Vic - discussion on possible events to come

Posted by: Petros

Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/10/2011 22:05

Havent looked "out there" for several days, been too busy. The BOM have advised of a warm outbreak mid next week. Is there a change of a stormy change at the end of the week????
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/10/2011 18:30

... and maybe the break of the sunny period at the end of this week might leave Vic troughy right through to Tuesday week???
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/10/2011 20:06

Just looked at the latest AccG, it seems to think that the troughy period we are about to enter later tomorrow might hang around for ages (well 7 days) and finish it all off with a "bang" courtesy of a cut off low spawned from a cold aired LWT that passes by close enough to leave a "knot" behind amongst the lingering humidity.

There IS weather for Vic to keep us keen for a week! smile Bring it on.

[edit] - by the way heres AccG's progs for rain for 24 hrs near this time next week (and the day later even more from Bairnsdale E'wards).....
Posted by: duckweather

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/10/2011 20:20

I agree with you Petros.
It will be an interesting next 7 days, starting from tomorrow night?
Watching that cloud coming through from the west looks quite volatile - goody smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/10/2011 21:18

Its hard to discern the end of this present weather event - the moisture available to Vic looks to persist for another week if I'm reading things right. Like me, the models are all over the shop. With the brushing of the LWT passing below us later next week we could either end up with:

1. A new high pressure system finally battling its way over us by end of next week clearing all this out
2. A cut-off low born from the next LWT passing circa Thurs
3. An Easterly dip situation... a general large scale inland low system over inland E Aus.

Dont ask me! - I'll just go by "where theres smoke theres fire" (the betting side of me puts 2 bob on the Easterly dip wink.

Its gotten moist outside here in Vic right now and I cant see it going away real fast.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/10/2011 19:30

EC is progging me 27mm over late next weekend - not supported by AccG/R, CMC or GFS - has anyone else got progs like this in Vic??
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/10/2011 19:31

Originally Posted By: Petros
EC is progging me 27mm over late next weekend (29-30/10/11)- not supported by AccG/R, CMC or GFS - has anyone else got progs like this in Vic??
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/10/2011 20:00

The BOM on ABC radio yesterday said change arriving to west Vic on friday and passing state on saturday.The BOM wind forecast map indicates a developing embryonioc ECL on the sunday night on the far east coast of Vic. In the past this set up of ECL development has seen Vic with an arching jetstream over VIC and some rain. I would agree with EC and your rainfall forecast petros.
http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/AU/2xJetStream.html
The arch on the jetstream is not in view yet.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/10/2011 18:56

AccG's latest run shows the chance of Vic being in a troughline Wed/Thurs next week. More storms to follow up what we get on Fri-Sun this weekend in Vic?

The main thing to me is the continuance of moist air supply in Aust mid inland SE that should take much to draw back down onto us again circa mid next week.
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/10/2011 23:13

Petros.Any chance you could post the AccG diagram for your above post. Would be good to follow and look back after the event. Good to look back and see their performance.
I noticed the ACCESS G forecast you posted above is only one day out.( early).Will be interesting to see fridays rain totals and compare.
EDIT. No ECL on sunday with the Wind forecast update but a small low on the S/west coast of vic embeded in trough on Saturday .
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/10/2011 18:02

Heres GFS as it has morphed a couple of iteration later Crikey....

The trough between the 2 high centres looks less likely, it looking like the centres of this double-yolker might merge. Fast looming into the postable range for a new thread (be it warm sunny days OR troughy stormy days wink ).

[edit] - sorry Crikey, just realised that what you meant was post the "early-thus-inaccurate" chart that we are commenting on at that time. Noted.
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/10/2011 21:01

THe GFS 148hr forecast for next thursday the 3rd November( 6 days out) you posted above petros has some interesting features to 'toy with'.
Looks like we are assured of a nice big high pressure cell approximating from next monday to the following weekend of the saturday the 5th november( thats 6 days of high pressure or there abouts) then next trough approachesVIC (another long trough extending across from southern OZ right up the equatorial region once again.)
The next trough has similar features to this one in that a low is forming off the S/west coast of WA and moves across OZ .
And so you would expect a similar scenario to now in that a broad trough brings thunderstorms and rain to the interior once again and we in Vic are likely to get a repeat of this weekend in the future around about the Saturday 5th November.
For Queensland the northwest/s/east trough line pattern continues and so more of the same for Queensland.
Synoptically speaking it looks more of the same .The pattern of long broad troughs in between quite large highs.
Looks like a bit of some hotter temps dipping down into the NT around next Thursday as well.Anyway l like the idea of some fairly regular rain/showers for VIC atm.My garden is dry and we are under the mean here atm
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/10/2011 20:05

Looks like any significant wetness from the next event will be Sunday night-Tues across Vic??
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/10/2011 07:49

I am looking forward to the next system with the hope that some significant rain may come from it. So even though I may not comment I am reading this thread with great interest.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/10/2011 18:45

GFS and AccG show sultry air to again be drawn into Vic from the N & NW early/mid next week due to a lazy departure of the high system building now (read blocking low E of NZ if I'm right).

This moisture looks to be upset by a passing LWT licking us early next week allowing the chance of storms, coldness or even a cut-off low.

If someone wants to start a thread for this, I'll post a chart or two as they prognose 5-6 days out.

As usual, the last system this past weekend was another example of "where theres smoke, there'll be fire" for models sniffing things "out there".
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/10/2011 19:14

Mods.... - whats wrong with a one hour edit time (or more)?

GFS shows the arrival of the above-mentioned moisture midday next Monday and a cold air mass gathering in the bight, looking set to arrive into Vic Tues/Wed to stir things up somewhat.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/11/2011 19:02

"Out there" for next Wed acc to GFS.....

Could one brave Victorian please start a thread to discuss this potential event, next Sunday is now in the "allowable zone" for the purists.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/11/2011 17:56

Going back 2 post to next Monday (well inside the allowable thread creation range for most), it now looks like Monday will provide a good opening burst to the weather to follow during the week. It should be an interesting week and involve storms, just wish others would comment or start a dedicated thread for this.
Hers GFS's take on next Monday - other models do disagree....
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/11/2011 23:18

Hi Petros. Just had a brief look at the BOM wind forecast map for this period .There is one thing l can say. The wind map indicates a period of what l could say somewhat erratic wind flow patterns. in other words not very neat.
Over Vic the wind flow seems to vary from day to day . Sometimes a .low pressure flow and then anti-clockwise flow.It would seem the highs and trough do a bit of volleying for position in and around VIC ? which would make outcomes a little difficult l would have thought. If that were to pan out it could ? limit the precipitation potential .
The GFS model( wednesday 9th NOV)) above has some heavy rainfall at barom pressure of 1008 and 1012. I didn't feel comfortable with that.Also the s/west flow which rarely gives us in the north some heavy falls l am sure? It looks as though it is relying on a moisture laden North west infeed passing over Vic. Look forward to how it pans out.
One thing l do like is the strong equatorial in-feed into the the mid-latitude belt of the southern hemisphere at the moment as seen on met office world satellite imagery.
If anythings going to make me optimistic for some more good rainfalls l would say the southern hemisphere sat pic looks very promising this week at least
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/11/2011 21:01

Yep Crikey, the the strong equatorial in-feed remains the key to the ammount of rain Vic may get mid/late next week. Still looks "on" from my take on things.

Hope I'm not upsetting the purists too much but heres something to stir the blood...
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/11/2011 20:27

.... as the models wax and wane...
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/11/2011 17:48

Chance of storms with a change Sunday, but further out GFS is mooting this:
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/11/2011 20:32

More on next Thursday.... its nothing (AccG)



or something (GFS).....



Now hows THAT for a bit of model variation out in fairyland!!!
Posted by: Lindsay Knowles

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/11/2011 13:18

Starting to get interssted in Friday arvo through to Sunday. Maybe some arvo storms Friday and also Saturday with some high falls on the cards about the state.
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/11/2011 17:12

GFS looks very nice with some NW infeed, which nearly always results in storms and good rainfalls.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/11/2011 00:14

GFS has been swinging the last few days with high precip Albury area over the weekend.
I am going to Coldchisel outdoor concert in Wodonga Fri 18th. Do you think chisel could sing me up a storm and then Barnsey be drowned out by thunder?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/11/2011 19:42

EC has progged 23mm for N Gippsland next Wednesday, WZ hasnt posted updates for EC of AccG models yet so I cant comment on model consensus.

Theres already rain comming for Vic this weekend, plenty already had (yest/last night), and now the notion of more mid next week?? - La Nina - gotta love it smile

Commiserations to Globlal Warmist/Alarmists who said Vics dams would never fill again wink

[edit] WZ has just updated GFS run, it wants nothing to do with mid week rain (thank God for the VIc farming harvesters).
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/11/2011 10:16

Whats going to happen after the next high clears to Vic E at the end of next week? There is going to be plenty moisture available to Vic N again! If something can allow it to be drawn down we (here) will be swimming! 90+mm here this month so far.

So this prog from GFS for next Friday night looks a bit omninous!


Maybe time to start a thread eh (I always stuff up the dates!).
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/11/2011 13:39

I read elsewhere that maybe in a fortnights time roughly that we could be in for a very large scale rain event if things line up right. Of course it is a long time away and I am sure there will be some rain and storms in between.
I DO ENJOY the build up to these systems and find it absolutely fascinating reading others opinions of how the system may pan out, it is much more interesting then listening to the weather on the tv or the radio. It's like a child looking at their presents under the christmas tree, the anticipation and the waite is what makes the unwrapping so much better.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/11/2011 18:24

Heard that too TU, AV from AWF is mooting this as well and he is the guy that predicted the massive rain Vic got earlier this year.

On a closer timeframe, CMC is also playing with the possibility of wetness in S NSW albiet into next Sat - a day later than GFC's musings posted above. Well time to start a thread on this possibility IMO.

Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/11/2011 11:15

Will this cross the border or not Fri-Sat? Some models toying with the idea.
Posted by: liberator

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/11/2011 20:24

Petros, where do you find those prediciton maps - I've only found the 14 day ones and they never seem to match?
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/11/2011 12:19

I get my models from weatherzone and pay for the Pro Silver Acces which I think $5.00 per month.
You can still see some models with out joining If you go click on radar & maps then click on australian charts (above weatherzone 14 day outlook) then click on BOM it will give you the access model runs or click on GFS will give you GFS model runs, then you can click on each day for a bigger view. If you are signed up with Pro you get many extras like being able to get a close up of a particular state it will also also give you access to the CMC, TWC models etc and there are quiet a few other things that you can access too by joining up with the Pro that are especially handy for storm followers.
Hope this helps Liberator.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/11/2011 12:50

Yep I do exactly as TU said liberator.
Posted by: liberator

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/11/2011 20:12

Thanks guys
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/11/2011 20:27

Originally Posted By: liberator
Petros, where do you find those prediciton maps - I've only found the 14 day ones and they never seem to match?


Promted by a hint from Ruckle in the present thread for this weekend I went shopping out a little further.....

AccG (which WZ posts later and later it seems) is showing the potential for a followup event to this weekend later next week. IF CMC is correct AND this AccG prog were to come true, then we Gippslanders are at risk of becomming dissolved shocked


Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/11/2011 18:46

EC shows my area to get another 16mm mid next week. On top of what could possibly be serious rain for us in central Vic (we are wet here, and lake glenmaggie is full).

We really dont need this potential followup system, and this is AccG not EC! shocked



[edit] - and look at the tongue of cold air arriving from the SW - defintely adding fuel to the fire shocked
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/11/2011 19:25

EC has just doubled the expected rain for Maffra next Wed from 16 to 33mm.

Would someone PLEASE start a thread on this potential event?
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/11/2011 20:17

So after the cool spell as this week concludes and a pretty stable weekend compared to recent times, inland moisture looks to be building again in the new week. Some hints of another big system from the SW coming up to draw it all down for another thundery and or rainy episode as we get toward the end of the 1st week of December. If this pattern keeps up once the wet begins up north, eastern Australia will be swimming.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/11/2011 20:06

An comment on the possibility of a very warm/wet/humid northerly system Thu/Sat next week that looks to provide big storms for Vic (acc. to last run of AccG)?
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/11/2011 22:43

Have been watching the models, looking more interresting this evening. An article on WZ of warning winegrowers in SA that there is more rain to come late next week, but will that system head into NSW or will it flow into Vic? And of course there is talk of more rain when the monsoonal season starts. Lanina seem be firing, esp for NSW.
Anyway enough of my blaa blaa blaa.
Posted by: Katyer

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/12/2011 11:37

Thunderunder...keepp the blaa blaa going, I find yours and others input so informative. I have been reading, but not contributing to the ENSO discussion. Really interesting reading all the comments and others points of view on this current La Nina.
Originally Posted By: thunderunder
Have been watching the models, looking more interresting this evening. An article on WZ of warning winegrowers in SA that there is more rain to come late next week, but will that system head into NSW or will it flow into Vic? And of course there is talk of more rain when the monsoonal season starts. Lanina seem be firing, esp for NSW.
Anyway enough of my blaa blaa blaa.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/12/2011 16:18

Huh that's funny, BOM 10 day charts showing it developing a lot in SA on friday, before dissapitating in Victoria and then redeveloping a little.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/12/2011 23:10

Keep looking out for the end of next week I reckon.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/12/2011 17:36

OK now that the weekends system (8-11/12/11) is a monty. I note that a certain respected Vic amateur met-buff with the initials KL is mooting that this system could merely be the set up to allow the following system early next week to create a serious rainfall situation in Victoria.

To the models all... to the models!! Those of use below lakes Glenmaggie, Hume, Eildon etc. should watch the model runs over the next couple of days VERY CLOSELY.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/12/2011 20:45

.... and I'm sure this is the system referred too....
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/12/2011 23:12

Should I be getting the boat fueled up, the floaties blown up and the pantry filled up! grin
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/12/2011 10:04

Hmmm - well I'm very interested in later next week anyhow.

Thats a serious ball of moisture to potentially get cradled between 2 weak highs as it arrives into SE Aust.....
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/12/2011 10:57

Looks like a wet system is set to arrive into Vic at the end of the week and into the weekend.

Hihg time for an intrepid weather watcher to start a thread on this methinks....

Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/12/2011 18:08

... and might end up with this...(remember its day 8 of GFS 8 day model)....


Someone please start a thread for the end of next week!!
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/12/2011 20:16

You can start it lol, althought that does look really nasty. I actually hope that's not what happens because that could be some serious flooding.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/12/2011 21:04

There is a LOT of interest on this comming weekend on other forums. I'm very concious of avoiding the WZ Vic forum thread intiation from being a "Petros" dominated.
Posted by: SCI18

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/12/2011 22:13

Originally Posted By: Petros
There is a LOT of interest on this comming weekend on other forums. I'm very concious of avoiding the WZ Vic forum thread intiation from being a "Petros" dominated.


Latest models are loving this event. Especially US 8day on WZ with 80mm in central and northern Vic. Looking forward to it.
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/12/2011 19:22

80mm....there wont be any victoria left! haha I'm just having a gander at the new forum pages i'll have to look at. QLDer here but am coming down for Uni and I can't wait.

When does "most" of the weather occur? (Mainly storms)

anyway...hope you get swept away in 80mm of rain (and if you want to send it north you are more than welcome poke ) and enjoy your warm hopefully sunny christmas....I think ours will be rained out
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/12/2011 19:28

Funny how much the models changed woodman poke Anyway most of our storms occur like the rest of Australia in Spring and Summer, spring probably has the most severe but Summer has the most imo.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/12/2011 11:20

Boxing day could be interesting.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/12/2011 20:02

Looking at the current AccG and GFS runs, between them, I can construe an ECL event to crawl down the Aus SE coast as a possible outcome to throw into the ring with the rest mid next week (27-29/12/11). If this was to happen it would potentially only affect Vic S of the ranges from Packy E so its a bit of a self centred post I guess. It would require the potential coral coast cyclone "Fina" NOT to form IMO though!

But it could/would interest Melbournites re the potential Thompson Dam input? - (how did I go? wink ).
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/12/2011 18:31

Well, after the Christmas mayhem in the new storm mecca - Melbourne, it looks like we'll have to put up with cool boring holiday wrecking S to SE regime along Vics S coast through to Fri 30th before the next high establishes itself over SE Vic.

AccG and GFS show the high sticking around till the following Monday night before the next "weather" will arrive. At this stage, my guess is that it'll be a far less sexy SW'ly change. Hopefully with some storms with it.

We got 26mm rain over past 2 days so wont complain! - our second summer shaping up to dodge those long hot periods.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/12/2011 08:24

Only thing atm, well btw now and next Tuesday is heat building. Been interesting with the models that they keep extending the heat / delaying the change.

Remains to be seen if there is any instability with the trough sticking into VIC. Hard to imagine there wouldnt be at least some rumbling around the ranges at least.
Posted by: ColdsnapIII

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/12/2011 12:58

Precipitable water values are forecast to be quite high with the heat for the New Year period. GFS has DPs staying in double figures for a lot of the time. I know GFS often overdoes the humidity but it's still going to be a lot higher than what we normally see in heatwaves here in summer. La Nina seems to be peaking at the moment and there is a heap of moisture available from the NW tropics. It's not the typical dusty desert summer that we often see in VIC.

With the higher humidity, models are predicting much lower temps than you would expect to see around midsummer given the 850T forecast. 24C 850T at times at the peak of the heatwave and yet not one day forecast above 36C in Melbourne. This is clearly due to the higher moisture levels that are expected, both directly due to higher atmospheric water allowing for less heating than dry air and indirectly as a result of convective buildups and likely middle level cloud that should develop with a weak trough over us for most of the period. Isolated showers should develop over the ranges but mainly in the NE of the state and coastal.

The north of the state will be very hot with temps exceeding 40C as they receive the hottest and driest air. Very hot but nothing particularly out of the ordinary for the far north and NW in January.
Posted by: Jayson Black

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/12/2011 16:35

Its a bit early to tell, but I was looking at what WZ thinks the synoptic situation will be like in a week and it looks like things may get very troughy around the 4th or 5th. I am pretty much on the Murray so unfortunately I will be copping those 40c days you mentioned frown so I am really hoping there will be some t-storms near by that I can chase and cool off underneath of. I guess we just have to wait and see how things pan out etc
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/12/2011 13:05

Looks like we'll have to wait till well into the weekend after this before the next chance of a rain event in Vic...
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/12/2011 16:28

Hmm that reminds me a bit of last year mid Janruary where we had a really unstable period where it was rainy but not too heavy.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/12/2011 10:04

OK - I'll call "game on" for later next weekend into early next week for the next thundery event involving humid conditions.

I encourage someone to start a thread for 7-9/1/12 as both GFS and AccG are mooting something like this.....

Posted by: teckert

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/12/2011 10:14

Petros - can we keep the new threads at least less than 6 days out thanks. You made this thread for the purpose of discussing upcoming events so leave discussion here till its within the 'likely to happen' period... (ie. Monday)
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/12/2011 18:54

Originally Posted By: teckert
Petros - can we keep the new threads at least less than 6 days out thanks. You made this thread for the purpose of discussing upcoming events so leave discussion here till its within the 'likely to happen' period... (ie. Monday)


AT LAST! - Thanks Teckert smile

Now we have a quantified timeline acceptable to the Forum owners. So 6 days it is.
Posted by: teckert

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/12/2011 19:07

lol.... cmon mate.... you have been here for 8 years.... its always been about 5-6 days. And I have communicated that to you enough when you wanted this thread started....
Why the sudden issue with it over the last few months? You know just as well as anyone that the models are useless more than about 3 or so days out for an accurate forecast.
Anyways, now that you have this re-jigged into your memory hopefully you dont have to worry about it any longer.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/12/2011 19:22

Thanks Teckert - equally you "gurus" just dont seem to grasp the concept that many (most?) of the forum followers dont give a toss about what the weather WILL be when its locked in 3 days out wink

What we like is what CAN happen (and comes off more often than you "3 dayers" would like to admit) - THATS what tickles our fancy!

We dont have a reputation to loose if we are wrong, we just want to have a grasp of the possibilities "out there", and follow that day by day. For me, I handle the disapointment of what could've-but didnt come off with a look out at the next system to come smile

Another forum that intially promised this
aspect was flooded with new members only 18 monhs ago. You are at risk of stiffling the potential of this forum if you insist on posts so timely and technically correct. Just my opinion, and good bye to all if I get banned for saying this. BTW - Happy New Year smile
Posted by: teckert

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/12/2011 19:24

???? What are you on about?
You have this thread to talk about upcoming weather longer than 5-6 days out??? No-one is stopping you talking about long term forecasts. Just not on date or event specific threads longer than the 5-6 days, which has been the policy all along.

and yer hope you have a good New Years.... wink
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/01/2012 10:41

Still looking like theres some dampness "out there" Monday week - now more focused on the states E...

Posted by: duckweather

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/01/2012 15:05

Hi guys smile
For what it's worth from this weather-tech-knowledge deprived storm lover, I get some warped sense of anticipation from challenging myself watching charts etc. from 5, 6, 7 or more days out from a potential event.
Got excited with myself one event passed (month ago) and blurted my 'prediction' of the timing of an event and I was horribly wrong. But I'm even though I am still learning, I'm still challenging myself (albeit quietly to myself) what I feel maybe excitedly coming along for Vic..
The 3rd (not so big)(pssst my b'day - so it better be good) and the 7th'ish are my next predictions for some interesting tickle-me-pink weather systems grin crazy
Happy new year all wink
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/01/2012 15:22

Well imo it's not worth trying to predict too much longer then 5-6 days out, models constantly turn and it's extremely hard to predict longer then a few days out accurately, the cool change on Tuesday should bring me some much needed relief from this heat tho.

As for next weekend from the models so far looks like it'll go south before intesifying over the Eastern parts of the state, and looks like a whole week of nice 22-26 temperatures rather then this heat.
Happy new year btw
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/01/2012 10:24

Models predict, turn, and often turn back to original prediction again (aka GFS for example). My experience has shown that you ignore GFS day 7-8 at your peril.

Last night the models had Sunday with a cut-off low passing over Tassie, thus rain affecting much of coastal Vic - circa 10mm in parts.

My interest is with the potential for storms kicking off along the NE edge of it.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/01/2012 10:55

Oh yeah for sure you need to stay on the lookout but before 3 or so days they can change a lot, so it's just hard a week out.
Posted by: Katyer

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/01/2012 11:46

Happy New Year to all of you. First chance I have had to read the latest in the forums.

I always enjoy reading all of the comments and predictions, whether they eventuate or not.
I have nowhere near the knowledge some of you but I am slowly gaining an insight. Most of that
is thanks to Petros, Thunderunder and Ant, who are always ready to answer a question or give me some tips on looking at models etc. Most of all its fun learning.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/01/2012 22:41

GFS is certainly downplaying the next significant event.... here it is.




At this stage the early models musings (AccG/GFS) look to be wrong. I can live with that. And yet they may be right, I can live with that too! wink
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/01/2012 13:36

Now GFS is bringing the system for Vic late next weekend/early next week a bit closer, at this stage I'll call it a "near miss" - but plenty of water to flow under the bridge yet!

Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/01/2012 11:24

The similar scenario continues for next weekend/early week after..
the next chance of storms and some rain.

Something to watch also, is the lick of cold air (blue line) that has the potential to splash up near Vic circa next Tuesday. That would re-invigorate the cut-off low shown below.......

Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/01/2012 16:41

apocalypse approaching when the max is 32 degrees lower then the minimum. lol
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/01/2012 18:11

Originally Posted By: TheAnt
apocalypse approaching when the max is 32 degrees lower then the minimum. lol


Geez, when I posted about the lick of cold air..... - I didnt mean THAT cold wink
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/01/2012 18:30

There is a significant cut-off low to pass below Vic next weekend, this may bring thunder to Vic and potentially damaging wind to campers on Vic's holiday coastal areas. I believe the interstate moderators will now allow a Victorian to start a thread for this event. Could someone please do so?
Posted by: Matt Pearce

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/01/2012 18:45

Petros

There is no distinction between moderators/admin based in Victoria and moderators/admin based in other states. All moderators/admin are tasked with the duty of upholding the guidelines of the Weatherzone Forum. If you feel that this is not occurring, then please take this up privately with admin (you can PM me directly). No further public commentary on matters of moderation will be tolerated.

You are equally as entitled to start a thread as any other forum member, so I encourage you to do so.

Thanks

Matt
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/01/2012 09:06

Originally Posted By: Petros
....Something to watch also, is the lick of cold air (blue line) that has the potential to splash up near Vic circa next Tuesday. That would re-invigorate the cut-off low shown below.......



This is EC's take on the prospect......

Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/01/2012 19:05

EC (ALONE) is continuing to flirt with a major ECL mid (now later) next week - BUT it hasnt agreeement with other models... (mind you if it came off it would be significant weather!

Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/01/2012 20:40

[edit] (why cant we please have a decent edit time?) - sorry Ruckle, should have added this post to your current thread as its simply an extension of what you have been progging in the current weather thread.
Posted by: liberator

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/01/2012 19:22

why not write a reply in word/notepad and then cut n paste when ready?
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/01/2012 19:25

Because edits aren't from the original post, sometimes you just change your mind about something.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/01/2012 20:13

Originally Posted By: liberator
why not write a reply in word/notepad and then cut n paste when ready?


You are spot on, a lengthy post just yesterday made me think of it.

But why do I have to?
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/01/2012 22:53

Looks like a major rainfall event could take place next week.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/01/2012 23:07

Originally Posted By: TheAnt
Looks like a major rainfall event could take place next week.


Yes, Ant. All fairly far out and the models only vaguely coinciding but ... ACCESS has (around the 18th) a major trough linking to a low in Bass Strait; CMC indicates (at about the 14th) moisture streaming in from the west from a low in central WA and (presumably) flowing on westwards in the following couple of days; and GFS (again around the 18th) showing a trough from NW into Vic.

CMC, in fact, has been going back and forth with its scenario fairly consistently over the past few runs

Long way out but there seems some level of convergence of models.

Is this what you're looking at?
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/01/2012 23:13

Yep, ofcourse lots of things can change and will change in the next week.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/01/2012 17:53

Whatever the synoptics, (GFS and AccG differ in scenario) - it does look likely that there will be some rain around Vic on 18/1/12 at this stage smile
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/01/2012 18:08

Interesting possibilities next week at this stage, particularly western partsof the state. Country does look to be loading up for a good one again. Will be interesting to see how it all looks model wise by the weekend.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/01/2012 18:57

Originally Posted By: Petros
The similar scenario continues for next weekend/early week after..
the next chance of storms and some rain.

Something to watch also, is the lick of cold air (blue line) that has the potential to splash up near Vic circa next Tuesday. That would re-invigorate the cut-off low shown below.......




Just a reminder, to myself, ignore GFS 8 day pedictions at your peril.... (we are now looking at 2 days of snow in Vic Mid-January!!!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/01/2012 18:07

It looks like the moisture ex TC Heidi will be pushed into the bight by the high pushing into Vic atm.

So in terms of next week (18/1/12) - I'd say our rain prospects now are tied to the possibility of an ECL to crab down our way from NSW.....

Heres CMC's view:

Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/01/2012 18:30

Yes lots of moisture around for next week, and will be very warm.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/01/2012 20:15

CMC is continuing to flirt with an ECL moving downwards along the NSW coast ....but it is pretty much alone.....


Posted by: Mezo

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/01/2012 20:43

GFS has been progging some nice instability for middle/late next week for a few runs now. We are due for a storm outbreak, so something to keep an eye on.
Posted by: Bulos

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/01/2012 21:17

Originally Posted By: Meso7
GFS has been progging some nice instability for middle/late next week for a few runs now. We are due for a storm outbreak, so something to keep an eye on.


Agree Meso, GFS extended have hinted that unstable/humid conditions return for a rather prolonged period. High pressure systems not at all strong with troughs starting to dip further south again. Nothing record breaking, however a good photo op for you! smile
Posted by: Mezo

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/01/2012 22:05

Yeah late Jan/early Feb is traditionally when we will get another burst of unstable weather so my fingers are crossed. I'm in dire need of a good chase, got a 4 day wknd for Australia day, so Im hoping like crazy something lines up around then!
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/01/2012 08:10

CMC still has Petros's ECL but no one else interested too much. GFS persisting with stormy times next weekend. EC not greatly interested, will be interesting given GFS persistence to see how the weekend of 21/22 actually turns out.
Posted by: duckweather

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/01/2012 11:08

Can't help but feel a 'tweak' in 'me waters' that Tuesday arvo (17th)(and poss. Wedneday) will be interesting in Melb./eastish. Might get a pleasent surprise; more photo and vid opportunities; ducks delighted and it's all a hunch of course.
Watching the movement of the sat. animation and adding a couple of other observations together, I hope I shall not shame myself with this 'prediction' smile
Oh, and Saturday will be a real doozy I reckon. crazy
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/01/2012 18:04

Will be very hot and unstable conditions, and it doesn't look like it will end soon. GFS has the red line all the way up past Victoria on Sunday and Monday, ACCESS not even in Victoria, still looks like above average temperatures for much of February.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/01/2012 19:45

It all looks like a hotch-potch out there for next 10 days to me for Vic, variance in models, chance of a couple of brief hot weather day-pairs, or conditions conjucive of forming an easterly dip scenario, or the potential E Aus easterly moisture to providing an unlikely ECL at the NSW coast......

All stirred up by the recent WA cyclone imo and surely the uncertaintly will result in another cyclone showing up in the next 3-4 days of model runs to present itself next weekend.

I reckon we will have an easterly dip scenario in place to give us a wet weekend next week/early week after to alarm those in N Vic (fresh memories of this time last year) - not a record breaker but significant summer rain.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2012 18:33

That speculated on-and-off NSW coastal cut-off low scenario just wont go away - not progged to affect Vic atm, but fascinating to see such a hard to predict (small scale system) nibbled at by various models circa 7-8 days ahead of its (possible) inception.

Heres AccR for tomorrow....
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/01/2012 20:47

Persistant succession of weak highs in our latitude look to be preventing the chance of a decent trough to dally between them in the outlook. The set-up is doing its best to provide an easterly dip situation for Vic but the high pressure belt is winning out atm.

NSW ECL prospects are now just a rainy area moving out to sea.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/01/2012 20:29

"out there" AccessG has muddled this prospect out in "interstate moderators hatred distance".....



Now these prospects are what keeps weatherzoners like Petros interested! :0
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/01/2012 22:27

There could be some very large rainfall going into next week thats for sure.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/01/2012 23:12

whats the hell of hot day and very cool night now is 16.7 makes me feel warm cloths...
blame cool SE wind over nite then NE day time...
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/01/2012 23:24

Were probably only a degree or two above that CA, a mild summer will be recorded if this trend lasts much longer.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/01/2012 19:14

Someone please help me with the ACCESS models, Sunday its showing the red line near the antarctic, but on Tuesday there's some very cold air approaching Melbourne. Just a glitch in the system?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/01/2012 19:32

Good pickup Ant, looks like AccG is a bit broken in terms of the upper air temperature line colours in its runs for later next week.

Just scanned all the WZ model outlooks from now to end of there runs. What a hotspotch! In a nutshell, its "anything goes" in the upper 1/2 of Aust and cool cloudy outlook for Vic?

What do others reckon?
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/01/2012 09:54

Completely changed now and looks like some good rain for the east.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/01/2012 19:46

Still a hotspotch imo, interesting that CMC is now agreeing with AccG's same scenario for next weekend that it did 2 days ago ....
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/01/2012 18:54

Wow look at Sunday and Monday on the ACCESS models! Funny because it's normally GFS predicting the overly large rainfall, obviously it will change HEAPS over the next week but something to look out for.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/01/2012 20:14



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
I know early days, but Sunday could be a little interesting.

Shall be interesting to see what the models look like at the end of the week.
Posted by: Bulos

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/01/2012 08:19

GFS & ACCESS continue the same train of thought this morning.
Still a little way off firing a new thread up, but Sun/Mon certainly look like the days where this run of great weather could break.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/01/2012 19:15

ACCESS continuing on a good 10-30 mm.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/01/2012 19:56

Wow at GFS for NSW Sunday for NSW. Progged to move ESE off NSW coast before affecting Vic.....


.... but what if it didnt?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/01/2012 20:07

Originally Posted By: Bulos
.......Still a little way off firing a new thread up, but Sun/Mon certainly look like.......


5 days out now Bulos NOBODY should critise you from starting a new thread on these possible outcomes.

Remember we are doing this for fun, interest and shared learning - not to be "discovered as the next future budding oooba-accurate weather forecaster" hoping to get recognised like a budding beauty model. smile
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/01/2012 10:58

So models are still play around with a few different scenarios. Some suggesting a low pressure trough to feed into Vic over the weekend others maybe a cut off low to form in NSW which may touch the far east of the Vic as it travels south east and out to sea.
QLD has a lot of moisture up there to feed the trough, but will the Low forming off WA have an affect, I guess only time will tell.
At this stage it looks like more rain to come for QLD and NSW anyway.
Posted by: S .O.

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/01/2012 14:28

What's Fergus Think ????

Any words from his Throat .

Models are playing " Pick up sticks " every 6 hrs when they have to re evaluate where they went wrong . and try and move forward .

One certainty within the next week , we will get some rain .
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/01/2012 15:46

Nothing from the Fergus yet, obviously waiting until closer to the event for a more accurate forecast!
Posted by: EFujita5

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/01/2012 15:54

so will this moisture make it down into central victoria over the next 7 days from qld?

or is it a different system altogether? are we talking an actual event or just "some" rain
Posted by: S .O.

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/01/2012 16:18

Some rain .

Nth Vic , might get a decent Drink , or even far east .

But central and southern will only see fleeting as cold surge comes up to meet it on the far side of the Trough that'll form below the interior Low .

Could get half an inch or up to 2 if your lucky .
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/01/2012 16:29

Sorry Efuita5, should have worded it differently and used "weekend" rather then event.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/01/2012 16:34

IMO it'll be any storms will be embeded or before the front flattening into one, for Melbourne could be 5mm could be 30mm, who knows.
Posted by: EFujita5

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/01/2012 16:35

Originally Posted By: thunderunder
Sorry Efuita5, should have worded it differently and used "weekend" rather then event.


haha. its ok i actually had to reread your reply like 5 times for me to understand what was going on. i thought to myself "what did i say?!"

its cool. i think anything more than a morning of rain could be classed as an event.

i feel victoria has been really inactive since christmas day. hoping the traditional first weekend in feb will fire up again
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/01/2012 18:58

VERY dynamic situation for most of Aust from the centreline upwards in the 6 day outlook. SEQ flooding in progress, several cylones likely to form. etc...

....but whats in it for us Vic's???

I say its well time for someone to start a (usually despised) "blanket-thread" to cover the outlook from this Sat and at least the next 4 days afterwards.

So many whatifs out there - models all over the shop, if the weak High pressure belt progged to lay under SA-Vic doesnt hold up - then HEAPS of moisture is ready to roll into Vic similar to this time last year.

Here's an interesting AccG possibility....
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/01/2012 19:24

Dramatic events are unfolding over the pastoral interior of NT/QLD/NSW now and for the next couple of days.

Re Vics "out there chances" - in a weeks time we may have another chance of moisture to descend from NSW, the remnants off a WA cyclone to arrive, and a cold air slurp from the southern ocean to all potentially interply DEPENDING on timing.

Its still mild La Nina - Vic wont miss out totally, we just might need to be patient...



This is what CMC reckons at its way out far reaches...
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/01/2012 20:00

I think the persistant ridge will keep Vic out of the potential "tropical air interraction" in play around vast areas of Aus atm in the next 8 days. Thats going by this arvo's model runs.

Not that I'm a Guru by any means...
Posted by: Peng_25

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/01/2012 10:58

Probably more appropriate for this thread rather than the current event, but I think still relevant as we're currently distracted by whats closer to home tracking down from NSW.

What role do we all think Cyclone Iggy will play in the next week or so? Any stronger fronts or troughs that can channel it through Vic will have a potential to replicate some of last years weather IMO!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/01/2012 21:07

Looks like another high pressure sausage below Vic again for the next 4 days at least (if I am reading things right). Another chance for NE moisture ingress compromised like the last system that was "plug-flowed" off yesterday arvo?

BOM are forecasting storm possibilities for SE Vic in a day or so's time - anyone else as pessamistic as me?
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/01/2012 21:19

Do you mean NE Victoria Petros? What im noticing though is that the cold air line is becoming more frequently near Melbourne, looks to be a few cold fronts in the next 10 days.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/02/2012 19:37

Nothing major to excite this easily excitable Victorian in the next 8 days or so.
Posted by: Katyer

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/02/2012 20:14

Petros, BOM is saying Isolated showers and thunderstorms developing over the northwest, mainly in the afternoon tomorrow. Not sure how far north west they mean.
Nothing predicted that I can see for the Central area.
Originally Posted By: Petros
Nothing major to excite this easily excitable Victorian in the next 8 days or so.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/02/2012 00:05

North west enough that central won't get anything imo Katyer, maybe along the ranges but I highly doubt it.
Looking at Sunday a fairly strong cold front to pass through Victoria, not much rainfall though.
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/02/2012 08:31

Unfortunately I couldn't work out how to get one picture out of the four day prediction maps that BoM produce, but I am really liking the look of Sundays map. Cut off lows, cyclones forming, Low off shore (SE) 996hpa, cold fronts, rain.
BoM Four Day Forecast Maps
Ya gotta love the weather???
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/02/2012 22:39

ACCESS and GFS showing some rain coming in from NE/E Victoria into the weekend, I hope this year doesnt continue too much with the rain on weekend trend...
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/02/2012 21:10

Been a bit busy, but yeah storms about Sunday hopefully a thread well and truly up to cater for this.

Went fishing further out and cant see much after this Sunday till next weekend when AccG predicts THIS>>>>

Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/02/2012 07:59

MMMM!! Now that looks interesting. We know it's going to change, but lets hope it changes for the better for Victoria and gives NSW and Qld a break.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/02/2012 10:04

Um, Im probably wrong but is next weekends rain on the ACCESS charts at the moment from an ECL, or just a trough of some sort?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/02/2012 11:58

TheAnt - AccG and GFS are going for an "Easterly Dip" situation forming over inland SE Aus which is progress to form a closed surface low (East Coast Low) over next weekend.

At this stage.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/02/2012 13:38

Looks pretty promising on EC as well, particularly for E VIC and S coast NSW.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/02/2012 13:42

So can you explain to me what an Easterly dip is?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/02/2012 18:35

An easterly dip can occur in summer over inland Qld/Nsw and into N Vic when you have sun over the W areas of these states and NE flow from the Pacific crossing the eastern seaboard.

It looks like this prog by GFS for later next week.....



Re chances of an ECL forming at the "base of the dip" next weekend, GFS is less keen and AccG has softened the prospects with this revised outcome.....



Mind you this is an exciting prospect for us Gippslanders!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/02/2012 18:23

... and 4 days later we have all models agreeing that there will be an easterly dip situation in place by the end of the week which will drag moist NE'ly air into Vic.

Where they disagree is whether this can further evolve into a local low pressure system (ECL) over Vic, or if high pressure over Tassie strenghtens and pushes the moisture back up the NSW E coast.

GFS has spun 180 deg and now is an ECL believer......



Us in SE Vic will be watching this play out with a lot of interest!

I reckon a thread should be started for Thurs - Sun so we can watch it all play out (or dissolve).
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/02/2012 18:57

The North East also looks like it could do well out of this scenario if it comes off as suggested in the GFS model above as well as the majority of the other models I had a look at on WZ. Friday night into Saturday seem to be the days to watch.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/02/2012 21:52

Checked out the models tonight and it is looking good for later in the week and weekend. Looks like it could be stormy too. I hope this one is a cracker!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/02/2012 22:30

TU - let us know what Fergus reckons by Wednesday please.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/02/2012 23:04

Shall do Petros. I havent heard him croak for a while.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/02/2012 20:55

Re 9-12/2/12 event above... so many GFS knockers (moreso on other weather sites than here at WZ), yet so accurate from "way out" - again.... (I can say that because its all arriving/forming as progged).

For folks in SE Vic - my experience is that GFS is the best model for an early prediction of an ECL. BUT - at about day 6-4 out often softens its progs before backing in with an accurate outcome.
Posted by: Mezo

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/02/2012 21:42

Won't hear me knocking GFS. Has about 70-80% strike rate with storms in my experience. That's why I cant understand when people criticize for relying on it for storm forecasting.

Today for instance...



And where did storms fire?

I know it doesn't always get it right and tends to go a little crazy about a week out, but within a few days it's the best guide you'll get if it's storms you're interested in.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/02/2012 23:05

The wz synopitc chart looks interesting for Vic on Wednesday. Although I had a look at some of the models and they dont look all that interesting.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/02/2012 22:19

Had a quick look out 8-10 days - outlook looks rainy (nothing major) - makes me think that the chances of a scorching hot fire-dangerous event for the remainder of the Vic summer danger period look low. Any comments on this?
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/02/2012 06:58

The weather seems to be cooling down somewhat ready for autumn. The nights are cool with the days, just warm to hot at times, but not scorching. I am with you Petros the "scorching hot fire-dangerous event for the remainder of the Vic summer danger period look low". It's a general feel rather than anything scientific that leads me to this conclusion.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/02/2012 11:13

Well the hot air line going into late next week and beyond is getting closer then it has the last 2 weeks, its nudging into Victoria at one stage, but I think severe fires are a very slim chance.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/02/2012 17:52

GFS, at the end of its outlook from todays run is showing an almost identical easterly system to affect Vic from next Sunday into the middle of next week (my extropolation) as we've just experienced over the last 4 days.

BOM outlook for this comming week is cool, so if more of the same the week after its GOODBYE summer.

Heres GFS "way out" at the end of its run in 8 days time....


One of these will result in an ECL that produces rain sooner or later - which I think most of us "feel in our bones" the way this summer is panning out.
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/02/2012 18:25

Quite a warm week forecast for the coming week 34c for Wed and 35cs for Thurs and Fri and Sat so some good rain would be very welcome up here I think.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/02/2012 20:02

BOM has temps to 31C down this way too for this week Gabby, I put my hand up as being guilty of assuming that temps would down this way due to showers being forecast all this coming week for Gippsland. Sorry about that.
Posted by: S .O.

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/02/2012 21:53

Originally Posted By: Petros
GFS, at the end of its outlook from todays run is showing an almost identical easterly system to affect Vic from next Sunday into the middle of next week (my extropolation) as we've just experienced over the last 4 days.

BOM outlook for this comming week is cool, so if more of the same the week after its GOODBYE summer.

Heres GFS "way out" at the end of its run in 8 days time....


One of these will result in an ECL that produces rain sooner or later - which I think most of us "feel in our bones" the way this summer is panning out.


Maybe more of a , Hello " Indian " Summer .

the Following High behind that System looks to be centred right down near 50 S . So "it" could hang around longer than the Usual 10-14day " weather Reversal " that tends to happen when these types of patterns set in .
On top of this I would expected the WA trough to join the Party at some time also . My feeling is that Your Particular ECL maybe focused further Nth ( Wollongong ??? ) , and will only see Far eastern Gippsland strongly effected .

But then we are talking a fair way out , ALTHOUGH this is just seasonal TALK .
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/02/2012 15:09

Easterly dip, not ECL. Still looks very possible going by last nights model runs.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/02/2012 15:57

Looks like Summers last gasps will be on Sunday.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/02/2012 18:42

GFS is still sticking with the E dip scenario for next weekend, AccR, WZ, & EC show a trend towards this too. With the passing front on Thurdsay it looks like a natural outcome to me. AccG thinks that the weekend will be subject to a passing low pressure system. Either way, they are all mooting more rain (not flooding at this stage) - but as usual I'm watching and expecting one soon out in Gippland.

Heres GFS's latest......

Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/02/2012 16:21

Looks like an ECL next Tuesday/Wednesday? Mainly affecting NSW but parts of Eastern and North Eastern Vic aswell.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/02/2012 20:34

Thanks for the heads up TheAnt (although I reckon you have been a contributor long enough to start backing up your progs with a reference source [eg. AccG reckons that....]).


Outside of Ants AccG scenario for early next week, the general easterly dip scenario establishing itself over Vic this weekend is not generally supported by all models.

Taking the mid prog (between extremes) - heres EC's outlook.....

Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/02/2012 21:25

Today the easterly dip outcome I've been banging on about has morphed into a pair of passing low pressure troughs (the first tomorrow) with the hint of a little cut-off to lag by only < 12hrs on the second trough passing later in the weekend. GFS....

Posted by: S .O.

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/02/2012 23:15

Quote from my post above .

" So "it" could hang around longer than the Usual 10-14day " weather Reversal " that tends to happen when these types of patterns set in .
On top of this I would expected the WA trough to join the Party at some time also . "

i presume this second injection will be your ECL culprit . The First Trough will be TOO south reaching as hinted in my High placement well south statement . It seems the second maybe a little far Nth for a Bass Strait genesis . . ?

I think i should look at models before i post . LOL
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/02/2012 22:09

SO, after the top 2 paragrahs are absorbed by a dummy like me (this may take a re-readtomorrow morning smile , wrong or right, I'm not gunna disagree with you! smile
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/02/2012 20:44

Hmm, ACCESS and GFS (cant see other models) hinting at a NE (?) infeed into SA later next week which will then at some stage move into Victoria, possibly in combination with a cold front? Petros/Ruckle/Most of you probably know what it means.
Posted by: S .O.

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/02/2012 22:32

Originally Posted By: Petros
SO, after the top 2 paragrahs are absorbed by a dummy like me (this may take a re-readtomorrow morning smile , wrong or right, I'm not gunna disagree with you! smile


Petros ,

To try and explain myself , I was responding to your questioning of the ECL possibility's . I originally discussed that I reckon this Trough dominated weather was here for alot longer than it usually lasts . ( 10-14 is the Norm , and Central / Nth and West Vic , tends to see there usual weather run in Reverse . )
This pattern ( which seems to be The La Nina's peak early next Month ) may see us Have an indian Summer well into Autumn , I can't see this Easterly dominated Troughyness being broken other than a couple of slight changes till mid - late March.

It might only take one or two NW infeed ( not far from average for Early Autumn , be it tail end of Kimberley/ Broome TC or just the first event of IOD [ think Hail storm 2010 ] proceeding the First Strong fronts , to see The Murray join the Darling in Flood this year . This next few weeks could provide the Primer for whenever we see a Significant NW infeed/ infeeds . From what I can see , The IOD is a fair chance to go strong negative this Autumn , add this to the Evaporative load that Lake Eyre and Menindee Region will provide for Pre Frontal Moisture .

The Trough the other day extended too Far south ( for ECL genesis ) as a result of the High and the convergence south west corner ( where a Front usually meets the Trough ) being Too far south also . This second one Tomorrow seems to have most of its energy Too far Nth , in the Trough , which is probably seeded to from outflow from WA's Trough . So Mid coast of NSW will see the worst that this can deliver .
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/02/2012 20:32

Great wrap up SO. Agree with the outlook for Vic over the next 6-8 weeks (not saying my opinion is in anyway as accurate as others).

A dampish week ahead for Vic, followed by a humid sunny period Fri/Sat before settling into more dampness (one of these "dampness" events will be WET over the next couple of months IMO).
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/02/2012 22:25

Well Petros look at ACCESS and GFS latests runs, disagreements as to where the rain will come from, but definetly rain.
Posted by: Lindsay Knowles

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/02/2012 06:28

Had to laugh at the channel 7 news last night. (Sydney one) Had us down for a 38c this coming Sunday. I wish
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/02/2012 17:58

Heard Terry Ryan mooting "quite useful" rain to come for Vic into next weekend.

Looks like the high pressure system building for Vic atm will advect moist air from the interior (rather than the usual dry fire feeding winds more typical of this time of the year) as it departs Saturday night.

So it looks like a thundery saturday evening, with a decent (cold air'wise) cold front to intrude into the humid airmass over Vic towards Sunday evening. Terry says "useful rain" - Petros says "east coast low".

Could this be the drenching event most of us think is lurking out there in the wings?

GFS's latest (an exciting setup):



Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/02/2012 18:08

Petros im not 100% on this but it doesn't look to me like an ECL, from what I can see as you mention the high advects the moisture into Victoria (also assisted by an inland trough from SA that will deepen and go into Victoria, before a nice mass of cold air comes in, depending on when this cold front comes there could be a lot of different scenarios.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/02/2012 21:13

Just saw this arvos AccG and EC, they agree with you TA, looks like GFS is out on a limb with this prog atm.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/02/2012 21:26

Mind you ACCESS now not confident in Saturday producing anything at all for all of Victoria.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/02/2012 21:30

Yep I have bean keeping a keen eye on the models for the last 24 hours.
Posted by: S .O.

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/02/2012 22:13

Originally Posted By: Petros
Heard Terry Ryan mooting "quite useful" rain to come for Vic into next weekend.

