to do in all weather conditions. I reckon wait until thursday to make the final descicion weatherwise.

Oh yeah DaveM, my mate from work had an excellent time around Cradle Mountain. A couple of small patches of snow remained in sheltered spots up until tuesday/wednesday last week which he was quite pleased to experience (he still hasnt seen snow proper! Unthinkable i know). From all reports (and FB pics) its an amazing place to visit. Ive already started planning my own trip down there for next year.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 10:15

Hey DG - yeah Cradle is the best, it's even better the more you walk the various tracks in the area. I love getting up near Kitchen Hut where you see Barn Bluff come into view and the view from Marions down into Crater Lake which would also be starting to show the turning of Fagus (Deciduous Beech) Australia's only native deciduous. It only grows in alpine areas of Tas.

The best view is from the top of the Cradle peak but it's a long day doing that. Hansesns peak and the Dove Lake walk are also great.

You better get your mate to some real hands on snow smile Quick trip to Oberon perhaps one snowy weekend.
Posted by: avalon

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 10:16

Same thing here with the Silver Birch. Contrary to popular belief they dont like lots of water or rain and they definitely dont like humid climates. They can cope with relatively low rainfall and poor drainage is the kiss of death.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 11:05

That may explain why I lost one last year it was after several very wet months (and one tree took off in spring, the other did nothing and we realized it had died. It was in the lowest and wettest part of the yard. Thanks Avalon - reckon you've solved my query.
Posted by: PeterB

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 11:39

Originally Posted By: Ron W at Walcha
Light frost & ice on cars and 0.8 in Walcha.(2.1 at Salisbury Plains). Golden polplars outside my window, at the peak of their autumn display.

Same with the trees in Armidale - very spectacular autumn colours.
Min at the Armidale city weather station this morning was 3.1C, the lowest so far this year.
-1.9C on the grass meaning there may have been a very light frost.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 11:40

Originally Posted By: DaveM
Ant same here - the Silver Birch leaves just sort of shrivelling and falling off without any great yellowing at my place. But most other species now really getting into it.

eg Claret ashes half maroon & half green - stunning.


The pears around the CBR airport are almost through their autumn thing, bright yellow. And anything that turns red is doing so! Looking out over eastern Canberra though, I can see poplars just starting to tinge yellow at the top, but there's still more green than yellows and reds at this stage. Autumn is weird, again. Some trees are going for it, others haven't even really started, and there's no real fallen leaf action yet.

My birches are just ignoring it. During the cold stuff in Jan/Feb they started up, then stopped as it warmed, and now they're just hanging, nothing's really falling off, unless the parrots nip it off (which they're doing). Ditto the Chinese Elms, still very green and nothing's falling barring parrot vandalism.

But down near the dam, there's a maple-y thing that's gone bright red.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 11:43

Originally Posted By: avalon
Same thing here with the Silver Birch. Contrary to popular belief they dont like lots of water or rain and they definitely dont like humid climates. They can cope with relatively low rainfall and poor drainage is the kiss of death.


They are very tough trees. But! The biggest silver birch I've ever seen is a monster at my parents' place, it self-sowed itself some years back, quickly found the semi-legal septic tank installed for the nursery staff toilet, and went ballistic. It dwarfs every other tree around the place, most much older than it. The trunk is massive. Clearly it quite likes the septic tank.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 12:16

A lot of trees started around here in early Feb - then it got wet and much of the colour change slowed quite a lot. As it dried out it started up again - now it's well underway althought there is lots of variation as to the extent from place to place. To anyone driving through here though it's clearly autumn.
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 13:22

Originally Posted By: davidg
Originally Posted By: DaveM
LOL this is a dead set repeat of last year CS22 smile

Yeah CS22 DavidG spot on - I just posted in the Tassie forum about the change. Mate just GO, it's a great place any time but it's really magic if it actually snows a bit.

This time you HAVE to go - no woosing out this time smile

You will have a great time up there, the whole area is great, headwaters of the mighty Eucumbene, Tumut and Murrumbidgee Rivers, old Gold fields, deep/steep valleys, snow gums, mate just do it. smile I wish I was going there.


Couldnt agree more. Spent a rained out day in Winter just driving around checking out the various huts etc. a couple of years ago, even if it does rain (so long as its not torrential) its still a fun place to explore. Obviously clear blue skies is what we all hope for but the area is so diverse there's plenty to do in all weather conditions. I reckon wait until thursday to make the final descicion weatherwise.

Oh yeah DaveM, my mate from work had an excellent time around Cradle Mountain. A couple of small patches of snow remained in sheltered spots up until tuesday/wednesday last week which he was quite pleased to experience (he still hasnt seen snow proper! Unthinkable i know). From all reports (and FB pics) its an amazing place to visit. Ive already started planning my own trip down there for next year.


Yes the pressure is on to go, lol! Are there some good sheltered spots amongst the trees up there? Or are the sites mostly exposed, Davidg?
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 14:56

Yep you can easliy camp in amongst the snow gums just near the dam. Because it's a dam it's obviously in a valley situation and is relatively sheltered from Southerly winds. It's truly a lovely spot - go on you can do it this time smile

If all else fails escape to the pub in Adaminaby or the Snowy Mountains Motel (which we used to manage for a while)
Posted by: stormymick

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 15:33

ant keep an eye out over the airport we have a drama about unfold
Posted by: davidg

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 15:46

Hey CS22, what DaveM said haha. I have a few pics from mine and AaronD's trip down there a couple of years ago. Ill PM you some pics. Definately going camping down there again this year. Had an awesome multiday snowshoeing trek across the main range late last june so really looking forward to heading out again, even if it is just some lazy camping in the snowgums.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 16:37

If people realised how much of a buzz snow camping can be (properly equipped of course) they would never do anything else. My absolute best walks in Tassie and the Snowies were in VERY snowy conditions - just magic!!

Snow is usually drier than rain for walking - i'd prefer it any time. Although it can make it hard to find a track when fresh snow falls and bends scrub over the track etc. Tests the skills a bit but great fun.

DG how durable do you find the snow shoes? I've heard mixed reports from some people?
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 16:45

Snowshoes are great things, I hope they get cheaper here.

Missed Stormymick's drama, damn it. I'm on the wrong side of the building...
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 17:05

What was it? Very intriguing.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 21:27

I'm waiting to find out! something aviation-related. I hope he wasn't crashing and that was his last communication with the world!

Bloody forecast for the long weekend is flip-flopping all over the place. Not looking forward to this nasty cold windy blast. It would be good if it could hold off til Tuesday, but it won't.

It's stinking hot tonight, still above 20c inside with the windows open. NO wind, and the air must be humid as while I was pegging the clothes out an hour ago, I could see fat contrails above and hear the jets way above. I can still hear one now, and these are not planes visiting canberra.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2012 23:41

Looks like it'll get cold enough for snow above 1800m in the Snowy Mountains on Monday into Tuesday... certainly one intense cold front set to hit SE Australia this Easter weekend! grin
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 04/04/2012 08:55

Well this morning EC, GFS & Access all quite differetn to each other - so take your pick re next Monday/Tuesday. I'm hoping GFS is whacko. Access looks great.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 04/04/2012 10:33

This sucks, now the forecast has Friday as the only warm day, with Saturday and Sunday down in the lowest 20s with "clearing showers" both days. Then the COLD comes Monday. Ugh.

It would have been wonderful to retain this gorgeous warm weather all Easter. This is just about perfect weather, if it rained every night it would be completely perfect.
Posted by: Ron W at Walcha

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 04/04/2012 11:06

April certainly has delivered autumn to the southern end of the NT's at least with overnight mins. Our nearest aws at Woolbrook has an average min of 4.0 for the first 4 days of April. Walcha typically is 1-2 degrees lower which concurs with my obs.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 04/04/2012 11:24

Sure is a frosty spot up there Ron.
Posted by: davidg

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 04/04/2012 11:39

Originally Posted By: ant
This sucks, now the forecast has Friday as the only warm day, with Saturday and Sunday down in the lowest 20s with "clearing showers" both days. Then the COLD comes Monday. Ugh.

It would have been wonderful to retain this gorgeous warm weather all Easter. This is just about perfect weather, if it rained every night it would be completely perfect.


Ah sucks Ant. Not to rub it in but heres the forecast for Penruff so far. Take off 1-2 degrees for Glenbrook which is where i will be spending the majority of the weekend at my folks.

Friday: 23 sunny
Saturday: 22 sunny

Having said that id take 16 and sunny over 25 and raining any day of the week so its not all bad. Should be nice and fresh in the mornings as well.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 04/04/2012 12:29

Yeah, I figure the evil cold will take a day or so longer to get to you, and perhaps it'll be a more southerly event so just brush you guys. I notice when the COLD reaches us, there's no rain. So it's double crap.

I've really got to get down the hill and start busting up that wood or I'll have no heating.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 04/04/2012 15:01

Well I for one am looking forward to some cooler weather now after this lengthy Indian Summer. Even some cool southerly winds would be a change, which you can get most of the time at the height of summer and should be par for the course in April. Looks like a typical April pattern next week with the "squished" high in the southern Tasman directing cool SE winds onto the NSW coast.

Anyhow, a SE'ly (rather than SW'ly) change might be the best compromise for ant on the tablelands and us in the subtropics.
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 04/04/2012 19:39

Bathurst and here had the warmest April day in since 2005 today.
23.3 here and 28.? in Bathurst.

I am enjoying the last bit of warmth, better now than latter.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 04/04/2012 22:24

Disgusted about this. Now, we have the cooling from Saturday, some cheap barely-there rain, and heaps of cold.

This evening was rather special, got out of work 5.30pm and the air was thick and coastal, down in Canberra! Salty, humid, with that sea fuzz air making things in the distance all milky. I figure there's some old smoke from a coastal burn in it, and plenty of salt sea air. Another lovely-lit sunset. I want more of this!
Posted by: ColdsnapIII

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 05/04/2012 21:42

The last four days here from memory have been 10C-25C (today), 10C-24C, 16C-23C and 7C-21C, with heaps of sunshine. Around 26C expected here tomorrow. Beautiful calm and clear evening out there with the near-to-full moon out and a coolish 13C currently.

Easter here looks like minimums around 6C-8C and maximums 16C on Saturday dropping to 12C by Monday. Not much rain forecast, just a shower or two about over the period. Really it would be nice to see more rain in the outlook as we have had a problem here in recent years with April being very dry compared to the long term average. The soil moisture is excellent after a solid March and a big rain event at the end of February but in recent years this has usually been the time when the weather patterns start to block with huge highs. We usually see the odd cut off rain event at this time of year. Hopefully one will come later in the month.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I notice earlier in this thread there was discussion as to what climate conditions lead to good autumn colour. The way I have always understood it the following factors are important.

1. Most importantly, a cool and moist temperate four season climate where deciduous trees thrive. Autumn deciduous trees are not adapted to sub tropical climates and most won't grow there. These kind of trees also generally require deep, moist and well drained soil. The more diverse the range of deciduous trees that can grow in a place, the better the autumn display, i.e. a wider range of tones and hues.

2. Good soil moisture over summer and continuing into Autumn. Trees need to be as healthy as possible. Summer drought leads to stressed trees with sparser leaf cover that drop leaves early before changing colour. Places that have excessively hot and dry summers will never have good autumn displays. Most of the western and central inland NSW areas (west of the ranges and tablelands) and low lying parts of northern VIC don't fare well, they have scorching dry summers.

Also water logging is even more damaging than drought. In places where it is very wet in summer and poor drainage, deciduous trees are likely to suffer severe leaf drop. This happened here to a degree last summer after we had record breaking rainfall.

2. A higher latitude location where daylight hours drop sharply from long summer days to short winter nights. Autumn is the transition period where these day length changes occur at the fastest rate. This is the main cue for deciduous trees to shut off chlorophyll production hence revealing autumn colour.

3. Heaps of sun over summer and especially the first half of autumn. Sunlight helps produce sugars in the leaves which are a vital component of the production of the pigments that colour autumn leaves. Places that have predominantly cloudy summers and autumns have poorer autumn colour displays, most of the leaves will turn yellow to brown. In particular the reds, scarlets and flame colours never develop properly if you don't get a high number of sun hours at this time.

4. A high contrast between summer temperatures and autumn temperatures. Temperatures need to drop off relatively quickly over the months of March-May, especially minimum temps.

5. Cool nights in general. This is another reason why predominantly cloudy and humid places do not develop good autumn colour.

6. Urban heat island effect destroys autumn colour. Inner Melbourne has high minimums for too long into Autumn thanks to artificial heat and you will notice the autumn colour never develops properly. Go about 5km inland and out of the CBD and surrounds and almost like magic autumn colour improves.

We have quite a bit of autumn colour atm. It usually reaches a peak in late April to Early May. Where I am there are near to perfect conditions for deciduous trees and autumn displays and there are so many deciduous trees planted in the local towns and varied species, especially on Mount Macedon itself that it is often a riot of colour.

Dandenongs, Bright, Canberra, Adelaide Hills, Blue mountains are the other areas renowned for autumn colour. All have near perfect conditions for autumn display.




Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 05/04/2012 22:16

Thanks for the very thorough response Coldsnap. Sydney fails most, if not all the criteria above- subtropical, low latitude, peak cloudiness in Feb/March, a lingering warm season, warm overnight temps and a bad UHI. With these limitations, it's a wonder we see any colour at all in Sydney. In my suburb, we have a few decent liquidambers that put on a display, but cool climate poplars (why on earth are they planted in Sydney anyway?) simply go brown and drop.

Fortunately we have the Blue Mountains and Southern Highlands on our doorstep if we want our autumn fix. Perhaps if we get a bit of cool after this Indian Summer we'll see a cracking display around Anzac Day.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 05/04/2012 23:51

We're getting some colour here, but it's not as though the switch has been flicked yet. Maybe the cool overnight temperatures with this cool-down will do it. I'm glad to see the big cold has been downgraded, with 20c being the lowest daytime forecast temperature. And bugger-all rain, which is not good.
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/04/2012 10:46

Originally Posted By: Southerly_Buster
but cool climate poplars (why on earth are they planted in Sydney anyway?) simply go brown and drop.


The poplars have been puzzling me this autumn, up here they have been doing exactly that, just going brown and drop. But not everywhere, some places are yellow other places terrible. I am tending to think its too much rain over Feb/March that has made them loose their colour where soils hold more moisture. I think they like a dry end to summer not a wet one.
Poplars are not cold climate trees anyway, they are from a hot southern Mediterranean climate where they want a hot dry summer which has been badly lacking this year.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/04/2012 11:05

The Meadow Flat poplars are usually good. I thought these poplars/aspen were native to western Europe rather than the southern Med, but I'm no greenthumb. The southern Med is a dry subtropical climate (think Canary Island Date Palms, which DO grow well in Sydney and even Melbourne).

This April is looking rather grim, the switch has been flicked back to hot and dry for the moment- more heat is building at the end of next week, though not as extreme.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/04/2012 11:57

I drove down to Canberra the other day and you can tell that Autumn has arrived on the tablelands. Lots of beautiful bringht yellow poplars along Rememberance Drive and a bit of red and orange in Canberra, although it's still early days.

There is no sense of change of seasons on the coast yet, apart from more sunshine.
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/04/2012 15:32

Originally Posted By: Southerly_Buster
This April is looking rather grim, the switch has been flicked back to hot and dry for the moment- more heat is building at the end of next week, though not as extreme.


Looks perfect to me, a mild-warm dry settled autumn (April-May) is exactly what we need ahead of an Antarctic winter to start in June. I will be perfectly happy not to see any rain until June, as the air gets drier and cooler some light frosts will still start to form on the tablelands, I think that even next week is not impossible with any showers staying near the coast. Certainly no great heat building next week, but the highs are definitely showing signs of moving north and forming a ridge at our latitudes until winter, this looks just perfect to me. We may have to take a slight + anomaly until winter, but we need to take it now to ensure a good winter.
Posted by: aslaws

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/04/2012 18:11

Originally Posted By: PeterDuke
Originally Posted By: Southerly_Buster
This April is looking rather grim, the switch has been flicked back to hot and dry for the moment- more heat is building at the end of next week, though not as extreme.


Looks perfect to me, a mild-warm dry settled autumn (April-May) is exactly what we need ahead of an Antarctic winter to start in June. I will be perfectly happy not to see any rain until June, as the air gets drier and cooler some light frosts will still start to form on the tablelands, I think that even next week is not impossible with any showers staying near the coast. Certainly no great heat building next week, but the highs are definitely showing signs of moving north and forming a ridge at our latitudes until winter, this looks just perfect to me. We may have to take a slight + anomaly until winter, but we need to take it now to ensure a good winter.


I agree PD - this dry weather is just what we need after the recent wet summer. Those single figure minimums forecast for next week should stir up the autumn colours nicely. I like the position of the high south of WA on a few of the model runs.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/04/2012 21:13

I'm in Corryong, Northeast Victoria atm... I've slipped across the Border into NSW twice so far this Easter period... late yesterday in Albury for dinner and shopping, and this arvo to Khancoban for afternoon tea.

A fair bit of autumn colour in Khancoban btw, especially down by Khancoban Pondage... was truly magical when the winds whipped up and leaves fell down lol grin
Posted by: coalfire

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 07/04/2012 07:09

The Poplars here near the bridge at the end of Coalbrook Street are not as good as usual. Too warm at the present time.
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 07/04/2012 09:52

Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak
I'm in Corryong, Northeast Victoria atm... I've slipped across the Border into NSW twice so far this Easter period... late yesterday in Albury for dinner and shopping, and this arvo to Khancoban for afternoon tea.

A fair bit of autumn colour in Khancoban btw, especially down by Khancoban Pondage... was truly magical when the winds whipped up and leaves fell down lol grin
. Yeah the trees in Khancoban can put on a really good display especially the along the main road through town.If you have some time to kill why not take a 2hr very scenic drive up the alpine way to Thredbo.
Posted by: avalon

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 07/04/2012 10:15

In regard to the Poplars going brown and dropping leaves instead of colouring nicely, it is often attributable to Poplar Leaf Rust, a fungal problem that becomes very evident when you have a large number of trees in the one area, when you get high humidity with temps around 20C to 25C regularly and when previous winter temperatures have not been been consistently cold enough to kill the over-wintering fungal spores.
Sounds like the CTs have been getting exactly the right conditions favouring Poplar Leaf Rust.You had better hope for a couple of really cold winters to knock the fungus back a bit or you could end up with a real problem.

We suffer from that Rust problem here in Victoria, that is why autumn displays from Poplars down here are pretty ordinary by comparison to say Canberra or Bathurst. Our winter temperatures are not cold enough to stop the fungus from proliferating. The garden that i work in here in Macedon is famous for its very long avenue of Lombardy Poplars that was planted 100 years ago. They are unfortunately rust affected and they dont really colour. We need a couple of very frosty winters, unlikely i would think

The genus Populus is found naturally in many areas of the world. North America/Canada, Europe, the Mediteranean area and also throughout Asia, mostly in China. They are adapted to a wide range of climates, from quite warm to freezingly cold!

The Lombardy Poplar which most people commonly refer to when speaking of Poplars is not a species in itself, it is male clone from a sport that occurred on a single specimen of the Common European Black Poplar, (Populus nigra) in the Lombardia province in Italy in the 1800s. It has since spread across the globe and can only be propagated by vegetative means, ie, cuttings, it does not seed.
Posted by: Cloudz

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 07/04/2012 11:04

I grew up in Canberra,and have so many child hood memories tied up in the poplar trees in our front yard - 85 Flinders way, it's a vet surgery now, I'm told.

When Mum was REALLY cranky, I used to climb to the top of the poplar trees, and wait, watchng her stamping and steaming below me, knowing I was safe up there till she calmed down wink !

And Dad, raking the leaves in piles, to burn them off (!) while pretending to be cross when we, kids jumped in the piles.

I'm thinking of returning to the world of daffodils, tulips & spring blossoms (as per Italian Sentinel's last pics), and poplar trees. smile please keep them healthy till I can get back there!
Happy Easter ! smile
Posted by: Jon77

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 07/04/2012 20:56

Originally Posted By: PeterDuke
Originally Posted By: Southerly_Buster
This April is looking rather grim, the switch has been flicked back to hot and dry for the moment- more heat is building at the end of next week, though not as extreme.


Looks perfect to me, a mild-warm dry settled autumn (April-May) is exactly what we need ahead of an Antarctic winter to start in June. I will be perfectly happy not to see any rain until June, as the air gets drier and cooler some light frosts will still start to form on the tablelands, I think that even next week is not impossible with any showers staying near the coast. Certainly no great heat building next week, but the highs are definitely showing signs of moving north and forming a ridge at our latitudes until winter, this looks just perfect to me. We may have to take a slight + anomaly until winter, but we need to take it now to ensure a good winter.


Not sure I agree with stating that warmer weather now will help a cold winter. Surely that is implying that there is a quota on a certain synoptic state and that weather has some kind of memory. I often hear people state that the weather will even itself out or compensate, and I can understand that in a way, but I don't think it is true and I don't believe in that.

Of course when you look back through history you can look for evidence for set ups that can make a cold winter more likely, for instance perhaps a colder than normal summer has lead to a greater frequency of colder winters? Searching for past examples is perhaps the best way, but then pattern matching is also inexact and never that straightforward.

But to say that we can 'use up' a certain synoptic condition just doesn't work for me. Personally I would have been more confident of a colder winter if below average conditions had persisted from summer in to autumn.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 07/04/2012 22:03

Originally Posted By: Cloudz
I grew up in Canberra,and have so many child hood memories tied up in the poplar trees in our front yard - 85 Flinders way, it's a vet surgery now, I'm told.


I used to have hockey practice at the oval on Flinders way, winter nights the air was like a knife in your lungs, and I do remember all those poplars, and knee-deep leaves.

As I'd hoped, the cold whatever-it-is has slowed waaaay down, and I don't think we're getting much but cold and a lick of cloud. And it doesn't arrive until Monday anyway. Tuesday night is looking nasty, especially if you're a tomato plant (or a nasturtium).
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 07/04/2012 22:13

Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Yeah the trees in Khancoban can put on a really good display especially the along the main road through town.If you have some time to kill why not take a 2hr very scenic drive up the alpine way to Thredbo.


I advised a workmate to do just that, they're heading down to the mountains east of Melbourne, and had actually never done the Thredbo/Khancoban road. This is the time of year to do it! So they did. The view back from that lookout, up at the western face of the range, it's a cracker. And you can drive past the Tom Groggin track exit, and shake your head.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 07/04/2012 22:49

Originally Posted By: ant
Originally Posted By: Cloudz
I grew up in Canberra,and have so many child hood memories tied up in the poplar trees in our front yard - 85 Flinders way, it's a vet surgery now, I'm told.


I used to have hockey practice at the oval on Flinders way, winter nights the air was like a knife in your lungs, and I do remember all those poplars, and knee-deep leaves.

As I'd hoped, the cold whatever-it-is has slowed waaaay down, and I don't think we're getting much but cold and a lick of cloud. And it doesn't arrive until Monday anyway. Tuesday night is looking nasty, especially if you're a tomato plant (or a nasturtium).


Same here in Corryong, Northeast Victoria... winter nights in the Upper Murray region have been known dip to around -5C and the grass and other exposed surfaces can be coated in an incredible frost, as I've seen in June 2006 and again in July 2009 eek a sight that I found incredibly beatiful though and would love to see again! smile
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 07/04/2012 22:56

Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak
I'm in Corryong, Northeast Victoria atm... I've slipped across the Border into NSW twice so far this Easter period... late yesterday in Albury for dinner and shopping, and this arvo to Khancoban for afternoon tea.

A fair bit of autumn colour in Khancoban btw, especially down by Khancoban Pondage... was truly magical when the winds whipped up and leaves fell down lol grin
. Yeah the trees in Khancoban can put on a really good display especially the along the main road through town.If you have some time to kill why not take a 2hr very scenic drive up the alpine way to Thredbo.


