Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18

Posted by: Petros

Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 22/07/2018 19:37

Thought I'd start this to give us another potential event that "could" counter the ongoing dry in Vic:




Only GFS above shows the timing of the cold air into low pressure as a "near enhanced low pressure system" - all other models show both systems arriving late next week - but too far apart to interact. Time will tell?

.....at least the pair of systems provides something to provoke some discussion???
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 23/07/2018 10:06

Now looking pretty clear that the low will have scampered off into the Tasman before the next cold air injection arrives from the SW:

Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 23/07/2018 18:30

....however the latest CMC run shows the passage of the "non-invigorated" low pressure system may still be beneficial to Vic's grain growing regions as it passes?:

Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 24/07/2018 11:49

Cold upper pool over VIC and South NSW by July 29th

Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 24/07/2018 16:50

Yep looks like something handy should come
Through during this period.
Some handy rain and more snow possibly
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 24/07/2018 18:27

Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Cold upper pool over VIC and South NSW by July 29th



Yep, the gap between the passing closed low pressure system and the approaching cold air has now reduced on this mornings model run, allowing an offshore enhanced ECL closer to SE Aus than predicted yest.

May bring some wrap around rain to far E Vic in this threads date range?
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 24/07/2018 18:39

Hopefully with some useful rain in the grain growing regions ahead of this, .....looks like a wild snowy night (and very much needed rain in Gippsland) looming next Sunday??:

Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 25/07/2018 09:23

This potential system becomes interesting again, the low ahead of the approaching cold air now progged to stall over NSW and weaken out over Vic, remnants still around when the cold air eventually arrives? - more snow coming it seems?:

Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 25/07/2018 18:08

Victoria missing out weak low sitting in NSW, so we wait next SW injection by Saturday 28th..
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 25/07/2018 18:23

Really liking this period on gfs tonight!
Front after front and snowy to with possibly 800-1000m
Snow level with each front!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 26/07/2018 19:16

This thread looks to be a blizzard outbreak to enhance already good snow totals for Vic/NSW?:

Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 27/07/2018 19:22

.....and here we eventually end up, interaction with moisture and cold air from SW:



I'm interested.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 28/07/2018 11:12

Still on track for decent rain/snow arriving in Vic this arvo through to Monday morning - now hoping for a 15mm tally here in N Gippsland.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 28/07/2018 18:07

19.4C here today in mild sometimes sunny conditions (19.9C yesterday).

Low pressure is now over NSW, will sag down over Vic overnight, cold air will enhance it and provide some much needed rain for Vic's central and SE regions over the next 36 hrs?

BTW - how good are our short term models nowadays, if the inland low over NSW does sag over Vic tonight, ....the cold air ingredient currently looming into SA atm is basically exactly what GFS foretold at the start of this thread:

Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 29/07/2018 18:10

Just tipped out 1.5mm from overnight showers. The cold airmass is now reaching into the Latrobe Valley, hopefully 4-5mm more for us later this evening? Baro inching up after sagging to 999hPa.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 30/07/2018 09:20

I was away over the weekend but seems next to nothing in rainfall here. Nothing in 7-day prospect. Need a break!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 30/07/2018 11:11

Yep same TB. .....and no more rain here overnight!

At least there is plenty of snow to fill Lake Glenmaggie in September.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 31/07/2018 08:58

Cold windy joint, think I'll go north again, low 20's, calm LOL laugh
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 31/07/2018 10:53

Thought the roof was going to blow off last night!
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 01/08/2018 07:34

3mm in gauge over last few days, barely worth recording.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 01/08/2018 11:43

Had 6 days front rain for July bring 50mm out of 56.4 average month.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 01/08/2018 15:40

Less than 1mm in the rain band that went through late last night.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 02/08/2018 09:06

"Lucky" 2.5mm for us.

......to be more than evaporated in the mild windy weather/Foehn Effect for Gippsland over coming days frown
Posted by: Alexia

Re: Vic - potential interaction with low pressure and a cold air SW'ly injection 28-31/7/18 - 04/08/2018 18:20

16 mm rain last night hoping for more during the week.