Looks like the high pressure system building for Vic atm will advect moist air from the interior (rather than the usual dry fire feeding winds more typical of this time of the year) as it departs Saturday night.

So it looks like a thundery saturday evening, with a decent (cold air'wise) cold front to intrude into the humid airmass over Vic towards Sunday evening. Terry says "useful rain" - Petros says "east coast low".

Could this be the drenching event most of us think is lurking out there in the wings?



GFS's latest (an exciting setup):


[edit] - I invite an avid weather follower to start a new thread for Vic on this pending event (dont worry, Im not setting anyone up, its now in legal outlook range according to the interstate moderators).


I think your right that this System will deliver usefull totals , as For ECL i'm not convinced . Regardless , it will be another slower moving Trough/front ??? system . Probably the system your thinking of / praying for ; will be more of a northern country Vic episode . And will be near stationary low that will deepen from the North . Could be a month or two until you see a " classic " Vic (below 36' parallel ) ECL ....

So i think GFS is on this . If you note the cut -off that is to form SW of WA and well nth of the Prevailing Roaring Forty Westerlies . Well this system was first picked up by GFS , then EC and then this morning Access . So if they get that right and it gathers momentum draws down from the WA trough and combines with the next surge in frontal activity come Sunday then its going to be on statewide . But that other strong system /scenario is out there , its just waiting for the right opportunity . Watch for a Blocking high to sit well below the bight around 50 deg S or even lower !!!!!
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/02/2012 16:01

Looks like theres a cool change on Sunday without any rain (according to ACCESS) this has no impact on rainfall on Monday but could impact on storm development?
Posted by: Mezo

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/02/2012 16:04

GFS has lost all interest in storms for the weekend, so probably.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/02/2012 18:46

What seems to have happened to me is the formation of a large ECL off NSW central coast right now/tonight. This is progged to move rapidly off to NZ taking the potential moisture that Vic "could have got" this weekend along with it. Those damned ECL's are buggers of things to predict.



That leaves Vic with the same northerly/NE air flow this weekend, but with dry air instead.

So lets enjoy a sunny "last?" hot sunny weekend before grizzling about trying to get the long grass dry enough to mow the weekend after! wink

Interestingly, GFS still is the "wetest" model for the days after the weekend coming.

The formation of todays ECL off NSW, although not a Vic event confirms the volitility of this late summer/autumn pattern in SE Aus with LaNinas last gasp, and an abundance of moisture infeeds to Vic continuing.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/02/2012 18:54

Petros the sypnotic harts (and Nine news poke ) are saying that in an inland trough currently over around Queensland, NSW etc is the thing feeding the moisture, the low of the coast of NSW shouldn't affect it too much I think, but yeah I think this is probably going to be one of the last high 20s low to mid 30 runs for a few days going into Autumn.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/02/2012 20:08

Yeah, Ant, latest AccG retains the chance of moist air advectation from the NE (albiet a little later) circa Mon next week. I'll sit on the fence given that an ECL may have already spawned - earlier than I'd interpreted from the charts. Systems like this suck moisture from the NW flank and also cool the ocean as they head away (taking all the energy off with them).

Refer below....
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/02/2012 15:37

Could someone please start a thread for upcoming system, lots to disguss and you know Fergus might even have something to say later in the week.

If I head it up, it would go something like this "Bloody warm sweaty weekend coming up, Storms and showers followed by a front on Monday that will then bring rain and I anticipate it to become bloody wet". So best me not do it.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/02/2012 16:03

I was suprised by ACCESS latests run, nothing really for central Saturday, Sunday (storms around the ranges usual etc) and the front looked quite weak, but as it goes through Victoria on Monday it unleashes a widespread 30-40mm. Also if no one else does i'll start the next thread with the nightly model runs if thats ok with you guys.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/02/2012 19:21

Holy moly ACCESS... look at those rainfall totals, im not sure if people want THAT to come off.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/02/2012 20:41

Models are starting to look really interesting tonight. Tuesday looking HOT to TROT.

No thread yet.....
You all dont really want me to head one up do you? Unless your in for a cackle.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/02/2012 20:52

Go on TU - it will be the best thread ever (for an initial significant rain post for Vic, during 2012 wink ).

As you guys have said - this could be significant! ..

Posted by: dylos

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/02/2012 02:24

gfs this evening has forecasting a monster upper low or something coming up from the south with very strong winds over victoria for the end of feb or early march. if that comes off there will be problems especially with some saturation in the ground after this week
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/02/2012 18:54

Yeah after our damp start to next week, a massive rainfall event looks to be quite likely over central/southern NSW, possibly including N central Vic as well. Something to look out for.

28C max here today, the morning cloud took ages to burn off. Quite "autumnly".
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/02/2012 19:18

Yeah Petros noticed that, possible ECL? only GFS are really onto anything in Victoria.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/02/2012 21:34

A significant flooding event about to involve most of S NSW over at the end of this week, could involve Vic gippsland as well?

Love to read a tech analysis as I'm too tired to type out my usual drivel.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/02/2012 22:00

Doubt it Petros, none of the runs are putting it nearly that far south, sorry im not the expert you're looking for but neither GFS, Access are saying anything big for Victoria apart from the far north over the next week, only interesting event is another rain event which could put another 15-30mm in parts of the state.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/02/2012 22:18

Todays runs had cooled off re rain coming into Vic but this evenings run is a bit more south. Latest GFS run Petros for 72 hours (there is more higher rainfall up to 180 hrs). My computor keeps getting hot, and I had saved this in my pictures.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: S .O.

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/02/2012 22:25

I think you maybe onto something Petros , but i beleive the WA Trough might have something to say in this regard . Its going to be a armwrestle of sorts for this Troughs attaction , unfortunatley for our Sydney -Nowra ( flood doomsayers ) it looks like the Cetral NSW Surface Low that was going to drag off alot of this Moisture into the Lower Tasman has got some competition from the West , and Depending on ridgeing Direct South Central Vic could win ( though many will say lose - with potential metro Flooding ) and then Tassie and maybe even Gippsland .

But it seems immeasurable so Even I won't back any scenario going forward , All i can see is that someone is going to get extremely wet or everyone will get reasonably wet . But a Guarantee that eventually large Portions of SE SA will get well waterlogged .........
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/02/2012 22:36

Aaaah, wish I had read SO's before I posted my silly picture, wasn't sure what Petro's was referring to.
Posted by: Things

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/02/2012 11:30

Not sure if this is still part of the low pres trough system, though:

A low pressure trough over New South Wales will deepen overnight with a ridge extending south of Tasmania. These two systems will combine with an upper level trough to produce heavy rainfall over the northeast of Victoria overnight and on Thursday.

Heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding is forecast overnight and on Thursday for the North East forecast district and eastern parts of the Northern Country and East Gippsland forecast districts. Rainfall totals of 50 to 100mm are expected with localised higher totals possible.


BoM has 50mm for my area for tomorrow.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/03/2012 10:26

There is a couple things of interest currently from ACCESSG and GFS, both are going for ECLs which should atleast effect far eastern Victoria, GFS has a couple of cyclones in the West, don't know whether or not the remanants will effect Victoria yet.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/03/2012 23:25

TheAnt - please start a thread for the potential ECL to affect Gippsland from tomorrow to later in the week.

At home we have lake Glenmaggie being spilt (3 ML/day - below minor flood level) to try to reduce to a 91% full level to provide some air space. Imo this may be upsized to something more like 60 ML/day by next Sunday.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/03/2012 11:53

Petros - have you gone on strike to start threads? I like the way you word up and explain future weather coming.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/03/2012 19:27

I don't mind if anyone starts the thread, but looking at next week Wednesday-Thursday possibly Friday look pretty wet..
Posted by: Mezo

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/03/2012 22:45

Yeah, some interesting storm prospects at the end of the latest gfs runs. One last round of fireworks?

Never a good idea to get too excited by such predictions from gfs this far out tho. Will probably shift all the instability in to NSW in the next run or two.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/03/2012 16:25

Well the worst instability is in NE/N/E Victoria. However ACCESS is predicting some weird stuff...
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/03/2012 17:24

Just had a look at latest GFS run at 00z run today. Only one run at this stage, but targeting North East for next week, with some high rainfall. I will be keeping a close watch.

Ant what do you mean by weird stuff?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/03/2012 22:16

A fair bit of conjecture about another rain event later next week around the traps, this is the worst outcome I can come up with using the WZ models....

Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/03/2012 22:27

Not really sure how to explain it TU, ACCESS may have downgraded the models, but BSCH are now going for potentially severe storms across a decent chunk of Victoria.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/03/2012 18:55

As for ACCESS they have downgraded this system quite a bit, but the next one following looks to be an infeed event which will then mix with possibly a cold front which also has a purple line in it, Petros/Ruckle/anyone explain that to me?
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/03/2012 19:40

There are hints at in feed from various tropical systems in all the models. As for the purple line, thats some pretty cold air. Snow /Sleet to sea level type stuff (well potentially). Get excited if 24 hours out its progged to cross VIC otherwise....generally it gets close to Tassie a few times a year.

Obviously IF cold air was approaching a lingering trough with tropical infeed it would most likely lift it or wring it out so to speak creating the potential for heavy rain over a reasonable area. IF that was to happen.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/03/2012 20:29

Interesting Ruckle, does it hang around the bottom of the chart in winter often? I too think that if the tropical infeed mixes with one of those fronts theres potential for some very heavy rain.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/03/2012 21:35

You see the odd "purple line" behind a front during the cooler half of the year.
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/03/2012 08:59

Originally Posted By: TheAnt
Interesting Ruckle, does it hang around the bottom of the chart in winter often? I too think that if the tropical infeed mixes with one of those fronts theres potential for some very heavy rain.
Very unusual to have the purple line this far north for this time of the year.I see the temps in the antartica have been running well below average for a while now.The next 3 mths will be very interesting with the cold fronts to come through having a bit more potency.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/03/2012 09:38

12Z run has GFS and EC both suggesting a solid rainfall event next weekend, particularly for the NW of the state. Will be fun to look at this post in 7 days and see if that verifies even vaguely.
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/03/2012 09:58

I should imagine that the monsoon and cyclone or low depression development and consequent movement and in-feed will play a crucial role in how much rain we get and where it falls and of course the timing of fronts etc, has to be just right as well. It's very busy on the NW coast at the moment and things seem to be hotting up on the NE coast so in-feed could come from that direction too. It will be very interesting to watch as this unfolds.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/03/2012 10:33

I should point out it will be less "fun"if it does for folks N of the divide.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/03/2012 10:57

Can't see 16 day GFS so am wondering what will happen after Saturday at the moment, that will definetly prompt flooding if it comes off.
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/03/2012 11:07

Originally Posted By: Ruckle
I should point out it will be less "fun"if it does for folks N of the divide.

Absolutely Ruckle! In no way do I want to see flooding like we have had. We however are looking at the weather from a purely meteorological point of view. The thought of what damage any more rain might do is horrifying. It is very hard to word our musings about coming weather in a way that does not give the impression we are in any way excited about the prospect of flooding rains and the consequences it brings. I know we all try very hard to discuss coming weather from a purely scientific perspective. The human cost is another thing entirely.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/03/2012 19:04

GFS really stalling it out.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/03/2012 20:49

Whatever eventuates, it will be after a warm mid to late week. All though the models show the rain arriving as a snotball from the west, one would think that several days of northerly into Vic will bring a lot of moisture from the soaked paddocks from NSW. This moisture may not be accounted for in the model mathematics??
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/03/2012 17:46

There is so much weather for Vic in this last hurrah of the "little LaNina" that its hard to itemize events to come. Very much the "wicked onslaught" (my words) that our intrepid predictor AV has been mooting for weeks - and has come to play, on other forums (but he is a member here too).

Ignoring the potential for a storm mid next week, and the well discussed potention rain event for next weekend,.... "way out there" AccG shows this in the far outlook.

Here's what "I'm talkin about"...
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/03/2012 17:50

Petros if you have Pro don't you have GFS 16 days out? Whats that predicting?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/03/2012 17:59

I have it Ant, but generally never open it, just too far out.

For you, heres its take for Monday week....
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/03/2012 18:34

Their latest while not on Victorias doorstep is quite scary..A line that could basically cross ALL of Australia.
Posted by: S .O.

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/03/2012 18:53

Yes , BOM and others have less late this coming week .

But saying that , all have some " we're Surrounded " forecast for Early/ Middle the following week . With an ECL to our East ( Possible Retrograde ) , Trough to our N , and another Trough/Cut Off / Frontal Connection to our WNW ...........

Of course we will be sandwiched in the Middle of this in a Thin Ridge / double yoking High . So when and if it gets to that , we can takes odds to ehich of the Three will be Nth Vic's Downfall..... sorry Rainfall ......
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/03/2012 21:21

"SO" can't believe I am saying "NO MORE RAIN PLEASE" after a ten year drought.

For anyone who managed to see the Weekly Times last Wedndsday it gave a really good account of how much rain fell in Victoria and the impact it has had.
Posted by: S .O.

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/03/2012 21:41

Personally , I reckon your not going to see anything remotely like you've just witnessed in an Extremely Long Time . But its not to say that the Usual suspects in the NE , and more so the N Central and NW is due for something .
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/03/2012 09:29

Saw the ACCESS models this morning, all lining up next Wednesday, then I see the 15-20 mm and im sure most (mostly NE/E/N) will be thankful that it's not major.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/03/2012 11:03

Keep an eye out for mid week, the week after this (20-22/3/12), it looks potentially very wet for large areas of Vic to me.
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/03/2012 11:16

Next weeks weather is very dependent on the movement of the cyclones/rain depression in WA and NT once they cross the coast. It appears that the NT one will cross and then take a SSE track so that may be the one to watch. The WA one is an absolutely huge system in size, not necessarily strength and there is no consensus on what track it will take after landing. but at this stage seems to be SE from what I understand. If the expected trough/front coincides with these and pulls down some of that moisture, along with the moisture already here, then the outlook for us is rain, rain, and more rain, but it's a long way off yet. Quite a scarey thought though.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/03/2012 18:32

Latest AccG is quite scary for Gippsland residents one would think..
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/03/2012 18:51

ECL predicted by ACCG for Monday.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/03/2012 16:40

Now GFS are going for some cold air right up to Victoria next Thursday, interesting times ahead next week or two!
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/03/2012 16:46

Wrong thread
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/03/2012 16:48

Gabby think you've got the threads confused haha.
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/03/2012 16:48

Beat me to it Ant!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/03/2012 21:54

Classic looking cold front to crash into whatever atmospheric conditions are about in Vic next Tue-Thur. 15mm a monty for most in southern to central areas of Vic from my take on things. What an interesting Autumn break we are experiencing this year!
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/03/2012 16:52

I like the look of BoM 4 day outlook maps. Looks like a trough? with same set up as last event, tapping into Gulf low or ex cyclone, with cut off low as well, I think?
Correct me if I'm wrong I don't mind at all.
Posted by: Things

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/03/2012 16:54

Yes, some rain forecast here from about Wed, followed by a 8C min and 19C max on Saturday. Wow smile
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/03/2012 16:56

Not sure Gabby but check out GFS!! Cold air line up to Melbourne!
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/03/2012 17:55

Temperature dropping in the next week or so at a rapid rate of knots. I was hoping it would stay relatively warm for Easter.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/03/2012 09:44

Even further up now...going to be VERY cold, first outbreak since early January.
Posted by: Peng_25

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/03/2012 20:14

Looks like some pretty frigid air to hover us for the next week or so following tomorrows rain band. I think its fair to say today was our last warm day of the season.

Looking longer term, a large high seems to be calling Victoria home from next Tuesday afternoon onwards before the suggestion of trough feature establishes over inland NSW and influences NE Victoria right at the end of the models forecast period (Friday 30 March) (as depicted by ACCESSG below):
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/03/2012 20:19

Wonder what GFS is saying that far out and beyond.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/03/2012 22:05

After Friday there could be an interesting build up ahead, I don't have models that far out but there might be an event or two lurking around...
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/03/2012 23:41

Hello winter.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/03/2012 20:44

An interesting week ahead with 1 or two events developing...Unsure about storm chances
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/03/2012 21:49

I know your meant to take the 28 day rainfall with a grain of salt but...That's looking like a lot of likely rain.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/03/2012 20:56

I'm keeping an eye on the chance of a large low pressure system that might form S of WA early this week. Models say it should be out of puff before it makes it to SE Aus, but something to watch.

Meanwhile, clear skys down this way during the week might let me get a couple more swims in before the season heads full time into winter.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/03/2012 21:03

That on the sypnotic becomes a cold front which should hit on Sunday. Wonder what the storm chances are? BOM aren't going for it, and BSCH are just for parts of Victoria.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/03/2012 14:31

Maybe a chance of a thunderstorm on Sunday 1st in the NorthEast. I am no expert on the in and outs of what triggers them. But BOM suggesting a chance for the North East and it is showing up on the stormcast on BSCH. So might be of intersest to the stormchasers and watchers.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/03/2012 22:22

The odd gusty NW'ly ahead of a couple of brief low-rain changes for the outlook make for a mild Easter (Monday may be a bit wet for the trip back but).
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/04/2012 19:42

Southern Oracles post in the other thread about Easter Monday system might be a doozy looks pretty good at the moment...
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/04/2012 21:19

Yep, by Tues/Wed post Easter, we look to have a wintery system on our doorstep.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/04/2012 18:57

Originally Posted By: Petros
Yep, by Tues/Wed post Easter, we look to have a wintery system on our doorstep.


Well thanks Petros smile I'm coming down home to Gippy for a one week break Easter Friday to the next Saturday and you have to tell me that! grin I guess it'll be a change from the weather here, NW of Alice. Nothing under max 30C for weeks and the past few days 39+ (40.3C today) Not much if any rain past few weeks. Talk to you (on the forum) when I'm home.

Cheers,

Bob
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/04/2012 20:04

Friday looks like a possible storm day.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/04/2012 20:54

Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
Originally Posted By: Petros
Yep, by Tues/Wed post Easter, we look to have a wintery system on our doorstep.


(40.3C today)

Actually, 41.3C
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/04/2012 21:58

BSCH's timing is sometimes off.... Tuesday and Wednesday Lifted Index levels look pretty darn high...
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/04/2012 18:36

Can someone please explain what GFS is hinting at next week?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/04/2012 21:47

GFS is mooting for a low pressure system to move into WNW Vic by Tuesday 10/4/12 - a very interesting scenario to keep Petros watching like a hawk.

BUT - there are no other backers for this scenario, in fact there is amazing divergence between models for next week.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/04/2012 22:19

Is it a cut off low or something?
Posted by: S .O.

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/04/2012 23:59

Yeah GFS , Drunk with Conviction ?????
A Cut Off forming and stalling in the Bight Wednesday onwards , and just to be over the Top GFS has it retrograding NW ward ...????????
It's been a Weird pattern this week that looks set to turn rediculous next week . ?
As for my call for Monday , it was always gonna be something significant to "Back" Bookend this extremely large LWT that has skimmed below us all this week .
Be it something Flying up from Deep South , or something building from the Interior or NW . !
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/04/2012 09:09

GFS finally realised how stupid theres was, and matched it pretty much with the BOM. Not only to mention that SO, but it generating widespread storms aswell?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/04/2012 18:08

Yep GFS has let that scenario go and most models give us another indian summer period later next week. That will be nice - particularly down at Inverloch (will have the family down).

We just have to weather some snotty windy cold stuff after tonights thundery change in the meantime.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/04/2012 18:23

Well next week just going by the BOM forecasts its back to same weather as last week... so Summers not had its last gasp just yet by the looks of things. Also looks like a trough should settle on the east coast next week, could bring some storms later?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/04/2012 21:14

Another indian summer about to start for Vic tomorrow - possibly through to next Monday?
Posted by: Mezo

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/04/2012 08:19

Well, it's going to be 22c or more for the length of the 7 days forecast here. I will happily take that in April! Lovin the mild temps, the longer the cold can stay away the better. Gee, the nights are getting chilly, though.
Posted by: Things

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/04/2012 12:12

Hehe, I'm the opposite. Tired of the heat, moved away from Cairns to get away from it, it has delivered so far grin
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/04/2012 15:12

Yeah I hate the heat actually, bring on winter I say! smile
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/04/2012 12:41

CMC look a little excited for Friday. Any thoughts?

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
OOps sorry already a thread going. Anyway will disguss in other thread.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/04/2012 23:36

So models are all differing for next week. Could be bugger all in rainfall or it may get interesting.
GFS run tonight, could be something to keep a watch on.


Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/04/2012 08:31

and GFS has gone com-ple-tely different. Now they have a huge cold burst on Monday, followed by a cut-off? or ECL developing in eastern Victoria.
Posted by: Katyer

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/04/2012 10:19

Interesting with differing forecasts and models and confusing if you take much notice.

BOM says possible thunderstorms with the Tullamarine forecast, but on forecast explorer it has them further north and storm tracker has none for near us. So where are they likely to develop if at all?
Look at the 7 day forecast on here and for Wednesday it says "possible shower" 10-20mm ??? from a "possible shower"??? I have noticed the forecast on WZ, especially the 48 hr can often change completely. It now says around 3pm "intermittent rain" for our area. Really ??? rain or showers, make up your mind. There is no way I can go by their forecasts most days.
I thought they got their info from BOM, or even so, don't they have access to the same weather predicting forecasting techniques as BOM ? Very confusing. I find most of you on here predict far better than WZ. Also if you want to check anything further than national with charts it wants you to upgrade. What a great service.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/04/2012 12:00

Katyer - Mmmm, from my experience I find the BOM to be fairly acurate on the morning of each day.
Most of the farmers around here always seem to know what is in the horizon and they usually listen to the weather on the ABC radio.
I personnally like to look at the models and then get confused but eventually they seem to all come together.
The more knowlable around here have a better understanding of which models are more accurate for different systems, time of the year etc. The most obvious is anything a week out is pretty unreliable but sometimes they can be a warning of things to come if they keep showing simialar outcomes with each run as the days tick over.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/04/2012 12:04

Katyer I recommend you look at the central area forecast district on the BOM site to give you a general idea of whats happening, then after learning what it means its easier to understand the weather situation.
Posted by: Katyer

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/04/2012 12:14

Yes, I usually stick with BOM and their weather & wave maps and forecast explorer and usually I find them pretty good.
It is specifically the forecast from WZ that I am referring to and its 48 hr forecast which I am finding to be unreliable.
Originally Posted By: thunderunder
Katyer - Mmmm, from my experience I find the BOM to be fairly acurate on the morning of each day.
Most of the farmers around here always seem to know what is in the horizon and they usually listen to the weather on the ABC radio.
I personnally like to look at the models and then get confused but eventually they seem to all come together.
The more knowlable around here have a better understanding of which models are more accurate for different systems, time of the year etc. The most obvious is anything a week out is pretty unreliable but sometimes they can be a warning of things to come if they keep showing simialar outcomes with each run as the days tick over.
Posted by: Katyer

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/04/2012 12:16

Yes Ant, that's what I have been doing for a long time now, but I decided to give WZ forecast a go as well, as I thought it may be a little more detailed, but it is only confusing me, so I will now stick with BOM and the Storm Forecaster you recommended ages ago.
Originally Posted By: TheAnt
Katyer I recommend you look at the central area forecast district on the BOM site to give you a general idea of whats happening, then after learning what it means its easier to understand the weather situation.
Posted by: Katyer

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/04/2012 12:22

On a positive note I do like the images on here for the satellite and radar, even with my basic membership that is not WZ Pro, I find I can get enough info.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/04/2012 22:45

Anyone noticed anything significant to affect Vic mid next week?

[edit] - just noticed ThunderUnders post a few back - that scenario is getting more likely???
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/04/2012 22:03

Looking way out, the departure of the large high (an early high latitude winter jobby) could bring a lot of moisture into inland Qld and the potential formation of an easterly dip.

Way out there, but looks plausible and fits with late April easterly setups that often arrive down in our parts.

[edit] - "way out there" meaning the weekend after this.
Posted by: S .O.

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/04/2012 22:50

May is the historical Home of the Tasman ECL .!
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/04/2012 20:42

Originally Posted By: thunderunder
So models are all differing for next week. Could be bugger all in rainfall or it may get interesting.
GFS run tonight, could be something to keep a watch on.

That was for today...GFS a week ago predicting 60-80mm...lol. Anyway remind me what an easterly dip is again Petros? GFS and ACCESSG look strikingly similair for next week on Wednesday and into the future.
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/04/2012 09:46

Another easterly dip, Petros? Sounds like a dance at a deb ball!!!lol! Last one brought some good rain falls. Sat Pic looking impressive if that is what we are waiting for? I have been preoccupied and am behind the times in weather predictions etc. I'll have to catch up.
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/04/2012 11:44

The next cold front comes through on tuesday, will we see the usual 15 degree max and a passing storm or two?
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/04/2012 14:30

Doubt any storms will happen on Tuesday.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/04/2012 20:16

GFS shows an easterly dip situation later this week...
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/04/2012 20:49

looking interesting down south petros from the 2nd - 7th may
bom access interactive indicating a unified and combined upper, mid and surface low over vic, followed by a strong high pressure cell following and a strong surface low following that ,in south west wa
cold ,wet and snow??
anyway ACCESS presents this as a strong feature ATM
UPPER LOW , CLOSED..OVER VIC FOR 3 DAYS
THURS, FRI, SATURDAY
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
signs of early winter.??
autumn came early maybe winter early as well?

Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/04/2012 21:25

Petros that looks like last weeks set up of a cut off low?
Posted by: duckweather

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/04/2012 10:28

Looking at WZ stats for possibility for Wantirna, the possible rainfall is for 10-20mm for the next 5'ish days crazy
This will be interesting to see how this pans out. Might begin a hibernation smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/05/2012 22:19

Originally Posted By: TheAnt
Petros that looks like last weeks set up of a cut off low?

Last weeks would up as it left us in the Tasman.

This one could be stationary, hence my excitment in the now open thread. smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/05/2012 21:28

The above should have read "last weeks wound up after it....."
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/05/2012 21:52

Originally Posted By: Petros
Looking way out, the departure of the large high (an early high latitude winter jobby) could bring a lot of moisture into inland Qld and the potential formation of an easterly dip.

Way out there, but looks plausible and fits with late April easterly setups that often arrive down in our parts.

[edit] - "way out there" meaning the weekend after this.


The models are good, even from so far back, this is a likely (near miss) outcome....


Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/05/2012 17:57

Yet ANOTHER cut off low predicted by ACCESS? Is it meant to be that common at this time of year?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/05/2012 22:05

Certainly popping up nicely this (late) Autumn, and at the right time for these setups for Vic. If one of these sits out near Merimbula, look out.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/05/2012 20:19

Us down Inverloch way will enjoy a couple of calm sunny days late Wed - Fri next week if the high in the bight arrives as the current model runs say it will.

No notable "weather" looming in the next 8 days going by todays runs if I am reading the runes correctly??
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/05/2012 17:49

Maybe not for the next 8 Petros, but certainly straight after that there seems to be a huge cold burst coming, probably will be the biggest snow event from the year from the models just looking at it.
Posted by: Scooteroo

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/05/2012 22:18

I hope you are right TheAnt. Both EC and GFS are showing something brewing in the southern ocean next week, however the timing is inconsistent between the models. Lets hope for something good!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/05/2012 21:52

The current model run hints at the possibility of a extensive wet system along the Aust Eastern coastal seaboard towards the end of next week. It will be a race between this and an approaching low pressure system from the W. Meanwhile we can enjoy some sunshine for a few days beforehand.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/05/2012 11:03

Hubby has given up waiting for some pre top soil moisture to put the crops in and is starting today (mind you we are baby croppers so only a 100 acres to sow which doesn't take too long). So really hoping your onto something Petros. Had a look at models and looks like a bit of wet weather may be heading this way towards the end of next week. Still a long way off and chances are it could fizzle into nothing and we miss out again.
Posted by: S .O.

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/05/2012 13:31

This may put you at ease TU .

Re: The Indian Ocean Dipole and the season ahead. [Re: adon]
ROM
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2007
Loc: Horsham in western Victoria This is for Adon and all those grain growers out there.

The SAM index graph for the 16th May which is still negative although not radically so.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/verf/new.aao.shtml



And for the period about ten days to a fortnight later, here are the predicted rainfall maps

Two current ECMWF maps for around the 26th May. These have and will change in detail as the forecast is out near the end of the time period for the current ability to make believable predictions.
However the BOM guys tell me that this is the best model around at the moment and it does seem to be quite good in it's maps and rainfall predictions for our region here in west Vic even way out near the prediction time limits.

http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Horsham/advanced_map.html



Not sure I am supposed to be able to access this [ sample below ] on on a regular basis as the ECMWF isn't supposed to directly release rainfall forecasts but must only do so though it's member state weather organisations.
I tried to get the rainfall predictions directly for Australia before I was informed of the Norwegian yr.no site and was told in an e-mail from the ECMWF, no go.

The site below is a sample site but seems to stay right up to date with it's animated maps

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/animate/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!228!Australia!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2012051612!!!step/

I suspect that this above link is locked so you will have to copy and paste the link to get the map. Works for me when I tried it.



So jusging by what EC is saying you guys may fair better . It will just depend on which way it wraps in . Hopefully not from the Black range rain shadow for yourselves sake.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/05/2012 22:42

GFS for this time next week......
Posted by: Things

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/05/2012 15:30

Whats the purple line at the bottom? Super cold air?
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/05/2012 18:44

I believe thats snow at surface level.
Posted by: Scooteroo

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/05/2012 20:39

Interesting to note that the GFS ensemble models are showing a lot of uncertainty from the ensemble spread from Tuesday to Friday next week. The EC ensembles seems to indicate that their model is relatively stable over that period. Both dont show super cold weather at this stage.

Personally, I like the look of the Access G model for next Thursday showing cold air moving almost to the SA/NSW/QLD border! I think either way, there will be weather of note in that period.
Posted by: DVC

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/05/2012 17:47

some good showers here today @ kew a nice surprise, dvc
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/05/2012 20:47

I'm starting to get a bit "Big Ted" (RIP) over the prospects for next weekend! smile SE'ly rain driven into Gippsland if this GFS scenario came out to play.....


Time to start a thread fellow Victorians........
Posted by: Twister1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/05/2012 10:08

Great news is that another Big cutoff low, involution shall occur mid and late next week with strong high ridging under Tassie and cold air cut off over SE Aus.
Another big slow moving cut off is looking to form all 4 main models have it AC, EC, GFS, UK/JMA which is great news and it should happen.

Good news is that low looks to form over N SA so all of Vic even NW Vic will be on the up slide side of things so everyone will get rain and this band will be tilted as the new low forms over S SA and into the bight before moving away next weekend as the high moves out.

Could be wet from Thursday night right through to Sunday morning for much of the state so Great and welcome news.

If This was Nov DEc be looking at 50-150mm and Loads of Thunderstorms but with dps a lot lower, much of moisture will be mid level and recycled but still another 30-50mm event looking great with few spots in hills and out east in wrap around if occurs looking good for 100mm.

So another long week of model watching and hoping that ALL Grain areas get 20-30mm so can start sowing and then a NWCB in a few weeks to water it and everyone in well.

Well great news re rain this week heres to another big week of rain
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/05/2012 10:39

So twister thunderstorm chances will be a bit like this recent event?
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/05/2012 10:18

I like the look of this system for some rainfall for west and northern vic farmers. Not sure if at the tail end of it or grand finnally will the southern & east coast be wanting any more, it maybe getting a little wet under foot?
Anyway another 10mm+ after a sunny week would be a huge boost to graziers and croppers, to carry them through. Particularly if a dry winter is being predicted.
Posted by: Bulos

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/05/2012 15:10

Access and GFS 00z becoming bullish on the above. Should EC confirm same then we should all disregard the drier and warmer winter and enjoy cooler, damper conditions.

I note with interest that the Bureau are struggling to populate below average temps and above average rainfall observations since Friday. wink http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW3050.latest.shtml
Posted by: Bulos

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/05/2012 16:20

Originally Posted By: Bulos
I note with interest that the Bureau are struggling to populate below average temps and above average rainfall observations since Friday. wink http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW3050.latest.shtml


Which have now been populated. wink Wettest May for some 12 years (bout time!)
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/05/2012 16:58

GFS has some massive rain in Gippsland next Monday into Tuesday.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/05/2012 17:54

ACCESSG has the rain in the same place for 2 days pretty much, could be some massive falls.
Posted by: Bulos

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/05/2012 18:16

EC has thumbed its nose at the whole scenario, which doesn't surprise me.
AccessG nailed the last event pretty well, so I am tending to follow that at this stage.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/05/2012 18:27

GFS caught onto the event before ACCESS though.
Posted by: Bulos

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/05/2012 19:40

True Ant!
Both forecasted well, but GFS overcooked the top end precipitation.
ACCESS had it diving SSE pretty quickly on Saturday which it did. GFS had it being cradled and linger until Sunday morning.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/05/2012 07:19

Bad news for anyone in desperate need of rain..latest GFS run is pretty much just a cold pool that goes near to touching Victoria...
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/05/2012 08:45

Yep, spoke too soon, models have all ran away out the back door.
Posted by: Scooteroo

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/05/2012 21:40

Not much on the horizon according to the models unfortunately. At least I may be able to look forward to some frosty mornings and clear skies while doing the Overland Track next week smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/06/2012 20:26

We've got some stories to tell you when you get back Scooter!! smile

,,, and I bet you've also had it all down there, snow, wind, rain and even the odd sunny break for photos on your hike!

Next weather for us seems to be strong northerlies into Vic circa next Thursday??
Posted by: Scooteroo

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/06/2012 14:18

Looks like I missed a major rain event for Victoria. I have been living caveman style for the last week so I dont know the reports yet, but hopefully nothing too bad has happened to people. It is amazing what a difference a few hundred k's makes. I had no significant weather (apart from 5 days of sunshine...) in the Tasmanian wilderness last week, no heavy rain/snow or strong winds for the 9 days I was on the Overland Track.

Looks like the next thread has started, cant wait to see what the next system brings.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/06/2012 16:55

A hint of some rain for North of the divide (well North of the Hume Freeway) next Friday 22nd June on GFS. May help settle the dust? Fingers crossed that it isn't just a one of run. If the weather is going to be freezing and crappy it may as well rain too.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/06/2012 13:50

Thursday onwards, looks like some decent rainfall for the North East with a cold front heading this way. Would expect to see some welcomed snow for the snow fields too.
Must be time for a new thread?
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/06/2012 20:08

Interesting to see the word 'storm' included in the Friday forecast, GFS been hinting at it for a couple of days.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/07/2012 14:45

Maybe something to watch next week. We have had enough rain in pits and pats over the last few weeks, and the ground is fairly wet. But I am not sure if the further North in Vic we go if they have had much. I would expect that those along the mighty river(NSW border) will be looking for a bit more. Give us something to amuse ourselves with as we lead up to it.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/07/2012 14:53

From BSCH today 3/07/12
I know that Petros keeps us informed with the southern events so I thought I would post these for the inlanders.
This has me intersted as 100mm dot right on top of my place. Yikes!
I am sure it will calm down a bit by next week.


Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/07/2012 04:19

Let's hope those totals are exaggerated TU. We haven't had a lot of rain here, but the ground is very damp with no warmth in the sun or wind to help dry it out.
Posted by: Bulos

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/07/2012 08:00

EC is very keen for a wet week for Northern Victoria in particular with widespread 50mm falls projected. About a fifth of that amount for Melbourne as the rainshadow is being factored in.

The Bureau was on the news last night and stated that they expect average rainfall for the next 3-4 months. Yet this morning, Weatherzone post an article about a return of El Nino and a drier winter and spring.

I going to ask Paul the Octopus, famous for picking World Cup Football results, for his decision. Will be more accurate, unbiased and cost less.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/07/2012 20:17

Thanks for the heads up ThunderUnder!

Very interesting and potentially wet period after the large typical winter high leaves us next Tuesday. Heres GFS's latest for next Tuesday...


Timing a shame as my family will be visiting at Inverloch next week frown

Potentially MORE interesting is the follow up event lurking out SW of WA in the above prognosis. This one may arrive with a NW cloud to wrap around ahead of it 3 days later. Some areas of Vic could be swimming. It seems a monty that at the least, the W side of Vic looks to get handy crop enhancing rains over the next 10 days.

TU - I reckon its time to start a new thread smile
Posted by: duckweather

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/07/2012 22:13

Thought you guys might be interested in a vid I uploaded to Youtube tonight regarding the super cloud structure which went across the outer eastern suburbs this arvo. See what you think.

Posted by: duckweather

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/07/2012 22:38

Sorry, meant to post the above vid in the other Vic thread blush
Posted by: Bulos

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/07/2012 07:43

This mornings ACCESS run validates the GFS chart that Petros has posted. EC waters down the high end precipitation totals, especially in the NE of the state, whilst 12z GFS ups the ante further.

A few more days of model shoe-shuffle required.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/07/2012 18:29

Too all the experienced snow bunnies. I am thinking of taking my children up to Buller next week for a day. My sister and her family will be up there for the week. For the more normal people, we would pick a sunny day to play up there. But for the storm freek like myself who has never seen it snow, a notch I would like to tick off in my must do one day book, is there a day that I could pick where a bit of Ok weather to muck around in and then snow to fall before we leave. I know it is early to predict what the weather is going to do and I am thinking that Tuessday I might get a bit of both depending on when the next front/trough is due to arrive. Anyone out there that might be able to have an idea when the next cold front should arrive at Buller.
Posted by: Twister1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/07/2012 22:37

Yeah best chance for the Mallee this one shocking dry up that way like 10mm last 4 months crazy dry.

Rest of State doing ok, on and south of mounts are going great.
E Melb and W and S Gippy soaked and going to get lots more when they dont need it.

Almost a Classic spring/summer type system, if this first low trough occurred in Nov DEc there would be HUGE HUGE rain and storms with 100-200mm but its Very dry in low levels till late week lots of moisture will come from mid and upper levels.
Stalling cold pool with tilting trough with great upper support.

Still for winter this will be a great system, well number of systems as the Short waves move through the slow almost stalled LWT over Aus

Lots more rain for you all, but hopefully most can fall in farming areas that have yet to have a lot City and gippy have had enough for now will easy flood out there atm.

Keep the re ports coming in guys
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/07/2012 23:18

Thunderunder
This is a link to help you decide
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/vic/north-east/mount-buller

There is some 16 to 35 mm of precipitaion forecast between next monday to wednesday at this stage
Now whether that will be snow.is debateable with temps hovering just on freezing at the surface.
The temps look borderline..Night time better chance at this stage
Definitely you will need to take chains for your tyres. Be prepared to use them!! Practice at home or down the mountain
A spade to dig out if necessary
Read everything you can re your car overnight in freezing conditions..Wipers can freeze to windscreen..
Anti freeze.. Tape up lockon door. They can freeze over..
Extra clothing .. shoes to walk in snow
3 layers of everything from sox to what ever
Once the change arrives on Monday arvo?/tuesday l don't think you will see the sun..

It is $35 to get into Nat park. Then $9 per day
Could be blizzardy on and around tuesday with higher winds
My advice is , it is worthwhile to spend a few hundred dollars to stay overnight on the mountain...
If you choose to travel up in inclement snow weather be over prepared..

Posted by: S .O.

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/07/2012 23:25

TU ,

not Sure you'll get your wish of both in one day .

if i was you i'd sight see and enjoy the best weather on the Monday . less wind and more sunshine than tuesday .
remember your going to SEE it .... if the clouds come in , and quite potnetially the first precipitation ( highly dependant on local conditions ) but usually an event that starts in the afternoon up that way will start as rain ..... The odd exception is a clear night followed by cloud cover extending in on dawn , which locks the cool in so to speak and more important takes the sting out of the days sun .

maybe wait till friday ( too early to tell for sure , with a model divergence ) but if you want to see snow , and half okay conditions then this day might be it .

Goodluck .
Posted by: Things

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/07/2012 23:36

Last year I went up to Falls Ck and was just pelted by tiny hail-like particles all day! It was dreadful, basically 0 visibility and painful!

Would love to go up there on a nice sunny day.
Posted by: S .O.

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/07/2012 00:54

yep things ,

In strong winds , snow /sago / hail can feel like being sand blasted . And more than likely in Aust , some of that would be the manmade snow getting blown about .

Defintely the best systems is when it pukes down large flakes in low winds and high cloud cover ..... its a sight to behold , and almost surreal .

But in saying that , clear blue still days , are just oarsome just for some of the Great Vista's that can be seen especially form Buller and Baw Baw , and you could probably add Buffalo to that .

But then I'm just showing my age there , as its been a long time ( close to 20 yrs ) since there's been exceptional conditions up there ...

Buller was good last Wednesday . It had a full 12-14 hr of man made guns the previous night , and a slight breeze that kept Ice to a Minimum ....
Posted by: ...TOMMY...

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/07/2012 11:54

I know this is about 10/11 days away but if this scenario holds it will mean sea level snow in southern Vic and Melbourne!

The purple line (sea level snow line) is sitting just to the S/E of Melbourne.. Temps on the 850hpa map show temps of -6C to -8C over Melbourne!!!

Something for us to keep an eye on.

http://img651.imageshack.us/img651/504/wowkg.png
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/07/2012 12:49

Thanks everyone re Buller next week, you know how it is on the American movies, soft snow flakes falling. And as you can tell over the years I am not a snow bunny. More into the summer water sports, although we can all ski on the water. Kids are on singles. Would love to see how they go with two skis back on there feet in the snow. The camera will be out. Thinking it may be better to go when the weather is not snowing. Hubby has no intentions of going up there in snow conditions. Worked on a job up there for a month going back twenty years ago and said it is misserbale, windy and horrid when the snow (blizzards) come. And told me I am on my own with this one. Been a long time since I have driven up that mountain by myself, and I have done it many times before the snow chains etc, but I was much younger with less responsibilities, no children in the car etc (not that I am long in the tooth - yet). Anyway I will keep trying to talk him in to taking a day off so I have a driver.

Now back to the coming weather. Models are still on track, good news for the croppers North from here including across the border and into NSW, although for some it may be too late, talk around the traps is that a lot of crops are buggered. Models are all differing slightly to which part of the state will get the main download. But all seem to be hinting it will be North of the Divide.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/07/2012 13:24

Crikey thanks for all your information. Much appreciated!
Posted by: Things

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/07/2012 14:12

LOL GFS dreamin again ... Although I'd looovee to be proven wrong grin

But forecast -3C tonight and -4C tomorrow night, probably cold enough for me.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/07/2012 22:18

Originally Posted By: Petros
Thanks for the heads up ThunderUnder!

...Potentially MORE interesting is the follow up event lurking out SW of WA in the above prognosis. This one may arrive with a NW cloud to wrap around ahead of it 3 days later.


The latest run shows the follow up system to be pushed over the N of Alice by the next high to arrive into NSW from the NW rather than simply adject over to Vic from S WA. Whatever avenue. Theres more rain about for Vic/NSW over the next 10 days!
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/07/2012 00:07

I can handle the rain, but I hate the cold and of course the phone doesnt exactly ring off the hook when the weeks are wet. The last two years have been tough. Its sounds ironic, but for the farm we love the rain, but for the business bring back the drought. Unfortunately for us, the farm doesnt pay the bills.
Posted by: S .O.

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/07/2012 00:42

TU , what do you and hubby do for a living that requires Drought to Flourish . Water tanks and Irrigation ????
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/07/2012 14:00

Similar SO rural plumbing, specialise in water supply and set ups for farmers. In other words pumps, windmills, septics, stock trough, solar pumps, tank set ups the list goes on. Keeping water up to stock. Summer is our peak season and the last two were very quiet.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/07/2012 14:41

Umm yeh I don't really mean bring back the drought another year was going to be catastrophic, bores were dropping or drying out, water was scarce, creek had dried up etc and we were getting a really good glimpse of how little water was around for stock, native animals & plants and humans.
Posted by: DVC

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/07/2012 23:51

There is something about to happen here in melb I think wind has come up then checking out the radar some yellow orange heading for us ...
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/07/2012 22:20

Not much out there atm. A persistent high for Vic and an ECL to whip up some strong SSE'lies for NSW central coast in a few days time is all I can see.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/07/2012 20:10

Looks like sunshine for a week and then maybe some more rain perhaps thursday/friday.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/07/2012 19:19

Yest the Thur/Fri rain looked promising with a decent low pressure system over Vic. Today it looks like a winter cool change to bring showers and up to four cold days for us. Good for the snow skiers though.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/07/2012 21:21

howdy folks, heading back to down melbourne for a few days from august 8th, just getting into the forecast period now, but wondering if it should be ok to take the kids up to lake mountain for some snow play. currently just man made up there atm, hoping for some lower level dumps of snow in the next fortnight.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/07/2012 18:54

Mick Looks like a series of cold front to cross the state from Wednesday onwards bring showers and maybe even a storm on Wednesday. Should be some cold temps to go with it so I am presuming there will be chances for snow in the Alps perhaps on the weekend????. There are much better weather forecasters around then me though.
Posted by: Things

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/07/2012 18:58

My brother is coming down to stay for a while on Sat, so some extra cold weather to make him realize what he was missing out on would be nice grin
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/07/2012 21:36

Looks like we (Vic) will be under the cold air "blue-line" Wednesday night into Thursday and again next weekend. Not much rain progged before Friday, but the weekend could deliver renewed dampness down at the sodden Bass Coast area here.

For me, its the prospect of storms! Noticed a few skinny looking turkey necks trying to rise around Maffra yesterday and the seasons starting to turn. Maybe I'll hear a rumble down at Inverloch before the weeks end?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/07/2012 23:26

Re the weekend delivering... CMC is giving us a bit more wetness for the weekend than predicted yesterday...



Time for a thread on this?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/07/2012 21:38

Look out for the weekend after this.... more snow and rain for S Vic...
Posted by: ...TOMMY...

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/07/2012 21:25

Looking like some warmth around the 8th - 9th or August! Still along way out but if it eventuates we could see our first 20C in the northwest of the state and maybe even 20C in the CBD micro climate, LOL.

Something too keep an eye on if you want some warmth wink
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/07/2012 17:51

According to ACCESS unlikely to happen Tommy, cold front on Monday-Tuesday, break on Wednesday, another one on Thursday.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/08/2012 21:40

Ignoring tomorrows change to cross Vic this weekend... does anyone else!! think (like me) that a cut-off low is likely to form on the change following 8th Aug on? The ingredients are all there methinks.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/08/2012 21:45

Ignoring tomorrows change to cross Vic this weekend... does anyone else!! think (like me) that a cut-off low is likely to form on the change following 8th Aug on? The ingredients are all there methinks.
Posted by: Things

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/08/2012 22:09

Damn it, wanted to head up to Falls Ck this weekend, but no chance if it's gonna be pelting little hail like chunks of pain! frown
Posted by: Bulos

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/08/2012 10:02

EC and GFS are the only two models I have checked this morning and they are keen as mustard on widespread heavy falls from Wednesday. An injection of above average temps early next week will provide the perfect ingredient to get things humming.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/08/2012 15:03

i arrive in melbourne for a few days from wednesday night, aswell as an Essendon victory, i hope to see some decent weather down there please Victorians! (as in, hail, snow, rain, thunder)
lake mountain has a litle bit of snow, about 30cm more for some snow play would be nice while im putting in the requests!!
Posted by: duckweather

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/08/2012 17:02

Just got pummelled by hail and gale force winds. Looked like a mini cyclone crazy
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/08/2012 17:56

Helpful hint Duck- don't use that term on here poke
Posted by: duckweather

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/08/2012 08:02

Cheers Ant wink

Ok...what I meant to say was that the winds were incredibly gusty - bit like a washing machine - trees getting whipped - rain horizontal/sideways and every other way - hail belting down.
Posted by: boomer

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/08/2012 23:22

Yep... no such thing as a mini cyclone... trust me on that one (though of course having been through several it is indisputable that some have lesser consequences)
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/08/2012 19:45

Next wet weather for Vic seems to be looming for late this week. A low pressure system in the Bight that (at this stage) looks to goods to arrive by Thursday, but retrogrades W Thursday, to arrive Friday.

EC's take .........

Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/08/2012 22:38

Yikes interesting run tonight. This would make things a bit damp.. Maybe Fergus does know something? We will have to waite and see what happens at the end of the week.




Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/08/2012 23:04

why thursday/friday? I umpire AFL and it is a constant battle to get the mud out of my uniform and the smell out of my runners!
hope it provides a spark or two!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/08/2012 19:58

After a bit of light patchy rain to affect Vic overnight tonight, a day of mild temps in a strengthening NW'er should precede a snotty SW'ly cold front to make things a bit unpleasant along the SW coast (and here) - also somemore late evening snow for the resorts.

Inverloch looks set to gain up to 15-20mm with this, the wetness here just will not abate.

