Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23

Posted by: macman

Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 14/11/2018 21:25

Thought Id start discussion on the possibility of good falls next Tuesday and Wednesday. Long way off and im Bracing for the usual downgrade but it would be nice if it comes off.

Heard a few forecasts from the BOM saying it will be a stronger trough than this week so fingers crossed.

BTW getting a nice little shower tonight in Wodonga thanks to a tiny little cell that could! Nice to get another mm or so on top of the 8-9 we got yesterday and last night.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 15/11/2018 11:22

Thanks for new tread.

last system failed for Northern Country and next system looks much better is Cold upper low combine trough bring some thundery rains and isolated shower of SW winds.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 15/11/2018 11:38

Thanks Macman - have you thought of putting your location onto your profile?

GFS/EC/AccG all looking similar for this potential event:



Something to watch as the conditions develop, would be nice here after 14mm fell yesterday.
Posted by: Lindsay Knowles

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 17/11/2018 12:13

What are everyone's thoughts for Thursday ? Should we change the date of this thread to include the 22nd ?
Posted by: samboz

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 17/11/2018 12:34

Some models thinking rain up to and including Fri. 23/11 LK,
eg - EC 17mm on Fri re Sale.

https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/East_Sale/long.html

ACCESS also with less activity, but some rain nonetheless.

Thursday yep, prob Friday, Sat it's all over I think smile

More input pls folks...........................

edit....GFS has an interesting low loitering Thursday for a few days ?
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 17/11/2018 13:39

I think all way Friday

Very impressive that Upper low is playing with us.

Charts are bit messy between Windy Charts so wait next week.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 17/11/2018 14:03

Go for it Loo. Watching this develop with interest from Perth, where I'll try to conjure up another low pressure system to shoot it off east wink
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 17/11/2018 16:56

Ill vote for extension as at very least looking like a ripping cold outbreak and then SW airsteam with showers will extend the event for eastern half in right locations till late in the week.Trying to keep a lid on it as been shattered so many times before. Looking like a 2 part event (3 if you count airstream showers as part 3).

Part 1 trough with bullseye overnight Tuesday into Wednesday roughly Melbourne to here (Gisborne or thereabouts on 00z Ukmet)

Part 2 from west to east across the state from later Wednesday into Thursday(maybe a lull for many during the day) this is upper cold pool/trough.

Part 3 Mega upper trough helps trigger possibly enormous surface low somewhere making for some serious wind and also showers in a sweet spot that's yet to be determined.

LOL fast forward to Mondays 00z run, partly cloudy few showers.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 18/11/2018 20:44

Still super interesting week ahead, models still struggling with where to bomb low at end of week and also with exactly where to place the best of Tuesdays storm event. Harder to pick than a broken nose as they say
Posted by: Petros

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 18/11/2018 23:54

Agree Ruckle.
Posted by: logansi

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 19/11/2018 10:01

Heating up quickly today already up near 28C at 10am here in Portland. Models still going strong on this event, Access even has a follow up low next Monday which promises good falls again - could be a cold wet 2 weeks.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 19/11/2018 12:04

Yeah Ruckle cant wait see how much rain Victoria is needed.

No nastie hot weather so far we into cool weather.
Posted by: LonnyDave

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 19/11/2018 13:04

Looks like an impressive event on its way. http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/cut-off-low-inbound-severe-weather-looms/528789
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 19/11/2018 16:56

Around Lunchtime tomorrow is storm chasers hobby start looking from West for development Thunderstorms.
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 19/11/2018 18:10

Gee would be nice to get a decent fall
Out of this system! Really hopping for 25-50mm
Fingers crossed??
Hopefully gets nice and stormy Tommoz arvo.
Crazy weather continue with snow to 1000m
Thursday lol
Posted by: Petros

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 19/11/2018 21:15

Models all over the shop, but something big is brewing - peaking strongly in areas of Vic yet to be determined! My tip is to watch it all evolve on SatIR.
Posted by: logansi

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 19/11/2018 22:49

Originally Posted By: Petros
Models all over the shop, but something big is brewing - peaking strongly in areas of Vic yet to be determined! My tip is to watch it all evolve on SatIR.


