NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019

Posted by: Kino

NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 11:19

Started a thread as it looks likely there'll be plenty of storm action over the next few days.

Approaching short-wave trough pushes into a decent moist e/ne feed & lingers. Gorilla hail a real possibility with storms.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 11:33

Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 11:48

Looks like steering winds will be pretty good for this area so they should reach the coast easily enough. They will come from the NW so it's the kind of day where I reckon Kiama will get the most action.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 11:53

Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Looks like steering winds will be pretty good for this area so they should reach the coast easily enough. They will come from the NW so it's the kind of day where I reckon Kiama will get the most action.


Sounding looks interesting - plenty of moisture, add some heat and it should explode.
Posted by: Stormy3

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 12:19

Kiama Dont be greedy you had over 50 mms only 2 days ago.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 13:17

Media reporting (Sydney Morning Herald) on expected storms over the next few days: https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weath...108-p50q3n.html

There's nothing on the radar yet, but today's action is likely to focus on the Illawarra. That band on the map Kino posted above will likely shift further North over the next couple of days.

Fine, sunny, humid and sea breezy here, with small patches of blowing low cloud and a more substantial cloud band to the South West.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 13:44

Already a decent band of severe storms inland and heading east. Plenty of ACCA's here but no real development as yet.
Posted by: Stormy3

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 14:07

Storms are developing near Kandos moving SE,Toward Sydney,they will get larger soon,my area here in the Hunter to be in the path of any action,they will have to fire up more out to the north northwest of me.
Posted by: Ben K

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 14:23

Nice and sunny here now, after the gloomfest of the past few days. The seagale is pretty strong though.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 15:03

Originally Posted By: Stormy3
Storms are developing near Kandos moving SE,Toward Sydney,they will get larger soon,my area here in the Hunter to be in the path of any action,they will have to fire up more out to the north northwest of me.


Hey Stormy - yeah that cluster of storms warrants definite attention - isolated ahead of the trough, moving into clear air. Plenty of fuel = potential. Meanwhile in SW NSW a pretty strong squall line is moving through at rapid pace = damaging wind gusts likely.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 15:10

Issued at 2:37PM: "Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for LARGE HAILSTONES, HEAVY RAINFALL and DAMAGING WINDS".

Warning area includes the South Coast, inland parts of the Illawarra, the Southern half of the Central Tablelands, stretching NW'wards to the far NW of the State.

Still clear blue skies here, 28-29 on the car thermometer.
Posted by: Stormy3

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 15:16

A large cell near Putty now,it looks to be heading east this one, towards my area,I am just 2kms east of Paxton, weatherzone radar.
Posted by: jackwilliam

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 15:30

At Razorback near Picton right now.

There's a bit of cumulus development between the Northwest and Southwest of my location. Nothing too big yet.
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 15:52

It's really exploding behind Canberra now, dark red core on the Syd radar (280km away) must be some serious rain/hail under it.
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 15:55

Looks promising! laugh
Posted by: Farmer

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 16:36

We just had an 88 km gust come through as the first storm front arrived
Posted by: Crimson_Tide_

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 17:03

Picking up some static on the lightening detector (ie ABC Radio), some activity coming in from the NW.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 17:06

The Sydney forecast is now showing an early Southerly tomorrow, which doesn't seem good for storm chances. It might be a 'warm Southerly' like we sometimes get, in which case Sydney will be a bit warmer than the forecast 25 and the scud cloud might hold off, allowing a bit of heating. It should still be good for the Hunter in any case.

Thursday on the charts looks like a rerun of yesterday, although that's not what was forecast.

A severe warning has just been issued (damaging winds) for the line just hitting Canberra.

P.S. a couple of sites around Sydney received 0.2 mm today, including OH, out of fairly clear skies, when drizzle lasting most of the day on Tuesday didn't register. Strange.
Posted by: Quagmelson

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 17:29

NE breeze blowing strongly now here. Very choppy sea, lots of white caps in the little bay here at south durras. Cumulus formations going up strongly ahead of a darkening skyline west over the ranges. Has blue bottles washing up yesterday. Cooking the bbq is a challenge
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 17:48

Whatís going on with radar over Merriwa? Both Sydney and Newcastle have it. But no cloud and no rain in the gauge???.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 17:48

Take an approx 45 min drive and core punch that possible supercell heading straight for Ulladulla Quaggy!!
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 17:53

Exploding as it reaches the coast. Hope something similar happens for the Sydney basin.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 17:55

Yes here's hoping Sidney. I also hope they continue at a slowish pace so we can get some night time action, without being slow enough that they decay.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 17:56

Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Whatís going on with radar over Merriwa? Both Sydney and Newcastle have it. But no cloud and no rain in the gauge???.
itís also gotten hotter.
Posted by: Quagmelson

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 18:06

Cgs all around atm
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 18:07

Radar looking sweet here if they make it over the ranges
Posted by: Snowmaker

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 18:15

Anyone know if there is any large hail in this line of storms approaching the southern highlands? Im currently overseas with two of the cars outside with no cover! Sure will be some heavy and much needed rain.

Im staying in Chamonix and still missing out on all of the metres of snow which are falling to the east!!!
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 18:21

Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Whatís going on with radar over Merriwa? Both Sydney and Newcastle have it. But no cloud and no rain in the gauge???.
itís also gotten hotter.


I searched up Merriwa Obs, longitude and latitude on a map. Looks like its not actually at Merriwa but rather a bit south west of the town. There is a real possibility that the showers were too far north for the gauge to register anything.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 18:31

Originally Posted By: Sidney
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Whatís going on with radar over Merriwa? Both Sydney and Newcastle have it. But no cloud and no rain in the gauge???.
itís also gotten hotter.


I searched up Merriwa Obs, longitude and latitude on a map. Looks like its not actually at Merriwa but rather a bit south west of the town. There is a real possibility that the showers were too far north for the gauge to register anything.


No lightning over that area on tracker. Also looks totally clear to the NW from here though my view is a bit shrouded. No anvil cloud. Wouldnt be suprised if it was a false echo.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 18:38

Originally Posted By: Snowmaker
Anyone know if there is any large hail in this line of storms approaching the southern highlands? Im currently overseas with two of the cars outside with no cover! Sure will be some heavy and much needed rain.

Im staying in Chamonix and still missing out on all of the metres of snow which are falling to the east!!!


