Perth and WA day to day weather

Posted by: Lert

Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/07/2005 09:32

Hi all
Have started this thread to cover general day to day events around Perth and the rest of WA.

This morning very cold in Perth. 0.6 at the Metro site and -0.9 at Jandakot AP. A good frost is evident on the Carine open Space grass and quite crunchy underfoot.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/07/2005 10:52

Yeah it was a frosty one for sure. I went for a bit of frost chase this morning smile Saw some patches where even the soil was frozen solid, though only the top few mm. No frost at my place, though we are a bit higher than the surrounding area, only got a min of 2C.
Posted by: fug81

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/07/2005 13:03

I had a rock solid layer of ice on my car this morning. I tried to clear it with my windscreen wipers but they were frozen to the windscreen! Never seen that before smile

Jandakot got to -1.5 right? Thats impressive.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/07/2005 13:17

Yeah -1.5 at Jandakot was the coldest in the metro area though the coldest in the SW was -2.7C at wandering closely followed by -2.6C at Bridgetown. Both of these just missing out on a record by about 0.3C. It should be almost as cold tonight as well so should see some more sub zeros around the SW tonight.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/07/2005 13:18

It got to a balmy 4.2c here laugh
It's a lovely morning, it might only be about 11c at 11am but because there is no wind it feels a lot warmer than that outside
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/07/2005 13:22

Yes, I jumped the gun a bit with the mins which occured after 7am.. Perth Metro ended up at 0.5
and Jandakot -1.5..

Heard a report on ABC news at 10am that snow had been reported falling out near Norsesman somewhere this morning.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/07/2005 13:25

Noresman?! wowzers thats only like 300m asl isnt it?

1C is the forecast for Perth tonight now...

Edit: Noresman is about 270m asl and they did report some light rain this morning with a temp of around 4C so it is likely
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/07/2005 16:41

I think as soon as i said it was a lovely day a freezing Se'ly wind increased and scattered Sc popped up everywhere. Now it's bitterly cold and cloudy, but i should have expected this, this is a tyipcal day when a high ridges in and we get Se'ly winds. It's normally interesting actually, when a high ridges in and winds turn Se'ly you often see cloud clear the west coast, but a layer of Sc or St remains south of the ranges.Then when winds turn further east it's clear everywhere
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/07/2005 17:30

More on that report of snow 'near' Noresman, this from the ABC site:

Quote:
Reports of snow in WA Goldfields
The weather bureau says it has received reports of snow falling on Western Australia's Goldfields.
Senior meteorologist Bruce Buckley says a truck driver travelling near the Lake Johnson nickel mine, 120 kilometres west of Norseman in the State's south, reported seeing snow falling early this morning.
Mr Buckley says although snow is unusual in the area the conditions last night were perfect.
"We've looked back through the charts and the conditions that were prevailing at the time conducive to well, what we'd actually call sleet, which is a mixture of snow and rain," he said.
"It occurs when you have air temperatures in the order of two or three degrees, a slight breeze and that's exactly what was occurring in that part of the world in the early hours of this morning."

Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/07/2005 10:42

Another frosty one for Perth and the SW, even had frost on my roof this morning, looked quite cool smile

Noresman has recorded an hourly temp of -4.1C which means they might have gone even lower, must be close to a record for them and possibly even the state?
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/07/2005 11:28

Yes, really fresh this morning. My car had ice on the roof for the first time this year.. Had a nice frost chase, the Carine Open Space area was nice and crunchy under foot again..
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/07/2005 11:35

Ok, another go..

Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/07/2005 13:23

nice pic lert, a real wintery looking scene. smile
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/07/2005 23:09

Now isn't this just the problem with Perth's day to day weather.

Wake me up when something actually happens, will you? (But I am enjoying the sunshine...)
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/07/2005 01:59

In success which is physically across the road fromn jandakot was it also -1 because there was no frost on anyones lawn in the morning??

Looks like 3days of showers coming. I hope we get more rainfall.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/07/2005 16:12

Yeah Vinny it seems like ages since we've had rain but it has only been a week, I was getting so use to the regular rain of June and May. July isnt looking too good rainfall wise only 18mm and we are almost half way through the month, we should get a little bit during the week but not much more than 10-15mm I think.
Posted by: fug81

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/07/2005 10:37

-2.5 this morning in Jandakot, making bloody difficult to get up and go to work wink

Might go check what the temps around the state were...
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/07/2005 11:14

Yes, some impressive lows around the state this morning, -3.9 at Collie East, -3.5 at Southern Cross (both hourly readings so may have got lower). The Perth Metro site recorded 0.2 ..

I was going to go for a frost chase but the car was iced over so not much point smile
Posted by: fug81

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/07/2005 13:08

yeah, the 9am bullitin says -4 for Collie East and Bridgetown, with a swag of sites on -3.
Posted by: Thunder head

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/07/2005 20:30

very interesting to see the oceanic effect on Rottnest island: Sub-zero temps in Perth Metro, 0.2c in Perth city eek while Rottnest island has 10.8c! Quite incredible.

Btw, how does Perth city get such low mins when Melb city aws hasn't recorded such values for years, regardless of how clear and still it is?
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/07/2005 21:11

Good question TH, the Perth site is probably about 20km from the coast and seems to be 1 or 2 degrees cooler than previous recording locations. My place is 3km from the coast and my min. this morning was 3 deg. and zero on the grass. As you say Rotto was relatively warm and this was due to the wind being at least 10 knots whereas the Perth site was calm.. It seems to me that the nocturnal radiation only occurs over the land and the inversion breaks up over the water over a short distance.
I used to wonder 'where does the wind go at night?' so while near the Stirling Ranges on a dead calm night took a drive up to the Bluff Knoll carpark and sure enough, blowing about 15 knots.. The wind due to pressure gradient stays the same only above the inversion..

Anyway, thats my take on it..
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 13/07/2005 10:54

The situation of the Perth AWS is (apparently) in a bit of a dip which would explain the relatively low temps it gets. When I was living in Yokine I was getting similar temps as the AWS which would have been 3-4 ks away and I also was in a dip, now I have moved and I am a bit higher up the last week or so I have consistantly been 1-2C higher than the Perth Metro site.

The effect of the ocean can be seen with the comparison between Swanbourne and other inland sites too, it is consistantly 2-4C higher on cold nights. Rottnest not only has the ocean as Lert said the wind is usaully stronger out there and I think the AWS is a bit higher than the surrounding area as well.

As far as the Melbourne City site, it is understandable that this doesnt get that cold, it is situated just a few meters from roads and the city buildings which would keep the heat of the day in and not allow too much to escape at night, also it isnt in a ditch, it is quite high compared to the CBD and such. I think on frosty nights the further you get out of the CBD in Melbourne the lower the temps are, I notice the airport gets a lot colder overnight.

Oh yeah almost forgot about Perth, had a semi decent amount of rain at my place, 15mm overnight, though the metro site has only got 8.8mm, how did you go Lert?
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 13/07/2005 11:55

Hi Tim, I had about the same as you..my 'gauge' registered 16.5mm to 9am. Probably get a few more today from passing showers..
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/07/2005 17:20

It is kind of weird with perths weather at present. Most of the heavy rain came in May and now we are getting similar to what last year we got in september and october. The cold fronts are not as strong and the highs are much stronger some at 1030+++

ASo far about 30mm but should get 171???

Lucky though that perth is warmer than adelaide at present??!!!!
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/07/2005 17:22

Should get 21 degrees next week belive it or not!!!
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/07/2005 17:35

Hey there Guys, just found this forum and Ive been on weatherzone silver for 3 years! shocked anyways, its great to see that there are others in Perf keen on weather, maybe we could go chasing some day?

Yes its been freezing recently. I live just behind Challenge Stadium, and the coldest Ive got here is 2.9 deg on the 7th at 6.31am. heavy frost in surrounding areas tho. But i think this cold weather sucks! :p

Oh and it doesn't look like we will get above average rainfall in July as we have in May and June either!
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/07/2005 18:35

G'day there Chaser..welcome to the forum..well the wx was beaut today with some towering Cu and what I know as 'rockets' from time to time. I'm not sure what the real name is but they are extra vertical development from the top of a Cu going to around something like twice the vertical development of the Cu. Maybe someone can fix me up with the real name..
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/07/2005 13:59

Yeah Welcome Chaser, always good to see more perthites on the forum!

Hey Lert I noticed those nice looking cu's too, I think the proper name for the excessive vertical development is castellanus, becuase they look like castle towers, makes sense smile Looked very impressive at sunset too with them lit up by the setting sun.

Well we do have some weather coming up in Perth soon, got a cold front coming through midweek that will probably get grinded almost to death by the monster high forecasted to form over the eastern states, but hopefully it will still be strong enough to deliver some decent rain by the time it gets to us. July is on track for a very dry month indeed, will take a far bit even to make it halfway to the average for the month.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/07/2005 21:55

Hey it's 19.30 on sunday and already 9 deg! Mad. it's gonna be a cool one.

Yesterday between 1600 and 1830 Dally got 13mm from that mid level disturbance. Yup great Cu's sat evening up north. I really can't wait till the summer gets here so we can all see more of them!

Hey Im gonna buy a LD-250 lightning detector from Boltek in the states for the next storm season....(cheaper than the Weather Shop) and with Weather display, may be able to have it live on the net. Would anyone be interested in having it on the net?
Posted by: fug81

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/07/2005 10:41

2.1 in the city, 0.0 at Jandakot. Nice.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/07/2005 10:57

Yeah I dont know about nice fug81, I prefer rain and lots of it! smile Although this front on Wednesday doesnt look like getting too far with the concrete wall, aka the eastern states high in its way, there looks as though there might be a few follow up fronts which might deliver the goods.

Chaser80: I think all of us in WA would be very interested in a website showing live lightning data, I know the WZ one is useless, never shows a strike unless one hits whatever detector they use I think laugh smile What is the range on it?
Posted by: Matt Pearce

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/07/2005 11:25

It only has detectors in the southeastern states so its "range" is really limited to only QLD, NSW, VIC, TAS and to a lesser extent SA. It is useless for WA and NT.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/07/2005 11:33

Ahh that explains it Matthew! why even have a lightning page for WA then? It seems about as useful as having a radar page for the northern Interior of WA. Or is it there so WA and NT people feel that they actually do get the same services as the eastern staters?
Posted by: Gulf Lines

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/07/2005 11:49

lol don't go there Tim. Has been alot of debate on that some time ago! I agree with your sentiments though.

Anyway back on topic, when is your next period of wet weather due? I note that it has been fairly dry of late after the massive start to the season.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/07/2005 12:09

Yeah I wont PaulM I know it doesn't acheive anything.

Yeah it has been really dry herethis month, well dry by our winter standards, May and June delivered 440mm which was amazing, the wettest two month period for ages. Though it was only really the metro area and surrounds that got the heaviest falls, the rest of the SW area mainly got around average or even a bit less. The catchements faired alright but still not as well as the metro area did, we need some dams in the Perth suburbs I think, maybe dam the swan at Mosman park :p smile I remember seeing the map of rainfall for June and seeing that perth and surrounds where the wettest in Australia, that was on the 28th June, then the heavens opened over SE QLD, NE NSW and stole our glory! smile

Though it does look like a wetter week coming up, We seem to get most of our winter rain nowdays in bursts, when the LWT moves over and sends up Cold front after cold front for about a week or so, sometimes giving us 100mm+ in a week. About time we had another week like that, though I dont think we will get one like that until at least next month.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/07/2005 17:22

Hell yer....bring on the rain!

With the lightning Det Im gonna buy, I think with the software that comes with it, it may not allow me to put it on the web, but if I buy "nextstorm" or "Lightning/2000" I will be able to. If there is enough interest, Ill work towards maybe having it on-line for this storm season.

Boltek quote...on the LD-250
"Three display ranges, 100, 200 and 300 miles (160, 320 and 480 km) allow you to zoom into the region of interest. Zoom out to the maximum range of 300 miles (600 miles across) or zoom in to 100 miles to see only the nearby storms."

Go to http://www.boltek.com for more details.
Tim email me the details of the meeting on the 31st. we can talk bout it then
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/07/2005 17:54

Alrighty mate, will do...

anyone else that might be interested in coming to the ASWA meeting/bbq on the 31st of this month email me for details, tectrix@iinet.net.au
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/07/2005 18:53

Hey if anyone wants to see the footage of the water spout/supercell off the coast on May the 21st, come to the ASWA meeting on the 31st. I was the one that took it....I even made the news! Did anyone see it?

Sorry Blowing my own trumpet:)
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/07/2005 10:41

hehe, blow that waterspout trumpet all you like chaser smile , witnessing a waterspout in Perth is a once in a lifetime experience and managing to get it on film is even better, I just wish I saw it! smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/07/2005 18:33

Got to 22.8C today in Perth, not bad for the middle of winter! Wind is really starting to pick up ahead of the front too, already gusting to around 35 knots on the capes, with Gale warnings issued for tommorow for us.

I still dont have much faith in the coming fronts for delivering too much, though GFS is predicting about 20mm from tommorow nights front, which is sposed to arrive around 10pm i think. I think the front on Friday doesnt look like being very impressive either, the BoM are calling it weak now...
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/07/2005 20:29

Hey got to 23.2 at 3.20pm here in Floreat! Lovely day :cheers: ....but yer this front looks a bit average. You know it is the dryest start to July it 48 years I heard on channel 10 news last nite frown Had a 20.6knt gust aswell today from the north!
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/07/2005 10:47

Well the front is lookign a lot better this morning and the BoM are now calling it a strong front. As well as forecasting rain periods with moderate to heavy falls! Looks as though the front is dragging down some tropical moisture while it is looking at reaching its peak close to when it reaches us so could be quite good after all. Looks as though GFS might be right afterall, I should have more faith in it, it does seem to be correct more often than not.

Theres already a nice looking line of showers about 100km of the coast, should be a good afternoon smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/07/2005 11:14

Well the total for Perth for July is now sitting at 47.2mm and with fairly dismal outlooks for the remainder of July it looks as though we will come close to, if not breaking the lowest rainfall for July record which is 61.5mm, which was set way back in 1876! the first year of records for Perth! all this after about a decile 9 May and June! talk about going from one extreme to another. I just hope August delivers some good rains otherwise we wont be looking very good at all by the end of winter.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/07/2005 01:47

where are peoples post's???! come one perth lets try keep this thread going!

Been quite mild in Perth the last couple of nites
I only got a min of 14.1 here in Floreat last nite, and at midnite here now its only got down to 14.3, and it was only 1 deg higher 5 hours ago! cloud cover helps! yer im up late....on holidays!! laugh only till wed tho frown haha

see y'all at Tim's place on Sunday! :cheers:
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/07/2005 11:46

yeah its almost spring like at the moment, nights around 10C and days in the low 20's, it is rather nice though I would like to get some more rain, we have just missed out on the lowest July currently sitting on 62mm for the month, though I dont think it will get much higher than that.

and yes, see you all at mine on Sunday for the ASWA meeting! smile
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/07/2005 12:54

Quote:
Originally posted by Chaser80:
where are peoples post's???! come one perth lets try keep this thread going!

Been quite mild in Perth the last couple of nites
I only got a min of 14.1 here in Floreat last nite, and at midnite here now its only got down to 14.3, and it was only 1 deg higher 5 hours ago! cloud cover helps! yer im up late....on holidays!! laugh only till wed tho frown haha

see y'all at Tim's place on Sunday! :cheers:
It's a bit hard to post when It's fine and 20c smile
Posted by: Crozz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/07/2005 13:13

if it wasnt so sunny outside this lack of rain would be depressing!
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/07/2005 00:00

Blue skies, nothing but blue skies.....
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/07/2005 15:15

The good thing about the rainfall is we are still above average by over 20mm for this time of the year so as long as we get the 130 something mm next month we should be ok or get a month with above average rainfall again.

There are showers forecast for today????
and next week

FORECAST:
A shower or two with lengthy fine periods today and light to moderate W'ly
winds. A few showers tomorrow with fresh W/SW winds.


TODAY'S TEMPERATURE: Maximum: 20
TOMORROW'S TEMPERATURES: Minimum: 9 Maximum: 19
TODAY'S UV INDEX: 3 [MODERATE]

The overnight minimum was 10.8 at 0027 hours

A shower or two is expected today in a westerly airstream but there should be
lengthy fine periods.
A cold front should move through Perth on Friday with gusty winds and some
showers expected during the day.
The weekend is forecast to be fine with light winds.


MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR PERTH FOR:
Saturday : Fine. Min: 6 Max: 20
Sunday : Fine. Min: 6 Max: 21
Monday : Showers developing. Min: 9 Max: 20

TREND FOR TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY:
Showery periods clearing later. Maximum temperatures: mid teens.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/07/2005 15:16

just hope the dam levels go up more and do not drop or we could be facing a water shortage sooner
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/07/2005 15:23

The lengthy fine periods for today are about a day long I think! not much anywhere around the south-west today. Was a few drops around the place overnight, but that'll be it till tommorows front I would imagine.

The dams aren't going too bad, about 4GL going in last week. Still over 10GL better off than last year as well. follow their progress here:

Dam levels
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/07/2005 23:13

Just to let people know, the ASWA meeting that was going to be on this Sunday has been postponed till the 14th of August as a lot of people couldnt make it.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/07/2005 12:42

It really feels like spring right now, every now and then you feel that bight from the sun back. My old man thinks i am a genius because i predicted this, that is, a very dry July. I said as soon as the tropical infeeds stop, and they will at some stage the rainfall figures will plummet. We would have recieved at least 80% of this years rainfall from a tropcial infeed i reckon.

If you look at a usual winter setup this would have to be one of the driest "normal winter" setups ever. We have had very few tradiontal cold fronts and cold pools.

If you take a look at the charts they are slowing starting to have a west coast trough forming late next week, not as far south as Perth but It's not good to see in late July eek

Even the cold fronts next week look weak and we only look like getting the northern edge, maybe 10mm at best
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/08/2005 00:27

So does that mean that the rain will stop from now onwards that could be disastrous if we get no more this year i mean isn't september the last high rainfall month 80mm.

I hope the highs weaken sothe cold fronts can get to us!
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/08/2005 00:33

if we don't get more rain this year we could be facing a water crisis
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/08/2005 00:34

haven't seen this in a while 31/07

IDW29000
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

WARNING FOR SHEEP FARMERS
Issued at 3:50 pm WST on Sunday, 31 July 2005

Sheep farmers in the SW, Lower West, Great Southern and the west of the Southern
Coastal Districts are warned that cold, wet windy weather is expected during
tomorrow afternoon and night with the passage of a cold front. There is a
serious risk of sheep or lamb losses.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/08/2005 14:27

Very warm in Perth at the moment, currently 23.6C and still going up, definitely feels like spring out there at the moment and its still 1 month away!

Wont last too long though, fairly decent front due tonight, which will deliver some 'rain periods' to perth, which sounds good smile hopefully the totals are good too.

SWW out for the lower south west for the strong winds with the front, already picking up a bit, rotto up to 30knots and 46knots at cape leeuwin
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/08/2005 16:29

Hey Tim and all !

Yep I was out washing my car with just shorts on, no shirt wink Very warm out here in Jane Brook with a current temp of 25.1C!!! Also very dry though - DP of 1C lol RH 21%. Tonight looks very nice! Looking forward to seeing some decent rainfall again! I think last month (July) was the direst EVER ? can anyone confirm this ?

JJ
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/08/2005 16:36

Hey JJ, washing your car, but its gonna rain tonight?! laugh smile

It was the second driest July on record, just missing out on the driest, which was 61.5mm back in 1876, we got 62.8mm! August better be better, I dont think we will be in the running for the driest, should blow away that record tonight, the driest August is only 11 odd mm.

You planning on chasing tonight JJ?

With the dewpoints, I noticed the airport got down to a DP of -6C thats dry! hopefully this isnt bad news for tonights front.
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/08/2005 17:09

Hey Tim!

Yeah I will prob head for Mandurah again and have some fush and chups for dinner - More than welcome to meet up for dinner if you head down that way! I'll make my final decision once the Front starts to appear on radar...

JJ

Jane Brook Weather Observations

http://members.iinet.net.au/~stormswa/weather/
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/08/2005 17:23

I havent decided whether or not to head out either, the front is still a fair way off, probably wont arrive till 10-12pm I think, as usaul in the dark hours. Just for once I would like a strong front to arrive during daylight hours! smile

I might head down to my usaul winter spot, ocean reef marina and work it out from there, dont know if I will get all the way down to Mandurah, but I will give yah a call if I get anywhere near there.

Fush and Chups, your not a kiwi are yah? :p
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/08/2005 18:18

HAHAHA nah mate true blue Sydney boy here :p

I just like the way the kiwi's say it wink


Just noticed Cape Leeuwin had a gust of 90 km/h already very nice with the front still a little while off...

JJ
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/08/2005 18:58

Leading edge of the rain band is about 150kms SW of Perth at the moment. Front looks awesome on the high res vis, dont know if the front or the new sat but it looks very speccy indeed.

hehe, bet yah dont use their pronouciation of 'six' though smile
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/08/2005 19:23

haha you mean sexty sex ? :p

Ok orange W/sw on local now ! I'm gonna start heading towards Mandurah !

TTYA on the road laugh

JJ
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/08/2005 21:14

Well worth a look at the Perth radar at the moment..very nice frontal line coming through..
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/08/2005 21:14

Radar looks awesome, nice line of storms! Just heard from JJ down near Mandurah says there is lightning every second or so, going to head out myself very shortly. smile
Posted by: Thunder head

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/08/2005 21:33

wow i've never seen such a perfectly straight narrow band befor u guys are so lucky 25c then storms
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/08/2005 23:17

yeah it was an awesome looking line on the radar. Went down to the local marina and watched it come in. You could see the line of cbs even at night time, just wish it came through in the daylight hours. Saw a bit of lightning and got rained on.

Still got the front to come through tonight hopefully some more storms on that, though it is looking just like being a rain band by the time it gets to us.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/08/2005 11:21

well rainfall was as expected fairly poor, only 11m for me, the official site getting 12.6mm. Should be a few more mm today though in the south westerly stream and a weak front due through this evening.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/08/2005 11:39

I think you mean mm not meteres...

Yeah not too bad start to august hopefully can get up to 690mm by end of month

at least beat 637mm from last year

so far 13 mm at Jandakot
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/08/2005 11:41

"well rainfall was as expected fairly poor, only 11m for me"

I would like to see photos of 11 m
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/08/2005 11:56

oops, I wish it we did get 11m! smile
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/08/2005 12:16

14mm For me, as expected.

I also did see some lightning around Mandurah, but it wasn't all that frequent, maybe 1 a minute or so. There was some breif lightning over the western suburbs but that didn't last long. It was good to see lightning again, but nothing better than a summer 'thundery shower'.

The outlook doesnt look great either, another 10 days of basically fine weather, maybe a shower or two during that but nothing significant.
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/08/2005 16:08

You blokes did ok compared to me..only 8mm here. That system seemed to go to pieces when it got to the coast for some reason..
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/08/2005 15:54

This don't look to good although things may change...

A dry start to August for WA
Brett Dutschke, Wed 14:58 EST

During July a large area of western and southern WA received well below average rainfall with some locations getting their lowest on record. The start of August also looks pretty dry for inland parts of this region. The bulk of WA looks set for a spell of dry weather over the next week or so due to the likelihood of a persistent high pressure ridge over the state. This means nights will be cool (generally average temperatures or below) and the days mild (about average). In the next few days Perth has minimums forecast as low as 4 degrees (4 below the August average). The main exception will be the southwest corner and the southern coastline. The occasional front will bring a few light showers to this region every day or two, but nothing more than 5mm near the coast each time.

this came from this website

hope the rain fills up the dams soon!!!
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/08/2005 15:55

what a change yesterday from 25 degrees to 16-17

does anyone know if perth is likely to recive rainfall from la nina?????
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/08/2005 22:38

Did anyone see the pyrocumulus today from the fire somewhere to the north? I saw it around 1.20pm but it didn't last long. It was interesting that the Pc was on top of smoke so far from the fire, too.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/08/2005 01:46

i think i did see some weird cloud formation.

I am more interested in Friday it seems we are in for some wet weather
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/08/2005 12:08

yeah I saw that blue skies, looked pretty spiffy, though no where near as good as some of the pyro Cu we got last summer.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 13/08/2005 13:01

Hey Y'all, well with the front a associated features, I ended up with 15.9mm up to 9am this morn, with another 0.5 falling just b4. not bad. looking forward to this front this arvo. :cheers: the baro got down to 1008hpa. Only got a 20knt gust tho. Hoping for more with the next front tho! laugh
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/08/2005 16:27

Although the current GFS looks like a dogs breakfast, the system coming up looks pretty good with thickness 5200 nearly up to Perth. Might go down to Mt. Dale (546m - about as high as you can get close to Perth) on Wednesday morning and see what I can see..
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/08/2005 23:42

Will get close to a record min tonight I think, already 5.9C and not even 10pm yet, the August min of 1.3C looks like it could be broken.

Also amazing rise in Baro pressure in Perth in the last 24 hrs it has risen 25.5Hpa, 9pm yesterday it was 1005, 9pm today 1030.5!!!
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/08/2005 13:44

Pretty close, missed equalling the Aug. min record by 0.1C. Had to scrape the ice off the car windscreen...
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/08/2005 14:30

yeah it was a close one, very cold, had a bit of frost on the roof of my house and I only recorded a temp of 2.1C at my place. A couple of cold nights coming up, though not as cold at around 3-4C.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/08/2005 18:38

Looks like a week of fine weather till sunday when according to this website showers are forecast.

I see to that a middle level disturbance is occuring and the bom are forecasting mid 20's for perth?? eek
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/08/2005 11:11

Just trying to keep this thread going at least make 100 messages.

Looks like some showers over the weekend. Maybe it will get us to 135mm.... still although at the moment below average for the month we are above average for the year.

Can anyone explain how come it rained yesterday on an easterly wind in perth i thought they came from westerlies.
Posted by: tomtankman

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/08/2005 11:21

Hello Vinny. The rain Perth received yesterday was in an easterly as you say. The moisture source came from the Timor Sea, sucked around a deep mid level low.

Next rain for Perth will come from the more traditional west. A front will arrive overnight SAT/SUN with a quick burst of showers.

We are not currently under La Nina conditions but Perth dosen't receive increased rainfall from a La Nina anyway.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/08/2005 00:35

today was wet with 18 degrees more showers tomorrow.

And more later in the week.

good for the dams....
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/08/2005 18:38

looks like showers all week with some weak cold fronts.

Not much today though just cooler.

will we get the 80mm for september ... well.. we shall see
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/09/2005 16:16

Looks like a couple of little cells just near Dwellingup on the radar. bring on the summer season. that rain didnt eventuate for us today as predicted. early next week looks average on the GFS aswell.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/09/2005 23:50

What a place we live in. one minute the high are 1039 now we are getting some good rains.

I hope this goes on till the end of october/november.

Is this a result of global warming caused by cars????

Anyway showers all week with saturday lookin' good.

Any ideas what the next few months for w.a holds?? I am aware we have a 55 percentage chance for long term rain for 3months
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/09/2005 16:36

What a wild week or so in weather.

So far the dam levels are up to 35.2 percent capacity. As a GIS/geography student it is interesting to see that. May reach 40 percent may just get to 37 percent.

I am interested in this rainfall. I wonder if there will be a bushfire risk when summer arrives due to the high growth in grasses/vegetation compared to last year??

Will we have fires burning out of control with 45 degrees? Last summer wasn't as hot as usual.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/09/2005 13:03

Just over half way there with rainfall this month. I estimate we may get 800mm+ this year although i am not sure what model to base that on.

Wonder if we will go into these long fine days soon?

Vinny
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/09/2005 19:24

The occasional shower up my way today, including hail just before 2pm. Seems to be clearing now.

I had good rain last week, about 60mm in total, a bit higher than down on the plains wink
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/09/2005 22:40

hail? gee i didn't know perth got hail at this time of the year.

Jandakot apparently got 3.6mm today. I cannot see any of it on the ground outside.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 13/09/2005 01:20

Quote:
Originally posted by vinny20052005:
What a place we live in. one minute the high are 1039 now we are getting some good rains.

I hope this goes on till the end of october/november.

Is this a result of global warming caused by cars????

Anyway showers all week with saturday lookin' good.

Any ideas what the next few months for w.a holds?? I am aware we have a 55 percentage chance for long term rain for 3months
Next few months is quiet simple.
Becoming drying and warmer, chance of a few hot days towards the end of the period. Although we might have a 55% chance rainfall over the next few months, it makes up only a low portion or our yearly rainfall.

We will get a few rumble days no doubt from west coast troughs and middle level disturbances but they are mostly weak, high based thunderies that do little in the rain gauge. Live towards Northam and it's a different story, some much stronger storms.

But don't expect much mate smile
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 13/09/2005 22:46

I agree with you there Kirk.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/09/2005 01:13

I still think it is possible that perth will receive an annual rainfall of 800+, though as you said before it gets drier as sept october roll by.

Coming from Queensland to Perth to live is a change in seasons that you have to get use to.

When is the official end to perth's wet season, kirk?
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/09/2005 01:15

Most memorable weather experienced: March 28-30 2003 - First time i had seen storms move from the hills to west

did that happen??? i wouldn't know but what exactly happened??
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/09/2005 01:19

storms moving from hills to west??
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/09/2005 12:10

Yes correct, 2003 March was sensational, first time as well i had seen storms move from east to west.

The end of the west season, hard one to answer, i guess It's normally around the same time as the AFL grand final, the last week of september. Of course we will still get a few fronts in October but they will be weak and won't put too much in the guages. November will see the complete death of cold fronts hitting Perth.

Then from November to early March we have to rely on WCT's, Middle level disturbances or maybe a TC. Fronts during summer only help to push the west coast trough inland and bring relief in the form of seabreezes, to put it simply, the high pressure belt moves further south which prevents fronts from having an impact.
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/09/2005 18:43

I remember the storm well. It tracked down from the NE and passed just to the south of my place. Looked spectacular in the sunset...

Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/09/2005 21:16

Quote:
Originally posted by vinny20052005:
hail? gee i didn't know perth got hail at this time of the year.
You can get hail at any time of the year, either in a cold front, behind a cold front or in a thunderstorm. The month or season has nothing to do with it.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/09/2005 00:29

Yep i remember back a good 5 years ago, playing cricket one Saturday morning in early febuary. It has just before the close of play, at about 11:30am, it would have been 38c.... then it gets cloudy and the temps cool to about 32c. A storm moves in and it started hailing
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/09/2005 10:54

Thats an awesome shot of that storm Lert! great detail, I'm pretty sure that was the Feb 18th 2004 storm though, when we were having the power cuts and high humidity?

Either way it was the best storm Ive seen in the metro area, some good positive strikes and the sunset made it so spectacular!

Can't wait for the upcoming summer storm season, should see our first summer type system in about a month I reckon, seems to be when they start. Though I do remember last year on the September long weekend there was some nice afternoon Cu, though I also seem to remember not much happening other than that smile

This is the link to the thread discussing that storm, it was actually the 17th of Feb :nerd: :

Discussion
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/09/2005 13:16

Storm season. Last year we didn't see many just thundery showers
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/09/2005 13:23

WA Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for October to December 2005, issued 15th September 2005
Above average falls more likely in parts of WA
There is a moderate shift in the odds towards above average rainfall for the December quarter (October to December) in a region extending from northwest to central WA, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. However, the chances of accumulating at least median three-month rainfall are close to 50% across the rest of the State.


For the October to December period, the chances of above median rainfall are between 60 and 65% in an area extending south from Port Hedland across much of the Pilbara and Gascoyne districts as well as parts of the Goldfields and Interior districts (see map). It should be noted though, that the December quarter is a seasonally dry time of year in the Fortescue and West Gascoyne with heavy rain being uncommon.

So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six December quarters out of ten are expected to be wetter than the median over these parts of Western Australia, with about four out of ten being drier.

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal rainfall. During the December quarter, history shows this influence to be moderately consistent across much of WA (see background information).

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) fell from +1 in July to −7 in August. However, the SOI has begun to rise again with the approximate value for the 30 days ending 12th September being −1.

With all the main tropical Pacific climate indicators remaining neutral, an El Nio event developing in 2005 is not considered a realistic possibility. For routine updates and comprehensive discussion on the latest data relating to El Nio, together with details on what the phenomenon is and how it has affected Australia in the past, see the ENSO Wrap-Up.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/09/2005 22:24

Well what alot of damage on Sat morning. well not as much as the Bicton tornado Im sure, but it was closer to me so I went and had a look and took some photos. AMAZING! Not sure how to post pics, shocked but if anyone would like some pics I can email them to you. Or let me know how to put em on the message board.
Trees on Pat Goodridge reserve (Cnr Underwood Ave and Selby St) were ripped to shreds, uprooted, and some even snapped completely in half. Im talking large trees, up to 2m in diameter eek I followed the trail of destruction from the coast, City Beach, thru Floreat, down the hill (Pat Goodridge Reserve)into Daglish/Jolimont, over the train line into Subiaco, and ending in Shenton Park. 2Kms south and it would have hit my place eek
Looking like some more wet weather to head our way tomorrow, Tues. Boy todays sun was nice smile :cheers:
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/09/2005 11:50

it is amazing how one day is 25 the next it is wet and in the 18 degree bracket.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/09/2005 12:45

Hey Tom, instructions for posting images:

Posting Images Thread

If you dont have webspace, I can host some for you if you want.

Perth has got the average for September, 83.4mm compared to the average of 81mm and 796mm for the year only 63mm to get to the annual average. So September is the 4th month this year to get aboce average rain, March, May, June and now September. smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/09/2005 13:53

what are the odds of getting average rainfall ie 870mm etc
Posted by: Crozz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/09/2005 16:47

Vinny, Assuming the median rainfall is pretty close to the average rainfall, the chances are 50/50 right?
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/09/2005 09:39

Oh ok then.

How come the average on one web site is 859 the other 860 and another 870mm which is correct.

Looks like some fine days to come.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/09/2005 09:41

i am meaning to say which one is correct??
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/09/2005 11:08

Not sure why you got those numbers but if you look at the averages at the different Perth sites, at the Airport site the average is 786.4mm or 785,7mm depending on the website, the regional office 869.4mm, the current metro site 760.8mm or 773.7mm depending on the website and the Perth Gardens is 865.8mm. Or the 859mm which the BoM use as the 'average' for Perth.

Which I guess they got from averaging out all the sites by the time that site was used and then adding a few digits for good luck smile

So to answer your question Vinny, I would say 859mm because that what the BoM say the ave is.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/09/2005 23:15

yeah that sounds right ... looks like we may get the average this year too and hopefully next month... not good about qld though and their dams
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/09/2005 01:39

You know when the last few years have been poor when you celebrate an 'average year' laugh

Remember, this hasnt been a stellar year, according to the short term of records we should go close to what is expected.

Any ideas the last year we cracked the 1000mm mark? is there a website that states the highest rainfall totals in perth over a year?
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/09/2005 10:28

not sure look it up in google....
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/09/2005 18:44

Well, i don't know which is worse gale force winds or hail in eastern australia.

We are now above average for this month.
That is good to see.

Very Very Very windy and showers all week smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/09/2005 18:46

very windy.....

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Locally Destructive Winds
For people in the Southern Coastal District, including Esperance.

Issued at 4:20 pm on Tuesday 27 September 2005

The passage of a deep low pressure system well south of the state will cause
squally conditions about the Southern Coastal district and may produce locally
destructive wind gusts that could result in significant damage or destruction of
property.

The FESA-State Emergency Service advises that people should secure loose objects
and stay indoors when strong winds develop. Boat owners should ensure that small
craft are securely moored. Driving conditions may be hazardous.


The next warning will be issued by 7:00 pm Tuesday
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/09/2005 18:47

Wednesday

Showers easing
9C - 18C

Thursday

Showers increasing
11C - 17C

Friday

Showers easing
8C - 19C

Saturday

Showers increasing
10C - 20C

Sunday

Showers easing
12C - 19C

Monday

Showers increasing
9C - 17C

Tuesday

Clearing shower
7C - 17C
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/09/2005 21:51

Cool and very windy today, max 15.8. ABC reported that snow fell on Bluff Knoll. I'm not complaining though even if I did get rained on twice during my bike ride.. Just remember Vinny that we have umpteen months of hot, eyeball searing wx coming up soon..I'm not looking forward to that..
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/09/2005 22:43

Well I can't wait for this this weather to dissappear, bring on the warm sunny weather. It's great that we've had a lot of rain but it's a month into spring and look at the forecast, you would think we're still in the middle of winter.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/09/2005 22:52

at least though we don't have humidity like qld where i used to live..

When does the hot searing weather come?? was last summer not as typically warm as it should have been???
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/09/2005 23:45

There were plenty of hot days last summer, I would have called it a pretty average one. And it can rain in Jan and Feb too, then be hot hot hot the next week. Expect a blast of heat in November and around Christmas time, then the end of Jan when school starts again, and of course at anytime in between smile .
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/09/2005 00:27

if it can rain in feb,jan then it is not from cold fronts right???
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/09/2005 00:48

Very weak cold fronts have the potential to reach the west coast and cause some showers through summer, but any rain/storms we do get will mostly be from troughs or low pressure systems.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/09/2005 13:19

I thought last summer was quite different from a 'normal' summer in perth in that we didnt really get any heat waves. That is we would get the 38-40C days but only 1 or maybe 2 in a row and then it would drop down again. Nothing like some summers were there would be 3 or more days of 38Cs.

On another note, we are just 0.2mm off 800mm for the year to date and a touch under 60mm to get for the year ave. smile The dams are at the best level in at least 5 years (Water corp only has last 5 years on their web page) and they are still going up.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/09/2005 13:34

I reckon last years late spring and early December was shocking. I think it was the coldiest i could remember. I mean half way through November temps where struggling to get above 25c. I remember, drving through the vineyards that it was a very late grape season. Normally Sultana grapes come out early December but last year they didn't come out until early January. Hopefully a much warmer start this year
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/09/2005 23:52

when i arrived in perth the flies were out everything looked brown and it was 32 degrees at around end of november.

looks like more showers on the way and we have now got 800mm. good for the dams and all.

vinny..
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/09/2005 17:29

Hey where is the rain? frown We have had bugger all. not much on the GFS either. Mind you tho, its nice having some milder Temps. with these so called "fronts". :p
On another topic, here is a great site http://agspsrv34.agric.wa.gov.au/climate/CLIG/climinfo/awsdata/awssite.htm
that has many other weather station sites on it.

The Ag dept. run all these stations thoughout W.A. They are only updated once a day, as its too expensive to have them live on-line. But, keep in mind if you are looking at the stations, they are a day out. They get reset as do the BoM stations, at 9am, but the data gets credited to the day of the 9am reset, instead of the previous day. EG: The data from 9am on the 28th, to 9am on the 29th gets credited to the 29th. Im fairly sure that it should be credited to the 28th? Is that right?

Anyways, maybe worth a look, to comapare highs, lows, rainfall etc! :cheers:
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/09/2005 12:39

Great site Tom, great find! Ive always wondered if there was a site with all those stations that you only seem to hear about when they get a record or such.

Very windy around the southwest at the moment and the swell! eek

Quote:
Cape Leeuwin to Bremer Bay:
Gale Warning.
Friday until midnight: W/NW winds increasing to 35/45 knots this morning with squalls to 60 knots. Seas rising to 4.5m. Swell rising to 8.0m.
Saturday: W/NW winds 30/40 knots, squalls to 50 knots. Seas to 3.0m. Swell to 8.0m.
Sunday: W/NW winds 20/30 knots moderating to 18/23 knots in the afternoon.

IDW1114003

I dont think Ive seen an 8m swell predicted before, thats monstorous!
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/09/2005 13:00

i know....
Remaining wet and windy in southwest WA
Matt Pearce, Thu 14:51 EST

Southwest WA is stuck in a rut of westerly winds at present, maintaining showery conditions. Cold fronts are crossing on an almost-daily basis, temporarily increasing winds and showers as they do so. The most recent front moved through around the middle of Thursday, bringing a period of gusty westerly winds and showers. The highest falls were 9mm at Bickley and Dwellingup. The showers will ease on Thursday night before increasing again around the middle of Friday as the next front arrives. Similar totals of 5-10mm are once again likely. This pattern is set to continue well into next week, with around 5-10mm likely on most days.


and guess what... dams are now 39 percent full or is that 39 percent empty????

and we could be nudging our annual total too??!!!
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/09/2005 15:41

Tues is looking the best at the mo for rain. going by the GFS. 10-20mm.................heres hoping!
Well its almost October, almost the start of the storm season. I heard Nick say its around the 19th that we see the first storms starting to fire up.......bring on the 19th!
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/09/2005 20:01

I hope we do get a lot more spring/summer storms this season. I'd like to see some storms that produce some large hail, bring on the supercells, ok i'll stop dreaming now. laugh
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/09/2005 23:31

storm season???? perth gets storms in october?
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/10/2005 19:45

Yup can do. but mainly to the north and east. You gotta go chasing for the good ones. Moisture feeding down from the n/w. troughs down the coast which move eastwards.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/10/2005 19:46

Hey we just jumped into the double figures for pages! hell yeah
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/10/2005 22:15

so what type of weather can we expect this month???
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/10/2005 01:26

Just about anything except a 40C and/or a cyclone.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/10/2005 22:19

You can expect anything. But as Blue skys says, not 40 degs or a cyclone! usally quit nice. these are the temps etc from last year just next door to where I am in Floreat.
around 23 deg max.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/10/2005 14:18

no severe weather as said. up to 816mm dams now up to 39.6 percent. very cloudy day, epecting fine weather too soon so that will be good to see.

smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/10/2005 16:43

dams 39.8 percent rain is 14.4 intertesting to seeifwee get 53mm

cloudy today no rain yet
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/10/2005 11:34

Today is a great day looks to be fine.

17.4mm overnight bringing our total to 835 and 31mm this month.

Looks like some great spring weather on the way low 20's.

Glad i am not in qld.... 36 tomorrow??

No rain forecast this week
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/10/2005 09:46

Cold Morning but fine today looking at maybe 21 if lucky....

looks like a fine spell on the way any thoughts?
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/10/2005 15:11

Nice day today, about 19 today.. looks like the cold fronts are starting to disappear.

Good thing is low 20's all woo smile woo ho
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/10/2005 20:00

On a day to day basis...


today it was cold... must have been southerly very icy and windy ... i think it was the coldest in many years.

15 top
fine all week... this thread may be dormant for awhile look like high pressure all week.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/10/2005 10:34

Well it was cold last night, 2.5C not far off the record for October, which is 2.2C set back in 94. Jandokot got down to -0.3C and I bet there are a few others around the SW below 0.

Hope it didnt cause the farmers too much grief, I know they dont like seeing frosts anytime of the year and I can imagine now would be one of the worst times?

Looks like Jandokot got a record for October, firsr ever subzero for October beating the old record of 0.9C set back in 2001.

... and another, Perth Airport got 1.2C beating their old record of 1.8C, so it was definitely cold smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/10/2005 12:12

Nice sunny day today, no sotherlies... thank goodness. Top of 19 degrees

Gee i didn't know it was that cold last night... it is unusual that the temps are so below average at the moment.

High pressures are now dominating.. summer is on the way
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/10/2005 14:57

No southerlies Vinny? dude its really cold frown Im working outside, as per usual. But yer, I didnt think they would be so cold, or strong. mad

V cold last nite for Oct, I got 4.4 here.
1pm and still only 15.8!
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/10/2005 15:20

Yeah I think it is about time it started to warm up, getting a bit sick of winter now. The sun is getting warmer by the day but the days seem to be staying about the same, though they are predicting the formation of the first west coast trough for the 'summer' in about a week or so hopefully we will thaw out then. When you think that it is only about a month until we can get 40C days we sure have some catching up to do!

The fish in my pond want some warmth too, measured the temp in their pond today and it was only 10C, poor little buggers are probably shivering! laugh smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/10/2005 16:20

Records to fall outside the metro area last night:

Dalwallinu: -1C (2C) 1997
Bunbury: 0.2C (1C) 1995
Collie: 0.3C (0.7C) 2002
Northam: 0.3C (0.5C) 1877
(The first figure being last nights min, the second its old record and the final the first year of obs.)

So the first 3 werent that impressive, only having 10 years or less of records to beat, but Northam having 128 years to beat!
Posted by: percy_04

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/10/2005 16:24

WOW! sounds like its been v cold that way..lol keep it where it is, we dont want your cold weather
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/10/2005 22:57

As a person who is relatively new to this website i was wanting to know what is a west coast trough and what does it do.

Will we get any more rain this year or is this the end of it for now? smile

Dams at 40.9 percent
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/10/2005 22:59

it isn't that cold just at nights...

suppoded to be 23 during day
and 13 at night

was 19 with 5 at night and global warming is responsible for this??
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/10/2005 01:10

it is now down to 5 degrees.... oh yeah..... i mean oh no... imean ...

what can i say fine one day ..... fine the next
that is why it is cold!!!!!
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/10/2005 08:29

The west coast trough Vin forms down the coast. from the north, dips down the coast. brings in hot N/E winds. can give us those very hot days, 40+. Gives us some instbility. laugh laugh then moves inland the next day or 2 brings wet humid N/W winds and it gets incredibly humid...yuck. frown Temp drops.

Another cold one here this morn, only 5.6 tho. not AS cold....but still its October!!! mad
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/10/2005 12:14

Quote:
Gives us some instbility. then moves inland the next day or 2 brings wet humid N/W winds and it gets incredibly humid...yuck. Temp drops.
Yeah and thats what I am looking forward too Tom! smile not too much the humid seabreezes though thats when yah jump in yah car and head up to Wongan Hills and such and park yourself under a storm for a free warm shower smile

The charts are showing a more summery pattern developing too with the fronts and lows moving further south and that oh so lovely west coast through developing. Should be a relatively rain free next week or two though, which is great just as long as there are some storms somwhere near us soon. smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/10/2005 14:50

Quote:

The charts are showing a more summery pattern developing too with the fronts and lows moving further south and that oh so lovely west coast through developing. Should be a relatively rain free next week or two though, which is great just as long as there are some storms somwhere near us soon. smile [/QB]
does that mean our wet season is over and now it is qld etc turn for the rain??
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/10/2005 14:57

yeah pretty much Vinny, we might still get the odd front/cloud band come through before summer really settles in, though the bulk of the rain for this year is over. Unless of course we score it lucky with a north/west cloud band that sits on us for a while or even the remnants of a cyclone, but thats not that likely.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/10/2005 17:15

Hey if anyone would like to view the data from my station in Floreat on-line they can at
http://weatherstation.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IWAPERTH3
:cheers: Its updated every 1/2 hour.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/10/2005 17:20

Cool Tom! smile all we need now is a nader to pass directly over the top of your place :p smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/10/2005 22:11

Todays weather was fine though cloudy, expecting a hower or two tomorrow morning and then fine all week smile

Next week 26 degrees!

So yeah, fine all week...... and fine will be set to continue

official statement:


FORECAST FOR THE PERTH METROPOLITAN AREA
Issued at 4:30pm WST on Tuesday the 11th of October 2005 for tonight and
Wednesday

FORECAST:
A shower or two, clearing mid-morning to a fine and cool day with moderate to
fresh S/SW winds.

TEMPERATURES: Minimum: 8 Maximum: 18
UV INDEX: 7 [HIGH]

The overnight minimum was 4 at 0539 hours
Today's maximum was 16 at 0944hours

A weak cold front is expected to move through Perth early on Wednesday morning
bringing a light shower or two. Conditions are expected to become fine
mid-morning, with cool fresh S/SW winds persisting for the remainder of the
day.
Thursday, Friday and the weekend should be fine and mild with fresh afternoon
seabreezes.


MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR PERTH FOR:
Thursday : Fine. Min: 6 Max: 19
Friday : Fine. Min: 8 Max: 21
Saturday : Fine. Min: 10 Max: 22

TREND FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY and TUESDAY:
Fine. Maximum temperatures: Low to mid 20s.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/10/2005 14:15

Today we got 1mm next week 27 degrees woo hoo shorts weather. Lot of clouds but no more rain

looks like summer is getting closer.

supposed tobe 19 today
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 13/10/2005 19:52

Today we had another spectacular spring day with 19 degrees.No rain... it has headed east for a few months.

Can't wait for the warmer temps. smile


--------------------------------------
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/10/2005 16:45

Today more of the same fine, fine and oh yeah did i forget tom mention fine? smile smile smile

20.8 max

it will be interesting to see if we get to the temp for tomorrow

and a clearing shower.... i dunno smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/10/2005 16:46

i mean by the above statement i wonder what this clearing shower will eventuate to.....
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/10/2005 22:51

Yeah, the weather will be great over the next week, now all we need is our first spring storm to go with it.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/10/2005 16:58

What can i say.... clear blue skies nice and warm 27 degrees and even a possble shower tomorrow.