This is the wettest of the current scenarios for overnight Thursday...
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/08/2012 20:15

Once again CMC going the most heavy handed, doubt one part might get 15-20mm but it won't be as big an area, possibility of some cold air thunderstorms after last weeks perhaps tommorow afternoon and Thursday, might need a thread.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/08/2012 20:16

..... "a day of mild temps in a strengthening NW'er should precede a snotty SW'ly cold front" ......... or maybe 6 hours of milder weather? oops

Agree with your thunder chances thread idea Ant, go for it!
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/09/2012 21:54

Looking to get a bit windy for some come tomorrow through to Wednesday. I am a bit confused on the rain situation. GFS and CMC have a bit forecast along the north of the rangers. Otherwise a glorious spring day today. I do love this warmer weather.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/09/2012 22:20

Glorious day down here too TU.

I'm very interested to see how mild it will remain overnight Tuesday? - Will it drop below the mid teens?

... and with our sodden roadsides, how many trees will fall over the roads down this way Wednesday night?
Posted by: duckweather

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/09/2012 17:27

If the bureau's forcast is anything to go by, it's time to batten down the hatches and bring 'Toto' inside crazy
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/09/2012 17:37

Certainly some damaging winds coming Duck.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/09/2012 18:52

Looks like the heat from NT is pumping down to SA and SE Australia strong with North Wind...

As sign that the heat is starting get warmer to hot along Northren Australia and too early to tell if we will have dry or wet summer depends on the High Pressure system angle is N/NE or N/NW direction.
Posted by: Cargill

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/09/2012 20:54

The BOM charts are showing the intense low in the Bight at 974 mb ... that's lower than the lowest pressure Hurricane Isaac experienced last week.

I appreciate that a storm in higher latitudes has nothing like the heat energy of a tropical cyclone ... but still, 974 is impressive. Might get a bit breezy here in Melbourne over the next 12-24 hours.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/09/2012 18:38

A trough next week looks like it will bring storms.
Posted by: boomer

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/09/2012 23:47

Starting to get close to the Vic Rogaine champs at the Strathbogies on the weekend of the 20th.
Thoughts weather wise you Vic dudes?
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/09/2012 01:11

event planned???? Rain hahah isn't that how it works? hopefully dry for you by then grin
Posted by: Karl Lijnders

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/09/2012 22:22

Looking like a trough and low forming over the state delivering showers and the chance of thunderstorms with areas of rain about the dividing range. Could be some good falls in it if it decides to really come together. Certainly a few days out but models should be watched closely.

Latest GFS showing a good deal of instability but unsure how to prog the rainfall.
Posted by: Lindsay Knowles

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/09/2012 07:12

Yeah not getting excited yet on this one Karl. I will have a better look at it on Sunday before I get my hopes up. Late Tuesday into Wednesday may produce a storm if the conditions are right.
Posted by: Karl Lijnders

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/09/2012 11:08

It is trickY Loo. I think we will start to see models firm on an outcome over the weekend. At this stage, I would still place bets that we will have that middle level disturbance destablise things on Sunday (you can see it off WA or over the Goldfields rather moving slowly east.)

Need to watch the inland of QLD and NSW as well this weekend to find where the trough is for our fun next week. If we can sneak through the front without it taking the east coast trough with it on Sunday then it is on!!

I am quietly confident of a large scale event for Eastern Australia next week.
Posted by: Karl Lijnders

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/09/2012 16:49

Latest TWC showing interesting progs. It basically wants to destroy western Victoria with a low pressure system later in the week.

Most other progs are messy and unsettled with now real solid feature for organisation.

The waiting continues.
Posted by: boomer

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/09/2012 23:03

Right now you are not helping... what's happening on the weekend of the 22nd?
Before you complain, we work well out over a week during our season.
Are you inferior to northern predicts?
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/09/2012 10:10

Hi Boomer the 20th is thursday, so I presume you are talking the 22nd & 23rd. Anywat I have have a quick look at some models and access is hinting at some rain to come through the state thurssday, Friday is looking fairly wet but looks to be more on the Southern side of the rainges. Saturday is not looking so good for you guys up in the bogies (maybe 10-15), but it is early days and I have no doubt things will change by the end of the week. Then by Sunday it looks to clear. Take in mind that is only one model and GFS is showing a bit of rain thursday and then after that looks to be clear. nd I am no expert just a learner. Models aren't backing each other at this stage, so still need a few days closer to look at the runs.
PS My origins is Warrenbayne, so Boho and Strathbogie and the hills is where my heart lies. A great place to have your championships, keep a look out for legendary Puma that some believe is a myth and other farmers say is real.
Posted by: Karl Lijnders

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/09/2012 17:32

Looking not great for the week leading up with widespread rain and potential for 50-100mm over the NE ranges this week with showers and storms. If a low forms it could be a lot more.

Will have to wait and see as it is still far too messy.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/09/2012 18:37

See models have changed since this morning. Boomer I suggest you follow Karl's lead, he actually knows what he is talking about. Unlike myself lol.
Posted by: Karl Lijnders

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/09/2012 19:00

I pretend to know....lol!!

Models will wobble and wobble and wobble. I think it is looking more favorable for heavier rain over the north and northeast of the state this week with convective weather to start the week smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/09/2012 20:41

Hopefully we will see a storm about on Tuesday.
Posted by: Anthony Violi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/09/2012 21:45

Wouldn't worry bout this week, this is just the beginning.

http://anthonyvioli.wordpress.com/2012/09/16/the-party-is-over-the-action-now-starts/

I can see all sorts of mayhem from about 2 weeks time onwards, in fact it could even break the records i called for 18 months ago if it comes off.
Posted by: Anthony Violi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/09/2012 19:36

Further to yesterdays post, things are moving rapidly North of Australia.

http://anthonyvioli.wordpress.com/2012/09/17/here-comes-the-shift/
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/09/2012 22:09

Anthony I find your blogs interesting and I will be interested to see if they come to fruition or not. Personally I hope you are wrong, I much prefer a normal spring and a nice long warm summer with a good thunderstorm ot two. Really over the cool wet summers, mozzies, fly blown sheep etc etc.
Posted by: boomer

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/09/2012 21:04

Sorry about my earlier tetchiness. Re the weekend, specifically north of Melb it seems an associated cold front, prefrontal trough and weak high pressure ridge will be present. This according to the models appears to coalesce in the early hours of Sunday. I am hopeful the mid to uppers will push the majority south but as this is not my territory I am entirely unsure.
Thoughts more than welcome... reason being I and about 350 others will be out in the middle of the bush right throughout the night and need to plan a strategy if it looks like it is going to turn particularly bad... cyclonic rain no problem, but coping with the cold (or that awful white stuff that falls from the sky) is not my forte LOL
Posted by: Anthony Violi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/09/2012 21:29

Thanks Fergus.....well if you don't like rain you won't be happy because its now warming North of Java quickly. And the trades are still Easterly off the Qld coast so there can be no escaping, it will be a big summer with a strong build up in NT.

Last year as a comparison everything was running way behind schedule, which resulted in an ordinary build up and latest monsoon for years. This years its on the move, keep watching SSTs in the indian to Indonesia, its changing rapidly, 4 weeks earlier than last year. The dry spell through the interior will soon be forgotten as the response will be big.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/09/2012 21:33

Interesting reading AV, will be watching it all play out on the water vapour charts late next week if your forecast comes to fruition.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/09/2012 20:58

1st of October is looking promising for the North of the divide, by Access G. A long way out, but considering the first month of spring we haven't managed 5ml yet it would be nice to give the crops a drink, because they will be looking for some rain by then. Anyway fingers crossed, not looking for floods or wet wet wet, but a nice spring drop would be dandy.
On another note, we have had warm northerly here and spent today in a T shirt, I love this warmer weather. For those of you that have managed to have the odd spark - You lucky buggers. I'm needing my fix of a good old thunder storm, can't waite until the summer.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/09/2012 21:21

Please any day other than Grand Final day. Do not want any storms, go away and stay away! lol
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/09/2012 08:38

I too will be following AV's predictions and analysis of what is possibly to come this summer with great interest.
On our travels north in Australia this year it was a lot colder than previous years. Most times when we head north in July, when we reach the Tropic of Capricorn, on go the shorts, etc and off come the blankets and doona from the bed. Not this year! Tracksuits and blankets were not disposed of till Cairns and further north. The doona never left the bed.
We are back now, three weeks later than normal and it's mid September and snow falls are still being predicted and the mornings and evenings are still cold. If this is El Nino weather I'll "eat my hat". So what's going on with our weather?. Another summer like last year would be very disappointing.
Posted by: Anthony Violi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/09/2012 10:38

Gabby another summer like last year cannot be ruled at this stage.

Temps are much warmer in the Northern half this year due to the dry air persisting for a big portion of the last 6 months through the interior.

The patterns are now on the move, and moisture is being drawn in, the oceans are warming on both sides. Where we go in the next 6 weeks determines where we go for the summer, if the westerlies relax and the highs dive south as I expect, then we will see a repeat of the last two years.

At the moment it's struggling to do that, hence why all the hot air is trapped inland. Will be doing monthly updates so keep an eye on that.
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/09/2012 11:20

You have given me some hope Anthony. I will definitely be keeping an eye on this thread and your links.
Posted by: Anthony Violi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/09/2012 18:07

I suggest everyone check out the latest satellite photo and see whats happening..
Posted by: ColdsnapIII

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/09/2012 19:18

Models showing extensive moisture over the continent this week. Nothing too major but sufficient for some good falls over a wide section of the continent. VIC should be included in that. Thursday and Friday now looking good for some decent rainfall especially on and north of the ranges. The moisture for this event is coming from the inland with origins in the NW tropics, so the +ve IOD situation is definitely easing and on the way out. El Nino has more or less had it out in the Pacific (before it could even begin really) so, as Anthony has noted, expect moisture to start coming in to the continent from both sides in the coming weeks.

Classic spring week ahead with a very warm Thursday followed by rain and storms and then a significant cold outbreak on Grand Final day. Also a bit of wind around.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/09/2012 19:20

Wait so is it going to be an El Nino this Summer and Autumn?
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/09/2012 20:25

Isn't the MJO in s/east ASIA . Above nth Australia atm.?
Although according to current report it is not classed as active atm?
Isn't the MJO a potential moisture source ?
What will happen when the MJO moves along eastward . Will the moisture still be there for OZ?
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
I think it does rain at times even in an El Nino? I have never seen a rainfall map for a neutral ENSO scenario .
Is there something available


Here is the current forecast re rainfall from this incoming trough/low pressure area

The East of the state of VIC again.!. The west need it more crazy
Hope that changes a bit to favor the west




Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/09/2012 21:36

After the warm/cold sequences over the past 10 days, the outlook remains cool for at least the S half of Vic. A low pressure system, cutoff in the bight might be the next rainy chance for Vic next weekend, but by no means a model consensus.
Posted by: boomer

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/10/2012 21:00

Originally Posted By: crikey
Isn't the MJO in s/east ASIA . Above nth Australia atm.?
Although according to current report it is not classed as active atm?
Isn't the MJO a potential moisture source ?
What will happen when the MJO moves along eastward . Will the moisture still be there for OZ?
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/
I think it does rain at times even in an El Nino? I have never seen a rainfall map for a neutral ENSO scenario .
Is there something available


Here is the current forecast re rainfall from this incoming trough/low pressure area

The East of the state of VIC again.!. The west need it more crazy
Hope that changes a bit to favor the west




MJO is beginning to have an effect and will have more of one over the next week as it enters the Eastern Pacific... right now it is estimated that effect will be considerable but not enough to cause major precipitation (see patches of vorticity on Cimss)... as it returns it most certainly will... it is highly linked to both monsoonal and cyclonic activity. The Indian Dipole is another factor which is riding high right now (see lows over the NW of the Maritime Continent)... that however is set to ease as we head for a neutral environment.
As to the season (QLD wise) neutral is predicted... but that does not mean there will not be the equivalent amount of cyclones and therefore associated troughs that may sweep south... all of the above does not preclude an intense Monsoonal Trough which if occurs will have the greatest impact of all.
Posted by: boomer

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/10/2012 21:35

Sorry... western pacific... MJO travels in an anti-clockwise direction.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/10/2012 23:19

Originally Posted By: Petros
After the warm/cold sequences over the past 10 days, the outlook remains cool for at least the S half of Vic. A low pressure system, cutoff in the bight might be the next rainy chance for Vic next weekend, but by no means a model consensus.


Forecast today is for 25 C Wed and 28 C Thursday. Another dodgy Petros appraisal. Still not much rain/storm obvious to me out there in next 7 days (would be very glad to be wrong about that).
Posted by: Anthony Violi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/10/2012 18:53

I think you might find this interesting Petros, i posted about this possibility on Saturday and now its coming all nicely.

http://www.therealworldweatherforum.com/looking-towards-future-events-t13.html

It will also temporarily halt the summer pattern trying to get going.

Some low level snow likely again.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/10/2012 21:36

Had a look at the models and then at the wave map on the BOM. Yes I will admit have spoken too soon. Looks like the dry stint may be over, if I think what is about to head this way midweek onwards with maybe a low parking itself on our doorsteps. The ground around here can still take a fair bit more so all will be good. Would love a run down or opinion from others if they think it is going to be only a few mm stint or a big drop. Have organised contractors to cut some hay this week, but starting to think it should be held off for a few more days if it is going to be more then a few mm.
Would love a run down and maybe some guestimates.
Posted by: Anthony Violi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/10/2012 11:27

Yes the plan is starting to take shape. Lots of residual moisture being recycled over the country, and as i mentioned 10 days ago a massive event is going to occur, not so much for the rainfall, but for the cold outbreak.
Posted by: ...TOMMY...

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/10/2012 16:31

Lol on the bom 4 day MSLP map for wed 10pm shows a monsoon trough on that low in the Tasman sea shocked
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/10/2012 19:26

Wow, I just checked out my hometwown (Geelong)temps of for the last few days, 29deg one day, barely 12 deg a couple of days later,hopefully they get a better run of decent weather.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/10/2012 20:56

Good looking site AV.

I'm dead keen/alert for the event mid/late next week. there could be some decent rainfall at several Vic locations as the models sort themselves out. Snow again would you believe!
Heres GFS......


Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/10/2012 21:04

Bloody daylight savings... BSCH hasn't updated yet.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/10/2012 20:40

The storms around Melbourne this morning must have been a nice surprise to those under one! Nothing down Wonthaggi way.

Shopping around for something of note in the outlook, not much there in next 7days but CMC moots this later in the week:


Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/10/2012 22:53

Actually Petros it wasn't that suprising but the models certainly got it wrong. Certainly an event looming at the end of the week.
Posted by: Anthony Violi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/10/2012 23:17

On the contrary, first surprise will be tomorrow night, followed by a big system on Wed/Thursday.

I posted two days ago on my forum that the models were not quite seeing the whole picture, and they still arent quite there yet. This morning was no surprise as the pattern is too mobile.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/10/2012 23:20

What do you mean Anthony about tommorow night?
Posted by: Anthony Violi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/10/2012 10:05

I think a band of rain will form, though it may occur past Melbourne again.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/10/2012 11:59

Still the conditions look too stable to be able to create any storms.
Posted by: Anthony Violi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/10/2012 14:39

Maybe right, however storms are kicking off near Adelaide now, front still well south.

Yet again the trajectory means we could see a band of rain form just past melbourne again just like Tuesdays system.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/10/2012 19:28

Looks like you may be right...
Posted by: Anthony Violi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/10/2012 19:56

Yes i did forecast it and the BOM didnt mention it because the models are just NQR at the moment.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/10/2012 20:20

What's causing it? Is it just the trough or is it a jet-stream or something?
Posted by: Anthony Violi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/10/2012 21:21

Colder mid levels since late 2009, plus the positioning of the patterns. Climate has shifted and models haven't picked up on it.

I have lots of theories which I will reveal in time on my website.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/10/2012 20:24

48 hrs after my previous post, CMC is still keen (ramping up actually) on a decent front to affect S Cent Vic Wed night/Thursday.......



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/10/2012 20:47

ACCESS G interactive seems to agree with CMC atm for the rain mainly in southern parts on wednesday/thurs .Petros.
However..
I have noticed that AccessG has decided to initiate that low further west when l looked tonight, Whereas a few days ago it had the surface low forming off the s/east coast of vic.

So that's promising that the west of vic MAY get some rainfall.
All though l believe the best scenario is the low initiating in eastern SA. sigh..
Reading the rural 'weekly times' and it seems Gippsland is still super soggy. and yet western and especially the N/west is drought like. Quite a contrast between the two halves of the state.
By the way. THe forecast on weather news said for snow on the VIC mountains l believe tomorrow?
Buller minus 3 deg c at some point?

We still haven't hit 30 deg c here yet.
Only one day at 26 deg C here this spring. We just keep getting heaps of southerly airstreams.. Quite mild really

source:
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/10/2012 20:56

I can vouch for the soggines of W Gippsland Crikey (Leongatha/Inverloch to Grantville Koowerup). And it continues as I type.

Maffra area has had less rain, but ample. The area looks pristine.
Posted by: duckweather

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/10/2012 22:43

We've got hail here atm...didn't expect that...
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/10/2012 16:39

Seeing the models ACCESSG do have a low slipping down as crikey mentioned followed by a cold pool, probably around 10-15mm in parts of Victoria later this week. GFS has the same sort of thing, if the low moves up there'll be some very decent rainfalls in southern Victoria.
Posted by: Anthony Violi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/10/2012 18:42

My seasonal outlook is now active.

http://avweatherforecasts.wordpress.com/...-february-2013/
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/10/2012 21:57

Models have cut rainfall totals to S Vic during Wed/Thurs change markedly. Looks like no area will exceed 10mm between now and Friday by this arvos model run. The weekend looks very cold still (also without significantly heavy rain at this stage).
Posted by: Anthony Violi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/10/2012 22:04

I think we will see it come back Petros, or upgrade Friday.... Either way we will get 10-20mm out of his sequence by Saturday.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/10/2012 22:16

Most of it looks like it's coming from the cold pool though. Interesting post btw Anthony, but what's a La Nada?
Posted by: Anthony Violi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/10/2012 22:53

It's the term they use for neutral..because a neutral pattern has a La Nia pattern without the very cold water of a LaNina.. So it's a La Nada..
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/10/2012 19:12

Thanks Anthony, any chance maybe of a storm in the southwest tommorow? Maybe time to start a thread?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/10/2012 21:07

I see the BOM are LaNdaering too. They might be copying your blog AV. The SST's bom are posting dont show as much cold water heading our way from the Pacific near S America as your site shows, but still mooting a not so dry summer as they naturally would love to predict.

The cold weather on the weekend (dammit) then maybe a week following thats warm enough to attract a storm is all of interest I can see "out there" atm.
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/10/2012 21:43

Tonights weather forecast by Livinia WIN news for tomorrow said storms in the S/west a possibility.
She indicated no rain for the north. The synoptic structure of the surface low is still evident on ACCESS G but apparently insufficient moisture. The best moisture profile around 5am Thursday morning.
(select relative humidity tab)
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/

There is a small wrap around evident on the national loop atm evident just south of albany s/west WA. I wondered if that will be our low tomorrow night.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national_radar_sat.loop.shtml

BOM ..WATL rain forecast has dropped the best of the rain further south to west Tassie.

Some might enjoy some high based storms maybe. Depends where the surface low tracks l expect.

A surface low in the south west of the state.. Surely something will emerge.
--------------
spotted an upper low forecast for next Sunday over Victoria.
ACCESS G shows no to little rain with this feature but it is still 5 days away.. There is also some rain in NSW around about that time from a sub tropical low . So maybe we could catch a bit of that from the upper low wrapping. ??

Some nice synoptic features but whether any of VIC will benefit at this stage looks unlikely. Thought it would be good to keep an eye on anyway

Posted by: duckweather

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/10/2012 09:54

Rather a 'funny'/eerie day here..smokey looking sunrise (we did have a tip fire nearby the other day), hazy/smokey, sunny, pleasant temperature..but feels like we may see an interesting change in the weather soon..
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/10/2012 15:27

Can anyone point me in the direction of a model for next wednesday?
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/10/2012 15:32

Too far out dawood, until the models start to agree on something not much point talking about it smile
Posted by: Anthony Violi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/10/2012 17:20

Wet next wednesday.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/10/2012 17:59

Originally Posted By: TheAnt
Too far out dawood, until the models start to agree on something not much point talking about it smile


LOL, wasnt that the whole point of this thread?
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/10/2012 18:05

Yeah I see your point but dawood said point me in the direction of the models but none of them are really matching, although with the latest ones they've sort'ved agreed. GFS had a low on Wednesday and widespread storms, ACCESSG had a coldpool and GFS agree with them more now.
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/10/2012 20:15

Thats what i wanted to check as I saw BSCH has a nice set up but i dont want to jinx it
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/10/2012 06:26

Well done AV who predicted sometime ago the turn around in the BoM outlook for the summer weather pattern. BoM now agree with AV and his take on summer being a wet one pretty much Australia wide and are surprised at the sudden change in circumstances which lead to this conclusion. For more information see article on WZ.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/10/2012 21:45

Keeping an eye on the models for next week, looks interesting.
Both Frogs (Lilly and Fergus) were croaking together tonight, I think though it may have been a love song rather then a rain call??? smirk
Posted by: Seina

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/10/2012 22:11

Originally Posted By: Anthony Violi
Climate has shifted

On that point I agree smile . In the Streamflow Observations thread in the General Weather section, I recently made a note of changes in humidity...there appears to be an association between them and [estimated] soil moisture, thus rainfall. Recently the humidity climbed sharply in a 24-hour period, with little or no rain (less than 1 mm). I believe this was partially due to insufficient moisture/pressure changes, but I could be mistaken. GFS is hinting at a more dramatic and robust change in humidity circa the end of the month across the region (southeast)...I think it will be very interesting to see what happens smile .
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/10/2012 23:32

the models are just teasing me!!!

I think I might go crazy if I don't see lightning within the next 10 days
Posted by: Anthony Violi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/10/2012 07:59

Originally Posted By: Gabby
Well done AV who predicted sometime ago the turn around in the BoM outlook for the summer weather pattern. BoM now agree with AV and his take on summer being a wet one pretty much Australia wide and are surprised at the sudden change in circumstances which lead to this conclusion. For more information see article on WZ.


Thanks Gabby. Yes i did say on July 16 cool neutral, looks about right. Stuck to my guns with my outlook ever since.

Also i did mention an early monsoon in mid December...will be a good test to see if it comes off but lately the behaviour is truly bizzare across the Tropics.

All this cold air sweeping up in the ridge has kept the interior dry all winter thanks to Antarctica, but i think its going to work in our favour as the troughs are more active than ever atm, just lacking serious moisture.

But next week patterns shift and we start to see inflows from the NW and NE of the country. From here i expect a massive response to the dry period we have seen in the desert.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/10/2012 19:21

Putting it out there.....We have a lucerne paddock to be cut for hay. Hubby is thinking about dropping it tomorrow and has asked what is the weather going to do. Checked WZ has 5-10mm wed, had a look at models all looking dry for the week except cmc. So I have no idea! Anyone out there have any thoughts on this week regarding rain for the north east and northern country.
Posted by: Anthony Violi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/10/2012 06:22

Rain Wednesday IMO.....

Keep an eye on the Cup day and week region.

Something massive is brewing.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/10/2012 14:35

Something massive brewing on the east coast of the US that's for sure, but that's off topic. BSCH have backed off storm chances on Wednesday, not much rain but a cooler change. The blue line is starting to go lower.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/10/2012 20:22

Thanks AV, hubby dropped the hay this morning. So lets hope it will dry and be pressed in time before any rain. Chances are it will rain.
Now on another note. I just cannot seem to be able to get onto Weatherzone to check the models anyone else having this problem?
Posted by: teckert

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/10/2012 20:54

I'd say its got something to do with this...

Originally Posted By: Matthew Pearce
Sorry guys...

The Fairfax hosting centre (where Weatherzone is hosted) has lost all power, and its multiple backup systems have failed for some reason.

The issue is currently being investigated but I don't have an ETA for its resolution.
Posted by: S .O.

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/10/2012 20:55

You beat me too it teckert ....

Servers down ....

Bloody Electricians ! ;-)
Posted by: Anthony Violi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/10/2012 22:27

Originally Posted By: TheAnt
Something massive brewing on the east coast of the US that's for sure, but that's off topic. BSCH have backed off storm chances on Wednesday, not much rain but a cooler change. The blue line is starting to go lower.


Wouldn't worry about models, don't need them to forecast much....watch satellite and you can see convergence all,over the place. Models and BOM a step behind.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/10/2012 06:09

Wednesday looks pretty good on EC atm storm wise and even has it thickening up a bit into Thursday.
Posted by: Anthony Violi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/10/2012 13:24

Upper low is forming near the NSW, SA and Qld border.

Lucky no models has picked it up. So now we will see what it spits out tonight.

looks good to me fro a good few days of action starting tomorrow, if not today near the border.

And then, hold on to your hats.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/10/2012 16:26

I thought it was a fairly weak upper trough Anthony?
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/10/2012 17:16

I assume that the melbourne area receives its strongest storms from the north?
Posted by: Anthony Violi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/10/2012 18:26

It doesnt look too weak to me atm. Plenty of moisture moving down from the NE, if we get to 30 tomorrow we will go very close to seeing a storm on the seabreeze convergence, let alone the trough moving down from NSW.

Lightning galore on the northern flank of the upper low in Southern QLD, which indicates very cold uppers.

Lots to work with, wed and thursday both look ok too.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/10/2012 19:26

Dew points and humidity not the best for tommorow I don't think, maybe outer suburbs will have a chance?
Posted by: Anthony Violi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/10/2012 19:33

Dewpoints were negative 15 in WA last week...they had 400% above normal for the month.

All the Dps means is you wont get heavy dumpers.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/10/2012 22:22

Fergus is backing you up AV.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/10/2012 22:33

Fergus will be very happy (as would Petros) if things unfold this way........


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

To me, a NW cloudband feeding into an inland heat low, cold air from the S and uppers to add fire. Potentially a significant rain event to all Vic areas that need one.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/11/2012 09:47

Yes looks like a deepening trough may stretch across the country mid next week. BSCH GFS has been hinting for the last couple of runs.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/11/2012 07:53

Bit of fun on the models atm. Several days ago EC had a nice widespread solid rain event for VIC around Thursday of this week. It was the only model at that time, had it for 2 runs then dropped it and currently has shower here and there from Thursday to Friday. GFS then hinted at agreeing with this for 1 run and has also since had just hint of a shower. Thats one model camp.
In the other camp we have ACC which as it often does mirrored EC two runs after EC had the rain, difference is that ACC is sticking with the widespread rain although not heavy. CMC has widespread solid to heavy rains, and has stuck with this for a couple of runs. The normally conservative NOGAPS also falls into the rain camp from Thursday into Friday.

Hopefully the rain camp comes up trumps.

If the cooler uppers behind Mondays front can linger it might help any rain chances..
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/11/2012 21:35

Little rain about for this week in Vic by this arvos models run. Hopefully a storm late in the arvo tomorrow down this way to ease a strong case of SSDS.
Posted by: The Fishman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/11/2012 23:11

Was there a malfunction of the convective outlook page as it had us for severe thunderstorms? There was hardly a cloud in the sky after lunch!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/11/2012 21:31

Not much to interest in the outlook - perhaps the chance of a storm with a cold front Wednesday??
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/11/2012 19:05

I see next Wednesday as very similar to Monday this week.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/11/2012 23:08

Do not agree. I see storms.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/11/2012 09:08

Love you to be right Petros but its hard to see. Also timing looks a bit faster so if anything was to happen Tuesday night might be the time frame as it appears this morning. Eastern part of the state south of divide might score a few mm's tonight into Sunday actually, hoping it can reach back as far as here but not optimistic. After 3 and a bit years of rain here at home the last two months or so have been hard to take..
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/11/2012 16:05

Petros your chance may come early tommorow.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/11/2012 18:39

While nothing to get too excited about, at least W&S Gippy is progged for a chance of a Wed rumble according to BOM's forecast this arvo.....

Wednesday 21 November Partly cloudy. Isolated showers until evening. The chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Winds north to northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h increasing to 45 km/h before turning west to southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h during the morning. Overnight temperatures falling to between 11 and 15 with daytime temperatures reaching 22 to 28.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/11/2012 16:29

BSCH for next weekend are forecasting some storms across Victoria.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/11/2012 08:01

Unlike GFS EC has been pretty constant on that since it came into range. This morning getting support from others and bringing them closer to central parts. If ACC right there is a MONSTER cap though. In any event things finally look real interesting for the end of month period, been hinted at for a few days but starting to take shape now. Might put the "is it just me" thread to bed for awhile.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/11/2012 07:28

GFS and EC both have storms just west of Melbourne Saturday and EC persisting with SW coast Sunday. Weather around Monday / Tuesday and then heat followed by storms and or rain chance.

Probably going to be two separate threads needed? One from weekend to Tuesday and then another from Thursday to next weekend. Might wait on that one as timing is mixed and we need to get 1st trough out of way
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/11/2012 21:41

Looking at ACCESS G. Chance of rain in the west of Victoria. 29th Nov 2012. Finally !! some wet!!
Looks like a tropical north west in-feed combining with a large elongated north south aligned bulge in the westerly low pressure belt . Looks like a massive trough
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml

The low in the southern ocean is 981 h pa on the Wednesday the 28th and the cut off ' encompassing all of WA and NT
Looks like the potential for a fairly decent N/west cloud band passing over all of OZ
Reckon this could be the western Vic first storm since last summer


Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/11/2012 18:30

You do put up well researched posts Crikey! smile

Havent looked "out there" yet but you've inspired this little black duck to get off his bum!
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/11/2012 20:59

Howdy PETROS ..Regards from the west of the state
There is talk of a decent heat outbreak this week . So went to check it out .
Oh My !! 40 deg C at 5 pm this thursday the 29th Nov 2o12 in west VIC before the change
Quite amazing really as we have only had 2 days at 30 deg c all spring. So this is a sudden step up here.
It looks like late summer..January or Feb here. The land is very and brown from low rainfall.
Extreme fire danger days commenced this week.
ACCESS G suggests This thursday is the worst of the heat days. ACCESS G believes the cool change will not arrive until thursday evening
I hope the change comes in early so it doesn't get to 40 deg c
ACCESS indicates the change creeping in , thursday evening and it is still 28 deg C at 11pm !! in central Vic



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/11/2012 21:09

Yep Crikey, looks to be remarkably hot Thursday and Friday nights to come.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/12/2012 19:00

Some good NE infeed events on the cards for next week.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/12/2012 21:55

Some significant hot weather on our doorstep for Saturday with a stormy change. Isnt there?
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/12/2012 08:05

By Tuesday someones going to have to start a thread for the end of the week and next weekend. Could be west, could be east or central, bit unclear at this point but potential for some pretty high accumulated totals of rain in this period. Tuesday will bring us close enough that we can start pronosticating in more detail(hopefully), ha ha
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/12/2012 22:11

Yep, building warmth over Wed-Fri rather than one days heat delivered from the N this time round. Should be interesting come next Fri evening or thereabouts.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/12/2012 19:29

EC upping its predictions and spatial coverage, other models still very enthusiastic as well. Starting to look promising. It better deliver, pretty dry here. Sure I am not alone on that one.
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/12/2012 19:48

Ch9 weather Melbourne talking around 20mm for Melbourne on Saturday and thunderstorms
I agree Ruckle It better deliver. We got zilch from the last tropical in-feed that missed us.
Super dry here. Official drought. High fire danger everyday
Every plant gone to seed in despair
ACCESS G tonight has thrown up a fabulous 995 hPa low over all of Vic on the Sunday the 16th Dec., Looks very wet on that map atm. whoo Hoo!!
I will be on the Murray at Barham at this time and they look to get a dumping on that scenario!! and tenting!! oh dear!!Change of plans maybe ..
Ha LOL.. Just counted 45 mm predicted for my area in west nth central next Sunday

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

Bonza!!!
Anyway a long way out and things will change. sigh
Nice to here the weather lady talking humidity.
Will have to check out the predicted dew points for this event at some time.
45mm will be a months worth of rain for us in one day
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/12/2012 21:12

It is looking promising at the moment. Make a change from keeping the garden alive.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/12/2012 17:15

Early christmas prediction from norweigan Heavy rain 17c all day but probably more like 20 following a very hot day on Christmas eve.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/12/2012 19:26

Seems like next Friday might be a low pressure system to deliver some decent rain and storms?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/12/2012 20:04

A thundery Christmas eve may be a possibility for S Central Vic imo.
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/12/2012 20:14

Disappointed once again. The chance of rain for the west VIC before Christmas has vanished according to the weather news tonight
Tinder dry here.
ACCESS G agreeing. Posted below is the T + 102 hr forecast for christmas day for OZ.
Maybe some drips for the far east of VIC on Christmas day
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer

The forecast is for 39 deg c on Sunday 23rd Dec in Bendigo and Melbourne

We are heading down south for a week to do the Christmas relative rounds
Looking forward to visiting the ocean and visit the Mornington peninsula
Nice weather for holidaying actually

Glad we are going south actually.. Forecast for Somerville is 33 deg C for Sunday.
6 Deg C less than central country VIC.. !! NICE!!

Have a Happy Christmas all.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: duckweather

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/12/2012 17:53

Anyone got some good moves for a rain dance?
Pooo to this heat. It's still here (no wind) and cloudy.
It's apparently 37 degrees here atm, but my little gizmo outside says it is nudging 40....
But must admit this temp is nothing to the 50 degrees we had on that horrible and sad Black Saturday...so I shouldn't really complain.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/12/2012 18:41

You're gonna have to wait till around atleast 7am or so until the change passes through Duck smirk
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/12/2012 18:46

about right still 40c from SA to Vic still long way for NW to SE swing change
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/12/2012 18:53

Bit worry this year as i need another 50mm rain to make average of 550mm of year but i think dry weather pattern for SA and VIC
Posted by: duckweather

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/12/2012 07:41

It's 29c here at the moment (7:40am) and was a very warm night. Though it is still very warm, the change coming through is feeling pretty good - wonder what it has in store for us?
Getting very windy.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/12/2012 08:14

Change isnt through the city yet, whats going on out in Wantirna?

Anyway as for this thread, pretty hard to see any events to get excited about. Might be some rain out east toward the end of this week?
Posted by: duckweather

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/12/2012 08:27

Hi Ruckle.
The wind gusts here are getting pretty strong. The neighbours garage door sounds like it's ready to take off on occasions.
Also getting the odd 'wave' of leaves and twigs belting over the decking roof.
smile
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/12/2012 09:23

Gusty but not so gusty you can't hear the Currawongs and chainsaws here at Montmorency/Eltham, although we are getting the odd 15 to 30 second long express train roar up the gully. I thought we were going to lose one of the trees out the front earlier. Got down to 24C or so around midnight but was back up to 29C by 3am with that humid NE. Love the way you can see the wind vectors outlining the structure of the back of that high on the 512km BOM radar.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/12/2012 13:51

cool winds hits here great open all windows no rain is bad luck
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/12/2012 21:04

Still nothing out there of interest over the next 5 days or so.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/12/2012 21:58

.... maybe a little heat and humidity towards the end of next week?

CMC...


Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/12/2012 23:34

Can't see that Petros but that chart looks glitched up. That's extremely different to GFS and ACCESS and it looks like the rainfall is wacked out.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/12/2012 08:23

The only "event" on the horizon is a nationwide heatwave looking at most models. VIC,NSW and QLD immediate coast should generally be spared (and TAS naturally) but away from coast looks to become very hot over the next couple of weeks. Notwithstanding the general definition of a "heatwave" these days appears to be 1 hot day in Melbourne, lol.

Only vague hope is GFS has some thundery chances 10 or so days out.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/12/2012 13:31

Boring weather pattern for Victoria Chasers until next 5 days what Petros said....
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/12/2012 13:41

Looking outside why clouds every where trying to capping and look at satellite looks like trough line from South to North center Victoria.
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.html?region=vic&loop=no&images=&allday=&start=&stop=#nav
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/12/2012 20:35

Ch 9 weather report indicating a cool New years eve evening in Melbourne with expected 17 deg c at midnight and 12 deg C ! at 2.00am on new years day..

Winter woolies on while waiting for the non existent taxis in the CBD during the early hours of the New years morning..

Sleeping on park benches cancelled due to cold weather expected
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/12/2012 21:41

I think Ant is right, that big vacuum cleaner hovering out in the Coral Sea over the next 7 days looks like it will "Hoover" up any wayward moisture that might have migrated down this way. Oh well, good water skiing weather for Maffra and beack weather for Inverloch over the outlook.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/12/2012 21:35

As Ruckle mentioned a few days ago (and now the models seem to be coming together on), it looking like a possibility of sustained heat from 4th or 6th Jan. There's discussion on the General Weather forums about the likelihood of a heat wave but mainly looking at it affecting SA/Nullabor. Any thoughts on what the models are suggesting 4/6th Jan onwards?
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/12/2012 09:10

ThunderBob it looks like it could take hold a bit after those dates, there was a huge belt of cold air in the ocean but it doesn't look like any will reach far enough to break this.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/12/2012 12:30

Looks like a heat wave from Thursday through to, and past, Sun 8th Jan for E Aus going by GFS. In this next 7+ days TC Freda is progged to wend southwards from the Soloman Is down to NZ - cooling most of the Coral Sea and preventing moisture inflow to Aust E seaboard. Also prevents the forming of the "next" cyclone while its out there (my guess, no expert) - unless itself decided to make a visit to NSW with its remnants as a massive ECL the week after (9-12/1/12)?
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/12/2012 15:19

What it might do and could really cause annoyance is a blocking pattern.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/12/2012 20:46

Latest GFS shows similar, but no chance of Freda moving towards Aus after it reaches NZ area. Time for a heatwave thread and a discussion on the eventual change for Vic??
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/12/2012 20:59

January Monday 7th to Wednesday 9th Jan 2013 will be first heatwave for 2013 signs Temperature would rise up to 45c over SE Australia and Tasmania
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/12/2012 21:51

Wow CA - had no idea that extremes of that nature are possible. Glad I'm down at Inverloch then (unless fires start).
Posted by: Jayson Black

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/12/2012 13:58

I've got a brand new DSLR with HD video and cant use it for chasing yet, and looks like theres not going to be much in the way of instability for at least 10 days. /me hangs head. Looking at satellite animations and model animations it looks bizarre, in that all decent cloud features, moisture and anything good just heads away from SE in every direction. Its this stupid dominant high. Go away high. Looks like little weak troughs are trying to slice though it or someting, but they just get flung out East-ish as if in a centrifuge.

I'm only happy when it rains poke
Posted by: sookinhenri

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/12/2012 16:24

Hi guys, this probably isn't the right thread to ask in but I didn't want to start a whole new one. I'm looking for a list of severe weather events in Victoria for however far back I can get. I've looked on the bom site but can't seem to find a list, although I found a reference to one with no link. If someone could point me in the right direction, that'd be awesome. Thanks.
Posted by: teckert

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/12/2012 16:27

a good starting point http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/vic/index.shtml
and also the national releases and climate statements (links at the top)
Posted by: sookinhenri

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/12/2012 16:51

Thanks. Ill have a look through.
Posted by: vjknight

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/12/2012 17:46

Originally Posted By: sookinhenri
Hi guys, this probably isn't the right thread to ask in but I didn't want to start a whole new one. I'm looking for a list of severe weather events in Victoria for however far back I can get. I've looked on the bom site but can't seem to find a list, although I found a reference to one with no link. If someone could point me in the right direction, that'd be awesome. Thanks.


even better

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/stormarchive/
Posted by: vjknight

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/12/2012 17:49

i am curious - how many people here are both interested weather observers, and have solar panels, and hence interested in maintaining weather patterns similar to now, with fine, sunny, cool breeze rather than extended heat, storms, and related activity.

torn between the two.
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/12/2012 18:57

We have solar panels (18). but my interest in extreme weather is such that the panels are secondary. Fine and sunny is good for the panels, but extended heat and possible instability is my main interest at this time of year.
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/12/2012 19:38

Ditto, except I've only got 8. Panels operating efficiently are great at reducing the bill but thunder and lightning are more to my liking. Happy and interesting 2013 all. smile

I want a bit more heat for my melons too.
Posted by: sookinhenri

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/12/2012 19:46

Originally Posted By: vjknight
Originally Posted By: sookinhenri
Hi guys, this probably isn't the right thread to ask in but I didn't want to start a whole new one. I'm looking for a list of severe weather events in Victoria for however far back I can get. I've looked on the bom site but can't seem to find a list, although I found a reference to one with no link. If someone could point me in the right direction, that'd be awesome. Thanks.


even better

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/stormarchive/


This is fantastic. Thanks heaps. Exactly what I was looking for. smile
Posted by: vjknight

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/01/2013 20:32

anyone got a forecast for the period 19-23 jan - heading to halls gap and praying it wont be too hot.
Posted by: Vlasta

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/01/2013 15:20

I let others with more expertise to open next rain event .
Just looking at the unreliable 16day wunderground GFS model is reliable sometimes . It more or less has had rain on 14th or 15th this month 2 weeks ago .
YR.model ignored it yesterday , but today has announced rain on 14th . Still wanna see it 3 days out thought . However its a good start .

http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Melbourne/long.html
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/01/2013 22:12

VJKNIGHT..ACCESS G suggesting a large trough possibly incorporating EX -WA tropical cyclone ( if all go to plan for the model LOL)..
arriving on the WA coast line next friday the 12th of Jan 2013
Now give it 3 days to get to VIC so that makes the trough with hopefully some moisture arriving on the 14th/15th Jan

So if your going away 4days later VJKNIGHT. THat suggests you are likely to score the next big high pressure cell following the trough. The next 'high' appears to be centering further north at 30 deg S latitude

So thinking no winds and stinking hot..for the 19th heading to halls gap..

So I would prepare for HOT and DRY

Hopefully the active monsoon trough can modify or upset that pattern. Good luck!
Posted by: vjknight

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/01/2013 13:00

Originally Posted By: crikey
VJKNIGHT..ACCESS G suggesting a large trough possibly incorporating EX -WA tropical cyclone ( if all go to plan for the model LOL)..
arriving on the WA coast line next friday the 12th of Jan 2013
Now give it 3 days to get to VIC so that makes the trough with hopefully some moisture arriving on the 14th/15th Jan

So if your going away 4days later VJKNIGHT. THat suggests you are likely to score the next big high pressure cell following the trough. The next 'high' appears to be centering further north at 30 deg S latitude

So thinking no winds and stinking hot..for the 19th heading to halls gap..

So I would prepare for HOT and DRY

Hopefully the active monsoon trough can modify or upset that pattern. Good luck!



thanks crikey really appreciated this when it was posted.

considering narelle is now a fully fledged bag of wind and coast bound friday, are there any new forecasts for that period. would so much prefer to be there this weekend, with cooler temps forecast, but 19-23 jan it remains.

regards
vjk
Posted by: The Fishman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/01/2013 13:10

Originally Posted By: vjknight
.......

considering narelle is now a fully fledged bag of wind .......

regards
vjk


I think it is funny to have a Cyclone named after your Girlfriend.

But on to my original reason for posting. I woke up last Monday 7th, January, it felt like Autumn has started! It felt like 22nd March! Why am I feeling like this? My Circadian rhythm is out of step! I hope I'm wrong and we can get a summer going as it has been it fits & starts but Melbourne is famous for 4 seasons in one day. Ice Age maybe?

The weather machine seems to be broken! The weather has been inconsistent for the last 4 summers!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/01/2013 21:05

Interesting that AccG dosent create a follow-up cyclone of the NW WA coast like all other WZ models do over coming days.

Next Thursday seems be a serious fire threat day again for us Vics.

In the meantime its been a cold westerly 19c around these parts (including Maffra, have just returned home from a year at Inverloch).
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/01/2013 20:29

VJK..Looks like your wishes are granted for the start of your Grampians trip .
On saturday 19th / sunday 20th cooler southerly winds arrive from the eastern flank of the next high pressure cell

ACCESS G indicating no rain for next weekend
However l like what l see for next monday the 21st
Some low pressure dipping down from the north over Victoria
and another trough

I wonder if you will get wet before your holiday ends?
Nothing on ACCESS g books as yet re rainfall for VIC.

Jane Bunn weather forecaster hinting at a change in synoptic pattern due ..with monsoonal activity

link to:wind streams for the weekend

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View



Have a great time!!
Posted by: vjknight

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/01/2013 21:27

Originally Posted By: crikey
VJK..Looks like your wishes are granted for the start of your Grampians trip .
On saturday 19th / sunday 20th cooler southerly winds arrive from the eastern flank of the next high pressure cell

ACCESS G indicating no rain for next weekend
However l like what l see for next monday the 21st
Some low pressure dipping down from the north over Victoria
and another trough


thanks crikey. been watching the bom forecast update and the synoptic chart suggested things were going to be ok - similar to the current 5 day period(sat-wed)

no stinking hot days means we can enjoy our 1st holiday in 3 years.

p.s. anyone can tell/show me how to read the bsch site forecast ?
looks very informative - if only i knew what i was looking at.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/01/2013 21:54

Agree with Crikey and Jane. On the watch for an Easterly dip to bring some rain in from the NE mid next week. I hope.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/01/2013 18:38

Todays model runs dont show much prospect for an easterly dip forming in the Vic region next week, so there goes any rain prospects (not that any of us have been mooting one).

Probably due to Qld cyclone forming in the next few days - if one doesent, then maybe some moist air could advect down and alter the model outputs.

To me, this leaves SE Aus next week with hot days over NSW and milder east/southerly weather over most of Vic (at least the southern coastal strip). Bad for the NSW fire situation, good for Vics.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/01/2013 20:02

Agree with you Petros. Media are running the line that "authorities" see Thursday as a dangerous day for the fires in Gippsland. Though there will be a northerly flow, I just don't see it as particularly bad on any of the criteria.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/01/2013 14:57

Couple of storms possible in eastern hillier parts Monday and thunderbob that Northerly flow will certainly be strongest over eastern parts of the state at this time for Thursday. Not huge as you imply but certainly the least favourable wind conditions in our state on Thursday look to be over eastern parts as of this mornings models.
Posted by: EFujita5

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/01/2013 22:06

this summer has been really frustrating. very big change compared to last summer. but i am guessing its got to do with the reversing la nina

but it has been so very dry and very hot and muggy at times. but nothing seems to be coming out of it at all. i do not even remember the last time a good storm move through, does anyone even remember the last set of good cells [ November maybe?]. and the outlook i have viewed is not favorable for anything interesting, well not anything awesome

we are really desperate for some rain for our bush fire's and a cooler break to provide relief.

i am hoping February will provide that as normally even on dry summers February provides some rain

possibly is there much interest of the cyclones producing any wetter weather down our way? i saw Petros above me suggest something. when would we possibly know?
Posted by: The Fishman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/01/2013 22:34

The last storm I remember was Melbourne Cup Day?
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/01/2013 12:24

No Rain for 2 months look like in February who knows very boring January for storm chasers nothing to do.....
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/01/2013 17:05

No December something fishman. It's not really reversing Fujita, it's a neutral year, and it looks like it go la nina eventually.
Posted by: EFujita5

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/01/2013 17:46

Originally Posted By: TheAnt
No December something fishman. It's not really reversing Fujita, it's a neutral year, and it looks like it go la nina eventually.


sorry poor English i guess was my let down. but i guess i see it as La Nina is + and El Nino is - and right now we are in between kinda neutral.. but in my mind it reserved into the middle.. sorry i guess it only make sense to me.

hmm any chance you can link me to where it states we will go back into a la nina cycle. because all iv read was about stabilizing
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/01/2013 19:15

Can't link you to articles but look at various discussions about it in forums (can't remember where I saw it). Yeah it's a La Nada which is neutral atm. Upper ridging is what's stopped the rainfall across eastern Australia.
Posted by: The Fishman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/01/2013 20:37

Originally Posted By: TheAnt
No December something fishman. It's not really reversing Fujita, it's a neutral year, and it looks like it go la nina eventually.


Upon further research, Late November 30th, early December 1st, just a little after midnight.
Posted by: S .O.

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/01/2013 21:40

Originally Posted By: EFujita5
Originally Posted By: TheAnt
No December something fishman. It's not really reversing Fujita, it's a neutral year, and it looks like it go la nina eventually.


sorry poor English i guess was my let down. but i guess i see it as La Nina is + and El Nino is - and right now we are in between kinda neutral.. but in my mind it reserved into the middle.. sorry i guess it only make sense to me.

hmm any chance you can link me to where it states we will go back into a la nina cycle. because all iv read was about stabilizing


From the most recent update on the ENSO state .
We , had a peak of Nino 3.4 back in August /Sept of close to Nino thresholds . ( around + 0.8 for near a month or so ) during most of that building period ( winter spring time ) the atmospheric component of ENSO ( for australia ) had OLR and SOI at slightly La Nina ish to eventually El nino ish ... so many called La Nada ( neutral ) .