Really sad... hardly much chance of me being able to travel into the Koscuiszko National Park to Thredbo, I really would love to do that in the autumn some day frown
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 07:20

Originally Posted By: Jon77
... Not sure I agree with stating that warmer weather now will help a cold winter. Surely that is implying that there is a quota on a certain synoptic state and that weather has some kind of memory. I often hear people state that the weather will even itself out or compensate, and I can understand that in a way, but I don't think it is true and I don't believe in that...


I don't think there's much of a relationship between temperature anomolies between seasons. In the medium to long term, the average reasserts itself. I had a very quick look at some stats for maximum temperatures for Bankstown. 1998 had a hot summer followed by a cold winter. 1996 and 2000 had a cool summer followed by an average winter, 1989 had a cool summer followed by a cool winter.

In our part of the country Westerlies tend to bring hot weather in summer and cold in winter; the opposite applies to Easterlies. So if there is any relationship between these synoptic situations across seasons (e.g. belt of high pressure further to the South than usual in summer correlates with similar situation the following winter) then the relationship would be that we 'pay' for a cool summer with a warm winter, but I don't think that this happens (can't prove / disprove).
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 08:33

Originally Posted By: ant
Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Yeah the trees in Khancoban can put on a really good display especially the along the main road through town.If you have some time to kill why not take a 2hr very scenic drive up the alpine way to Thredbo.


I advised a workmate to do just that, they're heading down to the mountains east of Melbourne, and had actually never done the Thredbo/Khancoban road. This is the time of year to do it! So they did. The view back from that lookout, up at the western face of the range, it's a cracker. And you can drive past the Tom Groggin track exit, and shake your head.
Ant are you referring to the scammells spur lookout(best veiw of the western side of the main range especially when snow covered)?Another nice spot would be the Geehi river crossing(good place to camp).
Posted by: aslaws

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 12:30

Looking at the models Tuesday will be a pretty cold day along the Southern & Central Ranges for mid April. Certainly some pretty cold 500 temps close by.
OCF says <13C max for Katoomba but could be colder depending on what pans out.
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 13:21

Yes, will be cool on Tuesday and looking foreword to it. Could be nearly as cool in the BM as up here since the wind should have a bit of a SSE kick to it. I would go for a max of 11 for here, but could have been 9 or 10 had the wind had a slight SW kick to it.
BM may sneak in a shower that I will miss out on.

PS I think that yesterday 7th April would have been my last 20deg day until late September, normally always occurs around the start of April/end March
Posted by: Storm Hunter

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 13:37

A few cells popping up to my NW out Gulgong area,look to be moving down into the Hunter,I think they will intencify too.
Posted by: Storm Hunter

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 16:42

Cells moving down into the Hunter before long,I think I might get a heavy shower here later.
Posted by: Marts

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 16:48

Looking very stormy to my west atm. Radar is showing activity to the west as well. Might get a shower or even a rumble out of this lot soon.
Posted by: mkeene(pingtang)

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 17:12

the clueless f heads at the bureau haven't even mentioned a possible thunderstorm for sydney this evening. Im glad I dont work with those pack of bum brains.
Posted by: Stormyweather

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 17:13

It is quite dark here now - a few ominous rumbles - and ... just then - the first CRACK of thunder grin
Posted by: Stormyweather

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 17:35

and now some good Heavy rain ....
Posted by: Rainbow Spirit

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 18:01

Lots of lightning and constant thunder over the last half an hour, some light rain falling at the moment. Most of the local action will miss us to the north.
Posted by: Storm Hunter

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 18:26

Cells bomming all around me here, been a few close CG's to.heaviest area just north of me in cessnock,I am only getting light rain here but big drops so far,looks to be more developing to my west, so a few more booms later for the Hunter.Very lightning active storms, flashing every second.
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 18:27

looking good for a flash and 5 spots of rain here!
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 18:30

More than a few flashes here, and some moderate rain just now. That's two Sundays, two epic fails from the BOM.

PS CS22- does this mean you wimped out on Three Mile Dam again?! I'll be in the Monaro next weekend, looking forward to some nice autumn conditions. Looking perfect at this stage.
Posted by: lizzie

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 18:41

Quite a solid cell...its a beauty!!
Very lightning active, though mostly CCs
Small hail too....decent structure....

Lovely!!!
Posted by: Perfect Storm

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 18:41

Heavy rain and constant flashes of lightning left right and centre here in Auburn. Bit hairy standing outside with an umbrella trying to place a chain on the gate up though.

Love it! been a while since I haven't missed out on a good storm. grin
Posted by: Marts

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 18:43

Nice storm moving through here atm. The ood flange as well. Bring it on.
Posted by: meso-mal

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 18:55

I was outside an hour ago watching the awesome lightning show off the cell to the NE at Glenorie. At the moment, there's nice heavy rain here in Stanhope Gardens for the last 20mins or so. On the last radar loop, it looked like I was going straight down the v-notch smile
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 18:56

Originally Posted By: Southerly_Buster
More than a few flashes here, and some moderate rain just now. That's two Sundays, two epic fails from the BOM.

PS CS22- does this mean you wimped out on Three Mile Dam again?! I'll be in the Monaro next weekend, looking forward to some nice autumn conditions. Looking perfect at this stage.





Sadly my other half didn't like the sound of 60km/h winds BOM had forecast for the Friday night, so yes we wimped out again! However, we might take the 2 days after Anzac day off to head down there, and if not then then the long weekend in June. I'm going to get there one way or another!!

Well my flash has turned into a light show with loud thunder and big drops!! smile
Posted by: Blair

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 18:57

Lots of heavy rain and lightning here in Beresfield looks like a disco club with the constant flashing of lighting =D
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 19:05

Just had a new experience here....we largely missed the decent storm that hit the hunter...going through a gap and just getting some nice rain. Still plenty of thunder and lightning about. That had settled down for a while about 10 minutes since we have had any close flashes or thunder. Then i saw a flash and thought nothing of it as there is still a great cell well to the north, but then about 5-6 seconds later we had the most incredible clap of thunder. It was so sharp it had to be a CG. I have been within metres of flangs many times over many years but this was just a massive clap of thunder, bigger than being within a second of a flang!! I mean the rain had stopped and the storm was gone....so what the!!?? I wish I had seen it. Is there such a thing as a super bolt? coz I think I just felt the aftermath. Im glad it wasnt closer, I think it would have blown the windows out. Amazing!
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 19:06

60 km/h winds are standard in the Alps at any time of the year I'm afraid, so if your partner is not prepared to take a little of that then I suggest you might have to do on the spur of the moment- i.e. when a fat high is sitting over, as it looks like doing next weekend. As we get closer to winter of course the risk of high winds increases.

Anyway, still a good light show here and rumbling away. The centre of activity is slowly edging northward though, so probably will be all over in a couple of hours.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 19:11

Gringos it could've been a positive or 'out of the blue' strike, which is a lightning bolt away from the main part of the storm.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 19:17

Yeah certainly a possibility.....I have seen clear air strikes, but this one was like a clear airer that touched down miles from the storm. Might call it a CAG, cloud to air to ground. Thanks for throwing out some ideas
Posted by: Yowie

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 19:19

Not having much in the way of deciduous trees in and around Wollongong when I was growing up, one of my fondest childhood memories was the end of a boring Autumn school holiday to Canberra (Parliament house, bike ride around the lake, national art gallery, etc. All very boring to a 10 yo and an 8 yo girl!). On the way home, we stopped in Queanbeyan and whilst the parents did whatever parents do when the kids need to run off some energy, my Sis & I took great delight in diving into the giant piles of leaves in the park, having leaf fights and otherwise just rustling around in leaves. Thoughts of what small eight-legged life might have also been living in those leaf piles didn't occur to us.

Our parents don't remember those leaf piles, but my sister & I still do!.
Posted by: Storm Hunter

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 19:21

Had the big boom here too GringosRain.
Posted by: Yowie

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 19:21

A nice black-centred blob on the radar out near Oatley!
Posted by: Perfect Storm

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 19:23

Yeah, Friend out near that way mentioned "hailing like crazy" on his Facebook status.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 19:23

Just had a brief burst of marble sized hail here. Looks like the core just missed to the east.
Posted by: Marts

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 19:28

Some very nice cells in the basin atm. Still getting lightning and rumbles here atm. Still more to come going by the radar.
Posted by: davidm

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 19:29

Wow, been a great light show here, camera placement has been my mortal enemy tonight unfortunately.


1944-001 by davebassjunkie, on Flickr
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 19:35

I drove through a short, sharp downpour in the Queens Park area (Sydney Eastern Suburbs) around 7:00pm, with big drops. Lots of thunder and lightning. Saw a CG near North Sydney. Just as I'm typing this saw / heard a very loud flash / bang (Artarmon). Thunder and lightning seems to be picking up again. Steady light rain now, but the Radar shows heavier stuff on the way.

Maybe this is the last summer storm.
Posted by: chapo

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 19:38

it seems these storms are by passing campbelltown
Posted by: Quagmelson

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 19:41

Me and the missus or the missus and I were watching Con Air and it seemed like an awful lot of planes were going over, with 4cast of cloudy and 10% chance of 0mm i was hardly contemplating any last encore of another dismal storm season. So it was with great surprise that i opened the front door rubbed my eyes and realised it was infact thunder and copious amounts of it. I was like a bull ant whos nest had just been roughed up, i didnt know what to do but run around in circles, i finally scrambled together my laptop and 4beers and beelined it to the lookout, mesomal im talking the paterson reserve lookout on glover av just south of stanhope gardens! I set up shop and was greeted to 360' lightning mostly cc at this stage and nothing too close, there was a lull of about 30mins where i briefly thought about going home but the odd bolt to the nw kept me entertained, these bolts rapidly increased and i realised they had been hidden by heavy rain. Within 15mins i was standing in this gazebo at the lookout with torrential rain and violent gusts with bolts hitting within 100mtrs, i was standing on the table to avoid getting saturated by the wind blown rain, and wandering if the gazebo would act as some kind of faraday cage if to be struck by lightning which was frighteningly close and frequent. This lastef for a good 45mins b4 abating when i made a dash of 200mtrs back to the car, it reintensified driving home though, with more car shaking gusts and close bolts, i have 47mm in the gauge at home, dont know what time frame but prob under an hour, radar shows orange and red line moving over about 5-6 frames, its certainly in the top3 most scary storms ive been stuck out in and early april delivers another surprise, now that i havent been fried im so happy i experienced that! Notbad for cloudy but fine! I meen come on BOM i want to believe in you guys, i really do!! I dont know if i could be bothered going back to Con Air, its kind of a downer after that, plus the missus left a window open upstairs and its not pretty!
Posted by: Marts

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 19:43

The sky is like a strobe light to the south atm. Constant rumbles and light rain here. Thunder is getting louder!
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 19:50

Detailed severe thunderstorm warning issued for Sydney for a cell near Liverpool:

DETAILED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for DAMAGING WIND, LARGE HAILSTONES and HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in parts of the
Sydney Metropolitan area.
=================

Issued at 7:40 pm Sunday, 8 April 2012.


The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 7:40 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Holsworthy and Liverpool. These thunderstorms are moving towards the southeast. They are forecast to affect Bundeena, Cronulla, Menai and Padstow by 8:10 pm.


Damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding are likely.
Posted by: Ocean Thunder

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 20:14

Some sweet action on the coast tonight - It's just pushing off Sydney now but not before a violent light show! Was flange city like Feb! Have to look at my shots once i transfer to the computer but there might be some ok ones in there. Will upload later if they're worth it.
Posted by: davidm

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 20:31

Few more shots, camera placement seemed to plague me tonight, so many good CGs yet so little to show from it. Still was an amazing show and screw it if I didn't get the shots I wanted grin


2059-001 by davebassjunkie, on Flickr

1948-001 by davebassjunkie, on Flickr

2102-001 by davebassjunkie, on Flickr
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 20:49

Great pictures Davidm.

Looks like the storm band has moved out to sea. It was an impressive light show here earlier, with constant flashes and bangs and heavy rain. Almost as good as the storm on January 8.
Posted by: Ocean Thunder

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 21:20

Having issues with photobucket, will try again tomorrow. Great shots David, i missed so many as well, even had my camera battery run out but got lucky a few times.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 21:29

It's like reading about another country. Storms?! We had a placid, pleasant early autumn day here, sunny with occasional cloud, a smidge of wind, good day for outdoor work.
Posted by: aslaws

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 21:39

Originally Posted By: ant
It's like reading about another country. Storms?! We had a placid, pleasant early autumn day here, sunny with occasional cloud, a smidge of wind, good day for outdoor work.


Funny Ant. If this was Europe it would be another country!
11.8c here - only 3.6mm with the storm we had this afternoon but very intense for a very short period.
Looking forward to our first proper bit of Antarctic/Southern Ocean cold this autumn.
Posted by: mattysmith

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 21:52

Taken near Rooty Hill, secret location smile







Posted by: Simmah

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 22:17

Heard via the grapevine (facebook) of some Damage in Asquith associated with the storm that went through around 7:30pm.. Initial reports called it a Tornado. Reviewing the Radar shows a cell pass over the area with an interesting shape, that switching to doppler shows definite rotation in the lower region of the storm. from 7:25pm to 7:55pm on the radar the rotation persists and the 7:31pm image is over Asquith, the 7:37 shows a small but intense area of rotation that is quite low within the storm (perhaps picking up the actual TOR being so close to the radar) and the 7:43 image continues with the strong returns as it pretty much passes over the radar

Have a look for yourselves, and switch to 64km radar loop to see the shape of the storm. I see a clear hook area associated with the rotation indicated with the doppler.

http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR71I-sydney-terrey-hills/2012-04-08-08/2012-04-08-13

- Simon
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 22:55

Hi folks! smile

I'm astonished at the radar images and the pics just posted here... looks like some of you copped some pretty incredible late-season thunderstorms! grin I'm so disappointed that the zone of storm activity didn't extend a few hundred kilometres southwest to the NSW Snowy Mountains and Southwest Slopes, as well as Northeast Victoria and the ACT. frown

Even so, it's been hard to complain about the weather here, my folks and I took a drive across the Murray River to Tumbarumba, where there is a bit of nice autumn colour but still a bit too early for me, looks like I'll be missing the best of it (I saw some stunning colour in the area in 2003, 2006, and 2007). It's been quite cool, breezy, and partly cloudy for much of the day (around 20C) after possible light early frost here in Corryong (missed it though as I slept in this morning).

I'm holding my breath for some weather action with the cold front currently entering Victoria - snow showers to 1100m in the VIC Alps and to 1000m in the NSW Snowy Mountains tomorrow (would love to be up at Cabramurra), hopefully I'll see some lovely coldies with hail and thunder in the Upper Murray, and another chance to wake up to some frost on Tuesday morning before I head back to Melbourne smile
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 23:20

Certainly looking to be a lot colder here tomorrow night. The barometer is finally falling, after heading upwards all weekend! No sign of anything incoming though, nothing much happening in the sky, wind etc. I figure it'll just clip us and make things cold.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 23:34

Originally Posted By: ant
Certainly looking to be a lot colder here tomorrow night. The barometer is finally falling, after heading upwards all weekend! No sign of anything incoming though, nothing much happening in the sky, wind etc. I figure it'll just clip us and make things cold.


Yeah, the Canberra area and the NSW Southern Tablelands, including Yass and Goulburn, are forecast to get a couple of afternoon and evening showers tomorrow - snow likely to develop to around 1200m especially in the eastern parts in the evening...
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 23:42

Bugger it! Too early. I'm really enjoying these low 20s days, really soft air, and no icy chill. sigh. Maybe this cold bubble will come, and go. Some rain would be nice! (I live in hope).
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2012 23:52

Originally Posted By: ant
Bugger it! Too early. I'm really enjoying these low 20s days, really soft air, and no icy chill. sigh. Maybe this cold bubble will come, and go. Some rain would be nice! (I live in hope).


The worst of it should be over and done with in the Canberra region after around 24 hours... Tuesday is supposed to be only about 16C in the Capital with morning frost likely but otherwise sunny... a couple of notches warmer on Wednesday then 20C+ warmth returning from Thursday onwards (cool to cold nights expected though)
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 00:13

Originally Posted By: ant
Bugger it! Too early. I'm really enjoying these low 20s days, really soft air, and no icy chill. sigh. Maybe this cold bubble will come, and go.


Well, if you could be bothered reading a forecast, that's exactly what will happen.

http://www.bom.gov.au/act/forecasts/canberra.shtml

Homer
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 00:20

Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak
Hi folks! smile


I'm holding my breath for some weather action with the cold front currently entering Victoria - snow showers to 1100m in the VIC Alps and to 1000m in the NSW Snowy Mountains tomorrow (would love to be up at Cabramurra), hopefully I'll see some lovely coldies with hail and thunder in the Upper Murray, and another chance to wake up to some frost on Tuesday morning before I head back to Melbourne smile


Hi ASF,

Yep,I'm looking forward to the short lived cold outbreak over the next couple of days. I'll be arriving in Kalkite about 3 PM this afternoon so should be just in time for arrival of the coldest air. Our place is at about 940 amsl, so with snow forecast down to 1000, we might see some sleet or maybe a flurry or two. If not, I only have a 3 minute drive to get up to 1200 mtrs if it looks juicier up there.
Our major problem is being on the wrong side of the lake. It's amazing how much the showers dry out once they cross the alps and head towards the eastern side of Lake Jindabyne. I'm thinking that there's not enough moisture in this change to give us too much, but I live in hope for every change that comes through.

Homer
Posted by: Ben

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 00:22

Okay, I can confirm this tornado report that Simmmah posted. I live in Asquith (mums house) and only 500m to my NE was the damage. I was out chasing the Hunter storms at the home, but people at home heard or saw nothing, understandably so, considering it was 7:30pm and pitch dark. We also had a blackout. Anyway I investigated the damage,around the Mills Park area. I would say it is definitely a tornado, in the F1-F2 range. Huge gum trees down, through peoples rooves jacarandas uprooted, some trees have been half eaten up. It is amazing how the damage stopped so suddenly. I spoke to 2 residents in the path. They said the winds lasted no more than 30 seconds, and it sounded like freight train. The damage also does not look linear, there is no one direction that it tracked. One resident, who had a tree in his yard uprooted and thrown through the neighbours house roof, said he was watching TV, and all of a sudden the wind picked up, the TV reception flickered and it got ridiculously windy for about 30 seconds, and then it went dead calm thereafter. And he stepped outside and saw the chaos. Simply amazing anyway, I will try and get photos of the damage in the morning if it is still around.

As for my chase, it was very scary. I got onto that storm near Singleton-Dungog, and it was briefly supercellur. Had a very nice wall cloud/meso, displaying some of the nicest structure I have seen in a couple of years, before it shot off east towards Gresford. I followed its path eastwards from Singleton and got pretty close to it.. until I took a corner too fast, hit a pothole which burst my front left tyre, and ended up in a paddock. Really really scary. Thankfully I was assisted within minutes and got towed out,and the lovely gentleman helped me fix my tyre up before the storm set in. It's people like this that helps restore your faith in the human kind.

The storm contained some strong winds in the order of 80-90km/h, some strong winds, and a little bit of hail 1-2cm for a minute or so before moving off to the east and giving an incredible lightning display (which unfortunately the rain was so heavy I could not get pics). Some of the most intense CG's and crawlers I have seen in a long time. I will get pics up of the structure soon I hope smile
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 00:38

Originally Posted By: Ben
Okay, I can confirm this tornado report that Simmmah posted. I live in Asquith (mums house) and only 500m to my NE was the damage. I was out chasing the Hunter storms at the home, but people at home heard or saw nothing, understandably so, considering it was 7:30pm and pitch dark. We also had a blackout. Anyway I investigated the damage,around the Mills Park area. I would say it is definitely a tornado, in the F1-F2 range. Huge gum trees down, through peoples rooves jacarandas uprooted, some trees have been half eaten up. It is amazing how the damage stopped so suddenly. I spoke to 2 residents in the path. They said the winds lasted no more than 30 seconds, and it sounded like freight train. The damage also does not look linear, there is no one direction that it tracked. One resident, who had a tree in his yard uprooted and thrown through the neighbours house roof, said he was watching TV, and all of a sudden the wind picked up, the TV reception flickered and it got ridiculously windy for about 30 seconds, and then it went dead calm thereafter. And he stepped outside and saw the chaos. Simply amazing anyway, I will try and get photos of the damage in the morning if it is still around.

As for my chase, it was very scary. I got onto that storm near Singleton-Dungog, and it was briefly supercellur. Had a very nice wall cloud/meso, displaying some of the nicest structure I have seen in a couple of years, before it shot off east towards Gresford. I followed its path eastwards from Singleton and got pretty close to it.. until I took a corner too fast, hit a pothole which burst my front left tyre, and ended up in a paddock. Really really scary. Thankfully I was assisted within minutes and got towed out,and the lovely gentleman helped me fix my tyre up before the storm set in. It's people like this that helps restore your faith in the human kind.

The storm contained some strong winds in the order of 80-90km/h, some strong winds, and a little bit of hail 1-2cm for a minute or so before moving off to the east and giving an incredible lightning display (which unfortunately the rain was so heavy I could not get pics). Some of the most intense CG's and crawlers I have seen in a long time. I will get pics up of the structure soon I hope smile


I was on a train on my way back from Newcastle. We were warned over the intercom that there could be delays ahead after we left Woy Woy. Thankfully, it wasn't too bad, but what I found strange was the train travelled quite slowly through the area from Cowan to Hornsby. I arrived back at Epping 10 minutes late.
I'm guessing your report would confirm the reason why.

Homer
Posted by: mkeene(pingtang)

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 00:59

Commitments saw me miss the show off Nowra,which was indeed a handy one though far from epic, it was a genuine strobefest, but haze full moon,and lack of cgs were the killers.

Met up with LC near Kiama. Watched a chunky tower go up off Wollongong, which we thought was certain to chuck out some Clear air CGs. It didn't ,so we gave up and headed for home. I decided to give it another 10minutes,and the tower got beefier again. Sure enough it managed a couple of CGs, which enabled me to snag a few ordinary shots.





The weak storm rapidly died. My attention then focused on the storm 200kms out to sea. It was going crazy,and I could'nt resist a few exposures.

Posted by: Ben

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 01:21

Indeed! There you go! I saw a bit of debris around on the way home but didn't think much more of it, than maybe heavy rain or something. Clearly surprised when I went to investigate.

Anyway 3 photos of today of the supercell near Singleton. Very disappointed with the quality of these, they are very grainy, as I shot with a high ISO as the storm was at dusk. So I apologise. But you get the idea of the structure.

Near Singleton, on approach. This was a fair way to my NW



Just about to head off to my east, probably one of the last shots I took before I headed east towards Gresford


On dusk, as the storm became outflow dominant. Still looked fairly beastly.


Larger sizes at http://www.flickr.com/photos/28009095@N05/
Was very surprised to see the BoM ignore the setup up completely. The setup today was really quite awesome, probably one of the best of the season, conductive to supercells and tornadoes. 35-40kts @ 700mb, 50 kts @ 500mb, and a NE'ly wind up to around 900mb at 10kts. Upper level temps were cool too -14 @ 500mb, and a very nice dry slot in the uppers too with good moisture in the lowers. Not surprised at all to see the quality of the storms today, probably the best stormday in April I can remember since 1999. If the high cloud wasnt around today it could have been even better! smile

And those pics are far from ordinary Michael, top stuff
Posted by: Ocean Thunder

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 07:09

Here's a couple of shots from last night, i was once again stuck at home when it hit. This first one is one of the most angry cg's i've ever snapped. There was one strange 'looping' crawler that i will post later (having internet connectivity issues).
The whole night was a real surprise since it is April and it had a N NW approach to begin with which aren't always the most reliable.




Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 07:28

And to follow the storms a light frost on the tablelands, Canberra (min 0.9) clearly had frost and also here (3.5 grass -2.4) a light frost with ice on cars.
An icy autumn morning will greet us tomorrow.
Posted by: Blizzard

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 07:38

Originally Posted By: Ben
Okay, I can confirm this tornado report that Simmmah posted. I live in Asquith (mums house) and only 500m to my NE was the damage. I was out chasing the Hunter storms at the home, but people at home heard or saw nothing, understandably so, considering it was 7:30pm and pitch dark. We also had a blackout. Anyway I investigated the damage,around the Mills Park area. I would say it is definitely a tornado, in the F1-F2 range. Huge gum trees down, through peoples rooves jacarandas uprooted, some trees have been half eaten up. It is amazing how the damage stopped so suddenly. I spoke to 2 residents in the path. They said the winds lasted no more than 30 seconds, and it sounded like freight train. The damage also does not look linear, there is no one direction that it tracked...


Look forward to any more details Ben. Fascinating stuff. I didn't get a chance to do much photography of note (just on dark, very grainy stuff) but it did look nice from up here. Some crisp flanking lines and anvils although by the time I captured them, things were a little less defined up this way.

A couple from last night, posted in the wrong thread yesterday:

http://twitpic.com/photos/BlackheathWx
Posted by: perrywinkle

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 07:51

Was a very wet, but windless storm here in the Warrawee Valley. Remarkable for the number of 'close' (simultaneous lightning + crack) hits. At one stage we we down one end of the house in a lull, and my son complained that the hairs up and down his spine, and on his face were prickling (He shaved for the Greatest Shave and I have no hair so no hair to stick up)- we retreated to the centre of the house quick-smart and craaaaaak! Good call. What is odd is that I can't figure what it hit. Our earth leakage circuit breaker went off but that is about it.

Hope every one is OK (my rest of my family is camping on the central tablelands - hail and tents don't mix!).

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/8448547/crews-mop-up-after-wild-sydney-storm
Posted by: MC Thomas

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 09:02

Originally Posted By: Simmah
Heard via the grapevine (facebook) of some Damage in Asquith associated with the storm that went through around 7:30pm.. Initial reports called it a Tornado. Reviewing the Radar shows a cell pass over the area with an interesting shape, that switching to doppler shows definite rotation in the lower region of the storm. from 7:25pm to 7:55pm on the radar the rotation persists and the 7:31pm image is over Asquith, the 7:37 shows a small but intense area of rotation that is quite low within the storm (perhaps picking up the actual TOR being so close to the radar) and the 7:43 image continues with the strong returns as it pretty much passes over the radar

Have a look for yourselves, and switch to 64km radar loop to see the shape of the storm. I see a clear hook area associated with the rotation indicated with the doppler.

http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR71I-sydney-terrey-hills/2012-04-08-08/2012-04-08-13

- Simon


Very interesting, thanks for pointing that out. Certainly nice that it occurred so close to the radar site. Just passed on descriptions, environment and radar, I'd have no problems calling tornado on this one.

Great photos by all.
Posted by: coalfire

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 09:10

A bit more like Autumn here this morning. The low overnight of 5 degrees and its 7 degrees now. Maybe the autumn colour will improve, the nights will definitely get colder now. The first frost should be happening shortly.Always before Anzac Day
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 10:27

Already frost this morning here, but what do you call the first frost when we had one in the middle of January. Not sure if that January frost should be called the last late frost after winter 2011 or the first frost of 2012?. Maybe there should be a cut of date in mid February at the time that DaveM defines as the earliest signs of Autumn.

I guess for our area, frost becomes a "normal" occurrence that can happen in a normal weekly or fortnightly weather cycle by Anzac Day.
Posted by: Rainbow Spirit

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 10:39

I was out to 2am with the SES at Fairfield, lots of large trees down, one member from Panania showed me a photo of hail 15mm in diameter at his house. The BoM was negligent with this storm, STWs issued during a storm just don't cut it.
Posted by: kizz

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 10:46

Complete and utter disaster here since we had one very close CG last night; no Foxtel signal!
Posted by: Simmah

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 11:05

Originally Posted By: Rainbow Spirit
The BoM was negligent with this storm, STWs issued during a storm just don't cut it.


Whilst i generally agree with you in this regard, i will defend the BoM in this case. Apart from a brief tornado which formed rapidly and out of what looks like quite a scrappy cell in the frames before the TOR, and even during the TOR is didn't look overly organized (without the doppler images you wouldn't have noticed the hook region and without the TOR reports you would have dismissed the initial couple of frames that suggested the rotation as a radar glitch..and the TOR happened in the 2nd frame). ALSO, From what i understand nothing else from all these storms was in the Severe category, and the potential for it to be so was very low.. Heck, storms weren't even on the books as far as i was aware (down here anyways). 15mm hail isn't in the severe category, there wasn't huge flash flooding rains and the only damaging winds was from the brief TOR... So if the TOR didn't happen, an STW wasn't even required under the STW parameters.

Anyways, thats just my opinion on Yesterdays events, in general i do agree with you.. AND AT least they issued a warning during the storms and not an hour afterwards, that's an Improvement on April 14/99 wink

Simon
Posted by: Simmah

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 11:19

Missed the edit time by a minute... grrr.. BUT..

EDIT: I Just read that you were in Fairfield with fallen trees etc.. SO perhaps the Damaging winds comment of mine was incorrect. Was this from the storm that had a Sepia core near Oatly?? Of all storms yesterday evening, this one would have got anyone's attention being the strongest of them all. (taking your focus off the TOR producing storm to the N too)
Posted by: Blizzard

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 11:23

Originally Posted By: PeterDuke
Already frost this morning here, but what do you call the first frost when we had one in the middle of January...


Had some 'roof frosts' here too. Neighbours have a corrugated iron roof. Was a bit windier here though, so nothing really cold. Got to nearly 3C in my screen as I am more sheltered than some areas, with a nice little pooling area behind me.

Could get to around 2C here tomorrow, if the wind isn't too high, always the problem up this way.
Posted by: Ocean Thunder

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 11:59

Here's another pic from last night, for some reason the one i want to show (a crawler that looped back on itself) just won't upload to my photobucket account. Bummed because it's the weirdest lightning i've ever seen. Will keep trying.
This shot shows the ferocity of the lightning last night, i saw one hit the ocean really close to the Point, it appeared to spark at the base and basically looked like it fried the water! smile

http://i1114.photobucket.com/albums/k525/Bretto771/April%208/IMG_4010.jpg
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 12:27

Originally Posted By: PeterDuke
Already frost this morning here, but what do you call the first frost when we had one in the middle of January. Not sure if that January frost should be called the last late frost after winter 2011 or the first frost of 2012?. Maybe there should be a cut of date in mid February at the time that DaveM defines as the earliest signs of Autumn...


I'll throw in my inexpert opinion.

In 2011/12, December was a cool wet extension of spring. After a false start in November, Summer didn't really get underway until early in the New Year, so possibly we should regard the cold outbreak of Jan 11/12 as the last gasp of the 2011 winter. Alternatively, we could regard the outbreak as a strange one-off event, although the cold probably originated over oceans still warming from the previous winter.

In either case, frosts occurring around now would be the first of the coming winter.
Posted by: Ben

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 13:30

North Turramurra was also quite damaged. Maybe even moreso than Asquith. Huge eucalyptus trees down across rooves, many uprooted that are massive. Tiles have been stripped off houses, damage is about 500m wide again. One of my friends houses was in the middle of it so I shall be asking their opinion when I can get hold of them.

Now what is REALLY cool is that I went to Golden Jubilee oval. Most of the oval is fine but I went for a bit of a walk into the bush and the damage starts there with a few trees uprooted. When you get to the cliff edge with a view across the valley there is a CLEAR damage path of where it tracked.. it carved its way right through the valley flattening everything in its path. Simply incredible.

I have photos but I am off to Wisemans Ferry now, so will put them up when I get back.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 13:44

Yes I saw that Doppler Wind radar last night, had no idea why I didn't think it wasn't a chance of a tornado, probably dont trust my judgement, did look like some beastly storms for you guys though!
Posted by: peterh

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 14:01

Being in the capital and usually the first to experience frosts about canberra, I am surprised that we have had mild nights, warm days and the only way to identify that winter is on its way is the change in the blue sky overhead. For whatever reason, in summer it is dark blue, but in winter it is light blue. The sky is light blue right now. No frosts, couple of heavy dews, and the rain has completely stopped. we are experiencing strong winds, but there isn't any other action in canberra, it seems to slip past us. Was advised by a weather forecaster that he thinks it won't be till October till canberra experiences any major storms.

Here's hoping he is wrong.
Posted by: Blizzard

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 14:09

Originally Posted By: Ben
... When you get to the cliff edge with a view across the valley there is a CLEAR damage path of where it tracked.. it carved its way right through the valley flattening everything in its path. Simply incredible.

I have photos but I am off to Wisemans Ferry now, so will put them up when I get back.


Can't wait for them.

In the mean-time, the contrasting weather patterns of autumn will be evident tomorrow morning with the BoM going for 4C in Katoomba. I am guessing we will see 2.5C here in Blackheath. If the wind dies down early on the eastern side of town, we could see 1.5C.
Posted by: Simmah

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 14:16

reading through more reports of last nights events in the basin, and Im starting to wind back my thoughts in the previous 2 posts of mine... There was indeed damaging winds (other then the TOR) and flash flooding but i think couple of the issues yesterday that these storms formed in what i feel was a marginal setup (like i said, i hadn't even noted storms were possible for down here, but we got them) and they intensified really quickly (and some died just as quick)... And with out going over the models again and data of the day, i don't think these storms got overly high. I think it caught the BoM off guard because 1. They developed in marginal circumstances, 2. They were seemingly low topped 3. They intensified from a thundery shower cell to something more severe in a matter of 5-10 minutes
Posted by: Simmah

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 14:52

Originally Posted By: Blizzard
Originally Posted By: Ben
... When you get to the cliff edge with a view across the valley there is a CLEAR damage path of where it tracked.. it carved its way right through the valley flattening everything in its path. Simply incredible.

I have photos but I am off to Wisemans Ferry now, so will put them up when I get back.


Can't wait for them.



Awesome stuff Ben! can't wait to see the pics either!


AS for frosts etc, in my 24 years growing up in Canberra.. It was almost a sure thing that Anzac day was the first frost for the year... Maybe because it was the one morning thousands are up super early for the dawn service so it was the first seen but not the first actual frost...i recall watching the forecasts as a kid and more often then not Anzac morning (or a day or 2 before or after) was nearly always the first minus temp for the winter season.
Posted by: mkeene(pingtang)

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 14:59

I noticed 6cm hail fell near Cronulla. So the severe criteria for hail has been met as well,easily. What i'm mostly annoyed about is the 4:20pm forecast, which had no mention of storms whatsoever, despite storms on the blue mountains,and ample shear to send them to the basin.
Posted by: Simmah

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 15:12

Originally Posted By: mkeene(pingtang)
I noticed 6cm hail fell near Cronulla. So the severe criteria for hail has been met as well,easily. What i'm mostly annoyed about is the 4:20pm forecast, which had no mention of storms whatsoever, despite storms on the blue mountains,and ample shear to send them to the basin.


6cm? sheeeeeeeeze! 2 sepia cores went pretty much over the same region, but i think this might have been from the first one, 7:24pm radar image?
Posted by: Simmah

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 15:24

With this TOR being close to TH radar, i neglected to look at Appin radar... Whilst the intensity is a bit suss on Appin the doppler works fine... and the TOR storm shows up extremely well considering the distance!!! Classic rotation signature IMO! Crazy stuff from a marginal day!

http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR03I-wollongong/2012-04-08-08/2012-04-08-11
Posted by: mattysmith

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 15:26

Where did you find out that info MK? i cant find anything on that hail
Posted by: mattysmith

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 15:27

Nice work sim grin
Posted by: Marts

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 15:51

Amazing what happened last night. Great reports and photos everyone. Only got the tail end of it here but still had some great lightning and thunder to go with it.
Looking forward to seeing some of the damage path.
Cheers for sharing everyone.

Marty
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 15:59

Originally Posted By: Blizzard
In the mean-time, the contrasting weather patterns of autumn will be evident tomorrow morning with the BoM going for 4C in Katoomba. I am guessing we will see 2.5C here in Blackheath. If the wind dies down early on the eastern side of town, we could see 1.5C.


Its tricky forecast for tomorrow morning, the wind will be teetering between SSW and SSE. Showers look like staying near the coast, however there should be some cloud and some wind on the BM and here. BM should see a bit more cloud in the afternoon as the wind is more certain to swing SSE by then. 850 temps should be about 4deg colder tomorrow morning but with the wind more S than SW like this morning frostiness will be reduced a little. It should be touch and go to reach zero degrees here, but it will not be a calm clear zero for sure. Would be nice to finally get lower than that January morning, will need to get lower than 0.5 for me.

The 1.5 to 2.5deg looks pretty right for the BM, probably 0-0.5 here, but it should be with some patchy dry low cloud and wind.
Posted by: mkeene(pingtang)

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 16:18

The hail was posted on the weather channel on facebook page this morning, they said it was from last night at Cronulla... The picture shows hail mostly around 4cms, but thats still more than enough to warrent a warning. The biggest stone measured to 6cms, however that was because the stone had pointy fingers on either of it...its wasn't the most solid 6cm stone ever.
Posted by: The Sentinel

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 16:42

WOW. That doppler loop really does make it look like there was rotation, and Ben's eyewitness report of the damage track is fascinating. Looking forward to seeing Ben's photos.

My inlaws live just the pother side of the valley from Golden Jubilee oval, you can see their place from the lookout Ben mentioned, if it's the one I think he means. They said the power went out but didn't mention anything about wind, which further implies the damage was indeed very localised.
Posted by: Farsouthscanner

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 17:17

I think Winter has arrived down here, its really cold and I have just heard that its snowing from Nimitabel to the top of Brown Mountain.
Posted by: Canberra's Weather

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 17:22

Winter?? Not QUITE yet, but good show 1°C this morning, and the forecast has 1°C again tomorrow morning and the morning after that. Still, not regular yet.
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 17:27

CW it's early Autumn,1C morning temps are pretty good for this time of year
Posted by: Grinch

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 17:41

Snow has been falling in Jindabyne for the last half hour and is settling on the ground.
:cheer:
Posted by: 6DBTH

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 17:44

Great reports/photos everyone! - Insane close flange OT! matty those rooty hill shots are awesome, so close...

Crazy that their could have been a tornado in Sydney?! -

Unfortunately I missed all the action in the Basin as I was up visiting the parents of the Central Coast - Lucky for me there was a big storm that moved through the Hunter/Newcastle area (the same one i think you were on originally ben before we almost lost you :)- it seemed to split down either side of the Hunter Valley). I headed up to Norah Head and aimed the camera North over the Munmorah Area. Captured some big crawlers - incredibly lightning active!


Munmorah Crawlers 02 by sixdegreesbelowthehorizon, on Flickr


Munmorah Crawlers 01 by sixdegreesbelowthehorizon, on Flickr


Munmorah Crawlers 03 by sixdegreesbelowthehorizon, on Flickr


Budgewoi CG's by sixdegreesbelowthehorizon, on Flickr
Posted by: The Sentinel

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 18:33

Originally Posted By: 6DBTH


Crazy that their could have been a tornado in Sydney?! -



I'm pretty sure it was just a 'mini-cyclone'. wink
Posted by: Storm Hunter

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 18:43

buy the news footage on ten,tornado for sure.
Posted by: Storm Hunter

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 19:01

Yrs ago my father told me about a tornado coming over the mountain range west of Millfield SW of Cessnock on the Wollombi road,he said it cleared a path down the mountain and moved huge boulders as it came.you could see the path it made for yrs after,from here in Ellalong 10kms to the east of Millfield,he said it came up real black in the west after a very hot day like a big storm,than he said he could here this deep roar in the distance, he said that was the tornado,the tornado lifted a whole house off it's piers and dropped it in another property,a piece of tin off the house roof cut a bloke down the side of his face,as far as I know he is still alive today and my father told me he got a nick name of scar face which he did'nt mind.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 21:01

It certainly feels like winter here, blustery southerly wind going, and finally got some brief showers. Haven't had a drop until about an hour ago. The westerly wind today was sharp and cold and very wintery. Didn't get near Canberra's minimum last night, the tomatoes and nasturtiums were still quite happy today. Hope they're still there tomorrow.
Posted by: aslaws

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 21:06

Originally Posted By: ant
It certainly feels like winter here, blustery southerly wind going, and finally got some brief showers. Haven't had a drop until about an hour ago. The westerly wind today was sharp and cold and very wintery. Didn't get near Canberra's minimum last night, the tomatoes and nasturtiums were still quite happy today. Hope they're still there tomorrow.


what's the temp there Ant now that the cold air & moisture has arrived?
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 21:26

It's 3.6c now, aslaws. I think some colder air arrived suddenly sometime at or after sunset, and it got a lot colder. I was amazed a while back to see it was 3.8c on my console. I've been in a t-shirt and shorts all day, but noticed taking the dog across the hill for his poo-walk at sunset, my hands got numb.

and did I go down the hill and start splitting wood for winter today? Nooooo. I planted bloody daffodil bulbs.
Posted by: aslaws

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 21:32

still a balmy 8.9c here
no precipitation forecast here tonight but I am watching something popping up over the Oberon Plateau on the radar.
Posted by: Grinch

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 22:05

Originally Posted By: Storm Hunter
buy the news footage on ten,tornado for sure.


If this is the only evidence offered then I doubt it very much. Significant multiple microbursts or extremely strong outflow winds could cause the damage seen on tv.
cheers
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 22:15

Originally Posted By: aslaws
still a balmy 8.9c here
no precipitation forecast here tonight but I am watching something popping up over the Oberon Plateau on the radar.


I didn't think we'd get any rain. Before sunset it was just those useless cold clouds. After sunset, they looked a bit more useful and it was nice to hear the rain on the roof. Didn't even get enough to activate my chimney leak though.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 23:19

Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak
Hi folks! smile


I'm holding my breath for some weather action with the cold front currently entering Victoria - snow showers to 1100m in the VIC Alps and to 1000m in the NSW Snowy Mountains tomorrow (would love to be up at Cabramurra), hopefully I'll see some lovely coldies with hail and thunder in the Upper Murray, and another chance to wake up to some frost on Tuesday morning before I head back to Melbourne smile


Hi ASF,

Yep,I'm looking forward to the short lived cold outbreak over the next couple of days. I'll be arriving in Kalkite about 3 PM this afternoon so should be just in time for arrival of the coldest air. Our place is at about 940 amsl, so with snow forecast down to 1000, we might see some sleet or maybe a flurry or two. If not, I only have a 3 minute drive to get up to 1200 mtrs if it looks juicier up there.
Our major problem is being on the wrong side of the lake. It's amazing how much the showers dry out once they cross the alps and head towards the eastern side of Lake Jindabyne. I'm thinking that there's not enough moisture in this change to give us too much, but I live in hope for every change that comes through.

Homer


G'day Homer! How's it going mate? smile

Hope you made it safely to Kalkite, did you get some sleet and/or snow flurries?

Yeah I agree, the trouble with the Jinabyne area, as well as Cooma and even Canberra, is that having the Snowy Mountains to the west means that they're much drier than Corryong, Khancoban, Tumbarumba, Cabramurra, Thredbo, Charlotte Pass, Perisher Valley, etc. In general, the Southern Tablelands is a very parched area; many cold fronts and other rain-bearing weather systems here in the mid-latitudes tend to lose much of their moisture once they hit the western side of the Kosciuszko National Park unfortantely, and despite having the South Coast and Illawarra regions to the east, its elevation means that onshore winds tend to also lose much of their moisture on the coastal slopes beforehand frown

I saw no snow or sleet today, but I was out with my family this afternoon, travelling along the Murray River fto Towong, Tintaldra, Walwa and Jingellic. A few gusty showers this arvo here in the Upper Murray, risk of thunderstorms, encountered no hail, thunder or lightning but saw some decent cold-air cumulonimbus, distant hailshafts, rainbows, and a gorgeous sunset. smile

Gonna be a frosty night here in Corryong, expected to dip to 1C (currently about 5C at the local aerodrome) smile

* actually dipped to around 3C, getting colder... grin
Posted by: aslaws

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2012 23:36

Light rain has just started here which was not really forecast (though there was a hint that it might be possible on the 18z AccessR)
Still mild at 7.7c and humidity now up to 79%
Posted by: Cloudz

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 00:28

Can any of you lucky people who live in areas that show Autumn colour please post some pictures so we can all share? wink
Posted by: core puncher

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 00:36

not sure if i should post here regarding the storms that rolled through sunday night, noticed others had so thought it better to keep it close by,.. just a teaser for now as i need to edit the rest of my footage.. I spent the night in john hunter due to a -very- close proximity strike at hexham due to heart and some strong muscle pains. hearts fine, body aches but undies ruined.. sorry about the quality of footage but was taken on my phone while preoccupied and HD camera was flat.. crank the sound and put a extra pair of undies on..a diaper even..

Ive heard many ask about the dreaded click before bolt,. and well i think i captured it beautifully.

enjoy..

me almost getting fried...
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 06:08

First below freezing min of the year this morning, not sure what the final figure will be but -0.2 currently, grass -7
Posted by: Ron W at Walcha

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 06:40

Frost and screen at -2.3- goodbye pumpkin vines and tomato bushes.
Posted by: Stormyweather

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 06:41

A neat 4c at 6.35am here in Hazelbrook
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 07:03

Still lost another 1/2 a degree to -0.7 now.
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 07:20

Gone from a warm to start to April to a much colder min than in the whole of April 2011, got to like that.
Posted by: Blair

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 07:20

Oberon had a nice frost on cars and roofs, but not much on the grass. temp currently 0.3c
Posted by: aussielunix

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 07:26

Just went for a walk around Leura and didn't see any frost.
Posted by: Blizzard

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 07:54

1.3C at 6:45am with frost on cars and lawn.
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 07:56

Kalkite was 2 degrees at 6.45 this morning but no frost, as it was raining.

Homer PS. Glad you're alright Core Puncher!!
Posted by: davidg

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 07:58

Originally Posted By: core puncher
not sure if i should post here regarding the storms that rolled through sunday night, noticed others had so thought it better to keep it close by,.. just a teaser for now as i need to edit the rest of my footage.. I spent the night in john hunter due to a -very- close proximity strike at hexham due to heart and some strong muscle pains. hearts fine, body aches but undies ruined.. sorry about the quality of footage but was taken on my phone while preoccupied and HD camera was flat.. crank the sound and put a extra pair of undies on..a diaper even..

Ive heard many ask about the dreaded click before bolt,. and well i think i captured it beautifully.

enjoy..

me almost getting fried...





shocked thats way too close for comfort! Hope not too much damage done. How was the camera more importantly wink haha
Posted by: davidg

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 08:03

Originally Posted By: PeterDuke
Still lost another 1/2 a degree to -0.7 now.


Nice PD. Bodes well for the rest of Autumn hopefully.

Snowies got a decent dusting overnight as well. Baw Baw a little bit more than a dusting, 20cm or so going off the cams and AWS obs!
Posted by: Blair

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 08:20

Slowly 'warming' up here in Oberon temp 2.7c, though i have noticed the wind pick up a bit, certainly feels fresh outside today!
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 09:00

4.4c when the sun came out this morning. Temp had gone from 3.6c to 3.8c at 11.30pm last night, and there was definitely no frost up at house level as the garden was completely undamaged. However, on the steps lower down there was a silvery-looking covering, but no frost damage to plants at that level either. A practise-frost?

Wind (still from the south) was like a knife and it's even worse down at cbr aiport, I think it's a wind-canyon. The sun has work to do today.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 09:04

9.1C this morning with no help from an inversion, that's impressive for early April. This is fair compensation for the Indian summer. Still reckon the rest of the month will be warmer than average but this helps restore my faith for winter for the moment smile. Lucas Heights had negative windchill early AM also.

Posted by: Greg Sorenson

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 10:40

Great reports and images from this recent event/s, thanks fro sharing everyone. I was completely oblivious to any ongoings due to camping up in the snowies near the Blue Lake. There was some convection on Friday which i assumed meant that there would be storms either on the coast or further nth of the ranges which proved to be correct going by all the action you guys got a piece of.

