2019 Australian Snow Season

Posted by: Eigerwand

2019 Australian Snow Season - 25/03/2019 16:11

Light dusting possible this weekend for the Snowies on the back of a couple of light falls in Tasmania over the past couple of weeks. Time to open a new thread. As always fingers crossed for a good one this year in the usual places and fingers and toes crossed for some good low level snowfalls through the CT’s and NT’s. Can’t forget about that little corner over in SW WA either.
Posted by: crikey

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 28/03/2019 19:40

The first big cold pool to traverse Victoria, NSW alps and Tasmania. 30th March and first April.
536 thickness near the SA ranges and in particular the Ballarat and grampian ranges. The cold pool tracks east over the Vic and NSW alps.
The main moisture band is in front of the cold pool unfortunately but looking at Acc r there is enough to make snowfall probable depending on the height above sea level.
There is a decent precipitation signal from surface trough coinciding with the cold pool over the NSW alps on the 1st April.
A nice system really. Surprised the forum isn't all over this exciting cold pool. The Vic's won't know what hit em'
The forecasts will be interesting

thickness
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
Posted by: Kino

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 28/03/2019 20:24

I guess we’re all a little jaded after spectacular recent fails.
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 28/03/2019 22:56

MSLP chart for Saturday has improved on this morning’s version, shows a more definite SW’ly airflow in the wake of the front compared with the earlier run. Could be a pretty good little taste of winter for the high country.
Posted by: Rsav

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 29/03/2019 20:33

I should be in Thredbo by this time tomorrow for a short stay, so hopefully I'll see some of the white stuff!🤞
Posted by: crikey

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 30/03/2019 19:38

Some snow fell at Mt baw baw in southern VIC.
20mm of precipitation around 0 to minus one.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV60801/IDV60801.95901.shtml
Nice
covering. I believe you could ski on that
check out cam
https://mountbawbaw.com.au/live-cameras
Posted by: Rsav

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 30/03/2019 19:45

Arrived at Thredbo about 7pm. Decent cover on top of the range, just a smattering in the village.
Posted by: crikey

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 30/03/2019 19:53

Thanks for the update Rsav.I am envious. Lovely
Baw baw did really well.
Posted by: Rsav

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 30/03/2019 20:41

Snowing at Thredbo now.
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 31/03/2019 08:58

Well this appears to have been a pretty good little to whet the appetite for the season ahead. Saw some footage on Snowsearch from Perisher this morning, enough snow to make everything white 🤩
Posted by: Rsav

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 31/03/2019 18:35

Today I took the chairlift from Thredbo up to Eagles Nest and walked as far as Mt Kosciuszko Lookout. A winter wonderland up on top, quite a sight for so early in the year.
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 17/04/2019 22:14

MSLP chart looking pretty solid for Friday in SW WA and the most recent satellite shows an enormous area of cold air sitting behind the front. One to watch.
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 19/04/2019 11:11

Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
MSLP chart looking pretty solid for Friday in SW WA and the most recent satellite shows an enormous area of cold air sitting behind the front. One to watch.


Yes...given the media anticipation and the holiday break I expect the car park at Bluff Knoll will be full about anytime after late tonight...

Upper level trough marked on charts at present coming through later on when airmass is still pretty cold

If it comes off, local BOM is saying it'd be the first April snow here in nearly 50 years
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 19/04/2019 15:17

Currently 7.1C at Albany Ap, blowing a SW’ly and rain accumulating in the guage. That I imagine would be just about as good as it gets for snow chances in WA. You’d think there’d be something floating around in the air up the top of Bluff Knoll at 1099m..
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 19/04/2019 16:17

If nothing else, Albany looks to be with a chance of setting a new low max record for April 🙂
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 19/04/2019 23:06

One I'm watching with the numbers to come in in the morning is that there has never been a sub-10 maximum in WA in April. Rocky Gully is the only AWS still in the hunt, but there are also manual sites (e.g. Mount Barker) which are possibilities.
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 19/04/2019 23:38

Well, if Mount Barker avoided a little blip, like what pushed Albany Ap briefly into the double digits today, it seems quite possible it might stay in the single digits for the 24hr period. Great to see that Albany and Mount Barker have records going back to the 1870’s and 1880’s respectively. Fine scalps to claim.
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 20/04/2019 13:02

Very light patchy dusting of snow early this morning(saturday) from the late Friday period. As is often the case, a dearth of moisture in behind these fronts seems to be the rule. Nevertheless a fun occasion for those present.
Posted by: Knot

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 20/04/2019 13:20

Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
One I'm watching with the numbers to come in in the morning is that there has never been a sub-10 maximum in WA in April.


Well there is now. Break out the champagne
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 20/04/2019 23:52

Yes, 9.2 at Rocky Gully. (Mount Barker, not the most reliable of reporting stations, seems to have taken Easter off).
Posted by: Knot

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 21/04/2019 06:46

Crazy continent. An unprecedented low Max for April in WA and eastwards SA late April heat records taken out and still further east above average temps blandsville.
Posted by: Snowy Hibbo

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 04/05/2019 23:20

Here's my 2019 Australian Winter Outlook.

