Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011

Posted by: Inclement Weather

Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 17:14

Well, it's that time of year when the seasonal outlook get's released and this season should be a lulu with up to six cyclones predicted for the Coral Sea:

Seasonal Outlook 2010-11 for Queensland and the Coral Sea Region
Summary: La Nina boosts the odds of Queensland having an active cyclone season.

Queensland may experience above average tropical cyclone activity this coming season, with up to six cyclones developing in the Coral Sea. It is also likely to be wetter than normal in most parts.

The Bureau of Meteorology's Queensland Regional Director, Jim Davidson, said this is because we're now in a La Nina climate phase, which he expects will remain the dominating influence through the Spring and Summer months.

La Nina events are usually associated with above normal rainfall across much of Queensland and enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the Coral Sea.

Mr Davidson said "What this translates to is where historically we could expect an average of four cyclones a season in the Coral Sea, we now expect the number to be potentially higher, but the number of cyclones actually making landfall can be quite variable from season to season."

"However, under these conditions, we have a good chance of a cyclone crossing the coast before the year is out." he said.

Mr Davidson urged Queenslanders to "prepare early not only for cyclones but also for floods as we have already experienced record September rainfalls across the state."

"Preparation is the key to safety, and we encourage communities to factor in the possibility of a destructive cyclone or major flood into their pre-season planning." said Mr Davidson.


Let the discussion begin . . .

Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 17:26

Was gonna say, the season doesn't start for another month yet, but interesting seasonal outlook grin

I'm happy with 6 cyclones, as long as they all don't scoot past the coast and leave us with nothing poke
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 18:17

6 is that a combined total with Qld/WA and the NT?
For my money I think 3.

One near Cooktown before Xmas.
One Townsvile area in Jan and the last one further south between mackay and Rocky right at the end of teh seaon. Hope I'm wrong. Just basing it on a gut feeling. None will be above Cat 3 when they hit teh coast.
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 18:20

Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
with up to six cyclones developing in the Coral Sea.


6 in the CS only smile
Posted by: Steven

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 19:14

The last time the 90 day SOI was this high I did not have access to the information
As of Sun Oct 3rd 2010
The 30 day SOI was +25.34 and the 90 day SOI was +21.52

Water temperatures appear to be over 26C below 20S latitude (Townsville and Cairns)
Posted by: Afroboy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 19:23

Should be an interesting season. And will be very interesting if we see even a weak cyclone form before the year is out.
To prepare, i have already arranged for a HUGE Cuban Royal palm to be taken down in my yard. If the build up to the wet season keeps up with the rain, the soil will be very soggy and will easily up root trees should there be any crossings near by.
The SOI is definitely looking good
Posted by: Steven

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 19:26

Correcting my last post (this is the Southern Hemisphere - I have spent too many hours looking at the Asian typhoon season).

Water temperatures are 26C+ near Townsville and Cairns (and further north).
This is from about 18S north to the equator

Below 18S the water temperatures are between 24C and 26C
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 19:28

Oooo I like that outlook!!! Just looking at buying some measuring equipment for the next chase we go on. Kestrel 4000 with all the bells and whistles or the Kestrel 1000 which just measures wind? Difference in price = about $300

If as he says we're looking at one before the year's out, then you'd assume it's more than likely going to be north of Cairns just for the simple reason that wind shear over the past 5 yrs has been above average through the Coral Sea despite going through a long period of la nina's and neutral years. Hopefully with this La Nina we see the STJ weaken considerably and move southwards allowing all hell to break loose in the north.

It appears as though the Solomons is heading into a period of instability with several models toying with the idea of a weak surface LOW or surface trough in the region. To date GFS is the only one that's going off the deep end with a cyclone developing east of the Solomons late next week/weekend and being whisked away as you'd expect to the SE. Looks like the entire NE Coral Sea/SW Pacific will be under a benign upper pattern associated with surface and mid level ridging from some monster southern HIGHS and a lack of upper troughs. This could be conducive for some type of development at least at surface and mid levels.

The models are certainly far more interesting this October compared to last year's one.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 19:55

Its a hard choice man, i say the most expensive one, max gust 218kmhr, humidity sensor, temp sensor,water proof, gotta love it, we need the good stuff.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 20:00

This is from WZ News page today:
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/early-cyclones-predicted-off-qld/15129

The weather bureau fears a cyclone will form off the Queensland coast by Christmas.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM) has released its seasonal outlook.

It shows a distinct La Nina weather pattern, which is expected to lead to an increase in cyclone activity in the Coral Sea.

Forecaster Tony Auden says up to six cyclones could form off Queensland in coming months.

"We are expecting ... the potential cyclone season to start early," he said.

"Normally we only very rarely get cyclones forming in December or even November, but there is every chance of an increased risk this year that we will see a tropical cyclone before about Christmas."

He says residents need to be prepared for the cyclone season and above average rainfall.

"We're expecting a fairly wet season and I guess as a proxy to that, we can expect an above average cyclone season over the next six months," he said.

He says while it is difficult to pinpoint where cyclones will form, it is likely north Queensland will see an increase in activity.

Mr Auden says at least one severe cyclone is also tipped to cross the Queensland coast.

"I guess historically we've seen ... on average about three to four cyclones in a season and I guess averaging below one coastal crossing per year," he said.

"Historically, with a similar ocean patterns we've had three similar years and all of those have seen either six or seven cyclones either in the Coral Sea and at least one severe coastal crossing."
Posted by: Ms Milo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 20:32

Bring it on
Posted by: Ms Milo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 20:33

I'm calling one for SE Qld crossing early Feb
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 20:44

I wont call anything at all until i actually see 6 Tropical cyclones in the coral sea over summer and autumn lol
Posted by: adam17

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 20:48

Originally Posted By: Ms Milo
I'm calling one for SE Qld crossing early Feb


Nope, not a chance.. Cyclones won't venture down that far any more, they're scared the government might try and sell them.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 21:08

i am not a fan of over the top cyclone predictions in la nina years. but that comment will hopefully bite me in the behind come april.
Posted by: nocturnal1

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 21:22

Oprah and her fan club might have lots of fun up there in Cairns if there's a tropical cyclone in north QLD before Christmas! grin (They are supposed to be coming in early to mid December this year).

And Ms Milo I agree, SEQ/NENSW is overdue for a crossing! I have a hunch we've got a '56 or '74 event on order for 2011...
Posted by: Mega

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 21:29

Originally Posted By: Mick10
i am not a fan of over the top cyclone predictions in la nina years. but that comment will hopefully bite me in the behind come april.

Neither, but something feels 'right' this year compared to the shocking cyclone season that was 07/08.

EDIT: rofl @ Locke's post below. laugh
Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 21:30

As for the strengthening La Nina, based on my limited understanding of the NOAA data (and forecasts), the CFS ensemble mean forecast of the Nino 3.4 SST anomalies is currently predicted to reach -2 by the end of this year. Historically, the years that we've previously seen a La Nina this strong are as follows

1956 - 6 TC's within the Coral Sea
1974 - 8 TC's within the Coral Sea
1976 - 7 TC's within the Coral Sea
1988 - 4 TC's within the Coral Sea

So based on historical data, if we see the La Nina strengthen as forecast, could certainly be a wild and woolly summer!!!
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 21:34

I'm just waiting for MikeM to post and say the season is over already.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 21:47

I'm with you there Mick10 did you you get my post that I send to you before mate?? grin smile
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 21:48

My bet is 10 or 15 Tropical Cyclone we will see this coming up summer and autumn 2010/2011.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 21:49

Like i said above i dont trust BOM outlooks for cyclones, its only a forcast, and they cant even forcast a week ahead without some great degree of error. Every time they forcast a big season its a flop. Ill sit here and wait until the uppers start to agree for cyclongenisis in a few months.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 22:01

I for got to add in this coming up Spring before as well. grin wink
Posted by: CoastalStorm22

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 22:20

What are all these people with such high hopes for the coming season going to do if it turns out to be a total flop?
Posted by: drivenunder

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 22:24

Not much we can do, but enjoy the excitement and anticipation of a few wild weather events in the coming months! Makes getting out of bed worth it. Makes tomorrow alright! Because 'Tomorrow is looking bright!'
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 22:25

Nothing, because it's weather and it's never totally predictable poke

I know some people will be different though poke
Posted by: nocturnal1

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 23:21

A) Wait for the next season, 2011-2012!! And comment on every drip and drop received in the meantime. grin wink
Posted by: Squeako da Magnifico.

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 23:24

I don't know what your mental state of mind with your nightly drinking binges are Ted. But, I can't ever recall the BOM ever forecasting more than 4 cyclones in the coral sea before let alone 6. Maybe, you are confused with some other long range forecaster who have predicted a bumper cyclone season in the past?
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 23:36

Considering the average number of crossings in QLD each year is about 1.3 (if I recall correctly) it is a fairly bullish call by BOM. Keeping in mind of course they are not actually predicting 6 crossings - only 6 in the coral sea.
Posted by: drivenunder

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/10/2010 23:47

Ba-Bum! This topic just got a whole bunch more serious!!!
Posted by: Afroboy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/10/2010 07:50

Originally Posted By: Locke
Keeping in mind of course they are not actually predicting 6 crossings - only 6 in the coral sea.

+1
My thoughts as well. As it is each year, it's a sit and wait scenario.
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/10/2010 18:17

The following quote from E-J in the FNQ thread should also be of interest here:-

"I don't know if anybody has mentioned this in this thread previously, however the last time the soi was this high in August-September was in 1917 when it reached 30+

The ensuing wet season in 1918 saw a 1 in 100 year flood event and a monster cyclone crossing the coast near Innisfail. With a number of catastrophic floods over that year."

It's interesting also to note that Mackay bore the brunt of a catastrophic cyclone (Cat 4/5), well known in this region, just a month before the February 1918 event in the Innisfail area.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/10/2010 18:30

Great points made EJ thanks for sharing RN.

Models are still favouring unsettled surface conditions for the NE Coral Sea with either a trough or weak surface LOW to develop.

ACCESS G has a LOW developing at around 170E and GFS one further east, both models have them developing to either a weak TC or pretty strong LOW and pushing SE early to mid next week. While it's a little way east of the Coral Sea it is quite interesting to see this early. I think the GFS scenario the LOW is a mid lat cold cored feature but the ACCESS G one looks more like a strong tropical LOW ???
Posted by: Occo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/10/2010 19:40

Just a question- but what area of QLD's coastline would have to be the most prone to cyclones? I know that in WA they all seem to head towards the Pilbara area- Port Headland/ Karratha etc.
Im still predicting 3 coastal crossings this season for QLD- a Cat 3- 4 hitting somewhere between Ingham and Ayr, another Cat 3- 4 hitting around the Mackay/ Whitsundays area, and a Cat 2- 3 hitting around the Wide bay area.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/10/2010 19:54

I believe its north of Cape tribulation, thats my opinion anyway.
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/10/2010 20:14

Heres the track of cyclones for the last 50 years



Spaghetti anyone? poke

Maybe try since 1993



WA looks like it comes in pretty close
Posted by: storm freak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/10/2010 20:17

Can sense the anticipation and excitement growing in this forum lol. Nitso is it possible to get a link to the models, I can't find it on bom site. Had a read of the latest tropical climate note, this is part of it.

The MJO comes alive

In late August, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) moved eastwards into Maritime Continent longitudes for the first time since May, and contributed to the development of several tropical storms in the North West Pacific. Other than that particular event, MJO activity has generally been weak and erratic.

Over the past couple of days, an active MJO has begun to develop in the eastern Indian Ocean, where warm SSTs are assisting the process.

Guidance surveyed by the Bureau are swinging into agreement, with the consensus anticipating the MJO to move into Australian longitudes over the next two weeks, with the second and third weeks of October tipped to be a wet period for northern Australia.

There is increased potential for Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea over the next week or two, as the northern hemisphere monsoon continues to migrate southwards. The risk of TC formation in the southern hemisphere is considered low, being so early in the season.
**********************************************************************

Chance of TC formation, as expected, remains low however, with the MJO anticipated to be quite active over our region the chances of the low that nitso is talking about developing into something would have to be increased. Not saying it will be a cyclone but will be interesting to see what pans out. all im hoping for is more above average rain while MJO is present in our region...Loving being part of a possibly historic event.
Posted by: Wet Wet Wet

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/10/2010 20:20

Personally I would say anywhere from Mackay northwards is at greatest risk. Fortunately/Unfortunately (however you see it) Mackay itself is apparently most vulnerable to an impact of a Severe Tropical Cyclone as we not only have a large population, but many of the dwellings here are quite old (more so than those in Townsville and Cairns), therefore are more likely to result in a debris storm.

Here’s a couple pics from the BoM site:








Adding to the comments made earlier…..3 cyclones made landfall on Queensland during the 1917/18 season. The two previously mentioned (Category 5 that hit Innisfail in March, and the Category 4/5 that crossed 20km north of Mackay), but also another Category 1/2 cyclone struck about 50km north of Mackay.

Although the category 1/2 cyclone I just mentioned seems somewhat insignificant compared to the other 2 monsters, it’s worth noting it made landfall on December 14 – quite early in the season. Not only that, normally you’d expect the early season cyclones to hit the coast further north.

And just adding to the Cat 4/5 cyclone that hit Mackay, it’s probably one of the largest cyclones to have impacted Queensland in recorded history. It caused significant structural damage to houses more than 300km south from where the eye made landfall.
Posted by: Myak-04

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/10/2010 20:20

@ Things
Hmmmmm, not so much Spaghetti, as a kid attacking the map of Australia with silly string poke.


The red line that cuts through the whole of Australia is interesting. Does anyone know which cyclone that was?
Posted by: homehillrains

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/10/2010 20:24

Originally Posted By: storm freak
Can sense the anticipation and excitement growing in this forum lol. Nitso is it possible to get a link to the models, I can't find it on bom site. Had a read of the latest tropical climate note, this is part of it.

yeah storm freak i was gunna ask for links to these models as i cant find them either
Posted by: Wet Wet Wet

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/10/2010 20:31

Originally Posted By: Myak-04
The red line that cuts through the whole of Australia is interesting. Does anyone know which cyclone that was?


That would be Severe Tropical Cyclone Gertie. Click Here for the report.
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/10/2010 20:34

Myak, that was TC Gertie in 1995 smile

EDIT: Oop, WWW beat me to it lol
Posted by: Myak-04

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/10/2010 21:51

Awesome. grin Thanks Wet Wet Wet & Things.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/10/2010 21:59

This is what they said up here in Townsville on the WIN TV Loacl news about the coming up 2010/2011 Queensland cyclone season if any one miss out on watching it.

I may well add it here for you all.

Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/10/2010 22:09

Originally Posted By: Myak-04
@ Things
Hmmmmm, not so much Spaghetti, as a kid attacking the map of Australia with silly string poke.


The red line that cuts through the whole of Australia is interesting. Does anyone know which cyclone that was?



i dont but hey it must have been one hell of a upper trough to push it over the whole continent of australia.
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/10/2010 22:39

Thanks for the video Mathew, interesting how they brought climate change into it at the end grin

Oh well, it was bound to happen.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/10/2010 22:40

That okay any time. grin wink
Posted by: nocturnal1

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/10/2010 23:45

Wild cyclone season set to blow in

Among other interesting things (see link) Sunshine Coast Daily mentioned that NZ forecaster Ken Ring is tipping NZ to be more severely affected by cyclones than QLD by this season (huh?) Apparently we'll have a wet spring but summer in QLD and in the SE coast area may be drier than usual. Now I don't understand how he came to that conclusion, apparently he predicts trends 'by calculating orbits of the moon'. I may have to look that up because I have no idea what it involves!

Personally I still think it's too early to know, anything can happen. Here's to a ripper season! grin
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/10/2010 23:49

lol, Ken Ring has a great reputation around here, ask anyone grin grin
Posted by: nocturnal1

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/10/2010 23:59

Googled him and I see what you mean Things. grin grin Somewhere out there, there's a top paddock missing its kangaroo. wink
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/10/2010 00:39

I will save you the trouble of Googling for him - Just have a look at http://www.sillybeliefs.com/ring.html#heading-1rc. Enjoy.

His ability to discount several thousand years of scientific study is well to be quite honest laughable.
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/10/2010 00:45

CYCLONES TO HAVE IMPACTED ON SOUTH EAST QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA FROM 1864 to March 2008

1) 17 - 19 March, 1864. The first recorded in Queensland. Gales in Brisbane. Damage to stores, houses, signs trees and gardens blown away. Stone jetty at Cleveland washed away. Wind and rain damage at Toowoomba and Gladstone.
2) 26 - 28 April, 1867. Southeast Queensland flooded. Wharves covered in Brisbane. Brisbane, Logan and Ipswich suffer structural and tree damage. Bridge at Ipswich destroyed.
3) 11 March, 1890. Tropical cyclone hits Brisbane. River floods - 360mm in 24 hours.
4) 2 January, 1892. Brisbane suffers damage.
5) 2 April 1892. Brisbane damaged.
6) 21 January, 1893. Brisbane homes and trees blown down.
7) 1 February, 1893. Tropical cyclone hits Yeppoon causing extreme damage. Severe floods in Ipswich and Brisbane with Indooroopilly railway bridge and Victoria bridge washed away. More than 12 deaths.
8) 11 February, 1893. Small cyclone crosses near Bustard Heads causing further flooding in Brisbane.
9) 17 February, 1893. Cyclone hits Bundaberg. Floods from Rockhampton to Grafton, NSW. Mary River bridge in Maryborough washed away with 120 houses. Cyclone induced tornado hits Sandgate.
10) 19 February, 1894. Tropical cyclones crosses east of Brisbane.
11) 5 April, 1921. Bundaberg, Maryborough and Hervey Bay suffer structural damage.
12) 2 April, 1927. Severe cyclone east of Gold Coast. Highest recorded tides cause disruption to shipping.
13) 14 February, 1928. Brisbane hit causing serious flooding with 5 people drowned.
14) 1 - 8 February, 1931. Travels from Cooktown down to Hervey Bay causing statewide flooding.
15) 1 February, 1934. This particular cyclone travelled from the Gulf to northern NSW causing widespread damage and flooding. There was a 1.16 metre storm surge recorded as the largest on record on the Moreton Bay tide gauge.
16) 22 March, 1936. Seawards of Fraser Island.
17) 16 March, 1937. Tracked from Western Australia to south-east Queensland. Severe flooding at Bundaberg and Childers.

18) 4 April, 1946. East of Fraser Island causing flooding.
19) 23 January, 1947. Cyclone crossed near Caloundra with heavy gales and high seas. Flooding. 2 dead.
20) 10 February, 1947. Tropical cyclone crossed at Broadsound causing damage to infrastructure and some lives were lost.
22) 28 January, 1948. Cyclone passes east of Brisbane with wind gusts up to 96 knots at Lord Howe Island.
23) 24 March, 1948. Structural damage and erosion as cyclone passes over Fraser Island.
24) 16-19 January, 1950. Tracked from the Gulf to Sydney. 7 lives lost in NSW. 2 metre waves in Moreton Bay with houses evacuated at Sandgate.
25) 27-28 February, 1950. Crossed over Gladstone to Hervey Bay. Floods down to Brisbane.
26) 16 November, 1950. Tropical low crosses near Brisbane causing structural damage and one death.
27) 25-30 January, 1951. Cyclone moves around Fraser Island. Extensive damage to boats and buildings with one life lost at Caloundra.
28) 19 March, 1951. Maryborough hit. Heavy rains south-east Queensland.
29) 20 February, 1954. Cyclone crosses at Coolangatta. Widespread structural damage from Sunshine Coast to Gold Coast. Boats left in treetops at Beachmere. Waves at Kirra put 2 metres of water on the highway picking up cars. 900 mm rainfall recorded in 24 hours. 26 people dead.
30) 19 February, 1957. Travelled east coast from the far north to cross at Port Macquarie in NSW. 109 knot wind gust recorded at Willis Island.
31) 21 January, 1959. CYCLONE BEATRICE. Moved south to cross near Lismore, NSW causing widespread flooding.
32) 1 January, 1963. CYCLONE ANNIE. Crossed at the Sunshine Coast with houses and crops damaged.
34) 24 April, 1963. Cyclone stayed offshore but caused huge waves and erosion on south coast.
35) 13-14 January, 1964. CYCLONE AUDREY. Tracked from Gulf to Coffs Harbour causing extensive wind damage in the western areas such as St George (74 houses damaged) and Goondiwindi where over 50 buildings suffered. Glen Innes and Grafton, NSW also had wind damage.
36) 28-30 January, 1967. CYCLONE DINAH. Severe damage at Heron Island then causing more destruction from Rockhampton to Grafton, NSW. Water knee deep in Hastings Street, Noosa from storm surge.
37) 22 February, 1967. CYCLONE BARBARA. Wind damage from Coolangatta. Crossed at Lismore, NSW.
38) 18 March, 1967. CYCLONE ELAINE. Moved past the south coast causing flooding at Logan and Brisbane with considerable beach erosion in other areas.
39) 2-4 April, 1967. CYCLONE GLENDA. Off shore of Brisbane. 16 metre waves near Gold Coast. 6 dead.
40) 17 February, 1971. CYCLONE DORA. Crossed the coast north of Brisbane at Redcliffe. Widespread structural damage with some flooding.
119) 11 February, 1972. CYCLONE DAISY. Hit Fraser Island. Over 200 homes damaged at Pialba and other areas. Severe flooding to the Gold Coast where a peak swell height was recorded at 8.3 metres.
41) 24 January, 1974. CYCLONE WANDA. Over the coast near Maryborough, it then caused significant flooding in Brisbane where 6007 homes were flooded. 13 people drowned and others died from heart attacks. The cost was $200 million (at 1974 value).
42) 6 February, 1974. CYCLONE PAM. Intense cyclone passed 500km to the east of Brisbane. Severe flooding and evacuation at Palm Beach.
43) 13 March, 1974. CYCLONE ZOE. Crossed the coast at Coolangatta then went back to sea. Floods in Brisbane with evacuations at Murwillumbah and Lismore, NSW.
44) 22 February, 1976. CYCLONE BETH. Over 200 homes damaged when it passed the Maryborough / Bundaberg area. Significant wave peaks recorded at 10 meters.
45) 4 March, 1976. CYCLONE COLIN. Generated huge waves along south Queensland beaches after moving south from Fraser Island to southern NSW where waves were recorded off Sydney Heads at 12 metres in height. Several launches were sunk or destroyed when 2 metre waves entered Botany Bay.
46) 5-6 March, 1976. CYCLONE DAWN. Crossed at Fraser Island causing some damage and coastal flooding.
47) 24 February, 1980. CYCLONE SIMON. Passed near Fraser Island with wind gusts over 100 knots. Structural damage at Hervey Bay. Wave peaks recorded at 8.9 metres.
48) 15 February, 1981. CYCLONE CLIFF. Crossed over Fraser Island to Bundaberg. Flooding to Gold Coast
49) 7-9 April, 1984. CYCLONE LANCE. Gold Coast suffered wind and rain damage to homes and high rise buildings. Peak wave heights at Brisbane station recorded at 8.8 metres.
50) 3 February, 1990. CYCLONE NANCY. Crossed near Byron Bay in NSW. 73 knot winds recorded near Brisbane. Flash flooding in Queensland and NSW caused 4 deaths and costs reached $36 million.
51) 13 January, 1992. CYCLONE BETSY. Passed seaward of Fraser Island. Caused beach erosion.
52) 17 March, 1993. CYCLONE ROGER. Passed close to Fraser Island before moving back to sea and south towards NSW. Sunshine Coast sustained damage while winds and seas closed the Port of Brisbane. Brisbane station recorded waves at 13.2 meters.
53) 20 January, 1994. CYCLONE REWA. Stayed 100km off the coast but caused flash flooding around Brisbane which resulted in 4 deaths.
54) 8 March, 1995. CYCLONE VIOLET. Passed close to Lord Howe Island before weakening near Byron Bay, NSW.
55) 9 January, 1996. CYCLONE BARRY. Moved down from the Gulf past Sarina to Hervey Bay causing structural and vegetation damage.
56) 26 March, 1998. CYCLONE YALI. Passed seawards off Brisbane heading south. Wind gusts of 54 knots and peak wave height recorded at 11.5 metres. Beach erosion from Sunshine Coast to Northern NSW.
57) BENI 2 - 5 February 2003. Beni caused floods from Rockhampton to the Gold Coast causing $10M worth of damage to public infrastructure. Waves were recorded to 8.5metres.
58) Hybrid Cyclone 5 March 2004. Waves to 14.2metres recorded off Stradbroke Island. Severe flooding from Sunshine Coast through Brisbane to Gold Coast.
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/10/2010 00:50

58 out of 189 Cyclones recorded since records started have been in the south east (my selection was Rocky and south). The rest, above Rockhampton so it would seem that we get a few more than our southern bretheren.
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/10/2010 00:53

http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/ excellent resource for those looking for old cyclone data, track maps etc. About 1/3 down the page on the right is a selection drop down box which starts around 1900 to present.
Posted by: !SCHUMMY!

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/10/2010 00:58

Originally Posted By: Sir BoabTree
I will save you the trouble of Googling for him - Just have a look at http://www.sillybeliefs.com/ring.html#heading-1rc. Enjoy.

His ability to discount several thousand years of scientific study is well to be quite honest laughable.


haha that was hilarious, and he says we are gonna have a dry summer....yeah right haha
Posted by: nocturnal1

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/10/2010 03:18

Thanks Sir BoabTree that was a good read, and the list of past cyclones to have impacted SEQ is quite impressive as well! I agree Schummy, a drier than normal summer in SEQ and NE NSW this season just doesn't seem likely somehow...

I am going out on a limb and predicting a coastal crossing of a TC south of Brisbane and north of Byron Bay in 2011. No reason at all, just a gut feeling... and yes maybe wishful thinking as well. wink Guess I should be careful what I wish for!
Posted by: james1977

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/10/2010 06:19

I think ole ken is orbiting the moon,never heard such crap..
Thanks for that sir boab tree that was very intresting...
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/10/2010 08:29

Originally Posted By: Things
Thanks for the video Mathew, interesting how they brought climate change into it at the end grin

Oh well, it was bound to happen.

its was actually julian from the BOM who brought up the climate subject during the interview. indicating that with warmer temps over future years the higher the chances of more cyclones. was suprised to hear a BOM met bring up the subject.
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/10/2010 17:16

Well, "climate change" is OK, although global warming is different.

The climate is changing, but I believe it's just part of a cycle, not something exclusively caused by humans.
Posted by: homehillrains

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/10/2010 18:20

Originally Posted By: Things
Well, "climate change" is OK, although global warming is different.

The climate is changing, but I believe it's just part of a cycle, not something exclusively caused by humans.


yes i agree with you on that one things
Posted by: drivenunder

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/10/2010 18:55

Well said things. In a poll last year - 70% of people believed in climate change. Since the 'climategate' scandal and all the leaked emails RE: climate change - a recent poll shows that 25% believe in climate change now.

Climate change is a bunch of hooey - but they still want the ETS and tax everyone!! Pfft! The climate is part of a cooling and warming cycle!
Posted by: markm9

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/10/2010 19:48

I agree, it is cyclical, and we do not influence all, but still contribute.

Maybe Bunderberg or Hervey Bay would be due in Jan/Feb but I wouldn't discount at the top of Mortean Island for a crossing.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/10/2010 20:56

well julian yesterday mentioned the period of 73-76 as being the last time we had a similar set up to the current one. looking back on those 3 years, was a pretty active cyclone. of course cyclone Wanda causing devestating floods in the SE corner.
Posted by: Stevo59

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/10/2010 10:18

[quote=markm9]I agree, it is cyclical, and we do not influence all, but still contribute.

And that is exactly what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have been saying since they were formed. Their official definition of climate change says this:
“Climate change is any long-term significant change in the “average weather” that a given region experiences. Average weather may include average temperature, precipitation and wind patterns. It involves changes in the variability or average state of the atmosphere over durations ranging from decades to millions of years. These changes can be caused by dynamic processes on Earth, external forces including variations in sunlight intensity, and more recently by human activities.” (IPCC 2007)
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/10/2010 11:18

http://www.derm.qld.gov.au/register/p00022aa.pdf some interesting information about Cyclones and storm surge including a couple of photos of the beaches of the Gold Coast after a cyclone in the mid 60's.
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/10/2010 11:21

BOM Reort on STC Althea - warning 4.6Mb download http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/pdf/althea.pdf
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/10/2010 11:42

That is a long read, about 65 pages but the most telling are reading the offical warnings and then viewing the radar images. Top speed wind speed recorded at Townsville airport was gusts between 190 and 200 kph with a later revison that the strongest gust was around 215kph according to unoffical sources. Wind measuring was not accurate due to teh influences of Castle Hill. The photos are very grainy but viewable.
Of interest was the use of automatic weather stations on teh reef which gave detailed information up until the time the radio tower that was receving teh reports was damaged and until it was repaired no further reports where heard.
The storm surge increased the tide height from an expected 2.4 metres to a whopping 4.25 metres which increased the damage considerably.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/10/2010 14:02

A facinating read SirBoab, I find this bit particularly amusing in regards to the location of the Mt Stuart radar:

Quote:
The Bureau tenure of this site is temporary only and
It will be necessary to find another location suitable for the
Purpose of tracking cyclones by 1977. Mt Elliott would be
Suitable from the aspect of radar coverage.


We're still waiting...

Scary to think that the BOM had to rely on U.S. satellite images generated once every 24 hours to initially track the cyclone and on a newly installed Mt Stuart radar that was suffering from power failures. How far we have come!

On topic, I'm convinced that this coming season will be a ripper. It will be interesting to read the Tropical Storm Risk's (TSR) next forecast for Aust when it's issued in November. The last report indicated that Tropical Storm activity will be 20% above normal.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/10/2010 15:19

Our Monsoon is on it's way as we get into the next week.....

Just got to be cool people is the key. grin wink
Posted by: Steven

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/10/2010 17:31

Believe me the monsoon is coming; it is now causing serious damage in Hainan (near Guangdong, China). Multiple news articles in the Chinese media reporting more than 100,000 people have been evacuated.

Very severe flooding has been reported in Central Vietnam; at least 20 people have died

Edit: I have just seen some news reports of serious flooding in Indonesia
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/10/2010 19:42

I just watch the Townsville Win TV news they had some things about the Cyclone Season tell people to get there kid ready.....
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/10/2010 11:30

I think you mean get your cyclone kit ready Matthew. grin

The large High over the southern regions will dominate our weather for at least a week if not more and that blows any chance for rain developing for teh next few weeks.

Too early to tell about any possible lows forming in teh Coral Sea just yet. Water temps are still a bit low and conditions not quite ready but in a few weeks who knows.
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/10/2010 12:48

I'm not sure if anyone here follows the Madden Julien Ossilation (MJO) but its absolutely cranking into our part of the world at the moment. Australia is PHASE 3,4,5,6 MJO MAP HERE

The BOM weekly Tropical note seems to back this up with a snippet from it
'Over the past couple of days, an active MJO has begun to develop in the eastern Indian Ocean, where warm SSTs are assisting the process. Guidance surveyed by the Bureau are swinging into agreement, with the consensus anticipating the MJO to move into Australian longitudes over the next two weeks, with the second and third weeks of October tipped to be a wet period for northern Australia.'

All positive signs to an active cyclone season. I still think we are a tad early for a cyclone to form but when the next phase of the MJO swings our way in 40+ days, hold on to you hats. I reckon last week in November will be OZ's first cyclone if this MJO thing actually works out.
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/10/2010 12:53

With the MJO, watch the cloud thicken up over Indonesia in the next week, North of Darwin after that and then its Nth Qld's turn in a few weeks. Should get some rain allround to add to an allready bumper early build up. YEEE HAHHH. Broome will missout no doubt.
Posted by: adam17

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/10/2010 13:46

Interesting times. Might start on cleaning up that yard..
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/10/2010 15:45

Yep that what I mean before get your cyclone kit ready.
Posted by: Wet Wet Wet

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/10/2010 22:39

Originally Posted By: Mathew
I just watch the Townsville Win TV news they had some things about the Cyclone Season tell people to get there kid ready.....

Originally Posted By: Sir BoabTree
I think you mean get your cyclone kit ready Matthew. grin


What a shame, and here I was duct-taping all the kids to the light poles around town....


Originally Posted By: Raindammit
A facinating read SirBoab, I find this bit particularly amusing in regards to the location of the Mt Stuart radar:

Quote:
The Bureau tenure of this site is temporary only and
It will be necessary to find another location suitable for the
Purpose of tracking cyclones by 1977. Mt Elliott would be
Suitable from the aspect of radar coverage.


We're still waiting...


I’m not too sure we’ll live to see the day that happens RD. Since Mt Elliot is listed as a National Park I’m not sure if building a radar at the top would be permitted these days. Perhaps if it could be argued that implementing such a resource would be an investment in the community by providing higher accuracy plotting and improved forecasting therefore potentially resulting in an earlier warning system it may be granted. But with the major advances in technology since the 1970’s with real-time satellite images, observations and ever improving forecasting computer models the idea made be quickly overturned.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/10/2010 23:21

the cost of building a road up there alone, and as mentioned thru a NP, yeah pretty remote.
Posted by: Stevo59

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/10/2010 23:24

Road access is probably the main issue rather than being National Park. The Saddle Mtn radar near Cairns is in the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area but is accessible from the Kuranda Range Rd. Mt Stuart, behind Townsville has an access road. I agree that Mt Elliot would make an ideal radar site for coverage of the Innisfail to Bowen region, but how would the technicians get in to do maintenance? A heli-pad is a possibility, but expensive and as you say, the area is now gazetted as a national park, so probably won't happen. Interesting all the same to read what BoM were thinking about in the 1970s.

For FNQ, a radar on top of Mt Bellenden Ker would be great, as there is a cableway to service it. This would be the highest radar in Qld at 1550 m above sea level, providing an unobstructive view over a wide area. The Saddle Mt radar frequenty does not pick up the big rain events we often see between Babinda and Tully due to topographic obstruction of the radar. Mind you, that region is well covered by the radar network. For example, the Mt Stuart radar provided better tracking of STC Larry as it approached the coast than the Saddle Mt radar.
Posted by: Stevo59

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/10/2010 19:54

The MJO continues to intensify as it moves into the Maritime Continent region.

http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html

There is a lot of convective activity in the South China Sea and Bay of Bengal atm, so look out for tropical cyclone development in those regions over comings days.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDX1374.shtml

Mods, given the strong La Nina and likely interactions this year with the MJO, is it worth having a separate MJO 2010/2011 wet season thread to post updates and views, etc? Just a thought.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/10/2010 19:57

Originally Posted By: Stevo59
Mods, given the strong La Nina and likely interactions this year with the MJO, is it worth having a separate MJO 2010/2011 wet season thread to post updates and views, etc? Just a thought.


There's usually an MJO/Monsoon discussion thread running every year so I think it'd be a good idea to start one for the 2010/2011 season.
Posted by: KevD

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/10/2010 21:51

Feel free Mega / Stevo - go for it :-)

Edit: here you go, as soon I type, up it pops - nice one Popeye -> -> MJO 2010 / 2011 <-
Posted by: cyclone man

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 12/10/2010 19:12

wow sure dose look like a nice rainy and cyclonic season this year ay smile lol
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 15/10/2010 15:54

What the chance of seeing an early Tropical Cyclone development next week or the Week after in the Queensland coral sea just need a update that would be great thanks?
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 15/10/2010 16:21

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/aus.slp.html <<<
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 15/10/2010 17:24

Doubt we'll see anything in the CS just yet Mathew, if anything I think the first cyclone will be for our friends up Northwest.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 15/10/2010 17:36

Thanks for that cyclone update any way.
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 15/10/2010 22:41

Exciting/scary/unknown times ahead for all Australia's tropics this year. We have our WA cyclone outlook due out on Monday. Will probably say 1 before Xmas and a higher than normal occurance of cyclones this year. I honestly think this season will be a cracker. La Nina, Indian ocean dipole, all the models pointing to unseen setups since 1974, strongest MJO's since 1985, Gotta be a big season. I suppose WA has a huge uninhabited coastline so a direct hit on a town is smaller compared to Qld where a biggie coming in has a good chance of hitting near a town of 25,000 to 100,000 people.

I suppose thats why when a cyclone in Qld is near we have up to 600 people at one time on these forums watching live with posts every few seconds. Cant wait for everyones input this year, love reading all the posts, learning heaps, laughing at some of the comments, watching all the heated debates and the mods stepping in. Good luck everyone this year. Hope we have some exciting times ahead.
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 15/10/2010 22:47

Will definitely be a year to remember the way it's going. I've only ever been in 1 cyclone my life (16 now), Cyclone Steve smile

Cat 1 right over the top of us (Clifton beach) and it was both terrifying and fun at the same time.
Posted by: JoshweatherNOW

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/10/2010 08:31

I was in Mena creek wen larry hit and i lived in cairns when Cyclone Steve hit(16 now)....absolutly Amazing
Posted by: drivenunder

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/10/2010 10:35

I hope to have my first one this year! I had Olga last year but that does not count! I'm 27 and cycloneless frown
Posted by: I_Luv_Cairns

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/10/2010 15:44

I now live in Cairns but lived in Mirriwinni between Babinda and Innisfail and went thru the eye of Cyclone Larry. My family and I were lucky but many of our friends were not and lost their homes. It was one of the most scary days of my life. If Cairns was hit full on with the force of Larry I would hate to see the damage and also the flooding if a cyclone happened with a tidal surge. I believe my workplace would no longer be there as I work in Redden Street, Portsmith. Something is telling me this year to be prepared so with four kids and including the daughters boyfriend making five me and the hubby are going to prepare early
Posted by: KevD

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/10/2010 15:56

Welcome to the forum - look forward to sharing the season with you and all the other posters smile Should be interesting for sure. Great post Popeye - indeed, fun times ahead. Wishing all of you some great weather and no direct hits over your own place!
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/10/2010 06:41

Here's Qld's.

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/cyclone/seasonal/
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/10/2010 07:39

That was posted nearly 2 weeks ago in the very first post CF... wink
Posted by: Stevo59

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/10/2010 11:00

Another media story about the upcoming cyclone season:

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/featu...f-1225939565460

BoM do not normally get this concerned with seasonal forecasting, so it must be a ripper of a La Nina.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/10/2010 13:20

intersting that already the SSTs in the cs are 24-30C from fraser island northwards and that much of the cs is 2C above normal
Posted by: cyclone man

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/10/2010 17:01

they say Tc's will track thurther south than normal dose that mean the whitsundays and mackay area will b in a bigger risk than of a cyclone??
Posted by: cyclone man

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/10/2010 17:03

risk of a cyclone i mean lol
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/10/2010 17:46

I think Mackay is already at a pretty big cyclone risk, it kinda puts Brisbane and the top of NSW at risk.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/10/2010 18:56

anywhere from the cape to northern nsw is at risk but this season central/southern QLD and far northern NSW are more at risk than normal
Posted by: cyclone man

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/10/2010 18:56

wow betta start making sure ive got everything just to be prepared thanks for that Things
Posted by: cyclone man

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/10/2010 18:56

thanks squid
Posted by: thomo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 18/10/2010 18:29

Seasonal Outlook for Tropical Cyclones

The outlook suggests that the coming tropical cyclone season is likely to have
  • a higher than average number of tropical cyclones over the full Australian region,
  • a higher than average number of tropical cyclones in the Western region,
  • an average to above average number of tropical cyclones in the Northern region,
  • a higher than average number of tropical cyclones in the Eastern region.

For the full Australian region, there is a high degree of confidence that the total number of tropical cyclones will be above average (see Table 1). The forecast values from the two models (20-22) are significantly higher than the long-term average value of 12. The likely number of tropical cyclones is indicative only. It is expected that the total number of tropical cyclones will be in the vicinity of the values listed, and not necessarily within the given range. The values are the most likely number of tropical cyclones forecast by two models.

Regional features
  • The largest increase in tropical cyclone numbers is expected to occur in the Western region, where 11-12 tropical cyclones are forecast (4-5 more than the average value of 7 tropical cyclones).
  • For the Northern region, an average to higher than average number of tropical cyclones is expected with 5 tropical cyclones being forecast (the average value is 4 tropical cyclones). However, as the statistical model used to produce this forecast has low skill in this region, this prediction should be used with some caution.
  • The Eastern region is expected to experience a higher than average number of tropical cyclones, with about 6-7 tropical cyclones being forecast (the average value is 4 tropical cyclones).
  • The outlook for tropical cyclones in the area from 105°E to 130°E, where tropical cyclones can impact upon coastal WA communities, shows a 75% chance of above average tropical cyclone numbers for the 2010/11 season. However, forecast confidence for this region is relatively low.

This outlook covers the period from July 2010 to June 2011. Most tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere occur from November until April.

Production of the Outlook

This outlook is produced based on statistical relationships between tropical cyclone numbers and two indicators: the Southern Oscillation Index2 (SOI) and the Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly3. These two indicators provide a measure of the strength of the atmospheric and oceanic state, respectively, of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

The mid-October assessment of ENSO conditions by the Bureau of Meteorology4 states that the La Niña in the Pacific Ocean is a moderate to strong event, and that La Niña conditions are likely to continue until at least early 2011. Surface conditions are also warmer than average in the Coral Sea, off Australia's northern coasts and in the far western Tropical Pacific. The current La Niña is highlighted by the SOI, which has been showing very high positive values since August (Figure 2). The majority of international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology predict that La Niña conditions are likely to persist into at least the first quarter of 2011, as also indicated by the Bureau's climate model (Figure 3).
Posted by: JoshweatherNOW

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 18/10/2010 19:42

The national season prediction rekons about 6-7 in the coral sea...THats heaps smile
Posted by: mick87

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 18/10/2010 20:00

Bring on a repeat of ului for mackay!
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 18/10/2010 20:09

Should have been in prossie mate, just a stiff breeze in mackay poke
Posted by: markm9

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 18/10/2010 20:28

I might pencil one in between Wide Bay and Gold Coast, but the action will be around Cairns to Mackay earlier in the season.

Looking forward to the season.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 18/10/2010 22:39

i was reading through the east coast TC impacts last night and i found it interesting that in 1893 and in 1974 when brisbane and surrounds had severe floods Se QLD also got visited by 3 tcs in those years, and this season is looking very similar to those years.
Posted by: Terrano

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 18/10/2010 23:26

Good to see the forum active again. Looking forward to an exciting season - though preferably no cat 4's for Innisfail please.
Posted by: JoshweatherNOW

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/10/2010 08:20

Originally Posted By: Terrano
Good to see the forum active again. Looking forward to an exciting season - though preferably no cat 4's for Innisfail please.

Yes that would not be advised
Posted by: Sandfly

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/10/2010 11:10

Hi all, this is my first post.
I am very interested to see what this season brings to Northern Australia. I have been watching the various climactic indicators with growing anticipation and a little concern too.
So here is hoping that the season brings many interesting and unique events with limited loss of property and god-forbid; life.
Posted by: snugaroo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/10/2010 15:03

That would be typical. Live up north for 2 years and see diddly squat then move to emu park and get thwomped. *rolls eyes* Nothing too nasty for SE please grin
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/10/2010 20:58

interesting read form the weather channel


An earlier and more active tropical cyclone season for Australian waters

Approximately 15 tropical cyclones are predicted to form within Australian waters this coming wet season, with around half (7-8) likely to cross the coast.

“In a neutral year (neither La Nina or El Nino), we tend to see around 10 tropical cyclones in Australian waters. However, in a La Nina year, such as this year, a 50% increase in cyclone development is often experienced,” says Alex Zadnik, Meteorologist at The Weather Channel.

“Cyclones derive their energy from warm sea surface temperatures. During a La Nina year, we see warmer than usual sea surface temperatures around northern and eastern Australia. In turn, this increases the chance of tropical cyclones,” he continues.

“Based on a 50% increase in tropical cyclone activity, we can expect to see around 15 tropical cyclones form in Australian waters within the longitudes of 105°E to 160°E,” says Zadnik.

“Additionally, the season is likely to begin earlier. Typically, the first cyclone is around Christmas, but this year the first cyclone could occur as early as November,” continues Zadnik.

“Australia has been feeling the influence of a strong La Nina pattern so far this spring, with record rainfall occurring through northern and eastern parts of the country. With the likelihood of an earlier and more active season, residents in cyclone-prone regions of tropical Australia should get a head start on their usual wet season preparations,” he concludes.
Posted by: JoshweatherNOW

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/10/2010 21:10

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/tc.shtml
BOM rekons 20-22 forming in Australian waters this season and the average number in 12. Also 6-7 forming in the Coral Sea..:)
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/10/2010 22:52

CYCLONE PARTY!!! CANON BALLL!!! (yes, Ron Burgandy will be there)
Posted by: marakai

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/10/2010 00:21

Im just waiting for the windows open/ windows closed question and the endless arguments, could Weatherzone post a sticky with the latest up to date advice from the professionals on this subject so the answer is a simple link instead of the endless arguments and advice?
It happens every year and wastes heaps of bandwidth and time.
Posted by: JoshweatherNOW

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/10/2010 21:15

But marakai thats the fun right??
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/10/2010 22:23

Mythbusters tested it, although I doubt the episode has aired in Aus yet, it was released quite a few weeks ago.

IIRC it doesn't matter. The windows don't take enough surface area of the wall to make much of a difference, and all your stuff just gets soaked.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/10/2010 23:27

Originally Posted By: Things
Mythbusters tested it, although I doubt the episode has aired in Aus yet, it was released quite a few weeks ago.

IIRC it doesn't matter. The windows don't take enough surface area of the wall to make much of a difference, and all your stuff just gets soaked.


laugh here we go......
Posted by: JoshweatherNOW

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/10/2010 08:15

I Lived in mena Creek when larry hit and the water went through our closed windows anyway...before it pushed them in @_@
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/10/2010 08:25

let not get on that debate and stick to the purpose of this thread dont want to sift though pages of arguments and dribble to get to what i want to read
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/10/2010 09:01

Agreed...
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/10/2010 16:09

Just letting a lots of people There are no cyclone warning out this afternoon for Queensland it's only a Test only.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/10/2010 16:11

Yes, they did the same thing on WA's side yesterday.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/10/2010 16:14

It's got to be why they done that for is I like to know why?

This is what they said up here in Townsville on the WIN TV Loacl news about the coming up 2010/2011 Queensland cyclone season if any one miss out on watching it.

I may well add it here for you all.


Posted by: markm9

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/10/2010 16:57

Originally Posted By: Mathew
Just letting a lots of people There are no cyclone warning out this afternoon for Queensland it's only a Test only.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml


Thanks for that, nearly fell of my chair when I read "Norfolk Island Tropical Cyclone Track Map " but quickly realised it said test.

Guess they get ready for a big season that starts in a bit over a weeks times.

Maybe testing a migration of data from a testing platform onto the live BOM site.

Would have thought they could have done it all in a testing environment though.

Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/10/2010 17:34

They could have done it in a testing environment, however they'd need a separate server to be able to run all the scripts correctly, so it's just easier to do it on the one they are gonna be running the site on.
Posted by: markm9

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/10/2010 17:55

They usually have good procedures with their IT management in Government, but how about buying another server with an image.

It's is a better test to put something live. I personally don't like it because it can bring an entire system down if not managed correctly, plus looks dodgy to the public, humors me smile.

Testing in a production environment is a new concept to me. Maybe someone ran the scripts against the wrong database, but if they did it somewhere yesterday as mentioned must have been planned.
Posted by: cyclone man

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/10/2010 00:13

i dont no why but i am pretty keen for this season with everyone talking about 6-7 cyclones in coral sea makes me even more kken lol
Posted by: lollypop25

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/10/2010 19:05

I am amazed still at the whole attitude towards cyclones (ie the it wont happen here ect ect)

As I work in a field where in case of a cyclone i will be activly assisting peeps I did a large cyclone shop this week, as I went thru the checkout the girl said is there a cyclone as it was obvious as i had all the cyclone staples I said NO just getting prepared , she laughed and said all the talk of a big season was just hype and mumbo jumbo..

Why is it that we are hearing predictions from people trained to track the weather and generally that attitude is ...what do they know.. Oh well now im fairly prepared i will just sit and watch with anticipation...lolly
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/10/2010 19:55

most people that live in townsville havnt been in a cyclone though, the last one was nearly eleven years ago, its easy to forget.
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/10/2010 19:57

I don't even remember tessie, Melbourne Storms were worse than that puff of wind.

a good cyclone will really wake townsville up though. I'll be telling mum to stock up soon
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/10/2010 17:13

The ABC on Radio National's 'Australia Talks' this afternoon has a program on the current la nina and its potential impact on the upcoming cyclone/wet season. It's on today after the 5pm (EST) news and definitely worth a listen.

http://www.abc.net.au/cgi-bin/common/pla...w=RN.asx&t=&p=3
Posted by: Mega

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/10/2010 17:17

I will be listening in for sure, thank you IW.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/10/2010 19:53

When their a ads is on during a after a TV show or Movie or other why don't they put the Tropical Cyclone Warning Test Live test on TV it's just a idea or during it maybe and have a Signal with it hopefully people will get a idea what we get in north Queensland who is with me or not on that one??

If their is any more idea be free to put them in it's was just a idea.
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/10/2010 20:04

We get adds from our local electricity companies warning about cyclone clean up especially aroud power lines, also some other government cyclone pre season adds which just inform people. Maybe we have a lot of vacant air time on our TV channels (cause our population for all of WA north of Perth is probably only 70,000 people) so they just plug the spots full of various community stuff. I Would imagine air time on TV on the east coast/built up areas would have a much higher $$ value. You might freak a few people out if it went to air.
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/10/2010 20:15

What was that big cyclone a couple of years ago that cruised off the QLD coast way down south still as a CAT 4-5 and then buggered off into the Pacific?? I reckon this season SE QLD has a 'real' possibility of one of those things clobbering them. There was a bit of a talk on ABC about it and if there is any year it could happen it definately has a increased chance in such a strong LA NINA year as this one.

Does anyone have any info about previous strong LA NINA years and is there a common directional movement of Cyclones in the Coral sea during these years or are they just too random and go where they please.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/10/2010 20:24

This is what I mean.

Just to show you all what I really mean.

hopefully some things will come up during this coming up 2010/2011 Queensland cyclone season by the BoM.

