Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18

Posted by: logansi

Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 23/11/2018 22:09

After a VERY short break Victoria will be impacted by another upperlow from Tuesday, moving fairly quickly accross the state and clearing mostly by late Wednesday, with the possibility of more widespread rain. Here is a look at GFS from the latest run. Won't be as cold as this week with Temps in the mid-high teens in the south and 20's in the North.

Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 24/11/2018 20:16

EC and GFS have pulled the heavy rain northward on todays 00z run.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 25/11/2018 07:53

ACCESS G this morn. concurs, the high way down south of Tassie may be one of the factors with the low that bears so much promise, but at this stage could be exiting mainland Aus up Sydney way.

Large cut of low like situation with this event over central eastern Aus.

NSW could do very nicely out of this, maybe coastal flooding, and any rain at all in Vic will be good follow up to recent falls.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 25/11/2018 08:06

GFS this morning seems to say it all now that I look
at it.

http://stormcast.com.au/raincast.html?ops=gfs:2018112412:0:192:vic:nul#rc
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 25/11/2018 08:46

Yeah might be interesting for those in the far north west but most now look lucky to get a shower.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 25/11/2018 11:31

Hmmm EC seems to have gone further north. Interesting that Ukmet is a bit further south so giving a reasonable follow up from ranges north and out east later. CMC also further south.

All models have pretty solid rain atm in NW VIC and adjacent parts of SA.

Tonights run will be interesting, hard to imagine a low crossing NSW coast wouldn't be pulled south a bit once crossing and give at least the far east a bit of a drink.
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 25/11/2018 13:08

Thanks Logansi.

Regarding low pressure centre more north this time, for Gippsland this is actually a positive. My own Nth Gippsland records show that flooding easterly rain events typically involve a baro reading nearer to 1016 hPa.

....a bit like Wednesdays setup:



.....but unfortunately this system looks to be steadily moving towards the Tasman - so at this stage useful, but non-flooding rains for Nth Central and East Gippsland. I reckon the Latrobe might run a banker at Rosedale by the end of next week - plenty of wet around the Warragul/Nojee/Mt Baw Baw region from this (still lingering) past event.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 26/11/2018 08:31

Wow P, big call and I will doff the hat to you on this one!

The big low way down south is the impediment ?

ps - hope you are right btw.
Posted by: balmz

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 26/11/2018 08:43

Looks like there is pretty much model agreement this is going to be more of a significant event for NSW now. Look at that Access-G 100m+ Bulls eye over Sydney!
Posted by: logansi

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 26/11/2018 09:33

Yep, other than storms in the North West really not looking like much for us down here in Southern Victoria. Instead looks like a mostly dry mild week hopefully with some sunshine which would be nice.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 26/11/2018 14:00

ACCESS R, Sale area lucky to see 5mm Wed on my amateur interpretation - YMMV. grin

Total in gauge, Sale town - 35mm - (last week and over weekend) -very nice.

Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 27/11/2018 08:47

Models have pulled activity south somewhat on this mornings run..still looks ok for East Gippsland too
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 27/11/2018 13:47

Just watchin the radar just now and it looks like the the cap broke around 1300

Maybe we can snatch something out thin air today..... I think its starting to warm up now that the morning cloud layer has burnt off. Maybe I will head on out to Yarra Glen with the camera tonight
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 27/11/2018 15:49

Thunder reported from home. No rain yet. Hazy sun here in the city.
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 27/11/2018 17:06

In between two storms in South and North but very slow moving, humidity is very good does drop some rain from small clouds.

The West is likely to bring some when wind shifted

Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 27/11/2018 19:43

Raining up-here nice
Posted by: drewgon

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 27/11/2018 20:12

3mm up here in Nagambie so far, hopefully a little bit more of the next couple hours.
Posted by: Ruckle

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 27/11/2018 20:40

Man this is frustrating
Posted by: drewgon

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 27/11/2018 21:14

up to 8mm now, We are getting very lucky with how slow moving this is. Interesting on the radar, moving sort of west but then more pushing south
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 27/11/2018 21:36

5.5mm so far
Posted by: Weather_Viewer

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 27/11/2018 22:45

Really bizzare conditions out there!
Just had a brief heavy shower drift in from the East off the bay here in Tarneit.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 28/11/2018 06:58

Sydney's copping it, 64mm !

See Combienbar (E/Gipp) with 17mm.

Lots of blue sky and sun here this AM, bit of a light
breeze from S/E.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 28/11/2018 07:24

And much, much higher MM figures on WZ - big rain event!

Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
Obs hill should get 100-120mm by 9am. The rain rates right up there with May 2003 (though not as heavy as back then) for the beaches.


Would have caused major flooding in this area had we got it.
Posted by: drewgon

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 28/11/2018 14:09

Nothing to Sydney, but ended up with 19mm for the 24 hours. Amazing from a 0mm Forecast grin
Posted by: chasers addict

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 28/11/2018 18:17

Nice sunny Today, Sydney dumping rain, Brisbane missed no rain thunderstorm over the sea wasted...Cairns heatwave.
Posted by: samboz

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 29/11/2018 08:21

Put up with that drewgon smile
Posted by: Petros

Re: Vic - Another upperlow with possibility for more significant rain 27/11/18 - 30/11/18 - 29/11/2018 13:51

Good rain reported at Merimbula as well.

About to spread super on a newly sown fairway at Royal Maffra, course looks great after the 71mm recently. Shame we missed a sprinkle from this chance.