Does not appear to be on radar and I would assume that any hail from that line of storms will be small anyway.
Posted by: Quagmelson

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 18:38

Stormchasing and family holiday dont mix WV! Youll understand when youre older. Wichuuuu (whip noise!). As it happened the line exploded on our doorstep with many a cg hitting into ocean or rocky outcrops. Flangs for 15mins, heavy rain, small grainy hail.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 18:46

Hahaha fair enough Quaggy, at least you got a good storm there.

Starting to hear some thunder now and western sky is getting pretty ominous. That squall line seems to almost be coming from the SW now which is strange.
Damn just noticed the part that will hit here is splitting and Kiama will get hammered as usual.
Posted by: Snowmaker

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 18:54

Pretty impressive rain rates from PWS in areas around berrima and wombeyan caves ie. Bullio - 120mm/hr, Medway - 149mm/hr. Most of these stations have registered totals between 35-40mm as well
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 19:27

Radar doesn't look very promising anymore.
Posted by: chapo

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 19:34

the storm will hit the southern part of Campbelltown
Posted by: EddyG

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 19:38

I'm just hoping this southerly is slow going tomorrow, its expected here not long after lunch.
Posted by: Flodge

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 19:38

Storm seems to be dying here. Rain unable to wet hot concrete yet. Looks like a gap opening up on radar
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 19:41

Getting a pretty decent storm here now but nothing spectacular yet.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 19:44

Some solid CG's despite not much showing on radar.

EDIT: looks like theres some building cumulus towards my north. Wonder if we will see cells come up as it enters the sydney basin.
Posted by: Flodge

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 19:47

I came inside to look at the barometer. Itís risen 8hPa in the last hour :-(
Posted by: Jac0b

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 19:49

Originally Posted By: Sidney
Some solid CG's despite not much showing on radar.

EDIT: looks like theres some building cumulus towards my north. Wonder if we will see cells come up as it enters the sydney basin.


Those cumulus are to the west of Parramatta. I can see some CG Lightning and hear rumbles now as it fills the radar.
Posted by: Marts

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 20:10

Radar is looking much better atm. At least there might be some precip and a rumble soon.

I thought it was going to fizzle out but maybe not.
Posted by: kizz

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 20:25

Cricket on at Olympic Park so a fizzle is desirable. Don't want a hat trick of days where Sydney weather ruins things.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 20:45

Pretty decent rain and cgís here but nothing in the severity category other than rainfall rates. Awesome start to a week of storms!
Posted by: Marts

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 20:56

Odd moderate/ heavy shower here with big drop of rain but no lightning or thunder but it's not over yet.
Still better than nothing and a start to hopefully some decent storms.
Posted by: Andrew-A

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 21:02

Iím in a rain band of juicy fauls echoes. Dammit!
Posted by: Jimi

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 21:12

The wind picked up here and I can see a SW change of sorts on the doppler. Weird, didn't expect that.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 21:17

Even when we get rain here its fake rain. Can confirm the radar is showing rubbish. No rain here even though we are under moderate radar signal.
Posted by: Quagmelson

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 21:19

https://postimg.cc/BXP2dvfw][/url
Storm approaching durras beach thx to ed g (i will read tutorial when i get home!).
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 21:34

Nice one Quag.

Well we got a pretty decent storm here in the end, probably about 15-20mm. Got a few nice gunshot flangs but most of the lightning was just sheet lightning and some nice bursts of really gusty winds at times. The structure before the storm came was really amazing, sort of similar to the shot above but more ominous. There was no hail as expected.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 21:40

A Southerly change seems to have passed through Sydney around 8:30 PM. Instead of a storm warning tomorrow, maybe it's an Ice Cream Vendor warning.

Light rain falling here, picking up in intensity. Looking at the radar, there's more on the way, but no storms.

EDIT: also looking at the radar, no more Cricket.
Posted by: Stormy3

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 21:42

YES, GringosRain,a bit of middle level cloud to my SW no towers,and clear skys above us.but radar is showing rain green on the radar,false readings,we car'nt win.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 21:48

Water vapour satpic shows the main part of the trough still to our west, itíll push back over night and then push east again. Another short wave trough is pushing up through southern Aus now and will again link with moisture off the Tasman. Should be storms closer to us and further north tomorrow.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 21:53

Meanwhile just to put tonightís storm in perspective - that was 25% of our monthly average. Albion Park is now at average and Kiama above average for Jan! And weíre only 8 days in.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 22:14

Is there a problem with the Sydney Olympic Oark rain gauge? It is obviously raining there but it is still sitting on zero. This has happened a few times, e.g New Years Eve and Saturday 5th, both recording 0.2, when surrounding sites recorded substantial totals.

Light, steady rain continues here and, judging by the radar, over most of Sydney, but the storms are gone.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 22:24

Raining heavily again here so that will bring the totals up nicely if it keeps up further.
Posted by: Morham

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 08/01/2019 22:45

Can I just point out we seem to be getting rain at much better intervals compared to last year. Very nice rain tonight.
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 07:31

No sign of a southerly in Syd yet, storms look to be on the cards again with an unstable looking sky this morning.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 08:09

Looks like its a tad delayed, currently a bit passed Kiama. Should still impact before midday though. Hope the delay at least helps with temps a bit.
Posted by: Mcbobbings

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 08:24

I definitely think there's an issue with the rain gauge at Olympic Park. It's been raining this morning there as well and still no totals registered. Same goes with OH and other sites across Sydney with the drizzle, you'd expect at least .2 or .4 out of all day drizzle, but nothing.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 08:51

The change seems to be on the Illawarra but it's not very strong, not much more than a sea breeze. I'd expect the winds to be turning S-SE in Sydney by around 10:00AM.

I often wish these changes would choose to stall on the Illawarra instead of waiting to get past Forster to do so. It must be something to do with the topography and the shape of the coastline.

But in any case, right now it's a beautiful sunny morning with light Westerlies and a bit of streaky high cloud. The dreaded marine layer seems to be South of Ulladulla. Storm chances still look good, especially for the Hunter.
Posted by: ozthunder

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 09:04

Another chase for mugs (that would be me lately). Got off work at 4:30pm could see that a couple of cells had developed ahead of the squall line and that these had severe potential. So I took the gamble on a highlands chase with the hope that another isolated storm may develop NW of highlands.