I don't know if perth will get a spring storm jason but who knows.

By the way where is beldon?
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/10/2005 23:46

Northern suburbs, near Joondalup.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/10/2005 14:03

Here we go pple!!!! laugh

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for Damaging Winds and Large Hail
for people in the Goldfields, southern Interior and adjacent parts of the Eucla,
including Kalgoorlie.
Issued at 10:05 am on Sunday 16 October 2005

L.I's of -4 CAPE only round 700 tho. Sheer a little average too, but on the radar Kal there was a line of small storms pasing to the west of it. heading southeast. as they normally do.
:cheers:
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/10/2005 22:41

I thought when you said spring storm jason that you meant in perth, anyway... The weather will be boring for the next few months though pleasant with warmer days smile

We will get up to 27 next week which is 3-4 degrees above average.Is anyone else noticing the warmer nightime temps returning???

It is getting back to putting the sprinkler system back on again weather. smile

Anyway todays weather was fine a few clouds this morning though sunny. A little windy this afternoon and a lot cooler than yesterday smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/10/2005 22:45

if only a storm would hit perth and give us 20mm to make the average..... oh well wishful thinking never hurt anyone
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/10/2005 23:12

Quote:
Originally posted by Chaser80:
Here we go pple!!!! laugh

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for Damaging Winds and Large Hail
for people in the Goldfields, southern Interior and adjacent parts of the Eucla,
including Kalgoorlie.
Issued at 10:05 am on Sunday 16 October 2005
There were most certainly some thunderstorms just east of Perth today - I even took some pics but I can't seem to get onto my website tonight to load them up mad oh well, they weren't much to look at anyway, But the storm line certainly looked interesting from a distance. I was up at Wongan this afternoon and could see them forming to the south and as we drove back down we skirted around the north of a biggie that was dumping load on the Northam area. Saw a little lightning and there was plenty of thunder still about when I got back home around 6pm.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/10/2005 00:35

Very suprised the BoM didnt put out a severe thunderstorm warning for the whole of the wheatbelt today. In places it deserved it! :rolleyes: Tho having said that, there wasnt much in the way of locally destructive winds. just long periods of hail, which could have caused some flash flooding. Lake Grace picked up almost 40mm. But they had a warning.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/10/2005 11:39

If you check the paper today, Lake Grace had a hail storm with 1cm hail that lasted 1hour! Wiped out thousands of hectares of crops, frown and it was 25cm deep! That would explain the temp droping there from 20 degs at 2pm to 10.3 at 3pm! frown
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/10/2005 12:01

Amazing stuff hey Tom!

Thought I would scan the article from the paper and post it up here for those who dont have the paper:



Article Copyright: The West Australian, 17 October 2005
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/10/2005 12:16

yeah great... i saw that too this morning an dmy first thought was that was a pic taken in antarctica.
Posted by: Thunderstruck

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/10/2005 12:16

HOLY SH^t @ THAT!!!!!! eek that is one fair fall of hail!!! geez farmer would be gutted with that on his crops.

TS cool
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/10/2005 12:17

not good considering it would damage the winter crops too.

Todays forecast in perth however is for fine weather with a late shower with weak cold frot hitting at the end of this week

27 too this week 3-4 above the average.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/10/2005 15:05

This week on channel 9 there is a special report on "Perth's weird weather" by Nat! My Nader footage will be on there again:)
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/10/2005 15:26

Any particular Day Tom? You should have asked for more for that footage! smile
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/10/2005 17:13

Not sure bout the day Tim. Just said this week on 9....blah blah blah.
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/10/2005 23:29

Perth's weird weather. confused Isn't this the first time in some years that we have actually had a normal winter. Are they talking about more tornados than usual?
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/10/2005 23:35

Quote:
Originally posted by Thunderstruck:
HOLY SH^t @ THAT!!!!!! eek that is one fair fall of hail!!! geez farmer would be gutted with that on his crops.

TS cool
They were gutted, that region hasn't had a very good trot that last four years with drought and frost and now this.
The hail lay 20cm thick in some places (it fell for an hour) and the 40mm or so is only a guess in a way as the hail blocked up the rain gauges. The damage strip was 50km wide and 150km long (was what I heard) Devestating ain't in it.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/10/2005 10:35

That 'weird weather' thingy was on last night, not bad if a slight bit alarmist, but hey what do expect from the media. smile and there was some great waterspout footage from someone, dont know who! :p smile

I was doing some calculations on that hail event in Lake Grace, 40mm seems like a fairly low estimate when they say that the hail was 20-25cm thick. Though I guess it piled up in lower areas and such, but even for 10cm even spread of hail this would equate to roughly 50-60mm, going by my very rough calculations. They also had footage of this on the news and the crops were absolutly flattened, it was like there was nothing there in the first place.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/10/2005 11:24

Hey guys look at this it sounds good!! What do you think

WA Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for November 2005 to January 2006, issued 18th October 2005
Above average seasonal falls a 50:50 prospect
The chances of accumulating at least median rain during the late spring to mid-summer period (Nov-Jan) are close to 50% across Western Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. The outlooks are based on relationships between Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures and Australian rainfall. Recent ocean temperatures have not been sufficiently warmer or cooler than average to produce a strong bias in rainfall outlook odds.


For the November to January period, the chances of above median rainfall are mostly between 50 and 55% over WA, reaching a little above 55% in parts of the Kimberley (see map).

So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about five November to January periods out of ten are expected to be wetter than the median over Western Australia, with about five out of ten being drier.

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal rainfall. During the November to January quarter, history shows this influence to be moderately consistent in the far north of WA, but generally weakly consistent elsewhere in the State (see background information).

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has fluctuated about zero during recent months with values of +1 in July, −7 in August and +4 in September. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 15th October was +4.

For routine updates on the latest data relating to El Nio, together with details on what the phenomenon is and how it has affected Australia in the past, see the ENSO Wrap-Up.


Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.


More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (WST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Perth Office: (08) 9263 2222.

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 16th NOVEMBER 2005

and


Neutral outlook for WA seasonal temperatures
There are no strong shifts in the odds towards either higher or lower than average maximum temperatures for the late spring to mid-summer period (Nov-Jan) across Western Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. However, 2005 is set to be one of WA's warmest years on record after the State-average maximum temperature for the January to September period was clearly the highest on record.

For the November to January period, the chance that seasonal maximum temperatures will be higher than the median is somewhat below 50% in the northeast half of WA, and somewhat above 50% in the southwestern half of the State (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about five November to January periods out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average across WA, with about five out of ten being cooler.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During November to January, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across large parts of western and southern WA, but only weakly or very weakly consistent over the rest of the State (see background information).

The chance that seasonal minimum temperatures will be higher than the median is between 60 and 70% across most of the southern half of WA (see map). In remaining areas of the State (mainly the north and far southeast), the chances of overnight temperatures averaged over the November to January period being above the median are between 50 and 60%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during November to January to be moderately consistent over most of the southern two-thirds of WA.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/10/2005 14:14

very nice weather today hey all you weather watchers it is going to be 29 this sunday what the...
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/10/2005 23:16

even getting some wet weather woo hoo.....
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/10/2005 13:39

Nice sunny day today low humidity and showers tomorrow what more could you want?


There is still the forecast 29 on sunday smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/10/2005 13:42

byt h way on the watercorps web page it says we shouldn't be putting reticulation on yet what is that all about??????
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/10/2005 23:02

It means that there is plenty of moisture still left in the subsoil region, just under the surface, and the plants will live quite happily on that for a while longer. Plus it's going to rain again tomorrow, and again next week, so things aren't going to dry out just yet.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/10/2005 15:21

Just had 7.2mm in 10mins!
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/10/2005 15:32

Wow! thats an impressive fall Tom.

Ive had 9mm at my place, but thats been fairly well spread out over the last hour or so.

I'm amazed that the metro site and Airport has only got 0.8 and 1mm respectivly. other falls around the metro area are around 4-10mm.
Posted by: Crozz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/10/2005 15:55

Rain only pretty light here in Balcatta, >5mm,strong winds as the front passed though!
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/10/2005 17:35

not much where i am must all be in the northern suburbs. interesting to note is that they are forecasting showers for next week and a low may develop off the west coast.... and yeah we have a50.50 chance of above average rainfall its about time....

cloudy today with little bursts of showers... not sure what the average for this month is now 36mm now gone to 40mm? i don't know
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/10/2005 19:31

Hi guys smile

The front arrived at my place at about 12:45pm with about 7-8mm in 10min also laugh

You can check my weather data for the day here:
http://members.iinet.net.au/~stormswa/weather/download.txt

I ended up with 12mm once the rains stopped. Quite impressive when I was only expecting about 5mm.

JJ
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/10/2005 12:19

what a fantastic day today.. already 22 degrees and nice and warm. Still going for showers tomorrow smile

Yesterday was fine although apparently .6mm fell although it didn't fall near me.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/10/2005 10:37

Well we are about 2 hours or so from getting some showers from the leading edge of todays front, looks fairly god for this time of year, should see around 10mm in Perth. SWW out as well, winds already gusting to 30 knots at rotto and 37knots at cape leeuwin. The air is nice and warm and humid this morning as well, 19-20C with DPs of 13-15C.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/10/2005 13:05

it looks very good

http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR123.shtml

i hope we get at least 10mm or even a few bits more so we can get at least 53mm for this month. Hey tim , the dams are still going up now 41.7% and one of them is 99 percent full smile

it is very humid and is starting to remind me of when i lived in queensland.....
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/10/2005 14:31

Only got 1.5mm in the gauge here. quite disappointing. As the Vin said, looked good on the radar, and even picked up some what just b4 it crossed!

Here the temp dropped 7.6 deg in 1 hour! since Ive had my station, I've never seen that.
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/10/2005 14:59

Hi all
Very windy this morning before the front, now just about zero.. Managed to get 4mm into my gauge which brings me up to 43mm for the month.. need another 10mm to bring us up to the Oct average..
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/10/2005 22:24

Tuesday

Showers
11C - 18C

Wednesday

Clearing shower
8C - 19C

Thursday

Late shower
9C - 21C

Friday

Showers easing
10C - 21C

Saturday

Mostly sunny
10C - 22C

Sunday

Late shower
10C - 21C

Monday

Possible shower
11C - 20C


i am glad it is like this because the dams need a lot of water. I wonder if next year is going to be wet it seems to be every two years it is avaerage. If it is.. we could get dam levels in the 50-70 percent then again...

well at least the garden is looking good what do you guys think??
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/10/2005 10:38

Well I got 7mm from yesterdays front and stream showers, brings my total for the month to 58mm! Must be the first time I have gotten more rain than Perth and you Lert! smile usaully I get the least amount, about time it changed.

Bet Tom is still beating me for the month though?
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/10/2005 11:33

how much has perth in general got??
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/10/2005 11:35

41.2mm for the month, 3.2mm for the 24hrs to 9am and 844.8mm for the year to date.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/10/2005 12:54

what were the stats for this time last year??
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/10/2005 13:43

Well I beat you this time Tim, 9mm for me to 9am and 48mm for the month so far, 10mm behind you..

Vinny, a good place to find past records is here:

http://www.australianweathernews.com/data/DE1_09.HTM
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/10/2005 13:54

thanks....

i also have found out on monday synoptic maps that a low will be just south of perth... very interesting......

maybe not?
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/10/2005 18:00

Nope Tim, Im behind......50.9! Crap weather...Im sick of it......I want that warm sun again just like sunday, Tho even warmer suits me fine:)
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/10/2005 18:59

Hey guys, sunny Gero is... You guess it! Still sunny. Friday is looking pretty good. Monday is definately interesting as well. Wouldn't mind taking the camera out again. That last front was useless up here only a couple of mls. I wouldn't say there'll be much rain in these next two events but nice light show hopefully.
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/10/2005 23:22

Things look better for you on Thursday Stokesy. Most of the rain and possibly thunderstorms looks like it will be near you.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/10/2005 00:18

i thought it was near perth this thursday and next week jason?
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/10/2005 00:39

This system is our first summer type system, where a low pressure system and mid level trough will be situated just to the north of Perth, which will more likely bring more rain and storms to areas north of us. We're more likely to get just a few showers.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/10/2005 10:32

not according to this website

rain on monday!
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/10/2005 15:18

A bonus 3mm for me overnight from stratus type stuff (convergence?). Up now to 51mm month to date.. A few more mm to end the week I'm hoping..
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/10/2005 15:19

perth has only got 43mm so yeah... i reckon it could get the average... dams are falling as of today
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/10/2005 16:23

Come on, I'm sure there'll be enough to go round, Monday is looking better for Perth anyway.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/10/2005 16:44

Yeah I got 3mm too Lert, so up to 61mm for the month for me smile

Some of the charts are predicting about 10mm for Perth from Thursday nights Fridays system, though it seems that the charts have been overpredicting rainfall of late, so I think another 5mm to the end of the week seems most likely, Then another 5mm more or so after that to the end of the month and we should land up with exactly the average for Perth. Good thing is there will be some thundies somewhere around on Friday I think, though more than likely too far from us.

Hope yah get some as well Stokesy, whats Gero looking like at the moment, The weeds starting to brown up yet? Ive noticed our open spaces are starting to get that brown tinge to them though I am sure they are greener than the last few years.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/10/2005 16:47

out of a percentage what would you give to getting 53 mm
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/10/2005 16:48

50/50, either we will or we wont :p
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/10/2005 16:49

so how come dam levels have fallen a llittle today
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/10/2005 16:49

Tim, I went on holiday at the start of October for 2 weeks, came back and what a change, up here is certainly quite brown at the moment. I agree too, as I said before, maybe a nice light show but not much rain to speak of. Gero will get maybe another 5mm more than Perth, if a thunderstorm manages to 'plop' itself over the top of us.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/10/2005 16:51

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
WA SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for LARGE HAILSTONES and DAMAGING WIND
For people in parts of the
Central West
South West
Southern Forecast Districts.

Issued at 2:42 PM Wednesday, 26 October 2005.


Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce large hailstones and damaging winds
in the warning area over the next several hours.

At
4:40pm a particularly intense thunderstorm was seen on radar approaching dWELLINGUP
and expected to affect the town at about 5pm.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* Unplug computers and appliances.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* Stay indoors away from windows, and keep children and pets indoors as
well.
* For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 13
2500.

The next warning is due to be issued by 7:40 PM.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 218. The Bureau and State Emergency
Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.


fooled ya.. i wish this could happen in perth
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/10/2005 17:08

Yeah, good one Vinny :rolleyes:

Maybe next time try to change the time of the observed storm, hard to believe they observed the storm 2 hours in the future!

Yeah Stokesy I was surprised how it got browner here so quickly, seems it happened almost overnight.
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/10/2005 17:21

I didn't know the BOM also did future readings as well! :rolleyes: laugh
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/10/2005 17:52

they did once this year before that tornado they released a sev weather warning a day beforehand
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/10/2005 18:02

yeah the BoM do forecasts Vinny, though they dont make observations in advance, thats what Stokesy was getting at.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/10/2005 22:35

Hey going by the AVN plotter the sheer for tomorrow up round -29degs (Gerro) is amazing! If there were any T.S. that formed from the complex mid level dist coming thru, they would be moving round 80-90km/h!

Tim did I give you the AVN plotter link?

On another thing, I picked up 2.5mm from 5.30 to 7.30am today in that misty rain that came thru. Crap to work in! then 0.5 at 10am. Tot for month 54.0mm!
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/10/2005 10:30

yah Im still winning for the month, 61.5mm for me now after a massive 0.5mm yesterday.

Nah yah didnt Tom, I found the link before but lost it again so if yah can let me know what it is that would be great.

Do you know what the LI and CAPE are looking like for today in the best areas Tom?

By the way on a completely unrelated topic, I noticed that 'Gravity' were playing at the Melbourne Cup thingme at Ascot I think it was, thats a pretty big gig, well done!I

Theres a rather good rain band to the SW of Perth already with the top of it just getting the southern Suburbs, should be an interesting day! smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/10/2005 11:36

yes the radar looks intersting near mandurah although the bom is forecasting for perth just a shower or two increasing in the noon.

the city still has a lot of catching up to do 44mm although tim, we may get it with about 5mm this week and on monday... hopefully
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/10/2005 11:38

Some decent looking cells just off the coast of the northern suburbs at the moment, getting into the middle of the rain rate range.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/10/2005 11:39

what about perth city .... only low
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/10/2005 11:41

hey tim s, when was the last 46 degrees day in perth

by the way

Water Storage in Our Dams on Wednesday, 26 October 2005


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Current Storage: 282.94 gigalitres (GL)
Total Capacity: 678 GL
Percentage of Total Capacity: 41.7 %

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Current storage figures reflect an adjustment to the Water Corporation's share of water stored in Stirling Dam.

Click here for an explanation of the units used to specify water consumption.

The average volume of water used in the 2003/2004 financial year by each residential water service in Perth was 278 kilolitres (kL).


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date 20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
Last Year (GL) 252.81 252.93 253.04 252.78 252.59 252.55 252.30
This Year (GL) 281.56 281.62 282.04 282.29 282.51 283.06 282.94
Difference (GL) +28.75 +28.69 +29.00 +29.51 +29.92 +30.51 +30.64
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/10/2005 11:43

oh yeah... lots of water!!
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/10/2005 12:11

About the dams, you guys probably already know this but the Wellington Dam near Collie was overflowing in early Oct 2005, should post some photos for ya all. Radar looking good for Perth but hardly anything on Gero's. Hey maybe Perth might just get a nice dose of rain?
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/10/2005 12:23

yeah it is looking promising on radar and in reality too, very dark to the west at the moment.

Last time we got 46 was in 91 Vinny, the only time we have, it was 46.2C on the 23rd Feb 91.

I think Stirling dam is overflowing now as well
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/10/2005 12:26

HeyHey Tim. no CAPE and High LI's. all seems to be in the mid levels.

AVN pLotter link

http://www.inflowimages.com/WeatherData/avn2.asp
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/10/2005 00:40

4.4mm in the city tonight (amazing how it is not showering at my place)

perths rainfall this month 49mm now
bad thing would be if next year was like 2004 with 637mm now that would drop the dams but lets hope next year is average so that the dams get over 40ish.

i think we will either get this months average or not. 95 percent chance i reckon it will get there.

does perth get good storms if so when ... not counting the may tornado... since i have been living here i remember one storm ... it had a waterspout or something and was off cottosloe and there was lightning and .... are winter storms isolated to certain suburbs?

good news is more showers even next thursday and low 20's smile laugh
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/10/2005 11:19

Thanks for the link Tom, now to work out how to use it smile

Had another 4mm at my place last night 65.5mm for the month smile

Perth occasionaly gets a good storm Vinny, probably about 2-3 times a year, though for the best storms its best to travel, About 100-200 km north east of Perth seems to be the best spot for the better storms, thats during summer at least anyway.
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/10/2005 11:26

6mm at my place overnight plus 2mm for yesterday puts me up to 59mm for the month. I'm still dragging the chain on you though Tim smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/10/2005 13:17

Your catching up though Lert, might need to put the sprinklers on to be sure I win :p

Great day today, nothing better than getting rain at night and beautiful sunshine the next day, well maybe getting thunderstorms instead of rain, but hey can't have everything can yah! smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/10/2005 13:29

gee 6mm no rain in success, atwell area just a light shower of 0.2 i estimate. it is amazing that 20mins north of there it was wet last night and i picked up no rain.. frown

oh well nice and fine tomorrow and 853mm so far this year dams still going up and if we got average rainfall for next two months we could get880mm or even 890mm maybe 900mm eek
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/10/2005 13:31

now taht i have seen the news i reckon i am glad no storms are forecast as western power won't restore our power.... or they might.....
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/10/2005 14:52

I was thinking about you last night Vinny when I noted the nice big rain band was missing the southern burbs.. I didnt mind though as plenty of times you lot get more than us up here..
Cheers
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/10/2005 17:59

looks like south australias weather is warmer than here they are gonna get 20 at night and 30's during the day.... hmmmmm do i want that right now, hard decision.

vinny
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/10/2005 23:36

Well i'm hoping to see at least 30 soon, but with the way the weather is going at the moment i'm starting to wonder if it's ever going to warm up. Only going to be 19 on Monday & Wednesday, which is too low for this time of year.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/10/2005 01:21

is it normal to be low 20's at this time of year?
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/10/2005 23:56

I don't think Perth has a 'normal' anything at this time of year. It can be stinking hot at this time of year, it can also be quite cold (as it is this year). It can be pouring with rain, even snowing(!) or it can be dry as. Expect anything , Vinny, just take it as it comes.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/10/2005 20:19

looks like we should make the average tomorrow

what a great year of falls for perth, hope it continues :cheers: smile

showers tomorrow and this week
smile
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/10/2005 22:57

this is the coolest October Perth has had in a while. Just shows what a absense of El Nino does
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/10/2005 01:02

Had only 2.6mm today. 62.2mm for the month. Huge temp drop again this morning frown Would have been a nice day if it wasnt for the front. weather looking a little average for my band playing at Ascot at melb cup too. frown well the morning of anyways!
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/10/2005 12:33

Hey Chaser, your right about the temp drop after the front went through..only about 15c here yesterday lunchtime..thought it was back to winter. Rainfall for me was 5mm which brought me up to 64mm for the month which is about 20% above ave. for the metro area. Lets see what the little low can do tonight, maybe kick off to a good start to November smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/10/2005 12:37

Jandakot seemed to get showers most of last night even when it had stopped in perth. I think about 6-7mm fell last night so at least the garden doesn't need any watering.

Ironically, yesterday i saw people using their irrigation after the showers, it makes you wonder though.

more showers tonight and this week and hopefully next week

Interesting to note is the thread on the first 40 degrees for southern capitals. I predict the first high temps will be late next month
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/10/2005 13:05

Another 6mm for me so 71.5mm for the month at my place! That'll be the last time I see that much rain in a month for at least 6 months. Perth Metro just missed out on the average, 52.8mm, missed it by this much! smile

That low looks good on the sat pic, hopefully another 5mm or so tonight, which should take us over the yearly average, only 2.6mm to go.

Weather should be fine for tommorow day I think Tom, anyway your drums are water proof arent they? smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/10/2005 14:22

hey tim, perth won't miss out as you said.... as long as we get 0.2mm we have this months average... it is still october smile

hopefully as you said 5mm tonight smile
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/10/2005 14:49

Vinny, October finished at 9am this morning (for rainfall records ) Anything from then on is to Novembers account..
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/10/2005 14:53

really? but it is the 31st today so technically it is still october

why would it be different for rainfall records?

so anything today 31st will be novembers rainfall??
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/10/2005 15:11

Um kinda not really! laugh Only problem is really for the sound crew, who are setting up the system today, so its gonna be there overnite. Oh yer, in the open! eek How much realisticaly (Spelling?) do you fink we could get?
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/10/2005 15:20

I would say 2-5mm, though some places could miss out completely, not ascot of course though :p
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/11/2005 00:58

still waiting for those showers to arrive... if they do that's another story... bom had downgraded them from a few showers to a shower or two today frown

but on the other hand it will be warming up to at least 24 this week smile

did you guys see today tonight (todays one) where they talked about extreme weather in perth.
Not sure if i agree about this 1 degree rise. Is it caused by humans... are we are altering the weather?
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/11/2005 00:59

hah.. weird... i know i posted this at 958pm perth time and it has put it in eastern time so it is next month ie november.... i am not going loopy;)
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/11/2005 01:06

ahh the joys of timezones...
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/11/2005 12:41

looks like some good weather for the next few days
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/11/2005 13:49

Hi all

I think it's time for Perth to get a storm....we've waited long enough ?????? Last good one here for me was back in May !!!

PLEASE let there be storms in Perth this month !!!

JJ smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/11/2005 18:23

looks like the showers are now on friday... only 22mm this month to get... half of last months and then january only 10mm,

dams are still filling up now 42 percent a great total though not enough

i doubt jungle jim that we will get any storms for the rest of this year unless a cold front came out of nowhere and slammed the coast in summer
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/11/2005 18:25

by the way what is on the other side of the hills when you are on the top looking east desert? nothing?
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/11/2005 20:45

Other side of the hills? about half the wheat grown in Aussie! The cultivated country extends east to just past Southern Cross and near Geraldton to the north and Esperance to the south. I suppose it is a desert in a way, a wheat desert..

On the weather front, November is shaping up cool as well with the temp just getting up to 19c before a cool southerly with 17c mid arvo..
beaut clear day but..
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/11/2005 11:33

A cold one overnight too, 5.8C which is the 3rd coldest November night on record. Got even cooler at my place 4.9C.

I just want it to warm up, though I can gaurentee it will be hot on Sunday week, it always is hot as its the day that I am out in the bush all day for rally oz. smile
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/11/2005 23:18

Well Im off to Melb and Sydney on Friday morn. Looks like the weather should be lovley for my holiday! 8.3 degs last nite here. a cold one for Nov....WHEN IS IT GONNA WARM UP??? mad better be warm by the 13th when I get back into Perf!

Doesnt seem like there is much storm potential in the east when Im there........hang on, thats good cause I just want some sun!!!

PS where have you been hiding JJ? smile
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/11/2005 00:15

Yeah Chaser, even the temps in Melbourne are hot at the moment. Even if there are no storms in the east you've probably got a better chance of seeing storms there rather than here. smile

I'm heading off to Darwin on holidays in a couple of weeks, so there certainly won't be a lack of storm activity there.
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/11/2005 11:29

I'm 'Around' Tom smile

Didn't see you at the last meeting though smirk

Tim I'm thinking about going to the Rally in the Hills...Looking at the models this far out...looks like we will get our first deep 'heat' trough on Friday week...should get close to 30C on either Friday or Saturday !

JJ
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/11/2005 12:08

I reccomend yah do JJ, should be fun, I'm going to be out the back of Mundaring for the stages out there on Sat arvo and all day Sunday. I'm hoping for some storm activity to break up the boredom between getting to the road closure point and when the first car comes along. Though crap thing will be that if there is something decent, I wont be able to chase it.

Lucky bugger Jason going to Darwin during their buildup, better get some good pics of storms to make all of us jealous! smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/11/2005 12:29

if the average is 26 during day and 14 at night how can we have 5 at hnight and 22 during day maybe global cooling?

looks fine for most of the week.. hopefully some showers.

i will probably be staying in perth these holidays.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/11/2005 16:04

grey sky... still not evn 26 during day or 14 at night mad at least it is still ok to be outside smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/11/2005 18:01

Yeah even had a bit of drizzle earlier, even though it is cool today, it is still quite warm in the sun, when you get some! smile

Long term outlook looks fairly mundane too, though the extended GFS is still toying with the idea of a heat trough in a week or two. I certainly hope It comes off, this cool and mainly fine weather is not what we should be getting this time of year.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/11/2005 18:03

really.... i believe from what i hear last year was below average rainfall except august and november late was warm high 30's
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/11/2005 18:27

It was a wetter than normal november last year but it was about average as far as temps goes.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/11/2005 18:29

so what do you predict for this november... so far no rain.... what do you think the summer slah now will be like????
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/11/2005 11:37

What a great start to november. At about 2pm the showers moved through and woke me up.

picked up about 7.6mm in the city but Jandakot got about 11.4mm not too bad for a brief light shower as they said last night smile

looks good for the rest of the week low to mid 20's and 10 or 11 at night. This is the eq of qld's winter. I supose this cooler weather will make us apreciate when it does get hot!! :p
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/11/2005 12:27

Hi all

I managed to record 12.8mm at Jane Brook last night ! Very surprising!

And I didn't hear one drop of it hehe :p The Front went through at about 3am-4am.

JJ smile
Posted by: Crozz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/11/2005 12:33

Hooray! We've over the annual ave 859mm- we now have 865mm. Fantastic. Hope the rain sticks around this November, we haven't had a significantly wet year in a long long time. (Even though a part of me is really looking forward to a long hot summer wink )
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/11/2005 21:15

A nice 9mm at my place overnight followed by a sub 20c (just) day. I really like this sort of weather.. And Vinny, dont worry too much about when the hot weather is coming, by the end of Feb. you will be pleading for mercy.. smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/11/2005 23:48

only 10 degrees tonight a little bit chilly!
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/11/2005 12:57

looks a bit overcast today maybe a shower smile

still noway near the average all week temp wise frown
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/11/2005 21:23

Hi, guys, its persisting down here, in the beautiful south west. Its been on and off all day but has set in for the time being. I love it!

Cheers, Jules
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/11/2005 22:07

1.8mm so far... smile

how much rain per year in donnybrook?
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/11/2005 22:35

Hi Vinny, we get about 1005ml on average I think. :cheers: Jules
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/11/2005 23:02

i think you mean mm on average laugh

oh ok then that is much more than perth then,

where is donnybrook i am new to w.a!?
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/11/2005 02:19

You're right, Vinny, mm, l0l. Donnybrook is about 210 km south of Perth on South Western Highway, about 35 south of Bunbury. We're in apple country thanks to the cold winters. We had at least 10 mornings below zero this winter. I love those frosty mornings.

:cheers: Jules
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/11/2005 10:03

Hey there Ya'll! Well Im sitting in a small internet Cafe in Sydney. Had 18mm last nite I see here. Its weird, dont have my full station, so cant tell you anymore really! laugh Broken Hill got hammered the other nite hey??? Cape and LIs look good for here here on thurs, with TS predicted.
I had 14mm the other nite, when JJ got 12.8mm. (Rang dad got Im to check the comp at home laugh ) I heard that only 0.2mm was predicted or somefin?? anyways will let you know how it goes Later guys :cheers:
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/11/2005 11:36

Goodaye Silvercloud, great to see another west aussie on the forum! Donnybrook would be a lovely place to live, so lush and it has a sort of new zealand feel to it I think.

Good to hear from yah Tom from all the way over on the far side! smile If yah do get storms I hope you get some good shots to share at the meeting, which will be on the 20th by the way, you'll be back by then? Yeah apparently Broken hill got a nader, havent heard too much else though.
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/11/2005 11:51

Welcome to the forum Jules. It will be good to get some reports from down that way.. G'day Tom, good to hear from you too..massive rain (130mm)out at Parkes NSW last night. I was over there last Jan. and it was dry as..

Nice shower at my place last night..6mm in the gauge..

Cheers
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/11/2005 12:08

6mm! good to see your back at your rain hogging best Lert! :p smile I only got 2mm, what have you got for the month so far?
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/11/2005 14:35

Just to prove how cool it has been in Perth so far this November, we're averaging a min of 9.6C and Max of 20.7C, which is very low especially when you compare it to the other Capitals:

Adelaide: Min: 16 Max 26.6C
Brisbane: Min: 20 Max: 27.4C
Canberra: Min: 13.6 Max: 24.9C
Darwin: Min: 25.8 Max: 34C
Hobart: Min: 12.9 Max: 23.3C
Melbourne: Min: 16 Max: 27.8C!!
Sydney: Min: 19.4 Max: 24.4C

So you can see that we are the coldest capital so far by a long way, and were a whopping 7.1C behind Melbourne for the ave max to date! Very unusaul indeed.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/11/2005 14:42

Daily Rainfall for Tuesday, 08 November 2005
Rainfall recorded in Perth up to 9am today - We have received 867.8mm of rain so far this year (January to November).

South West of the State. The total capacity of our Perth and South West dams is 678 gigalitres. Currently the combined storage is 285.04 gigalitres, 42.0% of their total capacity.


looks like mor ebelow av temps to come!
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/11/2005 14:44

when will it warm up
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/11/2005 14:45

only the bom knows....
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/11/2005 16:03

Hey guys !

I got another 11mm over night ! turning out to be a quite wet November for me. My Nov total is now up to 25mm and we should get another sprinkle tonight...Temps are still well below average, Currently my temp at 1pm is on 18.4C! this is Nov ? lol

JJ smile
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/11/2005 00:18

You got 11mm - !!! I only got 1mm and I'm not that far from you.
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/11/2005 01:30

Yeah I was as surprised at you are Blue Skies. We had some rather heavy showers between 8-8:30pm Monday night here which were heavy enough to knock out the Satellite signal for 5 min or so..

I have 2 rain gauges here... one is the automatic rain gauge for the weather station and the other is a normal Manual gauge, both confirmed the 11mm.

JJ smile
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/11/2005 02:24

We got 7.4mm here in Donnybrook last night. A mostly fine day with a few spits here and there but its raining right at this moment. Yay, still loving this rain even if it makes time hard to find for gardening and alpaca wrangling. wink
:cheers: Jules
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/11/2005 11:20

Apparently according to thsi site we have an absence of the west coast trough and that is why the temps are cooler... don't worry i see a few warm temps this week smile

about 2mm last night!!
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/11/2005 11:32

Well I got a massive total of 1mm from last night, though I guess JJ and Lert got 10mm or something? :p smile Though I had my turn at rain hog last month so I'm happy to pass the mantle on I guess smile Its amazing how much rainfall can vary over such a small area as Perth, though even more amazing is how it seems to even itself out over a year.

For anyone on here thats interested, the next ASWA meeting will be on the 20th of November, same place same time, email me for details.

Hey Jules, is it still pretty green down there or is it starting to brown up for the summer?
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/11/2005 13:26

Only 1mm for me as well Tim, brings me up to 16mm for the month.. Not sure about the meeting, I'm tossing up between that and the Pearce airshow at the moment...
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/11/2005 13:32

what time is the pearce airshow? if yah bring yah binoculars yah might be able to see some of it from my place and combine the two! :p
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/11/2005 14:04

Hi Tim, yes it's still lovely and green down here. We're still getting some chilly nights, 7.9 last night, 5.3 the previous night.
Cheers, Jules
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/11/2005 14:19

Just out of curiousity I thought I would have a look to see if there is a weather station down your way Jules and there is, seems your climate isnt that different to ours, summer max and mins within a degree or so, though you do get a lot more rain than us. Surprising though considering that your a good 200km or so further south.

Looks as though your experiencing the same cool spell as us too, your current ave for November is Min:6.4C and Max 19.5C compared to the long term ave of Min:10.3C and max: 24.7C, rather cool indeed. smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/11/2005 15:52

finally some warm weather next week 28 degrees with 15 at night :cheers: smile smile smile smile smile smile smile
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/11/2005 17:05

Hey guys

Nah only got 1.4mm this time Tim :p which brings my monthly total to 26.4mm and my Year total so far to 860mm. Which is the highest rainfall I've had in the 3 full years I've been living here in Jane Brook.

Next week definately looks a lot warmer and back to average temps with a nice west coast trough forming from Tuesday onwards. I expect our first 30C sometime later next week, most likely on Friday.

JJ:)
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/11/2005 17:18

We're looking at getting down to 5 tonight, I love it. It should be nice and warm on saturday, though, for the Blues at Bridgetown festival. Good music, good drinking, good company and good weather, what more could a girl ask for (other than awesome storms)?
:cheers: Jules
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/11/2005 18:37

Interesting to see your on about the same as the metro area for rainfall JJ, I though you would be in front by 50-100mm or so, though I think the metro site did fairly well in May and June when more than half our rain fell this year.

Looking forward to next week, might even be able to take the doona off the bed smile
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/11/2005 19:56

Hey Ya'll. Going to the blue Mts tomorrow, Thurs, Looking great for some storms on the AVN! if you get the Op, check it out......LI's of -7, CAPE of 2200, and some awesome sheer:) Sorry I cant share it with you all.......will try to get some Video Timbo for the 20th meeting smile laugh

Oh yer, apparently got 4mm at my place in Floreat last nite :cheers: Not sure what Im up to for the month of the year.....will hopefully catch ya Tim laugh
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/11/2005 20:06

Well good luck Tom, it does definitely look like it will be a very good day for yah and I will be looking forward to that video at the meeting! smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/11/2005 12:55

according to the water corp dams still going up now 42.1 only slightly

now we have had 156mm this spring laugh smile

hopefully some 30 degrees day sto come
Posted by: percy_04

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/11/2005 12:59

looks good for some warm days ahead for you vinny - having a look at the forecast you could see some very warm temps by next week! looks like things could b comign up to average! laugh
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/11/2005 15:06

Yeah looks very nice indeed Percy, quite cold last night though, min 6.3C which is our 3rd night this month where we have got a near coldest night, the 2nd we had 5.8C which was the 3rd coldest on record, the 6th we had 6.2 which would make it the equal 4th coldest on record and now last nights 6.3C is the equal 6th coldest on record. So that means that of the 6 coldest min temps for Perth in November 3 were recorded this November!

On a completely different track, I had my second radio interview this morning with the North-West ABC, was fun, I was a lot less nervous than the first time I had a live radio interview and the presenter didnt ask me any difficult questions smile pity it was only broadcasted up there though cause I couldnt get a recording. Oh well maybe thats a good thing smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/11/2005 15:22

dam.. downgraded to 26 but that is still good looks like nights will be 17 woo hoo. nice day today very dry too 38 humidity
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/11/2005 19:02

Hi guys, still a bit chilly down here, we got to a tropical 3.8 last night LOL I ts warming up though, should be a nice weekend to be in Bridgetown for the Blues Festival. Expecting about 23 or so - beautiful. smile

:cheers: Jules
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/11/2005 00:17

I usually enjoy this kind of coolish in-between weather but now I'm actually starting to look forward to it finally warming up...if it ever will. brrrrr
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/11/2005 12:18

Yeah me too blue skies though I tend to get bored of the same old weather, it is very nice out in the spring sun when its only in low twenties and everything is nice and green from a nice and wet year.

The forecasts are still saying 26 for Monday - Wednesday next week, though I think Tuesday at least should get a bit warmer than that and should see our first 30+ day or come close to it anyway.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/11/2005 15:16

Well looks like the BoM had the same train of thought smile

Quote:

Tuesday : Fine and hot. Min: 13 Max: 32
and about time too! smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/11/2005 15:24

yay smile smile

nice and coool at night too 13 ...
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/11/2005 16:01

Great to see the warm weather has finally got here.
Currently 28.5C here in Jane Brook with a very light W/NW'ly.

Looking forward to the warm/hot weather next week laugh

JJ smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/11/2005 12:11

Looks like we will hit the big 32 tomorrow looks like the rainy season has well and truly left us for a while.

nice and warm this morning and clear blue skies. hope this is n ot runied by the calm burning this summer
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/11/2005 13:16

Too late Vinny, they've already started burning off down here. We're aiming for 29 on Tuesday, a bit cooler than Perth but not much. I'm not ready for heat just yet, I need to be eased into it a bit more slowly laugh .

:cheers: Jules
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/11/2005 13:19

LOL Jules...how much slower do you want to be eased in ? we are less than 3 weeks from summer and havn't had 30C in Perth yet wink . But that will change tomorrow ! Bring on the hot days and Balmy nights I say ! laugh

JJ smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/11/2005 13:45

yeah, I'm with you JJ, heat=summer storms (well somerwhere anyway smile ) This morning was the first morning that there has been a nice fresh warm easterly in the morning too, really starting to feel like summer! smile

Was out in the forest most of the weekend watching the rally, was quite warm out there specially saturday, was getting close to 30, took my thermometer as one does! laugh smile
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/11/2005 13:46

I'm a bit of a winter girl, JJ, my partner calls me an eskimo cos I like the cold weather, tho I enjoyed the warm weather on the weekend while partying in Bridgetown at the Blues festival. cool

:cheers: Jules
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/11/2005 14:05

Yeah I do prefer winter also Jules, but I also get sick of the same weather for ages, plus I like a good summer thunderstorm. Though I know come Feb I will be looking forward to winter. smile

The weekend is looking rather warm too, should be a great day on Sunday for the meeting, all we need now is the trough to fire up in the arvo so we can all go chasing! smile
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/11/2005 14:49

I don't mind the summers so much down south as our nights are usually cooler which means I can get some sleep at least.

Some summer storms would be awesome, I love that anticipation when you can feel a big one brewing.

:cheers: Jules
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/11/2005 18:00

wonder when we will get a storm in perth?
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/11/2005 20:55

well no storms but nice and warm 24 degrees now at 6pm smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/11/2005 02:33

gee thought it was warm, whether this is global warming or not.... 19 degrees at 11.32pm very warm tonight! smile eek
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/11/2005 12:44

Warming up very quickly today, almost reached the 30 degree mark and its not even 10am yet.
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/11/2005 13:36

Yeah Tim, cracked 30 just around 10am..It's the first 30 in Perth since 7th April I understand..
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/11/2005 14:36

Its about 28 at my house in Donnybrook at 11.30am.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/11/2005 15:18

33.6C for us now, looks as though the seabreeze is just about to hit too so shouldnt go too much higher. You can almost smell the sand and sunscreen in the air on days like today! smile
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/11/2005 15:31

What I like about the first hot day is that the house stays nice and cool.(if you shut up).. only 23 in here ATM.. smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/11/2005 17:13

Yeah, I am still in winter mode though, In the mornings I open all the curtains to let the sun and warmth in, though wont be doing that anymore!

34.7C the official max, which is the warmest since April the 6th, still looking good for some warmth on the weekend, though still no sign of any storms for a while yet.
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/11/2005 20:36

We got to 32 here today.

:cheers: Jules
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/11/2005 20:49

Hey there all............back from the east, and loving this warmth!! 32.6 at 11.30 today for me. Warmed up VERY quickly.
Didnt really get much usefull footage in NSW, as it kinda passed to the south, tho think I got on camera the bolt that struck the hand rail at the Three Sisters, where some guy was holding on to it at the time. eek I was coming back down the hills to Sydney, when I saw i bit of activity back up towards Katoomba. So there is somefin on camera........also my girlfriend got kinda pissed that we had to stop all the time to look at storms!! laugh

On the AVN it looks like there cold be somefin happening tomorrow just east of Cunderdin?? Good sheer, tho, LI's of -3/-4. We keep an eye on it, as Im still on holiday! smile May see you on Sunday guys :cheers:
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/11/2005 00:39

Is is raining off the coast right now or is that false echoes? Looks awfully strong for false echoes.
34 here today, summer has finally arrived!
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/11/2005 11:16

nice and cooler today with 26 ... some of the plants in the garden wilted under yesterdays heat.

nice having dry heat in perth beats having 80 percent humidity ant night with 25 although i vaguely remember a night last year in november when it was 24.

looks like 50 50 chance of everything for australia according to the bom. ie we may or may not get our rainfall for summer. smile

still quite warm at night too .
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/11/2005 13:10

Hmmm I have seen the radar... Doubt its showers, bom have no mention of it... looking out my window its all blue with the some haze blocking the sky in places... I think (correct me if I am wrong) its smoke haze we can see on the radar????

Is CALM Buring off cause there is heaps of smoke arround.

Just a thought
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/11/2005 13:40

Yep, calm are at it again. Down here thay're about 3 weeks behind in their burnoff schedule so I reckon there might be quite a few false echos over the next several weeks while they catch up.

:cheers: Jules
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/11/2005 14:15

typical!
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/11/2005 17:38

Some activity in the area Tom was talking about, out near cundernin (sp?) Not looking too impressive though its activity none the less. Too far for me to be interested in chasing though.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/11/2005 13:09

Newdegate got 7mm or so from a storm yesterday round 4pm. Wasnt really in any radar viewing area tho! Just some showers, and weak storms.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/11/2005 14:07

wonder when we will see some showers again?
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/11/2005 15:04

Not for a while i don't think.
Seems a moderate chance of our first 100 degree day for the year come Tuesday, personally i think it looks like a 36-37c day. It looks like a rather deep trough which will keep the E/Ne'y wind rather fresh until mid-morning
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/11/2005 15:39

Yeah Kirk, looks as though we are definitely in a summer pattern now and will be for some time. I worked out we will need to average 29.3C over the next 2 weeks of this month to come out average, not likely but it does look like it might be closer than we would have thought a week or so ago.

I tell you what, I am not liking these 'fresh' seabreezes, it makes riding home quite a challenge!
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/11/2005 16:05

Thats because your about 650cc short of a decent bike Tim smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/11/2005 17:05

lol, true mate, though my bike cost me a couple of hundred bucks and costs nothing to run, would that be the same for your 'pushbike with grunt'? :p smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/11/2005 18:11

Just looking at the set up for Saturday, I dont really see why they are forecasting 31C It looks as though the potential is there for a lot hotter. The only thing I can think of is they are predicting the trough to move in early, but that doesnt look like the case. I think Saturday will be 34-35C.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/11/2005 18:46

Yer i don't think the trough will move in early, I did notice on the models they are predicting some rain in in-land parts of Australia, especially on the WA/SA border. That might help keep the winds rather cool.
Posted by: Twisted Kris

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/11/2005 16:49

G'Day guy's , yep another newbie to the boards.... laugh

Agree with the trough comments. Can't see why they revised it down to 31?? I figured they were right fisrt run with mid to high 30's.

Cheers

Kris
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/11/2005 17:48

We're looking at 27 for the next few days then maybe into the low 30s by Tuesday and no rain in sight.

Cheers, Jules
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/11/2005 18:39

Welcome Kris great to have another new wozzie on the forum! smile Yeah, not sure about the forecast for tommorow, doesnt look like a 31C day setup, but I guess we will just wait and see. Should be an alright day for the meeting on Sunday though would have preferred some nice late afternoon Tstorms! smile
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/11/2005 13:18

Well now the CM's are putting the trough inland on Tuesday with some thundery shower activity East of about Northam. So it should heat up pretty quickly on Tuesday and get to 31-32c by 10-11am, then the seabreze will arrive.

What was the date of Perths last T'storm??
Posted by: Twisted Kris

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/11/2005 17:39

Quote:
Originally posted by Kirk:
Well now the CM's are putting the trough inland on Tuesday with some thundery shower activity East of about Northam. So it should heat up pretty quickly on Tuesday and get to 31-32c by 10-11am, then the seabreze will arrive.

What was the date of Perths last T'storm??
Too long ago to remember! It has been far too 'nice' for far too long!

Twisted
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/11/2005 00:46

perth has had only two major storms this year one was on may the 22nd (roughly?) i think and the other a week or two later later it had lightning and thunder and everyone thought it was going to be a another tornado but it was just a waterspout off cottosloe
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/11/2005 00:53

looks like we just made it to thirty today took a while and didn't seem too hot. smile

Stuck in a summer pattern, i sure agree. Hopefully it won't turn into an elnino pattern.

there is no significant rain forecast this week but i see the radars are picking up something north of perth i wouod assume it is burning off but it may be rain though doubt it? confused smile
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/11/2005 23:59

This is the weather i've been waiting for, the current forecast couldn't be more perfect. laugh
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/11/2005 01:07

it is nice but a drop of wet stuff wouldn't go astray this summer
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/11/2005 17:00

Well the Magic 'Unsettled' words are back again for next Monday
Posted by: Twisted Kris

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/11/2005 23:07

Quote:
Originally posted by Kirk:
Well the Magic 'Unsettled' words are back again for next Monday
HEHE!! Unsettled indeed, I had those very words in quotation marks on the back of my old LanRover chase car! - Everyone must have thought it was a reference to my state of mind!
Especially with all the gizmo's gadgets and natennae hanging off the damned thing.