Not sure i've seen such a difference in the models less than 24 hours out from the start of an event, even ACCESSG and ACCESSR have differences
Posted by: samboz

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 07:50

Happy Birthday Ruckle grin a little while back ? blush

One thing for sure, should do OK compared to other rainfall events this year, could be the best.

Fingers crossed for the farmers and water catchments.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 08:05

Thanks I think. Looking good for catchments and a fair chunk of Gippsland. Still a bit iffy around central parts away from the coast with different scenario's still being thrown up.

Windy windy this week.
Posted by: balmz

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 09:56

Watching this set up with interest. For those who are much better than me at reading forecast soundings, looking at this 18Z GFS sounding for Tullamarine:

The turning of the winds in the low to mid levels there stands out to me indicating the potential for some nasty winds with any storms that form. Potential tornado if a supercell gets up somewhere? Anyone else agree? Happy to be proven wrong.

Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 11:11

Happy birthday ruckle smile
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 11:16

Great the change trough is still far away back in SE SA, so give us chance some good development in afternoon.
Posted by: HigherPerspectiv

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 11:23

The ingredients are there, but this cloud cover and lack of heating is an issue. If it breaks up and the temps climb we might be in with luck for supercells.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 11:37

Surface wind shift has advanced a fair way east as well. Little cells west of home have immediate Doppler high winds showing though that might be beam higher up, don't know if yet coming down so early in cell life.

A couple of spots here in the city before.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 12:01

Thunderstorms line firing up NW near Birchip.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 13:31

With the ingredients available today, I'd watch my humidity meter more closely (as it builds up) ...than the sky for a sunny break.

Sitting over here in Perth, wishing I didn't own a flat-roofed house back home!
Posted by: gleno01

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 13:47

narsty little storm cell developing just north or Echuca, Kyabram them I hope we get here at Shepparton, early days yet
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 14:11

Looks good in my West/ NW looks heavy cells
Posted by: balmz

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 14:27

Things really starting to get going grin Good to see some thick looking cells developing in the band. I was worried things wouldn't reach near their potential.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 15:08

Not very good is fast moving no shelf clouds and only dumped 6mm that not what expected. Wind shifted W/NW
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 15:12

Looks pretty impressive for home, going to miss it. Stupid work.... mad
Posted by: gleno01

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 15:35

direct hit here, epic thunder and lightning will upload video later ,constant thunder, some lighting strikes very close, heavy rain for only 5 minutes, awesome
Posted by: balmz

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 16:29

CBD got a direct hit. Took these two images about 5 minutes apart facing the same view. Streets below are a wash and some really nice close and loud CG's hitting some of the taller buildings! Gonna be an absolute mess of a commute home that's for sure.

*EDITED to remove photos! Need to re-size*
Posted by: gleno01

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 16:40

https://youtu.be/d5HtH2TdvS8 click on here for quick video of a loud storm we got today
Posted by: Weather_Viewer

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 17:02

I'm guessing that's the Main Course for Melbourne and Central Areas?

Any predictions if there will be much more follow up rain this evening?
Posted by: Alex_96L

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 17:14

Dang those clouds were moving fast when they came through and it absolutely poured down here!

I had the whole thing recorded on my outdoor camera but a power flicker caused my PC to restart so I lost the file frown
Posted by: balmz

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 17:20

Originally Posted By: Weather_Viewer
I'm guessing that's the Main Course for Melbourne and Central Areas?

Any predictions if there will be much more follow up rain this evening?


Looks like it. I think we are due to get some rain developing overnight though.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 17:20

Anyone expecting any more between middle to NW Victoria or its over until cold upper low move over.