Posted by: Dark&Stormy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/10/2010 20:28

That was Cyclone Hammish Popeye, travelled down off the qld coast line and teased everyone and then scaring Hervey Bay for a possible crossing then went out to sea instead, if any cyclone crosses the coast behind Fraser Island it and can be disasterious look at what TC Wanda did for Brisbane in the early 70's major floods and in that particular time was a strong La Nina.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/10/2010 20:37

Originally Posted By: dawoodman
I don't even remember tessie, Melbourne Storms were worse than that puff of wind.

a good cyclone will really wake townsville up though. I'll be telling mum to stock up soon


140kmhr wind gusts and 260mm of rain overnight isnt a puff off wind wink
Posted by: Mega

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/10/2010 20:40

Originally Posted By: Popeye
What was that big cyclone a couple of years ago that cruised off the QLD coast way down south still as a CAT 4-5 and then buggered off into the Pacific?? I reckon this season SE QLD has a 'real' possibility of one of those things clobbering them. There was a bit of a talk on ABC about it and if there is any year it could happen it definately has a increased chance in such a strong LA NINA year as this one.

You wouldn't happen to be talking about TC Hamish would you? Although, in the end, he didn't really bugger off into the Pacific, but was torn to shreds by strong wind shear, and the lower-circulation was pushed back to the NW.

I really have no idea what to think of this upcoming season. I know history states that La-Nina years tend to produce more cyclones, but I'm still skeptical. The current state of the upper levels over the Coral Sea is abysmal when compared to this time last year. There is still plenty of time for this to change though, I think I remember rambling on about how poor the uppers were only two weeks before Hamish was born.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/10/2010 20:43

Your right though Mega, maybe im wrong but im thinking more of a 2008 set up.....Monsoonal winds mixed with huge upper troughs in central australia will probably bring a hell of alot of rain and thunderstorms across eastern queensland, however i believe that the current winter pattern in the uppers will die of ( they always do for a short peroid around late febuary to march ) which will bring the first westward moving cyclones out of the coral sea. I think we are a long way from seeing our first cyclone in the coral sea, maybe the gulf in december but there is just to much shear frown
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/10/2010 21:41

looks like a lot of the early season cyclones like to head to Townsville?
6 December, 1964. CYCLONE FLORA. Innisfail to Cardwell reported damage.
24 December, 1971. CYCLONE ALTHEA.
19 December, 1973. CYCLONE UNA. Crossed near Townsville
22-25 December, 1990. CYCLONE JOY. Travelled past Cairns to weaken in intensity crossing at Townsville
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/10/2010 21:45

The BOM have a weak low forming on their 4 day charts
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/10/2010 21:55

Originally Posted By: dawoodman
I don't even remember tessie, Melbourne Storms were worse than that puff of wind.

a good cyclone will really wake townsville up though. I'll be telling mum to stock up soon


I remember Tessie well. No power for 4 days and ice sold out across the city by day 2 lol. I was working out at Sun Metals at the time and will never forget driving back into the city at night and seeing no 'glow' whatsoever. Had to drive with high beams down Nathan St just to see where I was going..

Interesting stats there mission_shak!
Posted by: dylos

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/10/2010 00:44

does anyone have shear maps? and what is conducive to the westward track of a cyclone in the coral sea?
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/10/2010 16:42

Try going into this web sites here that may help you there or go into Google Earth the weather will come up with the update Satellite Images on it that may help you as well. grin wink

http://img195.imageshack.us/i/colawundergroundmslpgeo.gif/

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 27/10/2010 00:01

Originally Posted By: dylos
does anyone have shear maps? and what is conducive to the westward track of a cyclone in the coral sea?


Hi Dylos

Great Q.

A weatward track requires easterly upper winds. Now for a developing cyclone we generally look at the winds between the 850 - 500HPA levels although for a real shallow system (often referred to as a sheared system) you can take the mean directional flow from 850 - 700HPA level. Weak and poorly formed cyclones are very easy to forecast. They will almost always follow their surrounding environment. A weak or poorly formed cyclone will generally move west or SW when there's a big HIGH south or south west of it and move SE when there's a LOW or cold front south or south east of it. If there's neither of those things around it, it will generally just move slowly west (more common) or remain stationary (less common).

Now it gets a little trickier for stronger systems. We need to take a more 'upper level' look at what steers them. We need to look at the environmental flow in the 500/300HPA levels. However we also need to pay attention to the 700HPA mid level flow as well. These cyclones tend to be a little more unpredictable. They keep people guessing a little longer than the weak ones do, because you're never quite certain about what will become the dominant steering influence. for example, sometimes we might have a surface or mid level ridge south of it which means it should move west, but then we also have a weak upper level trough in the vicinity of the system which might want to push it SE. So where does it go? These ones tend to keep the BOM boys interested. Even these ones are reasonbably easy to predict in a strong surrounding environmental flow though. These ones really give people headaches if they happen to be located near the coast and in a weak steering environment.

The monster ones give the most headaches we're talking about the Hamishes and Justins (1997 - lasted almost a whole month and moved in almost every compass direction) which are huge in diameter and also quite intense. They can influence the environment around them and the surrounding flow may have less of an effect on their movement (Hamish sat off the coast for days while upper troughs and ridges were pushing south of him - he just didn't budge, he was big and ugly enough to defy the environment around him and basically created his own immediate environment. As he weakened though he once again reverted to the type of cyclone I mentioned above in the second paragraph). Unfortunately it's these ones that are so important to get right but we just can't do it yet. As a general rule you need to look pretty much at 500 - 300HPA winds for these paying specific attention at the 300HPA level. These monsters will move a lot slower (in general) than their smaller cousins and will move a little more unpredictably.

For us here in NQ to be in with a shot of a westward moving cyclone. We need a ridge of HIGH pressure to the south and we need the Sub tropical jet stream and any associated nasties like cold fronts and upper troughs to be well away from the Coral Sea.

As for shear maps http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...shr&zoom=&time= Cyclones will form in areas of less than 20knot wind shear. they will survive in up to 30 knots and will weaken in anything higher than that.

Posted by: dylos

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 27/10/2010 05:49

thanks nitso that was very informative....can wait to put my new knowledge hopefully into practice soon smile
Posted by: dylos

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 27/10/2010 05:56

nitso do you know what levels the east - west trade winds are, from this developing la nina i mean, just wondering if these have any affect on the movement of tropical systems?
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 27/10/2010 17:00

Hi Dylos,

Trade winds are stronger than normal due to stronger than normal HIGH pressure systems. That's why we've seen record rainfalls over the tropics. Ridging in the low levels also extends to 700HPA but not to 500HPA. Therefore the upper conditions right now would not be in favour of anything other than a very shallow or weak LOW (trough system) to approach us from the east.

The situation changes every few days though during the wet season. RWM keeps us posted in the Bowen to Cardwell thread about how the upper pattern is evolving when things start to get interesting (keep an eye out for his posts - they are always informative) RWM likes to particularly look at the "Upper upper levels" 300/200HPA levels as a good guide for movement.

What we're hoping to see in LaNina years is a decrease in wind shear. This hasn't happened for the last few La Nina's because the jet stream has remained way too far north. If we gel small amounts of shear coupled with above average water temps and a vigorous monsoonal flow = epic cyclone season. That's the forecast, but let's see what happens. So far wind shear is above average due to extra large HIGH pressure systems and stronger than normal low level easterlies. However, it's not even cyclone season yet so let's see what happens starting mid December onwards.
Posted by: Steven

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 27/10/2010 18:35

Nitso,

This implies the SOI would drop over the summer months as the Highs entering the Tasman Sea would have to be weaker.
Hence I conclude they would be weaker near Tahiti and this translates into the SOI falling

When I get some spare time I will do some digging and find out if previous La Nina events showed this
Posted by: Stevo59

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 27/10/2010 21:11

If the La Nina (and Walker Circulation) remains strong, I would not get too excited about too many severe TCs approaching the Qld coast this season. There is a much greater possibilty of weaker or moderate systems making landfall over central and SEQ, like 1974, but severe systems are more common in neutral and some El Nino years when the trades are weaker.
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 27/10/2010 23:28

4 days till the official "start" of the cyclone season grin

Looking forward to being able to read the cyclone outlooks.
Posted by: cyclone man

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/10/2010 08:20

same here :)but i dont think there will be much excitment untill mid november or early december:)
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/10/2010 08:27

Originally Posted By: Stevo59
If the La Nina (and Walker Circulation) remains strong, I would not get too excited about too many severe TCs approaching the Qld coast this season. There is a much greater possibilty of weaker or moderate systems making landfall over central and SEQ, like 1974, but severe systems are more common in neutral and some El Nino years when the trades are weaker.


I agree. History has proven this.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/10/2010 08:47

.... also Hamished proved that wind shear does not always weaken a cyclone. He barrelled hs way through shear of greater than 80 knots and actually caused a redirection of the STJ and only started to die when ocean temps got too low south of Mackay. Infact he strengthened right down to the Whitsundays through shear of well over 40 knots.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/10/2010 14:45

theres nice looking cloud development in the CS atm and yesterday evening. You can see it sheering off low pressure bubbles. Pity the sheer is so high. Looks like a bubble of lower sheer between 0 and 30Knts is moving through shortly but to be followed by another burst of very high sheer. when does the sheer look to ease permanently over the CS/SP?
Posted by: Mega

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/10/2010 14:46

I don't know how many times it has to be said...but the STJ was actually weakening very quickly to the south of Hamish which is why he had a free run down the coastline without any hassles whatsoever. In the end it WAS higher windshear which ripped him apart near Fraser Island, wasn't it?
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/10/2010 16:15

Please be aware it's is the start of our 2010/2011 Queensland Tropical Cyclone Season for Queensland it's bring next week.

I am really looking forward to all the BoM Tropical cyclone outlook to see what developing in the Queensland coral sea.

What that nice blob sitting out there way out in the Queensland cora sea should we been keeping a watch on it or not just need a little cyclone update that would be nice thanks??

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDX1124.shtml
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/10/2010 16:22

Originally Posted By: Mega
I don't know how many times it has to be said...but the STJ was actually weakening very quickly to the south of Hamish which is why he had a free run down the coastline without any hassles whatsoever. In the end it WAS higher windshear which ripped him apart near Fraser Island, wasn't it?


Go and have a plod through the 150+ pages of Hamish and in there you find a post containing a link that quite clearly shows Hamish cutting through high shear for a few hundred kilometres from pretty much east of Townsville to east of Mackay. While the water temps were high enough the shear was shrugged off . The link shows very clearly the shear wrapping around the sth west and sth east quadrants. By the time he got to Fraser Island the water temps were too cold to sustain him and he was finally torn apart by shear.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/10/2010 16:28

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Mega
I don't know how many times it has to be said...but the STJ was actually weakening very quickly to the south of Hamish which is why he had a free run down the coastline without any hassles whatsoever. In the end it WAS higher windshear which ripped him apart near Fraser Island, wasn't it?


Go and have a plod through the 150+ pages of Hamish and in there you find a post containing a link that quite clearly shows Hamish cutting through high shear for a few hundred kilometres from pretty much east of Townsville to east of Mackay. While the water temps were high enough the shear was shrugged off . The link shows very clearly the shear wrapping around the sth west and sth east quadrants. By the time he got to Fraser Island the water temps were too cold to sustain him and he was finally torn apart by shear.


I was the person who posted that animated shear tendency link in the Hamish thread (which I couldn't be bothered digging up right now). My point was not to prove he was mowing through an 80knot STJ, but rather to prove how quickly the STJ was retreating southwards at the same rate Hamish moved SE. A couple of other people also mentioned this but I guess it's easier to believe that Hamish was just 'so big & powerful' that he could somehow withstand an 80knot STJ.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/10/2010 17:22

Actually it's on page 116 of the Hamish thread and was noted on another forum by a meteorological student who was advised by his seniors that the cyclone had control of the environment as it was heating up the upper atmosphere through outflow and forcing the STJ to retreat in doing so.

I was aware it was your post at the time (I replied to it). The image showed the STJ hitting the side of Hamish from the west ,wrapping around the underside ,heading up the eastern side before moving out on out into the pacific .All the while Hamish merrily cut his way through it and defied all predictions of maximum strength including BoM's and JTWC. BoM infact believed the STJ would force Hamish to cross the coast somewhere near Cairns as a cat2-3 system.

There was also a comment by NRTITN on around page 55 from memory that Hamish wouldn't make cat4 because of said shear which was later adjusted to suggest that Hamish had indeed altered the course of the STJ (pge 70 or there abouts).

Anyway, at the end of the day Hamish has been and gone and like so many TCs before him has confounded the experts. He won't be the last to do it. Hopefully we will see some systems do some amazing things (without the destruction) this summer too.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/10/2010 17:59

Yep as I stated, the interaction between larger systems and their steering environment is not yet fully understood and that's why they are still quite unpredictable. Hamish and Justin were two monsters that proved that to us all. Hamish withstood (and possibly altered VWS) shear, Justin withstood everything and anything. Did either create the weakening of their respective environmental stgeering influences? Who knows, we can't definitively explain it yet, all we can do is theorise and speculate.

All we know is what I mentioned a few pages back.
Weak systems and shallow systems = High confidence in future track
Moderate intensity systems = moderate confidence in forecast track
Intense or large systems = moderate/poor confidence in forecast track
Posted by: Mega

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/10/2010 18:06

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Actually it's on page 116 of the Hamish thread and was noted on another forum by a meteorological student who was advised by his seniors that the cyclone had control of the environment as it was heating up the upper atmosphere through outflow and forcing the STJ to retreat in doing so.


OK I've found the page which I posted it (116), but I wouldn't mind seeing the link to the last part of your post mentioned there, sounds very interesting indeed.

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I was aware it was your post at the time (I replied to it). The image showed the STJ hitting the side of Hamish from the west ,wrapping around the underside ,heading up the eastern side before moving out on out into the pacific .All the while Hamish merrily cut his way through it and defied all predictions of maximum strength including BoM's and JTWC. BoM infact believed the STJ would force Hamish to cross the coast somewhere near Cairns as a cat2-3 system.


I was under the impression it was the broad upper trough over central Australia which was the cause of the STJ retreating south, which would also help by creating an upper-outflow channel for the cyclone. Once the trough moved too far east, it ended up replacing that decreasing shear environment with increasing VWS which was the main cause of Hamish's demise. Even JTWC have mentioned this:
Quote:
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIR-
ONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SST > 28C AND DEEP
MOISTURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE CENTER WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND IMPROVED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN AUSTRALIA.
TC 18P HAS
STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 30 (PGTW) TO 45 KNOTS (ABRF). THE CURRENT INTENSITY
WAS BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT AND THE PGTW ESTIMATE BUT THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO 35-40 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AND SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARD UNDER THE POLEWARD-ORIENTED LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM.


Originally Posted By: ColdFront
There was also a comment by NRTITN on around page 55 from memory that Hamish wouldn't make cat4 because of said shear which was later adjusted to suggest that Hamish had indeed altered the course of the STJ (pge 70 or there abouts).


Very true, a lot of people thought he'd be ripped apart much sooner than expected...even the JTWC IIRC. I'm not arguing that at all. The only thing I'm arguing here is the ability of ANY cyclone to simply plough through such a large scale synoptic feature such as an 80knot STJ.

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Anyway, at the end of the day Hamish has been and gone and like so many TCs before him has confounded the experts. He won't be the last to do it. Hopefully we will see some systems do some amazing things (without the destruction) this summer too.


Yup very true...cyclones (particularly the big buggers) are a fascinating thing in that they're just so damn hard to forecast. Hopefully we see some good examples of this over the coming season (without the destruction of course).

Even nitso disagrees with me by the looks...ha! But I still stick to my opinion anyway.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/10/2010 18:26

Not necessarily disagreeing with anyone there Mega (too early in the season to start disagreeing), I just think the whole thing is too complex to say that either
(A) He plowed through 80 knots of wind shear = almost an impossibility
nor do I believe that;
(B) He managed to single handedly alter the entire STJ

I think there is an answer, but it's still many years of experimental research away. It's not the type of experiment that I'd imagine would be easy to conduct either.
Posted by: Wet Wet Wet

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/10/2010 18:32

When we say Hamish ploughed through 40kt shear, don’t forget shear is the difference of lower level winds in relation to upper level winds. So the upper level winds weren’t actually blowing at 40kts. To the south of Hamish, lower level winds were at least 30kts, and the upper level winds were (from memory) only 10kts from the opposite direction. So 30 + 10 = 40kts shear. Upper level winds of 10kts won’t blow the top off a cyclone like Hamish. It wasn’t until Hamish was down around near the Fraser Island region the upper levels became too great to sustain the cyclone (probably in the vicinity of 35+kts), which resulted in his decapitation.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/10/2010 19:34

Originally Posted By: Mega
I wouldn't mind seeing the link to the last part of your post mentioned there, sounds very interesting indeed.


.............
Quote:
But I still stick to my opinion anyway.



You'll have to go and google for the link but it's in there somewhere. It backed up post you made at the time which is why it is still fresh and I wouldn't be too concerned about what others think in here Mega. JDH is the only practicing meteorologist that I know to visit the forums and Retired Weather Man is the next best qualified imo. I tend to pay more attention when they speak. Everyone else is an enthusiast without official qualification or was rejected by BoM (or so I was told) and as such we are often wrong in our predictions. But then so are BoM wink

....and there's nothing wrong with sticking to your opinion.

The STJ is not under its own control either and is steered like any other feature. Hence why it is often or rather sometimes shaped like a slippery slide. Every thing on the planet is the consequence of a reaction. Indeed so is the planet itself. When Hamish forced his way poleward there were bound to be consequences when such a powerful system interacts with its surrounds. I'd like to submit that as the STJ is a constant in the way it travels around the globe then it is perhaps more prone to being influenced by external forces than may be believed. Deflection requires far less energy than obstruction.

I respect your input Mega and always have so we will have to agree to disagree and move on.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/10/2010 22:25

can we debate about hamish somewhere else please this is for this upcominjg Tc season not about hamish
Posted by: !SCHUMMY!

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/10/2010 22:32

so what are peoples thoughts on the first cyclone outlook for the Eastern Region on Monday?

my thoughts are that there will be some convection but nothing major with a low possibility of a cyclone
Posted by: Mega

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/10/2010 22:33

Originally Posted By: Squid
can we debate about hamish somewhere else please this is for this upcominjg Tc season not about hamish


So what are your thoughts of the upcoming season squid? Your post is just as pointless, adding nothing worthwhile. I'm sure the mods would have dealt with our posts accordingly if they felt they were inappropriate for this thread.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/10/2010 22:36

Originally Posted By: Squid
can we debate about hamish somewhere else please this is for this upcominjg Tc season not about hamish


thank you squid. i dont want to see another post in this thread unless its regarding the forthcoming season. good discussion, which i dont want to see posts removed, but anymore and i will. you want to debate the hamish issue, return to the hamish thread.
Posted by: Mega

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/10/2010 22:37

OK fair call...and sorry squid...feel free to remove my previous post there mods. smile
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/10/2010 22:37

Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Squid
can we debate about hamish somewhere else please this is for this upcominjg Tc season not about hamish


So what are your thoughts of the upcoming season squid? Your post is just as pointless, adding nothing worthwhile. I'm sure the mods would have dealt with our posts accordingly.


SD mega i was not attacking you and that is all i have to say regarding that

thoughts about this season i expect at least 1 TC to form each month in the cs form november to april and a few crossings
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/10/2010 22:43

i cant see a cyclone forming in november, uppers are still too intense imo, things can change quickly, but history shows its not a good month for our neck of the woods.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/10/2010 22:45

Originally Posted By: Stevo59
If the La Nina (and Walker Circulation) remains strong, I would not get too excited about too many severe TCs approaching the Qld coast this season. There is a much greater possibilty of weaker or moderate systems making landfall over central and SEQ, like 1974, but severe systems are more common in neutral and some El Nino years when the trades are weaker.


does the walker cirulation tend to send tcs to the central/Se QLd coast?
Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/10/2010 06:45

Latest long range ACCESSG and GFS charts are progging some interesting developments in the Coral Sea!! EC is not interested although its trying to get interested in its 168hr chart.

Squid, from my limited knowledge of the Walker Circulation, I think it sends the TCs out into the South Pacific Convergence Zone?
Posted by: JoshweatherNOW

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/10/2010 08:19

Can i please have a link to the GFS and ACCESSG sites i cant find them lol sorry
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/10/2010 14:54

Originally Posted By: Donweather
Latest long range ACCESSG and GFS charts are progging some interesting developments in the Coral Sea!! EC is not interested although its trying to get interested in its 168hr chart.

Squid, from my limited knowledge of the Walker Circulation, I think it sends the TCs out into the South Pacific Convergence Zone?


In a Lanina (strengthening of the walker circulation) it tends to push the TC's towards us . In an Elnino the entire convergence zone moves away from eastern Australia via westerly winds (hence drought more likely) and Fiji gets the lion's share. There are always seasons that throw a spanner in the works though.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/10/2010 16:45

This diagram shows a typical pattern at top with the classic Walker circulation and the bottom picture shows the break down and reversal of the walker circulation and shift in convection out over the central and eastern pacific in the bottom one. The odds are for a good (above average) TC season in the coral sea this summer if the nina stays in place.


Posted by: Jesse24

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/10/2010 21:17

So we will possibly be seeing less cyclones run off to our SE this year?
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/10/2010 00:16

Depends if the upper level conditions change or not.
Posted by: I_Luv_Cairns

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/10/2010 10:28

Official start to the cyclone season tomorrow. Love this site reading all the posts and learning from other people about the weather. I remember last year on the weekend sitting glued to the computer hitting the refresh button lol. Think we are in for a big one this year and with four kids think I better start stocking up now. I also work in Redden Street so anyone who knows Cairns will also advise me to buy a boat to get to work....
Posted by: FNQ Bunyip

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/10/2010 10:46

What is it with people thinking that they need too go too work when it floods/ storms or cyclones ... get a grip people your life and family are way more important than setting off as normal heading too work. Chuck a sicky / take a day without pay who cares , stay at home with your loved ones , stay off the roads , you might even live long too help clean up and get rid of the mess caused by all the lemming driving into flooded water , leaving their cars in low areas ect ect ...

Sorry off my soap box , Lorrae, its no personal , but it gets me watch the news seeing hundreds of idiots all trying to get somewhere they don't NEED to be in crazy weather...

Cheers
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/10/2010 10:46

Welcome to the forums Lorrae. I attend a depot in Redden St 4 nights a week and I'd imagine it wouldn't take much for it to flood. The bottom end of Aumuller went under two years ago.

Ted's right about the uppers and I suspect they may hang around. Historically in nina years the lows tend to be weaker but more frequent so something stops them spinning into strong systems and it isn't lack of ocean heat. THis year it will be interesting to see if that trend continues.
Posted by: storm freak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/10/2010 11:01

Fingers crossed that this next high coming through is the last above 1030 for a few weeks, would love to see patterns start to change. How did the uppers look this time last year?
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/10/2010 11:22

thats for the diagram and explanation cold front that ha shelp me alot to understand this walker ciculation and its influences on QLD TCs
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/10/2010 12:40

Uppers looked terrible all of last year except for pretty much that window of 2-3 weeks when ULUI came westwards.
Posted by: Chookie

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/10/2010 12:51

will we see any shower tonight? or storm?
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/10/2010 13:13

Looks like something starting to move in from the South.


Oop, this should be in the FNQ thread.
Posted by: Wet Wet Wet

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/10/2010 13:56

Originally Posted By: Stevo59
If the La Nina (and Walker Circulation) remains strong, I would not get too excited about too many severe TCs approaching the Qld coast this season.


Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Historically in nina years the lows tend to be weaker but more frequent.


I do to some extent agree with both of the above comments, although don’t get too comfortable because I think it’s worth pointing out some of the most significant Severe Tropical Cyclones to have impacted the East Coast have been during La Nina patterns:

• Category 4/5 Landfall near Mackay (1917)
• Category 5 Landfall at Innisfail (1918)
• Category 3 Landfall near Townsville (Agnes 1956)
• Category 4 Landfall near Townsville (Althea 1971)
• Category 3 Landfall near St Lawrence (David 1976)
• Category 3 Landfall near Home Hill (Aivu 1989)
• Category 3 Landfall near the Daintree (Rona 1999)
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/10/2010 14:44

Originally Posted By: Squid
Originally Posted By: Stevo59
If the La Nina (and Walker Circulation) remains strong, I would not get too excited about too many severe TCs approaching the Qld coast this season. There is a much greater possibilty of weaker or moderate systems making landfall over central and SEQ, like 1974, but severe systems are more common in neutral and some El Nino years when the trades are weaker.


does the walker cirulation tend to send tcs to the central/Se QLd coast?


Firstly with Stevo's post:

If I can correct you slightly in your post, the official BoM documents do suggest that we see both an increase in frequency in combination with an increase (although not quite as obvious) in intensity of cyclones in non-el-nino years. As a casual observer, I have found no evidence that suggests weaker systems tend to develop more frequently in La Nina years as opposed to el nino years.

Yes weaker systems are more frequent in La Nina years, but, as are stronger systems. It's not a case of more frequency but less intensity. This is easiest seen in the BOM's RC chapter 5 on seasonal cyclone forecasting. Scroll down to table 5.2
http://www.cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/pubs/tcguide/ch5/ch5_2.htm

Now onto wind shear in and around the Coral Sea. There is actually very little evidence of a substantial decrease of wind shear in La Nina years. Yes I had to look far and wide as well when I first read this. BOMRC suggests that the relationship between increase wind shear and el nino is mostly a factor in the USA, and actually not a major factor in the East Australian region. Yes we know that La Nina = weaker and more southward displaced jet stream but a La Nina and enhanced Walker circulation also = Stronger than normal low level easterly trade winds. The net result of this = very minimal change to vertical wind shear throughout the Coral Sea. Upper wind direction changes vary and upper wind velocities decrease only slightly over La Nina periods.

An enhancement of the Walker Circulation will tend to allow cyclones to enter more southern areas of the TCWC AOR. However, this by no way means that the north will see less activity or is under less threat. It just means that CQ and SEQ/NNSW will see an elevated risk this season. If I learn how to post an image properly, I'll show you why SEQ comes under more threat.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/10/2010 15:02

Originally Posted By: nitso


As a casual observer, I have found no evidence that suggests weaker systems tend to develop more frequently in La Nina years as opposed to el nino years.



Sorry that should have read:
As a casual observer, I have found no evidence that suggests weaker systems tend to develop more frequently in La Nina years at the expense of the development of stronger systems. (I think I jumbled a couple of sentences up there).
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/10/2010 16:59

Ok Here is my attempt to depict for you the changes to the 200HPA wind speed and direction. Please bear with me, my graphical manipulation skills are very basic.

The first is an El Nino 200mb analysis. The mean diagram on the left is the average circulation that is seen in El Nino years. The Departure diagram on the right being the difference between an average year to an el nino year.

I have annotated the diagram to better illustrate what I am saying.



Points to note:

DIAGRAM ONE ON THE LEFT
(1) The big arrow shows what the winds at 200HPA level are doing in an average El NINO year in the Coral Sea. Notice the general west to east flow? That keeps all major systems either sheared (if they get into the blue shaded bit) or off the coast and moving towards Fiji.

(2) Notice the upper anticyclone in the NT/Nth WA, on its poleward side, upper westerlies are enhanced = increase in intensity of the jet stream and it moves further northwards.

DIAGRAM TWO ON THE RIGHT
(1)Notice the streamline just west of the QLD coast, it runs parrallel to the coastline and eventually ducks out to the East. This shows that compared to a 'normal year' the upper winds of an el-nino year have more of a south easterly component.

(2) Interesting also is an upper trough is displaced east of NZ and its tentacles reach right up into Fiji and the far eastern Coral Sea. This further enhances the parallel upper winds we already have and they tend more ESE instead of SSE over the Coral Sea. Not only that, but at the northern and western periphery of that upper trough we see an increase in upper winds - guess where that is - yep u guessed it, smack bang in the middle of the Coral Sea.

(3) See the anomalous broad cyclonic upper circulation over Western Australia. This helps to assist the eastward motion of the uppers.

So in an el nino year we have a whole bunch of things going wrong in the upper levels that result in very little chance of anything approaching the coastline. However as with all things there are exceptions.

Remember I haven't even touched on the surface issues we see - I'm just talking about the uppers. Obviously we have surface issues such as lower sea surface temps, lack of rotation/vorticity due to weak monsoonal and trade flow. lack of convergence at surface, higher MSLP's in general etc etc. There's a whole stack of reasons why we don't get hit by cyclones in el nino yrs. Yet despite all of them, nature still makes us all look like fools sometimes whether we're amateur weather watchers (like myself) or pro meteorologists.

Now the fun one is next - La nina smile smile Stay tuned . . .
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/10/2010 17:56

Ok Here we go La Nina.

In a nutshell, La Nina is characterised by lighter upper winds and winds that tend to flow more towards the coast (east to west) in the tropics. Note that they will still eventually move from the NW - SE, but that generally happens furthewr southwards than el-nino years. That's why CQ and SEQ have an increased risk of being affected by a TC.

Remember, from what I've read there appears to be no clear obvious relationship between wind shear and el-nino/la nina. This is because:
In an el nino year we have a decrease in low level easterlies but an increase in upper NW/W
In La Nina we have an increase in low level easterlies and a decrease in upper level westerlies.

Now to the diagram examples again courtesy of the NWS CPC. This is the La Nina of 1989.


DIAGRAM ON LEFT

(1)The first thing to note is that the jet stream still does exist. It is much weaker and has been displaced south of 20 degrees south

(2) The Coral Sea and in fact most of Northern Australia has a divergent anticyclonic upper atmosphere. This allows for enhanced convection and also allows any major systems to develop an exhaust - especially on their poleward quadrants.

(3) Most of the Coral Sea experiences a weak and reasonably varied upper flow, but in general the upper flow is east to west above about 15 south and then varies and then turns NW to SE below about 22 South. However the process is gradual and gentle, unblike in an el-nino year where the system was immediately pushed to the SE by quite strong upper winds. Remember while you're still seeing the streamlines pushing to the SE, there is very little actual velocity to them until you get south of the upper anticyclone (until you get to the Southern Coral Sea)

DIAGRAM ON RIGHT
(1) The biggest thing to note on this diagram is the fact that an Upper trough from the el-nino diagrams (in my previous post) has been replaced by an upper ridge in this one. This creates an east-west steering flow. As the ridge pushes south of a Coral Sea cyclone, it will enhance the already slight westwards push. The presence of an upper ridge in the Southern Coral Sea also creates an environment of weaker upper winds and defies the natural east-west progression of the jet stream. This happens far more frequently in La Nina years. If an upper ridge is present along with a surface ridge, you get a TC Larry situation (enhanced development, unabated movement to the west).

So while a shift to a La Nina doesn't guarantee coastal crossings, it does allow the uppers to become more favourable for movement towards the coast, and it also means that those uppers will be more favourable more often. Yes there will still be times where we're going to have a dreaded upper trough over QLD while a TC is developing, but those times should be fewer and further between. If nothing else, the weaker upper steering flow of a La Nina will at least give us all something to argue about this season in terms of storm direction.

Please noite that once again, I haven't gone into the surface positives of a La Nina e.g. enhanced convergence = enhanced vorticity, higher sst's, lower MSLP etc etc.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/10/2010 18:14

Cheers for that nitso. Very informative for those of us with limited knowledge of how these things work. Now I will have a better idea of what I am looking at.
Posted by: cyclone man

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/10/2010 19:34

well i live in mackay and by the sounds of it i should make sure me and family are ready with all this talk that CQ is more of a threat from cyclones. ohh and thanks nisto for the infomation.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/10/2010 19:44

thank you so much for all the information nitso wow learnt so much just by thoese 2 posts and the diagrams laugh
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/10/2010 21:01

awesome little write up Nitso. Bring on the surface comparisons smile
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/10/2010 21:49

I just cannot get excited at the moment about this season. It doesnt really matter if its la nina or el nino, we cant have cyclones this year unless upper conditions are favourable. For instance this week ahead - We have a massive upper trough that will cover nearly all of central and eastern Australia and this is going to form a east coast low of the coast of northern or central Queensland....Since when has this happened in November? I have no idea, as i have only been watching the weather for a few years. The season looks like its going to be awesome, but im not getting excited until we see the upper conditions relax a little bit.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/11/2010 00:37

It is interesting to see the two comparisons between Bom 10 day and GFS. Bom has this low sitting more central in the CS where GFS has it doing the drift away to NZ. Comparing that to what Nitso explained about the uppers, it would seem BoM's model is more LA-Nina aligned compared with GFS which seems to be more EL-Nino. Is the GFS model more tuned to the Indian ocean La-Nina?? Re: them being more "bang on" with th TC they predicted!
Posted by: drivenunder

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/11/2010 11:47

Originally Posted By: FNQ Bunyip
What is it with people thinking that they need too go too work when it floods/ storms or cyclones ... get a grip people your life and family are way more important than setting off as normal heading too work. Chuck a sicky / take a day without pay who cares , stay at home with your loved ones , stay off the roads , you might even live long too help clean up and get rid of the mess caused by all the lemming driving into flooded water , leaving their cars in low areas ect ect ...

... me watch the news seeing hundreds of idiots all trying to get somewhere they don't NEED to be in crazy weather...

Cheers


FNQ Bunyip,

I totally agree with you, however I work in human services, so I work with clients in a residential centre in Cairns. If I am rostered on during a cyclone - it is my duty (duty of care) to go into work and help pull the strings and keep my clients safe! This is the only exception - all other jobs (pub jobs, computer jobs, ect) I say pull a sicky and stay with loved ones! In my work, we all feel its 'pot-luck' on who has to work during a cyclone or flooding event. I will have management and other staff members with me for support...

Sorry for the late reply - I have been busy and I been reading and catching up!
Posted by: Pacman

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/11/2010 11:59

Originally Posted By: Travvv doggy dog
I just cannot get excited at the moment about this season. It doesnt really matter if its la nina or el nino, we cant have cyclones this year unless upper conditions are favourable. For instance this week ahead - We have a massive upper trough that will cover nearly all of central and eastern Australia and this is going to form a east coast low of the coast of northern or central Queensland....Since when has this happened in November? I have no idea, as i have only been watching the weather for a few years. The season looks like its going to be awesome, but im not getting excited until we see the upper conditions relax a little bit.


I agree Ted, I'm staying in the moment here and will wait and see the outcome of this nina if any.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/11/2010 15:38

The first tropical cyclone 3 day outlook for the 2010/2011 cyclone season grin


Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:37pm EST on Monday the 1st of November 2010 and valid until end of
Thursday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
There are no significant tropical lows expected in the Coral Sea.

Likelihood of another tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday: Very low
Wednesday:Very low
Thursday: Very low

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day:
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/11/2010 15:59

Jeez. That one is full of surprises
Posted by: storm freak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/11/2010 19:25

I don't know to much about the uppers yet but in an attempt to educate myself I have been watching them quite closely for a few weeks. There was a period where the jet pushed a fair bit south, only to be pushed north again by an upper anticyclone over Darwin(this is what appeared to happen, not sure if it was the actual cause.) The main models I use to view the uppers are BSCH-GFS and Access, I just find them easiest. It is worth noting that despite the huge upper trough that is being forecast to form, on the last few frames of Access there is what appears to be very light, anticyclonic upper winds forming over New Gunea something that I havn't seen at all since I started observing the uppers. I believe that after this next MASSIVE upper trough pushes through we will see a large decrease in the strength of the upper winds over the coral sea and conditions will become progessivelty favourable from now on, I can partly justify my thoughts based on the reduction in strength surface Highs. I realise there is quite a large High moving through this week but while viewing the last few access runs it has become apparent that we are entering a period (not sure how long) of less frequent and weaker high pressure systems. Hopefully the uppers respond to this change in surface pattern quickly. Anyone else noted these changes?
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/11/2010 19:33

I started my automatic sat loop image downloader last night at 12am, I intend to leave it running for the whole cyclone season. It downloads the latest image every hour (As long as I keep my computer on). Will be interesting to compile a video of it next April.

Its getting images from http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/11/2010 20:29

Hey things What program is that? i wouldn't mind getting a hold of it grin
Posted by: KevD

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/11/2010 20:47

Would love to see an animation of those sat images after the season finishes smile

Here's an interesting link I discovered:

http://www.meteo.nc/espro/previcycl/cyclA.php?type=gen#1

Shows the statistical probability of cyclone development around Aus over the next few weeks. Put together in collaboration with the BoM.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/11/2010 20:58

What the next few Tropical Cyclone name are we up too now in Queensland can some one list a few 1st ones that would be nice thanks??

I mean they are going to name 1st that would be more them great as well I just had a few people ask me today.
Posted by: !SCHUMMY!

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/11/2010 21:02

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/cyclone-names.shtml

the next cyclone to form is aus waters will be tasha
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/11/2010 21:04

Thanks for that link that was very helpfully. smile

The BoM having update that link let for the 2010/2011 cyclone season let hopefully some one would of let them know. grin wink

I might just as well keep cool.
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/11/2010 21:33

Originally Posted By: dawoodman
Hey things What program is that? i wouldn't mind getting a hold of it grin


I wrote it myself. I'll upload it for you a little later if you want. just a few little bugs I need to work out of it first before releasing it.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/11/2010 21:54

Originally Posted By: Black Nor'easter
Would love to see an animation of those sat images after the season finishes smile

Here's an interesting link I discovered:

http://www.meteo.nc/espro/previcycl/cyclA.php?type=gen#1

Shows the statistical probability of cyclone development around Aus over the next few weeks. Put together in collaboration with the BoM.


Sensational link Black Nor-Easter -

MODS CAN WE PLEASE STICK THAT LINK IN THE TROPICAL WEATHER LINKS THREAD??
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/11/2010 22:12

that is an awesome link black NEr thanks heaps
Posted by: KevD

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/11/2010 22:15

Glad you liked it Nitso, Squid - was chuffed to dig it out on a random BoM page the other week...Only active from today so wanted to check it out before posting. Still looks to be fairly experimental but like the methodology behind it and feel it adds another weapon to our already pretty decent online arsenal.

Added it to the Trop links thread (which anyone else is also welcome to do if you find a good link)
Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/11/2010 22:42

This may be a really really stupid question, but with respect to that link that BN posted, what is the difference in the charts with respect to "Occurence" and "Genesis"?
Posted by: KevD

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/11/2010 22:54

It's in the explanatory text - one is the chance of a cyclone FORMING in a certain region (genesis) and the other is the chance of a cyclone OCCURING in a certain region (by which they mean a cyclone that potentially formed out of that area and has moved into that area).

Hope that helps smile
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/11/2010 23:41

The next cyclone name for 2009/2010 is Laurence not Tasha according to the link suppied the Highlighted name is the next one off the rank..
Posted by: !SCHUMMY!

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/11/2010 23:43

Originally Posted By: Sir BoabTree
The next cyclone name for 2009/2010 is Laurence not Tasha according to the link suppied the Highlighted name is the next one off the rank..


the one thats highlight was the first cyclone of the "09-10 season", they havent updated the table for a while yet, but tasha will be the next one in the "10-11 season", it confused me when i first saw it haha
Posted by: Wet Wet Wet

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/11/2010 03:02

Originally Posted By: !SCHUMMY!
Originally Posted By: Sir BoabTree
The next cyclone name for 2009/2010 is Laurence not Tasha according to the link suppied the Highlighted name is the next one off the rank..


the one thats highlight was the first cyclone of the "09-10 season", they havent updated the table for a while yet, but tasha will be the next one in the "10-11 season", it confused me when i first saw it haha


Try this link CLICK HERE. It was updated a couple of months ago.
Posted by: Sandfly

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/11/2010 20:10

According to one FM Radio Station in my part of the world there is a, quote "Mini-Cyclone" forming off the Capricorn Coast over the next 2 days.
Posted by: !SCHUMMY!

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/11/2010 20:14

Originally Posted By: Sandfly
According to one FM Radio Station in my part of the world there is a, quote "Mini-Cyclone" forming off the Capricorn Coast over the next 2 days.


whats with the word "mini" and the media these days lol, all because a possible ECL could from they call it a "mini-cyclone", it really annoys me sometimes....well all the time. not having a go at you sandfly, just the media.

but the models are still iffy as to where it will form if at all....
Posted by: cyclonecece

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/11/2010 21:02

This is what WZ says ... Heavy rain on the way for Queensland's east
Sam Terry, Tuesday November 2, 2010 - 18:45 EDT
Even though almost all of Queensland has met its yearly rainfall average already, yet another widespread and heavy rainfall event is forecast for the end of this week, likely to bring flooding to parts
of the east.

Models are picking some sort of disturbance to develop in the northern and central Coral Sea during Thursday. There is potential for a low to form, but at this stage it is unlikely to become a tropical cyclone.

The system should head south and deliver in excess of 50 millimetres of rain to the Central Coast, Capricornia, Wide Bay and Southeast Coast areas by the weekend.

There is almost certainly going to be areas awash with more than 100 millimetres, and coastal locations aren't the only chance. Tomorrow will see heavy falls generated over the Northern Goldfields, spreading east.

Winds will also be a factor, even without the low becoming a cyclone. Gusts could reach 90 km/h late on Thursday or during Friday morning, with anywhere south of Gladstone most at risk. Winds this strong can rip branches of trees and cause structural damage to houses.

Showers and winds are expected to ease up by Saturday afternoon, although indoor activities may still be the best plan.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2010
Posted by: Sandfly

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/11/2010 21:05

I can see how a radio station might be mislead to consider that as a "Mini-Cyclone". But I will get cranky if they start calling it "Mini-Clycone Tasha".
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/11/2010 21:09

it wont be a TC to early in the season this system will be induced by an upper tough to it should be a cold cored system Tcs are warm cored systems
Posted by: Sandfly

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/11/2010 21:31

Originally Posted By: Squid
it wont be a TC to early in the season this system will be induced by an upper tough to it should be a cold cored system Tcs are warm cored systems


So a cold cored system is a Mini-Cyclone?
Just joking - I think most people that have read more than a few pages on here would quickly understand that. Just poking fun at main-stream media for grabing cheap and effective public attention by adding words like "Cyclone" into a regular weather update, the word "Mini" just lets then get away with it.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 03/11/2010 17:05

Definitly looks as though the SOI in on the way down. Correct me if am wrong but that should be a positive sign for cyclone formation shouldn't it?.
Posted by: !SCHUMMY!

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 03/11/2010 18:14

well the 30-day avg is slowly dropping but the 90-day avg is still hovering around +21/+22 for the past month, maybe slowly increasing, so once the 90-day avg starts droppings fast then la nina is starting to weaken....correct me if im wrong

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 03/11/2010 18:38

Originally Posted By: !SCHUMMY!
well the 30-day avg is slowly dropping but the 90-day avg is still hovering around +21/+22 for the past month, maybe slowly increasing, so once the 90-day avg starts droppings fast then la nina is starting to weaken....correct me if im wrong

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/


Agreed there but I am thinking that while we will still remain firmly in a strong La-nina period the dropping soi should result in lessening trade winds which combined with the above average water temps in the coral sea(which will take far longer to drop)should provide more suitable conditions for cyclones to spin up.Again I am no expert so correct me if I am wrong.
Posted by: storm freak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 03/11/2010 19:13

I posted this a few pages back, not sure if anyone saw my post or took any notice but things are starting to look a bit better for the CS. If you check out access and BSCH-GFS tuesday/ wednesday next week. At the 500mb level there are very light winds over the cs and GFS is forecasting an anticylone at this level over NW CS. Am i wrong in saying things are starting to look better? anyone else have any idea on what is going on out there?
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 03/11/2010 19:22

Should be all set up and ready by Mid Feb storm freak. Nahh only kidding you. If this La NINA Big Cyclone season is all its cracked up to be the tropics will start firing across the board soon.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 03/11/2010 20:01

Hopefully this clip may help.

The abc News said we will get our 1st Tropical Cyclone before Christmas they said on here.

Posted by: Wet Wet Wet

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 03/11/2010 20:10

Originally Posted By: !SCHUMMY!
well the 30-day avg is slowly dropping but the 90-day avg is still hovering around +21/+22 for the past month, maybe slowly increasing, so once the 90-day avg starts droppings fast then la nina is starting to weaken....correct me if im wrong

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/


The 90 day SOI is always the slowest to move, and has to play “catch-up” with the 30 day SOI. It would be expected that the 90 day SOI changed very little during the past month as the monthly figure of 20.5+ for June was replaced by the marginally less figure of about 18.8+ for October. So a decline of 1.7 spread over 3 months will hardly put a dent in the 90 day figure.

If the monthly SOI for November took a dive and came in at 10+, at the end of the month the 90 day SOI would still be near 18+. If the 90 day SOI were to take a series nose dive and by the end of the month was only 10+, the monthly SOI for November would need to be -13.8 – which ain’t gunna happen.

The way things are shaping up at the moment, I’d take a guess that the monthly SOI for November will be in the vicinity of 15+. If that were to happen, by the end of the month the 90 day SOI would be around 19.5+.
Posted by: !SCHUMMY!

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/11/2010 12:55

this is the new CMC model on WZ, it has picked up something for the coral sea in 5 days time, something to keep and eye on but none of the other models have picked this up. if it comes off we know the model is good lol



what are everyones thoughts on this? maybe a november cyclone??
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/11/2010 13:37

even BoM have picked something up now
Posted by: shama

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/11/2010 14:09

is the CMC/WZ one showing it form just of the SEQ coast....? Although BOM is showing it a lot higher up!

Wow, a cyclone in November would be awesome
Posted by: Sandfly

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/11/2010 14:17

More likely to be a hybrid system at best if it gets up.
Posted by: !SCHUMMY!

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/11/2010 14:18

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=cmc

the CMC has it forming off central QLD, will be interesting, once EC has picked it up i think itll be on
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/11/2010 14:29

It's great to see the models even considering systems this early in the season grin
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/11/2010 14:50

Yeah I am with you there let see what happen I am going with you there. wink
Posted by: rainman1984

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/11/2010 17:48

If a tropical cyclone managed to cross the coast up stream from Somerset dam, how much can it handle? Can anyone help me with this info? Or is the spill way designed for huge quantities?
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/11/2010 19:50

wont be a tc would be a hybrid (spelling) system
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/11/2010 23:54

Originally Posted By: rainman1984
If a tropical cyclone managed to cross the coast up stream from Somerset dam, how much can it handle? Can anyone help me with this info? Or is the spill way designed for huge quantities?

From what i remember of our engineering fieldtrips to the dams back in NZ, they still have the bypass channels/tunnels from construction available to use if they need to dump a lot of water. Not sure if this applies to Somerset though. The spillway is only inhibited by the turbulence it creates downstream. Hope that sort of helps...
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/11/2010 15:39

It's looks like there is some things developing an nice blob sitting in the Queensland coral sea what the chance of that one developing into a Tropical Cyclone over the next few more days??

Just want to know if that is showing some bit of interest in there or not?

Just waiting for an update would be nice thanks.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/11/2010 17:43

just checked this site http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/
All conditions are looking favorable especially between
155 to 165E & 10 to 20S. 158E 15S looks very interesting to me. All thats missing is a surface trough. Theres a pretty strong upper high over the top, lots of vorticity, good SST'S, shear under 30Knts and getting weaker.

Divergence and convergence zones dont overlap though, but that can change pretty quick. Theres strong NWly uppers running down the western CS also which is bad:(
Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/11/2010 21:15

Most models are progging some convective activity out in the Tropical South Pacific in about 7-9 days time, with the latest 00z EC run showing something even slightly better!!!

ECMWF 216hr
Posted by: I_Luv_Cairns

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/11/2010 21:48

Hey I am a newbie and all...with not a heap of weather knowledge but is that some action I am starting see in the coral sea????
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/11/2010 22:11

Yes, some action, however nothing close to a cyclone just yet. Seems to be a bit of rain involved though.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/11/2010 22:11

Originally Posted By: Donweather
Most models are progging some convective activity out in the Tropical South Pacific in about 7-9 days time, with the latest 00z EC run showing something even slightly better!!!

ECMWF 216hr


Yeah the outlook continues to look good for SEQ surf:) That one on EC moves quite a long way westwards too.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/11/2010 22:16

Originally Posted By: Lorrae.P
Hey I am a newbie and all...with not a heap of weather knowledge but is that some action I am starting see in the coral sea????


the rain blob i thought might fire up looks to have been pulled apart but, there is another interesting looking blob at about 152E 13S moves east into the area I was previously looking at and has survived being torn apart.

Most of the cloud you see is just a lot of high cloud caught up in the motoring jet-stream winds.
Posted by: !SCHUMMY!

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/11/2010 22:19

well SHEAR is starting to drop so conditions are becoming a bit more favourable out there for something hopefully this month
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/11/2010 22:25

slight possibility, wait for something to start to build up, at the moment it still looks like rain clouds getting blown away.

keep an eye on that area though
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/11/2010 09:16

I will say now that there is a nice blob of cloud building up near the cape but everything seems to be going east.
I will be watching it as it travels into the sweet spot you guys mentioned earlier.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/11/2010 09:50

Looks like the BOM are still persisting with some sort of disturbance in the coral sea.


Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/11/2010 10:45

Originally Posted By: dawoodman
I will say now that there is a nice blob of cloud building up near the cape but everything seems to be going east.
I will be watching it as it travels into the sweet spot you guys mentioned earlier.


Hey Dawoodman.

I like that blob east of the Cape as well, but unfortunately it's related to a strong upper trough and quite northward jet stream. So no real chance of a cyclone out of it unfortunately.

ACCESS G has been liking a disturbance over the Solomons for a while now, but looking at their upper winds progs, if anything were to develop, it would be pushed slowly east or south east along some light to moderate Westerly 500HPA winds. In fact even though models can't agree on whether or not anything will develop they do agree that the upper winds will push any 'potential' system towards the east or south east. Jet stream is still too strong and a long way too far north to allow any development to occur or at least allow any development to push westwards.