Unfortunately the squall line moved too quick and no isolated storm developed in my chase window. With anvil overcast all that was left was to wait the squall line. It was nice for a while, but a mugs game in reality.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 09:57

Today is interesting one - shallow southerly, clear slot, plenty of warming. Sounding showing a little drier air in the lower levels but that should be washed out with convection. Plenty of CAPE above that though - with a big dry wedge upstairs, should be good for lighting and also gorilla hail if storms get strong enough. Also strong jet (100 knots!!) above with classic 30 knot westerly steer. Interesting day ahead. Look out for supercells and damaging winds from microbursts today.

Edit: my chase target today defin would be Sydney --> Newcastle and inland. I think Illawarra may just miss out if that stratoslop to the south pushes further north (indicates stable marine air).
Posted by: Longys

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 10:22

Very steamy out here at the moment. Feels warmer than the 28 being predicted. Cicadas are in full swing.
Posted by: Jimi

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 11:16

As at 11:10am the southerly was through the airport (24C) but not yet Obs Hill (29C). Obs Hill has gone past its forecast max by more than 4C so far.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 11:25

Should've stayed in the Illawarra ozthunder. I was going to chase the Highlands but figured staying near home would be fine with the way the storms were intensifying near the coast. I ran into briefly strong winds in Albion Park and again at home.

The delayed and warm southerly should increase storm chances this arvo
Posted by: Jimi

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 11:45

Originally Posted By: Jimi
As at 11:10am the southerly was through the airport (24C) but not yet Obs Hill (29C). Obs Hill has gone past its forecast max by more than 4C so far.


The change has only just arrived at the 11:40 update. It took about 40 minutes to travel less than 9km from the airport to Obs Hill (traffic!). The maximum looks like being 30.4C, 5.4C more than forecast.
Posted by: Flodge

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 11:59

Can see a big cloud has popped up Dapto way from here. Moving and rising fast
Posted by: kizz

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 13:22

Originally Posted By: Steve777
The dreaded marine layer seems to be South of Ulladulla.

That layer is now visible to the south from my level 46 vantage point.
It's like watching Stephen King's "The Mist". I am feeling a sense of dread as it approaches. What unspeakable beasts are lurking within?

I'm looking at the tourists enjoying the sun in the hotel pools and wandering around the city. Little do they know of the treachery that awaits.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 13:24

Originally Posted By: Jimi
As at 11:10am the southerly was through the airport (24C) but not yet Obs Hill (29C). Obs Hill has gone past its forecast max by more than 4C so far.

It's unusual for the BOM to be out by 5 degrees, as it ended up. I was surprised they didn't update the forecast maximum with their 9:00 update, which said the change was expected around 'the middle of the day'. They've since updated it again (12:40 PM) to 29 - which presumably it just refers to this afternoon. Penrith got an 'upgrade' to 34, which it's almost reached.

There are a few bubbly convective clouds about, but nothing on the radar so far.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 13:35

Dark here now - which indicates that there is some height to the developing cloud rather than just usual stratocrappulus
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 14:41

first thunder to my north here around Cessnock.

If this system all stays north today Im going to go nuts as rain is looking scant again and heat a plenty over the next 2 weeks. Farm is tinder.

Southerly has come in strong but not really brisk. still 29
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 15:21

Sitting at around 26c now. Hope im wrong but im not feeling like were getting any storms.
Posted by: ozthunder

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 15:22

Love the way that the developing west Sydney basin storms have fired right on the convergence line - you can see the convergence line clearing on the BOM radar.

On a side note just 21C in Nowra now, they must all be looking for coats and scarfs
Posted by: Jimi

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 15:24

The question will be how well they can push through it and make the coast. Still sunny in the CBD but probably not for much longer.
Posted by: ozthunder

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 15:29

I am working to 5.30pm, so expect only some leftover dregs carried downstream by mid to upper winds if anything here (Shellharbour).

Scud fest is full swing here now too.

Have Friday off and looking like Supercell Friday to me ! Just where however.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 16:31

It's still sunny and 27 in Sydney, but The Mist cometh. Hopefully nothing as bad as Stephen King's vision: The Mist (novella)

While there is some convective development about, there doesn't seem to be any storm action in Sydney, although there is some action in the Hunter and North of the Hawkesbury..

I thought I might put together a quick spreadsheet tracking today's change along the coast from Jervis Bay to Newcastle. I've estimated times of arrival, ignoring periods of light SW-SE winds at some locations before the change proper. Distances are straight line distances from Point Perpendicular, taken from Google Maps.



EDIT: just checked the forecast. Cloud and drizzle for Sydney tomorrow, hopefully no one's playing cricket or selling ice cream. After that, it looks like a period of warm and fairly dry weather coming up.

Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 16:38

Sky is covered in marine layer now.
Posted by: EddyG

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 16:49

No southerly here as yet, Nor-easter slowing down, so I don't think its too far away.

Anvil cloud starting to block out the sun here now.
Posted by: Jimi

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 17:02

What a snooze fest for anywhere other than the Hunter!
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 17:09

Didn't take long for that marine layer to kick in. All that moisture from Ex-Penny might throw up a surprise perhaps in the next day or so.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 17:15

Originally Posted By: Jimi
What a snooze fest for anywhere other than the Hunter!


Didnt miss much. Only a little bit of the Hunter got that decent storm, the rest was below garden variety standard.

We had a 3 minute shower here...a couple of rumbles. Drought drags on....
Posted by: EddyG

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 17:27

Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Originally Posted By: Jimi
What a snooze fest for anywhere other than the Hunter!


Didnt miss much. Only a little bit of the Hunter got that decent storm, the rest was below garden variety standard.

We had a 3 minute shower here...a couple of rumbles. Drought drags on....


Totally agree.

Unfortunately storms are not going to make it to the coast around here anyway, maybe in the mid-north coast.
Still no southerly here.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 18:07

Showers just formed at Taragla and Bullio. I guess theres still hope
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 19:47

teeny tiny bit of drizzle from this marine layer as i was driving home.
Posted by: EddyG

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 20:04

Might have to rename this thread to severe drizzle outbreak!! lol

It appears the southerly has come through just now, its extremely weak at this stage, strongest gust so far 12.2kmph.
Posted by: Ben K

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 21:22

Typical post southerly gloom here now. Hopefully tomorrow brings some better storms.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 21:39

After being indoors few hours I went outside and found that it's raining. Roads are wet, gutters are flowing, umbrellas are out. Not mine, I left it at home.