From Oct till now we have seen that El Nino threshold ease and even as we speak its heading more towards La Nina teritory . And all this while thats its fallen the Atmosphere has been very much in a El nino type mode . However i believe with the Monsoon finally breaking that we will finally see the Atmosphere catch back up to the Nino 3.4 ( ocean temps analysis ) and we " should " see wetter conditions going forward . There are many hallmarks in the Subsurface Ocean countercurrents both in the Mid Pacific and Indian / Indonesian Through Flow . Hence many are now discussing in the ENSO thread here and elsewhere that there will be a further fall in Nino 3.4 to to atleast La Nina Thresholds . and only unlocking the PDO influence will see any strong confidence in anyones forecast . of which not many have been forthcoming in their " water divining ways " ....

Sorry for such long post ( tried to make it short and precise ) . PM me if I've missed something or not explained myself well enough .
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/01/2013 21:40

Originally Posted By: EFujita5
[quote=TheAnt]
hmm any chance you can link me to where it states we will go back into a la nina cycle. because all iv read was about stabilizing


Try Anthony Violi's site - he has been mooting a return to La Nina for quite some time.

http://www.therealworldweatherforum.com/looking-towards-future-events-t13-70.html
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/01/2013 22:43

Yep since around July he's said we won't go into El Nino
Posted by: EFujita5

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/01/2013 01:50

Thank you to some of my favorite people here at WZ, SO, Petros and TheAnt

that's what i love about this place. i ask a question. you might know something. someone else my have an opinion. we all learn something.

some good reading for me to go over and disgust, appreciate it
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/01/2013 19:16

Well I haven't looked at all the models yet, but over on the NSW extreme heat thread http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1155636/59 Bogong and Southerly_Buster mentioned the latest extended GFS looks cold and wet for a lot of the SE around the 2nd and 3rd of Feb.

One to watch as it gets closer to the date.

Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/01/2013 20:34

Yep, it's a long way out but something to get excited about...cold pool well over Tasmania but just not reaching Vic at 240 hours on ACCESS. The serious grip summers having might just begin to be breaking. *fingers crossed*
Posted by: vjknight

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/01/2013 21:17

Originally Posted By: crikey
VJK..Looks like your wishes are granted for the start of your Grampians trip .
On saturday 19th / sunday 20th cooler southerly winds arrive from the eastern flank of the next high pressure cell

ACCESS G indicating no rain for next weekend
However l like what l see for next monday the 21st
Some low pressure dipping down from the north over Victoria
and another trough

I wonder if you will get wet before your holiday ends?

Have a great time!!




and again thanks crikey. the weather could not have been more perfect. the kids got to swim at any time of day every day (but was sun smart), it was always cool at night with the clear skies, it was never too hot for the rock climbing, and the strong cool breeze meant the climb up and over yesterday was survived.

the weather can do what it wants now - some rain would be handy.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/01/2013 21:57

CMC only, unsupported by other models for later this coming weekend, wouldnt the fire fighters love this to come off? ..............


Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/01/2013 22:08

Mmmmm, Mud! Would be beautiful to see that come off.
Posted by: Vlasta

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/01/2013 09:21

ECMWF has longer run , YR model didnt pick anything last night . It did this morning and agrees with GFS . Cold and some 30mm of rain 1st of FEB onwards .
Does anyone know how to bring precipitation and temperature on this page ? I imagine it would be similar to GFS , kinda like this one than GFS synopticcharts LOL .
http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/e...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
Posted by: Ausweatherwatch

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/01/2013 09:34

Hi guys, I have been hanging out in the QLD and WA forums talking cyclones, but am actually from Phillip Island, thought I would say hi.
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/01/2013 15:03

Hello Ausweatherwatch! Since you have been talking cyclones and lows perhaps you can give us some idea of where you think these lows may head. It would be really nice if conditions allowed them to come to Vic to drop some of that lovely rain they have collected.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/01/2013 16:49

As long the front does not slip down to SE too quick and or dry out as it reach West Victoria border but the front is thick at moment
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/01/2013 17:33

Watch as either next Thursday or Friday is downgraded into the teens tempwise.
Posted by: Jayson Black

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/01/2013 18:00

My Parents are in Port hedland. I'm sure they are fine. I've been in several with them, (one was the one that wiped out the whim creek hotel with Gusts to 340Kmph. I think it was around the mid 1990's) So I reckon they're pretty experienced.

About the possible movements of the Ex T.C.'s: The people who are into severe Wx in sydney are hoping the coming front will be of low enough pressure to draw ex TC Oswald down the coast as one recent GFS Run Suggested (now has it a little off the coast, LOl at one stage it suggested 1250mm for Sydney City (imagine that)). I think it was yesterdays 00z run.

However if that where to come off because the ex TC was drawn down because of lower pressure in the south, that would surely mean the Pilbara Ex TC's Low would have to fall even further south by the time it got here. Conversely, if there is a mechanism to help the Ex pilbara TC come to SE-Au then surely Ex Oswald will be moved away SE by the same mechanism. So IMO, we can only have 1 or none for SE Aust, let alone VIC. Its very rare a pilbara EX TC will come across and dump on Melbs. Though I do remember it a fair bit during the 1990's, I just dont Remember it happening in the last 12 years (since I have been paying keen attention to the Wx for Storm prospects)

I was however, at least hoping that trough extending East out of the low, down into VIC would draw some moisture, but on the East Side around central Eastern West Au there is some Divergence, then the winds head north (on the North-East Side of trough) pushing any moisture away. (in fact Im gonna check that out on the Water Vapor Sat Pic, hopefully it will eventually feed some moisture down. Dam shame actually, with some moisture, this front could have done ok for most of us. Dam Moisture, it seems to be the dominating factor all the time to the lack of rain or rather storms lately. :-S
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/01/2013 22:25

from fire to snow? Following that event it's almost like it's already transitioning from Summer to Autumn with the high pushing further north.
Posted by: S .O.

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/01/2013 23:38

I tend to think that this following one or two weeks will be a " counterbalance" to so much Tropical infeed to so south a Lattitudes . Almost as if it will be dragged in its wake .

On another note , i just returned from a bit of a jog .... and got COVERED in spider webs .... another occurence where Nature is trying to tell us of Impending Moisture / wet spell ( weeks / months /seasons ) ??!
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/01/2013 01:47

Dunno SO, I've been hitting spider webs in my garden all summer. Snails were funny though. Unless the dog has been moving them, they've been congregating on one particular bit of very dry lawn (all the lawn is very dry)
Posted by: duckweather

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/01/2013 07:29

As I type this, it appears that we are the hottest place in the country. Melbourne nearly 30 degrees. Broome is just 'behind' us. crazy
Getting lizards coming up and under one of my my shelters - lying on the cooler tiles. Found a couple on one of the back doors too. I used to see these cute little things all over the place in Queensland in the hot weather, not so much here.

I hope Petros and others who have direct concerns about the fire activity here atm are OK and are safe. Been thinking of them each day.

Duck
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/01/2013 20:27

I haven't had time to look at many details of the setup tomorrow (Sat) because of all the action in my part of the world but the output from my thunderstorm script below (directly displays where GFS develops deep convection with rainfall) is suggesting strong updrafts for parts of far eastern VIC. I did see a surface & upper trough nearby with steep lapse rates, decent moisture & shear. Note that the map is for 1am Sat to 1am Sun AEST and so includes half of the very early morning hours of Sat:

Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/01/2013 00:01

Just how accurate is that Ken?
Posted by: Sameoldstory

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/01/2013 06:41

Originally Posted By: TheAnt
Just how accurate is that Ken?


Pretty accurate so far. We had some ripper storms just to our west in the early hours of this morning. The amount of lightning in a few of these cells was phenominal. Think a few residents in Bairnsdale would have had a sleepless night last night!

Hoping that next cell from the north-west won't miss us in Lakes Entrance, seems like years since we've had a decent storm. Might be our last chance for the day as I'm guessing the storms will be confined further and further to the east as the day goes on.
Posted by: Sameoldstory

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/01/2013 07:29

Wow! Almost a case of be careful what you wish for here! That cell went right over us and dumped 7mm worth of marble sized hail. Was amazing, was sitting on back verandah with my old man and we could hear this roar for 10 minutes slowly get louder and louder. We thought it was a jet plane until our back yard started getting pelted with white missiles!!

Think that's it for us though, that trough line is gradually moving further east. Should be an interesting afternoon in the far east of Gippsland.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/01/2013 08:29

Yeah, Sameold, quite exciting here at Sarsfield. Perhaps the line is slipping SE-ward rather than continuing across East Gipps? Only a mm or so here but that's the best for quite a while.
Posted by: Sameoldstory

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/01/2013 09:09

Another cell rolling in from the north west Thunderbob! Loving this grin
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/01/2013 09:34

Yeah, looks like an intense cell approaching Lakes. Gotta go - packing to go back to NT for a while. We have to be thankful this didn't happen without rain and/or coming into a hot windy period.
Posted by: Sameoldstory

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/01/2013 10:36

Yep this rain is happening just at the right time of the year. Looks like the worst of the fire season may be over for East Gippsland if these conditions continue throughout the weekend, touch wood.

Up to 12mm now, our first rainfall since December 18th. Nothing compared to what they're getting in Queensland but we'll take every mm we can get right now.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/01/2013 16:24

The upper trough should see these storms intensify aswell.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/01/2013 19:08

Not saying this will happen as its unsupported by other models, but EC thinks that this may happen next weekend..... (wish it would - no more fires)



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/01/2013 19:13

EC has been all over a Thurs to Sun type event, upper trough come cut off low type thing for a few days, so heres hoping its onto something.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/01/2013 12:07

MOst of the models are mooting a cut-off low to form near Gabo Island for Thursday night/Friday. Could bring some rain into SE Vic and worth watching.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/01/2013 17:36

Friday 1 February
Summary
Min 13
Max 18
A few showers. Possible storm.
Melbourne area
Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and the chance of thunderstorms. Possible hail. Winds south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h, increasing to 30 to 35 km/h during the day.

Goodie Goodie goodie
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/01/2013 20:12

Still on about Friday... - not presently supported by all models, but EC shows this brief (<2 day) cut-off chance for the Gippsland fire area....



Uploaded with ImageShack.us


Look closely at the fainter upper atmosphere pressure progs.... smile
Posted by: Vlasta

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/01/2013 08:41

Wander who wins , GFS has the ECL more to east and less precipitation . On the link I posted earlier are all models to compare . The black line is indeed 5deg , however my money is that there be snow saturday morning at Baw Baw and Buller .
http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/e...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/01/2013 09:05

12Z run has been the most easterly run of EC so far, totals in SC parts are a bit lower as a result, still pretty decent out east.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/01/2013 13:53

Look at the weather satellite of Victoria middle of sunny and hot and West weak front and East trough
Posted by: DVC

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/01/2013 17:05

so does that mean a period of increased nw-n-ne wind for central vic between the two systems - looks like they are rapidly approaching eachother!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/01/2013 14:32

Originally Posted By: Petros
MOst of the models are mooting a cut-off low to form near Gabo Island for Thursday night/Friday. Could bring some rain into SE Vic and worth watching.


All changed on this mornings runs, a cold change Friday but only a remote chance a cut-off will form. The local BOM office this morning also mentioned that any talk of a cut-off forming is now virtually kyboshed. Bugger.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/02/2013 18:21

Looking out at the far end of GFS/AccG's prog's - maybe we may get an Easterly dip set-up into the week after next 11-14/2/13?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/02/2013 18:07

Most models moot an Easterly dip/troughy set-up for Vic this time next week 11-14/2/13.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/02/2013 08:22

Temps for the next seven days to be in the low to high thirties and still no sign of rain. The last good downpour (27.6) was on the 16th December We need some good summer rains and the monsoon is not playing its part for the southern part of the country.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/02/2013 20:38

We certainly want some rain ay Gabby.

Summer is certainly doing what summer does.

Lets hope that AccG is hinting correctly in that the high to influence Vic at the end of this weekend coming may "sausage-out" S and over Tassie to allow us in the states N to get into a more tropical "Easterly Dip" situation into mid next week.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/02/2013 22:07

Wowee check out the instability across the whole country on Monday..
Posted by: Ausweatherwatch

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/02/2013 23:20

Hi guys, starting to look a little better next week, I am noticing on the GFS on Wdenesday there is a chance of decent rainfall around Melbournes east maybe a chance of some storms as well finally smile anyone else have any thoughts on whats coming up? smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/02/2013 18:43

Other than hot northerlies, an easterly dip is Vics only system of interest in coming week.

.....it just depends on the shape of the high progged to be over Tassie at that time. GFS does look promising - albiet when one is clutching at straws!!!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/02/2013 14:40

Gusty change to move through most of the state Saturday. Northerlies in the morning, westerlies in the late morning-afternoon, strong southerly late in the day (timings for Central). Remote chance of thunderstorms in the far NE late evening and perhaps a few showers overnight adjacent to the southern coast, but looking fairly dry(Suprise!). Not the hottest or the lowest RH or the windiest day so far this summer but speed of the change coupled with the run of warm and dry preceding means it's worth factoring into travel and work plans for the day. Anything burning on Saturday has a really good chance of taking a good run south, then east, then north again and the RH doesn't look like coming up enough to stop it running till quite late in the evening.
Posted by: Jayson Black

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/02/2013 17:03

Some very intersting weather showing up on models now for end of next week. Looks like a second trough splits off of the NSW one and retracts westward right into SA, The high tjhat moves off the east coast apears to direct some moisture down with it and Im wondering what wil happen as that trough begins to track east ward again, possibly with the assitance of a front with pre frontal trough? I know its was too early to say what would happen, just its been avery long time since I have noticed a trough retract that far west. Perhaps not since 06/07 maybe 08?
Posted by: Jayson Black

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/02/2013 17:12

FWOAR!!! imagine these come off:

CAPE 5PM local Feb 14

Lift 5pm Feb 14

Supercell Prob% 5pm FEB 14


Ac-tion!!!!
Posted by: Jayson Black

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/02/2013 17:15

bah forget it, no good for photography, but may be good for some wetness!!

Total Cloud cover for 11pm FEB 14
Posted by: Jayson Black

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/02/2013 17:18

Almost like a Sub Tropical cyclone LOL, Nice if it Rained as much!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/02/2013 21:27

Its slowly getting more likely that an easterly dip situation may be on its way next week......



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/02/2013 13:34

Victoria Northern Country been very dry for too long no rain since 1st January 2013
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/02/2013 18:27

Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Victoria Northern Country been very dry for too long no rain since 1st January 2013


... and Bairnsdale has had 3mm since 26th December ... very dry for this area. Will have to look at records to see how it compares.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/02/2013 21:00

Todays model runs strengthen the high over Tassie mid/late next week.

Looks like the end of prospects of moist NE flown into Vic and instead builds the potential for a windy northerly sysstem ahead of an inevitable gusty SW change towards the weekend following this.

Not good if you dont like fires in SW Vic.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/02/2013 21:26

Yes Petros. No a good prospect. Models do show some moisture in it around that time - is that likely convective rather than general? I really fear a "classic" strong, hot N/NW with strong, sustained SW change - something, despite all the problems, we have not really had during these last weeks. With the current and developing situation in the mountains we do not want or need such a weather situation.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/02/2013 08:30

Plenty of storms around on GFS and ACC toward the end of next week, particularly central and western parts (apologies to Petros and Thunderbob) then hints of a general rain event after that. EC not showing any precip really although a few days back it was interested in this time frame as well.
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/02/2013 12:17

Not much chance of rain up here for the next seven days other than if we are lucky enough to get under a storm later today (If storms eventuate that is)
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/02/2013 13:51

Currently small fast moving medium intensity blobs on Yarrawonga radar, but no idea whether any significant rain will fall out of them. I think you'd have to be lucky enough to be under a string of them if you wanted the rain to penetrate the ground Gabby frown
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/02/2013 19:22

So moist infeed to start off and according to GFS a front of sorts to finish off 1 event, while even more moisture flys in...either way gonna be some humid days in the next couple of weeks.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/02/2013 19:28

EC still hasnt joined the thunderstorm party although brings some activity closer to the state and even into the state on one day later in the week. Hard to believe there wont at least be storms from mid week on at least the ranges.
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/02/2013 20:08

Quite easy to imagine at least 6 days in a row over 30 from mid-week, perhaps more. The Melbourne record is 8.
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/02/2013 22:08

Some drops managed to make it to earth earlier today. I think I counted 25 of them and then nothing, just humidity.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/02/2013 08:55

Storm chances more general and toward the east as well on GFS and ACC this morning. EC has a few days of storm chance on eastern ranges now. It also has a long lasting rain event inland NSW and QLD. Will be quite humid here in the SE as the Ant mentioned a little while back if that sets up.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/02/2013 18:58

After the models discounted an easterly dip forming over NSW this coming week, our local forecast is for E to SE weather for the whole outlook (4 days) - so if one forms or not, we down here in Gippy probably wouldnt notice any difference!!

An overcast day here, good for golfing, only circa 24C and light breezes.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/02/2013 18:06

Looking at the radar and satelite its looks like storms and moisture are building along the murry region and NSW above Swanhill. Can someone tell me are these going to travel along the river or will they push into Vic and travel in a South easterly direction. I am sure those in the Northern Country have their fingers crossed.
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/02/2013 20:44

ABC2 Weather last night stated the trough forming would pull moist air down from the north and the interior. BOM forecast explorer shows a chance of TS for most of Victoria north, east and west of the Melburbia forcefield for tomorrow arvo an evening. I don't know enough to offer a considered opinion of my own smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/02/2013 21:10

Just scanning the models "out there" - if I'm seeing things right:

1. A spot of rain here or there is still likely on any day in some part of Vic over next week

2. A weird cyclone or maybe named and ECL will track down just off the E coast from Bundy to Nowra in the next 8 days (at this stage graxing the coast (so wind/waves only)

3. Extreme 40+ temps for Vic will not happen again till next year
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/02/2013 23:13

Not sure about that low, it seems to be heading out to the SE before it makes it down past Sydney, one to watch anyway. Looks like it could bring a fair chunk of moisture onshore at least for northern NSW. The rest I'm seeing what you are.

Next Sat/Sun might be interesting, a deep windy trough forming over the SW and SA which might make things hot and could have some interesting weather around it but probably not of much interest to anyone except Blackakubra unless the timing and positions change.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/02/2013 18:12

The passing of another 2 days and CMC thinks the "weird cyclone" might in fact track SW before it makes it down past Sydney.....



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/02/2013 19:10

ECL Petros, highly doubt it will move that way though. Can you try and enlarge that picture a bit though? Bit hard to see.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/02/2013 21:19

Are you a betting man Ant?.... try this later version of CMC, hopefully a bit larger for you...


Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/02/2013 22:36

I will bet that a bigger event will happen early next week, and that the ECL won't have a major effect on central Vic at least.
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/02/2013 13:42

Next week looks to be interesting particularly for NSW.
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/02/2013 17:11

Well here i am looking at the forecast for Albury.Another 7 days of temps over 30C and no rain to speak of.So far since Nov 1st 2012 we've had the grand rain total of 82mm (average total for the 4 months 215mm).I was hoping to get a bit of a spin off from that low off the coast of NSW but does'nt look like happening.C'mon huey it's about our turn now.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/02/2013 21:41

The potential for exceptionaly dry hot weather for Vic for the remainder of this summer, is in my opinion over.

Looking out past this damp drizzly period, I can only see the potential for a potentially fire dousing event for Vic into the later part of next week.

If anyone else agrees, please start a new thread to log it against!

GFS says.....


Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/02/2013 22:24

Let's just wait until the current thread is over Petros..
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/02/2013 22:33

Do you mean this thread is intended to blanket into later next week Ant?
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/02/2013 23:39

I think the thread currently will cover up to Wednesday where it will be humid and thundery, and after that we'll see if the models are still going for a cut-off type event. It's just because EC doesn't have much more after Wednesday so i'm a little wary this far out to start a thread.
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/02/2013 07:12

Thanks for uploading an interesting looking map, Petros.
I am hoping against hope that the MJO returning and therefore a decent monsoon will influence our coming weather. The monsoon has been absent for some time and resulted in our weather pattern being what it is at the moment, hot, humid and some very dry patches all around the country. It would be nice to think that the GFS scenario for Fri 1st March could actually happen. A cyclone forming in the NW of Oz often puts a lid on anything developing elsewhere. It will be a day to day proposition of watch and wait till maybe Monday to see what eventuates.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/02/2013 09:25

Yep Gabby, we will just have to wait patiently and watch for a NW cloudband to wend its way into Vic. Perhaps later next week may bring one, however this mornings models are split 50/50 on the prospects.
Posted by: _Johnno_

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/02/2013 13:09

GFS has retreated after Wednesday it has lost the low but guess what EC is back onto it... Thats Models for ya
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/02/2013 19:09

This arvo's model runs provide a semi-consensus for a cut off low to linger over Vic's E circa next Thursday. So I'll start a thread to cover this possible prospect.
Posted by: vjknight

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/03/2013 07:20

the BOM forecast suggests another fine & warm week ahead - hopefully without the humidity.

any models suggesting what is happening beyond that ?
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/03/2013 21:18

A couple hinting at humid storminess from late week into the weekend
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/03/2013 22:14

Yep. Indian Summer next week, and only prolonged drizzly stuff for a few days after it.

At this stage.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/03/2013 10:08

ACC and EC still going for a good stormy episode but over the far west of the state and into SA towards end of next week.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/03/2013 18:04

EC suggests storms could be near NW of state by late Wednesday night, ACC and EC both still have stormy period at end of week. Another few runs and I mght start to get my hopes up (of course they already are) blush
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/03/2013 18:37

GFS still not keen.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/03/2013 18:51

Itll catch on around Thursday... wink

Edit: But seriously, CMC even has storms out west by Friday pm so definitely something in the mix at this stage (last 3 words real relevant)
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/03/2013 19:08

Just had a look, GFS Ensemble has storms Sunday and Monday. Cannot get NOGAPS working on any of the sites I see it on, anyone got a link that works atm?
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/03/2013 08:39

LOL, at getting hopes up off models this far out. 12z run has GFS showing some interest and at same time is first run that EC has "jumped off". Think I'll try and not look till Tuesday or Wednesday...
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/03/2013 17:40

My weather-station says rain and looks like heaps of humid air reaching S/SW NSW
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/03/2013 21:04

hmm, well lets all stay alert for the chance of a storm in Vic late next week.

Meanwhile we can enjoy the warm spell given that most have had a bit of decent rain last week.

No doubt everyone is looking out into the "extremeties' in the hope of followup rain wink
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/03/2013 07:49

Hee hee, now there has been some rain I just want a storm, a decent one, either at home or within driving distance on the weekend.Is it asking to much? Even though I said I wouldnt look, I did, its still half a chance.
Posted by: Vlasta

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/03/2013 16:20

Didnt you keep that site I posted Ruckle ? There NOGAPS not updating either LOL . But there you have all models to compare charts at once . Plus heaps of other informations .
http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/e...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/03/2013 17:49

I just want it to get cold again haha.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/03/2013 18:25

Some very " icky" weather coming, still think the west is going to get a few chances at storms in upcoming period as well as random points on the ranges.

Yes Vlasta I have that link and it still has not got NOGAPS firing up.
Posted by: Moz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/03/2013 19:05

Really? Am loving this weather, being able to sit outside comfortably at night under the stars is a wonderful feeling
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/03/2013 20:17

ACCESS clearly sees something the other models don't.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/03/2013 07:53

12z run has GFS and EC seeing the same thing. Random storm activity around the state but mostly west and ranges from possibly even tomorrow onto the weekend, then a clear out and just hot next week.
Posted by: Thunder Front

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/03/2013 14:02

Might have some humidity next week.....
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/03/2013 16:45

GFS now sees storms.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/03/2013 19:02

Welcome JW - great to have another poster smile

Was talking to our Sale BOM office this arvo, storms, with the info available today only look like a possibility on the ranges N of Gippy (and shouldnt track S) at the end of the week. Only talking about here in central N gippy.

Interesting to see GFS and ACCG yo-yoing the mooted cyclone to form off N Qld in coming days to head towards the Solomons and then retreat back to touch land at Mackay - something to watch (but unsure about future influence on Vic weather either way).

There's really not much "out there" for us Vics in the 7 day outlook if I'm reading the runes right?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/03/2013 21:06

Well Vic looks to remain in a NE'ly regime, so slightly humid in the 7 day outlook I think.

Just cant pick out an event worth writing about in todays models runs so for me, the thing to watch is whether the N QLD cyclone to form tomorrow retragrades to make landfall circa Mackay as some (not all) models moot.
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/03/2013 20:12

ACCESS G suggesting a tropical dip trough close to VIC around the Saturday 16th March. Suggesting some moderate rain and no doubt a good event for storm chasers if moisture profile comes off.
However a bit bemused at reports on the WZ snow thread the NSW Thredbo gets snow at 1900m on that same weekend?
What the??

So is that going to be a tropical trough or a cold westerly belt trough.Maybe l have got the dates mixed up?
Something wrong here?

Also of note: remnants OF TC SANDY AND WHAT COULD BE TC Tim ARE ALSO SEEN ON THIS SYNOPTIC.



SOURCE
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/03/2013 22:12

You've got it wrong Crikey... the weatherzone ACCESS charts paint a much clearer picture that shows a cold-pool creating a cut-off low. No remanants of TC sandy either. Never heard of TC Sandy? Or Tim? Well Tim is the new one anyway
Posted by: Vlasta

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/03/2013 23:09

LOL Ant , Crikey notes both cyclones .

Never mind , I can confirm snow chances even at Mt Hotham , it snowed after last heatwave at Mt Baw Baw too , never to be mentioned by BOM and others . For them its weather , heatwaves are global warming .
No doubt it will be subzero , precipitation is the question .
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/03/2013 18:31

Originally Posted By: TheAnt
You've got it wrong Crikey... the weatherzone ACCESS charts paint a much clearer picture that shows a cold-pool creating a cut-off low. No remanants of TC sandy either. Never heard of TC Sandy? Or Tim? Well Tim is the new one anyway


Hmm Ant, I suggest you re-read exactly what Crikey wrote.


As for the weather on Sat coming, as Crikey has shown - there is some coming! Maybe not all that wet but a wintery blast from the south if I'm reading things right.

Heres\s CMCs take on it at this stage, we have cold air looming up from the SW into Vic, to interact with the remnants of TC Sandra, the outplay still uncertain, but sure to produce strong southerly winds over most of Vics S coast.


Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/03/2013 19:19

Originally Posted By: Petros
Originally Posted By: TheAnt
You've got it wrong Crikey... the weatherzone ACCESS charts paint a much clearer picture that shows a cold-pool creating a cut-off low. No remanants of TC sandy either. Never heard of TC Sandy? Or Tim? Well Tim is the new one anyway


Hmm Ant, I suggest you re-read exactly what Crikey wrote.


As for the weather on Sat coming, as Crikey has shown - there is some coming! Maybe not all that wet but a wintery blast from the south if I'm reading things right.

Heres\s CMCs take on it at this stage, we have cold air looming up from the SW into Vic, to interact with the remnants of TC Sandra, the outplay still uncertain, but sure to produce strong southerly winds over most of Vics S coast.

I think you should re-read it again wink It most certainly isn't a tropical event and it won't be good for stormchasing, which is why I said what Crikey said wasn't right.
Unless you're talking about the Cyclone comment?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/03/2013 19:06

Going back over my own records of March hot spells (since '86) - I found that long sequences of 30C+ breaks early in March are often followed by (circa 60% of the circa 6 times I identified) a slow build-up to one last hot "swan-song" day circa 16-20 March.

I wonder if it will happen again?



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
[edit] - problems with imageshack link working
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/03/2013 19:16



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

.... and where did I develop my "circa" word fixation..? (must have something to do with me being grumpy with a crook back wink ).
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/03/2013 22:56

Just as an aside, I am loving the symmetry of those highs.

What happens after the swan song Petros?
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/03/2013 15:48

Unlikely given the models currently (didn't look at ACCESS), will still see a few hot days though.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/03/2013 22:15

Originally Posted By: TheAnt
Unlikely given the models currently (didn't look at ACCESS), will still see a few hot days though.


One hot day is unlikely, but we "will still see a few hot days though"..... how can I respond to that!!!!
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/03/2013 20:47

This scenario for this thursday!! Looks Dynamic!!
oooly DoooLY




Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/03/2013 22:03

Maybe this link will work. RE: Weather Event this thursday . VIC



Whoops! Like petros Having issues with Image shack.

I used 'direct link code' petros and inserted into WZ" enter an image" ...rather than using the forum code from image shack
Maybe this will work ? Wow. Quite dynamic!
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/03/2013 22:59

Originally Posted By: Petros
Originally Posted By: TheAnt
Unlikely given the models currently (didn't look at ACCESS), will still see a few hot days though.


One hot day is unlikely, but we "will still see a few hot days though"..... how can I respond to that!!!!

Because there are still days of 30+ in April? lol
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/03/2013 20:28

Thanks for the posts Crikey, Thursday WILL be blustery as you have warned us!!

Looking out into the runes, the far-end of AccG moots an inclement start to Easter.... Well it IS the season for this stuff so worth watching as it unfolds!!! - I'd love someone to start an "Easter" thread! smile



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/03/2013 21:40

... image shack problems again...


Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/03/2013 22:23

What was wrong with the first one? smile
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/03/2013 17:44

So a couple of hot days and now we're in a transitional phase, winter couldn't come sooner!!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/04/2013 18:45

After this present coastal snotty cold westerly drizzle clears tomorrow, the models show to me that no weather of note (other than a sunny warm weekend to come) will arrive till late next week - in the form of a decent SW'ly change?
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/04/2013 15:40

GFS going for some storms over the weekend.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/04/2013 18:58

Yep Ant, shows up now on BOM 4 day during Sunday (troughline/front passing S of Vic):
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/04/2013 13:38

Looks like just warm weather pattern until next week as wont be hot as there is no strong heat in outback as cool down
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/04/2013 17:22

The BOM reckons Ant was onto something stormwise for this weekend - this is for Gippsland issued this arvo:

Saturday 6 AprilMostly sunny. Areas of morning fog. Isolated showers and the chance of thunderstorms over the ranges in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming northeast to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h in the early afternoon then becoming light in the late evening. Overnight temperatures falling to between 7 and 11 with daytime temperatures reaching 20 to 25.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/04/2013 19:56

I think only thing that's stopping storms on the weekend is steering winds, which will see them predominently stuck on the ranges. Tuesday looks the best day before a potential cut-off that now ACCESS and GFS are mooting at.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/04/2013 22:44

Some weak wannabe tower tried up there this arvo, but I will be surprised if we can see any lightning up there over the weekend.

We just have to be patient and wait for the autumn break (after the false one early March).
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/04/2013 23:12

Very very wishy-washy amongst the models.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/04/2013 17:52

Looks like still summer pattern as wind keep flowing NE/E directional for a while as high pressure still working hard to block SW/W flow down south ocean...Well the South Pole day light getting shorter to be more cold and let low pressure get stronger to kick high pressure upward...
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/04/2013 18:46

April is our cut-off low/East Coast Low season out Gippsland way, so naturally I'm drawn to prospects such as this "way-out-there" scenario by AccG. If GFS starts to agree over the next 3 days, something might come of this. "Tis the season"....
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/04/2013 18:42

Re next weeks rain possibilities, GFS can now "see" the scenario posted above.
But AccG at this stage dosent create an ECL out of it. But worth watching!!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/04/2013 19:09

Quiet about on the Vic Forum. Theres not much weather about to get us all typing.

The setup for early next week is looking less interesting - but its still a change! - and we really do need rain (even 5mm) out this way.

So I persist with next weeks progs...
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/04/2013 17:48

The system next week to follow the warm weekend looks to be mature before it hits Vic. At this stage lookings like a low pressure system grazing us to the S. Bummer, but still time to get wetter (but also drier).
Posted by: DVC

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/04/2013 14:02

Just amazing, a 947hp low just south of the bight, huge thing SWW for Tas. The lowest pressure for the 1987 Great Storm in UK at the same latitude was 953!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/04/2013 19:07

... and maybe that low in the roaring 40's is whats been shunting our models all about...
next Tuesday leaving Vic more influenced by high(er) pressure:
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/05/2013 18:39

Geez its a struggle to post something interesting "out there" for Vic this Autumn!

Next chance of rain (> say 3mm) looks to be this (way out there, with no other model consensus yet)....
Posted by: Thunder Front

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/05/2013 14:46

Wind is gusting here..... pretty strong now.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/05/2013 23:08

21C here at 5pm! - not any wind then, but is is starting to rattle the wind chimes out there now.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/05/2013 18:58

Jeez its still a bleak outlook (rainwise) for Vic in the 7 - 10 day forecasts.

Models show a change and southerly damp push into S Vic Sunday/Sunday night into Monday. At this stage, cold but no substantial rain - guess we have to hope to sit under a storm as the cold front crosses?
Posted by: Lucy

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/05/2013 09:04

Couldn't agree more, Petros, certainly dry, we are on tank water here, and have never bought water in May in the last 30 years, but yes you guessed it we succumbed and bought a small load last week. We have 20000 gallon capacity, and this time last year had been overflowing for 6 weeks already!!!!!
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/05/2013 12:25

Nice looking rain band in the NE, but just managing to skirt around us.
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/05/2013 16:56

September-April was the 4th driest on record for Victoria. The three years ahead of it all went wet in May, so anything significantly below normal in May 2013 would result in a September-May record.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/05/2013 09:23

Interesting feature picked up by CMC initially but now showing in various degrees on all models. Chunk of moisture floating across the NW coast of tropical origin that may or may not be a feature of our weather beyond a week. Maybe nothing, maybe NSW/SA event but something possible.
See if the models stick with it. In the meantime a nice little system Sunday onwards next week that probably needs its own thread.
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/05/2013 18:17

The BOM WATL combined model 8 day rain forecast looks promising anyway RUCKLE

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp?model=amnt&date=2007011912&state=vic&district=

IN Maldon/dunolly area. I can tell you the dry situation is chronic.
There has been no significant frequent rain/showers for well over 12 months now. Cairn curran reservoir has dropped heaps, bells swamp on the Dunolly / Eddington rd is now empty after being full 12 months ago
Many of the smaller dams are dry and you see locals regularly going to the down pipe to collect water for their homes., us included.

The roos are out and about looking for water and have become quite game coming right up to he house to drink from bowls and look for something green
The farmer behind is still hand feeding in may! with lambing and some are having to cart water in for cattle in some western parts.

I liked the look of the WATL forecast.
It took me by surprise the amount of color WATL had colored in as rainfall on the OZ map.

There is lots of moisture in this map below

I see as you say some of that is from a tropical; low in the N/w WA
and there is also some from a couple of troughs down south as well.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/
I am very excited at the prospect of 15mm for our area.
Especial since we have had nothing that has been regular for Soooo long

I hope this is a sign of a wet signature emerging!!?

IOD maybe going negative as is being discussed in the ENSO thread
Cross fingers for the SAM and SOI to change as well?

Very warm here today for May.. No sign of any significant frosts here as yet. Indian summer ..Indian autumn..

Image shack appears to be offline atm so the image posted here may not upload tonight.
You can see yourself from the WATL link
The direct link to WATL which may update as it is hotlinked Now isn't that a sight for sore eyes!
HOPE that pattern holds!!




Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/05/2013 19:02

Originally Posted By: crikey


Very warm here today for May.. No sign of any significant frosts here as yet. Indian summer ..Indian autumn..



Very warm (for the time of year here today) smile

We have had 3 mornings where frost has formed on the car windows in the morning here so far this autumn (but that happens < +1.5C "official min temp" in my experience).

Hope your area does accumulate that inch over the next week Crikey. Also hope my area exceeds the mooted 5mm for same period wink .
Posted by: thunderunder

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/05/2013 18:08

Hey all, I have been hovering around, just not much to talk about other then glorious weather, but boring.
Looks like some interesting weather to come for inland Vic. Finally maybe an autumn break. Hubby has bean waiting to sow, so hopefully this may put a little bit of moisture into the gorund. Anyway models are varying, Access G is looking the most excited, GFS not as excited. Below average rainfall for this year so far, tanks are looking grim, so woulod love to see an inch, but maybe wishful thinking. Cannot quit work out the exact system to come, however would love someone to start a thread.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/05/2013 20:14

TU - you are well creditialled to start a thread anytime as the rest of us know.

A bottler of a day would have been had here today if it WASNT SO SMOKEY!!! The burn offs (even though not at the scale they were a month ago) today interracted with the morning fog to leave an inversion in the Latrobe Valley all day.

Dropping down off the highway E of Rosedale late this arvo heading across the Nambrock Plains put us into smoke haze thick enough to think it was the January inferno all over again out this way!. I bet there was no complaints from fishermen down Port Albert to Lakes Entrance though!

Looking forward for another mild calm day tomorrow to have a tilt at the golf club monthly medal smile

[edit] - sorry all that post should have been posted in the daily weather thread.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/05/2013 20:25

Back on topic after another unsuccessful battle with imageshack, so via PBucket, heres AccG's look at the pending change.

Some Vic regions may get an INCH!!! Heres hoping and good luck to all - its been a month since a drop like this (may turn out to be) has been "out there" in the runes....
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/06/2013 18:34

Not much significant rain-wise in the outlook.... maybe the chance of a rain event pushed into the Vic NE ranges from the Albury side mid next week(not good for snow wanters). But good for the increasingly healthy levels in Dartmouth Dam.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/06/2013 19:57

Pretty decent front for areas predominantly south of the divide and say west of centre this Thursday night (ish) I thought.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/06/2013 18:22

Definitely Ruckle. Just looking "out there" for a circa 10mm+ event for any location in Vic.

Hopefully Thursday night provides some decent rain for SW Vic.

"Out there" - not much on offer.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/06/2013 22:09

Couple of gran daddy high pressure snore a thons possible..
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/06/2013 18:39

This afternoons runs show Maffra may tally 5mm from tonights change. Far better than what I expected (if we get it).

Extended outlook still looks bleak rainfallwise.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/06/2013 08:01

Wonderful outlook on 12z run of EC, plus current event has certainly delivered, particularly in the SW and some SC areas.
Posted by: DVC

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/06/2013 14:48

hey i picked up another 17.4! david @ q
Posted by: Tin Roof

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/06/2013 16:35

38mm in Portland till 9am this morning, great listening to the rain all night on the tin roof.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/06/2013 17:47

Great stuff TR, 13.2mm here. EC continues with a second wet run in a row and GFS has now joined that party. So we could be starting a thread by the end of this weekend if these predictions keep coming.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/06/2013 18:29

Looks to be a couple of very W'ly windy days coming for Vic's South from next Sun pm to Tues pm!
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/06/2013 18:55

ACCESS G suggesting a N west in-feed combining with a cold front and colder westerly wind belt next Wednesday the 3rd july
( T + 156 hrs)

Quite a southern Victorian impact from this forecast for the 3rd.
I was thinking the combined moisture and higher dew points from the Indian ocean should be quite a dynamic set up with interaction with the colder westerly belt.

A stormy front maybe on the cards? west/east line of storms across the southern VIC maybe

The trajectory of the N/west infeed may provide a longer period of more widespread rainfall for the southern quadrant of OZ generally.

Highly speculative of course.

Here's the surface setup



source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/06/2013 20:57

Looks like a classic winters SW change for S Vic Crikey!
Posted by: Jilly

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/06/2013 16:22

Had a race meeting here at warrnambool today, absolutely chucked it down,5ml I think, track was downgraded to a heavy 9 ,yet at home, 5ks north, blue sunny skies! And still feeding out hay.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/07/2013 20:30

Windy cold weather with showers setting in for Vic's S - Thursday night/Friday.
Posted by: DVC

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/07/2013 09:37

Has a nice 2.8mm in the gauge this morning unexpected! dvc
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/07/2013 18:54

Still looking windy cold weather with showers setting in for Vic's S - Thursday night/Friday, then no notable "weather" in the 5-7 day outlook after that!
Sad start to Vic's snow season for sure.
Posted by: Thunder Front

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/07/2013 12:25

BOM had issue a warning!

Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds
for people in the North Central, North East, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
Issued at 11:35 am EST on Wednesday 3 July 2013.
Weather Situation
A cold front will approach western Victoria tonight and then slip southeastwards across Bass Strait early Thursday. A second and stronger cold front will enter the west of the State later Thursday afternoon.

Damaging winds around 60- 80 km/h with peak gusts of 120 km/h are forecast for elevated parts of the North Central, North East, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts. Winds of 50-70 km/h with peak gusts to 90-100 km/h are expected more widespread over low regions. Winds will strengthen overnight with the strongest winds expected Thursday afternoon.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
Keep clear of fallen power lines.
Posted by: stormygirl

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/07/2013 15:01

I'm surprised there isn't a thread for the upcoming cold front. The Bureau certainly have put out an interesting thunderstorm forecast...

Quote:
Issued at 9:42 am Thursday, 4 July 2013,
Valid until midnight on Thursday, 4 July 2013.
A cold front is likely to trigger some thunderstorm activity - starting in the southwest coast but extending further inland and eastwards to reach the Central district and West and South Gippsland late today and tonight. A combination of very strong backing winds with height and modest buoyancy may be sufficient to promote rotation in storms and a risk of brief tornadoes in storms nearer the coast. Regardless of this, very strong winds aloft will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts with any storms or heavy showers which develop. Hail is likely with storms although it is likely to be small (1cm or less in diameter).


It's not often you see mention of the 'T' word.
Posted by: Jilly

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/07/2013 15:33

Thunder!!!

Black as the ace of spades, and not a breath of wind.

More thunder!!
Posted by: DVC

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/07/2013 11:35

I found this very interesting in the BoM June Summary for Victoria, it is something i have observed over quite a few years as an amateur and I feel a bit vindicated to see it:

"Over southeastern Australia, June was unusual in that on every day between the 12th and the 26th, the prevailing synoptic type was one associated with flow from the east - initially, a rain bearing east coast low followed by a 'frosty' anticyclone (usually, westerly flow predominates during June)**.

**Consistent with the overall strengthening and southward shift of the subtropical ridge that has been observed in recent decades - a feature that has also been predicted by global climate models."

I sense that the patterns that I recall have shifted around 400k southwards, no research or evidence other than what I perceive. would love to find my 1970 geography textbook with its "text book" weather patterns for Australia ...

David @ Kew
Posted by: Steve777

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/07/2013 08:51

The issue of the high pressure belt apparently retreating South was discussed recently on the following page in the 'NSW/ACT day to day weather' thread:

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1202450/584

Originally Posted By: Steve777
This is what HSC textbooks say is a typical Winter weather map over Australia (scroll down to figure 6).

http://hsc.csu.edu.au/primary_ind/prim_ind_240/compulsory/AHCWRK201A/3264/weather_patterns.htm

It shows high pressure over Central Australia or outback Queensland with plenty of room for fronts to sweep across the SE and SW of the continent. We haven't seen anything like this in 2013 so far and it has been uncommon in recent years. These days it is more common for the high pressure systems to hug the South of the continent then often as not slither away (or maybe dive) to the South East when they hit Victoria, with fronts clipping the far SW and SE or missing the continent altogether. So I think the patterns have changed. For all I know it may change back in the future. Who knows? But if patterns in recent years were typical then the map in the text book would be different.

This is also borne out by the long term decrease in Winter rainfall in the 'Mediterranean' climate belt of WA and the long drought in SA and Vic in the 2000's.
Posted by: DVC

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/07/2013 12:38

Thank you! Really appreciated seeing that.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/07/2013 18:06

Looming up behind the low pressure system currently affecting Adelaide and Vic's W tonight (...but progged to slip to Vic's S and provide little rain for Vic) - a follow-up low looks to retain enough oomph to provide a bit more "weather" next week. Worth watching I reckon....



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/07/2013 21:17

... and still on after todays model runs.
Posted by: Tin Roof

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/07/2013 08:19

12mm overnight in Portland, with more to come. Mt Gambier radar looking good. Currently a very warm 11C.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/07/2013 17:59

Looks like a decent cold front to cross Vic Sat/Sun 27-28th July.

A large cut-off low pressue complex will peak in the bight (similar to the birth of these current evolving cold weather event), during the week and drag a little Indian ocean moisture from just S of Pt Headland ahead of it.

Should be mild windy NW Fri-early Saturday ahead of a fast moving cold front. We might all see (hear?) a brief bit of thunder again.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/07/2013 18:52

Originally Posted By: Petros
Looks like a decent cold front to cross Vic Sat/Sun 27-28th July.

A large cut-off low pressue complex will peak in the bight (similar to the birth of these current evolving cold weather event), during the week and drag a little Indian ocean moisture from just S of Pt Headland ahead of it.

Should be mild windy NW Fri-early Saturday ahead of a fast moving cold front. We might all see (hear?) a brief bit of thunder again.

Now looks more a Sunday into Monday change, strong NW'lies ahead ot it.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/07/2013 19:03

.. and we may see warmish temps with the N'ly ahead of Sundays change?
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/07/2013 19:14

Looks pretty mild, even on Saturday particularly south of the divide with a little bit of downslope.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/07/2013 18:14

BOM predicts temps of 16, 17, 17 & 18 over the next few days for Gippsland - not as warm as I was thinking may have been the case in my post yesterday.

BOM-predicted 5mm(ish) rain in this area would be perfect after 2 windy days - weather will dry out the puddles and keep the new seasons grass happy, most out this way are looking for a big spring looming milk production-wise. And milk prices are looking promising, so our dairy farmers will hopefully have a good year for a change, which benefits all of us living in the region from the flow on effect.

Not much in the outlook mid-late next week after this change has run its course. Snow season looking a bit ratty now?
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/07/2013 18:59

BOM predicted 15 for today and it was 12 so we should keep that in mind too, hee hee. Saturday looks warm though.
Posted by: Darkhazord

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/07/2013 09:08

Somehow this morning I picked up 1.5mm of rain...

And no, my visiting magpies did not poop into my rain gauge poke

(I feed these local birds mince meat most mornings, in return they do not swoop me when I go out onto the street while they are nesting)
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/07/2013 20:22

Lovely mostly sunny day here after a cool but not-frsty start. 16C.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/07/2013 20:43

None of the WZ models show any weather of interest (to me) in the 5-10 day outlook. Most areas in Vic look to max out at circa 7.5mm rain in this outlook.

Maybe we should focus on the max NW'ly wind gusts recorded tomorrow?
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/07/2013 23:10

0.7mm here at home this morning. Couple of fronts skimming by this week or so, hint of a few impacting later in the week but only really sth central and SW areas. Could be a reasonable drop in NE high country Sunday or Monday though???
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/07/2013 18:11

Not that warm after all, 13.8 at home. Nice circulation in the bight atm. Still looks a chance of some rain in the NE Sunday into Monday and a cold pool blasting through into next weekend
Posted by: DVC

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/07/2013 09:28

got a nice 6 mm here @ q my winter totals really good this year. david
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/07/2013 09:37

Same here David, and the Age told me it would never rain again. 5.3mm yesterday evening.
Posted by: DVC

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/07/2013 14:44

Good one! Im20 pc up on last junandjuly so happy with that . I also love this ar os sat pic sequence showkng a consistent march across 40 deg south of five systems!
Posted by: DVC

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/07/2013 11:57

and another 2.4 mm overnight from those showers.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/07/2013 17:51

Only 0.3mm this side of town. Another ridiculous maximum in the city today...below 15 here at home and the all the other metro sites (Avalon not a metro site is it?)

Possible cold not looking as cold Friday and Saturday, EC has a follow up front whizzing along Saturday after Fridays one that might keep the precip going.

Looks like a wild westerly pattern after that, going to be pretty warm in NSW coastal areas and probably Gippsland you'd think. Should be some embedded fronts to give southern and coastal areas a shower chance every second day or so.

Meanwhile frosty tonight, will be a bit of an adjustment after the mild nights in the last few days.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/07/2013 19:32

Heard we had 3mm rain here in Maffra over the past couple of days. Mines still brewing soup in the gauge, been dark when I've been home this week so havent emptied it yet.

No comment on the weekends weather - because Ruckle has nailed it as usual.

Winds this time of year = no frosts (good for the morning commute) = hard golf (bad for Petros's handicap).
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/07/2013 14:20

im heading down to ole melbourne town tonight. was hoping to get some cold weather action. looks like i missed the best of it 2 weekends ago, but i will take fridays front and rain nicely. and should be cold but mostly fine for the big game at the G on sunday evening.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/08/2013 17:38

Exciting and active kind of pattern looming, models all over the place as it looks like a fair bit about and so a few different scenario's about. Short term is tomorrows front and follow up Saturday pm. Maybe we should start a thread for that, and perhaps by Sunday models will have the following period clarified?
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/09/2013 18:04

ACCESS G indicating 2 big rain systems for the south east of OZ.
Looking spectacular atm
First system this Thursday/Friday . A 2 day event moving slowly across the state.
ACCESS suggesting a sure 20mm for Dunolly. The Mallee looks to do well

2nd system not far after on Monday 16th sept. A massive wet system a farmers joy giving rain up into west QLD and across NSW
, SA and VIC.