We might just sit back and enjoy the storms created by the upper trough over western QLD this week, let's take another look late next week, hopefully things might start becoming more 'Summery' next week.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/11/2010 10:56

The Jet does seem to be moving south out in the pacific. Heres hoping it follows over the rest of the country
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/11/2010 15:12

it seems most models are hinting at a westard movement come +216Hrs:)
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/11/2010 16:21

That's a long way out Poncho and the models change every day. If it was within the 7 day run I'd start to get interested.
Posted by: JoshweatherNOW

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/11/2010 17:37

I cant see this 'disturbance'...any links that are good to use for this season??
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/11/2010 17:55

Have a look in the Topical Weather Links thread Josh. smile
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/11/2010 18:44

I actually think that the upper high pressure system is sitting a lot further East than what the models are saying. Its more at 170E Than 160E.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/11/2010 18:48

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
That's a long way out Poncho and the models change every day. If it was within the 7 day run I'd start to get interested.

Lol yeah I know, a bit hard to keep the excitment down with all the hype about the season so far.
I guess I was just meaning the westward movement in terms of the general flow for that region.
Posted by: JoshweatherNOW

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/11/2010 19:11

Thanks raindamit !! smile
Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/11/2010 08:11

Models are aligning quite well at the moment for some tropical activity out near New Caledonia in a week or so's time.
Posted by: MikeM

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/11/2010 11:45

I don't think anything will happen in the coral sea at least until late december. This latest disturbance excitement due to i think, everyones excitement of the upcomming season. A bit of cloud dosen't make a disturbance. My thoughts.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/11/2010 14:31

Originally Posted By: MikeM
I don't think anything will happen in the coral sea at least until late december. This latest disturbance excitement due to i think, everyones excitement of the upcomming season. A bit of cloud dosen't make a disturbance. My thoughts.

it wasnt just the cloud but the fact that the other conditions where the cloud was, was becoming more favourable for that cloud mass to potentially turn into something.

Pretty boring really if you just look at model predictions all the time. I like to look at the current and near future ob's as well, not just long term.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/11/2010 17:23

I am tipping we might see a 1st possible Tropical Cyclone developing coming from Solomons sea into the the Queensland coral sea with in the next few more week I say around the 11st November 2010 or the 15th of November 2010.

We will surely see what happen.

It's look like there is some things developing hear the Solomons sea.

It's could be a little bit of interest to us you even know.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

That where I will be keeping a watch on over around that area.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/11/2010 20:01

Lets just sit back and look at things realisticly and not post in here for another month.
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/11/2010 20:23

exactly, what i reakon now. since have a look at the sat loops.

EVERYTHING is getting blown out to the SE/E it will all come in time grin
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/11/2010 20:31

this upper trough and jet needs to get out of the way before anything can come near the coast
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/11/2010 20:35

It is going to be replaced by another upper trough and another after that. SO like i said, late next month lets see whats happening
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/11/2010 21:10

im not that worried whether one comes near the coast or not. Infact, i would prefer one to stay off the coast as im more concerned with swell rather than getting smashed by a CAT 5.

I thought this was the CS cyclone thread? not just a chasers or coast crossing thread.

Cyclone season has begun and I can post my opinions/obs here if I wish, thats the beauty of a forum. If your not interested, you don't have to answer. If you want to add to the topic and share your opinion, you can too. How else are you supposed to learn things if your not prepared to throw ideas/theory's around amongst each other?
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/11/2010 21:16

i dont think anyone was having a go at you mate i think he was just stating his opionion
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/11/2010 21:20

It would be nice if people would join in especially Trav as he is a good source of knowledge.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/11/2010 21:31

i think everyone is just meh atm with the lack of storm activity and all that in a months time it will be a different story thou
Posted by: Tan

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/11/2010 21:59

Yeah don't worry Poncho, it's just early days yet so everyone is just getting warmed-up. As Squid said, in a few months time there will be knowledgeable posters all over this thread wink
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/11/2010 22:12

no worries guys. Im still learning a lot, so everyone that adds to the topic is helping me. Whether its saying why or why not things are happening would be great. In hindsight, possibly should have been more encouraging than pisdorf. Sorry if I offended anyone.
Posted by: Stevo59

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/11/2010 22:21

The first weak tropical low may well develop between the Solomons and Vanuatu, but there is no way it will move west given the current and forecast horrific wind shear over the western Coral Sea:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...shr&zoom=&time=

Unless there is a rapid change over coming weeks, we will most likely see our first decent Coral Sea cyclone in January. The monsoon trough is still well north of the equator but the MJO is slowly strengthening....
Posted by: KevD

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/11/2010 22:27

Originally Posted By: Stevo59
The first weak tropical low may well develop between the Solomons and Vanuatu, but there is no way it will move west given the current and forecast horrific wind shear over the western Coral Sea:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...zoom=&time=

Unless there is a rapid change over coming weeks, we will most likely see our first decent Coral Sea cyclone in January. The monsoon trough is still well north of the equator but the MJO is slowly strengthening....

Ouch - that windshear is incredible...and no wonder there is a heap of moisture down in the SE of Aus...Going to take some time for that to change...and from what I have seen of the models its stuck in a rut for now. Great if you are where any action is, painful for the rest of us.
Posted by: storm freak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/11/2010 23:34

Has anyone else noticed how much the variability in what is forecast at the 200mb level next week. Access is forecasting a complete breakdown of the persitent upper trough over central Australia whereas GFS is forecasting it to intensify. What does everyone think is going to happen? oh, and a question for nitso(or anyone who can answer my question), How does the cross flow effect the uppers over the coral sea, like is it just for good outflow of what?
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/11/2010 03:00

Something starting to rotate out there smile
Posted by: Mr Harvey

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/11/2010 09:06

I don't see any rotation yet...at least nothing that is indicative of a deepening low pressure system. The only movement in the north seems to me to be anti-clockwise and that looks as though its interaction between the southerly frontal systems.

I think that we'll start to see some lows developing in the GOC around early December and in the Coral Sea by mid-December, but I would be surprised if there was cyclone activity before mid-December.

I'm tipping the first cyclone in Queensland to form in the GOC between the 15th and the 20th of December.
Posted by: MikeM

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/11/2010 13:11

I'm with you harvey. Maybe a bit later
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/11/2010 13:34

Tropical Storm Risk's newest forecast is out - they are expecting that Australian tropical storm activity will be 40% above normal. That's the highest chance above normal I have seen this site predict in 10 years...

Full article here.
Posted by: Mr Harvey

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/11/2010 16:50

I am interested in getting some climate data from previous La Nina events - does anybody here know where I would be able to access this sort of data? I would be keen to see synoptic charts, if possible, from these events?
Posted by: JoshweatherNOW

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/11/2010 18:35

Don't see any rotation infact it seems to be losing some of the cloud aswell??
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/11/2010 21:12

that is a very interesting link there RD we just need these upper troughs to stuff off and bang!
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/11/2010 21:24

rotation evident is due to an upper anticyclone not a surface LOW
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/11/2010 21:43

shear looks to be on the improve.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/11/2010 21:55

Its still terrible, the jet is pretty much all over Eastern Queensland. That belt of high shear should be around tasmania before i get excited. Most of the coral sea is still 30-40 knots anyway poncho. Wayyyyy to much mate. This winter pattern looks like its going to hang around for a while yet unfortunatly.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/11/2010 22:27

hey trav, do u have a link to a forecast shear model site i can use? Ta.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/11/2010 23:11

Here is another shear site i do use
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...shr&zoom=&time=

As for shear forcast sites i did have some however my computer crashed so im pretty much just saving links as i go and using actual weather models such as GFS and EC has more of a guide to upper trough activity over eastern Australia. So unfortunatly mate i cant help ya. I wish i could.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/11/2010 23:31

no worries, cheers for that.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/11/2010 00:46

Hey guys, if your interested i found this this shear forecast . its GFS so im not sure how reliable it is for this purpose.

Ooo Oooo and this one too. Its got nogaps & CMC (never heard of cmc?)
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/11/2010 16:48

Looks like there is a LOW developing near Vanuatu
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Vanuatu issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological Service, Port Vila at 06:00 am Thursday, 11 November 2010

A Tropical low is expected to develop to the north of the northern Vanuatu later today. Its potential to develop further in the next three days is low.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/11/2010 19:05

It looks like there is a few line of developing weak low starting to developing out there need a bit of watching. grin wink
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/11/2010 20:07

met fiji are picking up developing disturbance in western pacific.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/11/2010 20:50

Hmm, the Solomon Sea does have a pulse, albeit weak. Today's tropical cyclone outlook is the first this season to detect any signs of life out there. . . a number of models have this developing early next week and heading SE:

Quote:
Potential cyclones:
A very weak low over the Solomon Sea is expected to remain slow moving over the
next few days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Friday: Low
Saturday: Low
Sunday: Low


It's a notch up from 'very low'.
Posted by: JoshweatherNOW

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/11/2010 21:03

So if this forms into a cyclone will it be named by Fiji..?
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/11/2010 21:34

depends which AOR it is when it gets named
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/11/2010 21:38

where are we talking about? cords?
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/11/2010 22:59

every update has that flow of air going more and more east, guess anything this side of the country is out for a while.

I'll go back to watching SEA
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 12/11/2010 09:06

The Solomons low is Appearing on the BOM Charts.

Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 12/11/2010 13:38

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Vanuatu issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological Service, Port Vila at 06:00 am Friday, 12 November 2010

A Tropical Low is expected to develop to the northeast of the northern Vanuatu. Its potential to develop further in the next two to three days is low.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 13/11/2010 15:44

Has anyone else noticed how far south the jet stream has travelled south in the last couple of days?
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 14/11/2010 10:59

Tropical Cyclone Sunday is on Today in Townsville who went to it before??
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 14/11/2010 15:03

Just letting people know that was from 9am until 12pm today.
Posted by: james1977

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 14/11/2010 20:39

Forecast for Thursday
The upper level trough now develops into a cyclonic system and maintaining
rain areas and thunderstorms over the eastern half of the state while fine in
the west.
Posted by: Sammy Cyclone

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 14/11/2010 20:42

The words 'upper trough' and 'cyclonic system' should be clue enough that it has nothing to do with an actual cyclone.
Posted by: homehillrains

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 14/11/2010 20:54

i think the BOM meant that the upper trough would develop into an upper low
oh and SS have a look at QLD's extended outlook
Posted by: KevD

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 14/11/2010 20:59

Here is the forecast:

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/state.shtml

The word cyclone is correct but perhaps not skillful; this will NOT be a tropical cyclone.

A whole heap of one line chatter deleted from this page - please refrain from any further discussion about this upcoming event in the tropical forum...and when you do post please consider whether a series of one word posts is going to make for interesting or useful reading for anyone else.

Cheers

Kev
Posted by: Sandfly

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/11/2010 18:27

I have read a few posts mentioning an early start to the wet, and the possibility of a November Cyclone. So out of curiosity I looked back from 2007 to 1960 (records prior to 1960 get a little unreliable) and plotted 158 Coral Sea and relevant Solomon Sea cyclones by month of Cyclonegenisis in this basin. Below is the table of monthly distribution.



The 5 November Cyclones occurred in 1997, 1977, 1973, 1966, 1961
The strong La Nina’s of that period are 1998, 1988, 1975, 1973, 1956

So based on the above there is a weak link between strong La Nina’s and Nov TCs centred only on 1998/1997 and 1973. Not enough for me to believe we will see a Coral Sea TC this month.

The 5 Nov Cyclones are listed below for anyone interested. You will note that most of these early TCs form well north into the Solomon’s area, in much the same way as most late season (May) TCs develop here or in the PNG AOR. Hence one would asume this is the movement of the MT into our area and out again.

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/tropical_cyclones/1997_1998/bom/tropical_cyclone_nute.htm
http://www.australiasevereweather.com/tropical_cyclones/1977_1978/bom/tropical_cyclone_tom.htm
http://www.australiasevereweather.com/tropical_cyclones/1973_1974/bom/tropical_cyclone_natalie.htm
http://www.australiasevereweather.com/tropical_cyclones/1966_1967/bom/tropical_cyclone_angela.htm
http://www.australiasevereweather.com/tropical_cyclones/1961_1962/bom/tropical_cyclone_196101.htm
Posted by: Stevo59

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/11/2010 19:28

[quote=Sandfly]I have read a few posts mentioning an early start to the wet, and the possibility of a November Cyclone. So out of curiosity I looked back from 2007 to 1960 (records prior to 1960 get a little unreliable) and plotted 158 Coral Sea and relevant Solomon Sea cyclones by month of Cyclonegenisis in this basin. Below is the table of monthly distribution.


The 5 November Cyclones occurred in 1997, 1977, 1973, 1966, 1961
The strong La Nina’s of that period are 1998, 1988, 1975, 1973, 1956

So based on the above there is a weak link between strong La Nina’s and Nov TCs centred only on 1998/1997 and 1973. Not enough for me to believe we will see a Coral Sea TC this month.

REPLY to Sandfly:

Good work. Thanks for some sensible discussion for a change! I would extend your prognosis to December as well given the constant shear over the CS that will not die down until well into January 2011.
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/11/2010 20:44

Also worth noting there haven't been a massive number of december cyclones either and that a cyclone in May is more likely than one in December.
Posted by: Sandfly

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/11/2010 21:09

But having looked at all these TCs one by one, I did note that no November TC has ever crossed, nor come even near the Qld Coast. But when looking at December TCs some have made landfall. The notable one, which is that my parents talk about is TC Annie; 29th Dec 1962. They were camping at Cotton Trees camping area on the Maroochy River, and they got smashed. They got evacuated into the local picture theatre. My father tells me that his recollection was as the strongest winds hit, he could hear, over the sound of the howling wind the fishing boats in the river, off their moorings, just steering into the wind at full throttle just to stop getting blown backwards against the banks.
Posted by: Wet Wet Wet

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/11/2010 21:32

The closest approaching November Cyclone for Queensland (since records began) would have been ‘Guba’ in 2007. Although forming within PNG’s AOR, it did threaten the Qld Coast after forming in the middle of November.

Link 1
Link 2
Link 3

I wouldn't rule out a coastal crossing occuring as early as the first week of December this year. As we've seen a lot can change in a few days in the tropics, and this year is no exception.
Posted by: Sandfly

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/11/2010 21:55

Originally Posted By: Wet Wet Wet
The closest approaching November Cyclone for Queensland (since records began) would have been ‘Guba’ in 2007. Although forming within PNG’s AOR, it did threaten the Qld Coast after forming in the middle of November.

Link 1
Link 2
Link 3

I wouldn't rule out a coastal crossing occuring as early as the first week of December this year. As we've seen a lot can change in a few days in the tropics, and this year is no exception.


While it came near the Qld coast it was still very much away from any major populated areas.
As for a Dec crossing, I think it’s very possible, 16th-26th Dec with the next MJO
Posted by: Stevo59

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/11/2010 22:17

Originally Posted By: Wet Wet Wet
The closest approaching November Cyclone for Queensland (since records began) would have been ‘Guba’ in 2007. Although forming within PNG’s AOR, it did threaten the Qld Coast after forming in the middle of November.

Link 1
Link 2
Link 3

I wouldn't rule out a coastal crossing occuring as early as the first week of December this year. As we've seen a lot can change in a few days in the tropics, and this year is no exception.


Guba hardly counts as it formed in the Gulf of Papua, well north of the normal strong November wind shear over the western Coral Sea. However, Guba did produce some nice NE/SE convergence along the NTC with heavy rain in most areas to the north of Innisfail as I recall.
Posted by: Wet Wet Wet

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/11/2010 22:46

Originally Posted By: Stevo59
Guba hardly counts


Well I would have thought the Coral Sea’s most intense November Tropical Cyclone and Queensland’s closest approaching November Tropical Cyclone would have amounted to some form of significance.

As for a November crossing, there is no reason why it could never occur. Though I would imagine such an event would be accompanied with about a 200 year ARI.

Even with unfavourable conditions at present, we only need a small window of opportunity for the shear to break down and a Cyclone could be on your doorstep before you know it.
Posted by: Wet Wet Wet

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/11/2010 06:54

Latest EXT GFS has a Cyclone forming in the Coral Sea off the coast of Cairns on November 30th.
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/11/2010 07:31

Both the Accessg Model and GFS have an increased area of rainfall just of the coast as soon as sunday/monday.
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/11/2010 11:12

I see that too Steamy. Falls in excess of 500-600mm in a small area out in the central Coral Sea from 120 hours out (5 days).

We'll have to wait and see how well the rainfall forecast holds in the next day or so.
Posted by: Mr Harvey

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/11/2010 11:14

Doesn't that model show the predicted accumulated rainfall totals for the period over the next 120 hours? Still a lot, but I think that some people are interpreting the model in a way that suggests 500-600mm in a 24 hour period.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/11/2010 11:54

Still a Winter pattern so upper troughs hanging around over Qld will limit the potential for a system to move to the west ***IF*** it were to develop, however the upper troughs may also provide enhanced poleward outflow intensifying a potential system rapidly ***IF*** it were to develop.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/11/2010 12:25

certainly interesting to see gfs predict such a deep season early on, with rapid intensification, but its along way out in the future, as nitso said "IF"!!!
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/11/2010 18:10

What the chance of seeing a Tropical Cyclone developing from the 22nd of November to the 30th of November 2010 as we get at the end of November in the Queensland Coral sea??

Hopefully there got to be some things fire up before them.
Posted by: RyanSEQ

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/11/2010 19:38

the latest EC has hinted at a low developing at the end of thier run around the 22nd so will be interesting times ahead
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/11/2010 20:10

Yeah saw that one ryanHjs but I think it is for the 27th Nov. But definitely first sign from EC this season of something for QLD that is close enough to the mainland to watch with interest over the next week or so. Will probably switch and swap their forecasts over the next week until something comes into align that they stick with. Either that or the Low that EC have will disappear off their charts all together.
Posted by: RyanSEQ

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/11/2010 20:17

yeah the 27th would be correct lol too long at work today too many numbers lol but yes it will be interesting to see if the models start to align and howmany times that chop and change over the next 10 days or so
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 18/11/2010 07:47

Originally Posted By: Locke
I see that too Steamy. Falls in excess of 500-600mm in a small area out in the central Coral Sea from 120 hours out (5 days).

We'll have to wait and see how well the rainfall forecast holds in the next day or so.


It does but you can play around with the starting point to pinpoint when the rain is expected to fall. It showed very little rainfall in the first 120 hours then the bulk of the 600mm falling between the 120-168 hour timeframe.
Posted by: JoshweatherNOW

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 18/11/2010 08:38

So are we likely to see a low develope on the 27th or a cyclone??
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 18/11/2010 08:42

gfs backed off considerably, but still has a weak circulation moving off to the east.
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 18/11/2010 09:17

Any forecasts 5-7 days out have a significant degree of uncertainty I guess. The models seem to do better once a system is up and running rather than in forecasting their development IMHO.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 18/11/2010 09:26

once in the wet season proper, models seem to have a good reliability in predicting the "general" area where a low may form. but so far out, movement and intensity are very uncertain. just too many variables, and so many atmospheric conditions have to be just right.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/11/2010 07:33

Just musing really, but has anyone else noticed the juicy hybrid low that the latest EC has just tossed up? A very unpredictable time of year, so you just never know.
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/11/2010 10:27

I thought you Qlders would be all over this EC Low that Inclement weather has mentioned. Is everyone a sleep in here. I was expecting 200 posts at least over the last 24hrs. Not sure how accurate EC is for QLD but she's spot on over here in WA. I will be surprised if QLD gets to name the first season cyclone be it a small one.
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/11/2010 10:30

EC Chart for the records

Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/11/2010 13:13

+192 Hrs - A little too far in the future , for me to ge excited.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/11/2010 13:34

Likewise the current upper pattern needs to change if EC is to be believed.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/11/2010 15:38

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:37pm EST on Friday the 19th of November 2010 and valid until end of
Monday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
An area of low pressure may develop over the northern Coral Sea region during
Monday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday: Very low
Sunday: Very low
Monday: Low
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/11/2010 15:53

Originally Posted By: Steamy
+192 Hrs - A little too far in the future , for me to ge excited.

Thats what I thought when EC predicted cyclone Ului to hit the Whitsundays 240hrs out.

And if a Low was to develop off there, would it be considered more an ECL East Coast Low/Hybrid system rather than a tropical Low/cyclone and another thing is, if the pressure of an ECL drops down below 996hp and potenially lower does it classify as a cyclone?

I just remeber reading a few posts earlier in the season about ECL's forming very early in the season in previous La Nina years. Anyway will be interesting to watch EC models over the next few days. Next update for them is in over an hour.
Posted by: shama

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/11/2010 17:37

I apologise for my lack of ignorance in advance, but I thought that it is not necessarily low pressure that defines a cyclone, but rather has to have the rotation, and also winds at the centre above a certain level?
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/11/2010 17:44

No definitely looks to be a tropical LOW forecast out there Popeye. It looks to have the characteristics of a Trop LOW rather than a hybrid system on the other models (CMC, GFS,ACCESS) I can't really tell looking at EC's surface chart.

The BoM certainly thinks it'll be tropical. However with an Upper LOW over QLD there is only one place it'll go if it develops and that's Fiji. while it remains weak, it's likely to stick around in the Nth Coral Sea, if it develops some height and structure,and the upper pattern does what it's forecast to do, she'll be full steam ahead to the Fijian islands.

QLD state forecast this afternoon:

Forecast for Tuesday

The high over the Tasman Sea is expected to strengthen a little, maintaining fresh to locally strong SE winds and showers about the east coast. More widespread showers about the tropical coast. The upper trough and low is expected to move east over the southern and central Queensland interior, with generally isolated afternoon showers over most of the Queensland interior. The upper trough will also assist in deepening the trough over the northern Coral Sea, possibly with a weak tropical low developing. Isolated thunderstorms over western Cape York Peninsula. Daytime temperatures remaining below average over most of the state. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds, remaining strong along the central and Capricornia coasts.
Outlook for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday

The upper level trough and low is likely to remain slow moving over eastern Queensland while the trough and/or low pressure system over the northern Coral Sea is likely to persist. The high will remain slow moving over the Tasman Sea and continue to extend a firm ridge along the east Queensland coast with fresh to locally strong SE winds and showers. Isolated showers over the eastern interior. Isolated thunderstorms over western Cape York Peninsula.
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/11/2010 19:36

Originally Posted By: shama
I apologise for my lack of ignorance in advance, but I thought that it is not necessarily low pressure that defines a cyclone, but rather has to have the rotation, and also winds at the centre above a certain level?



No need to apologise.

You may be thinking of the general term cyclone

Cyclone
Large scale atmospheric circulations in which the winds rotate clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. Cyclones are areas of low atmospheric pressure and are often associated with strong winds, cloud and rainfall. Cyclone is a general term covering all cyclonic systems in the atmosphere and should not be confused with Tropical Cyclone. Interchangeable with low pressure system.

(thanks to the weatherzone glossary)
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/11/2010 22:45

Up to 500 images so far, and only 19 days into the season grin Theres going to be images missing at times, and some weird ones (From the satellite), but I can't possibly have 100% uptime, but it'll do smile

This is going to be a huge project to compile all these images.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/11/2010 00:11

Nitso. If the CS low tries to push SE against a high over upper NZ that has an axis tending NE to SW, will this cause intensification of both the high and low and stalling of both systems? (given shear is OK) EC seem to be forecasting a low to the east of NZ which should block the path of the high for a while.

Just looking for future large swell development for the SEQ.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/11/2010 08:15

Remember that the high is pushing SE winds through the lower levels, and the coral sea low will be in the mid levels.

Also an upper low is forcasted to move ENE - Due east over the next week, which will increase wind shear throughout the region, plus it will keep the steering winds South east for the next week. The upper low was already mentioned in the ext. outlook by the bureau, so at the moment there is no chance of the low stalling. Either way the low will probably form into a Cyclone, and will probably intensify very quickly as it gets pushed to the South east, as the upper low will provide enhanced outflow as it develops.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/11/2010 09:03

from the Vanuatu Met.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Vanuatu issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological Service, Port Vila at 06:30 am Saturday, 20 November 2010

A Tropical Low is expected over the eastern vicinity of the Vanuatu group on Monday next week, slow moving west. It has low possibility to develop further.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/11/2010 09:41

Originally Posted By: nitso
However with an Upper LOW over QLD there is only one place it'll go if it develops and that's Fiji.


I hesitate to question you on this Chris. You're a lot more erudite than me when it comes to TC development, but the above statement isn't necessarily so. I always thought it depends on the position and the amplification of the upper trough. Most Coral Sea TCs that shoot off to the SE are captured by either an amplifying low directly to its south or SE which creates that 'big dipper' effect in which it rides the steering flow down the 'slippery slope' to NZ and beyond. However, if it amplifies to its SW from Queensland the opposite occurs where it actually gets pulled back to the SW as EC depicted in its 12 UTC 500 hPa charts yesterday. Please correct me if I'm wrong on this. Nevertheless, I would appreciate your comments.

Edit: It just occurred to me that you referred to 'low' not 'trough'. If that is what you meant, please disregard the above assessment. smile
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/11/2010 10:56

Clem, I'm not sure I've understood your question. Basically the position and movement of this Upper LOW will result in moderate to fresh westerly winds on it's northern half. It's a completely different scenario to having an Upper LOW in Western QLD or Central Australia. If it were located that far west, you're right it may actually help result in a more southward movement and with a vector flow from surface to 700 pushing it west, it may have well moved the system SSW or SW. However this system will develop south south west of the tropical system and then push Eastwards - there is only one way the tropical system can possibly move and that's to the E - SE.

Take a look at the GFS scenario I've attached at +120hrs I've put in an example of the 500's, 300's and 850's. So with an Upper LOW positioned over SE QLD we will see:
(1) Upper Westerlies at 500 through all of the Coral Sea
(2) Upper westerlies at 300 through all of the Coral Sea
(3) Low Level easterlies through the Coral Sea = high wind shear.

Interestingly the Upper LOW blocks what could have become an interesting scenario from occuring with an Upper anticyclone to the south of it. had the upper LOW not formed, then I suspect EC's scenario becomes more plausible.

Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Originally Posted By: nitso
However with an Upper LOW over QLD there is only one place it'll go if it develops and that's Fiji.


I always thought it depends on the position and the amplification of the upper trough. Most Coral Sea TCs that shoot off to the SE are captured by either an amplifying low directly to its south or SE which creates that 'big dipper' effect in which it rides the steering flow down the 'slippery slope' to NZ and beyond. However, if it amplifies to its SW from Queensland the opposite occurs where it actually gets pulled back to the SW as EC depicted in its 12 UTC 500 hPa charts yesterday. Please correct me if I'm wrong on this. Nevertheless, I would appreciate your comments.


An Upper LOW/trough over Central Australia is ok and in fact it's quite desirable. However an Upper LOW near SE QLD which is what the models are predicting will result in an ESE movement and with a ridge in the low levels pushing up the coast, it should also result in unsustainable wind shear limiting its development in the medium to longer term.

850HPA winds show ridging over CS pushing any surface based system westwards



500 HPA winds show the effect of the Upper LOW over SE QLD on the rest of the CS winds at that level. Notice almost a straight west to east flow




300HPA winds continue to show a Winter pattern over the Coral Sea


Unfortunately I don't have access to EC's run other than WZ's surface and 850 run. I believe that they've backed off considerably though as the model has come to terms with the worsening cyclogenesis conditions out there. The BoM have also dropped any mention of it in their forecast.

By the way total wind shear around the system at that moment in time is around 40 - 50 knots and that is way too high for development of a TC.

As I say I'm not sure I've really understood what you're asking, and I do apologise if I'm completely off track with my response, but an Upper LOW over SE QLD is never a good thing.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/11/2010 12:48

Just letting people know here there is a Severe Weather Warning out for the Queensland area at the moment is that for that Tropical low the BoM are watching at the moment or not??

Just want a little more update that would be very great thanks I mean.

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.

There is a nice looking blob sitting out in the Queenalnd coral sea off the coast at the moment need a bit of watching.

Here a look at right here on this web sites.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/11/2010 13:09

Thanks Chris for your clarification, yes, you were referring to a low, not a trough, and so your analysis does make sense.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/11/2010 15:30

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Saturday the 20th of November 2010 and valid until end
of Tuesday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
An area of low pressure may develop over the northern Coral Sea region during
Monday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday: Very low
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Low

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day:
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/11/2010 15:44

The BoM have the weak Tropical low the BoM got it showing up on wednesday on the Forecast map for next 4 days and thay said very low on sunday of Likelihood of developing into a tropical cyclone on sunday.

They need to be a bit more update but what one to go by I mean.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
Posted by: Occo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/11/2010 16:12

Matthew- a cyclone WILL NOT develop in the Coral Sea in the next few days. Its plain simple of what the BOm have said in their forecasts. If BOM were so confident of something developing- they would have upgraded the likelihood to moderate or high.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/11/2010 17:00

Thanks for letting me know that was very hopefully. smile

Well a lots has change since this morning out off the Queensland coast now.

May well and see what happen with in the next 24 hours should be very interesting.
Posted by: MikeM

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/11/2010 17:42

Nothing will develop in the coral sea for the next week. Hardly even a cyclone.
Posted by: RadioBoi1980

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/11/2010 18:25

People always talk about the EC Models, and other charts/maps that show a prediction of cyclone. Where do I find one of these?
Posted by: JoshweatherNOW

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/11/2010 19:10

Tropical Links fourum
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/11/2010 22:07

Is this the low forming that BOM are talking about 173E 15S
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

Looks like mario right on the money this year

MARIO TORRISI MOTHER NATURE LONG RANGE FORECASTER

NOVEMBER
This month will see a lot of change. Some hot days, the atmosphere cool - Jet Stream. Cirrus cloud and dense moisture creates some storms with an indication of some good weather from the 1st to 10th . Storms from the 10th to 20th. For the rest of the month some fine days with a possible tropical disturbance in the Coral Sea.

DECEMBER
This month will see some tropical lows/cyclones from the Gulf to the Coral Sea pressure gradient is low in density. The weather will be hotter than normal with some heavy rain inland and flooding on the coast.This month could see two cyclones with the first being in the beginning of the month. The second will be around 20th - 31st which will be very dangerous for the east coast. Victoria and New South Wales will have very hot weather as the mercury could reach 45 degrees.
Posted by: ol mate

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/11/2010 22:18

Never ceases to amaze me how spot on this man is
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/11/2010 22:43

so this person is suggesting a dangous TC in the 2nd half of december for the east coast how creditable is this person and where is the link to this persons forcasts
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/11/2010 22:50

well come to think of it.....many of the cyclones that happen around Christmas tend to be the bad ones.


Althea was near christmas right?
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/11/2010 22:55

24 December, 1971. CYCLONE ALTHEA. $50 million damage (at 1971 value) caused to Townsville. 90% of houses damaged or destroyed on Magnetic Island. 3.66 metre storm surge recorded just north of the area. 3 deaths. Hundreds of homes damaged (including over 200 Housing Commission homes).
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/11/2010 22:57

For the last two years was given a copy of his forcasts from a person in Ingham, year before last spot on to the week with his thunderstorms and cyclones forcasts but last year was not as close but as he said any volcanic activity in the sea east of us will change the weather as it did last year.I for one would like to know how you can predict this far in advance with storms and cyclones to the week.

2011
A CHANGE IN THE PACIFIC COULD BRING A VOLCANIC ERUPTION

JANUARY
This month is unpredictable because of the cold jet stream.The tides will be higher than normal.Some nights will be cold before returning to usual with very hot days.
1st to 15th - Storms from time to time but mostly fine.
15th to 31st Tropical low in the Coral Sea and Gulf producing a lot of rain to a wide area in Queensland which could develop into a cyclone. The South will be very hot with the mercury up to 45 degrees.

FEBRUARY
A lot of humidity will bring very hot weather for the north. The seas will be very hot because of the EL Nina effort flowing into the Coral Sea. Water evaporation will produce a lot of rain which could result in a big flood. The king tide will be higher than normal at the time of the full moon. A tropical low will turn into a cyclone between the 10th and the end of the month.

MARCH
There is a good chance of a sea storm due to a lot of turbulence in the sea from the 1st to the 15th. It is advisable for boats to stay inshore or listen to the weather reports. Around the 15th there could be some heavy rain due to a disturbance in the Coral Sea. From the 15th -31st there will be some fine weather however some storm activity will persist.
Posted by: JoshweatherNOW

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/11/2010 23:56

This bloke is quite amazing!!!
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/11/2010 00:29

whats EL Nina?? is that a hybrid state?

Seriously though, wouldnt it just be dangerous due to the timing i.e. christmas / new years with lots of people travelling?
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/11/2010 00:55

It could be due to many things. Probably just luck, although maybe there is lower shear during December, so if a system does happen to form, it can intensify much easier? I dunno, just a guess.
Posted by: Tan

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/11/2010 01:05

Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
whats EL Nina?? is that a hybrid state?


Maybe its a 'Cross-dressing Event' that strides across the Pacific Ocean in a thong and a mink coat sending long-range weather forecasters into a massive climatic cumulus congestus! poke
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/11/2010 01:59

Originally Posted By: Tan
Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
whats EL Nina?? is that a hybrid state?


Maybe its a 'Cross-dressing Event' that strides across the Pacific Ocean in a thong and a mink coat sending long-range weather forecasters into a massive climatic cumulus congestus! poke

ROFL
Posted by: Occo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/11/2010 09:17

Originally Posted By: mad mick
For the last two years was given a copy of his forcasts from a person in Ingham, year before last spot on to the week with his thunderstorms and cyclones forcasts but last year was not as close but as he said any volcanic activity in the sea east of us will change the weather as it did last year.I for one would like to know how you can predict this far in advance with storms and cyclones to the week.

2011
A CHANGE IN THE PACIFIC COULD BRING A VOLCANIC ERUPTION

JANUARY
This month is unpredictable because of the cold jet stream.The tides will be higher than normal.Some nights will be cold before returning to usual with very hot days.
1st to 15th - Storms from time to time but mostly fine.
15th to 31st Tropical low in the Coral Sea and Gulf producing a lot of rain to a wide area in Queensland which could develop into a cyclone. The South will be very hot with the mercury up to 45 degrees.

FEBRUARY
A lot of humidity will bring very hot weather for the north. The seas will be very hot because of the EL Nina effort flowing into the Coral Sea. Water evaporation will produce a lot of rain which could result in a big flood. The king tide will be higher than normal at the time of the full moon. A tropical low will turn into a cyclone between the 10th and the end of the month.

MARCH
There is a good chance of a sea storm due to a lot of turbulence in the sea from the 1st to the 15th. It is advisable for boats to stay inshore or listen to the weather reports. Around the 15th there could be some heavy rain due to a disturbance in the Coral Sea. From the 15th -31st there will be some fine weather however some storm activity will persist.


To me- this fellows forecasts seem alot more realistic than our "mate" Ken Ring!!
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/11/2010 09:43

From what i am told this bloke is an old Italian cane farmer somewhere near Bambaroo who puts out these forecasts each wet season this probably explains the miss spelling with EL NINA but we all know what he means regardless of the above comments I just typed it out exactly as he had it on his sheet of paper.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/11/2010 10:12

dont even go there re ken ring as for this other fellow he seems to be on the ball will be interesting to see if these tcs happen in december or not if he is to be beleived we are going to be in serious trouble in the 2nd half of december
This month could see two cyclones with the first being in the beginning of the month. The second will be around 20th - 31st which will be very dangerous for the east coast.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/11/2010 10:17

Mario was way off last year with his predictions, so don't put too much faith in him either. And let's try and stay on topic!
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/11/2010 15:14

When I read about forecasts from these people I always look for something like in this one for January " Some nights will be cold etc ". Since whem do the tropics or even sub tropics get even one cold night in January. It would take some freakish weather event to do this.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/11/2010 15:30

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Sunday the 21st of November 2010 and valid until end of
Wednesday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
An area of low pressure may develop over the northern Coral Sea over the next
few days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Monday: Very low
Tuesday: Very low
Wednesday:Low
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/11/2010 17:42

Looks like GFS has something out in the middle of the Coral Sea midway through next week but its unlikely to head anywhere but SE given the steering flows.
Posted by: RadioBoi1980

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/11/2010 17:52

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=accessg&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=192&focus=mh is this what you mean Locke???
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/11/2010 19:39

poor NT.....they have had bugger all to talk about so far
Posted by: grumbleguts

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/11/2010 20:19

and to think our family were thinking of moving to darwin, not if it's gonna be boring.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/11/2010 20:37

We dont really have anything to talk about either. Its not unusual to see tropical cyclones forming near the solomon island groups and in the far eastern coral sea in November.
Posted by: Orebound

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/11/2010 20:37

Originally Posted By: dawoodman
poor NT.....they have had bugger all to talk about so far


Not really sure what you mean by that DW??? From a weather standpoint I pretty much doubt whether things could have been much better over the past week or so. Darwin has been shredded by a constant barrage of extremely intense storms on a daily basis. Some of which displayed electical activity that Im pretty sure many many people dream of. Unprecedented lightning activity from rapidly developed exteremely tall dangerous storms most of the week to the point where you could almost set your clock to their arrival. I for one would take that over distant weak tropical lows that have no bearing on local weather in general. Horses for courses I guess...
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/11/2010 20:41

Really we are the ones sitting here in Townsville with one storm under our belt for the whole storm season. With terrble upper conditions throughout most of the coral sea, with that also unlikely to change for the next month at LEAST. I know where i would rather be,
Posted by: Orebound

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/11/2010 20:50

Originally Posted By: Travvv doggy dog
Really we are the ones sitting here in Townsville with one storm under our belt for the whole storm season. With terrble upper conditions throughout most of the coral sea, with that also unlikely to change for the next month at LEAST. I know where i would rather be,


Good on ya Trav! But dont tell everybody ok! lol. Hey I though you were going to be heading up this way this year?
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/11/2010 20:55

Im having a big bitch about how i think this season is going to run about. We have huge upper level winds which usually.....usually means lots of storm activity throughout most of Eastern Australia. In return means less cyclones moving westwards towards the east QLD coast. However even though we have that awesome upper support for storms, the storm season has been terrible over all of Queensland. Also with the upper level winds so bad across the coral sea, its just no conductive for cyclone development. Pretty much, wee are stuck in between?
Posted by: Stevo59

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/11/2010 22:11

Originally Posted By: Travvv doggy dog
Im having a big bitch about how i think this season is going to run about. We have huge upper level winds which usually.....usually means lots of storm activity throughout most of Eastern Australia. In return means less cyclones moving westwards towards the east QLD coast. However even though we have that awesome upper support for storms, the storm season has been terrible over all of Queensland. Also with the upper level winds so bad across the coral sea, its just no conductive for cyclone development. Pretty much, wee are stuck in between?


Righty so, given the la Nina conditions. Things may change later in the wet season, but expect upper westerlies and low level easterlies for a several weeks yet.
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/11/2010 23:09

MMMM Just talking to a mate about BOMS predictions of 22 cyclones in OZ waters for this season. Thats more than 1 a week for the remainder of the wet season across Australia. MMMM either they are way out or we are all about to see one of the most insane DEC-APRIL periods in history. The later sounds exciting but frightening at the same time. When things slot into place with all these uppers and thingos its going to be a countdown to see if their 22 comes to reality. Exciting extreme weather events ahead for sure. Enough to go round QLD, NT and WA I would say.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 07:11

Or northern NSW for that matter Popeye.
Posted by: JoshweatherNOW

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 08:10

On the persipitation and surface wind charts on Bom you cqan see an area of clockwise winds and increased percip heading to the NE around Saturday..
Posted by: MikeM

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 08:37

I doubt we'll get to 12 if that, I think the bom are way off - my thoughts.
i reckon qld will get probably 3
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 09:34

I reckon its pretty hard to say. From what I can see the only thing holding back the development of cyclones atm is the state of the uppers(correct me if I am wrong). Everything else is set up beautifully and primed for cyclones. Once those uppers finnally ease then it might have the effect of letting all that bulit up energy go at once. Heres hoping anyway.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 14:29

the first sign of the LOW to appear on the synoptic charts.

Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 15:00

hellooo sorry im trying to learn every thing i can so what do you mean by the uppers ? thanks
Posted by: RadioBoi1980

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 15:39

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cyclone.shtml BOM announce a low may form in next few days
Posted by: shama

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 16:02

Hey Reezy, I don't know too much either, but I think they mean the upper level winds...

I'm open to correction :-) and keep asking questions Reezy - its the only way to learn, and chances are if your wondering about something someone else probably is too!
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 16:03

yeah i guess so cheers shama smile
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 16:08

Yeah mate. Upper level winds(especially the jet stream)have a massive effect on cyclone formation and intensification. Right now they are terrible but that will change at some stage and then we will see some action.
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 16:13

terrible as in strong ?
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 16:23

Not so much strong as they are always fairly strong but more in the wrong place. They should be further south over ther southern half of the country for a good cyclone set up. There are others with far more knowledge than me on this matter but if you look into some older post there is plenty of explanaation on how it all works. If you cant find them-Keep asking
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 16:35

okay ill do that thanks
Posted by: max power

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 18:35

Given La Nina would there be a greater chance of a cyclone crossing futher north in QLD due to the lower water temps? lets say further north than the whitsunday/burdekin region?
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 18:38

the water temps are around 26+, so im sure its possible.
Posted by: !SCHUMMY!

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 18:45

Originally Posted By: max power
Given La Nina would there be a greater chance of a cyclone crossing futher north in QLD due to the lower water temps? lets say further north than the whitsunday/burdekin region?


During La Nina years the water temps are actually warmer in the Coral Sea and cooler in the Pacific Ocean, a crossing is possible anywhere along the entire QLD/NE NSW coast this season....but its always a possibility for crossings down south just this season its higher due to a stronger La Nina. hope this helps you smile
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 18:46

i cant wait for the first rotations of the season to start so excited grin
Posted by: max power

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 18:58

Ahh k cheers Schummy
Posted by: Wet Wet Wet

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 21:28

Originally Posted By: !SCHUMMY!
During La Nina years the water temps are actually warmer in the Coral Sea and cooler in the Pacific Ocean


I found the above statement slightly misleading considering the Coral Sea is part of the Pacific Ocean.

Below is an image of current sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies throughout the Pacific. This is a classic example of a strong La Nina with below average SSTs extending west along the equator off South America and above average SSTs in the Coral Sea.


Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 21:44

Originally Posted By: reezy
hellooo sorry im trying to learn every thing i can so what do you mean by the uppers ? thanks


the uppers are the winds much further up that direct weather systems atm they are much to strong and blowing in the wrong direction for any Tc to come anywhere near us hence what this low will be wisked away to the ESE
hope that helps
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 21:47

cheers squid.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 21:54

Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
I reckon its pretty hard to say. From what I can see the only thing holding back the development of cyclones atm is the state of the uppers(correct me if I am wrong). Everything else is set up beautifully and primed for cyclones. Once those uppers finnally ease then it might have the effect of letting all that bulit up energy go at once. Heres hoping anyway.


correct everything is there just need the uppers to go into summer mode and BOOM
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 22:07

For once i'm thinking QLD might kick WA's butt in the cyclone department this year. Looking forward to seeing an active QLD season when the 'times of old' cyclone years return. When do you think this summer mode will occur and what makes it shift in gear.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 22:43

The BoM got the Tropical low to a 1006hpa later in the week.

About Thursday now they are saying the BoM.


http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 22:50

matt this one is going to head off to nz still it is nice to see something that may form out there this early in the season
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/11/2010 23:39

Popeye its usually just a gradual cycle, the upper troughs move less far north and become more infrequent, upper lows and mid level troughs also become in frequent and dont move north, and then finally the Jet stream moves southwards to below New South Wales usually.
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 00:11

Travdog have you been studying meteorology or what? You've gone from Townsville larrikin to apprentice weather Guru status in under 12 months. I reckon it might be Nitso's influence. Well done mate and i think that Townsville Larrikin status will still be sticking around for some time to come. Looking forward to seeing you crazy qlders posted all over the press and youtube with the next big cyclone chase(s). Go Hard!!!
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 00:39

my crystal ball is telling me Cher should start to ease in the NT & CS/Pacific
around the 4th of Dec... 2010 (lol) +/- a few days smile
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 01:16

Who's Cher? Is she touring in australia? She would want to ease up, isn't she getting on these days. Or do you mean Shear? Makes sense really that a typical summer pattern might begin on the 1st Dec considering that's the first day of Summer.
Posted by: Myak-04

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 01:18

Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
my crystal ball is telling me Cher should start to ease in the NT & CS/Pacific
around the 4th of Dec... 2010 (lol) +/- a few days smile


What's Cher doing in the Coral Sea? Up to her usual shenanigans I bet.

Lol anyway... I really do hope your crystal ball is correct. Would be nice to see conditions getting better.


edit: Haha, damn you Popeye, you beat me to it (shakes fist) . poke
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 01:27

I thought it was Oprah coming out this way, that'll scare the cyclones off grin
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 01:28

HaHa that's funny Myak. Couldn't help but comment on that one. I'm at the end of a bottle of red and it took me half an hour to figure it out. I even had to google cher - Coral sea thinking it may be a new phenomena that occurs in the coral sea that we were unaware of!! Who knows. I think it was ment to read shear.

Shear entertainment though TC Poncho
Posted by: Wet Wet Wet

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 06:57

Just to change subject a little here, in my opinion the current ‘Watch’ & ‘Warning’ setup for Tropical Cyclone impact is a little inadequate. By that I mean the time of the alert is insufficient. Currently a Watch is issued when gale force winds are likely within 48 hrs and a Warning issued when within 24hrs. I personally believe the time should be extended out to at least 72hrs (3 days) to give people a little bit more time to prepare (not that everyone does anyway). Whether that means extended the ‘Watch’ time, or introducing a new stage such as a ‘Tropical Cyclone Alert’ for when gales are expected within 72 hours, followed by the Watch and Warning.

Anyone agree/disagree?
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 07:09

Excellent suggestion WWW, this would definitely benefit SEQ which hasn't been in the firing line for years as it would help to wake them from their complacency.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 07:34

Or if Queensland followed western australias set up. I think its brilliant.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 08:03

Originally Posted By: Popeye
Travdog have you been studying meteorology or what? You've gone from Townsville larrikin to apprentice weather Guru status in under 12 months. I reckon it might be Nitso's influence. Well done mate and i think that Townsville Larrikin status will still be sticking around for some time to come. Looking forward to seeing you crazy qlders posted all over the press and youtube with the next big cyclone chase(s). Go Hard!!!


Yeah man, it does help with Nitso being a close mate i can tell you that. He has taught me alot for which i am grateful for smile Im hoping the larrikan status will stick around too poke
Posted by: JoshweatherNOW

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 08:52

WWW i rekon adding a third section to the warning system would be a great idea!!
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 10:12

I reckon the manufacturers of masking tape would love that idea given that the watch area would probably triple if the warning time were extended to that extent. My feeling is the main reason warning times are set as they are is because the predictions would be too inaccurate otherwise.
Posted by: E-J

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 10:20

Very true Brett. We need to remind ourselves that loss of life is at a minimum in this State due to peoples "alertness". No funding will ever go the Bureau's way unless there is actually something to fix (in the eyes of a shinybum bureaucrat)

The tourism industry in the Cyclone belt would be dead against it too.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 11:06

im off the opinion the current system is fine. info bulletins are released on cyclones that are more than 2 days away, the media is pretty well informed of systems developing. radio stations up here speak to local BOM several times a day 12months of the year.
What I would like to see in Qld though is a similar system to WA with their alert colours. The defence do it, I think it should be implemented here too.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 11:21

Originally Posted By: Popeye
HaHa that's funny Myak. Couldn't help but comment on that one. I'm at the end of a bottle of red and it took me half an hour to figure it out. I even had to google cher - Coral sea thinking it may be a new phenomena that occurs in the coral sea that we were unaware of!! Who knows. I think it was ment to read shear.

Shear entertainment though TC Poncho

lol, yeah was meant to be read as shear. I was just riding the coat tails of a poke at "EL Nina the cross dressing....." post a few pages back.

Thought I might try and liven things up a little round here.
Posted by: JoshweatherNOW

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 12:30

ohh i didnt realise that we didnt have the colour alert system...We need that!!:)
Posted by: cyclonecece

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 13:49

Have always thought it was bloody stupid that QLD didnt have the same warnings as WA ,Blue,Yellow and red alert system should be over here as well.The cyclones are no different over here and its much more populated than the North of WA..Really needs to change
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 13:54

I'm not so sure extending the warning out to 72 hours would make much of a difference. The people who would pay attention in the 48-72 hour timeframe are probably not the ones who make last minute preparations anyway.

For those who treat the warnings seriously and have an understanding of their signficance, the current warning system is effective enough. For those who don't, extending the warning timeframe out to 72 hours is unlikely to make a difference.

When chasing Olga last year, on the night she was approaching Cairns it was business as usual on the esplanade whilst a cyclone packing wind gusts up to 130kmh (and strengthening at the time) lay only 100km offshore. There was no tape, no loose objects packed away and no preparation. Australians do not realise that even a Cat 1 or Cat 2 storm can take lives.
Posted by: shama

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 14:06

Originally Posted By: Locke
Australians do not realise that even a Cat 1 or Cat 2 storm can take lives.


I agree Locke - this is going to be especially true on the southeast coast where the majority of people (especially my age - late 20's) have never experiences a cyclone. the general attitude seems to be - "a cyclone won't hit Brisbane, and if it does it'll just be a bit of heavy rain and strong winds".... very naive.

I kinda hope a small one does hit, just to wake them all up a bit. Then we shall see who is laughing at me with my cyclone kit :-)
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 15:16

I'll leave it to the mods to decide the relevance of this discussion, but I do find it interesting. A general discussion about warnings does crop up now and then. Suffice to say, and I've said it before, there should be a national standardised warning system along the same lines as the WA blue, yellow, and red codes. SEQ is on the same comparative latitude as New Orleans and it's not out of the realm of possibility that it will be hit by a severe TC one day replete with storm surges, sea inundation, and destructive winds. Its population is largely ignorant of such a possibility and the authorities just pray it will never happen - indeed we all do - but the current warning system, whilst adequate in the far north, is too short for a 'Katrina' or the like hitting Brisbane and the Sunshine and Gold Coasts with its myriad of canal estates.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 15:44

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:39pm EST on Tuesday the 23rd of November 2010 and valid until end of
Friday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
An area of low pressure may develop over the northern Coral Sea over the next
few days. If development does occur the system is likely to move east.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday:Very low
Thursday: Low
Friday: Low
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 17:53

Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
SEQ is on the same comparative latitude as New Orleans and it's not out of the realm of possibility that it will be hit by a severe TC one day replete with storm surges, sea inundation, and destructive winds. Its population is largely ignorant of such a possibility and the authorities just pray it will never happen - indeed we all do - but the current warning system, whilst adequate in the far north, is too short for a 'Katrina' or the like hitting Brisbane and the Sunshine and Gold Coasts with its myriad of canal estates.