The radar shows light showers across Northern Sydney. There's a line of red cells entering the basin from the NW. There are other cells about the Hunter, the Tablelands and Illawarra. So the Fat Lady hasn't sung yet.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 21:52

We got a brief heavy shower a little while ago which was surprising.
Posted by: Marts

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 22:49

The usual storm to the north of here did have some lightning and distant booms but not really any precip.

Looking at the forecast it's looking like a fizzer for this area again with the usual type of weather not making it to the coast over here but storms over the ranges.

Pretty boring, bring back the summer heat at least!


Posted by: Stormy3

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 09/01/2019 23:36

It got to 35deg here today Marts I dont want it any hotter.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 09:52

No weather today. 21 degrees, 100% overcast, the odd drizzle patch until early tomorrow. What we see is what we get.

The possibility of thunderstorms looks good for tomorrow. See the Thunderstorm Outlook on this site:
Thunderstorm outlook

It actually shows storms possible today, although it doesn't seem like the sort of day for storms.

The models show pronounced heat for Central-Eastern NSW for mid-next week which might prove threadworthy, but we'll see.
Posted by: kizz

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 10:19

Originally Posted By: Steve777
The models show pronounced heat for Central-Eastern NSW for mid-next week which might prove threadworthy, but we'll see.

Yeah fingers crossed it pans out. The models keep bringing the heat to the coast and then taking it back inland.

The Mist has really closed in around the city in the last hour. A bit of drizzle has increased to widespread mizzle.
Think I saw a tentacle as well.
Posted by: Ben K

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 12:47

Gloom City here again today. Looking forward to that warmth next week!
Posted by: Stormy3

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 13:09

It might be cloudy here with scud cloud, but Gee it is humid,still better then day after day of 35+temps.
Posted by: EddyG

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 13:15

Scud is slowing breaking up here, current temp 25.6c, Dewpoint 21c Humidity 77%.

Had 0.3mm around 1.30AM this morning from one of those decaying showers, no lightning was observed last night.
Posted by: Jac0b

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 13:27

An storm has developed about 30km south of Oberon.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 13:41

Barely 20c here but because of the nice high dp's it's actually quite sticky. Radar showing stuff popping up to the west and with the steer, heading east. Been mizzly all day with the escarpment shrouded in low cloud and I'd suspect decent drizzle (under the radar beam so not being picked up).
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 13:57

Sure is humid despite the low cloud. Looks to be enough for a few storms now developing out west, very slow moving but probably a good thing for the inlanders. Hopefully a few stationary cells up in the Hunter as well soon.
Posted by: jackwilliam

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 14:30

At Lithgow right now, travelling to Oberon. Quite a few large cumulus/cumulonimbus clouds are popping up all over the place.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 14:43

They're hitting the denser more stable marine layer and dying. Seems the BM's & west is the place to be atm.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 16:22

Doesnít look to be any shear at all.
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 16:58

Things really firing over the center now, Dunedoo spent some time under a red core, now Mudgee's turn. Shear picking up, things moving along.
Posted by: DVC

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 17:10

nice black core travelling nnw/sse to the west of here approaching gunning.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 17:35

Looked like DaveM would have got a good storm.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 17:45

This might be a stupid question but in weather like this if a powerful supercell forms would it have enough strength to reach the coast despite the strong south easterlies.

edit: 85km/hr gust at bathurst
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 17:49

Shear isn't strong enough to maintain a supercell all the way to the coast, that's the thing. Tomorrow may be different however with some decent turning in the lowers as well.
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 17:54

Shear not looking like anything special on GFS for tomorrow.
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 18:00

True it's looking stronger over the Illawarra, so perhaps one or two potential left-mover supercells over the W/SW Syd suburbs.

The jet-stream running just to our north will make things interesting.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 18:01

Shear aint the best for tomorrow. But at least the winds will be coming from the NE. And the sun should be out as well so we will get more daytime heating. Looks prime for the Illawarra.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 18:04

That storm in Bathurst looks insane. 41.6mm so far with temps down to 15.4c from a top of 31.8c earlier today.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 18:06

Looks like a nice line forming on the Tablelands from Bathurst Northwards, hopefully it maintains, and provides a good drink.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 18:11

Heres how the storms appear on Weatherzone layers:



Bathurst had 41.6 mm in an hour.

You can aes also see on the map the edge of the marine crap near Newcastle and the boundary between warm and cold waters out to sea.

Even if the storms can't reach here, the anvils have. It's been very gloomy, you can hardly believe it's two hours to sunset.

EDIT: if you take away the lightning, there are a few red patches - i.e. cloud tops at about -75 degrees C. Taking 6 degrees per 1,000 m and assuming 20 at sea level, that would correspond to cloud tops at about 16,000 metres. The radar shows a few bright magneta (i.e. black) cores, one South of Bathurst, one North of Oberon, one near Kandos.
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 18:13

Up to 47mm at Bathurst AP, they got hammered out there. Good top-up for them, not sure how dry it is out that way though.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 18:23

The forecast tomorrow looks pretty conservative in terms of thunderstorms with the forecast description saying "the chance of a thunderstorm" for the Illawarra.
Posted by: Quagmelson

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 18:31

Constant deep thunder here from kandos line. Its not usual to hear thunder from that far away here. Completely overcast and almost mizzly. Maybe theres some anvil creepers going on.
Posted by: Surly Bond

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 18:50

Amazing that so much activity on the imagery should produce not one drop of rain.
Posted by: DMK

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 19:11

Very dry up here, we're on water restrictions.

The storm was pretty intense, although it really skimmed to the north of the town, then got followed up by a cell to the south. Think I may have got just a few mm in total. BOM is showing 5mm for Stanley St in town, 47mm for the airport AWS!

Looks like the usual airport webcam didn't last after 5:50pm. The Pipers Airfield cams are still operating and showing the remnants of the storm. Would have been good to view around 5pm! It looked amazing live, heaps of chunky lightning strikes and turquoise clouds.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 19:11

Anvil rain starting to creep into the outer western suburbs. Not expecting anything more than anvil rain tbh.
Posted by: Homer

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 19:43

Originally Posted By: Sidney
Anvil rain starting to creep into the outer western suburbs. Not expecting anything more than anvil rain tbh.