We could get a follow up 20mm
Making a total of 40mm in the next 7 days

THe ants here have been building hills for a few weeks.
So in expectation.. Expecting a dumping..

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/09/2013 18:32

We've got ants making mini-volcanoes here at Maffra and also at Moe I notice Sunday playing golf. I think you are onto something Crikey, and so does CMC!!


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Please consider starting a thread for the following system early next week!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/09/2013 18:19

Still excited about rain possibilities for SE Vic next week.....
[edit] - Crikey, if you think its all still a possibility, I invite you to start a thread for it smile


Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/09/2013 20:20

ACCESS G suggesting a couple of nice looking rainbands from kinks in the westerly belt this week
Around late Wednesday into morning of the 25th Thursday and late Friday the 27th September at this stage

Its spring so good chance of storms with these moist looking bands

Here is the possibility



source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/10/2013 18:13

I see that GFS has a heat low to form on the WA coast near Pt Headland Monday week. Very unusual IMO - but anyone, please correct me if I'm wrong.
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/10/2013 07:27

Interesting Petros! Warm lows are the result of intense heating and are known to form in north Western Australia. Port Hedland has had a week of very high 30's and one over 40c. It is very early in the year to have such hot weather. So a warm low, which is not unusual in itself for that part of the country, although from what I can recall they don't occur often, is unusual in my opinion for its timing. Anyone may feel free to correct me if I am wrong. We lived in Port Hedland over ten years ago now and the memories are a little dim. They could be in for some very nice thunderstorms.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/10/2013 18:45

Who better than an ex resident to comment! Thanks Gabby smile I had an inkling it (would/may) be a bit unsual for this time of the year if it comes to play.
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/10/2013 11:38

having a look at the BSCH forcast and I'm hoping next monday pays off.... Even considering a chase if I can gather the funds for fuel. Wishful thinking says it remains the same but it is a week out.

I sure hope it is a sign for things to come.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/10/2013 12:49

Originally Posted By: dawoodman
having a look at the BSCH forcast and I'm hoping next monday pays off.... Even considering a chase if I can gather the funds for fuel. Wishful thinking says it remains the same but it is a week out.

I sure hope it is a sign for things to come.


I sure do hope so too, and hopefully (after checking the latest seven-day synoptic pattern for Weatherzone) there'll be another round of severe thunderstorm action in store for Victoria (and into South Australia) later that week, and into the weekend of October 26-27. It would be awesome if it could be timed for my trip to Adelaide during that weekend, even though I won't be able to chase, due to time constraints as I have a family reunion there that weekend and because I haven't got my own set of wheels, not to mention my own license poke I'm hitching a ride with some relatives on the way there and returning to Melbourne by air... hey that rhymes! (I'm a poet and I didn't even know it haha) grin

But after seeing the latest synoptic chart for Sunday it looks like behind the system that's likely to impact Victoria early next week, another similar system (including inland heat, a trough, and a cold front) looks likely to be getting ready to take shape over Western Australia at the same time, and I'm watching it really carefully now in the lead-up to my trip, so fingers crossed! But in the meantime, first this current cold outbreak, then the cold front later this week, and then the possible storm outbreak for early next week! smile Still waiting for Melbourne's first 30C+ day btw...

Really hoping that the battle between Outback heat, tropical moisture, and Antarctic cold air is about to really go into overdrive now and finally, FINALLY get the Storm Season swinging into action! smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/10/2013 19:14

... and meanwhile Crikey has identified that the change overnight this Wednesday/Thursday could be more interesting than we all thought!!
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/10/2013 21:41

ACCESS has weakened the rainband tonight Petros for Wednesday night Thursday .

Suggesting curently for southern coastal areas only.
BUT
The gradient winds (1km) . Indicating a very sharp wind change line at 1km altitude
Looks like a very interesting feature so a chance of a storm line perhaps ( dry storms maybe?)
Not sure.. But find this feature posted below interesting



Tomorrows forecast should confirm things a bit more hopefully
Looks like its a cold front with some cold airmass crossing VIC behind the change on Thursday.
Some more snow for the alps once again this week

5mm of snow for Mt buller in the past 12 hrs. Only minus 1.9 deg c there now
Melbourne had wind chill of 5 deg c l believe as noted on weather news tonight
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/10/2013 19:34

The latest Thursday forecast for my area mentions the chance of thunder:

Thursday 17 OctoberCloudy. Showers, becoming less widespread during the evening. Snow showers above 1100 metres. The chance of hail and thunder with gusty winds from the late morning. Winds northwesterly 35 to 50 km/h tending westerly 35 to 55 km/h before dawn. Overnight temperatures falling to between 7 and 10 with daytime temperatures reaching between 12 and 18.
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/10/2013 17:51

BSCH 00z run has an interesting forecast for the 30th and 31st of october..... way to far out to call anything, but I'll keep a watch on it, after the recent lack of storms in melbourne, it doesn't take much to get me excited grin
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/10/2013 17:57

Originally Posted By: dawoodman
BSCH 00z run has an interesting forecast for the 30th and 31st of october..... way to far out to call anything, but I'll keep a watch on it, after the recent lack of storms in melbourne, it doesn't take much to get me excited grin


Same here Dawoodman, it looks intense but still too early to know for certain at this stage but I'm monitoring it closely too and hope it comes off, especially for the Melbourne area! smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/10/2013 18:55

This is probably what you blokes are referring to?:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us


Start a thread! It dosent matter if the system doesnt eventuate, with an active thread it give us all a chance to learn the skill of the various models and learn from the posts of others.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/10/2013 19:29

Monday 28th looks more interesting in that its been hinted at on a few models for a few runs and looks pretty good right now.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/10/2013 19:34

Looking out to early next week, all models moot light rain to fall around the state, but CMC stands alone with significant rainfalls in Central S and E of the state Monday into Tuesday.

Any comments?



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/10/2013 11:34

Ensembles have been hinting at the chance of warm anomalies spreading across by the start of November... although the probabilities are currently somewhat higher over western/inland parts of SE Australia (and parts of SA and WA) and more borderline over far southern & eastern parts of SE Oz.

Here's the current bias-corrected suggestion from NAEFS for temp anomaly probabilities averaged over the first week of Nov:

Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/10/2013 21:37

Petros said.. 'Any comments"
If your post of CMC came off petros we here would get 30-40mm!!
ACCESS giving the west quadrant some rain on Monday as a surface low emerges from a northerly dip with no infeed. with drizzle for the rest of VIC..Could be interesting petros with some surprises.
How about a thread for this event. Two days . Monday/Tuesday?
CMC would be the jackpot for us!!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/10/2013 18:45

... and as things go Crickey, CMC now thinks more towards this outcome:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Over the past couple of days I was hoping for a follow up to our Gippsland 18mm last week, but we may have to wait a little longer it seems.

Any comment on the lack of Victorian storms since we are now well into the 2013 Spring?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/10/2013 18:49

If it makes you feel better Petros, Brisbane and Sydney have been similar re low storm count so far this season.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/10/2013 19:00

Acknowledged Ken, but feeling no better wink
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/10/2013 09:35

I'm feeling bumed out since I went home last summer and only intercepted 3 or 4 storms which were fairly weak on top of a really quiet cyclone season and I come down here and there is nothing. I'd say that the cloud cover is inhibiting most of our chances and I reackon thats why we didn't see a storm last week. We need a good batch of warm days to be mixed with a low coming in from the west.

We need the sun to work poke
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/10/2013 21:08

Petros said
"Any comment on the lack of Victorian storms since we are now well into the 2013 Spring?

Maybe low temperatures for southern parts October in VIC. Only had one +30 deg c day here. and where it has been warmer it has been drier..ie. Mildura

I think in QLD / NSW it has been dry and lacking moisture ..

and agreed with dawoodman . we have had lots of cloud cover for many of our events ..

Nothing much on the weather dial for VIC this week..
High pressure cell moving slowly over VIC until next weekend
We have a minimum of 4deg c forecast here next Wednesday
Posted by: _Johnno_

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/10/2013 00:41



Had some reasonable rain here the past week which puts October close to average after a wet September.

Next system next Saturday with a few showers, EC wants to follow it up with a stronger front sunday and colder air but other models aren't as interested.


Check out my weatherpage on facebook called Johns weather channel or JWC "like it" and follow my forecasts, weather updates, climate forecasts pictures, breaking news on it etc etc


https://www.facebook.com/JohnsWeatherChannelJwc
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/10/2013 18:43

I'm headed to Inverloch for a 3 day golf event Fri-Sun 1-3/11/13. My take on the weather for that area of Vic - is for nice sunny day Friday, mild increasingly overcast Sat then a rotten cold showery SW'ly day to finish off on Sunday. Probably snow to 1000M in parts of Vic.

GFS says:


Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/11/2013 08:34

Epic rain event progged by EC for next weekend, hinted at on other models, wait and see a few more runs.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/11/2013 08:54

Still looks like the higher chances of wetness are around eastern & perhaps southern parts. But still early days so the areas/amounts could easily change between now & then.

Here's the latest offering from the FIM model and the NCEP ensemble:

http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5542/10633428004_12ca6f7acd_b.jpg

http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5539/10619838113_3f98c051ea_z.jpg




Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/11/2013 20:03

Ec 00z run even wetter if anything than this mornings run.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/11/2013 07:56

EC now has two systems (cant see latest GFS) initial one with heaviest precip out Gippsland way and secondary one in later part of weekend more like what Kens showing above but then moving down into VIC.

All up interesting and hopefully wet Easterly pattern coming.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/11/2013 10:18

GFS looks very similar on this mornings run with a "two bites" type of set up as well.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/11/2013 18:56

Heard the BOM this arvo mentioning the possibility of high accumulated rainfall for Vics Eastern 1/3 IF.. the complex system results in a secondary low pressure system in the early part of next week.

The way I see it, it looks likely that we will be subject to an Easterly Dip situation later this week. This will drag moisture down from the NE providing handy rain on NSW fire area (Eastern side of the divide) and some wetness in Vics E.

.....Then cold air may arrive later in the weekend from the SSW to add spice to the moisture available and potentially creating a cut-off low event for Vics E.

.... naturally I'll be watching!! smile
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/11/2013 19:44

Umbrella looks a good investment for you Petros whichever scenario unfolds.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/11/2013 18:33

Looking at the latest model runs and find it interesting that GFS has mixed the two systems (late week easterly dip, followed by cut off low) into one and delayed the outcome of a significant rain impact to Vic till Tuesday?


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

CMC and AccG latests still not available as I type. Regardless, there is weather about for Vics south over the next 7 days!
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/11/2013 18:49

Pls let EC be right for next week. Cold air looming up from the SW, few days ago EC had very cold air and a sharp front. As the other models have caught up with this they have all slowed down the progress, EC now has a low forming on it and sitting over VIC and then the SE coast. Dreaming of this scenario........No other model has this so will try keep a lid on it.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/11/2013 20:14

Not clearly there now on this arvo's runs, but then again consensus is all over the shop. There's even a couple of Easterly Dip scenario's too (NE moistue infeed possibilities).

It will become clearer over the weekend, the greedy bugger in me wants hot Sun/Mon, then rain again smile
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/11/2013 00:15

Originally Posted By: Petros
Not clearly there now on this arvo's runs, but then again consensus is all over the shop. There's even a couple of Easterly Dip scenario's too (NE moistue infeed possibilities).

It will become clearer over the weekend, the greedy bugger in me wants hot Sun/Mon, then rain again smile


Haha same here Ruckle... I want the heat but I also want the rain, and I want the coming summer to pass without bushfires (I really hate hot, dry weather)... and can somebody PLEASE send some severe thunderstorm action our way?! Spring is nearly over and we haven't had any decent storm outbreaks here in Melbourne, I sure hope a stormy summer is on the cards!! frown
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/11/2013 18:25

After two easterly dip scenarios delivering rain to Vic 2 weeks in a row, whats the chance of a 3rd go at it at the end of next week, this time from a cut-off low arriving from our W if CMC's guess holds up??

Would be great if we do get some cold air from SW, the chances of the NW cloudband are high IF the system over Darwin dosent hang around and vaccum it all up over the next 4 days.

CMC:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: vjknight

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/11/2013 21:03

Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak
Haha same here Ruckle... I want the heat but I also want the rain, and I want the coming summer to pass without bushfires (I really hate hot, dry weather)... and can somebody PLEASE send some severe thunderstorm action our way?! Spring is nearly over and we haven't had any decent storm outbreaks here in Melbourne, I sure hope a stormy summer is on the cards!! frown


typically very hard to have a stormy summer and NOT have bushfires.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/11/2013 18:49

BOM forecasting circa 10mm rain tally for Vic during the Thur/Fri event this week.

Crikey has alerted to big wet in NE NSW and southern parts of Qld.

Updated models available now show 45mm (CMC) and 20mm (GFS) accumulations for central gippy, EC shows the LLC in similar location to CMC/GFS. Hard to see any less than 20mm accumulated here in Gippy from the model data currently available.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/11/2013 20:31

Originally Posted By: Petros
BOM forecasting circa 10mm rain tally for Vic during the Thur/Fri event this week.

Crikey has alerted to big wet in NE NSW and southern parts of Qld.

Updated models available now show 45mm (CMC) and 20mm (GFS) accumulations for central gippy, EC shows the LLC in similar location to CMC/GFS. Hard to see any less than 20mm accumulated here in Gippy from the model data currently available.


Any ideas how much rainfall the Melbourne area can expect? And are we likely to get storms with this system?
Posted by: _Johnno_

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/11/2013 22:34

Nope
Posted by: _Johnno_

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/11/2013 22:35

5-15mm at this stage for Melbourne models are varying though EC has little while CMC has heavy falls 25mm+ from the Wimmera to Gippsland which seems bit over the top to me


CMC accumulated rainfall between now and Saturday

http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/e...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/11/2013 11:11

Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
.... CMC has heavy falls 25mm+ from the Wimmera to Gippsland which seems bit over the top to me...


Several brief very heavy events/storms possible?
Posted by: _Johnno_

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/11/2013 11:19

Very unlikely, its not the right system to produce storms. In fact CMC has jumped off this morning no surprises there.
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/11/2013 14:06

Cheers Johnno. I should of moved to Brissy smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/11/2013 17:58

Yep, seems a bit of a waste of moist air for us in Vic.

Now expecting a total less than 10mm for next 5 days.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/12/2013 20:22

When will the next hot outbreak for Vic be???

If AccG's correct, we'll have to wait till next weekend:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us


Any other thoughts?

... and Merry Christmas all!! smile
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/12/2013 11:17

Further to Petros' post above, forecast tops of high 30s to 40s in the north and west of the state, mid to high 30s in parts of the Central, and mid 30s through the lower parts of Gippsland tomorrow.

RH minimum of 5 - 20% over most of the north, west and central parts of the state.

Winds of up to 50km/h, possibly more along parts of the coast, as the front moves through.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/?loc=VIC_FA001

The fire danger for most of the north, west and central parts will peak in the extreme to severe range during mid to late afternoon.

At this stage no TFBs declared but will be suprised if they aren't. http://cfa.vic.gov.au/warnings-restrictions/total-fire-bans-and-ratings/
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/12/2013 15:07

Updated, TFBs for tomorrow Sat 28 for Mallee, Wimmera, South West, North Country, North Central, Central and North East. Perfect day for hanging around home watching the cricket with a cool drink in hand.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/01/2014 18:39

As Thunderbob pointed out in the current thread, hot air looks to arrive in Vic next week. If its not humid (there is a wet easterly dip mooted to form around central N NSW/central S QLD for a couple of days early next week), ....then its fire we'll all need to start thinking about (also pointed out by TB).

CMC and AccG (alone) have produced the chance of a tropical low/cyclone to form up around Arnham land late next weekend. If this happens we may have an interesting break to a hot week by Friday week!?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/01/2014 13:14

Next week's heat is also showing up on the Bureau's new heatwave forecast maps (thread at http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1230201)

Output for next Sun/Mon/Tue below:

http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7359/11829389946_403f615b3b_b.jpg

Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/01/2014 18:48

Does look like a prolonged period of high heat inland. Coast looks like getting a day or two here and there of Easterlys or an all day seabreeze type set up but with a hot atmosphere that means a bit of humidity and pretty warm temps (like Melbs current Wednesday forecast)

No one watching the chance of storms up north tomorrow and possibly down as far as Melbourne Friday night/arvo?? Just a chance but still, about as interesting as its been in a few weeks
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/01/2014 16:26

Below are the latest outputs from my thunderstorm script for Fri and NAEFS for 16th to 23rd Jan suggesting some more significant heat over SE Australia, especially inland:

http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3811/11848975763_8def06810e_z.jpg
http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5510/11848615584_401e3eb93e_z.jpg



Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/01/2014 19:05

Thanks Ken, after a bit of promising convection on the ranges to my N today (no storms but), hopefully your script comes up with the goods and provides us a balmy evening with lightning to our N sector tommorrow night smile
Posted by: vjknight

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/01/2014 14:14

Originally Posted By: Loren Avis
Still hot i gather !!!!!!!!!


its too hot to gather
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/01/2014 14:20

Originally Posted By: vjknight
Originally Posted By: Loren Avis
Still hot i gather !!!!!!!!!


its too hot to gather


May even be harvest bans wink Boom tish... BOM was forecasting mid to high 20s for Melbourne most of next week last time I checked.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2014 22:27

The next outbreak of continental heat for Vic isn't obvious on any models apart from the extended GFS for 28/1 to 1/2. It's a long way out obviously but GFS made this prediction, on a similarly long range, for the heat wave just finished. Will be worth watching. I'll (fortunately/unfortunately?) be away from Vic during that time.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/01/2014 20:38

Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
The next outbreak of continental heat for Vic isn't obvious on any models apart from the extended GFS for 28/1 to 1/2. It's a long way out obviously but GFS made this prediction, on a similarly long range, for the heat wave just finished. Will be worth watching. I'll (fortunately/unfortunately?) be away from Vic during that time.


GFS has backed right off that scenario now ... there's nothing in any of the models (as far as I can see)suggesting a significant outbreak of continental heat.
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/01/2014 21:36

ACCESS has changed its mind and gives parts of SA and VIC a dumping of rain from ex WA low next Friday. Looks fabulous tonight to douse all fires in VIC and so heres hoping. I want my plants watered smile

Combines with a nice kink in the westerly belt probably from a neg AAO
Fingers crossing for a nice juicy wet event 24th jan 2014
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/01/2014 21:50

Even more interestingly, EC has jumped on board with the 00z run.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/01/2014 07:50

Models a tad more in sych this morning and not great news. Moisture from the low and front only really coming together perhaps to our east (like NSW coast) and some of the tropical moisture staying north, maybe a chance for the far NW to get some rain but yeah...hope it changes.
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/01/2014 10:52

Might be welcome for East Gippy, but I really hope it fires up across the SW and Central as well the way Access was progging the other day.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/01/2014 12:59

At this stage, both the bias-corrected NAEFS, NCEP and EC ensembles are suggesting the chance of another round of hotter than normal conditions spreading over southern SE Australia by mid next week.

NAEFS output for the period between the 27th Jan & 3rd Feb below:

http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3758/12042419104_e2a48f409a_z.jpg

Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/01/2014 13:29

I think the only major thing that could throw off the scenario in the above post is if a TC or its remains comes south where it's not expected.
Posted by: KevD

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/01/2014 13:34

And can assume from the temp profile that there will be another cyclone across NW WA at the same time (hence the higher temps in the south east?) Worrying for fires with everything dried off in last heatwave frown
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/01/2014 14:26

I look at that map and think, yikes - colder than normal in January in Siberia!
Posted by: HumphreyBear

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/01/2014 16:44

Originally Posted By: Ruckle
I look at that map and think, yikes - colder than normal in January in Siberia!

I'd think the Yakutians would look at that map and think the same thing re. SE Australia...

At this stage the upcoming heat looks like it will be a bit less severe, but nevertheless still worrying after this round of fires.
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/01/2014 18:36

Its more the wind and relative humidity than the heat now that fuels have dried off. RH pushes the fuel moisture back up temporarily but wind will give you a lot more fuel preheat (post ignition) than ambient air temp ever could as well as increasing your spotting distance. Access looking challenging for SE Aust for 29th and maybe a few days after depending on how long that high stays in the Tasman.
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/01/2014 18:42

Unless the rain most of the the models are suggesting, eventuates on Friday and it develops into something more substantial than showers, then hot and dry from the 27th is not a good prospect to look forward to as most vegetation is tinder dry right now.
Posted by: vjknight

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/01/2014 21:02

any further forecasts for next week - kids return to school and walking home might not be a good option. needing to plan ahead.
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/01/2014 09:24

Model consensus seems to be good rain 10-20mm up here for Friday, possibly commencing Thursday night. Nothing much for the following week except increasing heat.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/01/2014 12:45

And looking good, Gabby, for about the same in E. Gippsland. One hopes it comes off that way, cos there's not much on offer after Friday.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/01/2014 16:33

Interesting that the models seem to be moving the rain to Saturday ... and GFS seems to be backing off from any significant totals ... but BoM (on their early, brief forecasts)are still going for Friday. Will watch for the latest runs tonight and for BoM's full forecasts.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/01/2014 18:52

Going backwards and forwards here in an argument with myself ... but now seeing ACCESS G can see that it is proging Friday and that it's pretty significant for the eastern half of the State.
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/01/2014 20:48

WZ now going for 20-40mm on Friday, I am not too sure that the models actually back those kinds of totals.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/01/2014 21:00

I don't know whether I'm seeing things or just going slowly crazy ... when I look now, ACCESS G has the significant rain on Saturday ... and in E. Gippsland it is fairly significant; ACCESS R also has it on Saturday with some scattered significant totals but more a NE and Alpine thing. GFS shows much lower totals spread over both days. And CMC, Friday for central Vic and Saturday for Gippsland and NE.

Maybe others will be less confused than I ;-)))
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/01/2014 21:44

I'm seeing exactly what you've described TB.

Be interesting to see whether it is still fluctuating tomorrow. On more than a few occasions I've thought the models seemed to fluctuate showing one thing at night and another in the morning. I've often wondered if there is sensitivity to some model parameter that fluctuates diurnally.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/01/2014 22:04

A similar phenomenon's sometimes seen in TC track forecasts where the 00z runs of most models show one scenario, only to do an about-face with the 12z runs when things are balanced on a knife's edge. No-one's sure about the exact reason why this happens (even though in the Australian region, the 00z runs ingest the data from weather balloon temperature soundings while the 12z runs usually only use wind data from those balloon flights, they both also ingest a lot of data from other sources such as satellite soundings and aircraft).

These types of situations where there's some model differences are where multi-model consensus forecasts such as those from WATL (http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp) come in handy. They use all the major models (EC, JMA, GFS, UK, etc) and the forecast totals map also corrects for variation in where different models put precip so they've been shown to outperform any single model on its own (on average). I'd recommend clicking on the Chance of Rainfall option on that webpage to see what the percentage of models going for different rainfall amounts are.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/01/2014 23:24

Thanks Ken ... intriguing and fascinating. Be interesting to watch the models and WATL over the next 48hrs and the outcomes over Fri/Sat.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/01/2014 07:47

EC has come in with something similar in the last two runs after jumping around all week, about 12mm here at home on last two runs. Been bouncing between zero and on one run 35mm all week.

Also showing showers or storms to the NW of Melb this afternoon, haven't spotted that on any other model so be funny if that pops up.

Models pretty consistent on a decent rain chance toward the NE of VIC and also the SE of NSW.
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/01/2014 08:59

All models now seem to agree that Friday will result in 10-20mm for North Eastern half of Vic.
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/01/2014 18:25

BOM Meteye suggests very little if any rain to fall in the west, some early AM between Stawell, Colac and Ballarat, spreading north and east as far as the Murray and the Alps before dawn, then intensifying and heading east throughout the day.

By early afternoon everything west of a line between Melbourne and Shepparton should be fairly dry and by sunset showers will have contracted to East Gippsland.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/01/2014 18:35

Hoping the 15mm+ happens in East Gippsland. Very smoky here today before a sea breeze kicked in. There's a couple of fires to the ne of Dargo all set to head south with the next strong n/nw wind. A dousing might mellow their enthusiasm. Far east Gippsland even more needs rain on the fires: the potential there is for massive fires (or joining into one massive fire!)lasting for weeks.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/01/2014 19:10

Well rain or showers for Victoria good for fires but the moist will be gone by Sunday by more heat on way over next week
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/01/2014 20:42

Severe weather warning for heeavy rain and isolated thunderstorms which may lead to flash flooding are forecast for the North East, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts as well as eastern parts of the Northern Country and North Central forecast districts during Friday.
http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/warnings/severe.shtml
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/01/2014 21:40

Following the earlier discussion re the "swinging" of the models ... interesting to see latest runs from some models put the rain back to Saturday or over Friday/Saturday and GFS still going for significantly lower totals. But looking at the WATL Chance of Rain as Ken suggested gives a forecast consistent with earlier BoM forecasts putting it virtually all on Friday. It will be interesting to assess after the event.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/01/2014 21:41

Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Well rain or showers for Victoria good for fires but the moist will be gone by Sunday by more heat on way over next week


True CA, but a dousing will certainly do no harm.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/01/2014 00:10

I just wish the overcast system stay there for few days block sun out with drops rain and upper low is moving bit fast to East
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/01/2014 14:21

I'm back in Melbourne after 3 weeks away, mostly in Corryong, Northeast Victoria and in Merimbula on the NSW South Coast, plus a night in Canberra. Good thing I escaped the recent heatwave, but shocked to see that my area has not seen any real measurable rain in 2-3 weeks!! And it only rained once while I was away, and that was while I was in Canberra on January 19th! I'm sick of dry weather now! frown

Only picked up 7.3mm of rain from this system, nowhere near as much as I want. I was hoping for at least 15-25mm. My total for the month stands at 22.1mm frown
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/01/2014 15:16

Great to see you back ASF. I enjoyed reading your reports on the NSW page, Merimbula is a fantastic place.

6mm or so out of this one for me. Should we create a thread for next week's heat?
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/01/2014 15:36

Originally Posted By: dlcat1
Great to see you back ASF. I enjoyed reading your reports on the NSW page, Merimbula is a fantastic place.

6mm or so out of this one for me. Should we create a thread for next week's heat?


Cheers dlcat1! Yes good to be back, even though I miss Northeast Victoria and Southeast NSW/ACT as always (not as much as Fiji where my fiance lives though) smile and I enjoy reading your posts too mate! wink

Not looking forward to next week's upcoming heatwave, glad I escaped the past one but my luck seems to have run out! Yesterday it was around 35C in the Corryong-Albury/Wodonga region, probably the hottest I've experienced during the whole 3 week period! If I thought yesterday's heat was intense, then next week's will really scorch!! frown
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/01/2014 16:51

47mm for today, which is very acceptable total.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/01/2014 17:23

25mm here
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/01/2014 19:10

7.2mm here for this non thread worthy event. crazy
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/01/2014 19:21

just 4mm today lunch time full sun dry up and began other heating up for all next week hotter inland as low in Queensland will keep heat down from SA to Victoria
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/01/2014 19:49

It may or may not have been thread-worthy ;-)))but it certainly was a lovely bit of rain in this part of the world. It was getting crispy-dry 'round here with plenty of fuel and the rain that we got (25mm) is more than welcome. It started mid-morning, rained steadily without a break til late afternoon and then, like a curtain being drawn away the rain stopped and it was a sunny late arvo. A bit of scruffy cloud now.

Not only is the rain most welcome, it was one of the most pleasant rain events I've known in a long time.

The BoM and WATL proved smarter than most of the fluctuating models in the end in timing and in distribution and totals.
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/01/2014 07:56

Well Said ThunderBob! I too thoroughly enjoyed the rain and I was quite impressed with the total. It was steady, heavy and continuous from 6.30am till midday. After midday a couple of little errant clouds gave short, but heavy bursts and that was that. The sun came out. The garden said thank you. The outside temperature was comfortable. It was just a great day.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/02/2014 19:51

Some decent rain possible around the end of next week? 15th or so for western and or central parts? Been hinted at for a few days at the end of model runs. Wait and see I guess.
Posted by: Lucy

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/02/2014 21:45

Thanks for that info, Ruckle I know it's only a possibility but hope is a wonderful thing and lifts the spirits somewhat, even if we are disappointed again!!!!
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/02/2014 21:33

Yes, interesting to watch. ACCESS G more positive and progging more general. GFS a bit half-hearted and, as Ruckle suggests, more a SW and Central event.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/02/2014 21:44

BOM on ABC radio interviews have mooted the possibility of a wet event at the end of next week yesterday/today (with the appropriate "out there" disclaimers).

I would love that, but cant see it happening based on this arvos model data - can anyone help me out?
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/02/2014 22:00

Yeah Petros, it looks more south-east SA, south-west Vic rather than widespread.

There is a slug of rain that crawls across the bight out of the back end of that tropical depression currently near Wyndham in WA 95S thread here but there is lack of model consensus as to whether it will turn south earlier or reach the ocean and intensify before turning south, giving the variation in rainfall amounts and date.
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/02/2014 13:23

Access is also progging a rain bearing low that will dump on SE NSW, Gippsland and NE Vic next Sunday but it is way out the end of the model period. Also not sure where it came from.
Posted by: Jayson Black

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/02/2014 17:57

We'll Take what ever we can get up here on the Murray river.

I've not looked deep into the stats, but I would swear I can only think of two days all summer long that were below 30c, must be well over 20days now above 40c and I dont think we'd have had more than 10mm spread out 0.5mm at a time from evening Cu's after heat Instability, only one of those days ever produced a Thunderstorm with Photogenic Lightning (and was 40km from my own town).



Near Blighty NSW



Near Finley NSW


Dam Blocking Highs/Ridges. Hopefully this Tropical Flow is enough to break us free for the rest of summer.

I remember a similar Situation some years back, i think maybe 08 or 09. In that Season the blocking high rebuilt it self after a similar event and we remained in drought for another year. smirk (Not that a drought has been declared)(Just pointing out similarity and how Blocking may return)
Posted by: Jayson Black

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/02/2014 18:34

I think this event (while it may not come off quite as much) Will produce some significant totals, and is probably worthy of its own thread. Starting to look more optimistic now.

Also did you guys not see this on the GFS 8-16 day? I noticed it a while back and of course didnt pay much attention to it as the 8-16 day often shows things like this that dont come close to coming off, but now that we are 6 days out and looking quite good for North West and North Central VIC, as well as South West NSW and Southern Riverina also Eastern Vic looking like a bit too now.What do y'all reckon? Im not that big on starting threads, so seeing as its only 6 days out now (For Western VIC) could someone start a Event thread?

Obviously too early to say who will get rain Bombed, but I think its fair to say perhaps a 2/3 of VIC will get above 10mm and as much as 70mm for the event.

Good luck! Happy Chasing!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/02/2014 21:38

Great photo's "ex SSK" (I reckon I'm allowed to call you that after all these years smile ).

Yep time for a new thread, and especially as this (initially) looks like a Finely event, then nominate that bloke Jayson Black to initiate it! smile
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/02/2014 21:49

seconded smile
Posted by: Jayson Black

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/02/2014 22:01

LOL. It certainly has been a few years.

I might leave it another 24 hours then before starting the thread so we have abetter end date. ATM, the rain seems to be going to start in Western VIC on Friday the 14th and the heaviest on the 16th in slightly to the east and west of Central Northern VIC although the center area looks set for some good rain too. But its a bit hard to say what date I should use for the end date i.e. Feb 14th to Feb xx.

you can see in those lightning pics it is sooooooo Dry up here. So even if we got only 30mm spread out over 3 or 4 day that would be a vast improvement of what we have had (or rather not had).

Even the Magpies up here look so parched. I'll go for a drive when the first rain comes (lightning or not) and get some video of the dry soil receiving its first drops, ill record the sounds of the birds as they celebrate the rain. Because they do, don they? You can see their little spirits lift after long dry heat then rain returning. Seeing that then lifts my spirits, i'll take the kids (the Dish Lickers) too, im sure they will love running around in the rain. Dont ya love the smell of the rain in those circumstances, smells so organic, the high moisture mixed with dust.

Anyway, may the Weather gods be kind to all areas

Check out my next post, I found something bizarre in one of those lightning pics, but its a bit hard to see unless your looking at a full res pic. UFO?!?!?! LOL. (just gonna make a cropped version in Photoshop. No other Enhancements though
Posted by: Jayson Black

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/02/2014 22:24

Just noticed a strange anomaly in one of my lightning pics. Something shaped like a crescent.

Its too far away to be an insect, if it where close it would be out of focus. The lightning strike is bout 5km away and I am using a 50mm Prime Lens with Focus at infinity.

Anything closer than about 20M-30M would be blurry-er so if it was an insect its the size of a bird. Could be a bat, but doesn't really look like one.

Its not dust on the lens as that would be extremely blurry, almost see through, I have many examples of that so that's easy to rule out.

I did not see this object with my naked eye on the night, how ever I was praying to any God that would listen for a super lightning show, they delivered. I wonder if its a Vimāna (God Vehicle) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vimana

your better off looking at original image (click link) as 1024px (allowed here) doesn't show you properly. The interesting bit is just under the '0' of "2014" Zoom in if you can grin

Original (Full Res) Pic is here: http://imageshack.com/a/img850/3820/1idk.jpg








Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/02/2014 09:40

They would have to be very small?
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/02/2014 10:35

Owl? Out hunting insects at night?
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/02/2014 14:56

Heads up for a possible ex tropical low interacting with a southern ocean front for Monday 24th onwards.

AccessG shows a low with significant rainfall in the GOC which starts heading south next weekend and which may begin to impact Victoria from Monday 24th onwards. GFS predicting similar movement but much less rain.

I know this is way out in the future but could be one to watch.
Posted by: Plagueis

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/02/2014 07:41

Guys I think this Wednesday might be a severe weather event, GFS is progging a CAPE of around 560, LFTX up to -3 in Vic and there's a good 90 degrees of some very strong shear. No cap by the looks of the forecast Skew-T so early development possible!
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/02/2014 08:09

Next Wednesday looks to be a southerly event in Vic.
Posted by: Thunder Front

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/02/2014 08:31

Think we need to start a new thread for this.......

Cheers ['-=
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/02/2014 12:00

A question for you all ...

Craig Lapsley and others (referring to the prognosis concerning the Morwell mine fire) keep referring to "bad"/"severe" fire weather mid next week. I just can't see anything like that in the models. What do you think?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/02/2014 19:10

My take is for a very warm day next Tue with NW'ly winds at a similar strength to that of this Tuesday which caused all sorts of ruckus in the mine and a near evacuation of Hazelwood Power Station. Would post a chart, but my PC is in meltdown. Expecting a cold Wed pm/Thursday next week.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/02/2014 20:40

Yes, Petros; some warmth on Tuesday but I don't see much wind in it. Let's trust it stays that way though this past Tuesday did produce more wind than expected/forecast.
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/02/2014 12:34

Yeah Monday & Tuesday look warm and dry but I'm not seeing the wind strength yet. Even the change Tuesday night looks fairly weak at the moment.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/02/2014 19:26

Yeah, strongest winds next Tuesday will be NW'lies right on the change to SW - but overnight. At this stage.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/03/2014 18:19

Originally Posted By: dlcat1
Yeah Monday & Tuesday look warm and dry but I'm not seeing the wind strength yet. Even the change Tuesday night looks fairly weak at the moment.


Certainly looks to pan out that way. A warm day tomorrow, slow cooling Tuesday night ahead of a weak change (rain < 5mm) for Gippsland Wed morning.

A light N'W'ly now for tomorrow night, followed by a fairly benign change should only add a days delay to the final extinguishing of the Morwell Open Cut fire imo.

We are looking forward to our Autumn break (rainfall-wise) out this way, so with only < 5mm rain on offer with this change, I'll allow myself a little whinge about the fact that every drip of it looks to be falling on the Maffra Golf Club during the Wednesday mid-week comp! frown
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/03/2014 07:49

EC and ACC have a huge rain event (particularly S Central areas) around 16-17 March on the latest 12z run - be wonderful if it actually happened.
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/03/2014 21:36

ACCESS G has a rain event for VIC around the 3rd April
A strong low arrives from the Bight and picks up some moisture from a n/west tropical infeed
Looks quite wet and potentially stormy for ALL of VIC on this forecast t+120hrs
A shame its moving fast. But looks a nice one or 2 day event

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/04/2014 19:26

First snow for Vic for 2014?????? - overnight April 25th (Friday week)......
Posted by: Plagueis

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/04/2014 10:40

Check out GFS for this Friday/Saturday grin
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/04/2014 16:00

Yep I've been watching the setup later this week with lots of interest! Still on track for strong fronts to sweep across with strong winds and impressively cold air later in the week... although just a slight shift north or south of any low trying to cut off in the westerly flow might make the difference between the coldest of the air moving across VIC causing snow to low levels... or it tracking to the north and snow being restricted to the highest peaks.

Here's the current output from my snow script which shows the percentage of the forecast scenarios from the NCEP ensemble dropping snow to ground level within the next 8 days:

https://farm3.staticflickr.com/2902/14026467234_e41afabd85_o.png

Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/04/2014 19:21

...and another output:

https://farm3.staticflickr.com/2927/14026985742_2e21a9f9f5_o.png

Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/05/2014 19:35

A surf of the models shows nothing out of the norm in the 7 day outlook.

But GFS (AccG dosent agree) brings this possibility at day 8:

For comparison, AccG:
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/05/2014 19:53

looks like a bit of wind and rain on the weekend.....looking interesting
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/05/2014 21:20

That's one HUGE cold front bursting upon Western Australia on radar and satellite... can't wait for it to be our turn - when it comes - for a similar winter storm (in size and/or intensity) to approach Victoria, spreading gales and squalls across the State, along heavy rains, storms, hail, and snow and sleet (low-level if there's sufficiently cold air being pulled in behind it). smile

A disappointment that this storm will weaken before it arrives this weekend, bringing little more than mild northerly/northwesterly winds, and somewhat showery weather... frown
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/05/2014 19:28

Interesting little "knot" evident off NSW SE coast on GFS/AccG for early next week.....
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/05/2014 08:03

I've noticed the pressure gradient in the southern ocean has ramped up too. Wintry blasts just round the corner.
Posted by: Distant Sun

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/05/2014 11:03

Yes dlcat1 hopefully something brewing down there that will come up and blast away next week's stable autumn weather. Might be a bit of a front toward the end of the week.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/05/2014 19:34

This arvo's runs show nothing remarkable in the outlook now IMO - the vertically stacked front for next Wed has now been quashed by all models.

We might be in for a week with many bright sunny days smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/05/2014 18:43

Two model runs on, we have GFS coughing up this (GFS alone mind you!):


We don't ignore these out this way.... Watch them like a hawk till further runs justify/move on to another scenario....

Anyhow, for balance, this is what EC reckons will be in place at that time:


As we all know, I'm a GFS fan, so this is a big litmus test for my faith! smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/05/2014 17:56

.... and at this stage EC wins!!
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/05/2014 19:38

Blah! That's the sort of weather I DO NOT want!! Sure the warmth and sunshine are welcome but with El Nino brewing we're going to need a lot of rain! Being stuck under relentless high pressure is something I loathe, especially in the summer when we need the rain the most to advert bushfires... that cold front towards the bottom-left-hand-corner would be most welcome instead!! frown
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/05/2014 18:16

Persistent high in the 8-10 day outlook for Vic. Some models allow the odd shower to graze Vic's S coast mid next week, but not a consensus. Picnic weather.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/05/2014 19:14

Looks like the High pressure doesn't want give way to SW trade wind but blame the Jet Stream at moment...
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/05/2014 19:20

Bit of weather showing up within the next several days (of course, this script output using GFS data means it's prone to the same errors as GFS):

https://farm3.staticflickr.com/2924/14187984806_1650a23aa1_o.png

Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/05/2014 10:55

Thanks Ken,

Love your graphic outputs.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/05/2014 10:59

Yes great colours Ken! Very eye-catching! smile
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/05/2014 11:14

Thanks guys smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/05/2014 18:57

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Bit of weather showing up within the next several days (of course, this script output using GFS data means it's prone to the same errors as GFS):

https://farm3.staticflickr.com/2924/14187984806_1650a23aa1_o.png



Your "invention" keeps getting better and better Ken! Do you have any objection to us passing this link onto others outside of WZ??
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/05/2014 09:30

That's fine Petros, as long as you credit it to my name.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/05/2014 19:47

Still nothing in Vic's 8-10 day potential outlook to make me fall off my seat!

Maybe a bit of a decent change for Tues 27th? (start a thread if you agree! smile ).

Mind you with this persistent high over E Aus, it's good to see the WA SWLD finally getting some regular wettish frontal systems to alleviate the poor water storage situation out that way smile
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/05/2014 01:07

I'd say we should get a thread up and rolling for next Tuesday's cold front. Should it be extended in duration to include the second cold front that will come charging across Victoria sometime between Wednesday and Friday? smile
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/06/2014 13:07

AccG showing the possibility of a cold pool and widespread rain out towards the end of next week. If it comes off I reckon it'll start the snow season. Perhaps even some falls closer to Melbourne.
Posted by: ColdsnapIII

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/06/2014 23:56

ACCESS probably not the most reliable model.

GFS looking pretty lacklustre in recent runs.

EC looking quite decent with a cut off low forming and some pretty cold air coming in behind.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/06/2014 15:52

The last couple or so runs of EC's been keen on a big upper trough amplifying over central Australia later next week which then spawns a big cutoff surface low over SE Australia.

Too early to tell yet whether it'll be a big event or a fizzer though. Here's the latest output from my script for the 7 days from next Fri:

https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3888/14176528458_8a78d0a3c2_b.jpg

Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/06/2014 01:18

Yes too soon to know for certain what will take shape by late this week and next week as you mentioned Ken... but hopefully something big is on the way! If not then I'll happy settle with just more winter rainfall instead... smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/06/2014 18:50

I'm certainly watching Ken!!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/06/2014 21:36

A frontal system should cross Vic tomorrow. I'm expecting 2-4mm rain out this way during the afternoon. Any thoughts?
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/06/2014 23:36

Yep, Victoria is definitely in another cold front tomorrow... YAY!! Hoping to pick up at least another 5-10mm of rain as it swings over, maybe a thunderstorm with it as well with it? smile
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/06/2014 11:24

Opticast Ensemble had Vic resorts picking up 5-10mm out of this front yesterday. Now backed off to 1-5mm.

Next weekend/early next week looks interesting. I checked last night and AccR and EC were gunning for a deep wet front with cold pool Sunday into Monday. GFS had it arriving on Tuesday and further south. A week ago AccR was forecasting more this last weekend than we got, but its definitely one to watch as/if it develops, particularly for resort operators/users and the already sodden residents of Gippsland.
Posted by: Thunder Front

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/06/2014 11:47

The front has passed by.... not much rain was pouring down.
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/06/2014 10:05

If the models are in agreement tomorrow afternoons run I think a thread for this weekend and early next week might be needed. At the moment Access is very excited. Thoughts?
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/06/2014 10:43

Yes Petros, I see what you're looking at... wait another 24 hours or so for the picture to become clearer, but it looks promising for what could end up being a fantastic, enormous winter storm!!

At this stage ACCESS has a huge cold front and a deep cold pool moving across the Southern Ocean, with the pressure gradient ahead of it really tightening up around Friday/Saturday as it enters the Great Australian Bight and prepares to burst across Victoria on Sunday, so that could translate into strengthening, blustery northwest/northerly winds (potentially gale-force) on Sunday/Monday, especially in/near coastal and elevated areas?

ACCESS then has the cold pool surging into Victoria and 'wrapping' around a low that develops near Tasmania on Monday, before the system moves east into the Tasman Sea. But another cold front should follow on its heels on Wednesday, maintaining cold winds, showers, alpine snow, hail, storm activity over Victoria for at least another day or two.

Not sure what the chances are for low-level snowfalls though. But if ACCESS still holds, I'd say it's game-on for a decent winter storm for Victoria!! smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/06/2014 18:37

Another cold wet windy outbreak looming for this weekend for Vic????

I invite an intrepid reporter to start a thread for this (which might see Mt Hotham enter into July with circa 1.25M of snow under its belt?
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/06/2014 18:45

Yep Petros! I'll step up and get the thread ready to roll for the next event... looks full of promise for more stormy weather, rain, cold wind, and snowfalls! Bring it on!! grin
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/06/2014 18:54

In the meantime, here's the output from my snow script that I ran yesterday which shows what chances the NCEP ensemble is suggesting for snow. I haven't run it today yet so not sure it's changed much since then:

https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3876/14314688597_49dc0ff6a4_b.jpg

Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/06/2014 19:20

Thanks Ken, have many friends heading up to Hotham this weekend! smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/06/2014 19:06

Models are all undecided about the conditions into next weekend 4-7 July, but EC (well respected by the majority of us) moots a continuation of the severe winter weather SE Aus has been experiencing ahead of a possible weak/moderate ElNino presently being spruiked by the majority (NOT consensus) of punters far smarter than I into next Spring...
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/06/2014 19:35

Just for clarification, how would and El Nino event impact us here in Vic?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/06/2014 20:21

We would not be experiencing a wet winter, as we clearly are in SE Vic, in my opinion.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/06/2014 22:32

Hopefully the much-anticipated El Nino DOESN'T eventuate - or turns out to be an unusually soggy one like 2009-2010, even though much of the abnormally high rainfall the 2009-2010 El Nino brought was during the November-March period (conversely during our bushfire season). Painful memories of the devastating droughts and bushfires of the 2002-2003 and 2006-2007 El Ninos remain fresh in my brain, and after last summer (and the 2008-2009 summer and Black Saturday Bushfires), I don't want to go through another summer with below-average rainfall and scorching heat ever again! frown

Anyway, looking ahead for the next week or so, not sure what ACCESS has in mind, but the Weatherzone synoptic charts show the first system for July 2014, a cold front, swinging over Victoria sometime mid/late-next week and into the following weekend, bringing another bout of cold, showery winds with alpine snowfalls. smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/07/2014 19:45

Yep ASF, the weekend ahead harbours more interesting weather for Vic, - a potential cut-off low system (matures in Bight/SA) to rapidly cross Vic (well rapidly at this stage). Plenty of model consensus, here's CMC's take on it:




I reckon its worth a thread for itself (but I bet other watchers are more interested in the potential system following this!! - another story left to someone else!).
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/07/2014 01:21

Yes I agree with you Petros! Looks like two separate threads are the go for the next seven-ten day period or so. smile

Not too sure how things will go in terms of rainfall for this coming weekend's potential cut-off low, although I'll gladly settle for anything in the 5-10mm range (more would be welcome, especially for Melbourne's catchments). Alpine snowfalls are possible, but maybe a few centimetres or so.

But next week is looking much more exciting, with a decent winter storm on the cards! ACCESS has a high pressure briefly dropping into Victoria around Sunday/Monday for a quick visit. A huge, deep low is set to come charging up from Antarctica; an enormous cold front and follow-up cold pool get thrown northwards by this low, with the cold front bursting across Victoria late-Tuesday into Wednesday, preceded by a strengthening northerly airflow. Note the steep pressure gradient ahead of the system; the isobars tighten up on Monday and certainly on Tuesday, so I'd say another round of gale-force winds is likely! ACCESS has the cold pool spreading deep into Victoria and NSW/ACT on Wednesday into Thursday.

Again, not sure how we'll fair in terms of rainfall and alpine snowfall with next week's potential storm, but fingers crossed! smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/07/2014 19:10

Anyone else noticed the chance of a significant ECL to potentially develop over SE Aus around this time next week?

Several models show the high pressure system in place over Aus now to shrink/move off to the SE between Tassie and NZ mid next week. This will allow/facilitate the 2nd Sm wave from now (the next is due Fri) to "fling" far more northwards than usual as it passes. This allows the "purple" cold air line to graze Tassie's Southern latitude at just the right location (SSW of Tassie) sporn an ECL off Vics East. Worth watching (and a thread if anyone agrees!):
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/07/2014 19:12

Yep Petros, and some of the models such as FIM are even hinting at the chance of another one after that. Have made a post about next week's cold outbreak at http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...son#Post1269392
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/07/2014 20:14

I cant see anything of note in the 7-9 day outlook. Which suits me fine, I'm taking a road trip to Mintaro SA for a week from next Saturday.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/07/2014 12:17

Enjoy your road trip to South Australia Petros! smile

ACCESS and the synoptic charts still have a low pressure area and associated trough swinging by late this week, bringing unsettled and showery conditions (maybe a storm or two?), before shifting off into the Tasman Sea, possibly as an ECL. smile

Behind that, a high pressure system looks set to build in from the northwest, but with northwest/northerly winds developing ahead of what could be our next big winter storm, due around the end of July and beginning of August. A little too early to know for certain but worth keeping an eye on. smile
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/07/2014 20:36

Today's 00z runs suggest yet another possible cold outbreak over SE Australia towards the end of next week but vary a lot on how far north the cold air goes.