Digressing from the warning discussion a little (my personal opinion is that we need to implement WA's standard). I have spent the last week or so studying why we in fact don't have as many SE QLD cyclones and why our upper level westerlies are so bloody intense compared to the Nthn hemisphere during our Summer months (forgetting about el-nino, la-nina and focusing just on the climatological norm). Fascinating research papers on the subject.

Basically in a nutshell and a dumbed down somewhat interpretation is that our upper westerlies over the Winter months are weaker than the Nthn Hemisphere (therefore our cold fronts are much weaker) and in the Summer are markedly stronger and northward reaching (that's why our tropical cyclones are constantly obliterated by wind shear and/or move predominantly SE anywhere south of 17 - 20 South whereas recurvature in the Northern hemisphere often doesn't occur until 30 odd North). This has all to do with 2 things:
(1) landmasses creating temperature differences
(2) Topography creating flow disruption in the Nthn hemisphere thus the westerly uppers aren't necessarily uniformly westerly.

Remember as I wrote a few weeks ago, there is little to no evidence from all research articles I've read that el-nino and la nina result in different levels of wind shear over the Coral Sea (this idea of decrease wind shear in la Nina yrs is a case that is true for the US but not for eastern Australia). The increased chances of cyclonic development this season will not come about because our uppers are likely to be any better this year than they have been the last 10 yrs. So we're going to still be frustrated by upper westerlies throughout the season (the first of these frustrations should happen this weekend), all we can do is just hope to get a brief reprieve for a few days at a time and hope that it coincides with a cyclone. Or you could go and spend a Summer in Florida smile
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 18:02

I think US storm chasers have had just as frustrating a time in recent years Nitso. Poor Josh (CycloneJosh on these forums) had to do 3 chases in Mexico this season to get his fix and one of those was aborted when he was halfway there due to connecting flight issues.

There wasn't a single landfalling US hurricaene this season to the best of my knowlege.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 18:29

NOAA and the Navy site have both picked up a LOW Near the solomon Islands and have it listed as SH942011 - INVEST or 94P Invest
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 19:44

It is not only the upper westerlies but the never ending high pressure ridge along the coast the keeps many cyclones away.
Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 20:58

Nearly all models are now progging some tropical developments out near New Cal/Van/Fiji in 5-6 days time. Don't get me wrong....it ain't gonna get anywhere near the Coral Sea, but that's OK, I like them further away and cradled by a semi stationary high pressure system over NZ longitudes!!!
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 21:13

Originally Posted By: Hopefull
It is not only the upper westerlies but the never ending high pressure ridge along the coast the keeps many cyclones away.


High pressure ridges dont really affect tropical cyclone movements. The SOuth East trade wind which affects all of eastern Queensland for most of the year lies in the atmopshere pretty close to the surface. I believe that the SE winds only get to about 850 in the atmosphere. Tropical cyclones are generally pushed by 700-500 winds. It generally depends on the overall depth/height of the actual system. The more strong the system is, the higher the huge cloud tops get in the atmosphere. Meaning that it will then be moved by those wind directions.

Generally a weak Tropical cyclone ( cat 1 - 2 ) or a Low pressure system will usually be pushed by mid level winds 850-700, whilst deeper systems ( cat 3-5 ) get pushed by more upper mid level and upper level winds - 500 - 300.
Posted by: max power

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 23:18

Trav isn't a high pressure system though going to provide some what of a shearline in the case of a low developing next to it? Im not saying its going to be the overall factor to affect cyclone movements, however depending upon the formation of the ridge between the two, will add a certain aspect to the direction of travel of the low.
Posted by: storm freak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/11/2010 23:21

max power....re-read ^^^^
Posted by: Sandfly

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 12:48

From Yesterday's Trop Note.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml

The potential for tropical cyclogenesis is low to moderate west of Sumatra coinciding with the position of an equatorial Rossby wave. In all, a new burst of MJO may not return to Australian longitudes until the first half of December. Based on the current movement of the MJO, the risk of TC formation in the Australian region during the next week is low, however, MJO activity is not the only trigger for cyclogenesis.
Posted by: Willow

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 13:45

Bit of rotation evident near E153, S11 or 12.
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 14:02

what radar or sat loop are you looking at willow ? smile
Posted by: Willow

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 14:11

This one
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 14:18

oh yeah, ill be keeping my eye on that one.
Posted by: JoshweatherNOW

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 15:55

Thats a good site...I see a bit of rotation on this site too...
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 16:43

Me too I can see it as well. smile
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 16:52

i cant see it anymore, what line is it on?
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 16:59

i think i see some thing where -160 and -10 intersect im not sure tho ?
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 17:03

These web sites here will help use two there.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 17:09

where abouts are you looking at Mathew ?
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 17:13

Just off the Coast of Queensland in the Coral sea.

You will see some things rotation over there if you watch it a few time.

That what some one said before here.

Hopefully the BoM will l pick that one up I mean.
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 17:20

i see it ! WOOOOOP ahah poke
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 19:39

where is everyone looking....I must be blind
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 19:43

the BOM still expecting this low to deepen over the weekend while moving eastwards away from qld.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 19:49

Isn't really worth getting to exited about. Doesn't look likely to get much below 1000 if that
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 20:27

Originally Posted By: max power
Trav isn't a high pressure system though going to provide some what of a shearline in the case of a low developing next to it? Im not saying its going to be the overall factor to affect cyclone movements, however depending upon the formation of the ridge between the two, will add a certain aspect to the direction of travel of the low.


Depends how weak the cyclone more than anything. I do know that a high pressure system can cradle a system in one spot if there are no other steering influences. If its a weak surface low then it definatly can be pushed by a high pressure system, but once it starts developing vertically, then its up to the Mids and upper level winds.
Posted by: !SCHUMMY!

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 21:22

IF something develops out there over the next week, it should head E/SE.

What would be the chance for it to turn around as it gets to about 20S and then head SW afterwards? i know its highly unlikely at this point of time but its just wishful thinking....
Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 21:26

Originally Posted By: !SCHUMMY!
What would be the chance for it to turn around as it gets to about 20S and then head SW afterwards? i know its highly unlikely at this point of time but its just wishful thinking....

Isn't this exactly what the latest GFS model is progging?

Now I know most of you guys aren't getting excited by this system/forecast as it's a long way from the mainland, but for us surfers, the current GFS charts are a wet dream!!! So can someone please tell me GFS isn't having a brain explosion with it's latest 00z run forecast!!!
Posted by: !SCHUMMY!

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 21:31

actually i havent had a look at any charts yet as my net is running low from too much usage haha well even better if GFS has it on their charts but then again it is way too far out to tell....nothing as even developed yet, just lots of messy cloud about....
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 21:33

The EC Model does something similiar. Forms briefly our over fiji area, probably Low Cat 1 before moving south/southwest just hovering there to the Nth of NZ. Any swell generated by a low grade CAT 1 cyclone wouldn't be worth to much anyway. I suppose you surf the waves so you would know Donweather. Post some pics up if it eventuates. Love a good swell run.

GFS certainly tightens the bands around that Low on their model making it look pretty big but currently EC model is no where near as big. If the EC model replicates that tight banding in their images you know its game on with something more serious.
Posted by: Ms Milo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 21:41

the waiting game sends me insane
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 21:46

Tell me about it Ms Milo. Any action early in the season is great to watch unfold but it just seems to be holding off week after week after week. I suppose though when it comes it could be a biggie. SE QLD could even potentially be in the firing line in years like this too.
Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 21:50

Originally Posted By: Popeye
Any swell generated by a low grade CAT 1 cyclone wouldn't be worth to much anyway.

Popeye, it's not just the low pressure system that we look at. Having a low cradled by a semi-stationary high pressure system, with the fetch moving in the same direction as the wind creates an active sea state, and the 00z GFS run was progging the low/high combination to create an open ocean swell embedded in the fetch of the order of 20ft!!

That's sweet music to a surfer on the east coast.

Anyway, my joy has turned to tears in the 06z GFS run frown
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 21:52

it will weaken as soon as it hits colder water...
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 21:53

I wonder how QLD's beaches will fair this season if its a cracker of a cyclone season. Good to get some before and after shots of local beaches if something comes through this season. Might make a few nice sand banks for some sweet waves later too. Cable Beach in Broome washed away in 2000 and took over 3 months to return to its former glory. Amazing what some big storm swells can do.
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 21:58

Originally Posted By: reezy
it will weaken as soon as it hits colder water...


Not to mention being shredded to pieces by shear and being spat out towards Chile. Give it another 6 weeks though and it could be a constant barrage of lows in the Coral sea all summer doing all sorts of things, generating big swells down the east coast all summer long.
Hoping for the same over here.
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 22:01

so i had this dream... 3 cyclones merged.....
Posted by: Ms Milo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 22:17

If a Cat 4 or higher crosses the SEQ coast this season I will name my second born child after it.
Posted by: Taylsy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 22:51

Hoping for your sake Ms Milo it won't be Severe Tropical Cyclone Iggy! poke
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 23:44

Originally Posted By: Donweather
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Any swell generated by a low grade CAT 1 cyclone wouldn't be worth to much anyway.

Popeye, it's not just the low pressure system that we look at. Having a low cradled by a semi-stationary high pressure system, with the fetch moving in the same direction as the wind creates an active sea state, and the 00z GFS run was progging the low/high combination to create an open ocean swell embedded in the fetch of the order of 20ft!!

That's sweet music to a surfer on the east coast.

Anyway, my joy has turned to tears in the 06z GFS run frown


Met Fiji are anticipating intensification on Saturday
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/tc_outlook.pdf

Theres also two nice looking blobs Ive got my eye on.
#1 is at 160E 13S and the other is at about 150E 11S
Shear looks OK up that high but not if it drops lower
into the CS.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/11/2010 23:50

so does it turn into a triclone? laugh
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 05:39

When it comes to north QLD high pressure ridges don't matter but I am positive for the southern coast it is the absolute main reason for cyclones being deflected away.
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 07:14

don i see what you mean if you look just below the 150E,11S at about 12S its starting to circulate
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 07:30

looks like Monday next week the high weakens and moves south with a trough moving over Queensland, hopefully a low sets in and its ON !
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 07:31

Originally Posted By: Hopefull
When it comes to north QLD high pressure ridges don't matter but I am positive for the southern coast it is the absolute main reason for cyclones being deflected away.


Whats the difference between north QLD and South QLD? High pressure systems are still both at the surface regardless.

The main reason cyclones get deflected away is from upper troughs.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 17:07

we have rotation:) 157E 14S
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 17:17

Definitely a bet better than this morning too. Be interesting to see what comes of it
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 17:29

it will get pushed out to for far any thing interesting
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 17:34

Originally Posted By: reezy
it will get pushed out to for far any thing interesting

depends on what your idea of interesting is tho smile
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 17:44

well if you interesting is to watch some clouds blow out to sea. your in for a treat poke
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 18:10

I think the interest will be whether or not it acheives cyclone status regardless of where it goes
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 18:16

hahah alright alright i see your point poke
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 18:32

Your not that far wrong though. It will head east qucikly and I don't think it will even make cat 1
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 18:38

whats pushing ? shear ? because the high should be keeping it up this way ?
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 18:49

nah, more interested in swell generation. Doesnt really bother me if its from the CS or SouthPac.

If it reaches cat one as it is scooting off towards Fiji I guess it will count as one of the 22 laugh
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 18:53

Originally Posted By: reezy
whats pushing ? shear ? because the high should be keeping it up this way ?


Upper level low over QLD east coast directing a NW airstream over it

Shear is the difference in wind speed between the upper westerlies and lower easterlies in this case, or just difference in wind speed between the heights regardless of direction.
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 18:54

oh i see cheers
Posted by: RadioBoi1980

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 18:59

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/cyclone/seasonal/ this is the seasonal outlook for the cyclones... I met Ann Farrell in mackay (one of the presenters) verrrry interesting this upcoming season.
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 19:05

will be interesting to see. smile
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 19:06

would love to know the pressure inside those storms out there
Posted by: KevD

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 19:09

OK, enough of these one liners...please take one line chat elsewhere and feel free to post here if you have anything productive to add. Any more similar posts will be deleted.

Cheers
Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 21:45

Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
nah, more interested in swell generation. Doesnt really bother me if its from the CS or SouthPac.

If it reaches cat one as it is scooting off towards Fiji I guess it will count as one of the 22 laugh

Poncho, the latest EC chart (00z run) has a very nice looking setup for swell production mid-late next week, with the low/high combo remaining semi stationary just above NZ, and even an ever so slight retrograde westward!!!

Of course GFS has abandoned this idea in it's latest 00z run....typical!!!
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 22:34

Originally Posted By: Donweather
Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
nah, more interested in swell generation. Doesnt really bother me if its from the CS or SouthPac.

If it reaches cat one as it is scooting off towards Fiji I guess it will count as one of the 22 laugh

Poncho, the latest EC chart (00z run) has a very nice looking setup for swell production mid-late next week, with the low/high combo remaining semi stationary just above NZ, and even an ever so slight retrograde westward!!!

Of course GFS has abandoned this idea in it's latest 00z run....typical!!!

The Fiji met have upgraded an area NEAR 15.4S 166.1E as a moderate chance of forming into a cyclone, so you might aSWELL see some action and big waves coming in your direction
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 23:06

Hey DW
Lol, I would trust EC over GFS anyway.

Ive been looking at the uppers and can't understand why they have the low curving back SW over the top of NZ. Can anyone shed any light?

I wish the local onshore would bugger off too, along with the cloud cover.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 23:12

Its at the end of the models run, if its there in the next run then there would be a reason why. EC for some reason now and again at the end of a model run, does some crazy insane stuff like that.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/11/2010 23:19

its just caz GFS were showing it too. Or is it just like you say, the models can do some crazy stuff so far out.
Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 07:21

Originally Posted By: Travvv doggy dog
Its at the end of the models run, if its there in the next run then there would be a reason why. EC for some reason now and again at the end of a model run, does some crazy insane stuff like that.

Its hardly at the end of the model run (its progged for like 6-7 days out) and EC has been forecasting it at least in its last 3 model runs (the intensification of the low preesure system just above NZ and a slight westward retrograde).
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 07:35

Wait and see if its there in todays model run. You have to realise its not even a tropical cyclone in the last three frames of the model. The cold water around New zealand will do its job.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 08:24

any further discussion on the low pressure system at 166E can be discussed in the relevant thread please, click below,
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...lone#Post895051
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 11:50

i think there's some rotation at -7.46, 148.48
Posted by: Secret Squirrel

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 12:45

Near Flinders Reef?
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 12:54

near PNG http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 13:55

Originally Posted By: Travvv doggy dog
Wait and see if its there in todays model run. You have to realise its not even a tropical cyclone in the last three frames of the model. The cold water around New zealand will do its job.

I figured it wasn't a TC off the top of NZ, and for swell generation purpose it's better if it isn't a TC anyway. Just need the low to deepen and stall on the northern flank of the high just to the north of NZ, just as the latest EC model is progging, and she'll be sweet music to us surfers ears.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 15:58

There are now 2 Tropical low out there one hear Fiji and the one way out to sea.

What ones will be moving closer to the Queensland Coral sea the low hear Fiji it's is a 1005 hpa?

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 16:20

that one looks like its heading out to sea ? iv still got my eye on some rotation up near PNG is noticeable on http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 17:09

NRL have picked up a second area of convection near 160E 15S and is listed under 97P invest
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 18:20

I cannot see any noticable rotation near PNG and i stared at it for 5 minutes. Also i highly doubt the Low 2000ks of the coast will even turn into a cyclone. It looks terrible.
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 18:20

oh realy ! i cant see it on the infrared loop. tho im realy interested with the area over png, im expecting some thing to happen once it moves over open water.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 18:31

Ill give it a 0.000111111 chance of anything happening. The upper level winds at this moment are 30-40 knot westerlies. If any cluster of thunderstorms do start to develop its just going to be teared apart if any sort of "significant" low forms.

People seriously. Your not going to see any cyclone in the coral sea for a long time. In the current pattern that is dominating Australian weather is upper troughs. With upper troughs around there is going to be too much upper level winds for any Significant development that is going to form within 160E. At the moment we have a new upper level system coming through once a week. Next week is the same, the whole eastern side of Queensland is going to be dominated by a upper trough lying in inland Queensland.

Everyone just needs to chill a bit. Wait till mid-late december to start getting excited. Go read old weatherzone threads on ULUI, and Larry and George. So that way you can learn more about the systems themselves, and all tropical systems as a whole. Its much more productive that sitting here thinking a cyclone may or not form.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 19:00

guys, trav has a very good point.
if you are going to analyise and get excited about every bit of rotation in the coral sea over the next 5 months then its going to be a long, long summer.
not every low is going to intensify, not every thunder storm cluster is going to develop. As has been mentioned many time over the past few pages there is very little chance of any development due to upper level condtions.
cyclones require a large number of perfect atmospheric events to take place at the same time. please take the time to study what other members are saying, look at the models, the charts and forecasts. Useless one liners are just that and will continue to clog this thread like it already has.
52 pages and not even into december yet...............
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 19:25

whether a system develops into a cyclone or weakens into nothing, either way its to do with cyclone formation and what the weather is doing pretty sure last time i checked this thread was titled coral sea tropical cyclone season 2010-2011, even if a system doesn't develop talking about it is still related.
Posted by: MikeM

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 19:54

I'll try again to post " mods why do you delete them ???? ""
I don't think we'll have anything that resembles a cyclone til late december if we are lucky. There are always rotations going round the place, look at the models , even they aren't showing anything in the australian region. Too many cyclone startved people here. I think with the predictions we all may just be a little dissappointed.
Posted by: Seventh Storm

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 20:41

There's a lot of negativity on this thread. Getting excited about the prospect of a cyclone forming is half the fun, even if there is only a small chance of them impacting queensland any time soon.
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 20:43

very well said seventh storm !i agree completely
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 20:45

Originally Posted By: reezy
whether a system develops into a cyclone or weakens into nothing, either way its to do with cyclone formation and what the weather is doing pretty sure last time i checked this thread was titled coral sea tropical cyclone season 2010-2011, even if a system doesn't develop talking about it is still related.


I kinda have to agree here. As stated it is the "coral sea tropical cyclone season 2010-2011" even if something starts in the CS and is heading E to the SouthPac, its still belongs here until it does.

I dont know why everyone is getting so annoyed about peoples obs clogging up this thread. Once it looks like its gonna turn into something more significant, two threads get created, one for general and one for tech for the specific event.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 20:51

Originally Posted By: Travvv doggy dog
I cannot see any noticable rotation near PNG and i stared at it for 5 minutes. Also i highly doubt the Low 2000ks of the coast will even turn into a cyclone. It looks terrible.


So is that why fiji met has one of these lows with a high chance of turning into a cyclone for the next 3 days?
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 21:11

I suppose its something that did originate in the eastern waters of the Coral sea and does have a place in here. A bit like that cloud mass over in WA ATM. Its going to form into something aswell but head away from us too. I honestly think that being a tropical weather forum, both are disturbances within our region if not more neighbouring regions and can be discussed in here as long as it kept under control which is what I guess Mick and Trav are saying. Keep up all the good obs though crew and keep it friendly in here. Thats what these forums are about and we dont want to scare off new people from posting their thoughts.
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 21:18

i think its great getting other peoples opinions and thoughts, after all thats what the forums are for and everyone should take each others thought ad opinions into consideration no matter what the topic as long as its part of the thread i dont see the problem. but enough on this and back to zee weather.
Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 21:55

One way to stop all this excitement in this thread is to create a "Tropical South Pacific Cyclone" thread. There was one such thread last year.

It appears the lack of excitement is due to the well known fact that the cyclone that is likely to form near Fiji this weekend has not a chance in hell of impacting the SE Qld coastline.

So whack up another thread I say and that way those that get interested in TC developments even if they have no chance of impacting Qld can dribble (with excitement) in that thread til their hearts content.

I know I'm getting excited about this puppy, particularly if it goes extra-tropical and stalls north of NZ for a few days!!! Bring on some nice lines of E'ly groundswell I say.

Anyone know what name it will be (I'm assuming it will be named under Fiji Met)?
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 21:57

how can cyclones even survive down in NZ's cold waters ?
Posted by: Taylsy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/11/2010 22:21

Originally Posted By: Donweather
One way to stop all this excitement in this thread is to create a "Tropical South Pacific Cyclone" thread. There was one such thread last year.


There is an active thread on this here
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 27/11/2010 00:29

ok the entire problem here is that there is NO low that is developing in the coral sea at the moment. Myself, and the other mods of course have no problem with discussion taking place on any low that looks like developing into a cyclone, but the fact is there isnt one.
have a look, here
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDX1299.shtml
where between the qld coast and the 160E is there a tropical low showing any signs of development?
and, once again, as has been mentioned several times, if a low tried to form, it would be ripped to shreds by wind shear.
I posted 24hours ago, saying, if you wanted to continue to post on the low forming in the Fijian area, then you can do so in the correct thread, which is in "The World" forum, which once again is mentioned in the post above.
Posted by: MikeM

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 27/11/2010 08:29

I can go with that mick10. Well said. It may end up being a dissapointing year taking into acccount the predictions, but hope i'm wrong. From what i can see there may be a standard south-east track if any cyclone forms this season. From season to season i have noticed that they average a certain direction, this could be due to persistant uppers that continue for the whole season. So i think the average track this year will be south-east, my thoughts due to this persistant upper jet and high ( which is now i think permanently anchorched to new zealand ) Any other thoughts on cyclone average tracks for this year for the coral sea ?
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 27/11/2010 10:27

If I was betting man and I was being offered even odds, my money would clearly go on SE tracks. If you compiled statistics on storms in the Coral Sea south of 15 degrees I'm sure you'd end up with 70-80% of storms taking a SE track.

I would argue that the predominant steering flows are SE and that the forces that will make a storm deviate from this type of track are very difficult to predict more than a few weeks out.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 27/11/2010 10:48

We are currently in a phase where we are experiencing very strong inland and east coast troughs, once this phase passes and the monsoon builds, we should expect to see some action
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 27/11/2010 21:57

Originally Posted By: reezy
how can cyclones even survive down in NZ's cold waters ?

they change into mid latitude depressions that often bring damainging weather to NZ
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 28/11/2010 02:01

usually by the time they get within 500ks of New Zeland they are classed as extra tropical cyclones. The low level circulation is usually well exposed by this time from bad wind shear. Also the lows usually change from warm cored systems to cold cored systems.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/11/2010 10:05

All is not lost Chris and Trav, EC on its last couple runs have greatly improved upper condition in the Coreal Sea from 7 December when those pesky westerlies abate and an upper high starts to dominate. Well, that's a start, the next problem is vorticity. Whilst the reliable trade winds should be present there is nothing coming the other way (monsoon or MJO) to spin things up.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/11/2010 17:23

at least there is a light at th eend of th etunnel with the wsterly expected to abate this hopefully will see th euppers go into summer pattern
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/11/2010 07:38

I have been keeping an eye on a LLCC at 17s 162E which has almost made it into our AOR. It has moved WSW for the past two days. Now before you jump down my throat I know there is little or no chance of TC development due to High Wind Shear, and a lack of upper divergence but I thought it might be good to point out a LLCC to the people learning on this forum and show a good example of how they can be steered at low levels against the Mid/Upper Level winds.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/11/2010 08:17

Nicely spotted mate. I think it is the same system that is showing up in the AcccessG models atm
here
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/11/2010 13:47

its around 1-3 days after that map BG, that the shear begins to ease as a upper high moves over the east coast:)
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/11/2010 18:48

Steamy looks to be heading slightly north but will it last
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/11/2010 19:24

Not sure how it will interact with the Upper Trough. I think it (upper trough) may add moisture to the LLCC and the LLCC will gain structure and turn around and move ESE.

Not sure though?
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/11/2010 19:31

Here a another few days I think we will see the 1st Tropical Cyclone develop in the Queensland coral sea on the 15th of December and a another one day the 22nd of December 2010 who know December 2010 is going to be very interesting with Tropical Cyclone development in the Queensland coral sea if any one come up any more days what they think be free to add them here it's just to help the BoM and the weather zone forums.
Posted by: MikeM

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/12/2010 08:02

Mat, either had a few beers or you know nostradamus ( couldn't really understand the paragrapgh) but one on the 15th and another on the 22nd, big call, wish you were right, but i can't see us getting any now til january at least.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/12/2010 11:05

VWS is finally set to start easing late next week. Monsoon trough is now in Sthn hemisphere. Nthn hemisphere is beginning to see some decent HIGHS. MJO heading our way mid - late Dec. Heat LOWS in WA finally beginning to show some intensity. I like where mid - late December is heading, but I'm only staying cautiously optimistic.

Now we need our HIGHS to drop back to the low 1020's and these upper troughs to weaken and/or stay in western QLD. And for Christ sake no more Upper LOWS over Southern/Central QLD!!!!
Posted by: adam17

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/12/2010 11:58

Rotation @ 147.20E 17.79S
Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/12/2010 13:01

Can see some scattered showers out there Adam but thats about it?
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/12/2010 13:56

Originally Posted By: Steamy
Not sure how it will interact with the Upper Trough. I think it (upper trough) may add moisture to the LLCC and the LLCC will gain structure and turn around and move ESE.

Not sure though?


Moving South now pretty quickly 17s 158E
Posted by: adam17

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/12/2010 15:18

Originally Posted By: amphetamarine
Can see some scattered showers out there Adam but thats about it?


On the satellite imagery, not visible on radar. About intersect North of between Townsville and Ayr, and East of Tully. It could be image trickery... but its only popped its head up since this morning.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/12/2010 23:52

Plankton, water Colour & Tropical Cyclones.
Check it out http://www.coastalwatch.com/news/article.aspx?articleId=8292
Posted by: NorthernLights

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 03/12/2010 23:14

Hey guys, i am sorry but just going with my gut feeling on this...but just looking at the current bom map, am getting a view of the start of a clockwise rotation btw innisfail and townsville off the coast, as it appears very slight would just like confirmation on what others may think..please advise correction if i am not seeing this right...
Posted by: Wet Wet Wet

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 03/12/2010 23:25

Mate I’m afraid I can’t see any “rotation”, only curvature associated with the passing of an upper level trough. There’s currently a surface trough off the Central/Capricornia Coast and a weak LOW is expected to form on the trough in the vicinity of the 1770 area (1770 is a town) – however this will definitely not be a cyclone.
Posted by: NorthernLights

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 03/12/2010 23:33

Hey no worries WWW, just taking a gander on the bom and didnt know if I was seeing things... thought I was seeing some very slight development..but thanks for the update, cheers...
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/12/2010 14:43

has anyone else noticed how high the Townsville sst's got he other day? Spiked at 30.5 and Emu Park spiked at 28 smile
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/12/2010 15:22

The latest tropical storm risk has now been updated,
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/12/2010 18:52

To expand a bit on missions_shak's post...

Tropical Storm Risk is now saying that Australian tropical cyclone activity in 2010/11 will be about 45% above normal. This is amazing!

I've never seen them more confident:

There is a 92% probability that Australian-region tropical storm numbers in 2010/11 will be above average (defined as more than 12 tropical storms), a 7% likelihood they will be near normal (defined as between 9 and 12 tropical storms) and only a 1% chance they will be below normal (defined as less than 9 tropical storms). The 1975/6-2009/10 climatology probabilities for each category are 37% (abovenormal), 29% (near-normal) and 34% (below-normal).

Their reasoning:

TSR’s main predictor is the observed anomaly in October/November Niño 4 sea surface temperature (SST) which is cooler than average at -1.53oC. Since SSTs in this region are linked to vertical wind shear over the Australian region during Austral summer, belowaverage Niño 4 SST indicates below-average wind shear and above-average tropical storm activity. Thus we expect Australian basin cyclone activity and landfalling numbers to be well above-average in 2010/11

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAUSForecastDec2010.pdf

So there you have it. With the BOM hinting that the MJO could arrive as early as next week, I think quite a large firecracker is about to explode...
Posted by: Occo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/12/2010 19:24

Given that the TC season runs from "NoveMber to April"- the BOM is still predicting 6 TC's to form off the QLD coast this season- so- technically- thats 6 TC's between now and the end of April!!!! shocked shocked
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/12/2010 19:26

its still possible
Posted by: storm freak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/12/2010 19:53

I'm not sure I could handle that much excitement on these forums, I dont even think weatherzone could...just imaginge the number of posts if this panned out lol
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/12/2010 20:28

it would be an unintentional dDOS...i do think it happened last year...or that could have been the school internet dropping out
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/12/2010 22:18

It happened while Ului was hovering off the coast. That thread reached like 200 pages or something stupid like that.

Anyways, I'm gonna be in Canberra for 8 days over Christmas, so it can happy any time that is not during that time poke
Posted by: max power

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/12/2010 00:12

mission_shak cheers for sending that through...i know im a newbie...but the table suggests by TSR in the deterministic forecasts for the Australian Region that a number of 6.7 (±2.2) severe tropical cyclones in the july 2010 quarter? Am i reading something wrong?
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/12/2010 10:15

I think they were saying in their July 2010 update that they were forecasting 6.7 severe cyclones across the australian region for this wet season. In the latest Dec update it has pushed up to 8.3. So a steady increase in their predictions as the season approaches. Gnarly times ahead folks.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/12/2010 15:10

is a tropical storm classed the same thing as a tropical cyclone though? Or is it more of a disturbance?
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/12/2010 16:56

I'm not really sure of this models accuracy. I suppose you could throw in a few extra cyclones in a La Nina year and be spot on the money but I have to doubt these poms sitting back in their labs in the UK giving us detailed reports of our cyclone season. Saying that though my favourite model EC (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) I think is from the UK too. At least there models are based on 10 day forecasts not 6 months in advance. Time will tell come next April we may have all witnessed an insane wet season in the tropics. I hope so.

In answer to your question though TC Ponch, this is off their sheet in regards to trop storms vs trop cyclone.

Key: Severe Tropical Cyclone = 1 Minute Sustained Wind > 63Kts = Hurricane Category 1 to 5.
Tropical Storm = 1 Minute Sustained Wind > 33Kts.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/12/2010 20:25

yeah in that original thread with the quote from the report, it was referring to tropical storms. But then again, i guess TC's come from TS's so.... now i have confused myself ROFL.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/12/2010 22:33

This is an American report which is using its TC classification system which is the SSS. A US tropical storm is the same as our TC cat 1, except it requires sustained winds of greater than 33 kts for only one minute as opposed to the Australian requirement of 10 minutes.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/12/2010 13:01

Wow it's amazing how quicklt things can change in a few days. I spent the last 4 days away from the computer and have just jumped on to check things out. In that time things have gone from almost depressing for TC development to very, very encouraging..The uppers have backed right off with the jet dropping down to southern NSW
200mb

and check out the change in the sat animations. All sorts of good things goin on out there.3 days ago it was all just heading east.
HERE
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/12/2010 13:59

Unfortunately Brett, it's just a temporary backflip for now. The SE uppers are in response to an upper LOW over the Eastern CS (as mentioned by RWM in the Townsville thread). We have a new upper trough moving eastwards and off the east coast early to mid next week which will again screw things up in the Coral Sea. There's not much upper divergence out there and winds are strong in upper levels. Conditions are fast becoming favourable over the Indian Ocean, it won't be long before a TC develops out there (I would say within the next fortnight) and we should see those favourable conditions propagate eastwards late in the month or early in January. But for now it's business as usual and no TC's. frown
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/12/2010 14:33

I agree with that pretty much in that I really don't see a Dec cyclone in the CS but is encouraging to say the least. I wonder though if the jet will come as far north next time around or sit in a more promising position to the south.
Posted by: adam17

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/12/2010 20:40

Interesing forecast.
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/12/2010 20:43

3 lows/cyclones at the same time! Crazy forecast!
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/12/2010 21:18

Originally Posted By: Adamºc
Interesing forecast.

looks slightly different on this run.
Posted by: adam17

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/12/2010 21:30

Party Spoiler.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/12/2010 22:26

Originally Posted By: Adamºc
Party Spoiler.

Hey don't blame me! poke grin
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/12/2010 22:45

They have just updated, GFS looks even better. Going to be a busy week.



Sorry had to do that!!! NOT REAL IMAGE!
Posted by: drivenunder

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/12/2010 22:47

Good LORD! If only! poke
Posted by: DeniseEm

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/12/2010 22:59

LOL bet that made a few ppl quickly click the link and check it.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/12/2010 23:00

O my God GFS is back on the crazy drugs those Americans keep giving it every Summer. We have an unwritten rule here in Qld of divide by three. Take what GFS is predicting and divide by three - if you do that it tends to be pretty accurate.

So if the model is predicting three TC's use the rule of three and you will be guaranteed one of those will come to fruition. One will likely be a weak LOW that will have the 'potential' to later develop and one will be some cruel joke whereby some crazy American scientist decided to input a strange variable in the model's parameters just for a laugh.

Note the same rule of three generally applies to the ridiculous (at times over 1000mm) rainfall totals it estimates as well. Not sure how the rule applies outside tropical areas, but for us it seems to work like a charm.
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/12/2010 23:06

Ha classic. Now I know how to interpret their models. Hey Nitso, whats your thoughts on WA's setup over the next week or two. Sorry to steal some QLD expertise but would be good to have your input if you know how it all works over here in WA.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/12/2010 23:26

Originally Posted By: Popeye
They have just updated, GFS looks even better. Going to be a busy week.



Sorry had to do that!!! NOT REAL IMAGE!


I wanna frame that:)
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/12/2010 23:27

Two words "La Nina" anythings possible.
Posted by: KevG

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/12/2010 08:41

Seriously could not breathe or talk until i scrolled down.
Posted by: KevG

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 12/12/2010 22:49

Wonder if this might be the first real chance to see how accurate CMC model is?
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=cmc&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=144&focus=mh
any thaughts?
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 12/12/2010 22:58

its the only model forecasting anything in the CS. ext GFS has the GOC low moving SE into central west QLD, thats about it. i cant imagine anything exciting happening in the CS for a week or two atleast while the odds are still in favour of WA/NT cyclone. but weirder things have happened!!
Posted by: storm freak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 12/12/2010 23:27

Could someone post an image of what the CMC model is forecasting. Dont have Weatherzone silver..
Posted by: Steven

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 12/12/2010 23:32

Don't get too excited about this one yet - even if CMC is correct this system would not be within the Eastern Australia AOR. The CMC forecast shows development east of 160E with movement SE towards Fiji
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 13/12/2010 07:51

Two small swirls 173E 12S and another one at 152E 12S yes no
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 13/12/2010 07:54

CMC first of all is terrible.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 13/12/2010 10:25

forget CMC almost as bad as the old gasp
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 13/12/2010 12:02

Interesting little piece of information I just found. Was going through the cyclone tracks for all cyclones crossing the coast within 50km of my home town of Innisfail. I decided to break it down into 20year blocks to see how often we cop one. All of those 20 year blocks had either 3 or 4 crossings exept for the last which only had one(Although that one was Larry). I guess a lot of that is to do with the prolonged El Nino period that we have just gone through but did find it an interestin statistic. Wonder if we are DUE!
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 13/12/2010 13:19

Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Interesting little piece of information I just found. Was going through the cyclone tracks for all cyclones crossing the coast within 50km of my home town of Innisfail. I decided to break it down into 20year blocks to see how often we cop one. All of those 20 year blocks had either 3 or 4 crossings exept for the last which only had one(Although that one was Larry). I guess a lot of that is to do with the prolonged El Nino period that we have just gone through but did find it an interestin statistic. Wonder if we are DUE!

The way i see it is the further away you get from one event the closer it brings you to the Next one!
Posted by: MikeM

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 13/12/2010 13:23

Mad Mick, you'll get swirls everywhere between now and april. Only %2 of these if that develop.
Posted by: Secret Squirrel

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 13/12/2010 15:03

Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Interesting little piece of information I just found. Was going through the cyclone tracks for all cyclones crossing the coast within 50km of my home town of Innisfail. I decided to break it down into 20year blocks to see how often we cop one. All of those 20 year blocks had either 3 or 4 crossings exept for the last which only had one(Although that one was Larry). I guess a lot of that is to do with the prolonged El Nino period that we have just gone through but did find it an interestin statistic. Wonder if we are DUE!


Good Work Brett! Thats very interesting. Could be due!
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 13/12/2010 22:00

What's the view on the bom 4 day... is that our first trough? and if so what is at the end of the coral sea rainbow?
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 14/12/2010 06:57

Yeah mate that is the monsoon trough poking it's nose into the CS but I doubt anything will come of it just yet. Another10-14 days however and things could change dramatically.
Posted by: Ree

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 14/12/2010 10:32

Yesterday was my first day for the month without rain. Enjoying the sunshine while I can!
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 14/12/2010 10:53

Using a statistical average to forecast a cyclone is a bit like those two nutters who used to be here who tried to forecast weather by using 11 year, 3 months and 8 day old data as a modelling tool. It doesn't work. There are too many variables at work which have descrete, but when combined, huge influences on whether a cyclone forms or not or any other form of weather. Subtle as in a slight change in direction of a cold southerly current which swings more northerly and drops the sub surface temprature by a couple of degrees robs a potential cyclone of the fuel/heat it needs to form.

People like to be able to compartmentalise things and try to fit them into something that they can readily understand hence the use of the words "Due for a big cyclone" when in fact every year has exactly the same probability of such a cyclone forming. Just because we haven't had a repeat of STC Althea in Townsville doesn't mean we are "overdue" for another one and the same holds true for STC Larry. Reading something into data is a very human but not a very scientific trait. We try to see patterns where none exist. (Can you imagine if reading weather patterns actually worked? Every insurance agency on the planet would immediately cancel every storm/flood/cyclone cover the instant they discoved the slimmest chance of a cyclone forming. There would never be another drought impact anywhere in the world and no need for people to starve, flood damage and deaths could be averted etc.)

In other words what I'm trying to say is that it could be another 100 years before another STC Larry/Tracy/Althea forms or it could happen in 10 days time. That is what makes weather watching so interesting. The unpredicatability of it all.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 14/12/2010 17:48

I agree with that comletely Boab. I use the term 'Due for a cyclone' very lightly but I thought it was an interesting statistic nonethless. And as I said I am positive this lack of crossings locally is to do with the extended El Nino we have experienced although another reason this may be hapening is improved classification of cyclones as opposed to tropical lows(in that some previous CYCLONE crossings may in fact simply have been LOWS that were incorrectly classified). Again though it does all go in cycles and we have been in a quiet period recently but that may be changing. Take for example the 1890's. Possibly the 3 biggest floods in recorded history(bigger than 74/74) all in the space of ten years. Not suggesting we are going to see a repeat of that situation but it is something to consider.

Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 14/12/2010 17:54

Cyclone update for Queensland
******************************

There are no significant tropical lows in the region at present. The monsoon
trough is developing near the north coast of the Top End and a low pressure
system may form in the Arafura or Timor seas late in the week.

Just need a little watching over there.....
Posted by: storm freak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 14/12/2010 22:03

Nice link for anyone interested learning more than what BOM offers about Cyclogenesis
http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap13/trop_cyclogenesis.html
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 15/12/2010 23:13

Just a hint of a LLCC at 15S 155E showing on the IR colorized loop perhaps?
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/12/2010 08:39

Has somebody been on the Christmas sauce? Hmmm Christmas eve looks interesting! crazy


Posted by: storm freak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/12/2010 08:50

Haha Mission! Hope it comes off. Locke it definately does look like an llcc out there, hasnt broken up over night either, in fact, it appears to be firing up. Don't think much will come of it but hey who am I to say lol. What do the experts think?
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/12/2010 09:14

someone is on the good stuff there
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/12/2010 09:14

Current steering currents would push anything except a strong system on a westward track. Shear isnt fantastic but I've seen worse. Most of these little circulations amount to nothing but I guess its something to keep an eye on. Potentially some action in the gulf too but thats for the NT thread I think.
Posted by: Sandfly

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/12/2010 10:43

Originally Posted By: mission_shak
Has somebody been on the Christmas sauce? Hmmm Christmas eve looks interesting! crazy




That's mental, and obviously a major error. But pretty funny, I just shown this the the guys and girls in my office and now they are in a mild panic about christmas day.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/12/2010 13:24

I saw that map this morning and though WTF? it stands out, maybe the apprentice is to blame again....
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/12/2010 18:01

Just checking the latest EC charts and I noticed christmas day cyclone potential for the QLD coast. Thought I would throw it in here to get you guys all excited. Something to watch.

Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/12/2010 18:14

Thanks for that update that was very hopefully.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/12/2010 18:22

It's starting to get that feel to it with the mjo propogating eastward and the monsoon firing up and not to mention the state of the upper levels. Hey we might even beat the west to the first cyclone of the season. Although I still reckon that is unlikely.
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/12/2010 18:51

We just cant seem to get it up!! A cyclone on the scoreboard that is. I think its an even bet across the top WA, NT and Qld as to who gets the first one. If EC is to go by though QLD's odds will be getting better day by day. Beware though of the 996hp Tropical Low that teases. Ahh but they call them cyclones in Qld dont they. poke
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/12/2010 19:00

Someone mentioned rotation in the CS earlier, can't remember who. please be aware that there is quite a marked upper LOW over the NE Coral Sea at the moment which may give the appearance of a circulation at the surface.

Great to see upper uppers playing ball north of Cairns, just need that easterly upper flow to move a little further southward and then the CQ and NQ coastline can start to pay some attention. At the moment not much chance of a crossing south of Cairns IF anything were to develop.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/12/2010 20:24

There is a nice development in the GOC at the moment.

A nice blob sitting up there need a little bit of watching...

I like to know What the chance of that one moving into thee Queensland coral sea slowly and may develop into a Tropical Cyclone during over the next few more days?

Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/12/2010 20:55

hmm that EC map has it snugged nicely in near the burdiken?
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/12/2010 22:39

SST's are getting waaaay up there now grin
SSt's
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/12/2010 23:10

Originally Posted By: Popeye
Just checking the latest EC charts and I noticed christmas day cyclone potential for the QLD coast. Thought I would throw it in here to get you guys all excited. Something to watch.



LOL anyone who believes anything that far away in a model is just asking for dissapointment, specially from EC Popeye.
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 16/12/2010 23:52

You dont like EC SBT? I personally wont be disappointed. Just like to get you Qlders all worked up into a frenzy lol. Time will tell I suppose. If it continues to show something over the next few updates they are obviously onto something. EC as a model is my preferred one. Not sure for QLD but in WA they are inevitably right or near the mark.
Posted by: nocturnal1

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/12/2010 00:18

'Take your time, cyclones. Take all the time in the world. We don't like you, and we don't want you to form yet, as we're very much unprepared.'

(maybe some reverse psychology will help move things along) wink grin
Posted by: NorthernLights

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/12/2010 00:42

Too True nocturnal...too true...One of my pet hates have been when theres a warning 'cyclone' of sorts and everyone is like...'Ar, It'll never hit us, or it wont come close. Since I have been living in the north in the last 10 years, every single time a low forms in our coral sea i prepare. Inafact, I panick buy to AVOID Paink Buyers!!! I already have 30 litres of UHT milk and an unlimited amount of bum rolls stored just to name the majority..HAA... Still, need to get more in store though...
Posted by: NorthernLights

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/12/2010 00:58

HEY, to Popeye, it made me smile, (at getting our eyes opening), when you sent that EC into our coral sea forum at 25th dec ...Yeah I reckon it will have eyes 'a' opening till that date. I hope nothing nasty comes anybodys way, any where in Australia for that matter, my husband went though Cyclone Tracy at age 11 and it was something he never EVER wants to experience again!!! Merry Christmas and an extremly safe NEW YEAR to everyone on the forum and there families, if i dont post till then...XOXOXOXO
Posted by: NorthernLights

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/12/2010 01:00

Damn my key board for bad typos...damn..lol
Posted by: nocturnal1

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/12/2010 01:15

haha. hey NorthernLights, where can I get me some bum rolls? grin They sound superb!

Yeah I agree. Since becoming a weather nut, I've increasingly become a fan of being prepared. The latest addition to the cyclone kit... a 12-can slab of CHUM for the dog! I'm also going to get some more bottled water tomorrow, among other things. I figure if you gather things gradually, you avoid the rush and always have what you need, no matter what comes up.

Popeye, it will be interesting to watch if a Christmas day cyclone comes to pass... surely SOMETHING will happen in the next week! No, I refuse to get my hopes up. wink
Posted by: NorthernLights

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/12/2010 01:33

Hey nocturnal, i get 3 bags X 18kg of super coat for my two goldens in preparation...gotta be prepared for the non event HERE and the cut off down south...
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/12/2010 06:02

Nitso that circulation you talk about from an upper low would that be at 145E 14.5S you can make out on this

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shnewguinea.html

heading east for Cape Flattery at the moment
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/12/2010 07:55

Originally Posted By: Locke
Just a hint of a LLCC at 15S 155E showing on the IR colorized loop perhaps?


I think the Low Nitso was referring to was in the NE Coral See (about 10s 165E)
What you are seeing is the little eddy/LLCC which Locke referred to a few pages back.

(Page 61)
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/12/2010 16:25

Well Steamy I like my eddy can now be clearly seen on 512 radar from cairns with good rotation with the pressure dropping at Bougainville Reef hard to believe that's all it is ??????.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.95288.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR191.loop.shtml#skip

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shnewguinea.html

Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/12/2010 17:47

And now look at 4.45pm looks nothing like it did two hours ago unbelievable, back to reading and not commenting
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/12/2010 18:44

what about at 15S 162E showing signs of rotation and the one above I mentioned why is the cloud now building up near it if it is only an eddy

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html



Just bored sitting on the net looking at the weather must start to get some lows forming soon with this terrible heat

Posted by: MoonLight

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/12/2010 19:29

Sorry Mad Mick, I've been staring at the screen, willing it to happen, but I can't see rotation. Give it a little while longer methinks smile
Terrible heat indeed, a nice little thunderstorm would be great right now, it was over 35 here today.
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/12/2010 19:51

MoonLight yeah well me thinks I have also been looking to long just recieve a sheet of paper each year from a bloke in Ingham Mario Torriso who predicts the weather last year not so good year before brilliant this year not to bad read on for his December prediction, so this is why I am watching.

DECEMBER
This month will see some tropical lows/cyclones from the Gulf to the Coral Sea pressure gradient is low in density. The weather will be hotter than normal with some heavy rain inland and flooding on the coast.This month could see two cyclones with the first being in the beginning of the month. The second will be around 20th - 31st which will be very dangerous for the east coast. Victoria and New South Wales will have very hot weather as the mercury could reach 45 degrees.
Posted by: Seventh Storm

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/12/2010 20:00

Come on mick, you don't really believe that do you?? I mean terms such as 'flooding on the coast' and 'Vic and NSW will have hot weather' are so generalised. Reminds me of that John Edworthy guy.
Posted by: MikeM

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/12/2010 21:05

Don't think we'll see any cyclones til jan. There will always be things spinning out there - don't get too excited each time this happens, you'll get too dissapointed like i used to. Can't see us getting anymore than 3 to 4 cyclones now the way things are looking. More rain events i'd say.
Posted by: MoonLight

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/12/2010 21:27

Thanks Mad Mick. I have heard Mario can be a bit hit and miss, but that's a great sounding scenario. Well, perhaps not the 'very dangerous' part smile
I think it's a little early to write off the predicted increased cyclone action. I am still crossing my fingers for a great season and looking forward to all of the inevitable posts, come what may smile
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/12/2010 21:32

Seventh Storm some do some don't but two seasons back he was spot on storms to the week and same with the cyclone's hard to do when he makes this up in September here's the other months mind the misspellings I just post it word for word as it is on his sheet.

2011
A CHANGE IN THE PACIFIC COULD BRING A VOLCANIC ERUPTION

JANUARY
This month is unpredictable because of the cold jet stream.The tides will be higher than normal.Some nights will be cold before returning to usual with very hot days.
1st to 15th - Storms from time to time but mostly fine.
15th to 31st Tropical low in the Coral Sea and Gulf producing a lot of rain to a wide area in Queensland which could develop into a cyclone. The South will be very hot with the mercury up to 45 degrees.

FEBRUARY
A lot of humidity will bring very hot weather for the north. The seas will be very hot because of the EL Nina effort flowing into the Coral Sea. Water evaporation will produce a lot of rain which could result in a big flood. The king tide will be higher than normal at the time of the full moon. A tropical low will turn into a cyclone between the 10th and the end of the month.

MARCH
There is a good chance of a sea storm due to a lot of turbulence in the sea from the 1st to the 15th. It is advisable for boats to stay inshore or listen to the weather reports. Around the 15th there could be some heavy rain due to a disturbance in the Coral Sea. From the 15th -31st there will be some fine weather however some storm activity will persist.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/12/2010 23:22

Upper winds are changing. Next week will be the start of the monsoon season for the Nthn Coral Sea. it'll be weak initially but enhanced low level vorticity will begin occuring around mid week next week. All we need after that is for all the stars to align and then we could be in business.

Rotation mentioned earlier at 162E is an Upper LOW. It'll bugger off early next week and then finally the Coral Sea enters an upper Summer pattern.

CMC and EC now develop a tropical LOW in the NE Coral Sea next week (late)
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 17/12/2010 23:25

right between the 20th and the 31st night all
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 18/12/2010 00:31

Damn it, and I'm in Canberra from the 20th - 30th.

Excitement always happens when I'm away grin
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 18/12/2010 00:48

Mad Mick

I have learnt not to get too excited over a eddy/LLCC on the MT or other wise, it is really up to the uppers to play ball before you get a cyclone. The LLCC has to be in an area of upper divergence and there has to be moist air in most layers of the atmosphere, the water vapour sat pic is a good indication of whether there is dry or moist air near the LLCC.



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Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 18/12/2010 18:20

Interesting forecast on BoM's wind charts. On the 2-7 day forecasts, there is a rotating low I believe heading right for Cairns.