It's better than nothing Sidney, particularly when Bom's forecast pretty much only had light drizzle.
We're getting some big drops here now and I have heard some thunder. Wonder how long before they update?
Posted by: Quagmelson

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 19:45

Moderate rain has set in with the occasional close rumble. Better than 4cast. Edit. Close flash now, up to 1.5mm. Good stuff Homer
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 19:46

Yeah it looks like its actually holding. Theres stuff forming offshore as well

edit: bom updated the forecast for thunder in the far west
Posted by: EddyG

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 19:51

Originally Posted By: Quagmelson
Moderate rain has set in with the occasional close rumble. Better than 4cast. Edit. Close flash now, up to 1.5mm. Good stuff Homer


Your'e just a storm magnet atm Quaggy!!

I can't see why these storms wouldn't reach the coast.

Winds here are light and variable. I can't believe how dark it got so early this evening.
Posted by: Quagmelson

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 20:07

Just got home too Ed!
Posted by: Perfect Storm

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 20:13

Starting to rain here, decent sized drops.

Hopefully a few decent mms before the heat ramps up in the coming days. smile

Edit: picking up quite markedly but not moderate rain just yet.

Edit 2: we must have been under the smallest yellow patch that's shown up on radar, rain has eased back now.
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 20:21

That's a La-nina-esque radar loop there for Syd. Someone is gonna cop it big if that onshore stuff moves in
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 20:23

BoM has now updated it to west. from far west. Wonder if they are going to update it again once it reaches the city? wink
Posted by: Rainbow Spirit

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 20:23

Light rain has just started here, looks like some decent falls on the way. Most unexpected.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 20:30

Look at those storms forming near home while I'm not there lol
Posted by: Homer

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 20:42

Originally Posted By: EddyG
Originally Posted By: Quagmelson
Moderate rain has set in with the occasional close rumble. Better than 4cast. Edit. Close flash now, up to 1.5mm. Good stuff Homer


Your'e just a storm magnet atm Quaggy!!

I can't see why these storms wouldn't reach the coast.

Winds here are light and variable. I can't believe how dark it got so early this evening.


Anvils maybe making it darker, with the scud underneath providing a double blanket?

Anyway, lol at the Bom update within the last 20 minutes. They must read these forums.
Posted by: Perfect Storm

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 20:44

Soft rumbles increasing to a louder rumble and the sky being lit up. It'll either hit us or just miss me according to radar. See what happens.

The rumbles and rain are nice, though. So unexpected! Nice. smile

Edit: Nice and steady rain, borderline moderate. Beautiful
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 20:49

Haha just noticed the update. Went from 'far-west' to 'west' then now it just says 'chance of an evening thunderstorm' All within a 40 minute time frame.


Getting moderate rain under my area Looks like a heavier embedded cell formed north of Camden. Moving slowly towards my place.
Posted by: Stormy3

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 20:49

Good looking cell off the coast down there as well,it looks to be moving in.
Posted by: Quagmelson

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 21:01

4 BOM updates in an hour. New record?!.
Posted by: Perfect Storm

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 21:05

It must be Quagmelson.

Nice CC's rumbling away. This garden variety storm is of welcome change to the chaotic and severe storms of late.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 21:31

Cells in Sydney's West are shrivelling. Those out to sea are growing.

EDIT: just looked out. There's been no rain or thunder here. I saw some distant sheet lightning way off to the East. That might be all the storm I get here today.
Posted by: Marts

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 21:55

It's looking that way for here atm as well going by the radar Steve.

I'm seeing lots of flashes and getting some rumbles off the coast but that's about it for now by the look of it.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 22:14

Looks like its ended for today with winds swinging back to SE's.

Could still hear it rumbling out to sea which is insane, hope the dampness would assist with storm development tomorrow.
Posted by: eauetsoleil

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 10/01/2019 23:07

Pretty spectacular lightning show highly visible in the Eastern sky about 10pm out to sea from around my place.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 07:38

Interesting day ahead...another shortwave trough pushing through inland NSW now, better moisture with it. If the murk can clear we should see storms across Eastern NSW, likely severe in plenty of areas.
Posted by: Jac0b

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 08:05

Last night was a good surprise light show since cloudy stratus days with southerlies don't usually end with lightning. And the low stratus seemed to clear just in time to have a good view of the east where the lightning was.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 08:22

The stratus is back but the cicadas have started again after a day off yesterday. Hopefully that's a good sign.

Yes, that was a surprise light show last night. I took a short video but the flashes mostly occurred where my camera wasn't pointing.

I hope this doesn't become a pattern for Summer - 100% low stratus overcast whenever the wind is in the SE quarter for more than a few hours.
Posted by: EddyG

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 08:43

No low scud here, just some high cloud about and its already nice and warm here, currently 26.5c Dewpoint 22c Humidity 75%, breeze is light from the north.

Fingers crossed for some action.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 08:49

Cells already formed near orange and parkes.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 09:06

I think the stratus will burn off; can already see the feint outline of the sun. All in all bodes well for potential severe storm day. Waiting to see the BoM's take on it; but I'd assume a large swathe will be at risk today. Sounding show's that stable maritime layer nicely but I'd expect with some heating that will quickly convect and it looks very unstable above that. Add to that the advection by the approaching short wave trough and it may explode. Or it may not lol.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 09:15

Yeah Kino should be pretty good today considering last night got heavy showers that formed near and off the coast.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 09:21

Suns starting to peak here the marine layer is starting to become patchy.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 09:29

My storm record so far this season:

July, August: none
Sept: 7, 26, 28
Oct : 10, 17, 18, 20
Nov : 2, 28
Dec : 13, 14, 15, 19, 20, 31
Jan : 5

So it's a very good season so far, with 16 storm days to date, a couple of them quite memorable, a few of the days having multiple cells.
Posted by: Jac0b

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 09:50

I remember there was a storm in Parramatta in the middle of July just last winter. There were a few very small cells from the west, in a somewhat similar setup to a typical summer afternoon, except it was only about 17įC.