Can't wait for a crack'o'thunder!.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/11/2005 00:29

Ha ha I heard that too Kirk laugh on the 7 day GFS, there seems to be a trough pushing down the coast turning into a low??? confused Not sure exactly. worth a look. smile No doubt it will change! hope not tho.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/11/2005 00:35

cool.... gotta love this weather. would love some thunder and then two days later some warm weather again. smile

thought it was warm tonight about 22 degrees at jandakot airport and 23 in the city.... almost 10 degrees above the night time average eek

a low??? sounds interesting..... i kinda wish we could get what we are having now mixed in with warm mixed in with thunder or light showers smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/11/2005 00:38

cool.... gotta love this weather. would love some thunder and then two days later some warm weather again. smile

thought it was warm tonight about 22 degrees at jandakot airport and 23 in the city.... almost 10 degrees above the night time average eek

a low??? sounds interesting..... i kinda wish we could get what we are having now mixed in with warm mixed in with thunder or light showers smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/11/2005 00:40

whoops double posted hopefully a good ole moderator will remove this i hope!
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/11/2005 13:44

Quote:
Originally posted by vinny:
cool.... gotta love this weather. would love some thunder and then two days later some warm weather again. smile

thought it was warm tonight about 22 degrees at jandakot airport and 23 in the city.... almost 10 degrees above the night time average eek

a low??? sounds interesting..... i kinda wish we could get what we are having now mixed in with warm mixed in with thunder or light showers smile
You might want to move to Brisbane then laugh
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/11/2005 14:29

Well the unsettled word has dissapeared, but replaced with a much better word:

Quote:

Warm to hot conditions are expected next weekend with thunderstorms developing
during Sunday.
smile

And Tom, very nice of the BoM to organize them for the only day you can chase hey! smile

They are going for 33C again tomorrow now, the second half of November is definitely making up for the first half! smile might even make the average!
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/11/2005 14:35

I think maybe BoM are overplaying it this far out, they should know how these things change each model update. I think they should have stuck with the "unsettled" or "thundery shower" possible outlook
Posted by: Twisted Kris

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/11/2005 14:40

Quote:
Originally posted by Kirk:
I think maybe BoM are overplaying it this far out, they should know how these things change each model update. I think they should have stuck with the "unsettled" or "thundery shower" possible outlook
Well here's to hoping for a cracker of a storm.
Tuba and all if we're lucky, (Of course that would be with zero injury or damage to property)

laugh
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/11/2005 15:43

"They are going for 33C again tomorrow now, the second half of November is definitely making up for the first half! might even make the average! "

do you mean the average temperature or the average rainfall i think temp wise we will but not sure about rainwise. confused

nah don't want to move to brisbane to humid and perth has good fake stroms where they call them a thundery shower and nothing to a tiny bit comes out, i prefer that. laugh

yes it sure is warm. it is 29 already and only quarter to 1 smile
Posted by: Thunder head

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/11/2005 15:53

hot weather in Perth directly correlates with &%$$@##!!!*& weather here. On the weekend, our weather will be trash while you guys get mid 30's. I envy your climate and almost all other climates in Australia.

our great start to Nov has given way to &%$# with a whole week of below average temps day and night until now mad mad while in contrast your crap start to Nov has given way to heat.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/11/2005 17:53

i only found out now it was mid thirties and a thunderstorm hey we may even be hotter than brisbane.

its great we get our rain in middle of year as maeans all days fine in summer.

glad i am not in melbourne thunderhead!! osunds like some shocking weather although... perth is getting warmer than average temps of 26 with 14 night
Posted by: Thunder head

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/11/2005 18:09

it's disturbing man. the problem with Melbourne's climate is that there is NO SUMMER! Way too many cold fronts destroy Melbourne year round. They don't move south like they are supposed to in summer.

just read the Vic threads on this forum and you'll find forecasts such as "entire next week will have SE/S/SW winds and cool 20c temps with rain.", "the east coast low will move west to form a crap-around low with rainband over central Vic", "trend for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday: showers, cool" mad mad mad

I see that Perth will have a disgraceful SW/S flow mid next week aswell. GFS +144, 168 shows a worst case scenario.
Posted by: David

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/11/2005 18:11

Quote:
Originally posted by vinny:

glad i am not in melbourne thunderhead!! osunds like some shocking weather although... perth is getting warmer than average temps of 26 with 14 night
Shocking that is news to me, tempertures have been above avarage we have had a couple of decent storms above normal rain and some nice warm sunny days. laugh

Perth looks to be in for a nice spell of weather warm tempertures and storms.

David laugh
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/11/2005 08:34

Hi all smile

I'm really liking our latest forecast for the weekend ! hot with thunderstorms mmmmmmmm just as long as it happens !

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR PERTH FOR:
Friday : Fine. Fresh easterlies. Min: 13 Max: 25
Saturday : Windy. Thunderstorm developing. Min: 15 Max: 32
Sunday : Thunderstorm. Humid change later. Min: 17 Max: 35

JJ smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/11/2005 11:32

Yes looking very nice indeed, and perfect timing too, looks like all the action will be over the weekend! smile You able to chase JJ? anyone else up for a good chase?
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/11/2005 12:34

yay it is now gonna happen... although i hope it does.

we still need above avergae temps to make the average for this month temp wise don't we tim?

how much do you think we will get out of it if we do get something?
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/11/2005 12:37

according to a website i found....

http://abc.net.au/perth/weather/

i am not sure if this is accurate

it says rain probability is 20 percent <1mm and sunday with the same amount but with a 40 percent chance
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/11/2005 12:39

Should be able to Chase Tim smile

If they are forecastng dry thunderstorms...these are the best type for photographing lightning laugh

Bring it on !

JJ smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/11/2005 12:48

yeah i like lightning
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/11/2005 13:01

beauty JJ! Greg isnt working Saturday, so he can chase too. smile

Anyone else up for it?
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/11/2005 13:09

Vinny: We only need to average about 27 for the rest of the month to better the average max of 26C, currently on 24.7C.

Perth probably wont get that much out of the system I think, 2mm or so.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/11/2005 13:16

i still remember march a storm came and dumped 30mm in perth march 2005 i think?!
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/11/2005 13:23

Yes I will be heading out too, I am leaning towards a chase down towards Wagin/Collie area, or I might be going with JJ to save on the fuel.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/11/2005 14:04

Cool Kirk! Where abouts you thinking of going JJ? I am thinking east and north of Perth would be best, might head to Wongan Hills Tooday around there somewhere.
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/11/2005 14:22

It's hard to say atm but would probly start at the lookout near Northam and go from there, see where the storms develop....see what happens smile
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/11/2005 14:59

Well the models are now thinking Perth and south for Sunday, while just east of Lancelin would be a good sport for Saturday. It really depends on how quickly this low moves south.
I think we may see some action develope North of Perth Around 11am, but really it's still very hard to predict because the models aren;t taking a clear line on where the best action will be.

I do think Sunday is better to head South, South- East.... Maybe start at Brookton
Posted by: wastorms

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/11/2005 16:01

Hey JJ, Tim, everyone else,
Looks promising for Saturday atm, very rough summary with 500 temps around -12C, winds up to ~ 50 knts and decreasing/dropping RH from around 30-40% closer to 20% or less.

So it looks as if it's A Chasing we Will GO.... smile smile

Cheers,

Wastorms.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/11/2005 17:18

Well i am doing as much reading up on T'storms, air masses etc since most of it has left my head from our lack of storms. The problem i have found is many sites cover the basics which i will always know, it's the slightly more advanced stuff which i need to brush up on. Anyone know any sites?
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/11/2005 18:27

Go here. Kirk
http://www.downunderchase.com/storminfo/stormguide/

May help. You prolly already know this! smile
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/11/2005 02:43

Thanks for the site smile
A lot of information there, i learned some new stuff about reading Skew Ts which is good.

Now onto the weekend.
Our biggest problem right now is surface moisture I think. LI's and Cape are adequate and sheer looks very good/excellent for late sat/early Sunday. Instability is acceptable but not great. I would like to see -12 but i will take 0 to -2. Seems late Saturday we will have directional sheer as well as the lower levels go from light to moderate E'ly up to 55 knot Nw'lies around 400mb.

DP's and humdity look to be a real killer, those Ne'ly winds as usual look like bringing DP's of less than 8, but in many ways that is to be expected. A very Weak Cap which will be broken pretty earlier i think, going for 15c 850 temps and a max of 35c for Sunday. So no chance of a late afternoon intense storm.

Both GASP & GFS have jumped off ship really for the weekend, hopefully they will come back on board.

One thing i have noticed is the models are putting the middle/ upper level low in different spots. Some are having it moving well north of Perth and others have it around the Capes.

Still, most of the ingredients for a solid storm or two are there, which is why I don't think the BoM are using 'thundery shower' in the forecast
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/11/2005 12:27

nice cooler day today

drizzle next week?

looks like temps may be getting back to average next week
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/11/2005 15:01

Gotta love the latest forecast!!! laugh

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

FORECAST FOR THE PERTH METROPOLITAN AREA
Issued at 11:24am WST on Friday the 25th of November 2005 for the remainder of
today and Saturday

FORECAST:
Fine today. Becoming warmer tomorrow with a few showers and thunderstorms
developing in the afternoon. SE winds and fresh S'ly coastal seabreezes today,
shifting fresh to strong and gusty E'ly overnight.


TODAY'S TEMPERATURE: Maximum: 27
TOMORROW'S TEMPERATURES: Minimum: 15 Maximum: 30
TODAY'S UV INDEX: 11 [EXTREME]

TODAY'S FIRE DANGER: Coastal Plain: HIGH
Hills: HIGH

The overnight minimum was 13.3 at 0515 hours

The remainder of today will be fine and sunny with SE winds tending fresh S'ly
in coastal parts in the afternoon.
Warm to hot conditions are expected to over the weekend with possible
thunderstorms.
A humid change should develop late on Sunday.
Monday and Tuesday should be fine and cooler.


MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR PERTH FOR:
Sunday : Thunderstorm risk. Humid later. Min: 17 Max: 34
Monday : Fine, partly cloudy, humid. Min: 17 Max: 26
Tuesday : Fine. Min: 15 Max: 24

TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY and FRIDAY:
Fine. Maximum temperatures: Low 20s rising to high 20s.

Weekend looking good !!!

JJ smile
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/11/2005 16:08

Sounds even better for the Wheat belt on Sunday!

SUNDAY:
Warm to hot and windy with isolated showers and thunderstorms, clearing from the
Central West district and nearby areas with a humid change. Local heavy falls
possible in the wheat belt from thunderstorms.

JJ smile
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/11/2005 17:58

LI's are forecast to be around -4 to -6 very close to Perth overnight Saturday eek . CAPE looks to be around 1000. Pretty rare to see LI's that good for perth.
Sheer However looks to be average to poor for most of Saturday and overnight then becoming pretty good on Sunday, at it's best when the trough movies inland. Saturday morning seems to be very stable, but there might be some very weak and breif showers develope North of Perth late morning.

Moisture in Perth should increase late Saturday, maybe even see DP's in double figures.


GFS has an interesting outlook for the wheatbelt which is what the BoM must be going for, indeed some severe storms probable around Merriden
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/11/2005 18:01

Looking at the sat pics some very large storms are developing way NW of Perth where the middle & upper level low is
Posted by: radar

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/11/2005 19:50

Looking at the models the best of the instability should be over Perth Saturday night after midnight. ANy time between midnight Saturday night and sunrise on SUnday morning looks good to me. If the model predictions are right no drive will be required either!
Posted by: Fastlane

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/11/2005 22:15

Fire dangers have also jumped quite a bit over previous days. Index has gone from about 8 on Perth Metro Plains today to 30 for tomorrow (which in other states, is a Very High Fire Danger Day).

Lets just hope theres some rain with any lightning!
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 00:42

looking at the charts still makes me think perth metro and suburbs will only get showers with not much storm activity. although, the weather is unpredictable. smile
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 01:13

What makes you say that mate?, to me most indactors point to a good storm at some stage during the next 40 hours. Good Li's and CAPE, acceptable Sheer improving later in the period.

Our major problem is moisture, it's very dry right now. DP's around 1, hpoefully this will improve though otherwise it's a lost cause anyway you look at it
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 01:24

i know what you mean..... it is only 20 ish humidity wise

i was basing it on the synopic maps off this site i am not that good meteorologically
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 02:01

Quote:
i know what you mean..... it is only 20 ish humidity wise
and given Perth's history of let downs.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 11:32

I would say there is a 30% chance of a thunderstorm directly hitting Perth today, but I reckon there is about a 85% chance of one within 100km of Perth.
Anything within 100km and at night will give a light show.

There is a moderate to strong cap according to the BoM soundings right now, so hopefully nothing will develope early, and there latest forecast mentions late afternoon anyway.

Moisture at the surface is still very dry, and its the same story at about 850, not much moisture so no chance of mixing.

Middle level & low level sheer right now is excellent.

LI's at the moment are around 5, this should come down to the negatives within 12 hours. We would expect instability to be poor right now anyway.

So most of the ingredients are there, it's a matter of waiting and watching now.
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 13:47

With all this cloud and the strong easterlies around I think the chances of us hitting 30c today are diminishing. Given the moisture in the wheatbelt, the easterlies must be giving us an 'airconditioning' effect hence the current temps.
Isolated thundery showers are evident inland from Geraldton, and there is a line of storms to our NW which is also starting to show up on the Gero radar. As I said though, I think the lack of heating may stop anything significant eventuating.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 14:21

Yes heat is lacking and it isn't heading upwards at all, so that is a real concern. Not only will it not help convection of course but we need some heat to break through this Cap.I was very optimistic a couple of hours ago but we do need it to heat up
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 14:30

mmmmm the BOM are now saying a max of 29 and seem less optimistic about storm activity. They are just chucking it in the forecast in case something comes off I reckon.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 15:09

It's just a matter of waiting and watching the sky now, and every 40 mins or so look at the obs and radar
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 15:13

Yeah, I wish this cloud would clear so we could get some decent heating! though there is some development to the north-east that is looking promising.
Posted by: Fastlane

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 15:24

10 news weather last night indicated that the max for the day wouldn't be reached until about 4pm...
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 15:24

Yes a small cell has just popped up north of Lancelin, amoungst some other cells to its East. Also some activity well to our West. Maybe, maybe...
p.s at what point should this go into Breaking Weather?
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 15:26

It should already I think
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 15:31

Yer it will certainly heat well into the afternoon, no seabreeze at all. We should at least get to 26c..... but hopefully get close to 30c
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 15:40

I've just been outside and the sun has broken through the cloudes up here atm. It certainly feels warmer. I am more optimistic now but won't get my hopes up.
Posted by: Fastlane

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 15:48

Listening in, the guys in the CALM fire towers have heard some crackling on their radios the past 10mins or so...

Not much southerly influence on the wind for the first time in a while up this way.. is a shame in some respects - means we have to put up with the wonderful smell of smoke. If only it was a North Easterly..
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 16:37

Hi all

These E'lys have been INSANE and have caused widespread blackouts in the Hills areas. My suburb Jane Brook has been with out Power since 7:30am and isn't expected to be restored till 3:30pm at the earliest! ( which was supposed to be 10am when I first rang up this morning ). I just drove down to my parents place in Riverton, seems like the only power problems are in the hills and some eastern suburbs. The main cause of the black outs seem to be trees falling on lines and causing pole top fires, not surprising with these winds gusting to 46knots at Pearce RAAF and 40knot gust at my weather station before I lost power.

I still have hope we will get a storm today but I think it will be late like well after sunset. If we do get one I think it will be after 10pm around 11pm ish.

JJ smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 16:41

welll the sun seems to be poking itself through the clouds....

about 25 degrees now i think

what winds do we need in perth to get a storm?
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 16:42

FORECAST FOR THE PERTH METROPOLITAN AREA
Issued at 11:20am WST on Saturday the 26th of November 2005 for the remainder of
today and Sunday

FORECAST:
Fine this afternoon. The chance of a thundery shower or two tonight and at first
tomorrow, then fine, with a humid change tomorrow afternoon. Fresh and gusty
E'ly winds, moderating and shifting W/NW tomorrow afternoon.


TODAY'S TEMPERATURE: Maximum: 29
TOMORROW'S TEMPERATURES: Minimum: 16 Maximum: 31
TODAY'S UV INDEX: 11 [EXTREME]

TODAY'S FIRE DANGER: Coastal Plain: HIGH
Hills: HIGH

The overnight minimum was 13.1 at 0514 hours

Fine, but cloudy today. The chance of a thunderstorm tonight and at first
tomorrow, but then fine, with a humid change during the afternoon.
Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday should be fine and mild.


MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR PERTH FOR:
Monday : Fine, partly cloudy, humid. Min: 17 Max: 26
Tuesday : Fine. Min: 15 Max: 24
Wednesday : Fine. Min: 11 Max: 23

TREND FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY and SATURDAY:
Fine. Maximum temperatures: Mid 20s rising to high 20s.


only a "chance"

i wasn't aware of the winds being so strong in the hills
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 16:49

As a rule of thumb during Summer anything from the South to the N/NW very rarely gives storms as this often means we are in a seabreeze or the trough is inland.

Middle level disturbances can still cause weak showers & storms when the seabreeze comes in, but we can rule out the seabreeze for today
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 16:55

serious? no seabreeze does that mean we won't cool down
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 16:59

Cool down?
We want it to heat up!!
The cloud cover and strenght of the E'ly is preventing the temps from rising.

For around the next 24 hours we will be in NE & SE winds, once the low in the trough movies south of Perth we will get a seabreeze that wraps around the low
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 17:01

but we won't get much showers or storms in perth right?
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 17:14

Just rang Western Power again now they think power won't be restored in my suburb until 5:30pm at the earliest smirk. Some other hills suburbs like Rolleystone arn't expected to be restored until 6:30am tomorrow ! frown

These winds are sure casuing some major problems...I'm also surprised there wasn't a Gale warning issued ? considering how strong these winds have been !
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 17:16

geee glad i am not living in the hills it isn't that windy here
Posted by: Twisted Kris

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 17:57

G'Day Vinny,

Where abouts are you in the SS??, I am at Beeliar and am curently getting ESE at 38 kmh (Gust that was - 53kmh)
temp currently 26.7 - RH 26 DP 5.7

temp has increased quite markedly last 30 mins

Cheers
Kris
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 18:26

i am in success believe it or not!

i just didn't want that to be displayed to the whole of australia.

temps must be similar to here. beeliar is elevated more than success which is lower
Posted by: Twisted Kris

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 18:43

Now had a 2.7 degree rise in 45 minutes
hope it kicks up further.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 18:57

It's going to be touch and go whether or not we get to 29c, I think it's too late in the day to get there
Posted by: Twisted Kris

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 19:30

Unfortunately yes - the bums dropped out of it!
now only recording 24.6 and 8/8 coverage now also.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 20:04

Walking around outside it all feels very stable to me, very dry and rather mild. I did notice some small, weak Cu on the far northern horizon though.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 21:13

There some storms about 150kms south/west of perth by the looks of it, getting a few spherics on the radio from them I presume. I still think we are in for a chance, some development to the north of us at the moment which has some promise.

Tommorow still looks good for a chase out to the weatbelt though.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 21:52

We have got some storms developing to the north now, exploding to the north laugh
Posted by: Fastlane

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 21:57

hah! I mentioned something about what was developing up near Lancelin to JJ.. he told me to keep dreaming!

Good to see.. lets hope it keeps building smile
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 22:20

Getting regular stikes on my lightning detector!

10-30kms

Lets get wet:)
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 22:26

Can see some nice lightning bolts now. laugh
Posted by: Fastlane

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 22:36

Its going crazy north of here near Yanchep. To the North West, North and North East all at the same time...

Bit of a novelty smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 23:19

flash a second here and heavy rain, getting some awesome shots smile
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 23:28

What an awesome lightning show that was, seems to be clearing now, hopefully more will develop.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/11/2005 23:57

A couple of shots of tonights storms:

I called this one fingers smile



and this one question mark smile

Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/11/2005 00:15

Awesome pics Tim, looks like where about to get hit again, storms exploding on the radar. laugh
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/11/2005 01:25

This just issued by the BOM.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for Large Hail and Damaging Winds
For people in the south of the Lower West district including Mandurah.
Issued at 10:20 pm on Saturday 26 November 2005

People are advised that there is a risk of severe thunderstorms during the next
few hours.

A severe thunderstorm with large hail was observed near Rockingham at 10pm this
evening.
Radar shows the thunderstorm moving southwards and it should pass through
Mandurah during the next 1 to 2 hours.

There is a risk of large hail and strong winds that could result in damage to
property.
The FESA - State Emergency Service advises that people should be aware of
thunderstorms. As storms approach secure loose items and move vehicles under
cover. If lightning accompanies the storm disconnect non essential electrical
appliances and avoid using the phone. Stay indoors until the storms have passed.
If you are caught outside seek shelter away from trees and metal structures.
Driving conditions will be hazardous.

The next warning will be issued by 1am Sunday.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/11/2005 01:43

I live in Golden Bay 15mins south of Rockingham, 10mins north of Mandurah.

We got about 22mm of rain in 15mins.

Something I have never seen in my life...
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/11/2005 11:54

recorded 1.2mm of rain a bit disappointing. a lot of lightning and thunder last night.

no forecast of storms today but it looks like we will be warmer with those north easterly winds.

Wednesday : Fine. Min: 11 Max: 23

gee at least it is only one day on wednesday like this
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/11/2005 12:18

Well that was a great night of storms! anyone get any hail? Seems they fired up rainfall wise big time after they passed into the southern suburbs, typical! 22mm in 15mins is crazy Egan! Some other good falls around the place include Bridgetowm with 42.6mm, collie 29.8mm, 27.8mm at Kattaning, 22.4 at Manjimup.

Doesnt look too promising around here for today, though with some decent heating they could fire up again east of Northam.
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/11/2005 17:32

Hi guys, what an awesome display last night down here in the south west. I was at a party in Capel, the lightning started about 6.30pm and just got better. The rain and hail sent most people inside but a few storm lovers stayed out under the eaves of the shed watching the skyshow. A bunch of people complained that the party was ruined (the rain even put out the fire in the 44 gallon drum, LOL) but what a way to spend a party. We got 18mm of rain in Donnybrook, I don't know what Capel got though I'd guess at least 20 to 25.

Cheers, Jules
Posted by: Twisted Kris

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/11/2005 19:15

Quote:
Originally posted by Tim S:
Well that was a great night of storms! anyone get any hail?
Hi Tim,

Janine and I headedout towards Collie, but ended up tracking in towards Merredin, we had a cell pass us slightly to the South and back tracked, ran into a short blast of hail for around 30 seconds, nothing damaging, but we were fairly close to the guts of it on the outflow side.
Scored some awesome lightning driving back past Boddington way, obscured by the trees for the main but still had a few close enough to 'smell' em. In hindsight, would have been better staying put, but I figured around Collie and Brunswick area might cop a bit, just too slow to get there!
Cheers

Kris
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/11/2005 19:56

I was intrigued by the development last night...the storm cell that hit us was the first rain of the night at 10:30pm we missed all the earlier stuff.

What had happened was it had developed over Rottnest and was tracking slightly to the southeast away from land...once it got about 50kms away from the coast in Cockburn sound, the storm doubled in size within 10 mins and was looking to hit Golden Bay/Rockingham and Mandurah with ferocity. Which before it was looking like it was going to miss.

Not only did the storm double in size the cell doubled in intensity as well, seeing red colour - which being a regular radar viewer is hardly ever observed.

Intense downfall lasted for 20 mins...the noise was absolutely amazing, I am sure it hailed here.

I was just amazed at how quickly the storm had doubled in size and actually hit the Rockingham area first...is that something to do with the way Cockburn Sound is shaped, that they got so much heat energy as it approached, from the east and south on the land?

Anyways was a fantastic experience just an intense amount of rainfall for 15 mins.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/11/2005 16:43

below average temps today and tomorrow but warming up soon.

no more forecasts of stroms but maybe a late shower this week?
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/11/2005 17:36

Hey Kris, I thought of you guys when I saw the STW released after a severe storm went through Rockingham, you guys gone chasing and the best storm pratically arrives at your homes! Typical hey! glad to hear yah didnt miss out though. smile
Posted by: Twisted Kris

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/11/2005 20:12

We were back in the bay for the best of it thankfully. Quite funny, when we set off we had two or three cells we were contemplating, the local didn't look too promising, although was growing fairly quickly, but the 2 out to the east looked much bigger and far stronger. Of course as is Murphy's law, we dropped right between the 2 out to the east, caught the Northernmost one of the two around Boddington and got some very impressive lightning, started to run out of time, and caught the Rockingham action on the way back. I got some good footage of a couple of big strikes in Warnbro.
Cheers
Kris
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/11/2005 12:19

I have been e-mailed a good PPS file with several shots of the lightning from the weekend... I have forwarded it to Tim S... anyhow i dont know who took them or who owns the copyright... I notice its doing the rounds smile

I dont know how to add them to the forum.

Thanks
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/11/2005 14:46

Cloudy again today. Can anyone explain why perth will have below average temps this week apart from 2 days. Is it due to the indian ocean being cooler? Or is it normal to have 12/24 in december?
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/11/2005 15:05

another below average temp day looks like after the next couple of days low twenties???

i wonder where the summer has gone???
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/11/2005 17:17

Quote:
Originally posted by vinny:
Cloudy again today. Can anyone explain why perth will have below average temps this week apart from 2 days. Is it due to the indian ocean being cooler? Or is it normal to have 12/24 in december?
We are becoming Melbourne :rolleyes:

Our weather sucks at the moment!
Posted by: Thunder head

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/12/2005 08:18

the reason for the terrible weather in Perth at the moment is the constant assault of sour weterly winds attacking the city. Look at GFS, synoptic charts and immediately you'll see the answer.....and a rise in blood pressure!
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/12/2005 17:54

no west coast troughs only 22!!!! cmon it is summer and this weather is not even long and hot like it should be. i predict we are in for a cooler summer for some reason.

where has all our warm weather gone????
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/12/2005 18:10

We're on 21 here in Donnybrook at the mo but it was only 6.7 last night, we're still getting the cold nights but the days are very changeable.

:cheers: Jules
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/12/2005 18:17

Cool November in Perth
Rainfall below average: The city received 13.4 millimetres of rainfall over 7 days in November compared with the average of 22 mm over 6 days. This was the driest November since the 4.4 mm in 1999. Historically, November rainfall has ranged from 0.0 mm in 1891 to 73.2 mm in 1984. Last November Perth recorded 32.8 mm on 11 days. Total rainfall for January to November this year was 869.8 mm compared with the average of 846 mm, making it the wettest January to November period since 1995, then 901.8 mm. The wettest January to November total on record was 1308.7 mm in 1945.

Mean daily maximum temperature well below average: Perth's mean daily maximum temperature in November was 24.9 degrees Celsius, compared with the average of 26.2 degrees. This was the lowest mean daily maximum temperature recorded since the 24.4 degrees in 1995. Daily maxima ranged from a mild 19.0 degrees on the 1st to a hot 34.7 degrees on the 15th.

Mean daily minimum temperature well below average: Perth's mean daily minimum temperature in November was 12.6 degrees Celsius, which is the lowest mean daily minimum temperature in the 13 years of November records at the official Perth metropolitan observation site at Mt Lawley. The previous lowest of 13.2 degrees occurred in 1997 whilst the average minimum temperature is 14.2 degrees. Minima ranged from a cool 5.8 degrees on the 2nd to a mild 17.7 degrees on the 28th.

Mean daily sunshine hours above average: Perth's mean daily sunshine hours in November was 11.3, compared with the average of 10.6 hours.

Climate of Perth in December
December is typically a dry month and days are generally sunny and warm to hot. On most afternoons a sea breeze moderates the temperature. December is Perth's sunniest month on average with 11.8 hours of sunshine per day.

Very hot days: Perth can expect one day in December when the maximum temperature is 40 degrees Celsius or higher. The highest number of such December days was two in 1968, 1974, 1977, 1997 and 2002. The last time Perth recorded a very hot day in December was on 14 December 2004 with 41.5 degrees.

Hot days: On average, Perth can expect eight days in December when the maximum temperature is 32 degrees Celsius or higher. The highest number of hot days in December was eighteen in 1931, Perth's warmest December on record with a mean maximum temperature of 31.7 degrees. Last December, Perth recorded twelve hot days.

what the .... is the go with our december weather huh?
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/12/2005 01:03

December can be quite cold, and sometimes it can swing from cold to searingly hot very quickly. Nothing unusual is happening this year, imo. Most years it tend to rain around the last weekend in November and rain fronts can appear on weekly basis right into January. Not so long ago I can remember a summer when it rained just about every week including in Feb! We haven't had a real heatwave for nearly ten years iirc and believe me when we do you'll be begging for mercy, vinny. I don't look forward to them at all.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/12/2005 17:47

another below average day. drizzle tomorrow isuppose the rain is needed

It should be fine today with humid, mild SW winds.
Some drizzle is possible tomorrow morning as onshore SW winds persist. Some
cloud may linger through the day though the day should become fine.
On Sunday a weak cold front will approach the state. Though a few showers are
possible late Sunday and Monday morning it may still be possible to get a light
shower during the day on Sunday.
From Monday afternoon expect fine weather for a few days though cool to mild
weather should continue.


MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR PERTH FOR:
Sunday : Shower or two. Min: 12 Max: 23
Monday : Shower or two clearing. Min: 13 Max: 22
Tuesday : Fine. Min: 11 Max: 22

TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY and FRIDAY:
Fine and mild. Maximum temperatures: Mid 20s.

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Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/12/2005 15:00

yet another day... looks like another week of below avaerage summer temps .

and the bom said a hotter summer laugh

i think we have melbournes weather
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/12/2005 15:01

Quote:
Originally posted by Blue Skies:
December can be quite cold, and sometimes it can swing from cold to searingly hot very quickly. Nothing unusual is happening this year, imo. Most years it tend to rain around the last weekend in November and rain fronts can appear on weekly basis right into January. Not so long ago I can remember a summer when it rained just about every week including in Feb! We haven't had a real heatwave for nearly ten years iirc and believe me when we do you'll be begging for mercy, vinny. I don't look forward to them at all.
and the bom said a hot summer laugh

cloudy today low twenties
below average temps set to continue
Posted by: nj28au

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/12/2005 22:32

I'm loving this mild weather. I find it easy to sleep in too. It's actually RAINING at the moment. I don't mind hot weather it's the muggy weather I can't stand. What's the weather like where you guys/girls are?
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/12/2005 12:03

I've got a theory that the seasons have actually started to reverse in Perth and that we are now going backwards and heading back towards winter. smile

nah seriously we are lagging way behind temp wise and I mainly think its due to the colder than normal indian ocean, its been below average now since winter and until that warms up a bit we are going stay stuck in this mild gloom. Though I think it will be a hot late summer with a very warm and wet March/April, I'm hoping anyway! smile
Posted by: Thunder head

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/12/2005 15:45

Quote:
Originally posted by vinny:
yet another day... looks like another week of below avaerage summer temps .

and the bom said a hotter summer laugh

i think we have melbournes weather
try hobarts weather :p
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/12/2005 16:21

I'm loving it as I don't like summer that much.
Does anyone know what's happening with the Perth radar? I've never seen that before.

:cheers: Jules
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/12/2005 16:28

Quote:
Originally posted by silvercloud:
I'm loving it as I don't like summer that much.
Does anyone know what's happening with the Perth radar? I've never seen that before.

:cheers: Jules
Its interference of some sort creating false readings, dont actually know what it is exactly but it seems lately there have been more and more frequent occasions were the radar has been showing this, bout time Perth got a new radar me thinks, preferably a doppler smile
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/12/2005 16:49

Thanks Tim.

:cheers: Jules
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/12/2005 16:58

I hate the cold full point. I love heat, but hate working in extreme heat.

This is the worst start to a summer i can ever remember. We have had 3 Septembers now
Posted by: Thunder head

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/12/2005 18:23

What is the average temps supposed to be in Perth for this time of year?

Just or the record, Melbourne and Adelaide are facing potential mid-high 30's temps next monday laugh
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/12/2005 18:51

ave for December is Min 16.4C and Max 29.1C, looks as though we wont get anywhere near that until mid month, just like November, thats for the max temp, were already close to the min, well closer smile
Posted by: Twisters

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/12/2005 21:30

Yeah satring t feel for u guys weeks of 20-25c wether would kill me looks like that high off the west caost anit going anywere for the next week so more of the same and perths know for your Hot Summers though u watch Jan Feb Mar Apr will be hootter than ever lol

On the up side the longer u saty Cold the More Chance we have of Heat and NNe winds so that is keeping me happy smile smile

Twister
Posted by: nj28au

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/12/2005 22:51

It was COLD today the max being 19 degrees. I was sitting outside not wearing a jumper and I really felt it. Summer can stay away as I hate the heat.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/12/2005 23:02

nj28au, i know exactly what you mean... i was out the front of my house this arvo and i felt absolutely freezing cold.

what would happen if the summer didn't arrive?? imagine this for 3 months..... has it happened like this before?? this year has been unusual for me anyway.

just checked out this weeks weather..... 21??? with 10 at night frown ... i remember last years warm weather.... come back please
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/12/2005 23:07

i was looking at the temps last night 4 december and saw sydney in the thirties and brissy and melbourne and adelaide high twenties and only hobart and perth were cooler.

global warming? huh then we should be warming up

anyway time again to head off to the weather whinge thread with all you melbournites..
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/12/2005 14:25

Mostly sunny
11C - 21C

Wednesday

Clearing shower
12C - 22C

Thursday

Late shower
11C - 24C

Friday

Clearing shower
13C - 23C

Saturday

Late shower
12C - 25C

Sunday

Windy with showers
14C - 23C

Monday

Possible shower
11C - 21C

Tuesday

Possible shower
11C - 21C



welcome to summer in perth! laugh
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/12/2005 17:19

It surely sucks...

Worst I can ever remember...this is torture of weather conditions.

Why isn't the Indian Ocean warming up a prediction behind the cold temperatures.

We also need the development of low pressure systems or a cyclone in the north to bring the heat down...that hasn't happened very much at all of late.

But I will treasuring the heat when it comes...20.1 maximum...what the hell!!!
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/12/2005 21:58

We only got to 18 here in Donnybrook with lots of cloud and cold winds.

:cheers: Jules
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/12/2005 14:47

Quote:
Originally posted by Egan:
It surely sucks...

Worst I can ever remember...this is torture of weather conditions.

Why isn't the Indian Ocean warming up a prediction behind the cold temperatures.

We also need the development of low pressure systems or a cyclone in the north to bring the heat down...that hasn't happened very much at all of late.

But I will treasuring the heat when it comes...20.1 maximum...what the hell!!!
yes... what the hell.... next week prepare for one day of really warm weather 26 degrees :rolleyes:

lets not dispare summer will arrive soon it has just got lost and not sure whether to arrive or let its mate winter stay
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/12/2005 15:09

LOL Vinny laugh

:cheers: Jules
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/12/2005 15:48

Vinny it bought a map from BOM...
LOL... well this AM it was nice ... in Perth CBD anyhow... seems to have come back to normal now... all cloudy and cooling off AGAIN! That Bleeping word AGAIN.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/12/2005 20:18

Raining right now in Golden Bay
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/12/2005 00:52

Cool weather continues in WA
Matt Pearce, Thu 16:17 EDT

Residents of southwest WA will be starting to wonder whether summer is ever going to arrive as the run of cool, cloudy weather continues. On Thursday, Perth struggled to 22 degrees, 7 below average, and its 6th day in a row below average. The cool pattern is caused by the ridge of high pressure lying well north of its typical position at this time of year, causing westerly winds to persist instead of the seasonal easterlies. The Indian Ocean is running a couple of degrees below average off the WA coast, resulting in cooler conditions along the coast. No end is in sight to the pattern with temperatures expected to remain in the low to mid 20s well into next week

that explains it pretty much.
no heavy showers here just a little tiny shower this evening about 630

as a person who wa snot born here i was wondering has perth ever had a summer pattern like this before?


Mostly sunny
14C - 23C

Saturday

Late shower
12C - 25C

Sunday

Showers
14C - 20C

Monday

Showers
14C - 21C

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy
14C - 24C

Wednesday

Mostly sunny
12C - 26C

Thursday

Possible shower
13C - 22 laugh
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/12/2005 12:16

1.2mm in Perth overnight, not bad for a December front smile

I did some quick calculations and if we stick to the forecast for the next 5 days we will need to average 34C for the remainder of the month to get to the average max for December! not likely!

As far as this been kind of summer being unheard of Vinny. Perth has had a cool start to summer before, this is the coolest start to summer in 40 years and the lowest average max for December is 24.3C in 1902 and 1922, so there have been at least 3 summers with similar coolness.
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/12/2005 13:13

Hasn't been like this for a while though. frown
Posted by: Lawnbowler

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/12/2005 16:49

Hi all, my name is Lawnbowler, and live in Mandurah,WA, this is my first post on this forum.
while I am not happy with this very rare start to our summer, I am keeping fingers crossed we dont jump to 40+ for Christmas.
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/12/2005 20:43

Welcome aboard lawnbowler, it will be good to have input from Mandurah....

Tim, it seems you have taken over the role of rain burgler up there..I only got about 0.5mm bringing me up to 4.5mm for the month so far.. I'm really loving this cool weather..too many summers in Perth have blunted my appetite for hot weather i'm afraid.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/12/2005 22:15

at least this cooler weather keeps the dam levels from going down to quicly

they reached 42 percent from this winters rainfall

now 40.4 so i suppose thatis agood thing

i still think twice a week with retic is ok i am sick of being told once on one of the days to water. i mean it isn;t like a downpour is gonna happen for afew moths yet.

yes more cooler weather. the high is stuck on the map off the west coast the cold fronts are not south

is global warming causing these temps i would maybe not agree as doesn;t the theory say that temps willlg et hotter not cooler.
It is shaping up to be a very cool December in southwest WA this year. In the city of Perth, temperatures have consistently remained below the average (29 degrees), with the highest daytime temperature to date being 27 degrees on Dec 2. The average December temperature for 2005 has been 23 degrees. These persistently low temperatures are the result of predominantly westerly winds affecting the southwest, rather than the easterlies typically seen this time of year. Temperatures will be slightly warmer across the southwest on Saturday (Perth can expect 25 degrees); however, Sunday will see temperatures plummet once again as a cool pool of air pushes up behind a cold front expected to cross the coast early on Sunday morning (Perths forecast maximum is just 20 degrees eek frown ). There is no end in sight for these below average temperatures as southwesterly winds are expected to persist during the coming week. source (weatherzone.com.au)

dam levels

last year 237.85 gl this year 273.75gl
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/12/2005 22:17

might i also add we exceeded our rainfall average this year in late october smile

We have received 871.4mm of rain so far this year (January to December) compared to average of 859mm
smile
Perth's Seasonal Rainfall
Perth has received 1.6mm of rain so far this Summer, compared to the Summer rainfall average of 36mm frown
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/12/2005 01:35

Still alot of it to go vinny. smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/12/2005 19:56

Wintry blast for southwest WA
Tom Saunders, Sat 17:21 EDT

A cold front will spread showers across southwest WA on Sunday while maintaining well below average temperatures. The front will reach the far southwest corner early in the morning and move quickly east to reach the SA border by around midnight. A band of scattered showers will accompany the passage of the front with around 5 to 10mm likely across the Southwest, Lower West and Southern Coastal districts. Cold southwesterly winds behind the front will drop daytime temperatures around 10 degrees below average. So far this month Perth is averaging a high of only 22.6 degrees, well below the long term average of 29. The low temperatures are the result of a continuous westerly airstream, which brings relatively cool air from the Indian Ocean. At this time of year there is normally occasional periods of easterly winds which draw in hot air from the country's interior. Temperatures will remain well below average across southwest WA until at least the weekend frown


source weatherzone.com.au

as rove mc manus would say "what the!" laugh
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/12/2005 02:30

Hmm Cricket could be affected by rain delays in December when its normally hot.

This Friday BOM are saying that a few showers are clearing while weatherzone has it at 26c

Please, please be right Weatherzone.

I am crying that its 37 in Adelaide tommorow and 20 here
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/12/2005 12:03

4.6mm last night

1.8mm in the city

yes... only 20 today and 38 in adelaide.. oh well perths time will come soon.
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/12/2005 21:53

We're rain hogs here in donnybrook as we got 11mm. Got to a 'tropical'19 today.

:cheers: Jules
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/12/2005 22:56

Cool in southwest WA
Hannah Marsh, Sun 17:24 EDT

Once again maximum temperatures remained below average in southwest WA. A cold front is passing southwestern WA on Sunday resulting in strong cold winds and showers. Temperatures were as low as 10 degrees below average. Perth had only reached 19 degrees at 2pm WST (10 below average for this time of year). The low temperatures are the result of a continuous westerly airstream, which brings relatively cool air from the Indian Ocean. A ridge of high pressure will clear showers from WA, however cool southwesterly winds will maintain the below average temperatures. Maximum temperatures in southwest WA are forecast to be as much as 9 degrees below average mad on Monday and 6 below on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to stay below average until towards the end of the week when the high will push east and tend winds northeasterly. smile source weatherzone.com.au


at least the weekend will be fine right? smile
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/12/2005 13:21

We got down to about 9 last night and at the mo it's 16.

:cheers: Jules
Posted by: Natasha

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/12/2005 16:01

OMG Silvercloud - sounds like Melbourne
what is Perth going to be like from 23rd dec to 2nd jan? (we are coming over for a holiday - do we take winter woollies LOL?)
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/12/2005 16:20

i would say it is gonna be hot as looking at this weekends forecast we are going to finally geta summer pattern going.
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 13/12/2005 12:44

Yep, some hot weather on the way (thank god).
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 13/12/2005 23:13

might be this weekend but

TREND FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY and TUESDAY:
Fine before a few showers later. Maximum temperatures: Low 30s cooling to low 20s

of course the bureau of meteorology still thinks we are in for a scorcher of a summer. well time will tell.

when was the last time perth got average rainfall in decmeber jan and feb??
Posted by: Crozz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/12/2005 11:31

Quote:
Originally posted by vinny:


of course the bureau of meteorology still thinks we are in for a scorcher of a summer. well time will tell.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/maps/max.national.hrweb.gif?20051116

Really? From what I can see they are only predicting 55-60% chance of a "warmer than average" Dec-Feb period. Thats almost a 50/50 bet each way, and even if we do have a "warmer than average" summer, there is no indication how much hotter it would be... could only be 0.1C hotter.

I think the media take this data way out of context. Dont believe everything that you read, most of these people are weather noobs and know much less than you or I.
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/12/2005 15:27

I think what they were saying is, it's going to be a hot, late summer.
Posted by: BOM99

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/12/2005 16:00

Here in Tamworth where we are suppose to have only a 45% chance of exceeding our summer maximums it is already well above avegare for even a normal January. Hardly ever get a day below 31deg which is suppose to be the January norm. And yes Perth, Ah Perth its well and truley cool in the 55% warmer region.
Unfortuanatly our science behind any forcast longer than 7 days into the future is very weak. Perhaps the Chaos theory will always destroy any chance of any forcast longer than 7 days no matter how much data and knowledge we have.
Posted by: Thunder head

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/12/2005 16:37

For Melbourne they are saying a 55% chance of BELOW average temps confused but at the moment temps are running slighly above average.

hope to god that we don't get a 3rd crappy Jan and Feb in a row
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/12/2005 01:33

It was only 19.5 C at my place today. I've still got my ugh boots on. brrr I finally have to admit this is not normal for this time of year.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/12/2005 11:52

looks like we may get a few days of summer weather for once even 17 at night!
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/12/2005 12:20

Yeah and about time too, we need to average 34.5C over the rest of the month to get to the average, not likely! smile

The long range models are predicting a trough to form for Christmas day and get active for boxing day, I hope it comes off, nothing better than a hot christmas day and a boxing day storm. smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/12/2005 22:13

mid 20's next week is better than low 20' si suppose! and grey skies mad


heatwave may be nice :p
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/12/2005 22:31

Yeah, there is nothing more annoying than a series of weak cold fronts that do nothing more than give us overcast weather or light showers and drizzle. Looks like another of these crappy weak cold fronts will reach us on Tuesday.
Posted by: Twisted Kris

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/12/2005 23:20

Meanwhile yesterday, in the North of the State, Kris was sitting in a singlet drinking coldies at 7pm in Tom Price, and the temp was a pleasant 38 degrees :-)

Sorry lads!!

:-)
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/12/2005 11:27

Quote:
Originally posted by Twisted Kris:
Meanwhile yesterday, in the North of the State, Kris was sitting in a singlet drinking coldies at 7pm in Tom Price, and the temp was a pleasant 38 degrees :-)

Sorry lads!!

:-)
so yah should be! its good to know some of WA is having summer though smile

what yah doing up there? work?
Posted by: *Runoff*

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/12/2005 13:13

Those bloody cold fronts are pushing the highs north and stalling the onset of our wet :rolleyes:
Posted by: Twisted Kris

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/12/2005 14:03

:-) [/qb][/QUOTE]so yah should be! its good to know some of WA is having summer though smile

what yah doing up there? work? [/QB][/QUOTE]

Work??? pretending to!!

I get shuffled off up there fairly regularly, quite an easy stint, usually only 3-5 days at a time, haven't managed to coincide it with a Pilbarra TS yet though, be just my luck it will crack off after I leave!

Cheers
Kris
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/12/2005 22:16

Dry in WA and warming briefly
Brett Dutschke, Fri 16:35 EDT

Persistent southwesterly winds have been responsible for keeping temperatures below average for the first half of summer. Perth has not recorded an above average maximum since November 27 (3 weeks ago. Badgingarra in the Central Wheat Belt has a running average maximum of 24 degrees for December so far compared to the normal 32. Winds will shift briefly northeasterly over the weekend, bringing warmer air to southwest WA. Over the next few days this warmer air will gradually head back north and east due to the return of the southwesterly airflow. Very little rain is likely in these southwesterlies. Perth's best chance of registering an above average temperature in the next week is tomorrow, but this will only happen if the sea breeze turns up late. There is a high chance of much of southwest WA experiencing the coldest December on record. Beverley in the Central Wheat Belt is still 4 below its previous coolest December in 34 years of records


source weatherzone.com.au

i think this month will not see temps in the thirties let alone forties that often i only hope that we start to get warmer weather soon otherwise autumn winter weather will be close to us again!! (last 40 was a long time ago)

will be interesting to see the bom 3 month outlook release next monday. they reckon a hotter than average summer so far wrong!!!

yeah 29 tomorrow and some temps high next week just not liking waking up and the sky is grey and drizzle like this morning! frown
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/12/2005 22:46

I take it these means that the BOM see no hope of things improving over Christmas - new year then. That seriously sucks.
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/12/2005 22:49

Quote:
Originally posted by vinny:


they reckon a hotter than average summer

frown [/QB]
Yeah, and pigs might fly.

Whoever said this must be feeling like a muppet now!
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/12/2005 23:01

Looking foward to 29 tommorrow, although next week we're back to showers with temps low to mid 20's, it's getting beyond a joke. How much more cold fronts are going to keep destroying our chances of warming up. mad
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/12/2005 23:06

Quote:
Originally posted by Jason:
How much more cold fronts are going to keep destroying our chances of warming up. mad [/QB]
What is it with all these sodding cold fronts?

I'm no meteorologist but aren't they supposed to pass south of Perth in summer, with the limited summer precipitation coming from thunderstorms and mid level disturbances?
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/12/2005 23:09

yeah and isn't our climate supposed to be meditteranean !?
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/12/2005 23:17

meditteranean laugh not anymore, well at least for now anyway.

Our cold fronts are meant to be further south at this time of year, of course you may still get the odd weak cold front, but we certainly shouldn't be getting this many.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/12/2005 23:20

jason, you have a line for your space

in other words nothing was posted
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/12/2005 23:22

just had to edit the post, should be right now.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/12/2005 11:57

Well it looks as though some places like Kalgoorlie may have set some records for overnight mins last night, Kalgoorlie doesnt look like it dropped much below 30C all night! and there record for December is 28.3C, will have to wait for the 9am obs to come in. Not surprising though considering the 850 temps in that region, up around 28C! should be very hot in the eastern wheatbelt today too.

While Perth on the other hand has had its summer and is back to overcast and mild for at least another week...
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/12/2005 13:34

The cloud cover has kept it warmish.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/12/2005 14:35

There were a few places that scored a new record min for December, they were Kalgoorlie 29.1C (28.2C), Leinster 29.7C (28.7C), Wiluna 30.5C (30C) and Leonora equalled its record with 30.4C. Very warm indeed.
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/12/2005 16:49

Norseman also at 44.7 last time I looked.
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/12/2005 19:04

Eyre tops the state with 47. Now that's HOT!!!

:cheers: Jules
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/12/2005 19:20

Yeah Jules and it could have gone even higher, it was 47.5C at 3pm there!!! easily a record for that location for December and possibly for all months?

Well just found that the all time record for that site is 47.6C so there is a good chance they beat that.
Posted by: Crozz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/12/2005 19:43

Previous max for Dec was 42.3C in 16 years of records.

No reason to doubt its authenticity since nearby Balgair scored 46.0 at 3pm.

Maybe Blair can confirm this...
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/12/2005 23:13

I've got no reason to doubt its authenticity either (although 42.3 seems an awfully soft record for that location). Eucla stayed fairly steady around its 3 p.m. mark so I don't think Eyre would have got much higher (and almost certainly not to 50), but we won't know until tomorrow morning.

If only the wind hadn't stayed up last night we might have been looking at a 40-degree diurnal range (but the wind did stay up and the min was 22).

Might not be the last time this week that there's a serious run at 50 somewhere in Australia, if the ECMWF for Friday is to be believed (thicknesses of 590 in the Birdsville area).
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/12/2005 01:54

When will this high pressure system blow east and give us some decent ****ing weather...
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/12/2005 03:05

possibly mostly in the weekend smile

brisbane is in the mid 30's christmas day

what happened to summer in perth.

bm says there is a 65 chance of above average rainfall three months to march in perth
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/12/2005 09:44

Quote:
Originally posted by vinny:

bm says there is a 65 chance of above average rainfall three months to march in perth [/QB]
What do they base these predictions on?

Are they saying that the heat trough which has been largely non existent to date is suddenly going to become very active, giving more thunderstorms than normal?