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/wind/index.jsp
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 18/12/2010 18:59

Actually Things on that chart it looks to cross the coast right on Hinchinbrook Island on Xmas day as a very weak low.
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 18/12/2010 19:19

Eh, still close enough to give everyone some relief! smile
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 18/12/2010 19:29

Steamy could not believe how fast that eddy got pushed aside so on that chart you show what does the -5 mean and what is the site address for that chart.
Posted by: storm freak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 18/12/2010 19:33

Will be very interesting if ACCESS's 200mb forecast comes off and a low forms. It has a retreating upper trough over western qld with an upper high forming over the Coral Sea. I'm under the impression that this is near perfect outflow for TC in our region and explosive development. I know its along way out and there are other factors but just cant help getting excited lol, Better come or EC is goin down poke. On another note, Check out SST's, I don't remember them being this warm so early.

http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/forecasts/idyoc13.shtml?region=13&forecast=1#
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 18/12/2010 21:57

Yeah Sorry Mad Mick I was a bit vague with the image of the chart. It come s from here CIMSS Tropical Cyclone Page

Click on Eastern Australia - (Red Bottom Left)

It was the upper divergence tab from my limited knowledge the -5 refers to an area of upper convergence, positive numbers are good for cyclone formation, the higher the number the better the upper divergence.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 18/12/2010 22:57

Queensland cyclone update for Queensland
**********************************

This coming up week is going to be very interesting days ahead this is now picking up a Tropical low this one will be coming from the Solomons sea.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

It looks like next weekend we might have a frist Tropical Cyclone been name in the Queensland coral sea hmm a few interesting next few days ahead.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/12/2010 06:25

Latest EC has persisted with a vigorous monsoon trough and associated monsoonal LOW making landfall around Christmas around the Central Coast region. Associated dtrong to gale force NW monsoonal winds coupled with a strong convergence zone south = chance of mahor statewide flooding south of Mackay.
Posted by: Wet Wet Wet

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/12/2010 06:46

Looks to me EC has the LLCC crossing at Ingham. EC’s scenario has similarities to Cyclone Joy in 1990. Although it’s only forecast to be a deep monsoonal low, like Cyclone Joy it’s expected to come in from the northern Coral Sea, make landfall in Herbert and Lower Burdekin Region, resulting in a nice convergence zone near the Central Coast district. After Joy made landfall in 1990, a convergence zone persisted over the Central Coast region for 2 weeks with many locations recording over 2000mm of rain during that period. Fortunately/Unfortunately, this isn’t expected to happen.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/12/2010 06:53

Outlook for Thursday, Friday and Saturday

". . . . By Friday, monsoon trough will slip southwards across the northern tropics. A tropical low will move into the Southern Coral Sea from the NE with rain areas developing about the NE tropical coast. Patchy rain and isolated thunderstorms over most of the eastern interior. Showers and thunderstorms in the west. By Saturday, the tropical low will increase the rainfall on the NE tropical coast with some heavy falls. Little change elsewhere in the state. . . . "

BoM have prob made a slight error by saying southern coral sea - It was likely to mean Northern Coral Sea. regardless - a massive amount of rain is coming.
Posted by: RAINALI

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/12/2010 07:52

Can I ask what the EC is that a lot of you keep referring to?
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/12/2010 07:59

Originally Posted By: RAINALI
Can I ask what the EC is that a lot of you keep referring to?


Link to
EC Model

Here you go Rainali
Posted by: RAINALI

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/12/2010 08:10

Thanks heaps.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/12/2010 09:41

HMMM this looks interesting, it is from the Fiji met and just outside Australian waters.

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 18/0913 UTC 2010 UTC.

LOW L [1006 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 11.7S 160.4E AT 180600 UTC. SLOW
MOVING.
POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30C.

ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED AND REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 24 HRS.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FROM SURFACE TO 700 HPA.

SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER TROUGH IN A
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVING IT
NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS IS LOW.
Posted by: drivenunder

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/12/2010 12:13

What are the other models (other than the EC) saying about a Cyclone in the CS?
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/12/2010 12:29

BOM's ACCESS and GFS models are hinting at a reasonably solid rain area highlighted on their charts coming in from the Coral sea but with no marked LOW as such. CMC model has a little LOW coming in from way out in the general direction aswell.

I personally would keep an eye on the NITSO model over coming days to get a locals perspective of what may happen and an interpretation of what the models are hinting at and if they are on the money or just way off the mark.

Also a variety of others experienced opinions aswell as I know there are a bunch of you crew that are pretty good at reading the situation.
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/12/2010 13:10

More like they have a fair idea of the weather but if they show too much to soon on their charts and the news media gets a hold of it they would make a small low look like Armageddon remember how crazy they went last time one went down the coast evacuations and all.
Posted by: Stevo59

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/12/2010 13:32

The LLCC east of the Solomon Islands seems to be tracking WNW at the moment. I presume this is the tropical low that BoM are talking about in their extended outlook or do they mean another low? There is still moderate wind shear in the area between PNG and the Solomon Islands:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...r&zoom=&time=-1

The wind shear is forecast to increase so not exactly favourable for development:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...t&zoom=&time=-1
Posted by: Cybermouse

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/12/2010 16:36

Since I'm very much a learner here can someone tell me what wind shear means and also when reports say "position poor". I assume they are talking about the position of a low??? confused
Posted by: Afroboy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/12/2010 16:54

Hi Cybermouse. Welcome smile
Here is a link on wind shear and cyclone development:

http://www.wunderground.com/education/shear.asp

And yes, it refers to the positioning of the low.
Posted by: beachcomber

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/12/2010 16:58

Originally Posted By: mad mick
More like they have a fair idea of the weather but if they show too much to soon on their charts and the news media gets a hold of it they would make a small low look like Armageddon remember how crazy they went last time one went down the coast evacuations and all.


Partucually here in the Whitsundays as soon as a Cyclone is mentioned the caravan parks become deserted pretty quickly. I can remember back when ului hit. Everyone just fleed out of the place.
Posted by: Cybermouse

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/12/2010 17:02

Originally Posted By: Afroboy
Hi Cybermouse. Welcome smile
Here is a link on wind shear and cyclone development:

http://www.wunderground.com/education/shear.asp

And yes, it refers to the positioning of the low.


Many thanks Afroboy, seems I have a fair bit to learn. I printed out the link so I can "absorb and inwardly digest" LOL grin
Posted by: Rainy Night

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/12/2010 17:23

Hello, Cypermouse. I think the link posted by Afroboy points you to very comprehensive information about wind shear and development of tropical lows.
Just in case it all seems a little daunting at first, I might try to put it in fewer words:
Yeah, the term "position poor" (and "position fair", "position good") certainly does refer to the positioning of a low, in so much as it indicates the degree of certainty of the position as estimated by the forecasters. The position of almost all tropical lows is only an estimate (except in the rare case where a severe system passes over a weather station) based on satellite (and sometimes radar observations, if it is close to a radar station).
A weak low away out in the coral sea will have its location as "poor", because it does not have a definite satelitte presentation to indicate an exact location. In later stages of development its location may be classifed as "fair" dependent on what the forecaster sees on the satellite image. Then when the system reaches "severe tropical cyclone" status,it will have a clearly defined "eye" on the satellite image which enables more exact location of the centre, so it then referred to as "position good".

Windshear may be either vertical or horizontal, but mostly when we talk about its effect on weahter systems, we mean "vertical windshear" this refers to different direction of wind according to height. If we have strong upper winds blowing from a different direction than the surface winds, we would have strong wind shear which tends to prevent the development of a low into a tropical cyclone.

Hope this helps!
Cheers!
Posted by: Petros

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/12/2010 21:11

Originally Posted By: mad mick

DECEMBER
.... Victoria and New South Wales will have very hot weather as the mercury could reach 45 degrees.


MM - a lot of us down here think that Vic will not see temps above 35C for the whole summer (La Nina). Just letting you know, please keep up your posts/opinions - thats what its all about.
Posted by: storm freak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/12/2010 21:44

Had a read of the Cyclone Larry JCU forum. None of the models were forecasting Larry to become as strong as he did, infact hardly any of the models were actually forecasting larry be a cyclone at all.
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/12/2010 21:50

Hmmmm, what do you reckon Mick?
Posted by: Seventh Storm

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/12/2010 21:53

Hey Storm Freak, can you post a link for that Cyclone Larry JCU forum? Would love to have a read of that.
Posted by: Stevo59

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 19/12/2010 23:50

Well the low near PNG has really weakened over the past few hours. While on the subject, this is not going to be a repeat of 1974 for two reasons: the northern jet stream is in the wrong place and due to this we are not seeing the large siberian highs developing as all the cold weather is much further west (over Europe). This trend is reflected in the poor MJO signal over recent days and also the pathetic monsoon onset over the NT that looked promising at one stage. The current la Nina may well have peaked and the remaining wet season will be mostly average for most of Qld once the sth hemisphere spring upper troughs slack off from next week. In fact we are witnessing the last one coming through over the next day or so, but it will be the last. There is nothing coming behind it, just summer highs until next autumn.
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 00:10

Big call Steve. So no cyclones crossing the QLD coast this season or just the average one in four?
Posted by: MoonLight

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 00:20

Oh no, that is too depressing after such a build up, Stevo! lol
Although possibly good news for our planned camping trip after xmas...
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 07:50

Biggest call ever wink
You cannot write off a wet season when it hasnt really begun.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 07:59

steve has made no mention of the amount of cyclones. its impossible to predict the number and location of any crossings.
steve is saying in his opinion the amount of rainfall predicted this wet wont be as big as we think. it is a big call, but steve has backed up with some reasoning with the comparison to 1974. i hope he is wrong but only time will tell.

the tropical low in the nth coral sea is expected to remain weak. bom predicting a crossing between cardwell and bowen, obviously heavy rains possible south of the system.
Posted by: MikeM

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 08:15

67 Pages and not one cyclone, not bad smile
Posted by: townsvillestorms

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 08:39

I don't usually make comments on here but this year has been very different in terms of rainfall versus the average with many places receiving record rainfall and highest rainfall records in over 10 years. As for this weekend with regards to what happens with this low in the Coral Sea? A coastal crossing near Cardwell southwards to Mackay looks more likely. As for predicting what this 2010/11 wet season will be? wait and see what happens.

Regards Shane.

www.townsvillestorms.com
Posted by: shama

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 14:56

Why does BOM only have the following if there is (and they show it on their 4-day maps) a potential low forming? :

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Sunday the 19th of December 2010 and valid until end of Wednesday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
There are no significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop
over the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Monday: Very low
Tuesday: Very low
Wednesday:Very low
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 15:17

Because once there is any hint of a cyclone forming, the media are all over it like ants and sugar. They don't want to start alarming people just yet if nothing happens.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 15:18

I guess a low of only 1003Hp isn't significant in their eyes
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 15:32

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Monday the 20th of December 2010 and valid until end of
Thursday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
A weak low southeast of Vanatinai [360km southeast of P.N.G] is forecast to
remain weak as it moves west. At this stage the weak low is not expected to
develop into a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday: Very low
Wednesday:Very low
Thursday: Very low
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 15:35

Oops wrong thread
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 15:54

the MJO is weak because of the strong La Nina influence, and the BOM are predicting an increase in monsoonal activity next week.
Posted by: MoonLight

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 16:37

Outlook for Friday, Saturday and Sunday

The tropical low is forecast to approach the central coast with rain areas about eastern districts south of about Cairns and moderate to heavy falls possible south of about Bowen. The low will likely cross the east coast as a weak system on Saturday between about Cardwell and St Lawrence and continue to bring widespread rain to eastern and southeastern Queensland through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue in the northern tropics and becoming fine in the southwest.

Sounds nice, pity we can't nudge it a little further north... wink
Posted by: shama

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 17:36

Thanks everyone for clarifying - good to see it is now mentioned in the updated outlook (thx MS!)

Why will it remain weak, or more specifically what would need to change the most in order for it to intensify?
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 19:19

so what are the coordinates for it at the moment please looks like something better out near 170E
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 20:42

Originally Posted By: shama
Thanks everyone for clarifying - good to see it is now mentioned in the updated outlook (thx MS!)

Why will it remain weak, or more specifically what would need to change the most in order for it to intensify?


Hi Shama. First thoughts after looking at the 850-200mb shear forecast would be the wind shear, although looking at the
850-500mb forecast it appears to be borderline for development.
Also it appears that in the near future any development would be hindered by poor outflow to the SW of the system.

SST's certainly don't play any part in stopping it.

Someone please correct me if I am wrong
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 21:17

This is what the BoM think the Queensland croal sea Tropical low will do in the coming up end of the week.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

About Saturday or Sunday outlook when it's get update should be interesting.
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 21:33

how many lows come in from the coral sea and remained a low would not be to many ??????????
Posted by: storm freak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 22:46

That is quite a fast rotation out near 170e and steaming due west quickly. If it continues on its current track and at the same speed it should be in our waters sometime tomorrow. Its heading into an area of strong wind shear hence the majority of the convection firing up on its eastern flank. If the llcc can make it through to the other side it will be the one that crosses the coast.
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 23:02

Hey storm, is there a map or image you can direct on this?
Posted by: Gomo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 23:08

If you go to the Tropical Weather Links on the Forum openning page you can find it there. Easy.
Posted by: storm freak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 23:10

Sorry should have posted the link... Look just west of 170e at 10 south http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 23:45

Thanks Storm. So you reckon this low spinning up at 170e (and this truly shows my ignorance) can punch through? How? Does it simply shovel the near low north or feed off it?
Posted by: storm freak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 20/12/2010 23:58

When I said make it through I was referring to the strip of strong windshear located around 160east. I'm not the best person to explain but from my very basic understanding windshear prevents convection from being maintained in a cyclonic system as the convection is basically ripped apart by the difference in wind speed and direction at different levels of the amtmosphere. LLCC stands for lower level cloud circulation and when lows/cyclones move into a location where windshear is high (above 20 knots) the low level cloud circulation becomes exposed and decelopment ceases. However,if the llcc is still existent and it moves into a more favourable environment there is a chance that it may redevelop.
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 00:06

My God... I actually understand that... thanks
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 08:03

The Rotation near 170E is an upper level low, these rarely turn into cyclones but not unprecedented.

Cyclones prefer Low Level Circulation (LLCC) and Upper Divergence (Upper Level High)




The LLCC that EC and BOM are watching is just W of 160E



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Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 11:41

That low that BoM are referring to has made it past the bad wind shear area and is moving into VERY favourable conditions for development all the way through to the coast from Cairns North.

Of more interest to me is the very nice cloud formations at around 165E-9S. All the conditions are there for this one to explode. Hopefully the Easterly uppers extend this far out to push it to the CS.
Posted by: Chookie

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 11:48

can some one plz tell me where i can see these maps? i am very interested but have no idea where to look. Thanks smile
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 11:51

Originally Posted By: Chookie
can some one plz tell me where i can see these maps? i am very interested but have no idea where to look. Thanks smile


Hey Chookie, this is one of the ones I use more often.
Posted by: Chookie

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 11:54

thanks heaps TC Poncho smile
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 12:00

Originally Posted By: Chookie
can some one plz tell me where i can see these maps? i am very interested but have no idea where to look. Thanks smile


The Maps which I have posted on the previous page Chookie are from Weatherzone Bom 3-Day

Use the drop down box in the Middle at the top to choose wind diagrams.
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 12:06

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone#Mechanic For those who are interested in how a cyclone forms this link has a reasonably good description on how and where cyclones/typoons/hurricanes form and why.
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 12:07

Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
That low that BoM are referring to has made it past the bad wind shear area and is moving into VERY favourable conditions for development all the way through to the coast from Cairns North.

Of more interest to me is the very nice cloud formations at around 165E-9S. All the conditions are there for this one to explode. Hopefully the Easterly uppers extend this far out to push it to the CS.


The Rotation at 165E is the upper low I refer to on the previous page. It is unlikely to explode.

However this upper low and the upper trough to the SW of the LLCC (at 158E 12-13s Position poor) may help the LLCC develope by supplying the low with increased outflow to the SE and NW
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 12:11

Tropical cyclogenesis Or how a cyclone develops and the factors required for that development.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclogenesis

Requirements for tropical cyclone formation

There are six main requirements for tropical cyclogenesis:
1) sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures,
2) atmospheric instability,
3) high humidity in the lower to middle levels of the troposphere,
4) enough Coriolis force to sustain a low pressure center,
5) a preexisting low level focus or disturbance,
6) and low vertical wind shear.

While these conditions are necessary for tropical cyclone formation, they do not guarantee that a tropical cyclone will form.
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 13:45

I was not far off with co-ordinates

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA 10
NORTH EASTERN AREA EQUATOR TO 28S, 142E TO 170E
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE
FOR 24 HOURS FROM 2300UTC 20 DECEMBER 2010

PART 1 WARNINGS
Nil.

PART 2 SITUATION
At 201800UTC.
Weak tropical low 1005 hPa near 12S157E, little movement expected. Trough near
19S152E to 28S159E, moving NE to 18S148E to 28S164E at 202300UTC and remaining
stationary and weakening after 210900UTC.

PART 3 FORECAST
North of 15S.
Clockwise winds 5/10 knots within 120NM of low. Variable winds 5/15 knots
elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
Posted by: Chookie

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 13:46

I am not sure if the LOW is going to go far south as they think. i still think it my come up this way a bit more.
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 13:52

RE Low at 12S 157E

There are six main requirements for tropical cyclogenesis:
1) sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures, - Yes Check
2) atmospheric instability, - Not good over the LLCC but improving to the West
3) high humidity in the lower to middle levels of the troposphere, - Dry Air to the East & Moist Air to the West , so improving.
4) enough Coriolis force to sustain a low pressure center, - This could be the biggest inhibiting factor. NW Flow into the LLCC is poor.
5) a preexisting low level focus or disturbance, - Check
6) and low vertical wind shear. - Check
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 13:54

Originally Posted By: Steamy
Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
That low that BoM are referring to has made it past the bad wind shear area and is moving into VERY favourable conditions for development all the way through to the coast from Cairns North.

Of more interest to me is the very nice cloud formations at around 165E-9S. All the conditions are there for this one to explode. Hopefully the Easterly uppers extend this far out to push it to the CS.


The Rotation at 165E is the upper low I refer to on the previous page. It is unlikely to explode.

However this upper low and the upper trough to the SW of the LLCC (at 158E 12-13s Position poor) may help the LLCC develope by supplying the low with increased outflow to the SE and NW


Yeah but there is building upper divergance around the area @ 165E. Upper divergance is one of the main drivers that forms surface lows.
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 14:11

TC Poncho I have to disagree
see below the increasing divergence is to the West and East of the Rotation. And no divergence over the rotation.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

From Wikipedia

Upper level types
[edit] TUTT cell
Main article: Upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex
Under specific circumstances, upper cold lows can break off from the base of the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT), which is located mid-ocean in the Northern Hemisphere during the summer months. These upper tropospheric cyclonic vortices, also known as TUTT cells or TUTT lows, usually move slowly from east-northeast to west-southwest, and generally do not extend below 20,000 feet in altitude. A weak inverted surface trough within the trade wind is generally found underneath them, and they may also be associated with broad areas of high-level clouds. Downward development results in an increase of cumulus clouds and the appearance of a surface vortex. In rare cases, they become warm-core, resulting in the vortex becoming a tropical cyclone. Upper cyclones and upper troughs which trail tropical cyclones can cause additional outflow channels and aid in their intensification process. Developing tropical disturbances can help create or deepen upper troughs or upper lows in their wake due to the outflow jet emanating from the developing tropical disturbance/cyclone.[47][48]
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 15:31

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Tuesday the 21st of December 2010 and valid until end of
Friday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
A weak low over the northern Coral Sea [southeast of P.N.G.] is forecast to move
westwards closer to the north Queensland coast by Friday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday:Very low
Thursday: Very low
Friday: Low
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 15:39

Much like everyone else, I've been watching with great interest as this little fledgling LOW moves slowly westwards. There is huge model variance of whether it (A) exists, (B) develops, (C) where it moves

the BoM is placing all of its eggs in EC's basket at this point in time. There's a lot of reasons why in the longer term if it actually maintains a LLCC it may develop further and thus I believe that is why the BoM have slightly elevated its potential for development at the three day mark to low. However it's so weak right now it has winds of about 5-10 knots around its LLCC. If it survives and remains over water, perhaps things get interesting in 3 days time.
Posted by: storm freak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 15:39

For what its worth, NOGAPS is forecasting this system to maintain its westaward track crossing the coast betwen cooktown and cape flattery.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 15:43

Originally Posted By: Steamy
TC Poncho I have to disagree
see below the increasing divergence is to the West and East of the Rotation. And no divergence over the rotation.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

From Wikipedia

Upper level types
[edit] TUTT cell
Main article: Upper tropospheric cyclonic vortex
Under specific circumstances, upper cold lows can break off from the base of the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT), which is located mid-ocean in the Northern Hemisphere during the summer months. These upper tropospheric cyclonic vortices, also known as TUTT cells or TUTT lows, usually move slowly from east-northeast to west-southwest, and generally do not extend below 20,000 feet in altitude. A weak inverted surface trough within the trade wind is generally found underneath them, and they may also be associated with broad areas of high-level clouds. Downward development results in an increase of cumulus clouds and the appearance of a surface vortex. In rare cases, they become warm-core, resulting in the vortex becoming a tropical cyclone. Upper cyclones and upper troughs which trail tropical cyclones can cause additional outflow channels and aid in their intensification process. Developing tropical disturbances can help create or deepen upper troughs or upper lows in their wake due to the outflow jet emanating from the developing tropical disturbance/cyclone.[47][48]



Hi Steamy. Sorry, I wasnt referring to the upper cloud circulation, just the cloud formation in that general area. Based on the image you have inserted, my area of interest would be squarly over the 170E-10S area not the circulation(s) about 165E-6S. There were a few nice compact blobs showing signs of life over the 173E-5S area this morning which is also under the area of divergence.

I think the one at 165E and the one at 170E are two different systems altogether. Although I feel the one at 165E is driving a portion of the Divergance for the area at 170E and you may well be right about the one at 165E being a TuTT cell.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 15:50

Originally Posted By: storm freak
For what its worth, NOGAPS is forecasting this system to maintain its westaward track crossing the coast betwen cooktown and cape flattery.


If this happens I may just have nailed it with this years trop comp!!

Originally Posted By: Raindammit
1. Darwin Storm: September 30th
2. Port Hedland 40°C: October 9th
3. First Cyclone: December 24th
4. Area Forms: Northern Region
5. Lowest Pressure: 975hPa
6. Townsville 50mm: December 30th
7. Monsoon Arrives: December 10th
8. First Landfall: December 26th
9. Landfall Location: Cooktown
10. Category at Landfall: 2
11. Summer soi: +15.2
12. Cairns Rainfall: 2290mm
13. Highest Broome Temperature: 44.1°C
14. Most Intense Cyclone: Vince
15. Total Cyclones: 9
16. Cyclone Landfalls: 5
17. Wettest Location: Townsville
18. Daily Rainfall: 244.8mm
Posted by: storm freak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 15:51

What do you reckon for movement Nitso? You with the Bom? For obvious reasons I'm hoping that it stays north crossing the coast Cairns City on Boxing day. Mainly because I love extreme weather but also because I HATE boxing day sales and have to work in a shopping centre frown
Yup I'd say you would take the lead with that.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 15:56

Looks like BOM have changed it's forecast for the crpssing point on it's 4 day forecast here Thats the first big change now we just have to hope the forecast to remain as a low is wrong and we are in business
Posted by: adam17

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 16:14

That is a good sign.. Have they changed it from any previous forecast? There was talk about the whitsunday region earlier.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 16:18

Originally Posted By: storm freak
What do you reckon for movement Nitso? You with the Bom? For obvious reasons I'm hoping that it stays north crossing the coast Cairns City on Boxing day. Mainly because I love extreme weather but also because I HATE boxing day sales and have to work in a shopping centre frown
Yup I'd say you would take the lead with that.


Here are my thoughts right now storm freak:

Mid level ridge holds firm and guides this one west to wsw over the next couple of days. then the trough system begins to exert a SE influence on motion however the easterly low level flow doesn't weaken too much and the trough system remains stationary and reasobaly weak. So a vector push towards the SSW or SW is likely (the poleward shift is due to competing wsw and SSE steering influences with the wsw steering influence slightly weakening for a couple of days around Christmas) as it approaches the coast and the movement should slow (this will enhance rainfalls anywhere south of the core LLCC). A new mid and surface ridge pushing in from the SW around Christmas or Boxing day from a very strong HIGH pushing into the Bight should then result in a renewed surge line (with even more enhanced rainfall south of the system)and a strong push towards the west and the LOW will make landfall and then accelerate westwards.

That's my read on it right now. It's still too weak and too far away to suggest a crossing point accurately but my thinking is north of Mackay. The interesting part of this whole scenario is how it will react to enhanced poleward outflow from the trough west of it and the renewed SE surge south of it. If it remains over water around Boxing day, things will get very interesting I think.

Also ACCESS is predicting that the trough has no effect on it and it hits the coast around Cape Melville, I'm not sure about that scenario happening, it seems unlikely to hit that far north.
Posted by: beachcomber

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 16:23

Originally Posted By: nitso
Originally Posted By: storm freak
What do you reckon for movement Nitso? You with the Bom? For obvious reasons I'm hoping that it stays north crossing the coast Cairns City on Boxing day. Mainly because I love extreme weather but also because I HATE boxing day sales and have to work in a shopping centre frown
Yup I'd say you would take the lead with that.


Here are my thoughts right now storm freak:

Mid level ridge holds firm and guides this one west to wsw over the next couple of days. then the trough system begins to exert a SE influence on motion however the easterly low level flow doesn't weaken too much and the trough system remains stationary and reasobaly weak. So a vector push towards the SSW or SW is likely (the poleward shift is due to competing wsw and SSE steering influences with the wsw steering influence slightly weakening for a couple of days around Christmas) as it approaches the coast and the movement should slow (this will enhance rainfalls anywhere south of the core LLCC). A new mid and surface ridge pushing in from the SW around Christmas or Boxing day from a very strong HIGH pushing into the Bight should then result in a renewed surge line (with even more enhanced rainfall south of the system)and a strong push towards the west and the LOW will make landfall and then accelerate westwards.

That's my read on it right now. It's still too weak and too far away to suggest a crossing point accurately but my thinking is north of Mackay. The interesting part of this whole scenario is how it will react to enhanced poleward outflow from the trough west of it and the renewed SE surge south of it. If it remains over water around Boxing day, things will get very interesting I think.

Also ACCESS is predicting that the trough has no effect on it and it hits the coast around Cape Melville, I'm not sure about that scenario happening, it seems unlikely to hit that far north.


So if this is true. Where in the firing line Nitso?. Oh man looks worse than first thought.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 16:26

Sorry Beachcomber I meant north of mackay as in mackay to Cooktown, not 'just' north of mackay.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 21:52

the navy site have an interest in the area near the Solomons listed as 94P invest.

Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 22:13

Did any one here watch the Townsville loacl Win News Tonight about the Queensland coral sea Tropical low did they talking about it just want to know that was all I just miss out on watching it can they put it on here that would be nice if some can do that for me?? smile
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 23:17

I best tips is if this Tropical low develop a little more over night and into the morning again there well could be our frist Tropical Cyclone Watch of the 20010/2011 Queensland Tropical Cyclone Season who know just watch this sapce!!!
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 21/12/2010 23:18

WoW!!! 166E-9S is looking fricken awesome!! That has organised itself very quickly. It even has a poleward outflow!!! This area is definitely separate from that other rotation earlier.

Windshear looks OK, TPW looks OK, SST up there I imagine would be 32+, West steering winds...etc etc
I reckon BoM could have a TC on their hands in a day or two at this rate.
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 01:00

Funnily enough the papers tomorrow will predict there is a 20 per cent chance the low will spin up to a TC and that it will cross near Cardwell as daylight breaks on xmas day. 60kph winds either way. Wet for sure. As for what is coming re Poncho's predictions... any thoughts.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 01:04

lol, as long as they dont quote me in the paper thats fine eek
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 01:06

It's a very disorganised cluster of cells at the moment, but there's more convection happening over that one than the one heading our way. Conditions are good for development over Poncho's system, but it is still very early days. Perhaps it's worth keeping an eye on but it's still quite a few days from forming into anything meaningful. Watch for convection to explode around it overnight (it's already happening) that's quite normal. The test always comes during the afternoons and evenings to see whether that cluster of storms can maintain themselves for a couple of days. If they can, then perhaps in 2 days time it'll be worth paying more attention to. With a new mid level ridge forming over the Coral Sea in the medium to long term (next week) there's a fair chance that it'll move west for a long way IF it develops further.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 01:11

thats the urinal effect nitso? overnight convection.
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 01:15

Trust me, they won't
Posted by: Blowin Bowen

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 05:58

What's with this prediction for Sunday ?

Sunday

Is that where the low will be or is it a new one ?

Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 06:23

Thats a seperate low forming in the gulf. It also lokks as though there will be one crossing QLD coast between cairns and mackay and one over in WA as well. Looks like a wet Xmas
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 07:24

latest high seas forecast,
Almost stationary weak monsoon trough from 15S145E, to weak low 1005 hPa near
12S156E, to 10S160E to Eq169E.
BOM still giving this low a wideberth in regards to possible crossing location, but still seem certain the best rains will be the central and capricornia coasts, both of which are already very, very saturated.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 07:25

And then rainfall will be localised around the monsoonal low on saturday, so interesting times ahead.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 07:25

Possibly the low intensifies right before landfall.
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 08:00

Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
WoW!!! 166E-9S is looking fricken awesome!! That has organised itself very quickly. It even has a poleward outflow!!! This area is definitely separate from that other rotation earlier.

Windshear looks OK, TPW looks OK, SST up there I imagine would be 32+, West steering winds...etc etc
I reckon BoM could have a TC on their hands in a day or two at this rate.


Still not convinced TC Poncho
It is still in the area of that upper low, and I cannot see any hint of Low Level Circulation on the charts or CIMSS but you know what they say If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck then it is probably a duck smile Here’s to hoping
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 08:10

It's looks like later in the week or the weekend we might get our frist Tropical Cyclone watch of the 2010/2011 Queensland Tropical Cyclone Season the develop Tropical low moved cloeser to us who know just have to have and see watch this sapce!!!
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 12:30

Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
thats the urinal effect nitso? overnight convection.


Hmm won't the trough lollies have a slowing effect then? wink

I think the word you are looking for is Diurnal

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diurnal

The wet looks like raingasming all over north Queensland in the next 24/48 hours but apart from teh wandering low there doesn't look like too much else to get excited about for the next few days.

Posted by: shama

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 12:33

CM is already getting in on the act - headline on the website says "North Qld on Cyclone Watch"

They then go on in the actual article to say

"A tropical low heading for the central Queensland coast is expected to cross the coast between Cardwell and Mackay, bringing more rain to already flooded areas.

There is a small chance the low will become a weak tropical cyclone, but it will bring heavy rain to Queensland coastal areas between Townsville and Gladstone by Friday."
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 13:12

"Oh yes I will survive"
Posted by: weather crazy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 13:29

This is so interesting to read all of your thoughts and predictions. I think I have been converted from an interested reader of these forums to an absolute addict... lol... Can someone please explain what LLCC is?
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 13:41

Originally Posted By: weather crazy
This is so interesting to read all of your thoughts and predictions. I think I have been converted from an interested reader of these forums to an absolute addict... lol... Can someone please explain what LLCC is?


LLCC = Low Level Circulation Centre
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 13:50

CM can predict what they like but it isn't offical until the good old work experience lad at BoM says it is one. Seeing as they (BoM) haven't updated the cyclone outlook, as shown below, then any talk of a cyclone is just so much conjecture.



http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/ No current warnings - not even a cyclone watch has been issued yet.



IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Tuesday the 21st of December 2010 and valid until end of
Friday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
A weak low over the northern Coral Sea [southeast of P.N.G.] is forecast to move
westwards closer to the north Queensland coast by Friday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday:Very low
Thursday: Very low
Friday: Low

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day:
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 13:51

Check this out BOM have taken the other low off the Map and now have a low at 160E near the convection TC Poncho has been following.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: beachcomber

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 13:53

So this will be a none event. Great one BOM. Thanks for stuffing up our christmas.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 13:56

Originally Posted By: beachcomber
So this will be a none event. Great one BOM. Thanks for stuffing up our christmas.



Originally Posted By: beachcomber
So if this is true. Where in the firing line ?. Oh man looks worse than first thought.


Make up your mind!
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 13:57

Originally Posted By: Sir BoabTree
CM can predict what they like but it isn't offical until the good old work experience lad at BoM says it is one. Seeing as they (BoM) haven't updated the cyclone outlook, as shown below, then any talk of a cyclone is just so much conjecture.



http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/ No current warnings - not even a cyclone watch has been issued yet.



IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Tuesday the 21st of December 2010 and valid until end of
Friday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
A weak low over the northern Coral Sea [southeast of P.N.G.] is forecast to move
westwards closer to the north Queensland coast by Friday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday:Very low
Thursday: Very low
Friday: Low

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day:
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone


LOL, its not in australian waters yet hence its not in their warning page. Plus this is yesterdays statement. Also, this could just sit up there slow moving for a week or so with no threat to the coast.

Im not saying it is a cyclone but I think it stands a good chance of developing into one. Theres not even a LLCC there yet either. Im just saying I wouldnt write it off, even the navy site is watching this area. Most conditions are favourable. Can you state why you think it wont develop please?
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 14:01

Originally Posted By: Steamy
Check this out BOM have taken the other low off the Map and now have a low at 160E near the convection TC Poncho has been following.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Nah, I would say they are having problems locating it as most of that area is imbeded in the monsoon i.e. position poor.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 14:01

Geez beachcomber - give it a chance champion. The whole thing appears to be re-organising. Nothing has changed mate. Just be patient. . . things will happen. Christmas is still almost 72 hours away. In an active monsoon trough and weak LOWS all over the place that 72 hours is an absolute eternity meteorologically. This is why I don't agree with the BoM forecasting out to 4 days in North Queensland in the wet season, so much can change. All I can say is our local atmosphere is getting set up for a big one, it just needs a trigger. Once it gets that, be it a low or a trough or a TC. Someone is really gonna cop it, whether that's you no one can say, even the BoM can't say for sure just yet.

You can't just hang on every forecast or every new chart. Patience patience patience
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 14:36

Ahh Love it. You guys have the early season drooling coming from your mouths like we have had over here in the west. The waiting game is so frustrating but so exciting too. Good luck to you guys and hope it develops into something exciting. The potential forecasted rainfall from it makes it an interesting event already.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 14:39

I am with you there. smile wink
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 15:35

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Wednesday the 22nd of December 2010 and valid until end
of Saturday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
A weak low over the northern Coral Sea, east of Papua New Guinea, is forecast to
move in a west southwest direction towards the north Queensland coast over the
next few days. The most likely scenario is that the system will remain as a
monsoon low as the monsoon trough establishes itself in the region by the
weekend.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday: Very low
Friday: Low
Saturday: Low
Posted by: RadioBoi1980

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 15:48

Originally Posted By: Popeye
Ahh Love it. You guys have the early season drooling coming from your mouths like we have had over here in the west. The waiting game is so frustrating but so exciting too. Good luck to you guys and hope it develops into something exciting. The potential forecasted rainfall from it makes it an interesting event already.


Popeye your speaking as we have never had a TC heheheh - we are Cyclone Tarts in CQ/NQ... Hehehe all the best to y WA folk to
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 16:15

NOAA 10AM co-ordinates:

15.0S 154.7E Max winds 15 knots wrapping around the centre of the LOW. Surface Pressure 1002.0mb

Steering flow is pushing it slightly north of west, however it will want to shift poleward and therefore the direction of movement over the next few hours will be almost dead west (or maybe just marginally south of dead west) at around 7 knots (12km/hr)

NOAA have been having trouble placing it having it at around 8S 162E yesterday. But at least today, they have found a LLCC with an associated circular wind field wrapping around it albeit a very weak one.

It is located in a region of very weak VWS and certainly has the potential to develop over the next 24 hours.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 16:28

What the chance ones this developing Tropical low develop into a Tropical Cyclone by Friday or over the weekend that what that what I think any way?

What the chance of the Queensland coral sea Tropical low developing into a cat 1 Tropical Cyclone or a cat2 Tropical Cyclone by Friday night or over the weekend?

Just need a little bit of a cyclone update for Queensland would be nice thanks.

Things are looking very good here at the moment.


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 16:32

im still watching my area at 168E-7.5S.
I reckon that other one won't deepen much as predicted. It looks to be more of a rain generator than potential for a cyclone.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 16:45

cant say I agree with the latest positioning from RAMMB. Thats a huge jump!!!
Posted by: Sunny Showers

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 17:20

JTWC has also backed off a little as far a the TC devel, with the 0006Z update

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 17:22

did they show something there originally?
Posted by: chestr

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 17:26

Not that i recall. I've been checking twice a day.
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 17:27

168E-7.5S is looking good on the MTSAT loop, tho this isnt the same formation bom is talking about tho is it ? http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
Posted by: MikeM

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 17:40

As i commented ages ago, 76 pages and no cyclone. There won't be any til january for the CS
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 17:44

mikeM you are the grinch
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 17:45

Originally Posted By: reezy
168E-7.5S is looking good on the MTSAT loop, tho this isnt the same formation bom is talking about tho is it ? http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

Your right there reezy. A different formation.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 17:47

Originally Posted By: MikeM
As i commented ages ago, 76 pages and no cyclone. There won't be any til january for the CS

:)January is only what, 9-10 days away.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 17:48

Originally Posted By: MikeM
As i commented ages ago, 76 pages and no cyclone. There won't be any til january for the CS


That's quite ok Mike no one is disagreeing with you just yet. However I feel this is the place to discuss the developing monsoonal LOW. Too many times I have seen these embedded LOWS develop in the space of 12 - 24 hours when they were never expected to do so.
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 17:50

than where is the one bom's talking about ?
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 18:04

this one here at around 160E
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 18:42

Thanks for post that there that was very helpfully mate.

Well it's is now a 1003 hectoPascals the Tropical low need a little bit more watching and keeping a eye on as well.

It's is looking very good development on this web sites as well with that Tropical low at the moment here the link again.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 19:21

Ahh Looks to me another race is on WA formation Vs QLD formation. WA one is up in the air as much as the QLD one in regards to whether it will form or not. Exciting times on both sides of the continent in the lead up to XMAS and NEW YEARS. cheers
Posted by: windwanderer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 19:54

i am wondering what the thoughts are about the trough to the north. looking at the maps i just can't see how anything could develop. then again i probably am not armed with all the facts. problem as i see it is there aren't any NW winds feeding into it to help spin it up. maybe once the northern trough moves along thingswill improve?

Posted by: windwanderer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 20:11

oops, wrong image.

Posted by: MikeM

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 20:22

No i'm not a grinch, but realist, come on guys, an embedded low dosen't mean a cyclone, your stressing yourselves out
Posted by: RadioBoi1980

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 20:25

Originally Posted By: MikeM
No i'm not a grinch, but realist, come on guys, an embedded low dosen't mean a cyclone, your stressing yourselves out


Not stressed out- most wanna chase and watch it grow! More hope than stress!
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 20:35

Originally Posted By: MikeM
No i'm not a grinch, but realist, come on guys, an embedded low dosen't mean a cyclone, your stressing yourselves out
whats your problem ? i realy dont under stand your point
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 20:39

mike is saying that not every low that forms will become a cyclone.
and really, the models arent interested in developing this low, the bom arent interested and therefore
im not either. if this low brings in some rain to kick off the monsoon then im happy with.
but it never hurts to keep an eye on things, there have been plenty of low that have bombed overnight
and formed into cyclones before, i just cant see it happening here either.

latest positioning -
At 220600UTC.
Almost stationary weak monsoon trough from 12S143E, to weak low [1001 hPa] near
10S157E, to 07S170E.


Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 20:44

Originally Posted By: windwanderer
i am wondering what the thoughts are about the trough to the north. looking at the maps i just can't see how anything could develop. then again i probably am not armed with all the facts. problem as i see it is there aren't any NW winds feeding into it to help spin it up. maybe once the northern trough moves along thingswill improve?



I'm no expert, but i was assuming the monsoon lower convergence provides the northerly component, as the area I am looking at sits to the north of the monsoon trough.

BTW that map looks to be a couple of days old too.
Posted by: windwanderer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 21:11

yep my mistake poncho, i copied the wrong link and then couldn't figure out how to edit my post so i posted the image i meant below my original post to try and clarify.

unless i'm reading things incorrectly there doesn't seem to be any NW convergence east of 150E at any level upper or lower.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 21:13

what is causing the rather large eddie spanning from Cooktown to Townsville atm?
Looks like its producing a lot of rain and spilling it back around itself onto the coast.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 21:25

Originally Posted By: windwanderer
yep my mistake poncho, i copied the wrong link and then couldn't figure out how to edit my post so i posted the image i meant below my original post to try and clarify.

unless i'm reading things incorrectly there doesn't seem to be any NW convergence east of 150E at any level upper or lower.

lol thats cool. I was thinking it is coming from the monsoon trough spanning from the Indian Ocean to the SouthWest Pacific meandering around the 10S Latitude. Lower convergence along the trough, northerly winds to the north of the trough and southerly winds to the south, both with local variation around land masses etc

Just my guess, like I said, I'm no expert though.
Posted by: windwanderer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 21:32

agree about the trough position, i just can't see a map that shows lower level NW, seems that the uppers are NW over qld though.

ecmwf has NW winds kicking in around xmas day.
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 21:40

whats the best map for the mid-uppers ?
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 21:55

CIMSS 4PM chart shows a rapidly deteriorating environment around this weak LOW at 154E. Perhaps a new one will develop along that trough line. Vorticity maximum was just south of the south-eastern tip of PNG. A new vorticity maximum has popped up near 8S 162E over the last 12 hours.

Can't say our little friend will survive at 15S 154E, there will likely be a new centre by 10PM. But where will it pop up I wonder?
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 21:57

[quo
Originally Posted By: nitso
CIMSS 4PM chart shows a rapidly deteriorating environment around this weak LOW at 154E. Perhaps a new one will develop along that trough line. Vorticity maximum was just south of the south-eastern tip of PNG. A new vorticity maximum has popped up near 8S 162E over the last 12 hours.

Can't say our little friend will survive at 15S 154E, there will likely be a new centre by 10PM. But where will it pop up I wonder?
how do you find this out !? what maps are you looking at ?
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 22:05

Originally Posted By: windwanderer
agree about the trough position, i just can't see a map that shows lower level NW, seems that the uppers are NW over qld though.

ecmwf has NW winds kicking in around xmas day.


Im not 100% sure on this but, I think once a disturbance gets lower than 10S, the earths rotation will provide the necessary energy/momentum to spin up a cyclone.
Posted by: Steven

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 22:12

The Corolis effect is more pronounced at locations of more than 10 degrees away from the equator. This affects Typhoons/Hurricanes in the Northern Hemisphere and Cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere.
Posted by: windwanderer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 22:36

thanks tc and poncho,

reezy, maps are at http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/

click on the bottom right area near australia. it's interesting that shear is rapidly dropping over tc ponchos's watch area. hmm,,, thinking a little harder seems a lot of boxes are being ticked on the cimss site.
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 22:42

is the shear dropping good ?
Posted by: windwanderer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 22:45

i believe that wind shear needs to be less than 20 knots. more than that is considered poor conditions for development.
Posted by: storm freak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 23:07

Nitso when you say deteriorating, do you mean in a good or bad way for the low to develop?
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 23:12

Here is a very solid prediction that may surprise. The low will cross the coast between Innisfail and Cairns very early on xmas day.
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 23:13

It will go north at crossing... the weather will hit hardest between there and Mackay
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 23:15

Originally Posted By: storm freak
Nitso when you say deteriorating, do you mean in a good or bad way for the low to develop?


Bad way as in the environment just got worse so the LOW would have weakened.
frown

Never mind it was only very weak, I'm sure with the vorticity around, a new one will spin up in the next few hours.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 23:16

Hi reezy. From my understanding, the more the difference in wind speed & direction between the different heights in the atmosphere(wind shear. Apparently resultant poleward windshear doesn't effect it so much though), the less efficient it is for the system to raise the warm air and moisture up through the layers for it to vent to allow more fuel (warm air and moisture) to follow and keep the system going.
Depending on what is happening internally, the system will either a) choke itself by not allowing enough outflow, or b) due to the inefficiencies, the system will require more energy to keep it producing the same output(inefficient engine) and if SST's are borderline or if it is battling some other inhibiting factor, the system will weaken.

i.e. more shear is bad and less shear means more stable vertical air flow which is good grin
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 23:22

It has shown signs of weakening (the low, not the Solomons) Nitso. What of the more northern crossing?
Re Poncho's theory certain large organisations are running away from an opinion.
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 23:24

thanks poncho that was really helpful smile
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 23:47

Latest update from NOAA

New location of LOW

10PM QLD time
12.5S 157.0E Max intensity 14 knot winds well to the south of the LLCC. Pressure 1003.5
Wind shear has jumped to 20knots in the past 12 hours and this will limit vertical development for the next few hours. Also drier air has pushed in to where the LOW from earlier today was located. And finally there is no real northerly wind component around it.

Basically this LOW is so weak it keeps getting re-positioned every few hours.
Posted by: storm freak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 22/12/2010 23:50

Hopefully shear decreases in the morning. Should it decrease as the mid level ridge strengthens?
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/12/2010 00:01

LOL shouldnt bom's latest mslp map have been out half an hour ago?
Posted by: NorthernLights

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/12/2010 00:03

Hey Nitso, Where you say,"Never mind it was only very weak, I'm sure with the vorticity around, a new one will spin up in the next few hours.", are you saying somthing 'May' spin up in the next few hours to perhaps higher "LOW" intensity?
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/12/2010 00:13

Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
LOL shouldnt bom's latest mslp map have been out half an hour ago?

ran out of time to edit. I was going to say that it does look very complex out there at the moment however.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/12/2010 00:18

Originally Posted By: NorthernLights
Hey Nitso, Where you say,"Never mind it was only very weak, I'm sure with the vorticity around, a new one will spin up in the next few hours.", are you saying somthing 'May' spin up in the next few hours to perhaps higher "LOW" intensity?


Hi NL

In basic terms in meteorology, it's a well known fact that spin creates LOW pressure. So when we look at a vorticity chart. The area that has enhanced spin is likely also to be an area which will have the lowest surface pressure.

Take a look at this chart:


In this chart you can see areas of most spin known as vorticity. In the southern hemisphere, areas with enhanced vorticity appear as large negative values. Remember spin (vorticity) creates or enhances already existing LOW pressure. The chart above is one that depict spin at the lower levels so it is likely to be associated primarily with surface LOW's and troughs. You can almost see the Monsoon trough from the area of enhanced spin (greenish colour) and you can also see two areas of enhanced spin on that line One is south of PNG and one is over the southern Solomons (there's also one west of Darwin). From that map we can deduce that it is likely that a LOW is present or will form at those 2 points along that trough line. The stronger LOW is likely to form south of PNG where the strongest amount of spin (vorticity) is occuring.

I've tried to make that as simple as possible. The actual physics involved is quite a lot more detailed than that but I'm hoping the way I've explained it is easy enoiugh to understand smile
Posted by: NorthernLights

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/12/2010 00:22

Thamks Nitso, that has explained a lot!!
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/12/2010 07:09

First signs of increased NW Flow into the area of the low.


HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA 10
NORTH EASTERN AREA EQUATOR TO 28S, 142E TO 170E
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE
FOR 24 HOURS FROM 1100UTC 22 DECEMBER 2010

PART 1 WARNINGS
Nil.

PART 2 SITUATION
At 220600UTC.
Almost stationary weak monsoon trough from 12S143E, to weak low [1001 hPa] near
10S157E, to 07S170E.

PART 3 FORECAST
North of monsoon trough.
NE/NW winds 5/15 knots, increasing to 15/25 knots east of about 163E.
Smooth to
slight seas, tending moderate east of 163E. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Rain areas and overnight scattered thunderstorms near monsoon
trough.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/12/2010 08:27

Ha ha all this talk of LOWS will have people's heads spinning.

To recap:
We have a LOW south of PNG - it's very weak
We have a possible weak LOW developing very slowly over the southern Solomons,
We also have an area of cloud rotation in the high 160's east of the Solomons
We have a deepening monsoon trough that could spawn a new LOW anywhere over the Coral Sea in the next 48 hours. None of the current circulations are strong enough to demand our attention nor do they have closed circulations.

The BOM's extended outlook doesn't make it any clearer either
"A monsoon low will develop on the trough during Thursday." what LOW? does it exist yet? will these broad LOWS develop one closed circulation? Who knows, it's not explained.

Here are my 2 cents for what they're worth. A new closed circulation LOW will develop East or ENE of Cairns sometime tonight along the monsoon trough and move WSW along the subtrop mid level ridge towards the tropical east coast late Friday or early Saturday. The PNG LOW will cross the coast in the northern cape as a weak system get into the gulf and develop into a monsoonal system as the NW flow freshens and the new HIGH in the bight provides a kick from the south. Once in the Gulf that LOW will move South in response to the increased northerly upper flow due to an intensification of the monsoon trough and more importantly an amplifying upper trough over western QLD.

As for the ones east of 160E I have no idea or interest in those ones right now because we have bigger fish to fry first. Anything that happens out there will be 4 - 5 days away at least. Anything that happens in the "Coral Sea' will be on our doorstep within a day or two.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/12/2010 09:02

Originally Posted By: Steamy
First signs of increased NW Flow into the area of the low.


HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA 10
NORTH EASTERN AREA EQUATOR TO 28S, 142E TO 170E
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE
FOR 24 HOURS FROM 1100UTC 22 DECEMBER 2010

PART 1 WARNINGS
Nil.

PART 2 SITUATION
At 220600UTC.
Almost stationary weak monsoon trough from 12S143E, to weak low [1001 hPa] near
10S157E, to 07S170E.