But the storm cells had very high bases and their vertical development was much less. It was very strange since mid-July is probably the least likely time to get a storm in Sydney.
Posted by: Jimi

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 10:43

The BOM has gone even colder on prospects for Sydney today with a 9:24am update removing the thunderstorm icon (though keeping a chance of a storm in the text).
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 12:39

Originally Posted By: BOM
Sydney area
Partly cloudy. Patchy sea fog in the north. Medium (40%) chance of showers in the east, grading to a high (70%) chance in the west, most likely during this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and evening, most likely in the west. Light winds becoming northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h in the middle of the day then decreasing to 20 to 30 km/h in the evening.

This is an 11:24 update interesting for sea fog in the north. But sun is out here bankstown already hit 30.4 at 11:24 but we've slightly cooled off to 27.9 my neighbours's PWS reading 29.5 degrees.
Posted by: EddyG

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 13:00

I see Newcastle is still under a southerly breeze, meanwhile up at the bay the Nor-easter kicked in quite early this morning.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 13:25

Coastwatch webcam shows Narabeen fogged in: Narrabeen Webcam

There's a sea breeze in Sydney now and OH had dropped back from a likely max of 27.9 just before Noon. It's sunny, warm and humid here today, 28-29 on the car thermometer.

EDIT: storms are approaching the Blue Mountains and Southern Highlands from the West, unlike yesterday moving at a moderate pace.
Posted by: Longys

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 13:39

Yeah starting to look ominous to the west and southwest of here.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 13:51

holy mother of temp drops. Goulburn down to 13.8c right now.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 14:03

Detailed Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for HEAVY RAINFALL and LARGE HAILSTONES

For Katoomba storm.
Posted by: EddyG

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 14:17

Originally Posted By: Sidney
holy mother of temp drops. Goulburn down to 13.8c right now.


Not to mention 37mm in half an hour too.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 14:27

Weird just heard a rumble when closest storm is at blackheath. Must be an anvil crawler.
Posted by: Stormy3

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 14:28

Storm passed Katoomba.

https://www.scenicworld.com.au/explore-our-world/take-a-look/web-cam/
Posted by: Jac0b

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 14:33

I'm hearing thunder in Parramatta too. There is anvil cloud everywhere around so must be coming from there.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 15:08

Mammatus over Lane Cove:



I think that the Katoomba storm is winding down. The Southern Tablelands storms are keeping South of Goulburn.
Posted by: Longys

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 15:27

Been rumbling for an hour. No rain and no lightning.
Posted by: DVC

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 15:27

Just had the best storm in a while massive temp drop, hail, downpours, started up again 17mm in my gauge heavy thunder airport approaching 40mm already
Posted by: Jac0b

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 16:06

There's a massive system of storms with huge black cores between Yass and Orange on the 256km radar; they are moving east. According to the lightning tracker they are producing an insane amount of lightning as well.
Posted by: Jac0b

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 16:07

There is even another colour inside the black core. Never seen that before.
Posted by: SteveB93

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 16:10

Got family in the small township of Rugby east of Boorowa looks like it's about to get smashed.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 16:11

Thats one insane supercell. Looks likes it headed straight for sydney.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 16:13

I don't want to jinx it Sidney shocked.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 16:18

Gee that satpic is pretty with all those tear-drop storms (prob supercells) right across the whole of NSW. Now hope they push east smile
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 16:42

The satpic shows a line of storms extending NW from Merimbula to the NE corner of South Australia. Except on the far South coast, none of them look like reaching the coast at this stage.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 16:45

Originally Posted By: Jac0b
There is even another colour inside the black core. Never seen that before.


Been happening a bit lately....like a tan colour. I have observed it in a number of the big supercells in the last month.

29c here and humid. Definitely not as much heat in the ground as yesterday around here. Hopefully the shear can carry some storms into the lower Hunter today. Desperate for a drink.
Posted by: kizz

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 16:57

We better get something. A whole afternoon of overcast anvillus-crapulus is not very exciting.
Especially after yesterday's dreary strato-nonsense.
Posted by: EddyG

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 16:59

Looks like another case of storms to the north and storms to the south for the Hunter again.
At least there is some clear air so to speak for development to occur, one can hope anyway.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 17:15

Im gonna guess that by the time those storms get here it will turn into thundery rain. Hope im wrong.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 17:21

perfect, book me in for 2 hours of thundery rain. zero interest in the farm being smashed by hail or 100k winds in the middle of a never ending drought. VOTE 1 thundery rain
Posted by: Longys

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 17:23

Looks like something significant heading straight for Putty on the 128km radar
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 17:24

Originally Posted By: GringosRain
perfect, book me in for 2 hours of thundery rain. zero interest in the farm being smashed by hail or 100k winds in the middle of a never ending drought. VOTE 1 thundery rain


Oh thundery rain would be perfect for farmers but its kinda boring to watch. I'm not wanting anything severe, just some wind driven heavy rain would do the trick.
Posted by: EddyG

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 17:27

Originally Posted By: GringosRain
perfect, book me in for 2 hours of thundery rain. zero interest in the farm being smashed by hail or 100k winds in the middle of a never ending drought. VOTE 1 thundery rain


Yes you wouldn't want what Walcha experienced on the 20th December last year.
https://www.armidaleexpress.com.au/story...-memory/?cs=471
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 17:28

Originally Posted By: Longys
Looks like something significant heading straight for Putty on the 128km radar


We are basically due east of putty by 65ks. I think that storm might turn and run more easterly. The shear shouldnt have the much SW in it, so Im thinking its trajectory might shift. Dont want any black in it if it does reach here.....
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 17:41

I doubt that we'll even get thundery rain but we shall see.

Next on the agenda seems to be heat. Tomorrow will be fairly hot, followed by a bit of a cooldown for Sunday and Monday (hopefully no more stratus).

Then, starting from the 15th, GFS shows a pretty intense heatwave, lasting maybe a week or more, for inland parts of the state. 850 temps over the Central part of the state, including Sydney, are up to 28 on Wednesday 17th. The heat doesn't look like reaching the beach, general circulation is weak N-NW, but it will reach Sydney's West and most of the Hunter. Surface temperatures in Western Sydney are over 44 next Wednesday and Thursday afternoons 16th-17th.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 17:53

Originally Posted By: Steve777
The satpic shows a line of storms extending NW from Merimbula to the NE corner of South Australia. Except on the far South coast, none of them look like reaching the coast at this stage.


