Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18

Posted by: logansi

Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 21/08/2018 19:48

A low over the bight will become cut off in coming days and drift inland before it reaches the coast in Northern NSW and slips down the coast delivering much needed rain to the eastern half of NSW.

The big question is what's in it for us, from Thursday Victoria will see some warm spring like day's, it then depends on the timing of the next front and whether it interacts with the cut off low slipping down the east coast. As we've discussed already models are struggling with the timing. And offer a wide range of possibilities from low falls to some quite significant falls.

GFS:



EC:


AccessG:



For me I feel EC has been the most consistent over the last few days but accessg shows what this system could deliver!

Anyway enjoy the sun and warmth over the coming days!
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 21/08/2018 22:43

Don't ask how the thread ended up with 'All or Nothing end to Wind' should be winter lol
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 22/08/2018 07:33

Good thread logansi, summary in OP is excellent!

I sometimes think EC is pretty "iffy", GFS does "OK" but over does it re rain and particularly closer to the day in question, ACCESS is "best".

YMMV smile

Good rainfall in the next fortnight would be handy to all farmers of East Aus, fingers crossed for them.

Heard rain regularly on the roof o/night, expected better but only ended up with 1mm. E/Sale BOM only a few K's (east) of home had 3mm.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 22/08/2018 10:10

SW wind as low Clouds is stalling shifting N/NW wind ..so trapping clouds more likely central Victoria to East Victoria. Time enjoy sunny days.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 22/08/2018 10:34

Good thread Logansi.

We got an unexpected (to me) 1mm here last night, will help - despite fresh westerly all day yesterday.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 22/08/2018 18:05

Very interesting when two cut off low pressure going wet NSW and SW QLD as Friday 29th the second cut off is stronger seem early spring pattern.
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 22/08/2018 20:07

Tonights model runs: Access has significantly cut back while EC and GFS have upgraded - I hope your wrong about ACCESS being the best samboz, for today atleast. EC also has a second very strong low coming in right behind it but have little confidence in this.

Expect models will have better chance at getting timing right once the front coming up from Antarctica hits the WA coast during Sunday.

Can't wait for tomorrow's sun - although it'll make me even more eager for some real warmth. Although considering i'm more than likely moving to Adelaide around Christmas i'm sure i'll get enough of that in summer.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 23/08/2018 10:40

Light frost here this morning, looking to become a nice sunny day here.

Talking about early spring, a bit of sunshine yesterday afternoon created several weak cumulus turkey necks around this area - the first time this side of winter.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 23/08/2018 18:11

We'll end up with a pair of googy eggs surrounding us next week according to CMC's latest:

Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 23/08/2018 20:41

Eye's i assume you mean?

Lovely day here in Melbourne today bit of cloud in the afternoon with tomorrow looking even better

Models starting to agree now that this will mostly be a miss for us here in Victoria but who knows what tomorrow's runs will show!







If it is the case attention will need to turn to the next cold front, early model runs have a quite significant system moving in around the late next week but as this one has shown - who knows what it'll bring!
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 24/08/2018 07:41

Big low over Vic next Friday (31st) still looks the
best bet, nothing much before then really.

Unfortunately we can't change the weather as often as
we change the countries leaders (bldy disgraceful)!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 24/08/2018 09:36

Yep Samboz, big low looking likely to replace the currently developing weak cut off low in SA at present.

EC showing the tropics more active over Aus top end later next week, allowing moisture to advect down through Qld?:

Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 24/08/2018 11:46

Heavy rain is looming next Thursday 30th when strong cut off Low move over inland from SA to VIC..

Middle half of Queensland to Most NSW t oVIC in North Country and East SA as rain thicken Friday 31st bring wet soaking...

Hope dry NSW Farmers say good rains..