Sat evening / Sunday got down to -2 to -3 going by a thermometer i had on me. We had a great frost on the sunday morning with some 8mm of ice on the car windscreen, so quite thick for this time of year.
I'll be def camping up in the same region this winter to do some landscape photography, such a beautiful area.
Posted by: coalfire

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 10:41

My first frost so far this Autumn, a fairly good one. The temp was almost minus 1 here earlier this morning. It is up to 7 degrees now. I would say that Autumn is definitely under way here in the cold old Lithgow Valley.
Posted by: The Sentinel

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 10:59

For those interested. here are some radar grabs from Sunday Night's storm in Turramurra.

Pretty strong case for rotation and possible tornado...

It looks like it lasted around 10-15 minutes.

Terrey Hills Doppler:




Appin Doppler:




Thoughts?
Posted by: Greg Sorenson

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 11:34

It would also be a good idea to relate the doppler signature to the prevailing winds at the time - this would then help to separate out rotation to say inflow / outflow within the storm structure.
Posted by: The Sentinel

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 12:17

Good point. I'm no expert, but from what I can see, it looks like the prevailing winds were blowing from North West to South East at about 30km/h.

Just spoke to my father-inlaw in North Turramurra. He comes from Tornado Alley in the USA, so he knows his stuff when it comes to storm damage. He reckons from what he's seen, it looks more like microburst damage than a tornado.
Posted by: core puncher

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 12:22

wow after having a good read through the reports on this storm system.. what a way to show up a poor season in a nutshell. some very nice footage. my photos dont do half the justice but i was plagued with BAD timing and rain bunnies (and very poor internet reception on my phone all day).. the day to me spelt no storms..alot of factors where there it just didnt feel right..

i had just arrived at my dads near lake mac on dark and the skies started looking omnious.. and no sooner i finlly got a connection and looked at the radar my jaw hit the floor.. moments later the ewn warning came through.. so it was back in the car to race to the nearest high point at speers point,. rain eluded me with only a few shots before it started at this stage i was watching the cell out dungog way that ben mentioned totally going bezerk! i had lightning dropping in all directions and was in car but right next to a pole that i had been given a buzz from in the past so decided it best find a safer location. and the stuff to my south though throwing excellent cg's was heading away and out to sea (this would be what 6DBTH was on to). I had originally planned while in newcastle planned to teach a friend the ropes to capture lighting but she was at dinner when i mde the first call so i decided to head north and double back for her and hopefully christian her to a offshore show later in the evening.

she canned dinner and raced home calling me when i was half way to my next location but had to decline the urges to go back for her,. glad i didnt.. and sort of wish i had of..

seeing that it was still sliding se i tried to get in front and or closer to its core..i had only just made it to hexham when a mate called who was lucky to be 5min ahead of me on the same road going to the gym and paid mention that it was peeing down with strong winds and small hail and cgs pounding the area, he was near thorton at this stage..i was at hexham maccas at this time about to leach there wifi but knew all to well it was getting close fast so resorted to the servo for a tad more cover from the rain.. by the time i set up it was a battle between the blow back mist, cleaning the lens and hoping.. only managed a few bolts.. but all in all really enjoyed the show.

i popped into the servo and spoke with the attendant and im going to contact both maccas and the company who owns the servo to see if they can suss the cctv out and see if the bolt was captured. all i got was the leaders pre strike.. 100000's of a second from nailing it.. the attendant mentioned the motofarm branch got nailed also and fried all there systems and was still out of action 24hrs later. there store lost everything for a few hours and had quiet a bit of items fried. motto farm was on my sights as the area is so open with tele poles galour most shots i got where ones nailing those poles but i had the mangrove strip blocking the lower portions.

for those that asked im doing fine, the cold is not helping the aches etc but getting there. and cameras took the extraelectrical enviroment ok,. i was actually rather chuffed how well my phone took the footage (yes rather bouncy and choppy but no flicker or sound distortion) :o)

a few pics from sunday night, 5th photo in shows the leaders to my flang.

another short clip from proceeding the big strike.

might head out now and watch these coldies come up the coast, might bag a spout out of them.. conditions are ripe with the freezing uppers and the water is nice and warm still.. if all else fails the stunt kites are packed might go sand skiing smile
Posted by: Storm Hunter

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 12:24

Those heavy showers,storms just off shore, it will only take this SW to S flow to turn more SE on shore and the coast will get a big drenching,I think this might happen over night or tomorrow,but I would say you all know that anyway.
Posted by: Blizzard

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 12:40

Still only 8.7C here at midday, very nice. Feels wonderfully invigorating. With the breeze, the apparent temp is around 4C.

I am curious how the BoM often over estimates minimums in these situations on the tablelands. I posted that it could get down to 1.5C here (if I remember correctly) and it did. Katoomba came in at 2C. I think the BoM had predicted 4C for them.

Pristine day up here.
Posted by: core puncher

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 13:11

yeah storm hunter its starting to darken heaps to the east now..

im itching to get back up the mountains to enjoy the autum fall. wasnt too much going on up there a couple of weekends ago, but come the get together at leura on the 21st things should be looking gorgeous smile
Posted by: Ocean Thunder

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 13:32

Originally Posted By: 6DBTH
Great reports/photos everyone! - Insane close flange OT! matty those rooty hill shots are awesome, so close...

Crazy that their could have been a tornado in Sydney?! -

Unfortunately I missed all the action in the Basin as I was up visiting the parents of the Central Coast - Lucky for me there was a big storm that moved through the Hunter/Newcastle area (the same one i think you were on originally ben before we almost lost you :)- it seemed to split down either side of the Hunter Valley). I headed up to Norah Head and aimed the camera North over the Munmorah Area. Captured some big crawlers - incredibly lightning active!



Some crazy crawlers in there 6D!
I hope everyone enjoyed (without any damage) what surely must be one of, if not the last storm for Sydney this season.
Posted by: coalfire

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 13:38

The constant over estimation by the bureau was one of the reasons that prompted me to join this site(instead of just reading) and contribute a few recordings of temperatures for my area this Autumn and Winter. I almost made it to minus one this morning.The forecast minimum was 3. It is a fair bit of a difference.

I suppose a lot may depend upon where exactly the bureau take their readings.I for one,was pleased to see the end of the Birdwood St site here in Lithgow. Years and years of records that i feel were not indicative of real conditions in this town. I have heard some of you making similar comments about the current site in Katoomba.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 14:08

Lithgow has some ripper frost hollows, around the Morts Estate comes to mind (some areas barely see the sun in winter). Areas on the slopes of Hassans Walls etc would be a lot warmer. Just looked up Birdwood and its on the lower slopes of Hassans so would be one of those warm sites.
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 14:27

I've stayed at the Lithgow Caravan Park once before, and it looks like it would be in a bit of a frost hollow. My stay was during the summer tho, so I could be totally wrong on that one. I know the camping area at Newnes is a great big frost hollow, as I camped there one weekend last May and the frost was almost as thick as I’ve ever seen, great spot that one. smile
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 14:40

Autumn has certainly arrived.......at least in the Snowy Mountains.

Finally, some pictures of the snowfall in the Snowies. Both taken this morning at about 7.20 on my mobile. It was 2 degs and snowing lightly at the time. The photos from yesterday were not as good as it was quite dark, but there was more snow on the ground and trees.


http://www.flickr.com/photos/74080852@N04/6917211906/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/74080852@N04/7063284073/

This short video, also taken on my mobile was from yesterday afternoon about 20 minutes after the snow started falling. Time 5.20. Temperature was zero. Altitude was about 1160 asl.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8M4320EAS4&feature=youtu.be

Homer
Posted by: Stormyweather

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 14:45

So .... last night/this morning it got down to 4c - tonight they are forecasting 3c for Katoomba ..... My question for my esteemed fellow forum people - should I get the fire going ? Do you think it will get down to 3c tonight ? Currently it's saying 16c outside ....
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 14:53

No way it would be 16C in Hazo now (it's 16 at sea level at some spots), more like 12-13. With the BMs it's hard to forecast as mentioned, all depends on how much the wind dies down and whether cloud cover develops if winds swing onshore. Tonight should be a little warmer for most as the coldest air retreats but could be colder in some protected spots.


Posted by: 6DBTH

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 14:55

Great stuff CP! - The cells that went through North and South of Newcastle seemed way wilder on the radar in terms of lightning than the ones that hit Sydney. Cant say i wasn't bummed though OT to see a crazy storm go through the Northern Beaches without me there! - hopefully not the last of the season but more than likely.

I also had my eyes peeled for waterspouts this morning when i was checking the surf (of which there wasn't any - waterspouts or surf) but did see a few offshore flashes.... obviously still a bit of instability around...
Posted by: Stormyweather

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 16:06

Have moved the external monitor to a slightly more "exposed" position and now it's 12.2c ... still can't decide about the fire. I'm sure it will be Murphy's Law - light the fire = mild night, don't light the fire = freezing and a heavy frost !
Posted by: ducksta

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 16:08

We get some ripper frosts here in winter, we are just below the base of scottmans hill in Lithgow. Sometimes we still have a heavy frost on the ground until lunch time because we get no sun until late morning in the dead of winter.
Posted by: Stormyweather

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 16:55

I caved - fire is lit - I suppose better to try the first fire of the season when it isn't likely to be bitterly cold, just in case we need some tweaking.
Posted by: coalfire

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 17:30

Originally Posted By: Southerly_Buster
Lithgow has some ripper frost hollows, around the Morts Estate comes to mind (some areas barely see the sun in winter). Areas on the slopes of Hassans Walls etc would be a lot warmer. Just looked up Birdwood and its on the lower slopes of Hassans so would be one of those warm sites.





You are right mate. That elevated Birdwood site with its sunny northerly aspect and cold air drainage was always much warmer than the temperatures i record, especially in classic Lithgow frost weather. I am in the area known as Hermitage Flat, it's lower down and near Farmers Creek. It can be dreadfully cold on this side of town. Like Ducksta said, In winter we dont see the sun until very late.

I have had the fire going on and off over the last couple of weeks.I may as well enjoy it this year whilst I am still allowed.
Posted by: Blizzard

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 18:30

Yeah, there are some very shady spots in Lithgow area. We are the opposite in that our afternoons are shorter in winter, being on the eastern side of a hill. Still, that hill helps snow accumulate better here and also keeps the strongest winds away from us.
Posted by: aslaws

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 18:52

Already 5.2c here - forecast is 4c so you would think we should get lower than this BUT that good old escarpment breeze should start soon & keep the air well mixed & mild. Minimum was 2.9c this morning which was warmer than sites at similar altitude up here.

max was 10.7c at 3pm this afternoon.
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 18:56

Temps are dropping very fast this evening, I thought the easterly would take care of that, but instead we seem to getting a good build up of a strong high. Grass temp here shot through zero right on sunset, frost outside now. Air temp also dropping at a rate of knots and heading towards last nights readings again. Could be a few consecutive frosts now.
Models showing the classic strong high forming in the SE in the wake of a cold change as normally happens in autumn. This weather pattern if anything is a few weeks early this year, looking excellent for winter.

PS that is a low max Aslaws, my max was 11.3. Now grass -3, screen 3.8
Posted by: aslaws

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 19:12

Very sheltered here PD + I think the coldest air was more in the east.
Our garden averages about 1C lower than Murri St, Katoomba during winter for maximums
Posted by: FaulcoChasers

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 19:55

Definite nip in the air around here on the South side of Faulconbridge.

This morning at 6.30am it was only 6.3.

Tonight it is currently 8.4 at 7.55pm.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 20:39

Great storm and snow pictures / videos everyone. And I hope Core Puncher is OK after his close call - awsome video.

It's been an interesting couple of days weatherwise - the last storm of summer, quickly followed by the first winter cold front. I like weather being seasonal. I hope we have a cool autumn with rain where it's needed, a cold winter with lots of snow for the highlanders and rain for the wheat belt, with a sparkling spring and a hot summer with lots of storms to follow.
Posted by: aussielunix

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 20:56

Katoomba has now dropped below (3.7) the predicted minimum of 4.0.
Interesting to see what happens now.


Mick
Posted by: aslaws

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 21:10

still 4.2c on the western escarpment - mixing central with very occasional cold air pooling!
Posted by: davidg

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 21:16

Richmond down to 8.5c (forecast of 8). Should get to 5 or so if the calm conditions persist.

Penrith still stuck on 12c. Its quite a warm location on a calm cool night. Not really indicative of the surrounding area. Being such close proximity to the "lakes" (old quarries that have been allowed to fill with water) i sometimes wonder if the bodies of water have much of an effect or if its purely topographic effects. There is regularly heavy frost just up the road from the AWS and its stil reading +2 or +3. At the same time richmond and campbelltown are reading -0.5 or -1.0.

Anyway, good to see a couple of early frosts in the BM's and CT's.eep us posted on those screen and grass temps Peter Duke!
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 21:32

5.1c outside, the Canberra obs say it's windy but it sure isn't here, a 9.7 km/hr southerly. Chimney leak has commenced dripping which means there's moisture and condensation and stuff on the roof. Buggeration it's cold! Need a thicker snuggie. Hope a frost doesn't come and get the garden.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 21:43

Originally Posted By: Cloudz
Can any of you lucky people who live in areas that show Autumn colour please post some pictures so we can all share? wink


Here is a mobile phone picture of some early autumn trees in Canberra a week ago, taken near the National Gallery. It's still early days - it will probably be about another month for the autumn displays to peak.


03042012274 Autumn Canberra 2 by Stevevii77, on Flickr

Not much in Sydney yet - a bit of yellow on the North Shore. Sydney's really a bit too warm for a proper display. Leaves on deciduous trees tend to turn brown in April and May and hang on until June. Still, you can see some good displays in May, especially on the upper North Shore and more so in the Blue Mountains.
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 21:47

Screen 1.2, grass -4.7 now.
That is pretty windy ant, dead calm here, brilliant stars.
Looks like there will be a frost every day now at least until Friday. Saturday might miss out due to cloud drifting in from the NW.
Posted by: peterh

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 22:07

if you are in canberra, the places that really stand out are the road to government house, Yarralumla, Ainslie - Mount Ainslie can give you an elevated shot, or any of the old suburbs, red hill, griffith etc. newer suburbia seems to be natives, mores the pity.
Posted by: peterh

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 22:14

Yesterday, around 5.00pm, I went out to see if I could capture some autumn shots. The wind was bitterly cold, and it had the smell of rain in it.

here are two I got, from an oval in gilmore - the hills are visible from it as the trees aren't massive yet.




the rain hit gilmore about 10 mins after that, it was a short shower, but the rain returned in the night. I got a lowest temp of -1, and a light ice / frost mix.
Posted by: peterh

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 22:23

here is a panorama from macarthur, ACT to gilmore, ACT.
Posted by: Blair

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 22:27

Its currently clear outside here in Oberon with a temp of 1.3c and surprisingly no wind, just a nice cool and stary night =)
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 22:50

Currently 4.2 here (Kalkite)but overcast, and quite windy. Gusting 25-30 km/h easily. Maybe more. Can easily hear it over the noise of the tele.

Homer
Posted by: Simmah

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2012 23:29

Originally Posted By: The Sentinel
For those interested. here are some radar grabs from Sunday Night's storm in Turramurra.

Pretty strong case for rotation and possible tornado...

It looks like it lasted around 10-15 minutes.

I refer you to some earlier posts.
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...NSW#Post1098387
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...NSW#Post1098400
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...NSW#Post1098462
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...NSW#Post1098501

So Absolutely a strong case... and all but officially confirmed by the BoM. (i might fire an email off to them now actually)

Originally Posted By: Greg Sorenson
It would also be a good idea to relate the doppler signature to the prevailing winds at the time - this would then help to separate out rotation to say inflow / outflow within the storm structure.



Good idea indeed... But unwarranted in this case IMO, As per the links above, The witness reports and damage survey done by Ben are merely backed up by the dopplers. The damage in Asquith and North Turramurra is non linear and quite narrow and the length would be near 4km (perhaps 5km) going by the damage reports with the doppler indicated vorticity lasting up around 15km.

Simon smile
Posted by: Greg Sorenson

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 00:24

I look forward to seeing Ben's images with a corresponding damage tracking map if it's possible for him do so at some stage. The more info displayed in a concise visual manner will be helpful for those who weren't there. Love this sort of detective work!
Posted by: Simmah

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 00:29

Originally Posted By: Greg Sorenson
I look forward to seeing Ben's images with a corresponding damage tracking map if it's possible for him do so at some stage. The more info displayed in a concise visual manner will be helpful for those who weren't there. Love this sort of detective work!


Agreed, We "all" like to chase, and even enjoy an arm chair one from many a mile away (already had the GRLevel3 running a fair bit in recent weeks).. and i reckon the same goes for storm related detective work. If we can't do it ourselves, an arm chair go can be quite rewarding too wink

Simon
Posted by: Ben

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 02:26

Originally Posted By: Greg Sorenson
I look forward to seeing Ben's images with a corresponding damage tracking map if it's possible for him do so at some stage. The more info displayed in a concise visual manner will be helpful for those who weren't there. Love this sort of detective work!


Haha funnily enough I went for a drive after work to other locations I thought may have been affected by the track in order to do this and I think I have observed enough locations to put together a damage track of the likely tornado. It's a dodgy job on paint but you get the idea. The thicker black parts are my observation points. I have put my estimated fujita scale in terms of the damage I saw, though for the latter two locations my observations were 2 days after the event, and it could have been cleaned up. But there was still a lot of trees down on the sides of the road.


Largest

In terms of the damage photos, I'll do that tomorrow (rather, later today). Been away for easter so haven't had time to sort them out etc but have a day off tomorrow.
Posted by: Ben

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 02:50

It is also articles like this one in the local paper that are annoying. Trying not to scare the public I guess. Winds 80km/h is no where near strong enough to have caused the damage there.

There is a good amount of photos however from the North Turramurra area on the local papers website here if anyone is interested.
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 06:50

Wind came up at 2am so temp did not drop much more and started to rise slowly after that. However the sky stayed clear and frost still covers the grass this morning with a temp around +2, low was 0.6, grass low -6.
Posted by: perrywinkle

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 07:09

Great work Ben. Very fortunate that the path wasn't a smidgin' further south - it would have gone through the SES! I wonder if that area is vulnerable to tornados?

My husband relates that after "The Big Storm" (can't recall the date - last century!) he went on a bike ride with a mate to West Head. At the southern end of the West Head Road, as it hits the top of the ridge, there was a narrow swathe of obliterated bushland, crowned off with a road sign which had been wrapped around its pole like a piece of paper, and the the pole bent towards the ground. He described the few stumps left as looking like a giant had grabbed them in his fist and twisted them off. Wish he'd had a camera. I'm guessing the NPWS might have a photo on archive somewhere...
Posted by: Greg Sorenson

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 09:14

thanks for your efforts Ben - i can't wait to see your images. Great stuff.
Posted by: kizz

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 09:39

Just had a Foxtel technician around to replace the set top box that got fried on Sunday night.
He tells me that they're flat out doing house calls in this suburb and surrounding suburbs; replacing set tops killed by the spike in the network caused by CG strikes.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 09:58

That map is really interesting... imagine if it had cut through tightly-populated suburbs.

Damn wind got going this morning, around dawn-ish. COLD. But definitely no frost, I was out watering the important stuff at 6.30am and eveyrthing was looking bright and happy, new nasturtiums even sprouting. They're doomed, the poor little things. At least the sun is warm, heating up the ground and rocks.
Posted by: avalon

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 10:46

Interesting to note the lack of autumn colour in the Poplars in Homers Youtube snow video. I would have thought Poplars in that neck of the woods would have been well coloured by now.
Great looking snow though!
Posted by: Canberra's Weather

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 10:52

Originally Posted By: kizz
Just had a Foxtel technician around to replace the set top box that got fried on Sunday night.
He tells me that they're flat out doing house calls in this suburb and surrounding suburbs; replacing set tops killed by the spike in the network caused by CG strikes.
How did everything else survive the CGs? Every time there is lightning and thunder (especially when we get close lightning strikes) I worry about anything connected to the mains, or to the TV aerial, getting fried. Thankfully (luckily) I have never suffered damage due to lightning strikes.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 11:28

My giant old TV had its power thingy fried by lightning some years back. I always switch off the power at the wall these days and hope that's enough. If lightning is striking close to me, I unplug everything and pull out the aerial socket too. Getting a giant TV to the fixers is very inconvenient! My Pioneer DVD player suddenly died some weeks back, and we had a close t-storm, but everything else on the same powerboard was unaffected, so I figure it was just a dud DVD player (out of warranty, naturally... the batteries in the remote lasted longer than the player).
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 11:36

Who was after Canberra autumn foliage shots? The local news site is putting some up here:
http://the-riotact.com/autumn-images-part-4-images-of-canberra/70113

AS you can see, we're off to a slow start but these cold nights will see the colour gearing up now, so more shots should come in soon with yellows and reds.
Posted by: MC Thomas

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 12:07

Originally Posted By: Ben
It is also articles like this one in the local paper that are annoying. Trying not to scare the public I guess. Winds 80km/h is no where near strong enough to have caused the damage there.

There is a good amount of photos however from the North Turramurra area on the local papers website here if anyone is interested.


Nice work in determining the damage path. I must say, that article is a suprise. To quote the news article -

"But the tempest that lashed the north shore was just a severe thunderstorm, says the Weather Channel.

While Turramurra experienced wind gusts of up to 80 km/h they were not of the intensity of ``tornados’’ that ravaged the north shore in 1991 and 1996."

Why would the Weather Channel so quickly dismiss this as just a severe storm? I would think the narrow damage path and doppler-indicated rotation would at least suggest the possiblity of a tornado. In addition, the storm formed in a low LCL/strong shear environment which again would suggest the possiblity of tornadoes.

With this possible tornado occuring so close to the Terry Hills radar site, I would be interested to know what height at which the radar beam intersected the storm.
Posted by: The Sentinel

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 12:16

Originally Posted By: Simmah

So Absolutely a strong case... and all but officially confirmed by the BoM. (i might fire an email off to them now actually)


Very interested to hear what they come back with Simon!
Posted by: kizz

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 13:04

Originally Posted By: Canberra's Weather
How did everything else survive the CGs? Every time there is lightning and thunder (especially when we get close lightning strikes) I worry about anything connected to the mains, or to the TV aerial, getting fried.


Everything else was fine in the area; internet, power etc. Not affected at all. No blackouts. Not even a brown out or one of those half second interruptions. Just Foxtel.
I even have the Foxtel cable running through a Monster powerboard that is supposed to have a surge protector in it. So much for that Monster product!
Posted by: The Sentinel

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 13:54

The majority of surge protectors just designed to filter transients in the order of 1-50V, not a 1,000,000V spike.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 15:02

Really happy I got to see some snow yesterday while travelling back home to Melbourne, although from a distance. smile Just outside of Corryong, while on the Murray Valley Highway heading towards Tallangatta and Albury/Wodonga, I noted some patches of the white stuff on the main Kosciuszko ridge to the southeast. A bit of it also showed up on the live webcams at the Thredbo Ski Resort, as you can see by clicking this link...

http://www.thredbo.com.au/weather-and-conditions/resort-cameras/live-cams.asp#
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 15:22

The Smiggins Holes webcam is currently offline, but judging by what I'm seeing on the Charlotte Pass and Perisher webcams, much of the snow has melted...

http://www.charlottepass.com.au/

http://www.perisher.com.au/weather-cams/cams.html
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 16:22

It won't last long, the ground is still very warm from summer. You need that sustained cool-down to happen so the snowfalls will hold. Same with the falls in summer, it's cold when they fall, but the ground is holding too much heat.

I imagine that area around the back of the main range and into Vic must be looking fantastic now as the colours start up. We used to go that way to the Albury hockey carnival each easter, and discovered that the pubs along the murray (Walwa et al) often opened for a few hours on Good Friday.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 17:35

Originally Posted By: ant
It won't last long, the ground is still very warm from summer. You need that sustained cool-down to happen so the snowfalls will hold. Same with the falls in summer, it's cold when they fall, but the ground is holding too much heat.