Storms pushing to here and thunder just heard.
Posted by: Homer

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 18:01

Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Steve777
The satpic shows a line of storms extending NW from Merimbula to the NE corner of South Australia. Except on the far South coast, none of them look like reaching the coast at this stage.


Storms pushing to here and thunder just heard.


I just heard a rumble as well. Rain just about to start here.
However, whether we get thundery rain or storms remains to be seen I suppose.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 18:18

Looks like a carbon copy of yesterday? Some embedded cells starting to form in the thundery rain. One east of Nowra and another near Bilpin.
Posted by: corsto

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 18:28

Looks like storms north of newcastle are moving south, whilst the main line to the south is creeping north. haven't seen that before
Posted by: EddyG

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 18:31

Originally Posted By: corsto
Looks like storms north of newcastle are moving south, whilst the main line to the south is creeping north. haven't seen that before


It would be nice to see a bit of convergence, it would make a lot of Novacastrians happy!!
Posted by: Quagmelson

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 18:43

More good falls for catchment
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 18:55

Looks like there's a storm line firming up within the showery mass and the thunder is getting a lot closer now after light rain for a while.
Posted by: Homer

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 18:57

Almost 80 mm's for Bathurst AP over the past 26 hrs. That's a nice drop for out there.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 19:03

Originally Posted By: Homer
Almost 80 mm's for Bathurst AP over the past 26 hrs. That's a nice drop for out there.


Their monthly total & more! Impressive.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 19:16

Starting to get some nice coool outflow winds. Rain is ramping up a little.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 19:20

Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Homer
Almost 80 mm's for Bathurst AP over the past 26 hrs. That's a nice drop for out there.


Their monthly total & more! Impressive.


Dave will be happy. Get them ready for whats to come....
Posted by: DMK

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 19:30

Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Homer
Almost 80 mm's for Bathurst AP over the past 26 hrs. That's a nice drop for out there.


Their monthly total & more! Impressive.


Dave will be happy. Get them ready for whats to come....

It depends where you are... Stanley St gauge in town is showing only 19mm so far, compared to the airport at 79mm. I suspect areas east of Bathurst would be approaching 100mm already. The dams out near Glanmire will be full, that's for sure!

The storm today has again been doing its best to dodge town. Hopefully the next line forming near Orange brings something more substantial.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 19:45

Light, steady non-thundery rain in Chatswood.
Posted by: Quagmelson

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 19:47

Light, steady, slightly thundery rain in Glenorie, nearly hit 1mm.
Posted by: DerekHV

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 19:55

No sign of thunderstorms, very hot and humid here today though, more late summerish.
Posted by: Homer

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 19:56

Thunder rumbles getting louder and steady rain with big drops continuing here. Don't think we'll get anything severe, but these daily rains have the lawns growing like triffids.
Every sunny day, you can feel the humidity/moisture oozing out of the ground.
As summers go, this one has been terrific. Plenty of warm days. Plenty of storms. And, the occasional day of cooler southerlies and scud - mother nature's air-con.
Posted by: Stormy3

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 20:04

Plenty of lightning and distant thunder here out to my west, but as it moves this way, they slowly fizzle out.bugger.
Posted by: Perfect Storm

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 20:06

Wonderful and steady rain, a period of earlier rumbles has since quietened down.

Just lovely.
Posted by: DVC

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 20:21

31.2mm and soft rain falling still, four separate cells have been over.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 20:25

Steady rain here too with very irregular close lightning strikes with loud rumbles.
Posted by: dknever

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 20:42

Steady rain here too, lovely weather. Next week looks like no rain unless i'm reading it wrong.
Posted by: Jimi

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 20:57

Drying up now over this way which is a shame, another disappointment (perhaps we're getting greedy)... Should have trusted the BOM
Posted by: Longys

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 21:17

Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Originally Posted By: Longys
Looks like something significant heading straight for Putty on the 128km radar


We are basically due east of putty by 65ks. I think that storm might turn and run more easterly. The shear shouldnt have the much SW in it, so Im thinking its trajectory might shift. Dont want any black in it if it does reach here.....


How did you go?
Posted by: J Pabo

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 21:20

Originally Posted By: EddyG
Originally Posted By: corsto
Looks like storms north of newcastle are moving south, whilst the main line to the south is creeping north. haven't seen that before


It would be nice to see a bit of convergence, it would make a lot of Novacastrians happy!!


Not really, last time that happened in Dec 96 Singo got hail that where the sizes of grapefruit! I particularly don't want to go thru that again.
Posted by: J Pabo

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 21:25

At the moment, nice light show, rumbles and cooler breeze, with some teardrops falling from the sky.

I say is time for some SRV.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 21:44

U there Stormy? Finally eh?
Posted by: lightning chaser

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 21:44

Just got home from storm chasing. I didnít end up with any great footage despite being in the vicinity of multiple storms around crookwell and gunning. I was surprised by the early storms moving se towards Goulburn, I thought they would move east to crookwell. Had a few close strikes while driving but widespread rain made filming them difficult.
There was enough cloud that I couldnít see updrafts on most storms today, Most just looked like rain monsters with patches of quality lightning ( until I pointed a video camera at it in some cases). The only storm displaying base structure I saw was a distant view of a splitting cell near cootamundra from memory about 330 pm. I thought I could intercept the left mover heading towards Boorowa/ crookwell but a poor choice of roads left me with only a distant view of a CG barrage ( barely in thunder range).
By 5 pm it was obvious things were tending to thundery rain and I headed home, delayed twice by brief patches of lightning near crookwell and again near moss vale.
Posted by: Stormy3

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 21:50

Heaps of big booms and CG,lightning Funkyseefunkydo ,but not much rain as yet,the radar looks heavier then it is.might end up with a bit before long red on radar all around me,more storms developing further out to my west as well, inland areas are dong great.
Posted by: EddyG

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 21:53

Originally Posted By: J Pabo
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Originally Posted By: corsto
Looks like storms north of newcastle are moving south, whilst the main line to the south is creeping north. haven't seen that before


It would be nice to see a bit of convergence, it would make a lot of Novacastrians happy!!


Not really, last time that happened in Dec 96 Singo got hail that where the sizes of grapefruit! I particularly don't want to go thru that again.


I remember that storm quite well, but I was hoping a convergence of rain rather than severe storms.
Posted by: Stormy3

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 22:29

Just good soaking moderate rain here,but the amount of thunder and lightning you would think we should be getting a deluge out of it.
Posted by: DVC

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 22:45

and another small cell makes five for the day, fantastic!
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 22:49

Originally Posted By: Longys
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Originally Posted By: Longys
Looks like something significant heading straight for Putty on the 128km radar


We are basically due east of putty by 65ks. I think that storm might turn and run more easterly. The shear shouldnt have the much SW in it, so Im thinking its trajectory might shift. Dont want any black in it if it does reach here.....


How did you go?


pretty much 2 hours of thundery rain as requested. Only up to 10mm, but Im just really happy to get anything at the moment. I would say around pokolbin could have had 25-40mm. Still raining.
Now to buckle down, could get 46 degree temps this time next week...
Posted by: Surly Bond

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 11/01/2019 23:40

Despite all the sound and fury painted each day on the infra-red, radar and lightning images, the BoM map of rainfall totals for the last week confirms that no rain fell on the north-west slopes of NSW.
Is there a word for this kind of weather?
I think the rain all evaporated above 5000 feet.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 12/01/2019 08:22

Bright and sunny with light Westerlies and cicadas this morning. Total rain overnight at nearby stations Chatswood and OH came to about 4 mm.

The Central and Southern Tablelands have done very well out of this event, with Bathurst picking up 92 mm since the 8th. Goulburn has picked up 60 mm, Mount Boyce also about 60 and Merriwa in the Upper Hunter 42. There were also reports of hail, damaging winds and spectacular lightning. As happens with storms, high rainfall totals were a bit of a hit or miss affair.

In Sydney, it's been a bit of a fizzer. Storms reached Sydney's West as a shadow of their Tableland selves, while Eastern Sydney, including this area, got periods of light rain, drizzle and a distant light show.

It will be interesting to see what the rainfall maps will show for the 24 hours to 9:00 today and the for last 7 days, when available.
Posted by: EddyG

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 12/01/2019 10:28

1.3mm is all we got here last night from those decaying storms. I did mange to see the odd distant flash too.

First morning in a while that I have seen clear clean skies, already warm and humid too.
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 12/01/2019 10:31

And guess what I "received" from this event whistle crazy whistle crazy

mad mad mad
Posted by: EddyG

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 12/01/2019 10:40

Originally Posted By: Adaminaby Angler
And guess what I "received" from this event whistle crazy whistle crazy

mad mad mad


A new name??? wink
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 12/01/2019 10:43

Originally Posted By: EddyG
A new name??? wink


Aye...took inspiration from the tackle store wink

The property back at Shooters/Springs was in fact my brother'sócommuted many times from here to his place, but always never bothered to update location on my profile laugh

And with the storms the CT received...looks like some bad timing on my part! mad
Posted by: Stormy3

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 12/01/2019 11:16

Warming up fast here clear and sunny.light NE winds.might see another storm later.
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 12/01/2019 11:28

Think very unlikely stormy. I hope you are right though....
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 12/01/2019 11:33

Originally Posted By: EddyG
Originally Posted By: Adaminaby Angler
And guess what I "received" from this event whistle crazy whistle crazy

mad mad mad


A new name??? wink


Hahaha laugh

It's always the way AA. You're not home and the storms hit there. Happened to me the other night!!
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 12/01/2019 12:41

Storms and rain aren't expected today, so this map - rainfall for the week ending 9:00 this morning - would be close to a final wrap up for the event.



Note: It also includes the storms on the 5th, the tail-end of the last event. These were concentrated mainly on parts of Sydney and the Central Coast and a bullseye near Kiama. Other areas got much less. The storms since the 8th affected mainly the Tablelands.
Posted by: Stormy3

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 12/01/2019 13:34

There is a few cumulus rising up to my west nothing build into storms yet.
Posted by: Perfect Storm

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 12/01/2019 13:49

Wonder why no mention of storms today from the BoM when GFS is showing some potential?
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 12/01/2019 13:55

Originally Posted By: Steve777
Storms and rain aren't expected today, so this map - rainfall for the week ending 9:00 this morning - would be close to a final wrap up for the event.



Note: It also includes the storms on the 5th, the tail-end of the last event. These were concentrated mainly on parts of Sydney and the Central Coast and a bullseye near Kiama. Other areas got much less. The storms since the 8th affected mainly the Tablelands.
This would be the map you're after Steve to include the weekly rainfall to 9am this morning smile
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 12/01/2019 14:07

Originally Posted By: Perfect Storm
Wonder why no mention of storms today from the BoM when GFS is showing some potential?


CAP seems really high though. BoM does mention the potential for blue mountains for arvo storms which makes sense. Probably on the boundary with the sea breeze.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 12/01/2019 14:23

Wonder if the southerly tonight would spark a few showers. Anyones thoughts?
Posted by: Perfect Storm

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 12/01/2019 14:37

Thanks Sidney, I thought that may be the case. Given the amount of heat could it be possibly overcome? Li and Cape forecasts look great this arvo.

I've tried to learn how to read the soundings a number of times but I've never quite gotten the hang of it.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 12/01/2019 17:33

Thank you Seabreeze. Got my dates mixed up.
Posted by: DerekHV

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 12/01/2019 18:03

No storms on the horizon here, just relentless blistering heat, with brief humid changes.
Heatwave conditions looking at starting form the 15th Jan as well.
Posted by: ozthunder

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 14/01/2019 09:51

Was off work Friday so chased out to Gunning, NSW. Initial storms were best, briefly severe for wind and rain rates. Dust raised around Gunning, then at Goulburn some flash flooding.

But in what has been the hallmark for this season the storms soon became an outflow mess.
Posted by: ozthunder

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 14/01/2019 21:09

Here is my chase video from Friday 11/1/2019



Watch on YT for full HD
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 - 15/01/2019 10:41

Great storm video Ozthunder.

---

I thought I'd again post state rainfall totals for the past week, which leave of the end of the previous event. The following covers the period 9:00 January 7 - 9:00 yesterday 14th. I checked the dates this time It includes only the current even, plus whatever small amounts fell in the couple of days before or after:



So the Central and Southern Tablelands did well, with useful falls extending into the Central and Southern slopes and plains. Coastal regions North of the Illawarra didn't do so well.