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2019/05/australia-winter-2019-seasonal-outlook.html

My final Spencer's Creek snow depth prediction is 176cm. A relatively average (and a little early) season is on the forecast.

Methodology and model outlooks are in the link to my forecast above.
Thank you all.
Posted by: Snowy Hibbo

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 04/05/2019 23:21

In other news, 10-25cm is on the cards for 8-10 May according to ECMWF for much of the Alps. Could see some snowfalls down to 600-800m, in rather weird places, up towards the CTs.
Posted by: crikey

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 24/05/2019 19:14

https://twitter.com/SNOWSEARCH_aus
Posted by: AnnerleyX1

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 28/05/2019 22:38

Looking like a pretty good start in the next 10 days at least!
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 08/06/2019 09:35

Snow depth at Spencers at 71cm. Pretty good for this time of year and by the looks of the graph about a month earlier than last. Remarkable how similar the amount of snow fell to kick both seasons off between this year and last, though Three Mile Dam didn’t fair quite as well as last year.

My guess is there will be nothing of note from now until about early July. I think the renewed action when it comes will be pretty good but I suspect a warm spring will make this season’s final chart look rather spiky.
Posted by: crikey

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 22/06/2019 18:23

Disappointed only a few lifts open at the ski resorts.
Might wait to get value for lift pass.
Currently in VIC with some nice frosts in the morning in west VIC
The AAO is forecast to dip downward this week but only as far down as neutral.
The AAO has been trending positive since June 1st.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
Hoping this short but strong dip in the AAO will bring some more excitement for the ski fields
ACC g is suggesting a 532 thickness cold pool to emerge from the Bight later this week, 28th june.
I will be watching eagerly. Might catch a good snow dump on the way home, via ski fields
cheers
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 28/06/2019 13:41

...just returned home from a trip to Bluff Knoll... a fortuitous upper trough formed in the wake of yesterdays front and a light dusting settled from about (guess) 900 meters between roughly 6-7 am this morning. About 2 cms overall.
Posted by: samboz

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 28/06/2019 18:40

Bluff Knoll @ ??

Guessing Vic, Bluff Hut, Alpine Nat, Park, although Bluff Knoll in W.A. is high enough.
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 28/06/2019 19:30

...wa
...wouldn't have remained long after 9-10am as temps were only just cold enough early morning

Posted by: samboz

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 28/06/2019 21:52

Yeti tracks in the foreground snowbooby. lol

Been a fire up there too.

Excellent pic too, thanks. Not very many like this one taken in W.A. I'm guessing.
Posted by: AnnerleyX1

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 28/06/2019 23:56

Almost more natural snow there then there is on the East Coast poke
Posted by: Eigerwand

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 29/06/2019 07:02

A pretty good fall for Bluff Knoll?
Posted by: snowbooby

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 29/06/2019 15:04

Thanks everyone for your interest.

snowfall on BK seemed to take an uptick about 2015 - before 2015 there seemed proportionately less events with snow settling - that's just based on my personal experience extending back to 2009.

I might have missed one or two but the tally I make from 2015 to the present time, is 18 -all settling falls -probably 60% wd've been light dustings(up to 1 cm and/or patchy), I'd say the rest are up to 2cm with a couple a bit more than that. All but one of 5 falls since 2018, have been in the 2cm to 2cm+ range.
Posted by: Homer

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 29/06/2019 17:07

Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Thanks everyone for your interest.

snowfall on BK seemed to take an uptick about 2015 - before 2015 there seemed proportionately less events with snow settling - that's just based on my personal experience extending back to 2009.

I might have missed one or two but the tally I make from 2015 to the present time, is 18 -all settling falls -probably 60% wd've been light dustings(up to 1 cm and/or patchy), I'd say the rest are up to 2cm with a couple a bit more than that. All but one of 5 falls since 2018, have been in the 2cm to 2cm+ range.


Plenty of interest in Bluff Knoll, that's for sure.
Keep the updates coming!
Posted by: Snowy Hibbo

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 03/07/2019 00:22

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2019/07/2nd-july-australia-on-long-term.html
My latest snow outlook for the long term is above.

The 9-15 July period looks good for some decent snowfall for at least the Alps.
Posted by: AnnerleyX1

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 04/07/2019 11:53

How does Weatherzone do their snow and ski forecasts? Most models I've looked at seem to agree that some sort of decent snow system will happen in that 11-15 July window, but the Weatherzone forecast has nothing after isolated showers early that week.

EC seems to be calling for a monster blizzard on Saturday the 10th.
Posted by: petethemoskeet

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 04/07/2019 12:25

The 10th is a Wednesday
Posted by: AnnerleyX1

Re: 2019 Australian Snow Season - 04/07/2019 16:36

Oh bugger I meant the 13th. They seem to be on board now anyway. Could be a half decent little storm if things pan out.