ACCESS-G being particularly aggressive in spinning up a huge ECL off SE Australia after the initial front sweeps through with cold air wrapping up around its backside. Some others keep the cold air much further south or bathe VIC in milder southeasterlies.

Here's what the NCEP ensemble currently thinks (as always, don't take those blue patches over the inland too literally - they're due to a small minority of scenarios from the model being extreme):

Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/07/2014 23:00

It's beautiful grin

Just checked out the access charts on WZ, very impressive! I'm sure as usual it'll all downgrade before it hits, but I can dream.
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/07/2014 12:31

And we are back online.... BoM have snow forcast for Friday morning up on mt Dandenong.... Looks to be quite a cold front
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/07/2014 12:41

Originally Posted By: Dawoodman
And we are back online.... BoM have snow forcast for Friday morning up on mt Dandenong.... Looks to be quite a cold front


Yep! Great to be back online Dawoodman! I'm just setting up a thread for the upcoming event, should be ready soon! Boy the event looks insane... so looking forward to it!! grin
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/07/2014 13:46

This week's frontal systems look like doozies, especially the one later this week. Very strong winds and snow down to low levels look like being on the cards.

Here's some outputs from my scripts. As always, on the weather potential map, where different weather types overlap, the one higher in the list will obscure the one below it e.g. thunderstorms or snow will obscure windy. For the gust map, the gust speeds are bias-corrected to better match past observations:



Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/08/2014 11:04

Some longer range modelling's been hinting at another cold SW'ly outbreak with an outside chance of snow down to low levels over southern SE Australia around a week from now. EC currently has sub -4C temps at 850hpa coming up. Still early days though so this is subject to change.

Here's what the NCEP ensemble currently thinks for the period between the 9th to 18th Aug:

Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/08/2014 19:09

Well Ken, you must feel pretty chuffed with the success of your scripts smile (I am!).

In regards to the weather in a weeks time, per your posts above, I can see what I think is an unusual situation.

A high pressure system forming in the bight (summer stuff) that "traps" (rather than "nudges up") a pool of cold "blue line" upper air to the NNE of it, cutting it off over SE Aus.

East Coast Low fodder.

One to watch for sure!!!!
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/08/2014 23:23

Urgh!! I hate stubborn high pressure, last summer's run of high pressure was a nightmare (where were our usual summertime low pressure troughs/easterly dips from Queensland when Victoria needed them?!) frown

But fingers crossed the potential events in store over the next 7-10 days or so, the more rain we get the better! And hopefully an increased chance for low-level snow!! smile
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/08/2014 10:42

Thanks Petros smile Yes I was happy, but moreso because I was in Melbourne at the time and I wanted it to come off while I was there.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/08/2014 19:07

After a couple of fine days later this week, the outlook shows a weak cut-off from the next LWT passing the bight later in the week influence Vic into next weekend:


...not a "biggie" but any takers to start a thread on this?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/08/2014 18:59

The Ides of September.....

The normal drying out after winter looks set to arrive right on cue....

We can expect the start of the typical strong early spring NW'lies after this weeks sunny break??

Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/08/2014 19:16

Yep looks like the fine spell that's moving in for the last week of winter will give way to our first active springtime cold front. Hope we get good rains and storms this coming spring and summer!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/08/2014 19:01

Todays GFS shows that the low off E Aus blocks/pushes "under" the approaching NW'lies (my above post) for Vic (perhaps not so SA over the weekend):


... so now we have that system slumping to SE Tas allowing a cut-off low to potentially form for next Mon SE NSW instead.

... and we have both AccG and GFS mooting the following LWT to create a 2nd cut-off, leaving Vic with lows W and E of Vic by next Tuesday!!

Not an Armageddon event weatherwise, but bloody unusual in my book.

...another anything may happen/watch this space scenario into early next week.

If you have a comment - pls start a thread!! smile

Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/08/2014 23:09

I suggest we wait a bit longer Petros for the picture to become a little clearer. Still looks as though a major cold front is due to burst across Victoria early next week, but not sure what the weather's next move will be from there onwards... smile
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/08/2014 18:36

Yeah it's been looking interesting. If the Tasman Sea cyclogenesis can get really cranking again next week, that'll help the chances of a cold outbreak. Here's a couple of outputs:



Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/08/2014 20:32

Spaghetti plot of min MSLP over the next 7 days!

VERY interesting script Ken - my favourite so far! smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/08/2014 19:32

Sorry to leap frog over the next change into this weekend (there is a thread for this), but the following weather event looks potentially much more interesting to me (long way out but GFS and AccG hint):


What better ingredients could you put into the soup for a SE Aus rain/late-snow event? (cold air, very very cold air at 120Edeg to feed up, cut-off low potentially to shear near Pt Lincon SA, blocking low sitting E of E-NZ, ...and the time of the year).

Something that might be, or might have been, to watch with keen interest eh?
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/08/2014 00:50

Good on ya for pointing that out Petros! Hope it comes off as predicted! Looks like we've got a whole series of cold fronts moving into position in time for the start of spring here in Victoria! Hope things really get into high gear as the spring equinox draws closer and then the annual pre-monsoon build-up starts up north, allowing hot air and potential tropical humidity to be added into the equation, and leading to increasing blustery, stormy weather! smile
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/09/2014 15:38

This coming weekend looks mighty fine; that potential frontal system/trough I spoke of a few days ago is weakening and not going to do much other than perhaps set off the odd shower (maybe a storm) over Western Victoria before heading northeast into NSW and Queensland. Otherwise the dominating factor is a large high pressure system, bringing chilly mornings but pleasant afternoons! smile

Next week (September 7th-13th 2014) is still a go-ahead, not too sure what ACCESS is showing now, but the synoptic charts still reveal a major storm system that's on a collision course with Victoria! A warm northerly airflow will build up from Monday onwards (sending maximum temperatures up towards 25C around Mildura), ahead of a deep low pressure system with a series of intense cold fronts and an associated trough. I expect conditions will be quite blustery commencing Monday! Showers and possible thunderstorms from Tuesday onwards, and the possibility of good rainfall totals, mainly along the Great Dividing Range and up in Northeast Victoria, which may see falls of 50-100mm at this stage! I expect a decent cold outbreak from about mid-week onwards, with more alpine snow! One to watch guys! smile
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/09/2014 18:35

Thanks Petros smile

NAFES and CFS has been suggesting a cold signal across a large part of the continent for the Week 2 period for some days now... although hard to tell how much of an effect it might have on VIC. Here's the NAEFS output from a couple of days ago for that period:

Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/09/2014 11:24

looking like a front is on the cards for next thursday, still ages out, especially for GFS. the city may miss out on the exciting due to timing, this could fix itself though.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/09/2014 12:25

Yes I see it too Dawoodman! Still too early to know with 100% certain but in coming days the picture should start to reveal itself more, especially on ACCESS, but the Weatherzone synoptic charts are looking promising at this stage! smile

The heat that's forecast to build across Western Australia will get pushed east ahead of the anticipated storm; Victoria's first 30C+ days for the season may happen around this time next week up in the Mallee region (around Mildura) as winds swing northerly, with 25C likely for Melbourne next Wednesday (should be great for anyone heading to the 2014 Royal Melbourne Show)! It'll be interesting to see whether or not cold air can get drawn into the low from the south or whether it'll be a cut-off/tropical dip-style system. smile

Hope it brings more good rain and more good thunderstorms! smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/09/2014 21:03

... and still out there after todays model runs, now in CMC's sight:


..... will the low pressure system get too "ripe" and die on Vic's doorstep??
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/09/2014 23:58

Just need to wait and see... ACCESS still has what could be some potentially very stormy weather on the cards late next week! smile

At this stage, ACCESS has the system from WA dissolving over us next Thursday. But it also has a huge, wintry cold pool on the move in the Southern Ocean, with a low pressure system beginning to take shape within this Antarctic air mass near the western Great Australian Bight around the same time. The cold air should get spung north around the western side of low, forming an impressive cold front, and as the pressure plummets in the storm, more heat may get forced south from the Outback in a strengthening, blustery, northwest/northerly airflow. The change should hit Victoria next week on Friday according to ACCESS and head north into Southern NSW/ACT, followed by a fair cold outbreak; hope some thunderstorms can form along and ahead of the change as well. smile

Still way too early to be 100% certain, but I hope BOTH systems happen! We need to keep the rain coming will we can! I don't want us slipping into drought! frown
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/09/2014 19:09

Yep agreed ASF - the latest consensus is for the WA cut-off to decay to "not much" over SA. However, as you advised, the follow up system will crash into these remnants later next week. ....and may provide something interesting (at least stormy). Definitely better to watch than what was on offer a day or so ago! smile
AccG:
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/09/2014 20:16

Yes same Petros! ACCESS is still constantly changing its mind atm, but the overall picture suggests that the upcoming extended warm spell/early-spring heatwave is likely to give way to potentially stormy weather by this time next week. Either way, whatever happens will happen, but the 'Battle of the Air Masses' seems to be getting ready to begin in earnest! smile
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/09/2014 23:41

the fact that we will get to 25C next week means there will be good surface heating before the change

BSCH has lit up for next week like a christmas tree.....
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/09/2014 08:44

Below is a graph showing significant weather probabilities for Melbourne during the next couple of weeks generated by NCEP ensemble data. The Cool and Warm thresholds are based on 850hpa temps that typically cause Melbourne max temps on mostly sunny days to be in the coolest or warmest 10% of Sep max temps:

https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3861/15105413597_137d4c710c_o.png

Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/09/2014 10:14

ACCESS still making decisions, with several cut-off-style systems affecting Victoria late next weeks, in the lead-up to a potentially big winter storm that it suggests may reach us in time for the end of September and beginning of October! smile

Still WAY too early to know for sure. Need to wait at least a few more days...
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/09/2014 15:31

Upon analysing the synoptic charts, it seems that in addition to the 'cut-off/tropical dip' system that's still on the cards, even if it dissolves, that winter storm/cold front I mentioned in the above posts is now in the picture. Whether it'll stall, slip away from us or suddenly charge north to affect us following the cut-off system is yet to be known.

It's almost time for a new thread, including the upcoming warm spell. smile
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/09/2014 17:17

It will be all about timing, at the moment it looks like it will head over us at night/early morning..... lets hope it improves
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/09/2014 17:32

True Dawoodman, and factor into the equation the amount of heat and any left-over humidity from the 'cut-off' low that will be available should the cold front be forecast to strike Victoria late-next week and next weekend. Until this incoming high moves out, it's just a waiting game, but right now the atmosphere is becoming like one big chessboard, with the pieces moving in unpredictable ways and the weather responding accordingly. Hope another good storm outbreak will erupt across the State soon! smile

Edit: just checked ACCESS once more, at this stage the cold pool is set to build over the Southern Ocean to the southwest of WA from about Saturday September 27th 2014 looks ENORMOUS at this stage, and should get spun around a MASSIVE, deep low pressure system, with the heat that's building up north being drawn in as well!! smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/09/2014 20:30

Naturally I'd be drawn to post this GFS potential scenario as a possible next week outcome:


However as Ruckle has said, GFS has been performing poorly of late in terms of what falls to the ground.

For me, I love the fact that it is the best (IMO) of picking the actual synoptic outcome furtherest out than most other models.

Heres to a stormy climax to next weeks sunny days! smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/09/2014 19:02

... latest GFS for next Wednesday:


Its pretty clear that a change/rain/storm event for mid next week is on our doorstep, so well time to start a new thread on this, ASF or others? - .....else I'll start one tomorrow.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/09/2014 19:04

In case you're interested, I started a multi-state thread for the thunderstorm aspect of the setup here: http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...thu#Post1277172
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/09/2014 14:11

Not wanting to get to far ahead of myself, but at this present time ACCESS and the synoptics are coming into line for what could be a decent early/mid-spring storm system that's poised to burst across Victoria around this time next week, in time to start our shift from September into October! smile

Once the anticipated cut-off/tropical dip event currently grabbing our attention from WA clears out, high pressure quickly returns, but it won't stick around for long! The high makes a hasty retreat to the Australian East Coast next weekend, while a huge low pressure system swings into the Great Australian Bight from the Southern Ocean.

The associated cold pool surging up from Antarctica gets thrown north and forms a massive cold front; the air pressure plummets at the centre of the low and the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the front and draws heat out of the north, which could lead to warm to hot, potentially blustery, possibly gale-force northwest/northerly winds across the State commencing Sunday or even as early as late-Saturday! The cold front should hit Victoria and into Southern NSW/ACT on Monday, followed by a reasonable cold outbreak that should no doubt drop snow in the Alpine region. Hopefully severe thunderstorms will break out as the front hits, especially here in Melbourne! smile

Still too early but certainly it's got my attention... wink
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/09/2014 18:19

After we get through tomorrow's potentially thundery change in Vic's southern parts, it looks like it will remain fairly cool/mild in S Vic until the next decent changes arrives into the states SW corner next Monday.

From what I can interpret, all models point to a very warm and windy NNW'ly day next Monday ahead of a solid cold change. Got to be storms (and potentially fires ahead of them) on the cards with the arrival of this one:


ASF - don't hold your instinct's back!
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/09/2014 19:19

Haha thanks Petros! Just don't want to get too far ahead of myself... but I will admit I'm being cautiously optimistic! But I'm on board with you mate! smile

Yes ACCESS seems to be showing signs that something big and very stormy is likely to strike around this time next week - a potentially EPIC 'Battle of the Air Masses' could be on its way to Victoria soon!! grin The synoptic charts aren't revealing too much just yet, but I'm sure they'll fall into line with the models in coming days. smile

At this stage it has a large cold pool heading north from Antarctica this coming weekend; a deep low pressure system forms within the cold pool and unleashes an impressive cold front around the beginning of next week. The deepening low generates a strengthening northerly airflow, with heat from the Outback being sucked into the storm, so I imagine some warm, blustery conditions are in store early next week. I would be on the alert for possible bushfire conditions (as you suggested Petros), especially up the Mallee region, but still waiting to see if and when Mildura will top 35C (and for Melbourne's first 30C+ day for the season). Hope adequate moisture from the tropics and from the Southern Ocean can be added in, and hope things get very unstable - I'm anxious for more heavy rainfall to develop and for some great thunderstorm action (including hail) to be thrown in! Hope a decent cold outbreak comes surging in after the cold front bursts across Victoria, with more alpine snowfalls and coldie action for those of us near the coast! smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/09/2014 18:26

OK ASF - how about this one as a tempter?:


Green eggs and ham!
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/09/2014 18:46

Hahahaha Petros! I like your thinking mate - I love the book "Green Eggs and Ham" btw! grin

Yes ACCESS still seems to want this system to come off as predicted a couple of days ago, so just watch closely for a tad longer before we get a thread up and ready to roll. The synoptic charts seem to be coming into line with ACCESS now, with a decent cold front bursting across Victoria next Monday. Mildura is forecasted to roast in 35C heat before the cold blast. Fingers crossed, but I think a decent storm will develop, just need to give it a bit more space and time! But my instincts tell me that it looks promising! wink
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/10/2014 20:38

Potential system for early next week downplayed today, GFS:
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/10/2014 23:22

Yes I see the downplay there too Petros, but ACCESS still has it on the cards, with the synoptic charts also showing something potentially big in the winds for early next week! smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/10/2014 19:23

Here's the latest EC for Monday morning - a significant frontal system WILL arrive for Vic with all the typical mid spring extreme weather ingredients:

* very warm conditions for early October
* very windy (NW) ahead of the front
* fires in several locations almost a given
* storms and SES reports on the media in the most amplified frontal regions

Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/10/2014 20:57

I think it's high-time to get a thread going for this upcoming event Petros... I'll step into do it! smile
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/10/2014 07:59

12z run has an epic event for next week pegged on ACC GFS and EC. Guess we will cross our fingers that its still there on Sunday.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/10/2014 11:11

Yes I see it on ACCESS as well Ruckle! It currently has a low pressure trough forming over the weekend up along the East Coast (NSW and Queensland) and then slipping south into Victoria around the start of next week, just in time to merge with an intense cold front heading north from Antarctica! Looks like a decent low pressure area with strong winds, heavy rainfall, possible thunderstorms, and alpine snowfalls may be on the cards! smile
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/10/2014 15:35

It's definitely an interesting system that's been appearing on ensembles for around the past week or two now. Here's an output from one of my scripts:

Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/10/2014 17:04

Some ensembles have been hinting at the chance of another spell of instability over parts of SE Australia from mid next week then spreading east.

Here's a map generated by a couple of ensembles showing the probabilities of CAPE exceeding 500J/kg during the period 8 to 16 days from now. The increasing instability showing up on the standard 7 day models by mid next week looks like the start of the signal on the map below:

https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3953/15541093832_11cfe99335_o.png

Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/10/2014 19:20

"Proper" Spring thunder season arrival!! smile smile
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/10/2014 01:10

Originally Posted By: Petros
"Proper" Spring thunder season arrival!! smile smile


You said it Petros!! Bring it on mate, looks like the party is about to begin - hope there's lots of great storm action to follow right through until at least the end of February! grin
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/10/2014 15:28

A bit premature but GFS have a decent stormy setup out for the start of the cyclone season next weekend. Maybe the fashion at derby day might be enough to bring out the storms
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/10/2014 16:23

Originally Posted By: Dawoodman
A bit premature but GFS have a decent stormy setup out for the start of the cyclone season next weekend. Maybe the fashion at derby day might be enough to bring out the storms

Can't see any storms on the 00z run.
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/10/2014 16:27

I shouldn't have said anything poke
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/10/2014 18:43

Originally Posted By: Dawoodman
I shouldn't have said anything poke


I dunno, next Sat-Mon while not actually screaming storms for Vic, also don't preclude them IMO.

....any change in Spring in Vic keeps us all on the seat! smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/10/2014 18:21

Too far out for BOM to be mentioning storms, but if TWC is credible, there is potential to have moisture advected into the head of next Fridays change from either the NW or the NE depending on the eventual timing of the cold air arrival.

I'll be down at Lakes Entrance Friday night, so would love to see a storm down that way if te runes play out in my favour.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/10/2014 18:28

Yes interesting to see what happens this coming Melbourne Cup weekend, especially for Northeast Victoria (I'm heading for Corryong), hope storms erupt as the cold front and low pressure trough burst across the State and slam into any available tropical/sub-tropical humidity that gets sucked down into the preceding northerly airflow! smile

Wait a few more days and then set up a new thread for it I'd say! smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/11/2014 19:17

After a boring Vic outlook for several days now, at the later part of next week we might finally see a "Collision" of potential moist air advection from NE, or NW, or Both (dependant on timing) ahead of a decent SM cold air frontal system over night Thursday (at this stage). Would have posted a GFS prog for this but the site's down atm.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/11/2014 12:38

After a satisfying weekend of weather for most in Vic, now to the next event.

Not much to speak about midweek IMO, - but it will be interesting to watch the build up of moisture in the Aust interior as te week progresses. By next weekend most of the interior will be trough.

What we need down here is a set-up to advect some of it into Vic (like this weekend), and see if can score some storms out of it for ourselves:
Posted by: rainshy

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/11/2014 22:39

Hi Petros, We had 20mm here in northern Victoria,thats 20mm we didn't want at this time of the year with all the harvesting and hay being baled. that enough to strike the seed in the heads of the grain, wheat in particular and Canola which is being harvested atm.That will devalue it.
Looks like will be hot for the weekend as usualand that will probably bring more rain.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/11/2014 00:38

As per rainshy's comments, yes looks like something else is brewing... smile


ACCESS and the synoptic charts have a cold front brushing just to out south overnight/tomorrow, bringing the odd coastal shower. High pressure will quickly return to Victoria afterwards. smile

Then, things start heating up! The Pre-Monsoonal Build-Up over WA is concocting another heat low; a trough is set to dip southeast from this low and link up with another impending cold front currently on the march in the Southern Ocean. As the high retreats east, a warm to hot northerly airflow will build across Victoria ahead of the advancing cold front and trough from Tuesday onwards. The passage of the front and trough (expected Thursday) at this stage should build down enough tropical moisture to bring more rain and potentially severe thunderstorms according to BSCH! smile

And if the forecasts ring true, another similar troughy/frontal storm event looks set to hit the State this weekend! smile

Fingers crossed... smile
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/11/2014 08:49

Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak
As per rainshy's comments, yes looks like something else is brewing... smile


ACCESS and the synoptic charts have a cold front brushing just to out south overnight/tomorrow, bringing the odd coastal shower. High pressure will quickly return to Victoria afterwards. smile

Then, things start heating up! The Pre-Monsoonal Build-Up over WA is concocting another heat low; a trough is set to dip southeast from this low and link up with another impending cold front currently on the march in the Southern Ocean. As the high retreats east, a warm to hot northerly airflow will build across Victoria ahead of the advancing cold front and trough from Tuesday onwards. The passage of the front and trough (expected Thursday) at this stage should build down enough tropical moisture to bring more rain and potentially severe thunderstorms according to BSCH! smile

And if the forecasts ring true, another similar troughy/frontal storm event looks set to hit the State this weekend! smile

Fingers crossed... smile


Its been quite some time since the last storm event up this way, so I like the sound of your thoughts for next weekend's heatwave and thunderstorms, aussiestormfreak. 36c expected for Saturday and Sunday.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/11/2014 19:15

It's got me confused Gabby, when I look at this GFS setup for next Sunday:


....I would have expected significant Vic weather event due to the interaction of warm and humid inland conditions, soon to be hit with a very cold (for this time of the year) Sm cold front.

But not to be according to the models.

... also, it just me?: after every warm day (or so) for this Vic spring, we've gone back to far colder conditions than you'd expect for this time of the year? (mostly going my family firing up the heater frequently during past 8 weeks)!
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/11/2014 19:32

Originally Posted By: Petros


... also, it just me?: after every warm day (or so) for this Vic spring, we've gone back to far colder conditions than you'd expect for this time of the year? (mostly going my family firing up the heater frequently during past 8 weeks)!


Not that i have noticed although for much of the west October was the hottest on record. I had 3 days below 14C this year vs 9 last year but that could be just us in the SW - for October
Posted by: dlcat1

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/11/2014 21:05

I've noticed it. We get a run of mild to warm days then a hot northerly then very cool for a few days. Is it abnormal? I don't know, but I do feel I'm wearing a jumper for longer in the mornings.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/11/2014 10:05

Same here! Lots of mornings this month that have fallen below 15C, including quite a few in the single-digits; last night was no exception, getting down to 7.7C! eek crazy

Still, it's good sleeping weather, and our daytime highs are generally pleasingly mild to warm (with a few chilly and hot days tossed in). And at least we're not getting those incessant westerlies like we had last spring, even though this spring has been less blustery than usual. smile

Anyway, looking forward to tomorrow and to the coming weekend. I hope it's the start of a positive change for the Storm Season! smile
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/11/2014 13:08

The weather I guess is a bit more choppy and changey, I know I have used the electric blanket a bit this month. There is that one day that is really hot and then the change comes through and its frigid. its good in the way that there hasn't really been a long string of hot days but the wind changes could be bad. I guess this is just apart of our build-up to summer though grin
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/11/2014 17:17

Chance of storms out Gippsland way on Monday?


.... from the BOM Gippsland....
Monday 24 November

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon
Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/11/2014 22:48

Monday looks absolutely fantastic. Lets hope the models hold up.
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/11/2014 16:45

Humidity is to come.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/11/2014 18:11

And some interesting scenarios Ant. Bairnsdale forecast for Monday: "A humid and cloudy day. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Heavy falls exceeding 70 mm possible. Light winds." ... and then ... Thurs/Frid seem to hold some interesting possibilities across eastern Vic though the models and WATL are in vast disagreement re how much and where.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/11/2014 19:48

ACCESS G has now got a lot more "realistic" about Thurs/Frid next week. confused
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/11/2014 19:52

Better than hot, dry weather with bushfires! If only we had summers with generous rainfall and storms... frown

Hope it holds out and comes off as predicted! smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/12/2014 18:45

Just did a quick scan over the pending outlook. To me, it looks like that most folk in Vic that are having family "home" for Christmas, have a good chance of presenting the "ole house/garden" in near spring-like condition, given recent and prognosed rain over the next 6 - 12 days.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/01/2015 08:46

Potentially interesting period in a week or so according to the models. I'll rely on other more knowledgeable folks to properly describe what is being progged by the models but (lumping them all together) there seems a scenario something like ...

A low forms on the Kimberley coast, intensifies into a cyclone crossing the Pilbara coast and then heading inland E/SE then traveling inland. A long deep trough develops from this and (perhaps acc to earlier runs) either links with a Bight low or forms a low at it most SE extent south of SE Sth Aust or western Vic and then intensifies.

Suggestions of heavy falls of rain over central and eastern Victoria around 10-12 January.

Thoughts?
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/01/2015 09:48

Yes ThunderBob! ACCESS has something for that period, whether it happens or no is unclear... but if it does happen, it could mean a very, VERY soggy start to my time in Merimbula, NSW! Maybe an ECL? smile
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/01/2015 10:03

Yes, ASF ... without going back to the models ...one scenario is an ECL.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/01/2015 11:04

Ahh! Hadn't realized a thread had been set up already for this period ... so over to "arrival of a summer NW cloudband (rain??) 8-11/1/15"
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/01/2015 11:25

Yep that's the one ThunderBob! Sorry I failed to mention it to you mate! Seems to be a bit confusing atm with several systems occurring in fairly rapid succession, but they also seem to be linked to each other in a way!

For instance, the trough that passed over last night is set to stall over Gippsland and Northeast Victoria before retreating back west and providing sultry, unsettled conditions with showers and thunderstorms across much of the State, before a cold front brushes by late this coming week. Then of course we have the potential low/NW cloudband coming down behind that!! crazy

But as confusing as this is IMO, this is way better than a blocking high with heatwave and bushfire conditions! If it delivers the summer rain we need so badly then bring it on!! wink
Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/01/2015 22:08

What ACCESS are going with in their 00z run reminds me of the summer a couple of years ago where in January there was some scorching temperatures inland but constant weak changes kept it in the mid 20s for Melbourne
Posted by: Lucy

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/01/2015 09:57

Yes I recall that summer too, very similar indeed
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/01/2015 16:33

I reckon there ain't much happenin' in Victoria's weather over the next week.Should be good for golf though Petros (and Samboz?).
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/01/2015 17:58

Glad to see that the worst heat should stay well clear of Melbourne for at least another seven days or so, with highs struggling to get above about 32C or so. No doubt the cooler temperatures and any rain that occurs during that period will be most welcome in bushfire-prone areas in and near the metropolitan area, especially in the Dandenong Ranges! I'm sure people like Darkhazord and Lucy will agree! wink

Not happy about returning to Corryong, Northeast Victoria next week. Yes I love the town, but always hard saying goodbye to Merimbula and having to wait twelve long months before I can come back to the NSW South Coast! But even worse, that inland heatwave you guys mentioned will strike the Upper Murray next week, with highs breaking 35C from Wednesday onwards! There had better be some high humidity with showers and thunderstorms with it, or I won't be happy!! frown mad
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/01/2015 17:31

GFS hinting at some hot to very hot temps late jan early feb - right when school starts GREAT!!
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/01/2015 17:54

Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
I reckon there ain't much happenin' in Victoria's weather over the next week.Should be good for golf though Petros (and Samboz?).


Trying to be the opposite to the wet summmer tb, mind you this is a dream run so far into summer and regardless of the extreme golf addicts, eg P****s and H****K, (the latter who is considering golf), we are continuing on track to be endowed (todays word) with this beaut cool weather, and yes it is GOOD..

Worked over Glenmaggie this AM, slight breeze, blue sky, mid 20's - very nice for January.

Little bit of work on HK yet, he'll come round though....... :-)
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/01/2015 18:15

Originally Posted By: logansi
GFS hinting at some hot to very hot temps late jan early feb - right when school starts GREAT!!


Hear hear! And so that means the bushfire risk will be back on once more... not good!! mad mad
Posted by: Hells kitchen

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/01/2015 18:41

Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak
Originally Posted By: logansi
GFS hinting at some hot to very hot temps late jan early feb - right when school starts GREAT!!


Hear hear! And so that means the bushfire risk will be back on once more... not good!! mad mad


It'll be all gone next model run. No hope for this fail at life crummer, it's a write-off. Sure as hell won't see any storms in the near future either.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/01/2015 18:46

Originally Posted By: Hells kitchen
Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak
Originally Posted By: logansi
GFS hinting at some hot to very hot temps late jan early feb - right when school starts GREAT!!


Hear hear! And so that means the bushfire risk will be back on once more... not good!! mad mad


It'll be all gone next model run. No hope for this fail at life crummer, it's a write-off.


Good... had better be gone! Otherwise it'll cost my area all that rain that we DESPERATELY needed! And I'm sure people like Doogasnow, Darkhazord, and Lucy will agree. smile
Posted by: Lucy

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/01/2015 19:12

Agree Wholeheartedly ASF, I am loving this weather, more, more and more please,
Lucy
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/01/2015 19:20

Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
I reckon there ain't much happenin' in Victoria's weather over the next week.Should be good for golf though Petros (and Samboz?).


That bloody Samboz, he wont venture down out of his arie up there in the moist green foothills surrounded by fat lambs trying to work out which one is next for a sumptuous spit roast (he hasn't invited you up yet??).

Besides, I don't want the extra competition, I'm the worst golfer in Maffra and I don't want to go through the emotional strain of having yet ANOTHER newbee push me down lower in the pecking order. Also I suspect he has connections "high up" - the current Royal Maffra Golf Club President might gang up with his Briagalong and foothills mates and demand a better performance from a townboy like me wink [edit] - jeez here comes the Briag spellun thing again..... frown
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/01/2015 19:24

Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak
Originally Posted By: Hells kitchen
Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak
Originally Posted By: logansi
GFS hinting at some hot to very hot temps late jan early feb - right when school starts GREAT!!


Hear hear! And so that means the bushfire risk will be back on once more... not good!! mad mad


It'll be all gone next model run. No hope for this fail at life crummer, it's a write-off.




Good... had better be gone! Otherwise it'll cost my area all that rain that we DESPERATELY needed! And I'm sure people like Doogasnow, Darkhazord, and Lucy will agree. smile


yes,most def agree guys smile

Good drying day today,mid twenties and a pretty stiff nw wind blowing!
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/01/2015 19:25

Cant really see any good rains coming over the next week or so,but to go with that,there's not really any super hot temps either smile
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/01/2015 19:27

Originally Posted By: logansi
GFS hinting at some hot to very hot temps late jan early feb - right when school starts GREAT!!


On what gfs chart do you see this logansi?Do u have access to a longer range chart?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/01/2015 19:42

The next 8-10 days (to me, going by GFS/ACCG) don't show any heat wave event building up for Vic. This could end up being a relatively "Temperate January"?

I have no idea what Feb will bring, ..bulike most Vic's I hope it might involve a WA cyclone to provide another NW cloudband into the "greedy Gippslander's" region. wink

... and if it does, I'll be calling apon the accomplished bush poet ThunderBob to post some suitable prose to capture the event!
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/01/2015 19:48

Originally Posted By: Petros
The next 8-10 days (to me, going by GFS/ACCG) don't show any heat wave event building up for Vic. This could end up being a relatively "Temperate January"?

I have no idea what Feb will bring, ..bulike most Vic's I hope it might involve a WA cyclone to provide another NW cloudband into the "greedy Gippslander's" region. wink

... and if it does, I'll be calling apon the accomplished bush poet ThunderBob to post some suitable prose to capture the event!


Yeah spot on petros,one more inch rain event and were home i reckon this summer in regards to bushfires!

Was out your way yesterday,its nice and greenish for this time of year!:)
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/01/2015 19:56

smile I'm sure t'b can delve into his lexion of prose and whip out the odd shakespearean prose to accomplish your wishes Mr. P*****, it's sure going nice so far.

P, as far as golf, on the one and only game in a lifetime, failed to qualify for the N.A.G.A. prize on the day at the Heyfield Course.

Pick up the spelling too thanks ..lol.. ;-)

Edit..must rush off, have to partake of a magnificent sheep curry that I whipped up !


Posted by: TheAnt

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/01/2015 20:35

Significant polar front at the end of the 7 day GFS run.
Posted by: Hells kitchen

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/01/2015 20:39

Originally Posted By: Petros
The next 8-10 days (to me, going by GFS/ACCG) don't show any heat wave event building up for Vic. This could end up being a relatively "Temperate January"?

I have no idea what Feb will bring, ..bulike most Vic's I hope it might involve a WA cyclone to provide another NW cloudband into the "greedy Gippslander's" region. wink

... and if it does, I'll be calling apon the accomplished bush poet ThunderBob to post some suitable prose to capture the event!


Feb will bring what Povember, Derpcember and Jagoffuary bought so far...
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/01/2015 17:16

Originally Posted By: Petros
The next 8-10 days (to me, going by GFS/ACCG) don't show any heat wave event building up for Vic. This could end up being a relatively "Temperate January"?

I have no idea what Feb will bring, ..bulike most Vic's I hope it might involve a WA cyclone to provide another NW cloudband into the "greedy Gippslander's" region. wink

... and if it does, I'll be calling apon the accomplished bush poet ThunderBob to post some suitable prose to capture the event!


Yeah, perhaps we new a new thread for the coming period:
"Jan 17 to Whenever: Nothing to see here. Please move along."

If a WA cyclone or low does give us another drench from the NW, Petros, I promise I will draw from the cornucopia of florid phrases to celebrate.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/01/2015 18:07

Originally Posted By: Hells kitchen
Originally Posted By: Petros
The next 8-10 days (to me, going by GFS/ACCG) don't show any heat wave event building up for Vic. This could end up being a relatively "Temperate January"?

I have no idea what Feb will bring, ..bulike most Vic's I hope it might involve a WA cyclone to provide another NW cloudband into the "greedy Gippslander's" region. wink

... and if it does, I'll be calling apon the accomplished bush poet ThunderBob to post some suitable prose to capture the event!


Feb will bring what Povember, Derpcember and Jagoffuary bought so far...


LOL, you crack me up HK
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/01/2015 18:09

Still hints of a cold front and/or low pressure trough swinging across parts of Victoria next week, so might bring some shower and thunderstorm action! Thoughts on this guys? smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/01/2015 18:45

ASF, they way I read it, GFS (only model updated atm) shows us getting grazed by frequent frontal systems crossing/grazing Vic in the 8 day outlook, but nothing screaming storms at me on the current run.

HK's got into my head, I'm going to sneak a slab of beer into a suitcase and catch a train with him to Mildura for a dose of warm weather and to get our share of the record global temperatures we are told we're presently experiencing. If we get kicked off at Ararat, then we'll hitch-hike to Darwin.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/01/2015 20:12

L O L laugh
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/01/2015 20:48

Yep - had enough of it now just crazy stupid, struggling up to 20 here and the end of the week looks even colder, without the first 3 days of Jan the month has been as cold as October.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/01/2015 21:41

WATL saying 1-5 mm on Wed.
Posted by: adon

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 08:02

Originally Posted By: Petros
ASF, they way I read it, GFS (only model updated atm) shows us getting grazed by frequent frontal systems crossing/grazing Vic in the 8 day outlook, but nothing screaming storms at me on the current run.

HK's got into my head, I'm going to sneak a slab of beer into a suitcase and catch a train with him to Mildura for a dose of warm weather and to get our share of the record global temperatures we are told we're presently experiencing. If we get kicked off at Ararat, then we'll hitch-hike to Darwin.


Good luck on the train to Mildura.......it stopped about 15 years ago! My suggestion would be rabbit flat. Plenty hot enough to satisfy any Melbourne temperature whingers out there.

Gotta giggle at some of the comments re temp in the last few weeks. If you are after summer heat might be best to move somewhere that actually gets hot......
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 09:58

Cold up here this morning,11c and some light showers to go with that.

So much for the hotter and dryer summer?? Its def colder and wetter imo
Still plenty of time left yet, but im starting to think we may escape a bad fire season this year,looking at the charts over the next 7 days there are no real high temps,but also the possibiliy of more rain in the coming week. smile
Posted by: Lucy

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 11:03

Gotta agree with you Adon, some people just like to whinge, whatever the temp. is up or down, never seem to be happy for some reason or another, I am loving the current weather over the past few weeks and week ahead, also love living with the reduced bushfire risk, and being able to go out in the garden and do something productive instead of WATERING and looking at my beloved plants struggle in the excessive heat waiting for some relief......
Lucy
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 11:06

I went to north QLD to get my heat fix grin

Please cue up some interesting weather upon my return.... I'm putting an order in for a supercell outbreak or a Cat 2 Cyclone poke

I still can't believe that you guys have only had one real warm spell so far. I wouldn't rule out a bad fire season yet doogasnow..... the grass will be growing well, and it wont take much to dry out, and then become a fire issue...grass fires can be intense.

Maybe we just have to be a little more patient......something I have been saying to myself since the end of 2012
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 13:11

Originally Posted By: Lucy
Gotta agree with you Adon, some people just like to whinge, whatever the temp. is up or down, never seem to be happy for some reason or another, I am loving the current weather over the past few weeks and week ahead, also love living with the reduced bushfire risk, and being able to go out in the garden and do something productive instead of WATERING and looking at my beloved plants struggle in the excessive heat waiting for some relief......
Lucy


Yeah agree lucy,its been great not having to stress (so far)about bad fire days and bushfires thats for sure!:)
It is probably now 60/40 green over dry,so if we can some how get even 5mm a week then that would just about do?
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 13:44

Summer is far from over, Feb and March to come guys.
Posted by: Hells kitchen

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 14:15

Well Lucy I like my summer heat and storms. You have the vast majority of the year here in Melbourne to enjoy wintry weather while comparatively us heat/storm lovers have a very limited few weeks for it, so I am well within my rights to complain when we get cold overcast stormless dross in summer thankyou very much.

I'm sure the second we get a day of 35 or 40C you'd be harping on about it as if it was a nuclear reactor meltdown. You should join the AWF, they are all allergic to summer and vilify those that like it, you'd fit right in.
Posted by: adon

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 14:58

HK before you start picking at others, just take a look at your own little sign off under your posts. Basically a huge whinge! Ask said earlier, if you want heat, what are you doing in Melbourne? The place is renowned for having multiple seasons in a day, so instead of bemoaning others who are enjoying the weather Melbourne is known for, find a nice place where the temp is more to your desires, Ethiopia would suit you quite well.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 15:28

Right now I'd exchange Melbournes weather for ours for a week or so, very oppressive up here atm.
Posted by: Hells kitchen

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 15:34

Originally Posted By: adon
HK before you start picking at others, just take a look at your own little sign off under your posts. Basically a huge whinge!

Actually, it's simply an observation of what is happening this summer.

Quote:
Ask said earlier, if you want heat, what are you doing in Melbourne? The place is renowned for having multiple seasons in a day, so instead of bemoaning others who are enjoying the weather Melbourne is known for, find a nice place where the temp is more to your desires,

What am I doing in Melbourne? Let me see:

-School
-Work
-Friends
-Family
-Accommodation

So it's okay for others to bemoan and pick on me when I want proper summer-like weather? Lucy has been guilty of this and all her reinforcements rush to her aid spruiking unsubstantiated claptrap and accusing me of being "insenstive" among other things simply because I express enjoyment of heat in summer. At the same time, it's perfectly acceptable for the mm bean counters to enjoy and hope for flooding-levels of rainfall. One poster on the AWF actually said "bring it on". Pathetic and hypocritical.

Quote:
Ethiopia would suit you quite well.

A chippy comment if there ever was one.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 15:35

Hear hear Adon! HK we CANNOT afford any more extreme heat! Unless it's accompanied by tropical humidity, heavy rainfall, and storms it is not welcomed! Remember that people like myself, Lucy, Doogasnow, and Darkhazord must live with a dangerous bushfire risk each summer. Please be mindful of that. mad frown
Posted by: Hells kitchen

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 15:51

Then move somewhere where there is no bushfire risk.

If people find it fit to tersely tell me to move.....
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 16:17

HK, in all honesty, maybe it isn't a bad idea to move, even if it's just temporary. Maybe next summer will be better in Melb. smile There's no point staying at a place that hate to the point of insanity. Chase your dreams and go to Mildura or somewhere else that compensates for your heat desire! smile Obviously if work or family is getting in the way, you may not be able to.

Also when a bushfire event gets to an extreme state like Black Saturday 2009 and Ash Wednesday 1983, it's not just as simple as saying "move where there is no bushfire risk", because almost everywhere in Victoria is bushfire prone in such large scale events.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 16:40

Thanks Sea-Mist. Yes it's not that simple for us Victorians who live in fear of bushfire HK! frown
Posted by: Hells kitchen

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 16:45

Originally Posted By: Sea-Mist
HK, in all honesty, maybe it isn't a bad idea to move, even if it's just temporary. Maybe next summer will be better in Melb. smile There's no point staying at a place that hate to the point of insanity. Chase your dreams and go to Mildura or somewhere else that compensates for your heat desire! smile Obviously if work or family is getting in the way, you may not be able to.

Also when a bushfire event gets to an extreme state like Black Saturday 2009 and Ash Wednesday 1983, it's not just as simple as saying "move where there is no bushfire risk", because almost everywhere in Victoria is bushfire prone in such large scale events.


I dont "hate" Melbourne as a city, just hate its weather. I do plan to move sometime this year but really do have to finish off my course first. Looking at the forecast puts me off even Mildura right now! I've always been fond of the coastal climate from Sydney northwards with the mild-warm summer low temps (even in southerlies) and adequately warm summer days with some heat blasts every now and then.

Just really, really ticks me off when I get constantly ragged on for wanting some decent summer weather while at the same time others getting excited over several hundred mm of flooding rain is perfectly okay. I just don't understand this mentality. Then I get accused of "whinging and whining" by certain people, but if it were to heat up, the very same person(s) would be constantly harping on about it, spuiking all sorts of hyperbole and fear mongering.
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 17:25

This summer has just been crap for Victoria. There's no two ways about it. You can only hope that you have better weather next season. Last year we had the worst storm season ever and no heat. There was nothing we could do about it. But at least we have plenty of sunny days and no particularly humid ones that season.

You've gotta look at the positives HK- At least there have been no lives lost this season from bushfires or floods (that I know of). That's a good thing.

And to everyone- You guys have to realise your differences; many like the cool weather and some (notably HK) like the heat. That's okay because everyone has different opinions and tastes. The variety of people and their preferences on this forum is one of the things that makes it great. Differences are a normal part of life. If you guys don't come to terms with your differences and accept them, this Victorian forum could turn into $**ť. I don't want to see that happen...
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 17:45

I agree with sea mist.... deal with your differences, there aren't a lot of people in the vic thread that post often.... don't drive them away with BS about who like certain weather... Gotta keep on topic

I like severe weather....people don't like my views, so what I come to a weather forum to learn and talk about said weather. ASF shouldn't get up me if I look forward to a fire danger period... I'm with the CFA and while dangerous I'd like to put what I have learnt into practise. But nor should I get up him for wanting mild weather.

we are all interested in the weather so rather debate what preferences we have, why don't we talk about possible events to come?

This year, so far is shaping up to be milder than average but remember, we have Feb, March... I do hope we can snag at least 1 or 2 more severe storm outbreaks...

No more S*** posting please.....
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 17:49

Whether the weather be fine,
Or whether the weather be not,
Whether the weather be cold,
Or whether the weather be hot,
We'll weather the weather,
Whatever the whether,
Whether we like it or not.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 17:50

or ... if you prefer .... en Espanol ...

Que est bueno el tiempo,
O que el tiempo no lo est,
Que est fro el tiempo,
O que caliente est,
Sobreviviremos al tiempo,
Est como est el tiempo,
Que nos guste o no.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 18:11

Originally Posted By: Dawoodman
I agree with sea mist.... deal with your differences, there aren't a lot of people in the vic thread that post often.... don't drive them away with BS about who like certain weather... Gotta keep on topic

I like severe weather....people don't like my views, so what I come to a weather forum to learn and talk about said weather. ASF shouldn't get up me if I look forward to a fire danger period... I'm with the CFA and while dangerous I'd like to put what I have learnt into practise. But nor should I get up him for wanting mild weather.

we are all interested in the weather so rather debate what preferences we have, why don't we talk about possible events to come?

This year, so far is shaping up to be milder than average but remember, we have Feb, March... I do hope we can snag at least 1 or 2 more severe storm outbreaks...

No more S*** posting please.....


I apologise Dawoodman. Sorry mate. frown
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 18:16

If it makes you all feel any better, I think you guys have it good with Melbourne weather. I'm from Brisbane and even though we have a reasonable variety of weather in SE QLD from snow on the ranges and some frosty winter nights to large hail, the odd tornado, etc, I've always loved Melbourne weather (and the city) as well.

Some locals might not like it when it suddenly goes cool and drizzly, and stays that way but I love that.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 18:38

Again my apologies to Dawoodman, and I apologise to HK and to anyone else I might have upset. Sorry guys! frown

Going back to the discussion...

Should we set up a topic for the low pressure trough and/or cold front that's likely to swing across Victoria this week? Might bring some more welcome rain and maybe even a thunderstorm here and there. Thoughts? smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 18:52

We are all here because the weather interests us. I'm probably worst culprit to react to some rants over the years, but in all reality, we all hoping for different aspects of the pending systems as they evolve.

Its natural, and sometimes entertaining when folk express the frustration, and sometimes the experience of what evolves. We've just got to remember that they are only referring to weather, not others, so we don't need to add personal attacks when we post to express our own opinions. (you could probably read this post as a "Petros - note to self! wink ).
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 18:54

Heres AccR's latest, which shows Tuesdays frontal system, I notice BOM are not mentioning storms with this, just circa 2.5mm rain (going by AccR below), what do others think? - could there be a storm about on Tuesday?
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 19:11

Still I feel ashamed for comments. I should've been a bit more comtrolled, but if it weren't for people like Petros, Sea-Mist and Dawoodman I probably would've gone too far. Sorry people. frown

Yeah maybe some storms about this week. Probably won't amount to much, but hoping some more good summer rain may develop as well to hold back the bushfire risk. smile
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 19:37

Come on ASF, your one of the nicest blokes on this forum so don't feel bad about your comments dude! They weren't that bad anyways, you were only stating your honest opinion, just like I was. Also, just remember that me, Petros, Thunderbob and Dawoodman's comments were not directed at you, but this forum as a whole. Cheer up mate. smile
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 19:59

GFS 16 day has some extended warmth starting at the end of Jan - YAY smile smile smile !!! Dont need extreme heat, right now something over 20 would be nice - oh and too see the sun too....
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 20:22

Yeah,were all here for the same reason and thats because we all very passionate about and love the weather.Were all different and like various aspects of weather and all come from different areas of the state and beyond,I find it so interesting to hear each and everyones opinion and reports on every event that comes through and to me thats what its all about smile Compared to some people on this forum i only know the basics about weather,but i totally respect and try to learn as much as i can from u guys opinions smile
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 20:27

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
If it makes you all feel any better, I think you guys have it good with Melbourne weather. I'm from Brisbane and even though we have a reasonable variety of weather in SE QLD from snow on the ranges and some frosty winter nights to large hail, the odd tornado, etc, I've always loved Melbourne weather (and the city) as well.

Some locals might not like it when it suddenly goes cool and drizzly, and stays that way but I love that.


I agree, believe it or not I do miss Melbournes winters
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/01/2015 22:17

Thanks Sea-Mist! smile
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/01/2015 09:26

This heat event - looking to start around the 27th is looking to be quite significant if it turns out as forecast, with GFS running it until at least the 3rd of Feb if not longer. so at least a week of what i expect to be above average temps for most.

Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/01/2015 09:43

Lol just in time for when school starts. How ironic..
Posted by: balmz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/01/2015 09:49

Please don't stop posting HK,

I know it's been said before by everyone last night with some great posts, however I wanted to throw in my 2 cents.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion and freedom of expression, despite what many recent world events would have us all think.

We all love the weather and that's why its so frustrating because it serves up something different all the time, and as we are all human beings, not everyone likes the same thing.

People can cheer the summer heat and hate the summer cold just the same as people can cheer the cool summers and hate the summer heat.

I've lived all over Australia, Grew up in Melbourne, lived in Brisbane, Darwin, Sydney for a bit and now Canberra, so I've enjoyed a lot of Australia's wonderful weather.

For everyone saying "move if you don't like it" I'd remind everyone that it's not always possible to just pick up and move out of or to a location simply because you don't like the weather. People have families, friends, jobs, financial situations to consider. It's easy to just say. "Move if you don't like it."

Let them whinge, let them cheer, but at the end of the day we are all here discussing the same thing.

Anyway, back to the weather, I'm coming home to Melbourne this coming long weekend, hoping for some nice sunny warm temperatures perfect for the Aus day BBQ and pool session but early forecasts suggest I'll be a bit disappointed!

There is my whinge smile
Posted by: Gabby

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/01/2015 10:00

February, from memory, not records, has always been the hottest summer month. The first few weeks of term One at school was mostly very hot and uncomfortable, especially when on playground duty. So let's bide our time and hope that February provides us with some reasonable summer heat. From a personal point of view I am quite enjoying the days here in the high twenties, but the pool is not getting a lot of use. South Australia is certainly getting its fair share of rain (a once in forty year event according to BoM) I wonder how much of it will come our way? Tomorrow 30c with 70% chance of 5 - 10mm for Yarrawonga. The odds (70%) are not looking good!
Posted by: Wave Rider

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/01/2015 10:37

I agree balmz, yes HK, please don't stop posting. Your posts are quite valuable and humourous. Also for the record I said that he should move if he hates it, but I did consider work and family if you read my post carefully.

It's a bit different over here, Gabby. Usually January is the hottest month in this area, as February is usually rainier and more humid here. So most the time I escape the extreme heat at school. Of course sometimes February can be really hot. My first week of year 7 in 2011 featured a few days of extreme heat.

Have fun back in your hometown, balmz. smile
Posted by: liberator

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/01/2015 13:00

It's like my brother and I. I hate the heat and love the cold and he hates the cold and loves the heat. I remember the day of those bushfires that took so many lives. I drove to Melbourne to help my brother work on a deck around his pool. It was 47 degrees and he was outside in full sun working on his deck. I looked at him and shook my head and said I'm not bloody well working in this heat and then jumped into his pool.
He hated the cold Melbourne weather. So what did he do - he moved well away from it. He was looking at Mildura - but his line of work made Wodonga the better choice. He now has the warm weather he craves so much. He's wife was heard asking the neighbours does it ever bloody well cool down around here?
I live in northern Victoria and I tolerate the heat. I love to swim, love the water so I take the good with the bad. If I could I'd move south - Tasmania. But the family wont have a bar of it.
Posted by: Weather_Viewer

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/01/2015 17:01

Well for those who would like a bit more Summer warmth. The latest BOM forecast in Melbourne looks to be improving, nothing hot but pleasant.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/01/2015 19:13

BOM now suggesting storms about tomorrow with the weak front passing, maybe we'll get a repeat dose over the weekend??

Both changes may give us something to keep an eye on skywards, ..but little general rain other than those lucky enough to be under a storm. And STILL no multi-day hot event "out there" for Vic??
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/01/2015 19:34

Originally Posted By: logansi
This heat event - looking to start around the 27th is looking to be quite significant if it turns out as forecast, with GFS running it until at least the 3rd of Feb if not longer. so at least a week of what i expect to be above average temps for most.





Very interested in the outcome of this senario logansi,you have been suggesting this now for a few days now.

Keeping in mind that the heatwave your talking about,i hope what 'petros' is hinting at rain wise then comes off this week to smile
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/01/2015 19:37

Freezing last night up here(for jan lol)!! Overnight low of 7c which i have never seen it that cold overnight in 'jan' since my 3 years ive been here!
Posted by: The Fishman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/01/2015 18:46

There is an event going on in the east!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/01/2015 19:03

Yep TF, getting keen on seeing a flash n rumble here tonight after seeing your heads-up!:

I dropped into Sale on the trip home 90 mins ago and heard 2 rumbles from a weak looking high based cloud mass, and plenty of Cu and turkey necks "wannabeeing" around the area in general.

A light easterly has allowed the humidity that creeped up in N Gippy over the day to remain, so we could be in with a chance in the couple of hours or so smile (with appologies to those who have missed out W of Hallam).
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/01/2015 13:24

Today strong wind shear pumping to North from South in Victoria.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/01/2015 18:39

Wow, what an unusual summer for Vic (and I mean from week 2 Jan onwards)!

Present climatic conditions continue to prevent the usual early/mid Jan W-E elongated weak high pressure systems from getting established below Vic's Latitude that typically divorces us from the southern maritime "roaring 40's whirl pool" and instead of continually passing us by below, is holding at bay any chance of a high to establish off NSW's E which typically creates the Vic summer dry hot fire weather > 2 day spells.

Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/01/2015 01:18

Very interesting along next week is Easterly Trade wind still braking heatwave in Northern to NW WA Australia.
Which helps no Gusty NW wind hot heat thanks to jet stream crossing Victoria to Queensland.
Felt this January weather pattern changed not same last 2014.
As 1st or 2nd week of February looks like heatwave is sign by jet stream changes.
Posted by: Hells kitchen

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/01/2015 09:54

Nothing even resembling heat in Feb in the extended models. Just more of the same old southerly tripe.

Can't wait for this piece of crap crummer to be over. This is far and away one of the worst crummers in recorded history, both for the cold and the lack of storms. mad
Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/01/2015 16:39

~30mm showing on the longer range GFS, yes please!
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/01/2015 16:41

Originally Posted By: davidm
~30mm showing on the longer range GFS, yes please!


Yay!! More rain for Melbourne and the Dandenong Ranges please!! grin
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/01/2015 19:40

I started a thread for this potential event.

Vic - Easterly Dip potential rain event 28/1/15 - 3/2/15
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/01/2015 12:29

Latest GFS ensemble forecast for Melbourne (below) still suggesting cooler than normal conditions during the next several days although it becomes undecided later on in the first week of next month:

https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8650/16358452992_28f64b9db1_c.jpg

Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 31/01/2015 12:29

I wonder if we can snag any bits of now formed tropical cyclone ola... Potential for a new ECL if it transitions into an extra tropical system
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/02/2015 11:04

Have noticed accessg predicting a fairly sustained warm period begining later next week with no rain in site.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/02/2015 09:41

A quick glance at some ensembles also suggests the chance of hotter and drier than normal conditions coming up for a lot of Australia during the coming weeks.

Here's the latest precip anomaly suggestion from CFSV2 via Levi Cowan's website between days 8 and 14 from now and temp anomalies from the GFS ensemble for Melbourne:

https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7312/16235226310_2203e7210b_c.jpg
https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7346/15802578483_102d63f597_c.jpg



Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/02/2015 10:21

Hopefully the predicted conditions won't come to fruition. All that wonderful mid-summer rain coulx be lost here in Melbourne's Dandenong Ranges, leaving us with a potentially dangerous bushfire risk! No wonder I have an absolute hatred of hot, dry summer weather!! frown mad

And hopefully it won't affect the 2014/2015 Wet Season up in the Top End too much, I'm off to Darwin for a fortnight next week. If I have to endure hotter conditions, fine, but I don't want my monsoonal heavy rains and tropical thunderstorms taken from me!! frown mad
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/02/2015 10:58

Love the dark spot over townsville....pretty typical poke It would be nice for a return of the 28-30C days just to give us some summer weather though
Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/02/2015 14:56

Noooo don't say that Ken, I got the taste of rain from that solitary shower.

Can you have a chat with your bosses to make it rain?
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/02/2015 16:27

YAY, can't wait! 15 days without a day over 22C i would accept 40 right now!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/02/2015 20:56

Going by the latest 10 day AccR outlook, other than the chance of a "normal" SW'ly change in 8-9 days time, and the absence of the "red hot air line" being anywhere near Vic in that outlook, ...I reckon theres a chance that Vic's "Summer" will be in the form of a March "Indian Summer".

That would mean no significant bushfires for E Vic. But not so for NW Vic (on which I have no idea).
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/02/2015 18:49

... but, Petros, have you looked at GFS about 12 days out? Easterly dip, cut-off low? Interesting?
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/02/2015 19:00

Originally Posted By: Dawoodman
Love the dark spot over townsville....pretty typical poke It would be nice for a return of the 28-30C days just to give us some summer weather though


Wondered where hk was ..... flat hunting maybe ?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/02/2015 20:09

Please don't think I'm suggesting that this "Day 10"scenario will pan out.

But I post this to show what the BOM 10 day forecast thinks may transpire.

IF its correct, some Vic regions could almost write off this seasons fire threat. (At least I hope so!!).



.... which pretty much supports the extended GFS TB?
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/02/2015 20:12

Yes, it does, Petros. Something to keep our attention over the next week or so :-)))))
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/02/2015 23:07

Looks encouraging! Hope it comes off as a welcome late-summer surprise with rain and storms for Victoria! Pity it couldn't happen before or after my trip to Darwin but hopefully I'll get something back here in Melbourne during the final week of February. smile

Thoughts are currently turned to the early part of the upcoming heatwave (if you call it that, more like a hot spell), and of course to the tropical north for any signs that the monsoon is back in action! smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/02/2015 18:54

Latest AccG, while reducing the potential humid light rainy conditions in the outlook since yesterday, still comes up with a fire-less scenario in its outlook for most of Vic BAR the NW (folk in the NW need to stay alert for sure):
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/02/2015 18:59

Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak
Looks encouraging! Hope it comes off as a welcome late-summer surprise with rain and storms for Victoria! Pity it couldn't happen before or after my trip to Darwin but hopefully I'll get something back here in Melbourne during the final week of February. smile

Thoughts are currently turned to the early part of the upcoming heatwave (if you call it that, more like a hot spell), and of course to the tropical north for any signs that the monsoon is back in action! smile


If you are heading to darwin and there is the potential for those cyclones, I'd say you are more likely going to run into some good storms before us, but unfortunately for you it might make the fishing uncomfortable poke
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/02/2015 18:35

BoM have 37 Forecast for next saturday
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/02/2015 18:20

Yeah, next Wed & Sat seem the warm one, but its all a hotspotch imo, between heat build up attempts, we seem to have moist NE'ly humid conditions vying to establish also.

Suffice to say, I can see a few humid nights a comin' for us in Vic over the next 10 days.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/02/2015 18:29

Originally Posted By: Dawoodman
Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak
Looks encouraging! Hope it comes off as a welcome late-summer surprise with rain and storms for Victoria! Pity it couldn't happen before or after my trip to Darwin but hopefully I'll get something back here in Melbourne during the final week of February. smile

Thoughts are currently turned to the early part of the upcoming heatwave (if you call it that, more like a hot spell), and of course to the tropical north for any signs that the monsoon is back in action! smile


If you are heading to darwin and there is the potential for those cyclones, I'd say you are more likely going to run into some good storms before us, but unfortunately for you it might make the fishing uncomfortable poke


Lol all good I'm not a fishing type, I find it too slow and boring tbh! No offence to those who enjoy fishing but I'd much rather get out and enjoy watching, filming and photographing storms and other weather phenomena. smile

But yes some uncomfortable weather ahead for me starting tomorrow afternoon! poke
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/02/2015 19:32

Originally Posted By: Petros
Yeah, next Wed & Sat seem the warm one, but its all a hotspotch imo, between heat build up attempts, we seem to have moist NE'ly humid conditions vying to establish also.

Suffice to say, I can see a few humid nights a comin' for us in Vic over the next 10 days.


Well said and i agree petros,its def an arm wrestle at the minute
between potentially strong heat or wether the humidity wins the battle to also potentially bring really good storms and rain??

50/50 atm imo
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/02/2015 19:42

Still not really sure what will pan out over the next 5-7
days or so ???
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/02/2015 11:35

This week looks too early to feel very cool to cold nights as heat during day then night drop to 12c last night..feels like March to April season.
Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/02/2015 13:45

BoM have been pegging storms "tomorrow" for the past few days, will be interesting to see if we get anything. Haven't been paying much attention to the models, just hitting the BoM storm forecast and the FDI charts. Might see some higher fire danger levels tomorrow, but nothing out of the ordinary for Feb.

The SCC SEVERE WEATHER INTEL is interesting for the following week. Shows storms every day for NE, both Gippslands, Alpine, Northern Country, and North Central. Thursday the only day without storms for Central. Wish they'd make these things available for public distribution wink

Quote:
Increasing humidity will make thunderstorm activity a risk across large portions of the State over the next
week. A frontal system moving across the State tomorrow is likely to kick off thunderstorms in the east but
there is also a slight chance of storms in the west with middle level instability behind the system.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/02/2015 13:57

Thats Great Davidm for isolated storm coming up during week.

I am sick of Melbourne weather:says hot and getting hotter as summer kicks in this week is not...there is no stable hot night since first week of January 2015. To say 35c to 40c is good enough to say very hot. Other problem for weather reading in Melbourne City is heat from buildings create more hot. Ok say Melbourne 35c and Shepparton 33c its impossible, Northern Victoria always get higher heat than Southern Ranges.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/02/2015 17:36

Plenty of rain indicated here -

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/agriculture/?lt=wzstate&lc=vic&c=14day&rc=14day&p=336

What do folks think ?
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/02/2015 17:49

BSCH has GFS charts suggesting that we may get a few chances at storms over the next week with emphasis on friday night grin the SWEAT index is rather high on friday night as well.

Might get a nasty storm friday, although it is GFS, might be exaggerating a little
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/02/2015 19:01

Originally Posted By: samboz


... that was for yesterday???
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/02/2015 19:02

Nice Cu build-up to our ENE late this arvo, shows things might become "electric" out this way in coming days?
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/02/2015 19:28

Close... :-}

Date at bottom of pic is today 0748hrs...?....and at top 09/02, but then it's plus 14 days, has/will it change accuracy of the forecast hugely given they are having a stab 14 days hence.

No idea how to find more recent, didn't realise it was worthless, sorry.

Cancel request for opinions.

Further info at - http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/raincast.html?ops=gfs:2015021000:0:192:vic:nul

Thanks for the site dawoodman.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/02/2015 19:31

samboz: That 07:48 timestamp is just the time the forecast chart was generated by the software program.
Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/02/2015 19:52

Only other place I've seen the 7-14 day GFS Accumulated Precip charts is here: http://www.australianweathernews.com/sitepages/forecasts/forecast_ww_rain.shtml

This is using the 00z output so is more recent, looks bloody good!
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/02/2015 20:04

Thanks davidm, very useful site with info even I can understand.
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/02/2015 20:28

mmm going off accessg there aint to much around imo,i think east gippy and north east will do best but even then still hit and miss?

another 15-20mm would be perfect here now,would just about knock out the potential for fires smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/02/2015 20:46

Originally Posted By: samboz
Close... :-}

Date at bottom of pic is today 0748hrs...?....and at top 09/02, but then it's plus 14 days, has/will it change accuracy of the forecast hugely given they are having a stab 14 days hence.

No idea how to find more recent, didn't realise it was worthless, sorry.

Cancel request for opinions.

Further info at - http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/raincast.html?ops=gfs:2015021000:0:192:vic:nul

Thanks for the site dawoodman.


No! Samboz. My bad. ..

That is a legitimate future run! Very sorry!
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/02/2015 21:34

No probs mate, I was wondering if much rain was possible.

GFS is optimistic perhaps dooga' compared to AccessG, a bit of rain would be handy.

Our district north of Maffra is borderline on a lot of the models.

Thanks kk.
Posted by: liberator

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/02/2015 12:42

another site to get those maps is here:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec7.html
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/02/2015 21:17

For my 2 bob's, the E Vic fire season is over in terms of severe fire from heron in...

See this AccG glimpse "out ahead":


If we were to receive severe fire from now onwards this season remaining, I'll try to ride a unicycle backwards from the Maffra crossing back to the Fig tree.
Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/02/2015 00:59

Jeez with a bet like that you'll have firebugs out every day!
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/02/2015 19:29

Agree petros,for at least the east gippsland district!Im still waiting for the inch of rain i think we need to bowl over this fire season?

Still not convinced going off accessg that we are going to get that much out of this system? We need it because back half of next week looking pretty warm imo
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/02/2015 13:31

A quick glance at a couple of the ensembles suggests the chance of somewhat cooler than normal conditions during the first week of next month around far southern parts of the continent... although VIC is near the edge of that signal so it may go either way. Some outputs below:

https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8650/16431922978_30642b12d9_c.jpg
https://farm9.staticflickr.com/8671/15996904704_e76b9efa3f_b.jpg



Posted by: Lucy

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/02/2015 14:10

Very Interesting, always find your posts valuable, Have had enough of this damn humidity and heat that's for sure tired
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/02/2015 18:19

Thanks Ken, we (folk I talk to around this dairy farming area) feel the autumn break is nigh, probably one more hot day (34-36C) for Melbourne next Saturday, then a nice autumn with mild temps and average rainfalls.

Gippsland is looking fantastic at the moment, plenty of greenness.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/02/2015 18:23

Thanks Lucy and Petros. Personally, I can't wait until my favourite time of year (late autumn/early winter).
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/02/2015 20:15

Sign me up for April/May KK, best weather of the year !
Posted by: Distant Sun

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/02/2015 13:19

I agree guys. Love the cooler and calm days of autumn and seeing the sun drop lower in the northern sky. Really noticing the days getting shorter now, sunrise not until 7am.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/02/2015 21:18

Looked out to 8-10 days, but sorry, nil significant to report (even from a near-future Wonthaggi'ites perspective).

Once the nuisance fires that will flare over Vic's NW tomorrow are put out, at least it means the end of the fire season in my opinion.

Bring on a March Indian summer!
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/02/2015 08:55

May be a little hope in this GFS extended forecast Petros, although in my (very limited) experience it's often inaccurate.

The 9mm on 05/03/2015 would be useful at this stage for the Autumn break.

http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weather.cgi?location=Valencia+Creek.VIC&forecast=gfsext

Now, what's this "near-future Wonthaggi'ites" - the R.M.G.C. bar takings will plummet and I'm sure you'll be sadly missed by them, all the best at Wonthaggi mate.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/03/2015 18:05

Looked out to 8-10 days, but sorry, nil significant to report (even from a near-future Wonthaggi'ites perspective).

Cant see any day with a temperature exceeding 24-27 C in the next 7 day outlook (reference: TWC, because GFS/AccG haven't updated yet).

Bring on a March Indian summer!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/03/2015 18:08

Originally Posted By: samboz

.....Now, what's this "near-future Wonthaggi'ites" - the R.M.G.C. bar takings will plummet and I'm sure you'll be sadly missed by them, all the best at Wonthaggi mate.



Been summonsed back to to the Desal to cover a labour shortage down there till early June, start in a couple of weeks, so will be reporting Inverloch weather again soon. Hopefully will NOT be reporting on the winter weather at Inverloch again.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/03/2015 20:53


Enjoy the change P.

Looking fwd to the coastal reports.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/03/2015 20:37

I see that EC is predicting basically a "polar outbreak" for E Vic tomorrow!!??



If this were to pan out, BOM would be sadly lacking in the forecasts for us out this way.
Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/03/2015 23:04

Spoke to colleague down in Tassie today, they had some big bushfires going and might be getting snow over the next couple of days. Crazy!

Definitely looks bloody cold and windy, but yeah not much in the forecasts. The SCC severe weather intel from yesterday is interesting:

Quote:
Successive runs of the global weather models have been steadily increasing the wind strengths associated
with this frontal system as it moves across southern Victoria early Thursday. Exposed coastal and elevated
locations over the South West, Central and West & South Gippsland districts are a risk of experiencing
damaging wind gusts near 90 km/h for a few hours early Thursday morning. Current guidance suggests the
risk is marginal.


If there's the slightest risk of damaging winds coming from the south then I should cop a good amount of it, as long as it doesn't run out of steam before it gets up here.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/03/2015 17:21

Lasts nights version of AccG mooted an easterly dip scenario to affect Vic in 8 days time. Will be interesting to see the latest run, and to see if GFS becomes interested or not.

Normally an active time of the year for Vic, but despite 3 cyclones to the N, Vic if left "clutching at straws". frown
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/03/2015 19:11

Originally Posted By: Petros
Lasts nights version of AccG mooted an easterly dip scenario to affect Vic in 8 days time. Will be interesting to see the latest run, and to see if GFS becomes interested or not.

Normally an active time of the year for Vic, but despite 3 cyclones to the N, Vic if left "clutching at straws". frown


Yes, it's normally a relatively busy time of year for Victoria, although I consider March to be a kinda "transition" month between the varied, stormy winter/spring/summer period and the quieter, settled conditions of mid/late autumn (April and May).

Anyway, I wouldn't be too disappointed just yet. I've got a sneaky suspicion that some wind and rain (maybe even a storm or two) could result if we get the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Olwyn sometime next week. smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/03/2015 18:45

There is 3 cold fronts to brush Vic in the GFS/AccG 8-10 day outlook, but none of them look to me to be significant thunder producers.

Nor can they be (even collectively) be classed as the "Autumn Break".

Pretty boring weather in the Gippsland area, but great for the Dept of Scorched Earth..... observed heaps of burns evident from last week, and going again today, from Vic border to Bruthen. Its going to be a smokey old late March/April for us Gippslander's I reckon.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/03/2015 19:01

24 hrs later, ditto to above.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/03/2015 18:06

There is a grunty cold change due overnight Wednesday that should see most in Vic's South waking to a cold showery taste of pre-winter weather.

Perhaps a better chance of a bit of thunder/coldie than todays weak change, but at least something for us to observe after a dull few weeks smile

Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/03/2015 19:23

Yes, ACCESS has a pretty vigorous cold outbreak heading our way later this week! Time for a new thread guys. smile
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/04/2015 20:15

Access has an epic cold blast coming up this time next week lol
The 528 line nudging vic coast which would just about bring snow at my place!Know doubt this will change a fair degree between now
and then but one to def watch smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/04/2015 09:47

Bom mentioned that front on the radio this morning. Snow next weekend?
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/04/2015 10:51

Fingers crossed! Hoping also for some coldie action with heavy rainfall and perhaps hail and thunder for Melbourne next weekend! smile
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/04/2015 13:55

Below is a thickness plume forecast for Melbourne from the last 3 runs of the NCEP ensemble showing how all the potential scenarios are distributed between 7 and 14 days from now.

You can see a proportion of the scenarios currently dipping down to or beloe 5400m in about a week's time although not all of them are sold on the idea:

Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/04/2015 17:06

Let's not forget the system to the west - the trough/low (correct me if I'm wrong, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ikola?). smile

This analysis according to the synoptic charts and ACCESS:

Once this present cold front passes tomorrow, then the low and trough will approach Victoria late-Tuesday into Wednesday, with another cold front following close behind late on Wednesday. As this second front retreats into the Tasman Sea on Thursday, the trough is likely to break free and shift into the Outback. smile

Then things get more exciting! The new cold front that ACCESS has scheduled for next weekend (which you guys above mentioned) rips into the Great Australian Bight late-Thursday into Friday. Not sure what ACCESS has to show regarding the trough, but the synoptic charts seem to hint at it shifting back south into Victoria on Friday/Saturday as the front approaches. smile

The coming seven-day period looks interesting, hoping for more than just a wintry cold outbreak with alpine snow but also some good soaking rain and possible storms! smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/04/2015 18:53

Great script Ken! - based on that, ASF's observations and the latest WZ model runs, it seems to me that SE Aus will have a moisture stream (N/W cloudband) overhead later this coming week, but (although a cut off low is a possibility) the weight of numbers suggest that Vic may experience little more than a grazing cold front?

Well that's if I'm reading the runes right! wink
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/04/2015 19:50

Still holding pretty firm on a fairly substantual cold blast next weekend!
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/04/2015 21:20

The latest synoptic analysis suggests that the trough will cross Victoria on Wednesday, but then shift north into NSW/ACT and Queensland and stay there, only linking up with the cold front as it moves up the East Coast on Saturday, instead of dipping back south on Friday/Saturday as I had hoped. frown

But still room and time for change. Meantime, I'll get a new thread ready to go for the upcoming 7-10 day period! smile
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/04/2015 18:35

Petros: thanks smile It's worth remembering though that the model whose data generates that graphic tends to be fairly conservative at longer ranges with how far north it pushes cold air to.

Meanwhile, the current output from NAEFS suggests cooler than normal conditions could continue through the 7 to 14 days (from now) period:

Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/04/2015 18:24

Looks like another ECL/southerly system to impact Vic into next weekend according to EC (and ASF today!):

Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/04/2015 18:42

Lol gfs is off the ricta for this coming friday on tonights run lol

All models in agree that something fairly cold and strong will
eventuate by this weekend and hang around for a few days after smile
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/04/2015 21:30

Clear sky tonight, feels like those terrific stable winter periods with cool mornings and sunny days.

Might be warmer than the BOM daily forecasts of M/17, T/18, W/19, Th/19 with some luck.

I'm getting very sceptical of forecasts and models, is that normal....lol
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/04/2015 06:21

They do a fairly good job on average. Of course, there'll be times when they're off, just like anything/anyone else. I've been keeping a bit of a personal record of some comparisons between model forecasts and what's actually happened just out of interest... here's some results:

https://www.flickr.com/photos/9687852@N07/sets/72157649661786521/
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/04/2015 12:52

Latest synoptic analysis hints at a rather complex pattern unfolding across Victoria over the next 7-10 period, but in general it'll be cool/mild and damp with a reasonable amount of rain in store. At least for those of us in the Southern districts (including Melbourne, Gippsland, the Alpine region, Southwest, etc). smile

The current ECL that's taking shape over NSW/ACT and Queensland (courtesy of the past weekend's cold front merging with late week's trough and upper level disturbance over the East Coast) should slowly slide south.

Coupled with a high to the southwest (and another cold front well south of the Great Australian Bight), persistent onshore flow to the west of the low should maintain showery winds from Bass Strait from today onwards. Then another cold front arrives on Friday, linking into the low in the Tasman, and sending up a vigorous cold pool in time for the weekend. The cold pool could organise into a second ECL according to ACCESS! And then yet another cold front arrives late-Sunday/Monday, reinforcing the cold air mass!

Hate the cold air, but love the sound of more rainfall! smile
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/04/2015 17:05

Thanks Ken, I'll have a good look at them tonight, interesting pics.
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/04/2015 20:47

Gfs is still looking mighty cold on tonights run imo!
Looks like we get one blast on friday night/sat and another on
monday!Extended period of cold weather either way.
Accessg dosent quiet agree,having more a cut off type low
forming.
Plenty of snow to come i think!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/04/2015 18:49

Re 25-27/415 next weekend, what an amazing mix!

We should have a near stationary decaying ECL off SE Aus, a cold air mass/mature cut off low approaching up NE'wards from the Southern ocean, AND a NW cloudband to add Indian Ocean moisture into the mix.

Here's how that mix sits now from the space station:

Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/04/2015 20:01

Interesting times ahead indeed for this weekend petros!
Alot of dif senarios that we could throw up to look at,i think the models currently showing alot of uncertainty whilst the ecl is wound up.Once this starts weakening and moves away a little then that will let everything thats coming up from the west side sort itself out. Could be a cut off senario like it currently is at present, or it could turn out to be a traditional sw cold blast
??
Love watching all this unfold smile
Posted by: balmz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/04/2015 23:19

Sure is looking really interesting for this weekend in VIC. I'll be down in Melbourne this weekend for Anzac day. As a returned Veteran i'll be at the dawn service then in the CBD most of the day! Looking like its going to be very cold & wet! Hope there is still a good turn out for the services.

Love watching all this unfold!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/04/2015 19:13

Welcome down here Balmz - for my 2 bobs, it'll be cold Saturday morning but showers (the evening before) should be over before the daybreak I hope.
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/04/2015 20:37

One thing that is pretty much for certain is that sunday through wednesday has a sustained cold sw wind that will blow resulting in fairly showery conditions through southern vic for that period!

I still feel this whole senario has a fair bit to play out yet smile
Have seen this set up before, were the sw stays in play for 3-4 days and this inturn sucks up cold blast after cold blast!
Very interesting week to come smile
Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/04/2015 14:22

The far end of the latest ACCESS run sure is an interesting one. Filed away in the 'way too early' box, but impressive:



GFS definitely isn't on board with the same scenario, the CMC chart has some interesting signals near the end, but I wouldn't trust that one.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/04/2015 11:44

Yep DM - todays updates still keen on a decent weather event the coming weekend!

CMC/GFS & AccG all are keen on an easterly dip scenario to form over Qld mid week, which may morph into an ECL when the trough moves to the coast later in week. Then the ECL to wander down southwards and impact on Vic into next weekend?

As DM says, early days, but could be on the cards, ....this April has been a prolific "ECL spawner" for sure! - so who knows? - worth watching in future model runs!

GFS:

Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/04/2015 13:43

Yes looks promising, with the synoptic charts and ACCESS all falling in line with GFS for next weekend! First a trough develops over Queensland and/or the Coral Sea and dips southward through NSW/ACT this week; meanwhile, another powerful Antarctic cold front charges north across the Southern Ocean, bursts across Victoria (hence another potential wintry cold outbreak ahead for us) and then adds an injection of polar air into the trough over the East Coast. Could easily spawn another ECL as stated above! One to watch over the coming 7-10 day period guys! wink
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/04/2015 15:06

Below is the latest spaghetti plot for between 7 and 14 days from now, and an ECL probability map for the period between this Thu and next Mon generated using three ensembles.

Note that the two aren't the same - the spaghetti plot is simply MSLP while the ECL map shows the chances of where there might be enough strong vorticity or clockwise rotation in the lower levels that indicates a low:



Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/04/2015 17:56

Pretty smart stuff as usual Ken, thanks for sharing. There seems to be an increasing chance that low pressure and hopefully vorticity may be about in SE Aus next weekend.

Latest GFS is out:



.... and this shows what DM was attempting to alert us to what may eventuate AFTER the "drift-down ECL" during next weekend (in his previous post which I didn't include in my post above). ....But I should have (sorry). ...A Mannick Monday?? (if the cards fall this way wink ).
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/04/2015 19:58

Very very curious to see what eventuates out of this set up next weekend ?

I think what we can certainly presume,is that there is going to be almost def some sort of cold strongish weather system that hits us,just a matter of waiting to see how it will form and see how generous antartica is feeling in the amount of cold air it sends up our way smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/04/2015 18:11

Latest GFS run now showing the SM blast after the weekend wont interact with the "Easterly Dip-induced ECL" - the ECL remnants will be NZ's problem by then!

Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/04/2015 19:50

I'm not a fan of the latest GFS run... 1mm in the next 7 days? Come on GFS, you can do better than that!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/04/2015 18:31

No different today either DM, ....models not keen on any Vic influence from NSW ECL into next weekend, and the cold air arriving early next week is showing as a winter-type cold front (snow the only thing remarkable).
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/04/2015 18:53

Agreed Petros! ACCESS has the ECL retreating into the Tasman Sea from the NSW Coast; it's unlikely to travel far enough south to affect Victoria much. Looks like we'll have to place our bets on the cold fronts that are being thrown at us next week. poke
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/04/2015 19:26

Errr I should've gone into a bit more detail... poke

Anyway, ACCESS currently has the potential ECL forming within a inland trough about midway up the East Coast (around Northeast NSW/Southeast Queensland, including Brisbane and the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast regions) during the latter half of this week. The low slips southeast into the Tasman Sea. However, the synoptic pattern says it might keep going down south along the coast towards the Sydney area. Either way, it's impact on Victoria will be minimal at best at this stage.

But eyes turned back west instead of north, ACCESS and the synoptic charts have a few vigorous wintry cold fronts waltzing across the Southern Ocean, with the first one striking Victoria around Monday, and then a second one brushing by late next week. Also add into the equation, the remnants of a late-season tropical low/tropical cyclone from the WA Pilbara and Indian Ocean! smile
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/04/2015 19:41

Guessing the above has referred to the following -

ACCESS G, this evenings run for Next Monday 04/05/2015 at 2200hrs see - Surface Pressure&Rainfall / MSLP & Thickness models.

A long way off yet of course but the large band of rain cradled between the 532 and 544 lines could generate some good falls and snow if it makes landfall.

GFS at - http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/raincast.html?ops=gfs:2015042800:0:162:aus:nul -is not forecasting rain from approx Yarram to Lakes Ent. for that day, but dropping some in the high country to the north and on most of the State.

It'll be interesting to see what eventuates.

By gum, it's raining.........
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/04/2015 20:05

Gee the models are throwing up some very cold blasts from the south the whole way through next week! Its just a matter of wether or not they can push all the way through without the highs smothering??
Mighty cold if they can push up and through properly smile
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/04/2015 22:48

Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Gee the models are throwing up some very cold blasts from the south the whole way through next week! Its just a matter of wether or not they can push all the way through without the highs smothering??
Mighty cold if they can push up and through properly smile


Yes Doogasnow! Both the synoptic charts and ACCESS have some seriously powerful Antarctic cold fronts next week! grin

First front approaches during the weekend, but weakens into a trough and/or slips southeast past us. Then the second cold front charges across Victoria on Monday/Tuesday - perhaps an energy boost from the remnants of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Quang from the WA Pilbara, and/or from the troughs/potential ECL-event unfolding along the East Coast? smile

Then the cold pool gets reinforced by a westerly wind pattern from the Great Australian Bight, with a third potential cold front striking Victoria on Wednesday/Thursday! smile

One to watch! wink
Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/05/2015 17:23

Man the SCC forecast looks great, potential severe wind event for most districts on Monday and Tuesday, storms Tuesday!

Quote:
Saturday is forecast to be mostly cloudy as a weakening cold front reaches southwest Victoria in the afternoon then slips away to the southeast overnight. Isolated showers are possible during the day.
A temporary high pressure ridge will then set-up over Victoria on Sunday stabilising Victorias weather before eroding as a strong cold front approaches on Monday.
The latest modelling indicates northerly winds will strengthen on Monday with gusts reaching 80-100 km/h over the South West and southern Wimmera in the afternoon. This belt of stronger winds is then forecast to affect the Central, North Central and West & South Gippsland districts by Monday night. Wind strengths may peak near 110 km/h over the Alpine Region Monday night into Tuesday morning. Cloud cover and rain should tend to have a moderating influence on the wind, resulting in severe gusts being more isolated in nature.
The intensity of the northerly winds on Monday largely hinges on the interaction between decaying Tropical Cyclone Quang as it tracks across Western Australia and a cold front amplifying over the Southern Ocean as it approaches Victoria. There is potential for severe wind gusts to be more widespread in nature.
Localised west to northwest wind gusts of 80-100 km/h on continue on Tuesday affecting similar districts, but more likely over elevated exposed locations and the coastal zone. Gusts near 110 km/h possible over the Alpine region. Winds gradually moderating from the west during the afternoon and evening.
Rainfall totals on Monday predicted to be less than 5mm. Further rainfall on Tuesday, again mostly less than 5mm, however locally higher falls to 20mm over the South West, East Central, South Gippsland and Alpine districts are possible. Showers contracting to southern districts Tuesday afternoon and the coast at night.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/05/2015 17:59

Yes it looks like one of our first big windstorms for the season is about to head our way! The cold front itself looks intense, but it'll be interesting to see how things pan out when factoring in the remnants of Severe Tropical Cyclone Quang! smile

Time for a new thread... smile
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/05/2015 16:48

Here's a 2-week thickness plume forecast from a few of the models for Melbourne - many of the members are suggesting a fairly big dip mid next week:

Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/05/2015 17:53

AWESOMEKen. Looks exciting! ACCESS has strengthened this low level snow event to include VIC with 532 thickness across s/west coast , Ballarat ranges, and central and eastern quadrants ( 2/3rds of state) on the ~wednesday 13th may 2015.
In fact down to 528 thickness for s/west VIC , Melbourne , VIC alps region.. BONZA bounce
Any chance of getting the current thread extended a day to incorporate this possible low level snow event in mid may
Notice the 1040 hpa high helping to drive this cold polar air

Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/05/2015 20:51

Haven't seen much sub 532 over Vic this year, let alone 528 if it makes it.

Extending the current thread by Petros a couple of days would be good crikey.
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/05/2015 21:03

Both gfs and access are in line tonight, showing 528 line right into southern vic(as crikey points out on the above chart)
I think that would represent a decent low level snow fall to about the 500mtr level??

Certainly something to whatch closely and talk about!If the above senario comes off u would expect snow in areas like ballarat,trentham,macedon,mount dandey and through the strezleckis(including my place :))
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/05/2015 18:25

Latest thickness plume forecast for Melbourne and snowfall potential map:




Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/05/2015 19:34

Nice chart ken,does this represent a period of 528 thickness?

Whats your thoughts on snow level through southern vic?
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/05/2015 20:18

Is the scale on L the relevant one dooga, seems to coincide with models I've been looking at ie ..around 528 Tue/ Wed and a scale topping round 562. Yanks prob use different numeracy ie graduations of 5 unlike our grad. of 4.

Guessing smile

The snowfall pic is also consistent with other models, tightening up our expectations although still time for variation in the next 2 or 3 days.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/05/2015 10:55

doogasnow: I've only had a really quick glance at VIC but from what I saw, the last 2 runs of EC were suggesting a line-ball call as to whether 528 thickness values reach southern VIC. But 540 thickness values almost look a certainty. If thicknesses do get close to 528, I wouldn't be surprised if there was snow on the nearby hills near the outskirts of Melbourne as well as the other usual suspects (Mt Dandenong, etc). But it'd probably pay to look at other stuff such as thicknesses in the 1000-700hpa layer, moisture, 850hpa temps, etc.

samboz: If you're referring to the thickness graph, the scale on the left corresponds with the same values shown on standard thickness charts like those on WZ. 1000-500hpa thickness is the standard one shown on most public charts but there's other charts that also show thicknesses of shallower layers such as 1000-850hpa and 1000-700hpa depending on how shallow or deep the layer of cold or hot air is that you want to look at.

Those graduations or intervals on the graph don't have anything to do with what countries run those models. I simply chose intervals of 500m because the graph looks neater that way. Thickness units (either in metres or decametres) are the same in most countries and the interval or graduation chosen for charts is typically an even number like 4 or 6 decametres. Raw/unprocessed model outputs also use the same standard around the world no matter what country runs those models (e.g. m/s for wind speeds) but they can be converted to other units for the purposes of displaying on websites.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/05/2015 04:06

Many thanks Ken, yes referring to thickness graph - in summary, the above thickness graph shows a dip bottoming out round 5260 on Tuesday night (12/5) and that 5260 would be shown as an area adjacent to a 528 line on an Access Thickness map ?

Are the intervals in the above graph 50m or 500m ?

Rough night here, stong winds rattling the house and roaring through the red gums, no rain to speak of and quite warm @ 13.5C.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/05/2015 06:34

Yeah pretty much samboz, the graphic is simply a time-series graph of thickness for a point location (in this case, Melbourne). The majority of the scenarios in that graph bottom out between around 5350 and 5240m on Wed morning.

The intervals in the graph are 50m. Simply chop off the trailing 0 from the thickness values in the graph to convert to decametres.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/05/2015 07:31

Most obliged Ken, a couple of informative answers such as yours are invaluable to a beginner, thank you very much for your time and expertise. smile
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/05/2015 07:32

No worries!
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/05/2015 22:28

well Fellow victorians....... I am officially sick of the cold so I am going to go to america poke

I leave for my trip to the states tomorrow flying to brissie and then onwards to cali..... from the 23rd I will then be in Oklahoma city and I guess most of you know what I'll be there for..... STORMS!!!!

I am going to go an chase and hopefully get some stunning pictures while you guys battle the cold..... although I reckon I'll miss out on something so be ready for some sort of weather event poke
I will be testing a newly purchased lightning tracker and I'll be trying to gain some experience with storm forecasting.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/05/2015 22:56

Originally Posted By: Dawoodman
well Fellow victorians....... I am officially sick of the cold so I am going to go to america poke

I leave for my trip to the states tomorrow flying to brissie and then onwards to cali..... from the 23rd I will then be in Oklahoma city and I guess most of you know what I'll be there for..... STORMS!!!!

I am going to go an chase and hopefully get some stunning pictures while you guys battle the cold..... although I reckon I'll miss out on something so be ready for some sort of weather event poke
I will be testing a newly purchased lightning tracker and I'll be trying to gain some experience with storm forecasting.


Lol lucky duck you are Dawoodman! wink

Super jealous, I'm desperate for warmth too, and for the legendary severe thunderstorms that erupt and spin across the US Great Plains & Canadian Prairies (aka Tornado Alley) every year during their spring and summer (our autumn and winter lol). Have a great time mate, stay safe and take loads of footage! smile

Well at least I got to live one of my dreams earlier this year - Darwin in the Wet Season! Scorching heat, blinding humidity, and punishing heat index readings, but with enormous thunderstorms with torrential rainfall, at times ferocious winds, and dangerous lightning galore! And of course Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam coming ashore less than 500km to the east in Arnhem Land! smile

As for me, my thoughts are turned to the East Coast, as I might be heading north to Sydney for a few next month, where the weather will hopefully be a wee little bit warmer and sunnier than here in Melbourne lol. Much rather go to Cairns, Far North Queensland, or better still across the South Pacific to Fiji! Wouldn't mind also heading to Corryong, Northeast Victoria to see some snow about the NSW Snowy Mountains as well, might be visiting the Upper Murray en route to Sydney! smile

Anyway, enough of that, glad we've copped some nice rain and even low-level snow (and a few thunderstorms) recently, now onto the impending high, and then the potential trough/cut-off low scheduled for mid-next week, and then another system (born from two separate lows merged together and linking with a cold front) around the end of next week and following weekend according to ACCESS.

A temporary respite from the winter weather pattern unfolding, but thankfully I've registered some very welcome rainfall this month (over 60mm) to ensure that May 2015 doesn't end on a very dry note, even though we're barely halfway through lol. smile
Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/05/2015 02:29

Very cool Dawoodman, you're doing what most of us dream of! grin

Hope to see some awesome pics while you're over there wink

On the local side, does look like that trough next week could deliver some falls. Still gonna need loads more over winter, so fingers crossed these patterns continue. Sure as hell feels like winter, not sure whether this is expected though considering I only moved down here less than a year ago. One more month till my Victoriaversary! smile
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/05/2015 16:51

CFSV2 suggesting further rainfall might start spreading down from northwest Australia over southern parts of the continent again during the day 7 to 14 period from now:

Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/05/2015 18:54

Thanks Ken (if it comes off like this it will be a repeat performance of last years rain same dates - when a mob of us went to Corowa to play golf for 3 days). ....and we head off again on 31/5/15!
Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/05/2015 22:30

Can you make mine a double, Ken? grin
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/05/2015 19:18

Something very cold brewing late next week going off tonights charts imo
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/05/2015 20:02

Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Something very cold brewing late next week going off tonights charts imo


Indeed Doogasnow! smile

First off, a developing low pressure trough (the northwest cloudband that Ken, Petros, and Davidm mentioned). Should bring potentially heavy rain and thunderstorms to parts of WA as it taps into Indian Ocean moisture from tomorrow through to the early part of next week. smile

Then, a low pressure system swings north from Antarctica, with several intense cold fronts forming. The trough from WA links into the storm; winds veer into a northerly airflow across Victoria as a preceding high retreats into the Tasman Sea. By around Tuesday/Wednesday conditions deteriorate with showers and possible thunderstorms developing in response to the system from Tuesday onwards; the first cold blast strikes Thursday/Friday, with the second hitting by the weekend. smile

One to watch! wink
Posted by: crikey

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/05/2015 17:35

ACCESS confirming KENs forecast for some moisture from a n/west infeed . Possibly combining with a cold front /westerly belt bulge and very broad surface troughing . Shame its moving away quickly but could be an exciting one-2 dayer (~25th / 26thMay)

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/05/2015 06:46

No probs Petros. And I can't guarantee anything davidm poke

NAEFS is still suggesting further coldness for much of the southeastern half of the continent between 7 and 14 days from now albeit with a bit of a neutral patch in the middle:

Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/05/2015 18:10

Still looking interesting for cold and snow to lower levels for early to mid next week:


Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/06/2015 17:53

Bar a brief splash overnight tonight with a passing front, I cant see any rainfall above say, 3mm for any Vic location over the next 8-9 days.

We may have to resort to becoming frost specialists.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/06/2015 18:41

Has been a nice three calm and sunny winter days in a row here, but all good things have to come to an end:



Anyone interested in starting a thread (this should be the first decent "in-season" snow event for this year)?
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/06/2015 19:34

I'll step in and create the next thread Petros! Loved the sunshine (or what little we had of it, except for today), but I hate being stuck under high pressure! Especially considering it hasn't been as wet as I had hoped this month, need some winter storm action to drop some rain! smile
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/06/2015 19:41

Originally Posted By: Petros
Has been a nice three calm and sunny winter days in a row here, but all good things have to come to an end:



Anyone interested in starting a thread (this should be the first decent "in-season" snow event for this year)?



Yeah looking pretty cold and snowy for southern vic,specially gippsland!

528 thickness line looks like brushing through gippsland overnight wed into thursday morning which should drop the
snow level to that 5-600mtr mark id think smile
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/07/2015 10:15

For some days now, ensembles have been hinting at the chance of a widespread cool to cold outbreak spreading across a lot of the continent from about a week from now (but remains to be seen whether VIC will get a deep fetch of SW/S'lies or slightly less cold wrap-around SE'lies).

1st image - NAEFS output for temp anomaly probabilities for the period between 7 and 14 days from now.

2nd image - multimodel thickness plume forecast for Melbourne.

3rd image - multimodel snowfall probability map for the period between 7 and 14 days from now.

4th image - ACCESS-G scenario:








Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/07/2015 18:24

Vic Sat-Tue this coming weekend looks pretty showery/snowy and blustery. Anyone else think so?
Posted by: BlueyZarsoff

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/07/2015 18:41

Looking ordinary Petros, hope holds out for Sat arvo ...need 2 play golf in morning smirk
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/07/2015 19:14

Yeah pertos looking pretty snowy down to quiet low levels from later sat through to monday morning!Hopefully get a flurrie or two up here at some stage :)Batten down the hatches for a cold blast!

Sorry mate lol ill spell your name correctly 'petros':)
Posted by: Greg A

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/07/2015 21:03

Can't remember who posted this website link on the forum but it's pretty cool. Sunday looks promising for more low level snow over Vic. Where's the media hype now?!

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/07/26/0900Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=137.58,-37.93,1024
Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/07/2015 21:37

Originally Posted By: Greg A
Can't remember who posted this website link on the forum but it's pretty cool. Sunday looks promising for more low level snow over Vic. Where's the media hype now?!

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/07/26/0900Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=137.58,-37.93,1024


Media hype is strictly limited to one or two weather events per season, can't have the viewers getting bored now wink
Posted by: DanielB

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/07/2015 13:11

Originally Posted By: davidm

Media hype is strictly limited to one or two weather events per season, can't have the viewers getting bored now wink

It's not just the media. It seems there is not a lot of interest on here, either.
Posted by: Greg A

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/07/2015 17:15

Yes DanielB you're right about that. I recall this forum used to be a lot more popular a few years ago...or have I got that wrong? Is there some other whiz-bang forum that everyone uses now...or am I looking in the wrong threads?
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/07/2015 17:54

Welcome back Dan and Greg, the more posters in a thread the better.

Re interest, we have been peaking on snow for months, - when the spout gets full of snow I'll take a pic. and let you know !

smile
Posted by: Greg A

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/07/2015 18:59

Cheers Samboz. I'm hoping to get up to Stanley or Whitlands tomorrow and will take a few pics if we get a dusting. Fingers crossed.
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/07/2015 20:20

hopefully the strezleckis get a good cover so i can take a few snaps!

I reckon those hills out behind u samboz will have snow pretty low down tommoz/night
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/07/2015 20:58

Good luck with the snow pics Greg, yep dooga' been snow for last week up the top, the 1.5mm of rain here last night fell as snow and all the trees up there were coated early this morning before the temp. rose enough for it to fall off/melt.

Some wind rattling through in the last 1/2 hr. gusting then quiet.

Looking forward to some snow pics grin
Posted by: Greg A

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/07/2015 10:21

Not looking so rosy snow wise today. 10 C here in Wang and not much in the way of showers. 9 C in Beechworth. Blowing hard at the moment.
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/07/2015 10:33

Its only just about to start for southern vic smile
Coldest air about to hit the south vic,it will be cold windy day and night tonight with possible snow i reckon
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/07/2015 17:37

Latest NAEFS output below is still suggesting medium to high probabilities of colder than normal conditions during the period between 7 and 14 days from now:


Posted by: Greg A

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/07/2015 18:38

Made it to Stanley about 3 pm today and managed to catch a few snow showers. Nothing settled unfortunately so no pictures, however I took one up on the Murmungee Lookout.

Definitely cold enough up there to snow, just need more shower activity. poke
[img]https://www.flickr.com/photos/28150696@N03/19395590874/in/album-72157634464377944/[/img]

Posted by: Greg A

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/07/2015 18:48

Hmmm, how do I get photos to show up??
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/07/2015 18:54

Greg, I put pics on photobucket and then copy/paste them.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/07/2015 19:20

lookout July15 by gregga73, on Flickr
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/07/2015 19:25

Greg,

That's a nice pic, I like it ! Not good for snow though.

In flicker, select Share, then BBCode, select size large 1024 X 683, it will highlight, then copy it, go to post reply in WZ, paste.

Messed round for 15 minutes, it's a little like photobucket and probably quicker.

PM sent.

