QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018

Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/10/2017 09:30

Hot off the press.....

Outlook by region
The outlook indicates that a typical number of tropical cyclones is most likely in the Australian region and all sub-regions for 2017Ė18.
The Australian region has a 56% chance of having more tropical cyclones than average, meaning a 44% chance of having fewer tropical cyclones than average. Typically, around four tropical cyclones cross the Australian coast in a season. Outlook accuracy for the Australian region is high.
The Western region is likely to experience an average number of tropical cyclones this season, with the likelihood of more than average at 52%. The chance of fewer than average is 48%. Typically between about 15% and 40% of tropical cyclones in the Western region create coastal impacts. Outlook accuracy for the Western region is low.
The Northwestern sub-region has a 56% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 44% chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average. Typically, five cyclones form in or pass through this area each season. Around 40% of tropical cyclones, or their associated tropical lows, effect coastal areas of the Northwestern sub-region. Outlook accuracy for this region is moderate.
The Northern region outlook suggests an average number of tropical cyclones with a 53% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 47% chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average. In a typical year the Northern region experiences around three cyclones, and one or two tropical lows that later become cyclones after moving into the Western or Eastern regions. About three-quarters of the tropical cyclones in the Northern region impact coastal regions. Outlook accuracy for this region is very low.
The Eastern region outlook shows a near average season is most likely, with a 54% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 46% chance of fewer. About a quarter of tropical cyclones in the Eastern region make landfall. Outlook accuracy for this region is low.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/
Posted by: Simmo FNQ

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 11/10/2017 07:43

Thanks for sharing ys.

Does anyone know how the accuracy for the Australian region is high when the accuracy for the 4 regions has 1 moderate, 2 lows and 1 very low.
Does it mean, we usually get the total number of cyclones right but have no idea where they will be.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/10/2017 14:44

Ok, not sure if this fits the rules or is welcome here. I only post occasionally in SEQ thread, but I have followed this guy for a few years and he just posted this, hope all you cyclone freaks and others like it and find it interesting.
Enjoy or let me know to bugga off with this kind of weather. DD
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fm6Y5mETVk4
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/10/2017 21:21

Well, my previous post has been up for 6+ hrs and had nearly a hundred views without comment.
Anyone feel there's any merit in Ben's stats?
Have I put this in the wrong thread??
Posted by: Red Watch

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 08/11/2017 22:37

Need to see some agreement with meteorologists and peer reviewed papers before I put any faith in the theory.
Posted by: Nerd65

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 13/11/2017 18:32

Peer review is one thing but to have your theory peer reviewed it has to be published in a suitable journal. Getting anything published in such a journal is almost impossible for the layman. In these days of the Internet a better course of action is to put all your data and methods up on a website for the review of anyone.

Looking at the video, it had the flavour of "cherry picking". Plenty of nice imagery and examples where high levels of geomagnetic activity corresponded with intense tropical cyclone activity but how often was this not the case?

Of course anyone can assess the correlation between geomagnetic and tropical cyclone activity because the data is publicly available but this bloke is going public and making the claim so the onus is on him.
Posted by: Red Watch

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/11/2017 15:04

The paper linked "Evolution of extratropical cyclones during disturbed geomagnetic conditions" is affiliated with the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia. I would assume that is peer reviewed but it refers to extra-tropical cyclones but most of the systems the video refers to are not extra-tropical systems. The video even refers to a developing cyclone which blacked out South Australia but the the damage was done from at least two tornado's which were formed from a front and an intense low- pressure system.
Posted by: Kino

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/11/2017 16:09

FWIW an intense low-pressure is still a Cyclone, all lows are smile
Posted by: Red Watch

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/11/2017 19:56

Yes the low was technically an extra-tropical cyclone but it was the tornados that done the damage to the infrastructure in South Australia.
"On Wednesday September 28, two tornadoes with wind speeds between 190 and 260 kilometres per hour tore through a single-circuit 275-kilovolts transmission line and a double-circuit 275kV transmission line, about 170km apart.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-28/wind-farm-settings-to-blame-for-sa-blackout-aemo-says/8389920
And this topic should not be in the Tropical Cyclone thread.
Posted by: DDstorm

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/11/2017 20:15

Your right, sorry. Feel free moderators to relocate this to it's rightful forum area. Maybe this is more of a climate driver potential.
Definitely feel a little out of my league but appreciate the comments thus far.
Posted by: Red Watch

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/11/2017 20:19

Mabee the world forum is better as the video is about would weather events. And I don't disbelieve it but the paper linked to the video is about extra-tropical systems which are usually cold cored with a front and the video references mostly tropical systems which are warm cored
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/11/2017 01:00

ext gfs going for first tc of the season in 12 days time. highly unlikely so far out. but moves it SE away anyway.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/11/2017 07:40

Originally Posted By: Mick10
ext gfs going for first tc of the season in 12 days time. highly unlikely so far out. but moves it SE away anyway.


It's been running that for 3 days now.
Posted by: wildopete

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/12/2017 15:29

Anything for that low out in the Coral Sea?
Posted by: darwindix

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/12/2017 17:56

Check out JTWC.Sorry I'm using a well used gen 1apple tablet and can't transpond the info over to the site .They do have an invest on it.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/12/2017 18:31

Weak low has formed in the Solomons but IF it develops it should head out towards New Cal(missus is on a cruise out there so she would have some fun smile ).Right out at the end of the GFS uns though looks interesting. Not showing anything of note but it does have a couple of very weak lows heading west. Could be a good bit of rain out of it
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/12/2017 13:46

Hope we get a good blow north of us next month or in feb. Its needed in the Ville
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/01/2018 15:13

Bom showing possible TL in coral seas next week.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 05/01/2018 12:02

Access has that little spinner on models again next weeekend. Long way off and lets see if it holds this time.
Posted by: Hailin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 05/01/2018 18:29

Something to watch.....always exciting! Thanks for the info rainthisway smile
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 07/01/2018 16:49

Gone now.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 08/01/2018 10:48

Nothing on the models for 2 weeks
Posted by: Locke

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 11/01/2018 11:59

Finally, starting to see some action in the Coral Sea at the end of the most recent extended GFS runs.

Early days yet and will be interesting to see if it persists in coming days.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 12/01/2018 11:23

Well, there's the making of a significant system still towards the end of the latest 18Z run. Something to watch at least even if it is a long way out. Extended GFS has been on the money before with its long term prognostications, but we don't want another Yasi or Debbie.
Posted by: KevD

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 12/01/2018 16:29

Latest GFS run....@ 384 for sure so way out in FI, but consistent between a couple of runs. Both runs also showed uppers that look like they would pull it towards the coast:



Long way off so these runs are no more than a flag that we could see some Coral Sea action coming up...if we follow the usual patterns sure we'll see it drop the idea then bring it back on board again a few times over the next week. For me the uppers seem to offer a greater chance of a crossing (and perhaps even a crossing further south) than I've seen for some time...but also aware that even close to events steering in the Coral Sea is a nightmare for most events so actually laughing at myself for bringing this into the discussion @ this time out (but doing it anyway wink )
Posted by: Stormwithin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 13/01/2018 12:33

According to Facebook page Brisbane weather, it'll hit with Armageddon force 😂
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 13/01/2018 13:03

CS is cooking with SST's primed, loaded & waiting for something like that to make it go BANG!
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 13/01/2018 16:40

Gfs has had something near the end of the month in the coral for a few days now so its likeing the outcome just not sure where it will go....
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 13/01/2018 17:54

more likely than not to probably move SE away and take any weather with from Qld. Prefer a widespread rain event but not likely by the looks
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 13/01/2018 18:27

Mike...not sure where you getting that from cos every run Ive seen pushes it sw towards the coast.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 13/01/2018 18:41

Mike is on the money. Firstly because that is the most common scenario. Secondly because with each new run of GFS the trend that is occurring is a trend towards the south and east of where it was the run before. But as others have said, there is zero point of paying attention to any details this far out. It is just worth noting that there is likely to be enhanced activity around that time
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 13/01/2018 21:17

I am feeling optimistic....not stupid. I know its too far out. But i can dream lol

Each run has the low track everywhere...the path is unreliable but so far the model is holding on to something spinning up deffo worth keeping my eye on. This may not be the rain bringer but its a opportunity to maybe bring some.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/01/2018 07:21

Latest run on weatherzone at least hasnt moved it further from the coast
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/01/2018 08:01

Originally Posted By: rainthisway
I am feeling optimistic....not stupid. I know its too far out. But i can dream lol

Each run has the low track everywhere...the path is unreliable but so far the model is holding on to something spinning up deffo worth keeping my eye on. This may not be the rain bringer but its a opportunity to maybe bring some.


I am with you on the optimism. I dearly hope GFS is on the money but at this point I will take a big rain event. And I will lose my crap if a big system forms and takes the weather away with it.
Although having said what I just said I am not sure a 945 right into Cairns would be all that great. Even a 980 would trash Cairns
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/01/2018 09:25

Ideally for us down here a crossing near cardwell or ingham work work best.
Posted by: Locke

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/01/2018 10:13

And the latest GFS run flip flops again in terms of likely track but steadfastly holds onto formation of a system.

There has been zero consistency on tracking for the past 8 runs on GFS but almost every run has seen the formation of a system in the Coral Sea.

This will get within the EC 10 day forecast window soon so it will be interesting to see what it has to say.
Posted by: ol mate

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/01/2018 11:30

Just wait until the media pick this up, all the Armageddon headlines will start!

Still a long way out, but GFS has been consistent with something popping up out there. I'll start paying attention when EC start showing it as well as GFS. From memory they did well during Debbie. Although my memory is rubbish I could be wrong there...
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/01/2018 11:45

Ec and gfs have been pretty good of late but the track is bouncing everywhere. Last one I saw had a crossing near cairns. Next weekend should give us a clearer idea but I think its safe to say something will happen...but where...who knows. Bom has what looks like the beginnings of a low on there last model for 23rd. Which lines up with gfs. Havent checked ec yet, nothing on ec and latest gfs has Mikes scenerio happening but still I expect that to change just like its change every run.

Someone give the media a tip lol wind them up and watch them go.

If the media says its gonna be end of days it will be a flop, if they say little....watch out qld.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/01/2018 13:36

media already onto, seen it on Mackay and Sunshine Coast paper fb sites already. just way too early to jump up and down, still remember the numpty from Ch9 weather plugging Yasi two weeks out, showing the world hitting Fraser island as a cat5. stupid.
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/01/2018 14:01

Originally Posted By: Mick10
media already onto, seen it on Mackay and Sunshine Coast paper fb sites already. just way too early to jump up and down, still remember the numpty from Ch9 weather plugging Yasi two weeks out, showing the world hitting Fraser island as a cat5. stupid.


Was that Gary Youngberry?
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/01/2018 14:40

For real...yeah its not ment to form til next week. No use predicting where its gonna go yet. And I remember yasi 2 weeks out was forecast to hit brissy as cat 5 too. Some fb weather group causes a scare publishing that model run...morons. at least in here we can talk and hope but no one is stupid enough to make end of thw world speeches
Posted by: Locke

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/01/2018 16:24

00Z GFS now has the system headed towards SE QLD.

EC has a similar synoptic set up to the GFS run at 10 days with the beginnings of the system starting to be seen around the Solomons.

Within the next couple of days we'll get to see how well EC begins to line up with GFS or not.
Posted by: Wrasse42

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/01/2018 16:45

They will change with every run until a week out, one thing for sure is that it definitely looks like some CS action is finally on the cards, conditions are favourable with SSTís primed in the coral sea basin. Something to keep an eye on anyway. I do enjoy looking at the last few frames on extended model runs when they look like this, itís like weather porn. Lol.
Posted by: bundybear

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/01/2018 16:55

Oh no. I am going to die. A cyclone.
I wonder if I can buy a tanker of milk? Better buy an extra freezer for bread.

Ok. Silliness over.

I wish everyone up north a nice mild cyclone that will then be directed by the weather gods to head outback providing them all with the drink they need. It will then proceed in a track south exiting the country at about Adelaide. Hey, I did say 'wish'.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/01/2018 17:30

Lol i have said it before but that latest run is like the original Yasi setup....gfs had it going to seqld....we all k ow that changed. Ut who k ows it might hit seqld. At that strengrh I hope not. Brisbane would be wrecked.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/01/2018 18:34

Something to watch at last.
Coast hugger all the way down to here please & then hang around just west of Fraser for a few days!
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/01/2018 19:17

We need it up here more then you guys down there. You guys dont have as much shortage of water. Its always flooding down there.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/01/2018 20:28

Rainthisway, mate, hope it works out for you. Hope it crosses around Cairns & hugs the line
Posted by: drivenunder

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/01/2018 21:57

I don't want it. If it does form and stay out in the CS - it will take all the rain with it. Hope it does not form...
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/01/2018 22:10

Originally Posted By: drivenunder
I don't want it. If it does form and stay out in the CS - it will take all the rain with it. Hope it does not form...


But then if we have no lows and cyclones and just hot clear weather then the reef will get cooked yet again. Unfortunately(or fortunately depending on your point of view) cyclones are an integral and important part of the natural cycle up here. Like fires down south
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/01/2018 22:21

Stuff the reef.

Its natural. If it cooks it cooks, we need rain.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/01/2018 22:31

We get a cyclone with flooding then they will whinge there is too much fresh water going onto the reef. There is always something.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/01/2018 23:02

Interesting run the latest gfs. Has our low forming in the CS and another forming in the GoC....
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/01/2018 23:43

Looks like the wheels are finally turning.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/01/2018 07:31

Anything in the CS will go SE and anything in the Gulf will go west.

Will have to wait till Febuary now for a chance of rain.
Posted by: ol mate

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/01/2018 09:45

you cant half tell we've been in cyclone/rain withdrawals - at the slight sign of anything we're jumping at it like a fat kid on cake!
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/01/2018 10:29

Two runs in a row GFS sends it towards NZ. Current scenario would be a major event for surfers maybe with a large and moderately strong system in swell generating range of SEQ. GFS forecasts the hated ridge to weaken and so let it easily slide away SE. System still beyond EC 10 day, but end of EC 10 day has a stronger ridge which would give more hope to north Qld maybe?
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/01/2018 10:38

Still long way out...i mean look at debbie even a day out was all over the joint. I am still hoping for something this wet but i mean we usually only get one landfall a year from the CS. So maybe this o e is not the crosser.
Posted by: E-J

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/01/2018 11:31

What I find weird is that GFS 500hPa modelling is not matching up with its surface modelling. I cannot see this eventuating. I think more of a shallow surface feature is likely so as not to be influenced by the uppers if a coastal impact is to happen. Rain likely for Mackay area for mind. But things change rapidly in the CS as we all know
Posted by: KevD

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/01/2018 11:45

Longer EC ensembles at the 10 to 15 day range show lower pressures in the Coral Sea, hanging around before deepening bu then starting to move off to the E / SE with an upper trough across E NSW pushing it away from the QLD coast. There have been runs with some good uppers but they seem to have gone over the last few days...which in turn result I suspect be the reason why models are now sending the feature off to the east. Worst case scenario for rain - a whole heap develops in the Coral Sea but then moves away from the coast. Still...long way off and still way enough time for models to flip back again.
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/01/2018 14:31

Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Anything in the CS will go SE and anything in the Gulf will go west.

Will have to wait till Febuary now for a chance of rain.


The absolute best case scenario for you guys would be for the Coral Sea to stay quiet (as the projected steering patterns simply aren't favorable for a westward moving TC yet), and for a low to spin up in the GoC instead. Extended model runs are trying to break the upper level ridge over Australia down which would mean (if it happened) anything in the gulf would more likely be slow moving, and any hint of trough development over the interior would even promote a E or SE movement. Stuff the Coral Sea for now, conditions out there currently strongly favor graveyard TCs (off to NZ) which take the monsoon away with it.
Posted by: Popeye

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/01/2018 15:56

Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
anything in the Gulf will go west.


I hope your right Trav. Looking forward to another one.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/01/2018 16:39

Models are throwing a low back at the coast. Must be a real confusing prediction happen. The track is seriously all over the joint.
Posted by: mysteriousbrad

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/01/2018 16:41

Cat4/5 into rocky... hah
Posted by: Locke

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/01/2018 16:46

It's going be at least another 10 days before we get any accurate sort of idea where this system will go (if and when it does actually form).

Cyclogenesis is at about 10 days and how far East or West it forms will have a massive bearing on where it goes. You could put up a map of QLD and the Coral Sea and where a blindfold and have as much chance as extended GFS of picking out where it will end up.

Naming is interesting. If extended GFS is accurate Kelvin will form off Western Australia, Linda will be a short-lived cyclone in the GOC leaving us with Marcus for the system forming in the Coral Sea. Perhaps......
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/01/2018 18:07

.
Posted by: gazza townsville

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/01/2018 21:16

The wheels starting to turn. Been absolutely nothing at all to mention before now. So i decided to jump on here to see what my more learned westher watchers thought for the first time this season. So happy new year guys hope you have a grouse and safe one. However i do hope we cam get some action this year been a long time coming!!!
Posted by: Locke

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/01/2018 21:56

And the 06Z has it scooting away to NZ. I would say a slight majority of runs over the past 2 days have favored a SE track towards NZ but wide spread at moment.
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/01/2018 04:34

Originally Posted By: Mega
Stuff the Coral Sea for now, conditions out there currently strongly favor graveyard TCs (off to NZ) which take the monsoon away with it.


I retract this statement...It would be really silly of me to completely write off the Coral Sea. I do it every year and more often than not end up with egg on my face - not falling for it again. Anyway, GFS has favorable steering conditions for westward moving TCs but only for a few days towards the end of the run before troughing returns over the Tasman Sea. However, as usual, take it with a grain of salt that far out.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/01/2018 08:32

Originally Posted By: Locke
And the 06Z has it scooting away to NZ. I would say a slight majority of runs over the past 2 days have favored a SE track towards NZ but wide spread at moment.


And now 12Z GFS back again to Qld coast crossing, early days yet though but will be interesting to watch.
Forecast MJO update for GFS (NCPE) going for strength in movement towards phase 5/6
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
But EC not interested and tending towards weakening. It will be interesting to see how models converge in the week or two ahead.
Posted by: mysteriousbrad

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/01/2018 11:09

Well the bread and milk will be gone in the next hour in rocky... https://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/news/weather-groups-forecast-tropical-cyclone/3311346/
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/01/2018 11:20

And 18z now has it barrelling towards SEQ from out east and then stalling just as it gets close enough to be interesting. And probably then shooting towards graveyard but thats beyond the forecast.
Posted by: Locke

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/01/2018 11:41

I wouldn't mind seeing the upper level forecasts for the 240-384 hr timeframe for GFS to try and get a grasp on whats causing the spread on guidance.
Posted by: KevD

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/01/2018 11:55

Originally Posted By: Locke
I wouldn't mind seeing the upper level forecasts for the 240-384 hr timeframe for GFS to try and get a grasp on whats causing the spread on guidance.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...18011518&fh=240 smile
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/01/2018 12:26

I'm guessing that broader tropical patterns and MJO progress make cyclone development in coral sea highly likely in 10 days. However movement will depend on where the cyclone forms in relation to any subtropical/upper level ridges or troughs, and this far out it is impossible to accurately predict where these will be.
Posted by: gazza townsville

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/01/2018 13:44

I absolutely find it amazing how i know we dont see rain all that often but how many times we see rain to the south like thismorning shifting to the north yet my washing stays dry..... townsville #bubble/dome
Posted by: tsunami

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/01/2018 14:12

Yes gazza used to drive me nuts
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/01/2018 14:32

Gotta love that article.."townsville residents urged to prepare" for what...why townsville...that low has jumped all over the joint...i will say one thing the beginnings of it forming have stayed on the 23rd jan. Theres about 3000km approx of coast that is in the cyclone risk zone, the chance of it hitting any giving place is negotiable at best, yes mackay north has a higher chance then most areas but still...the article shpuld urge people to prepare for the whole season as anywhere in that risk zone could cop it....
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/01/2018 14:55

Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Gotta love that article.."townsville residents urged to prepare" for what...why townsville...that low has jumped all over the joint...i will say one thing the beginnings of it forming have stayed on the 23rd jan. Theres about 3000km approx of coast that is in the cyclone risk zone, the chance of it hitting any giving place is negotiable at best, yes mackay north has a higher chance then most areas but still...the article shpuld urge people to prepare for the whole season as anywhere in that risk zone could cop it....


I'd argue there's nothing wrong with telling people to prepare - the more preparation the better. The 'Townsville' reference simply stems from the fact that the article originally appeared in the Townsville Bulletin.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/01/2018 15:40

This is from the latest Weekly Tropical Note:

Quote:
The MJO in this region would typically assist in invigorating a pre-existing monsoon trough over northwest Australia, however, the broadscale weather pattern in the region is currently not favourable for this to occur. This is primarily due to an out-of-season tropical low which is currently located off the north coast of Borneo. This low is drawing in the energy associated with a surge of winds from the South China Sea which might otherwise cross the equator and energise the monsoon trough in the Australian region.


And here's the culprit that's playing party pooper in inhibiting the monsoonal flow.




Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/01/2018 22:25

So basically until that buggers off. The monsoon is not gonna happen. Has there been a year with no monsoon at all?
Posted by: Stormwithin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/01/2018 22:33

And then gfs cooks up a goc low and sends it west 😂😂
Posted by: Flowin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/01/2018 22:45

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I'm guessing that broader tropical patterns and MJO progress make cyclone development in coral sea highly likely in 10 days. However movement will depend on where the cyclone forms in relation to any subtropical/upper level ridges or troughs, and this far out it is impossible to accurately predict where these will be.

Absolutely agree.. Something brewing in coral sea or gulf is quite a different forecast opinion for confidence perspective compared to confidence of where it will go, and different again for confidence in what it may bring to the "random" location of impacts.
One model only gives a limited "view" or speculation at best for such long lead time..
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 17/01/2018 09:38

A few other models have jumped on board, some less reliable but access has a low forming right near the coast on the 10th day
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 17/01/2018 10:09

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I'm guessing that broader tropical patterns and MJO progress make cyclone development in coral sea highly likely in 10 days.


Or at least a tropical depression. Current GFS has upper unsuitable for development in the coral sea so the low dies and instead the Gulf low develops and moves south.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 18/01/2018 13:54

Seems the low in the cs has been dropped completely now
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 18/01/2018 14:59

Is the activity across Cape York, Gulf and NT the monsoon trough? If not it will do till it arrives as it looks very active up that way. Unusual to see activity up that way streaming down from due north, usually Nw or easterly feed. That area is desperate for rain some all, time record dry areas on maps posted on wz forums recently.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 18/01/2018 17:09

Now multiple models have a low forming. Gfs 8 day having a goc low give us rain followed by a coast hugger in the cs at the end of the 8 day.
Posted by: KevD

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 18/01/2018 18:01

The biggest thing for me over the last week has been the complete inconsistency of the GFS model - sure it indicates something might form, but the complete about turns pretty much every run are poor form. Longer term (10-15 day) EC has been more consistent with a system forming in the Coral Sea but moving off to the east / south east.
Appreciate the problems models have forecasting movement before anything has formed, but even by GFS standards it's feeling pretty poor. Guess it's a case of waiting for something to spin up before the models settle down.
Posted by: Hailin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 18/01/2018 20:42

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Thursday 18 January 2018
for the period until midnight CST Sunday 21 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the region. The monsoon trough located over the northern Top End coast is becoming more active during the next few days. A tropical low may form within the trough and slowly develop. If a low does form it is likely to move towards the Kimberley Coast in WA over the weekend.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Friday:
Very Low.
Saturday:
Very Low.
Sunday:
Very Low.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 18/01/2018 21:33

Pfft....bloody wa is lucky this year
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 19/01/2018 09:36

God I hope we get that GoC low. That would bring good rain.
Posted by: Red Watch

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 19/01/2018 14:35

Originally Posted By: rainthisway
God I hope we get that GoC low. That would bring good rain.