PART 3 FORECAST
North of monsoon trough.
NE/NW winds 5/15 knots, increasing to 15/25 knots east of about 163E.
Smooth to
slight seas, tending moderate east of 163E. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Rain areas and overnight scattered thunderstorms near monsoon
trough.


sweet, thats around my area grin
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/12/2010 09:19

is this almost an exposed centre or LLCC @ 156.5E - 12.5S ???


Also, what is that blowing up off Cairns at the moment? Looks pretty impressive.
Posted by: cyclone man

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/12/2010 12:07

yeaaa i agree with u there about whats blowing up off cairns right now, i thought that would only get smaller but no it got bigger
Posted by: Jesse24

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/12/2010 13:00

BOM said on the radio before that is is a trough. Not the monsoon one just a normal one.
Posted by: nocturnal1

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/12/2010 13:07

Originally Posted By: nitso
Ha ha all this talk of LOWS will have people's heads spinning.

To recap:
We have a LOW south of PNG - it's very weak
We have a possible weak LOW developing very slowly over the southern Solomons,
We also have an area of cloud rotation in the high 160's east of the Solomons
We have a deepening monsoon trough that could spawn a new LOW anywhere over the Coral Sea in the next 48 hours. None of the current circulations are strong enough to demand our attention nor do they have closed circulations.

The BOM's extended outlook doesn't make it any clearer either
"A monsoon low will develop on the trough during Thursday." what LOW? does it exist yet? will these broad LOWS develop one closed circulation? Who knows, it's not explained.

Here are my 2 cents for what they're worth. A new closed circulation LOW will develop East or ENE of Cairns sometime tonight along the monsoon trough and move WSW along the subtrop mid level ridge towards the tropical east coast late Friday or early Saturday. The PNG LOW will cross the coast in the northern cape as a weak system get into the gulf and develop into a monsoonal system as the NW flow freshens and the new HIGH in the bight provides a kick from the south. Once in the Gulf that LOW will move South in response to the increased northerly upper flow due to an intensification of the monsoon trough and more importantly an amplifying upper trough over western QLD.

As for the ones east of 160E I have no idea or interest in those ones right now because we have bigger fish to fry first. Anything that happens out there will be 4 - 5 days away at least. Anything that happens in the "Coral Sea' will be on our doorstep within a day or two.


Thanks nitso, great summary!
Posted by: Afroboy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/12/2010 13:12

Originally Posted By: Jesse24
BOM said on the radio before that is is a trough. Not the monsoon one just a normal one.

That's right. It is the trough firing up out there just past the reef. Hence those bands of heavy rain forming and slowly being steered E / ENE towards us
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/12/2010 13:16

Originally Posted By: Afroboy
Originally Posted By: Jesse24
BOM said on the radio before that is is a trough. Not the monsoon one just a normal one.

That's right. It is the trough firing up out there just past the reef. Hence those bands of heavy rain forming and slowly being steered E / ENE towards us


This morning it looked like something more substantial than a trough. Looked like a big circular blob with banding.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/12/2010 13:23

why arent the BoM charts updating?? Still showing 5am!
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/12/2010 15:33

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Thursday the 23rd of December 2010 and valid until end
of Sunday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
A low over the northwest Coral Sea is forecast to move in a west southwest
direction towards the north Queensland coast over the next couple of days. The
most likely scenario is that the system will remain as a monsoon low as the
monsoon trough establishes itself in the region by the weekend.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Friday: Low
Saturday: Low
Sunday: Very low

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day:
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/12/2010 23:36

watch in the central cs
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/12/2010 23:49

yip, theres still something there @ 153E - 14S battling on smile

Looks weak and being influenced by the trough off Cairns, although looks to be starting to wrap a little more with some northerly wind in it?

NRL still have it but rammb have dropped it I think(and the one off the NW WA)

Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/12/2010 23:54

Here's a thought. The trough on the coast continues to dump keeping the Bruce Highway closed (close to 300mm up till noon today). Then the low up near the Solomons gets into top gear and races across the Coral Sea at about 30 knots and hits Cairns as a low (no time to spin up) at about 4am on xmas day.
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 23/12/2010 23:58

Yep TC Poncho
It looks like a duck
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 00:01

rammb mustt have just been updating their site, its still on there too :D)
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 00:03

please keep this topic on the developing tropical low only please
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 00:31

No thoughts at all... that low is after all the same one we have been talking about for days.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 00:42

Originally Posted By: boomer
No thoughts at all... that low is after all the same one we have been talking about for days.


Maybe put the presents in the ark before you go to sleep Christmas eve??? eek
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 00:46

You seem to disbelieve Poncho. So what is this low going to do... you have certainly had opinions before.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 00:53

probably exactly what the bom are predicting. Just go over the coast near Cairns as a weak low, then regenerate in the GOC and head south dumping a crapload more rain. This thing has had every opportunity to go TC and hasn't done a thing. Its too close to the trough running the coast Cairns to Townsville me thinks, but that wont stop me keeping an eye on it.
laugh reverse psychology?? laugh
Posted by: Myak-04

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 00:53

Most likely just a trick of the clouds, but on the sat loop it looks like the low has an eye. A tad bit premature poke.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 00:56

Originally Posted By: Myak-04
Most likely just a trick of the clouds, but on the sat loop it looks like the low has an eye. A tad bit premature poke.



Yeah, i thought i just willed myself to see that low
for a second grin
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 01:00

the last high seas forecast had the low at 15S 148E, which is located on radar about 300km east of cooktown.
Posted by: NorthernLights

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 01:04

Evening all, was just looking at the navy site, and it seems like there is some rotation?? in the coral sea. Please advise if i am not seeing this right...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/ne...verview.NGT.jpg
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 01:08

Poncho.. like two pods in a blanket... methinks we think alike. As for reverse psyh... methinks not, been through too many TCs. Getting older and now have properties to protect.
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 01:10

yep... that looks like rotation. Thoughts Poncho?
Posted by: MadJazz

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 01:11

The WZ Qld Satellite map shows the same rotation, you can almost see an eye, though could be just wishful thinking

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite....c=3&lye=1&lyf=1
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 01:33

Originally Posted By: NorthernLights
Evening all, was just looking at the navy site, and it seems like there is some rotation?? in the coral sea. Please advise if i am not seeing this right...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/ne...verview.NGT.jpg


WoW, that link is cool.

definitley looks a lot better. If its going to intensify it will be tonight with the diurnal. Cloud tops look pretty high and cold bubbles appearing. Shear is OK over that area too. The only thing I noticed though is that the lower wind flow isn't quite closed with it lagging in the NE quadrant but looping back on itself shortly after and coming in as a Northerly wind? This may have changed now though as it looks like a pretty dynamic situation.

Too hard to pick, but it certainly is on the move Eastward!!
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 01:37

ooohhhhhhhhh yeah!!!!!
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 01:59

Looks like an eye... but how fast is this thing moving? It must be barrelling along... I assume if it links with the trough temps will kill it, but if it does not slow it will kill itself.
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 02:01

Correct me if I am wrong, but whatever it is it seems pretty big.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 02:02

Agreed. Wheres Nitso when you need him? lol
Posted by: Jesse24

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 02:06

It's not a eye but it looks a lot better than before. Hopefully it maintains orgainisation during the day tomorrow.
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 02:06

Latest sat image from bom is much harder to read.
http://www.bom.gov.au/gms/IDE00035.latest.shtml
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 02:18

Sans Nitso, my mail on this is that "that low" will accelerate rapidly before hitting Cairns (probably north of) early xmas am with 60kph ave winds and stronger blows. Townsville will cop a drenching due to oscillation. Cairns will be cut off for days.
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 02:19

It's moving too fast to spin up.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 04:36

We have rotation! Well spotted ppl.

Now slightly evident on Willis radar to the NNE of Willis Island. Whatever is out there is pretty weak right now, but in an area that is conducive for development. All steering winds are moving it WSW for now and perhaps SW before it makes landfall. North of Cairns would be the preferred target at the moment with areas south of there going to cop an absolute caning later Friday.

How nice would it be if it just slowed down and moved south a little to align itself under an upper anticyclone just to the south of it . . . ah wishful thinking.
Posted by: E-J

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 07:36

Hey Nitso. Nice banding starting to appear on radar. Although very weak at this stage, I wouldn't rule out something a little stronger than a low by landfall, especially if it takes a little dive south.

These systems have a habit of spinning up rapidly. Even if it doesnt we sure are well on our way to getting a drenching for Christmas
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 07:40

Its now expected not to cross the coast north of cairns.
Posted by: Afroboy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 07:47

Originally Posted By: Travvv doggy dog
Its now expected not to cross the coast north of cairns.

Not sure where u are getting your info TD ( have looked at the charts, warnings etc). Still looks like crossing to the north of Cairns. But regardless, you should be getting some decent rain down that way by later today smile
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 07:47

bom tville said this morning they expect to cross around cooktown. this heavy rains expected along the entire tropical coast.
Posted by: Afroboy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 07:48

Originally Posted By: Mick10
bom tville said this morning they expect to cross around cooktown. this heavy rains expected along the entire tropical coast.

Yep, per my post above. I still think that with the placement of the upper trough, and the moist air feeding into it, Townsville should still get some pretty good totals
Posted by: E-J

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 07:49

From the Extended forecast
"A low will develop on the monsoon trough and move southwest towards the North Tropical Coast later today."

South West from where it is now, will be either Cairns or a little further south.

Lets just wait and see
Posted by: Afroboy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 07:54

Hey E-J, missed that in the outlook forecast. Regardless, i still think that Cardwell south will do better out of this system.
Almost looks like a small rotation on the Willis Is radar. If it is it is moving fairly quickly
Posted by: E-J

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 08:18

Yeah it is. Hence probably why the BOM dont think TC status before landfall is possible
Posted by: FNQ

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 08:22

EJ you're correct. There is no way this system could turn into a TC prior to making land fall - the speed at which is travelling for a start doesn't give it time to bomb. As a Tropical Low, it will certainly bring a lot of rain as it is expected to pull the MT down with it.
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 08:35

My Mum always said the Lows which formed around Willis Island were the ones to affect us here the most. This one is a little too far north. However steering winds after 48 hrs turn from the east to from the NNE and the AccessG model maintains a small low running down the coast.
Posted by: windwanderer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 09:15

looks to be something forming further out also. rotation on the satelites. out near 180E 16S

could be our first cyclone there?
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 09:19

Actually noticed that one yesterday and it is moving pretty much directly west but atm it is way too far out to be concerned about.The chances of a system reaching our coast from that far out are slim to none
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 09:30

Originally Posted By: windwanderer
looks to be something forming further out also. rotation on the satelites. out near 180E 16S

could be our first cyclone there?


Ha ha that one probably deserves a mention in the WORLD thread not in the Coral Sea cyclone thread. You know were getting desperate when we're mentioning rotations 3500kms away smile

Our little friend is on the move to the west - almost straight to the west at the moment. With very weak rotation evident on radar. Nothing to be writing home about yet, but it is in a position that will allow some intensification throughout the day and particularly into tonight (if it doesn't hit the land first that is).
Posted by: E-J

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 09:34

Mr Brett Guy!!! Get back to work you slacker!!
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 10:36

Theres still someting out at 163E-8S. Its been there for days spitting out these other lows and cloud circulations, it is still sitting in good conditions to spin up.

The one near the coast has good shear conditions and improving but I think its going to quick, plus the dirty air from the trough would hinder it i think.

Too much shear and getting worse for the one out at 180E at the moment. But, if it keeps going west it will run into that upper high area which is good:)

Posted by: vpprt

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 10:52

Low started to spin up.
15S 150E, 500 km ENE of Cairns.
Willis island 512km shows it really well.
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 11:21

Irrespective of how fast the low near Willis Island is travelling I'd be a little surprised if it doesn't reach cyclone status before landfall purely because of very high SST's and wind shear conditions which although not ideal are far from being "unfriendly".
Posted by: Blueycairns

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 11:28

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
Looks like the system at 180 E is spinning up a lot more than the system on the NQ coast frown
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 11:34

It looks like the Tropical low is going for Townsville I just been told by the weather channel on New Austar Digital & Foxtel Digital on channel 603.
Posted by: Blueycairns

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 11:44

PRIORITY
Coastal Waters Wind Warning
For Cairns to Bowen
Issued at 9:25 am EST on Friday 24 December 2010

Synoptic Situation
A weak monsoon low near Willis Island is moving to the south-west and will cross the coast near Cairns overnight.

Strong Wind Warning
Cairns to Bowen
SE/NE winds will increase to 25/30 knots during the afternoon. Seas will rise to 3 metres outside the reef and to 2 metres inside the reef.

The next warning will be issued by 5 pm Friday AEST.

The BOM are still saying Cairns re above.
Posted by: FNQ

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 11:52

Mathew the BOM have been consistent with a crossing near Cairns (just north at this stage) The Willis Is Radar is currently down but other images certainly have a clear rotation.
Posted by: cyclone man

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 11:59

Originally Posted By: Blueycairns
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
Looks like the system at 180 E is spinning up a lot more than the system on the NQ coast frown
yeaa i can see that too dose anyone rekon that could turn into a cyclone in australian waters? or will it just be attacked by wind shear?
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 12:18

Originally Posted By: Mathew
It looks like the Tropical low is going for Townsville I just been told by the weather channel on New Austar Digital & Foxtel Digital on channel 603.


It's not going to cross near us Mathew, they are recycling old news.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 12:47

Where it's is going for now??

I was just only want a nice update that is all.

It's looking like this one is moving slowly south and developing more that what I thinking at moment as well any way.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 12:51

Matthew. It is going to cross to the north of Cairns most likely and will remain as a fairly weak tropical low. It will NOT develop into a cyclone. Rain will be heavy in patches anywhere from Cairns to Mackay. Winds will be unlikely to top 30kts.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 12:54

It's is good to be up to date.

That is my say any way.

Things can change.
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 12:58

Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Matthew. It is going to cross to the north of Cairns most likely and will remain as a fairly weak tropical low. It will NOT develop into a cyclone. Rain will be heavy in patches anywhere from Cairns to Mackay. Winds will be unlikely to top 30kts.


Given that Willis Island has recorded sustained winds at 30knots (disregarding an earlier sustained reading of 34 knots) with the LLC to the north I wouldn't be too confident of predicting the low won't reach cyclone status before crossing the coast. Whilst it might only get to category 1 I would not say that a cyclone is out of the question yet.
Posted by: Afroboy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 13:03

I tend to agree Locke. Not a high chance, but not out of the question. The is some decent development going on looking at the Sat Loop. BoM have just updated the MSLP with the low at 1001hp just off Willis Is
Posted by: Afroboy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 13:04

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 13:10

The wind speeds recorded on Willis so far are typical of a monsoonal lOW

Region of max wind with this system at 10AM was 160 odd nautical miles away from the centre to the SW, SSW

It's still a long way from being a TC. But as I mentioned earlier in the day, it WILL develop today and tonight (not maybe develop it WILL develop) just needs to slow down while it's in such a great area otherwise it will remain a STRONG MONSOONAL LOW as it crosses the coast.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 13:29

Hope you guys are right and it gets stonger than I am thinking it will but I just can't see that happening if it keeps up the speed it is travelling.
Posted by: vpprt

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 13:31

ABC News 24 is running a conference with the Premier, EMQ, Police and the BoM.
Posted by: Blondie72

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 13:35

I love this site, everyone one on here has so much knowledge and it keeps us Weather Newbies posted as to what's likely to happen. Pretty wet here 40 km North of Mackay last night with 80mm overnight, bringing us a total of 140 for the 24 hours....going to go fill the jerry cans this afternoon, just in case!
Posted by: mscactus

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 13:44

Has that already been on vpprt?
Posted by: Chookie

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 13:45

what is vpprt?
Posted by: RadioBoi1980

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 13:45

Just saw on National 7 News that the Bureau thinks the low off of Cape York possibly turn into a Cyclone. Anyone else see that?? Was about 15 mins ago
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 13:50

Current directional heading over the last 3 hours has been 230 degrees. on current heading will cross near Innisfail.

It is moving into an area of 5 knot wind shear right under an almost stationary upper anticyclone.

I'm starting to get excited smile

EDIT SPEED OF MOVEMENT 25 -30KM/HR
Posted by: mscactus

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 13:52

Originally Posted By: Chookie
what is vpprt?


Chookie that is a person that posted a couple of posts up. I was asking if the conference they referred to has been on already.
Posted by: Afroboy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 13:52

Me too. The sat pics just keep showing more development. If it gets the good flow from the upper anticyclone, hello!
Posted by: Chookie

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 13:53

ok nitso please tell me why you are excited. Is it that we are going to see heaps of rain locally or some other reason? it can't turn into a cyclone can it? or that is it going to come further soputh?
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 13:55

the trough that was along the coast looks to have eased and the low looks to have taken over now:)
Posted by: Maisie

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 13:56

Isn,t there 2 lows? One up near the cape and one near Willis Island. Maybe thats why there seems to be some confusion with posters as where it will cross. Just a thought.
Posted by: DeniseEm

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 13:56

I got excited when i saw santa claus and his reindeer fly across the radar when i first logged in this morning YES!!! i can still get my pressies.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 14:00

Originally Posted By: Maisie
Isn,t there 2 lows? One up near the cape and one near Willis Island. Maybe thats why there seems to be some confusion with posters as where it will cross. Just a thought.


The LOW near the cape was never a big feature it'll cross the cape near Cape Melville (how many more 'capes' can I put into one sentence). Once crossing the Cape it'll go into a favourable area for intensification in the Gulf and that is the new LOW some of the models are predicting to cause havoc over inland Queensland next week (it should develop due to a monsoonal NW wind surge - but we'll discuss that one in the gulf thread)

The LOW near Willis has spun up overnight into a closed circulation and this is the LOW that everyone is now watching. This LOW does have potential to develop into a TC if it remains over water for another 24 - 48 hours which seems unlikely.

Hope that helps
Posted by: windwanderer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 14:03

willis island obs have the pressure continuing to drop. down around 1003 now and falling gradually. so tonight looks like the night to watch what happens. wind speed is still not that strong at 30 knots.

quick note on the 180E system, still moving west but i think the wind shear is starting to have an effect. if it continues west into more stable areas it may end up being a biggy. :-)
Posted by: Maisie

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 14:09

Thanks Nitso, that clears it up for me and any others unsure of what is going on.
We can concentrate on the one Low that is coming our way now.
Posted by: windwanderer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 14:09

is it normal for lows approaching cairns to stall off the coast and intensify? i remember a few in the past doing that. i wonder what the chances are that this one will slow as it nears land and intensify further?
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 14:15

This is where the Torpical low is at the moment.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR411.loop.shtml#skip
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 14:17

If this system started to bomb right now and dropped by 1hpa an hour then at best it would get down to around 990 by the time it made landfall. This would probably give it cyclone status but is highly unlikely to happen unfortunately. Still it will be very interesting to see where it finally makes landfall as this seems to be the biggest question at the moment
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 14:20

Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 14:27

Dammit!!!!

This monsoon surge is just 2 days late. 2 days earlier and we would have had a full blown TC in the Coral Sea frown

PRIORITY
Coastal Waters Wind Warning
For north-east Gulf of Carpentaria waters.
Issued at 9:35 am EST on Friday 24 December 2010

Synoptic Situation
A monsoon surge is expect to move across these waters during Saturday afternoon.

Strong Wind Warning
for north-east Gulf of Carpentaria waters
NW winds will increase to 25/30 knots during Saturday afternoon. Seas and swell will increase to 3 metres.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 14:31

Hope for it to slow down a bit for it to develop more who know.
Posted by: vpprt

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 14:31

Originally Posted By: mscactus
Has that already been on vpprt?


Yeah, it has been on already. ABC News 24 tend to cycle the stories hourly, so it will probably be repeated a couple of times today.
Posted by: E-J

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 14:32

The more this thing progresses, the more organised it gets. It is starting to even look good on sat loop. There is a window of opportunity this evening, albeit small, but anything can happen. The antiques store in Innisfail has commenced sandbagging already. I think this is a good move as tonights rainfall could be something special.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 14:38

Still nothing really feeding into it from the NW
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 14:38

Hi E J have sent you a PM ages ago mate re Cyclone Ului, please reply when you get a moment. Mods my apologies for going off topic.

Cheers, Nitso
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 15:00

so hows it looking any up dates ? it does look very good on sat !
Posted by: drivenunder

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 15:03

Channel ten (the 2pm news update) just said there was a watch on the low and there is a chance it may develop into a cyclone! The media will just love this! Millions of day-time TV viewers witnessed that news report.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 15:03

The US Navy/NRL Monterey site are still tracking it as 94P Invest.
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 15:34

94p invest ?
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 15:38

yes the have numbers for areas that they watch for development
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 15:45

oh okay
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 16:21

Originally Posted By: nitso
Dammit!!!!

This monsoon surge is just 2 days late. 2 days earlier and we would have had a full blown TC in the Coral Sea frown

PRIORITY
Coastal Waters Wind Warning
For north-east Gulf of Carpentaria waters.
Issued at 9:35 am EST on Friday 24 December 2010

Synoptic Situation
A monsoon surge is expect to move across these waters during Saturday afternoon.

Strong Wind Warning
for north-east Gulf of Carpentaria waters
NW winds will increase to 25/30 knots during Saturday afternoon. Seas and swell will increase to 3 metres.


Far out!!! there is soooo much going on atm. In the last hour or two something has happened with the conductivity and the whole CS is lighting up.

Also, Theres still my area persisting at the southern Solomons too @ 163E. If that moves east when the surge comes there could be number #2 TC and more rain for the east coast.

Plus, theres also something happening over Fiji too which is great for my surf potential poke
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 16:27

whats the chance of this one slowing down ? i guess no one really knows.
Posted by: storm freak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 16:27

So exciting but stressful at the smae time. LOL, Where does everyone think it will cross, it appears to be taking a more SW direction now. We in Cairns might miss out on this one.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 16:28

Can we please keep all discussion regarding the monsoonal Low in this thread.

cheers
Posted by: Ree

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 16:34

TV just said that Queensland are on cyclone watch, but BOM don't have anything about a 'watch'.
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 16:37

hahahah bom's either late or the tv is jumping the gun
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 24/12/2010 16:45

The bom have activated the cyclone warning centre just in case the system intensifies further, though there is no official watch out for the system. tv is jumping the gun.
please refer to the monsoonal low thread for further discussion.
Posted by: exodus

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/12/2010 03:12

we have our first TC of the season!!

Tropical Cyclone Tasha

Issued at 2:07 am EST Saturday 25 December 2010. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 2.

Advice 2 isnt up on the BOM page just yet.

track map included



Uploaded with ImageShack.us


---- Advise now available.



IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 2:11am EST on Saturday the 25th of December 2010

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Port Douglas to
Cardwell.

At 1:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Tasha, Category 1, was estimated to be
95 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 195 kilometres north northeast of
Cardwell and is moving west southwest at 31 kilometres per hour towards the
coast.

GALES have already been observed offshore and should develop about coastal parts
over the next several hours.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS of up to 100 km/h are expected to develop about the north
tropical coast and continue throughout Saturday morning.

HEAVY RAINFALL and associated flooding will continue in coastal areas between
Port Douglas and Cardwell and extend inland during Saturday.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is also current for areas south of Cardwell.



People between Port Douglas and Cardwell should remain inside until the cyclone
has passed and listen to the next advice at 5 am.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Tropical Cyclone Tasha at 1:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.6 degrees South 146.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 31 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Saturday 25 December.
Posted by: RadioBoi1980

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/12/2010 06:34

What I find amusing is, some thought this would turn to a cyclone and at the slight suggestion of it, we have all of these "experts" on here say "no no no, it couldn't possibly turn into any cyclone..." then we all wake on Xmas morning to see we gave TC Tasha about to cross the coast. My point here is, weather is unpredictable and not even the best of weather nerds can get it Right!! Merry Xmas all.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/12/2010 06:37

...and there could be another by tomorrow?

from Bom's extended forecast..........

Forecast for Saturday
The monsoon low will move into the southern tropical interior and weaken whilst another monsoon low will develop in the Gulf of Carpentaria. So further rain areas with widespread moderate to heavy falls will occur generally over the southern and eastern tropics and most of the south-east of the state. Showers and thunderstorms will occur over most remaining areas of the state. Strengthening W to NW winds will develop over the far northern tropics. Moderate to fresh SE to NE winds, strong about parts of the south-east tropical coast, will occur over much of the remainder of the state.

Forecast for Sunday
The new monsoon low will move into the south-east Gulf of Carpentaria while an inland trough will extend across the interior of the state. So further rain areas, showers and local thunder with scattered moderate to heavy falls will occur over the northern and eastern parts of the state. Moderate to fresh NE to NW winds will occur across most of the state. These winds will be strong about parts of the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria. A drier S'ly change will move into the far south-west of the state late in the day.

Forecast for Monday
The monsoon low will remain anchored about the south-east Gulf of Carpentaria while the drier S'ly change will link to the inland trough. This latter combined feature will then merge with a front which will move northwards along the NSW and reach the Coolangatta area in the evening and this frontal system will help enhance rainfall about the south-east corner of the state. So rain, showers and storms with scattered moderate to heavy falls will continue over most northern and eastern districts of the state. Light to moderate NW to NE winds will continue over most northern and eastern areas of the state. Drier S'ly winds will continue over the south-west while fresh to strong S'ly winds will develop on the far southern coast late in the day.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/12/2010 07:32

Originally Posted By: RadioBoi1980
What I find amusing is, some thought this would turn to a cyclone and at the slight suggestion of it, we have all of these "experts" on here say "no no no, it couldn't possibly turn into any cyclone..." then we all wake on Xmas morning to see we gave TC Tasha about to cross the coast. My point here is, weather is unpredictable and not even the best of weather nerds can get it Right!! Merry Xmas all.


I'm pretty sure most of the weather nerds on here were saying she WOULD become a tropicl cyclone if given a little bit more time. It was the BoM weather nerds that decided only late yesterday to activate their TCWC, us weather nerds have been toying with the possibility of it becoming a TC since yesterday morning. Up until about 1AM it was just a monsoonal LOW. Up until 5PM it was a very weak one.

Now the other monsson LOW faces the same issue, will it get over open water for long enough to spin up into a TC? The conditions once again will be favourable (a little higher in the wind shear department but compensated by enhanced poleward outflow) and this one will get a good kick up the backside from the north this time as well as the south, something that Tasha was lacking.

All in all, Tasha showed how quickly things develop when all the right environmental conditions are met. Now it's time for the heavy rain smile smile
Posted by: DeniseEm

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/12/2010 07:34

LOL has anyone told WA and NT that they lost out on the First Cyclone of the year and Qld won.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/12/2010 07:49

they wouldnt be awake yet! but what a surprise they will get!!
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/12/2010 08:05

[quote=nitso
Now the other monsson LOW faces the same issue, will it get over open water for long enough to spin up into a TC? The conditions once again will be favourable (a little higher in the wind shear department but compensated by enhanced poleward outflow) and this one will get a good kick up the backside from the north this time as well as the south, something that Tasha was lacking. [/quote]

Actually after looking at some model runs this morning, I don't think the Gulf LOW will eventuate frown
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/12/2010 08:54

Whats that at 168E 19S NITSO
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/12/2010 11:00

Nicely spotted Mick. Nice LLCC heading west
Posted by: NorthernLights

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/12/2010 12:16

What does LLCC mean?
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/12/2010 12:19

Upper low i think.
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/12/2010 12:25

Originally Posted By: DeniseEm
LOL has anyone told WA and NT that they lost out on the First Cyclone of the year and Qld won.
WHAT!!! has there been a cyclone? When did that happen!! Oh right another one of those QLD 996hp cyclones. HA HA well done I suppose. I think BOM just throw them in for you guys to make you feel special. lol
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/12/2010 12:28

I think they do Popeye.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/12/2010 12:32

so the cyclone has nine tails?? she who can not be named but cane be named:)

Number #2 on the way this week I reckon.
Posted by: FNQ

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/12/2010 12:53

Morning again and Merry Christmas. I have just emailed this message to BoM:

TO WHOM IT MAY CONCERN

Having just been through a Cat 1 in Cairns it is now time for the BoM in Queensland to seriously review your Community Alert System (CAS). I suggest you adopt the same system that they have in operation in Western Australia. Refer to http://www.ses-wa.asn.au/node/481 We should have been given a 'Blue Alert' at least 48 hours prior to 1 am. Last night we went to bed at 12 pm thinking there was no reason for concern and yet we were woken with wild winds some 4 hours later. A 'Yellow' alert would have been very appropriate to have had in place at 1 am followed by a 'Red' Alert as it approached the coast.

Please pass this request onto the highest authorities within Queensland BoM and I expect a reply as we are talking about 'Emergency Alerts'.

Yours sincerely
Posted by: snowmad

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/12/2010 13:19

Mad Mick , just noticed that swirl at 19S 168E approx looks good on MTSAT image definite LLCC looking and moving west also last few frames show nice storm clouds developing on the eastern flank. May be the next Coral sea cyclone being born conditions do not look to bad out there at the moment.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/12/2010 13:28

Originally Posted By: mad mick
Whats that at 168E 19S NITSO


No idea but it's located near a very strong upper LOW to its east, in 30 - 40 knot wind shear (and increasing), in upper convergence and shows absolutely no sign of any rotation at all using surface wind analysis. Not to mention it's at least a couple of days away from entering our waters and in an area of marginal oceanic heat content.

So it checks very few (if any) of the many boxes required for it to even think about becoming a TC. Wouldn't be looking twice at it.

Hope it proves me dead wrong but without being cocky I don't think it will.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/12/2010 16:04

the tc got down to 993hpa
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/12/2010 16:44

Thanks Nitso looked good earlier on to far south maybe if it survives
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/12/2010 19:29

Originally Posted By: Squid
the tc got down to 993hpa


992.4hPa at home and lower south of here.

....and here's the next one wink



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: cyclone man

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/12/2010 20:40

is that the next one comming??
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 25/12/2010 20:47

that is extended gfs do take it with a grain of salt interesting all the same
Posted by: grumbleguts

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 00:49

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

anyone else see the rotation at 15 s 175 e or is it just my eyes playing tricks?
Posted by: DeniseEm

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 00:59

It does look like its turning doesnt it i checked all 4 different types of the loops lol its either the clouds playing tricks on us or its rotating.
Posted by: NorthernLights

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 01:27

Hey folks, by 170 East at 15 South, it appears that we have some clockwise rotation. I can see that it looks broken up as it circulates but still i believe it could be of concern. It did look more compacted as a clockwise rotation about 24-26 hrs ago to my belief but I think we should keep a watch on this begger!!!I think that this could be something to watch!!
Posted by: cyclone man

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 01:44

that has being sitting at 175east 15south for awhile now it keeps looking promising then it looks like it died but then promising again its getting annoying
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 01:53

Yes rotation

Yes Upper Level LOW

NO NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE

NO NO CHANCE OF EVER BECOMING ONE!!!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...vir&zoom=&time=
Posted by: nocturnal1

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 02:02

Oh. frown Well, better the hopes be dashed now, than to waste time fawning over what can never be.
Now I can sleep tonight! Or I could, except the radar is so daym hypnotic! grin
Posted by: NorthernLights

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 02:04

Hey Nitso, I am not saying it will become a cyclone, but I do think that this is a system we may need to watch quite closely over the next couple of days By the way what does LLCC mean, Trav didnt give me an exact meaning on the accronynm... Happy Boxing Day!!! Hope theres not too many sore Heads!!
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 02:13

LLCC = Low level circulation centre - a circulation that exists in the surface or 850Hpa level of the atmosphere.

This area is no chance of development while an upper LOW is above it - don't waste time and energy hoping. Once the upper LOW weakens the convection will stop.

Instead if you have energy to burn, try looking at the gulf - now there's potentially some rotation worth watching to see if it develops. Because conditions in that area are more favourable. If something does develop, it has a hell of a lot more chance of affecting Qld than that mass of crud out near 175E does.
Posted by: NorthernLights

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 02:18

Hey I was just looking at the MTSAT and there is a red blob clockwising on the edge of QLD, I dont know if thats the area to watch but thats all I can see at this stage...And yeah I have energy to burn!!
Posted by: NorthernLights

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 02:22

I mean in the gulf area, I that the position i should be looking at??
Posted by: NorthernLights

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 02:24

I think I will look more tomorrow on the future developments...Night all and Happy Boxing Day!!!
Posted by: NorthernLights

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 02:26

OMG...I just Realised I am NOW a WEATHER FREAK!!!!!..ARRRRRR
Posted by: Blueycairns

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 05:09

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR181.loop.shtml
Starting to build a little. poke
Posted by: windwanderer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 09:42

seems to be something very very weak at 163e 22s, although in an area of shear conditions to the west are improving. it's interesting that ecmwf and gfs are both toying with something out in this area later in the week.

till now i guess all eyes are elsewhere. :-(
Posted by: grumbleguts

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 09:54

the mcg perhaps?
Posted by: windwanderer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 09:55

hehe, will be for me.
Posted by: nocturnal1

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 10:55

While there are no cyclones presently... if one were to form in the Coral Sea, given the SST's what are our chances of getting one down here between Southport and Byron Bay this season?

I know there are a LOT more factors at play than just sea surface temps, but I suppose I'd just like to know if we have a snowball's chance in hell.

Also is there any way the Low over inland QLD could move out over the Coral Sea and form into a TC, or is that very unlikely?
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 10:58

There is no way you can accuaratly call whether a cyclone has a chance of hitting anywhere. Everything has to come together at one time to even get a cyclone forming.....

Its just too hard, we might not even get another one for the season.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 11:00

Originally Posted By: nitso
Yes rotation

Yes Upper Level LOW

NO NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE

NO NO CHANCE OF EVER BECOMING ONE!!!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...vir&zoom=&time=


woosa
......

wooooosaaa.....


woooooosaaaaaa....

wink
Posted by: nocturnal1

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 11:01

Yeah... ta. I realise it's pretty unpredictable, I suppose I'm really just wondering if our water down here is warm enough to sustain cyclonic life, should the right atmospheric conditions come about... grin
Posted by: grumbleguts

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 11:24

noc, http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/cyclones.cgi?region=aus&syear=1999&eyear=2000&loc=0 check out the tracking map for TC steve, went around the entire country and wound up just south of adelaide before he died. any thing's possible.
Posted by: nocturnal1

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 17:34

Originally Posted By: grumbleguts
noc, http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/cyclones.cgi?region=aus&syear=1999&eyear=2000&loc=0 check out the tracking map for TC steve, went around the entire country and wound up just south of adelaide before he died. any thing's possible.


Aha, ta grumbleguts. smile What a little fighter that steve was! Well actually we've had a couple crossings near here before (going back quite a few years now) so it could easily happen again I suppose (given the right conditions) maybe this year's the year. Feb-April is better for TCs in the south anyway I reckon.
Posted by: dylos

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 18:50

how is where it died anywhere south of adelaide lol
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 21:22

.
Posted by: grumbleguts

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 22:32

.
Posted by: grumbleguts

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 22:39

Originally Posted By: nocturnal1
Originally Posted By: grumbleguts
noc, http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/cyclones.cgi?region=aus&syear=1999&eyear=2000&loc=0 check out the tracking map for TC steve, went around the entire country and wound up just south of adelaide before he died. any thing's possible.


Aha, ta grumbleguts. smile What a little fighter that steve was! Well actually we've had a couple crossings near here before (going back quite a few years now) so it could easily happen again I suppose (given the right conditions) maybe this year's the year. Feb-April is better for TCs in the south anyway I reckon.


the heat capacity of water is 4.18 j/deg C/g while the heat capacity of continental crust (felsic rock) is about 0.79 j/deg C/g

this means that it takes 5 times the energy to heat up water than it does to heat up land. This is why we get warmer oceans in feb march even though summer is officially over at the end of feb.
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 23:14

Spoken to my neighbours at Bramston Beach... they've broken into our beach house to connect the fridge, God bless em... they had no idea Tasha was coming... no great damage but should we not have a different warning system? ( PS the beach was flooded out as usual)
Posted by: thomo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 23:17

The warning system was/is quite adequate, strong wind and heavy rainfall warnings were put out days before it happened.
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 23:19

As much as I distrust the bom radar it looks like Tasha is going to urinate back on the coast
Posted by: Tan

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 23:27

Originally Posted By: thomo
The warning system was/is quite adequate, strong wind and heavy rainfall warnings were put out days before it happened.


I couldn't agree more thomo. Appropriate warnings were well in place before any TC warnings or watches.
Posted by: Chookie

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 23:28

what do u mean boomer?
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 23:39

Is the low (she he could not earlier be named) backing up to the coast? I think so... you?
Posted by: Chookie

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 23:44

looks like it is moving SE to me.....
Posted by: Chookie

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 26/12/2010 23:46

looks like it is moving SE to me.....
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 27/12/2010 03:01

Originally Posted By: Tan
Originally Posted By: thomo
The warning system was/is quite adequate, strong wind and heavy rainfall warnings were put out days before it happened.


I couldn't agree more thomo. Appropriate warnings were well in place before any TC warnings or watches.


Yes, but actually stating that there is the possibility of a TC forming really gets peoples attention.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 27/12/2010 12:47

this situation here is perfectly setup for a SEQ TC!!! Bring it!!
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 27/12/2010 14:16

I see that upper low that Nitso was talking about near Fiji has moved up towards the Solomon Islands I know this cannot turn into a cyclone but it has been near Fiji for nearly two weeks, and now heading north west WHY.
Posted by: nocturnal1

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 27/12/2010 22:17

As long as we get a few days of sunshine first ...then great! poke

So basically... next week it is *possible* we could have a TC on our doorstep? (whether it eventuates or not is another matter... something to watch for anyway! smile ) Sure as hell don't need it though...
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 28/12/2010 11:36

Just reading through the old cyclone larry thread. Its sending chills up my spine. What a cyclone....

The bureau unfortunatly didnt get any measured wind gusts that were directly in the centre of the cyclone, most weather stations were north, south and west of the main area of maximum winds. Mount B Kerr recorded 294kmhr, however this was not counted as a Max measured wind gust due to the height of the wind station. Other than that, the only places to record big winds were flinders reef and South johnstone.

Our team has the equipment to measure these wind gusts safely, and im sure the bureau will be very interested in our data when we get wind gusts from the centre of the next major cyclone. If we had this team in 2006, no doubt we could have helped the bom by bringing forward the data which we collected, which would mean it would help them in classifying what category Cyclone larry was upon landfall, as they really had to work of the aftermath damage......
Posted by: WelloMeteo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 28/12/2010 12:20

Quote:

Originally Posted By: Adam Ant
Extended Gfs is pointing towards some more rain next week sometime...




Quote:
Originally Posted By: WelloMeteo
Looks like a cyclone/low crossing the central coast - today is the last day I can cancel my camping booking (5th - 12th) and get a credit for the fees - curious to know how much faith people hold in extended GFS??



Quote:
Originally Posted By: Adam Ant
Ive always liked extended gfs for trough systems, I think it always gives you a ball park figure a week out. However Im not sure on its accuracy for lows. You might be better asking that in the tropical thread...Ec also has a low around mackay on its final day (6 jan). Long way out to call



I've copied the above from the SEQ general weather forum - thoughts anyone?
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 28/12/2010 12:21

Im having a look now.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 28/12/2010 12:24

Just checked EC and couldnt see anything that resembled a tropical low crossing the coast.
Posted by: WelloMeteo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 28/12/2010 12:36

Originally Posted By: Travvv doggy dog
Just checked EC and couldnt see anything that resembled a tropical low crossing the coast.


Thanks Trav - I know it's a long way out, but extended GFS looked nasty - I feel better that EC doesn't agree!
Posted by: Secret Squirrel

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 28/12/2010 17:03

Originally Posted By: Travvv doggy dog
Just reading through the old cyclone larry thread. Its sending chills up my spine. What a cyclone....

The bureau unfortunatly didnt get any measured wind gusts that were directly in the centre of the cyclone, most weather stations were north, south and west of the main area of maximum winds. Mount B Kerr recorded 294kmhr, however this was not counted as a Max measured wind gust due to the height of the wind station. Other than that, the only places to record big winds were flinders reef and South johnstone.

Our team has the equipment to measure these wind gusts safely, and im sure the bureau will be very interested in our data when we get wind gusts from the centre of the next major cyclone. If we had this team in 2006, no doubt we could have helped the bom by bringing forward the data which we collected, which would mean it would help them in classifying what category Cyclone larry was upon landfall, as they really had to work of the aftermath damage......



Hey Mr Dog the army base at Cowley recorded 330k winds on there wind gauge, then it apperently blown over! Thats came from afew resources.
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 28/12/2010 21:10

Rotation at 165E 12S just starting yes!!!!!!

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 28/12/2010 21:59

I can see that too Mick. Been watching it most of the afternoon to see whether any convection develops around the centre.

Can anyone confirm whether its low, mid or upper level?
Posted by: snugaroo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 28/12/2010 22:04

Quite a nice looking eddy there smile Will be interested to hear the opinions!
Posted by: Wet Feet

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 28/12/2010 22:22

Ohhh! Even I can see it! :-D
Posted by: Blueycairns

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 28/12/2010 22:35

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...vir&zoom=&time=
It appears to be an upper level low but do not have much past 180E so hard to tell. If someone has a link past 180 E it may tell a better story.
Posted by: windwanderer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 28/12/2010 22:38

i can't see anything happening, it's an upper level low.

there is no NW moist feeds at lower level out there and there are no highs in the uppers. plus the vortices are poor. chances of cyclones in the near future in my opinion is zero.

if anything were to form now it would need to be closer to the coast to have any chance.
Posted by: windwanderer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 28/12/2010 22:48

gfs has a big upper level high moving over the CS around january 7th. may need to wait till then to have any chance. maybe not.

in my amateur opinion, for now the upper level lows sitting out around 165-180 seem to be blocking development. that and the continual lack of NW winds at lower levels out there.
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 28/12/2010 22:59

As quick as looked good now just about gone thanks for all your imformation
Posted by: marakai

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 01:15

What about at 155 E 8 S nice little eddy with a bit of NW feed.
Posted by: FNQ

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 12:06

I'm with you Marakai, there is something starting up at 155 E. All conditions also look very favourable out there for cyclone development.
Posted by: windwanderer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 12:30

interesting, shear is forecast to increase around 155e 8s which may be a problem.

time will tell. there is a upper level high starting to show up around 165e so time will tell i guess. was that there yesterday?

Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 13:26

.
Originally Posted By: windwanderer
interesting, shear is forecast to increase around 155e 8s which may be a problem.



What image are you looking at to suggest shear will increase windwarmer?

CIMSS imagery provides data only on current tendency of shear rather than a future forecast as far as I can see. Just because it's been increasing doesn't always mean it will continue to do so, it depends on what systems at various levels are forecast to affect the area. So therefore I'm not sure what image you're looking at that tells you that. If you have actually found a vertical wind shear forecast map though I would love to grab that link of you because it would simplify the forecast process heaps and be a valuable tool.
Posted by: windwanderer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 14:05

hi nitso,

i may be off the mark here but i look to the 200-300mb gfs forecasts. if i see an upper low forming i read that as increasing shear. if i see an upper high forming i read that as decreasing shear.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 14:54

Originally Posted By: nitso
.
Originally Posted By: windwanderer
interesting, shear is forecast to increase around 155e 8s which may be a problem.



What image are you looking at to suggest shear will increase windwarmer?

CIMSS imagery provides data only on current tendency of shear rather than a future forecast as far as I can see. Just because it's been increasing doesn't always mean it will continue to do so, it depends on what systems at various levels are forecast to affect the area. So therefore I'm not sure what image you're looking at that tells you that. If you have actually found a vertical wind shear forecast map though I would love to grab that link of you because it would simplify the forecast process heaps and be a valuable tool.


Hey Nitso,
Heres two I have been using. Wind shear actually looks pretty good for the top end up until about next Tuesday. It shows it in m/s so I am assuming anything under 20m/s is good to boarderline.

this one is GFS http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=TA

This one is CMC http://tc.met.psu.edu/shem/index.html (but i cant seem to access it at work frown
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 15:35

something a brewing?

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Wednesday the 29th of December 2010 and valid until end
of Saturday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
There are no significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop
over the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday: Very Low
Friday: Very low
Saturday: Low
Posted by: cyclonecece

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 15:42

I noticed that too MS,bit odd or are they just been cautious with that low in the NT
Posted by: RadioBoi1980

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 15:43

FINGERS CROSSED!
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 15:56

what is that system located around 175E 20S? it is quite large and i have been watching it for most of the day, it seems to be motoring to the NW at a rate of knots?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shwvgms.html
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 16:37

MS, its an upper level low, this is not what we want.
Posted by: RAINALI

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 17:13

What's the difference between an upper level low as opposed to a lower level low? Which one's generally form into cyclones? Sorry for my lack of knowledge.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 18:10

Upper lows are in the upper atmosphere.
Lower level low/surface lows are on surface right above our heads.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 18:14

I think its a mistake by the bom putting the chance as low, no model is looking at a cyclone developing on saturday.

A area of low pressure is expected to develop over the coral sea after the weekend but thats it.

id say its another one of there bad calls.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 18:17

played it cool.

It's will be our turn soon.

Maybe after the new year 2011. smile wink
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 18:18

hell Trav you certainly will not win any friends at BOM
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 18:20

wrong thread
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 18:21

I really cant rate them at the moment. I rung up the local office a few weeks ago asking some questions and they didnt really care less, so bugger them.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 18:25

Cant you see why.

There forcast states - no significant lows are in the region or are expected to develop over the next three days.

yet they put a low chance of a tropical cyclone forming on the weekend......

COME ON !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Explain that? No they dont give any reason WHY they are forcasting a low chance of a cyclone forming. WHy cant they just say, a area of low pressure may develop over the weekend, or maybe the Low developing ( which they have not mentioned ) in the gulf near mornington island is going to get caught by the upper trough in a few days and move back over the cape and into the coral sea.

Not models suggest this, but...its a guessing game with these guys.

Its just way to frustrating, they have no communication between themselves or the public, and it [censored] me to tears. Its not that hard to tell us what they are thinking, the whole way they forcast is done wrong. How hard is it to explain it on a wbsite whaty they may be thinking about the next week.
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 18:35

Agreed but now your talking about politics and thats a hole new ball game
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 18:38

Im not meaning to talk about politics.

All i want is a reason for that forcast. Beacause i cannot see any reason for it. They should be explaining things alot better, thats my biggest point.
Posted by: windwanderer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 18:40

20 m/s is 38 knots or so.

so for a cyclone you would need to 10 m/s or less i think.

nice find btw. i use that gfs site all of the time and never looked at the shear maps.
Posted by: ol mate

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 18:40

I can see why it ....... you to tears, evn me, the amature, un-meteorologically educated person gets annoyed. I mean take the development of Tasha, yes, it was fast, and yes it was only small, but still. Why not issue a watch or a warning for the Low earlier in the day. Just after midnight they udated their Cyclone 3-day outlook which stated moderate chance for development on the Saturday (issued at around 12am Saturday, previous statement issued at 2.30pm Friday said Low chance). They then issue a warning around 1am when everyone is alsleep. Lets not forget a warning is for the possibility of gales, not a definate 100% chance of gales. So if there was the slightest chance, earlier in the afternoon, in my opinion, a warning (as it would of been less than 24 hrs away) should have been issued. Most people awoke the next day to find out about "Ex-clyclone Tasha" and wondered what the media were talking about.
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 18:50

Because the run of the mill public do not care its only us weather nuts that want more of an explanation as to how they come up with these judgment calls
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 18:54

I am not liking the gfs +192 forecast 500 Hpa wind.
Upper Trough amplifying through the coral sea, this means Lows/Cyclones heading SE.
Posted by: mad mick

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 18:55

Just going back to that eddy which was at 165E and is now at 155E sure is rocketing along.

Also lot of cloud coming down from PNG way
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 19:03

At what latitude Mad Mick
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 19:05

Reckon the monsooon trough will have strengthen before we see any more activity of the cyclonic nature
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 19:17

nothing in the models at all trav. just let it go, probably a mistake. we know the qld bom are as expressive in their forecasts as other states.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 20:27

Wonder if this scenario will pan out? it has been pretty much the same for the last few days.


Posted by: ol mate

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 20:29

looks interesting....where abouts is that image from?
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 20:30

Originally Posted By: Inghamite
looks interesting....where abouts is that image from?

It is from here.
http://www.radar.strikeone.net.au/?fuseaction=loops.cola%20%20%20&modelID=4&modelType=18
Posted by: marakai

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 20:41

Nice little eddy starting up about 158E 12S , has it got any chance ? shear seems alright out there.
Posted by: ol mate

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 20:51

Originally Posted By: mission_shak
Originally Posted By: Inghamite
looks interesting....where abouts is that image from?

It is from here.
http://www.radar.strikeone.net.au/?fuseaction=loops.cola%20%20%20&modelID=4&modelType=18


Cheers
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 21:07

Originally Posted By: Travvv doggy dog
Cant you see why.

There forcast states - no significant lows are in the region or are expected to develop over the next three days.

yet they put a low chance of a tropical cyclone forming on the weekend......

COME ON !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Explain that? No they dont give any reason WHY they are forcasting a low chance of a cyclone forming. WHy cant they just say, a area of low pressure may develop over the weekend, or maybe the Low developing ( which they have not mentioned ) in the gulf near mornington island is going to get caught by the upper trough in a few days and move back over the cape and into the coral sea.

Not models suggest this, but...its a guessing game with these guys.

Its just way to frustrating, they have no communication between themselves or the public, and it [censored] me to tears. Its not that hard to tell us what they are thinking, the whole way they forcast is done wrong. How hard is it to explain it on a wbsite whaty they may be thinking about the next week.


lol, the low that can not be mentioned or named.
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 21:25

Speaking of she who cannot be named methinks the demon that spawned her will be back between TV and Cairns over the next couple of days.
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 22:58

I've done a quick search of the net to try and find whether upper lows can develop into cyclones and found a story about the cut-off low that formed from an upper level low in the South Atlantic and went on to become Hurricane Catarina.

I wonder if were seeing something similar occur with the upper low at 174E 15S. It seems to have a fair vigorous circulation, is moving equatorwards and it does seem that convection is starting to wrap into the centre. I'd like to go back a few days to have a look at how this upper low formed.
Posted by: nocturnal1

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 29/12/2010 23:42

So that low off SEQ along the trough line, it's going to stay as a weak low and then fizzle out soon, I suppose...