I imagine that area around the back of the main range and into Vic must be looking fantastic now as the colours start up. We used to go that way to the Albury hockey carnival each easter, and discovered that the pubs along the murray (Walwa et al) often opened for a few hours on Good Friday.


Yeah true about the ground still being too warm for the snow, I totally forgot about that poke

Yes, in some areas of the Upper Murray region of Northeast Victoria and NSW there's a fair amount of autumn colour, still a bit early overall though. More cold air and frost over the next few weeks or so should help, but unfortunately I won't be there to see it frown
Posted by: Marts

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 17:58

Great work Ben! I drove through that part of Mona Vale road just past St Ives showground this arvo and there is evidence of damage to trees and branches down everywhere in a narrow path where you marked on the map in that area. Nice work.
Showers are still just hanging off the coast atm, they are have trouble making landfall.
Posted by: peterh

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 19:54

many of the boards have a capacitor that is designed to blow on a surge, they then melt and seal the connection again. rule of thumb is to chuck out a surge arrestor after a storm where it was tripped. I have a house full of devices, that way I can save the important stuff like the fridge, TV etc. I have spares, but have thrown out at least 10 in the last storm season.
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2012 21:07

Originally Posted By: avalon
Interesting to note the lack of autumn colour in the Poplars in Homers Youtube snow video. I would have thought Poplars in that neck of the woods would have been well coloured by now.
Great looking snow though!


avalon,

I have found this trip to be a real mixed bag Autumn colour wise. Even as far north as the Southern Highlands there was some great colour out. Even in Dural in Sydney there are pockets of deep red and gold. Just over the dam wall past the tip heading into Jindabyne there is a large pocket of poplars that are at their very best buttercup yellow. But the best display in this neck of the woods is always Berridale, and strangely enough, they have hardly started to turn. As I said a week or so ago, we just haven't had the cold yet to get the vivid autumn colours going. Until this week.
I reckon another week or fortnight will see everything at it's best.

Homer
Posted by: Simmah

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2012 00:17

Originally Posted By: Ben
Originally Posted By: Greg Sorenson
I look forward to seeing Ben's images with a corresponding damage tracking map if it's possible for him do so at some stage. The more info displayed in a concise visual manner will be helpful for those who weren't there. Love this sort of detective work!


Haha funnily enough I went for a drive after work to other locations I thought may have been affected by the track in order to do this and I think I have observed enough locations to put together a damage track of the likely tornado. It's a dodgy job on paint but you get the idea. The thicker black parts are my observation points. I have put my estimated fujita scale in terms of the damage I saw, though for the latter two locations my observations were 2 days after the event, and it could have been cleaned up. But there was still a lot of trees down on the sides of the road.


Largest

In terms of the damage photos, I'll do that tomorrow (rather, later today). Been away for easter so haven't had time to sort them out etc but have a day off tomorrow.


Great stuff Ben. Went a bit longer then i first thought. ~8km?
Posted by: Ben

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2012 00:43

Thanks for the comments guys. Yeah Simmah its a pretty long track isn't it? According to google Earth it is 9km. I have done the photos.. finally. Damage in Asqutih was certainly not linear, but at N Turramurra it was a lot more linear with trees lying in the same direction. A lot of it had been cleaned up when I got there in residential areas so I wandered into the NP behind the retirement village where the worst damage was and it was pretty destroyed!










Got about 75ish photos of the damage at my flickr account if anyone is interested.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/28009095@N05/
Posted by: core puncher

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2012 01:45

excellent work ben! some of the images do suggest linear winds closer to the burbs.. the ones in the NP though are more the shredded-funnel ate me type damage. Very similar to some of the trees i came across in the hillville, kiwarrak state forest, talawahl nature reserve and khappinghat nature reserve back in the feb 11 supercell we got here.. i went looking about after several reports from clients at ses jobs with reports of funnels etc..(still chasing up a guy with vid footage of one at old bar somewhere..)

too small and narrow of a area deep in a gully in the d72 73 pic etc for just a lil micro burst blow.. low in the f scale no doubt, had there been more shredding in the upper limbs of the trees then it would have suggested a likely low f2..
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2012 08:43

That second photo really nails it. Would have been very unpleasant to be in the path of that, even being in a dust willy willy is a bit intimidating.

Well, I think maybe I did get a touch of frost on that cold morning, Tuesday I guess. The nasturtiums are fine, but the zucchini and cucumber plants have nasty burnt areas on their leaves. I guess they're softer than tomatoes and chillis and other frost-averse plants. Cosmos aren't showing any ill-effects.
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2012 08:47

-2 with a moderate frost here in Kalkite this morning. It's still around in shaded areas and on the non sunny sides of roofs, but the majority has melted away in the warmish sun.

Homer
Posted by: Blair

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2012 08:50

Quite fresh here in Oberon it's currently overcast with regular misty showers
Posted by: FaulcoChasers

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2012 09:17

Awesome Ben, good job, thanks for sharing all the pics. My husband used to live & work up that way for most of his life so was great to see it. Quite an event eh!
Posted by: Scud

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2012 09:45

Great photos Ben and top report.

The article posted by the North Shore Times is bordering on disgraceful. How the Weather Channel meteorologist came to that conclusion is beyond me as was some of the other comments he made. "Wind Damage of 80km/h" ... he has to be kidding himself, this area see's winds that strong once or twice a year when strong westerlies push through without that sort of damage. The damage there is from winds far stronger than 80km/h. Did he look at the photos or just guess? How can a Meteorologist not look at Doppler for the event and pick up the strong low level rotation? Did he not think to himself "Hmm three areas of damage in a thin corridor that corresponds with the low level circulation on doppler over 9kms"??? He also labelled the 1991 storm as Tornado damage. Whilst I believe there is the possibility of a rain wrapped Tornado causing intense damage around some parts of the Upper North Shore, majority of the damage was caused by intense outflow winds up to possibly 200km/h. Will never forget looking out our window as the storm hit and seeing trees bending in half and snapping as the outflow hit.

I still think the BOM had a "Great Escape" moment with this storm. Had it been 2kms further south there would have been a tornado damage track damaging hundreds of homes instead of just trees in a national park. There would have been a media outcry as to why they weren't warned and why the afternoon forecast was Fine.
Posted by: The Sentinel

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2012 09:58

Agreed Scud. There is no way 80km/h winds caused the damage seen both on the news and in Ben's photos. I think it's yet another case of wind speeds at the location of the anemometer being reported, rather than wind speeds at the location where the storm was most intense. Tornado or no tonrnado, thats not 80km/h wind damage.

As you said, winds in excess of 80km/h are common in North Turramurra.

I sent NST and Weather Channel an email yesterday asking for clarification given the evidence and both have been ignored.
Posted by: Scud

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2012 10:47

I sent an email to the NST and was also ignored. Didn't think about sending one to the Weather Channel. Sounds like it will fall on deaf ears regardless.

I guess what annoyed me was people will read this and treat is as gospel. An article like this is in fact teaching people and to have such incorrect information on there is disappointing
Posted by: The Sentinel

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2012 10:54

[quote][/quote]That's exactly how I felt about it.

Next they'll be telling us it was caused by space junk. lol

I guess whenever they get emails from people like us, they just think we are trolling or trying to be a keyboard hero. I was very careful in my email to state that i wasn't trying to correct anybody, but just wanted some clarification.
Posted by: MC Thomas

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2012 11:42

There seems to be a general feeling in the media (and Australia in general) that Australia does not experience tornadoes (as discussed many times). At the same time, the news loves showing US footage. I recall the recent Dallas-Fort Worth tornadoes being described as "Massive Twisters" while they were rated around EF-2/EF-3 I believe. Strong tornadoes no doubt but not worlds apart from an F1/F2 tornado moving through an Australia suburb. I agree with Scud, this was quite a close call and it was lucky the tornado (assuming this is what we are calling it) moved through mostly National park.
Posted by: The Sentinel

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2012 17:23

They've just posted our responses
Posted by: avalon

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2012 18:20

Yes Homer, the vagaries of Autumn foliage are many and varied. Not really much happening down here adn we are almost into our peak season. That is mid april to late may.
Posted by: mattysmith

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2012 22:42

awesome stuff ben, thanks for going to all the effort. That one photo through the national park 100% confirms it for me. Seen it before a few times, nothing can cause that except a touch down. Media are hopeless, as are the BOM. No field experience with storm chasing really is telling with the bureau. I give up on them and do my own forecasting when i can. They get the fine days right... dont get me wrong.. but throw some instability into the sky and they are blindfolded and have no idea. They dont nowcast either... they pastcast.
Posted by: Blair

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/04/2012 06:43

Nice frost here in Oberon this morning with some lovely autumn fog around, some patches of grass are blisted white, whith frost also occouring on car tops and roofs of houses
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/04/2012 07:17

Blair, that is interesting that your frost is so obvious this morning, since it took me a long time this morning to confirm if there is a frost at all here. The usual places where I measure frost were all frost free, including the car, roof, grass. Then I had to look over the fence down the gully when I noticed something white in the grass, then I found one tiny frost patch on a bit of dry grass. My readings were min 4.5 screen and min 0.0 by surface reading so had I not seen the frost in the distance I would not have recorded a frost.

It is interesting how over the days since Monday the frost has worked its way down into valleys. The first night the frost was only at the tops of objects and hills, but on the last night its only in the lowest gully places.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/04/2012 09:31

Looks like it was the coldest night in Canberra so-far, -0.2 according to Wz. But it was very mild up my way, and downright warm this morning. I got quite hot watering the garden (in my pjs). No "chill" from overnight.

Definitely a lot more colour around the place, everything's yellowing up. For some reason teh things that go red have already done it.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/04/2012 09:47

G'day all - I'm back - have been without net access since last Wednesday - just when so much was going on weatherwise!!

As mentioned by others - been a few frosts about - PD like you I've been saying we've got our first frosts then remembering January and going Hmmm? Like you I now treat the recent frosts as the true indicators of the oncoming persistently cooler nights smile

On a note mentioned by Blizz and others earlier - our min forecasts have really been quite poor lately with most mornings of late being at least 2 to 4 degrees colder than forecast. This moring is a corker - min f/c 7 we got 1 - tonight is f/c for 12, I bet we get to about 6 or so if not lower. (assuming cloud or easterlies must be expected to cause it to stay wamer than recent nights)

We've had numerous forecast of 6 or 7 end up being actuals of zero to 2 or 3 it's been quite consistent the last several weeks.

Autumn colours quite well underway here - BUT there are still quite a few trees still green as well. We vary from areas with strong colour and even bare trees to others with nothing. Near my place though pretty much everything is well underway - will try to remember to snap some photos for Cloudz smile

We have not yet lit the fire (house still keeping just enough warmth) but we could easily have lit it a number of times now. Coastal relo's coming up this weekend - fire will be lit smile
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/04/2012 10:23

DaveM, Good to hear you are back. I could not believe you said that BOM forecast 12 for Saturday min that is just nuts. I am still expecting a light frost tomorrow. The cloud coming from the NW is dry and should have minimal impact, if anything will be rather cool early tomorrow as the cloud traps the inversion. Definitely would agree with you and go for 6, maybe even 4.
I have been lighting the fire all week every morning, but so far have still not lit one in the evening. As long as you take away the chill in the morning the house seems to stay warm well into the evening and then there is no need for 2 starts at least for now.

Ant, I see you too notice the red leaves going first, I find that too that they drop before yellow ones, especially on the maples. But the liquid Ambers and Chinese liquid Ambers seem to hold leaves until the middle of winter.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/04/2012 12:13

Yes, our liquid amber holds its leaves well into winter which is a nuisence as it shades the house. Nice in summer, not-so in winter. Oak trees seem to hold their leaves for quite a long time into winter, too. The roos like lying under mine, summer and winter. This morning, every exotic tree with space under it had roos lying down.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/04/2012 12:35

Quite a few Liquid Ambers hang on to the leaves a long time and yes like you I've noticed that sometimes even well into winter before they all "leave". smile
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/04/2012 16:03

Originally Posted By: DaveM
On a note mentioned by Blizz and others earlier - our min forecasts have really been quite poor lately with most mornings of late being at least 2 to 4 degrees colder than forecast. This moring is a corker - min f/c 7 we got 1 - tonight is f/c for 12, I bet we get to about 6 or so if not lower. (assuming cloud or easterlies must be expected to cause it to stay wamer than recent nights)

We've had numerous forecast of 6 or 7 end up being actuals of zero to 2 or 3 it's been quite consistent the last several weeks.



I laughed last night DaveM when I saw Graham Creed say that Cooma's minimum was going to be 6 this morning. At 7.30 last night, it was already 5.7. What in the hell were BOM thinking? They've been quite hopeless lately.

Homer
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/04/2012 16:26

Yeah - I respect Graham Creed and am surprised that he might not realise. Then again how many centres can you have strong awareness of? It's easier for us to know our own areas so well.

Bom forecast 6 degrees too high for this morning but 2 degree too low for this arvo. Altogether that's 8 degrees of error - fair bit!!

Hows Kalkite going? Enjoying the cooler drier air?
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/04/2012 16:48

Maybe it's BOM trying to justify their stance on CAGW.They really need to get their act together because there are a lot of people who rely on accurate forecasts.Graeme Creed is only reading the BOM's forecast temps
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/04/2012 16:54

I agree 100% especially in cold or hot areas where a few degrees can have a big impact.

EG for a bushwalker the difference between preparing for a 7 degree night is very different to preparing for a 1 degree night.

BOM have now changed their forecast for tonight, this morning they said tonight would be 12 which I thought crazy and I predicted around 6 - they have now joined the party and changed to 6 as well. Bit late in the day (literally) but 12 was NEVER going to be right without masses of cloud and solid NW winds - neither of those conditions anywhere in sight.

Now they've said 6 I will now go for say 3 smile Because they have been consistently forecasting a few degrees too high the last few weeks.

I know GC is going off BOM temps but my impression was he usually analyses things a bit as well - however he can't review the temp of every mentioned site he does obviously smile

Posted by: Simmah

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/04/2012 16:59

Originally Posted By: Scud
I sent an email to the NST and was also ignored. Didn't think about sending one to the Weather Channel. Sounds like it will fall on deaf ears regardless.

I guess what annoyed me was people will read this and treat is as gospel. An article like this is in fact teaching people and to have such incorrect information on there is disappointing


I've commented on the NST site too, and emailed the wxchan a similar one with the basic same reasoning as you.. if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck then its a duck damn it!

"This was a TORNADO, and yes we get them here is Aus (and they AREN'T MINI!!). Perhaps tipping the scale at a high F1 rating at times. 2 Doppler radars show sustained Rotation in the storm for 30 minutes, quite intense for 15 to 20 minutes over the Asquith and North Turramurra areas. There is a narrow damage path of nearly 9km through both these areas and national park. Just imagine if it was 2km south, there are hundreds of houses in the path in that case. Severe storms happen all the time, and can vary on what the "severe" part of the storm is. It could be 2cm+ hail, Flash Flooding Rains or Damaging winds or a combination of all 3 BUT next time something like this bears down on people, what will they say... "It looks like a Tornado, It sounds like a Tornado, but its just a severe storm so i'll just continue to do what it is I'm doing instead of seeking shelter". Its hard enough getting people to heed the current storm warnings but something like a Tornado is not to messed with."

They moderated my first bit which was "Its this kind of reporting that gets people killed, not to say the reporter was in the wrong here but the weather channel presenter should have known better"

The one to wxchan was of a similar vien, though i toned down the killed bit to "in harms way".

I've not received a reply from the BoM yet.
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/04/2012 18:09

Originally Posted By: DaveM
Now they've said 6 I will now go for say 3 smile Because they have been consistently forecasting a few degrees too high the last few weeks.


I agree with your 3 DaveM, given how clear it is tonight with the cloud not here until sunrise.
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/04/2012 18:17

Just to qualify an above comment, I wasn't laughing at Graham Creed, I was laughing at the BOM. Graham Creed is one of the best.

Homer
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 14/04/2012 09:45

Understand completely, that was the meaning of my posts as well - BOM forecasting for Bathurst seems less accurate these days than a few years ago - progress!!

Re G Creed - I always listen to his analyses very closely. He certainly to me is highly regarded.

As we don't have any "Official" weather in Bx on weekends I can go with the airport min of about 5 but when the official reading comes in on Monday or Tuesday crazy it will invariably show a slightly lower reading as it nearly always does. So maybe a 4 will eventually be the official min.

All a long way from BOM's original f/c for last night of 12
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 14/04/2012 11:55

Wow actually got the official temp today, 4 degrees. only 8 away from the original forecast.
Posted by: The Sentinel

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 14/04/2012 15:51

I ventured out to North Turramurra today to have a look for myself. I found the spot where Ben took the photo of the storm track and took some photos of my own, which I will upload later on.

There is no doubt in my mind at all now that the damage was caused by a tornado.

It's in a thin track all the way from Asquith to St Ives, just as Ben described, and looking at the damage, there is absolutely no way the damage was caused by 80km/h winds, and the damage track looks nothing like I'd expect from Microbursts, etc.
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 14/04/2012 16:26

Anyone seen Sydney's min for next Sat?

Saturday 21 AprilSummary Min -20Max 23Shower or two.Sydney areaCloudy. Isolated showers. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the morning.
Posted by: davidg

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 14/04/2012 16:28

Lol automated forecasting strikes again! Thats quite the diurnal temp range.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 14/04/2012 21:10

Originally Posted By: DaveM
Wow actually got the official temp today, 4 degrees. only 8 away from the original forecast.


Our forecast was 21, news said Canberra was 17, and I never saw anything higher than 15 on my various gadgets. Gloomy day, thick cloud but little wind. The washing didn't dry.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 16/04/2012 11:18

... but Sunday was an absolute cracker! It was hot. No wind, and the softest breeze that wafted in late arvo was downright warm. Gadget said 23c by late morning and I was down the hill chopping wood so didn't see what it got to, but I'm certain it went higher.

Today is the same, it was 19c already when I left for work. Strong sun, little to no wind, no "chill" in the air. Spectacular (and lots of yellowing leaves).
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 16/04/2012 11:41

It's quite warm in Bx today - last night seemed very mild despite 8.5 min.

Sun has plenty of sting in it. Went to Orange yesterday - lots of nice colours out and about in this region. Love this time of year. Yesterday was very mild as well.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 16/04/2012 12:28

The coming week forecast is really interesting, the rain crept in quite late, and now we have "possible showers" every day for the next 7 days. I guess they're hedging about what these two troughs will get up to and how they'll affect the inland. Should keep the icy air at bay too!

I can see a stand of poplars from my window, and they're noteably yellower than they were last week, going from the top. My oaks however haven't even started. And the silver birches are being quite weird, not sure what they're doing. Hopefully not dying.
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 16/04/2012 18:41

One of my Oaks is also still completely green, but most trees have at least begun Autumn leaves in some way. Weird about the Poplars because you only have to go a couple of Km down the road and they are Golden, but here just drab brown. I guess its that rust problem, amazing how localized it can be.
I have seen Birches die from heat and drought in hotter climates like Tamworth, but not from other things. Maybe they can also get rust.
Posted by: aslaws

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 16/04/2012 22:46

My Box Elder Maple has coloured up & lost most of its' leaves. My Pin Oak is now going its' usual apple green to red - usually pretty spectacular. The ash (or claret ash) which usually colours a dirty yellow to purple is actually colouring nicely this year. My oak tree has some brown leaves but is mostly green - very little yellow-brown yet. The liquid amber won't colour until late May.
The Box Elder Maple started colouring up in late Jan/early Feb & I thought then that autumn colours were shot but it clung on through March (while I was away in the UK).
More rain for a very sodden Blue Mountains this week - hope its stays coastal but we always get the coastal stuff so not much chance of anything but wet wet wet. Canning the mountain bike & heading out on foot has been the story of my summer (though I have enjoyed getting deep into Kedumba Country lately)
Posted by: ColdsnapIII

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 16/04/2012 23:21

Originally Posted By: avalon
Yes Homer, the vagaries of Autumn foliage are many and varied. Not really much happening down here adn we are almost into our peak season. That is mid april to late may.


Heaps happening now though Avalon.

I was driving home from Macedon station today, probably about 10 minutes after sunset, and even in that light I had to remind myself to stay on the road I was so distracted by the colours. I'm talking the full spectrum too from red through flame orange through gold to yellow.

It's just erupted pretty much overnight. I went all over the mountain yesterday and there were just isolated pockets of colour around but you could see that about 80% of the trees were right on the verge of changing.

Honour avenue and Centennial Park are looking amazing, including the ring of large poplars in the park and on the south side of the car park opposite the Mount Macedon Primary school. The pin oaks are exceptional this year. The golden elms are starting to look spectacular in the main street of Macedon as well.

The thing about Autumn is that it usually all comes together remarkably rapidly. It's a painful process from late March to mid April where it just starts to get going and then stops dead in its tracks. Next thing you know between mid April and Anzac day it goes ballistic. It happens like this almost every year.

The last several years have been very ordinary due to a number of extraordinary weather events, eg. March 2008 heatwave and Black Saturday in 2009 which pretty much destroyed the short term health of the trees in both those years so the leaves dropped early.

Then the last couple of years with La Nina led to very cloudy and humid conditions with flooding. Some trees dropped their leaves at the end of summer thanks to being underwater for periods at the time of the year when they most certainly shouldn't be. Also the general cloudiness which was exceptional in the summer and autumn of 2011 meant that conditions were inadequate for decent colour to develop.

This year, we have benefited enormously here from days and days of sunshine after a major rain event at the end of Feb and then a cool and damp March which helped save trees from summer drought stress (which occurred to an extent in Jan/Feb). It has been a very cloud free April with significantly warm days, a cold outbreak and associated extended cool period with some showers and scattered periods of cool to cold nights. These conditions allow colour to develop to its fullest potential, especially the anthocyanins.

My only worry now is that we get storms with bursts of heavy rain and/or wind hitting as the colour reaches its peak. Already signs we will see a prolonged period of showery days and possible (non severe) storms and then models have been trying to develop a cut off low that could develop into a wind event if we're not lucky.

Hopefully nothing too major will develop though.

South Eastern NSW unfortunately is going to get slammed so areas between Canberra and the Snowy Mountains that are renowned for Autumn colour could be in trouble.



Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 17/04/2012 11:30

Sounds like the higher areas are definitely in full autumn swing, but down here in Canberra, it's still pretty gradual, although those poplars I've been watching from my window have settled into yellowing, they're almost halfway down themselves now! Mt Macedon sounds absolutely amazing. We haven't had many really cold nights, that's probably hampering us. We have a few, then it goes back to mild, like it is now.

I rather hope you're right about SE NSW being hammered with rain! It's settled back into the usual dry pattern, and a nice soaking would be useful. I'll take rain over colourful leaves. All the red things coloured up on cue and the ones near my place are halfway through dropping their leaves now. A very exposed european elm is just about leafless. The oaks are totally ignoring the season, still thickly-leaved and firmly dark green. The roos love them for sleeping under.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 19/04/2012 13:34

Starting to look like April will be a warmish month for Bathurst. Mins slightly above avge but max a good 2 degrees over. Rain woeful at 5mm (of which 3 was early in the month).