And then moving inland and crossing Townsville as a deep low giving us more rain.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 19/01/2018 14:38

And keep moving further south giving us some rain as well...
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 19/01/2018 15:56

Obviously not going to amount to anything but the vis sat loop is showing some distinct rotation west of Cooktown. I guess this is what is leading to the far larger than forecast falls on the NTC
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 19/01/2018 19:26

Id say so lol
Posted by: Hailin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/01/2018 17:15

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Saturday 20 January 2018
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 23 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough extends northwest to southeast across the Top End. A weak Tropical Low, 1002 hPa, is located in the monsoon trough over the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria. The Low is expected to remain slow moving over the next day or two, before moving to the west early next week. If the Low remains over water there is only a low chance of it developing into a Tropical Cyclone in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria on Monday.
Although the movement of the Low is uncertain in the longer term, the risk of a Tropical Cyclone developing remains low on Tuesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Sunday:
Very Low.
Monday:
Low.
Tuesday:
Low
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/01/2018 17:16

The eddy that was west of cooktown has dissapeard now which seems to have lessened the amount of rain coming onto the coast but jeez things are starting to look lively in the southern gulf. really getting interested now to see where it consolidates
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/01/2018 17:51

BOM says likely to move west early in the new week, latest GFS pushes it into SE GOC coast, sadly a weak low/trough in the coral sea stops any decent convergence along the east coast from the lows inflow.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/01/2018 21:21

Why is there over 300 mm forecast for this week by gfs and about 200mm on bom watl.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/01/2018 21:44

GFS is always pumped up on delusions of granduer
Posted by: Steve O

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/01/2018 22:12

WATL is the average of all the major models, if one is going for say 300mm and others are showing less then the forecast accumulated totals will be less.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/01/2018 22:34

all models forecast any coral sea low to move east, access and ec have a GOC low moving west, GFS only one moving it east.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/01/2018 22:46

The GOC one looks the go. As for the NQ coast may just be some convergence associated with the onshore flow feeding into the GOC and low pressure in the CS definitely something brewing..
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/01/2018 07:56

BOM dont think anything substantial will happen until late jan early feb when the MJO is around.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/01/2018 07:58

ACCESS is throwing up an interesting scenario towards the end of January with two lows in the Coral Sea and two lows in the Indian Ocean.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/01/2018 08:44

Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
ACCESS is throwing up an interesting scenario towards the end of January with two lows in the Coral Sea and two lows in the Indian Ocean.


Yes, Chris, but the mid-level amplifying trough at the end of the run would have it being carted off fairly quickly to the SE:

Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/01/2018 11:04

There is also a big blocking high to the south which should steer anything west.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/01/2018 14:10

Yea I just hope nothing breaks down that ridge. As that will take all the warm moist air with it to the graveyard.
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/01/2018 15:49

Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
There is also a big blocking high to the south which should steer anything west.


Like IW said, above the blocking high is a large upper level trough, so anything embedded in it (unless it's extremely weak) will head SE. The trough itself can be steered west but only if the low level ridge under it gains more depth (look at 700mb-500mb for this).
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/01/2018 17:09

AccessG still has lows hanging around but only just. It also has a serious looking thing in WA in a weeks time, maybe that can somehow come across & give us some rain at least?
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/01/2018 18:04

Would just like to remind everyone that 2018 is the 100th anniversiary of the year QLD got nailed by 2 cat 5's in a single year. Innisfail and Mackay. I don't think it had ever happened before and has never happened since. Just imagine the carnage goven the structural integrity of buildings back then.
Posted by: darwindix

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/01/2018 19:03

I was reading an interesting ABC article yesterday on the unnamed Mackay cyclone of 1918 and they said it was a cat 4.Albeit with a 3.5metre storm surge.Either way it did destroy the town
Posted by: scott12

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/01/2018 19:14

Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Would just like to remind everyone that 2018 is the 100th anniversiary of the year QLD got nailed by 2 cat 5's in a single year. Innisfail and Mackay. I don't think it had ever happened before and has never happened since. Just imagine the carnage goven the structural integrity of buildings back then.


Particularly devastating for Mission beach as it totally destroyed the new Tropical fruit plantations around Bingil Bay and the jetty and associated infractructure and actually took the "Mission" out of Mission Beach with the remaining aboriginal population transferred to Palm Island.....up to 7m storm surge evidence can still be seen as a pumice line in the foothills behind North Mision Beach...Innisfail was almost totally destroyed as well...reports of up to 100 people killed during that cyclone.....yep as Brett states there would not have been many buildings left standing...
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/01/2018 19:25

Originally Posted By: darwindix
I was reading an interesting ABC article yesterday on the unnamed Mackay cyclone of 1918 and they said it was a cat 4.Albeit with a 3.5metre storm surge.Either way it did destroy the town


It's possible. I had always heard they were both fives but measurements back then would always be a little suspect.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/01/2018 20:26

Fascinating information Scott12. Thanks for sharing. Where did you find this info?
Posted by: Stormy3

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/01/2018 20:29

interesting video below.Mackay cyclone of 1918

https://www.facebook.com/ABCRural/videos/10155043779216681/

Posted by: marakai

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 22/01/2018 01:09

Notice how people back then just accepted life's challenges and got on with things, picked up the pieces, moved on and rebuilt? Now we have people who somehow think screaming at the sky in a pussy hat will make a difference to their lives.
Posted by: Blair Trewin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 22/01/2018 10:11

It's known that both the 1918 cyclones were at least category 4, from the pressure readings in the respective towns. It's quite likely that one or both were more intense than that, but there is no way of knowing for sure.

(Looking at this the other way, had, for example, Marcia happened with the 1950 observation network and population spread, it would have been assessed as a category 3 at most, more likely a 2, as its peak intensity was not captured by any surface observations, nor was there any significant population near its landfall point).
Posted by: E-J

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 22/01/2018 11:19

Similarly Cyclone Larry should have been classified a Category 3 system owing to land obs, but widespread structural damage simply does not backup the land obs. It was much stronger, however weakening on landfall. From the post evidence from Marcia, not even close to a Category 5, I think the BOM screwed that one up majorly.

Back on topic. Nothing will happen in the CS until 2nd week Feb IMO. WA and Gulf to fire with everything pushing west.
Posted by: E-J

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 22/01/2018 11:28

Similarly Cyclone Larry should have been classified a Category 3 system owing to land obs, but widespread structural damage simply does not backup the land obs. It was much stronger, however weakening on landfall. From the post evidence from Marcia, not even close to a Category 5, I think the BOM screwed that one up majorly.

Back on topic. Nothing will happen in the CS until 2nd week Feb IMO. WA and Gulf to fire with everything pushing west.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 22/01/2018 11:47

I wonder why everything is pushed west all the time in the Gulf and Western Australia?
Posted by: Blis

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 22/01/2018 12:16

This was published a few mins ago.


http://www.cairnspost.com.au/news/cairns...11ea6c0d577773a
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 22/01/2018 14:43

*sigh* I dont think the BOM really knows whats gonna happen. One article it says no monsoon for townsville in next week then an article a day later says the opposite and that we will get monsoon rains. I guess its a case of wait and see.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 22/01/2018 18:08

Gfs interested in a goc low going east around 29th.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 22/01/2018 21:28

if GFS is right and sends the GOC low east, it will be for little, GFS forms a southern coral sea trough or weak low and that stops and convergence on the SE side of the GOC low.
doesnt matter if GFS or EC is right on the current model runs, both screw NQ over in one way or another.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 22/01/2018 21:45

Still who knows what will happen really. Everything is all over the place.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 22/01/2018 22:12

I have been closely watching the forecasts for Weipa. They change massively from forecast to forecast. Must be a very difficult forecasting environment.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 22/01/2018 22:22

Originally Posted By: Mick10
if GFS is right and sends the GOC low east, it will be for little, GFS forms a southern coral sea trough or weak low and that stops and convergence on the SE side of the GOC low.
doesnt matter if GFS or EC is right on the current model runs, both screw NQ over in one way or another.


On the bright side there is so much disagreement and chopping and changing that we could easily see a completely different scenario to anything the models have shown us yet
Posted by: SBT

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 23/01/2018 10:31

Its a model providing a simulation of what may occur, but probably won't. Almost 3 months into the season and nada on the east coast. Hopefully in Feb we will get a lovely little slow Cat 1 or 2 wandering down the coast to fill our dam in Townsville, but I'm not holding my breath.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 23/01/2018 11:12

Townsville is the most unluckiest place on the planet when it comes to rain
I think its the only place in the world that can have a monsoon trough sitting right over it and still not get rain
Posted by: cold@28

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 23/01/2018 11:45

Originally Posted By: tsunami
Townsville is the most unluckiest place on the planet when it comes to rain
I think its the only place in the world that can have a monsoon trough sitting right over it and still not get rain


Apart from Chillagoe. And most storms will split around us.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 23/01/2018 18:17

Originally Posted By: tsunami
Townsville is the most unluckiest place on the planet when it comes to rain
I think its the only place in the world that can have a monsoon trough sitting right over it and still not get rain

I lived in Townsville 1998 to 2000. It was quite wet👍
I acknowledge though it is the variability year to year decade to decade where Townsville has notable dry periods, including the now.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 23/01/2018 21:46

yeah we accept we have dry periods here, you know that after a few wet ones, a few dry ones will follow. but this current period (5 years) is dragging on way too long now. getting to be ridiculous.


CS will throw up a few lows in the next week to ten days, everything will move SE, now doubt about it now.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 23/01/2018 22:05

Sometimes I think the model outputs show too much colour and not enough human mind interpretation.
I still like the old style charts for 4 day MSLP and features. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
Seems quite complex with a lot of lows... Challenging for models and not surprising for volatility in predictions.

Agree the wettest time of year for NQ is not showing much. For further south, especially south of Fraser Island, statistical average wettest month, and actual wettest month year to year is a lot more vague
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 24/01/2018 10:05

first of those lows showing up on the willis island radar. models keep it weak for a day or two before strengthening as it moves eastwards.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 24/01/2018 11:53

The majority of lows move SE...its the norm...but we will get our rain. Maybe not above average as BOM forecast but it will happen.
Posted by: Red Watch

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 24/01/2018 11:59

Originally Posted By: Mick10
first of those lows showing up on the willis island radar. models keep it weak for a day or two before strengthening as it moves eastwards.

EC has it combining with another weak low south of the Solomon Islands and then a large high over New Zealand moves east allowing it to head for the graveyard. By the looks of the structure of the low as it heads SE there must be high wind shear stopping it from developing too much, but New Zealand should get some wet windy weather from it.
Posted by: Locke

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 24/01/2018 12:12

Bah.

GFS seems to have a "conga line" of TC's or lows heading towards NZ at least in the foreseeable future.

I guess plenty of wet and windy weather for FNQ whilst this goes on.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 24/01/2018 12:19

3 of the models on weatherzone show a GoC low move east, 2 show it moving west, weatherzones synoptic shows it moving east too...looks like the models cant agree on anything. Must be so many variables lately that the models are virtually useless....more so then usual.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 24/01/2018 14:14

Just had a look at NZ Metservice Tropical Cyclone Outlook until 1200 UTC Saturday 27 Jan 2018.
A depression is expected to develop in the Coral Sea later this week. There is a low risk of this depression developing into a cyclone before Saturday. Increasing to a moderate risk on Saturday.
BOM has a very low risk until Friday, very interested in their new update this afternoon.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 24/01/2018 16:06

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 24 January 2018
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 27 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak trough currently extends across the northwest Coral Sea. This trough is expected to deepen and become more active as a monsoon develops through the Coral Sea from Friday through the weekend.
A low may develop within the monsoon trough over the Coral Sea in the coming days, well offshore from the Queensland coast, with a moderate chance of cyclone development from Saturday as the monsoon strengthens. If a low or tropical cyclone did form, it would move east-southeast, away from the Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday:Very low
Friday:Very low
Saturday:Moderate

Considering the decent rotation already evident on the Willis radar, surprised they are saying 'a low may develop'.
Posted by: Red Watch

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 24/01/2018 18:04

Originally Posted By: Locke
Bah.

GFS seems to have a "conga line" of TC's or lows heading towards NZ at least in the foreseeable future.

I guess plenty of wet and windy weather for FNQ whilst this goes on.

Yea far north as in north of Cairns, so Cooktown should see some wet wild weather if that low/cyclone that comes through the gulf and crosses the cape near Cooktown happens as GFS predicts.
Posted by: Red Watch

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 24/01/2018 18:08

Originally Posted By: Mick10
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 24 January 2018
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 27 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.
Potential Cyclones:

A weak trough currently extends across the northwest Coral Sea. This trough is expected to deepen and become more active as a monsoon develops through the Coral Sea from Friday through the weekend.
A low may develop within the monsoon trough over the Coral Sea in the coming days, well offshore from the Queensland coast, with a moderate chance of cyclone development from Saturday as the monsoon strengthens. If a low or tropical cyclone did form, it would move east-southeast, away from the Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday:Very low
Friday:Very low
Saturday:Moderate

Considering the decent rotation already evident on the Willis radar, surprised they are saying 'a low may develop'.

The bureau has a 1004 low there on the "Analysis for 00:00 UTC on Wednesday 24 January 2018". GFS and EC has it at 1001 on www.windy.com
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 24/01/2018 18:29

Can only just make out its rotation to the north of willis now, still spinning away but gee its moved quickly since this morning. get some good cloud around it on sat pic.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 24/01/2018 19:12

AccessG seems to have zero interest in the gulf low but GFS is still pretty determined to go with it. You would think this close they should be a little better aligned
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 24/01/2018 19:19

Its been like that for weeks...no models align.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 24/01/2018 20:09

That always makes me laugh, when you see the term "a low may develop"

Sometimes on their synoptic chart there will have been a low sitting there for 3 or more days.
Posted by: gazza townsville

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/01/2018 14:31

Well typical Townsville Bulliten fashion scare mongering. You would have to assume that they have stake of some kind in coles and woolies ffs
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/01/2018 16:29

Stupid article. Total joke.
Posted by: Hailin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/01/2018 18:15

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Thursday 25 January 2018
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 28 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.
Potential Cyclones:
A weak low pressure system is currently located to the southeast of Papua New Guinea. Due to the developing monsoon across the northern Coral Sea, the low is forecast to intensify over the next few days.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone, well offshore from the Queensland coast, with a moderate chance of development on Saturday and Sunday as the monsoon strengthens. If a tropical cyclone did form, it would move east to southeast, away from the Australian east coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday:Very low
Saturday:Moderate
Sunday:Moderate
Posted by: Hailin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/01/2018 18:16

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:19 pm CST on Thursday 25 January 2018
for the period until midnight CST Sunday 28 January 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough extends across the base of the Top End. A Tropical Low, 1000 hPa, is located over land in the monsoon trough approximately 180km southwest of Katherine. The Low is expected to slowly move westwards over the next few days. The low is expected to remain well inland.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Friday:Very Low.
Saturday:Very Low.
Sunday:Very Low.
Posted by: gazza townsville

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/01/2018 19:56

Stupid article i agree but just went to coles. No bread no milk and thats pretty much all i went there for pain in the arse what happens over crap every single time.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/01/2018 21:11

the Townsville Bulletin, supporting local grocers every wet season since 1881!
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/01/2018 21:32

Weren't there times in the past where some of you guys sent in complaints about such articles? I guess they'll never learn.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/01/2018 01:09

sure did, journos, editors come and go. esp regional papers.
Posted by: pabloako

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/01/2018 08:10

Hopefully it is time to wake up from my boring weather hibernation!

This satellite image timelapse, which updates every 30 minutes, gives a good idea of how things are potentially building up in our region.

http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-Pacific.aspx
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/01/2018 11:15

Every bit of moisture helps.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/01/2018 13:11

But don't all the models have everything roaring off to the SE or westward and leaving most of Eastern Australia bone dry?
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/01/2018 17:41

Current GFS has a TC hitting FNQ near Cairns on Feb 10.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/01/2018 19:19

Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Current GFS has a TC hitting FNQ near Cairns on Feb 10.


Can't wait for the media to get a hold of that. grin
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/01/2018 19:59

There have fun with that lol
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/01/2018 20:30

Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Current GFS has a TC hitting FNQ near Cairns on Feb 10.


Can't wait for the media to get a hold of that. grin


That'll be interesting to watch for sure.

I wonder if the Queensland Tourism Industry Council shall complain at that as well. lol

http://www.news.com.au/travel/australian...9965b0f25b05525
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/01/2018 21:54

Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Current GFS has a TC hitting FNQ near Cairns on Feb 10.


Gone. Another swimmer off to the graveyard on their update.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/01/2018 15:04

If we get a coast crosser I am betting its in march or april.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/01/2018 10:44

Looks like some rotation on a line just north of weipa. What a waste!
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/01/2018 14:36

Anyone seen the latest access....a low enters cs from CYP and just sits almost stationary for days intensifying. Thoughts?
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/01/2018 15:53

Probably hanging around waiting for that bastard upper trough to p.o. & then do a coast hugger all the way to Coolangatta!
I wish!
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/01/2018 16:11

Haha. That would be awesome.
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/01/2018 21:17

Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Anyone seen the latest access....a low enters cs from CYP and just sits almost stationary for days intensifying. Thoughts?


Think you'll find it was captured within the GFS modelling runs around Monday (22 Jan) - low enters cs from CYP.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/01/2018 23:03

And access has it slipping to the SE. I still say we will get a crosser in march maybe april.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 29/01/2018 15:53

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Monday 29 January 2018
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 1 February 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop today or during Tuesday. A strengthening monsoon flow will develop in the northwest Coral Sea from mid-week, leading to an increase in the risk of tropical cyclone potential later in the week. If a tropical cyclone was to form in the northwest Coral Sea, it would move east-southeast, away from the Queensland coast.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Low
Thursday:Moderate


http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cyclone.shtml
Posted by: SnowedIn

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 29/01/2018 19:12

I'm heading to Cairns and Port Douglas from the 10-18 Feb. what are the chances of anything significant?
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 29/01/2018 19:30

At this stage, slim.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/01/2018 13:14

This morning most models were indicating better steering flow more favourable for QLD in around 7-10 days time so hopefully by then there's a system out there taking advantage of this.
Posted by: Hello Hurricane

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/01/2018 15:51

Likelihood of a Tropical Cyclone for Friday - High.

Quote:
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Tuesday 30 January 2018
for the period until midnight EST Friday 2 February 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Potential Cyclones:
There are no significant lows currently in the region and none are expected to develop today or during Wednesday. Strengthening monsoon flow in the northwest Coral Sea will increase the chance of tropical cyclone development from Thursday, more likely along the monsoon trough.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Moderate
Friday:High

Conditions for tropical cyclone development, or a tropical cyclone to persist, remain favourable over the weekend, with the best chance along the monsoon trough in the northern Coral Sea.

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50%
The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/01/2018 16:21

latest GFS moving the system east south east still, expect the other models to say the same tonight.
Posted by: ol mate

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/01/2018 16:31

EC and Access briefly push it towards the coast then it scoots off to cyclone never-never
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/01/2018 16:59

We all know everything will be pushed SE.

Once conditions are favourable we will get nothing lol
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/01/2018 17:12

Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
This morning most models were indicating better steering flow more favourable for QLD in around 7-10 days time so hopefully by then there's a system out there taking advantage of this.
Gone, trough over the CS on every single day of GFS 14 day.
Posted by: gazza townsville

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/01/2018 17:36

Media suggesting cyclone formation friday big front page looking spread. No molk at coles again
Posted by: Red Watch

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/01/2018 19:55

Maybe the media should read this page.
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/modelling-and-prediction
Posted by: bundybear

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/01/2018 20:00

Yep. Local woman spreading the "CYCLONE" to local pages. Not really sure she appreciated my comment about it not being expected to impact the east coast. Sort of took the drama away from her.

For goodness sake. It is the wet season, cyclone season, flood season, drought season. If they aren't prepared for weather they never will be.
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/01/2018 21:17

Originally Posted By: Red Watch


Yeah, good luck with that. The words 'based on the best available data' or 'we don't want the detail' immediately come to mind. smile
Posted by: Flowin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/01/2018 22:36

I often frown at what media says
But ultimately they run with a combination of what they are told and know
So does it mean they need to know more, or be told more?
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/01/2018 11:50

Higgins has us on cyclone watch
Posted by: Rawhide

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/01/2018 11:56

Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Higgins has us on cyclone watch


Not any more.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/01/2018 12:06

Cyclone? What cyclone?
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/01/2018 12:11

Watch the cyclone sail away towards the SE?

Maybe there will be a window when the current westerly burst finishes up in the Pacific. If the trade winds surge again then anything formed on the tail end of this MJO/westerly burst may be pushed towards the coast, at least in the lower levels. Not going to look at what the uppper's are forecast as I don't want to.

I did look a bit more into the Tasman Sea situation at charts for last 90 days etc, and to me it looks like there is a solid ridge through the middle and upper levels over the warm water. Much of the jetstream is pushed to the south around the blockage, but some of it is instead going around it to the north, hence higher shear and upper troughing through the coral sea.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/01/2018 13:06

Hes a absolute twat.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/01/2018 13:11

Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Higgins has us on cyclone watch


Posted by: JuzzyDee

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/01/2018 13:47

Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Higgins has us on cyclone watch


For the life of me I canít understand why the papers put so much weight into anything that Hollywood says. Whatís almost gag worthy is the people fawning over him in the comments. Anybody would think there isnít an organisation full of well educated, qualified individuals whose very job it is to know about the weather.

The headline was ďHiggins issues cyclone watchĒ. What in the wotime Le? Who is he to be issuing anything, let alone cyclone watch. Next heíll be telling his followers weather to use the emergency broadcast sirens before broadcasting updates.
Posted by: gazza townsville

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/01/2018 16:16

I honestly believe the media grab anything anyone says and jam it on the front page putting people who havent been following (which is a lot) into a panic and smash the tin food water and milk i saw a pallet of water out the front of coles yesterday so coles are cashing in on peoples insecurities. The media would know damn well what is happening and im calling it. There had to be some kind of handshake agreement between the bully and perhaps others at higher levels im no conspiricy chaser but this happens way to often for it to be anything else i wrecken. Im happy to be wrong or proven wrong. However im a union member and delegate and i know and have sen these games played there is nothing really wrong with it but it sucks when i cant get milk and because they are pumping the water and levels are low ee drink bottled water. Lol i have written a book the main reason i even came here was to ask you guys if there was any way to open forum from the app or a different app instead of doing it through browser??? Have a nice day guys wishing in some rain and wind here in townsville. If not the wind just some desperately needed rain over the catchment would be great. Later Gaz
Posted by: ol mate

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/01/2018 21:11

Higgins. Lol. I questioned why they had us on cyclone watch when every model had any potential cyclone moving away. I was promptly blocked. And I wasn't even a smart ass about it! Then some of the idiots in high places in the media run his 'advice' as gospel because his 'advice' is the most headline-worthy. And even then they exaggerate his word.
Posted by: cold@28

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/01/2018 22:02

Originally Posted By: ol mate
Higgins. Lol. I questioned why they had us on cyclone watch when every model had any potential cyclone moving away. I was promptly blocked. And I wasn't even a smart ass about it! Then some of the idiots in high places in the media run his 'advice' as gospel because his 'advice' is the most headline-worthy. And even then they exaggerate his word.

I had never heard of Higgins before this conversation. Who is this character. Talk about arrogant, and of course misleading. From my brief look tonight he appears to be operating as a service, can the ACCC do anything?
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/01/2018 22:29

Higgins in a moron.
Posted by: Seina

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/01/2018 23:05

Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Red Watch


Yeah, good luck with that. The words 'based on the best available data' or 'we don't want the detail' immediately come to mind. smile

Well that's just it -- issue proper warnings, or don't issue them at all I'd think...!
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/01/2018 23:53

he is the most over hyped person i have seen on line. some of his forecasts (claims more like it) are a joke. imo, a stain on the weather community. has no responsibility at all and sadly is followed by well over half a million people on facebook. this latest stunt just proves he has no morals, and is happy to put up a dodgy headline in the hope of more clicks.
sadly, the media fell for it and roped the BOM into, and when things dont got to plan, people then blame the BOM.
Posted by: ol mate

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/02/2018 00:00

It'd be good if the media questioned his forcast instead of publishing him
And giving him more exposure. Slightly off topic - a few years back he predicted super rains or some similar description over the Xmas/new year period. He and his Facebook page ended up being quoted online and on the tv. The local caravan park was booked solid but lost 30% of the bookings because of all of the hype. In the end we got sunshowers and overcast days, and very little in the way of rain. I remember looking at the models and thinking where on earth is this bloke getting his info from!