I think something will form next week sometime. MSLP charts look quiet over the Coral Sea... I'd like to think that something's brewing! wink
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/12/2010 00:10

anything the forms in the next week or so will be pushed SE as we are expected to have an upper trough along the east coast
Posted by: cyclonecece

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/12/2010 09:47

Been updated and have corrected the mistake IDQ10810

UPDATED
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 6:56am EST on Thursday the 30th of December 2010 and valid until end
of Saturday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
There are no significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop
over the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday: Very Low
Friday: Very low
Saturday: Very Low
Posted by: FNQ Bunyip

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/12/2010 16:07

Originally Posted By: Inghamite
I can see why it ....... you to tears, evn me, the amature, un-meteorologically educated person gets annoyed. I mean take the development of Tasha, yes, it was fast, and yes it was only small, but still. Why not issue a watch or a warning for the Low earlier in the day. Just after midnight they udated their Cyclone 3-day outlook which stated moderate chance for development on the Saturday (issued at around 12am Saturday, previous statement issued at 2.30pm Friday said Low chance). They then issue a warning around 1am when everyone is alsleep. Lets not forget a warning is for the possibility of gales, not a definate 100% chance of gales. So if there was the slightest chance, earlier in the afternoon, in my opinion, a warning (as it would of been less than 24 hrs away) should have been issued. Most people awoke the next day to find out about "Ex-clyclone Tasha" and wondered what the media were talking about.



Just back too this point ,, WA have put a "L" on the main oz map in the cyclone page today around lunch .. this thing is still over land , may or may not form and the info is out.. On the other hand QLD had wind warnings out for shipping ect mentioned a low in the printed stuff if you look hard enough wink and did not put anything on the map till early hours of the morning ...friday morn the ABC bom chat it was mentioned as , not expected to form , however it was noted , so why not put it bloody symbol on the map...

why keep telling the general public to check their site if there is _-_- all info too see....

my rant , got it off my chest now .. thanks for listening smile

cheers
Posted by: CraigA74

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/12/2010 17:47

Originally Posted By: FNQ Bunyip
Just back too this point ,, WA have put a "L" on the main oz map in the cyclone page today around lunch .. this thing is still over land , may or may not form and the info is out.. On the other hand QLD had wind warnings out for shipping ect mentioned a low in the printed stuff if you look hard enough wink and did not put anything on the map till early hours of the morning ...friday morn the ABC bom chat it was mentioned as , not expected to form , however it was noted , so why not put it bloody symbol on the map...

why keep telling the general public to check their site if there is _-_- all info too see....

my rant , got it off my chest now .. thanks for listening smile

cheers


I don't want to start the whole WA V Qld debate again,which has been flogged to death on these forums, but the Qld BOM should definately take a leaf outta the WA BOM's book. The whole warning system is a lot more proffessional over here
Posted by: tag

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/12/2010 18:32

Agreed.After livivng in Port hedland for seven years the system WA uses is great.QLD needs to step out of the dark ages,and change / upgrade the warning system. Are they scared of change or are they scared of the public reaction to a change.????.
Anyway,muggy here with slight drizzle and low cloud on the sarine radio tower hill.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/12/2010 18:34

can we get back to the Cs now there is nothing happening or going to happen for the next week so everyone settle down a bit and enjoy the new year
Posted by: windwanderer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/12/2010 19:56

hmm, wondering what the thoughts are,

there looks like some mild convergence at 150e 5s,









seems to also be an upper level high over it with very low shear. wondering what others thoughts are?

Posted by: Guldumar

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/12/2010 20:33

Yes, does look interesting. Just have to wait and see what the night brings. On the latest BOM IR loop looks like the western side has died, but hey night time can do some strange things. One can only hope smile
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/12/2010 22:15

For those interested in the warning debate re QLD and WA this might be worth a look... http://www.cairns.com.au/article/2010/12/29/142111_local-news.html
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/12/2010 22:20

Do not totally agree with squid. Do not be surprised if the trough and an accompanying low reappears over the Cape on Sunday.... then off we go... will it saw back down or go to brew in the gulf?
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/12/2010 22:31

if something appears over the cape it will go west into the GOC and prlly soot off into the NT
if something does happen to develop in the CS it will shoot off to the Se with an upper trough forcast to be along the east coast
Posted by: marakai

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/12/2010 22:33

Originally Posted By: windwanderer
hmm, wondering what the thoughts are,

there looks like some mild convergence at 150e 5s,

seems to also be an upper level high over it with very low shear. wondering what others thoughts are?



Does seem to be getting more organised and dragging some feed in, be interesting to watch and see what the Guru's think.
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/12/2010 22:47

Squid, I'd be backing the gulf... but that is just gut.
Posted by: Gomo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 30/12/2010 22:50

You are dreaming. It is going west. Think of something else.
Posted by: Novak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 00:19

Something is definitely spinning up out there:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgms.html
Posted by: Cairns ALF

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 00:26

Agreed, the 170e,15s (New Caledonia) looking interesting.
Posted by: Cairns ALF

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 00:42

Then again looking at this
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/austeast/movies/gmsirn/gmsirnjava.html

and also not sure how to read these http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...wvir&zoom=&time

but this looks like something is blocking it in the Coral Sea anyways yeah?
Posted by: Cairns ALF

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 00:55

Also if you look at the SST


The anomaly shows the water out there hotter than normal

Interesting
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 07:14

Guys, its an upper level low, (I'm assuming your talking about the obvious swirl)

HAS IT GOT THE SAME STRUCTURE AS A TROPICAL LOW? NO

WILL IT DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL LOW? NO

First of all, the low does look somewhat like a tropical low or cyclone on satellite, and it is a large Low Pressure system with inward spiraling bands, like a cyclone. But it is mainly at upper levels of the atmosphere (called an "upper low"), and the surface reflection of the system is weak, with unremarkable pressure and winds -- unlike a tropical low or cyclone.

With the lack of a significant surface weather system (containing moisture or energy), the low can't produce its own storms (where a tropical low/cyclone creates its own energy to produce storms due to its structure). What the upper low does, however, is it presses colder air down closer to the Earth's surface than it would normally be this time of year (an inverted dome, if you will, a tropical low/cyclone has rising air at the centre of it). This causes lower temperatures at the surface to be lower than usual )... but it also causes the atmosphere to become more unstable, and this is key for rain and storms to develop- similar to a mid level trough.



Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 07:29

I cant believe the excitement over a upper low, when we have been saying nothings going to happen in the coral sea for the last week tempest wink
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 07:41

Thank you Tempest, we keep saying it every time lately, but thanks for the easy to understand definition.

Anyway, France Met Office predicts chances for a TC for the Fiji area increase in 2-3 weeks time to almost a 50% probability, so if you're really interested in a TC hitting New Cal or Fiji please have a look in 2-3 weeks time. Perhaps though discussions for rotations around 170 East are better suited to the world thread than the Coral Sea thread, unless of course they are displaying obvious long term potential movement to the west.

On a more local note, Met France does predict an elevated chance of a TC affecting the area 140 - 160E and 15 - 30S (Yes I know it's basically the whole of the Coral Sea and some of the Tasman as well LOL) in week 2 after the 6th of January. They are predicting about a 30% chance of a TC occurring in that time frame. Unfortunately, looking at the broadscale longer term upper pattern, that probably happens about the same time as a long wave trough system which just wants to sit over eastern Qld and Western Coral Sea - so off to the SE it'll go frown

Still early days yet and hopefully the upper forecast may change between now and the end of next week.

Obviously the unknown in the scenario, is the developing MT which should begin to kick off in the next couple of days. A moderate HIGH of 1048 Hpa and a mid lat LOW in the Northern hemisphere are combining to strengthen the NE trade flow in the Northern Hemisphere, that pulse of strong trade winds should assist in redeveloping the terribly weak trough over the next few days. The LOW weakens and moves away, but luckily the HIGHS remain over 1040 odd, so the monsoon trough may actually stick around this time. Let's just hope for the sake of Central Queensland, that the next upper trough that also sticks around isn't going to be too strong. Another combination of these systems so soon would result in a flood of biblical proportions.

GFS still harbours this morbid fascination to attack the Gulf of Carpentaria with a strong cyclone (and continually nail WA with cyclones - I think this developing LOW is like the fourth cyclone of the season to be progged to develop there). It's been forecasting it for about three weeks. I guess if you forecast a cyclone for the 16 or so weeks of a cyclone season, you gotta get one right. On a serious note could the model be struggling with the high SST's over the Indian Ocean and Gulf, and could that over-emphasis of SST's in cyclogenesis be causing the model to over-emphasise cyclogenesis? I notice that it's less inclined to do the same over the Coral Sea, I do believe when i checked a few days ago, most Coral Sea temps are below those of NW WA and GOC

Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 08:34

Originally Posted By: Tempest
Guys, its an upper level low, (I'm assuming your talking about the obvious swirl)

HAS IT GOT THE SAME STRUCTURE AS A TROPICAL LOW? NO

WILL IT DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL LOW? NO

First of all, the low does look somewhat like a tropical low or cyclone on satellite, and it is a large Low Pressure system with inward spiraling bands, like a cyclone. But it is mainly at upper levels of the atmosphere (called an "upper low"), and the surface reflection of the system is weak, with unremarkable pressure and winds -- unlike a tropical low or cyclone.

With the lack of a significant surface weather system (containing moisture or energy), the low can't produce its own storms (where a tropical low/cyclone creates its own energy to produce storms due to its structure). What the upper low does, however, is it presses colder air down closer to the Earth's surface than it would normally be this time of year (an inverted dome, if you will, a tropical low/cyclone has rising air at the centre of it). This causes lower temperatures at the surface to be lower than usual )... but it also causes the atmosphere to become more unstable, and this is key for rain and storms to develop- similar to a mid level trough.



I mentioned this upper level low in a post yesterday after doing some research into whether upper lows ever form into cyclones.

The best I could find was a story on Hurricane Catarina in the South Atlatic which formed from an upper level low which developed into a cut off low and then developed tropical characteristics as it was forced equatorwards.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 09:13

Thats whats so fascinating about low pressure systems in the tropics, either tropical or high level, they are rogue systems - minds of their own, I still dont understand what theory they obey to. When was the last time we saw an upper level low barrell itself at a rate of knots towards our coast at this time of the year.

I do agree with you Nitso regarding diffrent SST's b/n the indian ocean and coral sea, however, what we do have on the east coast is a much higher moisture content in our soil compared to the west, and I'm talking about a huge area, what affect this has on the MT, I dont know.
Posted by: Cairns ALF

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 09:14

Thanks Tempest, no so much that we are excited, more just trying to understand. that is by far the best explaination I have seen of the differences (for a layman like me). I have seen people talking of upper lows but I have never understood them. (now at least I understand the basics of them at least)

Will sit and watch and learn... cheers guys
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 09:37

Cheers Alf, actually, now is the perfect time to witness the differenc between a tropical low and high level low, check out the the sat pic, have a look at the developing low/cyclone over in the west, and look at the upper in the east, huge difference yes.
Posted by: Dark&Stormy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 12:42

Looks to me something is starting to spin up east of the cape on the WV loop.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shwvgms.html
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 12:44

I am with you there that need a little bit of watching..... grin wink
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 13:41

Originally Posted By: Locke
Originally Posted By: Tempest
Guys, its an upper level low, (I'm assuming your talking about the obvious swirl)

HAS IT GOT THE SAME STRUCTURE AS A TROPICAL LOW? NO

WILL IT DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL LOW? NO

First of all, the low does look somewhat like a tropical low or cyclone on satellite, and it is a large Low Pressure system with inward spiraling bands, like a cyclone. But it is mainly at upper levels of the atmosphere (called an "upper low"), and the surface reflection of the system is weak, with unremarkable pressure and winds -- unlike a tropical low or cyclone.

With the lack of a significant surface weather system (containing moisture or energy), the low can't produce its own storms (where a tropical low/cyclone creates its own energy to produce storms due to its structure). What the upper low does, however, is it presses colder air down closer to the Earth's surface than it would normally be this time of year (an inverted dome, if you will, a tropical low/cyclone has rising air at the centre of it). This causes lower temperatures at the surface to be lower than usual )... but it also causes the atmosphere to become more unstable, and this is key for rain and storms to develop- similar to a mid level trough.



I mentioned this upper level low in a post yesterday after doing some research into whether upper lows ever form into cyclones.

The best I could find was a story on Hurricane Catarina in the South Atlatic which formed from an upper level low which developed into a cut off low and then developed tropical characteristics as it was forced equatorwards.


Hey Locke, I just read some info on that, very intersting, here is the link
Catarina
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 14:35

Fascinating eh?

I found another article that explained the low formed as a cut off low from an upper level trough. The rest is covered in the article you've linked. Here is a link to the article I was reading.

https://courseware.e-education.psu.edu/public/meteo/upperlevel_lows.html


I'd like to find out more on what Bosart and Davis have discovered in relation to their "tropical transitions".

When looking at the characteristics of the upper level low that started this discussion I wondered whether or not it might have been a candidate for this type of "tropical transition".

I can understand what your saying when you talk about the difference between a tropical low and an upper level low. Catarina though has made me wonder whether we should speak in absolutes though when saying an upper level low will not become a tropical low.

With regards our upper low, if I'm reading the charts correctly, its about to encounter some significant wind shear so the chance of it doing a "Caterina" seem slim.

On a side note, is that a surface low off the central QLD coast I'm seeing. The wind readings at SFC and 850mb on BSCH's site would seem to indicate it is. If so then it appears to be moving back towards the coast which is what I would expect given the steering currents up to 500mb.


Posted by: dylos

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 14:44

the discussion in here is fairly clear that this upper low will not turn into a tropical cyclone, it has to many factors against it to allow for the transition into a tropical low/cyclone, so no it doesnt need watching, just be patient and wait until the first month of the new year, you will start to see things unfold for the coral sea than, and really i dont think anyone in queensland is wanting a cyclone to develop atm anyways
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 15:31

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Friday the 31st of December 2010 and valid until end of
Monday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
There are no significant lows in the region, however the monsoon trough is
forecast to strengthen slightly over the northern Coral Sea in the next 3 days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday: Very Low
Sunday: Very low
Monday: Low
Posted by: marakai

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 19:13

Just what is that on the Cape?
Posted by: mscactus

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 19:33

Did I imagine them saying on the news that it was a low with cyclone potential up there at the tip of Qld?
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 20:11

They are talkin [censored] again.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 20:14

A low is forcasted to develop then move SE. Thats it.
Posted by: marakai

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 21:17

So whats to stop that circulation on the cape from forming ?
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 23:09

I think they may change the cyclone outlook status to LOW whenever the MT is around. According to their 4 day charts, the MT will be around Cairns/Cooktown on Monday?
Posted by: Dawoodman

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 31/12/2010 23:14

may have go it mixed up with the one in WA???
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 00:33

.
Posted by: grumbleguts

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 01:27

.
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 01:51

.
Posted by: Gomo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 02:05

.
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 09:12

Originally Posted By: marakai
So whats to stop that circulation on the cape from forming ?


marakai

I believe the cape circulation was an upper disturbance as well, there was no LLCC.
Posted by: MikeM

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 09:16

you'll get circulations everyday in the CS. shear
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 09:31

the Mt is expected to move south once again over the coming days moving down towards the central coast so if anything forms it will still go to the SE with an upper trough off the east coast however this upper trough is expected to move west overland so stearing conditions may become good for a any low/tc to move towards the coast south of the MT
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 09:58

From the Vanuatu met.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Vanuatu issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological Service, Port Vila at 06:00 am Saturday, 1 January 2011

A low pressure (1008hPA) has developed over the southern islands of Vanuatu and extended its trough northwest and southeastward, slow moving south southwest. The potential for the system to develop further in the next two to three days is low.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 10:03

Happy new year! smile
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 11:54

So this coming wednsday GFS believes that the low will develop along the monsoonal trough. Interesting, cant wait to see ECs forcast at 5pm.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 11:55

Just realised it has it movign South east haha. Whoops

It then develops another cyclone of the coast of cape flattery two days later, which then moves south east again.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 12:10

Winds will become fresh to strong along the southern coast as a low develops over the southern Coral Sea.

Outlook for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday
The low in the southern Coral Sea will move slowly to the south-west during the period allowing winds along the southern coast to ease.

How does that make sense, i think they meant South east>?
Posted by: dylos

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 15:09

this will be a low that develops in the southern coral sea, and it will be moving south west, the other low that is on the gfs is a seperate low
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 15:16

It's looks like this low is really developing here.

It's need a bit of watching.....

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
Posted by: Maclaw

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 15:30

ARe you guys for serious
Posted by: dylos

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 16:03

its a la nina...every cloud has to be watched
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 16:03

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Friday the 31st of December 2010 and valid until end of
Monday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
There are no significant lows in the region, however the monsoon trough is
forecast to strengthen slightly over the northern Coral Sea in the next 3 days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday: Very Low
Sunday: Very low
Monday: Low
Posted by: DeniseEm

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 16:05

I seriously hope not Maclaw our systems out here wouldnt cope frown
Posted by: ol mate

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 16:28

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 3:26pm EST on Saturday the 1st of January 2011 and valid until end of
Tuesday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
There are no significant lows in the region, however the monsoon trough is
forecast to strengthen slightly over the northern Coral Sea in the next 3 days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday: Very Low
Monday: Very low
Tuesday: Very Low
Posted by: cyclone man

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 16:36

this low is definatley something to watch i reckon out at -160 http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 16:52

Originally Posted By: cyclone man
this low is definatley something to watch i reckon out at -160 http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

Isn't the LOW at 160E the same one that was at 170E a couple of days and was said to be an upper low?
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 17:08

Hmm GFS scenario pans out NQ and FNQ could see bulk rain from now until Tuesday night and then a TC develop near Willis on Wednesday (don't worry no chance of it ever affecting the coastline directly - upper winds are mod to fresh WNW/NW)
Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 17:18

Hey Nitso, what's your thoughts on the latest (00z) GFS run with respect to the Coral Sea cyclone developing later this week and then tracking SEwards to then what looks like merge with the the Tasman Low (or at least the TC go extratropical?)
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 17:36

Yeah it does look as though it gets quickly captured by the trough system and moves very fast to the SE and undergoes extra tropical transition.

Ec's run should be coming out soon, it'll probably give a more realistic perspective on what will happen. You have to remember that GFS wants to spin up anything it can get its hands on. If we were to base judgements on GFS model forecasts, we'd have a new record tropical cyclone season each year.

As for the GFS movement scenario - mid level ridging won't become established until late next week (about the time it develops a new GOC LOW and pushes it west) so unless something develops next weekend or later, it'll get whisked away to the SE due to a middle and upper trough.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 18:17

Originally Posted By: mission_shak
From the Vanuatu met.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Vanuatu issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological Service, Port Vila at 06:00 am Saturday, 1 January 2011

A low pressure (1008hPA) has developed over the southern islands of Vanuatu and extended its trough northwest and southeastward, slow moving south southwest. The potential for the system to develop further in the next two to three days is low.


I'm not sure why they took so long. It was a weak surface feature yesterday. EC aren't interested in it becoming any more than that either. Slack gradients seem to be the order of the day.
Posted by: RadioBoi1980

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 19:32

Originally Posted By: Travvv doggy dog
So this coming wednsday GFS believes that the low will develop along the monsoonal trough. Interesting, cant wait to see ECs forcast at 5pm.
Originally Posted By: Travvv doggy dog
So this coming wednsday GFS believes that the low will develop along the monsoonal trough. Interesting, cant wait to see ECs forcast at 5pm.
So what did the ECs have to say Travvy??
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 20:08

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: mission_shak
From the Vanuatu met.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Vanuatu issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological Service, Port Vila at 06:00 am Saturday, 1 January 2011

A low pressure (1008hPA) has developed over the southern islands of Vanuatu and extended its trough northwest and southeastward, slow moving south southwest. The potential for the system to develop further in the next two to three days is low.


I'm not sure why they took so long. It was a weak surface feature yesterday. EC aren't interested in it becoming any more than that either. Slack gradients seem to be the order of the day.


This is the upper low that will "never become a tropical low" that has moved west from about 175 E over the past few days. It seems to be starting to affect surface pressures now.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 20:58

hey Nitso. This might be of interest to you. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi...06&set=Tropical

And others.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 21:30

Originally Posted By: Locke
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: mission_shak
From the Vanuatu met.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Vanuatu issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological Service, Port Vila at 06:00 am Saturday, 1 January 2011

A low pressure (1008hPA) has developed over the southern islands of Vanuatu and extended its trough northwest and southeastward, slow moving south southwest. The potential for the system to develop further in the next two to three days is low.


I'm not sure why they took so long. It was a weak surface feature yesterday. EC aren't interested in it becoming any more than that either. Slack gradients seem to be the order of the day.


This is the upper low that will "never become a tropical low" that has moved west from about 175 E over the past few days. It seems to be starting to affect surface pressures now.


BoM marked on their "latest surface chart" this afternoon (as a surface low. They don't mark upper lows) and it has since disolved.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 21:37

the circulation at 160E looks to be organising itself pretty rapidly atm.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 22:15

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Locke
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: mission_shak
From the Vanuatu met.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Vanuatu issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological Service, Port Vila at 06:00 am Saturday, 1 January 2011

A low pressure (1008hPA) has developed over the southern islands of Vanuatu and extended its trough northwest and southeastward, slow moving south southwest. The potential for the system to develop further in the next two to three days is low.


I'm not sure why they took so long. It was a weak surface feature yesterday. EC aren't interested in it becoming any more than that either. Slack gradients seem to be the order of the day.


This is the upper low that will "never become a tropical low" that has moved west from about 175 E over the past few days. It seems to be starting to affect surface pressures now.


BoM marked on their "latest surface chart" this afternoon (as a surface low. They don't mark upper lows) and it has since disolved.


For clarification purposes .It certainly won't become our next TC.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 22:22

Originally Posted By: Locke
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: mission_shak
From the Vanuatu met.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Vanuatu issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological Service, Port Vila at 06:00 am Saturday, 1 January 2011

A low pressure (1008hPA) has developed over the southern islands of Vanuatu and extended its trough northwest and southeastward, slow moving south southwest. The potential for the system to develop further in the next two to three days is low.


I'm not sure why they took so long. It was a weak surface feature yesterday. EC aren't interested in it becoming any more than that either. Slack gradients seem to be the order of the day.


This is the upper low that will "never become a tropical low" that has moved west from about 175 E over the past few days. It seems to be starting to affect surface pressures now.


Well Locke, I'll have to eat my words, if this is the same system, then I am totally amazed. The latest upper wind analysis still show clockwise upper winds though??
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 22:22

Originally Posted By: ColdFront


For clarification purposes .It certainly won't become our next TC.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us


??? how does that clarify anything???
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 22:38

It doesn't. I find it irritating at the number of people posting in these forums saying what a system will or won't do without providing any reasoning as to why this is so. Weather is seldom absolute. Whilst some scenarios have extremely low probabilities of occurring, the factors which determine cyclogenesis are far too complex to speak in such absolutes.

Happy to say its extremely unlikely a system will transition to a tropical cyclone. However when you say something will never happen your setting yourself up to be proven wrong eventually.

I've been watching this system closely for the past 3 days. People said its an upper low therefore it will never become a TC. I found links on the net which say whilst its extremely rare for an upper low to transitions to a tropical system it is not impossible. Fine, there might be good reasons why this particular system couldnt make thhe tropical transition (shear or other factors) but if you think so I'd have a little more respect for your posts if you explain why this one won't given your obvious sound understanding of how these transitions occur. Simply saying its an upper low, it won't develop into a cyclone because of that doesnt cut it for me I'm sorry.

I'm still more than happy to concede this system is unlikely to become a TC. Thats really not a tough call to make since the majority of tropical disturbances never make TC status anyway and its even rarer for one to evolve from an upper low. But it certainly looks like more than just an upper low now and there does appear to be more convection there than there was 48 hrs ago.
Posted by: MikeM

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 22:42

locke people can have their opinion without too much justification. Normally its a gut feeling from people who have experiences in this area. My gut feeling is that it won't become a cyclone, but who really cares if i'm wrong, really.
Posted by: dylos

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 22:43

if you read a back for maybe the last 10 pages i think a few people have explained the reasoning as to why it wont transition and its pointless to keep repeating the same information over and over.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 22:58

locke, you do make very good points and i thank you for posting them, and also your efforts in looking up historical facts on upper lows. it hasnt gone unnoticed.
we have alot of new and inexperienced members who think that every single rotation will make it to a cyclone. many of our more experienced members have explained, time and time again since november why it may or may not and it can all become very repitive for them.
i have had personal complaints over the problems, but whilst people are learning this issue will remain. sadly its a catch22, but after several months of explainations some members do get sick of rewritting the same thing and no one listening or learning. that is why this thread is at 109pages with only 1 decent tropical low for the season so far.

i can only ask that those members who are learning, look at all the available data, check the shear, vorticity, upper winds etc. the links are available on the main tropical page HERE and come to their own conclusion on why it may or may not form. Posting "the rotation at 160E looks good" is not going to teach yourself or anyone else anything.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 23:09

Why do we may a few more change to the weather zone forums since it's is a new year Mick10 to help us all that are leaning at the moment would that be a good idea mate or bad idea?

Make it a bit new and as well let us all know where to make a post and make a new threads and what to do as well why do you add a little pictures to help them you got to update the weather zone froums again mate.

It's only a idea.
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 23:13

it is all good i think that some people need to read more before posting and other need to settle down a bit before posting relax it is only the begining of the year still got a good 4 months of the season yet plenty of time for a tc or 3 to chat about

chill out and smile
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 23:23

I am with you there on that one. smile wink
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 23:32

I agree and disagree with certain things being said.

Like I have said time and time again in the past, once a disturbance looks set to go to a TC status then someone here will create a dedicated topic to that event. Up until then, this is a general topic relating to the season! If so called experts get pissy with repeated threads about the sniff of a low or interesting cloud formation, then dont respond! its pretty simple really. EVERYONE is still learning here no matter how experienced you may think you are and it also doesnt hurt to sharpen your knowledge by proving or disproving certain topics as well.

Now generally, the best way for people to learn is for themselves. Point people to the links you know or the links area of the site. Tell them to google stuff and LEARN for themselves as Locke has been doing. Otherwise every T,D & H will keep asking the repeated questions etc etc. Let them discuss amongst themselves until they find the answers they are looking for and maybe try taking a guiding approach rather than an annoyed one.

my 2c

rant over
Posted by: MikeM

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 01/01/2011 23:39

I agree mick10. But there will always be new members, who's thirst for info is great. But it is a forum i spose with freedom of speech and opinions and none should be ignored. I must admit 10 years ago i thought every little eddy was going to be a cyclone wanda - takes time to realise learn, which is a good thing.
Posted by: DeniseEm

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/01/2011 00:37

Maybe its time to REVIVE the Cyclone Q & A thread that i found quiet usefull last year to ask questions on. http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/854501/Cyclone_Q_A
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/01/2011 01:52

Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
hey Nitso. This might be of interest to you. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi...06&set=Tropical

And others.


Poncho - fantastic site have bookmarked it - first time I've been able to find such comprehensive charts of shear tendency for both GFS and NOGAPS (NOGAPS is one of the worst performers, but hey it's still a resource all the same)

Thanks very much for taking the time to look around for it much appreciated smile
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/01/2011 03:09

Originally Posted By: nitso
Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
hey Nitso. This might be of interest to you. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi...06&set=Tropical

And others.


Poncho - fantastic site have bookmarked it - first time I've been able to find such comprehensive charts of shear tendency for both GFS and NOGAPS (NOGAPS is one of the worst performers, but hey it's still a resource all the same)

Thanks very much for taking the time to look around for it much appreciated smile


Hey, no worries, glad I could help. I dont visit that site much anymore but it used to be one of the only early sites (5-10 years ago) that had a decent range of models to check for surf forecasting. Its also a pity they dont update there site certificate as the security warning is a little off putting.

I was trying to find a way to get onto to ACCESS T but you need permission from BoM. This was the only local one I have found that has mean steering forecasts. Apart from that I would really like to know if CIMSS has medium range forecast charts and how to access them.

Checked out your guys site, looks like its coming along nicely. Look forward to seeing some good action. The weather school looks awesome too.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/01/2011 03:29

Originally Posted By: Locke
It doesn't. I find it irritating at the number of people posting in these forums saying what a system will or won't do without providing any reasoning as to why this is so. Weather is seldom absolute. Whilst some scenarios have extremely low probabilities of occurring, the factors which determine cyclogenesis are far too complex to speak in such absolutes.

Happy to say its extremely unlikely a system will transition to a tropical cyclone. However when you say something will never happen your setting yourself up to be proven wrong eventually.

I've been watching this system closely for the past 3 days. People said its an upper low therefore it will never become a TC. I found links on the net which say whilst its extremely rare for an upper low to transitions to a tropical system it is not impossible. Fine, there might be good reasons why this particular system couldnt make thhe tropical transition (shear or other factors) but if you think so I'd have a little more respect for your posts if you explain why this one won't given your obvious sound understanding of how these transitions occur. Simply saying its an upper low, it won't develop into a cyclone because of that doesnt cut it for me I'm sorry.

I'm still more than happy to concede this system is unlikely to become a TC. Thats really not a tough call to make since the majority of tropical disturbances never make TC status anyway and its even rarer for one to evolve from an upper low. But it certainly looks like more than just an upper low now and there does appear to be more convection there than there was 48 hrs ago.



For those who don't know - WHY WOULD AN UPPER LOW BE A BAD THING FOR A TC?
Because tropical convective systems release used energy from their convective uplift into the upper-levels of the atmosphere so there has to be a feature above the system to remove the waste. Because the high pressure system would expand the atmosphere above the storm system and the winds would then remove the waste from the system. This exhaust would then allow the system to continue cycling new energy and, thus, new convective development at the surface.

Now what does an Upper LOW do?
The UPPER LOW would contract the atmosphere and reduce the amount of air for the waste to escape to. Also, the winds around the UPPER low would be nearly identical to the winds around the surface cyclone. So that would mean that the UPPER LOW would effectively be suffocating the low level cyclone by compressing (stacking) the air above it. Even if the cyclone were drawing in energy at the lower levels, it would have no means of removing the used energy in the upper levels. In effect, the storm system would become “full” and it would choke on itself.

A really bad example but something anyone can think of is: Imagine your car, when you start to run the engine, you need somewhere for the byproducts of combustion to go - enter the exhaust/muffler. Now what would happen to your car if you blocked the muffler - you completely sealed it off and those by-products had nowhere to go? You guessed it - you wouldn't have a car that could sustain combustion for very long. Almost identical as to why we need an UPPER HIGH over a TC - the removal of waste from all the convection firing in it.

I agree Locke, certainly unlikely to form into a tropical cyclone, but never say never. We need to be aware that the TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) also has quite an impact on TC's:
The TUTT is a meso-synoptic upper cold low that has been identified as an aid to genesis in the Pacific (Nth and Sth) and the Atlantic Oceans (Nth). It can be identified on satellite imagery as a clear region with widely scattered, small convective cells (although I'm still struggling to see it). However I can't for the life of me find a TUTT in the region out there digging south towards the LOW that we're looking at (TUTT's dig south as opposed to your traditional mid lat troughs which dig northwards). The Upper LOW seems to be on the western edge of a mid latitude trough and not a TUTT. The mere presence of a trough system is allowing that comnvection to sustain itself and is stopping the system from 'choking' itself. However, it's a big jump to go from sustaining itself (which it's only just doing) to deepening and becoming a warm cored TC.


I'm still very much learning about TUTT's myself and how to analyse them, predict them and their effects on TC genesis and intensification/dissipation. Hopefully should know enough about them to put into practice later this season smile They have a particularly strong effect on systems north of 15S.

My personal suggestion is that the strong NNE winds may push the upper circulation SSW and into the Coral Sea - perhapos it then becomes this cold cored LOW that models have been picking up over the southern coral sea/Nthn Tasman?? Just my guess.

Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/01/2011 04:42

wrong thread.
Posted by: He who once was ITN

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/01/2011 04:54

Upper level lows are cold cored - upper level highs are warm cored.

Cold air aloft promotes instability - so there are often disorganised thunderstorms in the vicinity of upper cold cored systems. However, air circulating inwards at the top of the atmosphere has only one way to go - downwards - and generally has very low water content - so the convection is generally isolated and sparse.

Can upper lows produce TC's? In rare instances yes - but under very limited circumstances. Firstly the spin associated with the upper low has to be exported to the low levels (through thunderstrom downdrafts). The system then needs to heat the mid and upper levels (through latent heat release from thunderstorms) because tropical cyclones are warm cored (warm air = less dense airmass = lower pressure). Finally an outflow regime needs to replace the inflow regime at the top of the atmosphere.

This all takes a lot of time - perhaps 4 to 6 days. It does happen in the western Pacific - but not every season. Maybe every 3rd or 4th season.

TUTTS/Upper Lows are terms that are commonly interchanged - and it is true that TUTTS can aid formation indirectly. Whilst within the TUTT/Upper low air is generally descending, there can be regions near inflection points, or at the apex of troughs, where strong upper outflow exists. This can act on a pre-existing surface feature and assist in the spin up process.

There are two upper lows on this chart .. its easier to see the inflow on the eastern upper low ..



There is upper divergence equatorward and to the east of these systems .. surface features fortuitously under this outflow can get a development "boost".

Posted by: He who once was ITN

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/01/2011 05:00

Originally Posted By: nitso
Now what does an Upper LOW do?
The UPPER LOW would contract the atmosphere and reduce the amount of air for the waste to escape to. Also, the winds around the UPPER low would be nearly identical to the winds around the surface cyclone. So that would mean that the UPPER LOW would effectively be suffocating the low level cyclone by compressing (stacking) the air above it. Even if the cyclone were drawing in energy at the lower levels, it would have no means of removing the used energy in the upper levels. In effect, the storm system would become “full” and it would choke on itself.

Whilst I can see what you're trying to say hear Nitso - there is no such thing as "used energy". I suspect you mean mass.

For pressures to fall there needs to be an net export of mass from the system - if there is inflow an the low levels there needs to be export of mass (and stronger export) at the upper levels.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/01/2011 08:01

Locke, no ones having a go at you mate, its just that the chances of it to convert to a tropical low was almost nil, it may have but it looks like its going to be washed out.

The upper winds analysis always indicated it was an upper level low, no use looking at sat pics beacause they paint another picture. My opnion was that it was not going to develop into a tropical low because it did not have the typical structure to do so.

Other members such as Nitso backed my prognosis.

It still does not look like its has developed into a tropical low, lets wait and see.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/01/2011 08:20

Locke, also, as I said, the article on Hurricane Catarina was interesting, however, Catarina started off as a subtropical low, very siimilar to our east coast lows, strong surface low without the high-topped convection. The chances of Catarina developing into a hurricane was much higher than the low we have been discussing.

This low is an upper sytstem, and I still believe it wont develop into a typical tropical low.
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/01/2011 08:23

Thanks to all those who have contributed over the last few pages it has been an excellent read.

I would just like to add, I find looking at the MTSAT Visible Sat Pic the best was to pick up Low Level Circulations as opposed to the MTSAT Water Vapor Pic which is good for picking up upper lows and upper highs. (also good for determining Dry vs Moist Air (Relative Humidity) near LLCC)

MTSAT Visible

MTSAT Water Vapor

Please note Visible Sat Pic is only 100% beneficial during daylight hours it switches to IR during the night. You need the sun to see the low level cloud structures.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/01/2011 08:30

Originally Posted By: He who once was ITN

Whilst I can see what you're trying to say hear Nitso - there is no such thing as "used energy". I suspect you mean mass.

For pressures to fall there needs to be an net export of mass from the system - if there is inflow an the low levels there needs to be export of mass (and stronger export) at the upper levels.


Hi ITN

Thanks for the follow up post. Yes, sorry I was talking about mass (the removal of) as opposed to energy - 2AM in the morning and the words don't come out as well LOL. Would love to rack your brain further on TUTT's though, especially how to spot them on a chart (UCAR's Met Ed program has helped me out a lot, but they don't give many chart/satellite examples) or on satellite.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/01/2011 08:59

That was a couple of the most useful of 56 pages of discussion on this thread. Nitso-brilliaint laymans explanation of the effects of upper highs and lows on cyclogenisis. Being fairly new to this myself these sort of explanations give a better grounding from which to then do my own research. A lot of very knowledgable people find it hard to explain things in terms that your average idiot likke me can understand so keep it up. As for the newbies. Make sure you look for things yourself as it can be addictve and all too easy too just throw out cheap comments and expect to be told everything in 5 minutes. We should not be lazy. And as for posting absolutes there is no way I would ever do something like that. When I remarked that the low would NOT reach cyclone status and then 5 hours later we had Tasha I was talking about a completely different low in the northern hemisphere somewhere. Whoops.
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/01/2011 09:09

Very much appreciate the additional posts, particularly those from Nitso (always very helpful and informative) and He Who Once Was ITN and the links provided by TC Poncho. Really clarified a lot of things with me. Its always important to me to understand the actual "mechanics" of the situation and your posts helped immensely.

I guess I understand a lot of the frustration from long time members of the forums who see every rotation in the Coral Sea spruiked as our next potential TC. I'll probably look at upper lows a little differently in future with the additional knowlege I now have on the subject. I certainly have a far greater understanding of their impact in the tropics than I did 48 hours ago.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/01/2011 09:19

Locke, there was nothing wrong in what you posted, you put something out there for a discussion, good on you. wink
Posted by: snowmad

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/01/2011 10:02

What is the go with the area of cloud at about 160E in Southern Coral sea heading SW??. Is this the area that the BOM are talking about in the Qld extended forecast where they have a developing low on the charts , but I thought it was to head SE. Looks good on MTSAT and also water vapor Sat Pic last thing we need is that to hit coast and bring more rain.
Posted by: FNQ Bunyip

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/01/2011 10:17

Thanks for all the recent info guys , was also getting a little tired of "look at that , here it comes" , but sit here not saying anything and trying too learn a little as we go . The extra time taken with recent posts has been very helpfull. Up till my computer crashed last week , I had a word doc of quotes from a few of you guys that have put good simple laymans explanations together for us ,Its good too go back and reread things without trolling through 100s of pages,lol hope too recover drive soon and give the missus her laptop back , lol ..

Thanks smile

cheers
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/01/2011 12:30

Originally Posted By: snowmad
What is the go with the area of cloud at about 160E in Southern Coral sea heading SW??. Is this the area that the BOM are talking about in the Qld extended forecast where they have a developing low on the charts , but I thought it was to head SE. Looks good on MTSAT and also water vapor Sat Pic last thing we need is that to hit coast and bring more rain.


Yeh, it maybe.
Posted by: grumbleguts

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/01/2011 14:22

Originally Posted By: He who once was ITN
Originally Posted By: nitso
Now what does an Upper LOW do?
The UPPER LOW would contract the atmosphere and reduce the amount of air for the waste to escape to. Also, the winds around the UPPER low would be nearly identical to the winds around the surface cyclone. So that would mean that the UPPER LOW would effectively be suffocating the low level cyclone by compressing (stacking) the air above it. Even if the cyclone were drawing in energy at the lower levels, it would have no means of removing the used energy in the upper levels. In effect, the storm system would become “full” and it would choke on itself.

Whilst I can see what you're trying to say hear Nitso - there is no such thing as "used energy". I suspect you mean mass.

For pressures to fall there needs to be an net export of mass from the system - if there is inflow an the low levels there needs to be export of mass (and stronger export) at the upper levels.


it's called entropy.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/01/2011 15:41

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Sunday the 2nd of January 2011 and valid until end of
Wednesday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
There are no significant lows in the region, however the monsoon trough is
forecast to strengthen slightly over the northern Coral Sea in the next 3 days.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Monday: Very Low
Tuesday: Very low
Wednesday:Very Low
Posted by: Taylsy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 02/01/2011 20:54

Mentioned this in the SEQ/NE NSW day to day weather thread but thought I would add it here for relevance...

Thought I might make a quick mention of the weak TC progged by Access G from next Sunday. As I have mentioned before I'm not a big fan yet of this model's tropical capabilities but then again there hasn't been a lot to compare it with. It was quite on the money with the southerly buster versus MT late last year.

Anyway, what starts out as a weak area of low pressure over Vanuatu late this week, ends up being a low-end TC steaming towards Fraser Island at the end of this model's run.

Most of the models this season have really handled cyclogenesis poorly (particularly GFS), so very likely this scenario may disappear from the morning's run.

Needless to say, a Fraser Island cyclone crossing sends a few shivers down my spine given our recent wet weather...
Posted by: ol mate

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 03/01/2011 02:57

These last few pages have been an excellent read. I have learnt more from these pages about cyclone development and related weather formation than a whole 8 weeks during geography at school some years back. I greatly appreciate the time and information you guys put into your posts, and how it is in laymans terms (nice one nitso using the car exhaust), make it much easier for the newbys such as myself to understand. Cheers.
Posted by: drivenunder

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 03/01/2011 05:14

news.com.au are reporting a possible cyclone to hit the rocky area. Have no idea where they get this stuff from.
Posted by: RadioBoi1980

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 03/01/2011 06:44

Originally Posted By: drivenunder
news.com.au are reporting a possible cyclone to hit the rocky area. Have no idea where they get this stuff from.
No they are just pointing out that there could be more devastation IF a cyclone were to hit, this comes after the bureau predicted 6 this season.
Posted by: nocturnal1

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 03/01/2011 15:15

The low that's roughly positioned 158E and 25S is forecast to deepen and possibly give south NZ a bit of a stir between Wednesday evening and Thursday (MSLP 4-day charts). While not a TC, I'm just glad the SE coast of QLD gets a break - don't need another low yet. poke Not much else happening for now.
Posted by: MikeM

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 03/01/2011 17:33

Media - once again - no cycones this week Dimwits channel 2,7,9,10
Posted by: rainman1984

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 03/01/2011 18:19

next week outlook shows some positive lows in the coral sea near the coast
Posted by: He who once was ITN

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 03/01/2011 18:44

Originally Posted By: grumbleguts
it's called entropy


Entropy is a measure of energy that is lost and cannot be used - more scientifically put - "a measure of energy not available for useful work"
Posted by: Loopy Radar

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 03/01/2011 20:50

Originally Posted By: rainman1984
next week outlook shows some positive lows in the coral sea near the coast

And the high near NZ is 1030 on Sunday. Could this see the beginning of a decent blocking system.
Posted by: dylos

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 03/01/2011 22:22

this high if it sits over new zealnd for a decent amount of time should help to steer anything towards the west/south west....depending how strong it ridges
Posted by: Squid

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 03/01/2011 22:27

looks like it may turn into a blocking high once it get se of NZ
Posted by: Gomo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 03/01/2011 22:56

Originally Posted By: He who once was ITN
Originally Posted By: grumbleguts
it's called entropy


Entropy is a measure of energy that is lost and cannot be used - more scientifically put - "a measure of energy not available for useful work"


That is just great. Knowledge is powerful; intuitiion is mandatory.
Posted by: Loopy Radar

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/01/2011 13:38

WZ have gone back a day with the 1030 high and moved it to sth of Tasmania. So perhaps a blocking situation may not occur for a while yet. But of most concern right now for flood affected C/Qu, is another widespread rain event posiibly within a couple of days. That would have enormous consequences.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/01/2011 15:34

bOM's 4day forecast has a low moving out into the CS off the CQ coast and they have it sitting at 1002hp.

I love their new way of displaying deep lows. Just put on a central presure and leave all the isobars out! RE: low on 4 day forecast just west of NZ south island. Central presure 992mb, shown closed isobar 1008hp!?!?!?!?!?!?!

I reckon that could cause some safety issues with boaties going "oh yeah, its only a shallow low, look at the isobars"
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/01/2011 18:13

It sound like we will not see the next lots of Tropical Cyclone development in the Queensland coral sea happen until mid January or early February 2011 if we don't see any Tropical Cyclone development early January.

That what I think any way.

It time that I get things right around here.

We will surely see what happen until them.
Posted by: storm freak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/01/2011 18:39

Uppers have gone to the pits so i think you may be right Matthew..Mid January at the earliest.
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/01/2011 18:45

It starts to look a little better in about 7 days time but I agree, until then the uppers are looking nasty.
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/01/2011 18:51

Good and the later the better.
Posted by: Rainygirl

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/01/2011 19:04

Weekly Tropical Climate Note
Issued on Tuesday 4 January 2011

Strong La Niña event continues in the Pacific
La Niña conditions remain firmly in place across the tropical Pacific, though the majority of long-range models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this event may be near its peak. With a gradual decline likely, it is expected that the current La Niña event will persist through the first quarter of 2011.

The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 2 January was +26. Contributing pressure anomalies were -2.3 hPa at Darwin and +2.8 hPa at Tahiti. The monthly SOI for December was +27 and the 5-month running mean (centred on October) was +21.

All climate indicators of ENSO remain above La Niña thresholds. Despite a slight warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the last fortnight; a large pool of cooler than normal water remains below the surface in the central and eastern Pacific, with temperatures up to 4 °C cooler than normal: comparable to the La Niña event of 1988. In response, the trade winds remain stronger than average across the central and western equatorial Pacific, cloudiness near the date-line remains strongly suppressed, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains in the top 5% of historical values.

La Niña periods are generally associated with warmer than normal night time temperatures, and Tropical Cyclone occurrence for northern Australia is typically higher than normal during the cyclone season (November-April).

See the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up which includes a compilation of ENSO computer model predictions.

MJO lingers in Australian region
The arrival of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in Australian longitudes last month, combined with the persistently strong La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, contributed to the onset of the Australian Summer Monsoon across northern Australia. The timing of this monsoon, arriving about 2 weeks earlier than normal, is consistent with previous La Niña events.

Over the past week or so the monsoon trough (and MJO event) remained active over Australian longitudes, which contributed to heavy rainfall events over northern and eastern Australia. The short lived Tropical Cyclone ‘Tasha’ formed off the east coast of Queensland, and crossed the coast between Cairns and Innisfail as a Category 1 cyclone in the early hours of Christmas morning.

The consensus of computer models surveyed by the Bureau are suggesting the MJO will continue to linger in Australian longitudes. With an active monsoon over Australian longitudes and the prevailing active MJO in the region over the coming week or so, the potential for tropical cyclogenesis during the period will remain at a moderate to high level.http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml

Posted by: windwanderer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/01/2011 19:58

gfs is still predicting the uppers to settle around the 7th which is only 3 days away. access models are looking at a goc low around the 10th so anything is still possible.

ecmwf is still continuing it's path of not interested and anything.
Posted by: mick87

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/01/2011 20:14

Matthew are you from ballina by any chance??
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/01/2011 20:42

This is trav

no hes not mick, hes a townsville local, definatly not the guy you are thinkin bout wink
Posted by: Wezza

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 04/01/2011 21:06

Originally Posted By: mick87
Matthew are you from ballina by any chance??

Lol.

I second what Trav said, he's definitely not the guy.
Posted by: mick87

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 00:57

Oh thank god it's not bsd grin
Sorry for the off topic post.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 07:26

For those that want to have a laugh, or are having a bad day. Check out GFS extended forecast (8 - 16 days). We have TC Hamish all over again - almost a carbon copy of Hamish 2 years ago LOL. Looks like they rehashed charts from a couple of years ago and added a new time-stamp.
Posted by: Dark&Stormy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 07:36

Originally Posted By: nitso
For those that want to have a laugh, or are having a bad day. Check out GFS extended forecast (8 - 16 days). We have TC Hamish all over again - almost a carbon copy of Hamish 2 years ago LOL. Looks like they rehashed charts from a couple of years ago and added a new time-stamp.



Actually I mentioned this another thread about a week ago, that the first I could recall that GFS EX had got it right and followed it through and that was in fact TC Hamish! see how it goes this time round!
Posted by: LQQKN

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 10:14

Originally Posted By: mick87
Oh thank god it's not bsd grin
Sorry for the off topic post.


it is bsd mate smile from ballina living in townsville sorry hes a bit famouse on the net. Back to topic the swells are good now down this part of the world so feels like cyclone season
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 10:54

just checked the model and thought exactly the same thing nitso, total copy from hamish. if that situation was to come off, would scare alot of central and sth qld'ers.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 11:03

forgive me for being a little slow.......MICK 10 this model you and NITSO are talking about is it a possible devaloping cyclone.
BOM said 6 or 7 cyclones but it has been resonably quiet so far this season will it liven up with the la nina hanging around
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 11:06

tradionally we dont get alot of cyclones in coral sea in december. the cyclones dont really start kicking in until january.
but extended gfs is forecasting a low to develop off cooktown on Jan 12th, then intensify into a rather large system while moving SE down the qld coast, about 300-400km off the coast. should be noted that forecasting that far out is very hit and miss though.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 11:14

thanks mick 10 it would be great to see a cat 1 or 2 go over the roof but if its going to be a big one it can stay off shore...... you guys make very interesting reading
Posted by: tsunami

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 11:33

another dumb question as im new to this.... in the top right box that shows who is on line what are spiders as it says 4 spiders on line
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 11:34

One benefit from this seasons wet is that the fishing in 12 months is going to be fan bloody tastic. If we where to get another cyclone in the Townsville region it will cause a mass of damage to the landscape but have the effect of cleaning out all the creeks, rivers, lagoons and swamps. Explosions in the croc populations as well. I have been saying for the passed 7 weeks that a cyclone hitting anywherte between Cooktown and Brisbane will have a force multiplier effect on the landscape in that the ground is so wet that a bee farting in the wrong direction could take out a couple of acres of forrest without any problems at all.
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 11:36

Tsunami -The spiders are programs used by search engines to 'crawl' websites and store information. To see this at work do a Google search for this thread "Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010 -2011" and you will see every posting listed. No Redbacks or Sydney Funnel webs where harmed in this explanation. grin
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 11:38

Oh and there is no such thing as a dumb question. If you need to know then ask. The only dumb question is one that isn't asked. Enjoy and fire away any questions that you have as the forum members are always ready to answer them, that is after all why we are here isn't it people?
Posted by: tsunami

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 11:54

thanks sir bob, do you think the cyclones are going to become very active over the next few months
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 12:53

Not till the end of January or begining of Feb at the earliest I hope. Just a gut feeling at this stage. A Cat 1 would do untold billions of dollars damage to an already wounded Queensland
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 13:06

Although most of the flooding has been south of about Townsville, so as long as any cyclones stay to the north while the flooding dies down, it'll be fine. Although that much water isn't going to clear the ground very quickly at all, they'd want at least a month of sunny days to dry everything out!
Posted by: Myak-04

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 15:29

Didn't know where else to post this...