To get to avge temps will need very cold conditions next week. We will prob be well under avge for rain.
Posted by: GrizzlyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 19/04/2012 14:23

Not as bad here Dave, currently +1.3 mean anomally. Next weeks colder weather will knock that back to near zero.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 20/04/2012 09:07

yeah, that cool-down is looking pretty definite. Darn! The colouring is in full swing now (didn't take long), plenty of yellow and red around. The ornamental pear trees at the airport are turning that rich red, meanwhile the yellow trees next to them are almost leafless now. My Chinese Elms are just starting to colour a bit.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 20/04/2012 10:03

Anomalies for Canterbury AWS are around the +1C mark for both max and min which will probably be the end result- this weekend's warm will be cancelled out by next week's cool. Bear in mind this station has only been recording since 1995, so it has a warm bias. All in all a pretty warm month, Alice Springs (which I regard as the barometer of the general climate) is also running about 2C above average, though it had a record warm start to the month so it's been a little cooler of late.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 20/04/2012 11:39

The comment re Alice very interesting indeed SB given (as you say) how hot it was earlier this month. One of my brothers was up there in the midst of it and he was not happy at how extreme the heat was for the time, and he is more accepting of heat than me that's for sure smile

After months of being below average, Bx will surely end up as warmer this month despite next weeks cool down.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 21/04/2012 21:30

The North Shore Times now says that the event on Easter Sunday may have been a tornado after all: North Turramurra storm damage ``quite likely'' to have been tornado, radar shows

Posters in this thread seem to have been heard. And no mention of a 'mini tornado', although the photo with the story is captioned 'Damage caused by a freak weather event'. Along with 'Mini Tornado', the term 'freak storm' should be banished from the lexicon. It's nature, not a freak.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 21/04/2012 21:58

Although there has not been much cooling on the coast so far, Autumn is starting to make its presence felt on the North Shore. Here are some Liquid Amber trees in Little Digger Park, Roseville:


Autumn 20120421 Little Digger by Stevevii77, on Flickr

Little Digger Park is a pocket-handkerchief-sized piece of open space next to a busy road, a jewel that is probably not appreciated as much as it should be.
Posted by: Scud

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 22/04/2012 10:18

I'm really happy to see the NST has at least listened, done a bit more investigation work into this and run another story correcting the earlier one. Still amazed someone from the Weather Channel came out with those comments before. Do they actually have meteorologists there?
Posted by: avalon

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 22/04/2012 17:50

Lovely autumn colour at Mount Macedon, really starting to fire up down here.

http://img560.imageshack.us/img560/3317/p1010064ap.jpg
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 22/04/2012 22:03

Nice photo avalon. You could've said 'lovely autumn colour in *insert any central European country here*' and I would've been none the wiser. Well, apart from the sign in English and that it's Spring over there atm, but you get the gist, lol.

I miss the autumn colour displays on the tablelands/highlands. I don't think South West Rocks has any deciduous trees, none come to mind, unless you include the Jacaranda and the Indian Coral Tree? There's probably a couple of other deciduous trees about, most likely hidden in someone's backyard out of plain sight. I will take extra notice while I'm out and about over the next few weeks.
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 23/04/2012 00:09

Took the family to Mayfield Garden today at Oberon.
My observations are as follows:

* Autumn colours were superb, even allowing for the fact that it was a completely overcast day.
* Went via Jenolan Caves. Haven't been there for over 20 years and had forgotten how truly spectacular the drive was, even though Marge and I had similar memories.
* I've NEVER been to Oberon. The Oberon Plateau is truly a spectacular part of Australia and after all the rain this year, is looking at a guess as good as it has in a long time. Real Estate will tell you that the Southern Highlands is the place to be but fair dinkum, what I saw today just blew be away. It was truly beautiful.
* I would live there anyday. Rolling green countryside that is rugged in it's landform with views a plenty.
* Mayfield Garden is a hidden GEM. Not heavily promoted as it is a private garden with quite private owners, it is the best garden I have seen in Australia by far, and there is so much more to come. I'd encourage anyone with a chance, to visit. At the moment, it's only open for 6 weekends a year - 3 in Autumn and three in Spring. But there are big plans afoot for a bigger commercial enterprise.
* After 20 years, the GWH still sucks heading back to Sydney on a Sunday evening.

If I get a chance, I'll post a few photos. I haven't even looked at them yet myself. It was a most enjoyable day, and I'm rather tired (7 hrs driving).

Homer
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 24/04/2012 09:22

Homer - you have discovered why there are a few Oberon lovers in our community. Once you turn off at Hartley you start climbing into wonderland. That drive to the caves really is stunning in scenery. The caves themselves are an amazing place to wander around even if you don't go "inside" the mountain.

The OP is ALMOST always green rather than brown. It is easily one of the most drought proof areas in NSW. Every time I climb the Oberon Mt on the Bathurst Rd I say the same thing - I want to live up here. smile

Mayfield is great and getting better every year - it is very much an evolving thing which is great, every time you go there it is better. Glad you enjoyed our part of the world.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 24/04/2012 12:35

I'm astonished that a cool climate lover living in Sydney has never been to Oberon shocked. I'm also astonished that you took the GWH on a Sunday- BIG no no (especially for someone living at Dural).

Planning to go up there myself on Saturday to see a bit of real autumn colour, but probably won't go past Blizzheath.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 24/04/2012 12:43

Homer - Bells Line is the only way as far as I'm concerned. Can be slow if a timid driver is about but no traffic lights. Flick across the causeway from Bell to Mt Vic.

The Sunday crush back towards Sydney is nasty. I still think I'd go Bells - ESPECIALLY for Dural. smile
Posted by: bigwilly

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 24/04/2012 12:49

From Oberon your best bet to access the NW of Sydney would surely be Bells Line would it not? Even if the distance is greater, the higher average speed and the more pleasurable drive would surely make it the choice route?
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 24/04/2012 15:57

Seems like the models have gone off the idea of a decent cold change for the weekend, however OCF is indicating another warm up in the first few days of May with a 26c next Wednesday. Even Alice is going to be flirting with 30c again, which for May will be about 5c above.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 24/04/2012 16:08

Yes, we seem to be in a pattern of generally above average temperatures with the odd good cold front every now and then. This is what I expected given that we're coming out of La Nina, warm SSTs mean just a bit of sun and the continent heats up easily. At least nights look to be cooling off once and for all, nothing above 13C for Canterbury on that OCF run. Hopefully these positive anomalies go away by late June/early July.
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 24/04/2012 16:16

Hi everyone.

For us Dural people, it's a bit of a double edged sword these days.
Since the M7 opened, it's certainly quickest to go New Line Rd/Pennant Hills Rd/M2/M7 to get to the mountains.
I toyed with the fact on the way home to do the Darling Causeway, and had to make an executive decision as Marge, Bart and Lisa were all asleep. I've been caught pretty badly before at North Richmond, Richmond and Windsor, so thought I'd take the motorway route home instead.
I just didn't think it could be still as bad as it was.
What gave me the [censored] was that they've been doing the GWH up for 15 years. The M7 was built in 3. What the hell is taking so long??
It was a tough choice, and I made the wrong one. I'll know next time.

As I said, Dave M, the gardens were brilliant, and I strongly encourage anyone who has never seen them to get there this weekend as it's the last open garden 'till Spring.
SB, I've been on snow chases before up to the Blue Mountains and Central Tablelands, but never ventured to Oberon. Stange as it sounds, that's the case. I'll certainly be heading there in future.

Homer
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 24/04/2012 16:57

Believe me, the GWH is worse than ever. As for why it's taking so long, remember the GWH is a working road and the M7 was a new road: a lot easier to do construction when there's nobody on it! There's also limited room to work with in the BMs. Bigwilly would be in the best position to answer this question since I believe he's a civil engineer by profession who specialises in road construction.
Posted by: avalon

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 24/04/2012 18:21

The GWH is a total mystery to me. When i moved to Wentworth Falls in 1990 (before most of the upgrades) it used to take me 1.5 hours to get to my good friends place in Maroubra. I did that trip many many many times. Now (after years of upgrades and general devastation all along the GWH)you would be lucky to get to Sydney CBD in two hours. How can that be? Population growth i spose. I know the BM feels much more crowded to me, than it did years ago.

Homer, that garden at Oberon sounds great. I hadnt really heard too much about it and i certainly didnt know it was on such a grand scale. Some people really get into it dont they. There is another really amazing garden being developed in Leura, it is called "The Braes" It is down at the southern end of Grose Street. Well worth a visit if it is open.An interesting one to return to i would think,a lot of development there.
Posted by: Grant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 25/04/2012 01:18

Wow from the reports it sounds like I did the right thing for once leaving the BM's last Sunday. I departed Blackheath just before 10am (was gonna take in some more BM sights but was a little tired after rising at 0430 for my early photo shoot) & had no probs getting to the M4 & onto the M7. I had a feeling traffic would build going into Sydney during the afternoon but after travelling down the mountains when I did, I thought I had left too early for nothing.

Going up the mountains on Friday afternoon with the road works & traffic, well that was another story lol. At least the slow trip up allowed me to take in the changing colours of the trees as elevation increased, that was nice.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 26/04/2012 09:06

One thing this cold change did was knock stacks of leaves off deciduous trees in my yard and surrounds - on some trees that had turned/turning I would say there was a rapid sort of 80% knock off in one day. Changed the view significantly in some areas dramatically.
Posted by: avalon

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/05/2012 10:47

How is the autumn foliage going up there? Ours down here is in full swing now, I was wondering whether there is still a good display up that way. My whole house is diffused with a golden glow from the autumn foliage on the two Lindens outside in the yard, its great.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/05/2012 11:06

G'day Avalon - a lot of trees right into it but also a lot that are finished now in Bathurst.

The windy cold change a couple of weeks ago knowcked heaps of foliage off many trees. We are well on the downhill slide now with so many trees already over and out. Still nice though with areas of trees that are later.

My silver birch is thoroughly confused, it started in Mid Feb then has stopped and restarted several times since - it still has a big percentage of cover when I was sure it would be gone by now. Cold change next weekend may finish it off. We've had stacks of frost (averaging approx zero o/n for May) so anything that hasn't got the message yet is in trouble. smile
Posted by: avalon

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/05/2012 11:20

Thats funny,davem. We havent had the frost yet, but then we never get it like you guys. Its too windy and grey and crap down here for a decent frost!
I used to think of April as the foliage month but to me at least, its May that is the month now.
We are looking at a decent cold change this weekend, maybe we will get a bit of frost after that.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/05/2012 22:56

My silver birches are all over the place, too. The several cold snaps really got to them. The ones with leaves are now thoroughly yellow. Looking down from my place, most trees are now well into it, putting on a real show. Chinese Elms haven't noticed the change at all though, ditto the oaks. Manchurian Pear is really going to town, it's like a tequila sunrise, the top half is various shades of orange and red, bottom is still green. Spectacular.

We've had quite a few frosts, it feels a bit early to be this "into" winter actually. I still have most of my nasturtiums, but you can really see where the cold air flows down by the ones that have liquidised.

Garlic crop is going ballisitic, only planted out the little cloves 2 weeks ago, and I have a vast matrix of garlic shoots. If you haven't planted yours yet, now's the time! Visit the F & V sellers, and rummage through the garlic looking for ones that have little green shoots. Means they're fertile and good to go. (The Chinese stuff is soaked in, methyl bromide? and is dead, won't grow). I got most of mine from Aldi and Coles, plus some fancy organic stuff from Allsun farm.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/05/2012 23:15

Autumn foliage is peaking now in and around Sydney. Here is a view along Mountain Lagoon Road (about 550m above sea level) in the lower Blue Mountains the other day:


Autumn Display, Mountain lagoon by Stevevii77, on Flickr

According to the forecast, Sydney is about to enter a short Indian summer, better than most of the real summer - 26 degrees maximum, cooling down at night, low humidity, no scud and no barrelling North-Easterly or Southerly.
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/05/2012 23:33

26c in Sydney? damn. That's not bad. Looking at the synoptic, the incoming front pushing the hot weather looks to be more southerly than sydney but evidently not.

That's a pretty picture, looks like another country!
Posted by: Ron W at Walcha

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/05/2012 06:39

Quite strange here this morning with Armidale Airport reading 7.2 while we are on -3.8, Salisbury Plains -3.4 and Glen Airport -1.2.Heavy frost with it.
Posted by: ColdsnapIII

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/05/2012 23:31

Funny now that they play AFL in Canberra you get the backdrop of the Autumn colour on the television with the game on in the foreground. A first for AFL coverage.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 23/05/2012 11:17

I think Autumn has almost buggered off for this area - been more like winter. smile
Posted by: Blizzard

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 23/05/2012 11:32

Apart from the chilly nights (radiative cooling, lack of any frontal weather) its been above average here, by 2C for maximums so far (Katoomba) and a touch below average for minimums. Its basically been sunny for weeks and weeks here, no 'weather' at all really. Not complaining though, always nice to have a burst of mild weather before winter.

I just had a look at Bathurst AP, 1.2mm for this month, that is amazingly dry. Its not surprising we are getting some colder minimums, with the lack of weather in May thus far. Armidale is very dry too. Perfect for radiative cooling.

About to change though.
Posted by: DerekHV

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 27/05/2012 09:13

Originally Posted By: Ron W at Walcha
Quite strange here this morning with Armidale Airport reading 7.2 while we are on -3.8, Salisbury Plains -3.4 and Glen Airport -1.2.Heavy frost with it.


That is strange, Armidale Airport is on the high plateau - but I believe the weather station was moved there deliberately after talking to a local - so they wouldn't have the notoriety of the lowest temp in the state.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 27/05/2012 09:51

Originally Posted By: DerekHV
Originally Posted By: Ron W at Walcha
Quite strange here this morning with Armidale Airport reading 7.2 while we are on -3.8, Salisbury Plains -3.4 and Glen Airport -1.2.Heavy frost with it.


That is strange, Armidale Airport is on the high plateau - but I believe the weather station was moved there deliberately after talking to a local - so they wouldn't have the notoriety of the lowest temp in the state.

I don't believe that is quite right. The original BOM weather station in Armidale was located near the CBD at the Radio Station (2AD). This site was eventually closed in June 1997 because the site was not giving accurate readings due to the buildings that surrounded much of it, leading to readings at the site being warmer than they really were in reality. In June 1997, a weather station was opened at the 'Tree Group Nursery' site, which gave readings a bit cooler, more representative of the rest of Armidale (except the higher parts).

The AWS at Armidale Airport was opened in 1993. Most AWS's tend to be located at either airports or research stations. Probably because sites are unlikely to become compromised at an airport and are clear of obstructions that may affect wind etc. Unfortunately, being on a plateau elevated above the majority of the city, it is nearly always warmer at night than the rest of Armidale (and usually slightly cooler during the day)

When Armidale has its 'moment of glory' as the coldest in the state, it is nearly always a reading from 'Tree Group Nursery' site. If it wasn't for Woolbrook and Glen Innes Airport, Armidale would feature more often than it does.

You can see the difference between the three sites just by looking at their records:
Armidale Radio Station (Closed): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_056002_All.shtml
Armidale Tree Group Nursery (Open): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_056037_All.shtml
Armidale Airport AWS (Open): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_056238_All.shtml

PeterB would probably know the details about it all.
Posted by: DerekHV

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 27/05/2012 10:32

Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Originally Posted By: DerekHV
Originally Posted By: Ron W at Walcha
Quite strange here this morning with Armidale Airport reading 7.2 while we are on -3.8, Salisbury Plains -3.4 and Glen Airport -1.2.Heavy frost with it.


That is strange, Armidale Airport is on the high plateau - but I believe the weather station was moved there deliberately after talking to a local - so they wouldn't have the notoriety of the lowest temp in the state.

I don't believe that is quite right. The original BOM weather station in Armidale was located near the CBD at the Radio Station (2AD). This site was eventually closed in June 1997 because the site was not giving accurate readings due to the buildings that surrounded much of it, leading to readings at the site being warmer than they really were in reality. In June 1997, a weather station was opened at the 'Tree Group Nursery' site, which gave readings a bit cooler, more representative of the rest of Armidale (except the higher parts).

The AWS at Armidale Airport was opened in 1993. Most AWS's tend to be located at either airports or research stations. Probably because sites are unlikely to become compromised at an airport and are clear of obstructions that may affect wind etc. Unfortunately, being on a plateau elevated above the majority of the city, it is nearly always warmer at night than the rest of Armidale (and usually slightly cooler during the day)

When Armidale has its 'moment of glory' as the coldest in the state, it is nearly always a reading from 'Tree Group Nursery' site. If it wasn't for Woolbrook and Glen Innes Airport, Armidale would feature more often than it does.

You can see the difference between the three sites just by looking at their records:
Armidale Radio Station (Closed): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_056002_All.shtml
Armidale Tree Group Nursery (Open): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_056037_All.shtml
Armidale Airport AWS (Open): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_056238_All.shtml

PeterB would probably know the details about it all.


You are probably correct with respect to Airports, as they are relatively low maintenance.
In the same way that many coastal locations record temperatures on an ocean headland or lighthouse (including your own) - which snuffs out the very high temps that skew the mean.
It is very interesting to note that Walcha itself no longer has an active weather station!
No offense the OP, but I am sure this would also feature very strongly in the lowest state temp stakes , esp with a record low of -12.8C!
Posted by: ant

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 29/05/2012 14:12

Weatherzone gets a little story into the Canberra Times, about how May really WAS quite cold.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/coldest-may-in-51-years-20120529-1zgcr.html
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 02/03/2015 23:52

Is it worth reviving this 3 year old thread?

I'll post here in the next few weeks if I see or experience anything 'Autumnal', but there won't be much in Sydney in the next few weeks apart from the rapidly shortening days. Each day is now over 2 minutes shorter than the previous at 34 deg South.

There may be some minima in the low teens. Nights with 20+ minima should now be uncommon, in fact it's 19.5 at OH as I type. However, mid 30 maxima are still possible for another few weeks, especially away from the coast. Trees won't start turning for another month.

In Australia, the convention is that Autumn began on Sunday, but some hold to the convention that it starts on the equinox (Saturday, 21 March 2015 at 9:45 AM AEDT). Of course seasons are just social constructs. The weather will just do what it does in response to the laws of physics and the laws of chance/chaos.
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/03/2015 00:06

You can certainly feel and smell the change in the air. On sat night cycling home from Soundwave, there was some patchy fog pretty much at the stroke of Autumn (shortly after midnight) despite the hot humid conditions during the day, so once again mother nature knows her timing.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/03/2015 07:47

Originally Posted By: Steve777
Is it worth reviving this 3 year old thread?


Yes I believe it is worth reviving this thread. LRH, how was Soundwave? I was going to go to it with some friends but didn't have enough money. Went on that bike ride instead so not all is lost. smile

Feels pretty Autumnal here again with another fresh and mostly sunny morning. Winds should turn North Easterly later on.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/03/2015 09:06

It looks autumnal around here with many trees turning (some quite a lot already). I suspect the dry conditions (pre last week) may have something to do with it as well.

Temp wise out here, the days are really holding VERY firmly high. Nights finally showing a small tendency to cool off a bit more. Another fortnight should see a noticeable change here with evening and night temps.

Already been quite foggy/misty on a number of nights.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/03/2015 12:59

Yes funnily enough some autumn feel on the calendar date this time round with the strong front and storms, though it will only be a tease for coastal districts. Mind you, Ceduna which is further north than Sydney is in full autumn mode this week, though they have the benefit of a nice cool ocean and a favourable synoptic setup.

Re. the 20C+ nights, still a fair few in the forecast for this location and even more at Obs Hill. Places a little more shielded from coastal influence at night such as Canterbury AWS are cooling off though.

I still think the equinoxes and the solstices are the big turning points in terms of general patterns, particularly the equinoxes as the rate of change in daylength is the greatest as pointed out by Steve. In recent times, this hasn't been as true for the spring equinox with significant warming occurring much earlier, though true hot days (>32C) are uncommon before late September in Sydney.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/03/2015 13:34

Even though we have a forecast of 29 degrees today, lately the mornings are actually quite pleasant and it takes all day to steadily get to the max. As against the coast where the max can be hit early then moderated later via the sea breeze.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/03/2015 13:44

Median temps for summer 2014-2015 in my location have gone like this. I'll put the (simple) average daily minimum/maximum in brackets to compare.

December:21.2C (17.7/25.9)
January: 22.5C (19.1/27.2)
February:22.1C (19.2/26.0)

Of note, even though Feb's averages were quite a bit cooler than Jan's, the mean 24 hour temp was almost the same. The corollary is that warmth was moderate but consistent in Feb, whereas Jan had more hot days which spiked the averages. I prefer the median temp sampled over each obs in the month to gauge how the month has really gone. For comparison, November's median was exactly 20C, about a degree above average but still cooler than summer proper.

I expect the March median temp to come in similar to December, unless we get a prolonged warm or cool spell.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/03/2015 15:29

It was a very autumnal day here today. Lovely, clear and sunny until just in the last hour or so.

When I walked out from period 2 into recess, I was very surprised when I felt not humid air, but a dry and mild breeze from the west. The sun looked so much brighter than usual and the air quality was terrific- A real autumnal feel for sure. smile Then about 12pm or so the NEer came wandering in.

I walked out of school at 2:40 and was very surprised to see lots of dark mid-level altocumulus. I wondered where this was coming from because it almost looks like an anvil but there's no storms. It even sprinkled for about 5 minutes at around 3pm. Where is this cloud coming from? Is it like the tail end of a cold front or somethin?
Posted by: EddyG

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/03/2015 15:45

It was very autumnal early this morning, but soon become a mild early spring day which I reckon will cool of real quick once the sun goes down.
The BOM are going for chance of storms tomorrow for this area, be interesting to see if that remains in the next update at 4.30pm.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/03/2015 17:01

Looks stormy here but not really going to do anything much.

Quite heavy atmosphere and tennis will be sweaty and hot tonight!! smile

Warm night (about 16) compared to recent nights of 10 to 14 degrees. Sure I'll survive.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 04/03/2015 09:31

My local florist proudly proclaims (on a chalkboard) that "autumn has arrived". So tempted to rub it out smile.

A 16C morning was what we had yesterday and it felt heavenly compared to the 20C+ nights we've been having. Back to 20C+ this morning again as expected, though with the help of cloud.
Posted by: ozthunder

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 05/03/2015 11:00

Originally Posted By: Sea-Mist
[quote=Steve777] how was Soundwave?


I know it is off topic, and was not asked direct to me.

Ministry "blew everything else off stage" as far as I was concerned.

SlipKnot were the surprise band for this 58 year old, much, much better than I ever expected.

Honourable mentions to Exodus, Judas Priest, Vandals.

King Parrot were simply scary.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 05/03/2015 19:17

Cheers for your response Michael. smile My friend actually said SlipKnot was good as well. You may have even seen some of my friends while you were there.

Were there many teens at Soundwave?? Probs not, I assume most were at GoodLife.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2015 08:51

Definitely Autumn out here this morning. About 4.7 at the airport this morning. Me toesies are chilly in the office. smile
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2015 11:18

Give everyone a big tip - that breeze outside today is FRESH, it's almost cold after the heat we've had of late. Big shock to the system, but I like it. smile

People are commenting on the fact that it feels COLD today. Even we around here need to acclimatise to cooler conditions as Autumn rolls along. smile
Posted by: EddyG

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2015 11:36

Yes DaveM, that Northwest breeze is fresh and it's certainly not pushing the temp up like it normally does, currently 24c!!
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2015 12:25

Our breeze is southerly and temp not quite 20 yet (close though). Much cooler than I anticipated.

Looks like our weekend will be a (slight) bit cooler than forecast a couple of days ago, now should stay under 30. However I will be in Narrabri tomorrow arvo - it will be well above 30 up there.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2015 13:52

A beautiful day in Sydney. Clear skies, low humidity and light winds. After a cool night (low teens away from the coast - a sign of things to come) it's climbed to 27-28 across Sydney, with maybe another degree or so to go.

I'd like to replace all those marine layer days we get in Summer - overcast, but with little or no rain - with days like this.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2015 16:19

Originally Posted By: Steve777

I'd like to replace all those marine layer days we get in Summer - overcast, but with little or no rain - with days like this.


I second this comment Steve777. Totally agree!
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/03/2015 17:04

I don't think it's been mentioned yet- both Camden and Campbelltown dropped below 10C last night for the first time in 2015. That's definitely earlier than usual but I think nights will be well above normal in general given the humidity and warmth still around.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 07/03/2015 11:03

About 5 or 6 again here this morning, still only about 19 but feels much warmer in the sun.

The nights will warm again now but will mostly hover around 12 or 13 for a few days. That's quite nice. smile
Posted by: Stormy3

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 07/03/2015 18:04

A friend of my cousin who came to live in Australia not long ago from the Philippines told me the sun down here has a lot more burn than up there,she said it feels hotter and you can feel it burning you.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2015 14:08

That perception would be due to a combination of a few things I guess- better air quality, ozone deficiency and light winds (at least in Cessnock). The Philippines is a pretty wet and cloudy place anyway, especially in their high sun season.