Ok I'll shut up now smile no more mention of the 'H' word.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/02/2018 07:14

Its all the stupid media's fault. He is a snake oil merchant sucking money from the gullible and stupid. Dont think there is a law against stupid people buying snake oil?
Posted by: pabloako

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/02/2018 14:04

Clever bloke really. He comes out with dribble like this, it gets jumped on by the sensationalists and he sells more mobile apps and gets more add revenue. Clever.
Posted by: gazza townsville

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/02/2018 15:05

So all the models still in agreement on moving away to the graveyard im up the hospital with my missus and have very limited internet access.
One would hope a southern high pops up and drives it to the coast. Very wishful thinking i assume but one can only hope at least that the patterns change from now onward and give us a chance of a blow and if not that some rain to fill that dam im sick of buying bottles water.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/02/2018 17:34

Originally Posted By: gazza townsville
So all the models still in agreement on moving away to the graveyard .


Not much chance of any change in the next 10 days if the majors are right. Ridging right up the east coast throughout.

Posted by: ColdFront

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/02/2018 17:34

On the issue of "that" social media outlet posting up sensationalism, the federal government should legislate to stop ALL social media sites from charging subscription for weather content UNLESS the person providing the information is a qualified meteorologist.
Posted by: RC

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/02/2018 21:57

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
On the issue of "that" social media outlet posting up sensationalism, the federal government should legislate to stop ALL social media sites from charging subscription for weather content UNLESS the person providing the information is a qualified meteorologist.


Yes, just what we need, more regulation.

How about educating people to be more intelligent in the first place. I guess the last thing many people would want is an intelligent population, over an over educated but immature population.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/02/2018 22:03

Originally Posted By: RC
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
On the issue of "that" social media outlet posting up sensationalism, the federal government should legislate to stop ALL social media sites from charging subscription for weather content UNLESS the person providing the information is a qualified meteorologist.


Yes, just what we need, more regulation.

How about educating people to be more intelligent in the first place. I guess the last thing many people would want is an intelligent population, over an over educated but immature population.


laugh

When media outlets are quoting some fb clown with profit as his primary agenda ABOVE education then yes, more regulation is definitely needed.

P.S it's always that mob you heap praise on that make massive cuts to education. Funny stuff.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/02/2018 23:20

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: RC
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
On the issue of "that" social media outlet posting up sensationalism, the federal government should legislate to stop ALL social media sites from charging subscription for weather content UNLESS the person providing the information is a qualified meteorologist.


Yes, just what we need, more regulation.

How about educating people to be more intelligent in the first place. I guess the last thing many people would want is an intelligent population, over an over educated but immature population.


laugh

When media outlets are quoting some fb clown with profit as his primary agenda ABOVE education then yes, more regulation is definitely needed.

P.S it's always that mob you heap praise on that make massive cuts to education. Funny stuff.


I read both the above, agree in principle, but pragmatically say no way it will happen. My suggestion is that bring in laws that when they get it wrong they must publish apology and correction. Would sharpen the judgement of the amateurs, those exploiting publicity, and also the professional agencies.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/02/2018 23:23

I am waiting for said sensationalist to provide correction and apology. But since I don't use Facebook Twitter and the like I guess I won't know about it if it happens
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/02/2018 01:26

Originally Posted By: Flowin
I am waiting for said sensationalist to provide correction and apology.

the self assessed "Cyclone Watch" was self "cancelled" the following day, based on model data that showed the system would not proceed westwards. Failing to indicate that all models showed a general eastwards movement anyway, after a very slight west wobble.
Posted by: RC

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/02/2018 10:19

Originally Posted By: ColdFront

When media outlets are quoting some fb clown with profit as his primary agenda ABOVE education then yes, more regulation is definitely needed.




No, just no.
Posted by: FineElsewhere

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/02/2018 10:22

As a long term outsider at weatherzone forums , I find it a little disappointing that this thread has degenerated into a 'crucifixation' (probably deserved) rather than genuine discussion on lows/cyclones in the coral sea.
Example - Rapidly rising MJO
- BOM has a moderate chance of tc forming on Sunday
- JTWC has an interest in a low possibly forming soon...

Yes I know the models show any tc going to the 'graveyard' but it wouldn't be the first time a model was wrong.
Not trying to be over critical - It's just that this forum used to be a goldmine of information and links to what is actually happening saving morons like me trying to find it online.
Thanks for you time
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/02/2018 11:34

Originally Posted By: RC
Originally Posted By: ColdFront

When media outlets are quoting some fb clown with profit as his primary agenda ABOVE education then yes, more regulation is definitely needed.




No, just no.


The heavier regulation should be on the professional media really. If a news station is not capable of doing VERY basic research and finding out its own facts it should pay a heafty price.
Posted by: bbowen

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/02/2018 11:57

Oi Folks Fine Elsewhere has already mentioned this isn't the place for your political/journalistic integrity discussion. By all means start a new thread and I'm sure everyone will enjoy it, but not here in this thread.
in fact I just created on.

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...dia#Post1451286
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/02/2018 16:43

Originally Posted By: FineElsewhere
As a long term outsider at weatherzone forums , I find it a little disappointing that this thread has degenerated into a 'crucifixation' (probably deserved) rather than genuine discussion on lows/cyclones in the coral sea.
Example - Rapidly rising MJO
- BOM has a moderate chance of tc forming on Sunday
- JTWC has an interest in a low possibly forming soon...

Yes I know the models show any tc going to the 'graveyard' but it wouldn't be the first time a model was wrong.
Not trying to be over critical - It's just that this forum used to be a goldmine of information and links to what is actually happening saving morons like me trying to find it online.
Thanks for you time


Well said. Invest 96P has been on the radar for the last couple of days, and 97P today (new). The Low Pressure Systems which have come from the Gulf has been interesting to watch, given that we've had some good rainfall in Far North Queensland and the remaining of Northern Australia over the past 2 weeks.

In the meantime, TC Cebile has resulted in some great imagery being provided online. Cairns in particular, has seen a considerable shift in DTD temps at the 3pm, 6pm and 9pm timeframes.
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/02/2018 16:44

Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Originally Posted By: RC
Originally Posted By: ColdFront

When media outlets are quoting some fb clown with profit as his primary agenda ABOVE education then yes, more regulation is definitely needed.




No, just no.


The heavier regulation should be on the professional media really. If a news station is not capable of doing VERY basic research and finding out its own facts it should pay a heafty price.


Spot on.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/02/2018 17:47

as FEW mentioned, lets get it back on track. Was happy to let the conversation slide for a bit as technically it was about cyclone development and its discussion in the media, sadly some had to go and bring up politics.

Anyway, latest outlook below. The coral sea is not getting a chance so far this season.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:31 pm EST on Friday 2 February 2018
for the period until midnight EST Monday 5 February 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough extends across the northern Coral Sea, and a series of weak and transient lows have been observed along its length in the previous few days.

Atmospheric conditions are becoming less favourable for tropical cyclone development, and the probability of a tropical cyclone developing during the next few days is now considered to be very low.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very Low
Monday:Very Low
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 03/02/2018 19:19

I speculated a while back that the back end of the current WWB may provide opportunity for a cyclone heading towards the coast. Ironically there is one forecast to move SW at the end of the GFS run, but starting from so far out it still hits NZ.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/02/2018 00:25

I'm surprised that no-one has made mention of Yasi's 7th anniversary of crossing the coast (Feb 3rd 2011).
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/02/2018 04:53

Classic Coral Sea:

Posted by: nimbuss1

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 08/02/2018 01:23

nice little blob hanging out of Cooktown.....
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite/qld
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 08/02/2018 08:57

Just monsoon trough convection id say
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 08/02/2018 14:17

Yep, it's now invest 99P. Models have it moving away.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 08/02/2018 15:40

Invest 97SH may be one to watch. It is a lot further east (beyond New Caledonia) and models suggest going east then turning back. No sign yet of any interest for Qld, but coming back a long way and so will be interesting to watch nonetheless. Albeit it is just a model speculation at present.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/southernhemisphere/2018/sh972018/

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...018020718&fh=30
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 08/02/2018 17:40

Comes back along way but too far south. Certainly one to watch as you say. Good pick up.
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 08/02/2018 18:16

Gotta love how the NZ / Tasman Sea trough magically reappears as soon as that TC gets close to the Aussie AOR. Classic.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/02/2018 00:22

Just like clockwork.

Im sure there is some sort of connection. Has to be.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/02/2018 02:23

i remember the days when February cyclones had no steering at all laugh
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/kelvin.shtml
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/02/2018 04:52

Wow Kelvin was all over the place.
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/02/2018 05:45

Latest GFS run has an interesting result crossing around Hervey Bay, as a Topical Depression or Cat 1 at around day 15. In terms of time, it's a long time between models and there's a substantial amount of time which allows the model inputs to change and alter the proposed course. Nonetheless, subsequent model runs have resulted in a more northern track being proposed in the model.
Posted by: Locke

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/02/2018 07:09

I've been noticing that the model runs have been shifting that system a little further west with each passing run.

12z was the first run to bring it back onto the QLD coast.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/02/2018 07:41

EC model also aligning to GFS
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/02/2018 09:50

Latest GFS run has it barrelling towards NSW before dying in the Tasman Sea as it heads to NZ.
Posted by: ifishcq

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/02/2018 09:55

Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Latest GFS run has it barrelling towards NSW before dying in the Tasman Sea as it heads to NZ.


NZ seems to get more cyclones that Qld & NT combined
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/02/2018 14:26

Just two of GFS's 18z ensemble members even bring it back towards the coast at all.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/02/2018 15:07

My prediction is it will be a coast hugger from harvey bay towards townsville but before it reachs tsv it will turn east and bugger off lol

Seriously. All models are aligning so far for that system to turn to the west. They differ on speed and t4ack but deffo all agree on the system coming back towards the Queensland coast.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/02/2018 17:51

Yea well that will be a first for me, I've never seen one come from there and make it close to our coast (im sure its happened before just not in the past 10 years that I can remember) That low models had going to NZ which seems more plausible. On another note and I don't want to bring it up but I had to laugh about Higgins not happy about the media talking it up lol
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/02/2018 20:04

Stevo, quite a few times cyclones have come out from very far east (off the charts ) and barrelled into the coast and some to south-east qld. Not unusual and i think it was common in the eighties
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/02/2018 08:02

I would never say it was common.
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/02/2018 08:05

Dawgggg , compared to now buddy.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/02/2018 12:40

I had a look back in the eighties and your right. A few did hit the queensland coast in various locations and they came out from way east. Its uncommon but not impossible.
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/02/2018 13:31

Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
I would never say it was common.


Especially not from that far out.

With current system, we basically get 3-4 days worth of ridging across the Tasman & CS followed by another endless stream of trough development between NSW & NZ. Doesn't seem fair that our window of opportunity is always so small. Personally had a gutful of the endless troughiness through that area for the past month. Everyone was hyping up those hot SSTs in the Tasman Sea and so far they've done jack for us but enhanced rainfall for the west coast of NZ.

This doesn't look good no matter how you look at it:

Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/02/2018 14:18

Yep there's often been talk of big rains coming whenever SST's become really warm off the east coast but there's often cases when no big rains eventuate due to unfavourable synoptic patterns - this summer being a classic example.

Social media has also been rife (again) with ongoing rumours about a "twin cyclone" impact on NE NSW/SE QLD within the next couple of weeks based on extended GFS.

Below is the latest track spread for TC Gita from a range of deterministic models and ensembles colour-coded by intensity (via the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program). Uses the non-Australian intensity scale:


Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 11/02/2018 06:33

Awesome graphic Ken. Very greatful for your input as always.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 11/02/2018 11:43

Yep most models have it saying hi to NZ. But still there is a very slight chance we might get something but its a chance that isnt even worth giving a second thought really. Maybe March is our TC month but with this seasons record im not holding my breath
Posted by: Flowin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 11/02/2018 20:33

Current forecasts not favouring Australia albeit with low but not impossible chance.
Canadian CMC model appears to deviate.. As it did in TC Debbie
A few days to watch yet though.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/..._model_late.png
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 11/02/2018 21:43

It aint hitting qld
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 11/02/2018 22:00

I have to agree with Trav...this TC is not.for us.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 11/02/2018 23:10

Its gone
Not even looking at models for that.....silly thing
Posted by: Homer

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 11/02/2018 23:10

Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
It aint hitting qld


Agreed. Not even close.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 12/02/2018 12:24

I predict we will get a cyclone cross the coast anytime between now and when Australia drifts outside the TC risk zone lol bet I get it right.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 12/02/2018 21:45

Originally Posted By: rainthisway
I predict we will get a cyclone cross the coast anytime between now and when Australia drifts outside the TC risk zone lol bet I get it right.


I had to read that several times. I kept interpreting as to get a coast crossing, we the need the coast to move into the path of a cyclone. LoL
Posted by: Flowin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 12/02/2018 21:54

Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
It aint hitting qld


Agreed. Not even close.


Based on what models overwhelming say now and last 2-3 days on balance of probabilities I would agree Gita and Qld are an unlikely engagement.
But I am not so bullish in confidence of model predictions 6 days beyond forecast time zero. It took models a while to turn TC Debbie south from the original forecast path that was to Northern Territory 👀. One of the first models to turn Debbie south was CMC. This is what is also out there yet to be proved right or wrong https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09P_geps_00z.png
Don't take that as a forecast, it is cherry picked to show a point... Let's see where she goes, and noting that forecast intensity is somewhat broad http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/...ensity_late.png
Posted by: Flowin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 12/02/2018 22:17

And model HWRF....says...

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/...ctStorm=GITA09P
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 12/02/2018 23:10

Originally Posted By: Flowin


I must admit, I was impressed with HWRF for TC Debbie and Hurricane Irma. The Model performed well very early in the piece I thought, and didn't disappoint as the systems approached and crossed the coast.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 12/02/2018 23:18

The HWRF is quite well-known for its low track errors for TC's compared to many other models so it's one of the better ones to watch.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 13/02/2018 00:05

Thanks Ken your info on models (and weather!) is a great value to us
HWRF has brought the forecast track for Gita further north closer to New Caledonia over the last 36 hours or so. Be interesting to watch further developments and forecasts, and other models as well
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 13/02/2018 05:48

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The HWRF is quite well-known for its low track errors for TC's compared to many other models so it's one of the better ones to watch.


Thanks for the info Ken. Have been watching Hurricane Hunters (NOAA) on Netflix. The deep history and work they're tasked with sure does make one reflect on the work going on in the background by the official monitoring and agencies, when mother nature is or about to unleash her wrath. Pretty cool show.
Posted by: NotsohopefulPete

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 13/02/2018 06:13

It would be amazing if the almost impossible(hitting the coast in a weakened state of course) happened, but would it give rain though to areas that desperately need it?
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 13/02/2018 14:25

Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
I predict we will get a cyclone cross the coast anytime between now and when Australia drifts outside the TC risk zone lol bet I get it right.


I had to read that several times. I kept interpreting as to get a coast crossing, we the need the coast to move into the path of a cyclone. LoL


Well that would work too lol

This heat is beyond ridiculous. 36c atm. If that cyclone follows the forecast track, that is worse...so close yet so far.
Posted by: pabloako

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/02/2018 09:41

Here is a 24 hour timelasse of satellite images covering the Gita area. New Zealand may be in for a bumpy ride if the models are correct.
http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-CentralPacific.aspx

(Updates every 30 minutes)
Posted by: Flowin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/02/2018 23:21

I like that view and imagery.of Gita
World thread now home for Gita discussion ?
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/02/2018 05:45

Originally Posted By: Flowin
I like that view and imagery.of Gita
World thread now home for Gita discussion ?


I like that idea. Imagine what one could potentially learn from the systems which develop in other jurisdictions - egL Hurrican Irma.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/02/2018 08:13

Ext GFS has a depression hanging around central C.S. & then drifting close to SEQ at end of month. One to watch? Havnt looked at other models.
Posted by: Steamy

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/02/2018 15:35

On the local rags inter-web page ..........more bold forecasting

A TROPICAL cyclone set to impact Queensland will develop in the Coral Sea in the next fortnight, according to one long-range weather forecaster.

But official Bureau of Meteorology observers are yet to issue any predictions or warnings.

Hayden Walker from Walker's Weather is predicting the cyclone will begin developing late February and cross the coast between North and Central Queensland in early March.
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/02/2018 18:26

Originally Posted By: Steamy
On the local rags inter-web page ..........more bold forecasting

A TROPICAL cyclone set to impact Queensland will develop in the Coral Sea in the next fortnight, according to one long-range weather forecaster.

But official Bureau of Meteorology observers are yet to issue any predictions or warnings.

Hayden Walker from Walker's Weather is predicting the cyclone will begin developing late February and cross the coast between North and Central Queensland in early March.



This is just my thoughts, but I think some need to accept that there would be qualified Meteorologists / Mathematicians / Statisticians / etc who could have worked for the BOM at some point, possibly as Consultants, and through the association possess the credentials to do this type of work. The reality is that the skillsets appear complimentary by nature and thus, people could learn by this.

Occasionally, Long Range Weather Forecasters have been in the media spotlight re predictions (generally in terms of seasonality, etc). Simply suggesting that it's not new - refer to website.

Personally I think there's bigger challenges with the sensationalism attached to way that media in the main, represent these systems. Thankfully though, I think they're getting a little bit better in providing information other than 'the bold statement', 'shock headlines' or not disclosing information specific to forecasts.

Just thinking that the narrative needs to be considerate of those whom have specialised in this space, have put the hard work into attaining the necessary credentials, as opposed to simply putting them in a box and labelling them as 'x'. I think we're better than that.

This is just a general statement re media comments, as opposed to singling our the specific comment included as the reference.

Posted by: amphetamarine

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/02/2018 18:32

My orchid is pretty good at predicting rain events 2/3 days out. usually flowers before we get some decent rain. Nothing at the moment. frown
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/02/2018 18:56

Originally Posted By: amphetamarine
My orchid is pretty good at predicting rain events 2/3 days out. usually flowers before we get some decent rain. Nothing at the moment. frown


smile
Posted by: WANDJINA G'vale

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/02/2018 21:45

He sets out a timeframe, lets see how that goes, 2 weeks is nothing in the scheme of things - wont be waiting long to find out if he is onto something or not with his long range work
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/02/2018 22:48

Originally Posted By: Steamy
On the local rags inter-web page ..........more bold forecasting

A TROPICAL cyclone set to impact Queensland will develop in the Coral Sea in the next fortnight, according to one long-range weather forecaster.

But official Bureau of Meteorology observers are yet to issue any predictions or warnings.

Hayden Walker from Walker's Weather is predicting the cyclone will begin developing late February and cross the coast between North and Central Queensland in early March.


He also preducted above average rainfall for townsville from December...we know how that didnt happen. This guy is another moron talking out his rear.
Posted by: Kowree

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/02/2018 11:12

I watched cyclones on WZ and followed the forums at my computer desk in Victoria with avid morbid fascination never thinking I would ever visit, let alone live in an area where cyclones occur.
Half the time I have no idea of what the hell is being spoken of but I'm learning.
But, my question will most likely be thought of as dumb but I am curious. I have been watching Cyclone Gita for the last week (on earth.nullschool.net) moseying around the islands causing grief and now it is descending upon New Caledonia and I am wondering - why will it peter out and hit NZ as a fiercesome storm - why won't it just keep going west as it has done for a while and hit say Rockhampton?
All though, I must admit, it does seem to be doing a slight lefty towards the south as I speak.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/02/2018 12:09

There is generally an upper level trough that reaches up from the tasman sea and this serves to send the majority of systems SE to NZ. Tjey can trave a long way west but generally do it from a mlre northerly section of the western Pacific
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/02/2018 12:17

Originally Posted By: Kowree
I watched cyclones on WZ and followed the forums at my computer desk in Victoria with avid morbid fascination never thinking I would ever visit, let alone live in an area where cyclones occur.
Half the time I have no idea of what the hell is being spoken of but I'm learning.
But, my question will most likely be thought of as dumb but I am curious. I have been watching Cyclone Gita for the last week (on earth.nullschool.net) moseying around the islands causing grief and now it is descending upon New Caledonia and I am wondering - why will it peter out and hit NZ as a fiercesome storm - why won't it just keep going west as it has done for a while and hit say Rockhampton?
All though, I must admit, it does seem to be doing a slight lefty towards the south as I speak.


First things first. Gita is nearing the end of the ridge (red shading) which steered her westward for the past 4-5 days. Remember, the steering around these ridges are anti-clockwise. Had that ridge (red shading) extended further west towards our coast then she would have no doubt continued on her journey towards the QLD coast. But it isn't to be - as you can see, the ridge stops between Oz & NZ, so she will fall along the western edge of this ridge. Second phase will be a big trough (blue shading over TAS / VIC / NSW) which will come in from the west and 'capture' her, which will lead to NZ eventually copping it.



Unfortunately those troughs have been a regular occurrence through that area for the past month or two, and are, imo, a big reason the east coast has been so dry (as they not only modify the steering flow to redirect anything in the Coral Sea SE, but they also drive up dry subtropical air behind them).
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/02/2018 13:14

Ive never worked out where ridging is on charts. How do you know that area of red is where the ridging is?

Nevermind...its not a self done chart its a chart from a site.
Posted by: Kowree

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/02/2018 16:23

Thanks Mega and Brett Guy, much appreciated.
The weather down in Victoria and South Australia was actually quite predictable - it mainly came from the west or sometimes from the north if there were cyclones up the top of WA or most dreaded, the stinking hot northerlies in summer and generally a bushfire to go with it.
But here, we seem to have more influences which makes it interesting.
I'm still going to keep my eye on Gita and see how she pans out. My homework.
Poor NZ, they are copping hidings from these ex's.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/02/2018 18:17

If only the latest gfs long range forecast came true on weatherzone. GoC TL coming inland just at the right place....unlikely but still nice.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 16/02/2018 22:11

can only wish, but the signs are ok that it will at least move SE (at this stage)
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 17/02/2018 05:37

Lets hope it holds but not holding my breath.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 17/02/2018 06:58

gfs already moved the low 200km off the coast on 12z run.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 17/02/2018 10:12

EC/GFS have dropped it by the looks of it.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 17/02/2018 14:56

Yep. Dropped...story of our life. Maybe this will be the first year to have no cyclone in australias area of responsibilty in the CS.

Broomes year to date total is crazy. Over 1300mm. My year to date is around 300mm at the most
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 19/02/2018 15:16

Another gfs tease that will most likely never happen on long range
Posted by: Dan101

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 19/02/2018 23:45

Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Another gfs tease that will most likely never happen on long range


Aaaand gooooone in 06z! lol. Gotta laugh.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/02/2018 11:05

18z has a cat 3 crossing the whitsundays at a fast speed, but its a long, long way out.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/02/2018 11:33

It wont happen. Although the Mjo should arrive next month, hopefully with another monsoon burst that actually eff3cts us.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/02/2018 13:19

GFS deterministic + long range + TC scenarios = almost like flipping a coin.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/02/2018 13:39

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
GFS deterministic + long range + TC scenarios = almost like flipping a coin.


Pretty much like any long range of any kind lol, I will say its gonna happen after it happens...best way to do it lol
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/02/2018 13:44

Multi model ensembles give a better idea of the uncertainty/confidence of scenarios at longer ranges than a single deterministic version of a model thatís notoriously dodgy at longer ranges (e.g. the recent SE QLD twin cyclone impact scenarios from GFS). But GFS is good entertainment value Iíll give it that!
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/02/2018 15:07

GFS loves to tease us this year...its like look cyclone...hahaha took it away...looks heres another....noo just kiddings....takes it away.
Posted by: Dan101

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/02/2018 19:14

Originally Posted By: rainthisway
GFS loves to tease us this year...its like look cyclone...hahaha took it away...looks heres another....noo just kiddings....takes it away.


GFS be like...

Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/02/2018 19:21

LOL
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/02/2018 20:11

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Multi model ensembles give a better idea of the uncertainty/confidence of scenarios at longer ranges than a single deterministic version of a model thatís notoriously dodgy at longer ranges (e.g. the recent SE QLD twin cyclone impact scenarios from GFS). But GFS is good entertainment value Iíll give it that!