Then again, they predicted a hotter than average summer earlier on, so the long range forecasts must be taken with a grain of salt.
Posted by: Crozz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/12/2005 11:04

Quote:
Originally posted by sandgroper:
What do they base these predictions on?
I think the rainfall predictions are based on current sea surface temps with previous observations... as opposed to NWP methods.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/12/2005 13:37

Well the official max for Eyre is 47.5C so just missing out on there all time record, still damn hot. Interesting to see how much that site can vary from day to day, they had 3.4C on Friday morning and now 47.5C just 3 days later, also they had a -0.4C at the start of the month! definitely a real mixture.
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/12/2005 13:48

The range of 48.4 for the month (47.5 and -0.9) is an Australian record - a ranking list in which Eyre now holds the top 6 places. (The previous record was 45.3 in November 2003, 44.4/-0.9).

The -0.9 on 2 December was the first ever sub-zero min in WA in summer.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/12/2005 23:31

this summer is still mild..... 27 tomorrow and in a couple of days or so 21.

maybe a shower may arrive in perth?
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/12/2005 14:55

Even I am starting to doubt if summer is ever gonna arrive.
I can't see any day before Jan 1st getting above 30c.
For gods sake i am wearing a jumper right now.
I have only used my pool once this year
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/12/2005 15:04

Thats definitely a month of extremes then Blair! thought it looked impressive. smile That site seems to have been around for ages (around 100 years) yet almost all the records are very recent, was there a long time between observations there or something?

Well looks as though we will get a decent front (for this time of year) tonight, the BoM are calling it 'moderate' can't remember the last time we got a moderate front so close to christmas! You can definitely tell just be looking around perth that we are having such a mild run, the jacaranda trees are still struggling to bloom! also my frangipani has just started to sprout some new growth whereas usaully it is almost flowering already! crazy

doing the sums and we need to only average 26C or less for the remainder of the month to score the coolest December on record (max temp) and also it looks likely that we will end the month with only two days over the average!!

Hopefully this pattern ends early in the new year, I was really looking forward to some great storm chases over my 2 weeks off over christmas and new year.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/12/2005 15:07

Sorry double post, d'oh
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/12/2005 15:10

Yeah its seriously depressing, I can't remember a start to summer this s***house. I was hoping things would get their act together before Christmas, but there seems to be no end to this sodding pattern of few showers every few days and nothing above high 20s - this is like bloody Melbourne!

I'm just p*ssed off because i've got holidays between Christmas and new years and was hoping to spend the days down at Cott. Even if summer gets going later in won't be half as good when i'm back at work.
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/12/2005 17:42

I for one am missing the summer storms... I can remember some fantastic storms Perth has had during the summer months... Hmmm I remember about 4 or so years ago when I was at the royal we had a amazing storm... lightning was fantastic... you could smell it!

Bring on the summer storms... i bet tonight is a fisser LOL
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/12/2005 17:48

yeah sandgroper, I bet the day we all go back to work summer will arrive! either way we are owed a extra month of summer now, so I would like mine around about august, to break the cold of winter up nicely laugh smile

Tonight should see around 3mm in Perth, maybe more in some places, theres already some lines of showers south west of perth slowly working their way up the coast from Bunbury, so it shouldn't be a fizzer rat. Should be a cool day tommorow as well with a chilly south-westerly blowing.
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/12/2005 21:56

Everywhere else in Australia tommorrow is going to be hotter than Perth. You would even be better off in Melbourne which is going for 36 and even Hobart is going for 27. How about we just all pack our bags and move elsewhere. laugh
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/12/2005 22:29

had a very heavy shower but only dumped 0.6mm here in success/atwell

weird ... i saw tomorrows temps and it still is cool.

what if summer never arrives?

maybe next year?
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/12/2005 22:50

Just read an article on the BOM site that suggests that there is about a 65% chance of above average rain for early 2006, very interesting. It looks as if it will be from summer rain or storms and not more of those stupid cold fronts as it shows that areas north and east of Perth will have a slightly higher chance of receiving above average rain, which probably means more low pressure systems and troughs. But still who knows if we will get higher rainfall totals, I guess we will just have to wait and see.

http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/climate/ahead/20051219R.shtml
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/12/2005 23:31

so there is a 35 percent chance it will be dry and warm?
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/12/2005 23:44

Have also just found the climate outlook in relation to temps, which seem to indicate a 60 - 65% chance of higher temps, so it looks like it might be warm and rainy, although I still don't think there will be much rain, considering our average for Jan is only around 8mm, it probably means that we might receive double that, which still wouldn't be much anyway.

http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/climate/ahead/20051219T.shtml
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/12/2005 01:17

So it's 65% chance of high heat, 65% chance of more rain - via cyclones, perhaps? Could be a really interesting Feb-March period.
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/12/2005 01:49

What a crock of ****, 65% could mean anything. We'll just have to wait and see i guess.
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/12/2005 02:20

I just want a few weeks of temps in the 30's!

Fricken Hobart warmer than us tomorrow, what a joke!
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/12/2005 11:34

Never read too much into those 3 month outlooks, I tend to see what they ae predicting and expect the opposite I actually went back and compared there prediciton to what actually happened for a number of 3 month periods before and more often than not when there was an increased likely hood of one thing, the exact opposite happened, for example, this is the 3 month temp outlook for October to December:

October to December Temp outlook

70-75% chance of warmer than average max and 75-80% of warmer than average min!

And the Perth site looks like it missed out completely on the rain, though a few others got a mm or two, I got a little over 1mm at mine. Though the lower south west scored well, with some falls in the double digits.
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/12/2005 12:50

Pissed down in Ocean Reef which is like next door to Edgewater so we probably got hit by the same mini front.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/12/2005 13:04

mini front! thats a new one smile
I wouldnt say it pissed down here more like dribbled smile
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/12/2005 15:23

You burgled my rain again Tim...I got 5 widely spaced drops here and none of these landed in the rain gauge. Not bad for a moderate front smile

Nice day though, I really like this weather. If it never got over 25C I'd not mind in the least..sitting on 19.8 at the moment with a nice stiff southerly.. excellent.
Posted by: Twisted Kris

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/12/2005 15:57

Have a look at the GFS model for Broome region for Saturday LI -6 to -8 and CAPE is 2800 to 3000
quite interesting to see what develops!
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/12/2005 18:18

only reaching just 21.. geee and the rest of australia is hotter than perth confused

still think that next year the summer will arrive in perth maybe in late jan and go to maybe march?
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/12/2005 19:28

Summer always goes until March and usually half of April as well..I would not worry too much Vinny, summer will come..

Its interesting quoting rainfall averages for January (say).. In the last 18 years we have two 100mm events in that month.. Lets say that averages 10mm for Jan over 20 years... We are more likely to have no rain in Jan. than 8-10mm in my opinion..
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/12/2005 11:34

Yeah Lert if you look at the median rainfall (that is the middle of the range) for the the summer months it is like half the average. The average as you said is pushed up by the massive downpours we can very occasionally get in summer.

As far as yesterdays rain goes, I didnt steal it from yah lert, it would have passed over your place first, so it obviously was waiting for a nice place to dump its load :p smile

Very cold around the metro area last night, 8.9C at the metro site (5th coldest Dec min on record) the airport got 7C and Jandakot 5.1C might be some other records around the place too. I got 8.3C at my place.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/12/2005 01:11

i would like to see some series of days like last year with 30's for 3 days in a row
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/12/2005 02:33

another below average day and month low 20's to mid 20's and sunny blue skies

still waiting for summer to arrive if it is going to laugh
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/12/2005 23:48

Well it was this time last year that I was around Moora chasing! (Some at the ASWA meeting saw the size of the hail I ran into up there!) And here in Floreat we got 8.8mm in 10 mins, and golfball sized hail!!!!!!!! Cant see that in the forecasts frown

Oh well, at least new years day seems to be cool to mild for when we play at Perth Cup smile

Tim, in regards to that DVD I have of the water spout....still havnt burnt you a copy......will try to over this holiday period!
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/12/2005 15:12

i think this whole summer is gonna continue mild and winter will be like this years (2005) confused

still 24 degrees today not to bad.. similar weather to a place i used to live in new zealand... very intersting that. :rolleyes:

good thing about this weather and theonly good thing is the dams ha not gone down so fast in supply still 39.2 from 42 capacity this year
although low at least it aint as low as last years start to summer dam levels smile


Expect fine and mild weather today. Thursday will be fine until the chance of a
light shower overnight. Friday will be fine after a possible early shower, then
Saturday and Sunday will be fine and cool to mild. Expect fine and warmer
weather for the first half of next week.


MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR PERTH FOR:
Friday : Possible early shower. Min: 13 Max: 23
Saturday : Fine. Min: 13 Max: 21
Sunday : Fine. Min: 11 Max: 25

TREND FOR MONDAY, TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY:
Fine. Max temps: High 20s slowly rising
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/12/2005 15:39

Weatherzone have a minimum of 20c for Mandurah next week...when Perth has the predicted minimum of 14c.

For a distance of 72kms...the weather conditions between Mandurah and Perth are distinctly different...
Posted by: Melodie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/12/2005 16:09

Has anyone heard that South Africa is apparently having a similar summer to ours? That is, a real fizzer, not happening. I have a sister in Hobart and I always gave her a hard time about how cold it is there in summer. Now I have really lost face...and my brother-in-law is a meteorolgist there but he is in the Anatartic nat the moment. I am going to blame him for sending us these cold winds when the orange ship which brings them all down there passed by under WA! I guess they are having it colder than us though....still not a consolation. I am so humiliated to see the temps. everywhere else in the country higher than ours....
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/12/2005 22:19

Here we have the most exciting thing that has happened all summer!

"On Saturday a deepening surface trough will interact with an approaching middle
level disturbance to generate cloudy conditions across most of the wheatbelt
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, gradually contracting east"

Ok so nothing to really get excited bout....and not even for Perth as such, but hey, its next door, and there's nothing else to really report!

p.s. good to see a neighbour on the board Melodie! I live in Floreat, and im also a musician!
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/12/2005 15:03

I was thinking about maybe a chase on Saturday.
The problem is it's a long drive and by the time you get out there they will be contracting too far east
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/12/2005 15:20

Mostly sunny
15C - 23C

Saturday Mostly Sunny 13-20

Sunday

Mostly sunny
11C - 25C

Monday

Mostly sunny
15C - 28C

Tuesday

Mostly sunny
16C - 27C

Wednesday

Mostly sunny
17C - 27C

Thursday

Sunny
18C - 28C
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/12/2005 21:42

Hey now Monday they are thinking this...
MONDAY:
Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the Central West, Central Wheat Belt and
northeast Great Southern Districts, extending into the Southern Coastal District
later.

Havnt seen the AVN yet as it is on Error.
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/12/2005 01:01

Temps looking better next week, as long as they stay that way then I'll be happy.
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/12/2005 09:31

Only 20 now for NYE! Arrgh!! If this were only one day later and it were an even 20 it would be the second coldest Jan day on record!

We need ASLAN to come and bring and end to this eternal winter!
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/12/2005 16:05

who is aslan??

cloudy today 40 in adelaide as i type this

monday nwards looks like summer coming hopefully hope it goes into march this warmer weather
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/12/2005 17:59

Weh have a poss T.S. on Tues!

"MONDAY:
Isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Central West District in the
morning. Showers and thunderstorms increasing during the day and extending
southwards into the north of the Lower West District and throughout the Central
Wheat Belt and central and eastern parts of the Great Southern and Southern
Coastal Districts. Generally warmer.

TUESDAY:
A band of thunderstorms through central and southern parts of the South West
Land Division contracting southwards during the afternoon and evening." laugh

Im gonna go chase. The AVN plotter looks really poor, LI and CAPE wise, tho I asume its the mid level low interacting with the surface trough that will be triggering the storms.

Anyone elses thoughts??
:cheers:
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/12/2005 20:13

Perth - 21
Melbourne - 42

Now that is depressing...

Very depressing...
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/12/2005 20:47

You blokes are weird.. God presents us with a summer month with maxes 5.5C below average and everyone is grizzling. Don't forget that there are still 2 months or so to go when you can't touch the steering wheel, get tar stuck to your thongs etc etc.. whats the problem ? you can get by with a tee shirt and shorts and still sleep under a doona.. Helen out a Cobar knows what the story is..35c at midnight, if you sleep on the verandah, flies up you nose at 5am, big red ball in the east comes up and she say's 'oh no not again'. Been there, done that as they say..I love it as it is here right now..
Posted by: Twisted Kris

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/12/2005 21:06

Quote:
Originally posted by Kirk:
I was thinking about maybe a chase on Saturday.
The problem is it's a long drive and by the time you get out there they will be contracting too far east
Kirk,
I'm thinking about maybe heading out towards Southern Cross, would you be interested?. I'll know for sure if I'm going later on this arv.
Cheers
Kris.
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/12/2005 23:20

Quote:
Originally posted by vinny:
who is aslan??
Sorry mate, it was a reference to the lion the witch and the wardrobe, which it seems that all of perth is seeing at the moment (at least it was sold out at my local movies on Tues night). In a nutshell, in that film the mythical land of Narnia is cursed by a never ending winter, which Aslan the lion brings to an end.
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/12/2005 00:43

Quote:
Originally posted by Lert:
You blokes are weird.. God presents us with a summer month with maxes 5.5C below average and everyone is grizzling. Don't forget that there are still 2 months or so to go when you can't touch the steering wheel, get tar stuck to your thongs etc etc.. whats the problem ? you can get by with a tee shirt and shorts and still sleep under a doona.. Helen out a Cobar knows what the story is..35c at midnight, if you sleep on the verandah, flies up you nose at 5am, big red ball in the east comes up and she say's 'oh no not again'. Been there, done that as they say..I love it as it is here right now..
You seem to be forgetting that this barry crocker of a December is coming after one of the coolest springs on record - we have essentially had 7 months of winter, and I think I speak for the majority of WA punters here when I say that I am totally fed up with cold SW winds!

40 in Perth is much more pleasant than the same over east, in that its usually a dry heat and there is usually a sea breeze to moderate things. Also,most of the pop. here is not too far from a beach, which is not the case in western NSW.

We are blessed with one of the rarest and best climate types in the world - Mediterranean - and the thought of this changing is very depressing. Our long hot dry summers are after all one of our defining characteristics, and our outdoor lifestyle is fully based around it.

Just had to get that off my chest, this winter like gale blowing tonight (and the prospect of a freezing day tomorrow) is getting me down.
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/12/2005 10:44

Yeah Sandgroper..have lived in Perth for near 20 years and have lived in NW NSW and up in the Gascoyne as well so fully aware of the climate differences..Maybe its just that I would not look forward to a repetition of the summer before last when we had those days that were 40/20 with power restrictions (no aircon) to boot.

BTW, its Heather at Cobar..sorry, my bad.

Cheers
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/12/2005 11:35

far out was at fremantle south beach yesterday night and gee it was extremenly windy....

although summer may arrive late as i have heard it will be shorter if it comes late

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR PERTH FOR:
Sunday : Fine. Sunny. Min: 13 Max: 26
Monday : Fine day. Becoming cloudy. Min: 15 Max: 29
Tuesday : Possible thunderstorm. Min: 17 Max: 29 smile

TREND FOR WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY and FRIDAY:
Fine. Max temps: Near 30.

what near 30 cmon warm up please!!!!!
Posted by: Twisted Kris

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/12/2005 14:52

With regards to temperatures, I am quite happy with anything above 20 degrees. Was born and bred 'on the tops' (On the very top of the Pennine Hills in England, bitterly bitterly cold winters with driving, drifting snow, much rain most of the year around and a very harsh environment to live in. Have been here many years, but will never forget the bone chilling icy winds nor the 8 foot deep snow drifts, and having to jump out of upstairs windows to get out of the house because of drifts, I kid not:-)

My only whinge is that we haven't had enough good convective activity yet. Can't see tuesday being too spectacular at this point.

Cheers
Kris
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/12/2005 15:15

Quote:
Originally posted by Twisted Kris:
Was born and bred 'on the tops' (On the very top of the Pennine Hills in England, bitterly bitterly cold winters with driving, drifting snow, much rain most of the year around and a very harsh environment to live in. Have been here many years, but will never forget the bone chilling icy winds nor the 8 foot deep snow drifts, and having to jump out of upstairs windows to get out of the house because of drifts, I kid not:-)

Cheers
Kris
Man, I would struggle to survive in that climate!
Posted by: Twisted Kris

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/12/2005 21:24

Sandgroper,

That's precicely why I am here, Had enough and got sick of having to de-ice the Land Rover for 40 minutes, including the door locks, each time it went to about minus 6 and below. Regularly got into the minus teens, and into the minus twenties with the WC factor thrown in. Don't know how anyone can live like that !!

Cheers
Kris
Posted by: bulldog

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/01/2006 18:49

26.6 in downtown collie at the moment and we finally have a decent soueaster roll on summer
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/01/2006 20:46

I hope all you people that like hot weather hopped a plane to catch the weather in Sydney today..you would have had a fat time over there..

Welcome to the forum bulldog. We are starting to get a wider net of weather informers going here which is good. Keep up the posts from down there..

Cheers and a happy new year, hopefully with a few thunderys..
Posted by: bulldog

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/01/2006 21:25

thanks lert and a happy new year to you too,and yes i am hoping for few good summer thunderstorms
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/01/2006 23:38

Does anyone reckon it is at all worth a chase either Mon, Tues or Wed? There is no CAPE, and a high LI, but i dont know much bout this mid level low stuff thats comming thru....can anyone help?
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/01/2006 23:54

Hey guys...
Yes I'm in Sydney atm and it was 45C here!!!

I was in and out of the Pool where I'm staying in Oatley for most of the day ! lol

Currently the strong S'ly change is in with some nice strong gusts! Temp down to 23-24C AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH laugh

Looks like some hot weather will be waiting for me back in Perth this weekend when I return :p

TREND FOR FRIDAY, SATURDAY and SUNDAY:
Fine. Max temps: Low 30's rising to the mid 30's.

JJ in Sydney =)
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/01/2006 01:23

Quote:
Originally posted by Chaser80:
Does anyone reckon it is at all worth a chase either Mon, Tues or Wed? There is no CAPE, and a high LI, but i dont know much bout this mid level low stuff thats comming thru....can anyone help?
Short answer is no, unless you want to drive to Monkey mia tommorrow and southern cross on Tuesday for a 'thundery shower'

But it's funny sometimes here in WA that a crappy model prediction goes bonkers and then the perfect setup nothing happens.

I will be keeping an eye out on gero radar while watching the cricket
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/01/2006 15:55

Quote:
Originally posted by Kirk:
Quote:
Originally posted by Chaser80:
[b] Does anyone reckon it is at all worth a chase either Mon, Tues or Wed? There is no CAPE, and a high LI, but i dont know much bout this mid level low stuff thats comming thru....can anyone help?
Short answer is no, unless you want to drive to Monkey mia tommorrow and southern cross on Tuesday for a 'thundery shower'

But it's funny sometimes here in WA that a crappy model prediction goes bonkers and then the perfect setup nothing happens.

I will be keeping an eye out on gero radar while watching the cricket [/b]
Yeah I tend to agree with yah Kirk, doesnt look too promising near us today or tommorow, was considering a chase tommorow out to the south east but I dont like the looks of things at the moment, plenty of cloud too which will inhibit the heating effect this arvo.

Some light showers heading towards us from the north east at the moment though.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/01/2006 15:57

Quote:
Originally posted by JuNgLeJiM:
Hey guys...
Yes I'm in Sydney atm and it was 45C here!!!

I was in and out of the Pool where I'm staying in Oatley for most of the day ! lol

Currently the strong S'ly change is in with some nice strong gusts! Temp down to 23-24C AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH laugh

Looks like some hot weather will be waiting for me back in Perth this weekend when I return :p

TREND FOR FRIDAY, SATURDAY and SUNDAY:
Fine. Max temps: Low 30's rising to the mid 30's.

JJ in Sydney =)
Good to hear from yah JJ, nice to hear yah didnt melt over there! smile yep we are in for a warm spell, at long last, should be nice and warm on Sunday for the meeting too smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/01/2006 16:01

hopefully we willsee some mid 30's soon
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/01/2006 16:59

I was surprised to hear a forecast for rain this evening so I have been keeping an eye on the cloud building up today. Now looking at the radar there is rain out in the Wheatbelt, a patchy line from Dalwallinu to Kellerberin and it's heading our way! Most unusual to have rain coming from the NE. I wonder if it will actually reach us. The cloud further NE again looks like it's rotating but the sat-loop shows it's not.
Posted by: Melodie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/01/2006 19:04

Looks like some hot weather will be waiting for me back in Perth this weekend when I return :p

TREND FOR FRIDAY, SATURDAY and SUNDAY:
Fine. Max temps: Low 30's rising to the mid 30's.

I can't believe it, I am off to Sydney on Sunday and then Hobart after that. I have been sitting here waiting for the warmth and when is it arriving???The day I leave!

Hopefully it will still be here when I get back on 18th Jan. mad
Posted by: Twisted Kris

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/01/2006 19:30

Hey Vinny,

If you're online right now (16.28) head outside and look West, I have the most AWESOME mammatus right over head, has been for 30 mins, really gnarly and churning, you would see it from your place. I've run off about 60 exposures in the last 20 mins!.

:-) Kris
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/01/2006 22:56

Just started to have some heavy drops at my place. From 18.45-19.00 the humidity jumped from 29% to 52%! eek And DP 7.1 to 13 degs. eek

On the weather on ch 2 John said that rain is imminent. Here it is.......hope we get some decent stuff, tho the radar isnt looking too promising for the heavy stuff. :cheers:
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/01/2006 23:16

think heavy drizzle
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/01/2006 12:01

not much rain last night!
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/01/2006 13:47

Ended up with 1mm here.

Im looking at chasing to Meredin/southern Cross and just south of there, this coming sunday the 8th. The forecast AVN is looking quite good. Would anyone else be thinking of going that far?
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/01/2006 18:22

Bags your bit of pizza if you go Chaser smile

2mm for me last night..
Posted by: Twisted Kris

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/01/2006 18:31

Quote:
Originally posted by Chaser80:
Ended up with 1mm here.

Im looking at chasing to Meredin/southern Cross and just south of there, this coming sunday the 8th. The forecast AVN is looking quite good. Would anyone else be thinking of going that far?
Looks like being the spot. I will probably go for a blast if things are looking promising.
Cheers
Kris
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/01/2006 18:32

You got it Lert....you know how fat I am laugh !!! I shouldnt be eating too much!!! laugh laugh ha ha
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/01/2006 20:07

Well the AVN has all changed...not too sure of a chase at the mo. Hope it improves.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/01/2006 02:10

Quote:
Originally posted by Twisted Kris:
Hey Vinny,

If you're online right now (16.28) head outside and look West, I have the most AWESOME mammatus right over head, has been for 30 mins, really gnarly and churning, you would see it from your place. I've run off about 60 exposures in the last 20 mins!.

:-) Kris
unfortunately i was nto online i have got some phtos of some cloud formation with orange in it i think of a couple of days ago. it was the sun setting and the clouds rolling in from east.

amazinf now 34 for three days ... i have noticed we are struggling to reach 29 but have will be interesting to see if it gets to 34 or hotter or cooler

2mm 8 to go to make average better than last year and year before with 0mm

hope this year gives us good rains

lastly it is 25 degrees and warm as now 11.10pm 4/1 haven't seen temps like this since last year
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/01/2006 16:35

I am thinking of chasing tommorow, looks like the best action will be to the North-west of Perth, anyone else thinking of chasing tommorow?

Nice and warm today in Perth and their predicting 36 for tommorow, yippee smile
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/01/2006 17:29

If i was still working from home i would be heading out tomorrow, but now I have my store it puts an end to Monday to Friday and Sat morning chases. Maybe head out just before sunset and drive north.
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/01/2006 17:47

North-west of Perth? How big is your boat Tim smile

I'll see how I go..might see you up the road somewhere..
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/01/2006 18:07

Storms moving down over Moora right now
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/01/2006 18:10

They are moving around 10km/hr though.
Watch out for maybe some storms to delovepe around Gingin on the seabreeze front and head SE.
They seem to be very slow movers, so if you get under one there would be some good falls
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/01/2006 20:47

BOM are now going for 37...may not have to chase far at all.
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/01/2006 00:11

I'm not sure how good our chances are of getting storms. Having the afternoon sea breeze isn't a good sign either. frown

FORECAST FOR THE PERTH METROPOLITAN AREA
Issued at 9:05pm WST on Thursday the 5th of January 2006 for Friday

FORECAST:
A hot day with the chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm, particularly
near the ranges. Moderate E'ly winds before an afternoon sea breeze.

TEMPERATURES: Minimum: 20 Maximum: 37
UV INDEX: 11 [EXTREME]

FIRE DANGER: Coastal Plain: HIGH
Hills: HIGH


Friday will be hot with the chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon or
overnight, particularly near the ranges. Saturday is expected to become fine
after some early thundery showers, but humid with the passage of the west coast
trough. A brief early morning shower is possible on Sunday, but should clear to
a fine day, with fine and mild conditions forecast for Monday.


MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR PERTH FOR:
Saturday : Early thundery shower. Humid. Min: 22 Max: 33
Sunday : Pre dawn shower. Fine day. Min: 19 Max: 28
Monday : Fine, sunny. Min: 16 Max: 26

TREND FOR TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY:
Fine. Max temps: Mid 20s rising to low 30s.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/01/2006 11:48

Quote:
Originally posted by Lert:
North-west of Perth? How big is your boat Tim smile

I'll see how I go..might see you up the road somewhere..
d'oh! I meant north-east smile

still looking good, getting warm quickly smile
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/01/2006 14:06

I am almost jumping out of my skin at the current obs.

Temp: 33
DP: 19

or for the more weather educated 33/19

Very rare we get such good obs, especially with an E'ly wind. As soon as this cap breaks the sky is gonna explode!
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/01/2006 14:21

I am hoping it's just a local wind change but there is now a moderate Nw'ly blowing at my store in rivervale
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/01/2006 14:25

From http://www.weather.com.au/wa/perth/current

Temperature 33.1C
Dew Point 19.3C
Relative Humidity 44%
Wind Speed 9.3km/h (5.0kt)
Wind Gusts 24.1km/h (13.0kt)
Wind Direction ENE
Pressure 1012.5hPa
Rain Since 9AM 0.0mm
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/01/2006 14:28

From BOM'S Site Current Obs

Station Name Current Observations Extremes
Date Time
(AWST) Temp
(deg C) Dew Point
(deg C) Rel Hum
(%) Wind Dir Wind Speed Wind Gust Press
(hPa) Rain since 9am
(mm

PERTH METRO 06 11:20 33.5 18.5 41 ENE 13 7 22 12 1012.2 0.0
Posted by: wastorms

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/01/2006 14:42

IDW28201
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for Flash Flooding, Damaging Winds and Hail
For people in the Central West, southeast Gascoyne and northern parts of the
Goldfields and Central Wheatbelt districts.
Issued at 11:25 am on Friday 6 January 2006

People are advised that there is a risk of severe thunderstorms during this
afternoon and evening.
Storms may be accompanied by very heavy rainfall conducive to flash flooding,
hail and strong winds that could result in damage to property.

The FESA - State Emergency Service advises that people should be aware of
thunderstorms. As storms approach secure loose items and move vehicles under
cover. If lightning accompanies the storm disconnect non essential electrical
appliances and avoid using the phone. Stay indoors until the storms have
passed. If you are caught outside seek shelter away from trees and metal
structures. Driving conditions will be hazardous. Should flash flooding occur,
avoid affected roads, watercourses and floodways in the vicinity until safe to
proceed.

The next warning will be issued by 2:30 pm Friday

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 213.
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/01/2006 14:56

Just had another look at the OBS from www.weather.com.au perth current obs... heating up and humidity lowering... wind is shifting...

Temperature 34.4C
Dew Point 19.3C
Relative Humidity 41%
Wind Speed 13.0km/h (7.0kt)
Wind Gusts 22.2km/h (12.0kt)
Wind Direction NE
Pressure 1012.3hPa
Posted by: wastorms

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/01/2006 15:02

Rat, this would be a better url to get your perths obs from smile
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60034.shtml
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/01/2006 15:07

Don't worry about humidity Rat, look at the Dew point, it's a much better indicator of how humid it is.

19 DP and a temp of 35/36 is excellent,especially for Perth!
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/01/2006 15:13

BOM still going for storms in the eastern suburbs - which probably means Northam. Wind at Rotto now turning more southerly.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/01/2006 15:17

I would think the BoM mean i line from Midland to Armadale, but it depends on how far the seabreeze makes it inland.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/01/2006 16:02

Middle level Cu all over the place now, not long now I think before the sky goes bonkers
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/01/2006 17:19

Storms exploding near moora at the mo. Should we be posting now in the briefing room...WA wheat belt.......?
Posted by: wiz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/01/2006 17:19

Storms now showing up on radar, orange cells just to the north of GinGin.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/01/2006 18:14

the towers to the north look very good as well.

Seabreeze in just about everywhere now
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/01/2006 18:25

Very nice view North of West Perth!!! I hope some of the storms make it to the city!!! Mind you from what you guys are saying etc... I dont think we we get much in the city frown
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/01/2006 22:36

Just got back from a chase up north of Gingin. I pratically headed straight towards that development between Lancelin and moora then follwed it for the next 3 hours or so. Heaps of Cgs, even managed to get one on film, even it is very light! Just North of Gingin the storm almost developed a wall cloud but broke down rather quickly. Tried to get back in front of the storm after that then landed up getting slammed by the worst rain I have seen for ages. Visibility on Northern Hwy was about 20meters at one stage! needless to say I had to pull over and wait for it to pass. While I was waiting for the rain to pass, several flangs struck the padock about 300-400meters away! then about 1km up the road there was a river across the road with a torrent of water about 20cm deep. At this stage I gave up trying to get in front of the storm and decided to get back into the sunshine, then followed the back of the storm home again.

Will post some pics later.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/01/2006 12:14

Anybody thinking about chasing??

Head to Northam, will be a good starting point
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/01/2006 12:50

I've got go out to Gingin this afternoon, do you reckon there could be anything over that way or is it likely to be further east?
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/01/2006 13:49

Quote:
Originally posted by Turbo:
I've got go out to Gingin this afternoon, do you reckon there could be anything over that way or is it likely to be further east?
I think the best of the action today is going to be quite far east out near merriden or maybe even further away. Though we could see some weak storms just over the ranges early this arvo. Gingin is probably too far west to get anything turbo.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/01/2006 13:50

This is the post I posted in the BR:

Heading north along brand hwy just south of the turnoff to Gingin (85km N of Perth). First signs of development at this stage no crackles could be heard on the radio, so I am guessing it hadn't turned into a storm as yet.



This one about 25kms further north along Brand Hwy looking north, at this stage cgs where coming down about every 10-15 seconds.



and one of the cgs, just managed to catch the end of the strike, this one taken about 10kms south of the last one, when I was trying to stay in front of the storm front.



After stopping a bit too long to watch the storm as it approached Gingin I decided to try and head out towards Tooday to get in front of the storm but only managed to get stuck in some very heavy rain, causing me to pull over for about 15mins when visibility was practically non-existant. My guesstimates of rainfall would have been around 20mm in about 15mins, but unfortunatly there are no gauges in the area to verify this. This pic was taken about 5kms north of Bindoon on the Great Northern Hwy. Water was about 20cm deep at deepest and 100meters wide.



after this I abonded my attempt to get to tooday and decided to head to the back of the storm to get out of the rain, at this stage it appeared the storm had passed its best anyway so I wasn't too disappointed to call it a day and head home.
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/01/2006 14:05

Great pics! Sounds like a good chase. Looks like I am one day too late!
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/01/2006 15:24

Thanks mate!

Though you might not be a day late, some storms developing already just east of gingin. The speed at which there shooting up! LI on the Perth sounding was over -4! Looks as though they will develop in a line from roughly bindoon to brookton then slowly move east during the day, slightly different to what I suggested earlier wink smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/01/2006 16:46

Cundernin looks to have copped a nice gusty storm, 61knot gusts and 15.4mm!
Posted by: bulldog

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/01/2006 17:58

looks like we will just miss out on a thunder storm here in collie
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/01/2006 11:59

Always happens to me, I was down in Collie on hoilday at my parents only a week ago and no action, now I'm home in Gero...
Posted by: bulldog

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/01/2006 12:56

got 1/2mm last night all the action was just to the east of us
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/01/2006 14:18

WOW.... eek check out the GFS for this Thurs. TC Clare is expected (at this early stage!) to be moving down the coast to the SWLD. Looks interesting....hope the track doesnt change tooo much.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/01/2006 14:26

Yeah saw that Tom, crazy stuff, looking promising though as you said it totally depends on the track TC Clare takes.

So you not chasing today? Looks fairly inactive out there at the moment, looks as though the trough may be east of Southern cross now. Though there is an STW for the eastern Central Wheatbelt, which may include southern cross?
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/01/2006 15:07

sure has been humid for the last few days!
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/01/2006 23:52

Yeah, and it may get more humid later in the week. Some Models have TC Clare taking a south track, which combined with a trough will draw the moisture down to us. The BOM has already suggested t/storms for Thurs / Fri - although this is prob a 20% chance at this stage.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/01/2006 12:01

Amazingily GFS is sticking by its prediction for the ex-TC Clare to pass close to Perth and cause some very interesting weather for Perth, check out this latest prediciton:

GFS for Thursday 8pm

LAPS has jumped on the bandwagon too, with its furthest prediction of Wednesday night having the low around Kalbarri.

Now lets hope it comes off smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/01/2006 15:55

Latest 4 day outlook from the BoM has this for the SWLD:

Quote:


WEDNESDAY:
Heavy flood producing rain progressively extending from the Gascoyne southwards
through the Central West and northern Central Wheat Belt Districts during the
day. More isolated showers and thunderstorms extending through the Lower West,
remaining Central Wheat Belt, Great Southern and adjacent Southern Coastal
Districts from the north during the day.

THURSDAY:
Widespread rain with thunderstorms producing locally heavy falls extending from
the northern half of the South West Land Division southwards through central
areas during the day. Scattered showers reaching southern parts as the day
progresses.
Looking good smile though by the sounds of that they are expecting the heaviest falls to be in the central west and wheatbelt districts.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/01/2006 16:01

LAPS is looking a little scary really.
It has Clare passing around the NW corner and sitting around Kalbarria as a cat 2 and if it kept on that course it would no doubt hit Perth as a possible cat 1 even
Posted by: Crozz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/01/2006 16:04

Please god may this rain event reach perth, please!

GFS has rain in excess of 60mm- which is just unheard of here in Perth, and in summer too!

Start your raindancing ppl...
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/01/2006 16:22

Now that would be a DREAM to experience... However I know the models are predicting this but I am sure I have seen this sort of thing before... I am sure they have said before that cyclones / tropicla storms would hit perth but they never did... a case of teh boy who cried wolf?

However in saying that one small one did hit Mandurah years ago... and one did go down the coast a long time before that, so am I the one to eat pie?
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/01/2006 16:25

Not exactly unheard of Crozz, I've been in Perth c. 18years and there have been two summertime 100mm (approx) events during that time and I dont think either of those were TC related.. Looking forward to the third smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/01/2006 16:41

Quote:
Originally posted by Lert:
Not exactly unheard of Crozz, I've been in Perth c. 18years and there have been two summertime 100mm (approx) events during that time and I dont think either of those were TC related.. Looking forward to the third smile
Good one, go ahead and jinx it why don't yah!
:p smile I've been in Perth longer than you! well I'll be damned laugh

I doubt that it will still be a TC by the time it reaches the west coast, it will have more than enough time over land to weaken to well below TC strength if it does what it is expected to, which as we know is not what TCs tend to do smile
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/01/2006 16:43

Lert Ahh yes the good 'ol summer rains... the flooded subways, the flooded intersections! hehe Perth's waterways / drainage cant handle that volume... Yes I hope everyone is right... I am doing my rain dance thats for sure!!!

Anyone want to predict the % chance of soem good rains?
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/01/2006 17:01

Yeah Rat, that West Perth subway is always a good bet. I just want to see all those road drainage sumps full again smile .

Good rains ? Dunno yet, the cooler than normal water off the coast south of Exmouth will preclude the TC from tracking down off the coast and if it crosses up north, well they usually head south-east.. but, if a good west coast trough forms, i'd like to see it whip down that..
my bet is 20% for more than 30mm..
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/01/2006 17:06

Yeps thought as much... we always miss out frown bummer! Oh well there will be more TC during the year... lets see what happens!
Posted by: Crozz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/01/2006 17:45

Quote:
Originally posted by Lert:
Not exactly unheard of Crozz, I've been in Perth c. 18years and there have been two summertime 100mm (approx) events during that time and I dont think either of those were TC related.. Looking forward to the third smile
Ok, maybe not 'unheard of', but extreamly rare nonetheless laugh I do remember one such 100mm event in a summer about 6 years ago (maybe someone can confirm this?), but considering our Jan ave is just 10mm I think this was the exception rather than the rule...

It is rare in Perth to have high daily total at anytime of the year... let alone in our driest month!
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/01/2006 17:51

Now the chances of something like this coming off are probably a 1 in 20 year event? maybe even higher, but if you look at the Extended GFS it has almost the same scenario happening again in a little over a week! now come on thats like the dockers winning the premiership! and Perth getting daylight savings smile
Posted by: wiz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/01/2006 17:57

104.0mm 22nd January, 2000, lots of thunderstorms that evening.

120.6mm on 9th February, 1992, I still remember the huge hailstones we had that morning at about 7am WDT. Sun came out, fine for most of the day, and then lots of rain, mainly in the city and southern suburbs after 7pm that night.
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/01/2006 18:05

And one day there Tim, it might just happen. If it is to make the west coast dive, it would proably have to be a little stronger than a cat 3. How strong was Alby when Perth was hit? Did it make cat 5? History not my best subject.
Posted by: wiz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/01/2006 18:11

No, it made it to cat 4 I think. It was still a strong system when it was due west of perth, a cat 2 I think?
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/01/2006 18:23

Thanks Wiz! BTW may want to check out the GASP +192 00Z 17/01/06 forecast chart, it's called 'follow the leader'. smile
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/01/2006 18:25

Oh my goodness.
The models are starting to agree.
They all have it around exmouth then popping offshore again around Monkey Mia and tracking down the coast.
If this does eventuate it's almost certain Perth would be on a watch for a period of time.
Posted by: wiz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/01/2006 18:30

00UTC 11.01.2006 26.8S 114.6E STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 11.01.2006 29.1S 115.8E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 12.01.2006 30.7S 116.8E WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 12.01.2006 30.7S 116.4E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

UK met has it just north of perth on the 12th, by then it wouldnt be a cyclone though.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/01/2006 18:39

Clare doesn't seem to know what to do, she was moving W/SW and now seems to be moving directly South which takes out what i just explained.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/01/2006 21:51

If the rain event does come to Perth...it will just prove how wierd Perths normally predictable summer pattern has been thus far this summer...

Everything that shouldn't happen in our summer...has happened thus far...
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/01/2006 00:50

what i find weird is yesterday bom says 36 on thursday then today 29 or 30 cmon all this week is low 30's i wanna see 36-40 at least
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/01/2006 00:54

Fine on Tuesday with gusty easterly winds in the morning but with a fresh
afternoon sea breeze. Showers developing during Wednesday with possible
thunderstorms, increasing on Thursday then clearing during Friday, as moisture
from Tropical Cyclone Clare feeds into a trough over the metropolitan area.


MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR PERTH FOR:
Wednesday : Showers, storm developing. Min: 17 Max: 31
Thursday : Rain. Possible thunderstorm. Min: 19 Max: 29 smile smile
Friday : Showers clearing. Min: 19 Max: 31

TREND FOR SATURDAY, SUNDAY and MONDAY:
Fine. Hot. Max temps: High 30s Sunday otherwise mid 30s. smile
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/01/2006 01:12

Quote:
what i find weird is yesterday bom says 36 on thursday then today 29 or 30 cmon all this week is low 30's i wanna see 36-40 at least
I think you will find that the forecast temp has dropped because they now expect a fair bit of cloud and rain from TC Clare. Time will tell.....
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/01/2006 00:00

looks like some rain for perth last year in january 0mm year before 0mm
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/01/2006 00:03

Cloudy, rain periods developing this evening with the risk of a thunderstorm
tomorrow. Moderate to fresh E/SE'ly winds. Fresh to strong coastal sea breezes
in the afternoon.

TEMPERATURES: Minimum: 18 Maximum: 25
UV INDEX: 13 [EXTREME]

FIRE DANGER: Coastal Plain: HIGH
Hills: HIGH

The overnight minimum was 16.9 at 0525 hours
Today's maximum was 32.6 at 1547hours

At 4.30pm the Perth Radar showed scattered showers or rain to the north of the
metropolitan area. Rain periods developing this evening, and should peak on
Thursday and continue into Friday before clearing later. There is a slight risk
of a thunderstorm during Thursday.
Saturday should be hot and humid with the risk of a thunderstorm. Sunday morning
drizzle will clear to a fine day.


MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR PERTH FOR:
Friday : Rain periods smile clearing. Min: 19 Max: 32
Saturday : Hot and humid. Risk of a storm. Min: 20 Max: 35 smile smile smile
Sunday : Morning drizzle, then fine. Min: 21 Max: 27

TREND FOR MONDAY, TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY:
Mainly fine. Max temps: Low 30.
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/01/2006 15:02

2.5mm at my place (Northern subs) by 0700 today, nothing at Perth at that stage.
Lots more to come though looking at the radar.
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/01/2006 15:06

And perhaps more early next week too....

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR PERTH FOR:
Saturday : Fine, humid. Min: 20 Max: 31
Sunday : Fine, hot. Min: 21 Max: 35
Monday : Late storm risk. Min: 21 Max: 37

TREND FOR TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY:
Early thundery shower Tuesday, then fine. Max temps: mid 30s.
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/01/2006 15:19

Yeah, this has been more like a summer in Brisvegas than what we're normally used to in the Perth. Feeling very fortunate that my new house has rev cycle aircon - the evap at the old place would have done squat against this humidity!
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 13/01/2006 00:10

BOM has taken out the chance of storms next week, however we could be finally getting set for our first proper heatwave of the summer with temps forecast over 30 for the outlook period cool

EDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR PERTH FOR:
Saturday : Fine, humid. Min: 20 Max: 31
Sunday : Fine, hot. Min: 21 Max: 35
Monday : Fine, hot. Min: 21 Max: 34

TREND FOR TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY:
Fine. Max temps: Low to mid 30s.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/01/2006 12:55

yes looks like some fine weather it is great we have had rain in january this year , this must be due to our drying climate laugh

lets hope an el nino doesn't develop in a hurry
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/01/2006 14:06

A Predicted top of 32c

And it only got to 22.5 c yesterday.

Was that one of the BOM's biggest mistakes for a while, although as we know weather is a funny game

I was freezing at the cricket, thinking it would be 32c...
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/01/2006 15:35

finally the grey skies have cleared. wonder if we willl get to 32

this summer is weird cool in december and 19.6mm in january.

i wonder if another cyclone will give more rain to perth soon the bom reckons 65 percent chance of above average rainfall.
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/01/2006 13:13

Quote:
Originally posted by Egan:
A Predicted top of 32c

And it only got to 22.5 c yesterday.

Was that one of the BOM's biggest mistakes for a while, although as we know weather is a funny game

I was freezing at the cricket, thinking it would be 32c...
Yeah, freezing down at Margs, after the initial forecast had said mid 30's
Luckily we were mainly doing the wineries and not swimming smile
I seriously hope it is at least warm when we go to Dunno in 2 weeks though, because the beach is definitely on the agenda for that trip.
Posted by: radar

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/01/2006 12:48

Based on some of the latest model runs I'm turning my attention to what effect this latest cyclone might have on Perth. It is a long way out but if these latest runs were to come to fruition it could mean interesting weather for Perth early next week. Check out these loops:

Extended GFS

ECMWF

Please, please, please come off! smile

Cheers

Radar
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/01/2006 13:45

Yeah I was just looking at those models and it looks most interesting indeed! smile

Especially EC which has the TC going around NW Cape then heading down the West coast! Maybe some more unseasonal summer rain for Perth next week ! laugh

JJ
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/01/2006 14:47

is it me or is it the second year that summer is mild i mean last month was 2 days in 30's this month one 36 and one 38 and well... what will feb and march bring???

why is adelaide stealing our warm weather?????
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/01/2006 15:23

The OCF for next Monday and Tuesday looks good too, predicting accumulations of around 100mm for the Perth area!


OCF for Lower West
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/01/2006 15:31

WOW that looks GREAT!!! Lets hope this time it comes off smile Come on Perth give us a nice storm!
Posted by: radar

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/01/2006 15:45

I'm encouraged by the BOM's extended outlook for SW land division:

SUNDAY:
Becoming cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the north
of the Central West and Central Wheat Belt Districts.

You'd expect that activity to make it's way southwards on Monday and Tuesday. It's encouraging also that 100% of the models used to make up the OCF forecast are going for rain in Perth on Monday and Tuesday.
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/01/2006 17:51

Quote:
Originally posted by vinny:
is it me or is it the second year that summer is mild i mean last month was 2 days in 30's this month one 36 and one 38 and well... what will feb and march bring???
It sucked back in 2001-02, when there wasn't a single day over the ton for the whole summer, let alone a 40.
I haven't had a chance to check the records again, but IIRC it wasn't wonderful last year either, (though heaps better than this year) with only sporadic hot days and no real heatwaves.

The summers here have been going to the dogs for the last 8 or so years it seems, with more humidity (so evap aircon doesn't cut it) and the really hot stuff blighted by the threat of thunderstorms (so you can't plan a BBQ ). The last really good summer was 1997 -98.
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/01/2006 18:05

Just checked that bloody link - more sodding rain on Mon. This is a joke - why cant we get that sort of stuff in June/July where it belongs, and actually fills the dams rather than cause algal blooms in the river?
This is supposed to be a Mediterranean climate - HOT, DRY summers!
I'm never going to able to hassle my Melbourne friends re their weather ever again.
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/01/2006 18:22

WOW ! at the latest track EC model has Daryl taking !!!!

http://radar.strikeone.net.au/?fuseaction=loops.ecmwf%20%20%20&modelID=2&modelType=14

This looks like one of the best chances Perth has had to get a TC in more than a decade!!! it has it going around NW Cape as a rather intense system on Monday then heading south Monday night...THEN Accelerating SE towards the SW on Tuesday night / Wed Morning !! if that happens Perth *COULD* go on a TC WARNING!!

Just a shame it's 6 days out... :p

See what happens !

JJ
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/01/2006 23:23

A hell of a lot can happen between now and Monday. As we all know, every summer we get teased by these models only to find all of the action happens about 150km inland.
Nevertheless, it is still bloody hard not to get excited when you see the potential. laugh
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/01/2006 23:32

Originally posted by Tim S:

The OCF for next Monday and Tuesday looks good too, predicting accumulations of around 100mm for the Perth area!

Why do the models even suggest such rediculous figures such as 100mm, we all know that isn't going to happen. :rolleyes:
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/01/2006 00:57

BOM Forecast for Perth only mentions 'becoming cloudy' for Monday / Tuesday next week. Expect the forecast to read somthing along the lines of "forecast is largly dependant on the movement of TC Darryl" as the week progresses.
Posted by: radar

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/01/2006 12:13

Quote:
Originally posted by Jason:

Why do the models even suggest such rediculous figures such as 100mm, we all know that isn't going to happen.
How quickly you forget the rains from TC Clare. I reckon the people of Lake Grace would probably have a different opinion. Meteorologically and geographically speaking Perth didn't miss out by much so I don't see why it would never happen. One day it will. Whether that day is next week only time will tell.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/01/2006 16:31

another day of low 30's if lucky... ahh the days last year when we had 37 days in a row..... nd it was dry heat too!
Posted by: radar

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/01/2006 15:46

UK Met puts TC Daryl just west of Perth on Monday night as a moderate strength cyclone. We'll find ourselves on a cyclone warning if that was to eventuate. All models are putting the TC somewhere near the west coast Monday night and Tuesday so if nothinbg else there should be more rain in store for us.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/01/2006 19:20

Yeah as you said, most of the models are aggreeing that the cyclone or remnants of will come close to Perth, I certianly hope it does. OCF forecast has uped the rainfall prediction again after dulling it down in the last couple of runs, back up to 60mm for Perth. Also the metro forecast has 'possible rain' developing on monday smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/01/2006 19:55

windy with showers on tuesday
where are our 40 degree temps... adelaide??!!!!!
'
i tend to wonder with these rainfall predictions... last time they predicted alot and we got 19 mm

oh well bring on the wet weather!
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/01/2006 22:22

BOM going for chance of Thundery Shower tomorrow morning...

FORECAST:
Chance of a thundery shower in the morning. Otherwise fine. Cooler tomorrow.
S/SW winds, fresh to strong in the afternoon.