Posted by: Greg A

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/07/2015 19:36

Cheers Samboz thanks for your help!
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/07/2015 07:01

Originally Posted By: Greg A
Yes DanielB you're right about that. I recall this forum used to be a lot more popular a few years ago...or have I got that wrong? Is there some other whiz-bang forum that everyone uses now...or am I looking in the wrong threads?

I'd say the social media craze like facebook has a lot to do with it.
Posted by: avalon

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/07/2015 09:07

There is another forum that all the snow chaser/cold weather people defected to a couple of years ago. That's why it's quiet here at times that it used to be busy
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/08/2015 18:56

Just had a look at the recently available AccG run, if I'm reading things right Vic will be sitting under the "blue cold air" line for 8 of the next 10 days. Surely this should translate into decent snow accumulation up in the Vic alps over this period?

Well filled dams are a nice prelude to a (hopefully short) El Nino for the coming months smile
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/08/2015 17:17

Looks to be only a brief respite from this cold, damp weather, but hey this rain is great! Keep it coming please!! grin

Saturday should be mostly fine as a high pressure area drops in for a quick visit; persistent onshore flow should maintain a couple more showers in the coastal areas tomorrow before the high's arrival.

That low pressure trough developing on the satellite over Southwest WA is the prelude to another extended wet, stormy period commencing Sunday. Winds swing into a northerly airflow across Victoria as the trough approaches, with multiple cold fronts and lows lining up behind it for the coming 7-10 period. smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/08/2015 19:00

After a sunny respite over previous day or so, things might get interesting mid/late next week?


... good to see S WA getting some regular much needed rain events.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/08/2015 12:58

Yes looks promising Petros! If ACCESS and the synoptic charts are anything to go by, a cut-off low and trough look set to move across Victoria mid/late next week. If the northerlies ahead of the storm system can tap into enough tropical moisture then hopefully some good winter rainfall and thunderstorms may be headed our way! Fingers crossed... smile
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/08/2015 12:10

Things should settle down a bit between now and about this time next week, although a few passing fronts should drop a few millimetres of rain in Southern Victoria, especially tomorrow and Sunday-Tuesday.

ACCESS still has the cut-off low and trough I mentioned, although now it has it suddenly plunging south and becoming 'entangled' in a mass of cold air over the Southern Ocean. Pressure drops sharply and the gradient tightens as an enormous cold front develops and gets thrown north around the deepening low, likely to strike Victoria around August 22nd; a strengthening, potentially warm northerly airflow ahead of it could unleash gales, and perhaps Melbourne's first 20C+ day for the upcoming spring/summer. Maybe storms will develop as well? smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/08/2015 18:41

Yep ASF, as you predicted, strong NW'lies (Ides of September-like?) and unseasonal warmth - are also reflected in the latest GFS run:


I reckon your the man to start the next event thread!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/08/2015 18:44

double post
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/08/2015 19:34

Looks like an interesting little period guys!!

Also there is a little cold burst coming through
mon/tues next week that could suprise as well smile
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/08/2015 17:44

The cold signal for the 7 to 14 day forecast period in NAEFS has ramped up a bit:


Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/08/2015 19:24

That looks good for a bit of a cold period smile
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/08/2015 12:22

Still looks promising to get the ball rolling for the final leg of August! smile

Still got one or two more frontal passages to get through early next week. Should bring a few more welcome bursts of showers to parts of Victoria. smile

Then the incoming high sets the stage to get things ready for mid/late next week onwards! The cut-off low and trough that we've talked about over the last few days is still there, and if enough moisture gets pumped in, especially from Queensland, it could generate widespread soaking rain and thunderstorm action across Victoria from about Friday onwards. ACCESS still has it, with a developing cold front feeding into the low from behind, so northerlies could strengthen across the State as the storm moves in! smile

Could also be the first in a line-up of similar systems if ACCESS is anything to go by over the next 7-10 day period! smile

Looks like the transition into spring and summer is about to start, and right on schedule! Still awaiting Melbourne's first 20C+ day, so hopefully it'll arrive soon! grin
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/08/2015 12:50

Yep can defiantly feel Spring slowly moving in, sun actually has some mild warmth to it when its out which is helping push maximums up a bit! smile
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/09/2015 17:48

NAEFS has been suggesting the chance of another widespread cold signal between 7 and 14 days from now... although if it takes the form of an ECL or cutoff, the positioning of any cold signal will also depend on its position as well - refer to below:

Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/09/2015 20:26

It'll be interesting to see if it comes off Ken. smile

The charts are lining up for something interesting and much more 'spring-like' over the next 7-10 day period, with the high still muscling in as forecast and bringing our first proper warm spell for Spring 2015! A chance to finally get ready for summer! grin

Could nudge or crack 25C in Melbourne and potentially soar to 30C in Mildura this weekend! smile

Then the fun begins, with the real 'Battle of the Air Masses' finally swinging into action! Could signal the long-awaited start of the 2015/2016 Storm Season too! smile

ACCESS, GFS and the synoptic charts all have what could be a MASSIVE winter storm charging north across the Southern Ocean towards Southern Australia, with the warm northerly airflow intensifying across Victoria as the barometric pressure gradient tightens ahead of a huge Antarctic cold pool. Showers and thunderstorms could erupt across the State on Sunday/Monday as the cold front slams into the warmer northerly air, aided by a preceding trough.

Then the cold pool rips into Southeastern Australia, bringing a return to wintry conditions (including alpine snow), and then possibly coiling around another developing low pressure cell and morphing into yet another ECL next week! High pressure to the west maintains damp, chilly onshore flow behind it for a while afterwards. smile
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/09/2015 20:26

Indeed, still looking interesting - map below:

Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/09/2015 18:54

The past few days of NAEFS runs have been showing a warm signal during the day 7 to 14 forecast period which has now started to appear towards the end of the 7 day period as well. Might be a definite pattern shift coming. Current NAEFS output for 7 to 14 days from now:

Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/09/2015 08:29

still a long way out but WOW, this is ACCESSG's look at Oct 6.

Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/09/2015 11:29

Woe to the coming heat! We need more rain... urgently! I fear a dangerous bushfire season lies ahead!! frown
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/09/2015 12:05

Yep, really starting to think we are looking a a VERY bad season, locally we are only 60mm down on average for the year but every month since May has been 20% or more below average, including August which struggled to 60mm of a 110mm average
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/09/2015 18:34

.... and no rain of any significance in the 8-10 day outlook.

On a brighter note, the BBQ's will be firing in anger from the GF weekend on!
Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/09/2015 18:35

133mm below average at Kilmore, 33mm down compared to last year... pretty serious rainfall deficiency. Not much growth at all in the hills, of course the bloody grass around the house is still growing though.

Severe rainfall deficiency showing in the BoM's 14 month map, and the KBDIs are getting high. Melbourne's still sitting at a drought factor of 9, Bendigo and Maryborough at 7.7, Redesdale at 8.8, and most of the northern grasslands sitting at 10.
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/09/2015 20:09

are the KBDI's available online?

Going to be a real run of heat, from next Sunday to Tuesday. Expect Melbourne to crack 30 on all days and even mid 30's on Monday. For Mildura, Saturday to Tuesday could all be 34+ looking at the current models. Very dangerous pattern to be falling into so early.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/09/2015 21:58

The latest 10-day run from ACCESS is still bleak. A possible cold front around October 8th, but little to speak of in terms of rainfall! Also, a tight pressure gradient, which could translate into hot, potentially gale-force northerly winds! frown

Right now I can imagine people like HK rejoicing and saying we're overreacting. But reality check, most of us Victorians don't want these types of situations! Without a steady diet of soaking rain we face a dangerous bushfire risk!! frown mad
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/09/2015 22:20

It's looking like the 1st TFBs for the season..... Hoping it comes to an end with a nice line of storms to take pictures of. Thank god I'm moving to a place with aircons next weekend
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/09/2015 23:38

Do the CFA/Bom even do Fire Danger Index readings this early, as they are not displayed on the CFA site until November
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/09/2015 13:18

If the weather warrants it I'm pretty sure they do. Similar to out of season 3 day cyclone outlooks.
Posted by: Alex_96L

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/09/2015 16:38

30C forecast for Melbourne on both Sunday and Monday. Tuesday could be even hotter according to the current models...
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/09/2015 16:43

Latest forecasts are definitely hinting at a potentially dangerous mid-spring heatwave flooding across Southeastern Australia from the Outback! It'll be as if the relentlessly cold winter we had never happened, but it's going to come at a high price - possible bushfires! frown

The synoptics have a massive high pressure area muscling in from about Thursday onwards, so essentially the start of October. It'll be cool to mild for start with (with possible inland light frost), but then a persistent northerly airflow will develop and temperatures will soar! Likely to hit 30C here in Melbourne and 38C up in Mildura on Sunday and Monday.

No rain (or good storms) during that period either! Not what us who fear bushfires need right now!! frown mad
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/09/2015 16:56

And yeah regarding Tuesday, wouldn't rule out the risk of 35C here in Melbourne, and even nudging towards 40C up in the Mallee region! Could be a hot night in the 20s as well! eek
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/09/2015 17:49

Looks like Gusty warm to hot wind likely to blow SE Australia while cold uppers in southern ocean working hard push heat out.
Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/09/2015 19:00

Originally Posted By: logansi
are the KBDI's available online?


Doesn't look like they are frown BoM product code is IDV65053 if you have an FTP account or registered user account.

Originally Posted By: logansi
Do the CFA/Bom even do Fire Danger Index readings this early, as they are not displayed on the CFA site until November


Yup! But again, only for registered users. Nothing of note on there yet, I'll keep an eye on it though.
Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 28/09/2015 21:55

Just been checking out the charts and definitely doesn't look good for Monday/Tuesday. Highest temps on the latest runs seem to be on Monday, followed by an equally hot day on Tuesday with a cold front sweeping through the state in the late afternoon. The timing of that front could be *really* bad if any fires are still going.

Hopefully the wind stays light in the days preceding the front, will keep a close eye on this one.
Posted by: Bello Weather

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/09/2015 09:36

Hey davidm, logansi. A quick online search came up with this page: http://www.tambogroup.org.au/useful-links.html - exchange the capitals for lower case and see how you go wink Gives you access to the data you were after, and a heap of other stuff.
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/09/2015 10:07

Originally Posted By: davidm
Just been checking out the charts and definitely doesn't look good for Monday/Tuesday. Highest temps on the latest runs seem to be on Monday, followed by an equally hot day on Tuesday with a cold front sweeping through the state in the late afternoon. The timing of that front could be *really* bad if any fires are still going.

Hopefully the wind stays light in the days preceding the front, will keep a close eye on this one.


Yep, also with little rain forecast behind the front and strong winds it will really start to dry out the much of the state.

Originally Posted By: Bello Weather
Hey davidm, logansi. A quick online search came up with this page: http://www.tambogroup.org.au/useful-links.html - exchange the capitals for lower case and see how you go wink Gives you access to the data you were after, and a heap of other stuff.


Thanks, not sure if it's intended for the general public but it's in the public domain so why not!
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/09/2015 13:11

Some fire weather and heat graphics below.

Image 1 - temp anomaly map averaged across the next 7 days.
Image 2 - GFS hottest max temps between this Fri and next Tue.
Image 3 - GFS max hazardous fire weather probabilities between this Fri and next Tue.






Posted by: Bello Weather

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/09/2015 14:52

Great GFS image #3 Ken, guess it is one of the graphics you generate, nice work if it is smile What surprised me was how high the fire risk was across SE Tas - forget sometimes how big it can get down there.
Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/09/2015 18:12

Thanks Ken! Love the ingredients on the fire hazard chart, super useful. My patch would be in the 40% area, so might stay calm. Lot of burn-offs still going on around here, hopefully people have enough sense to stop em a couple of days before the heat arrives.

Originally Posted By: Bello Weather
Hey davidm, logansi. A quick online search came up with this page: http://www.tambogroup.org.au/useful-links.html - exchange the capitals for lower case and see how you go wink Gives you access to the data you were after, and a heap of other stuff.


Nice find! There's actually a few other BoM registered user credentials floating around on google if you're curious, ended up finding one for Indonesia at one point.

Protip: the username is standard across all users... i.e. bomw0xxx. The URL to access the registered users page is also in a similar format of http://reg.bom.gov.au/reguser/by_user/, e.g. http://reg.bom.gov.au/reguser/by_user/bomw0999

Hopefully BoM are kind enough to let us enthusiasts and volunteers keep our access wink
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/09/2015 19:46

ACCESS model now has the change coming in early on Tuesday so won't be as hot as we were first thinking, still very hot Monday - anyone want to start a treat for this first run of heat?
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/10/2015 23:23

BSCH is progging some storm chances for friday.... might see our first storm outbreak for the storm season here in Melbourne..... Hopefully it becomes a little clearer in the coming days
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/10/2015 23:28

Originally Posted By: Dawoodman
BSCH is progging some storm chances for friday.... might see our first storm outbreak for the storm season here in Melbourne..... Hopefully it becomes a little clearer in the coming days


Yep, a possible easterly/tropical dip scenario for parts of Victoria (hopefully including Melbourne) later this coming week. Would be great if that translate into a severe thunderstorm outbreak... but not without some desperately-needed heavy rainfall! We need it after this heatwave! frown
Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/10/2015 21:34

Got a chance to check some of the forecasts - SCC is on board for storms this weekend over much of the state. Hope so, though the dry storms could cause a problem, especially if it's followed up with more heat next week.

Quote:
A trough system is expected to pass through Victoria on Friday. This will cause instability and hence
thunderstorm potentential through the central eastern parts of the state during the afternoon. The storms are
not forecast to be severe. Rainfall totals in these areas are expected to be 5mm, 10mm in isolated heavy
showers associated with a thunderstorm.

An upper level disturbance will cause the risk of thunderstorms over the weekend. This will mostly be in the
north and eastern parts of the state, though there is potential for the instability to impact the southern areas
also. Thunderstorms in the northwest of the state are expected to be dry, with no precipitation expected. These
storms are not forecast to be severe. Winds will be light to moderate, temperatures mild, warmer in the
northwest.
Posted by: Plagueis

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/10/2015 11:13

Some insane instability forecast for the victoria region this weekend. That tropical dip is appearing more likely by the minute.

Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/10/2015 11:45

Yes looks better than I hoped for... but really the one thing I want more than just storms is heavy rainfall! frown

Anyway I'm about to go and get a new thread ready... smile
Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/10/2015 18:38

Special update to the climate outlook:


Well, we're boned.
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/10/2015 17:38

Forecast to reach 32 tomorrow, for us that's the same as the last 'heatwave' real chance of breaking the record that was set just last week, at 32.8C for Cashmore
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/10/2015 21:22

Below is an extreme forecast index map for temps for 11am Thu to 11am Fri EDT from the EC ensemble - the scale goes from -1 to +1 where -1 is extremely cool compared to what's typical for this time of year and +1 is extremely warm compared to what's typical:

Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/11/2015 10:20

not liking the latest ACCESSG run


Also showing some strong winds - not a good day for fires if it comes true
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/11/2015 14:02

If that scenario comes to fruition next week, then Melbourne could be about to soar towards the century mark (Fahrenheit scale) aka the dreaded 38C or higher for the first time this season, while the Mallee region Northwest Victoria could potentially top 40C!! And if there's wind as you say logansi, then it's clearly a potentially dangerous bushfire risk, in spite of the rain that some parts of the State have gained in recent weeks! frown

ACCESS does have a possible cold front brushing by on Thursday November 19th, hopefully bringing a cool change, but could be a dry one unfortunately. It does, however, also have a trough/cut-off low approaching from the west/northwest on Friday November 20th, which may bring some more soaking heavy rainfall and thunderstorm action. Too early to say at this stage. But really not happy about another scorching heatwave coming! mad
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/11/2015 21:58

Latest Runs - After Jane Bun on 7 said alpine snow?? What model is she reading?







My concern is that the model run also shows winds in into the 25 knot area which could push the fire danger well into the Extreme danger for at least some areas of the state.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/11/2015 19:41

What date did Jane say the snow was to fall Logansi?
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/11/2015 20:00

Originally Posted By: Petros
What date did Jane say the snow was to fall Logansi?


Thursday - lol

Hereis the new run, it just gets hotter and hotter, looking like a record for us if it comes true.

Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/11/2015 08:43

Yeah deffinately logansi,its looking very warm and dry next
week,this mornings gfs & access backing this up.
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/11/2015 08:45

Really hope we can scrape another 25mm out or so in the second half
of this month which will get us up somewhere respectably close
to this month average rainfall.
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/11/2015 09:32

Still need 4mm here just to reach the record low frown
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/11/2015 10:04

Thats rediculous logansi lol

Whats the record low??

the grass curing map is looking very poor for this time of
year for nearly the whole state with the only exception of gippsland
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/11/2015 10:52

Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Thats rediculous logansi lol

Whats the record low??

the grass curing map is looking very poor for this time of
year for nearly the whole state with the only exception of gippsland

We have had 13mm -record low is 19mm. That after last month saw only 7mm
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/11/2015 19:29

looking like an ominous warm dry week of weather coming up!!:(
Its going to really properly dry things right out up here
by the end of the week.
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/11/2015 09:41

The models showing up possible snow for the alps next thursday??
lol
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/11/2015 20:00

Bar the hotish day Wednesday coming, and if the resultant change is stormless, - then a boring 10 day outlook for us folk imo.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/11/2015 18:15

.... unless an Easterly Dip OR cut-off low situation arrives mid next week. AccG 2300 run for the dip, GFS (below) for the cut-off:
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/11/2015 19:25

For us Southern Vic's planning a "welcome Summer BBQ" next Tuesday - not good news:

Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/11/2015 14:39

It looks like we may be in for another warm spell for the weekend with BoM forecasting 2 days of 31 and bsch having a similar day on monday. Would be nice to see one of these events end with a supercell outbreak
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/11/2015 15:31

Victorian weather boring for us as Queensland and NSW getting fun chasing nastier thunderstorms, wish buy both way plane ticket, rent car chase and return home is not cheap to do.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/12/2015 18:29

Quite cold conditions are progged for Thursday/Thursday night (blue "cold air line" brushing Vic's Central and E coast).

Anyone prepared to predict a couple of frontal storms in Vic's S Central/SE as this arrives?
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/12/2015 19:04

Nah, nothing I can see that gives that impression, maybe define "frontal storms" to add to discussion, rain/wind/lightning/out of control flocks of sparrows......that sort of thing ;-)

Lead us to the holy grail of weather prediction pls P. smile
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/12/2015 19:33

Maybe some activity tomorrow P.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/12/2015 15:39

A bit difficult to see what's likely to be in store for Victoria over the next week. May get a bit of thundery weather (and hopefully some more rain) towards the middle of next week.

It's what ACCESS and possibly GFS have that seems more interesting! It has what could be a potentially dangerous heatwave and bushfire risk period likely to build across Victoria (commencing from about next Wednesday onwards), mainly north of the Great Dividing Range, the result of a "blocking high" and then a strengthening northerly airflow as a massive Antarctic storm swings our way! A HUGE cold front takes shape, with cold polar air racing north behind it in response to a deepening low over the Southern Ocean; the front looks scheduled to strike around December 20th/21st. Factor in a possible trough from the firy Pilbara with tropical moisture from up north, maybe a burst of storms and heavy rainfall will erupt ahead of a wintry cold blast with hail and alpine snowfalls? smile

Worth keeping an eye on! smile
Posted by: Alex_96L

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/12/2015 17:01

At least it's nice to see some consistant warm temperatures in the forecast throughout next week
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/12/2015 18:14

You can say that again... picture-perfect summer weather for Melbourne! No wintry cold or extreme heat! smile

Just wish we had more rain and some storms... way too dry. frown
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/12/2015 19:37

still looking quite hot next Saturday, this mornings ACCESS run has melbourne above 40C - waiting tonights run
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/12/2015 12:07

NAEFS still suggesting another round of significantly warmer than normal temps during the period between 7 and 14 days from now as well:

Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/12/2015 17:36

Just had a look at the monthly summaries here on Weatherzone and it looks like around 40% of stations could have their hottest December on record.

Latest CFS weekly anomaly shows a very hot first week of 2016 could also be on the cards.

Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/12/2015 19:16

Logansi - That chart above looks really nasty!!Makes what we get out of the rainfall on boxing day really important.
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/12/2015 20:14

Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Logansi - That chart above looks really nasty!!Makes what we get out of the rainfall on boxing day really important.


Sure does. Looking like the heat will be back by Tuesday next week
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/12/2015 20:51

So looks like I may be bracing myself for a multi-day inland heatwave across Northern Victoria and into Southern NSW/ACT just after New Year's Day if the chart Logansi rings true! Maybe a run of 35-40C (or higher) days awaits me in Corryong? Hoping the remnants of the possible tropical cyclone brewing over the Gulf of Carpentaria can sweep south and flush out the heat with some more moderate summer weather and decent rainfall event - or at the very least a severe thunderstorm outbreak (but without bushfires). frown
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/12/2015 21:28

Interestingly the latest ACCESS run brings massive falls to the east from the tropics.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/12/2015 21:42

Originally Posted By: logansi
Interestingly the latest ACCESS run brings massive falls to the east from the tropics.


Esp NE Vic, Logansi. But it's dependent on ACCESS being on the ball re the cyclone and its devt and tracking; it's quite different to the other models. So, of course, it could be spot on but it needs to be spot on re the cyclone first.

As Doogasnow and you have said the anomaly charts are just a bit scary.
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/01/2016 19:22

Looks like possible extended heat returning by next weekend!!
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/01/2016 08:04

Not liking next Tuesday

Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/01/2016 21:12

Defiantly looking like a warm/hot week next week, both models show rain on most days, assuming this will be through storms?
Posted by: Sora

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/01/2016 09:21

I've to attend an interview on Wednesday, from all days it will be the hottest. I was asked do I want a morning or an afternoon assessment interview. Seems like I chose the wrong time of the day to attend, ouch!
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/01/2016 10:52

Well, Sora, you'll do well anyway. Thursday's rain could have had you arriving wet and bedraggled!
Posted by: Sora

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/01/2016 11:06

I'll probably be soaked in to the interview in sweat, neither of which I will enjoy. Rainy days are best driving and having the rain fall on your windscreen, it's quite soothing.
Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/01/2016 11:46

At least the interviewer will be drenched in sweat too, levels the playing field a bit grin
Posted by: Sora

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/01/2016 11:49

Once he sees me, he may just be so grin

I am trying to move jobs right now actually, I've no guarantees on the role, still pretty much an entry level role till I can build up experience on it. It's all based on Financial Services, I've not had an interview in years, so I am not sure how I will go - though the weather isn't really going to make it any better.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/01/2016 18:04

Go girl!
Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/01/2016 00:18

Check out the longer range GFS - very tasty. I wouldn't say no to 100mm, the 200mm up north would be even better though grin

Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/01/2016 07:55

Been looking at that also David, certainly something to look fwd to, the first week is in with a chance with Fridays rain and hints after that.

The second week - well you'll hear the cheers from here if that comes off, 1/2" / week will get us thru' to Autumn with the relatively good Summer weather we have had lately, especially the low wind conditions.

Be nice to see W Vic get some rain, reports of low stock water have been on the media to add to the dry fire conditions.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/01/2016 11:38

AccG is echoing DaveM and Samboz's observations for later next week:



Time for a thread I reckon!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/04/2016 19:10

Interesting variations in the models for Vic's weather early next week? - I bet a few others are keeping just as keen-an-eye as me! smile
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/04/2016 20:41

Lots of possibilities; beyond me P, time will tell what comes out of the models I guess.

One thing for sure, some more rain on the go and what ever we get will be very timely once again.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/04/2016 15:46

Looks like SE Australia dry and warm as High Pressure system still pushing frontal away deep in southern ocean by GFS charts. Just this weekend quick change bring rain for Eastern Victoria.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 13/04/2016 21:44

That glimmer of some good rain again, the WZ 8-14 day Ag. map is showing big rain along coastal Vic, almost all the way from NSW to SA., decreasing to the north of Vic.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/agriculture/?lt=wzstate&lc=vic&c=14day&rc=14day&p=336
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/04/2016 08:24

And that hopeful Ag. map has changed overnight, not surprising but hugely different to last night.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/04/2016 09:38

Just an observation -

We seem to be in a holding pattern of "the next S/W front has rain". The last two or so weeks have been like that and the next one is on Thursday 21/4.

The fronts have seemed to dissipate and also arrive later than the forecast, one will have some rain in it soon.......hoping.

In the meantime, days from 19-27C aren't hard to live in and have been thoroughly enjoyed in this neck of the woods. smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/04/2016 18:26

Yeah, agree Samboz, hopefully Thursday night gifts us a couple of mm, but other than that, balmy and plenty of sun around for the next week or so......
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/04/2016 10:51

ACCESS G shows a very nice low system across the Bight and Vic. next Thurs/Friday, see how this one plays out.

Looks at this "early" stage to be quite a large wet front.

Fine weather in the meantime with predominant highs, after a bit of handy rain the mild weather can roll on........... grin
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/04/2016 11:44

Yeah I love what ACCESS has to show (not too appealing on GFS atm). After having relatively few decent events to show on its cards over the past couple of months, the 2016 Southern Australia Winter Storm looks like it finally has an ace to play! grin

The upcoming warm spell looks set to give way to what could be the mightest cold front for the year so far! ACCESS has a massive cold pool from Antarctica marching northwards across the Southern Ocean, breaking free of the Roaring Forties by mid-week. An attendant deepening low pressure system swings the cold air north into the Bight, then interacting with a trough; warm northerlies could strengthen to gale-force as the pressure gradient tightens across Victoria ahead of the storm. Good State-wide heavy rains likely to develop next weekend! Please may there be a thunderstorm or two as well. smile

Persistent blustery, showery west/southwesterlies likely afterwards, hopefully with hail-producing coldies? Hope the first snows for the season are abou to fall up in th Australian Alps. The first frosts of the season could follow soon afterwards too. smile
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/04/2016 18:31

You paint a magnifico picture asf :-)
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/04/2016 20:17

I don't know if this will eventually affect VIC but for interest's sake, just a post I made the other day:

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Some of the seasonal forecast models are still continuing to suggest the possibility of a shift towards wetter than normal conditions trying to spread down across western and central parts of the continent near winter... although as far as our region itself, they're more undecided.

If that scenario did eventuate, the Indian Ocean looks to be one of the sources of the moisture which probably isn't that surprising if the IOD tended towards more negative values by late winter/spring and the waters there still continued to stay warm. A return towards more neutral (or La Nina) ENSO conditions by around then may also help.

It remains to be seen whether our region will see any benefit from it or not.

The 1st graphic below is from the seasonal forecast version of EC for winter while the 2nd graphic is from an ensemble of 7 US and Canadian models also for winter. This 2nd graphic has been calibrated by comparing past forecasts with what actually happened e.g. a value of 70% probability of wetter than normal conditions loosely translates to "in 70% of past cases, the wetter than normal forecast was correct given the same lead time, area and time of year".

The three most important caveats with these maps are that white areas do *not* always translate to average rainfall - it can also mean that the scenarios are undecided and evenly split between wet and dry conditions.
Also, since the conditions are averaged across Jun-Jul-Aug, it doesn't necessarily mean all of winter will be like that.
And as always, the exact positioning of the coloured areas should never be taken literally - a very broadbrush approach is vital.
In other words, I would translate the below maps as "possibly enhanced moisture/rainfall spreading from NW Australia across the central interior near winter"



Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 30/04/2016 18:46

Ta Ken.

Vic's present situation, with a medium rainband to cross Vic overnight tonight, ... then experiencing huge damaging waves into the S Central Vic coastline into next week, ...it seems Vic's chances of a decent wet event may finally be realised into the week after next??????

Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/05/2016 17:16

Hmmm. Do I see a strong cold front looming into Vic this coming weekend? Storms and handy rain band? ..... I'll be leaving a week of hot humid Bali weather behind to return to the real world again.😣
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/05/2016 18:10

Have a good one P, on yr return I think you might be surprised how much the country has gone off, we are in "trouble" with ground moisture !
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/05/2016 23:46

Bit of wind on the cards next week
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/05/2016 08:36

Good cold air masses impacting Vic Monday 23/5 and Thurday 26/5 on ACCESS, the latter being the biggest at this stage.

Winter weather is great, some moisture with it will make it even better.

Interesting weather approachs !
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 21/05/2016 08:48

Access hasn't updated for a while now unfortunately.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 29/05/2016 19:09

Anyone keen to open a new thread for the next significant rain/snow event week after next?

GFS is still stale on WZ, but AccG holds interest at this early stage??:

[img]http://i.imgur.com/xeyqkm0.png?1[/img]

[edit] - if anyone can work out why the above link dosent provide a picture, pls educate me (I'm getting too old for this sh%&*t).
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/06/2016 12:34

Originally Posted By: Petros
Anyone keen to open a new thread for the next significant rain/snow event week after next?

GFS is still stale on WZ, but AccG holds interest at this early stage??:

[img]http://i.imgur.com/xeyqkm0.png?1[/img]

[edit] - if anyone can work out why the above link dosent provide a picture, pls educate me (I'm getting too old for this sh%&*t).


Can't help you with the link issue I'm afraid mate, sorry. frown

But new thread for the upcoming heavy rain event you mention is now ready to go! smile

Also putting people on notice, the first potential MAJOR frontal winter storm for June-August 2016 is scheduled for this time next week! Here's a brief synopsis of what's coming...

While the impending easterly/tropical dip (and possible ECL scenario) is well underway, the synoptic charts and models have a ferocious cold front and deepening low marching northbound across the Southern Ocean from Antarctica. Come Sunday, the cold pool joins forces with a developing trough over WA, and a separate low pressure cell forms along the frontal boundary. This new low suddenly deepens and coils the cold pool around its own circulation, growing in size as it bears down on Southeastern Australia!

A preceding high pressure area over the Outback gets "squeezed" between the main easterly dip and the incoming storm; come Tuesday/Wednesday winds abruptly swing around into a northerly airflow over Eastern Australia, strengthening across Victoria before the storm arrives! Moisture that's been feeding the easterly dip continues to be pulled in from the South Pacific as La Nina unfolds, as well as from the Indian Ocean.

Aside from snowfall for the High Country, hopefully some widespread heavy rainfall is on the way! smile

One to watch out for guys. Some exciting times coming up!
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/06/2016 12:12

A bit difficult to make out exactly what's set to unfold over the coming 7-10 period, but here's what the latest charts and models seem to more or less agree on...

The easterly/tropical dip and potential ECL now taking shape over Eastern Australia could end up becoming one of the ingredients in the potentially major winter storm skill on the cards for next week!

The synoptic pattern and ACCESS have the trough (or troughs) and main low pressure area (aka the current rain event) gradually slipping south/southeast in the next couple of days. A cold front comes surging in and links into the storm; factor into the equation the storm's interaction with the East Australia Current and an ECL could form!

Meanwhile, the stage gets set for the major winter storm swinging our way from Antarctica! Behind the first cold front, the second, stronger cold front rips north across the Southern Ocean. Still anticipating a potent low pressure cell to form along the leading edge of the cold pool as it reaches Southwest WA, with a trough hanging over the Outback and pulling in moisture from the Indian Ocean.

The developing low deepens and becomes larger, wrapping the cold pool around its circulation, and then barreling across the Bight towards Southeastern Australia. The latest synoptic chart has a rare warm front likely to pass over Victoria on Tuesday, with cloud increasing and rain developing!. The northerly airflow strengthens as the main cold front bursts upon us on Wednesday, with the main low pressure area interacting with the ECL slipping south past Tasmania! Hopefully storms may erupt across Victoria with the frontal passage, before the cold air comes flooding in behind. smile
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/06/2016 12:17

I know it's a bit too early for much discussion and speculation, and the main focus right now is the current icy blast, but just wanted to put people on notice on what's likely to unfold around this time next week, could be a decent rain event for Victoria! smile

Once this polar blast clears off during the weekend, follow-up fronts should maintain showery weather for a few days (mainly south of the Great Dividing Range), aided by a trough to the north.

The trough heads out into the Pacific at the start of next week. Then an incoming high pressure system from the west helps set the stage for the rain event I mentioned.

Winds swing around from west/southwesterly into a strengthening northerly airflow across Victoria from Wednesday onwards as a deepening low approaches from the Southern Ocean. Several intense Antarctic cold fronts converge and then slam into Southeastern Australia on Thursday/Friday. ACCESS hints at some fairly decent falls across much of the State on Friday with this system, just don't ask for low-level snow as it's unlikely to happen at this stage lol. smile
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/06/2016 12:26

I was looking at this too,next Thursday another cold pool but small and then large one by Sunday 3rd, still too early what Aussiestormfreak said,low-level snow.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 26/06/2016 19:18

.... only posted this out of fascination - I cant recollect an ECL to be born with less than 3 days notice as per this (progged) brief event:

Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/07/2016 20:30

I know we have plenty of weather going on at the minute, but looking forward to next Monday/Wednesday period we have a serious looking Antarctic blast proged to hit in this time frame! I think samboz touched on this in the other thread.

Models hinting at low level snow again and the purple line comes right up into tassie with this one 😀
Something to keep one eye on
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/07/2016 20:03

Well Jane bunn has thrown the cat amongst the pigeons tonight and
Said snow possibly down to 300mtr next Tuesday and the models currently backing her up!!
Looks very severe
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/07/2016 20:14

Saw her giving the Weather tonight, 300M !! , with the cold air forecast it has to be a possible.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/07/2016 12:41

300m would be (takes deep breath) EPIC!! =D

Yes all the models and synoptic charts have something major coming our way! It has a deepening low pressure system on the move in the Southern Ocean, intensifying rapidly over the weekend as a massive, powerful cold front slams into it; the circulation around this low is huge!

Expect potentially damaging gales to start building across Victoria late-Saturday/Sunday as the preceding northerly airflow strengthens, with cloud increasing along with showers and thunderstorms developing and then persisting into Monday as a trough swings by, before the cold blast strikes on Tuesday. smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/07/2016 18:12

Might be a bit of a needed minor snow top up for the Vic alps into next weekend? - GFS has a tantalizingly close "repeat slurp" of extremely cold air surging up SW of Tassie later this week. ....But it looks to slump rapidly SE below Tassie soon after.

Syn-optics on next Friday morning according to GFS:
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/08/2016 18:21

Midweek next week may, or may not, provide a significantly wet event for Vic??:

Maynot (GFS):



May (EC):



If anyone has a comment, please consider starting a new thread for this period wink
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/09/2016 13:41

Just noticed this "way out there" on the EC long term outlook for Maffra:


.....we (Vic generatl) might get a follow-up soon after next Thursdays frontal system dumps on us?
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/09/2016 18:39

Very promising outlook Petros, if Thur/Fri next doesn't bring rain the EC for the following Tuesday gives another possibility.

Can you assist with a link for EC pls.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/09/2016 10:19

Thank you Petros, a Gentleman of the highest order smile

Friday next looking good for around 10mm & shaping up for a better than average Spring for farmers in the Gippsland area.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 06/09/2016 17:50

Hope someone starts a thread for next Mon-Wed - but potentially another E Vic centric event like last weeks.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/09/2016 18:57

Next weeks weather looks to be a fairly complex sequence of events, it will be interesting to see how the BOM assemble all this into their 4 day outlooks.

One thing for sure, it will put the brakes onto our "sucker spring" we've just enjoyed!

Here's GFS's take on the start of the sequence of cold and wet conditions:
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/09/2016 19:17

I nominate Samboz to start a thread for early next week, very Gippy-centric, but a prog like this, after tonights rain mooted, cant be ignored!!????:

Posted by: Seina

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 10/09/2016 00:06

Flood warnings have been issued for some catchments in VIC. Might be worth a look smile . I thought I'd mention in this thread because they're warnings (possibly coming), not observations.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 11/09/2016 18:38

Thanks Naz.
Posted by: Seina

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 12/09/2016 18:21

Originally Posted By: Petros
Thanks Naz.

smile You're welcome.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/09/2016 18:50

The circa 5-6 daily conveyor belt of Spring wet changes seems set to continue to impact Vic next week.

Once (but atm no longer) supported by GFS, another cutoff low is a possibility to impact mid next week according to EC!!!:

Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/09/2016 10:03

Thanks for the maps P.

EC talking 1/2" Sunday and Wednesday, that'd be handy.
Posted by: davidm

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/09/2016 15:05

Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/09/2016 19:04

All models have backed off for heavy rain over next 7 days (most Vic's will say "thank God") - showers tomoz, and a rain band to cross mid week should keep spring pasture conditions OK and lesson flooding fears IMO??
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/09/2016 19:08

Beat me to it by minutes P, although some rain would be nice here I am pretty happy for the wet areas to get a break, good outcome smile

EC has next rain of any magnitude on Sunday 25/9, ie round 1/2".

Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/09/2016 09:19

After looking at models again this AM they have again done about turns, very hard to work out whats happening this time of year.

Currently 20mm for a lot of Vic this Wed and more again over next weeend........BUT THEY CHANGE SO OFTEN AT THE MO' don't bet yer socks on it grin

Trying to rain here, no wind, small showers coming down from the N/W, if the large rain mass round Y'wonga makes it over the GDR we could get a bit in Nth Gipp.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 18/09/2016 19:03

We are so spoiled of late that this next cut-off will hardly rate a mention???:
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/09/2016 18:00

This weeks (well mid week, not this weekends) "thread-less" cut-off low event looks to be an "all of Vic'er" - useful (mostly problematic) rain for all regions! smile

AccR's latest:



Worth a thread if someone gets motivated?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/09/2016 18:14

...and for Samboz - EC differs from AccR & GFS and is currently progging an inch n 1/2 for us in N Gippy, dont know about your plot, but for Royal Maffra Golf Course, that much rain would fit quite neatly into the "problematic" category!
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/09/2016 18:38

We should grin discuss this on the "Thread" Petros grin
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 19/09/2016 18:55

You are a motivated man Samboz!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 20/09/2016 20:32

...and after this cut-off low, seems we will have a "standard cold front" to cross Vic this weekend before the next advectation(?) of IOD moisture from the NE arrives to create cut-off low event No. "God knows" to potentially saturate Vic again later next week!!!!?????


Well, this is what GFS reckons:

http://imgur.com/a/7FDQ8


Samboz has stepped up to the plate with this current thread, harden up you folk! - any takers to start a thread for this next potential thread??
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 05/10/2016 18:47

The 'Battle of the Air Masses' looks set to go into high-gear now! Finally the fun is starting up across Victoria! smile

A weakish frontal is currently brushing by, but will quickly make way for high pressure tomorrow. While personally I'll believe it when I see it (given how raw it was today lol), it looks to be much warmer over the next couple of days. Melbourne's expecting 26C tomorrow, and looks like Victoria's first 30C+ days for the summer season are FINALLY about to arrive, with 31C for Mildura on Friday and Sunday! grin

There'll be a temporary cool-down, mainly south of the Divide, as a gusty, showery front grazes past. Then the warmth rebuilds, mainly across the Northern Plains and Mallee region, as the next potentially major winter storm for Spring 2016 swings our way from Antarctica. smile

ACCESS and GFS have a enormous polar low pressure area charging northbound across the Southern Ocean towards Southern Australia, unleashing a very active, intense cold front. Factor into the equation a new heat-induced low pressure trough over the Pilbara, which hooks into the storm on Saturday as it enters the Bight.

Expect the warm/hot northerly airflow to strengthen rapidly across Victoria on Sunday (possibly to gale-force), ahead of a much colder, squally southwesterly wind change. Showers and possible thunderstorms likely with the passage of the cold front, mainly across the southern half at this stage. More damp, wintry weather into the coming week, with further alpine snowfalls. smile
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 23/10/2016 19:18

It's been looking like yet another round of coldness coming up between the day 7 and 14 period from now to add to the seemingly neverending winter - NAEFS output below:


Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/10/2016 18:50

"thanks" Ken frown

On the bright side, a nice looking Nina plume showing over the Pacific though!
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 24/10/2016 20:46

Yeah "thanks" Ken! poke

But not all doom and gloom I suppose, it's better than the weather we had at this time last year, but some warmth and perhaps a day or two of no hotter than 32C would be welcome! smile

La Nina hasn't "officially" been declared, but there are La Nina-like signatures in the Pacific, as well as very warm waters across Northern Australia and into the Indian Ocean particularly off Indonesia (the IOD is currently neutral I believe btw). Good to see that the BOM has wetter-than-average conditions ahead for coming months, even though that means more risk of flooding. Hope soaking rains continue well into summer across Victoria, they'r needed to help fight the bushfire risk. smile

But yeah anyway...

Looks like a fairly settled week for the State as high pressure takes over, minus a front/trough that comes through late tomorrow, bringing showers (mainly in the southern half) and a slight dip in temperatures.

Then comes the 'Battle of the Air Masses' in time for the Melbourne Cup weekend and my trip to Corryong, Northeast Victoria! grin

Difficult to tell exactly what the weather's next move will be, but the latest synoptic prognosis and models have a trough brewing this week over the Outback, WA Pilbara and Kimberley as the Pre-Monsoon Buildup continues to fire-up across Tropical Northern Australia.

This trough shifts southwards in response to the next potentially major winter storm that Antarctica is about to unleash upon Southern Australia! A huge, powerful cold front and deepening low pressure system charge northbound across the Southern Ocean. The trough from the north links into the system as soon as it enters the Bight on Saturday and a new low pressure cell forms within the storm's main circulation, most likely along the edge of the impending cold blast. The high retreats off the East Coast and allows a warm northerly airflow to flood Eastern Australia (loaded with South Pacific moisture from the Tasman and Coral Seas), and possibly strengthen to gale-force across Victoria on Sunday ahead of the storm. Expect highs in the 20s across much of the State on Saturday and Sunday, possibly topping 30C in Mildura and surrounding parts of the Mallee region. smile

Unsure about rainfall totals, but BSCH has some fairly reasonable instability across large parts of the State on Sunday at this stage, which could set off some decent shower and thunderstorm action! smile

The cold pool could penetrate deep into NSW/ACT on Monday, so hoping snowfalls are likely for the High Country. smile

I feel sorry for those planning on attending the "Race that stops the Nation", could be a very, VERY cold, wet, miserable day out at the races! frown

Looking forward to next weekend. A great way to say goodbye to October and hello to November. wink
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 25/10/2016 17:57

Thanks for the high standard wrap up there ASF smile
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 07/11/2016 11:30

some warmth is coming




Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 14/11/2016 18:04

Next change seems due to impact Vic on Friday, not looking like a huge event IMO, but the timing for central Vic could make the Melbournites happy timing-wise!!??



Worthy of a "stormy change" thread IMO.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 15/11/2016 17:29

Yeah looks like an interesting setup Petros! But next Monday looks equally, if not even more fantastic! smile

Unsure whether we need one thread to cover both events, or two separate topics, but looks like it's well-and-truly game-on for the 'Battle of the Air Masses' across Victoria, and about time too! The 2016/2017 Storm Season needs a proper kick-start lol grin

Thoughts about whether we need just one thread or two? smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/11/2016 09:15

Looks like Fridays change is a little too South to stir up much in Vic - so I'd skip it ASF.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/11/2016 16:12

I agree Petros leave it until next week.
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/11/2016 16:27

Monday's going to be our first real summer day, 41C for Mildura, 35C for Melbourne, most places will hit 30.
Posted by: Weather_Viewer

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 16/11/2016 18:43

Originally Posted By: logansi
Monday's going to be our first real summer day, 41C for Mildura, 35C for Melbourne, most places will hit 30.

Dew points look pretty high for Monday also.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 17/11/2016 00:36

Originally Posted By: Weather_Viewer
Originally Posted By: logansi
Monday's going to be our first real summer day, 41C for Mildura, 35C for Melbourne, most places will hit 30.

Dew points look pretty high for Monday also.


Looking unstable and stormy too! Hope any storms that get going on Monday drop much-needed heavy rainfall, given the heightened bushfire risk with next Monday's hot blast!

Crazy weather next week. The latest models and charts have troughs converging over the Outback during the weekend, then high pressure pumps moisture in from the Indian and South Pacific. All the while, a potentially major winter storm is let loose from Antarctica, with a deepening low swinging northbound across the Southern Ocean, along with a powerful springtime cold front!

The troughs extend southwards into the impending storm system on Monday, and a very hot, sultry, unstable, strengthening northerly airflow floods Victoria, sending temperatures soaring as mentioned earlier; could be damaging gales in addition to bushfires and possible severe thunderstorms on Monday!

Much colder air moves in late on Monday through most of next week, with alpine snowfalls possible. Also hints of an ECL developing.
Posted by: Weather_Viewer

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/11/2016 18:28

Looking ahead temperatures looking pretty toasty mid next week onward. shocked
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 22/11/2016 18:38

Yep, looking at the models, looks quite dry until into December, slowly warming back up, will be some nice sunny days too:)
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/11/2016 11:55

Looks like a "no weather" week ahead, at least until the lead in to next week when sultry conditions may arrive?



Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 27/11/2016 18:07

This arvo's update for next week, storms look possible (probable?) for Vic next week?

Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/12/2016 09:11

You have got to love the difference between GFS and ACCESSG for next Wednesday Thursday - under ACCESSG most places will struggle up to 20C, GFS has most in the mid 30's







Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 01/12/2016 23:40

Not sure if I like what CFS is putting out for December beyond this week



Posted by: Sameoldstory

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/12/2016 19:39

I have no idea what those charts mean Logansi!

Are they predicting a hot December? And what does CFS stand for?
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/12/2016 21:02

Originally Posted By: Sameoldstory
I have no idea what those charts mean Logansi!

Are they predicting a hot December? And what does CFS stand for?


CFS is a global weather model and there are its outputs for how far above /below average the temperature will be each week for the next 4 weeks and the current run has above to well above average temps for all of Victoria from next week until the 28th.
Posted by: Sameoldstory

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/12/2016 21:50

Ok thanks. I guess a hotter than average December is better than a hotter than average January or February, they're the big months for fires
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 02/12/2016 22:56

Yep and of course these things change. At this stage looking at the models we may see some prolonged warmth from next weekend.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/12/2016 08:56

Chance of a sprinkle of rain here late Sunday and early Monday then a dry patch until Thursday/Friday next week, according to ACCESS this morning.

Be interesting which models are closest to actual weather, thanks for the excellent pics loganski, makes me stretch the envelope to learn new 'stuff' about weather charts grin

Sitting nicely moisture wise here after 4 or 5 milder calm days, veg. garden kicking along very nicely (for someone who hasn't got green thumbs, decidedly brownish..lol)

edit..Unfortunate we are not getting much out of the huge low trough coming down from far N/W this week - could change ?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/12/2016 11:09

Maybe a storm to arrive circa Melbourne during this coming Thursday's afternoon commute?:
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 03/12/2016 18:33

.....12hrs later, GFS now brings the change in during Thursday morning:

Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/12/2016 21:50

Summer is coming







Based on this runs Tuesday will be a scorcher likely hotter than than this run shows with with wind change already entering the state by 17:00.
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 04/12/2016 23:02

Mmmmm not looking good, so the next dangerous heatwave for the season could strike early next week! If that chart is anything to go by, then Melbourne could easily soar beyond 35C on Tuesday December 13th. frown

ACCESS, and to a lesser extent GFS, have a potentially major winter storm system or at the very least a deep low bearing down on us around that time. The tightening pressure gradient ahead of it is cause for concern in terms of bushfires, could mean a hot, but also likely gale-force northerly airflow. frown
Posted by: aussiestormfreak

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 08/12/2016 17:23

A head's up for next week!

Still a long way out, but ACCESS, GFS and the synoptic prognosis are all more-or-less in agreement with each other for the middle part of next week.

They have a low and trough brewing over the sun-scorched WA Pilbara, then sliding down the West Coast into Southwest WA during the weekend.

Factor into the equation what could still become the next potentially major winter storm that Antarctica is getting ready to unleash upon Southeastern Australia! An enormous, deepening low pressure area rides the Roaring Forties, creating a mighty cold front that charges north across the Southern Ocean around the same time.

The low and trough from the WA Pilbara enter the Bight on Monday, with the cold front rapidly closing in behind them. A preceding area of high pressure retreats off the East Coast into the South Pacific. By Monday, a hot northerly airflow floods Eastern Australia as the storm bears down on Victoria.

ACCESS and GFS are in a bit of disagreement over the severity of the building heatwave across Victoria. For the moment it looks like most of the coastal areas will enjoy the benefit of seabreezes, while the Northern Plains, Mallee, Wimmera, etc are likely to roast! Currently the BOM has 33C for Melbourne and 37C for Mildura on Tuesday, but wouldn't rule out Melbourne hitting 35C instead, and perhaps at least one spot further inland soaring to 40C! Likely to be a potentially dangerous bushfire risk too, with winds likely to reach gale-force. eek

The worst of the cold blast looks likely to stay well to our south for the time being, but still going to be a significant change nonetheless! Storms likely to erupt on Tuesday according to BSCH! smile
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/12/2016 09:50

Could Next Wednesday be this wet??

Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come - 09/12/2016 10:24