Totally agree Ken. Have been quite fanatical in learning about the various Models (to the degree that one can) since TC Larry in 2006. What i've found most beneficial, is monitoring a potential TC formation (long-range) and following subsequent Model runs across a range of Models to observe whether the Models converge or diverge. Heaven knows i'm still learning and a large part of that is found within the contributions of numerous Forum Members over the years.

The multi-model ensemble you shared recently was great to understand the potential track of TC Gita recently. Found it interesting that the JTWC Model didn't vary that much from the earlier runs to the latter. If memory serves me correctly, I think a number of the Models forecast similar tracks relatively early in the piece as well.

Thought it even more interesting that one of the Model runs for 2 seperate Models I think, also forecast crossings around Hervey Bay and Brisbane / Gold Coast areas - liked the comment you made about an article within the 'media' . Model runs adjacent to the specific runs suggested (I thought at least), these runs were outliers if anything. Unless of course, one or more of the Inputs had a significant impact on the broader Model run itself.

Glad to see you still contributing after all these years.

Chrs
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/02/2018 20:27

Thanks Chris, there's been a few times I was on the verge of leaving though lol.

Yeah the map below for Gita shows the usefulness of ensembles in gauging what the spread of possible future tracks is like and uncertainty/confidence. The ensembles in this map were run way back on the 9th Feb just as Gita was named.

The black line is the observed track while the coloured lines are from a range of ensembles (including the ensemble versions of GFS, EC, UK, etc). You can see that while Gita's forecast track trended west for awhile, it's observed track still lay just inside the main spread of scenarios.

In contrast, the standard deterministic version of GFS was going for that now-infamous SE QLD impact for a number of runs:


Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/02/2018 20:42

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Thanks Chris, there's been a few times I was on the verge of leaving though lol.

Yeah the map below for Gita shows the usefulness of ensembles in gauging what the spread of possible future tracks is like and uncertainty/confidence. The ensembles in this map were run way back on the 9th Feb just as Gita was named.

The black line is the observed track while the coloured lines are from a range of ensembles (including the ensemble versions of GFS, EC, UK, etc). You can see that while Gita's forecast track trended west for awhile, it's observed track still lay just inside the main spread of scenarios.

In contrast, the standard deterministic version of GFS was going for that now-infamous SE QLD impact for a number of runs:





I knew there was a reason I did some stats at Uni. smile
Posted by: gazza townsville

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 23/02/2018 11:13

Is this rain off the coast at the moment going to be cooling the water In hand with the lower temps associated with it going to be making it less favorable for the off chance anything does try develop moving forward or as i suspect being so close to the coast or on shore makes it pretty much insignificant
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 23/02/2018 12:22

Wont cool the water enough.
Posted by: WANDJINA G'vale

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 23/02/2018 16:28

I was out off Cairns (not far) last week and the water temp sensor on my craft was showing 31c
Posted by: ifishcq

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 23/02/2018 17:31

http://ocean-grids.csiro.au/nrt-sst
Posted by: scott12

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 23/02/2018 20:03

Originally Posted By: gazza townsville
Is this rain off the coast at the moment going to be cooling the water In hand with the lower temps associated with it going to be making it less favorable for the off chance anything does try develop moving forward or as i suspect being so close to the coast or on shore makes it pretty much insignificant


Water is still 29-30c at the moment at the reefs off Mission beach..while Townsville maybe a degree or so cooler its still plenty warm enough for cyclogenesis ...
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/02/2018 16:02

weak low over the Bowen area today, EC forecasted it. BOM have nothing in their outlook so not expecting much from it. Though EC did have a decent flow
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/02/2018 16:49

Gosh, Mick, has it come to this? Getting excited over an eddy spinning up. It has been a very quiet season, eh? I do remember 2005-2006 being a very quiet one too (bar a short-lived Kate), and then all of a sudden after mid- March we had STCs Larry; Wati; and Monica in relatively quick succession. I feel that the last half of March may be the beginning of something similar.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/02/2018 17:58

yeah it is that bad mate. pretty sad state of affairs.

EC though have this low being pushed northwards Thur into Fri giving Townsville area 100-200mm.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/02/2018 18:51

Looks like there is another(?) circulation ab out 200km ENE of Bowen on the visible sat image.
Posted by: gazza townsville

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/02/2018 20:36

So this little low that seems to have spun up just south of townsville north of bowen. Would that make the rain and small scud storms we are having townsville kind of like little feeder bands i guess i want to call them???
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/02/2018 23:35

Still no significant lows for tc develop on the horizon....either be a late bloomer or first year to have nothing in the CS.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/02/2018 00:55

good shower activity around the low at present off from the Whitsundays, also some half decent convergence over Creal Reef.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/02/2018 11:35

You saying theres a chance of this intensifying?
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/02/2018 13:24

I cant see where he said that
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/02/2018 13:39

The Coral Sea is a joke.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/02/2018 15:54

I can feel your frustration Mega but be careful what you wish for. Nature always seems to come back to equilibrium, all that pent up energy in the CS will need to be released one way or another.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/02/2018 16:02

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
I can feel your frustration Mega but be careful what you wish for. Nature always seems to come back to equilibrium, all that pent up energy in the CS will need to be released one way or another.

It's nice to think so. And we've had very late TC activity before. But logic also dictates that persistently warmer than normal sea surface temps don't always end up finishing the season with a big bang. It's no use having warm SST's for ages if there's no suitable triggers (e.g. equatorial Rossby waves, etc etc), sufficiently weak shear, sufficiently deep moisture and instability that line up in just the right way to utilise those warm waters and allow decent TC's to form.
You also need the right synoptic steering to direct any TC's towards the coast (no use if lots of TC's form in the Coral Sea if they're continually getting steered SE towards the graveyard).

Not quite TC-related but so many people were also talking about how the significantly warmer than normal waters off the east coast were bound to cause a much wetter than normal summer. But like many times in the past, it was much drier than normal until recently along large sections because the synoptic patterns weren't cooperating to take advantage of it.

Who knows how this season will end up.
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/02/2018 16:03

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
I can feel your frustration Mega but be careful what you wish for. Nature always seems to come back to equilibrium, all that pent up energy in the CS will need to be released one way or another.


It was kinda reverse psychology. I said the same thing this time last year and Debbie rolled through in March.

All I know is the window of opportunities for TC genesis and westward moving TC's in the Coral Sea seems to be much less than that of other tropical basins in the world. You will basically get maybe 4-5 days worth of deep layer ridging across the Coral Sea followed by 3 weeks of westerlies caused by troughing. Don't know why, and nobody seems to be able to provide any logical explanation to it either.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/02/2018 17:17

Yes, a lot of ducks need to line up but when was the last time we had no cyclones?
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/02/2018 17:29

It's the southern-isolating cross-oscillating vector-factor that's the cause of the uncertainty - not to mention Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. wink
Posted by: Caillin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/02/2018 17:31

lol, I don't think superposition at the subatomic level is going to have any bearing on macro scale weather events smile
Posted by: Popeye

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/02/2018 17:51

Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Gosh, Mick, has it come to this? Getting excited over an eddy spinning up.

I'm getting very excited. Just watching that eddy on the latest EC and seems to slowly make its way inland through QLD and the NT up the Top End and pop off the West Australian coast to give us our ??? 5th or 6th system of the year over here in Broome. Cheers guys. Pack her up, load her with moisture and send her over to the West. smile cheers
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...18022700&fh=192
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/02/2018 18:28

Popeye you really aren't helping! As I said nature likes equilibrium, one day you will get zip and we will get 3000mm. Now go back to your never ending torrential downpours and leave us poor parched devil's alone...
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/02/2018 18:30

Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
I cant see where he said that


I didnt say he did bit I was asking if its possible...worded it wrong
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/02/2018 18:38

Yeah Pee off Popeye LOL, you guys have seen more rain in these two months then townsville has seen in a couple years.
Posted by: Popeye

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/02/2018 19:06

I do feel for you guys. I have missed coming in here and stirring you QLD crew. But I just thought it would be plain mean if I did. So I have let you be. No doubt something will crank eventually. Read the latest BOM trop notes. Something might fire for QLD after NT and WA has had a go first.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/
Posted by: Long Road Home

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/02/2018 19:17

If I was living in N QLD, think I'd much rather this scattered/widespread activity than a TC which would hog all the moisture and give most places less.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/02/2018 19:40

Nice moderate rainfall here now.

Just had a random rouge bolt of lightning knock out the power for few seconds. Had no thunder or anything for a little while then bang out of nowhere.
Posted by: Dan101

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/02/2018 22:27

Originally Posted By: Popeye
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Gosh, Mick, has it come to this? Getting excited over an eddy spinning up.

I'm getting very excited. Just watching that eddy on the latest EC and seems to slowly make its way inland through QLD and the NT up the Top End and pop off the West Australian coast to give us our ??? 5th or 6th system of the year over here in Broome. Cheers guys. Pack her up, load her with moisture and send her over to the West. smile cheers
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...18022700&fh=192


When I go to tropical tidbits to check our latest forecast for weather inactivity, I always use this particular regional view - not because it really shows the Coral Sea and QLD well, but mostly so I can't see how much action WA is getting!

Posted by: Popeye

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/02/2018 22:59

Haha to funny Dan. I think QLD will be getting something before the season is out.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/02/2018 07:30

dont really care where the low goes after this, right now its bring us our best rainfall event in 4 years and has just thrown 120mm into dwindling water supplies. The city council turns off the water pumps from the Burdekin dam today, which has been costing us $37,000 a day. So great news.
Posted by: Dan101

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/02/2018 08:42

Originally Posted By: Mick10
dont really care where the low goes after this, right now its bring us our best rainfall event in 4 years and has just thrown 120mm into dwindling water supplies. The city council turns off the water pumps from the Burdekin dam today, which has been costing us $37,000 a day. So great news.


That is awesome, we can call it Townsville again (instead of Brownsville). You guys have waited long enough for this type of event.

You can send a bit down our way next time smile
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/02/2018 10:02

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Weather Warning
for HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in Herbert and Lower Burdekin and parts of Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders Forecast Districts.

Issued at 8:48 am Wednesday, 28 February 2018.
Low pressure system to produce heavy rain across north Queensland.

Weather Situation: A surface low near Townsville is forecast to deepen during today and Thursday in response to a slow-moving upper trough and associated low. The surface and upper low are forecast to shift west across the Herbert and Lower Burdekin today, and into the Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders during Thursday. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected to accompany the low with its westward movement across north Queensland.
Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, is forecast across coastal and inland parts of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin today and across eastern parts of the Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders overnight and into Thursday.
6 hour rainfall totals of 100mm to 180mm are possible, with isolated falls up to 220mm possible.
Widespread 24 hour rainfall totals between 150mm to 250mm are likely, with isolated falls up to 350mm possible.
Locations which may be affected include Charters Towers, Townsville, Palm Island, Ingham, Ayr, Mingela, Giru, Alva Beach, Einasleigh, Lyndhurst Station, Rollingstone and Gregory Springs.
Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it's flooded, forget it.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 pm AEST Wednesday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Queensland Fire and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/02/2018 10:13

Frame that one and put it on the wall Mick!
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/02/2018 10:55

Tgis k8nd of event was bound to happen eventually. Plus a few models show some lows. So next week or so maybe interesting.i believe the march outlook is gonna get thrown str8 out the window.
Posted by: WANDJINA G'vale

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/02/2018 10:57

Does it head off north west or , which direction?
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/02/2018 12:08

Forecast to move west
Posted by: Island viewer

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/02/2018 17:15

Anybody notice the lows here?
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=148.60,-18.82,2354
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/02/2018 17:18

Yep already been discussed above. The low currently near Townsville extends right up into the upper levels.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/02/2018 17:24

12z EC's suggestion was going for a landphoon-like scenario for the current low near Townsville by the time it drifts across northwest QLD this weekend with the equivalent of Cat 1 winds wrapping halfway around the small but vigorous system:


Posted by: Island viewer

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/02/2018 18:00

95P Invest on Navy/NRL TC Pages
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/02/2018 21:39

Originally Posted By: Island viewer
95P Invest on Navy/NRL TC Pages


Saw that. Very interesting indeed. Wonder what the likelihood would be of historical Lightning data being around. The systems off Cairns and the QLD coast / inland over the past couple of weeks have been insane. Would be interested to learn where this stacks up in terms of storm activity over say the past 30 to 40 years. I doubt it's available, however other data could indicate the prevalence of storm activity over the period as well.

Any genuine thoughts would be appreciated...
Posted by: whynot

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/03/2018 07:38

Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Wonder what the likelihood would be of historical Lightning data being around.


In a previous role, I had access to the lightning strike archive back to 1999. The problem comparing historical data with today's data is that owners of the lightning tracker network have been continually improving the network (accuracy of the strike and detection rates). If one could compare two theoretical "identical" storms, say 1999 verses 2018, the raw data from the 2018 thunderstorm would show significantly "more" lightning; simply because the 2018 lightning tracker network has better detection rates. The other non-trivial issue when analysing lightning data is processing the millions and millions of records. It is usually beyond desktop computers and one needs access to grunty servers or cloud infrastructure.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/03/2018 10:07

Access is showing a interesting scenario at end of 10 day run...if that eventuates..
Posted by: Jezza

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/03/2018 14:11

[img]http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=accessg&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=240&focus=mh[/img]

10 day outlook on GFS looking pretty promising for some cyclonic activity in FNQ. Will be interesting to see if, how and where it unfolds!
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/03/2018 14:19

Jezza thats BOMs access model. Deffo something to watch.
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/03/2018 16:57

Originally Posted By: whynot
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Wonder what the likelihood would be of historical Lightning data being around.


In a previous role, I had access to the lightning strike archive back to 1999. The problem comparing historical data with today's data is that owners of the lightning tracker network have been continually improving the network (accuracy of the strike and detection rates). If one could compare two theoretical "identical" storms, say 1999 verses 2018, the raw data from the 2018 thunderstorm would show significantly "more" lightning; simply because the 2018 lightning tracker network has better detection rates. The other non-trivial issue when analysing lightning data is processing the millions and millions of records. It is usually beyond desktop computers and one needs access to grunty servers or cloud infrastructure.



Thanks for the reply. I work with data on a full-time basis and I must admit, I thought it would be a long shot. Have seen some figures of late and I think i've seen numbers of 100K+ strikes in a single night. Could be wrong, but that's nuts hey.

Thanks for the info. Anything which assists to develop my knowledge and understanding is always appreciated.
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/03/2018 17:07

What's everyone's thoughts on this piece. Interested from a critical thinking perspective of both the positive and negative points than anything.

Would be great if we could avoid talking about the media and all that stuff that comes with that. Flood and rain damage is more often than overlooked when Tropical Cyclones are spoken of. Keen to learn what people are thinking.

Thx

https://higginsstormchasing.com/major-record-flood-forecast-western-queensland/
Posted by: Sillybanter

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/03/2018 17:42

Well we know from history this type of article is very polarising. I personally don't mind it as long as we take everything with a grain of salt. As the models suggest at this time this is the predicted rainfall amounts but as we all know exact locations and amounts are going to vary a lot from what it says now. Believe me when I say most people in Western Qld are praying that this one comes off and they will deal with whatever hardships it brings with it. Because thats what they have always done in the past and will continue to do in the future. However they will also not be surprised to see it drift across the gulf and head for W.A. They have had enough setbacks not to believe any forecast until they are emptying the rain gauges.
Posted by: SBT

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/03/2018 18:13

Just making people aware of the possible damage a little Cat 1 could do in the next couple of weeks re flooding and structure damage. If we cop one it could be pretty devastating as the ground is well saturated (actually over saturated) at the moment and it won't take much for a lot of trees to come down with the water logged soils. Run off will cause local flooding, nothing new there. Rail line infrastructure will be damaged, as will roads, power water. Again nothing new there but there are hundreds of new families who have moved to Townsville since the last good big blow we had (Yasi) and the lessons learnt then may need to be relearned by some new comers.
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/03/2018 19:04

Originally Posted By: SBT
Just making people aware of the possible damage a little Cat 1 could do in the next couple of weeks re flooding and structure damage. If we cop one it could be pretty devastating as the ground is well saturated (actually over saturated) at the moment and it won't take much for a lot of trees to come down with the water logged soils. Run off will cause local flooding, nothing new there. Rail line infrastructure will be damaged, as will roads, power water. Again nothing new there but there are hundreds of new families who have moved to Townsville since the last good big blow we had (Yasi) and the lessons learnt then may need to be relearned by some new comers.



Thanks for sharing. Was thinking something quite similar. There's been good a lot of storm activity of late across the state, and one must wonder how much water is travelling toward the natural water courses at the moment, how hydrated the soil (and its many layers is), and what this means in terms of the potentially impacted areas ability to channel water given the existing volume and unknown volume to come.

It's a nice system that's for sure.

Would be interesting to hear what Ken Kato has to say.
Posted by: mysteriousbrad

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/03/2018 21:37

Access continuing with the same low at the end of the 10 day run tonight...
Posted by: zuldjan

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/03/2018 21:49

CMC going for something coming in from the coral sea around similar time, instead of access having it from the GOC
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/03/2018 23:56

Access has it from the CS now as well as a GoC storm...
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/03/2018 10:49

Yes, AccessG still has that interesting feature slowly progressing 'home' .
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/03/2018 11:43

Only access and CMC atm.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/03/2018 12:03

Thats something for a few runs at least.
Be interesting to watch what happens. C.S. is well warm enough.
Posted by: ol mate

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/03/2018 12:47

Access throwing out a big system in the CS next Saturday. How reliable has this model been?
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/03/2018 12:48

So will the high progged on the BOM 4 day chart push the Coral Sea low away to the SE like the rest of them?
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/03/2018 13:31

All depends if there is a big ridge involved or a massive trough. I'd be a little happier if GFS be keen as well. It did well with Yasi, I think.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/03/2018 15:42

Just had a look at GFS, how can they be so wildly different? Unless I am looking at the wrong chart GFS has no hint of a low during the same timeframe.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/03/2018 16:00

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
All depends if there is a big ridge involved or a massive trough. I'd be a little happier if GFS be keen as well. It did well with Yasi, I think.


It did do well with Yasi however this year its been twrrible with its long range. Have to wait a few days and see if any others pick it up or if ACCESS drops it.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/03/2018 16:15

Mangrovejack: Yeah I agree, waterlogged soil is always one of the things to consider when it comes to how easily certain types of trees topple over in strong winds.

1st image below is the forecast soil moisture change from the GFS over the next several days.

2nd image is the percentage of forecast members in the EC ensemble trying to spin up a TC between 7 and 9 days from now (pretty sure the "Tropical Storm" title uses the same categorisation of tropical system as the ECMWF themselves do
i.e. tropical storm = equivalent of Cat 1 TC in the Australian region):




Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/03/2018 16:25

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Mangrovejack: Yeah I agree, waterlogged soil is always one of the things to consider when it comes to how easily certain types of trees topple over in strong winds.

1st image below is the forecast soil moisture change from the GFS over the next several days.

2nd image is the percentage of forecast members in the EC ensemble trying to spin up a TC between 7 and 9 days from now (pretty sure the "Tropical Storm" title uses the same categorisation of tropical system as the ECMWF themselves do
i.e. tropical storm = equivalent of Cat 1 TC in the Australian region):






Do you trust EC more then the other Models? Because i was reading somewhere, bloody wish I remembered the link, that overseas models are less reliable in Australia, due to there resolution over australia was lower then over there home ground as such. However your second pic has a resolution of 5km which is pretty awesome. So in your honest opinion which model do you believe is the most accurate more times than not.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/03/2018 16:27

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
So will the high progged on the BOM 4 day chart push the Coral Sea low away to the SE like the rest of them?


Considering the CS low on access is beyond 4 days. You cant use the 4 day charts to see which directioon it will shift.
Posted by: marakai

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/03/2018 16:36

Null School /gfs/ncep have that low out west up in the GoC in 5-6 days time.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/03/2018 16:54

Also consider steering flow through a bigger depth of the atmosphere, not just the surface if a strong system does end up developing somewhere.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/03/2018 16:57

Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Mangrovejack: Yeah I agree, waterlogged soil is always one of the things to consider when it comes to how easily certain types of trees topple over in strong winds.

1st image below is the forecast soil moisture change from the GFS over the next several days.

2nd image is the percentage of forecast members in the EC ensemble trying to spin up a TC between 7 and 9 days from now (pretty sure the "Tropical Storm" title uses the same categorisation of tropical system as the ECMWF themselves do
i.e. tropical storm = equivalent of Cat 1 TC in the Australian region):






Do you trust EC more then the other Models? Because i was reading somewhere, bloody wish I remembered the link, that overseas models are less reliable in Australia, due to there resolution over australia was lower then over there home ground as such. However your second pic has a resolution of 5km which is pretty awesome. So in your honest opinion which model do you believe is the most accurate more times than not.


Global models such as EC, GFS, etc have the same resolution around the world no matter what region.

There are various other models such as ACCESS and JMA just to name a couple which have different versions that focus on their home regional and local domains and these have finer horizontal resolutions than their own global version e.g. ACCESS-G covers the globe, ACCESS-R focuses on the Australian region and has a finer resolution, and ACCESS-C which covers capital city domains has an even finer resolution.

It's actually a popular myth that just because EC is a global overseas model that its resolution isn't as good as a home grown model such as ACCESS-R
e.g. EC's horizontal resolution of around 9km is actually better than that of ACCESS-R's ~12km (the 5km marked on the map is just referring to the map's resolution rather than the model itself).

It's also a popular myth that a global model is always less accurate than a home grown model. It depends on the model, how good its physics package is, and the way it assimilates observation data from many different sources. Resolution is very important but it's physics package and the way it assimilates obs data is also crucial.

As far as accuracy goes, a middle-of-the-ground multimodel consensus approach (with a slight bias towards the historically more accurate models) is more accurate (on average) than relying on any single model on its own.... even if it's EC. This is backed up by both objective skill stats as well as subjective assessments.

On average, EC has consistently been the most accurate model for decades for just about every weather variable at most levels of the atmosphere but that doesn't mean it beats the other models every time.
The best approach is to look at all of them, then use knowledge of TC principles and experience of what's happened in the past re forecasts vs observed to come up with the most likely scenario.
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/03/2018 18:27

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Mangrovejack: Yeah I agree, waterlogged soil is always one of the things to consider when it comes to how easily certain types of trees topple over in strong winds.

1st image below is the forecast soil moisture change from the GFS over the next several days.

2nd image is the percentage of forecast members in the EC ensemble trying to spin up a TC between 7 and 9 days from now (pretty sure the "Tropical Storm" title uses the same categorisation of tropical system as the ECMWF themselves do
i.e. tropical storm = equivalent of Cat 1 TC in the Australian region):






Do you trust EC more then the other Models? Because i was reading somewhere, bloody wish I remembered the link, that overseas models are less reliable in Australia, due to there resolution over australia was lower then over there home ground as such. However your second pic has a resolution of 5km which is pretty awesome. So in your honest opinion which model do you believe is the most accurate more times than not.


Global models such as EC, GFS, etc have the same resolution around the world no matter what region.

There are various other models such as ACCESS and JMA just to name a couple which have different versions that focus on their home regional and local domains and these have finer horizontal resolutions than their own global version e.g. ACCESS-G covers the globe, ACCESS-R focuses on the Australian region and has a finer resolution, and ACCESS-C which covers capital city domains has an even finer resolution.

It's actually a popular myth that just because EC is a global overseas model that its resolution isn't as good as a home grown model such as ACCESS-R
e.g. EC's horizontal resolution of around 9km is actually better than that of ACCESS-R's ~12km (the 5km marked on the map is just referring to the map's resolution rather than the model itself).

It's also a popular myth that a global model is always less accurate than a home grown model. It depends on the model, how good its physics package is, and the way it assimilates observation data from many different sources. Resolution is very important but it's physics package and the way it assimilates obs data is also crucial.

As far as accuracy goes, a middle-of-the-ground multimodel consensus approach (with a slight bias towards the historically more accurate models) is more accurate (on average) than relying on any single model on its own.... even if it's EC. This is backed up by both objective skill stats as well as subjective assessments.

On average, EC has consistently been the most accurate model for decades for just about every weather variable at most levels of the atmosphere but that doesn't mean it beats the other models every time.
The best approach is to look at all of them, then use knowledge of TC principles and experience of what's happened in the past re forecasts vs observed to come up with the most likely scenario.