Current models are trying to introduce some autumn into our part of NSW, hopefully this week will be the last with high heat around (925 hPa temps in excess of 25C).
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2015 14:16

Certainly looking forward to some daytime cooling. Nights at least slightly cooler out here now. Should struggle to have nights warmer than 15 now.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2015 15:36

I agree with you two. I too want to have cooler weather, today was a bit too hot and humid- back into summer territory for sure.

I swear my body knows when it is Autumn because it seems to start tolerating cooler temps better and warmer temps worse. For example I would have easily been able to tolerate today's weather in summer. I dunno, maybe it's my mindset too? smile

Also I saw a fair bit of fog around here this morning in the lower parts of the area which was pretty cool. Haven't seen that in a while. And then the sun rose and it looked like a pink moon!! It was so awesome. Have any of you guys seen that before?
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2015 15:52

Lots of bushfire smoke around the place SM, the autumn burns have started already. The sky is still filthy up here due to the very light winds and hot airmass.

Fog is definitely an autumn thing on the coast, we've seen a couple of mornings with fog/mist over the past week, so another tick towards a change of season. Today is a reminder that we're no quite there yet, though.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2015 16:07

Yeah I thought smelt smoke this morning around 10am with the light NW breeze. NEer this afternoon seems to be doing a pretty good job at keeping the smoke smell away. The haze in the sky is still noticeable though.
Posted by: mkeene(pingtang)

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2015 17:01

Pretty decent day here in Nowra. We got to about 34c with westerly winds at times, and dew points dropping to as low as 3c. Not even a cloud in sight.
Posted by: EddyG

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2015 17:34

Whilst driving down to Canberra, once I past Sydney into the southern highlands, the air is so clean and clear, could literally see for miles and as MK mentioned not a cloud to be seen.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2015 18:02

You officially living at Canberra now Eddy? Yeah you had a great day pingtang, I wasn't quite as lucky. We had the NEer could quite early. Almost got to 30C but because of the NEer it was also humid and therefore just a tad uncomfortable.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2015 18:35

Originally Posted By: EddyG
Whilst driving down to Canberra, once I past Sydney into the southern highlands, the air is so clean and clear, could literally see for miles and as MK mentioned not a cloud to be seen.


Yeah, you can't half tell the difference in air quality as you ascend Catherine Hill! Although, it's magnified at the moment due to all the HRs. Even more depressing travelling the other way, looking down on the foul haze of the Sydney Basin. One day I will live on the Tablelands. The air is usually quite clean as you head south of Gerringong too.
Posted by: EddyG

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/03/2015 21:45

Yes SM, I'm here for a week, back home next Monday night for 3 days and then back in Canberra and so on!!

Yeah DB air quality back home is generally pretty good, but down this neck of the woods it's just amazingly clear, pure blonde sort of stuff!! Lol!! This morning we had a light fog that burned off as I was leaving, but the smell of smoke was in the air. Gee if I was 20ks or so out of Canberra tonight the stars would be burning so bright, be a good night for star trails!
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/03/2015 17:25

Autumn has not arrived, but maybe today marks the end of a warm cycle, with tomorrow and the coming week looking cooler for Sydney and nearby coastal areas.

For example, Parramatta for March to date is tracking min max of 17.3 to 29.0 (assuming today's max was about 28), for a daily mean of 23.2. Going by the forecast, the average for the coming week will be about 16 to 25 (20.5), which will be noticeably cooler.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/03/2015 17:34

Looks like we will get that last burst of heat directly before the equinox though. That TC in WA might be the culprit.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/03/2015 09:19

Yes we have a 30 in our forecast for about Thursday next week!!!!!

The heat just WILL NOT LET GO out here!! frown

Our nights though definitely cooling a bit now, 30 degree temps will very soon become a memory. I reckon next Thursday will be the last for the season. smile

The nights clearly tell us though that Autumn is well under way in at least some fashion out here. The trees definitely believe it's Autumn, only the days are buggered up. smile

Looking forward to the Equinox smile

If we build it they will come. smile
Posted by: EddyG

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/03/2015 09:27

It certainly feels like autumn today in Canberra this morning, cool and cloudy.

Yesterday I got to experience the easterly breeze, came in right on 6pm and I nearly fell over with how cool it became, I reckon the temp dropped by a 7 or 8 degrees in very short time!!
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/03/2015 09:34

Yes, you have a whole new set of things to adjust to down there. smile

First thing is where the bulk of you rain comes from. smile Look west not east smile

Your first frost only around a month away, often arrives by about Anzac Day. smile

As you've discovered, the "sea breeze" arrives a little later there. smile

When I lived in Adaminaby that breeze would come in around 5 or 6 o'clock almost every arvo. It would hit Cooma airport and Cooma though about 2.30 or 3 in the warmer months.

The cool air should slip down the lungs with less thickness than at the coast. smile Soon you will be noticing the humidity when you head back to the coast, then you're doomed to love the inland. smile
Posted by: EddyG

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/03/2015 09:56

The one thing that I have obviously noticed is the low humidity, but this low humidity dries the skin. I used to drink close to 2 litres of water a day back home, but down here I reckon I'm close 4 litres and not to mention I'm going through chapsticks, like no tomorrow to keep the lips from cracking!!

Despite all that it has been quite comfortable so far believe it or not!! smile
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 13/03/2015 10:17

The skin should settle down after a couple of weeks. smile

Your clothes will be more free moving and not sticky (unless it's a stormy day).

Chapsticks, go for it. My wife always into them, not a problem I have unless it's really windy. However you are out in the sun much more than I am.

Water is good for you anyhow, drink up smile Think of all the extra flushing the kidneys will get, keep em cleaner. smile

I reckon you will enjoy it a lot once you adjust, most people I know who have made the change come to prefer the inland climate. smile
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 14/03/2015 09:39

Yeah I hope you have/having fun in Canberra. One of my mates moved to Canberra at the end of last year. I would like to experience the inland climate for a long period of time- I think I would enjoy it more than the coastal humidity.

Just think in winter Eddy, the weather will be so much more interesting. You'll get thick frosts, some morning fogs that may last until the afternoon. I reckon you'll love it.

Anyway, we've had some pretty cold mornings around the place.

Cooma and Bombala got down to 2.4 and 2.5C respectively which were the coldest in the state apart from Perisher which hit a low of -0.2C. A few 3C mins were recorded at sea level in Victoria.
Posted by: Dr Philosophy

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 14/03/2015 10:38

Like DB & SM, I too would love to experience living in the tablelands, both for climatic & lifestyle reasons. I guess the one small problem is that as soon as I settle down & get acclimatised to the tablelands' climate, I would have trouble on moving back to Sydney or any coastal region of NSW, not that I would be wanting to do that afterwards anyway. wink

As DaveM mentioned in another thread, the Southern Highlands would be an excellent spot to live in, where it's fairly close to the coast but is high enough to keep the minimum temps & humidity down. As far as employment opportunities within a tablelands' climate are concerned, Canberra would be the best place to live, where it's still relatively close to the coast compared to Bathurst or even the Blue Mountains (at least as far as travelling times are concerned for the latter).
Posted by: EddyG

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 14/03/2015 10:40

Yes SM, I'm so far enjoying Canberra, easy sleeping weather at night. Today is just the perfect autumn day, warm and reasonably clear skies, should reach the forecasted top of 26c.

Tonight there is a big fireworks display on the lake, any Canberrians or anyone else would like tell where the best vantage points are??
Posted by: Stormy3

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 14/03/2015 12:47

Higgins Storm Chasing VANUATU Early footage coming out from Port Vila of the destruction from TC PAM CAT 5.
http://youtu.be/wlHnPpBVmnM
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 14/03/2015 12:58

Far out that's nasty. Poor guys. frown Thanks for sharing Stormy. Looks like NZ could be in for some nasty weather too..

It's a reasonably clear day here too but it's not overly warm. Sitting a temp of 23C atm.
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 14/03/2015 20:12

Today had a nice early autumnal feel to it. Cool morning. Not too hot during the day. It was a Goldilocks day. Just right.

Homer
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 15/03/2015 00:36

Yeah it was indeed a beautiful and mild day with a slightly chilly NEer, which is now being followed by another pleasantly cool but surprisingly breezy night.

Windy with showers forecast for tomorrow which is hard to believe when it's cool and clear now.

Anyway I'm eyeing off the heat potential in a few days like a hawk atm. Not because I'm looking forward to it (unless I get dry heat) but because it is rather unusual to get such heat so late in the season. Will certainly be thinking about making a thread in a couple days if this looks like it will eventuate.

Dr Philosophy- Yes the only problem about living on the tablelands could be the lack of jobs unless you lived in Canberra (as you suggested). Then again Wollongong isn't the best for employment opportunities either. This area has one of the worst youth unemployment rates in the state because of the lack of jobs.

Posted by: Wild Wassa

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 15/03/2015 00:49

A bloke from the US East Coast came to visit a while back. Previously he had lived in the Northern Rivers Region of NSW, for a few years. Before returning to the US.

He said something that sums up Canberra's humidity, described better than I can ... Canberra is scary dry.

Too true.

Warren.
Posted by: Dr Philosophy

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 15/03/2015 09:27

Originally Posted By: Sea-Mist
Dr Philosophy- Yes the only problem about living on the tablelands could be the lack of jobs unless you lived in Canberra (as you suggested).


Yes, I do admit that it's a concern, hence why I specifically mentioned Canberra as a 'more realistic' place to live within a tablelands climate. I certainly wouldn't mind living there myself. smile

Originally Posted By: Sea-Mist
Then again Wollongong isn't the best for employment opportunities either. This area has one of the worst youth unemployment rates in the state because of the lack of jobs.


Off-Topic, that would explain why quite a lot of people in Wollongong commute to Sydney for work on a daily basis. I personally wouldn't mind living in Wollongong either, especially in the northern suburbs from Bulli/Thirroul northwards, where it's very expensive to buy property there.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 15/03/2015 10:12

Regarding your last paragraph- Yeah heaps of people down here commute to Sydney for work. I live in a southern suburb of Wollongong and there are still a fair few that commute to Sydney (mainly southern Sydney).

This is a nice place to live with a relatively nice climate, escarpment backdrop, many beaches and there's just a lot to do in general here. Also public transport is great. Interesting about your preference to live in the northern suburbs. If there was anywhere I'd want to live down here it would the southern suburbs such as Kiama Downs, Kiama, Gerringong and Gerroa

With lack of jobs, as you may or may not know, I'm 16 years old and I'm concerned that I may have to move in order to find a decent job. I hope not though as I do like this area.
Posted by: Dr Philosophy

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 15/03/2015 10:21

Originally Posted By: Sea-Mist
Interesting about your preference to live in the northern suburbs. If there was anywhere I'd want to live down here it would the southern suburbs such as Kiama Downs, Kiama, Gerringong and Gerroa


Those are my favourite places to live in the Illawarra region as well, although it's much further away from Sydney for a daily commute, hence why I would prefer to live in the northern suburbs.

Coming from the Campbelltown area myself, whilst I would prefer to live in a tablelands climate, moving down to the Illawarra/South Coast would still be a nice change for me, where the summers are cooler thanks to the sea breezes.
Posted by: EddyG

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 15/03/2015 21:19

Originally Posted By: Wild Wassa

Canberra is scary dry.

Too true.

Warren.


Couldn't agree more, everything looks dry atm, tinder dry, would hate to see a stray cigarette bud being thrown from some irresponsible DH!!!

All that aside I'm really enjoying it here. The fireworks display last night was absolute first class!! Best fireworks I've seen to date.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 15/03/2015 21:42

Although the last couple of days have been a bit cooler in Sydney, the weather still says it's Summer. However, at Mountain Lagoon in the lower Blue Mountains, about 530 metres above sea level, the liquid ambers are getting ready for Autumn:

Early Autumn Colour by SteveSeven77, on Flickr

Early Autumn Colour by SteveSeven77, on Flickr
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 15/03/2015 22:06

Nice photos, the autumn colours are starting to come on nicely. smile Good to hear your enjoying it there Eddy.
Posted by: EddyG

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 16/03/2015 07:02

Nice pics Steve777, nothing like that down here atm, but I haven't been looking hard.

Fairly fresh here this morning probably around the 5c mark.

Gee looking forward to a home cooked meal tonight!! grin
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 17/03/2015 07:42

There have been some cold nights around the place last night. Here are some obs of interest:

Goulburn Ap got the coldest morning award this morning with 4.3C. Closely followed by Braidwood Racecourse at 4.4C

Closer to sea level, Merriwa dipped to 8.5C and nearby Scone hit 8.8C. Cessnock Ap wasn't far behind at 9.1C

Meanwhile in the Sydney metro area, some of the SW suburbs dropped below 10C this morning.

My place (Wollongong Ap) got down to 10.9C- lucky I shut my window before bed. smile
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 17/03/2015 09:19

We were about 8 at the airport, would be cooler in town.

Feels quite autumnal this morning indeed. Tricking us before the heat spike of the next few days.

That big cloud band just coming over us now. smile Hope we get a sprinkle at least.

We have quite a lot of Autumnal colour up here. Been going since mid Feb, probably initiated by the dry conditions.
Posted by: DerekHV

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 17/03/2015 17:17

Actually has felt quite autumnish the last week, and even today, was quite cool in the early morning.
Pity about the late heat burst starting tomorrow.
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 18/03/2015 10:04

More like late spring atm with the rapid swings between cool and warm/hot conditions and it's very dry. A fairly rapid turnaround from the tropical conditions that characterised pretty much the whole of summer proper- humid, consistently warm and small diurnal/day to day temperature ranges.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 24/03/2015 16:27

If BOM are to be believed, we may be very close to our first frost on Saturday. Forecast min is 3 degrees.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 24/03/2015 17:46

I reckon a frost for you is certainly a possibility on Saturday. smile I don't see any reason to not believe the BoM's forecast- A cold front for Thursday and Friday and then a high will sit across NSW, typical cold morning setup. smile Orange is going for a low of just 1C

The weather is looking brilliant for Thursday and Friday with cool and dry westerly winds with sunshine at this stage. Then it looks like winds will turn SEly as the high sits over NSW for the weekend
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 25/03/2015 09:18

AUTUMN HAS ARRIVED - FINALLY smile

We will have warm days but the change last night, the moisture of the rain and cooler air intruded have I think FINALLY tipped the balance properly out here. Nights now will mostly be around 10 or below, not too many nights will be above 12 or 13 now.

Days will still be around low to mid 20's but overall, it's time to stop closing the curtains of a daytime and to leave the windows open. The house will now tip over into being cooler rather than warmer and I will no longer try and cool it down. smile smile smile
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 26/03/2015 20:57

Autumn is coming to Sydney as well. Some deciduous trees are starting to turn. It's not the temperature, maybe it's the fact that it's been fairly dry since the wet spell following Australia Day. Still humid with regular rain days, but mostly tiny totals. But Autumn colours do seem to be a bit early.

Another sign is that the bush is now silent. I had family visiting today and we went to Lane Cove National Park. It was a brilliant day, but the cicadas, still singing a couple of weeks ago, have gone. I look forward to their return.

Nights are slightly cooler - occasionally you need a blanket. And we have Westerlies that aren't hot.

Hopefully lots of snow events for the coming Winter.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 28/03/2015 07:49

Well it was certainly a cold one for many last night, once that west to SW wind dropping. And the wind actually did drop at Cooma Ap and it was the first place that that got below 0 in NSW (apart from the snowies). Here are the 10 coldest minimums:

Cooma Ap: -1.3C
Glen Innes Ap: 0.1C
Canberra Ap: 0.6C
Young: 1.1C
Goulburn Ap: 1.3C
Braidwood: 1.8C
Tuggeranong: 1.9C
Temora: 2.1C
Orange Ap: 2.3C
Bathurst Ap: 2.4C
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 28/03/2015 09:35

Well done SM - beat me to it. smile

It will warm up again next week. It's been a crazy drop from summer like temps here to near winter(especially the nights).

So close to a frost here, I reckon someone in the area in a cooler area would have had at least a light frost this morning. I checked the roof of the car but it was wet not frozen. Very close though. smile

House has chilled, I am now trying to keep it warm when a week ago I was trying to cool it, CRAZY!! smile
Posted by: EddyG

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 28/03/2015 21:14

Here are a couple of pics from Canberra, not exactly happy with them, camera was playing up!!
111 by grouter75, on Flickr

115 by grouter75, on Flickr
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 28/03/2015 22:57

Originally Posted By: Sea-Mist
Well it was certainly a cold one for many last night, once that west to SW wind dropping. And the wind actually did drop at Cooma Ap and it was the first place that that got below 0 in NSW (apart from the snowies). Here are the 10 coldest minimums:

Cooma Ap: -1.3C
Glen Innes Ap: 0.1C
Canberra Ap: 0.6C
Young: 1.1C
Goulburn Ap: 1.3C
Braidwood: 1.8C
Tuggeranong: 1.9C
Temora: 2.1C
Orange Ap: 2.3C
Bathurst Ap: 2.4C

Cooma Airport will have to share the honour with Woolbrook and Armidale on the northern ranges of NSW. Last night, Woolbrook had a minimum of -2.8ºC and Armidale (City) had a minimum of -0.6ºC.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 28/03/2015 23:52

Ah thanks for that Breezy. I didn't even see those stats. What did you go into to find them?

Eddy they're fine photos. smile Well done.

Currently sitting on 12C at Albion Park. I suspect it's more like 14 or 15 here judging by my walk home from a party.
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 29/03/2015 00:34

Originally Posted By: Sea-Mist
Ah thanks for that Breezy. I didn't even see those stats. What did you go into to find them?

Eddy they're fine photos. smile Well done.

Currently sitting on 12C at Albion Park. I suspect it's more like 14 or 15 here judging by my walk home from a party.

Accessed via the NSW Weather Observations page
http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/observations/index.shtml

then click on 'Daily Weather Observations tables'
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW0200.shtml
The minimum temp (and the max temp during the 24 hours to 9am) is usually entered onto these tables by 11am.
The 9am Weather Bulletin publishes the minimum temps fairly quickly with often pretty much every site reporting in by 10am (http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDN60029.html) however temps are rounded off to the nearest whole number. The daily weather obs tables will provide the exact figure (but take a little longer to be available).

The NSW Latest Observations page only provides low and high temps for the Bureau's automatic weather stations. Places like Woolbrook, Armidale (City), Oberon, Smoky Cape, Batemans Bay etc. are manual weather stations instead, with (human) observers reporting the obs from these stations to the Bureau.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 29/03/2015 08:52

Nice pictures Eddy.

Here's some early Autumn colour at Chatswood near Sydney:

Early Autumn Colour - Sydney by SteveSeven77, on Flickr

The picture was taken on the 24th before the storms developed. The area is below 100 metres above Sea level, so altitude isn't a factor.

Re Woolbrook, I note that in the 8 days from March 20 to 28, the temperature ranged from 34.5 (a March record) to -2.8, quite extraordinary.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 30/03/2015 10:22

Hey Eddy, lot's of that sort of colour around here as well. Will get more into gear as April unfolds. smile
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2015 16:06

The weather now says that it's Autumn, having cooled down with the arrival of Easter. In Sydney, temperatures have been close to the seasonal average after a warm March.

Autumn displays are now in full swing across Sydney:

Autumn Colour by SteveSeven77, on Flickr

After a cool night (about 14 degrees), today was in two halves, a cloudy morning with a couple of light showers followed by a mostly sunny afternoon.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2015 16:18

Nice pic Steve. Here it hasn't been a day of two halves. It's just been cloudy all day with a couple light showers. I think there was about a minute of sunshine all up and that was at around 3pm
Posted by: DerekHV

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2015 19:07

Surprisingly cool for the 1st half of April, but then we have got used to above average Aprils for a few years now - sometimes persisting until after ANZAC day, ie the last week.
Definitely feeling very autumnish, not such a bad thing to get back to normal weather patterns.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/04/2015 09:57

Definitely changed out here, I am now trying to warm the house with sunshine when about 3 weeks ago all windows/curtains were closed trying to keep daily heat out. smile

Colours are ok out here but I think the dry conditions of the last few months are causing a lot of trees to just brown off instead of colouring up properly. Luckily though plenty of colour despite that factor. smile
Posted by: EddyG

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2015 10:09

Some Autumn colours this week in Canberra
081 by grouter75, on Flickr
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2015 10:16

Nice photo Eddy. The sky looks sooo blue there and the air quality looks amazing. You just don't see that here.

We don't have many nice autumn trees here in the Gong. Maybe if I go to the southern highlands to visit my gran and pop in the near future I will take some snaps cool
Posted by: EddyG

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2015 10:23

To be Honest SM, the air quality has been quite crap of late in Canberra with controlled burns, that pic was taken after the recent change, hence the relatively clean air and skies!!
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 16/04/2015 09:16

The following graph shows daily mean temperatures at Sydney Airport for the Summer of 2014-2015 and the beginning of the descent into Autumn 2015:

Sydney Airport Summer Temperature Stats by SteveSeven77, on Flickr

Key

- Dashed blue line: daily means - average of minimum and maximum. Forecast temps for Sydney (OH) have been used for Apr 16-22.
- Solid red line: nine day moving average
- Solid green line: long term average (1981-2010)

Commentary

It was a strange Summer in some ways:
- It started out hot and stormy
- There was a 'mild wave' in mid December - a period of 12 days of below average to average temps, although no particularly cool days
- We had a quite hot mid Summer - about two degrees above average for most of January, although there were no extreme days (38+)
- From Australia Day, we had a 'mini Ice Age' reminiscent of December 2011, featuring an ECL with heavy rain for 3 days, followed by 9 days of persistent S-SE'ers
- Temps bounced back, with mid February again tracking about 2 degrees above average
- There's been a pretty orderly cool-down since late February, mostly tracking 1 to 2 above average. Since early April, temps have been close to average, with maybe a last hurrah from Summer in the next few days.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 29/04/2015 22:05

The Eastern Water Dragons have disappeared. It seems that the rain and cool weather has sent them into hibernation (or, more correctly, brumation) about 3 to 4 weeks early. In the Sydney area they are normally active until the second half of May. They will probably reappear in late August.

It probably doesn't say anything about the weather to expect. Last year they disappeared after a brief cool spell in the first week of May, 2 to 3 weeks earlier than normal. The rest of the month was warm and dry, but that did not entice them from their slumbers.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/03/2016 19:04

Autumn has arrived? Well not quite, although it's on its way. The cicadas have fallen silent, it's dark at 6:30AM, the NRL's started, the Tibouchinas (dark purple flowers) are blooming and, in spite of an ongoing late Summer heat wave, deciduous trees are starting to turn:

First Autumn Colour by Steve, on Flickr

This picture was taken near Richmond Aerodrome early this afternoon. I'm wondering if the early turning might be in part owing to heat and drought stress. The average maximum temperature for Richmond for the first 11 days of March is tracking just below 33 degrees, nearly 5 degrees above average, while there has only been 4mm of rain since February 4 (36 days).
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 11/03/2016 19:13

Nice pics Steve, not sure if we'll be posting here for a little while yet. Summer is certainly still trying to hold on.

Looks like autumn may commence around the 20th March for these parts. Seems like a good cool change will arrive.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/03/2016 11:10

Steve - our trees went very early too. I think moisture stress was a big part of it. Many of the leaves are just going brown instead of colouring out here.

The rain yesterday though could possibly slow it down again, have seen that happen once or twice before.

Next week out here will finally see us get slightly more autumnal I reckon. Then Easter should be another cool down. FINALLY getting close to a "step down" out here I think, not before time either. grin
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 19/03/2016 18:22

I've posted earlier versions of this spreadsheet. It shows the daily mean at Sydney Olympic Park from mid Winter last year out to March 26 (forecast used for March 20-26). I think it shows that Autumn has arrived:



The dashed blue line is the daily mean temperature (average of maximum and minimum for the day). The red line is a 9-day moving average. The green line represents the average for the period 1996-2015.