TEMPERATURES: Minimum: 18 Maximum: 27
UV INDEX: 12 [EXTREME]

FIRE DANGER: Coastal Plain: VERY HIGH
Hills: VERY HIGH

The overnight minimum was 15.2 at 0554 hours
Today's maximum was 32.2 at 1138hours

A middle level disturbance could cause a brief thundery shower early Saturday
morning. Otherwise expect fine conditions through to Monday night. Strong sea
breezes are likely tomorrow. Saturday should be cooler due to the earlier sea
breeze. A few showers may develop Monday night and continue Tuesday.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/01/2006 00:29

I want a refund on my summer.

TOo bloody cold to go to the beach after work because of the seabreeze.

And its freaking 20th January.

Not Happy Jan!!!
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/01/2006 16:11

Quote:
Originally posted by Turbo:
BOM going for chance of Thundery Shower tomorrow morning...

FORECAST:
Chance of a thundery shower in the morning. Otherwise fine. Cooler tomorrow.
S/SW winds, fresh to strong in the afternoon.

TEMPERATURES: Minimum: 18 Maximum: 27
UV INDEX: 12 [EXTREME]

FIRE DANGER: Coastal Plain: VERY HIGH
Hills: VERY HIGH

The overnight minimum was 15.2 at 0554 hours
Today's maximum was 32.2 at 1138hours

A middle level disturbance could cause a brief thundery shower early Saturday
morning. Otherwise expect fine conditions through to Monday night. Strong sea
breezes are likely tomorrow. Saturday should be cooler due to the earlier sea
breeze. A few showers may develop Monday night and continue Tuesday.
yeah and that never happened too!
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/01/2006 16:12

can anyone from the bom explain this lame excuse for a summer?!
Posted by: Twisters

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/01/2006 16:31

WEll it just That

One Your Heat troughs arent forming enough or they are but well inlnad of perth instead of off the coast
Two the High is sitting to perths SW instead of in the BIght which is good for us but bad for u as it drives up lots of cool warm SSW winds

It is mainly the highs i think they have stayed well SSW of y prvideing S SW winds all summer and looks like it will contuine into next month u poor guys

I am sure i have missed somthing so others please add that is all i know

I havent had a day below 30c since christmas day lol smile

Twister
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/01/2006 21:50

You know when your in Perth when the sea breeze is hitting 44 knots at Rotto and 35 knots on the coast.. excellent if you keep away from the beach smile
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/01/2006 22:47

Melbourne going for a min temp of 27 tonight and a max of 43 tommorrow, was 41 today there too. I'd say they have probably had a hotter summer than us so far.
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/01/2006 23:07

OCF rain forecast for Tuesday has gone from 9mm to 91mm.
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/01/2006 02:40

Hopefully it comes off !!
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/01/2006 18:20

Well it looks as though it wont be anywhere near as good as rain event as first thought though it does look fairly promising for storms for Perth from late tommorow arvo, with some showers as well. Totals looks like being around the 10mm mark for perth with the heavier falls nearer the SW capes.

Today is a great typical Perth summers day, nice and warm, low humidity and not a cloud in the sky, well maybe a few but nothing overhead, the only thing untypical is it looks as though we wont get a seabreeze, though the coast may get a weak one later.
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/01/2006 19:58

Quote:

Today is a great typical Perth summers day, nice and warm, low humidity and not a cloud in the sky, well maybe a few but nothing overhead, the only thing untypical is it looks as though we wont get a seabreeze, though the coast may get a weak one later.
And it has been a rare treat this summer!

Looking forward to a good swim at Cott after work, followed by fish and chips washed down with a chardonnay!
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/01/2006 23:16

Hey Ya'll...I got too 33.8 today.

Some may be interested, that I have in the past few weeks installed a 1-wire Temp sensor. My normal Temp sensor is on the south side of the house, in shade.
The new 1-wire Temp sensor is 5m in altitude below my main sensor, and about 25m away. It is situated on the edge of 10 hectares of playing fields, which, on average gets a frost 5-10 times per winter.
It's kinda and experiment to see what the effect of altitude, all be it a small amount, and open space plays on Max and mainly min Temp. readings.

The Max on the 1-wire sensor so far seems to effected alot by the prevaling winds at the time. Here in Floreat, as is Swanbourne (the Swany station is only 2 mins drive from here) I have not had any huge max Temps yet........Hang on neither has Perth Metro!!!LOL :p Soo.....the "Oval Temp" as I call it, has not been too disimilar the normal station temp this summer. Winter Mins will be VERY interesting tho!

Hope we get some rain this week smile

You can view details of my station at http://weatherstation.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IWAPERTH3

No "Oval Temps" on it yet.

Details on 1-wire sensors are here. www.hobby-boards.com/catalog/index.php?cPath=22

These are fantastic, easy to run, install, (Follow the "general installation and use" section) and very cost efective.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/01/2006 02:14

sure is warm at 11pm 28

yes nice dry heat today.. air con actually worked in this heat.

35 is now 37 tomorrow though if we get ne winds we could get to 40

WA Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for February to April 2006, issued 24th January 2006
50:50 chances for a wetter than average season
The chances of accumulating at least median rain during the late summer to mid-autumn period (February to April) are close to 50% across Western Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. The outlooks are based on relationships between Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures and Australian rainfall. Recent ocean temperatures have not been sufficiently warmer or cooler than average to produce a strong bias in rainfall outlook odds.


For the February to April period, the chances of above median rainfall are between 50 and 60% over WA (see map).


WA Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for February to April 2006, issued 24th January 2006
50:50 chances for increased seasonal temperatures
Although the odds favour a warmer than average season in parts of northern Australia, in Western Australia the chances of exceeding the median maximum temperature for the February to April period are close to 50%, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. The outlooks are based on relationships between Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures and Australian rainfall. Recent ocean temperatures have not been sufficiently warmer or cooler than average to produce a strong bias in temperature outlook odds.

For the February to April period, the chances that seasonal maximum temperatures will be higher than the median are mostly between 45 and 55% across WA, the exceptions being the far north where the chances are a little over 55%, and the eastern interior where they drop below 45% (see map).


source ww.bom.gov.auhttp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/temp.wa.shtml
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/01/2006 12:02

Vinny, I'd say Perth has a good chance of hitting 40, the NE'ly are in! Here in Gero yesterday the temp hit 40.1 and about 6pm last night got a nice storm that dumped around 12mm. Perth radar's looking very good ATM. Not sure Gero's in the firing line today though, winds already NW.
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/01/2006 14:57

I now withdraw my previous statement!
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/01/2006 16:04

its pathetic perth can't get hotter than 38 this summer and melbourne and adelaide has had 40+ numerous times....

seabreeze has kicked in noway near 37 today mad

grrrrrr.....
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/01/2006 16:29

This summer Melbourne has had is very atypical - sometimes they go for 2-3 summers in a row without a single 40!

I clearly remember sitting at the MCG on Boxing Day 1993, when it rained until about 4pm, and the max temp was something like 12!
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/01/2006 22:24

So much,so much rain fallen in the Rockingham/Mandurah area...some thunder and lightning...

Very different to what it was like in the city today...

Nice to see such soaked roads in Mandurah, over 53mm have fallen in Mandurah since 9:00am
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/01/2006 00:30

And the best of it seems like it will miss the hills where I am frown Not feeling very hopeful for a good total at the moment.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/01/2006 00:46

such heavy rainfall in success/atwell/beeliar areas though weatherzone says 13.4 i would say about 25mm

all flooded out on the pavers out back.

2 hours ago whilst it was raining in the jandakot area i got a call from someone in ocean reef area and it was not raining... weird how it falls
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/01/2006 01:25

Quote:
Originally posted by vinny:

2 hours ago whilst it was raining in the jandakot area i got a call from someone in ocean reef area and it was not raining... weird how it falls
We've had 15mm here by 10pm, not far from Ocean Reef.

Nothing like the 60 odd they have had in Mandurah though!
Posted by: tekNique

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/01/2006 09:46

Quote:
Originally posted by vinny:
its pathetic perth can't get hotter than 38 this summer and melbourne and adelaide has had 40+ numerous times....

U dont want it beleive me, after 4 days we had enough. U can only go to the beach so many times in extremes like that. By the second day the sun heat/dryness is to much and u cant even venture outside.
Posted by: Twisted Kris

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/01/2006 14:48

Quote:
Originally posted by vinny:
such heavy rainfall in success/atwell/beeliar areas though weatherzone says 13.4 i would say about 25mm

all flooded out on the pavers out back.

2 hours ago whilst it was raining in the jandakot area i got a call from someone in ocean reef area and it was not raining... weird how it falls
34mm in Beeliar 'on the top'. Heaviest shower was around 21:30, very tropical!!!! just like being in Tully!
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/01/2006 14:57

very muggy too today
i would say about 35mm too
actaully i meant iluka which was just north of ocean reef.. the person said no rain when it was bucketing down here

the rain last night reminded me of when i was in bundaberg

and this humidity is so high eek

interesting to note that the watercorp has adjusted the rainfall amounts for each month though they stilll add up to 859?

9 12 20 44 120 179 171 135 81 53 22 13 859

i am sure january is 10mm
and march is 19mm
Perth has received 32.6mm of rain so far this Summer, compared to the Summer rainfall average of 34mm


smile smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/01/2006 16:19

is this normal forperth in january?

sunday 14/22 confused
monday 12/23 confused

are temps this month below the average, does anyone have any data to show this?

can someone explain this to me?
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/01/2006 16:44

I have to say I'm enjoying this weather a LOT...knowing the heat could be just around the corner.

Feb is well known to be a very hot month with heatwaves. I wouldn't be surprised if we get 40C next month.

So while we have this mild weather enjoy it! At least you can do outdoor activities in it. Not pleasent to be outside when it's 40C +.

JJ
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/01/2006 16:47

Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/01/2006 18:07

I was wondering when someone was going to crack smile
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/01/2006 22:41

22c

Geeze, please let it be hot...our spring weather in late January is severely getting to me...

Lets hope we have a hot February and March, the last thing I want is a one month summer!!
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/01/2006 22:43

Quote:
Originally posted by sandgroper:
Quote:
Originally posted by vinny:
[b]
2 hours ago whilst it was raining in the jandakot area i got a call from someone in ocean reef area and it was not raining... weird how it falls
We've had 15mm here by 10pm, not far from Ocean Reef.

Nothing like the 60 odd they have had in Mandurah though! [/b]
Steady, consistent and at times very heavy rain for about 5 hours produced that nice total.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/01/2006 00:12

looks like mandurah has had more rain than this time last year and perth too, dam levels are way up there from this time last year

the bom reckons 45 percent chance that we will get above average temps in the next 3 months so i don't know about hot feb and march confused

For the February to April period, the chances that seasonal maximum temperatures will be higher than the median are mostly between 45 and 55% across WA, the exceptions being the far north where the chances are a little over 55%, and the eastern interior where they drop below 45% (see map).

sourced from bom website
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/01/2006 13:05

sorry perth people expect a return t o below average temps all week with no temps so far expected to be average ie 18/31


Windy
14C - 22C

Monday

Windy
12C - 25C

Tuesday

Sunny
14C - 28C

Wednesday

Sunny
16C - 29C

Thursday

Sunny
16C - 29C

Friday

Sunny
16C - 30C

Saturday

Sunny
16C - 29C
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/01/2006 21:24

Quote:
Originally posted by Egan:
the last thing I want is a one month summer!!
A one month summer is better than a no month summer, which is what we look like getting.
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/01/2006 21:39

Yeah, we can only wait to see if Feb and March will end up being scorchers.

I have noticed that showers are staring to develop and are moving in from the south east with the south east winds, weird. confused
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/01/2006 01:16

yeah south easterlies seem to be here a lot lately sounds like queensland when they get rain .. they produce the rain in qld but not in w.a?
Posted by: troughline

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/01/2006 20:50

Speak'n of the south easterlies - Lake Grace another 30mm overnight bring'n their monthly total for January to 291mm - crazy!!
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/01/2006 01:04

Coldest summer in 83 years...

Yep, the refund docket is in the mail...after a very wet winter and spring, the last thing we needed was a mild and wet summer.
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/01/2006 11:32

Quote:
Originally posted by troughline:
Speak'n of the south easterlies - Lake Grace another 30mm overnight bring'n their monthly total for January to 291mm - crazy!!
That would have to be pretty close to their annual average!
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/02/2006 02:34

yes ... another pathetic excuse for a summers day in perth.... was 17 degrees at 9pm when i woke up

even if feb and march are hot like normal what kind of a summer is 8 weeks long that is not meditteranean that is like some part of nz's climate mad
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/02/2006 13:07

This has simply been the most crappy, disappointing summer in my living memory. I could almost handle the ordinary December if things got their act together in Jan ( and there was some promise early on) but the cold, windy weather has largely persisted (a few days like the 23rd excepted).
One would think that if you booked a weekend in Dunno in the last week of Jan you would be able to spend at least 1 day on the beach. However it was freezing and windy, and not beach weather at all, even at bloody Meelup.
The worst thing about all this is the clown(s) at the BOM predicting a hot summer. Yes I know that this is not an exact science, but one would think that if such a prediction were made, the worst case scenario would be an average summer, not the worst sodding one in 83 yrs! It is obvious that the BOM knows jack s*** about these things, so it would be better to stop making these calls rather than make totally wrong ones.
I would have gone over east for Christmas, rather than have the rellies come here, if they had not made that call.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/02/2006 02:26

Mate, just thank our lucky stars that despite our much loved heat dissapearing...

We still have a magnificent city to enjoy, and when its hot Perth is far better city to be in then Melbourne, Sydney is. We are a city designed for hot weather and we definately in depression...but it is a freak weather event that is hard to judge, worst summer in 83 years is hard to fathom and accept.

But just think, these eastern staters love and rejoice in the summer temperatures we have...and we complain...luckily our colder temperatures is a freak weather event (I hope) Please never let this summer be repeated again.

Come on Weather Patterns, your reducing us Perthites to tears with our weather...its been horrible...IMO coming home with wind at about 40-50kmh in Golden Bay.

St Georges Terrace my hat blew off with a fierce south easterly...this is not right.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/02/2006 02:31

Whats worse I think, that has made us so damn annoyed...is that we had a very cold and wet winter and spring, and we were looking forward to a hot summer.

In previous years we have not had the length of winter and spring, I mean in March we had a maximum temperature fo 14c one day...

If we had of had a dry and mild winter and spring 20-30c for 5-6 months we would not have been worried.

But we had a wet, cold miserable winter, followed by a wet, cool spring followed by a wet cool summer...

Is this pattern going to continue?
Posted by: David

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/02/2006 07:52

This Summer has seen more highs in the Tasman less in the bight more fronts in WA and more troughs in eastern Australia resulting in above avarage tempertures for SA,VIC,TAS,NSW,QLD and below normal in southern WA. These types of summers have got to happen every once and while. I can remember quite a few summers were we have had frequent cool southwesterly while Perth has been baking hot.

It will only be a matter of time until the pattern changes again and high becoming more persistent in the bight giving you guys warm NE winds.

David laugh
Posted by: bulldog

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/02/2006 10:41

who said its so hot over east

january averages PERTH 28.8
MELBOURNE 27.7
SYDNEY 27.0
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/02/2006 00:41

we may reach 40 this month i hope!
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/02/2006 12:50

If it doesn't i'm moving up north. :p
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/02/2006 22:02

i think we'll have to wait and see
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/02/2006 12:38

Hey Yo, is anyone wanting to chase today? just around Perf, LI and CAPE is not looking the best I spose, but the sheer is looking quite good?
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/02/2006 12:48

Quote:
Originally posted by Chaser80:
Hey Yo, is anyone wanting to chase today? just around Perf, LI and CAPE is not looking the best I spose, but the sheer is looking quite good?
Yeah it is looking good, already some development to the north and north east. I will prolly head out when I finish work around 5ish. When are you planning on going out and where?
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/02/2006 15:32

Ill write to tell you in half hour. Ill call you too
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/02/2006 16:05

Yo Tim. Would go out to York/Northam way to intercept em if it is worth it....tho at this stage Im still not sure? Storms will be heading due south for the most period today, even SS/W, Radar looking good. Tho still kinda patchy. Im gonna go to my lookout to have a better look at these clouds now....will call you from there.
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/02/2006 16:16

An update on Geraldton, even though this is all about Perth. Sitting on 40.8C, warming almost 2C in 10min and stilll the wind fresh from the NE. Also some nice shower activity to our north. Hope it travels south for you guys, the heat that is. Surprised that Perth is only 33C, should warm up a little more this afternoon, maybe to 36C?
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/02/2006 16:36

Dude have you looked at the Gerro Radar??? Whow!!

Exploding everywhere

storms on the WZ radar hitting red. coming from the N/E towards town.
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/02/2006 18:32

Did have some rain not to long ago, it's clearing again though and warming too. Still the radar does look quite impressive, hope to see more rain about before I leave work.
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/02/2006 20:48

Surprise, we actually have got some more rain. Officially only 0.2mm at the AP but here in town I would say closer to 5mm. Still very warm and humid. Looks as if Perth will get a little bit overnight.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/02/2006 21:00

hmm can't even get to 37c...what the hell is going on?

Got to 34.5...didnt find it repressive heat at all...
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/02/2006 23:02

here we go pple. Look at the radar!
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/02/2006 23:07

yes its looking pretty good.

Pity nothing happening down here yet...although we have had the best out of the past two summer storms laugh
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/02/2006 23:11

Starting to see some lightning now, looks like it will turn into more than just a shower or two.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/02/2006 01:11

17.6mm exceeds our monthly average in 3 hours...not a drop here during that time though...

Continues our wierd wierd summer...we hardly ever get rain during our summer storms...well nothing like the amount we have got during this summers storms.
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/02/2006 01:28

Had a thunderstorm pass directly over here with heavy rain. The rainfall heading into the orange at one stage, a few close lightning strikes too and a couple of very loud thunder claps which sounded more like explosions. laugh
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/02/2006 01:40

Hmm nice, no thunder, lightning...about 20seconds of drizzle...

We missed out this time...good to see some had some good storms...
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/02/2006 02:00

Nothing down south yet frown
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/02/2006 08:58

Whoohoo, 28mm in my gauge this morning. All fell in less than 2 hours between 8.30 and 10.30pm.. excellent! more than twice the monthly average..
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/02/2006 11:30

Quote:
Originally posted by Lert:
Whoohoo, 28mm in my gauge this morning. All fell in less than 2 hours between 8.30 and 10.30pm.. excellent! more than twice the monthly average..
28mm!! good to see your still stealing everyones rain! smile

Only got 8mm at my place and I am probably no more than 5kms from yah, amazing variation. I had a feeling you would get a fair bit more though, the thunderstorm that was producing the best lightning seemed to pass directly over your area.
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/02/2006 11:56

We got 20mm at Iluka, obviously the rain was very patchy.
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/02/2006 12:00

Yeah Tim, The lightning/thunder delay was only 1 or 2 seconds at times and the rain was very heavy for quite a long period. Pity was I could not see any CG as the visibility was very poor also had the computer off so not much idea what was going on at all..

BTW.. its 8km between you and I.
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/02/2006 12:23

Had a nice storm over Gero last night around 1am, very heavy rain, not much in the way of thunder/lightning but the ground is saturated. Only 3.4mm at the airport though???? Might need to get a rain gauge, I'm sure we had more than that!
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/02/2006 12:33

I finished up with 12.4mm. Had 200 lightning strikes within a 100km radius or so.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/02/2006 12:47

gee the humidity is 76 percent ... qld weather?!!

anyway got aout 17-18mm here in success , with all of it coming down last night. None today to record but very muggy. Have to tell me parents to turn off the aircon as it doesn't work in humid conditions.

well 2 months now of good rains so far we have had the eq of jan and feb's rainfall in january and now our rainfall must be eq of jan-march.

i would say we have had above the average for summer rains ie 34mm.

wonder if winter will be dry??? lets hope not

just checked we have had 51.4mm this summer
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/02/2006 12:55

seemed that everyone got more than me, typical! Though this time the Mandurah missed out, fair enough too, they hogged all the rain last time smile

200 strikes aint bad, specially for Perth. I only saw about 20 or so of them, some very close ones though, with that lovely whip cracking sound! smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/02/2006 13:19

not much lightning near me but just ocassional thunder every couple of minutes
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/02/2006 13:38

You all got a soaking compared to us down here - 0.6 is all we got frown
Posted by: bulldog

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/02/2006 19:55

your lucky silvercloud i had 0.3 and collie east had zilch
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/02/2006 20:07

Quote:
Originally posted by Tim S:
[QB] seemed that everyone got more than me, typical! Though this time the Mandurah missed out, fair enough too, they hogged all the rain last time smile
And had another big rain event a few months beforehand...when we had a real torrential downpour for 20mins...We were due to miss out on this one...
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/02/2006 00:41

I just happened to be driving home from a meeting in the city to the hills right about the time of the downpour and it was a bit of hairy ride with the roads and gutters awash. Up here in the hills we had 15mm.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/02/2006 23:18

looks like 36 on monday... when we will get 40 or if that wll happen is still not certain?
Posted by: ben01

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/02/2006 23:38

Im hoping we dont get 40 at all...... sorry to all the heat lovers smile


Think im dreamin tho....
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/02/2006 14:41

Could we please make this thread a winge free zone, there is a whole thread dedicated to this useless pastime so save it for that?! This is a good thread for discussing real weather scenarios in and around Perth and it doesnt benefit from mindless winging posts.

Okay rant over...
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/02/2006 18:56

Some very nice storms on the gero radar, one thats gone into the red about 75km SE of Gero. Should be a good weekend for storms in that general area, though I have a feeling we wont have to go as far as Gero to expereince them on both days of the weekend, with some good storm conditions forecast from about Moora North and East.

Then when all this fizzles out, should get some nice and warm days, with Tuesday forecast to reach 38C, though this will depend greatly on the timing of the trough, eastern suburbs should reach 40C though if it sticks to its plan.
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/02/2006 20:05

Yeah Tim, been watching them this afternoon, at work we had an outside broadcast so was able to keep an eye on it, looked great! Going to past well east of Gero though. Love to see another storm come through like the other night.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/02/2006 16:00

Hey we got all sorts out there ATM. Storms to the south Rockingham-Mandurah, and up to the north east! Hope some can passs round Perf in the next few days:) Lightnig Det not picking anything up as yet...tho looking at the updraughts they dont look too severe. Anyone down Rockingham way confirm? Egan you had any weather?
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/02/2006 16:14

hehehe been pouring for last 40 mins...so unexpected...come back since we missed out completely on the rain a few days ago...some massive claps of thunder all morning, some of our gutters is over-flowing.

I would say over 5mm has been raining for about 30mins non stop...looking at the radar the storm is still developing as well...moving slowly, could get some impressive figures.

Some very big puddles on the ground...would expect up to 10mm to have fallen here by the time the storm passes...

But yes very un-expected weather here in Golden Bay, basically the storms worst has been here, looking at the radar...right in the middle between Rockingham and Mandurah.

I win again on the storm front :p
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/02/2006 16:18

Just to tell you the limited area that is being hit by this storm.

Only Golden Bay, Secret Harbour, Singleton, Madora Bay, Meadow Springs, Lakelands, Karnup, San Remo are being hit at the moment in the worst of the storm...

Still raining...
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/02/2006 16:30

aNY LIGHTNING??
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/02/2006 16:36

Egan: Your'e in Perth's own storm alley down there, yah lucky little so and so! smile Storms(?) are slow slow moving atm, which is reflective of the slow steering winds and such. Makes them good for chasing, but I cant decide to A) whether to chase or not and B) where to go?

Some very nice ones out to the north-east but they are a bit far for me to chase today. I will leave that area for tomorrow, when I expect them to be slightly stronger/better. I hope anyway smile

GPATS is finally showing some lightning to the east and north of Perth, bout 100-200km away.
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/02/2006 16:36

How are the southern suburbs getting showers/storms. Usually in this situation when the seabreeze is in and the trough is inland, one would expect showers and storms to be to the east.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/02/2006 16:39

Hmm not that I saw, the rains finally stopped...

Didn't see any lightning...its more a rain and thunder event...maybe Monday Night will be Perths turn.

Was the trough to blame for the storm, would rain in this area have been impossible for BOM to predict (it did hit some of Perth's metro area, so could have stated storm in southern suburbs if it knew it was going to hit)

Or was it a freak of nature storm, because it gave me a heart-attack hearing thunder and a rain cloud before the rain event...seeing as I expected it to be a fine hot day...its pretty humid now...

Anyways adds to the wet summer...been very interesting to say the least...I must say it is good not to have the same old same old summer in some sence...brings a little variety to life.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/02/2006 16:43

Take that back, BOM forecasted rain in the southern suburbs

Fine and partly cloudy apart from a brief shower this afternoon in southern
suburbs

But it wasn't brief...

Seabreeze was not in when the storm hit, and the storm came from the north east...the sea breeze comes in far later when we have the Easterly winds...sometimes not till 4-5:00pm
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/02/2006 16:47

Yeah, interesting that, the other night the BOM had forecasted a thundery shower, but it ended up to be a storm here with half an hour of heavy rain. Although it does make a change from being dissapointed by the weather forecast as BOM would usually forecast showers or storms which sometimes wouldn't eventuate, but lately it seems to be the other way around. smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/02/2006 16:53

I think it might have something to do with the trough, I remember schultzy saying the tail of the trough was going to get dragged east by the front, maybe instead of that happening it got detatched from the main heat trough or formed into sort of a 'J' shape extended along the ranges then around the southern suburbs?
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/02/2006 16:55

Quote:
Originally posted by Tim S:


Some very nice ones out to the north-east but they are a bit far for me to chase today. I will leave that area for tomorrow, when I expect them to be slightly stronger/better. I hope anyway smile

Golden Bay is only 45 mins south of Perth if you drive on the freeway on the weekend...I'll be laughing if all the action is down here again tommorow...although I will be in the city for most of the day anyways

Bickley has recorded 1.2mm and Garden Island 4mm
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/02/2006 17:04

Quote:
Originally posted by Egan:
Quote:
Originally posted by Tim S:
[b]

Some very nice ones out to the north-east but they are a bit far for me to chase today. I will leave that area for tomorrow, when I expect them to be slightly stronger/better. I hope anyway smile

Golden Bay is only 45 mins south of Perth if you drive on the freeway on the weekend...I'll be laughing if all the action is down here again tommorow...although I will be in the city for most of the day anyways

Bickley has recorded 1.2mm and Garden Island 4mm [/b]
I wont be laughing! though I think if anything does eventuate it will be 10 times better out there. smile

Another reason for the storms down there today could be the trough splitting into two or it might have nothing to do with a trough and be totally driven by the upper levels.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/02/2006 17:04

Quote:
Originally posted by Tim S:
I think it might have something to do with the trough, I remember schultzy saying the tail of the trough was going to get dragged east by the front, maybe instead of that happening it got detatched from the main heat trough or formed into sort of a 'J' shape extended along the ranges then around the southern suburbs?
It was very localised though...looked to have started around Mundijong/Baldivis and then head south west and intensify...it started off smaller and got much larger.

But thats a good explanation...it just only hit a few suburbs...has now weakened considerably and is basically stationery on the northern suburbs of Mandurah...the suburbs of Madora Bay, Meadow Springs, San Remo would have some very impressive figures...don't think much will be recorded at the Mandurah rain station though.

Looks like its going to fizzle out...the sun has broken through here as well...
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/02/2006 17:14

Sorry about my constant posting...but I have never seen rain dry up as quickly as it has done...

The entire area that was getting pounded by rain from the gutters, the large puddles that had been created...are as dry as anything...the only remnant is the soil that has been left on the pavement.

This is only an hour or so after over 8mm of rain fell here (now that I am being hit by all the summer storms am going to get a new weather gauge)

If anybody has any tips for which one to get pm me.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/02/2006 17:23

Quote:
Originally posted by Egan:
Sorry about my constant posting...but I have never seen rain dry up as quickly as it has done...

The entire area that was getting pounded by rain from the gutters, the large puddles that had been created...are as dry as anything...the only remnant is the soil that has been left on the pavement.

This is only an hour or so after over 8mm of rain fell here (now that I am being hit by all the summer storms am going to get a new weather gauge)

If anybody has any tips for which one to get pm me.
dont apoligise mate, its good to get an 'on the ground' report! smile

It amazes me how quickly the coastal plain drys up, Ive been through that area the day after Mandurah has had 50-100mm and it has looked bone dry. My partner is always amazed by this too, coming from NZ she isnt used to rain just dissapearing into the ground! smile
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/02/2006 17:30

Its amazing when we are not on any limestone...just plain beach sand...

Looking at the radar, the entire system has completely fizzled out...
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/02/2006 20:49

My god how is the ceel right now just near Goomalling? its houge, been in the Red for 3 frames now! another has formed right over Toodjay
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/02/2006 11:15

It was just a warm up for today mate! I hope smile

I dont know what has been happening in Lake Grace in the past few months, but there still getting bucket loads of rain, 38mm overnight from that rain band over inland areas! topping the list of the main rain sites.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/02/2006 00:49

weird this weather.....

this time last year

5mm for all of summer
51mm this year

got 37 numerous times last year even got to 42
this year only ocassionally i would say this is about the third mad time we have had 36-37 and it has actually happened... doesn't anyone else notice they once said 37 and we only got 32.

i have a bad feeling we will not see 40 or 42 this summer

lets hope we don;t get 11.5 degress freak this comingwinter like last year mad

dams at 37 percent got to 42 percent max so only 5 percent down
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/02/2006 01:52

I think we can forget about seeing any 40s this season, I doubt we'll even get another ton.

Hopefully we'll have a winter like '96 (wet but not excessively cold) followed by a warm dry spring which gets going in mid sept, and then a long hot summer like 1997-98. It would help make up for the disappointments of the last 6 months.
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/02/2006 11:25

31/16 here already in the Eastern Suburbs and it's only 8:15am!! It ill get around 38 maybe 40 out in the eastern suburbs today.

If you want heat move inland! You arn't going to get many VERY hot days living on the coast because you are the first to get the seabreezes when the trough goes inland. :p It may only reach 32C for a max on the coast but you only have to go 20-30kms inland and it gets in the high 30's - 40.

This summer has been a nice comfortable one and I've enjoyed it! Now I hope we get another early start to the winter rainfall like last year, which had our first strong front at the end of March laugh .

The dams definately need further topping up.
Posted by: David

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/02/2006 11:44

LOL you guys get one cooler then normal summer and you think you will never see 40+ days again.

Cooler then normal summers have to happen as well as warmer then normal summers to make up the avarage, it is normal.

David laugh
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/02/2006 11:45

yeah JJ, should be nice and warm out your way today, enjoy it smile

Today is a classic example of how a 'coast' 'city' and 'hills' forecast would be very useful addition to the BoM metro forecast.

with the rainfall, I had a look up around the Mogumber, bindoon area on the weekend and many of the lakes and even some of the streams are flowing out that way, even the bigger salt lakes have some considerable amount of water in them, which is amazing for February. If we even have a slightly below average winter we will see some good run off into the rivers and lakes and hopefully the dams. I have a photo of Lake Joondalup about 11months ago and it was pretty much completely empty whereas now only 1 month earlier in the season it is about 70% full!
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/02/2006 11:46

Quote:
Originally posted by David:
LOL you guys get one cooler then normal summer and you think you will never see 40+ days again.

Cooler then normal summers have to happen as well as warmer then normal summers to make up the avarage, it is normal.

David laugh
:rolleyes:

Not all of us David! smile
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/02/2006 11:53

If anyone here is living up in the hills, I was wondering what the level of Mundaring dam is? Is there any chance of it going over this year if we get a wet winter?
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/02/2006 12:27

Quote:
Originally posted by sandgroper:
If anyone here is living up in the hills, I was wondering what the level of Mundaring dam is? Is there any chance of it going over this year if we get a wet winter?
Have a look for yourself here:
Dam levels

Its about the highest it has been at this time of year for 6 years I think, so theres a good chance.
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/02/2006 12:37

If ya like it hot, come to Gero! In the last 30 min we gone from about 34.5C to 37C. eek
We will hit 40C again today easily. cool
Not sure why Perth is quite cool this summer, up here certainly getting our fair share. confused
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/02/2006 13:09

34C in Perth and 36C out at Pearce by 10am!

Gero seems to be on the northern fringe of the cool SW summer, so yah just escaped it Stokesy! smile
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/02/2006 14:05

Ah........no we won't! The seabreeze arrived in around 10:30am, now it's the humidity which will be a problem.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/02/2006 15:01

I am not looking forward to sleeping next week.

Bom have a min temp of 104 & 106 degrees laugh

You might to take a look before the typo is fixed laugh
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/02/2006 16:39

Just hit 40C at 1:30pm WST here in Jane Brook !! HOT HOT HOT! wink
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/02/2006 22:24

Quote:
Originally posted by sandgroper:
If anyone here is living up in the hills, I was wondering what the level of Mundaring dam is? Is there any chance of it going over this year if we get a wet winter?
It would have to be a really wet winter, like 1996. That year I had nearly 300mm in June and nearlly 300mm in July - 600mm in two months! And August and Sept were good months too. In July I recorded 21 days straight with rain, and in June there was a 4 day period where 50mm fell every day (there was a big big low to the south that just kept spitting out cold-air thunderstorms, quite a memorable time) Thats a lot of rain. I saw plants flowering that year that I've haven't seen since. So for the dam to overflow I think we'd need it to be pretty wet on a consistant basis, and that doesn't happen all that often.
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/02/2006 22:27

Quote:
Originally posted by JuNgLeJiM:
This summer has been a nice comfortable one and I've enjoyed it! Now I hope we get another early start to the winter rainfall like last year, which had our first strong front at the end of March laugh
Hear, hear! I'll back you up with that one. I know I've made a few comments about the cold but on the whole I've enjoyed it, too.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/02/2006 00:34

Quote:
Originally posted by Blue Skies:
Quote:
Originally posted by sandgroper:
[b] If anyone here is living up in the hills, I was wondering what the level of Mundaring dam is? Is there any chance of it going over this year if we get a wet winter?
It would have to be a really wet winter, like 1996. That year I had nearly 300mm in June and nearlly 300mm in July - 600mm in two months! And August and Sept were good months too. In July I recorded 21 days straight with rain, and in June there was a 4 day period where 50mm fell every day (there was a big big low to the south that just kept spitting out cold-air thunderstorms, quite a memorable time) Thats a lot of rain. I saw plants flowering that year that I've haven't seen since. So for the dam to overflow I think we'd need it to be pretty wet on a consistant basis, and that doesn't happen all that often. [/b]
Something I have noticed, due to our wetter then usual winter and spring, we had flowers that i had never seen before spring up...shows how strong the native fauna is, because these popped up were weeds normally have a monopoly.

Loved the heat today laugh
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/02/2006 11:42

Quote:
Originally posted by Egan:
Quote:
Originally posted by Blue Skies:
[b]
Quote:
Originally posted by sandgroper:
[b] If anyone here is living up in the hills, I was wondering what the level of Mundaring dam is? Is there any chance of it going over this year if we get a wet winter?
It would have to be a really wet winter, like 1996. That year I had nearly 300mm in June and nearlly 300mm in July - 600mm in two months! And August and Sept were good months too. In July I recorded 21 days straight with rain, and in June there was a 4 day period where 50mm fell every day (there was a big big low to the south that just kept spitting out cold-air thunderstorms, quite a memorable time) Thats a lot of rain. I saw plants flowering that year that I've haven't seen since. So for the dam to overflow I think we'd need it to be pretty wet on a consistant basis, and that doesn't happen all that often. [/b]
Something I have noticed, due to our wetter then usual winter and spring, we had flowers that i had never seen before spring up...shows how strong the native fauna is, because these popped up were weeds normally have a monopoly.

Loved the heat today laugh [/b]
Well its been drizzling here for at least the last two hours pretty much non-stop, thats a start laugh smile

I have a feeling it will be a wet start to winter then it will dry out later in August, before some decent spring rains, pretty much what happened last year, though not as much rain I dont think. I am basing this mainly on the lateness of the seasons and usaully when this happens we get some good rains early in our wet season due to the leftover heat and humidity and the relative warmness of the indian ocean (though I am not sure about that this year, the surface sea temps have been below average for a solid 6+ months this year.

We have to remember now too that annual average rainfall for Perth is actually a fair bit above the shorter term average as the annual average has dropped by around 10-20% since the mid 70's, so years like last year and 96 are becoming the exception rather than the rule. Though saying that, theres nothing stopping us getting a wetter than average decade or two to even things out, its just a lot less likely than 50 years ago.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/02/2006 14:56

what the

yesterday 39
today max 24 and showers
frown

does anyone know what we are averaging temp wise this month??
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/02/2006 15:10

Quote:
Originally posted by vinny:
what the

yesterday 39
today max 24 and showers
frown

does anyone know what we are averaging temp wise this month??
:rolleyes:
about 1 winge a day I think smile
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/02/2006 16:05

Quote:
Originally posted by Tim S:
Quote:
Originally posted by vinny:
[b] what the

yesterday 39
today max 24 and showers
frown

does anyone know what we are averaging temp wise this month??
:rolleyes:
about 1 winge a day I think smile [/b]
Vinny is obviously another person who lives for summer, so is entitled to show his disappointment over this lost summer frown Better to do it in the anonymity of this forum than to drive family and friends crazy wink I have found my rants here to be quite therapeutic!

In answer to the average question, I haven't had a chance to do the math but I would guess that we would be pretty close so far; certainly better than Dec/Jan.

Yesterday was a rare gem though - beautiful balmy night, a full moon and a rare-as-hens-teeth dead calm down at the beach - had a wonderful Valentines picnic down at Mullas with my beautiful wife!
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/02/2006 19:14

Hmm it was a classic day...but noting Perths crappy summer it was inevitable we would have rain the next day.

So bloody humid in the shop I work at, despite the cooler weather.

Oh well lets just hope the Foxtel Rain Predictor is wrong, saw 5 consecutive days of rain from the 23rd-28th February.

Lets hope like always the thing is inaccurate...but normally you are lucky to see one of the rain days on the 28 day forecast of rain falling...
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/02/2006 19:16

I am not singling Vinny out with my anti-winge comments, even though he would be the most regular culprit.

My question is to you though Sandgroper, how does a discussion about Perth's weather benifit from aimless posts about how we are experiencing a cold summer etc. etc., surely this stuff would be better directed away from the worthwile posts of current obs and day to day weather experiences, which I know I personally look back on to help me remember what the weather was a few days or weeks ago. I am not the only one that feels this I am sure too, I have heard many opinions very similar to this from others on this forum, so I know I am not alone.

Is it too much to ask people post winges in the weather winge thread and not in a discussion thread about Perths weather?
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/02/2006 19:22

Perth's maximum temperature to 3:30pm was 21.6, which will make it their coolest February day since in 15 years if the temperature stays below 21.9 until 9am Thursday.

Seems like Perth will have its coldest February Day in 15 years...sorry Tim the whinging will begin in earnest again.

Highly unusual to see a 39c day drop to 21c...BOM are forecasting a very hot and unsettled start for next week...keeping everybody happy...
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/02/2006 19:31

Point taken Tim re using another thread.

Anyway, I am over whinging myself - I have written this summer off and am over it - as I said above, looking forward to (hopefully) good winter rains, with a REAL Perth spring and summer to follow.

On that point, are there any theories as to why Perth's rainfall has dropped off so much since the early 70's? The annual "average" has become more like the 90th percentile.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/02/2006 19:50

Just remember that whinging about the weather is about as useless as whinging about the government but not bothering to vote. smile

My main point is about constructive posts and the last two posts are great examples of actually saying something that others might be interested in, anyway enough on that matter, I dont want to sound like a whinger myself. laugh

The drop in max temp is impressive too, around 17C in a day which would be close to a record, though I think we have had a 20-22 after a 40C day before. Though I dont like our chances of keeping below 22C, the sun is even shining here! smile

As for theories about the decline in rainfall since the 70's, I could write you a book on my theories Sandgroper and they still might be all wrong! smile I think it has something to do with the vegetation decline in the SW corner in that period though and the positioning of the LWT in winter (the positioning of Lows/cold fronts)
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/02/2006 00:29

Quote:
Originally posted by Egan:
Perth's maximum temperature to 3:30pm was 21.6, which will make it their coolest February day since in 15 years if the temperature stays below 21.9 until 9am Thursday.

Seems like Perth will have its coldest February Day in 15 years...sorry Tim the whinging will begin in earnest again.

Highly unusual to see a 39c day drop to 21c...BOM are forecasting a very hot and unsettled start for next week...keeping everybody happy...
Now this is interesting. I was trying to think of a similar situation in February in my experience and couldn't remember one. A cool, cloudy day following a hot one, yes (but more like something I would expect in November) but rain? I would have to think it unusual. This is not to say it never rains in Feb, and I could point to you to several cold fronts in Feb in recent years, but is was colder than expected.

I got 1.5mm up here in the hills and the temp dropped all day - no rising, just dropping. Went from 22C at around 8am to 18.5C around 5pm. I'm not sure we even had a max today.

With all this moisture hanging around I'm looking forward to an interesting April/May.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/02/2006 11:50

Quote:
Originally posted by Blue Skies:
Quote:
Originally posted by Egan:
[b] Perth's maximum temperature to 3:30pm was 21.6, which will make it their coolest February day since in 15 years if the temperature stays below 21.9 until 9am Thursday.

Seems like Perth will have its coldest February Day in 15 years...sorry Tim the whinging will begin in earnest again.

Highly unusual to see a 39c day drop to 21c...BOM are forecasting a very hot and unsettled start for next week...keeping everybody happy...
Now this is interesting. I was trying to think of a similar situation in February in my experience and couldn't remember one. A cool, cloudy day following a hot one, yes (but more like something I would expect in November) but rain? I would have to think it unusual. This is not to say it never rains in Feb, and I could point to you to several cold fronts in Feb in recent years, but is was colder than expected.

I got 1.5mm up here in the hills and the temp dropped all day - no rising, just dropping. Went from 22C at around 8am to 18.5C around 5pm. I'm not sure we even had a max today.

With all this moisture hanging around I'm looking forward to an interesting April/May. [/b]
I am trying to remember the last time something similar happened myself. Mainly because I remember Schultzy saying, on Ch10 weather, that the record was something in the order of 20 degrees drop from one day to the next and that is very unusaul for perth to get such an extreme drop. Whereas in Melbourne drops like these are almost a common experience as there hot days are commonly followed by a cool wet and cloudy day, as anyone from Melbourne would know. smile

Would be interesting to see when it was and what caused it.

I managed to get 21.2C as a max yesterday, mainly because the position of my 'screen' isnt really affected by late afternoon heating, scored a massive 0.2mm too smile A bit of rain around on my way to work this morning too, though I somehow managed to dodge it all smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/02/2006 17:30

off topic... did anyone read in the west a ustralian about the stadium near success (cockburn central)

i suppose the cooler weather of last two months has kept the dams levels ok ie 36.8 percent now
desalination is not the answer water recycling would be far more efficent

i think this time last year we were going around the 27 and dropping percentages

anyway weatherwise.... i notice that a few of the storms that have been predicted have been written off but maybe next week?

still no 40's for perth yet mad

i think april may willbe like january this year and june juuly and august like last year

but june not 251mm i doubt
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/02/2006 17:37

Not quite a one-day drop, but on 23-25 February 1991 Perth Airport managed 46.7 (all-time record high), 28.2 and 19.8. A number of sites set February or all-time record highs on the 23rd followed by February record low max temps on the 25th, and Katanning's 14.6 was the third-lowest February max on record anywhere in WA (and the lowest since 1919).
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/02/2006 18:41

Wowzers! thanks for that Blair, well thats an 18.5C drop so that beats Tuesday-Wednesday anyway. That was an amazing day that 46C and I remember it clearly but i don't remember the cool day on the 25th, must have a better memory for highs smile We had a similar scenario last year in March, but over a longer period, ie. record high followed closely by record low, think it was like 5 days or something.

Any idea of the synoptic set up on those 3 days, unfortunatly its beyond the BoM's archived charts? I imagine it wouldn't have been too different to this weeks.
Posted by: Twisters

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/02/2006 02:49

Next week looking good guys wiuth heat troughoff the coast for a few days shoul see a few days of nice high temps enjoy been cool here
Posted by: ben01

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/02/2006 17:56

Quote:
Originally posted by Tim S:
My main point is about constructive posts and the last two posts are great examples of actually saying something that others might be interested in, anyway enough on that matter, I dont want to sound like a whinger myself. laugh
Think you've done a good enough job of that already.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/02/2006 12:28

Yeah whatever Ben.

Tuesday is looking very good for storms around Perth, LIs of around -2 to -3 a little bit of CAPE (around 600) and some fairly good shear added to the expected bucket loads of heating, 39C predicted Max, equals a very good chance for some decent storms around the perth Metro area as well as other places around the west coast. Including you Stokesy in Gero smile Now hopefully the models dont back down in the next 24 hrs or so...
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/02/2006 14:56

I thought it would warm up quicker 32 at 12pm

wondering about those storms predicted
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/02/2006 17:33

Feb heats up different to December & Jan Vinny.
Quiet often it starts out rather mild (around 24c at 9am) and takes a while to heat up, reaching the max around 4pm.

Around Christmas you will find hot days reach the max around 1pm, but feb and early march is a different story. There are many days I can remember in feb reaching 40c at 4:30pm.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/02/2006 18:22

I get the feeling the seabreeze isn't far away now. S'ly on the coast gusting to 20 knots, The E/ne wind around here is only just hanging on, it's more of a woft than a wind.

Will be interesting to see how far inland it gets. Forecast does only mention coastal.

I have to admit i love the feeling of being outside around 8pm when the seabreeze is replaced by a 33c Ne'ly wind. :p

The pool is gonna get a workout once i get home from work tonight. cool
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/02/2006 18:49

Quote:
Originally posted by Kirk:

The pool is gonna get a workout once i get home from work tonight. cool
Will most definitely be doing the same!
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/02/2006 20:20

And even hotter tomorrow...

FORECAST:
Fire Weather Warning issued.
Very hot. Possible thundery shower later tomorrow. Winds tending fresh NE'ly
overnight then easing during tomorrow and tending NW during the afternoon.

TEMPERATURES: Minimum: 22 Maximum: 39
Posted by: bulldog

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/02/2006 21:29

i think we will get our first 40 plus tomorrow followed by a nice thunderstorm in the arvo fingers crossed
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 09:13

this is mad!!!!!......its 6am and there are storms forming already over towards Pearce!
Got to a low of 24.8 at 23.18. Now sitting on 27.2!
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 10:18

Its looking awesome out there hey Tom, nice cu starting to build everywhere! I will be extremely surprised if we dont get 40 today, hey we only have 12 degrees to go! Should be heaps of storms about today, though hopefully they wait until the arvo when hopefully I can chase. smile

Oh and I got 23.2C at my place as a min, and that was at 10pm last night!
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 10:32

This is probably the last roll of the dice for a 40 this summer. Hopefully it comes off.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 10:49

I wouldnt say that sandgroper, we could have a 40 again within the next month or so.

Already up to 30C at 7:40am! smile
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 12:03

Quote:
Originally posted by sandgroper:
This is probably the last roll of the dice for a 40 this summer. Hopefully it comes off.
Far from it...we had 40's in March last year :p

It was around 30C at 10pm here last night...which jumped up from the low of 26C around 9:15pm.

Currently 31.7C here at 9am.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 12:37

34.3 here at 9.40
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 12:44

And it feels every bit of it out there! Just went for a walk to the shops, wowzers it was warm!

Those cells to the south west of Mandurah look good both on radar and in person. smile
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 13:01

35.5 at 9:30am here in Gero. Yeah Tim, would love to see some more storm action again! Sounds like Perth is in for some heat at last, should make 40 today.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 13:10

Nice and warm up there hey Stokesy, probably will be closer to 37C now? Dont know if Gero itself will get storms, though I would imagine you wouldnt have to go far inland to get them.

Dont like the look of the vis sat at the moment, nothing to the north of perth, though it is only 10am, so plenty of time left. smile

edit: 37.4C at 10am in Gero!
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 13:45

STW just issued smile

Quote:


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for Damaging Winds
For people in the south western Gascoyne, the Central West, Lower West and South
West Districts and adjacent parts of the Central Wheatbelt, Great Southern and
Southern Coastal Districts.
Issued at 10:40 am on Tuesday 21 February 2006

People are advised that there is a risk of severe thunderstorms during this
afternoon and evening.
Storms may be accompanied by strong winds that could result in damage to
property.

The FESA - State Emergency Service advises that people should be aware of
thunderstorms. As storms approach secure loose items and move vehicles under
cover. If lightning accompanies the storm disconnect non essential electrical
appliances and avoid using the phone. Stay indoors until the storms have
passed. If you are caught outside seek shelter away from trees and metal
structures. Driving conditions will be hazardous.

The next warning will be issued by 2:00 pm Tuesday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 213.
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 13:48

Bah come on Perth get into the action...

Yeah we will hit 40 today... its very hot outside... just came back from the city.. the clouds to the south / south east look great... soem good updrafts, the wind on st georges tce is very strong... lets hope we get a good down pour!!
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 14:09

The district forecast that was updated at 10:38am has a max of 41c for Perth now.
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 14:38

FORECAST:
Fire Weather Warning for today.
Very hot with a thundery shower or two today and at first tomorrow, with strong
squalls possible. Hot at first tomorrow with a humid change developing during
the day. Fresh NE winds, easing and tending W/NW during the afternoon, returning
moderate N/NE overnight before a W'ly change during tomorrow.


TODAY'S TEMPERATURE: Maximum: 41

Almost garenteed 40C+ today now :p
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 15:36

just reached 40 here!
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 15:53

Just hit 40.1C in the City at 12:43pm...FIRST 40C for the summer.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 15:56

Getting big drops of rain here! some awesome towering Cu overhead, seem to have sprung up in the last 30mins or so.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 15:58

Just in time as well, because the Nw'ly is in so that is todays max reached
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 16:21

just got a good rain shower (big drops) arround Lake Monger - City I was on the freeway north exit james and the roads were very wet... saw some rains... East of the city looks awsome!
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 16:26

This is a classic situation where we can't see any towers because it's all developing right over the top of us.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 16:53

9.8mm at Pearce and a 102km/hr gust! these are strong storms, Hope I can get out of work soon!
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 16:56

Just got a HUGE clap of thunder here in West Perth... sounded like it was VERY close... no effect on power smile The clouds to the north east are the BLACKEST I have seen in AGES! BRING IT ON!!
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 16:58

IDW28201
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for Destructive Winds
For people in the south western Gascoyne, the Central West, Lower West and South
West Districts and adjacent parts of the Central Wheatbelt, Great Southern and
Southern Coastal Districts, including the Perth metropolitan area.
Issued at 1:50 pm on Tuesday 21 February 2006

People are advised that severe thunderstorms are possible during this afternoon
and evening. Storms may be accompanied by strong winds that could result in
damage to property.

Severe thunderstorms have been observed on radar over northern suburbs of Perth
and are moving south. A wind gust of 102 kilometres per hour has been recorded
at Pearce.

The FESA - State Emergency Service advises that people should be aware of
thunderstorms. As storms approach secure loose items and move vehicles under
cover. If lightning accompanies the storm disconnect non essential electrical
appliances and avoid using the phone. Stay indoors until the storms have
passed. If you are caught outside seek shelter away from trees and metal
structures. Driving conditions will be hazardous.

The next warning will be issued by 3:00 pm Tuesday.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 213.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 17:07

Being in rivervale I am right on the edge of these storms. Hopefully we get some more develope slightly further west.
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 17:20

Well mate Perth has a very black (not grey but blue black) sky... the lightning has begun... not a lot but some very nice GC strikes... very nice white forks... Nice to finaly see!
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 17:30

Quote:
Originally posted by Rat from Perth:
Just got a HUGE clap of thunder here in West Perth... sounded like it was VERY close... no effect on power smile The clouds to the north east are the BLACKEST I have seen in AGES! BRING IT ON!!
I was up at the John Forest Lookout when those cells past over...VERY nice heavy rain! and lightning !! laugh Hail has been reported from Upper Swan !!! (6pr radio)

I'm hoping for a nice light show tonight! still getting some nice lightning and LOUD thunder at John Forest now! BRING IT ON!

Gonna be a steamy night tonight :p
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 17:40

Yeah but look at the radar maps on BOM... the cells are to the east of the city... (Although your in Jane Brook so you should be set... I am 15Kms north (wanaroo road) from the city frown I think tim lives near me...

The Radar images are showing some great action east, noth east and south east... but nothing over the city or to the west... although looking east from my window it looks GREAT!
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 17:41

my girlfriend is in Cannington (near the shoping centre) and is tellign me the rain is very heavy with HAIL... yes she is getting hail.. not sure how much though... but she said its a huge storm. She is of course lovign it... man I wish I was there right now!
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 17:43

100km/h gust at Perth Airport at 1424...looked awesome as it approached too! Huge Rain foot, looked like a rather strong microburst!
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 18:19

quietened down here for now frown got to be more comming!!
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 18:34

It seems like these cells are forming on the converging NE/NW air boundary.

I have never seen a radar like we have now eek on both Perth and Geraldton eek
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 18:41

So MUCH red on Perth Airport Radar!!!

http://radar.strikeone.net.au/?fuseactio...=0&dateFinish=0

I had 8.2mm here from the storm now a steamy 25/20
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 19:14

Gero's radar at 3:50pm this afternoon is amazing, still don't believe will have any rain in Gero itself, but the inland Central West will get a dumping. Good to see some action and a 40C day for everyone in Perth!
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 19:18

It's starting to really heat up outside. Feels like at least 33c, and the towers are starting further west this time laugh smile
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 19:41

Well theres a storm line developing out in the ocean as well...Looked brilliant in the city seeing such a black sky.

Hopefully we get some storms coming down this way...just wish it had been raining walking home...

Oh well, lets hope tonight we get some fairly decent storms.
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 20:14

Where's my man Vinny?

Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo a hot summer's day, woooooooooooo!
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 20:15

Yeah Vinny should be a happy boy!!!
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 20:20

A very impressive storm system has just popped up over Fremantle, some more cells being created...hopefully some start to develop further south.
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/02/2006 20:24

I was gonna go chasing, but have to play Vball. frown
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/02/2006 00:11

We just had a lovely lightning display with a bit of thunder and a bit of rain down here. I LOVE IT! Bring on more LOL

:cheers: Jules
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/02/2006 01:53

yay 40 degrees finally....

a very light shower this arvo but about 0.5mm no hail.

what a temp drop this afternoon
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/02/2006 01:55

Yeeeeehaaaaah!!! What a day! The sky just exploded in less than an hour around midday. I was north of Perth at Moore River in the morning and looked up at one stage to see small cumulus rocketing upwards, but it shifted eastwards as the NWer came in. When I finally got to head back towards Perth I could see some rain shafts beginning and by the time I got back to the office it was full-on lightning and rain covering most of the east. Some of the lightning I saw just seemed to pulse on the spot for 2 or 3 seconds. Got home in the hills to find it had poured down and 18.5mm in the rain gauge. Awesome day!
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/02/2006 11:33

Bully for all those who got rain/storms yesterday.. I guess I am too close to the coast cos although heard a fair bit of thunder not a drop fell here.

Hope thats going to change in the next hour or so with the juicy looking build-ups coming down from the north west..
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/02/2006 11:41

Yeah I just noticed them too, looking very good on the radar, some strikes recorded out that way too. I just hope they dont die before they make it to us.

Regarding yesterdays storms, very good storm day indeed, I went for a drive out Pearce way when I managed to get off work around 2, lots of pulsing Cgs and heaps of rain about, though unfortunatly had to come back to work so couldnt go too far. Got some nice mammatus and anvil cloud shots too, before I headed into the guts of the storms.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/02/2006 20:00

A real beasty storm out near new norcia atm, heading towards Toodyay, went into the brown on the WZ radar!
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/02/2006 12:55

hey i am new on this forum and new to perth aswell a nice welcome from the severe storms of the last 2 days thanks laugh laugh
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/02/2006 13:22

Welcome aboard Squid.. Just dont think that sort of thing happens every week (or month even) and you will get on fine smile

Where are you located in Perth ?
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/02/2006 14:19

Yeah, as lert says it can be a long time between storms over here, though you dont move to Perth for the storms, well at least I hope you didnt? smile
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/02/2006 01:55

Welcome Squid...

Don't expect as soon as autumn hits it becomes cold either...

Even through to mid -may we can get 27c weather...and then all of a sudden the cold hits suddenly...

Love seeing the Swan River going psycho from the cold front and storm tide...
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/02/2006 17:52

where i used to live in nz about march it gets cooler.. perth is great in that winter is short not counting last years cooler spring of course.

looks like a low will form next week and some wet weather...

i am wondering where i can find data that used to be on this website at certain times giving the average temp for peerth and rainfall... it used to be at the bottom when you checked the weather?
Posted by: ben01

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/02/2006 20:58

Anyone wanna give a long range prediction for March's weather?
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/02/2006 03:03

Hey has anyone seen the OFC forecast for the next week? http://australianweathernews.com/OCF/OCF_009.HTM 40+mm on wed????? surely not?
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/02/2006 03:45

Ben?

Surely nobody would be game to predict weather forecasts for Perth.

At this rate we could have a massive cold front and a Tropical Cyclone hit our city in the next month...such has been the wierdness of the weather.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/02/2006 10:54

Yeah saw that Tom, been revised down on the latest update, but still around 20mm, looks as though the best falls will be north and east of Perth too. Though its a while off yet and I am sure there will be some downgrading going on in the next few days, though I hope not too much.
Posted by: wiz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/02/2006 14:15

EC has the new cyclone just inland from Perth next week, the low is quite deep too. The only model that seems to be doing that at the moment though.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/02/2006 21:31

i am in mirrabooka looks interesting form next wednesday and thursday will i get to experience a perth cyclone???
Posted by: davo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/02/2006 22:50

I've kinda got my eye on the system following this one, but I guess first things first!
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/02/2006 02:34

Well, well well...Can I be called Notradamus?

Looking at next Saturday's computer model...it seems a massive Cold Front is heading our way in early March...

The wierdness of our weather continues...
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/02/2006 15:05

I am not sure that Perth will get that much out of this midweek low, almost all the models now have the bulk of the rain being at least 500km North-east of Perth. Though OCF has stuck to its guns which is fairly unusual in a situation such as this, expecially when the majority of the models are agreeing on low rainfall totals for Perth. OCF is still going for 20mm+ whereas all the models I can get hold of are going for 5mm maybe 10mm at best??

As for next weekend it does look fairly good, though it will be more a North-west cloud band than a front that will deliver the rain in a situation such as that. The mid lat lows are still very far south at this time of year.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/02/2006 15:29

Ahh ok, thanks for that...looked like a cold front...

Will be interesting to see the rain event on the weekend, which looks to be a bit more interesting...
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/02/2006 15:34

Quote:
Originally posted by Egan:
Ahh ok, thanks for that...looked like a cold front...

Will be interesting to see the rain event on the weekend, which looks to be a bit more interesting...
Well its not that it isnt a cold front, its just that at this time of year any cold front that makes it to Perth is fairly weak and it is the tropical moisture feed in the trough in front of the front that gets you wet here in Perth, not the front itself.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/02/2006 16:05

Mate, I don't know much about the technicalities of weather and so I am here to learn from people who know more then me...just I saw a massive intense system before they had updated on the site and it very

As a youngster (19 now) I was passionate about weather...my number one passion in life and wanted to be a weatherman when I was about 6-7, my passion isn't that great, but have a very keen interest in the radar images, TC (Used to live in the north-west)

So its more about learning about things (which I have done)

The TC is coming at the worst possible time, I can sit in front of the BOM radar screen for a whole day with a TC.

Oh well, just need to be more sleep deprives...
Posted by: troughline

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/02/2006 17:08

Hmm...looks like a cell north of Perth atm. No hint of rain or storms in the forecast though!
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/02/2006 17:21

Quote:
Originally posted by Egan:
Mate, I don't know much about the technicalities of weather and so I am here to learn from people who know more then me...just I saw a massive intense system before they had updated on the site and it very

As a youngster (19 now) I was passionate about weather...my number one passion in life and wanted to be a weatherman when I was about 6-7, my passion isn't that great, but have a very keen interest in the radar images, TC (Used to live in the north-west)

So its more about learning about things (which I have done)

The TC is coming at the worst possible time, I can sit in front of the BOM radar screen for a whole day with a TC.

Oh well, just need to be more sleep deprives...
I hope I didnt make you think that I was knocking your observations, I definitely wasnt doing that.

We are all learning about the weather, even the most experienced of us never stop, weather is something that you can never know everything you need to, there are so many different variables and scenarios that come into play with each weather event that you continously gain new knowledge.

I grew up with similar aspirations as you by the sounds of it Egan, I remember as a kid having my nose planted to the window whenever there was a storm. smile

Was there a particular weather event that sparked your interest in weather or was it something that gradually grew on yah?
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/02/2006 17:24

Yeah noticed those too troughy! look rather decent as well, There were storms forecast for the central west for today which is were they are, they dont seem to be moving towards us too fast so maybe they will stick to the forecast and only develop north of Lancelin, which I think is where the Central west starts. smile

edit: Just noticed the blob north of Pearce, only about 60km north of Perth, thats a lot closer smile
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/02/2006 17:53

It's a very isolated cell, won't be long before it starts to degrade, it might give us some cloud and hopefully combined with a seabreeze will help the players in tonights derby.

Go freo :p
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/02/2006 18:11

Here's the updated WA forecast, looks interesting over the next few days. smile

IDW1200003
PERTH AND METROPOLITAN:
Hot with the risk of an afternoon or evening squally thunderstorm. Moderate NE
winds before an afternoon sea breeze.

MONDAY'S FORECAST TEMPERATURES:
Perth: Min: 20 Max: 37
Mandurah: Min: 21 Max: 31

MONDAY'S UV INDEX: 11 [EXTREME]

MONDAY'S FIRE DANGER:
Coastal Plain: VERY HIGH
Hills: HIGH

HEADLINE: Hot. Thunderstorm risk.


MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR PERTH FOR:
Tuesday : Afternoon thunderstorm risk. Min: 22 Max: 38
Wednesday : Thundery rain. Min: 23 Max: 32
Thursday : Thundery rain clearing. Min: 19 Max: 29

TREND FOR FRIDAY, SATURDAY and SUNDAY:
Fine. About 30 Friday rising to mid 30s Saturday and Sunday.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/02/2006 18:32

not wanting to whinge but even if this warm weather continues to next nonth we still will go down as the place this year with one month of summer and two months of cool 1922/23 weather

i mean, our roses are just string to grow a lot when that should have happened about 8 weeks ago

one a nonwhingeing note dam levels are higher than this time last year and that is good
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/02/2006 00:18

Thanks for that Tim.

It was more about loving the weather forecasts, found it so interesting...just a general interest...I seem to have phases were I am obcessed with something for a few years it was weather...

And becoming a Weatherman seemed such a cool job, learning and talking about the weather...If I was smart enough would definitely think about becoming a Meteorologist...but there is many occupations I would like to do...

Warm day today, a very stormy summer...Mandurahs due for some good storms we have missed out the last few times.
Posted by: ben01

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/02/2006 00:19

And hopefully might get a liiitttllee bit higher with the storms predicted this week.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/02/2006 02:35

Perth: Min: 20 Max: 37
Mandurah: Min: 21 Max: 31

Geeze this would have to be a massive difference world wide for a city only 72km south of another city, yet 6c cooler?

This temperature variation in Perth seems so much more prenounced then in other cities of the world...Swanbourne can be the hottest by 1-2 c then the CBD...

Is it just me imagining things, or is temperature more variable from suburb to suburb in Perth then in other cities of the world?
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/02/2006 14:51

changed from rain to showers to possible showers to storms to possible storms and now currently

showers 28 and next day 32 clearing shower

and weather is an exact science?
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/02/2006 23:31

Quote:
Originally posted by Egan:
Perth: Min: 20 Max: 37
Mandurah: Min: 21 Max: 31

Geeze this would have to be a massive difference world wide for a city only 72km south of another city, yet 6c cooler?

This temperature variation in Perth seems so much more prenounced then in other cities of the world...Swanbourne can be the hottest by 1-2 c then the CBD...

Is it just me imagining things, or is temperature more variable from suburb to suburb in Perth then in other cities of the world?
No offence but it doesn't take Einstein to know that the sea breeze would be in at Mandurah, where as it would have still been an Easterly in Perth.
Posted by: teckert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/02/2006 23:59

Yes there would be massive differences of up to 10C or more between suburbs in cities around the world.
I know in Adelaide there is often a large difference just between the city and the airport as the airport can get cooler seabreezes.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/02/2006 10:40

Well, I thought up until this morning that we would get next to nothing from TC emma, though the latest model runs of LAPS, suggest we are still in for some very good falls! Though the path they have for TC Emma looks as though it is quite wrong, its about 500kms further east in reality at the moment! Will be intersting to see what happens tomorrow though it all depends on the path the TC takes, the more west the better for us. I think we wont get nothing maybe around 5-10mm with some isolated heavier falls out Pearce way. Still the chance of storms today too, though whatever develops wont be that strong I dont think.
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/02/2006 12:23

Quote:
Originally posted by Egan:
Perth: Min: 20 Max: 37
Mandurah: Min: 21 Max: 31

Geeze this would have to be a massive difference world wide for a city only 72km south of another city, yet 6c cooler?

This temperature variation in Perth seems so much more prenounced then in other cities of the world...Swanbourne can be the hottest by 1-2 c then the CBD...

Is it just me imagining things, or is temperature more variable from suburb to suburb in Perth then in other cities of the world?
No - anywhere that is anywhere near a coastline can have big variations, and if the ocean temperatures are radically different to the land ones they can be huge. I was in San Francisco a few years ago (in August) and heard a forecast which said 'highs ranging from the mid 50s near the ocean to near 100 in the east Bay' (translation: about 13 on the coast and 38 in the outer eastern suburbs).
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/02/2006 12:29

Not too sure about that rainfall forecast for the west coast. As TC Emma heads inland she's likely to taken a SE path. It also seems that there not much to Emma on her western side. Maybe some isolated rain, but not much around I believe, on the west coast anyway, inland will be a much different story.
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/02/2006 12:35

P.S. Check out the LAPS forecast chart 12Z +48hrs 01MAR06. Woohoo! Maybe a little off, but woyld be awesome if it was to happen!
Posted by: kizz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/02/2006 13:11

Beat me to it Blair! I was going to mention the San Francisco versus Oakland difference.

Sydney and the outer western suburbs has had a 15 degrees difference however the bureau tend to shy away from these extreme differences in their forecasts.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/02/2006 13:43

Quote:
Originally posted by Stokesy:
P.S. Check out the LAPS forecast chart 12Z +48hrs 01MAR06. Woohoo! Maybe a little off, but woyld be awesome if it was to happen!
Yeah I think Laps has already been proved wrong though, it had Emma taking a SW turn before it hit the coast and unfortunatly this didn't happen. Though it will be interesting to see what it predicts in its next run. Nether the less even if the bulk of the rain is a long way away I still think there will be enough moisture blown towards the coast to provide some rain for us west coasters, I hope so anyway. smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/02/2006 16:26

Laps has been updated and sure enough, the rain for the west coast has been downgraded, but still looking alright, around 5-10mm for Perth, with similar falls for Gero smile

Oh cool I am a 'weatherzone addict' now! dammit now I have to attend Weatherzoners Anon., I bet its a web based forum too! smile
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/02/2006 18:00

Yeah Tim, looks like the rain will be heading towards the eastern SWLD and the Goldfields then off the eastern South Coastal district near Esperance. I wouldn't expect much more than 5mm Kalbarri south along the coast out of this.
Posted by: ben01

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/02/2006 22:55

So are we gonna get any rain or what?
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/03/2006 00:50

Hopes are fading....perhaps I better get out there and wash my car.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/03/2006 12:30

Looks like we are about to finally get a proper summer weather pattern for the next week...that cyclone to the north is going to be massive as it develops...

Looks as though it may head south as well...
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/03/2006 13:42

Yeah looks like little to no rain events for a while and some nice warm temps!
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/03/2006 14:45

borrrrrrrrrring
Posted by: Thunderstruck

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/03/2006 15:06

Agree re temp diffs, can be seriously marked. Can remember Parafield here having 44C while Adelaide Airport just 20km further SW had 25C just from a seabreeze.

TS cool
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/03/2006 15:51

looks like we are having a late summer.

aaccording to the west australian it was the coldest summer in 50 years
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/03/2006 19:45

Just noticed this on the 3pm obs:

Karnet Funnel cloud 8 S 15 24 62 25

Interesting?! dont think ive ever seen that before, must have been a case of the right place at the right time!
Posted by: ben01

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/03/2006 23:06

Im not sure it will be a late summer???
I think we are just getting a typical summer pattern emerge after all the oddities of this summer so far. I am guessing what we are experiencing at the moment and into the next week is typical at this time of year. It just feels late coz we really havent had much of a hot spell at all.

Altho not heavily reliable at this point in time, BOM have predicted "For the March to May period, the chances that seasonal maximum temperatures will be higher than the median are mostly between 45 and 55% across WA"
Looks to be average smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/03/2006 23:54

Quote:
Originally posted by ben01:
Im not sure it will be a late summer???
I think we are just getting a typical summer pattern emerge after all the oddities of this summer so far. I am guessing what we are experiencing at the moment and into the next week is typical at this time of year. It just feels late coz we really havent had much of a hot spell at all.
Yeah, too true Ben, what were/will be experiencing is typical late summer heat, quite regularly you get some very hot spells late in Feb and into March. This is especially true of the previous 3 Marchs we've had, with each one having a hot spell with a day of 41C or more. 2003 was an especially unusual one were we had 3 40 degree days in a row, which is one of only a few times this has happened. March 13-15 1922 for example had 3 41C degree days in a row, which I think is the only time that has happened in Perth? So you can definitely get some scorchers in March and it looks as though we will get our first real heatwave of the summer, even though it isn't technically summer anymore smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/03/2006 13:09

well still going for 38 next week.

i suppose that is better than having rain every day like in brisbane.

i wish the cloudiness would go though frown
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/03/2006 20:43

Perth pulled through in the end. Man this place rocks!
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/03/2006 21:20

It pulled through in the end...we finally got that heat wave we want.

I should take advantage of beach...
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/03/2006 09:51

37/35/34 across a long weekend. Gotta love that!
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/03/2006 12:32

yeah great long weekend still have to go to uni on monday though,

average frothsi month is 16/29

i wonder if temps will be average thsi month
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/03/2006 14:19

Come on, that's not hot laugh , check out Gero's forecast! Saturday 39, Sunday and Monday both 40C.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/03/2006 15:00

Well you are 400kms further north Stokesy! smile

I found the Perth BoM forecast interesting:

Quote:

Sunday : Fine. Hot. Min: 20 Max: 36
Monday : Fine. Hot. Min: 21 Max: 35
Tuesday : Very hot. Min: 21 Max: 36
So whats the difference between a very hot 36 and a fine hot 36? smile Should be a great summery weekend, the only way it could be better if we had some decent storms around, but hey you cant have everything now can yah! smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/03/2006 17:05

very hot must be 35 degrees or over.
anyway i also saw.......
The overnight minimum was 13.5 eek at 0611 hours
Posted by: Stokesy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/03/2006 17:28

Actually thinking about this summer, we've had quite a few 40's up here but Perth has only managed the 1. So why has Perth been so cool. I know one thing, it definately has been more humid than most summers. BTW, 400kms it really not that far when you consider that most heating is due to a trough down the west coast. Very interesting there Tim, I wonder if radio in Perth reads it out the same way.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/03/2006 17:38

Quote:
Originally posted by Stokesy:
Actually thinking about this summer, we've had quite a few 40's up here but Perth has only managed the 1. So why has Perth been so cool. I know one thing, it definately has been more humid than most summers. BTW, 400kms it really not that far when you consider that most heating is due to a trough down the west coast. Very interesting there Tim, I wonder if radio in Perth reads it out the same way.
Yeah true Stokesy, though the extreme days under a trough may mean our highest temps are fairly close. I would imagine the cooler days wouldnt be as cool as Perth due to the cooler temp of the surrounding sea. Also I think the Gero AWS is reasonably close to the coast isnt it? whereas Perth's metro site is about 10km inland.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/03/2006 12:42

boring weather o well looks like we are in for a few days of very warm weather did i bring your summer over with me :p laugh
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/03/2006 13:41

Its not that boring Squid, should be some storms to the east of Perth later on today, already some chunky cu developing around Northam, 100km east of us. Can't chase em though, but I am going on a train out to Toodyay tonight so hopefully there will be some beauties out there smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/03/2006 15:33

Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
boring weather o well looks like we are in for a few days of very warm weather did i bring your summer over with me :p laugh
trust me... soon the weather will get interesting esp april may.... smile

i used to live in nz and i didn't know there was any very warm weather to bring over to perth .

how come you are in perth squid... are you intending to live here?
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/03/2006 02:26

Man, so stoked about this late heat wave. Tomorrow's 38! Definatly beach, pity i had to work today.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/03/2006 02:41

i do intend to live in perth phew a few hot days ahead
Posted by: NZAAS

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/03/2006 10:03

yes he must of brought summer there as its Winter here eek
Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
boring weather o well looks like we are in for a few days of very warm weather did i bring your summer over with me :p laugh
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/03/2006 17:36

it is a high pressure system responsible


Sunny
23C - 37C

Tuesday

Sunny
24C - 37C

Wednesday

Mostly sunny
24C - 35C

Thursday

Mostly sunny
19C - 31C

Friday

Mostly sunny
19C - 30C

Saturday

Mostly sunny
16C - 28C

Sunday

Mostly sunny
14C - 29C laugh


thursday will be a little cooler which is good. need a couple of days cool before the heat again.
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/03/2006 12:55

Next weekend is looking a bit too mild for my liking.
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/03/2006 14:15

Yeah, a cold front next weekend might bring some showers, a sign that winter is on the way.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/03/2006 14:41

mild?

i would say 29-30 is not mild but ok not too hot but not freezing cold

april may will possibly see the rains arrive again?

last year in march was above average rain and mild this year who knows......
Posted by: ben01

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/03/2006 20:09

I think 29-30 is perfect, or near on.
Maybe 26 - 27...

You look on the synops at the moment there is high after high after high... its amazin
Need sometin to blow em all out the way hahaha
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/03/2006 12:02

What a great long weekend hey! a good ole later summer heatwave and it aint over yet smile If we get to 38C today as forecast, we will have our third century day this March, which is exactly how many we got this summer. We recorded none in December, 1 in Jan and two in Febuary. The Sat and Sunday just gone were just over the century mark at 37.9C each.

Also it hasnt been below 20C since early Sat morning and it only just ducked below 20C then. Probably wont see a sub 20C temp until early Thursday morning I think.
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/03/2006 13:44

Yeah, terrific Tim. smile I've started saving up for the next electricity bill..
Posted by: TOM1111

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/03/2006 14:51

i cant see how you guys can look forward to heat unless you all work in a airconed building
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/03/2006 17:22

the bom says tomorrow and thursday will be very humid to humid on friday.

how humid can that be.... 60-70 percent?

by the way what is a century temperature that you guys have been going on about?
Posted by: ben01

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/03/2006 20:19

vinny,

the "century" they are referring to is 100 degrees fahrenheight, which is 38 degrees celcius.

So once we hit 38deg, we are at the century mark smile
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/03/2006 21:39

Quote:
Originally posted by boardrider_17:
i cant see how you guys can look forward to heat unless you all work in a airconed building
We don't understand...how you could enjoy the cold weather in Melbourne laugh
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/03/2006 22:46

Well as much as I like the hot weather, after the past few days I'm looking foward to the cooler change.
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/03/2006 22:54

Quote:
Originally posted by vinny:
mild?

i would say 29-30 is not mild but ok not too hot but not freezing cold

Mild is like 'warm'. Cold is cold. Mild is a not hot.
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/03/2006 22:55

Quote:
Originally posted by ben01:
vinny,

the "century" they are referring to is 100 degrees fahrenheight, which is 38 degrees celcius.

So once we hit 38deg, we are at the century mark smile
100F is actually 37.5C.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/03/2006 23:55

Quote:
Originally posted by beefy:
Quote:
Originally posted by ben01:
[b] vinny,

the "century" they are referring to is 100 degrees fahrenheight, which is 38 degrees celcius.

So once we hit 38deg, we are at the century mark smile
100F is actually 37.5C. [/b]
Well actually it is 37.777777...C :p

And we only got to 37C smile
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/03/2006 00:08

hopefully this increased forcast humidity commided with the hot temp will triggers sokme storms
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/03/2006 00:09

combined and some man i can not spell
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/03/2006 13:59

Dont worry Squid we knew what yah meant smile

Though it doesnt look there will be storms in Perth there is a chance for some to the far east of Perth over the next couple of days as the trough moves inland, though it doesnt look like they will be that impressive if they develop at all.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/03/2006 15:40

all i can say is that the cooler few months before have made the dam levels higher than last year eg

at present mid march at 35 percent
beginning of last summer started off with around 37 percent

if we get some good rains... hope! we may get dam levels to 50 percent . although pigs may fly too laugh
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 13/03/2006 13:31

nice weather all week smile although it is a bit warmer than it should be during the day isn't it?
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 13/03/2006 18:27

Nope. It is still possible to get close to 40C near the end of March - still got three weeks to go!
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 13/03/2006 19:29

Hopefully we get a tonne of rain in winter and i can take the missus to Mundaring or somewhere and watch the water flow down the walls of the weir, i remember as a kid it looked pretty cool.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/03/2006 15:34

yeah i hope we get a tonne of rain too smile ....like last year!
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/03/2006 19:19

Only last year the damn's didn't overflow. :p
Posted by: TOM1111

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/03/2006 21:14

Quote:
Originally posted by Egan:
Quote:
Originally posted by boardrider_17:
[b] i cant see how you guys can look forward to heat unless you all work in a airconed building
We don't understand...how you could enjoy the cold weather in Melbourne laugh [/b]
im not from melbourne
williamtown is near newcastle so im an east coaster and have had a couple 45c days this summer and there very uncomftable and working outide is much better when its a bit cooler.

average temps have been alot warmer here than over there so you get over it after a while
Posted by: ben01

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/03/2006 23:25

Geez, at this rate we are gonna easily average above 30 for March this year.

Summers blown, bring on the rain smile
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/03/2006 13:09

i have been quiet due to lack of action :p :p
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/03/2006 14:43

Yeah its definitely not been/going to be the most exciting weather week or two for Perth, but the weather at the moment is practilly perfect I think. Nice and cool during the night and bright sunny warm days.

Though starting to forget what clouds look like, I havent seen one since Sat morning I think! smile Reminds me of the start of Jan 04 when we didnt see a cloud in Perth for like 8 days or something!
Posted by: bulldog

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/03/2006 19:40

Quote:
Originally posted by beefy:
Only last year the damn's didn't overflow. :p
hay beefy you should have came down to collie.The welly dam overflowed first time in a few years.They even had traffic lights at the bottom bridge for the traffic
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/03/2006 20:09

Ahh cool, collie's too far away!! :p
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/03/2006 15:10

start to wonder about global warming when you see temps like now eg (36) in march when average is 16/29. I suppose it makes up for the cool summer. Then again i suppose that the cool summer could have been caused by natural variation?

only next thursday and friday will be roughly average.

i am missing the rain and the clouds but they will come back soon smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/03/2006 19:19

Quote:
Originally posted by vinny:
start to wonder about global warming when you see temps like now eg (36) in march when average is 16/29. I suppose it makes up for the cool summer. Then again i suppose that the cool summer could have been caused by natural variation?
Am I the only one getting a sense of deju vu? :rolleyes:
Posted by: Melodie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/03/2006 19:37

Any news for April? Love the warm weather!!!! Hope it keeps going till April May!!
Posted by: tekNique

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/03/2006 19:51

Is it normal for Perth to have an easterly wind ridge this time of year?

Its seems to have been constant for the last 3 weeks. Even tho the lows from the north arent strong or pushing down, the ridge/isobars seem quite stong.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/03/2006 19:52

I would be betting on dry and mild with most days around 28c, with maybe the odd low 30 early in the month.

Then later in the month we get a cold front that drags down tropical moisture which gets us close to average rainfall, but overall fairly dry.

I see May being fairly similar but temps around 24c. Hopefully by late May we start to get into a winter pattern.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/03/2006 20:06

Quote:
Originally posted by nappy:
Is it normal for Perth to have an easterly wind flow ridge this time of year?

Its seems to have been constant for the last 3 weeks. Even tho the lows from the north arent strong or pushing down, the ridge/isobars seem quite stong.
Yes it is perfectly normal for the start of the month, but around about this time of the month the weather pattern starts to change. I don't think the pattern will change too much short term
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/03/2006 20:41

so can we expect this kind of weather for the rest of this month???
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/03/2006 00:28

Yep, sure can, and into April and even May (although the nights will cool down more by then). If you came to Perth for exciting weather then I'm afraid you've come to the worst place in the world! Days of clear skies and dry easterlies, then 10 min of excitement with a thunderstorm or cold front, then weeks of stability again. That's Perth for you.

Looks like a change coming through on Thursday, though.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/03/2006 01:29

Im still revelling in our first few weeks of Summer...its depressing me all these people talking about cold fronts in 2 months time :p

Let us enjoy the pleasant hot weather - Never have I been savouring the warmth as much as I am this summer, even when I am stinking hot...I am in so much HAPPINESS.

Bring on another month of this weather!
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/03/2006 14:08

Originally posted by Blue Skies:
I'm afraid you've come to the worst place in the world! Days of clear skies and dry easterlies, then 10 min of excitement with a thunderstorm or cold front, then weeks of stability again. That's Perth for you.

It could be worse, I'm sure there are many more places in the world where the weather is even less exciting.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/03/2006 18:26

what a fantastic sunny day today cool smile

humidity is very low hasn't been like this for a while. smile

note..... enjoy this weather whilst it lasts! the bom reckons some showers in the south west land division next week with falls of 10mm.
Posted by: ben01

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/03/2006 22:48

mon tues stinkers, the rest of the week and weekend high 20's .... LUVS IT!!

stay that way **crosses fingers**
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/03/2006 20:34

interesting to see temps of 22 with 14 at night on thursday... more like autumn smile

though, it is quite nice that today perth lived up to its dry heat image..... 16 percent right now
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/03/2006 14:21

Man, can't keep some of you guys happy. When it's not as hot as it should be, you all whinge about the cool temps, then when it's absolutely perfect, not a cloud in the sky and nice warm easterlies, you complain that it's boring and there's no rain.

Take it as it comes and enjoy it, you won't get the day again.
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/03/2006 20:56

Gotta love the outlook for Perth laugh

Cooler weather has finally arrived!

26 C tomorrow and even cooler for Thursday ! 20C windy with showers laugh looks like summer is over for another year wink

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR PERTH FOR:
Thursday : Showers. Min: 13 Max: 20
Friday : Few showers, clearing. Min: 9 Max: 22
Saturday : Fine, partly cloudy. Min: 10 Max: 25
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/03/2006 23:18

More depression :p

Not happy about a 1 month summer, lets hope we get a better one next year, It seems like yesterday I was freezing my but off...I am so not ready for it to be winter again.
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/03/2006 23:57

Seriously, nothing can keep you guys happy. JungleJim, maybe you should consider a move to merry ol` England or something, the sun never shines there.
Posted by: Freak Snowfall

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/03/2006 02:24

I'm with you, Beefy! With all the whinging about below average temps you'd think "average" really means "minimum requirement", and that failure to reach it is a serious concern rather than a statistical necessity.

So December was cool, but let's not forget - Perth's Jan max temps were only about 2 below average, Feb was spot on, and so far this month we are 3 above. Hardly an ice age.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/03/2006 12:34

So... can anybody explain temps of 9 degrees at night with 22 during the day on friday and temps of 18 and 30 on tuesday?

one extreme to the next.

It never is constant like in the subtropics.

anyway, i like it like it is as present and am not one of the whingers.. just curious as to why the weather is so changeable in perth this month and last.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/03/2006 12:47

The mass of air is coming from the south on Friday, and from the east on Tuesday.

It's very, very simple.

Temps out around Kalgoorlie are still very hot, around 33c. The wind is coming from that direction.
When the wind is coming from the south or south west the wind is passing over water temps of around 20c or below.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/03/2006 17:12

Cloudy periods with a few showers developing late afternoon

so far the clouds are building up smile but all the action looks north of perth :p
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/03/2006 17:18

Vinny the action is always north or east or south of perth! We hardly get any good stuff! Yeah I am bitter that I always miss the good storms...
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/03/2006 17:22

i am south of perth (bentley) now and it is pouring (believe it or not) smile
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/03/2006 18:08

Yeah! I am in West Perth... got some drizzel... nothing to get excited about. Patchy Cloud Cover... some thick and dark but still blue patches!
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/03/2006 12:48

ok a bit of a while away yet but thoughts of floyd paying us a visitpossible next monday/Tuesday 3 models now point him in our direction now what are your thoughts on this?
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/03/2006 15:50

Well it will be interesting to say the least!! I hope it does not hit perth... our homes are certainly not built to withstand cyclones! Although the models show it coming toward the cost from what I can tell it will more like carnarvon / geraldton that would be in the firing line... its way to early to tell what floyd will do/go... heck he might bugger off back out to sea... but I will be watching this to see what path he does take...
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/03/2006 12:35

i doubt perth will see any cyclones... i hope..

looks like grey skies frown .... a bit more like autumn?
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/03/2006 00:11

The only good thing is that University will be cancelled for the day if it hits...but I fear what it would do to my university in Fremantle right on the coast.

Will be following this closely...as I stated in the other thread a cyclone hitting Perth and you will see the epitomy of what complacency has done, lets hope it hits a bit further up the coast...
Posted by: Squeako da Magnifico.

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/03/2006 00:37

Has Perth Ever been hit by a cyclone. One of the weather books in the school library had Perth as a strike zone for tropical cyclones. But I don't know if it's true or not. Can anyone tell me.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/03/2006 00:49

Alby nearly hit Perth in 1978.

We had the remnants of the two cyclones in the North/West hit Perth.

I imagine its due to the fact the waters in the Indian Ocean are much warmer then the Pacific Ocean and the Leeuwin Current as well that is right outside Perth's doorstep, which is what makes our ocean temperature so pleasant...is probably a double edge sword also makes us susceptible to Tropical Cyclones.

The Leeuwin Current brings many sea life from the north-west down in the winter, and these animals if not recovered will perish in the cold.

Thus I think thats why although Perth is at a relatively low latitude to experience a Tropical Cyclone, the water temperature is far higher then what it would be on the opposing side of the continent.

Giving a cyclone more energy and more force when it hits the cost...

Thus why Perth would be in a strike zone.
Posted by: Squeako da Magnifico.

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/03/2006 01:31

Thanks for that Egan. Just wanted to make sure.

:cheers:
Posted by: wiz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/03/2006 10:38

It's not only that, it the direction cyclones travel when they get out of the tropics. Usually they first take a W to SW direction, when they start to move further south, they can get captured by cold fronts and swing them towards the SE, into the lower west coast. On the east coast this puts them out to sea.
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/03/2006 20:24

hi all

Mike from Esperance here!!

I found this article on the BOM site very interesting in regards to Cyclones and Perth.

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone/about/perth/index.shtml

I think that many would be surprised to find out that on average Perht get a cyclone every 6 - 10 years!!!

It has been less of late though. The article is very interesting.

Anyway I am going to place a huge prediction on the list and have the current low that is now over the Kimberley moving down the west coast at some stage and crossing it somewhere. I wouldn't have it any particular place but geraldton south is very possible. I am basing this off ECMWF which often is good in these situations. But since it only goes out a week and GFS has it crossign the coast on NW cape it is very speculative to say the least. But Its worth a gamble and it looks like it will be a very big cyclone as well.

Whats others thoughts?? I am interested to see if any other people are as brave as me!!!

Cheers
MikeF
Posted by: wiz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/03/2006 22:35

I got to agree, looking at the current EC day 7 surface chart, it has the cyclone in a perfect position for it to happen. My tip is it to go down the west coast, but not to hit land, closest it will be will be about 300km off the SW capes smile That's my tip!
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/03/2006 01:14

I think it will weaken rapidly due to the low SST's and the high wind shear. I would love to get some tropical weather here in Perth but I just can't see it happening.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/03/2006 02:44

Actually the water around the NW cape is very warm at the moment, and even around geraldton it's still around 26c. The water is warm enough to maintain a strong system and if it gets some speed going to it there is no reason why a strong cat 2 reaching Perth isn't a chance.

Having said all that Floyd is running into some strong sheer, but if it keeps moving east the sheer isnt quiet as bad, once it heads south it will weaken very rapidly.

I see Floyd dissapaiting just north of learmonth, having no impact on the lower west coast
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/03/2006 02:48

The system next week is impossible to predict right now, it would be 10 days before it would get here. So much can happen in between then.

Most of the models are going for a very large TC, not these tight little ones of the last few years.

You could certainly say we are due for a TC, it's been a while
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/03/2006 10:13

agree with you kirk that it could go anywhere and EC has it curving earlier now similar to GFS so it is looking more likely that that will occur but that said it is very early still and it is still possible for a west coast impact but really it is crystal ball gazing based upon limited advice and experience.

Cheers
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/03/2006 16:26

Can't beleive there are 19 warnings out for WA at the moment. It is the most I have ever seen!!!

3 different cyclone warnings, flood warnings and normal strong wind warnings.

Interesting time for weather if you are not in the SW of WA at the moment frown
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/03/2006 19:07

well floyd is dying but 2 more systems to watch
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/03/2006 19:53

Quote:
Originally posted by mikef:
Can't beleive there are 19 warnings out for WA at the moment. It is the most I have ever seen!!!

3 different cyclone warnings, flood warnings and normal strong wind warnings.

Interesting time for weather if you are not in the SW of WA at the moment frown
Yeah I noticed that too! 19 at any one time must be close to a record? Great to see you on the forums by the way Mike and I hope your prediction for that TC comes true!

And as has been said, we could have 3 cyclones at the one time in the NW, definitely a very interesting weather week coming up for the north of the state, whereas down here looks as though boring but beautiful sunny warm days for a few days yet smile

Just for the record, the 20 warnings current now:
Coastal Wind Warning 1,
Coastal Wind Warning 3,
Coastal Wind Warning 4,
Ocean Wind Warning 3,
Gale/Storm/Hurricane Warning for Tropical Cyclone for Shipping 1,
Gale/Storm/Hurricane Warning for Tropical Cyclone for Shipping 2,
Tropical Cyclone Advices - System 1 (WA),
Tropical Cyclone Advices - System 1 (Cocos/Xmas),
Western Australia Flood Summary,
Flood Warning - East Kimberley District,
Flood Warning - North Kimberley District,
Tropical Cyclone Forecast Map - System 1 (image),
Tropical Cyclone Forecast Map - System 2 (image),
Tropical Cyclone Track and Threat Map Image - System 1,
Tropical Cyclone Track and Threat Map Image- System 2,
NT Coastal Wind Warning affecting WA border area,
NT Ocean Wind Warning affecting WA border area,
NT Tropical Cyclone Advice affecting WA border area,
Threat map issued by NT for System affecting WA,
Threat forecast track map issued by NT for system affecting WA.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/03/2006 21:28

looks like quite boring weather all week although fine and sunny and nice and cool at night but not heater weather yet smile
Posted by: wiz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/03/2006 23:56

Your predicition might be right chops (mike), EC has the cyclone to the west of geraldton by day 7 at the moment.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/03/2006 03:47

I don't think anybody in the country has a clue which way this baby is gonna go. Each model I have seen so far gives a different outcome.

GASP has it moving directly west and not impacting anywhere.

GFS has it impacting the Pilbra coast

ECM has it moving west then suddenly turning south down the west coast.

Normally a couple of models agree, or at least somewhat agree. But each is different. GFS seems to be the pick of the models just of late so I will be keeping an eye out on that one the most.
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/03/2006 10:19

OCF has quite extensive rain for the eastern SW Land Division on next Sunday and Monday with 45mm or more for the eastern South Coast (here) I would imagine this is either a model prediction of a sharp mid level trough pulling moisture down from a cyclone or the cyclone itself moving across the SW land division from just north of Perth through to Espreance somewhere.

I love pulling stuff out and OCF may well dump it today at 12:30 when it updates but it looks good with a west coast crossing.

ECMWF is now showing it up as a West coast crossing south of Geraldton but is has been a bit all over the place which as you say above Kirk are just like all the other models.

GFS has been fairly constant and I can understand you going for that with its recent history but I am a little bit reserved with GFS and tropical systems. I think GFS is fantastic at mid latitude analysis with long wave troughs and cold fronts and middle level systems. But i think it is lets itself down when it comes to the tropics. Here is where I think that ECMWF is much better. It had Larry crossing the coast around cairns well before it was even a cyclone. It also had Wati moving on pretty well exactly the same path is it eventually followed even though there where a few runs which went astray. It also had Emma very well pinned and others before hand too.

But Each model has its day and it may well be GFS this time or neither. Its not far off from a SW of WA fly by either Wiz!!
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/03/2006 12:49

Actually I think ECM has it crossing directly through Perth. But that is still a week off, also interesting to see the BoM change the forecast to windy and thundery showers possible later in the period
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/03/2006 15:34

ok we got 2 systems to watch what are the chances of one or both of them affecting us
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/03/2006 16:08

Chances are low I thnk Squid... but these systems do have a mid of thier own... However it is looking like Floyd will bring us some good rains... but will be a little while off yet and anything can happen smile
Posted by: wiz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/03/2006 16:14

OFC forecast now has 70mm expected for Perth on Saturday.
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/03/2006 16:23

Looking at some of the other models...

JMA has it wandering ever so slowly out in to the indian ocean,

MM5 has it closly modelling ECMWF and moving down the west coast but not as intense.

NCEP ENS has it crossing around Onslow and moving inland SE from there

OCF now has very heavy rainfall down the west coast with areas expected to receive over 70 mm on Saturday!!!

So what to make of all that??

Its still a 5 days off off.
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/03/2006 16:32

70MM for perth this saturday? Hmmm Bom show's saturday as fine! LOL
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/03/2006 17:59

One thing is for sure, we are certainly due!!

I am not sure we really want ECM to come off, if that did happen the destruction of property would be great. This could get into cat 4 or 5 strenght and the waters off the NW area are very warm. It would still be a very strong system once it goes extra tropical. Could very well be a cat 2 or 3 system by the time it reaches us as it would be fast moving. Having said that this is only one possible outcome of many.

I did remember an article in the paper only a couple of years back saying it's only a matter of time before a strong cat 3 cyclone hits Perth, and how we would not cope all that well.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/03/2006 18:08

i don't know why you guys think a cyclone would hit perth. the forecast apart from tomorrow is for fine weather all week.

TREND FOR SATURDAY, SUNDAY and MONDAY:
Fine. Max temps: Low 30's to mid 20's.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/03/2006 18:10

Quote:
Originally posted by wiz:
OFC forecast now has 70mm expected for Perth on Saturday.
well they must be dreaming laugh
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/03/2006 18:19

Vinny,

BoM are going for the most likely outcome right now, this morning the outlook was for possible thundery showers and windy weather. It's still a long way out! So I am not surprised the outlook is for fine weather. If the models continue to chop and change predictions then expect that outlook trend to change on a daily basis.
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/03/2006 18:23

Vinny,

The BOM looks at the data that we look at and they make a decision based upon it just like we do. The BOM however has a lot more experience between them and the other thing they have is conservation of forecast. By this I mean that if they kept changing the forecast every day based upon a model run then the public would start to think that they didn't know their job.

For Example... If the forecast rain and strong winds for saturday in todays forecast, then forecast fine in tommorrows and then rain and strong winds on wednesday forecast and then fine for saturday on thursday. Anyone watching the forecast day by day would think that the BOM are pulling balls out of a hat!

The 8:30 extended forecast for Perth had thundery showers and winds for saturday but now they have gone conservative until they are more sure. The 8:30 forecast was likely reversed due to uncertainty. I think that once the models start to settle down on an outcome then you will find the BOM forecast will settle on something more akin to what will actually happen on the day. It may well be fine but definately evidence is mounting against it being fine. It is just that the BOM need to be more sure.

Hope this helps explain the difference between the BOM and our forecasts. With us we don't have to worry about the public perception and this is a BIG difference...

Cheers
MikeF
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/03/2006 18:40

I am starting to agree with Kirk and I hope that I am wrong in my original forecast becasue if the latest ECMWF run turns out to be true then you guy's should be getting insurance right now on your properties and car!

Central pressure of around 980 and going transitional down the west coast and moving at about 40km/h SSE

That scenario is very frightning for the west coastal communities if indeed it happens...

ECMWF is now starting to be very solid on this cyclone crossing around Perth.

Its the peak time of year for cyclone crossings at this latitude!!

Cheers
Mike
Posted by: radar

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/03/2006 18:50

Hey Chop!

You beat me to it mate! The latest EC run looks nothing short of frightening for the West Coast. I'd like to see some decent rain and interesting weather in Perth, but if the current scenario were to come off things would get ugly. The EC has mean wind speeds of 144km/h at 850, add another 40% for wind gusts you get 200km/h. I don't think Perth would fare too well if that were to occur!

Cheers

Radek
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/03/2006 18:52

I was just about to post the same thing. ECM is staying consistent so far going for a lower west coast crossing between Perth and bunbury. That might look great right now, but houses down here won't cope with winds around 150km/hr all that well. Sitting back now it might look awesome, but in a weeks time if it came off it would be rather scary!
Posted by: wiz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/03/2006 19:08

Yeah it sure does! Here is the latest EC run:

Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/03/2006 19:28

Yeah it looks great! the latest model runs all seem to have each one sticking to its guns, with each model sticking to its 12Z predicition, more or less. Will be interesting to see how they change ober the next couple of days. The fact that OCF is predicting 70mm is a good sign as it uses the most reliable model at the time so hopefully that means ECM is the most reliable one for this event.