Thanks for the insights Ken. It sure is interesting watching the individual Models at the moment and I must agree, relying on one specific Model is not recommended. Grateful for the Charts you shared. I think we're about to enter quite an interesting little period with the MJO moving into our region in the next 2 or so weeks (approx). Wind Shear has been quite favourable of late and one would think with the Summer / Autumn change upon us, the cooler Antartic airflow may see the High pressure systems potentially pushing further up the Australian continent and with that, a more northerly push in SSTs and compressed +28 Deg C body of water through to the Equator.

Just taking a punt. Feel free to add your thoughts as I think we're all here to learn.


Thanks Ken.
Posted by: scott12

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/03/2018 19:23

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

The best approach is to look at all of them, then use knowledge of TC principles and experience of what's happened in the past re forecasts vs observed to come up with the most likely scenario.


Ken..That all sounds like what we know as an "Educated guess" really...

How often do we get a scenario where we can predict that a week out Cyclone Yasi is going to smash into Nth Queensland but there is so much uncertainty over most every other situation ..with so many people , resources and technology why is it so hard to predict whats going to happen a week away..why do we still have to make those guesses..?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/03/2018 20:47

Originally Posted By: scott12
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

The best approach is to look at all of them, then use knowledge of TC principles and experience of what's happened in the past re forecasts vs observed to come up with the most likely scenario.


Ken..That all sounds like what we know as an "Educated guess" really...

How often do we get a scenario where we can predict that a week out Cyclone Yasi is going to smash into Nth Queensland but there is so much uncertainty over most every other situation ..with so many people , resources and technology why is it so hard to predict whats going to happen a week away..why do we still have to make those guesses..?


Scott, "educated guess" has the connotation that every setup is virtually the same as using a dartboard when in reality, it's not.

It depends on the influences on a system's intensity and steering at the time. Many setups have high uncertainty while others low uncertainty. Yasi was a textbook example of the latter but there's also been many others where once the influences on a potential or existing TC become more clear-cut, its track and intensity have low uncertainty. You only need to look at many of the TC's that are about to get captured by an approaching upper trough to see how tight the consensus about its track becomes.
As another example of how a TC followed the general consensus of ensembles way out to 10 days, see the graphic below which I posted earlier in this thread - it's for Gita and the coloured tracks are all the forecast scenarios while the black track is what actually happened. The models were run way back on the 9th Feb only a short time after Gita was born. Considering the models had to forecast out to 10 days and the fact that it also had to forecast Gita's complete 180 followed by another curve towards NZ, I wouldn't call that an educated guess.
There's countless other similar cases as well but there's also a number of cases where the forecast scenarios were going everywhere.

Also, my previous post said nothing about how far ahead we're looking into the future. Of course, most setups are going to have high uncertainty beyond several days lead time. My post was talking in general, including the forecasting of TC's out to only a few days. Generally speaking, the closer you get to the forecast time period, the less of an "educated guess" it becomes.

But there's some setups where if both single and multi model ensembles are in good agreement that a system will form and intensity in a particular area at a forecast lead time of several days, it often does eventuate in reality.

P.S. as for this potential upcoming system currently being discussed in here, whenever various models are trying to spin up something in the Gulf or western Coral Sea more than a few days in advance but there's disagreement on the position, I like to interpret it as a "some kind of tropical disturbance signal that could either eventuate in the Gulf or Coral Sea". Given the proximity of the Gulf to the northwest Coral Sea, it only takes a slight change in the setup for a potential system to form in the Gulf instead of the western Coral Sea, or vice versa, or even both.
It's the nature of the beast in the tropics.


Posted by: tsunami

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/03/2018 21:13

Thanks ken
Very informative
Posted by: gawain

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 02/03/2018 22:55

Thank you Ken
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 03/03/2018 02:56

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: scott12
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

The best approach is to look at all of them, then use knowledge of TC principles and experience of what's happened in the past re forecasts vs observed to come up with the most likely scenario.


Ken..That all sounds like what we know as an "Educated guess" really...

How often do we get a scenario where we can predict that a week out Cyclone Yasi is going to smash into Nth Queensland but there is so much uncertainty over most every other situation ..with so many people , resources and technology why is it so hard to predict whats going to happen a week away..why do we still have to make those guesses..?


Scott, "educated guess" has the connotation that every setup is virtually the same as using a dartboard when in reality, it's not.

It depends on the influences on a system's intensity and steering at the time. Many setups have high uncertainty while others low uncertainty. Yasi was a textbook example of the latter but there's also been many others where once the influences on a potential or existing TC become more clear-cut, its track and intensity have low uncertainty. You only need to look at many of the TC's that are about to get captured by an approaching upper trough to see how tight the consensus about its track becomes.
As another example of how a TC followed the general consensus of ensembles way out to 10 days, see the graphic below which I posted earlier in this thread - it's for Gita and the coloured tracks are all the forecast scenarios while the black track is what actually happened. The models were run way back on the 9th Feb only a short time after Gita was born. Considering the models had to forecast out to 10 days and the fact that it also had to forecast Gita's complete 180 followed by another curve towards NZ, I wouldn't call that an educated guess.
There's countless other similar cases as well but there's also a number of cases where the forecast scenarios were going everywhere.

Also, my previous post said nothing about how far ahead we're looking into the future. Of course, most setups are going to have high uncertainty beyond several days lead time. My post was talking in general, including the forecasting of TC's out to only a few days. Generally speaking, the closer you get to the forecast time period, the less of an "educated guess" it becomes.

But there's some setups where if both single and multi model ensembles are in good agreement that a system will form and intensity in a particular area at a forecast lead time of several days, it often does eventuate in reality.

P.S. as for this potential upcoming system currently being discussed in here, whenever various models are trying to spin up something in the Gulf or western Coral Sea more than a few days in advance but there's disagreement on the position, I like to interpret it as a "some kind of tropical disturbance signal that could either eventuate in the Gulf or Coral Sea". Given the proximity of the Gulf to the northwest Coral Sea, it only takes a slight change in the setup for a potential system to form in the Gulf instead of the western Coral Sea, or vice versa, or even both.
It's the nature of the beast in the tropics.






Well said Ken. Probabilistic Modelling at its best.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 03/03/2018 04:49

Thanks Ken...I am glad you cleared that up for me. Much appreciated.
Posted by: scott12

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 03/03/2018 13:33

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I like to interpret it as a "some kind of tropical disturbance signal that could either eventuate in the Gulf or Coral Sea". Given the proximity of the Gulf to the northwest Coral Sea, it only takes a slight change in the setup for a potential system to form in the Gulf instead of the western Coral Sea, or vice versa, or even both.
It's the nature of the beast in the tropics.



Thanks Ken for the explanation..

In regard to your above quote..is the difficulty in predicting where or if a system spins up along the northern flank of the country ,because ,if all the elements are present for cyclogenisis (is this what you called your "tropical disturbance signal"..?..)then its possible for a cyclone or cyclones to literally form anywhere along that low pressure trough line or monsoon trough where those conditions or "signal" exist...or is that too simplistic..?..
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 03/03/2018 21:54

Access is really wanting this GoC or CS low.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 03/03/2018 23:23

gfs and ec push west into the NT
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 09:37

Access has got a coast hugger whereas Ec now has a stationary low over arnham land.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 09:41

Also water vapour shows a low in cs but satelite clouds doesnt show it
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 10:17

Latest GFS has a TC hitting the Gladstone area on the 15th.
Posted by: Rossby

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 11:07

Just a little food for thoughts a west tracker with a building, in ridge.

Posted by: mysteriousbrad

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 11:57

That would be rather nasty for Capricorn coast area!
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 13:12

We need this low to effect us so ross dam can hit 100. Then everyone will be happy.
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 14:26

Access and GFS both going for good CS systems around the same time. SSTs are heating nicely along the east coast as well.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 14:28

Originally Posted By: scott12
Thanks Ken for the explanation..

In regard to your above quote..is the difficulty in predicting where or if a system spins up along the northern flank of the country ,because ,if all the elements are present for cyclogenisis (is this what you called your "tropical disturbance signal"..?..)then its possible for a cyclone or cyclones to literally form anywhere along that low pressure trough line or monsoon trough where those conditions or "signal" exist...or is that too simplistic..?..


Yep you nailed it scott.
Whenever there's a belt of general cyclonic vorticity stretched out across a monsoon trough, I find that a low or multiple embedded lows can form anywhere along that trough and they could become a TC anywhere along that trough (but only as long as other factors such as favourably low shear, etc cooperate).
An example I often notice is when a monsoon trough lies across northern waters with the "eastern end" of it lying over the western Coral Sea. Some (but not all) of the models might try to spin up a TC in the Gulf but on occasion, a TC ends up forming on the eastern end of the monsoon trough instead (where it doesn't have to "compete" with the vorticity surrounding other potential systems) with the system in the Gulf remaining a low.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 15:38

Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Latest GFS has a TC hitting the Gladstone area on the 15th.


CMC is showing evolution of the same area around the Solomons and running a low the same direction as GFS ,just a day or so later and weaker. Grain of salt stuff. Simply too far away.

Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 17:19

Should start guessing if we do get a TC, where will it hit if anywhere.

Water vapour loop still showing circulation NE of townsville, infrared satelite is showing it too...maybe something trying to organise?
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 17:31

So there is actually some model agreement already about this low/TC forming at the same time period. Beyond that who knows.

NAVGEM and EC - Weak area of low pressure to the NW (EC) and NE Coral Sea (NAVGEM)

CMC - Weak low moving south through the Coral Sea adjacent to coast

Access - Strong cyclone moving south through Coral Sea adjacent to coast

GFS - My personal favourite. Mid-Cat strength cyclone swings into CQ and hugs the coast before exiting SEQ as a Cat 1.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 17:33

I'm assuming many people realise this but the Gulf system that intensifies in some of the models is the same low that's currently over inland northwest QLD (which then eventually drifts out over Gulf waters for those scenarios).
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 17:35

The GFS ensemble members are all over the shop, as to be expected so far out - some move it faster, some slower, some into the gulf, some down the coast, and others I'd imagine that have nothing at all.

Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 17:38

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I'm assuming many people realise this but the Gulf system that intensifies in some of the models is the same low that's currently over inland northwest QLD (which then eventually drifts out over Gulf waters for those scenarios).


Wow that would be incredible.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 17:54

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I'm assuming many people realise this but the Gulf system that intensifies in some of the models is the same low that's currently over inland northwest QLD (which then eventually drifts out over Gulf waters for those scenarios).


I thought that was the case. Even though BOM are expecting it to weaken. Does anyone know how they come up with for3casts...do they use one model or a combination of all of them.
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 17:59

Well the difference is huge when you look at the 500mb heights between EC & GFS. GFS has complete ridging through the CS which sends this bugger straight into the coast whereas EC has yet another upper trough poking up into QLD and the CS, which unless it retrogrades would keep anything off the coast and probably weaker due to higher VWS from the trough.
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 18:42

Originally Posted By: Mega
The GFS ensemble members are all over the shop, as to be expected so far out - some move it faster, some slower, some into the gulf, some down the coast, and others I'd imagine that have nothing at all.



Hey Mega. That's a really neat Chart. Question: what do the numbers within the Redish section east of Cairns refer too ? Are they Wind Speed perhaps ? Interested in understanding the Blue number (12) slightly north of Cairns. I'm assuming the Normalised Spread refer to Standard Deviation perhaps.

Just trying to wrap my head about the Chart.

Thanks.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 18:46

Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Does anyone know how they come up with for3casts...do they use one model or a combination of all of them.

For forecasting TC formation over the water, all the leading models are looked at together with knowledge of all the principles of TC formation (e.g. shear, sea surface temps, triggers, synoptics, etc).

Once a low becomes a designated system, a sophisticated piece of software is used which allows you to include a combination of up to several models of your choosing - it then calculates a consensus track of all the models you chose. The grey cone of uncertainty surrounding that track is based on a certain proportion of past forecast track errors plus the uncertainty in the analysis position. Manual adjustments can be made by the forecaster as necessary.
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 19:10

Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Mega
The GFS ensemble members are all over the shop, as to be expected so far out - some move it faster, some slower, some into the gulf, some down the coast, and others I'd imagine that have nothing at all.



Hey Mega. That's a really neat Chart. Question: what do the numbers within the Redish section east of Cairns refer too ? Are they Wind Speed perhaps ? Interested in understanding the Blue number (12) slightly north of Cairns. I'm assuming the Normalised Spread refer to Standard Deviation perhaps.

Just trying to wrap my head about the Chart.

Thanks.


The numbers you see inside each orange shading correlates to an individual ensemble member, where surface pressure is used (so extreme orange shading = extremely low pressure / cyclone, blue shading = high pressure). So say you see those numbers tightly clustered right over or near each other, that means there is good agreement over that particular area between the ensembles. In the above chart, there really isn't - you can see a couple at that timeframe want a low/TC off Gladstone, one or two have held it off the coast of Cairns, and some even drift it into the gulf, which you can also see really clearly if you loop the chart on https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...8030400&fh=300. The rogue '12' you see might just be an outlier that wants higher than normal pressures from one particular ensemble member? I'm not too sure to be honest, someone else may be able to answer that.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 19:28

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Does anyone know how they come up with for3casts...do they use one model or a combination of all of them.

For forecasting TC formation over the water, all the leading models are looked at together with knowledge of all the principles of TC formation (e.g. shear, sea surface temps, triggers, synoptics, etc).


Once a low becomes a designated system, a sophisticated piece of software is used which allows you to include a combination of up to several models of your choosing - it then calculates a consensus track of all the models you chose. The grey cone of uncertainty surrounding that track is based on a certain proportion of past forecast track errors plus the uncertainty in the analysis position. Manual adjustments can be made by the forecaster as necessary.


Thank you Ken. Your information is appreciated as usual.
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 20:13

Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Mega
The GFS ensemble members are all over the shop, as to be expected so far out - some move it faster, some slower, some into the gulf, some down the coast, and others I'd imagine that have nothing at all.



Hey Mega. That's a really neat Chart. Question: what do the numbers within the Redish section east of Cairns refer too ? Are they Wind Speed perhaps ? Interested in understanding the Blue number (12) slightly north of Cairns. I'm assuming the Normalised Spread refer to Standard Deviation perhaps.

Just trying to wrap my head about the Chart.

Thanks.


The numbers you see inside each orange shading correlates to an individual ensemble member, where surface pressure is used (so extreme orange shading = extremely low pressure / cyclone, blue shading = high pressure). So say you see those numbers tightly clustered right over or near each other, that means there is good agreement over that particular area between the ensembles. In the above chart, there really isn't - you can see a couple at that timeframe want a low/TC off Gladstone, one or two have held it off the coast of Cairns, and some even drift it into the gulf, which you can also see really clearly if you loop the chart on https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...8030400&fh=300. The rogue '12' you see might just be an outlier that wants higher than normal pressures from one particular ensemble member? I'm not too sure to be honest, someone else may be able to answer that.




Ahhhh. Got it. Great explanation Mega.
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 20:33

Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Mega
The GFS ensemble members are all over the shop, as to be expected so far out - some move it faster, some slower, some into the gulf, some down the coast, and others I'd imagine that have nothing at all.



Hey Mega. That's a really neat Chart. Question: what do the numbers within the Redish section east of Cairns refer too ? Are they Wind Speed perhaps ? Interested in understanding the Blue number (12) slightly north of Cairns. I'm assuming the Normalised Spread refer to Standard Deviation perhaps.

Just trying to wrap my head about the Chart.

Thanks.


The numbers you see inside each orange shading correlates to an individual ensemble member, where surface pressure is used (so extreme orange shading = extremely low pressure / cyclone, blue shading = high pressure). So say you see those numbers tightly clustered right over or near each other, that means there is good agreement over that particular area between the ensembles. In the above chart, there really isn't - you can see a couple at that timeframe want a low/TC off Gladstone, one or two have held it off the coast of Cairns, and some even drift it into the gulf, which you can also see really clearly if you loop the chart on https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...8030400&fh=300. The rogue '12' you see might just be an outlier that wants higher than normal pressures from one particular ensemble member? I'm not too sure to be honest, someone else may be able to answer that.




Ahhhh. Got it. Great explanation Mega.


Hmmm. Quite interesting when you look for specific numbers as you suggest. So if I understand it correctly, if we have multiples of the same number in close proximity, it's suggestive of higher confidence in the Ensemble and the forecast position at that particular point in time.
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 20:56



Hey Mega. That's a really neat Chart. Question: what do the numbers within the Redish section east of Cairns refer too ? Are they Wind Speed perhaps ? Interested in understanding the Blue number (12) slightly north of Cairns. I'm assuming the Normalised Spread refer to Standard Deviation perhaps.

Just trying to wrap my head about the Chart.

Thanks. [/quote]

The numbers you see inside each orange shading correlates to an individual ensemble member, where surface pressure is used (so extreme orange shading = extremely low pressure / cyclone, blue shading = high pressure). So say you see those numbers tightly clustered right over or near each other, that means there is good agreement over that particular area between the ensembles. In the above chart, there really isn't - you can see a couple at that timeframe want a low/TC off Gladstone, one or two have held it off the coast of Cairns, and some even drift it into the gulf, which you can also see really clearly if you loop the chart on https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...8030400&fh=300. The rogue '12' you see might just be an outlier that wants higher than normal pressures from one particular ensemble member? I'm not too sure to be honest, someone else may be able to answer that.[/quote]



Ahhhh. Got it. Great explanation Mega. [/quote]

Hmmm. Quite interesting when you look for specific numbers as you suggest. So if I understand it correctly, if we have multiples of the same number in close proximity, it's suggestive of higher confidence in the Ensemble and the forecast position at that particular point in time. [/quote]

That's cool. Had a look at the system over on the Indian Ocean toward Africa (102 hours) and it makes sense. Thanks for sharing.
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 21:15

I didn't really make it clear in my above post - but the numbers represent the pressure that particular ensemble is is showing at that time. So in that chart, two ensembles show a 974hpa TC off Gladstone, (74), two 971's off Cairns, (71), O3s and 04s (1003hpa, 1004hpa) across the top end etc. If there were a heap of, say 971's (71s) clustered together then that'd mean good agreement between ensembles that a strong TC is in that area in that point in time.

I really like to look at ensemble spread like this and not just single model runs because it gives a better idea of the potential factors that could come into play at that particular time, but that's just me.
Posted by: bundybear

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 21:28

Originally Posted By: Mega
I didn't really make it clear in my above post - but the numbers represent the pressure that particular ensemble is is showing at that time. So in that chart, two ensembles show a 974hpa TC off Gladstone, (74), two 971's off Cairns, (71), O3s and 04s (1003hpa, 1004hpa) across the top end etc. If there were a heap of, say 971's (71s) clustered together then that'd mean good agreement between ensembles that a strong TC is in that area in that point in time.


I do not like any of them to be honest that show any wet weather system heading my way. I am absolutely sodden. Any wet weather system is going to mean that I won't be going anywhere for a month again. Wet and windy means chances are high my power will be gone for a good week. So sorry, no wet and windy things are allowed. grin
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 04/03/2018 23:48

Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Hmmm. Quite interesting when you look for specific numbers as you suggest. So if I understand it correctly, if we have multiples of the same number in close proximity, it's suggestive of higher confidence in the Ensemble and the forecast position at that particular point in time.

Another useful way of visualising confidence in an ensemble or lack thereof is to look at probability maps.

The probabilities simply represent the percentage of that ensemble's forecast members meeting a given threshold. In the examples below, it shows the percentage of the EC ensemble's members forecasting a TC (using a system created by the ECMWF to try and identify warm cored tropical systems meeting TC-like criteria) for the 48hrs up to next Saturday night, and for the 48hrs up to the forecast day that Mega's chart was for (albeit using a different ensemble).

The higher the percentages, the higher the confidence in that particular ensemble.
Note that it's normal for the probabilities to appear modest at long ranges but that's only because of the naturally higher uncertainty that's common at those longer ranges:




Posted by: KevD

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 05/03/2018 09:40

In terms of confidence of something coming together, GFS has been impressively consistent across the last four runs (clickable for the full image):









Obviously a long way out and small differences in initial position can have a magnifying impact on final location down the track, so picking landfall if anything does come together is way too far out (for example the latest 18z run shows an upper trough approaching from the west...the run does not go as far out yet as to show what that means, but my guess would be increased likelihood of missing the east coast altogether), but certainly a decent and consistent signal at this stage from GFS. Now going to wait and watch it disappear on the 00z run crazy
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 05/03/2018 14:52

Da Media got wind of not 1 but 2 cyclones next week. Good grief, I can already see the armageddon headlines.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 05/03/2018 15:50

Latest GFS has it crossing near Port Douglas. Still early days yet.
Posted by: ol mate

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 05/03/2018 16:07

11 Days out on latest GFS. I'll start paying attention when its 5 days out. No doubt news papers and our southern FB friends will dish-out clickbait online in the meantime!
Posted by: gympieweather

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 05/03/2018 16:28

Originally Posted By: ol mate
11 Days out on latest GFS. I'll start paying attention when its 5 days out. No doubt news papers and our southern FB friends will dish-out clickbait online in the meantime!


Can't believe some of the stuff that the media grab on to, especially today's news story in the Cairns Post and others...
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 05/03/2018 17:54

Originally Posted By: Mega
I didn't really make it clear in my above post - but the numbers represent the pressure that particular ensemble is is showing at that time. So in that chart, two ensembles show a 974hpa TC off Gladstone, (74), two 971's off Cairns, (71), O3s and 04s (1003hpa, 1004hpa) across the top end etc. If there were a heap of, say 971's (71s) clustered together then that'd mean good agreement between ensembles that a strong TC is in that area in that point in time.

I really like to look at ensemble spread like this and not just single model runs because it gives a better idea of the potential factors that could come into play at that particular time, but that's just me.



You my friend (Mega), have articulated that very very well indeed. Thanks for the followup info hey.
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 05/03/2018 17:59

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Hmmm. Quite interesting when you look for specific numbers as you suggest. So if I understand it correctly, if we have multiples of the same number in close proximity, it's suggestive of higher confidence in the Ensemble and the forecast position at that particular point in time.

Another useful way of visualising confidence in an ensemble or lack thereof is to look at probability maps.

The probabilities simply represent the percentage of that ensemble's forecast members meeting a given threshold. In the examples below, it shows the percentage of the EC ensemble's members forecasting a TC (using a system created by the ECMWF to try and identify warm cored tropical systems meeting TC-like criteria) for the 48hrs up to next Saturday night, and for the 48hrs up to the forecast day that Mega's chart was for (albeit using a different ensemble).

The higher the percentages, the higher the confidence in that particular ensemble.
Note that it's normal for the probabilities to appear modest at long ranges but that's only because of the naturally higher uncertainty that's common at those longer ranges:









Thanks for that info Ken. Stats are my thing so that makes a lot of sense to me. smile
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 05/03/2018 18:00

Originally Posted By: KevD
In terms of confidence of something coming together, GFS has been impressively consistent across the last four runs (clickable for the full image):









Obviously a long way out and small differences in initial position can have a magnifying impact on final location down the track, so picking landfall if anything does come together is way too far out (for example the latest 18z run shows an upper trough approaching from the west...the run does not go as far out yet as to show what that means, but my guess would be increased likelihood of missing the east coast altogether), but certainly a decent and consistent signal at this stage from GFS. Now going to wait and watch it disappear on the 00z run crazy



smile
Posted by: Hailin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 05/03/2018 18:05

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Monday 5 March 2018
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 8 March 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
A tropical low over western Queensland is forecast to move north or northwest during the coming days and may move into or near the southern Gulf of Carpentaria from Tuesday or Wednesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Tuesday: Very Low.
Wednesday: Very Low.
Thursday: Low.

In the longer term, the monsoon trough is becoming more active in the Gulf of Carpentaria and a tropical low may lie within the trough.
Posted by: Rossby

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 05/03/2018 18:45








00z's
Posted by: scott12

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 05/03/2018 20:43

Originally Posted By: scott12
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I like to interpret it as a "some kind of tropical disturbance signal that could either eventuate in the Gulf or Coral Sea". Given the proximity of the Gulf to the northwest Coral Sea, it only takes a slight change in the setup for a potential system to form in the Gulf instead of the western Coral Sea, or vice versa, or even both.
It's the nature of the beast in the tropics.