It shows a sudden drop from unseasonably hot conditions back to average since the start of the week, almost a mirror of the sudden rise in early October. Pretty much uniquely in my memory, 'peak Summer' seems to have come right at the end.

We might get a few more 30 degree days, but not long runs of them. 35 degrees is now quite unlikely before October / November.

Sydney's long Summer 2015/16: 4/10/2015 - 14/3/2016, with a couple of interruptions.

P.S. the equinox occurs tomorrow March 20 at 3:30PM AEDT.
Posted by: kizz

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 19/03/2016 19:10

Equinox tomorrow but this site shows the 12 hours of sunshine is crossed between 23/24 March. Something to do with the Earth's shape/wobble/procession/mood I think I remember reading.

Out of interest Steve why do you pick 9 days for your running mean? I do a lot of this stuff when I am trying out new data processing software and languages. I always use 7 (for my lowest benchmark) because it's the number of days in a week.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 19/03/2016 21:04

Hello Kizz.

It wasn't anything too scientific. When I first put together the spreadsheet a few months ago, I tried different numbers. As I recall, 5 or 7 were a bit bumpy, while 9 or more smoothed some of the rough edges. I went with 9, small enough to bring out warm and cool spellls while smoothing out the large ups and downs which are so much a feature of Sydney's Spring and Summer weather.
Posted by: DerekHV

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 19/03/2016 21:15

Originally Posted By: Steve777
I've posted earlier versions of this spreadsheet. It shows the daily mean at Sydney Olympic Park from mid Winter last year out to March 26 (forecast used for March 20-26). I think it shows that Autumn has arrived:



The dashed blue line is the daily mean temperature (average of maximum and minimum for the day). The red line is a 9-day moving average. The green line represents the average for the period 1996-2015.

It shows a sudden drop from unseasonably hot conditions back to average since the start of the week, almost a mirror of the sudden rise in early October. Pretty much uniquely in my memory, 'peak Summer' seems to have come right at the end.

We might get a few more 30 degree days, but not long runs of them. 35 degrees is now quite unlikely before October / November.

Sydney's long Summer 2015/16: 4/10/2015 - 14/3/2016, with a couple of interruptions.

P.S. the equinox occurs tomorrow March 20 at 3:30PM AEDT.


Interesting graph, especially the very late peak this year.(normal peak would be late Jan-early Feb).
Very please though that autumn is upon us, a forecast of 35C for a weeks time has now been downgraded to 30C - no more last hurrahs here either.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 20/03/2016 10:29

Yes good graph Steve.

Well it looks like Cooma Ap was a bit chilly this morning with 0.8°C. Still about 8°C and quite breezy.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 21/03/2016 11:35

Finally getting to be autumn proper. Summer dragged out indeed, in some places it will still take a while to shake the summer warmth, eg Western areas. The nights though inland become more difficult to overcome due to the temp drop on clear nights. smile
Posted by: DerekHV

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 22/03/2016 08:27

Originally Posted By: DaveM
Finally getting to be autumn proper. Summer dragged out indeed, in some places it will still take a while to shake the summer warmth, eg Western areas. The nights though inland become more difficult to overcome due to the temp drop on clear nights. smile


Very happy with the drop in night time temps here, although not as pronounces as further inland, finally needing a light blanket at night now.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 22/03/2016 09:15

Yes we have turned the fans off at the moment and keep vacillating between a blanket and a light quilt. Last night was a bit too warm for the thin quilt but too cool for the blankie!!

Soon we will have the heater on at work in the morning but the cooling on in the arvo. smile
Posted by: Ron W at Walcha

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 23/03/2016 06:30

First ice for the year this morning.Down to 1.8, 2.1 atm. Ice on vehicles-too dark to see if light ground frost.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 23/03/2016 09:33

Showing off again Ron grin Thats a good effort. Coldest for us so far this year, is this morning at about 6.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 02/04/2016 18:03

Today was warm - temps ranged from 18-31 in Sydney, although things have changed in the last couple of weeks:

- nights are no longer staying above 20
- humidity is down
- we've had a warm, sunny day with light winds and no sea breeze
- the 'hot' days are now around 30, not 35+

The natural world is reacting as if Autumn was starting. While some deciduous trees are still in full leaf, flashes of Autumn colour are becoming more noticable.

Another welcome return in Autumn are the Tibouchinas. Here are some beautiful Tibouchina's in in bloom in Centennial Park the other day:

Tibouchinas in Centennial Park by Steve, on Flickr

Such a deep purple they're almost off the visible scale. I tend to think of them as sort of 'mirror' Jacarandas. While Jacarandas herald the start of Summer, Tibouchinas signal its end.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/04/2016 21:09

Nice pic Steve. I can't quite feel Autumn yet. The weather is currently alternating between autumn and summer. In over a week that should change though. Soon enough winter will creep up on us.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 04/04/2016 10:50

Steve, nice photo, I love seeing them in bloom, certainly one of my favourites.

Next week I believe is a step down point in the weather, especially for us out here. We should have one or 2 days sub 20 max. We MIGHT just get near a frost next week, maybe a near miss but not far away now. smile
Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 04/04/2016 17:32

Steve,

That is a beautiful photo with such vivid colours.
I love the Tibouchina. It always reminds me of autumn, which is my favourite time of the year.
When I see tibouchina flowers, I know winter is on its way.
Besides the excitement it brings me, it is also a beautiful plant when tended to correctly.
I first saw, then learnt about, and then planted my first tibouchina about 30 years ago.

Homer.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 05/04/2016 10:55

I've really only known about them the last few years, stunning when in flower. smile

Proper fair dinkum Autumn will become established from about Monday/Tuesday next week out here. The heat will finally be flushed away to the north. grin
Posted by: Rob G

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 05/04/2016 11:15

The endless summer just keeps rolling on around here. Only signs of autumn are the walnuts and chestnuts being ripe for harvest.

If the 26°C maximum forecast for Wednesday comes off, it will likely be the warmest ever experienced since European settlement in these parts. We are experiencing a string of 20°C+ days in a row – very rare for here, where the mean April max is 15°C, and days over 20°C are uncommon (at least they were until now). We won’t see a day below the April mean maximum until next Monday. Even worse is the ongoing dry, exacerbated by abnormally high temperatures. No decent rain has fallen for 2 months and the models suggest the dry will continue for at least the next 2 weeks.

We felt lucky for having escaped the worst of El Nino over summer, but now it is getting a late revenge.
Posted by: DerekHV

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 07/04/2016 13:40

Finally some genuine reprieve from the relentless Indian summer, looks like autumn may finally have some say now.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/05/2016 18:11

Autumn has sort of arrived but it's running about a month behind the calendar. In some years I would have brought the heater out by now.

So in Sydney this year, March was high Summer, April temperatures were close to the March average, while if the forecast is correct, the weather for the first 10 days in May would be close to what you could expect for the first 10 days of April (except sunnier).

Away from the coast, nights have been getting a bit chilly, especially in the traditional cold hollows like: Camden (4.0, i.e. 39F, what I call cold); Campbelltown (4.8); Richmond (5.9); and even Canterbury, only 12km from the CBD (7.4). Sydney Olympic Park dropped to 9.8 on each of the last two mornings, the first sub 10 since Sept 29. Even OH's positively tropical 12.8 was the coldest there since Sept 29.

Deciduous trees are still keeping to schedule:

Autumn Colours by Steve, on Flickr
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/05/2016 18:15

Best autumn I can remember in many years living in Syd, just consistent warmth and dry. In 2014 I remember there was a significant front at the start of May and never warmed up after that. This is brilliant so far, upcoming widespread inland rain event with the NW'er keeping us warm in the east, couldn't ask for better.

Was gonna plan a trip to Thailand to get away from the cold, won't need to do that by the looks of things grin
Posted by: EddyG

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 03/05/2016 19:50

Originally Posted By: Steve777
Deciduous trees are still keeping to schedule:


Deciduous trees here are certainly not playing the game as yet, some have shed leaves without colour and some still have bright green leaves. That's one thing I do miss about Canberra was the colours in the leaves at this time of the year.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 04/05/2016 09:31

Deciduous here are a bit all over the place. Some pretty much done, some part way, some not started, some just have dead leaves falling off. weird one out here this year.

Certainly Autumn finally hitting properly. Wonder wwhether winter will be late or the switch will be flicked and Autumn will have been very short? Time will tell.

LRH - yes that potential inland rain event looks to favour west of here and they need it badly.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 05/04/2017 17:44

I thought it might be time to reopen this thread. Autumn has definitely arrived after a long hot Summer.

The following graph shows the average daily temperature* at Sydney Olympic Park from January 1 to April 12 (blue dotted line - forecast values used for April 6-12). A seven day moving average is shown in red to smooth out the considerable bumps brought on by extreme heat and southerly changes.



January started out average but quickly warmed up to the hottest January-February period on record across Sydney. Things started to cool down from mid-February to close to average in early March. It was warmer than I expected for the second half of March, owing to a few warmer days but also consistently warm nights. With April came a fairly significant cooling, but only to slightly below average.

It might post a later version of this chart in May.

So when did Autumn start? I'd say pretty much on time, around the beginning of March.

* Average of min and max
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 05/04/2017 21:31

Some of the trees are turning around Bowral, but most of them have not just yet. My pop has lived in the Southern Highlands for 40 years and reckons that it's colder than it should be in early April. He said that usually, he doesn't have the fire on regularly until around ANZAC day, but it's been on every day since this weekend.

I reckon that Autumn actually started in NSW as whole, last weekend. Up until then it was really February weather IMO.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/04/2017 08:48

Most decidous trees around Sydney are still in full leaf, but Autumn colour is starting to become conspicuous in some species. Here is a liquidamber in Little Digger Park, Roseville, yesterday afternoon:

Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/04/2017 09:42

It's late out here (leaf change)

Many trees look like they are in full normal leaf.

Others are showing slight turning. Next week or so should see it get underway more noticeably.

Temperature wise, we are absolutely autumnal. smile
Posted by: ozthunder

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 06/04/2017 15:55

Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Some of the trees are turning around Bowral, but most of them have not just yet. My pop has lived in the Southern Highlands for 40 years and reckons that it's colder than it should be in early April. He said that usually, he doesn't have the fire on regularly until around ANZAC day, but it's been on every day since this weekend.

I reckon that Autumn actually started in NSW as whole, last weekend. Up until then it was really February weather IMO.


Anzac Day is the day people from Canberra mark as the point of no return, or the start of shivering. There was a Canberra Season calendar on FB at one stage, and basically it said either Freezing, or Hot except for 2 weeks around late March which were labelled nice.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 07/04/2017 09:19

Yes Michael - same here, Anzac Day is a time associated with first frosts and cooler days. 20+ degree days here get pretty rare after late April. Mornings usually low to mid single digits.
Posted by: Morham

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2017 21:52

Early to mid May in the blue mountains is best time for colour.

My area, the liquidambars dont start changing until early june.

This autumn so far has been awesome. Very promising! Cant wait to head up to mt tomah botanical gardens in the next few weeks. Hoping to catch the ginkos going buttery yellow. They were fully green this time last year, as were many of the japanese maples. Too hot last year!

This year looking good. Lovely days , cool nights.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2017 09:29

This week should see a lot more trees getting into the autumn thingy smile

It's late here (too warm I suspect) but more and more trees just starting now. smile
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2017 09:38

Unlike some recent years, we seem to be getting proper seasons in Sydney this year, so far at least. Here are the Sydney Olympic Park averages (min-max rounded) for the year so far:

Jan 21 - 32
Feb 20 - 30
Mar 19 - 26
Apr 13 - 23 (1st - 16th, including forecast)

Maybe a cold Winter?
Posted by: Morham

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 10/04/2017 10:49

Originally Posted By: DaveM
This week should see a lot more trees getting into the autumn thingy smile

It's late here (too warm I suspect) but more and more trees just starting now. smile

Hopefully! My favourite time of the year.


Woh woh woh!!!
Just checked the temperature in katoomba! 5.2°C as of 10:48AM!
The 'feels like' is 0.1°C!!
That is fantastic.

That is the kind of weather that will trigger leaf change. Excellent excellent smile
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2017 10:11

Autumn colours are becoming more visible around Sydney.

[/url]Autumn Colour by Steve, on Flickr[/img]

Daylight saving has finished, the football season is well underway and days are rapidly shortening. The very hot Summer of just 6 or 7 weeks ago is now a memory, pleasant for some, less so for others. After a warm, very soggy March, April has been a mix of sun and showers, with temparatures tracking close to average. 20 degree minima and 30 degree days have finsished for the season, with nights now consistently dropping below 15. It's probably another month or so before we'll need to get the heater out, however.
Posted by: EddyG

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2017 12:41

Nice colour there Steve777.

Not much colour here as yet, not that we have a lot of deciduous trees about the area, I have noticed one tree is skipping the colour bit its decided to drop leaves regardless, probably due to the heat over Summer.
We haven't had a great deal of sunshine here, in fact we have had 10 out of the first 12 days of April have had rain recorded on.
Posted by: DaveM

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2017 13:22

We have a number of trees looking like that one in Steves photo. However plenty of trees have no colouring per se.

Some are like Eddy said - just dessicated brown leaves dropping off. Skipping the pretty bit.
Posted by: Jimi

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2017 14:15

How's Darwin. It's absolutely obliterated its record low max for April by 2.7C (and for any month other than July by the look of it).

See here
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW8014.latest.shtml

and then here
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_014015_All.shtml
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2017 14:49

Wow that is absolutely insane for Darwin. Temps were in the high teens late yesterday afternoon!!! shocked

Nice pic Steve. I noticed today in Bowral that just in a week it has gone from very few trees with colour last Wednesday to most trees now with yellows, oranges and red aplenty.
Posted by: Befour

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2017 15:41

Such a marked difference in seasons this year compared to the last few years.

We have had a few pretty chilly days about Sydney.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2017 21:46

Hey g'day gang! smile

I'll be reporting back in the NSW/ACT threads once again this Easter, yes I'm off to Corryong, Northeast Victoria, leaving Melbourne tomorrow. Feels like only yesterday when I was in Canberra. poke

I got a brief taste of autumn while I was in the Capital during the Victorian Labour Day long weekend (and the corresponding Canberra Day long weekend). The Canberra Balloon Spectacular didn't take flight on Day 1 because of heavy morning fog. Otherwise the nights felt chilly, but apart from the last couple of days when it turned humid, wet, and stormy the days felt as hot and dry as high summer! I was fortunate enough to see just a wee bit of autumn colour along Queen Elizabeth Terrace (in the Parliamentary Triangle). smile

Last Easter I was at Corryong and there wasn't much good autumn colour across the Upper Murray, as I was too early unfortunately; it was in late-March. frown

Hopefully this year is different. I've seen a couple of pics on Instagram showing some nice autumn colours at least in Tumbarumba, but not much else from elsewhere around the Upper Murray.

Also some snow still hugging the Kosciuszko range, although I cannot tell precisely how recently this photo was taken (only when it was posted):

https://www.instagram.com/p/BSuxuHdAt0w/?tagged=uppermurray

Hope some snow sticks to the peaks by the time I get there! smile

The forecast for the Easter weekend for the Upper Murray calls for cold nights, as low as 2°C on Sunday morning in Corryong, possibly with fog and frost, followed by mild to warm, generally sunny afternoons. Hopefully it'll be enough to speed the autumn colour process up this year! smile
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 26/03/2019 22:14

Here's an old thread that hasn't been used for a couple of years. We could post reflections and observations on the change of season and thoughts on the coming season here.

I think that Autumn had arrived:

- We had a dry W-SW change come through.
- We had a mild, sunny day with Westerlies
- Deciduous trees are starting to turn
- It is looking decidedly Autumnal towards the end of the forecast period, with low teens minima and low 20s maxima for Sydney
- The Equinox has passed. Days are rapidly getting shorter
- The NRL season is well underway
- Reports of sub-zero minima in the highlands and possible flakes in the near future.
- Major heat is probably finished. No more 35+, maybe a couple more 30+. Sub 15 minima to become the rule away from the coast, few if any more 20+
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 26/03/2019 22:56

I wonder if anyone has got stats on what percentage of the State has hit the Autumn Break which is '25mm or more over a period of 3 days'. I feel like it's another important feature of Autumn.
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 27/03/2019 07:29

Autumn has most certainly arrived; although snowfall on Saturday & Sunday looks to be very marginal instead of a good chance for me now (due to some hefty precipitation loss from the forecast), it is still just as cold with 9° C and 8° C maximums, respectively.

Poplar and Birch are really showing their colours, amongst other trees.

Quite the contrary to last year, which seemed as if it were an "Indian Summer"—extended "summery" conditions pretty much from January to May...this year, summer halted when February halted, of which I like much better—more seasonal.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 27/03/2019 08:41

It a bit chilly in Sydney this morning after a clear night, the coldest since November, for example:

Sydney OH: 14.9. The last minimum this cold was December 24. The last colder minimum was November 25 (14.5)

Bankstown: 11.9. The last colder minimum was 11.8 on November 25.

Camden and Campbelltown dropped below 10.

A bit of cloud is rolling in now but I think it will soon burn off to another nice, sunny day, a bit cooler than yesterday.
Posted by: DerekHV

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 29/03/2019 08:21

The first taste of some cooler nights, 11.6 yesterday, about 12C this morning, and down to 10C on Sunday and Monday.
And then 10 to 25C is the the diurnal range, quite glorious.
Yep, the fist signs of autumn for sure.
Posted by: kizz

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 29/03/2019 14:59

One more week of getting home before dark.
Then a month later leaving for work in the dark.
And we descend into the period where I only see my house in daylight on the weekend.
Posted by: Ben K

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 29/03/2019 21:53

Originally Posted By: kizz
One more week of getting home before dark.
Then a month later leaving for work in the dark.
And we descend into the period where I only see my house in daylight on the weekend.


I wish we could just stay on Daylight Saving time all year. I'd rather put up with the dark mornings and have more light in the evening to enjoy.

Many other places around the world are opting for permanent Daylight Saving time. The U.S states of California and Florida have voted for permanent Daylight time, although it hasn't been approved by Congress yet. Several north east States such as Massachusetts are considering it as well. With the E.U planning to eliminate yearly clock changes by 2021, some European countries are deciding whether to stay on permanent Daylight Time as well. Spain already has permanent Daylight Time.

Argentina also has permanent Daylight time. Take a look at Buenos Aires sunrise/sunset times and compare them to Sydney at about the same latitude.

Comparison:

Sydney earliest Sunrise - 6th December - 5:37 AM
Sydney latest sunset - 7th/8th January - 8:09 PM
Sydney latest sunrise - 6th April - 7:10 AM
Sydney earliest sunset - 11th/12th June - 4:52 PM

Buenos Aires earliest sunrise - 6th December - 5:33 AM
Buenos Aires latest sunset - 6th/7th January - 8:10 PM
Buenos Aires latest sunrise - 29th/30th June - 8:01 AM
Buenos Airest earliest sunset - 12th June - 5:49 PM

Sydney average solar noon - 11:55 AM (Standard Time) 12:55 (Daylight Time)

Buenos Aires average solar noon - 12:53 PM (ART Argentina Time all year)

https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/australia/sydney
https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/argentina/buenos-aires

I'd take Buenos Aires timezone over Sydney's any day of the week.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 31/03/2019 19:55

I like daylight saving in Summer but it does continue for too long. Not keen on it being dark at 7:00AM, 7:30 on overcast mornings like yesterday.

Around the Autumn solstice in Sydney each day is over two minutes shorter than the previous one. I would move the change to the weekend before the Autumn Equinox.

----

Well, a Winter style cold front sweeping eight through the state, with snow in the highlands and a cool, sunny day in Sydney with Westerlies. Definitely Autumn. Too bad the winds are going to turn South Easterly tomorrow, When that doesn't happen we'll know it's Winter.

Here's my first Autumn tree for the season, one in a front yard in Chatswood West that is always first to turn. Don't know the species:

Posted by: EddyG

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 31/03/2019 20:12

Hard to say what type of tree it is Steve777, probably part of the maple tree family, have you got any close up pictures of the leaves?

Well this Autumn here the mushrooms have been popping up all over the place after the recent rains and not just your stock standard type either, plenty of the golden top varieties about.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 31/03/2019 20:46

That's an interesting observation haven't seen any mushrooms in these parts since the 2016 winter. Almost forgot they existed in these parts.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2019 17:06

There have been a few mushrooms popping up around here after the rain.

-------
Autumn colours are advancing, although some deciduous trees are further along than others, with many still in full leaf. Here's a beautiful tree in West Pymble against the best backdrop, a clear blue sky. At 30-31 degrees, it was not quite Autumnal.



Posted by: Homer

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 08/04/2019 17:18

Trees starting to turn around here too Steve, although only just.
The recent heat seems to have slowed the rate of change.
Posted by: Mcbobbings

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2019 08:10

Certainly much more advanced than last year though. Trees didn't start turning until late April, this year I saw the first hints of colour in mid march.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2019 09:29

I see that the forecast for Sydney for the coming week after today is for temperatures close to and slightly below the seasonal average. Average min max forecast for April 10-15 compared to averages are:

Sydney OH: 14-23 c.f. 15-24 (1981-2010).
Parramatta : 12-23 c.f. 13-24.

The forecast has just been updated and is still going for 26 degrees with possible thunderstorms later today, with the possibility of thunderstorms again early next week.

Meanwhile, NAEFS is showing a warm signal for SE Australia for next week: NAEFS Apr 16-23
Posted by: Stormy3

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2019 13:41

Just had a huge black cloud pass over me from the west,it drops 6 huge drops then drops it's guts east of me,no thunder here but would would say rathmines would have a bulls eye hit with a heavy storms now moving off shore.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 09/04/2019 14:32

Pretty much nothing here apart from a few big drops. Looks like the southerly is now charging towards inland from Wattamolla. Hope it helps ignite something.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 12/04/2019 23:51

The change of season seems to be proceeding pretty much to schedule. Autumn colours are advancing, the beautiful deep purple tibouchinas are in full bloom and the cicadas have been silent for a month now. Blankets and jumpers have been retrieved from their Summer storage.

The following graph shows the progress of daily mean temperatures at Sydney Olympic Park, from early Summer until mid April. Forecasts have been used for April 13-19.



The dotted blue line shows daily readings, the red line shows a 7 day moving average while the orange line shows the 'long term' daily means - not that long, just 1996-2019, old and new sites combined.

As we can see, it was a hot Summer after a cool to average start, peaking in late January. It dipped below average in late February before bouncing back with some heat in early March. After that, we've had a fairly orderly cooldown, with temperatures now seeming to track close to average, in spite of ups and downs.

So what happens next? The chart seems to show that we're heading for an average (by today's standards cold) Winter. But with weather as with financial markets, graphs are of limited use in predicting the future.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 25/04/2019 23:13

After a cooler start, the change of season seems to have gone into reverse in the last little while.

Deciduous trees are still keeping to their timetable, however. Here's Little Digger Park in Roseville. It has a nice collection of Autumn trees at different stages, some still just starting to turn, one (out of frame) nearly bare and others in between:

Posted by: Steve777

Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW - 15/05/2019 16:02

Near the mid point of May, the season is still progressing, maybe a few weeks behind schedule:

Sydney Min, Max and anomalies for May 1-15 (average = 25% April - 75% May, OH 1981-2010):

Sydney OH :13.3 - 22.3 (+0.1 - +1.0)
Bankstown : 9.5 - 22.6 (-0.7 - +1.2)


There have been a couple of cold nights, but the coolest days have been average.

Maxima are expected to stay above average for at least a week, with warmer nights as well, so May could well end up significantly above average for Sydney.

It's been dry. At 14.6 mm, Sydney OH is tracking about 12% of the monthly average (all years). Bankstown, at 6.4 mm, is tracking 10% of its May average.

Progress on the season so far for Bankstown (min-max):

Feb 18-29; Mar 18-28; Apr 13-26: 1H May 10-23

------

The water dragons seem to have retired to their Winter lodgings. I saw one last week but none yesterday. They normally disappear after the first chilly days in May and don't return even if it warms up. I look forward to their return in August.

The Autumn displays are nearing their peak. Here are some trees in Richmond the other day: