Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019

Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 07:00

Squally snow showers continue this morn'. smile
Posted by: Snowmaker

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 08:40

Originally Posted By: Adaminaby Angler
Squally snow showers continue this morn'. smile


Much settling on the ground AA?
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 09:30

Originally Posted By: Snowmaker
Originally Posted By: Adaminaby Angler
Squally snow showers continue this morn'. smile


Much settling on the ground AA?

Settling nicely up at my altitude, and perhaps the first properly-settled snowfall of 2019 for Lake Eucumbene itself (1,154 m AMSL).

I'm reading 0.8 C as of now; 2.1 C at Cabramurra.
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 10:10

From the temperature/precip numbers, I'd be reasonably confident that Bombala (~700m) got a bit of snow this morning.
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 10:26

Also just saw a report of snow at Crookwell.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 10:40

Change just moving through the Illawarra basin now. Winds picking up and stratocumulus screaming in from the sw.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 11:01

Goulburn down to 3.7 so I'm not surprised at snow around Crookwell. This change is packing more punch than I expected, especially in terms of precip.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 12:10

Bloody freezing here now - only 14c but feels like 4c!!! Wouldn't be surprised if there was some flurries up on the higher peaks.
Posted by: Homer

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 12:18

Orange down to 1.5 at 12.00 pm and 4 mm's in the can so Canobolas would be getting some love.
Colder air pushing through south west Sydney now. Camden has dropped almost 6 degrees in the last hour.

TH radar is on the blink as well.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 12:37

Reports of heavy snow falling at Sunny Corner and temp 1.1C and doesn't look like it's stopping any time soon.

Even the upper BMs would be awfully close to snow at this point.
Posted by: Westerly Wind

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 12:39

Just started snowing on and off here in the CBD of Orange in the last five minutes.
Posted by: snowforus

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 12:39

Snowing in Lithgow at 12.30
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 12:40

Also reports of snow at Millthorpe.
Posted by: Snowmaker

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 12:41

Reports of snow just north of goulburn, 700masl
Posted by: Homer

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 12:41

Anyone notice that Woolbrook got 940 mm's in the gauge last night?
lol.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 12:42

Originally Posted By: Snowmaker
Reports of snow just north of goulburn, 700masl


5.5 in the SH. Snow here (Bowral) might be wishful thinking though!! Very bleak, cold and cloudy though.

That's a lot Homer, shame it wasn't cold enough for snow there!! poke Actually probably dodged a bullet..

Oh and thanks for those stats on June temps a few pages back Jac0b.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 12:45

Originally Posted By: Homer
Anyone notice that Woolbrook got 940 mm's in the gauge last night?
lol.


Yeah saw a 940mm bulb on the WZ radar this morning.

Change has moved into here with very gusty winds and some blown dust from nearby construction. There's also a bit of rain, enough to make the ground wettish.
Posted by: Homer

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 13:02

91 km/h wind gusts have been recorded at Kurnell, Sydney AP, High Range and Thredbo TS.
Posted by: snowforus

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 13:06

Snow starting to settle in places. Very windy too.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 13:12

Very windy, dark and it's turned much cooler in the last 45 minutes or so. Sydney Airport now on 12.5, down from a max of 20.7.

Meanwhile Sydney OH has probably had just its second sub-20 max so far this month.

EDIT: apparent temperature at the Airport is -0.01.
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 13:16

Well this was certainly an unexpected overperformance!

Thought the moisture would've fizzled-out just north of Conroys Gap...bloody wrong, and glad to be. Not often does a South-Westerly front penetrate to the coastline (especially as northerly as Sydney), either.

Clearing up a little here, but still bloody cold; 1.2 C at 1:18 PM, with 2.3 C at Cabramurra and >40 knot squalls at times earlier on. eek
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 13:19

Snow in Blackheath! Prob deserves it's own thread now.
Posted by: Kino

NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 13:20

Deserves it's own thread now being as snow is falling across central and southern highlands when not expected. Frigid sw'erlies also penetrating to the coastal areas, with many places experiencing 'feels like' temps in single digits - very uncomfortable given sat was 26 here in Wollongong!
Posted by: snowforus

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 13:23

Just below 1C now. The flakes are 1-2 cm. It's hard to see how can get much of a cover with the warm ground beneath.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 13:26

Settling snow right across the ranges now - impressive for May! Models defin undercooked this baby!
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 13:28

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_conti...Glet6zmXoY390AI

Blackheath snow!
Posted by: alby_14

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 13:28

Settling in Oberon but its starting to ease. Enough to have a play and make a snowman
Posted by: snowforus

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 13:29

Nearing the end, I think. It has snowed for nearly an hour and the temperature bottomed out at just above 0.
Posted by: alby_14

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 13:30

Settling in Oberon, enough to make a snowman and have a play. Ill post some pics later
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 13:30

I would say maybe not - colder air and more moisture surging in from the sw now across Vic!
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 13:31

Cheers Alby!!! smile
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 13:32

Snow clouds here in the 'Gong, clearly won't settle, but a very deep-wintery looking sky!
Posted by: DaveM

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 13:35

Enjoy Alby 😁

Chilly in Bx at about 3 degrees, dropped rapidly with the front.

Main fun probably done now. Reports of snow in Millthorpe and some light faleage in Orange. Cloud braking up in Bx
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 13:36

Looking great in the snowies! https://www.facebook.com/thedenman/photos/a.413111268388/10157169444408389/?type=3&theater
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 13:38

Going by radar Bowral may be in with a chance in the next hour of some flakes!
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 13:39

EC has 850 temps at 0 degrees this arvo although restricted to the tablelands although ranging from 1-3 on the coast. Definitely very cold air moving, nice to see a break from the record warmth. This cool air should carry on.
Posted by: Snowmaker

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 13:40

Originally Posted By: Kino
Going by radar Bowral may be in with a chance in the next hour of some flakes!


Yeah just saw the radar Kino, bugger I'm down at uni in the gong! Will be absolutely kicking myself if they get even a single flake and i miss it!
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 13:45

Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
EC has 850 temps at 0 degrees this arvo although restricted to the tablelands although ranging from 1-3 on the coast. Definitely very cold air moving, nice to see a break from the record warmth. This cool air should carry on.


Yeah looks like winter has arrived early! Not supposed to be here for another 6 days wink grin
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 14:31

Wow, we just had a huge squall through with a heavy burst of rain. Probably 70-80kms wind. Temp dropped from 18 to 11 degree currently. A bit of punch!
Posted by: Stormy3

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 14:39

Same here mate the cold change has hit
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 14:45

Snow south of Orange!

https://www.facebook.com/SNOWSEARCH.australia/videos/337957830222091/?sk=h_chr
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 14:48

Sunny Corner - not so sunny it seems!

[img]https://scontent-syd2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t...750&oe=5D99C602[/img]
Posted by: Jac0b

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 14:55

It's great to read all these snow reports, especially in May!

Would this be comparable to the cold outbreak of late May 2000?
Posted by: Stormy3

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 15:00

Down to 9 deg in Cessnock with strong winds and heavy bursts of rain
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 15:02

Since i would have been 2 year old back in 2000 i wouldn't know much. But a quick google search i found an article that details the event. Looks to be much more powerful than this event. With snow even falling down to Springwood which is actually bonkers.
Posted by: kizz

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 15:12

I remember the 2000 event when it passed over Sydney on Saturday afternoon. GF and myself just got back from shopping and the clouds had a much more threatening and chunkier look than today.

More memorable was the following Monday. Sunny day. Very windy. Temperature didn't get past 13.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 15:12

Thursdays front looks strong too; with a deep southerly fetch almost to Antartica. Gunna be a cold week.
Posted by: lab276

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 15:12

At last, unexpectedly cloudy too. Not a drop of rain though.
Posted by: Jimi

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 15:19

Originally Posted By: Sidney
Since i would have been 2 year old back in 2000 i wouldn't know much. But a quick google search i found an article that details the event. Looks to be much more powerful than this event. With snow even falling down to Springwood which is actually bonkers.


Worth a read - the only snowy NRL game

https://www.playersvoice.com.au/joel-caine-the-day-the-nrl-froze/

https://twitter.com/NFSAonline/status/1011376008057053184
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 15:24



IMPRESSIVE for end of May! Look how far south that trough/front is dragging the cold air up from.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 15:37

Great to see the snow videos. That was unexpected.

No snow here of course. It's cold and windy, with the Sun coming out in the last half hour. It was an interesting sky a little while ago:



(Chatswood in the foreground).
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 16:18

About time.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 16:24

Really cooled down here. Nobbys down to 11.5 with an app temp of 3.9. If you look at coastal obs it coldest on coast.
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 16:48

Definitely still a long way short of the 2000 event.

Canberra's maximum to date today is 9.1, which if it holds will be the coldest May day since 2000 - but well above the 4.3 which happened that day (which is actually one of the two coldest days in any month of the last 50 years).

In the 2000 event snow fell to ~250m in northeast Victoria.
Posted by: Jac0b

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 17:20

Thanks for the responses; some very interesting comparisons there between May 2000 and this event. That 4.3 in Canberra is extraordinary for the time of year.
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 18:08

Looks like we'll be extending this thread for some time maybe even the 5th of June. EC wants a cold pool to form throwing up an Retrograding ECL up the coast.
Dumping snow on the Ranges all the way up to Oberon in a straight line. With 38.8 cms on Shooters Hill. Even snow in Canberra. Bullish to say the least.
Obviously not buying it but has been consistent for 2 runs in a row.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 18:58

Originally Posted By: Snowmaker
Originally Posted By: Kino
Going by radar Bowral may be in with a chance in the next hour of some flakes!


Yeah just saw the radar Kino, bugger I'm down at uni in the gong! Will be absolutely kicking myself if they get even a single flake and i miss it!


Hey I can confirm that it didn't snow so you didn't miss out.
Posted by: Snowmaker

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 19:03

Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Originally Posted By: Snowmaker
Originally Posted By: Kino
Going by radar Bowral may be in with a chance in the next hour of some flakes!


Yeah just saw the radar Kino, bugger I'm down at uni in the gong! Will be absolutely kicking myself if they get even a single flake and i miss it!


Hey I can confirm that it didn't snow so you didn't miss out.


Awesome to hear mate grin temp at home here in Bowral maxed out at 10.2C at 10am, then didnt get much above 6C for the rest of the day!
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 19:14

Yeah it was horrible!! Got a few rain bands too which I didn't expect.

Well August has blessed us early with pleasant 80+ km/h gusts. Can't wait for a few more days of this rubbish. At least Sydney only gets the strong winds (which usually aren't that strong anyway) for a day or so and then it drops.
Posted by: ipex

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 19:31

I was quite surprised while having lunch at the Fairmont Resort in Leura today when it snowed at several points. The longest was for about 10 minutes' duration and it was quite heavy for several mins. No settling though - well, just a little on the car. Car thermometer said 3 degrees when I left at about 2pm - which again, was quite a surprise!
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 20:49

Current feels like temp here is 0c!
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 21:09

The snow videos here seem to be showing proper, fluffy snow, big flakes, even if it isn't settling.

My niece sent me this picture of snow in a playground at Jindabyne (915 metres). Again, it doesn't seem to be settling but a good effort for May, hopefully a harbinger of things to come:

Posted by: alby_14

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 27/05/2019 22:08

Driving home from Orange to Bathurst this morning the temp dropped from 5 degrees to 3. Fairly constant rain and drizzle with the odd smattering of borderline snowflakes half way home. Had the 3 year old with me so decided to forego a warm house and chanced finding some snow at Oberon. Started encountering some flakes about 10km out of Oberon and by the time we arrived it was just settling in town. Wasn't alot, but still nice to see something. A hot chocolate and some deep fried fatty goodness warmed us up before we headed home and hour later with the snow already melting.



Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 28/05/2019 08:28

MSLP chart looks good for late Wednesday into Thursday morning. If theres a bit of moisture could be a nice little round 2

As some others have mentioned the May 2000 event, in a memory stretching from the late 80s to 2017 in the BMs, it was probably just about the best snow and general cold event I experienced there. The heavy snowfall of July 2015 was up there, but I think the May event just pipped it for the lower temps and snow at lower elevations.
Posted by: Mcbobbings

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 28/05/2019 09:45

Another recent good event was the October 2012 event, especially given it was out of Season.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 28/05/2019 11:33

Wednesday / Thursday is looking very interesting given the deep fetch of those winds. If there's some moisture we could see decent low level falls right up to around the BM's and maybe Barringtons. Should also give some May temps a shake now that there's been 2 days of cold temps preceding it.
Posted by: Snowmaker

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 28/05/2019 14:18

Thursday morning has the potential to be very cold across the CTs, SH and western Sydney areas with those very cold 850mb temps still hanging around. Cloud cover and winds should have died down by that time, but it all depends on the timing of when this happens! Might be able to get my own snowgun out for the first time this winter grin
Posted by: GringosRain

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 28/05/2019 15:57

GFS has even colder air coming through 10 days out with the 528 line reaching the CT's....bitter!
Posted by: Rob G

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 28/05/2019 16:33

All up 12mm here over the past two days, falling as rain and snow.
The cold outbreak IMO is overdue, considering how warm the last two weeks have been. This westerly regime is good for us rain wise, but the cold isnt great for the stock.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 28/05/2019 16:54

Not a drop of rain in Sydney in 22 days and just 15 mm in the last 46 days, compared to about 180 mm you would expect over a month and a half at this time of year. The forecast shows possible showers on the weekend, but these look hot or miss and basically coastal.

GFS shows another front late tomorrow into Thursday, maybe more tableland snow, but dry on the coast. Further out, as Gringos says, it shows a major cold outbreak in about 10 days - to be taken with a grain of salt. After that it shows a high pressure system planting itself over SE Australia out to the end of the run.

EDIT: 0.4mm fell at Sydney Airport late this morning. It seemed to be clear skies all day here, although a temperature dip at the Airport at 11:30 is consistent with a bit of rain.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 28/05/2019 17:58

Thursday morning looks incredibly cold.. Too bad the air is so dry otherwise places like Canberra may even get some flurries.

EDIT: Just looked into next week Thursday morning GFS. Thats just too good to be true ahha. 850mb temps down to -6c and 700mb down to -15c.
Posted by: Mcbobbings

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 28/05/2019 18:53

GFS always throws up monster fronts, but rarely gets them right. I do say rarely, I remember looking at gfs 10 or 11 days out from that big front that hit WA over Easter and thinking that youd never get snow in WA in April but what do you know! I still expect this front to disappear.
Posted by: kizz

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 28/05/2019 19:25

Originally Posted By: Steve777
Not a drop of rain in Sydney in 22 days and just 15 mm in the last 46 days, compared to about 180 mm you would expect over a month and a half at this time of year. The forecast shows possible showers on the weekend, but these look hot or miss and basically coastal.

EDIT: 0.4mm fell at Sydney Airport late this morning. It seemed to be clear skies all day here, although a temperature dip at the Airport at 11:30 is consistent with a bit of rain.

That 0.4mm at the airport is false. Clear skies all day including the airport.

Also let's not forget how wet March was. Most of Sydney received 150-300mm. My 3, 6 and 12 month totals are running near the long term average.
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 28/05/2019 19:44

It was on this day in 2000, the day of the big snow storm

http://www.australianweathernews.com/news/2000/05/20000528.html

The forecast chart for tomorrow looks strikingly similar, although moisture appears to be lacking and could mostly affect VIC.
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 28/05/2019 19:47

Starting to think late tomorrow night might deliver for the CT's. Maybe 5-10cm's on the ground in the usual places.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 28/05/2019 20:52

Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Starting to think late tomorrow night might deliver for the CT's. Maybe 5-10cm's on the ground in the usual places.


I reckon about 3cm max, but mostly around 1-2cm above 1000m. I just don't see the moisture for 5-10cm and the 500mb cold pool doesn't reach the CT's so it will be pretty stable.

Cool pics Steve

Also the wind is back to being regularly audible from inside after a brief hiatus earlier tonight. Gusting up to almost 70km/h and will probably get stronger.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 28/05/2019 21:04

Originally Posted By: Sidney
Thursday morning looks incredibly cold.. Too bad the air is so dry otherwise places like Canberra may even get some flurries.

EDIT: Just looked into next week Thursday morning GFS. Thats just too good to be true ahha. 850mb temps down to -6c and 700mb down to -15c.


I'd usually dismiss it completely but 850mb temps are expected to be about 0-2C from Monday for a few days before Thursday's front so it could be really interesting to see what happens when the air is already fairly cold. In fact Monday arvo and even Wednesday morning look quite close to snow in the CT's except too dry.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 13:31

Next front heading this way, looks like later tonight it'll push through, some very cold air with it (apparently there have been low level snow falls in Tas & Vic already).
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 14:08

Hearing chat about prospects for sleet in Melbourne CBD today? That would be extraordinary, surely?
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 14:33

Change not far away now - dark stratocu screaming in from the south west and wind increasing. Radar looks to have showers, maybe even flurries(?) over the Oberan plateau. 18.5 here only 14.9 in Nowra and plummeting.
Posted by: Snowmaker

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 14:38

Temp down to 5.9 at Goulburn and 7.2C on my PWS in Bowral. Breeze just picked up here in Wollongong and starting to feel a bit of bite in the air
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 15:04

Yeah change around Lake Illawarra now and should be in Wollongong in 20 mins I reckon. Temp already plummeting in Albion Park and Kiama. Interestingly winds not that strong as yet.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 15:04

Originally Posted By: Kino
Hearing chat about prospects for sleet in Melbourne CBD today? That would be extraordinary, surely?


Doubt it. As mentioned in the VIC chat maybe ontop of the taller buildings which go up to 250m.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 15:07

I don't - coldest air arriving now and with some downdraughts easily possible. The air is sure cold enough above it.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 15:30

Originally Posted By: Kino
I don't - coldest air arriving now and with some downdraughts easily possible. The air is sure cold enough above it.


We shall see. Aireys inlet got down to 6c with the front. What would an acceptable temp for sleet to appear. Id say around 3c.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 15:41

Sunny and windy here, feels much colder than the 19 degree maximum and 18 degrees now.
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 15:58

1.4 degrees at Cooma Airport and dropping. No precip yet, but at current wind speeds I suspect light/moderate snow wouldn't register in the AWS gauge.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 16:15

Originally Posted By: Kino
I don't - coldest air arriving now and with some downdraughts easily possible. The air is sure cold enough above it.


Never mind i was probably wrong. There are now storms that have started brewing in the bay. I guess if the downdraughts are strong enough it could bring some sleet near sea level.
Posted by: Jac0b

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 16:21

Imagine if this weather event occurred in July or August. There would literally be maximum temps of 3-4C in areas like Canberra and Bathurst. I hope these systems occur frequently throughout winter, it'll be interesting!
Posted by: DerekHV

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 16:30

Coldish again, but still not frost as yet.
Friday morning maybe an outside chance, we'll see.
Still got to 19C though today, pretty much an average winter's day here.
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 16:38

Another fresh snowfall today, and unusually cold for the time of year; 1.7 C here, with 2.8 C at Cabramurra; 4:36 PM.

As I recall, it hasn't gone above freezing for the entirety of daylight today; peaking at just over 1 C around 6:50 AM. eek
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 16:42

Originally Posted By: Adaminaby Angler
Another fresh snowfall today, and unusually cold for the time of year; 1.7 C here, with 2.8 C at Cabramurra; 4:36 PM.

As I recall, it hasn't gone above freezing for the entirety of daylight today; peaking at just over 1 C around 6:50 AM. eek


I'm real jealous. Sydney completely misses out on cold front events. If only this happened during the weekend so i could do some chasing.
Posted by: DVC

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 16:58

today we have gotten so close to snow here in town. you could see the clouds above, we had the humidity and temp drops, awesome.

the satpix are amazing.

we're loving it.
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 17:11

To place today's numbers into perspective, on 31 May 1977 (probably the most extreme May cold outbreak of the last 100 years), Cabramurra had a maximum of -4.5. None of the alpine summit sites reported (not unusual in those days outside the ski season), but the Cabramurra and Thredbo Village (-1.0) numbers suggest that had they reported, Mount Hotham and/or Thredbo Top Station would have been below the -6.0 observed in the May 2000 event, and may even have threatened the Australian all-months record of -6.9.
Posted by: Quagmelson

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 19:03

Very cold hard drops shower passing over
Posted by: Homer

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 19:39

Originally Posted By: Quagmelson
Very cold hard drops shower passing over


Same here before, but the shower was lighter.
Posted by: Quagmelson

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 19:43

10 mins worth, and 0.5mm. But exciting none the less. Being on tank water ive had to govern my own water restrictions. Starting tomorrow, daughters barbie playing time in shower has been slashed from 5 to 3 mins.
Posted by: Homer

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 19:46

Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
1.4 degrees at Cooma Airport and dropping. No precip yet, but at current wind speeds I suspect light/moderate snow wouldn't register in the AWS gauge.


I was actually wondering about that.
Some of the videos I saw on social media today from Perisher showed it absolutely bucketing down with snow. Real blizzard conditions. Problem was the snow was blowing sideways.
I kept tabs on the precip totals from the Perisher AWS and they just didn't seem to be accumulating in comparison to the intensity of the falls.
I was wondering if it's possible that in storms like this, that true readings aren't recorded due to the fact that as you suggested re Cooma, that the real amount of precipitation just does not accumulate in the gauge, therefore not giving a true reading of totals?
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 20:15

Tuggeranong 587m in the ACT is at 3.0c now which is real close to sleet. Id imagine some of the hills in Canberra which go to 800m could get some snow.
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 20:23

Undercatch of snow in wind-exposed places is a well-known problem (and one for which there's no clear solution). I did a study a while back (comparing the exposed Falls Creek AWS with the more sheltered Rocky Valley site) which estimated the undercatch of snow at the AWS at somewhere between 50% and 70%.
Posted by: Homer

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 20:25

Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
Undercatch of snow in wind-exposed places is a well-known problem (and one for which there's no clear solution). I did a study a while back (comparing the exposed Falls Creek AWS with the more sheltered Rocky Valley site) which estimated the undercatch of snow at the AWS at somewhere between 50% and 70%.


Wow. That's massive, but not surprising. I suspected as much.
Thanks for the follow up Blair.
Posted by: Nick Sykes

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 20:26

Very cold in Canberra tonight and surprisingly wet, still quite a few showers around, no snow yet. No models had precipitation at this time, usually dries out in a SW flow here. Temps are dropping in in the south, Tidbinbilla at 834m 0.3C with showers about, likely snow.
Posted by: warrie

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 21:28

Alas the Thredbo AWS was out of action for 6 days beginning May 30th 1977 for min and 6 days for max from 28th. Right at the critical time.LOL Fast forward to recent winters and the precipitation reading is dodgy to say the least at recording snowfall.....W
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 22:05

In those days it wasn't an AWS (and indeed there was a period when observations were done at the top in winter and the village in summer).

All the ski resorts have very patchy observations outside ski season before AWS installation (which is why most of the Australian record low temperatures for warm-season months have been set post-1990). Cabramurra, run by Snowy Hydro before it was automated, is the only alpine site with decent year-round observations from the manual era.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 22:10

Perisher ski resort will now open this Friday. Not surprising when there's been so much snow, maybe the best start to the season in years.
Posted by: alby_14

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 22:19

Some precip made it as far north as Warren this arvo as a thin band of light rain and showers, and colder winds, moved through with the front. Am working out in the Macquarie Marshes for a few days, enough h2o to cause some puddles in town. Not enough to do any good. Still, beats the 45c days and blowing dust of summer... I guess...
Posted by: Jimi

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 22:30

Blair can you tell us what happened to the Charlotte Pass station? The site of our coldest temp doesn't exist any more.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 22:38

Feels like 1c here atm and it sure does! Freaking cold.
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 22:39

I don't think anyone could be found to do the observations, and with an AWS already at Perisher it wasn't a high priority for replacement.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 29/05/2019 23:54

The wind is ripping through here right now, the feels like temp is currently -2c! Thats wind chill of 12c! Impressive.
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 30/05/2019 07:51

Some cold temps this morning and high humidities, Orange Ap at -0.2C and 93%, but alas, I imagine things will start dry out now.

Dont get me started on the feels like temp. It seems to be something that has gained ground in mainstream media as a way of sensationalising the weather. Wish it werent so widely reported.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 30/05/2019 08:03

So you dont believe in wind chill - the science is settled 🙄🤔🙄🤦🏻‍♂️

One of the rare occasions Wollongong is colder than Albion Park this morning, bottoming out at 7.8, nearly 6c below average.
Posted by: Adaminaby Angler

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 30/05/2019 09:27

Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Some cold temps this morning and high humidities, Orange Ap at -0.2C and 93%, but alas, I imagine things will start dry out now.

Dont get me started on the feels like temp. It seems to be something that has gained ground in mainstream media as a way of sensationalising the weather. Wish it werent so widely reported.

Righto, I don't believe in petty "feels-like" readings either, but that's not what the mainstream media tends to sensationalise. wink
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 30/05/2019 09:44

At 8.7 earlier this morning, it was the coldest minimum at Sydney OH so far this year and the coldest since September 27. Most of Sydney bottomed out around 5 - 7, apart from a couple of cold hollows out of the wind where is dropped to 2 - 3.

It looks like Sydney will finish May with temperature averages of 12.8 - 22.6, respectively +0.8 and +2.3 with respect to 1961-1990 averages and +0.3 to +2.6 with respect to recent averages (1981-2010). It looks like there'll be no rain before 9:00 tomorrow, which means that Sydney will finish the month with 14.6 mm of rain, less than 15% of the 1981-2010 average.

The broader pattern for Sydney and nearby areas looks similar, minima about average, maxima about 2 above, and very dry.

Another thing - no cold maxima. The coolest maximum for most places near sea level, at about 18-19 today, will only be slightly below average.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 30/05/2019 18:47

Swag of cold min records on offer tonight - starting with Wollongong where its already only 9.6c, 4 below average, and its just past 630pm! Insane.
Posted by: crikey

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 30/05/2019 20:31

some very steep drops in temps' in some places currently
Port Macquarie..dropped 10deg c in 3 hrs..8pm 3.2 deg c
Lismore has dropped 8deg in 3 hts. Currently 3deg c
horsley park dropped 5deg in 3 hrs

Wind has decreased in some of those places.

Armidale 0.7deg c at 7pm
http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/observations/nswall.shtml?ref=hdr
..
ACC g presenting with an ECL for next mon 3rd june and ' tues'
One to watch
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?unit=p27&type=mslp-precip&area=Au&model=CG .
Posted by: Fujita

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 31/05/2019 10:07

In those days it wasn't an AWS (and indeed there was a period when observations were done at the top in winter and the village in summer).

All the ski resorts have very patchy observations outside ski season before AWS installation (which is why most of the Australian record low temperatures for warm-season months have been set post-1990). Cabramurra, run by Snowy Hydro before it was automated, is the only alpine site with decent year-round observations from the manual era.


Edited by Blair Trewin (29-05-2019 22:06)


Blair FYI:
Regarding NSW alpine sites from manual days, there are 2 sites with decent year round obs, Kosciuszko Chalet and Kiandra. However these are on original paper documents (F68s) stored in the NSW Archives. I found them when doing some consultative work for Bureau in 2011. Kosc Chalet dates fro 1911 until it burnt down in early 50s. Kiandra since 1922. All daily readings of temps, rain and some visual obs. In process of transcribing them onto my laptop. Would be a valuable addition to Bureau's database. Mike.
Posted by: Rob G

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 31/05/2019 11:27

Originally Posted By: Kino
Swag of cold min records on offer tonight - starting with Wollongong where its already only 9.6c, 4 below average, and its just past 630pm! Insane.

Seems the records you expected didn't evenutate - thanks in part to cloud in the wake of the cold fronts still covering a decent portion of the state. The only noteworthy minimum was Glen Innes Airport with a low of -9.8C, equalling the record set on 31 May 2006.

Originally Posted By: Steve777
The broader pattern for Sydney and nearby areas looks similar, minima about average, maxima about 2 above, and very dry.

May 2019 in Sydney is very likely to be the 4 warmest on record in terms of average temperature. Only other years as warm: 1958, 2017 and 2007. Even the average minimum was warm (in 2nd decile), despite very dry conditions and dominant HP ridges that should promote cold nights. There are similarities with 1958, the warmest Sydney May on record, which was also very dry with mild nights and warm days.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 31/05/2019 12:34

I think that the Bankstown site is a good one to represent 'Sydney'. It has 50 years of records at the same site, is online and has a near complete record. Sydney Airport is good, but seems to be increasingly UHI-affected.

For May 2019, temperatures there are tracking 8.7 to 22.5.
Assuming that today's maximum is close to 20, that's how it will finish. These values are respectively -0.7 to +1.9 with regard to 1968-2018 means.

Note: there's a missing maximum for the 22nd, which would have been about 25, increasing the average max by 0.1

Regarding Sydney OH, I think that long term cool month averages for maxima are now practically meaningless. We need to at least disregard anything before the 1917 site move. Last year I downloaded its stats into a spreadsheet and calculated 30 and 50 year averages to compare to other sites. For May, the 1968-2018 average min-max are 11.9 to 20.6. May 2019 looks like finishing +0.9 and +2.0 with regard to these.

Note: OH Maxima have been above this average every May since 2012.
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 31/05/2019 13:24

Originally Posted By: Rob G
Originally Posted By: Kino
Swag of cold min records on offer tonight - starting with Wollongong where its already only 9.6c, 4 below average, and its just past 630pm! Insane.

Seems the records you expected didn't evenutate - thanks in part to cloud in the wake of the cold fronts still covering a decent portion of the state. The only noteworthy minimum was Glen Innes Airport with a low of -9.8C, equalling the record set on 31 May 2006.

Originally Posted By: Steve777
The broader pattern for Sydney and nearby areas looks similar, minima about average, maxima about 2 above, and very dry.

May 2019 in Sydney is very likely to be the 4 warmest on record in terms of average temperature. Only other years as warm: 1958, 2017 and 2007. Even the average minimum was warm (in 2nd decile), despite very dry conditions and dominant HP ridges that should promote cold nights. There are similarities with 1958, the warmest Sydney May on record, which was also very dry with mild nights and warm days.


Ummm wrong. Moss Vale, Cowra, Young, Port Macquarie, Kempsey all got records, some smashed them, including Young which stood since 1977...
Posted by: isaY

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 31/05/2019 13:37

Snow forecast for Orange on Monday from about 9 am throughout the day into night. Fingers crossed it happens
Posted by: Jac0b

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 31/05/2019 15:50

Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Rob G
Originally Posted By: Kino
Swag of cold min records on offer tonight - starting with Wollongong where its already only 9.6c, 4 below average, and its just past 630pm! Insane.

Seems the records you expected didn't evenutate - thanks in part to cloud in the wake of the cold fronts still covering a decent portion of the state. The only noteworthy minimum was Glen Innes Airport with a low of -9.8C, equalling the record set on 31 May 2006.

Originally Posted By: Steve777
The broader pattern for Sydney and nearby areas looks similar, minima about average, maxima about 2 above, and very dry.

May 2019 in Sydney is very likely to be the 4 warmest on record in terms of average temperature. Only other years as warm: 1958, 2017 and 2007. Even the average minimum was warm (in 2nd decile), despite very dry conditions and dominant HP ridges that should promote cold nights. There are similarities with 1958, the warmest Sydney May on record, which was also very dry with mild nights and warm days.


Ummm wrong. Moss Vale, Cowra, Young, Port Macquarie, Kempsey all got records, some smashed them, including Young which stood since 1977...


To add to that Dalby and Applethorpe in QLD also beat their records. Applethorpe has almost 50 years of data and beat it's May record by 2.1C which is a wide margin.
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 31/05/2019 18:02

Also a Queensland state record at Stanthorpe.
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 08:09

Latest EC has some solid moisture moving in Tuesday morning along the coast. Its marginal but could be some sleet/snow along areas like Bowral/Robertson
Posted by: Snowmaker

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 08:34

Originally Posted By: Sidney
Latest EC has some solid moisture moving in Tuesday morning along the coast. Its marginal but could be some sleet/snow along areas like Bowral/Robertson


Yr.no has snow forecast for bowral on Monday night. Like you said it will be marginal but it looks oddly similar to the July 2015 front (also very marginal) that delivered 5-10cm around here
Posted by: Sidney

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 08:52

Originally Posted By: Snowmaker
Originally Posted By: Sidney
Latest EC has some solid moisture moving in Tuesday morning along the coast. Its marginal but could be some sleet/snow along areas like Bowral/Robertson


Yr.no has snow forecast for bowral on Monday night. Like you said it will be marginal but it looks oddly similar to the July 2015 front (also very marginal) that delivered 5-10cm around here


Yeah, windy.tv has 6cm for bowral. If it eventuates i might come for a chase early tuesday morning to mount Gibraltar. Since its only about a 50 min drive.
Posted by: Snowmaker

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 09:55

Originally Posted By: Sidney
Originally Posted By: Snowmaker
Originally Posted By: Sidney
Latest EC has some solid moisture moving in Tuesday morning along the coast. Its marginal but could be some sleet/snow along areas like Bowral/Robertson


Yr.no has snow forecast for bowral on Monday night. Like you said it will be marginal but it looks oddly similar to the July 2015 front (also very marginal) that delivered 5-10cm around here


Yeah, windy.tv has 6cm for bowral. If it eventuates i might come for a chase early tuesday morning to mount Gibraltar. Since its only about a 50 min drive.


Yeah I think the Gib is the best bet considering it's pretty marginal! Went for a quick drive up there the morning after the July 2015 event and there were cars sliding off the road everywhere so it can get pretty hairy with snow on the road. Had to be 10-15cm. Not that I'm expecting anything like that this time around. (hope to be surprised)
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 10:01

Wowzers snow in Bowral! What time is it expected to start, might be a snowy drive home from work grin
Posted by: Snowmaker

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 10:13

[img:left]bowral[/img]

Probably late Monday, and Tuesday morning are the two best chances
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 10:30

Thanks Snowmaker, I'll miss it then since I won't be up this way on Tuesday morning.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 10:47

It will be interesting to see if it comes off.

I am assuming that the blue-shaded areas signify snow. Am I right? What are the numbers (e.g. 4.7 at Taralga, 0.1 at Picton)?

Mild and cloudy here after sunny periods earlier this morning. The Satellite shows Sydney's West under sunshine. As of 9:00, it hasn't rained in Sydney for 25 days.

P.S. We haven't heard from Eddy for a while. Hope all is OK.
Posted by: Snowmaker

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 10:51

Originally Posted By: Steve777
It will be interesting to see if it comes off.

I am assuming that the blue-shaded areas signify snow. Am I right? What are the numbers (e.g. 4.7 at Taralga, 0.1 at Picton)?

Mild and cloudy here after sunny periods earlier this morning. The Satellite shows Sydney's West under sunshine. As of 9:00, it hasn't rained in Sydney for 25 days.

P.S. We haven't heard from Eddy for a while. Hope all is OK.


Yeah the blue shading and the numbers indicate where and how much snow is expected to fall. Due to the resolution of the maps it can show snow will fall where it shouldn't, so just use it as a general indicator using knowledge of elevations etc
Posted by: Snowmaker

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 12:36

GFS progging 85 knots winds (160ph) at 850mb (1400m) for tuesday morning right over me and the rest of the Illawarra coast!! They are also showing 70 knot winds (130kph) at 925mb (700m) and 110kph gusts at sea level. They had similar numbers on the last run and it isn't too far away either. Could be some serious areas of destruction if this comes off. This pocket of abnormally warm water off the southern NSW coastline is what I believe is causing this low to bomb like a cyclone. If these winds come off it would be equal to a high end Cat 2 cyclone

[img:left]table-1[/img]
Posted by: Kino

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 12:57

Yikes....perhaps deserves its own thread now?
Posted by: Peter Konnecke

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 13:53

Ventusky shows it in Sydney about 8am @ gusting to 120 kph
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 14:04

Looks like an interesting one for the SE corner. Perhaps some snow around Nimitabel and the like.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 16:21

Hasnt stopped raining here all afternoon.🤙
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 16:24

Still pretty clear down this way.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 16:26

Its heavy as now! Wow.
Posted by: Homer

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 16:39

Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Still pretty clear down this way.


Same here. A beautiful mostly sunny, albeit cool afternoon.
Yet just 70 - 80 km's to the north, it's pissing down.
Who'd have thunk it!!
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 17:00

I dont have a rain gauge(still saving) . But the creek behind my house gives me a good bearing. It has a one foot wave. April 2015 storm was about 3 ft. So a significant drop when ever a stand still wave. Creek is currently 5m wide.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 17:10

There have been a few good falls today in the Newcastle and Lake Macquarie areas, including 27 mm at Blacksmiths and a number of 20+ mm in Newcastle suburbs.

EDIT:
The forecast just issued shows showers and average temperatures early next week, followed by what looks like the start of a long warm spell.

Forecast rain June 2-5 (mm)

Newcastle: 25 - 57
Sydney: 19 - 53
Wollongong: 19 - 49

Totals quickly reduce as you go inland.
Looks a bit touch and go. It depends upon the exact position of the low. A small change could make a big difference.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 17:16

Pretty impressive considering the weather *seems* relatively settled. I did see some pretty chunky clouds out to sea though which would be the same stuff up the CC.

Yeah Homer, was cool but pleasant this arvo here too. That southerly had a bit of bite to it.
Posted by: Funkyseefunkydo

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 17:38

I have a vid of my creek but no idea how to put on here. And Ive tried but no luck.
Posted by: crikey

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 18:16

TRY to upload it to youtube and then post the link here.
First ECL for the winter arriving. The last time l got caught in one was KIAMA. All the tents in the caravan park were ripped to shreds.
Fabulous pictures on TV of many people enjoying the snow on the alps. I can feel the pull for a snow chase.. SKI
Hope for some cheap lift tickets perhaps
Posted by: Stormy3

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 21:20

it is raining heavy on the coast here in the Hunter but not gong very far inland yet.not getting to me here south of Cessnock anyway.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 22:56

Thank you for your answer Snowmaker (previous page).

----

The shower cells are multiplying on the Central Coast and lower Hunter, with falls around Newcastle totalling 30-40 mm.

There's been no rain in Sydney. It was clear and starry when I took out the rubbish just now. There are cells marching Northwards off the coast, but none look like coming ashore South of Broken Bay at this stage.
Posted by: kizz

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 23:00

Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
I dont have a rain gauge(still saving) .

What kind of rain gauge are you saving for? You can get a decent manual gauge at Bunnings for less than $20.
Posted by: Stormy3

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 01/06/2019 23:06

The best rain gauge is the one on your profile pick with the kookaburra
sitting on it kizz.they are about $20
Posted by: Cheers

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 02/06/2019 12:29

Ok guys, is anyone thinking of doing a snow chase on Monday to Tuesday up around the OP ?
Im might give it a go if its still looking ok tonight .
Cheers
Posted by: Stormy3

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 02/06/2019 12:36

There Looks like a few small orange red cells moving in from the SW just south of Sydney.
Posted by: vorts

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 02/06/2019 13:09

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/640x480q90/923/bXzIgs.png[img]
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/640x480q90/924/lfo7rX.png[/img

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/640x480q90/923/Qkbfcv.png

EC18Z Check those northern tablelands 500mb/700mb forecast temps!.
Posted by: Steve777

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 02/06/2019 13:31

There is an active cell out to sea off Sydney. There are glimpses of structure visible through lower cloud and you can hear lightning crackling in the car radio. While the rain seems to be moving towards the NNE, the active part of the cell is nearly stationary about 25 km off Sydney's Eastern beaches.

Other than that. it's been fine and partly cloudy here, a bit sunnier this morning.
Posted by: Marts

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 02/06/2019 14:00

Interesting set up atm. It's very dark just off the coast but there seems to be something moving in from the north going by the radar.
It's pretty clean where the low is sitting.

Just maybe we'll get some precip soon.
Posted by: Marts

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 02/06/2019 14:41

I'm hearing a few rumbles just off the coast now.
Nice development on radar atm as well.
Posted by: Quagmelson

Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 - 02/06/2019 14:41

I was just out practicing my lob wedge in the backyard when i thought a bird pooped on me. Alas it was a couple of rain drops hitting my cheek and I would not be recieving some overdue good luck