Thanks Ken for the explanation..

In regard to your above quote..is the difficulty in predicting where or if a system spins up along the northern flank of the country ,because ,if all the elements are present for cyclogenisis (is this what you called your "tropical disturbance signal"..?..)then its possible for a cyclone or cyclones to literally form anywhere along that low pressure trough line or monsoon trough where those conditions or "signal" exist...or is that too simplistic..?..


Thanks again Ken..I much appreciate you putting weather stuff into pretty simple terms that even an amateur like myself can understand...

I'm still a bit dubious with the models though..I don't know how it can be justified to release models 7-10 days and more into the future when as you showed the probabilities can be quite low.....particularly at this time of year in the tropics when things can change quite significantly between one run and the next..I also wonder about the wisdom of media outlets and facebook weather guys cherrypicking future synoptic images without mentioning those percentages ..it just all seems so wrong..!
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 05/03/2018 20:53

No probs. It goes back to the whole "not all setups are as equally unpredictable as each other" principle.

Some setups have significantly higher than normal probabilities at longer ranges so when that happens, it's hard to ignore and it does provide a useful heads-up to warrant further monitoring. But others have borderline probabilities due to less favourable ingredients so it's close to speculation territory.

As for the media, well you only need to look at this morning's hyped headlines in many of the regional online newspaper facebook pages and you'll be able to guess what my opinion is of the whole clickbait factor on many media fb pages these days.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 05/03/2018 21:44

Um...Yeah....... crazy

Quote:
'It's looking scary': Massive CYCLONE to hit Queensland after severe weather event dumped a month's worth of rain in two days


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...ebook_Australia
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 06/03/2018 01:54

utter rubbish isnt it? News Ltd papers were running this rubbish all day too.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 06/03/2018 09:02

Can anyone help explain why WATL has the rainfall up around Cape York stopping right on the coast. The Cape looks like a wedge placed between heavy rain on both sides. Any explanation appreciated
Posted by: BrisWeatherNerd

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 06/03/2018 09:09

Note how the papers don't go crazy reporting on his as yet unrecognised prediction of a January cyclone hitting Brisbane.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 06/03/2018 09:19

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Can anyone help explain why WATL has the rainfall up around Cape York stopping right on the coast. The Cape looks like a wedge placed between heavy rain on both sides. Any explanation appreciated

I suspect one of the reasons is that ACCESS-R (which is one of the 8 models in the ensemble used by WATL) has a long well-known tendency for excessively cutting back precip over land during the overnight hours while maintaining it over water (this almost always results in an unrealistically sharp cutoff of precip that exactly matches the shape of the coastline).
Although convective precip does typically ease over land during the overnight hours, ACCESS-R takes it too far.
But this is exacerbated even more in WATL from the fact that nocturnal convection and precip is common over water in the tropics during the wet season.

On another note, here's the latest suggestion from the EC ensemble re its range of scenarios for tropical storm tracks colour-coded by intensity for the period within the next 10 days.

Anything from light blue and above = Cat 1 or greater intensity (green is weaker than Cat 1).
The round markers are forecast time intervals.


Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 06/03/2018 09:58

Something seems to be a miss on recent runs - ACCESS-G has gone cold, EC operational barely has anything and GFS has a pathetic midget. Only early days I suppose but when EC op isn't excited then neither am I...
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 06/03/2018 10:03

The Gulf is always a tricky place - surrounding on 3 sides by land so even a small shift of a system or forecast error can make the difference between a major TC and just a weak low.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 06/03/2018 10:19

Originally Posted By: @_Yasified_shak
Um...Yeah....... crazy

Quote:
'It's looking scary': Massive CYCLONE to hit Queensland after severe weather event dumped a month's worth of rain in two days


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...ebook_Australia



That David Taylor used to criticize higgins for making claims like this...now je is doing it.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 06/03/2018 10:26


I went for a walk last night as i left my phone down near the creek, i noticed a trail of big black ants carrying eggs. The last time i saw these ants move was to higher ground (only a few meters away and they have done it twice that i have noticed) just before the area flooded.Tonight they were moving a good 80-100 mtrs away up the hill to an area that doesn't flood at all. Maybe they expect a big flood is coming?
They are a black ant with orange legs that seem to have their abdomen pointed upwards.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 06/03/2018 11:35

I really dunno if ants moving is reliable anymore. Ive seen them moving high when no rain happens and moving eggs after rain.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 06/03/2018 14:17

Thanks for explanation re Cape York/WATL Ken. It is very strange and even occurs during a solid NW feed.Forecasts up that way also seem particularly conservative and are often exceeded. It is hard to find a forum to discuss the weather up that way as anything north of Mareeba rarely gets a mention on WZ. Cheers
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 06/03/2018 16:04

I think that Low for CS was another Model tease.

I don't think we have much chance of anything significant in the next 2 weeks. Hayden Walker and David Taylor are gonna look like fools.
Posted by: bundybear

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 06/03/2018 17:12

Originally Posted By: @_Yasified_shak

I went for a walk last night as i left my phone down near the creek, i noticed a trail of big black ants carrying eggs. The last time i saw these ants move was to higher ground (only a few meters away and they have done it twice that i have noticed) just before the area flooded.Tonight they were moving a good 80-100 mtrs away up the hill to an area that doesn't flood at all. Maybe they expect a big flood is coming?
They are a black ant with orange legs that seem to have their abdomen pointed upwards.


I noticed the big black ants on the move here yesterday evening. Pity they are going up the gate post that has the latch on it and not the one that holds the gate. They hurt when they bite.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 06/03/2018 18:02

Originally Posted By: Mega
Something seems to be a miss on recent runs - ACCESS-G has gone cold, EC operational barely has anything and GFS has a pathetic midget. Only early days I suppose but when EC op isn't excited then neither am I...


I say it's probably due to the Gulf Low/Cyclone that is expected to sit in the Gulf for a number of days. Not allowing the future Coral Sea low to develop as the Gulf Low will have access to all the moisture feed from the North and not allowing the coral sea low to have any.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 06/03/2018 18:16

Ive seen two cyclones close to each other before so dont think that is the reason.

MJO is not a player this time around. Thats the last chance for that to make a difference this wet season.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 06/03/2018 18:39

True about 2 cyclones being close together but that will be more favourable if there a strong Monsoon Trough able to feed both with adequate inflow to both. But, there isn't really monsoon to help with both. We need is for the Gulf low to move over land and weaken enough to allow the coral sea low to have a better chance to develop further. Or it'll just be a troughy like system like what EC is currently suggesting.
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 06/03/2018 19:09

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The Gulf is always a tricky place - surrounding on 3 sides by land so even a small shift of a system or forecast error can make the difference between a major TC and just a weak low.



smile
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 06/03/2018 19:12

Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Ive seen two cyclones close to each other before so dont think that is the reason.

MJO is not a player this time around. Thats the last chance for that to make a difference this wet season.



I wouldn't write the MJO off yet. We still have to the end of April and there's a long time between drinks. It's a very active GOC / Coral Sea / Indian Ocean at the moment.
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 06/03/2018 19:41

Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Originally Posted By: Mega
Something seems to be a miss on recent runs - ACCESS-G has gone cold, EC operational barely has anything and GFS has a pathetic midget. Only early days I suppose but when EC op isn't excited then neither am I...


I say it's probably due to the Gulf Low/Cyclone that is expected to sit in the Gulf for a number of days. Not allowing the future Coral Sea low to develop as the Gulf Low will have access to all the moisture feed from the North and not allowing the coral sea low to have any.


Big high coming in across southern states right now appears to drive dry air northwards again too which could become an issue for development if it hangs around too long. Such a shame, the upper levels become really conducive from about next week onwards as well to be able to sustain a TC - something you don't get many chances at in the CS these days.
Posted by: Rossby

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 06/03/2018 21:23

00Z's Global models within ten days cyclone forecasts.





Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 07/03/2018 05:28

Originally Posted By: Rossby
00Z's Global models within ten days cyclone forecasts.













Sooooo cool !
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 07/03/2018 13:09

Originally Posted By: @_Yasified_shak

I went for a walk last night as i left my phone down near the creek, i noticed a trail of big black ants carrying eggs. The last time i saw these ants move was to higher ground (only a few meters away and they have done it twice that i have noticed) just before the area flooded.Tonight they were moving a good 80-100 mtrs away up the hill to an area that doesn't flood at all. Maybe they expect a big flood is coming?
They are a black ant with orange legs that seem to have their abdomen pointed upwards.


They must have sensed something as last night that area went right under, the highest it has been for over 12 months.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 07/03/2018 14:33

There is no scientific evidence Ants know when rain is coming. Evidence shows there very active after rain but before...the evidence is just not there to support this Myth.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 07/03/2018 14:36

I remenber in townsviile. The ants climbing walls wtc just before heavy rain
Bit like in NZ. Dogs cats and other animals doing weird stuff hours before an earthquake
Posted by: tsunami

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 07/03/2018 14:53

Any thoughts on cyclone Hola. Currently cat 2. Intensifying and heading west from vanuatu. Possibly just north of Newcaladonia
Will it steam to Qld or head south to NZ again
Posted by: Alexis

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 07/03/2018 15:24

Originally Posted By: tsunami
Any thoughts on cyclone Hola. Currently cat 2. Intensifying and heading west from vanuatu. Possibly just north of Newcaladonia
Will it steam to Qld or head south to NZ again

JTWC forecasting an extremely rapid intensification, 75kts in 48h! The loyalties islands are up for a beating!
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 07/03/2018 17:55

Originally Posted By: tsunami
Any thoughts on cyclone Hola. Currently cat 2. Intensifying and heading west from vanuatu. Possibly just north of Newcaladonia
Will it steam to Qld or head south to NZ again


It's one for the fish.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 07/03/2018 18:23

Originally Posted By: tsunami
I remenber in townsviile. The ants climbing walls wtc just before heavy rain
Bit like in NZ. Dogs cats and other animals doing weird stuff hours before an earthquake


Ive seen Ants climbing walls in the middle of dry periods with no rain on way for weeks. I did my research because I used to believe in Ants but there is absokutely no evidence to support the myth. The more I watch them the more I realise its true. Before the big rains we just had the Ants acted no different to any other days. It wasn't until after the rain they started becoming over active.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 07/03/2018 18:24

Originally Posted By: tsunami
Any thoughts on cyclone Hola. Currently cat 2. Intensifying and heading west from vanuatu. Possibly just north of Newcaladonia
Will it steam to Qld or head south to NZ again


Its one for the graveyard apparently.
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 07/03/2018 19:57

Originally Posted By: tsunami
Any thoughts on cyclone Hola. Currently cat 2. Intensifying and heading west from vanuatu. Possibly just north of Newcaladonia
Will it steam to Qld or head south to NZ again



Multiple Models forecast it taking a south-easterly track as it moves toward New Caledonia. Subsequent Model runs support this as well. A High pressure system to the west of the system essentially assists in steering Hola to the south, as do the adjacent High / Lows.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 07/03/2018 21:48

Bugger
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 08/03/2018 00:05

be watching the NW coral sea at this stage anyway.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 08/03/2018 01:10

Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Ive seen Ants climbing walls in the middle of dry periods with no rain on way for weeks. I did my research because I used to believe in Ants but there is absokutely no evidence to support the myth. The more I watch them the more I realise its true. Before the big rains we just had the Ants acted no different to any other days. It wasn't until after the rain they started becoming over active.

Yep that happens here too - it's usually either only AFTER rain's fallen that they get really busy here (not just one species but multiple species... and not just scurrying around but also things like carrying eggs, etc)... or when it's hot.
Very reactive rather than proactive.

There's been many times here as well when I've observed much busier than normal ant activity over a number of days but instead of any major rainfall occurring within the next 30 days, nothing's happened or it's even become drier than normal.

I suspect many people remember the times when busy ant activity was followed by rain but never all the other times that nothing happened after busy ant activity.
Another factor is how much of a time window you're willing to allow for significant rain to occur after busy any activity. If you extend that time window out far enough (for example, a few weeks), of course it's eventually going to rain simply through sheer odds regardless of what ants have been doing.
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 08/03/2018 04:44

Originally Posted By: Mick10
be watching the NW coral sea at this stage anyway.



smile
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 08/03/2018 07:59

Looks like this (Scary Cyclone) for next week aka weak trough system is going to wash out just off the central/capricornia coast with just an increase in coastal showers. How boring! But, this morning's EC develops a slightly more interesting low off the NE coast as soon as the Gulf low is out of the picture.

Re: ants, I agree with Ken when it comes to nature they are reactive to the current conditions and their natural behavior cycles. When it come's to plants they flower either from length of day or all year round if enough adequate nutrients have been provided. Eg past rain event and not an indication of a near future rain event.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 08/03/2018 16:10

To who ever said dont count the MJO out yet...it appears to be restrengthing as it approaches the MC
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 08/03/2018 17:22

Originally Posted By: rainthisway
To who ever said dont count the MJO out yet...it appears to be restrengthing as it approaches the MC


To be perfectly honest, i'd done some research in this space and I was reasonably confident we'd see the MJO once if not twice before the end of April. If you have the time, take a look at the MJO data from past years and correlate it against against the major Tropical Cyclones. There's one or two surprises in there.
Posted by: Dan101

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 08/03/2018 21:23

(Re: Solomon Islands system) EC gradually starting to throw some more interesting scenarios out in the ensemble member storm tracks... A couple (about 6) showing slightly more intense systems with coastal impacts. Has been trending this way for the past few runs. Still only a small percentage of members, but something to keep us interested!



Probability of a tropical cyclone within 48hrs from next Friday night 7pm (16th March). Probability still <10% but gives a rough indication of possible crossing locations IF it was to reach cyclone status.

Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 08/03/2018 21:49

id bet on at least a strong tropical low hitting between Tsv and Sarina in the next 10 days.

EC monthlies have been onto it for 2 weeks. now its appearing on determanistics.
Posted by: nimbuss1

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 08/03/2018 23:31

The weather is changing rapidly or the bureau is stuffing up.........both maybe....
Todays MT forecast....
Few of the old folk say.....like the old days...30 40 years ago!
hmmmmm..............
1400 today ,4 day forecast vs 1700 forecast.....(synoptic charts)

1400 4day..
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
1700 chart...
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 08/03/2018 23:37

Originally Posted By: nimbuss1
The weather is changing rapidly or the bureau is stuffing up.........both maybe....
Todays MT forecast....
Few of the old folk say.....like the old days...30 40 years ago!
hmmmmm..............
1400 today ,4 day forecast vs 1700 forecast.....(synoptic charts)

1400 4day..
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
1700 chart...
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml


Not sure what you pointing out there? The first chart in the 4-day MSLP forecast charts is for tomorrow while the last chart (the analysis chart) is for this afternoon and not a forecast....
Posted by: nimbuss1

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 08/03/2018 23:44

Correct me if im wrong Ken, but is there a difference in MT plotting?
And if so, its quite an unpredictable time??
Love tropical times in the far north!
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/03/2018 06:54

Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
id bet on at least a strong tropical low hitting between Tsv and Sarina in the next 10 days.

EC monthlies have been onto it for 2 weeks. now its appearing on determanistics.


EC is looking promising this morning!
Posted by: tsunami

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/03/2018 07:19

Gfs has a system just off SEqld wed 14th
Posted by: SBT

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/03/2018 09:27

I will believe it at the 5 day mark. Until then its pure fantasy to posit when or were they may or may not form.

That we will get a couple of lows is a given, that they form into anything is a remote possibility at this stage.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/03/2018 09:52

EC (Deterministic) even more interesting. A weak low hitting the CQ coast and then a cyclone hitting the far north towards the end of the run. But really all this says is that given how much things have chopped and changed over the last few days, the models have not got the slightest idea whatsoever atm. Fun to watch but amazingly bad right now. Must be a very complex environment up there.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/03/2018 10:17

Have to get lucky sometimes, GFS was onto something happening around the 14th last Sunday, hope someone gets a good show.
Posted by: Locke

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/03/2018 10:24

EC and GFS are now a lot closer together at 5 days than they have been for weeks.

Gives me a greater degree of confidence we will see something off SE or Central QLD in the coming week.

Latest GFS has shifted a little further East though.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/03/2018 10:24

Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Have to get lucky sometimes, GFS was onto something happening around the 14th last Sunday, hope someone gets a good show.

So were other models though. GFS is absolutely TERRIBLE at long range compared to some of the other models. I wish it wasn't the case but it is. Of course it'll get some setups right earlier than others through sheer odds and it shouldn't be totally excluded (the 1 out of 5 setups it does nail at long ranges then causes it to become the God model in some people's eyes) but I do wish it was a lot better.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/03/2018 10:57

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
then causes it to become the God model in some people's eyes)


must be what the G stands for.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/03/2018 11:11

Yes Ken, wish GFS would do better as most other models but they all have a similarity to a dart board.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/03/2018 15:21

If EC gets it right. 3 tl or tcs will effect the state 1 in gulf and 2 in cs. Good times.
Posted by: CycloneTim

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/03/2018 18:04

I reckon a cat 1-2 crossing bloomsbury give or take 50 k's
Posted by: Rossby

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/03/2018 19:16





https://i.imgur.com/DSNI6aG.png

*Removed enormous picture, click on the link instead.*
Posted by: marakai

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/03/2018 21:19

Hey Rossby smile ever tried resizing your images before posting them ?
Real pain in the arse to look at when they load.
Interesting none the less.
Posted by: cold@28

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/03/2018 21:49

Originally Posted By: marakai
Hey Rossby smile ever tried resizing your images before posting them ?
Real pain in the arse to look at when they load.
Interesting none the less.


Yikes, can't see them on a 13 inch screen, they go right off the page to the right and below.
Interesting though, thanks.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/03/2018 22:03

Bit of finger work but looks fine on a stupid phone, nice graphics.
Still not the result we looking for.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/03/2018 22:04

Seems abit dramatic for a 5th post..
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/03/2018 22:31

YeA, waaay too much fingerwork for a Fri night.
Go the Cows!
Posted by: Dan101

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/03/2018 23:13

1st world problems.... Great images Rossby! Thereís no minimum post tally requirement for posting informative graphics smile
Posted by: marakai

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 09/03/2018 23:22

Not saying Rossby's post's are not informative Dan,
just that they are a tad painful to look at in their current form is all.
+ I doub't there are many Third world viewer's of the current format in any case either.
So it is all relevant.
Posted by: tsunami

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 00:01

Its fantastic to see someone take so much time to post info
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 00:55

Thanks for the useful images. Haven't seen them yet and I've been following things closely.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 07:50

Just seems odd to post only graphics with no explanation and only a handful of posts and images that anyone can view on a website.
Posted by: cold@28

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 08:10

Please don't anyone quote them again, or we'll have the next page too wide and ruined too.

Hi Rossby, welcome to Weatherzone Forums.

Newbies are allowed to make mistakes.

The problem for me is that they're so big I can only view a quarter of an image at a time, on my phone; and maybe a third of an image on my 13" laptop. Impossible to view an image in entirety.

The whole page gets pushed excessively wide, so every post after that we have to scroll sideways, & it becomes difficult to read.

It may be different on a large monitor, but there's a lot of swiping going on for those of us with smaller screens, for every post on that particular page.

Cheers, J.
Posted by: Sillybanter

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 08:11

Great post Rossby, thanks for the information.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 08:17

Ive been on this forum long enough that this Rossby is not a newbie...
Posted by: cold@28

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 08:18

Originally Posted By: Steve O
Ive been on this forum long enough that this Rossby is not a newbie...

New to actually posting then?
(Joined 3 February & 5 posts.)
Posted by: tsunami

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 08:34

Cricky guys
Give the person a break
They are new stop picking on them or theyll leave or wont post again
I say well done for the graphs
Posted by: cold@28

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 08:45

I have never forgotten asking what everyone thought was a stupid question when I was a newbie. I asked a mod how to delete my account... That was in the days just after Yasi, and it's still rare that I post in the cyclone threads.

So Rossby, keep posting, we're interested, but please resize your images.
Posted by: Davey440

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 09:01

So... Back to the topic.... are the odds still firming up for a CS low or TC to threaten the coast late next week?
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 09:56

Seabreeze predicting 18ft waves on Wednesday. Must be a close encounter on the way according to their modelling. That is some serious waves!

https://www.seabreeze.com.au/weather/wind-forecast/qld-sunshine-coast
Posted by: Rossby

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 11:52

Originally Posted By: Steve O
Just seems odd to post only graphics with no explanation and only a handful of posts and images that anyone can view on a website.


Was just heads up post of what the guidance is showing. Forums
are not really the platform i use these days (twitter). Size really should not matter unless your a woman laugh...

You guys being hardcore i did not think the graphics need any explanation anyway.





What was displayed on 90P graphic you pointed at was the
nrl image of the large mid-level gyre MG solomon sea.

Where the or how many surface vort's form within the gyre is
anyone's guess atm. Look to guidance consensus there.

One thing for/sure is the westerlies are are cranking in the gyre.


Hasta la Vista.
Posted by: whynot

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 12:40

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
... GFS is absolutely TERRIBLE at long range compared to some of the other models...


True. But, in defence of GFS, for many years it was the only decent numerical model available in the public domain for free. Quite a few of us cut our amateur weather forecasting teeth on it, and over time learnt to understand its strengths and weaknesses. On more than one occasion, I used GFS computer models to explain to Senior Executives what some of the severe weather scenarios looked like. Back in 2010, I sought a quotation for ECWMF to cover south east Queensland and surrounds, and they came back with a price of $250K per annum. GFS is not perfect, but it is sure better than nothing, and it is hard to argue with the price.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 12:54

whynot: Yep I agree that itís great that itís free especially back on the days before data from some of the other models started becoming more widely available publicly. And it still has some good points in that it does particularly well in short-range TC track performance once a TCís formed and its intensity has steadied off.
It has less of an advantage now though with all sorts of variables from more reliable models like the ECMWF being freely available in the public domain from a range of websites. Itís also become a bit of a double edge sword as well in this day and age of clickbait media with so many media outlets sharing a doomsday GFS map for some TC hitting the coast 14 days out.
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 14:54

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
whynot: Yep I agree that itís great that itís free especially back on the days before data from some of the other models started becoming more widely available publicly. And it still has some good points in that it does particularly well in short-range TC track performance once a TCís formed and its intensity has steadied off.
It has less of an advantage now though with all sorts of variables from more reliable models like the ECMWF being freely available in the public domain from a range of websites. Itís also become a bit of a double edge sword as well in this day and age of clickbait media with so many media outlets sharing a doomsday GFS map for some TC hitting the coast 14 days out.



Spot on Ken. I am constantly amazed at how quickly the media can 'jump on the bandwagon', only to have a number of Models in front of me thinking, "really". It's beyond embarrassing.
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 17:07

Originally Posted By: whynot
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
... GFS is absolutely TERRIBLE at long range compared to some of the other models...


True. But, in defence of GFS, for many years it was the only decent numerical model available in the public domain for free. Quite a few of us cut our amateur weather forecasting teeth on it, and over time learnt to understand its strengths and weaknesses. On more than one occasion, I used GFS computer models to explain to Senior Executives what some of the severe weather scenarios looked like. Back in 2010, I sought a quotation for ECWMF to cover south east Queensland and surrounds, and they came back with a price of $250K per annum. GFS is not perfect, but it is sure better than nothing, and it is hard to argue with the price.


I still remember using the old AVN plotter program back in the early - mid 00's to download GFS data from NOAA before we had BSCH and all the others. Ah, those were the days.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 20:22

Originally Posted By: nimbuss1
Correct me if im wrong Ken, but is there a difference in MT plotting?
And if so, its quite an unpredictable time??
Love tropical times in the far north!
Sorry still not sure what you mean.
The first chart you posted were forecast charts starting from the following day while the second chart was the analysis chart for that current day. So it's impossible to compare the two because one was forecast and the other was observed.
Posted by: paulcirrus

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 21:13

OMG, Whats people thoughts for next week....
Posted by: Steve O

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 21:16

0% chance of anything
Posted by: tsunami

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 21:55

Brisbane has been hit by cyclones in the past but not for a long time.
It will happen again and itll be caos
Posted by: windy poon

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 22:02

Be prepared then relieved when nothing happens. Ready for a weather event should it occur here in Yeppoon
Posted by: Dan101

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 22:13

Just started a new thread for Invest 90P: http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...018#Post1456568
Posted by: gawain

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 22:24

As Mathew used to say it's 50% 50%
Posted by: Mathew

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 23:39

Yeah that what I am thinking at the moment.

Good point.
Posted by: Dan101

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 23:44

Originally Posted By: Mathew
Yeah that what I am thinking at the moment.

Good point.


Gold! Good to see you back, Mathew. 😊👍🏻
Posted by: Mathew

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 10/03/2018 23:51

Thanks you.

I am also watching an another low might developing into some things big in the Pacific.

It's might do some things.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 11/03/2018 00:07

What are the factors that make Tropical lows/cyclones so hard to predict?
Posted by: Popeye

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 11/03/2018 10:37

Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
OMG, Whats people thoughts for next week....

I'm thinking East coast TC off to NZ and then GOC and Coral Sea initiates two Cyclone to move across into WA. Thanks guys. cheers poke
Posted by: Dan101

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 11/03/2018 14:32

Originally Posted By: Popeye
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
OMG, Whats people thoughts for next week....

I'm thinking East coast TC off to NZ and then GOC and Coral Sea initiates two Cyclone to move across into WA. Thanks guys. cheers poke


If Popeye was the woman, and Qld was the dog...

Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 11/03/2018 16:23

Coastal crossing is out the question me thinks...all models agree with heading for seqld then off to graveyard
Posted by: nimbuss1

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 11/03/2018 16:40

Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
What are the factors that make Tropical lows/cyclones so hard to predict?

For a cyclone to form several preconditions must be met:
1. Warm ocean waters (of at least 26.5įC) throughout a sufficient depth (unknown how deep, but at least on the order of 50 m). Warm waters are necessary to fuel the heat engine of the tropical cyclone.
2. An atmosphere which cools fast enough with height (is "unstable" enough) such that it encourages thunderstorm activity. It is the thunderstorm activity which allows the heat stored in the ocean waters to be liberated for the tropical cyclone development.
3. Relatively moist layers near the mid-troposphere (5 km). Dry mid levels are not conducive for allowing the continuing development of widespread thunderstorm activity.
4. A minimum distance of around 500 km from the equator. Some of the earth's spin (Coriolis force) is needed to maintain the low pressure of the system. (Systems can form closer to the equator but it's a rare event)
5. A pre-existing disturbance near the surface with sufficient spin (vorticity) and inflow (convergence). Tropical cyclones cannot be generated spontaneously. To develop, they require a weakly organised system with sizeable spin and low level inflow.
6. Little change in the wind with height (low vertical wind shear, i.e. less than 40 km/h from surface to tropopause). Large values of wind shear tend to disrupt the organisation of the thunderstorms that are important to the inner part of a cyclone.

Having these conditions met is necessary, but not sufficient as many disturbances that appear to have favourable conditions do not develop.
Posted by: Rossby

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 11/03/2018 16:49

Storm across the topend originates and drops down from the indonesian archipelago. Totally different from the two that EC spins up in the coral sea.

Posted by: Rossby

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 11/03/2018 17:24

Originally Posted By: Rossby
Storm across the topend originates and drops down from the indonesian archipelago. Totally different from the two that EC spins up in the coral sea.




00Z UKMET drops it down from the archipelago and sends east. A big split between the two bests models atm

https://imgur.com/6THpfB6
Posted by: ashestoashes

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 11/03/2018 17:53

Thanks for that Nimbuss1
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 13/03/2018 18:54

Bom 4 day charts show a low bringing the monsoon closer to north qld...good region to watch as TC linda is not gonna do a great deal by the looks of it.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/03/2018 10:17

GFS definitely considering that another system is possible.

but at day 14....
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/03/2018 10:21

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
GFS definitely considering that another system is possible.

but at day 14....


I wouldnt take any notice..GFS'long range modelling has been quite bad this year.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/03/2018 10:30

It's terrible at long range every year lol

May be entertaining to watch and provide a talking point (like that supposed "twin cyclone bomb" it was going to hit SE QLD with), and may or may not come off but the deterministic version of GFS is close to using a dartboard at that range.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/03/2018 10:36

I think GFS in week 2 has been ok in identifying general trends in tropical activity. But arguably no better than using the MJO forecasts which suggests MJO in westpac at that range.
Posted by: ol mate

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/03/2018 10:40

so much for the 'SCAREY' cyclone...
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/03/2018 12:09

Originally Posted By: ol mate
so much for the 'SCAREY' cyclone...


Yeah, and also...

Weather guru predicts cyclone will cross Qld coast
by Olivia Grace-Curran, Townsville Bulletin
15th Feb 2018 1:45 PM
A TROPICAL cyclone set to impact Queensland will develop in the Coral Sea in the next fortnight, according to one long-range weather forecaster


https://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/ne...3336187/?ref=hs

Police are onto it....
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/03/2018 13:06

That GFS 14 day map looks interesting, on a dart board.
Nevertheless, something to amuse & cause discussion.
Ex Linda still a nice looking feature on Himawari.
Posted by: Locke

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/03/2018 14:34

Linda's still generating some strong winds with Cato Island recording a gust of 111kmh just before midday.
Posted by: Aussea

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/03/2018 15:20

Is this thing heading back to the SE Coast after a bit of a loopy de loop?

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/
Posted by: Phantom

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/03/2018 15:36

A long way away but it looks like circulation beginning at about 170 - 180 degrees x 5degrees south on the Himawari-8 sat, around about where Yasi came from;)
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/03/2018 18:15

Originally Posted By: @_Yasified_shak
Originally Posted By: ol mate
so much for the 'SCAREY' cyclone...


Yeah, and also...

Weather guru predicts cyclone will cross Qld coast
by Olivia Grace-Curran, Townsville Bulletin
15th Feb 2018 1:45 PM
A TROPICAL cyclone set to impact Queensland will develop in the Coral Sea in the next fortnight, according to one long-range weather forecaster


https://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/ne...3336187/?ref=hs

Police are onto it....


They will still claim they predicted it right.
Posted by: Steve O

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/03/2018 19:17

The thing is HSC never actually said the systen would impact QLD as a TC they planted the thoughts into the viewers head with possibility and uncertainty to keep em on the edge of the seat and people being so stupid they started creating a scenario and the sheep ate it up. The actual un-hyped forecast in the subscription that you pay and I guess they think they've gotten something informative that they could of just got for free on FB or various and many other websites etc. Mean while thats another hyped up non event and 10000 more followers and everyone talking about them.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/03/2018 19:29

Bull [censored]

He posted a picture with an arrow pointing straight at Brisbane.
Then wouldnt tell anyone about the possibilites unless they signed up.
Complete Grubbyness. Thomas is just as bad the little girl.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/03/2018 19:30

75% model shift towards SE QLD apparently too!

he needs to lay off the drugs. Quickly.

I hope theres another public drug rant comin!
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/03/2018 19:34

Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Bull [censored]

He posted a picture with an arrow pointing straight at Brisbane.
Then wouldnt tell anyone about the possibilites unless they signed up.
Complete Grubbyness. Thomas is just as bad the little girl.



lmao he really did that? Wow that takes the cake.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/03/2018 19:40

Yeah about 3 days ago.

Made the post with a satellite photo with an arrow pointing right at SE QLD.

Anyone who asked a question, he linked them to the subscription.
Posted by: Steven

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/03/2018 19:55

to quote Star Trek Deep Space Nine:
from the Rules of Acquisition
Rule 239, Never be afraid to mislabel a product.
Posted by: james1977

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/03/2018 19:59

Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Yeah about 3 days ago.

Made the post with a satellite photo with an arrow pointing right at SE QLD.

Anyone who asked a question, he linked them to the subscription.

He even headed the title as breaking news lol. Drama sells, and I bet his subcribtions have done well in the last 3 days. All he and Thomas are are bloody thieving scamming bastards who should be stopped. Brisbane weathers not much better, least his bull craps free.

On another note, what's up with meteye having old Linda doing a u bolt and hanging back off the Frazer coast on the 18th?
Posted by: james1977

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/03/2018 20:00

Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Yeah about 3 days ago.

Made the post with a satellite photo with an arrow pointing right at SE QLD.

Anyone who asked a question, he linked them to the subscription.

Was actually yesterday trav
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/03/2018 20:05

Originally Posted By: james1977
On another note, what's up with meteye having old Linda doing a u bolt and hanging back off the Frazer coast on the 18th?

That's just the weakening remnants of ex-Linda wandering around erratically offshore due to competing varying steering influences over time.
After losing its deeper convection, it'll be steered more by steering in the lower levels.

The track shown on Meteye is simply the same one as the final official track map for Linda, except it goes out to 5 days.


Posted by: james1977

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/03/2018 20:32

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: james1977
On another note, what's up with meteye having old Linda doing a u bolt and hanging back off the Frazer coast on the 18th?

That's just the weakening remnants of ex-Linda wandering around erratically offshore due to competing varying steering influences over time.
After losing its deeper convection, it'll be steered more by steering in the lower levels.

The track shown on Meteye is simply the same one as the final official track map for Linda, except it goes out to 5 days.



Cheers for that ken, bit more rain be nice before the winter ice age sets in. Any chance of that mate?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 14/03/2018 20:34

Just some isolated hit and miss showers for SE QLD and even those should become confined to the coastal fringe and islands as winds turn more southerly.... unless the remains of ex-Linda pull off some unforecast miracle.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/03/2018 10:03

I honestly dont know how Higgins can legelly charge for weather data he steals from free places like bom and weatherzone...he doesnt have any professional modelling equipment.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/03/2018 10:08

Im liking access latest lol
Posted by: Aussea

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/03/2018 13:23

Oh dear... http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-15...orecast/9549878
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/03/2018 13:44

Quote:
"When accused of generating clickbait forecasts, Mr Hinterdorfer said, "We're not going to beef up everything and have it as this massive, hyped, scaremongering tactic".

"If the title is a little bit, I guess, if people want to say clickbait, then it's not. By far.

"I guess that's just what social media is now. We don't intend to have clickbait.

"Of course you want people to click on your articles, but I guess some people can take it as clickbait."


yeah ok Thomas, whatever you say.
Posted by: Kino

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/03/2018 13:48

He's right in a way though, the internet is a competition for clicks. It's the accountability part that is missing.
Posted by: wilyms

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/03/2018 13:53



QFES guy said it best
Posted by: ol mate

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/03/2018 14:07

about time someone called these *people* (could have inserted a much better phrase there) out for what it is - utter bloody rubbish
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/03/2018 18:20

Would be really great if we could get back on topic. The broader media are no angels either, so lets move on.
Posted by: RC

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/03/2018 19:20

No different to BOM putting out severe storm warnings for areas they know will not be affected, but just to cover themselves.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/03/2018 20:59

Even though it looks likely something will develop in the coral sea in around 10-14 days time. Models are also showing an active period of upper troughing across Central/Eastern Australia at that time period.
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/03/2018 21:12

Better off with something in the gulf with those conditions.
Posted by: Mathew

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/03/2018 22:22

IS this what you are talking about?

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 15/03/2018 22:23

Access still has that low at end of its run.
Posted by: Steamy

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 17/03/2018 07:20

All of the models are hinting at a low or TD in Coral Sea after 192 hrs and at this early stage looks like it will be off to the SE
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 17/03/2018 08:01

Originally Posted By: Steamy
All of the models are hinting at a low or TD in Coral Sea after 192 hrs and at this early stage looks like it will be off to the SE


Typical
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 19/03/2018 12:09

Access is brewing a gulf low for us....something to watch...small but deadly maybe. Cmc similar. Gfs keepsit in the gulf and EC throws.it west.
Posted by: cold@28

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 19/03/2018 13:10

Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Access is brewing a gulf low for us....something to watch...small but deadly maybe. Cmc similar. Gfs keepsit in the gulf and EC throws.it west.

Hope it comes straight over the top of us &gives us days of heavy rain. Chillagoe has had water restrictions since October last year.
Posted by: ifishcq

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 19/03/2018 15:05

Bit late in the season isnt it?
Posted by: FujiWha

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 19/03/2018 16:06

Early Outlook from BoM for low brewing up in the Gulf:
BoM Outlook

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
IDD10610

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Monday 19 March 2018
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 22 March 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
##

Potential Cyclones:

A weak Tropical Low, 1008 hPa, is located in the vicinity of Torres Strait, near 10S 140E. The low is expected to move west into the Arafura Sea and may further develop over the coming days.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Tuesday:Very Low.
Wednesday:Low.
Thursday:Moderate.



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50%
The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 19/03/2018 17:44

Originally Posted By: ifishcq
Bit late in the season isnt it?


No...Cyclones have been known to form in May. Recently we had Cyclone Ita a category 5 in April.
Posted by: ol mate

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 19/03/2018 17:52

interesting times ahead...could end the quiet season with a bang!
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 19/03/2018 20:50

Here's the percentages of all the 62 forecast members from the GFS/CMC/US Navy ensembles that are predicting sustained winds of the equivalent of Cat 1 or higher (34 knots or more) at any stage within the next 7 days (using the 12z runs on Sunday night):


Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 19/03/2018 22:26

GFS going into nutso territory with an 896 hpa cyclone in GOC by Friday.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/03/2018 01:22

should this low/tc move into the southern GOC, its flow and the chances of decent rain for the east coast will be lowered by the area of low pressure in the coral sea.
Posted by: ifishcq

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/03/2018 09:32

Going west once again. Such a poor season
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/03/2018 12:25

Originally Posted By: ifishcq
Going west once again. Such a poor season


Season isn't poor...just eastern region is poor...WA has been over active lol then again how often goes QLD beat WA for Cyclones.
Posted by: Locke

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/03/2018 12:52

Looking at the last GFS run. Nhulunbuy would cop an absolute hammering by a sideswipe from a Cat 5 system on Friday.

Would probably miss the eye but be looking at wind gusts in excess of 200kmh.

Track has been variable in terms of positioning in the GOC across the past couple of days but virtually every GFS run would have put the strength at Cat 5.

EC has a similar track but is not as bullish on the strength (GFS frequently overdoes the intensification).
Posted by: Flowin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/03/2018 13:16

Many models and BoM's judgement seem to be aligned on GOC system.

Interesting though 18Z run on NAVGEM (in about 5 days) and CMC (in about 7 days) also showing up low pressure systems in Coral Sea. GFS and ECMWF not showing Coral Sea activity.
Posted by: FujiWha

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/03/2018 22:10

JWTC have an interest in this one now...

JWTC

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.4S
137.1E, APPROXIMATELY 228 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GOVE AIRPORT,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKLY
DEFINED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED,
FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. A 192353Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A DEFINED BUT BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT 94P WILL TRACK
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES NORTHERN
AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 20/03/2018 23:05

I'm currently designing a script that does multi-model tracks for TC's that haven't been designated a tropical low/Invest yet.

The tracks start when the relevant model detects a min of 34kt sustained winds in any quadrant of a developing system and end when winds drop below 34kt. The markers are at 12hr intervals/

Here's an output using Monday night's 12z runs of some of the models (will probably have changed by the time you read this):


Posted by: cold@28

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/03/2018 00:18

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I'm currently designing a script that does multi-model tracks for TC's that haven't been designated a tropical low/Invest yet. ..... Here's an output using Monday night's 12z runs of some of the models (will probably have changed by the time you read this)

They're all going the wrong direction, can't you make them come over to Queensland please frown frown
Posted by: KiwiSonia

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/03/2018 10:24

Hmmm looks like Townsville's rain dome has morphed into a Queensland cyclone dome with this image......
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/03/2018 12:27

The latest EC has this system bouncing around the gulf like a pinball. I'm not sure weather this will earn it any extra points.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/03/2018 13:18

Just not our year for cyclones. Time is running out rapidly.
Posted by: bigjohn

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/03/2018 13:28

Just not our year for Cyclones....... Probably not a bad thing for me and hundreds of others waiting for our roofs and houses to be repaired.o be replaced
Posted by: Flowin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/03/2018 13:31

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I'm currently designing a script that does multi-model tracks for TC's that haven't been designated a tropical low/Invest yet.

The tracks start when the relevant model detects a min of 34kt sustained winds in any quadrant of a developing system and end when winds drop below 34kt. The markers are at 12hr intervals/

Here's an output using Monday night's 12z runs of some of the models (will probably have changed by the time you read this):


Good work Ken. While I look at others such as tropical tidbits, NCAR RAL Tropical Cyclones, and NOAA, your version is the first I have seen showing ACCESS (not that I would necessarily want to rely entirely on ACCESS, but it is good to compare)
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/03/2018 13:55

Any update on the probable intensity?
Posted by: ifishcq

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/03/2018 14:09

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Any update on the probable intensity?


Cat 7

http://cdn-europe1.new2.ladmedia.fr/var/...e-aux-fakes.jpg
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/03/2018 14:30

They will know that is a fake in Karumba. No great whites up there! Cat 4/5 mentioned earlier "bouncing around".
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/03/2018 15:17

Here's the latest (using last night's 12z runs) multi-model tracks out to 6 days

(for anyone using windy.com today for EC forecasts, the data from the 12z run didn't make it into their site for whatever reason so that site is using an older run).

I've forced the starting point for all tracks to commence from 10am Thursday for consistency regardless of whether the relevant model has intensified the system to TC intensity or not by then.

As you can see, the Gulf is living up to its classic unpredictability with track uncertainty although the consensus does still seem to suggest a general tendency for a westward curvature:


Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 21/03/2018 15:35

all discussion on the GOC low can now be discussed here -

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...201#Post1458277
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 22/03/2018 10:06

Well seems that this season is a flop for CS crossings. Unless this GoC does what Access says or goes inland through middle of Qld then we got no chance.
Posted by: WANDJINA G'vale

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 23/03/2018 07:35

Nora will be over with a flash and a bang, I wonder what is in the works next, season definitely not over, are conditions favourable or going to be so dead there is nothing left in the tank?
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 23/03/2018 12:47

NOAA has an invest in the Coral sea http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH952018

JTWC have it listed as a medium chance of forming into a cyclone.


THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.3S 165.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 163.9E, APPROXIMATELY
625 NM NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEFINED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND LIMITED PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE
CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK, BUT ARE SPLIT ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM
BEING THE ONLY MODELS THAT DEVELOP THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
Posted by: @_Yasified_shak

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 23/03/2018 17:50

JTWC have bumped this one up to a high chance, probably should be in the world thread.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INV 95P), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S
163.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 163.5E, APPROXIMATELY 560NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
CONSOLODATE AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 222253Z BULLSEYE ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF 25KT
WINDS, WITH A SMALLER REGION OF 30KT WINDS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE WITH A POINT SOURCE OFFSET SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST CREATING GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT AT 28 CELSIUS BUT BECOME UNFAVORABLE
SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT AS 95P MAKES A CURVING TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH THE UKMO AND JGSM DISSENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 24/03/2018 02:38

personally i hope this low buggers off, any chance of decent rain from Nora on the east coast is dependent on this low. too strong will ruin our easterly flow.
Posted by: windshear

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 24/03/2018 08:10

Well hello TC Iris! 3 cyclones around us at once, so much for the season being done;)
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/03/2018 08:00

And as quick as Iris is here, she's gone (BOM).
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/03/2018 08:22

Well, at least QLD finally had a cyclone impact this season.
Posted by: ifishcq

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/03/2018 08:23

Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
And as quick as Iris is here, she's gone (BOM).


The worst cyclone season for the coral sea ever.
2 cyclones, both lasting only 1 day each.
Thank you climate change.
Posted by: Synoptic

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/03/2018 08:23

Iris from JTWC
A NW movement in the CS shocked
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/03/2018 08:28

Originally Posted By: ifishcq
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
And as quick as Iris is here, she's gone (BOM).


The worst cyclone season for the coral sea ever.
2 cyclones, both lasting only 1 day each.
Thank you climate change.


There could be any number of reasons why this has been a quiet cyclone season for QLD. As a new member here, I'd suggest that you read this:

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...oru#Post1201332
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/03/2018 15:07

One of the worst coral sea seasons ever and TBH it will go down in the books as far better than it actually was. Linda was officially a cyclone but what a travesty she was and Iris formed outside our AOR, barely made it in and was as bad as Linda in regards to being a cyclone(well maybe). Why? Who knows but sheesh!!!
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/03/2018 15:48

We will pay for it one day, look what happened in the U.S., they went ten years without a major impact and then they got smashed.
Posted by: Stormwithin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/03/2018 18:23

Uhhhh....cyclone season isn't over, no need to cry yourselves to sleep yet. Last year was a terrible season as well, imo. @Chris Stumer what? Why make statements like that!?
Posted by: Red Watch

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/03/2018 18:27

Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
One of the worst coral sea seasons ever and TBH it will go down in the books as far better than it actually was. Linda was officially a cyclone but what a travesty she was and Iris formed outside our AOR, barely made it in and was as bad as Linda in regards to being a cyclone(well maybe). Why? Who knows but sheesh!!!

This is from Tropical Tidbits web page at the time of writing.

There are currently no tropical cyclones in any ocean basin.

There are currently no invests in any ocean basin.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
Posted by: Stormwithin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/03/2018 18:31

That's because they're now ex-tc's.
Posted by: Red Watch

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/03/2018 20:17

You don't see that page empty all that often especially in the typhoon season. Not long ago we had three cyclones in our area.
Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/03/2018 20:27

Originally Posted By: Red Watch
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
One of the worst coral sea seasons ever and TBH it will go down in the books as far better than it actually was. Linda was officially a cyclone but what a travesty she was and Iris formed outside our AOR, barely made it in and was as bad as Linda in regards to being a cyclone(well maybe). Why? Who knows but sheesh!!!

This is from Tropical Tidbits web page at the time of writing.

There are currently no tropical cyclones in any ocean basin.

There are currently no invests in any ocean basin.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/


Seems Odd. One would think Nora would still be an invest at least. High probability she will reform once (if) she gets back over the gulf
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/03/2018 20:53

Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
One of the worst coral sea seasons ever and TBH it will go down in the books as far better than it actually was. Linda was officially a cyclone but what a travesty she was and Iris formed outside our AOR, barely made it in and was as bad as Linda in regards to being a cyclone(well maybe). Why? Who knows but sheesh!!!

This is from Tropical Tidbits web page at the time of writing.

There are currently no tropical cyclones in any ocean basin.

There are currently no invests in any ocean basin.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/


Seems Odd. One would think Nora would still be an invest at least. High probability she will reform once (if) she gets back over the gulf



There's invests back on Levi's page (TT). The TC season has another couple of weeks to run yet, so anything is possible.
Posted by: Red Watch

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/03/2018 21:17

Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
One of the worst coral sea seasons ever and TBH it will go down in the books as far better than it actually was. Linda was officially a cyclone but what a travesty she was and Iris formed outside our AOR, barely made it in and was as bad as Linda in regards to being a cyclone(well maybe). Why? Who knows but sheesh!!!

This is from Tropical Tidbits web page at the time of writing.

There are currently no tropical cyclones in any ocean basin.

There are currently no invests in any ocean basin.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/


Seems Odd. One would think Nora would still be an invest at least. High probability she will reform once (if) she gets back over the gulf

They must have had technical problems Nora and Iris and two other systems are on there now.
Posted by: FujiWha

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/03/2018 21:36

Don't give up on it yet, supposedly Iris (or remnants) swings back towards the southern QLD coast then follows it up to around Mackay before dissolving...if that pans out then that coastline could get a fair bit of weather...
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/03/2018 21:38

Originally Posted By: Red Watch
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
One of the worst coral sea seasons ever and TBH it will go down in the books as far better than it actually was. Linda was officially a cyclone but what a travesty she was and Iris formed outside our AOR, barely made it in and was as bad as Linda in regards to being a cyclone(well maybe). Why? Who knows but sheesh!!!

This is from Tropical Tidbits web page at the time of writing.

There are currently no tropical cyclones in any ocean basin.

There are currently no invests in any ocean basin.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/


For whatever reason, the data didn't make it into their system so no storms appeared (there definitely were storms).
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 25/03/2018 21:39

Originally Posted By: FujiWha
Don't give up on it yet, supposedly Iris (or remnants) swings back towards the southern QLD coast then follows it up to around Mackay before dissolving...if that pans out then that coastline could get a fair bit of weather...


