Weather Channel forecast Vicco Thurs 19th Feb

Posted by: thermalben

Weather Channel forecast Vicco Thurs 19th Feb - 16/02/2004 22:48

Hey Alex

Just had a look at your forecast for Vicco this Thursday and got quite a shock: 8-10'!! I had a quick check of my sources, but I can't figure out where you've got such a significantly large forecast size from!

This is without a doubt the largest swell size I have seen you call for any state (you mentioned before that you normally try to 'fit the line' between the Surf Coast and East Coast - the couple of genuine 8'+ swells we saw in January were forecast in the 5-6' or 6-8' range if I recall correctly), but I am most interested why Thursday stands out so much in the wave height department. Every swell model has Thursday on the end of a fading WSW swell, with another slow builder expected in late in the day (possible 6' sets at Rye in the arvo, but I can't see a huge amount more than that). There's definitely an outside possibility for Saturday or Sunday to deliver something along these lines if the developing low in the western Bight really takes off, but that's pretty speculative at this stage (and it's for the weekend, anyway).

Is there something here I'm not seeing?

Cheers, Ben
Posted by: thermalben

Re: Weather Channel forecast Vicco Thurs 19th Feb - 17/02/2004 14:24

It's now been downgraded to 6-8' (still a little optimistic in my books).. maybe you're not doing the surf forecasting at the moment? I'm still a little baffled.. I haven't seen you put three 6-8' days in a row before smile

Besides the current impressive peak in wave heights (6-8'+ on the East Coast, but only 3-4' at Bells due to the westerly component of the swell), it's looking like dropping steadily over Wed and Thurs.
Posted by: Alex Zadnik

Re: Weather Channel forecast Vicco Thurs 19th Feb - 18/02/2004 18:35

G'day Ben,
Sorry I haven't replied sooner, I've been surfing the first swell of the season in Sydney! By the way, I had epic waves when I was down in Sorrento two weeks ago. Two 5ft plus days. Surfed a double up beachie one day and out at Vicco's best left hander(I think you'll know it - it's affected by the tide a fair bit) another day when the wind was SE.
Now, for my overly optimistic surf forecast. I went for the 8-10ft forecast initially as an earlier run of EC had the present low moving south of TAS producing a strong band of S/SW winds (WW3 significant wave heights also looked good). I downgraded to 6-8ft when EC looked less favourable. I've stuck with the 6-8ft as I expect a fairly sizeable swell to push up from the low south of TAS onto the Peninsula beaches during tomorrow(despite the W/SW oreintation of the winds behind the front). Could be optimistic, but WW3 on FNMOC is still going for an increase.
Posted by: thermalben

Re: Weather Channel forecast Vicco Thurs 19th Feb - 18/02/2004 20:57

hey Alex

Glad to hear you're getting some waves! It's been a lean summer down your way.

I reckon we could see a few 6'+ sets later tomorrow from that low pushing into Tassie - but to me it looks like a slow builder (as the swell direction isn't 100% optimal), and therefore I'm anticipating the peak from this event sometime on Friday with NW winds - could be a jatz cracker at Bells. And there's also some good agreement across the models for the low in the Bight to significantly deepen Thurs/Fri, with a possible v.large surge on Sat.. I'm hinging a 50% chance on 8' to possibly even 10' maximum wave height (if only for a few hours) later Saturday along the East Coast at this stage. Current NOAA swell model runs aren't using the latest GFS winds, and as such I think they'll perk up significantly by tomorrow morning once they update.

Anyway, enough rambling from me - it's all in my latest forecast anyway smile

Hope the swell maintains itself for you in Syd.. this morning was good in Qld (seen my pics?). Finally! It's been a hard summer.. as far as I'm concerned, Qld is proving to be a bit of a hoax!

Cheers, Ben