Hope the Chart does not change..
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 24/08/2018 15:57

Certainly looking promising ca grin
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 25/08/2018 17:21

Still looking ok but downgrades have started now for that system now too with rain mostly now focused on the western slopes on the ranges and coastal areas considering the event this thread is focused on has turned to a few showers my confidence in even that is low
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 25/08/2018 18:24

AccessG



Just a few days ago AccessG had widespread 20mm+ falls and 50mm+ on the ranges
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 26/08/2018 17:48

Happy to report a fifth wind free day in a row here today, .....and mostly sunny with 17-18C temps. Baro eased back to 1014 hPa.

On the Baro front, Gippsland has not had higher pressure than 1032 hPa (June 26th - and only for a day) for the whole winter to date. We typically experience several days at 1040 hPa, and a couple of times over? For me, I put it down to an early spring (the wind of June-August) - but leaves the magnificent snow season unexplained!

....and on the snow season, has now almost guaranteed a full Lake Glenmaggie for the Macalister irrigation district (dairy region N Gippsland) for this coming summer despite drought conditions S of the ranges.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 26/08/2018 18:30

Not a significant rain signal for Vic, ...but AccR's latest run is delivering memorable synoptics!:

Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 27/08/2018 12:59

Lowest level snow reported at Tassie this morning. Has gone cold cloudy windy here after a mild sunny patch earlier this morning.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 27/08/2018 17:28

Found 1.0mm in the gauge from showers at some stage last night. Currently cold with light SSW'ly.

Mt Baw Baw currently at -5C atm! - looks like another snow top up over next 48 hours to take the snow season to memorable depth tallies.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 27/08/2018 17:52

The "pair of googies" scenario looks to persist. Leaves us to enjoy frosts while watching rain fall to Vics West and East?:

Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 28/08/2018 09:13

The low is spinning up some Southerly winds here, be nice if a bit of moisture was stuck in them.

Models back stepping, we'll get very little by the look of it over the next week.

Common enough scenarios, repeated locally where they start off full of promise and fizzle closer to the date.

Can some learned person tell me (us) why central Gippsland is almost always in a reduced rainfall area on most models, what redirects moist air around, rather than over us ?

eg - Todays WATL 8 day rainfall -

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 28/08/2018 11:42

Central Gippsland is rainshadowed from both the northwest and, to some extent, the southwest.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 28/08/2018 18:16

Can vouch for that Blair!

For Central (even more so Northern Central) Gippsland, ....it basically doesn't rain at all, except when a low pressure system can form in Aus SE. Then it pours - all or nothing.

A look at our average rainfall (2.5 inches/month) is basically flat for every month - not many regions in Aus have that. All due to the fact that an ECL can form in SE Aus anytime of the year. ......just hasn't this year frown

Latest AccR shows some decent rainfall help for Vic's NW for this thread ....and they need it big time (if not too late):

Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 29/08/2018 07:45

Thanks BT and P, will take that on board.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 29/08/2018 11:43

Looks good the wet coming.

The High Pressure pattern not looking good is shifting more south of Country is push upper low down.
Posted by: Twister1

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 29/08/2018 20:42

Yeah hope that happens for the NW but will wait till it actually happens been so dry there on 50 to 80mm so far this year which is just insanely dry.

Active few days ahead after of the cold mornings
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 30/08/2018 07:20

E/Sale BOM, min @ 0535hrs this morn -3.8C

Bairnsdale, " " 0454hrs " " -2.5C.

Little fresh this morning, local ABC talking of school buses at Goongerah, between Orbost and Delegate, not having school buses thru' this morning due to heavy icing on roads/bridges.

Reminiscing : I can remember several consecutive nights -5C and colder near Bendoc in that district where a bush waterhole was so frozen over that a mate and I walked securely onto the middle of it, the hole was a good 20M indiameter.

Certainly COLD country, fortunately those mornings were followed by clear sunny days.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 30/08/2018 09:26

Yep Samboz, same over here, .....and will stay cold till later with the arrival of cloud.
Posted by: Twister1

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 30/08/2018 22:30

Dry air stopping any good rain falling but better rain moving in from W NW Vic now will spread through overnight.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 31/08/2018 07:53

Concur with E/Sale BOM with 1.6mm o/night.