Though saying this a strong cat 2 or even a cat 1 is not something that we would want or be able to cope with too well in Perth and the South West.

Funny thing is my house insurance is due for renewal on the 1st of April, I know I am not going to be a fool and forget to pay it . smile
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/03/2006 19:34

Well it would be like the strongest of winter storms, then add 10%.. which would lead to widespread damage.

Although if that came off Perth would be under a TC warning which could mean I could take the day off maybe as nobody is out looking for theatre systems when a TC is moving through laugh
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/03/2006 19:54

Hey if the TC comes within 250km of Perth I will be taking the day off! smile though looks as though the timing will be fairly good, right in the middle of the weekend.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/03/2006 22:05

i may yet get to see a perth cyclone i will be doing well if this happends already seen severe storms since i been here will be watching this one with interest
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 00:06

glenda cat 3 now didnt take her very long
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 00:09

So does this mean I am right in the firing line.

Am midway between Bunbury and Perth?

Hmm will be exciting and scary at the same time...will WAFL games on the Saturday be cancelled if the cyclone is heading towards the coast?

I'd think so, all I remember is being a youngster in Karratha with many cyclone warnings, dont think we ever had a direct hit though...
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 00:28

I wouldn't worry at all, It's only 1 model that has us impacting us directly, but this model has been fairly accurate just lately with tropical systems.

Most lkely outcome is still a crossing, between Port Headland and Exmouth
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 00:43

I agree with you Kirk.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 00:54

Well as long as we get on the International News if we do get hit...although the problems it will cause to an already over-heated construction industry.

I mean if we had a whole news segment on the Tornadoes that struck Perth last winter, imagine the amount of news that we will get if a cyclone hit us.

Anyways will be closely monitoring the storm, I am hoping we just get a Cyclone warning, thats all I want.
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 01:16

I wouldn't be getting too excited. Most of the models have it not not hitting the SWLD. If a few start to agree (and this would only happen as we get closer to the weekend) then get excited - or should I say worried.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 10:25

Well Gasp is sort of agreeing, but it has Glenda going a lot further west dissapating then reforming as a low beforepassing close to the capes, which is a good sign. Now we just need GFS to start agreeing smile
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 10:57

yes i noticed that aswell interesting
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 13:03

Yep more models are starting to agree it will head west, then either curve around down the coast or just head further west and weaken.

EC still has it as a weak cat 2 hitting Perth.
But then again models are very poor for picking strenght, it has it peaking at around 965hpa just off the NW cape and it's already at 955hpa.

Can anyone tell me this.
Has Perth ever been on a TC warning, i am sure we would have been on watch before, but I can't remember.
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 13:13

Yeah kirk Perth was on a tc warning or what ever its equivalent was back in 1989 with T.C. Ned.

It crossed about Rockingham with winds over 100 km/h and at midnight it was completely calm.

Perth didn't get any rain to speak of and the wind was not strong for too long.

It was not a very big cyclone when it crossed the coast but it was a cyclone all the same

Wiz actually mentiones it in this very old email on the net

http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/aussiewx/1998/981010.htm

smile

And this article is of interest as well

http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wsp/s/198808.html.en

Other than that I am sure there are many others.

Cheers
MikeF
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 13:18

I can be excused for missing ted as I was only 4 years old.

It would be a nice 21st birthday present, albeit a few days late( Birthday is March 29th) as long as it isn't too strong!
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 13:55

Fine. Light winds, before a fresh afternoon sea breeze.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE: 27

UV INDEX: 6 [HIGH]

FIRE DANGER: Coastal Plain: HIGH
Hills: HIGH

Expect fine warm weather for several days to come.


smile

better weather than what i have heard from a relative who lives in nz smile
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 14:32

Looks like the BOM has done another backflip:

IDW12300
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

FORECAST FOR THE PERTH METROPOLITAN AREA
Issued at 11:20am WST on Tuesday the 28th of March 2006 for the remainder of
today and Wednesday

FORECAST:
Fine. Fresh S/SW winds shifting fresh and gusty SE overnight and tomorrow
morning, returning fresh S'ly tomorrow afternoon.


TODAY'S TEMPERATURE: Maximum: 27
TOMORROW'S TEMPERATURES: Minimum: 14 Maximum: 27
TODAY'S UV INDEX: 6 [HIGH]

TODAY'S FIRE DANGER: Coastal Plain: HIGH
Hills: HIGH

The overnight minimum was 11.8 at 0631 hours

Expect fine and warm weather through to late Saturday, when some evening showers
will develop


MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR PERTH FOR:
Thursday : Fine. Min: 14 Max: 28
Friday : Fine. Min: 15 Max: 29
Saturday : Cloud increasing, evening showers. Min: 15 Max: 28

TREND FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY and TUESDAY:
Showery, stormy and windy Sunday, then becoming fine. Max temps: Mid 20s.
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 14:32

Looks like the BOM has done another backflip:

IDW12300
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

FORECAST FOR THE PERTH METROPOLITAN AREA
Issued at 11:20am WST on Tuesday the 28th of March 2006 for the remainder of
today and Wednesday

FORECAST:
Fine. Fresh S/SW winds shifting fresh and gusty SE overnight and tomorrow
morning, returning fresh S'ly tomorrow afternoon.


TODAY'S TEMPERATURE: Maximum: 27
TOMORROW'S TEMPERATURES: Minimum: 14 Maximum: 27
TODAY'S UV INDEX: 6 [HIGH]

TODAY'S FIRE DANGER: Coastal Plain: HIGH
Hills: HIGH

The overnight minimum was 11.8 at 0631 hours

Expect fine and warm weather through to late Saturday, when some evening showers
will develop


MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR PERTH FOR:
Thursday : Fine. Min: 14 Max: 28
Friday : Fine. Min: 15 Max: 29
Saturday : Cloud increasing, evening showers. Min: 15 Max: 28

TREND FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY and TUESDAY:
Showery, stormy and windy Sunday, then becoming fine. Max temps: Mid 20s.
Posted by: radar

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 14:43

What that says to me is that the likelyhood of TC Glenda coming close to Perth as predicted by EC is on the increase.
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 14:51

the models are now making it look a lot more likely that perth will get at least some decent rainfall out of TC Glenda. Its been about 17 years since the last cyclone strike so it would be well overdue.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 15:12

woudl the models please make up thier mind lol
Posted by: wiz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 15:23

We sure have Kirk.

Our last Cyclone Warning was with Vincent in March, 1990. I still got the tape of the News and Channel 10's weather from the previous day. I was trying to find the tape but not sure where I put it when I moved houses! Vincent stayed to far out to see to give us any damage, but south of Bunbury it did get a bit rough.

As chops said we were also on a Warning with Ned in 1989, it hit Rockingham and gusts of about 100km/h was felt along the coast. We would have been on a warning with Alby in 1978 too. I'm sure there where others too.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 15:27

Well LAPS has just updated and it seems to have Glenda following a similar path as what ECM predicts, its looking good/bad smile

Though the latest OCF has the majority of the rain down near the Capes, which would suggest a capes crossing or close call anyway, very interesting...
Posted by: radar

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 15:30

Beat me to it Tim. In fact EC, LAPS Meso LAPS, and GASP all put the cyclone north of NW Cape by Thursday. It's really only GFS now that is going for a coastal crossing near Onslow.
Posted by: wiz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 15:31

That would make sense, if it does cross the lower west coast, it will probably be moving down quite fast. What usually happens is most of the wind will be on the north and east side of the system and the heavier rain will be on the west and south side of it if it does move as fast as she would at those lattitudes.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 15:33

seems that most models have her going down the coast now
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 15:33

I think the BoM have jumped the gun just a little with that forecast,especially this far out.

I would much prefer to see the trend as:
"dependent on movement of TC Glenda"
Posted by: Squeako da Magnifico.

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 15:34

Wiz... that sounds almost like an Extra-Tropical cyclone. But wouldn't most of the wind will be in the south due to the clashing of the isobars between it and the high.
Posted by: wiz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 15:44

Nope, because you got to remember that the winds on the side that cyclone is moving will be faster.

For instance if the storm is moving say south at 50km/h, the winds on the east side of it will have that advantage of going the same direction as the storm is moving, while the winds on the western side will not.
Posted by: Squeako da Magnifico.

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 15:47

Oh i get ya now.

Cheers.
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 15:52

Quote:
Originally posted by Kirk:
I think the BoM have jumped the gun just a little with that forecast,especially this far out.

I would much prefer to see the trend as:
"dependent on movement of TC Glenda"
I agree Kirk, it would save their own arses and it is a little too far out to predict anything around the Perth area. Glenda seems to be moving in a more south-westerly direction now so its looking more likely that it could hit the Pilbara/Gascoyne region.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 16:01

seems to be wobbling a bit but isnt that typicall for cyclones to wobble a bit?
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 16:19

Quote:
Originally posted by hailstorm:
Quote:
Originally posted by Kirk:
[b] I think the BoM have jumped the gun just a little with that forecast,especially this far out.

I would much prefer to see the trend as:
"dependent on movement of TC Glenda"
I agree Kirk, it would save their own arses and it is a little too far out to predict anything around the Perth area. Glenda seems to be moving in a more south-westerly direction now so its looking more likely that it could hit the Pilbara/Gascoyne region. [/b]
Well they did just that in their more general 4 day outlook for the SW:

Quote:

Shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to extend through the entire Central
West, the adjacent Central Wheat Belt and Lower West districts during Saturday
but will depend on the subsequent movement of the cyclone. The remainder of the
SW Land division should remain fine.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 16:24

well there you go happy now guys :p
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 16:32

has anyone got any links on cyclones that have impacted perth in the past???
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 16:32

Latest GFS output is now starting its westward move of the cyclone. It still has it crossing the NW cape but has the rain bearing depression moving much more south. I would be thinking that in the next few runs it will move the system much more to the west.

I know that I am pulling a big straw but it is a subtle change that I have been looking for. GFS is like this. It only very slowly moves its prognosis when it gets closer to the day if it needs to change as all good models should.

Really interested to see what ECMWF has for its 3:15 run

Cheers
Mike
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 16:34

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone/about/perth/index.shtml

I placed this on this thread about 4 pages back

Cheers
Mike
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 16:38

Well thats good news Mike, the models are starting to agree. and yeah I have noticed the same with GFS in the short term but for the extended outlooks it seems to change its mind quite dramatically from model run to model run.

Are there any models still going for a crossing near Karratha and then the low going South/South-east over WA? they all seem to be going for a curve around the NW capes before heading south along the west coast dont they?
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 16:41

thanks for that mikef my bad yes the models to seem to be making it curve around the NW cape
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 16:43

JTWC also have been moving the system more to the west as well. I would think that this is in response to GFS.

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh2006.gif
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 18:19

Well ECMWF now have it moving right around the NW corner and hitting shark bay then tracking S/se.

The only thing of note is this run has it much weaker.
Yesterday it had it as 975hpa off Geraldton and today it's 997hpa around shark bay, it must be expecting shear to greatly increase around Exmouth.

But still only taking it with a grain of salt, still alot Glenda might do
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 18:26

Yeah, though I wouldnt be unhappy with that track, means we would still get a fair amount of rain but without the wind. Though as you said its all up to Glenda now and what she feels like doing over the next few days smile
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 18:43

what is the windshear like form the NW cape down to perth and is it expected to increase or decrease can anyone tell me or does anyone have any links to this information?
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 18:44

check out this

its a high res vis photo
https://www.yoko.npmoc.navy.mil/yoko/sat/aust/visfine/austvisfine20060870630.jpg
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 18:48

yeah awesome pic that Mike, Glenda is one sexy storm! smile
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 19:03

Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
what is the windshear like form the NW cape down to perth and is it expected to increase or decrease can anyone tell me or does anyone have any links to this information?
Shear south of NW cape is just about always strong. Normally between 50 to 100 knots or more. The current environment it sits in is only 10 knots.

You will find if it tracks down the coast the cloud will fairly quickly be stripped from the LLCC ( eye wall)and most likely trail into its SE quadrant. So even if it does hit perth you won't see a defined eye on the sat images
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 19:12

Looking at the radar image, it must be the largest Eye Wall I have ever seen...
Posted by: wiz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 19:21

It nearly is always strong as Kirk says, but sometimes it can be low. I remember with Cyclone Steve, windshear was down to 5knots around Denham when the Cyclone moved over.
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 19:22

which radar?
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 19:35

The Broome 256k shows the eye about 225km to the north west.. Thats a real small eye, only 12-15km diameter.

Ants are sandbagging their nests here ATM. smile
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 19:41

what does that mean if the ants are sandbagging thier nests or are you being silly
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 19:43

Its a good sign wet weather is on the way Squid. smile
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/03/2006 23:58

Well I would say off the top of my head that approx 2% of cyclones that effect WA, come anywhere near Perth. However, given it has been so long, and some of the models have Glenda affecting the lower West Coast, I reckon the chance of rain from this system is about 60% but the chance of it doing any damage is about 5%. No science to this - just gut feel. The odds are it will head to the SE after rounding the NW Cape and flood inland WA.
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/03/2006 00:44

wow that is pretty impressive for the 9.00 cyclone update

Central Pressure : 910 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 300 kilometres per hour.
Severity Category : 5

Outlook is to get down to 905 hPa

Wow
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/03/2006 01:01

tell you what the rain from this system would be more than weclome and i think she will go lower than 900 hpa
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/03/2006 01:30

Squid, I think the Pilbara region has had more then enough rain over the last 6 months...the rain isn't actually that welcome, I wouldn't reckon.

Maybe the resulting rains in the Wheatbelt will be, but not in the Pilbara.

The Dams in Perth would get a nice old top up as well...
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/03/2006 09:44

i was talking about the perth region
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/03/2006 09:55

OCF going for a modest 13.8mm on Sat and 7.7mm on Sunday for Perth.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/03/2006 11:24

the gasp looks rather interesting
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/03/2006 12:45

is it usual to see temps in april of 33 like the bom is forecasting for next week?

When will cold fronts start.... May?
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/03/2006 14:25

BoM are backing away from anything significant reaching Perth from Glenda, with Sat now a shower or two and clearing on Sunday. frown
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/03/2006 15:07

bloddy typicall
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/03/2006 15:44

LOL Tim why and I not surprised...

but anything can still happen...
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/03/2006 16:13

OCF has predicted about 30mm of rain over the weekend which is up from what it was before. Who knows what could happen? Glenda might start tracking S/SE or she might just continue her path out into the ocean never to be seen again, or maybe, just maybe she'll skirt around the coast and go directly over the southwest. My guess is that she'll probably not make direct landfall in the Pilbara but I've seen too many cyclones to be confident about her crossing around Perth. Fingers crossed though (should I really be saying that?!?). smile
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/03/2006 17:20

Most models going for a Pilbra crossing then heading ESE inland (like most NW cyclones).
Perth will get next to nothing from this system.
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/03/2006 17:50

Thats what I thought... Perth will miss out on anything substantial from the Cyclone.
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/03/2006 17:51

Well i'm going to stand on a limb here (realising the odds are against it) that this cyclone will track along the coast and at least give Perth some decent rain.
Posted by: AussieMark79

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/03/2006 17:59

will Glenda increase humidity for Perth?
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/03/2006 18:43

u cant rule anything out yet
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/03/2006 18:53

A promising sign for some significant rain is that both GASP and ECM still have Glenda going around the NW Cape. Though it does seem more and more likely that the bulk of rain will be to the east and north of here.
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/03/2006 19:02

YEah Good 'ol Kalgoorlie should recieve some great falls from the TC... Although it will most prob be just a rain depression by then...

As Squid said... "you cant rule anything out yet" but most prob Perth will get some rains but nothing major...
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/03/2006 22:19

check out the gasp model for 5 days time didnt another model have glenda moving over perth like this one now does???
Posted by: wiz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/03/2006 22:33

This afternoons EC model is much better than this morning. It now has Glenda moving further south and crossing near the Geraldton and Kalbarri regions. UK Met has a similar situation. NGP has it near Carnavon then moving south right along the coast. GASP has it near the west coast too. Stuffed if I know what will happen. BoM seem pretty confident it will make landfall early tomorrow morning, they are usually right.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/03/2006 22:52

looks like perth will miss out now on any significant wet weather .....


Saturday : Cloudy, shower or two. Min: 16 Max: 25


oh well!

lets hope the wet weather starts soon in perth april average is 44mm and may is 120mm
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/03/2006 23:30

i think that forcast will change again
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/03/2006 02:15

Yep the models are very much split at the moment.
From Glendas movements over the last 3 hours I would say the Pilbra crossing is most likely.

But things can change very quickly.
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/03/2006 02:48

I'm confident with the BOM forecast. They rarely get these wrong, and you can expect a crossing just North of Onslow before heading South then SE. Perth will probably get less than 5mm in the gauge.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/03/2006 03:00

Let's wait and see, this is a very unpredictable Cyclone...I personally don't think its going to hit the Mardie-Onslow region and in the 9pm update the BOM stated it would cross between Karratha and Exmouth - That to me show they have no bloody idea what this system will do, like the rest of us.

Good news is we may have a fine weekend...which I wont be complaining about.
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/03/2006 09:52

The 3am BOM Forecast map has Glenda crossing at Onslow.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/03/2006 10:22

well she didnt cross overnight and the watch has been extended down the coast a bit more hasnt weakened much either
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/03/2006 12:27

Quote:
Originally posted by Rat from Perth:
Thats what I thought... Perth will miss out on anything substantial from the Cyclone.
latest bom forecast has changed from showers to possible shower to:

It will be cloudy on Saturday with patchy rain expected. Showers
should clear Saturday night to a fine day on Sunday.
Saturday : Patchy rain. Min: 16 Max: 24
Sunday : Fineday. Min: 13 Max: 23

TREND FOR MONDAY, TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY:
Fine. Max temps: Mid low to mid 20s.

how can you have mid low? middle of the low 20;s?

so as you can see models change... patchy rain? we'll have to wait and see smile
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/03/2006 13:47

The next 3 hours movement of Glenda is critical to what weather we will get over the weekend.

It it crossing the Pilbra coast then we won't get much.

If it crosses between Onslow and Exmouth our chances improve a little, and if it hits exmouth our chances for some rain and wind improve even more
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/03/2006 15:05

It's not looking great for us right now, we need it to cross between Onslow and exmouth if we are going to get anything out of this.

We can forget the GASP situation happening because Glenda is much further south than it was predicting.

If it crosses around Mardie we might only pick up a light shower or two on Saturday evening. Unless it pops back offshore around Denham, which it might do but it will head quickly SE once it does
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/03/2006 15:21

OCF is still prediciting around 30mm for the Perth region for the weekend. I think even if it crosses near mardie which looks fairly likely it wont start to turn to the east for a while so we still will get a fair amount from her, probably not 30mm but 10-15mm maybe.
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/03/2006 15:36

BOM is saying perth will get very little rain... OK they change the forcast almost every update so its hard to work out what the bom think!

I would say TC will cross at mardie as well tim... Going from the radar tracking and other tracking maps I have seen...

I hope she lingers for a while... its a BIG system... the more south she goes the better our chances of good rains!!
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/03/2006 15:53

The poor old BOM are on a hiding to nothing when forecasting TC's.. they have to present the worst senario to the Pilbara coast residents.. and then cover all bases by having an alert down to Kalbarri at the same time.. They may have their own ideas but I'm not sure we are going to hear what they are.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/03/2006 17:59

Cyclone watch extends to Jurien bay! eek eek

If Glenda stays inland there is no way she will she be a cyclone within 100km of Kalbarri
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/03/2006 18:05

interesting that the watch has been extended further south along the coast
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/03/2006 18:10

I think it's just to cover there arses, just in case Glenda pops off the coast around Denham and tracks down the coast. ECMWF is the only model doing this.
Every other model has it moving Se through the goldfields.
I doubt Perth would be put on a TC watch
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/03/2006 18:27

i didnt realise how close Jurien bay was to perth if it does pop out the other side i would expect perth to go under a watch
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/03/2006 18:37

Not unless it's still a strong cat 2 and is moving fast. The SST's drop pretty quickly and shear is very strong. If it pops off the Denham coast don't expect it to intensify it will continue to weaken into a depression
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/03/2006 19:38

Kirk she has not crossed YET... Seems she might cross closer to Onslow than we all thought... she is certainly running along the coast though... the centre of the eye must be just off the cost by a few Kms... we might get the good rains down here yet!!!
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/03/2006 19:53

perth forcast has changed again

It will be fine though becoming cloudy during tomorrow with E/SE winds, fresh
and gusty at times overnight and in the morning. It will be cloudy on Saturday
with some rain expected. The rain should clear overnight to a fine day on
Sunday. Fine and cool to mild weather should continue through Monday.


MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR PERTH FOR:
Saturday : Windy. Rain periods. Min: 16 Max: 24
Sunday : Early rain then fine day. Min: 13 Max: 23
Monday : Fine. Min: 9 Max: 23
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/03/2006 19:54

shear is strong but it has decreased from 100knots to 70 knots i do realise that is strong
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/03/2006 22:23

Anything above 20 knots can weaken a TC, anything above 50knots rips it apart completely.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/03/2006 22:32

latest forcast has glenda as a cat 2 NE of Kalbarri where the one before had her as a cat 1 interesting
Posted by: dlovely

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/03/2006 22:57

is this bloody thing comin to Perth or not, I think we are all trying to talk ourselves out of it... I need to go and get a torch, because the one thing we will be without is power !
anyone want to make the call yet ?
Posted by: davo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/03/2006 01:53

I dunno, my gut feeling is no, but that may just be due to past cyclone paths in this position. Maybe this one will be different? Morning reports will be telling
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/03/2006 02:05

It won't get to us as a TC, we should get within 200km at best of the centre of the depression. All models now agree once it gets to around Kalbarri it will head SE very quickly.
I would be very surprised to see it still a TC around Kalbari anyway.
It's main source of warm SST's have cut off and it's shear is increasing. It will probably be a cat 1 by noon tomorrow around Carnarvon. If it defies the odds and pops off the coast around denham it will have it's warm SST's but shear is still there.

For Perth to be on a watch the system would have to speed up to around 60km/hr by morning and be heading Sw. Even if it does this it should still get caught up by the prevailing NW'ly jet.

So short answer is no, we will have to wait longer. If GFS is any indication it might only be a week smile
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/03/2006 02:07

Having said all that we should still get some rain from the system
Posted by: dlovely

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/03/2006 02:09

ok will sit tight, bit of rain would be nice though, gardens are looking very very dry !
Posted by: davo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/03/2006 10:13

You're right, dlovely, our lawn could do with a bit of water! But like Kirk says, next week could be something to look forward to as well. All the models seem to be pretty sure about it. C'mon, Huey, I dare ya! smile
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/03/2006 12:22

Amazing to see the variation on the models for rain on Saturday.

LAPS : 80mm
MLAPS: 85mm
GASP: 3mm
GFS: 0mm
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/03/2006 12:43

Ok my brave prediction a week ago for a west coast crossing has finally been nailed but it got close. Welllll sort of close. The models had it going down the west coast for a while but it has moved just inside of the west coast. Cyclones are imposible to predict as has been stated prior but I still think I did pretty well based upon evidence at the time smile

One advantage with the new cyclone path is that It will come closer to me in Esperance so that is a bonus

GFS is interesting but it is all over the place and I don't trust it much that far out with tropical systems.

We will see in any case

cheers
MikeF
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/03/2006 15:54

well thats the end of glenda bring on the next system maby we might get something out of that
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/03/2006 18:34

Here comes the rain.....or will it get here?
www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR062.shtml
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/03/2006 20:11

I reckon Turbo.. That ex TC low is coming straight down the coast.. smile
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/03/2006 20:39

looks like we gonna get something out of it afterall i have noticed the increasing winds throughout the day feels like the rain is not to far away
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/03/2006 20:43

look at the rain coming from the north, nothing heavy but very expansive, i reckon bom has underestimated this low
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/03/2006 21:04

very dark to the north can see the rain coming
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/03/2006 21:25

Awesome sunset too! anyone else see it?

Here it is:
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/03/2006 22:37

yes i saw that mate it was a beauty
Posted by: SimonB

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/04/2006 00:39

Just to show others how slow moving this is, it's just started raining in Yokine, 20 mins north of the CBD :-)
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/04/2006 00:50

raining here now about 10 mins north of the CBD
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/04/2006 01:05

not a drop here in success (or jandakot for people who don't know where i mean)

on the bom radar it shows that the rain is missing here mad

doubt i will see anything, though fingers crossed :rolleyes:
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/04/2006 02:16

Not raining here yet Vinny either...don't think we will get much, heading south easterly...
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/04/2006 03:05

Been raining here non stop since approx 9pm. Nothing to be excited about though.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/04/2006 11:05

Landed up raining almost all night, only stopped an hour or so ago here. Total for the night here was 9mm which matches the metro site. Doesnt look like we will get much more today, though it is raining very lightly at the moment. Great to hear rain on the roof again though smile
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/04/2006 11:18

Yeah, nice Tim.. 10mm here so we about the same this time smile
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/04/2006 11:20

well the rain was better than a kick in the pants i guess coudl get some more this time next week GFS has landfall of a cyclone in the same spot as glenda did by next friday
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/04/2006 12:20

I ended up with about 8mm here in Jane Brook from the overnight rain. The best part about it was the fresh air rain smell!! mmm loved it. smile
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/04/2006 16:37

Ended up with 40 mm all up out of the event in Esperance. Will be the break to the season down here smile

It looks interesting for cyclone development later on this week into next week.

Won't hedge a west coast crossing yet but there definately looks like a cyclone developing somewhere up there.
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/04/2006 22:17

hehe Mike! The latest EC has the Tropical Low heading south..towards Perth... YEAH right...like we are going to believe that after the last 3 dissapointments. frown :p

I will believe Perth is going to get heavy rain from a Tropical system when I see it on Perth local radar. wink
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/04/2006 22:19

hahahahahaha i am with you there :p :rolleyes: :p :rolleyes:
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/04/2006 23:21

well i did end up with some rain.... possibly about 9-10mm.

the temps are just right at present. hope this is not the weather pattern next month!

we'll have to wait and see
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/04/2006 01:00

JungleJim...

Have already had the displeasure of being in one 60mm storm this year in the Mandurah area...not that in need of being in another one :p
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/04/2006 20:55

the GFs model has a low or cyclone coming down the coast in a weeks time hmm
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/04/2006 12:59

so far fine all week
Posted by: wiz

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/04/2006 18:42

The new forecast page for Perth is annoying. Ok the 7 day forecast is good, but there is no commentry about the forecast which they always had and it looks like they have got rid of the 8:45pm forecast. As the current forecast says:

The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:50 am WST Wednesday.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/04/2006 19:35

yes i dont like it either
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/04/2006 10:31

I agree..these new forecasts are very plain and vague! Hardly any info in them at all!

I'm not happy with them either.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/04/2006 11:26

Not only have they knocked the late night update but the mid morning one too (8:30am) so they have gone from 5 updates a day to 3! Will be interesting to see how much info the forecast have when we actually have some weather! smile Cause although they may be rather light on at the moment, the weather doesnt exactly require that much to describe it at the moment does it! smile
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/04/2006 12:33

lol no it doesnt what weather almost forgot what rain looked like untill ther other night when the remains of tc glenda came through laugh laugh
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/04/2006 14:07

Quote:
Originally posted by Tim S:
Not only have they knocked the late night update but the mid morning one too (8:30am) so they have gone from 5 updates a day to 3! Will be interesting to see how much info the forecast have when we actually have some weather! smile Cause although they may be rather light on at the moment, the weather doesnt exactly require that much to describe it at the moment does it! smile
I'm sure it won't stop their NOWcasting wink when we get unexpected thunderstorms..and you see a special update in the forecasts laugh
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/04/2006 20:26

Seems like a string of glorious days ahead apart from a brief interruption on Sunday. Whilst its fairly boring weather and I'd like to see some of the wet stuff, you've got to appreciate it while it lasts especially when you get 2 weeks straight of cloud covered skies in winter.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/04/2006 23:57

As I said in the Cyclone thread, it seems to have changed to a more southwesterly path and rounding exmouth...which means we may be in for a drenching in the next few days or two.

The BOM certainly have had some difficulties with their weather forecasting for Perth due to all these cyclones
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/04/2006 09:32

well it would be nice to get some decent rain from this system
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/04/2006 13:57

doesn look liek that we will get anything much from hubert unless he gains same major strength so bring on the cold fronts and low pressure systems for some action please shocked shocked
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 07/04/2006 14:31

Squid he will cross north of exmouth... I wished he would bring us rains... but we will have to wait longer yet...
Posted by: NZAAS

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/04/2006 07:42

Shouldve stayed in N.Z laugh
Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
doesn look liek that we will get anything much from hubert unless he gains same major strength so bring on the cold fronts and low pressure systems for some action please shocked shocked
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/04/2006 23:18

hehe michael fancy seeing you here lol
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/04/2006 23:53

does anyone have a date they reckon the first cold front will hit perth?
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/04/2006 23:54

i think april the 26th
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/04/2006 12:55

Did any see the cool cloud formations this morning? Nice bank of low level stratus with a unusaully sharply defined leading edge, looked cool with the sun shining on it, slmost looked like a sea fog rolling in. Unfortunatly saw this while riding to work without my camera, d'oh, though the high res vis sat shows it up fairly well, so I've saved that. smile

You know the weathers non-eventful when you start getting exciting about the clouds smile Though Saturday was a great day, nice and warm, with little wind, perfect smile
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/04/2006 13:13

haha i know what you mean tim yes i did c that this morning almost forgot what the clouds looked like
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/04/2006 13:47

it was 8 degrees this morning
Posted by: njamos

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/04/2006 23:05

Does anyone know what we can expect for April. Rainfall, the average etc? Thanks.
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/04/2006 00:32

Had a shower of rain up here already tonight. Perhaps more tomorrow?
Posted by: Cory75

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/04/2006 01:07

I'm wondering how the weather is going to behave later this month myself njamos. The wife and I will be visiting Perth for the first time in just a couple of weeks time (from Canada). We're hoping the sunny warm weather holds out.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/04/2006 09:12

Yeah Blue Skies I was most pleasently surprised this morning to see the ground nice and wet and 3mm in my gauge! not bad for drizzle patches smile It seems quite regularly when Perth gets drizzle we in the Northern suburbs get a bit more, must have something to do with the coast line or something.

Hey Cory and njamos, April is typically in the transition period from Summer to Winter and consequently you get a real mixture of weather. Though what you get and when depends on the year, this year we have had a colder and wetter than normal summer and so far autumn has been rather dry. I think the rest of April will be quite dry and mild and mid May will see the first solid winter cold fronts coming through.

If you want a more expert opinion on what to expect in April check here: (March in review at top and April what to expect down the bottom)
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/04/2006 10:28

it was nice to hear a bit of rain on the roof last night
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/04/2006 11:53

there is a cold front due in next week woo hoo!
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/04/2006 13:49

yes there is bring it on
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/04/2006 20:24

but there is a 1035hp high after it... hope we don't get stuck under the ridge
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/04/2006 20:48

someone kill the high lol laugh :p laugh :p
Posted by: NZAAS

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/04/2006 08:54

Bring it here We getting South west Gales as usual
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/04/2006 14:13

Weather starting to get a little boring hope those cold fronts actually materialise, have a feeling BOM maybe being a little optimistic as far as the cold fronts are concerned
Posted by: njamos

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/04/2006 23:08

Quote:
Originally posted by Tim S:
Yeah Blue Skies I was most pleasently surprised this morning to see the ground nice and wet and 3mm in my gauge! not bad for drizzle patches smile It seems quite regularly when Perth gets drizzle we in the Northern suburbs get a bit more, must have something to do with the coast line or something.

Hey Cory and njamos, April is typically in the transition period from Summer to Winter and consequently you get a real mixture of weather. Though what you get and when depends on the year, this year we have had a colder and wetter than normal summer and so far autumn has been rather dry. I think the rest of April will be quite dry and mild and mid May will see the first solid winter cold fronts coming through.

If you want a more expert opinion on what to expect in April check here: (March in review at top and April what to expect down the bottom)
Thanks Tim. I've been a bit puzzled by this summmer which is why I've asked. Possibly the shortest summer we've had. Which is great because I'm more of an Autumn person. I'm finding it colder in the mornings recently.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/04/2006 23:15

Yeah I am loving this weather at the moment, though would love to see some action weather soon. smile Dont have much hope for the Sunday/Monday front for Perth, looks to be a southern coastal event to me. Should be a rather good easter long weekend though, especially Friday and Saturday.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 13/04/2006 00:59

Hmm Is that a tropical disturbance in the latest GFS chart on 168 hours, and if so is it likely to head east?

I know its a long way down the track, but it looks pretty damn significant.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 13/04/2006 12:03

another cool morning...
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 13/04/2006 14:33

i dont see anything egan or do i need glasses confused confused doesn look like we are gonna get much from this cold front ppfftt frown frown
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 13/04/2006 22:09

Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
i dont see anything egan or do i need glasses confused confused doesn look like we are gonna get much from this cold front ppfftt frown frown
As a WAFL fanatic I am glad the weather is going to clear up...we need all the fans we can get watching this fantastic competition, a wet cold miserable day on Easter Monday would not have been good in trying to attract a crowd.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/04/2006 11:12

hmm gfs has something appraching the west coast next week
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/04/2006 00:07

perth has had some boring
weather this autumn lets hope some cold fronts or tornadoes or something interesting happens soon.
Posted by: njamos

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/04/2006 00:56

Tornados? I'd love to see that. All we've had is endless blue skies and I can't remember the last time I've seen a cloud.

We're meant to get rain tomorrow if that's something?
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/04/2006 05:32

Couple of nice cells to the N/E associated with the trough. Storms yes storms! smile ok too far and it is 3.30 in the morn...but they are still forming! Line of showers moving thru the S/W now too. Mt Barker has had 2.4mm up to 3.30am.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/04/2006 12:14

when will the cold fronts arrive? confused
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/04/2006 12:56

A cold front has just passed Vinny, except it was very weak, give it until May then we should start to see some strong fronts.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/04/2006 14:04

anyone get much fomr that cold frot pretty much a fizzer just 30 mins of drizzle and that was it windy now thou
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/04/2006 15:33

Friday is 29c and possible Thunderstorms...such a summer day.

Then Saturday is Thunderstorms clearing, it must be one big Thunderstorm, anybody got any information?
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/04/2006 16:38

what thunderstorms lol nearly fell off my chair
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/04/2006 20:14

The forecast for this Friday/Saturday.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/04/2006 09:38

brrrrrrrrrrrrrrr cold night last night eek
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/04/2006 13:21

It sure was Squid, a number of sites around the metro area getting low single figures, only record I can see though is Pearce, with their 2.0C last night beating there previous lowest for April of 3.6C. Though this figure seems a bit odd as their lowest for March is 1.3C and May is -0.6C. Was a bit colder here than Perth's 7.0C, I recorded 6.3C as a min last night. Definitely feeling like winter at the moment with these low temps but looks as though Autumn will return at the end of week smile
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/04/2006 15:14

what a suprise our friday/saturday thunderstroms have been taken away from us frown
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/04/2006 19:27

Precis: Fine.

Forecast for Tuesday
Fine. A cool morning. Light winds becoming moderate S'ly in the afternoon.


Precis: Fine.
City: Min 7 Max 22
Mandurah: Min 9 Max 21
UV Index: 7 [HIGH]
Fire Danger: Coastal Plain: HIGH
Hills: HIGH

Wednesday Fine. Min 8 Max 23
Thursday Fine. Min 10 Max 26
Friday Fine, cloud increasing. Min 12 Max 29
Saturday Fine. Min 15 Max 28
Sunday Fine. Min 13 Max 27
Monday Fine. Min 13 Max 26


well fine fine and fine looks like all week.

has there evr been a year when cold fronts have not hit perth in may?

how come darwin is still getting lows as well isn't their wet season over?
Posted by: Seabreeze

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/04/2006 19:34

It should be over but it isn't over, I think it will wrap up during early May for the tropics.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/04/2006 10:10

another cold night brrrrrrrrrr
Posted by: NZAAS

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/04/2006 11:41

Wus laugh
and from New Zealand where it gets colder wink
Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
another cold night brrrrrrrrrr
Posted by: Willoughby

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/04/2006 12:56

Quote:
Originally posted by NZAAS:
Wus laugh
and from New Zealand where it gets colder wink
Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
[b] another cold night brrrrrrrrrr
[/b]
Well I don't think Aucklanders know what cold is.. like yourself wink
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/04/2006 13:05

I'm living with two Aucklanders at the moment (yes I am also going through therapy to help me cope! wink smile ) and they are finding our cold spell very cold indeed, pestering me to get the heater out and get it going, whereas I am obviously made of tougher stuff because I am finding it cool but not cold. smile Though we all know that kiwis aren't made of the same stuff as us Aussies dont we! wink :p
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/04/2006 13:37

it is not cold enough for heaters yet. laugh

looks like a cold front coming next week. Showers on Saturday?
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/04/2006 00:35

I would be keeping an eye out on TC monica, because she has some serious potential to give us some rain, either directly or in directly.

Most models suggest she will be another TC to visit all 3 states, of course if she sits to the NW of Carnarvan then chances are any cold fronts around our way will drag down a lot of moisture giving us lots of rain, or of course she might be our well overdue TC to hit us.
Of course all of this is still around 2 weeks away! which is mind boggling!

Still I just thought I would float the idea, because chances are if she makes it to WA she is going to be one hell of an intense system!
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/04/2006 01:18

Quote:
Originally posted by Kirk:
I would be keeping an eye out on TC monica, because she has some serious potential to give us some rain, either directly or in directly.

Most models suggest she will be another TC to visit all 3 states, of course if she sits to the NW of Carnarvan then chances are any cold fronts around our way will drag down a lot of moisture giving us lots of rain, or of course she might be our well overdue TC to hit us.
Of course all of this is still around 2 weeks away! which is mind boggling!

Still I just thought I would float the idea, because chances are if she makes it to WA she is going to be one hell of an intense system!
Will this also be one of the latest ever cyclones - Late April?

Will be laughing very hard if we are in Cyclone Watch in May laugh

Its been a very active end of the Cyclone season.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/04/2006 16:53

Our thunderstorms for Friday have come back...after we lost them for a few days...
Posted by: njamos

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/04/2006 21:44

Am I seeing things...thunderstorms on Friday? Really looking forward to this but I hope they won't be the thunderstorms with high humidity.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/04/2006 17:25

looks like showers next week may eventuate

did we get to 27 today cos i think it didn't even get close!?

hope to see some rain soon like may last year
Posted by: njamos

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/04/2006 21:49

I found it a bit muggy and wore shorts for the first time in weeks.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/04/2006 23:44

nice to see some showers in the forcast smile
Posted by: SimonB

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/04/2006 00:35

It's ANZAC Day on Tuesday, the threat of early morning showers is a tradition in Perth smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/04/2006 01:33

how much do you think we will get in mm
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/04/2006 10:20

amazing to actually see some activity on the radar this morning but all storms are moving to the SE sigh
Posted by: bulldog

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/04/2006 11:24

got a few good lightning strikes here in collie at the moment.1mm and still coming down
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/04/2006 13:25

Interesting forecast for Perth today by the BoM:

Quote:


Perth Forecast
Issued at 11:20 am WST on Friday 21 April 2006

Warning summary
Nil.

Forecast for Friday
A shower or two, with lengthy fine periods. Moderate NE winds becoming NW then
SW in the afternoon.

Precis: Shower or two.
City: Max 25
Mandurah: Max 24
The temperature at 11:20am was 27.3C and rising?! :rolleyes:
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/04/2006 13:59

Well looks as though they did an update to fix it:

Quote:


UPDATED Perth Forecast
Issued at 11:35 am WST on Friday 21 April 2006

Warning summary
Nil.

Forecast for Friday
A shower or two, with lengthy fine periods. Moderate NE winds becoming NW then
SW in the afternoon.

Precis: Shower or two.
City: Max 28
Mandurah: Max 26
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/04/2006 15:49

And they still got it wrong after that update wink

Max of 31C in the City so far today.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/04/2006 17:10

a very warm day today good for storms
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/04/2006 18:27

We had a fantastic storm here this morning. We got 8mm out of it. It did get muggy this afternoon and got to 25.

:cheers: Jules
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/04/2006 02:07

Thought it was warmer then 25!

So bloody muggy as well.
Posted by: njamos

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/04/2006 15:50

We got rain but I didn't hear any storms. Have I missed something?

Yes it got very muggy...just like I knew it would.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/04/2006 19:20

actally been having showers today amazing i am liking tomorows forcast

Forecast for Tuesday
A few showers, increasing for a period during the middle of the day with the
chance of a thunderstorm. Moderate to fresh NW winds becoming SW'ly in the
afternoon.
bring on the storms
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/04/2006 20:02

I ended up with 3.6mm from 9pm yesterday to 9am today. All of that fell before 11.30pm, which brings my yearly total so far to 67mm! cool

Looks like fun tomorrow with this front hey? It seems to be moving quite fast would ya'll agree?
Is that the reason for the TS warning?

Tim, sorry I couldnt come to the meeting on sunday....hope it went well smile

:cheers: TKup
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/04/2006 23:24

There's a nice pool of cold air behind it and warm air ahead, that's a good recipe for thunderstorms. I don't think speed has much to do with it. But I'm looking forward to it. Between the front and Monica reaching Darwin I wont know which way to look!
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/04/2006 09:33

rain rain so nice to hear it on the roof last night i see form the obs that between 2 and 11mm fell across the region with more forcast for today
Posted by: davo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/04/2006 15:58

12mm so far today at my place. Hopefully some more is brewing out there...maybe a TS too smile
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/04/2006 17:05

well another nice drop in the bucket falls of 4-13mm across the region and more coming laugh
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/04/2006 09:53

when do you think another front will hit.

by the way the bom sasy there is a 50-50 chance of rainfall this may.... i remember last month last year they got it wrong so i think anythings possible
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/04/2006 11:46

Some nice falls at my place.. 33mm over the last week. Now up to 115mm year to date which is not too bad heading into May.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/04/2006 19:13

Lert.....you bugger you must be stealing all of my rain AGAIN!!!! laugh
My god you are doing well YTD. Month to date I have 21.6mm, and YTD 83.4mm. 12.9mm yesterday, kinda halfway between Perf and Swanbourne, which makes sense topographically too!.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/04/2006 22:06

Yeah Lert always steals everyones rain! :p
My figures are almost as good though, 30mm in the last week and 42mm for the month. Total for the year now up to 92mm smile
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/04/2006 10:12

some places were sure cold last night 2.5 at jandakot airport and 3.7 ay perth airport
eek
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/04/2006 17:53

Any thoughts on how much rainfall we'll get this winter? I reckon that we'll probably get below average rainfall but that opinion is based purely on the trend over the last 30 years of decreasing falls, I've lost all trust in BOM predictions though they cant lose now with the 50:50 bet
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/04/2006 23:16

i will go for above average
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/04/2006 05:28

Yeah I'm going to go with above average too...and hopefully the Mundaring Weir will spill over! laugh

It's been a while since it happened!

http://www.watercorporation.com.au/dams/dams_mundaring.cfm

Some nice pics of it spilling over in previous years on that website.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/04/2006 12:43

looking at the synoptic charts doesn't look like any cold fronts near perth frown
Posted by: njamos

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/04/2006 14:52

Looks like a boring week for weather...too much sun and very little rain!
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/04/2006 21:23

boring fine weather for the next week shocked shocked
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/05/2006 01:49

ABC said it was the coldest April for 25 years...all sorts of records are being broken this year...
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/05/2006 11:37

Yes definitely a very cold April, ave min temps were almost a record too, with us getting 11.7C for April just missing out on the record of 11.6C set back in 1914! we had 9 nights of 10C or below which must be some sort of record, or close to it I would think. Also we only had 6 days of above average maxs this month.
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/05/2006 14:02

WOW! Winter is going to be interesting... With these sorts of temps coming out now (april) imagine what the middle of winter will be like!
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/05/2006 18:23

Yeah, Rat, I'm starting to wonder too. I'm expecting it to be at least an average winter, maybe slightly wetter than the average. Plenty of rain for those who want it, anyway.

Anyone seen the long range chart for next Monday? It's looking a little soggy at the moment.
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/05/2006 21:32

On the whole the last 6 months we have been having extremely cold weather, is there any sort of reasoning why we are continually breaking these cold weather records for nearly every month?

It will be interesting to see how our winter is...I hope it is not to cold.
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/05/2006 10:39

My guess as to why its been so cool is that the winds this April have come more from the Southwest which obviously brings with it cooler air. Interesting that we didn't get more rain though
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/05/2006 10:41

oh and by the way I got my information from the daily observations page at bom if you look at the near-record cold december you'll find that the wind direction virtually never went out of a SW direction
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/05/2006 11:43

no cold fronts this week or next no rain either.

if it weren;t for that desal plant this year i think we would be out of water going ny this winter so far
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/05/2006 19:41

Hailstorm, I am more wondering why for the past 6 months we have had record low maximum/minimum and increased rainfall.

Not just in April.
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/05/2006 10:53

I wouldn't go as far as to say that we've had record low temps for the whole 6 months, in both March and Feb we had above avg temps, and November had an avg temp 1.2 degress higher than December. But in the months that we have had lower than average temps in the last 6 months, those being Dec, Jan and April like I said before, would probably be due to the frequency of SW winds in these months. No doubt we've had a cooler than average last 6 months and this would almost certainly be due to the lack of wind coming from the interior and the almost continuous onshore winds we had in December and April
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/05/2006 10:59

The rainfall is an interesting one Egan, perth's summer rainfall is pretty hit and miss but over the last 20 or so years there seems to be a trend towards increasing summer rainfall, why I dont know, but perhaps with global warming tropical moisture can travel further south than once possible. It's hard to read into the rainfall figures though as there pretty low to start with.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/05/2006 11:50

Perth's rainfall over summer has always been fairly hit and miss. We rarely get any significant falls over summer and the rare occasions we do boost the averages up to make it look like rain is a bit more common than it actually is during summer. This summer wasn't really that wet, it was just that we had a few semi decent falls that added up.

The last year or so has been very up and down in Perth, starting with last years May and June where we had over 400mm then July where we got the second lowest rainfall total for that month on record. Then winter and spring seemed to drag well until the new year, followed by a quick burst of summer over Feb and March then back into cooler than normal temps for April. So if this trend continues who knows what this winter will bring. I do have a feeling it will be a cooler/drier than normal start followed by a wet and slightly warmer July and August.

As for the reasons for perths weird weather, I think the indian ocean surface temps have a significant effect on our weather and over the last 9 months or so they have consistantly been below average. Also I think there is some carry on effect from La nina where the pressure systems change there normal pattern over here due to whats happening on the other side of Oz.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/05/2006 14:44

i have a terrible feeling this may be a month with 0mm looking at the long range forecast till wednesday... no cold fronts, no lows just one high

looks like el nino conditions?

will we run out of water?

and nz is flooding grrr mad mad
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/05/2006 23:37

The average rainfall for this month is 122mm, so unless we get a series of moderate to strong cold fronts in the second half of May, I have a feeling we're only going to see half of the average rainfall.
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/05/2006 23:49

Quote:
Originally posted by vinny:
looks like el nino conditions?

will we run out of water?
When everyone is pointed talking about the la nina? I don't think so. Not when the dams are 30%, which is far better than it was a few years back at this time of year.

FYI this week of sunny mild weather is very typical for this time of year. It's why it's my favourite time of year! (sorry all those who like storms, I do too but...) Also, typically, we have usually have some serious looking fronts that appear in the long range forecasts, they look impressive with lots of cloud on the sta pics but which die on the doorstep as they meet the dry heat left over from summer. Maybe not this year wink But you can almost guarantee there will be a front later in the month that will break through with strong winds and low low pressure. Then there will be some excitement!

Now I know this might be cliched but when I was kid and we had three terms of school, not four like it is now, the first lot of holidays were the middle two weeks of May. And almost every year it would pour down with rain for a few days at least with the passage of a serious front. I think you just need to be a little more patient here. The rain will come!
Posted by: Lottie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/05/2006 23:52

That is the most positive thing i have read for a long time.....thank you smile Everyone else is talking doom and gloom....i so hope you are right....Flooding rain is what we desperately need here
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/05/2006 10:30

well i have asked my fellow kiwis to send over some flood rains for us they are on their way wink wink
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/05/2006 12:15

even next wednesday there is a high waiting to domainate

well next wednesday will be the 10 may so that leaves 31-10 = 21 days for 120mm to fall

that is 3 weeks

lets hope something falls soon

i think all next week is fine too by the charts mad
Posted by: NZAAS

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/05/2006 06:41

it always looks as though you will get W or SW from the highs but unlike N.Z they get pushed under by the continent
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 05/05/2006 14:06

fine fine and more fine the highs just keep rolling across fine for the next 7-10 days shocked shocked
Posted by: NZAAS

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/05/2006 05:34

I am sure most people across there would complain if they had more than 3 days of our current wet weather and want the sun back here where again its wet
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/05/2006 10:20

well still no rain not happy jan mad
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/05/2006 11:01

1.8mm here overnight...

Jandakot had 8.2mm to 9am...not bad for a Light shower or two wink which was the forecast last night.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 06/05/2006 14:44

I had 3.6mm to 9am then another 1mm at 9 something this morn. As JJ said not too bad for a shower, or drizzle:) 88mm for the year! smile
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/05/2006 11:56

finally some showers forecast smack bang on the 14th may sunday and monday
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 08/05/2006 22:16

well nothing now but i hope soon this pattern will break :rolleyes:
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 09/05/2006 11:29

no rain today just boring fine weather though cold last night eek
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/05/2006 15:11

another day of fine fine and fine weather

mad mad mad mad mad mad mad
Posted by: NZAAS

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/05/2006 15:46

Rain here yet again unfortunately

Rub it in mate laugh
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/05/2006 16:18

fine fine and more fine zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz shocked
Posted by: NZAAS

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/05/2006 17:57

You should come back to Northland it will be a mud swimming pool there just like here.....the models show rain till at least next Wednesday here shocked
Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
fine fine and more fine zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz shocked
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/05/2006 18:23

dam levels are low too!
Posted by: beefy

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 10/05/2006 21:35

Man our weather is nothing short of perfect at the moment. So wicked.
Posted by: Melodie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/05/2006 00:05

Can you believe the forecast for this week? I haven't been on here for ages as I gave up mourning the summer we didn't have. Installed central heating in my home because that is how much I loathe cold weather. And now, look at this forecast. Even had a swim at Cott today, was unbelievable. NOW we get summer?? Nights are still shilly though. Sunday- 28...unreal. And sun, sun, sun. That's why I live in WA! Missed summer or not, it's still great weather 99% of the time...well, 98%.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/05/2006 01:07

Vinny,

The rain will come this month, maybe not over that many days.
Expect a day or two of heavy falls which will get us close to the average.
May can be very hit and miss, although some of Perths most severe weather has come in May.
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/05/2006 11:07

whilst the fine weather is getting kind of boring, may as well enjoy it while it lasts. Beautiful nights in which to sleep in and warm days, something that we'll probably wont get for another 4 to 5 months.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/05/2006 11:40

who agrees with me that this will possibly be the driest may on record?!
Posted by: Egan

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/05/2006 16:22

Quote:
Originally posted by hailstorm:
whilst the fine weather is getting kind of boring, may as well enjoy it while it lasts. Beautiful nights in which to sleep in and warm days, something that we'll probably wont get for another 4 to 5 months.
Or if last summer is anything to go by...6 months.

Vinny you were complaining about the cold during summer...we can't have it both ways.

I am enjoying the lack of cold fronts...
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/05/2006 16:42

Nice and warm at the moment, current max is 28.9C which is about as hot as it gets this late in the season, the latest ever 30C was on the 9th May. Though I am looking forward to some rain, I still am enjoying this extended dry warmth. smile
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/05/2006 18:06

Ditto Tim I'm gonna head off to Betty Park now for a swim smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/05/2006 18:35

Updated BoM forecast has 29C for tomorrow and 30C for Sat! if it makes it to 30C will be the latest 30C day.
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 11/05/2006 23:42

Really? Didn't we have a 30 at the start of June a few years back?
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/05/2006 10:43

Dont think so Blue Skies, the highest June temp is the 28.1C back on the 5th June 1975. We had some very warm may days a few years back, getting 34.3 and 32.7 on the 1st of May 2002 and 2003 respectively, maybe thats what your thinking of?

A real mix of mins this morning with some getting rather cool while others quite mild, eg. Perth metro had 7.5C. Jandakot 6.4C, while the airport had 13.1C and Pearce 15.4C. Shows how much influence a bit of a breeze has on the min temps.

Just noticed that Jandakot has risen 10.6C in the last hour, from 7.7C at 7:38am to 18.3C at 8:38am! eek
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/05/2006 11:40

we may get to 30 and we may not/
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/05/2006 14:00

well the temp is 26 already maby we might pop 30 today and maby 31 tomorow i was nto expecting any more 30 degree temps
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 12/05/2006 20:55

well i was close with my perdiction of todays temp 29.5 not bad lets see what tomorrow brings
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 13/05/2006 16:00

We have TS in the forecast hey? The AVN has the LI at around 0 for Monday, with very little CAPE. So it will be interesting. That high level cloud is already starting to move in too.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/05/2006 13:53

showers and thunderstorms for tomorow is the forcast eek smile hopefully this will come to pass
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/05/2006 19:03

Well the showers will, plenty of them approaching from the NW at the moment, looks good for thunderies tomorrow morning too, though I imagine they will be embedded and very hard to spot if they do develop, so much cloud! Should see some decent rain totals tonight and tomorrow morning too, about time too smile
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/05/2006 19:11

yes watching the rain appraching the coast coudl this be our 1st decent front of the season? looking forward to the totals smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/05/2006 21:46

Some strikes being picked up off the coast, though probably 100-200km out. Though looks as though there is plenty of action out there, just hope not all of it dies before reaching us.
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/05/2006 22:55

Seems to be somthing wrong with the radar atm? there is a line about 80km out that is blocking some echos. Anyway, we've had nothing here as at 9pm.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/05/2006 23:46

Turbo I have noticed that too. Off to the NW. The rain seems to be stopping there. I am getting 1 stike/min of lightning atm. Mot too sure how far my detector detects, 100kms or so. Its a 1-wire detector if that means anything to anyone?

All the rain has just disappeared off the radar as of just after 8pm. Is it because of the radar not seeming to be picking the rain to the NW as Turbo said?
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 14/05/2006 23:58

The WZ radar often comes up blank on my pc, especially when I have it on loop. If you refresh it or close it and reopen it normaly comes back up. Having said that, the rain all looks great until it gets to within 50kms of Perth then it just seems to die. Has anyone seen any lightning flashes yet?
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/05/2006 00:16

Not as yet Turbo. Lightning det just went off again.....and again.....and agian. maybe gonna drive down to the beach for a look.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/05/2006 00:50

Just went for a drive to the beach. Lightning off to the W/N/W every 5 mins or so. nothing too much.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/05/2006 03:50

1.50am. Radar looks GREAT to the N/W! Lightning more and more frequent. 96 strikes in the last 30 mins!
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/05/2006 05:04

Wanneroo just had 9.8mm from the little storm. Vasse has had 15.6mm. eek Got that info from here...fantastic site. http://agspsrv34.agric.wa.gov.au/climate/livedata/sumpages.htm they update near real-time.
Tim, you would have got a fair bit yeah? we seem to have missed out again here in Floreat. 1.5mm to 3am. some more hopefully on the way.
This is sad....its 3am and watching "rain" roll in by myself? :cheers:
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/05/2006 09:31

You werent watching it by yahself Tom! laugh crawled out of bed around 2:30ish and saw some good CC lightning, though got bored quickly as it was fairly infreqent and I was dead tired so went back to bed and listened to some of the best thunder I have heard for yonkers! long rolling rumble lasting around 3-5 seconds including at least one window shaking boom! definitely a sight/sound for sore eyes/ears! smile smile smile

oh yeah 13mm for me so far and its still coming down! smile might even be in with a chance to get to 20mm for this system if the follow up showers behind this front are any good... pouring down here now! smile

Pretty sure this is the front going through Perth now so I would imagine it will just be the odd shower today.
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/05/2006 11:34

Hey Chaser, I was up 2am until 2.45..good lighning and thunder but Tim was closer to it than me.. Had 10mm from the trough line, 20mm from the main front between 6.30am and 7am (40mm/hr is not too shabby for Perth) and another 3mm from showers up to 9am.. Total 33mm!!
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/05/2006 11:35

well 7mm for jandakot

and where i am now in bentley at curtin uni it is dry

no thnunderstorms here think thery were north?
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/05/2006 11:48

Quote:
Originally posted by Lert:
Hey Chaser, I was up 2am until 2.45..good lighning and thunder but Tim was closer to it than me.. Had 10mm from the trough line, 20mm from the main front between 6.30am and 7am (40mm/hr is not too shabby for Perth) and another 3mm from showers up to 9am.. Total 33mm!!
Good to see Lert aka 'Perth rain thief' living up to your reputation! :p smile 33mm! thats more than double what I got, though I havent checked it since 7:30am. It was hard to pinpoint where the lightning was coming from this morning, it didnt seem to move away very fast though.
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/05/2006 11:50

West Perth is also very dry ATM...
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/05/2006 11:50

the atms are dry in perth near the bank?
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/05/2006 12:16

got up at 2 20 am ans watched the lightening as you said tim it was not that frequent so i soon wenty bak to bed finally a stomr little but still a storm none the less heard it pour down a few times since then still quiet a bit of action on the 128km radar hope it stays together for us the bom were right on this one have to give it to them. does anyone have a link to a good lightning tracker for perth??
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/05/2006 12:16

STW out for the SW of the centeral west. I ended up with only 6.8mm.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/05/2006 12:18

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for locally Destructive Winds, localised flash flooding and large hail
For people in the southwest of the Central West District.
Issued at 10:00 am on Monday 15 May 2006

People are advised that there is a risk of severe thunderstorms during the next
few hours. Storms may be accompanied by locally destructive winds, localised
flash flooding and large hail that could result in damage to property. These
storms are expected to weaken during the afternoon.

eek a STW aswell we are doing well
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/05/2006 12:26

ooh cool smile
nice solid rain shower up here in Joondalup, steady heavy rain and not a breath of wind, perfect weather smile

Hey Squid, try this one: GPATS Lightning tracker click on Lightning monitor on the left hand side.

Theres some strikes where the STW is issued for

Wowzers, check out the gero 256k radar! red cells near Jurien! no wonder theres an STW out.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/05/2006 12:35

cherrs for that tim steady rain here atm and dead calm :cheers:
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/05/2006 13:37

Quote:
Originally posted by vinny:
the atms are dry in perth near the bank?
Vinny ATM = at the moment
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/05/2006 19:17

i know
i was being silly

looks like a decent front will come this time next week too woo hoo

showery and windy is what the bom says for monday next week.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/05/2006 23:02

Finished up with 18mm for this mornings system, brings my total for May to 20.5mm and the year 113mm.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/05/2006 23:34

yay the cold fronts are starting to come now a few days of fine weather and then the next front should arrive
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 15/05/2006 23:44

The thunderstorm passed by my place around 3am. Woke me up but I didn't go out to look - it was pouring with rain! Had some really heavy stuff for at least 5 mins - 8mm out of that. Then the front came through 7am and took the total up to 23mm. Another 4mm today from passing showers. Didn't start to dry out until 1.30pm.

Looks like it's going to a foggy morning tomorrow.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/05/2006 10:53

Yeah BS, I was fully expecting a foggy start too, there were perfect conditions for a nice thick one, though obviously not that perfect! smile the wind never really seemed to drop off as I thought it would.

Well now a few sunny and mild days before a few warm days and another hopefully good frontal/trough system at the start of the week. Hopefully this time it goes through the farming areas too as I think only patchy areas in the west of the ag areas got anything from yesterdays system.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/05/2006 13:24

Just been doing a bit of research into the history of May rainfall in Perth, its quite an interesting history! :cheers:

Tim S
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/05/2006 13:27

Looking like we could possibly reach our average rainfall (unlikely I know) with what looks like our first major front coming around the weekend, with such a dry May so far we definitely need it.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/05/2006 14:38

Gerro radar right now?? some severe cells off the coast.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 16/05/2006 16:34

yes i hav noticed thoses storms aswell hanging back in the trough and bring on the next front looks like it is going to be a good one going by the models
Posted by: Rat from Perth

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/05/2006 10:59

Teh next front... this weekend... NOOO I move house on Saturday... I want this fine weather to continue to at least sunday... Do you think I will get a fine day saturday?
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/05/2006 11:35

Quote:
Originally posted by hailstorm:
Looking like we could possibly reach our average rainfall (unlikely I know) with what looks like our first major front coming around the weekend, with such a dry May so far we definitely need it.
there is no front coming in the weekend
and how can we reach the average of 120mm in less than 2 weeks?
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/05/2006 11:49

Early next week most likely.
I wouldnt be too excited about it, all the models suggest it will be a weakish front. With possibly a weak cut off low forming
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/05/2006 13:54

i said around the weekend vinny not necessarily during it. reaching the avg is obviously not realistic but still quite possible.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/05/2006 13:56

forcast is for monday for the front
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/05/2006 13:57

i said around the weekend vinny not necessarily during it. reaching the avg is obviously not realistic but still quite possible.
Posted by: vinny

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/05/2006 14:05

bom now saying showers on monday and tuesday
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/05/2006 18:02

Have you seen the OCF? 22.5mm on Mon.8.7mm on Tues
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 17/05/2006 18:18

Yeah, it's looking interesting for early next week, especially if that low forms off the front. Will be watching the models closely over the next couple of days.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/05/2006 11:17

models are going form a low to develop on the front early next week could get some good falls on monday
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/05/2006 14:06

anyway yeah looks like more wet weather in june according to eldersweather.com.au
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/05/2006 14:11

If tims theory is correct then i hope june is not dry as well frown
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 18/05/2006 22:32

The more sunny days we have now the shorter winter will be which I think is great, otherwise it will feel like winter is dragging on and on if it lasts into spring, which seems to be the norm lately.
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/05/2006 16:23

looks like thunderstorms now?
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 19/05/2006 19:12

thunderstorms for tuesday looking good cool
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/05/2006 09:10

The models have been pretty changable on this event but they seem to have decided on a low developing off the west coast and deepening slowly as it moves across the SW land division and then off the south coast. I am not sure that I would be able to pinpoint the exact area of the heaviest rainfall at this stage based upon the variability of models on this event. It is interesting that the latest gfs model run
(19 may 18z) has a secondary cold front behind this though I am not too sure of that occuring exactly as that but it does show up how much a complex a situation that is coming for the early to mid part of next week.

Does anyone have any information/ideas on what the possibility of tornadoes are out of this?

Also

Anyone want to pin down rainfall totals for anyplace over any time? I will start it and say between monday night and friday night (the whole event) that perth area (metro) will receive between 35 and 50 mm and there will be isolated falls around the state of in the order of 120mm.

Anyone else want to brave their predictions?
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/05/2006 14:19

It looks better and better now in terms of overall rainfall. I reckon we in Perth will get about 60 mm over this event although it seems like a number of things could happen.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/05/2006 14:39

Goodaye Mike! Yeah it is defientely looking like this could be a very siignificant rain bearing system. The things that make me think that are the fact that there will be a very big blocking high over Victoria preventing the cold front/low from moving away too quick and if the low does develop around the capes as most of the models seem to think, it will be around the SW for a long period of time. Heaviest falls could be anywhere from Gero round to Esperance depending on where the circulation will be centered and for how long. Though I would put my money on the heaviest rain being on the lower west coast and south west district, ie. Perth down to Cape Leeuwin, with isolated heavy falls extending a reasonable way inland.

Good sign with the 11:20am update of the metro forecast, going for rain overnight Monday and rain periods and TS's on Tuesday, with showers continuing into Wednesday.

As far as Tornados I would think they could be a possibility with the front, though there are several signs that I feel point towards tornado development that are not there. I've noticed that the majority of cold air naders occur with fast moving fronts thrown up from a deep low far to the south, this is going to be a cut off low and it will be rather slow moving. Also it seems that the more rain in a system the less likely a tornado will form, this event will have a lot more of the wet stuff than the windy stuff I think.

Now to sit back and hope the charts don't change their minds smile
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 20/05/2006 16:47

looking real good for overnight monday ad tuesday with rain periods and thunderstoms our 1st major rain event for the season
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/05/2006 11:37

still looking real good from monday nite through to early thursday some there should be some good falls round the place
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/05/2006 11:58

Nothing to change or add from yesterdays forecast. It still looks the same

I do agree with you Tim re tornadoes and cut off lows though if there is a deep and unstable southerly behind the low then there could be some tornadoes in the cold stream showers. But I am not sure that there is going to be such a southerly in this event.

There is however looking like a good southerly for next sunday/monday though that is still a way off and things can change though I am pretty happy with that scenario

Anyone else like to place a rainfal total on Perth and the rest of WA for the next event on Monday through to Friday??

Cheers
Mike
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/05/2006 12:57

for this event i am going to be dareing and say 100mm for perth see how i go eh
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/05/2006 15:35

Well it does look very good squid and although I dont think Perth itself will get 100mm it should get at least 50mm. Charts are agreeing quite well, which is to be expected this close to the event. One thing I've noticed with most of the models, they aren't going for any rain on the west coast before early Tuesday Morning, coinciding with a more W component in the winds. Which means Perth wont see any rain until daylight on Tuesday at the earliest I feel.

Should we have a comp to see who can guess the total for Perth for the 24hrs to 9am Wednesday (heaviest falls i think) and the total from the whole system. My guesses are 36mm for Wednesday and 62mm for the event. Though I hope I am guessing too low smile

edit: latest OCF update doesnt look very good, only going for 20mm for the event! though it only goes for 4 days so it looks as if some of the models arent working. Hopefully thats the reason for the major downgrade of rain.
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/05/2006 15:55

I am going for 40 mm to 9am on wednesday and 50mm out of the whole event till friday.

I still expect to see totals for the even around some palces to near 120mm
Posted by: davo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/05/2006 18:01

I'll go for 35mm to Wed 9am, 53 all up (more would be nice smile )
Posted by: troughline

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/05/2006 20:43

63mm until 9am Wed - 90mm for the event smile
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/05/2006 21:36

showers rain and storms tomorrow night tuesday and wednesday great forcast then the showers come back on sunday even better
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/05/2006 22:13

Im going for 35mm all up. We seem to end up with less than is predicted....tho as everyone else, I REALLY hope there is heaps more than that:)
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 21/05/2006 22:19

can see the low beginning to develop on the front now on sat pic
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/05/2006 00:54

Just started a new thread in the Breaking weather section pple.
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/05/2006 11:51

Good to see showers next week and 4 degrees at night! eek eek
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/05/2006 11:57

Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 May to 01 June, 09-10 June, and 19-20 June. Lesser events are likely about 23-24 May, 14-17 June and 01 July. Rain events moving in from the north are possible about 04-07 June, 20 June and 01-02 July.

this is according to www.eldersweather.com.au
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/05/2006 11:58

yer going to be cold when this system is done with us brrrrr
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/05/2006 11:59

very overcast and gloomy looking this morning
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/05/2006 12:01

well i am going to stick to here for this event much easier
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/05/2006 13:30

Possible thunderstorm
11C - 24C

Tuesday

Possible thunderstorm
14C - 21C

Wednesday

Showers easing


gee the forecast is changeable confused
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/05/2006 13:33

Quote:
Originally posted by squid:
for this event i am going to be dareing and say 100mm for perth see how i go eh
well according to the charts you might have to be optimistic the rain has gone and now they think showers with a possible thunderstorm
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/05/2006 14:31

As before...I have started a thread for this rain event in the Breaking weather section.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/05/2006 15:03

i might backtrack my 100mm to 50mm now
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/05/2006 15:38

bom has significantly scaled back this morning (monday). I cannot see what they are judging it on unless ecmwf has pulled back. But I thought not. They are talking about most of the rain falling through the goldfields and eucla now which is not supported by the models so I am a bit confused why they have gone this way
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/05/2006 17:10

Eucla maybe when the low starts spinning up, goldfields I highly doubt it!
I would think the majority of the goldfields and wheatbelt will be looking at 1-10mm.

This has alot of potential to bring alot of rain, or be a giant fizzer.

I would have thought some rain would be starting to develope 150km west of perth but radar remains clear shocked
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 22/05/2006 23:41

This has done what I suspected it might - looked impressive coming in but died right on coast. It is not that unusual for this time of year.

There appears to be some lightning strikes registering on the tracker off the capes at the moment.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/05/2006 00:09

I am starting to get a little worried now. Nothing of any nature developing to the west. If its gonna develope it's gonna be virtually out of nowhere right above our heads.

I was thinking around 40mm this morning but now i am thinking 5-10mm at best.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/05/2006 10:31

Wow! what an awesome morning of storms, got woken up around 2am by some distant thunder, checked out the radar and there was a line developing right over the top of me. Awesome light show with 3 seperate strikes hitting transformers with that eiry green flash! Tried unsuccesfully to get some good lightning shots, only managed to get crappy cc's but hey. Scored 7mm from that storm and a further 8mm from the one that just passed over. Very impressive light show again with that one, with some strange coloured lightning, almost looked pink at times!? looks like being a nice unsettled morning and most of the arvo too, until this trough line clears, cool smile I dont care that we wont get anywhere near the expected rain totals, its been worth it to miss out on the rain cause we got some awesome storms instead smile

Just noticed a 45knot gust was recorded at Ocean reef, around 7:42am with that line that passed through.
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/05/2006 11:40

well tim unlike you i scored a total of 0mm in jandakot

wait... just checked again and now 8.8mm wo hoo and to all those people that had sprinklers on this morning laugh

could see dark sky this morning but the lightning was not near me

who knows could pick up something today the winds have gone westerly and possibly will

dam levels are gonna be critical this year what do you guys think?
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/05/2006 12:02

Tim, you did me like a dinner last night and this morning..I got up at 2.15am to see what was going on, only to see all the lightning up your direction (and that was obscured by rain). No rain at all from that one. The 7.30am storm gave me a whole 5mm. I went down to Sorrento to try some photo's but too wet to get out of the car.. More stuff coming in from the west now so maybe I'll do better later on..
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/05/2006 12:03

Dam levels are critical every year. But this year not so much as we are at our highest starting point in around 5 years.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/05/2006 12:20

Quote:
Originally posted by Lert:
Tim, you did me like a dinner last night and this morning..I got up at 2.15am to see what was going on, only to see all the lightning up your direction (and that was obscured by rain). No rain at all from that one. The 7.30am storm gave me a whole 5mm. I went down to Sorrento to try some photo's but too wet to get out of the car.. More stuff coming in from the west now so maybe I'll do better later on..
good to hear! your always stealing my rain so I thought it only fair I stole yours for once. Though this time I think I was a bit too greedy, stole most of Perths overnight rain! laugh smile Though I am sure you will make up for it today, plenty more for us to come. smile
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/05/2006 12:37

SES just reported a possible nader around Rockingham. I do not think these cells are strong enough to produce even a weak nader. More like a Microburst or just strong straight line winds.
If there was a nader there would be visual evidence as the time the cells moved through was around 9:30am
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/05/2006 13:10

Thats better, the last band of rain that came through here left me with 10mm + a bit of thunder smile

Kirk, just heard on ABC that a house at Port Kennedy was almost destroyed by a "mini" tornado and a direct lightning strike !! It seems that all his Christmas's came at once in this case.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/05/2006 13:31

Good to hear Lert, heard a bit of thunder up hear in Joondalup too, what a great day smile

...and now a STW issued:

Quote:
OP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for Locally Destructive Winds
For people in the Lower West District, including the Perth Metropolitan area
Issued at 10:55 am on Tuesday 23 May 2006

People are advised that there is a risk of severe thunderstorms during this
morning and afternoon.
Storms may be accompanied by strong winds that could result in damage to
property.

There has been damage reported in the Rockingham area this morning.
The FESA - State Emergency Service advises that people should be aware of
thunderstorms. As storms approach secure loose items and move vehicles under
cover. If lightning accompanies the storm disconnect non essential electrical
appliances and avoid using the phone. Stay indoors until the storms have
passed. If you are caught outside seek shelter away from trees and metal
structures. Driving conditions will be hazardous. Should flash flooding occur,
avoid affected roads, watercourses and floodways in the vicinity until safe to
proceed.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/05/2006 13:50

Our house almost recorded a direct lightning hit, within about 20 metres I reckon. I am not sure what it hit but it knocked out the power smile

I still don't believe any of these cells are all that severe, there is always alot of hype straight after something happens. I heard one person on the radio refer to a strong straight line wind as a nader. He said 3 have gone through in the last 10 mins. People listening to him would have been frightened, I just thought get this idiot off the radio.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/05/2006 15:03

wow we have had 3 storms today one at 2 10 am that lasted for an hour anothe one at 7 30 am and another one at 10 30 am
real nice lightning show early this morning.
has anyone heard of emrald green lightning? and if so does anyone know what it means? cheers
Posted by: teckert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/05/2006 16:32

Please keep ALL current Breaking weather discussion in the relevant Breaking Weather thread.
Thankyou.
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/05/2006 16:49

Oh dear, It's all over bar the shouting anyway..
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/05/2006 17:03

There isnt a breaking weather thread Teckert and whats wrong with posting in here anyway, as the title suggests it is day to day weather thread so why can't we post day to day weather in here?

Though as Lert says it is pretty much all over for Perth, the back of the trough line has all but cleared the metro area now, seemed to hover over my neck of the woods for a decent time though smile Will be interesting to see how much my home gauge has got, probably be another 5 maybe 10mm since I left at 8am this morning.

In regard to the emerald green lightning squid, was that like a flash of green from the base of the strike? if so it would be the explosion of a electricity transformer on an overhead line after being struck by lightning.
Posted by: Twisters

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/05/2006 17:07

What are ya totals like smile

To ya north looks great big area of Rain shame it not moveing south towards u seen the radar few times today nice soild storms about made a nice change i am sure enjoy hope u get more though does look like it is it hope u had some good falls 15mm south of the city is ok better than nothing
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/05/2006 17:14

My total for the event will probably be around 20-25mm which is rather good when consider the poor falls elsewhere, so I am happy, though this event had so much more potential. Still looks as though they may still be some more showers overnight so hopefully there is more to come.

and yeah that trough has really beefed up now, nice solid block of rain to our NW now, pity that didnt happen before it went through Perth!
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/05/2006 18:40

Finally managed to find a news report on that Rockingham nader:

Quote:
'Tornado' rips through southern Perth
The State Emergency Service (SES) says it appears a tornado has ripped through Perth's southern suburbs, leaving behind a path of destruction.
The SES in Rockingham has received 14 calls for help after this morning's storm.
A Port Kennedy house sustained the worst damage, with part of its roof caving in and strong winds ripping the air-conditioner from the house and onto the road.
The home owners had only just finished a two-year renovation project.
Further north, 2,000 homes around Shenton Park remain without power.
Sounds like a decent strength one too, to rip out an airconditioner and chuck it out onto the road would require a decent strength nader.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/05/2006 19:17

ahh u call tornadoes naders? the green lightning was in the clouds but i think it must have hit some powerlines cause it was a multi strike then the green lasted for about 5 seconds after that i will be posting here for perth wether thanks and nowhere else smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/05/2006 22:38

I have managed 28mm from this event so far, looks I am the rainburgular now, sorry Lert. laugh smile
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 23/05/2006 23:30

I only got 12mm and no wind. frown
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/05/2006 10:17

Ended up with 17mm here which is more than I thought I'd get..
Posted by: teckert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/05/2006 10:44

Quote:
Originally posted by Tim S:
There isnt a breaking weather thread Teckert and whats wrong with posting in here anyway, as the title suggests it is day to day weather thread so why can't we post day to day weather in here?
Yer sorry. There was a Briefing Room thread started which I thought was in the BW forum. shocked
Naturally it would be best and easier for people to follow the system if there was a corresponding BW thread but if you guys prefer having all discussion in the one general thread so be it. :cheers:
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/05/2006 11:28

I think that no-one here minds one general thread.

I know I certainly don't because I have this thread bookmarked and it is much easier to get to.

To the weather.

What a fizzer!!! for the SW anyway. No where near 120mm anywhere. The most would be around 37 mm in shannon after having a quick look at the obs.

Well the models went backwards and forwards on that system and at the end of it the BOM's pull back was well considered. Though by the look of it the cloud band has not had much moisture inflow from the nw at all. I think that Kirk was right on the ball on the 17th of May when he said that we shouldn't get too excited about it!!

Next weeks system is looking interesting with a low somewhere around the sw of WA but after the last one I might give it a few more runs before I start trying to pin it down smile
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/05/2006 11:28

I managed only 15mm smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/05/2006 11:48

Yeah too true Mike! was definitely a dissapointment considering the potential for some very heavy falls, at least a few days out anyway. I remember thinking on the Monday while looking at the sat pic that it didnt look very promising, was nowhere near enough tropical inflow for a major rain event. Then after watching the rain radar all of Monday night and seeing next to no development I was really starting to worry. As it turns out even though the rainfall was fairly poor we did get a very good period of unsettled weather with some nice lightning and thunder and we all know that doesnt happen very often here in perth! smile

Regarding that Rockingham nader, on the news last night they said it packed winds of 170km/hr so it would have been a fairly strong F1 tornado.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/05/2006 11:53

Tim,

Not sure if you would agree with me on this or not but I think in the last couple of years if there is damage it is automatically a 'mini tornado'. Instead of saying it was just strong winds they use mini tornado. I personally think yesterday was just a case of a very strong microburst
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/05/2006 12:02

Yeah your right Kirk, I don't agree with you. :p I can't really say for certain though judging by the description of the damage it does sound like one. They said there was a 2km long trail of damage in a small strip and by the pics of the house that lost its air con, the houses next door were hardly damaged at all. Also if it were a microburst of that strength there would have been a lot more damage over a lot wider area, to get 170km/hr winds from a microburst would mean it would have to be quite severe.
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/05/2006 13:28

the sky is blue and the sun is out but it is freezing brrr....
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/05/2006 18:02

there is nothing mini about a tornado i hate the term mini tornado.
some very cold nights coming up 4 tonight and 5 tomorrow night brrrrrr
showers after the weekend
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/05/2006 20:03

Well I only ended up with 6.8mm! You guys up north of me all stole the rain....AGAIN!! haa haa wink

Last night on channel 9, they spoke to Neil Bennett I think, (Could be very wrong?) and they asked if these "Mini tornadoes" are becoming more frequent over the last few years? He responded with, no I dont think they are, its just that people are living now in the areas that they occur or something along those lines. Dixi responded with "Makes sense"

I was very happy, smile just cause they get reported now, everyone thinks that they happen so much more.
Posted by: Chaser80

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/05/2006 23:03

5.7 degs at Jandakot already, and its only 9pm!
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/05/2006 23:33

Did anyone see the report on "Today, Tonight" (Ch7 6.30pm) about tornados in Perth? I thought it was rather well done. Several eyewitness reports from yesterday's event describing the circulating debri around the twister and the classic "It sounded like a freight train coming through". It also repeated the line from above that it's not more tornados happening, it's just that there are more people about. The BoM's advice? "If you hear a freight train when you don't live near a railway, move to a safe part of your house." wink
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 24/05/2006 23:38

Quote:
Originally posted by teckert:
Please keep ALL current Breaking weather discussion in the relevant Breaking Weather thread.
Thankyou.
Well, the changes in Breaking weather forum, splitting it into two, kind of killed it for us over here. There are only a handful of people who can make any sort of serious weather prediction, so that means not much happens in the first forum, and then since most weather events are rather fleeting here, by the time someone starts a thread the event is over! So all us Perthites have set up camp in this thread. I don't think shouting at us is going to get us to move where we supposedly should be.
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/05/2006 00:28

sure is cold according to this website it is 5.1 at 10.27pm wst and it feels like 4.2 it reckons
------------------
thursday

Sunny
3C eek - 17C

Friday

Sunny
3C eek - 18C

Saturday

Sunny
4C eek - 20C

Sunday

Cloud increasing
6C - 22C
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/05/2006 07:39

Is it just me or are the models really all over the place at the moment. I am finding it hard to get good ideas on exactly what events in the future are going to do based upon model data. It must be the Autumn blues or something...

With there being a moisture source to the nw it might make it more complicated as small changes in the mid level flow and stregth mean big differences in the amount of rain and the size of the systems.

Are my thoughts correct here or am I just feeling a bit twitchy of late after the last system went weaker than expected
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/05/2006 11:28

2.9C at the metro site this morning which is the 3rd coldest May min on record. Very chilly all over the SW with quite widespread frosts by the looks of things, coldest I can see was Collie East with a rounded off -3C!

Its not just you Mike, they are all over the place lately, yeah must have something to do with the time of year I think, they always say Spring and Autumn are the hardest season to predict because they are so changeable
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/05/2006 11:52

by sunday though it will be much warmer at night apparently
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/05/2006 12:02

brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr last night sure was a cold one and tonight is going to be the same
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/05/2006 12:07

must be the double brick construction and insulation of homes in perth it was 5 degrees frown outside i walked inside everything being closed up it was 18 degrees. smile
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/05/2006 15:39

Quote:
Originally posted by teckert:
Please keep ALL current Breaking weather discussion in the relevant Breaking Weather thread.
Thankyou.
What is the reasoning behind keeping all "breaking weather" discussion in that thread. wouldn't it be better just to leave it up to the person posting the message...this is a general weather forum so we're talking about the weather generally whether it be in the past, present or future
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/05/2006 15:42

0.4 in jandakot! definitely cold around perth this morning. rode to uni in t-shirt and shorts, pretty stupid! looks like some showers on the horizon but looking like we may be in for one of the driest may's on record. bunbury has had under 10mm this month so a few records across the south-west could be broken.
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/05/2006 16:04

i agree that may will be the driest

according to the bom latest outlooks only perth will have a 50-55 percent chance of rainfall with no strong odds to below or above average rainfall

everywhere else
warm temps
below average rainfall
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/05/2006 16:05

Quote:
Originally posted by hailstorm:
0.4 in jandakot! definitely cold around perth this morning. rode to uni in t-shirt and shorts, pretty stupid! looks like some showers on the horizon but looking like we may be in for one of the driest may's on record. bunbury has had under 10mm this month so a few records across the south-west could be broken.
thought it was chilly this morning! laugh
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 25/05/2006 23:45

brrrrrrrrr 4.8 degrees at perth airport and it is only 9 45 pm i see that thunderstorms are forcast for monday laugh
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/05/2006 11:50

yes another cold night

Sunday Cloudy. Showers later. Min 9 Max 22
Monday Showers. Possible thunderstorm. Min 12 Max 18
Tuesday Showers. Min 9 Max 18


hopefully june will be average otherwise there could be issues with water etc
Posted by: ben01

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/05/2006 16:42

Hey guys...

Is monday & tues going to be cloud and rain non stop or will there be breaks with sun and stuff?...

Thinkin of goin to rotto, dont mind a bit of rain but if its going to be "rained out" then i wont bother!!

Thanks...
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/05/2006 17:52

I wouldn't be too worried at this stage, none of the models suggest anything too rough. The Bom are going for a pretty strong system though
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 26/05/2006 18:51

brrrrrrrrrrr cold night again tonight still going for storms on monday laugh
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/05/2006 12:09

Well it doesn't look like a cut off low will form anymore. The cold front itself doesn't look all that strong either.
I would be changing the forecast on Monday to only a shower or two as I can't see the area of rain and cloud off the NW coast extending down past the Shark Bay area.

It should be quiet a nice sunny day tomorrow if this cloud sitting to the NW isnt dragged down
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/05/2006 14:55

It's interesting to note that on the provincial cities forecast on the bom site, Geraldton and Bunbury both have a late storm forecast for Sunday yet Perth doesn't. confused
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 27/05/2006 21:07

ok predictions for rain fall for this event i am picking 20mm
Posted by: Turbo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/05/2006 01:04

Quote:
ok predictions for rain fall for this event i am picking 20mm
G'day Squid.
What do you base that on? Some models (OCF) are only going for 5 mm.
It also looks like the rainfall will die of pretty quickly on Monday.
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/05/2006 16:14

Looks like the very thin line of showers & an embeded storm of two that is sitting to the SW of Perth is a classic NE/NW convergance line.

Looking south from my house the structure isn't too bad. Just a shame the portion west of Perth hasn't developed all that much
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/05/2006 17:22

very thin lne out to sea i hope it pickes up a bit before coming ashore
gfs develops a low off the coast in a few days time from that cloud mass that has been hanging around the NW cape area do you think that we will get much from that system if it develops???
my 20mm is not based on anything just a wild guess this time but i dont think that will happen now maby 10mm
Posted by: Kirk

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/05/2006 20:17

I was on my balcony looking west not long ago and noticed what looked to be some towers going up, 20 mins later radar confirms some very thin but strong looking showers. Maybe with abit of luck they will thicken up a little and become electrically based :p
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/05/2006 23:29

heavy rain here atm can see a line of heavy showers on radar now anyone getting any storms?
Posted by: troughline

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/05/2006 23:43

nothing here in duncraig or along the coast it seems
Posted by: troughline

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/05/2006 23:47

be interesting to see the airports' figures in about an hour or so
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/05/2006 23:50

rain has stopped for now seems that thin line has gone through now
Posted by: troughline

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 28/05/2006 23:51

yeah.... appeared from nowhere on the radar
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/05/2006 00:04

I looked at the radar about an hour ago and thought I was going to miss out - but since then then line has grown and it now looks like I'm about to receive a heavy shower! (it's drizzling at the moment).
Posted by: silvercloud

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/05/2006 00:36

We got a good storm down here at about 6.30pm
Posted by: JuNgLeJiM

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/05/2006 00:52

That line came through here just after 10pm and sat over me for a good 10 min or so...picked up 9.6mm from it laugh . Probly the heaviest rain I've had this year.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/05/2006 09:14

nice pick up there junglejim i think you may have scored the best one most sites are reporting only 2 or 3 mm so far
radar looks dead just drizzle here hopefully we pick up a few more mm throughout the day.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/05/2006 10:37

Thought you might have scored well from that line JJ, seemed to really fire up when it got to your neck of the woods. I only managed 2-3mm from that line and a total of 6.5mm for the night. Currently raining here, probably light to moderate showers, definitely not drizzle, yet nothing on the radar in the last 4 frames! the perth radar is shocking in situations like this.
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/05/2006 11:20

Agree the radar does not do the light stuff very well and IMO pretty pessemistic on the heavy rain as well. Got 6mm here up to 9am of mainly drizzle..
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/05/2006 12:16

Maybe it purposely returns less rain up here, so that the poor suckers that don't live in rain thief territory feel better about the few drops they receive? smile
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/05/2006 14:45

Rorecast issued by BOM for Perth
"Forecast for Tuesday
A few showers though with lengthy fire periods. SW winds."
laugh
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/05/2006 14:57

I would be worried if that were the forecast in Summer! So is a Rorecast, like a forecast but one that makes you rore with laughter? :p

The cold pool behind this mornings front looks fairly decent, both on the radar and sat pics, should see a showery period start again here shortly and last the rest of the arvo, hopefully smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/05/2006 15:02

There could possibly be some snow flurries on the Stirlings, specially with the passage of the cold pool down there, current temps at Albany is under 10C and several other places around there are around the same or cooler.
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/05/2006 16:02

I remember reading on a website by this snowchaser that if the maximum is under 12 at Albany there is chance for snow on the bluff. BOM should get an AWS on the bluff!
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/05/2006 18:01

the showers are back with a gusty Sw change
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/05/2006 18:28

I always look at Kattaning, Manjimup and Albany and if they are all in single figures with rain there is a reasonable chance of at least sleet at the hight of Bluff Knoll. Kattaning is currently 6.1c with rain and thats at 320m asl so at 1000m asl it should be around 1-2C so there is a good chance there would be snow/sleet falling there at the moment, though I imagine it wont hang around too long if it does indeed fall.

Having a look at rainfall for Autumn, the lowest on record is 42.4mm in 1983 and currently we are on 60mm exactly (as of 4pm) so that would put us in second place for the lowest rainfall for Autumn! very dry indeed. We should get that record as we need abother 3.8mm to fall into 3rd place.
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/05/2006 19:18

hey guys look at this canning dam is 0 percent

http://www.watercorporation.com.au/dams/dams_storage.cfm?rootparent=ourwatersources

yeah not great rainfall today, trying not to be a pessimist but well looking at the synoptic maps on this website for the upcoming few days and week it is not a good pattern to see!
Posted by: J_23

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 29/05/2006 21:38

I like the forecast of fine weather for the next week, although not good for the rainfall I would much prefer the sunny weather.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/05/2006 09:46

only 1-2mm from those showers around the place oh well back to the fine weather again by the looks I think i will go back to sleep now
Posted by: hailstorm

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/05/2006 11:43

Looks like at least another week until next decent rainfall frown
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/05/2006 12:26

more like another month like this mad
Posted by: sandgroper

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/05/2006 17:10

A dud May rainfall wise doesn't always write off the winter - IIRC in 1996 we had next to nothing in May, and the first week and a half of June, but then things went ballistic. We ended up with nearly 900mm for the year.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/05/2006 17:50

Yeah still plenty of hope for a nice wet winter, specially considering it hasnt started yet! smile and yes May 96 was a reasonably dry one, 50.6mm fell and then in June 96 221.4mm fell! and if I remember right that was when Mundaring weir overflowed.

Though there doesnt seem to be an overwhelming correlation between a dry May and wet June it does seem to happen that way more often than not. The thing is though in June we average 180mm so thats about 6mm a day which means we need some of these big fat slow highs to bugger off for a while! smile
Posted by: Lert

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 30/05/2006 18:41

Had another 4mm yesterday arvo/night from the odd passing "coldie" which brought me up to 10mm for this event..
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/05/2006 02:26

This website predicts only 4 days of rain this june!? confused confused eek

http://www.eldersweather.com.au/raindates.jsp?lc=w00

and

http://www.eldersweather.com.au/raindeciles.jsp?lc=w00

what do you guys think?
Posted by: davo

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/05/2006 10:45

Well, Vinny, it was just a few days ago that that site predicted something like 7 days out of the next 10 were 'high' probability, so that tells me it can change very quickly, so I guess that means it can quickly change back too? Still, I have to have my 2 cents worth of gripe about May at my place:

Total from system just gone = 2.2mm
Total for May = 24.6mm (normally 120, last year 190!)

I sure hope the Elders prediction is very wrong, but it's sure not looking promising for the first week of the wettest month of the year...
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/05/2006 11:36

and they said perthsrainfall would decline due to global warming etc......


Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 28 May to 01 June, 09-10 June, and 19-20 June (www.ELDERSWEATHER.COM.AU)

oh dear!.....
Posted by: radar

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/05/2006 13:01

One thing's for sure, there is a lot of moisture off to the NW being wasted at the moment as we can't get a decent cold front to drag it down and activate it. There is probably more moisture off to the NW than there was last year but not a single front strong enough to make use of it. Nothing on the radar for at least the next week either, according to the models.
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/05/2006 13:33

I tell yah, if this was summer and we had a sat pic like we do today I would be very excited! smile though unfortunatly its not but still, it is fairly impressive nether the less! I just hope that the moisture hangs around till our next front comes along, which looks like being in about a weeks time. Either that or someone start designing a cold front generator! laugh smile
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/05/2006 17:03

huge cloud mass off NW WA is there anythign hiding in that?? very thick high cloud been overhead all day
Posted by: Blue Skies

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 31/05/2006 23:52

Apparently it has been the second driest Autumn on record. You wouldn't really know it, though, there is plenty of moisture around and the weeds are well on their way already.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/06/2006 12:10

forcast is fine untill next wednesday at least frown
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/06/2006 14:11

well fine weather and no rain

drying climate here we go
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/06/2006 17:22

gfs has a low rapidly developing and tracking down
the west coast in 6 days time hmmm
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/06/2006 17:23

gfs has a low rapidly developing and tracking down
the west coast in 6 days time hmmm
Posted by: Phuzekhemisi

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 01/06/2006 20:47

I for one am very worried about a sustained drought. I am sure this June will be the driest on record. The cold fronts are just too far south (AND not strong enough). We'll get rain this month.. but it will be pathetic patchy showers, soon replaced by fine weather again. Probably late August and early September will be our rainiest period, probably still a little below average. Worse than 2001. If you look at the charts on BOM for indian ocean, there's no cold front within cooee of our latitude - so no rain, unless things change. But with the forseeable future forecast as fine, I see no hope.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/06/2006 10:04

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/twcGrads.jsp?model=gfs&chart=mslp&hour=-1

gfs has a deep low off the SW capes on wednesday hmm interesting
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/06/2006 11:34

Quote:
Originally posted by Phuzekhemisi:
I for one am very worried about a sustained drought. I am sure this June will be the driest on record. The cold fronts are just too far south (AND not strong enough). We'll get rain this month.. but it will be pathetic patchy showers, soon replaced by fine weather again. Probably late August and early September will be our rainiest period, probably still a little below average. Worse than 2001. If you look at the charts on BOM for indian ocean, there's no cold front within cooee of our latitude - so no rain, unless things change. But with the forseeable future forecast as fine, I see no hope.
well http://www.eldersweather.com.au/raindates.jsp?lc=w00 is saying there will be four days of rain this month

10 june and 11 june smile
17 and 18 june smile

not good at all. I think dam levels will drop to 17 percent. I really really wish

that we could have a year like last year and then another good year not (one dry and one wet)
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/06/2006 11:34

for some reason when i post a message it is doing it twice?
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/06/2006 13:16

i done that a few times too vinny dont know how lol.
forcast is fine till at least next thursday frown
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 02/06/2006 14:00

well wednesday they say showers confused smile
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/06/2006 17:48

on thurdsay gfs has a fairly good sized low crossing perth confused smile
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/twcGrads.jsp?model=gfs&chart=mslp&hour=-1
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/06/2006 21:37

I know this is 16 days out but take a look at this gfs model and particularly the last scan...

http://radar.strikeone.net.au/index.php?fuseaction=loops.cola&modelID=4&modelType=18

Gee if this happened it would be an interesting weather event. It is about as likely to happen as it is to be sunny and light winds that far out but my experience says that something may occur around that time but it does tend to exagerate a bit smile
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 03/06/2006 23:05

16 days out Chop! now you are really starting to clutch at straws! :p I have no faith in the models at the moment, so much so that I am only looking at them every few days and thinking, hrmm that looks good, now whats happening on Big Brother. smile yes very sad I know but it just seems that the models have been so far off the mark with the last few cut off lows that they are almost laughable.

Though with the anti-cyclonic pessimism put aside there does seem to be some aggreeance with respect to a low developing some where of the west coast either midweek or about a week later depending on which chart you believe.

Regardless of the lack of good winter rain around Perth and the SW I am really enjoying the sunny warmth of our indian summer smile makes the cold mornings easier to bear smile
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/06/2006 09:33

you were so right and i hinted as much because the next run has it fine and sunny over perth so thats the models for you.

I agree with you re the models being all over the place lately and i wonder if it has to do with the very balanced scenario with a large moisture source off the nw coast and the possibility of the long wave troughs aplifying to drag it down has the models wandering if quite different directions. What are others thoughts on this?

I definatley are with you though on "wow wouldn't it be interesting if this by any chance happened" model gazing. I think that no model is spared at this stage with even ECM all over the place.


Cheers
Chop
Posted by: Squid

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/06/2006 10:46

lol the models have changed lol where did the low go laugh laugh laugh
Posted by: Vinnie

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/06/2006 12:36

i can't see any wet weather happening until the end of this month!
Posted by: Tim S

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/06/2006 13:52

Yeah Chop, the models must be having a barmy at the moment becuase they dont agree on anything! laugh

Usually GFS and GASP vary slightly in there predicitions, but lately they have been so far apart it is like they are prediciting for a different year or something! The others like COLA and ECM arent that good either, choping and changing their predicitons from each and almost every run.

I would agree that it would have something to do with the unusaul length and persitance of the High pressure belt that that has been passing over us for god knows how long now. I have been looking at previous years that were similar to this year, 2003 comes to mind, where we had a very dry start to May and June and there was periods of maybe 2 weeks at the most where we would get these 'anti-cyclonic trains' passing after one another but nothing like what we have had so far.

I think it is related to sea surface temps somehow and the related atmospheric mositure. The LWT seems to be a very complicated beast and I would love to understand how it works and what influences its movement around the Southern Ocean, maybe those penguins down in Antartica have been up to something and are stuffing it up from the source! laugh smile

I have a feeling Tuesday nights 'front' will be a little better than expected though, OCF seems to be very cautious in its rain estimates of 1-2mm, I am thinking more like 5-10mm with isolated heavier falls aroud the SW.

On a completely different note, Nobody knows what has happened to NPMOC (http://www.yoko.npmoc.navy.mil/) lately? there site has been having troubles for about a week or two?
Posted by: mikef

Re: Perth and WA day to day weather - 04/06/2006 14:43

Its working again.

I am archiving the sat photos on my site at

http://radar.strikeone.net.au/index.php?...=0&dateFinish=0

also you can select only a small cutout of it by selecting an area on the infared animations on my site as well at...

http://radar.strikeone.net.au/index.php?...=0&dateFinish=0

I find this useful if I only want to look at a storm and not download the