Looks very stable and humid 65% 20c no winds.
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 18:20

I think you will be lucky to see anything more but don't rule out the odd cell overnight. Especially if you are in the lucky little area at the heads of Phillip Bay. I'm Happy With the day. I got a lovely panorama and a time lapse of the shelf cloud marching across Melbourne
Posted by: samboz

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 20:09

3mm at Sale, pretty much calm atm.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 20:15

5.8mm from the brief blast this arvo. Looking increasingly appealing to the west, wonder if it will make it.
Posted by: doogasnow

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 20:18

14mm up here in about 10min
Posted by: blu

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 20:19

i been away for a few years but i must say this system was impressive in Melbourne CBD i got soaked in docklands and got to see some good lighting

I hope tonight holds more
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 20:33

Yep was sitting on a train at 410 at Southern Cross and it was pretty awesome.
Posted by: Weather_Viewer

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 20:35

Interesting cells popping near Ballarat, heading towards Geelong way.
Posted by: blu

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 20:58

i got soaked at 800 bourk st at 4:14pm amazing lol
Posted by: balmz

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 22:22

Sparking up out West now! So torn, I have to be up at 0530 but have a great Western facing view.. really want to watch lol.
Posted by: balmz

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 22:37

Some images from this afternoon's storm in the CBD. Was quite a show from the office. Images taken 5 mins apart. Visibility quickly went to near zero. Saw a few CG's rain down on some of the buildings.



Posted by: Petros

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 20/11/2018 23:26

Thanks Balmz - fine with cold southerly over here in Perth frown
Posted by: samboz

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 21/11/2018 06:15

East Sale with 16mm, the gauge at here in town looks similiar grin

Bit of a breeze, sat. pics show it is pretty much all over here until the next S/W cold front later today.

East Gipp. hasn't done real good so far, W & S Gipp OK.
Posted by: gleno01

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 21/11/2018 09:28

from Seymour down to Tassie has done well, nice rain totals, 5.6mm here only, nice little thunderstorm yesterday, interested to see what we get in the next 24 hours , hopefully another 5mm would be nice
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 21/11/2018 09:50

Had 6mm Thundery then overnight 3mm.

Now nice sunny tricky morning.

Cold and Gusty winds on way.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 21/11/2018 10:48

"Just" 4.6mm overnight so 10.4mm event total, some more thunder around 11pm was nice to hear. Good ol wheelie bin thunder.
Satellite spectacular atm, if it was July I'd be looking for snow
Posted by: balmz

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 21/11/2018 11:21

Originally Posted By: Ruckle
"Just" 4.6mm overnight so 10.4mm event total, some more thunder around 11pm was nice to hear. Good ol wheelie bin thunder.
Satellite spectacular atm, if it was July I'd be looking for snow


Disappointing I ended up sleeping through the Wheelie bin thunder! Radar / lightning tracker shows I copped a direct hit about midnight and got another 10mm or so in quick time but didn't hear a peep.
Posted by: logansi

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 21/11/2018 11:41

How good does this look!




Pressure down to 999 now in Portland
Posted by: balmz

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 21/11/2018 12:04

Originally Posted By: logansi
How good does this look!

Pressure down to 999 now in Portland


This post needs a like button!
Posted by: balmz

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 21/11/2018 12:07

It's a misleading picture outside with that low approaching! Definitely the calm before the storm.

Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 21/11/2018 15:06

Tonight into Tomorrow SES will busy with falling trees
Posted by: willitrainagain

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 21/11/2018 15:41

Getting smashed over here
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 21/11/2018 16:01

Looks like Low Eye soon smash inland wards to Victoria West
Posted by: Lindsay Knowles

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 22/11/2018 06:48

Pressure got down to 994.4 hPa going by both of my stations at home in Bayles. Only about 10mm of rain since 9am and hardly any wind.
Posted by: balmz

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 22/11/2018 09:34

What is everyone's thoughts on storm chances for today for the metro?
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 22/11/2018 11:12

Had 10mm ran and nice upper low Eye above Bendigo winds shifthing clockwise little clear sky very unusual see it.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 22/11/2018 12:00

I hear Maffra got 16mm from the storms and another mm or so from overnight showers.

Busy winding up another low pressure system to roll of East here in cool Perth.
Posted by: Alexia

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 22/11/2018 12:31

We have had 31.5 mm rain so far in this system plus a hail
storm this morning just pea size still shreded a lot of leaves
in the veg garden.
Posted by: logansi

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 22/11/2018 12:47

20mm event total here in Portland so far.

Hope everyone is enjoying this cold wet weather because you better get ready to do it all again next week.

Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 22/11/2018 12:49

15.4mm for the system so far at home. Another 5mm since empty yesterday.

Some pretty robust looking convection around at the moment, at least viewing from the city
Posted by: balmz

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 22/11/2018 14:25

The state view of the radar surely does paint a busy picture right now. So easy to see the rotation of the Low too! Impressive!

Posted by: logansi

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 22/11/2018 15:19

Wild winds have hit now in Portland, powers gone...
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 22/11/2018 15:35

Report of small hail from home, sun back out in city.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 22/11/2018 15:50

Total 34mm over-average November of 34.7mm

Thanks to more low pressure spinning over Victoria this month.

2nd 6mm
6th 7mm
20th7mm
21st 3mm
22nd 11mm
Posted by: balmz

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 22/11/2018 17:29

Some good looking cells West of the city. Pity they ain't moving East.
Posted by: drewgon

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 22/11/2018 18:31

22.6mm for this event so far - Nagambie
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 22/11/2018 18:52

Train ride home was epic. Straight through guts of that line. Sheets of hail, flangs, water everywhere from Clarkefield to Macedon. Only just spitting here at home from this band so far. But picking up now a little. Recently emptied 2.5mm from this arvo so up to 17.9mm for the event.
Posted by: balmz

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 22/11/2018 19:14

Flying out to Brisbane this evening. Good view of that line from the airport and had some heavy showers here too. Flights are in chaos with the Sydney delays added in too.
Sitting back in the lounge with a beer enjoying the weather!

Posted by: gleno01

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 22/11/2018 21:11

https://youtu.be/wQI9BP0Y_ek check out my time lapse photos
Posted by: Petros

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 22/11/2018 21:15

Enjoy Balmz, thanks gleno1.

Cool with misty periods here over at Margaret River.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 23/11/2018 07:29

Cold and windy here in Sale, would think it was Winter again, wind 35mph gusting to 60's.

Turned heater on by 8pm last night !

24mm over this period in town.

Hope your quality survey is going well P,some nice samples
in that area grin
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 23/11/2018 11:48

Feels September with warm Heating in SE Australia.

13c clam overcast at 11.30am

More upper low by next Tuesday bring more rain, but will be warm uppers as mild 20s all next week feels better.
Posted by: balmz

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 23/11/2018 14:20

Anyone else think the Ferny Creek weather station could be providing some false readings?

I noticed it clocked up 47mm to 9am today and is already back up to 30mm.

Comparing this to the closest other station (Scoresby) at the bottom of the hill, had 19mm to 9am and is currently on 8.6mm.

Is it false readings or a case of orographic rainfall with the moist WSW winds?
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 23/11/2018 15:03

Pretty Confident its legit
Posted by: balmz

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 23/11/2018 18:27

Originally Posted By: Ruckle
Pretty Confident its legit


Fair enough! smile I probably would be in a better position to tell if I was home and saw the rain myself. Just looking at obs from sunny QLD right now makes it harder to believe I guess!
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 23/11/2018 21:13

It's legit. One of my colleagues lives nearby and has had even more. The Dandenongs often do very well in this type of situation.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 24/11/2018 09:56

6.7mm mostly in mizzle since last empty. 24.6mm event total
Posted by: samboz

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 24/11/2018 20:44

30mm for event(s), pretty handy!
Posted by: Alexia

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 25/11/2018 05:42

Great to long last see you Samboz get good rain.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 25/11/2018 07:47

smile

East Sale BOM has 16.6mm since 0900 y'day. In town about 5mm'ish.

Headed south y'day and could see some black rain clouds heading for Sale, it must have just skirted Sale township on the East side.

The farmland east of Sale is desert like, bare as bare so they will be happy for that 1/2" of rain that pelted down in approx one hour after 1230.

Posted by: Petros

Re: Trough with embedded lows Nov 20-23 - 27/11/2018 13:34

Just came home from 11 days in Perth, poured out 57.5mm that fell while away, adds to 14mm poured out in the 2 days before I left.

So Maffra has had 71.5mm rain over past 14 days smile Royal Maffra should look a treat when I bat up again there tomorrow (rain permitting).

Can see from Traralgon back, that its been patchy though.