On the latest MTSAT image ( http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html ), does anybody else see a face in a yellow patch near Brisbane area? XD It weirded me out when I first saw it.
Posted by: Steven

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 15:48

The approaching upper trough is clearly visible on the MTSAT image
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 16:36

and with the bom having a 1000hPa low well off the central coast on their charts this weekend, that upper trough will assist in pushing it further away should it actually develop.
Posted by: Novak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 16:37

Originally Posted By: mick87
Matthew are you from ballina by any chance??

LOL!!! An SSC guy, hey?
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 17:46

note that an possible Tropical Cyclone may developing off the Queensland coral sea hear the coast over the weekend.
**********************************************************************
********************************************************


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Wednesday the 5th of January 2011 and valid until end of
Saturday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
There are no significant lows in the region, however the monsoon trough is
expected to strengthen over the Coral Sea late in the week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday: Very low
Friday: Very low
Saturday: Low

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day:
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

This 4 day map is showing a Tropical low developing on Sunday 1000hpa.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 18:46

ec and gfs models show a weak low forming in the far eastern coral sea, possibly not even in our AOR, and have it moving further away. all the action looks to be over wa side again at this stage.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 18:49

I am just going to be cool and see what happen. grin wink
Posted by: mick87

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 19:28

Yep im on ssc as well as here, im pretty certain wezza is too.
Posted by: Novak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 20:54

Originally Posted By: Mathew
This 4 day map is showing a Tropical low developing on Sunday 1000hpa.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

Exciting!
Posted by: batty

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 21:03

I'm a bit confused..! Quote"I have been saying for the passed 7 weeks that a cyclone hitting anywhere between Cooktown and Brisbane will have a force multiplier effect on the landscape in that the ground is so wet that a bee farting in the wrong direction could take out a couple of acres of forrest without any problems at all." Quote...
A bit worried here as I saw a swarm of bees this afternoon
Posted by: Petros

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 21:14

Originally Posted By: Novak
Originally Posted By: Mathew
This 4 day map is showing a Tropical low developing on Sunday 1000hpa.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

Exciting!


There certainly will be one soon, but for myself cant pick out the system you refer to?.........


[edit] - on reflection please excuse me if you were refering to the WA coast.
Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 21:17

Both long range GFS and EC are certainly alluding to some tropical developments either within the Coral Sea or Tropical South Pacific in 7-8 days time.

Any comments/thoughts on possibilities?
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 21:21

already posted some on the previous page.
Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 21:59

Originally Posted By: Mick10
ec and gfs models show a weak low forming in the far eastern coral sea, possibly not even in our AOR, and have it moving further away. all the action looks to be over wa side again at this stage.

So are you saying it aint gonna happen by your last sentence, or merely that it aint gonna hit the coast?
Posted by: homehillrains

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 22:06

Originally Posted By: Donweather
Originally Posted By: Mick10
ec and gfs models show a weak low forming in the far eastern coral sea, possibly not even in our AOR, and have it moving further away. all the action looks to be over wa side again at this stage.

So are you saying it aint gonna happen by your last sentence, or merely that it aint gonna hit the coast?

I believe that if any system get going it will quickly move to the SE due to the approaching upper trough (though thats with my limited knowledge)
Posted by: tsunami

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 22:23

with the la nina staying strong i feel we are in for a rather nasty 3 months..just when its going to start for us im not sure,,,,,,,feel free to tell me im wrong
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 22:27

i believe it could happen but if it does, it will speed off the to the SE, we would want one to form in the GOC for nqld to get some rain.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 22:28

We will surely see what happen.
Posted by: homehillrains

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 22:31

Originally Posted By: Mick10
i believe it could happen but if it does, it will speed off the to the SE, we would want one to form in the GOC for nqld to get some rain.


yep exactly what i think mick. But whats your reasoning for it speeding of the SE. (wanna compare it to mine above lol)(just to learn)
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 22:41

That may if one develop over in the GoC their been saying that for week now but who know it's a wait and see things what happen with the weather chart during the weekend or next week.

Just got to keep a watch on them all.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 22:55

it will be a very intersting 3 months i think after we get over this stagnant time. we can only hope for some very intersting events from weather watchers point of veiw but no major issues for others
Posted by: DeniseEm

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 22:59

Yes bring all the rain you like over the next 3months just put up a big weathshield over CQ we will sit on the sidelines and watch lol
Posted by: boomer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 23:06

The trough that is not a trough and different to that that low which still refuses to be named. My mail is a low will form off Rocky on Friday. It will then intensify and move north but not a lot. One in five chance of spinning up on Saturday between Rocky and Mackay. Either way not good news flood wise.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 23:07

the upper level trough and low over central qld will push anything in the coral sea towards NZ for a tour of the north island.
Posted by: Gomo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 23:17

Originally Posted By: boomer
The trough that is not a trough and different to that that low which still refuses to be named. My mail is a low will form off Rocky on Friday. It will then intensify and move north but not a lot. One in five chance of spinning up on Saturday between Rocky and Mackay. Either way not good news flood wise.


Wishful thinking is my $10 bet, nothing but sensationalism there mate.
Posted by: homehillrains

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 05/01/2011 23:19

thanks for that mick. thats what i thought too. just checking.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/01/2011 00:11

this is for donweather...enjoy smile looks to be down around 985mb!
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/01/2011 00:57

or maybe you prefer this scenario?
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/01/2011 01:10

doh... ran out of edit time. Here is full size
[img:left] Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/01/2011 07:03

If BoM's model forecast for 4 days from now eventuates we could well be in for some action soon enough. Not the low in the CS but the series of elongated highs which is very similar to when Larry came through. It simply couldn't go sth due to a very similar setup. We shall see soon enough but surely there will be a response to the December SOI soon!
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/01/2011 09:22

the response to the december soi is being felt well to our south. while there is a massive upper low over central and southern qld. nothing is going to happen up here.
Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/01/2011 11:12

Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
or maybe you prefer this scenario?
Nope, don't want that one. I just want swell from these systems, not the wind and rain that goes with them, so keep them well offshore like the EC scenario please!!!

I'm still rather skeptical as ACCESS isn't playing the same game as GFS and EC. Hey Poncho, what GFS model run was that image above taken from? It says 12z, but I note the 12z GFS run (weatherzone extended charts) today still had it being pushed away to the SE, but your image above shows it similar to the 12z EC run?
Posted by: nimbuss

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/01/2011 11:26

gday all!! another season to be jolly hey!! allot of new members i see, thats great!! more imput!
its great to see a face on some names.....nitso and trav dog...seen u guys on the tube the other night...channel 7, good stuff!
got some interesting times ahead! many boxes getting ticked!
MT is up,down,out,in!! lol cant make up its mind!
........melting in kumerunga.......
Posted by: windwanderer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/01/2011 13:12

fiji met are forecasting a moderate chance of cyclone on saturday

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/tc_outlook.pdf

would others agree there is little to no chance of coming this way
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/01/2011 13:51

Originally Posted By: Donweather
Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
or maybe you prefer this scenario?
Nope, don't want that one. I just want swell from these systems, not the wind and rain that goes with them, so keep them well offshore like the EC scenario please!!!

I'm still rather skeptical as ACCESS isn't playing the same game as GFS and EC. Hey Poncho, what GFS model run was that image above taken from? It says 12z, but I note the 12z GFS run (weatherzone extended charts) today still had it being pushed away to the SE, but your image above shows it similar to the 12z EC run?


yeah I want the EC one too. The rain makes the water up here too dirty for nice photo's.

I think this is a different model from the standard GFS. I think it relates to the EX GFS model i.e. 14 day forecast. Not sure if its the same as the one WZ uses. This one is from weather underground.

Both these scenario's are only 7 days away on the model so not that far out really. They both showed development about 2 days prior to the images I attached so, that would put formation at around about 4-5 days from now... Thats when BoM had the low pop out from the CQ coast into the CS on their 4 day forecast yesterday.

I think ACCESS/BoM has cut that peice out of their maps (i.e. large open area of low pressure where something should be) as they dont want to scare people until they get more of an idea whats happening, especially since the CQ coast is underwater atm.

Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/01/2011 14:05

Are you a surfer Poncho?

And I'm pretty sure that COLA model you posted is just a rebadged GFS model.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/01/2011 14:15

Originally Posted By: Donweather
Are you a surfer Poncho?

And I'm pretty sure that COLA model you posted is just a rebadged GFS model.


lol, used to be. my desk job and gut have kicked in now so I have focused more on photography. Probably gona get a booger soon though just so I can get wet.

I used to work with your mate Greg at Connell Wagner (when it was called Connell Wagner) on the Sunny Coast a few years ago. Used to go surfing with him sometimes as he only lived a block away. Is he still on the coast?

Not to sure about the model. The COLA ones that I have seen previously are plotted over the spherical map, they are from wxmaps.com
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/01/2011 15:56

The Tropical low may developing into a Tropical Cyclone over the weekend or as we get into the next week.
***********************************************************
*******************************

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Thursday the 6th of January 2011 and valid until end of
Sunday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
There are no significant lows in the region, however the monsoon trough is
expected to strengthen over the Coral Sea during the next couple of days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Friday: Very low
Saturday: Very low
Sunday: Low

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day:
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

Posted by: Cosmo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/01/2011 18:52

From Fiji met.


Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 05/2324 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F CENTRE [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.0S 176.5E
AT 052100UTC AND REMAINS SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR/VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 27
DEGREES CELCIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, LLCC REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
MORE LOW LEVEL. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER DIFLLUENT
REGION.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVES IT
WESTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 04F CENTRE [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 20.0S 165E AT
052100UTC AND REMAINS SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR/VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 27
DEGREES CELCIUS.

TD04F LIES ALONG A MONSOONAL TROUGH AND TO THE SOUTH OF A DIFFLUENT
REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOW
LEVEL.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/01/2011 19:30

central pacific AOR, or fiji can be discussed in the world forum,
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/895051/5/South_Pacific_Tropical_Cyclone
please.
Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/01/2011 20:13

Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
I used to work with your mate Greg at Connell Wagner (when it was called Connell Wagner) on the Sunny Coast a few years ago. Used to go surfing with him sometimes as he only lived a block away. Is he still on the coast?
LOL, bugger me it's a small world!!! Yeah Greg's back on the coast, but working for a Contractor now.

I'd say you should lose the gut and get back into surfing, particularly this year given the strong La Nina currently in force!!

Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
Not to sure about the model. The COLA ones that I have seen previously are plotted over the spherical map, they are from wxmaps.com
I'll do some research but I'm pretty sure Cola uses the GFS model as it's base.
Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 06/01/2011 20:16

Taken from the COLA home page:

"The underlying data are the direct product of the various operational forecast models run by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Weather Service, NOAA and are supplied without interpretation or correction."

This site also states COLA uses GFS.

http://www.australianweathernews.com/forecast_models.htm

So me thinks GFS base models.
Posted by: care

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/01/2011 09:19

hey guys can someone have a look at the low over brisbane at the moment. sat picks show it spinning ?
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/01/2011 09:52

i cant really see any rotation on the brisbane radar. there is an upper low over southern qld. might be seeing that?? if so, certainly no cyclonic chance.

gfs still persisting with a weak low over the far eastern coral sea. ec aswell for that matter. gfs forms another low closer to the coast that actually skips southwards to the SE corner of the state. thats along way ahead though.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/01/2011 14:59

It's looks like there is a few weak Tropical low developing at the moment off the Queensland what one will developing into a Tropical Cyclone or not??

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
Posted by: KevD

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/01/2011 15:07

Hi Mathew

It is worth reading any number of responses to similar questions above - with the upper low there right now the chance of cyclone development impacting on QLD is minimal smile Likely to change as the upper system dissapates but not before. Does not mean no weather - does mean no tropical cyclones smile
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/01/2011 15:12

Thanks for that infomation that was very hopefully. smile
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/01/2011 15:20

mathew,
here is your weak low,

PART 2 SITUATION
At 070000UTC.
Trough [1] near 14S144E to 21S160E, moving slowly north. General NW/W monsoon
flow north of monsoon trough.
Trough [2] near 21S160E to weak low near 21S153E to 28S166E, near stationary.

as BN suggested, we have talked about this low for a day or two now, there has been many posts on why it probably wont develop or approach the coast.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/01/2011 15:37

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Friday the 7th of January 2011 and valid until end of
Monday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
There are no significant lows in the region, however the monsoon trough is
situated across northern Queensland and should reestablish itself over the Coral
Sea into early next week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday: Very low
Sunday: Very low
Monday: Low

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day:
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/01/2011 15:43

This thread is so full of spam discussing every vaguely spiral shaped cloud in the coral sea that I was late picking up on that cyclone in Christmas due to 'boy who cried wolf/cyclone' type syndrome.

When I was learning about cyclones it was pre-internet so I didn't bother anyone with such spam. My only source of weather was the news reports and looking at the sky. So instead I bothered my mum by asking 'do you think a cyclone might be coming' every time we had a bit of SE wind and a shower.
Posted by: adam17

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/01/2011 15:51

Thats all good for a Brisbaneite.. but.. a cyclone up here will have devastating consequences. The ground is very moisture rich, and as Sir Boab said.. a bees fart could wipe out a forest. Yes, some are over enthusiastic about cyclones, but damn they are exciting little spinning things.
Posted by: bigjohn

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/01/2011 22:24

I over the years have followed these threads, but have kept to myself. In the lead up to Cyclone Ului , it was through these threads that I picked up well in advance that it had us in the firing line.This is when a week before it was apparently supposed to be heading off to New Zealand. You can pick out the more knowledgeable people on line, so you can sort the good from the bad.Luckily ,I did pay attention to the more switched on ones, as the damage to my properties would have been a sight worse.
Posted by: T Pyx

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 07/01/2011 22:59

This upper low over Rockhampton/Gladstone may have nothing to do with cyclones but it has been quite entertaining to watch today ... We had a strong storm cell start out in the south east, move around to the west and then north and now producing plenty of lightning down low in the northeast. 270 degrees of rotation and counting ...
Posted by: Tropicana

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/01/2011 13:33

Originally Posted By: Adamºc
Thats all good for a Brisbaneite.. but.. a cyclone up here will have devastating consequences. The ground is very moisture rich, and as Sir Boab said.. a bees fart could wipe out a forest. Yes, some are over enthusiastic about cyclones, but damn they are exciting little spinning things.


A cyclone down here would be devastating to Brisbane. The ground is saturated. No room for more water. I sure hope we miss one but at same time. All indicators point to it happening.
Posted by: Novak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/01/2011 13:42

"All indicators" point to a cyclone in Brisbane? Which ones? When?
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/01/2011 13:43

OMG.
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/01/2011 13:48

There are none. Some models were playing around with it for a bit, but conditions aren't favourable at the moment, and don't seem like they will be for a while yet.
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/01/2011 13:50

Originally Posted By: Novak
"All indicators" point to a cyclone in Brisbane? Which ones? When?


If you look at history of Big La Nina events of which the one currently is the equivalent of 1974, Brisbane does have a good chance to see something. Everything is set up for a huge disaster in my eyes. Time will tell but I reckon watch out SE QLD.

Quick look up of 1974.

24 January, 1974. CYCLONE WANDA. Over the coast near Maryborough, it then caused significant flooding in Brisbane where 6007 homes were flooded. 13 people drowned and others died from heart attacks. The cost was $200 million (at 1974 value).
6 February, 1974. CYCLONE PAM. Intense cyclone passed 500km to the east of Brisbane. Severe flooding and evacuation at Palm Beach.
13 March, 1974. CYCLONE ZOE. Crossed the coast at Coolangatta then went back to sea. Floods in Brisbane with evacuations at Murwillumbah and Lismore, NSW.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/01/2011 14:57

GFS are still interested in something.

Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/01/2011 15:18

I think that GFS is right at the moment.

I may well have some bit of say about it any way.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/01/2011 15:37

matthew thats in like 2 weeks..
Posted by: ol mate

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/01/2011 15:57

Wow thats quite a large system, should it develop. Like you say, its a long way out. Just out of curiosity, how accurate are the models that produced that image?
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/01/2011 16:00

I know that is in weeks time.

Let see what happen.
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/01/2011 16:28

Originally Posted By: Inghamite
Wow thats quite a large system, should it develop. Like you say, its a long way out. Just out of curiosity, how accurate are the models that produced that image?


GFS so far this season has thrown in alot of cyclones into their models this season of which only 1 has formed (Tasha) and over here in WA 2 have been LOWS. So in regards to their accuracy its not all that flash especially when its 8-14 days away. They are alot better closer to the date which you would expect. Still you cant discount it out of the equation. Something to watch as the date gets closer and we will then see if they were right.
Posted by: KroneckerDelta

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/01/2011 16:40

I'll be heading off for Byron for a few days camping at the time of that forecast and I've never experienced a cyclone - knowing my luck that system that GFS is progging will head straight for SEQ. smile

Quoting the 28-day rain forecast, "Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 4 January to 8 January, 10 January to 14 January, and 21 January to 25 January".
Posted by: floody

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/01/2011 17:23

It is almost a dead certainty NOT to happen but given it was Australia Day when Brisbane was flooded by Wanda, the date of the 24th of Jan on the chart posted above is an interesting coincidence especially as there would be a few days for the system to track SW......
Posted by: floody

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/01/2011 17:23

It is almost a dead certainty NOT to happen but given it was Australia Day when Brisbane was flooded by Wanda, the date of the 24th of Jan on the chart posted above is an interesting coincidence especially as there would be a few days for the system to track SW......
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/01/2011 17:24

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Saturday the 8th of January 2011 and valid until end of
Tuesday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
There are no significant lows in the region. The monsoon trough is developing
across north Queensland and northern Coral Sea. However, there aren't any
indications of a low developing along the trough in the next few days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday: Very low
Monday: Very low
Tuesday: Very low

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day:
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.
Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 08/01/2011 17:54

ACCESS and EC aligning fairly well now with something in the Coral Sea mid-late next week.

GFS...well it's still being good old GFS!!!
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 00:35

gfs still has a low in the eastern CS too. all 3 models keep the system weak and elongated, which looking to me seems like it might not become a tropical cyclone. and all 3 move the system south and southeast further away.
Posted by: fnq1

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 01:13

DOH!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: HilltopHousewife

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 01:31

Hey there, I'm pretty new to this too so please move me off to another forum if I've come to the wrong place but I have a question you could help me with. I've lived in Mackay for 5 years and Ului was the first cyclone my husband, children and I had ever experienced- it was terrifying for all of us! Since then I've been trying to learn what I can to have as much warning as possible.
After going through the threads in the 'links' forum I came across the Vanuatu Met site and often keep an eye on that- is that close enough to get a heads up from the east but far enough to not worry should anything stir in that region or am I carrying out a pointless exercise?

Also, if it is a good place to watch then how often do Lows's from that way form into cyclones that head our way?

I'm sorry if annoy anyone by posting this here :S
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 01:55

Lows that form around Vanuatu can sometimes head towards Australia. infact I believe that is where Ului originated. You can get ideas if a low is expected to form, however not all of them are dragged towards the coast. For example, the low that is forecast to develop sometime next week is forecast to move in a Southerly direction, down towards New Zealand where it'll be ripped to shreds and suffocate on cool waters.

The best way to get a lot of warning time is to watch the satellite images, and also keep an eye out on BoM's cyclone outlooks. If you see a cyclone heading towards the coast, it's best to assume it's going to hit your area and prepare for it, instead of waiting till the last minute to see where it goes, and having it destroy your property, or at worst, take lives. Even if it hits in a completely different area, you know you would have been better off if it did hit.

Of course, not every spinning cloud is going to turn into a cyclone, and not every cyclone that forms is going to head towards the coast, but if it's obvious it is, it's best to prepare, no matter where on the coast it's headed. Everyone knows the weather is unpredictable. You can make educated guesses, but it's impossible to tell exactly where a cyclone will hit until at least 12 hours before it does, in which time it's already too late.

Of course, just keeping an eye on the forums can give you a nice early warning. There are plenty of knowledgeable people here who will point out the conditions, and if the cyclone is likely to hit the coast and what it'll do.

Like you have already been doing, watch a few of the models and familiarize yourself with what is happening on the charts. Knowing how to read synoptic charts, and various features on satellite images and radar are a great help smile
Posted by: marakai

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 02:47

Originally Posted By: DayDreamer
Hey there, I'm pretty new to this too so please move me off to another forum if I've come to the wrong place but I have a question you could help me with. I've lived in Mackay for 5 years and Ului was the first cyclone my husband, children and I had ever experienced- it was terrifying for all of us! Since then I've been trying to learn what I can to have as much warning as possible.
After going through the threads in the 'links' forum I came across the Vanuatu Met site and often keep an eye on that- is that close enough to get a heads up from the east but far enough to not worry should anything stir in that region or am I carrying out a pointless exercise?

Also, if it is a good place to watch then how often do Lows's from that way form into cyclones that head our way?

I'm sorry if annoy anyone by posting this here :S


In My Opinion this is the best place to keep informed, If anything out there so much as look,s like it is going to even start to spin up you will know about it, most times at least week before it even makes the MSM.

I was in Darwin when Monica came that way and knew about the potential track before she crossed the gulf and way before anything was even mentioned to the public there due to the Knowledge right here.

It was quite relaxing to cruise around the shopping center having bought my last minute stuff a week before the panic shopping set in, there was literally NOTHING left on the shelves that would of been useful.

Youve found the right spot.
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 02:48

Same thing sort of applies right now. If a cyclone hits further down South, food supplies plummet! I was in Woolies Redlynch Yesterday and the shelves are drying out already due to the flooding down south!
Posted by: marakai

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 02:55

Yeah you sure wouldnt want a Cyclone hitting down that way at the moment , we would be stuffed for months not to mention the poor Buggers down there.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 03:30

I like looking at the track maps that bom produce when theres a low or cyclone. that is going to give you a good idea where it is expected to head with an +/- error for every forecast position.

I wish they would produce these more often though! They didnt produce one for Tasha until about 1am the same morning it crossed the coast!! Not nice to wake up to your trampoline on the neighbors roof in the morning!
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 08:14

Welcome DayDreamer
The Forums is a perfect place to keep informed about TCs
I am Mackay born and bred so I found Ului exciting but I am also a weather nut.

There has been a change in the AccessG Model. The Low /Cyclone which drifts into our area from the Vanuatu area maintains a westerly and almost makes it to the coast of Aus. GFS and EC still have the system move SE. AccessG has it being steered by a mid level high to it's south.

From Vanuatu Met Office

A tropical low (1000hPa) near 17.5S, 170.9E at 081800UTC. Position poor. The system is slow moving, expected to move west southwest later. Its potential to develop into a tropical cyclone and move towards Vanuatu within the next two to three days is low to moderate.
Posted by: Steamy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 08:35

Water Vapor Sat Pic Water Vapor

Excellent Example of Upper Low (Off Coast of Qld) and Developing Tropical Low (17S 170E). Nitso's example of car exhaust. Watch the clouds near the Developing Tropical Low, they look like they are escaping from a central point while there is limited convection around the upper low because all the clouds are being siphoned into a central point.
Posted by: windwanderer

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 09:25

i'm a little confused with the protocols. we were talking about the low out near fiji earlier in this thread and were told to take it to the world section by a mod. fair call i guess even though it bounds the coral sea.

now seems the mod who asked us to move is talking about the low out near fiji? is this the right place to dicuss the fiji low or not?
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 11:10

Its going to move south east/south no matter what i think. Access gets no browny points from me with cyclonic systems. If only the uppers were playing ball.
Posted by: Steven

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 11:26

TD03F is located inside the Fiji AOR and should be discussed in the appropriate thread
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/895051/6/South_Pacific_Tropical_Cyclone

I will leave it to the moderators to enforce this
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 11:29

If its going to move past 160E then i think its okay to talk about it, however i dont even know if it will make it 10 degrees west.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 11:41

I am with you there mate.
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 11:46

Originally Posted By: Travvv doggy dog
Its going to move south east/south no matter what i think. Access gets no browny points from me with cyclonic systems. If only the uppers were playing ball.


I'm not sure. Looking at the steering influences from about Tuesday onwards I would have thought a SW to SSW track more likely.
Posted by: beachcomber

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 11:51

Its been a quiet January so far. Whats the chancers of getting our wet season/ cyclone season kicked off?.
Posted by: HilltopHousewife

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 11:53

Thanks for the advice everyone, keeping an eye on this forum has been really helpful and it's good coming across people who are knowledgable and so willing to educate newbies like me.
I was a property manager in the 2008 floods and we also sustained (albeit minor) property damage from Ului so I've seen the damage weather can cause especially when precautions aren't taken.
I find the science and organised chaos of severe weather interesting and exciting but also something to be feared and respected, because weather can never be 100% predictable it teases you into wanting to know more and more!!!


*I'm sorry I got this forum off topic with my Vanuatu Met question, it's just that site is the easiest to read eek
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 12:04

Originally Posted By: Locke
Originally Posted By: Travvv doggy dog
Its going to move south east/south no matter what i think. Access gets no browny points from me with cyclonic systems. If only the uppers were playing ball.


I'm not sure. Looking at the steering influences from about Tuesday onwards I would have thought a SW to SSW track more likely.


I thought EC would have picked up on that though.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 12:06

GFS now has it moving towards the coast too.....
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 12:18

Whoops my bad, its access smile
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 12:22

just beat me to it trav.
access has done a complete turn around and brings the low WSW. keeps it weak, more a wide area of low pressure than a defined closed system.
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 12:41

BOM don't appear too interested in it on their 4 days charts.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 12:45

Thats cus EC isnt interested locke, the bom really only run of ECMF as you probably know. I guess we have to wait until 5pm for EC's update to see if it changes....i doubt it will but still its something !!!

Mick if access came off im sure it would be a good system. As long as the uppers play ball smile
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 13:16

my concern trav, which i also posted in the world forum, is that the system is already along way south. this low would have to travel due west for 1500km to have an affect on our weather otherwise it will be too far south.
Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 13:39

Latest GFS run now on board with EC with some tasty developments progged later this coming week. And as far as I'm concerned, as long as this system is forecast to be west of Vanuatu, then it should still be discussed in this thread as that's the extent of the Coral Sea.

And if either of those two charts come to fruition, SE Qld and Nth NSW can expect some solid E'ly groundswell from this puppy!!!
Posted by: JoshweatherNOW

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 13:46

So if this system does become a cyclone in Australian waters it will be number 3...correct?(sorry i have been away)
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 13:54

EC have this system turning into a full blown cyclone by the end of the week, however they seem persistent it'll be sucked away to NZ.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 14:31

What the chance of that Tropical low doing a U turn and make a in coming towards the Queensland later in the week or next week is some people want to know?

hopefully some one would be nice to add a little more infomation would be great thanks.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 14:44

mathew read the above posts, how more info do you want?
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 14:55

Thanks for the tips Mick10.

hopefully this help another people in here.

It's just when another people been asking the some things I think here the same things in here the the last few post they need to be cool Mick10 that is all I can say at the moment.

What do you think?
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 15:03

low shear environment expected in the region, should allow it to become a TC. 2 chains of thoughts re: movement

(1) South/SSE - weakness in ridge/weak trough developing over western Coral Sea
(2) W - due to mid level ridging

Favoured direction right now is to the west south west due to building mid level ridge, Upper LOW and associated surface trough over western Coral Sea pushing further west and likely to weaken by mid week over western Queensland.

It's in a very interesting position just south of it are the strong 300hpa Westerlies ready to send it east of New Zealand, north of it are weaker east south easterlies ready to send it on a collision course with Central Qld. Whatever happens, strong winds over Southern QLD will be a given due to pressure gradient squeezing between the tropical cyclone and the building Tasman HIGH.

A very complex pattern is emerging throughout Queensland. Enter the MT mid week (which seems to have become the forgotten silent monster in this whole current situation and its inactivity is the only thing keeping Queensland from experiencing the weather equivalent to armageddon) with a westward moving surface trough and upper LOW and we could see renewed flooding again over southern Qld. Add a TC to it and we'll see devastation on a scale we can't imagine yet.

Let's hope for everyone's sake this one swings away to the SE.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 15:06

Thanks for that infomation there mate that was very helpfully

We got to wait and see is all I can say at the moment.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 16:04

Originally Posted By: nitso
low shear environment expected in the region, should allow it to become a TC. 2 chains of thoughts re: movement

(1) South/SSE - weakness in ridge/weak trough developing over western Coral Sea
(2) W - due to mid level ridging

Favoured direction right now is to the west south west due to building mid level ridge, Upper LOW and associated surface trough over western Coral Sea pushing further west and likely to weaken by mid week over western Queensland.

It's in a very interesting position just south of it are the strong 300hpa Westerlies ready to send it east of New Zealand, north of it are weaker east south easterlies ready to send it on a collision course with Central Qld. Whatever happens, strong winds over Southern QLD will be a given due to pressure gradient squeezing between the tropical cyclone and the building Tasman HIGH.

A very complex pattern is emerging throughout Queensland. Enter the MT mid week (which seems to have become the forgotten silent monster in this whole current situation and its inactivity is the only thing keeping Queensland from experiencing the weather equivalent to armageddon) with a westward moving surface trough and upper LOW and we could see renewed flooding again over southern Qld. Add a TC to it and we'll see devastation on a scale we can't imagine yet.

Let's hope for everyone's sake this one swings away to the SE.



Thanks for the update Nitso, I was interested to see how things were going to pan out out with this current upper low, cheers
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 16:42

BoM contradiction!!!

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Sunday the 9th of January 2011 and valid until end of
Wednesday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
There are no significant lows in the region. The monsoon trough is developing
across north Queensland and northern Coral Sea. However, there aren't any
indications of a low developing along the trough in the Coral Sea during the
next few days.

poke grin I have never seen so many lows along the monsoon trough before! According to their own MSLP map, theres is currently one atm in the CS and one over the western SouthPacfic which has the potential to move west!

Are these guys on the sauce again or what!!


Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 16:52

Originally Posted By: nitso
Let's hope for everyone's sake this one swings away to the SE.
Thanks Nitso. Nice to get some educated opinions on here. I'm hoping she also swings SEwards but not too quickly otherwise the swell from her doesn't have time to develop. frown
Posted by: tsunami

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 17:08

DONWEATHER ...mate that map makes me think BOM have got absolutely no idea what is hapening, NITSO needs to go give them some advice
Posted by: adsy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 17:36

bom are showing something saturday

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
Posted by: Wet Wet Wet

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 17:42

This is the latest extended forecast from GFS. Think nothing of it though, Extended GFS is about as useful as an ashtray on a motorbike.


Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 17:48

Well, it's better than nothing WWW! At least almost all the models are hinting at something, something has to happen. I would actually prefer that GFS scenario, with it heading WNW towards the end. Not so much flooding up here, would much rather it head up here and dump than down South and flood them out again!

Although I can imagine the local farmers are doing well from the flooding down South, sales must be booming! smile
Posted by: tsunami

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 17:48

well a system like that in that area could be a worry, BOM have no idea so we will see what un folds, makes for a very interesting senario
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 17:54

thats looking along way ahead at the moment. over a week away. thats a lifetime in regards to tropical weather systems.
already seeing rain areas and storms from the southward moving MT on the forecasts for most northern areas mid week, once this kicks in, i think a low forming any where on the trough is a possibility. and with the chances of a cyclone forming over the in west very low now, that gives the monsoon some extra kick on our side of country.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 17:58

Originally Posted By: Wet Wet Wet
This is the latest extended forecast from GFS. Think nothing of it though, Extended GFS is about as useful as an ashtray on a motorbike.






Actually I think the ashtray has proven more reliable. But you never know. We are heading into the middle of summer afterall. I recall one year in the mid '90s that there was nothing until mid Feb then a string of them or deep lows. I think it was in the lead up to TC Justin but could be wrong. Certainly around that time though.
Posted by: Occo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 19:27

I thought the most useless thing on a motorbike would be air conditioning!!
Posted by: Loopy Radar

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 19:38

The strengthening sth high is expected to weaken by the end of the week. We need a blocking high to stick around a couple of weeks.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 20:27

Originally Posted By: Mathew
Thanks for the tips Mick10.

hopefully this help another people in here.

It's just when another people been asking the some things I think here the same things in here the the last few post they need to be cool Mick10 that is all I can say at the moment.

What do you think?


I love ur enthusiasm Mathew.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 20:30

Cool Thanks.

It was only a idea.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 22:40

GFS forecast for 25 January 2011. Intense Low, heading slowly West:

Posted by: tsunami

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 22:46

wow that has a Townville Track
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 22:53

Now now lets not get too excited. Models predicting out that far are very, very, very rarely ever right, unless it is predicting a High and fair weather.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 22:56

Very good Sir Boab, yes you are right,,,,,rain always goes around where i am, i should never by a rain coat. My wife says im a weather freak..so if a big storm does come and i dont inform her about 3000 times welll you can only imagine what she would say
Posted by: Popeye

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 23:03

Originally Posted By: Sir BoabTree
Now now lets not get too excited. Models predicting out that far are very, very, very rarely ever right, unless it is predicting a High and fair weather.


Ahh sir Boab I remember you saying the same words when they predicted a cyclone to hit Nth Qld on xmas day. LOL. That was EC 10 days out though and not GFS.

There will definately be one now on the 25th Sir Boab has put his jinx on it. wink
Posted by: Stormy Sheree

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 23:19

WOW, that GFS forecast looks like it's heading straight for Townsville.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 09/01/2011 23:24

its all a bit much... ill have to go to bed...... and sleep that is..out in the boat tommorrow
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/01/2011 02:02

gfs has been forecasting lows/cyclones on everyrun in every imaginable position since mid decemeber. best not to get too excited until one actually forms. but of course also good to be vigilant. this monsoonal burst looks like it might be kick off we have been waiting for.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/01/2011 07:33

GFS has now dropped the Low altogether.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/01/2011 07:34

GFS is a stupid model, just like CMC. They all predict end of the world situations. EC has it now moving SSW.
Posted by: Locke

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/01/2011 08:44

From BOM

"GALE WARNING 001 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 09/1925 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F WAS LOCATED NEAR 18S 169E AT 091500UTC. MOVING SOUTHWEST

AT 10 KNOTS.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM

THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

AREA OF GALES SLOW MOVING.

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.

RE-ISSUED BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE."


I know this is not in our area but it will be if it continues its current direction of movement.
Posted by: Blueycairns

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/01/2011 09:11

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/imagemain.php?&basin=austeast&prod=wvbbm&sat=gms

An interesting image. That low is a looong way away.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/01/2011 11:52

BoM have it inching toward the coast for about 3-4 days being about a CAT 1-2 system and maybe even a CAT 3 for a little while(980hp on EC).

Donweather, looking the goods mate. Even the pressure along the coast is set to drop. Clean mornings with blue skys!!!
Im taking next week off me thinks.

Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/01/2011 12:35

Originally Posted By: Blueycairns
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...bbm&sat=gms

An interesting image. That low is a looong way away.

exactly this system is such along way out its not funny. all models intensify this low and move it west to wsw, before heading south or back southeast eventually. be lucky if it even makes it into australian waters.
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/01/2011 12:40

Originally Posted By: Popeye
Originally Posted By: Sir BoabTree
Now now lets not get too excited. Models predicting out that far are very, very, very rarely ever right, unless it is predicting a High and fair weather.


Ahh sir Boab I remember you saying the same words when they predicted a cyclone to hit Nth Qld on xmas day. LOL. That was EC 10 days out though and not GFS.

There will definately be one now on the 25th Sir Boab has put his jinx on it. wink


See my reverse karma is working again. grin
Posted by: SBT

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/01/2011 12:42

No we don't need it. Send it south east towards NZ. They need rain badly from what i hear.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/01/2011 13:41

Originally Posted By: Travvv doggy dog
GFS is a stupid model, just like CMC. They all predict end of the world situations. EC has it now moving SSW.


GFS is only good for short term forecasting - 0-7days, beyond that use EC.

You will find that GFS handles cyclones very well once they develop.
Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/01/2011 14:15

Ha ha ha had to laugh at Trav's outburst about the CMC. If that model had been correct even 5 times out of 10 so far this season we would have had the entire east coast north of Townsville wiped off the map - The Gulf of Carpentaria would be one giant tree flattened swamp bed, Broome would no longer exists and we'd be down most of the Fijian islands, not to mention the mets on poor old Willis Island whose met station would have been destroyed about 7 or 8 times by now.

That model makes it look like it was built after some mad scientist watched "The day After Tomorrow" a few too many times.

I agree GFS handles short term situations quite well - EC is an amazing model.

Short term movement to the wsw due to developing ridge and upper low moving west back into Queensland and washing out. Whether it gets to 160 or not, it should indirectly affect swells and seas over southern QLD and NSW.
Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/01/2011 14:30

Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
Donweather, looking the goods mate. Even the pressure along the coast is set to drop. Clean mornings with blue skys!!!
Im taking next week off me thinks.

Yep, looks like 6-8ft E'ly groundswell coming Sunday/Monday assuming GFS comes to fruition, which EC is in broad agreement with.

Not a good week to be getting back into surfing though TC Poncho!!!

Right, now if someone can guarantee me uncrowded Noosa at this time of year then I'll be a happy camper.
Posted by: reezy

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/01/2011 14:51

where can i see the GFS model ?
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/01/2011 15:24

Originally Posted By: Donweather
Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
Donweather, looking the goods mate. Even the pressure along the coast is set to drop. Clean mornings with blue skys!!!
Im taking next week off me thinks.

Yep, looks like 6-8ft E'ly groundswell coming Sunday/Monday assuming GFS comes to fruition, which EC is in broad agreement with.

Not a good week to be getting back into surfing though TC Poncho!!!

Right, now if someone can guarantee me uncrowded Noosa at this time of year then I'll be a happy camper.


poke whys that?? I was just gonna paddle out to old woman, nothing too heavy to get started on!

Nah, will just be taking photo's... lots of photo's! Gonna rent a 100-400 lens. Im liking Wurtulla, Coolum, Pitta St Sunshine, Granites and Mooloolaba for some slamage!

Don't know about Noosa being uncrowded. I heard that they wont let anyone surf at Nationals unless you have have your dog with you too. I think you have a better chance of winning lotto with that one.

You could however try another point a little further north. Would prob have to camp there though. Oh and the council are charging for temp licences to drive on the beach now!

I REALLY hope the ACCESS model atm comes to fruition...just a little deeper would be nice.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/01/2011 15:37

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:33pm EST on Monday the 10th of January 2011 and valid until end of
Thursday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
The monsoon trough is developing across north Queensland and the northern Coral
Sea. Lows could potentially develop along the monsoon trough, however none are
expected to be significant over the next few days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday: Very low
Wednesday:Very low
Thursday: Low
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/01/2011 17:28

ummmmm is this a typo????

Posted by: nitso

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/01/2011 17:35

Yes mate definitely a typo - supposed to say 996 and 998 not 980 and 990 respectively.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/01/2011 17:39

Originally Posted By: nitso
Yes mate definitely a typo - supposed to say 996 and 998 not 980 and 990 respectively.



lol, I just thought being Fiji hand drawn map, below a 1000hp they might leave the extra isobars out as they could get very dizzy drawing them... as BoM had been doing on their 4 day maps.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/01/2011 18:09

**a specific thread has been created for the developing low in Fijian waters. Please post any further discussion to that thread HERE**
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/01/2011 19:39

After just watching the news about the Brisbane flooding, that low/cyclone can cross up here any time! They do NOT need any more flooding shocked
Posted by: Donweather

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 10/01/2011 20:06

Originally Posted By: TC Poncho
Nah, will just be taking photo's... lots of photo's! Gonna rent a 100-400 lens. Im liking Wurtulla, Coolum, Pitta St Sunshine, Granites and Mooloolaba for some slamage!

I look forward to the pics then, although I don't think there's too many other places than Noosa and Mooloolaba that's really gonna handle this swell on Sunday mate (assuming GFS comes off). Open beaches will be BIG and SOLID in the 6-8ft class, potentially bigger 8ft clean up sets.

And as for your recommendation of a N'ly point, I was trying to rally the troops up to go there but couldn't find anyone with the required vehicle who was keen!!! frown
Posted by: !SCHUMMY!

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 00:47

Originally Posted By: Things
After just watching the news about the Brisbane flooding, that low/cyclone can cross up here any time! They do NOT need any more flooding shocked


no we definitely dont need any more rain for the next month or two but for once i am actually getting a bit worried about this, look how south the lows is on the charts and most likely moving in a general W'ly direction....this spells disaster, especially for central qld down to the border.

but if it does eventuate we just have to batten down the hatches for this one frown
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 09:06

GFS has picked up on the Low/TC again, this time moving in from the GOC and crossing into the Coral Sea from the NTC.

GFS forecast for 25 January 2011:



It should be noted that GFS is the only model picking up on this scenario, having said that it's the only model that I can see that stretches as far out as 25/1.
Posted by: camtang

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 09:12

The last thing SEQ needs is a cyclone dumping even more rain. Thankfully this season has been relatively quiet.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 13:32

This doesnt look good people. GFS may heve been on to something

Posted by: HilltopHousewife

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 13:48

Hi TC, can you explain what that map means (sorry if thats a dumb question, I'm still learning)?
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 14:08

Originally Posted By: DayDreamer
Hi TC, can you explain what that map means (sorry if thats a dumb question, I'm still learning)?


Lol, thats OK.
Basically it shows that the EC model is forecasting either another TC to form, this time in the CS, or, just a rain bearing Low, from the 20th of January. Either way, that would be bad news for QLD if it heads towards the coast.

We have to keep in mind that this is 240 Hours out though and these models can change their tune pretty quick. The problem that I see is that the EC model is now showing the same scenario as the GFS model, with the EC model being known as a more reliable source for tropical forecasting.
Posted by: HilltopHousewife

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 14:35

Sunny Queensland- Beautiful one day, perfect the next! These are heartbreaking times frown
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 15:32

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Tuesday the 11th of January 2011 and valid until end of
Friday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
The monsoon trough is situated over north Queensland and is extending across the
northern Coral Sea. The monsoon trough is expected to strengthen over the next
few days and a low may develop over the northern Coral Sea by Friday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday:Very low
Thursday: Low
Friday: Low
Posted by: FNQ

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 16:42

The developing low near Vanuatu has its own thread in the world forum
Posted by: Smallfry

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 19:45

Hi TC.

Where do I find the EC forcast maps? I have looked but didn't see them on BOM.
Thanks in advance, this is a wonderful forum full of terrific advice.
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 20:11

This is the one mostly used: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...s!2010111912!!/
Posted by: Smallfry

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 20:17

Thanks
Posted by: max power

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 21:47

ok going back about 3 weeks ago just before christmas...i have been going through this forum and cannot find what Nitso exactly said...but I believe it was along the lines of "a flood of biblical proportions" in reference to the central QLD and SE QLD floods...before any of the floods started to happen..seriously wtf Nitso...he had it spot on before any of this began.
Posted by: drivenunder

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 22:07

I remember that quote Maxpower, but after a google search I could not find it on the forums. But he nailed it ages ago before we had any of the flooding in Qld!

Wait a sec, I just found it - it is back on PAGE 52 of this forum RE: Coral Sea Cyclone season - posted on 31/12/2010. Hope that helps...
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 22:11

i dont think it was nitso but another member was quoting one of the weather predictors for this summer.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 22:14

I do recall it was Nitso.
Posted by: max power

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 22:16

No it was diffinately Nitso...it was in response to the developing low before christmas..and along with the monsoon trough would cause flooding that QLD had never seen before...it was just after the first meeting of the state government meeting with emergency services, and hence he explained the reason for the meeting...i have looked for an hour but cannot find what he said....weird
Posted by: Ms Milo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 22:20

the quote is on page 52 like Driveunder said. However it's not like Nitso was the only one that could envision this type of scenario happening... plenty of other WZ members had the heads up too.
Posted by: RAINALI

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 22:26

Originally Posted By: nitso
Thank you Tempest, we keep saying it every time lately, but thanks for the easy to understand definition.

Anyway, France Met Office predicts chances for a TC for the Fiji area increase in 2-3 weeks time to almost a 50% probability, so if you're really interested in a TC hitting New Cal or Fiji please have a look in 2-3 weeks time. Perhaps though discussions for rotations around 170 East are better suited to the world thread than the Coral Sea thread, unless of course they are displaying obvious long term potential movement to the west.

On a more local note, Met France does predict an elevated chance of a TC affecting the area 140 - 160E and 15 - 30S (Yes I know it's basically the whole of the Coral Sea and some of the Tasman as well LOL) in week 2 after the 6th of January. They are predicting about a 30% chance of a TC occurring in that time frame. Unfortunately, looking at the broadscale longer term upper pattern, that probably happens about the same time as a long wave trough system which just wants to sit over eastern Qld and Western Coral Sea - so off to the SE it'll go frown

Still early days yet and hopefully the upper forecast may change between now and the end of next week.

Obviously the unknown in the scenario, is the developing MT which should begin to kick off in the next couple of days. A moderate HIGH of 1048 Hpa and a mid lat LOW in the Northern hemisphere are combining to strengthen the NE trade flow in the Northern Hemisphere, that pulse of strong trade winds should assist in redeveloping the terribly weak trough over the next few days. The LOW weakens and moves away, but luckily the HIGHS remain over 1040 odd, so the monsoon trough may actually stick around this time. Let's just hope for the sake of Central Queensland, that the next upper trough that also sticks around isn't going to be too strong. Another combination of these systems so soon would result in a flood of biblical proportions.GFS still harbours this morbid fascination to attack the Gulf of Carpentaria with a strong cyclone (and continually nail WA with cyclones - I think this developing LOW is like the fourth cyclone of the season to be progged to develop there). It's been forecasting it for about three weeks. I guess if you forecast a cyclone for the 16 or so weeks of a cyclone season, you gotta get one right. On a serious note could the model be struggling with the high SST's over the Indian Ocean and Gulf, and could that over-emphasis of SST's in cyclogenesis be causing the model to over-emphasise cyclogenesis? I notice that it's less inclined to do the same over the Coral Sea, I do believe when i checked a few days ago, most Coral Sea temps are below those of NW WA and GOC


Found the post
Posted by: max power

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 22:26

Really? Did u envision it?
Posted by: Things

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 22:27

The main comparison was to 1974, where a VERY similar weather event caused similar chaos in that part of QLD.
Posted by: max power

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 22:36

yeah look sorry ms milo...but i thought Nisto comments were worth a mention... yeah everyone goes its the LA Nina effect and so on...but it was something that just stuck in my head with what he said before any of it began....Nitso - Burnie's replacement haha
Posted by: Stormy Sheree

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 22:41

well done Nitso wink Biblical proportions wasn't an understatement either sadly:(
Posted by: LightningBoltz

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 22:44

It was in the low in cs forum just before Christmas and I asked what will happen when the Cyclone passed the coast, What was going to happen to the rain depression. And Nitsos reply was that we would have historical flooding and so on... But i think he would never of expected anything like what happened in toowoomba yesterday or what is up coming for Brisbane in the next few days.
Posted by: Ms Milo

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 22:56

Originally Posted By: max power
Really? Did u envision it?
yep
Posted by: max power

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 23:01

I am not glorifying floods by any means..I have seen footage today where people shown have died which is horrifying, ie the SUV isolated with the mother father and kid. All I am saying is that by listening to people like Nitso on this forum, gives somewhat more of an idea of the devastation that could "possibly" take place. I don't mean rushing out and acting like an idiot, but understanding what the effects are of such weather. Did BOM give any idea of what took place? besides saying a severe weather warning has been posted for the last 2 weeks...f*&Ken info on what may or may not happen makes all the difference...unfortunately there are too many drama queens that go of the rails with such info and go nuts. sorry mick10 i know its off the topic but what Nisto mentioned was in this forum
Posted by: reefgirl40

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 23:13

I remember the quote and I also remember him following up in a more sombre tone saying that he was expecting loss of life and that we should all think about that whilst getting excited about the rains that were coming. I remember people on the forum thinking it was out of character for him to be so sombre. It was one of the catalysts for me to finally join the chat. I was quoting him around the christmas table not long after and was advising guests to stock up for the long wet. They all thought I was mad and I felt abit like Noah. People do get a bit hysterical on these forums from time to time, this is true but it is listening to people like "nitso" and his like that makes me feel like for the first time I have felt that I have had some real information about any cyclone/weather event. Sorry mod if too off topic but felt it important!
Posted by: Moonstruck

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 23:16

"Ditto" Reefgirl40
Posted by: Maisie

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 23:23

I just hope that there is no sign of a Cyclone for a couple of weeks as it would be a tragedy for anything like that to happen and go SE at the moment.
On a slightly happier note and maybe a bit off topic but the Mother and child got rescued from the SUV but father unfortunately still unaccounted for.
Posted by: TC Poncho

Re: Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Season 2010-2011 - 11/01/2011 23:26

Sorry, I thought you were referring to this post from mad mick.
I do now remember that from nitso now.

"For the last two years was given a copy of his forcasts from a person in Ingham, year before last spot on to the week with his thunderstorms and cyclones forcasts but last year was not as close but as he said any volcanic activity in the sea east of us will change the weather as it did last year.I for one would like to know how you can predict this far in advance with storms and cyclones to the week.
Looks like mario right on the money this year

MARIO TORRISI MOTHER NATURE LONG RANGE FORECASTER

NOVEMBER
This month will see a lot of change. Some hot days, the atmosphere cool - Jet Stream. Cirrus cloud and dense moisture creates some storms with an indication of some good weather from the 1st to 10th . Storms from the 10th to 20th. For the rest of the month some fine days with a possible tropical disturbance in the Coral Sea.

DECEMBER
This month will see some tropical lows/cyclones from the Gulf to the Coral Sea pressure gradient is low in density. The weather will be hotter than normal with some heavy rain inland and flooding on the coast.This month could see two cyclones with the first being in the beginning of the month. The second will be around 20th - 31st which will be very dangerous for the east coast. Victoria and New South Wales will have very hot weather as the mercury could reach 45 degrees.