Much warmer night, min 9C, mild morning.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 31/08/2018 08:53

Yep very mild night here too, ....and 2mm from a period of light steady rain around 9pm.
Posted by: ThunderBob

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 31/08/2018 09:56

Forgot to empty gauge after last rain (oops!) so can only estimate 1 -2mm last night. As Samboz and P have said, much warmer night -esp compared to previous night which produced a solid frost.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 31/08/2018 13:40

This system is performing better than most model expectations for Gippsland, nice steady rain has returned since late morning, added another 3mm to the 2mm recieved last night, so far, and hopefully a bit more to come?

Models performed well in predicting this present setup:



I reckon there is a chance for a small cut-off low to form over N Vic this afternoon and deliver more rain overnight, ...given the moisture currently sitting over SE Aus and cold air aloft. Water vapour image currently shows:



If it goes our way in N Gippsland, it would be accompanied by a light SE'ly air stream.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 31/08/2018 14:29

Good post P, thanks - very informative smile

Dropped 5C from 1030-1330 when it swung from N/E to W, bought some more rain, another 4.4mm since 0900, very nice.

ACCESS has an E/Coast C.O.L. by 2200hrs today, be good to see it settle and not wander of E to NZ.

GFS talking 31mm for Sale on its 10 day- (At the moment) -

https://www.windy.com/-Rain-accumulation-rainAccu?gfs,rainAccu,-37.810,148.085,7,i:pressure,m:cBEakgh
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 31/08/2018 19:00

Yep Samboz, gradually got really cold from mid morning onwards (came home from a bike ride with dribbly nose midday) in light rain that had slowly set in.

That rain ramped up to steady and continued to late arvo and boosted the rain gauge to 10.5mm in past 24hrs when tipped out just before, beating the received 12 days ago, to become the highest 24hr rain tally here since mid Feb smile My mate in Stockdale wants to take all credit because he bought a semi load of water yesterday wink

Interestingly, with the baro currently at 995 hPa, also becomes our "lowest low" since mid April.

Synoptics for tonight remain interesting for Gippsland, if rain returns and there's a hint of SE/E out there, could get even luckier?:



....and if anyone else is a fan of those "impossible to predict" meso low pressure systems that sometimes cut off in SE Aus, I bet they would be watching the radar closely tonight given the water vapour available in this corner of the world?:

Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 31/08/2018 21:05

Originally Posted By: Petros
Yep Samboz, gradually got really cold from mid morning onwards (came home from a bike ride with dribbly nose midday) in light rain that had slowly set in.


Made it back to Maffra with ample timing to a latitude of caffeine laced drinks, confess to chips too!

Steady rain on departure of WAYNEYS car park smile

Gauge here @ 7mm for event pre sunset.

Wed 5/9 looking very cyclable with all
"go" conditions- rain/wind/temp.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 01/09/2018 08:48

Hi Samboz, might have seen your mob out near Tinamba late yest morning. Today I dont want to even see the word "bicycle" .....a horrible apparatus of torture.

Re rain, same over here, last nights fronts simply swept up all the low pressure knots over Aus SE into one low, and then shipped it off to NZ. No more rain, so 10.5mm for us.

.....leaves us to a cold day at golf (where at least a bloke can remain un-seated!).
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 01/09/2018 09:09

Saw two riders on Rail Trail @ Kingscotts Lane.

Get wet ? Torture LOL grin

Wondered why ACCESS looked so different today, certainly rolled it off to the E.

Bairnsdale radar still down, would have been handy for planning this AM,
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 01/09/2018 09:23

Yep that was Petros getting goaded along by Charlie Mac.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 02/09/2018 11:53

Had several showers earlier this morning, but rainshaddowed by Tassie now.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - Spring like Sun before an 'All or Nothing end to Wind' 23-30/8/18 - 02/09/2018 20:35

Emptied out 8mm this morn for event, then got another 1mm round lunch time, wind dropped off mid arvo', sprinkled some light rain but virtually dry after lunch.

Some nice weather next week, cold mornings though grin