I posted this elsewhere this evening but it's also relevant here:


" Most models currently suggest ex-TC Iris drifting down in a general S or SSW direction into the central or southern Coral Sea by midweek, steered by a low to mid level ridge to its east and southeast... then around midweek, re-intensifying somewhat as it stalls there (possibly as a hybrid or subtropical storm as it phases with a developing upper trough)... then steered back north while weakening again (despite re-entering warmer waters & encountering weaker shear) as the upper trough relaxes & some dry air enters the system.

IF that scenario comes off, it doesn't look like there'll be much effect on the southern QLD coast except maybe for some temporary gusty winds along the more exposed parts of the coast close to around midweek and a modest increase in surf.

GFS and ACCESS-G try to develop a second low pressure centre closer to the southern QLD coast by then, causing more extensive shower activity & stronger winds but the others aren't keen on it.

Here's a multi-ensemble track spread using last night's 12z runs colour-coded by intensity where grey = extratropical, light blue = weaker than Cat 1, all other colours are the equivalent of Cat 1 or higher "


Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/03/2018 05:59

Looks like most deterministic models now eventually stunt Iris's original SE "graveyard" track and send her back up north again as a weaker system. EC takes her up the coast (though not close enough to produce much more than a few coastal showers and increased winds), crossing at Cairns as low then into the gulf. What a track, but no doubt that will change plenty of times over the next few days.
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/03/2018 07:38

With the Synoptic situation changing rapidly over the past couple of weeks (Highs moving further up the Australian Continent), one gets the feeling that the 1718 TC season may have a little bit of life left within her. All it shall take will be the right conditions aligning and two adjacent High Pressure Systems with a Low much further below the two systems (compared to what we've seen this year), and we may have the ingredients for a TC in April. Time will tell.
Posted by: Mike Hauber

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/03/2018 08:18

Originally Posted By: Mega
What a track


I had to double check to make sure i was running through the models in the right direction lol.
Posted by: ifishcq

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/03/2018 09:33

Now that the cyclone season is over, Easter is looking good for my camping trip to Stanage Bay.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/03/2018 09:46

Originally Posted By: ifishcq
Now that the cyclone season is over, Easter is looking good for my camping trip to Stanage Bay.


I wouldn't be betting on that just yet. 3 of the majors bring the remains of TC Iris back towards the coast as a rain producer including EC.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/03/2018 09:52

Quite the dog's breakfast among the various ensembles run last night (grey and light blue = equivalent of below Cat 1 intensity)


Posted by: ifishcq

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/03/2018 10:14

Its doing all it can to keep away from Qld, just like Tourists, Jobs, Education, creativity & wealth.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/03/2018 10:22

Yea, bring out the camping gear! Perfect rain magnet & guess what starts next week?
An ECL to start off the Comm. Games? Ha, now there is a rain magnet!
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/03/2018 10:49

Originally Posted By: ifishcq
Now that the cyclone season is over, Easter is looking good for my camping trip to Stanage Bay.


Cyclone season isnt over until end of April.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/03/2018 10:51

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Quite the dog's breakfast among the various ensembles run last night (grey and light blue = equivalent of below Cat 1 intensity)




Wow did a 2 yo draw that track map lol its like weee crayon everywhere lol

So basically according to that theres a chance for it to go virtually anywhere lol
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/03/2018 10:53

Hehe it's automatically generated by data from a number of models/ensembles. The general tendency on that map is for the initial southwards movement followed by either stalling/dissipation or a curve towards the NW.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/03/2018 10:55

Ec is showing it heading for just north of Ingham...just what we dont want. If its a cyclone or a TL is to be seen. Well become a cyclone again I should say.
Posted by: Chris Stumer

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/03/2018 11:09

It swings from one extreme to the other, sooner or later we will get an extremely active season in the Coral Sea.
Posted by: Locke

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/03/2018 12:31

The remnants of Iris are a disorganized mess out in the Coral Sea.

The LLCC is completely decoupled from upper level convection. Whilst GFS brings it back towards the coast it does so still as a disorganized mess.

Can't see a Iris being renamed out of any of this on the current forecast.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/03/2018 12:36

The fact that it still looks likely to temporarily re-intensify as it phases with the developing upper trough once it reaches the southern or central Coral Sea suggests it may do so as a subtropical or hybrid system rather than a textbook pure TC.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/03/2018 13:13

Looking like some potential for big waves around late Wednesday early Thursday from the remnants of Iris. (Albeit with a dose of forecast uncertainty).

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
Comm Games organisers probably not keen this close to the start of the show.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 26/03/2018 21:30

Below is an SST map with the GFS forecast path overlaid (a min of around 26.5C being the typically used benchmark for sustaining TC's), a cyclone phase diagrams from GFS (2nd image) and from a consensus of a few of the models (3rd image).
These currently suggest the system might retain a bit of a shallow warm core although it appears close to a hybrid by the time it reaches south:






Posted by: Flowin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 01:26

Sattelite imagery in various "channels" IR, zehr enhanced, water vapour all appear to show IRIS somewhat more organised? Than previous day?
Posted by: Hailin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 07:52

Hope this is okay to post here.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-27/cy...-system/9575986
Posted by: windshear

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 09:48

Originally Posted By: Hailin


I don't buy it, the current system may not be perfect, but it is a known quantity amongst laymen, who can compare current predictions against history and act accordingly. It's hard enough trying to convey technical information to the general public, never mind changing the one thing they do have some sort of grasp of. There are many other factors determining damage likely to be suffered, eg the state of tide at the time of crossing, local terrain, whether the system has been preceded by heavy rain and no doubt many others I haven't considered. I'm not convinced that any change to the classification system is anything other than an interesting academic exercise.
Posted by: cold@28

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 09:52

Originally Posted By: windshear
Originally Posted By: Hailin


I don't buy it, the current system may not be perfect, but it is a known quantity amongst laymen, who can compare current predictions against history and act accordingly. It's hard enough trying to convey technical information to the general public, never mind changing the one thing they do have some sort of grasp of. There are many other factors determining damage likely to be suffered, eg the state of tide at the time of crossing, local terrain, whether the system has been preceded by heavy rain and no doubt many others I haven't considered. I'm not convinced that any change to the classification system is anything other than an interesting academic exercise.


From my understanding,he was saying don't change anything, since people do understand it, but to add on a possible damage estimate.
Posted by: SBT

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 10:01

Yes that was my understanding as well. Just as well they didn't interview the cAGW nutter at JCU who wants to create a cat 6 for end of the world type cyclones.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 10:29

Yep

" The CDP will be used for forecasts in the United States Gulf Coast next year, but Dr Holland did not think the cyclone damage potential should replace the old categories altogether.

"In the case of the category system, it's well known, it's well established and people understand it," he said.

"I would use this as an adjunct saying 'and here is some extra information that you can compare that to'. "



Also, I don't see why the "AGW debate" has to be raised here.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 10:53

EC, GFS and Ukmet this morning are keen.

EC ensemble this morning pushes a low/cat 1 onto the coast noryh of cardwell.
Posted by: WANDJINA G'vale

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 13:10

Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
EC, GFS and Ukmet this morning are keen.

EC ensemble this morning pushes a low/cat 1 onto the coast noryh of cardwell.


Your next chase will be not far this time
Posted by: nimbuss1

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 14:47

Bom has ex TC Iris outside Cairns this Saturday on their 4 day charts now....

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
Posted by: WANDJINA G'vale

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 15:03

Early Mon morning

WindyTy
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 15:33

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea

IDQ10810
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Tuesday 27 March 2018
for the period until midnight EST Friday 30 March 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

None.
Potential Cyclones:

Ex-tropical cyclone Iris is located to the northwest of New Caledonia and is expected to continue to move southwards for the rest of today. On Wednesday, this system is forecast to stall before moving northwestwards on Thursday.

While this system has a low chance of redeveloping into a tropical cyclone, it is expected to remain offshore of the the Queensland coast for the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday:
Very low
Thursday:
Low
Friday:
Low
Posted by: Dan101

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 15:36

Latest (00z) GFS deterministic washes it out on approach to the Central Coast &Whitsundays. Much the same on the GFS 18z Ensemble. UKMET, EC and HWRF all going for more northerly solutions though (north of Townsville).

Plenty of time and changes to come yet though!
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 19:09

Lastest Ec shows 991mm for my area over the next 10 days lol floods much
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 19:37

This was the spread of tracks using the 12z run of some of the ensembles (I personally don't like using 00z runs for longer ranges since they can give some pretty dodgy results).

Still somewhat of a dog's breakfast but you can see the general trend of more members having joined that more likely scenario of that NW track since last time:


Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 19:38

The visible satellite image shows ex-Iris very clearly. Hasnít moved much in the last 12 hours.
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 20:13

No model suggesting ex tc Iris to go anywhere near SEQ so where does the intense rain around the bottom of Fraser Island on 8 day WATL come from?
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 20:22

Maybe a second low?
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 20:23

Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
No model suggesting ex tc Iris to go anywhere near SEQ so where does the intense rain around the bottom of Fraser Island on 8 day WATL come from?


I'm guessing yesterday's dodgy GFS 00 Run skewed the rainfall totals up on this Morning's WATL is the only explanation I can think of.
Posted by: marakai

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 20:28

All your Rainfall has now belong to us. smile
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 20:31

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
This was the spread of tracks using the 12z run of some of the ensembles (I personally don't like using 00z runs for longer ranges since they can give some pretty dodgy results).

Still somewhat of a dog's breakfast but you can see the general trend of more members having joined that more likely scenario of that NW track since last time:





Interesting you say that Ken. I watch the models habitually each day, and I find it interesting that the AM / PM Model runs can differ significantly day to day. It's almost as though the numerous variables which are influenced by Sunlight / Solar Irradiation are being reflected within subsequent Model runs.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 20:36

Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Lastest Ec shows 991mm for my area over the next 10 days lol floods much


Was that this morning's run though? Tonight's EC run has Ex-Iris not crossing the coast just sitting off the far north coast.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 20:43

Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Lastest Ec shows 991mm for my area over the next 10 days lol floods much


Was that this morning's run though? Tonight's EC run has Ex-Iris not crossing the coast just sitting off the far north coast.


Latest one on Windy
Posted by: Steve O

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 20:47

That ridge that builds through Aus and becomes the main upper level pattern goes from east to west it moves around it is strange there must be no jet streak perhaos a cut off high. No idea what to make of it just to steer ex-tc Iris NW that will be interesting to watch this track.
Posted by: Squeako_88

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 21:00

Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Lastest Ec shows 991mm for my area over the next 10 days lol floods much


Was that this morning's run though? Tonight's EC run has Ex-Iris not crossing the coast just sitting off the far north coast.


Latest one on Windy


Windy is a good site. The problem with windy that there is a big delay time between updates with the other weather sites this is a problem for me so I don't use it.

The latest EC doesn't have it crossing the coast so the far north regions are forecast to have 50-100mm mostly closer to the coast.
Posted by: Simmo FNQ

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 21:19

Yeah latest EC considerably lower falls

Posted by: slipperyfish

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 21:43

They could be even lower tomorrow. Then again they certainly werenít as high during their forcasts for this last few days either.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 22:10

Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
No model suggesting ex tc Iris to go anywhere near SEQ so where does the intense rain around the bottom of Fraser Island on 8 day WATL come from?


I'm guessing yesterday's dodgy GFS 00 Run skewed the rainfall totals up on this Morning's WATL is the only explanation I can think of.


From memory, CMC has been a huge outlier in bringing it and heavy rain into SE QLD so that model may have been skewing those WATL totals up in this region. I havenít double checked to see if this really is the case though.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 22:25

Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
This was the spread of tracks using the 12z run of some of the ensembles (I personally don't like using 00z runs for longer ranges since they can give some pretty dodgy results).

Still somewhat of a dog's breakfast but you can see the general trend of more members having joined that more likely scenario of that NW track since last time:





Interesting you say that Ken. I watch the models habitually each day, and I find it interesting that the AM / PM Model runs can differ significantly day to day. It's almost as though the numerous variables which are influenced by Sunlight / Solar Irradiation are being reflected within subsequent Model runs.


Nah doubt itís much to do with the sunlight/solar irradiation because thatís explicitly input into models and the same phenomenon is apparent no matter what the timezone.
My suspicion over the years is that it may have something to do with the different proportions of conventional obs data vs satellite data that goes into different runs.

I still remember this classic example from some years ago when the runs of various models were doing complete reversals of a TCís forecast track near the southern Coral Sea... the 00z runs would send it one direction and the 12z runs were sending it in the opposite direction, day after day. It was a classic bifurcation scenario with a TC where the steering influences and their timing were on a knifeís edge. Eventually the 12z runs won out.
But itís not always the case. e.g. sometimes the 00z runs will win out (especially if theyíre the most event run when it comes to short range forecasts).
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 22:58

Oh and objective skill score stats for models like EC also often show the slightly lower skill of the 00z runs at longer ranges in the Southern Hemisphere. Have also noticed when say 00z EC runs sometimes put excessively widespread snowfall on the SE QLD/NE NSW highlands while the 12z runs tone it down.

But like I said, itís not always the case and the 00z runs sometimes win out.
Posted by: Hagrid

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 27/03/2018 23:07

Thanks Ken.
Posted by: marakai

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/03/2018 02:31

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
This was the spread of tracks using the 12z run of some of the ensembles (I personally don't like using 00z runs for longer ranges since they can give some pretty dodgy results).

Still somewhat of a dog's breakfast but you can see the general trend of more members having joined that more likely scenario of that NW track since last time:





Interesting you say that Ken. I watch the models habitually each day, and I find it interesting that the AM / PM Model runs can differ significantly day to day. It's almost as though the numerous variables which are influenced by Sunlight / Solar Irradiation are being reflected within subsequent Model runs.


Nah doubt itís much to do with the sunlight/solar irradiation because thatís explicitly input into models and the same phenomenon is apparent no matter what the timezone.
My suspicion over the years is that it may have something to do with the different proportions of conventional obs data vs satellite data that goes into different runs.

I still remember this classic example from some years ago when the runs of various models were doing complete reversals of a TCís forecast track near the southern Coral Sea... the 00z runs would send it one direction and the 12z runs were sending it in the opposite direction, day after day. It was a classic bifurcation scenario with a TC where the steering influences and their timing were on a knifeís edge. Eventually the 12z runs won out.
But itís not always the case. e.g. sometimes the 00z runs will win out (especially if theyíre the most event run when it comes to short range forecasts).

That's a really interesting anecdote Ken, have they resolved this bifurcation of the different model runs or as you mention are they still evident with some models today ? Also could you break the effect down into laymans terms for us with the different steering effects, was it like a ridge here or there was several hours late or early on a model run or in reality, that made all the difference between the models?
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/03/2018 05:13

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
This was the spread of tracks using the 12z run of some of the ensembles (I personally don't like using 00z runs for longer ranges since they can give some pretty dodgy results).

Still somewhat of a dog's breakfast but you can see the general trend of more members having joined that more likely scenario of that NW track since last time:





Interesting you say that Ken. I watch the models habitually each day, and I find it interesting that the AM / PM Model runs can differ significantly day to day. It's almost as though the numerous variables which are influenced by Sunlight / Solar Irradiation are being reflected within subsequent Model runs.


Nah doubt itís much to do with the sunlight/solar irradiation because thatís explicitly input into models and the same phenomenon is apparent no matter what the timezone.
My suspicion over the years is that it may have something to do with the different proportions of conventional obs data vs satellite data that goes into different runs.

I still remember this classic example from some years ago when the runs of various models were doing complete reversals of a TCís forecast track near the southern Coral Sea... the 00z runs would send it one direction and the 12z runs were sending it in the opposite direction, day after day. It was a classic bifurcation scenario with a TC where the steering influences and their timing were on a knifeís edge. Eventually the 12z runs won out.
But itís not always the case. e.g. sometimes the 00z runs will win out (especially if theyíre the most event run when it comes to short range forecasts).



Ah, got it. That makes sense given they're explicit inputs. As you say, some of the steering influences and timings can be on a knifes edge so that would likely win out particularly as Model confidence grew nearer to the time period under analysis. Thanks for that Ken. smile
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/03/2018 08:40

Windy went from 93mm last night to over 300mm this morning for the 10 day run lol
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/03/2018 08:50

Good example of the importance of looking at a range of models rather than just EC or any other single model as well as considering the general synoptic setup and any associated uncertainty.

These are the accumulating/running forecast totals for your location from a range of models including EC, GFS, ACCESS, etc:


Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/03/2018 10:00

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Good example of the importance of looking at a range of models rather than just EC or any other single model as well as considering the general synoptic setup and any associated uncertainty.

These are the accumulating/running forecast totals for your location from a range of models including EC, GFS, ACCESS, etc:




Oh I know. Just amused me at the difference. 991mm/93mm/300mm from 3 different runs
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/03/2018 12:55

Originally Posted By: marakai
That's a really interesting anecdote Ken, have they resolved this bifurcation of the different model runs or as you mention are they still evident with some models today ? Also could you break the effect down into laymans terms for us with the different steering effects, was it like a ridge here or there was several hours late or early on a model run or in reality, that made all the difference between the models?

Sorry I should've made myself clearer. Within the context of my post when I said bifurcation, I mean the behaviour of forecast tracks using one set of runs where a significant proportion make a TC head one way while another signification proportion make it head in a completely different direction using the same runs. This phenomenon will always happen from time to time when the steering influences are finely balanced and simply reflects how the setup is conducive to things easily going either way, and is difficult to forecast for regardless of whether you use manual techniques, models or both.

I can't remember what the exact synoptic setup was at the time of that TC but it was obvious that the steering influences, their timings, or the TC's intensity were balanced on a knife's edge. The flip-flops between the 00z and 12z runs were amazing.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/03/2018 13:15

Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Ah, got it. That makes sense given they're explicit inputs. As you say, some of the steering influences and timings can be on a knifes edge so that would likely win out particularly as Model confidence grew nearer to the time period under analysis. Thanks for that Ken. smile

I should also emphasize the fact that at shorter ranges (and also when uncertainty is low), the most recent run/s are usually the most accurate.

But at longer ranges (e.g. several days) for certain setups that have higher uncertainty, I've noticed over the years that the recency of the model run can often be overshadowed by a particular bias that a particular run (00z vs 12z) has for a particular scenario. Even though objective skill scores show that the average trend is for skill to decrease reasonably smoothly with forecast lead time out to 7 to 10 days (which is what you'd naturally expect), I believe there are certain scenarios at long range where the behaviour of the run overshadows how recent the run is (i.e. at short range, the 12hr difference between a 00z run and a previous 12z run makes a big difference but at long range, that same 12hr difference can be overshadowed by the uncertainty of the setup).
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/03/2018 13:16

Even better consensus now on ex-Iris's strengthening of its winds on its southern flank as it pushes down into the ridge, then getting steered NW by the low to mid level ridge axis to its southwest and south.
Among the majority of the models to support this is the experimental FV3 (the next successor to the existing GFS).

Where the models still differ is 1) if they bring it onto the northern or central QLD coast, or it stays out to sea and 2) for the ones that do bring it onto the coast up north, how much rainfall it'll cause up there.

This is another good example of why it's often not a good idea to always assume/hope that some tropical system will always come down and make a direct impact on us here in SE QLD/NE NSW. It's often pretty hard for everything to line up to allow them to make it down here.

Here's the latest ensemble tracks/intensities from the EC/UK/CMC ensembles and deterministic versions via NOAA:

Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/03/2018 14:29

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Even better consensus now on ex-Iris's strengthening of its winds on its southern flank as it pushes down into the ridge, then getting steered NW by the low to mid level ridge axis to its southwest and south.
Among the majority of the models to support this is the experimental FV3 (the next successor to the existing GFS).

Where the models still differ is 1) if they bring it onto the northern or central QLD coast, or it stays out to sea and 2) for the ones that do bring it onto the coast up north, how much rainfall it'll cause up there.

This is another good example of why it's often not a good idea to always assume/hope that some tropical system will always come down and make a direct impact on us here in SE QLD/NE NSW. It's often pretty hard for everything to line up to allow them to make it down here.

Here's the latest ensemble tracks/intensities from the EC/UK/CMC ensembles and deterministic versions via NOAA:



Awesome info as usual. So the most likely scenerio is that Low will hit the north coast if Im reading correctly....se3ms most tracks place it somewhere north of Mackay.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/03/2018 14:32

I wouldn't go as far as saying that's the most likely scenario yet.

There's high confidence about the system heading roughly NW but after that, whether it comes ashore as anything significant or stays out to sea is still unclear.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/03/2018 14:35

At this stage its the likely track, but we all deffo know things change. Shes looking very much like a subtropical low on tge visible.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/03/2018 14:39

God I need to log on lappy and grab updated monthly rainfall its twice what I have on here now. I do that later
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/03/2018 15:53

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 28 March 2018
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 31 March 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

None.
Potential Cyclones:

Ex-tropical cyclone Iris is located to the west of New Caledonia in the Coral Sea. This system is forecast to move northwestwards on Thursday and remain a sub-tropical low. This system is expected to develop further from Friday and is rated as a low chance of redeveloping into a tropical cyclone. It is expected to remain offshore of the Queensland coast for the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday:
Very low
Friday:
Low
Saturday:
Low
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/03/2018 15:58

Not too often you see a TC transition to a subtropical low then back again. Will be cool to watch.
Posted by: marakai

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/03/2018 17:24

Thanks for the info Ken, much appreciated.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/03/2018 17:57

nice model info ken, thanks.
friends, family keep asking me about this system, what will it do, where will it go, will we get more rain?
my only reply at the moment is - this system has to travel 1000km in right direction then plant itself in the exact right spot. the odds are small, and the models have not been at their best this season.
BOM are still keen on it getting closer and crossing the coast moving WNW. GFS this afternoon is not keen, other models have not updated yet.
Posted by: Cybermouse

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/03/2018 18:45

Originally Posted By: Mega
Not too often you see a TC transition to a subtropical low then back again. Will be cool to watch.


Also to see a low or system track north west. Not the usual tracking for systems in the coral sea.
Posted by: Dan101

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/03/2018 19:00

EC's 00z run has it doing loop-the-loops off the NQ/CQ coast for a week between Friday 20th March and Saturday 7th April. Looks like a weakening of the ridge over central Aus before a short wave trough passes through from west to east, and then another ridge appears to build from the eastern Coral Sea. So many competing steering influences at play as usual, typical Coral Sea!
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/03/2018 19:39

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Ah, got it. That makes sense given they're explicit inputs. As you say, some of the steering influences and timings can be on a knifes edge so that would likely win out particularly as Model confidence grew nearer to the time period under analysis. Thanks for that Ken. smile

I should also emphasize the fact that at shorter ranges (and also when uncertainty is low), the most recent run/s are usually the most accurate.

But at longer ranges (e.g. several days) for certain setups that have higher uncertainty, I've noticed over the years that the recency of the model run can often be overshadowed by a particular bias that a particular run (00z vs 12z) has for a particular scenario. Even though objective skill scores show that the average trend is for skill to decrease reasonably smoothly with forecast lead time out to 7 to 10 days (which is what you'd naturally expect), I believe there are certain scenarios at long range where the behaviour of the run overshadows how recent the run is (i.e. at short range, the 12hr difference between a 00z run and a previous 12z run makes a big difference but at long range, that same 12hr difference can be overshadowed by the uncertainty of the setup).



Thanks for that Ken. Really appreciate the technical knowledge being shared re Modelling.
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/03/2018 20:00

Tony Auden - 'if anyone says they know what's going to happen with this system, they are lying'. So true, after looking at tonight's runs.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/03/2018 20:01

Yep exactly.
Posted by: Red Watch

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/03/2018 22:02

Originally Posted By: Cybermouse
Originally Posted By: Mega
Not too often you see a TC transition to a subtropical low then back again. Will be cool to watch.


Also to see a low or system track north west. Not the usual tracking for systems in the coral sea.

Cyclone Hamish was one exception but died tracking over its own path.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/hamish09.shtml
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 29/03/2018 02:09

Im with Tony Audin, every model is changing, every models seems different. not going to even bother checking them from here on in. what will play out will play out.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 29/03/2018 08:03

Models for 12Z 28 March now appear to be showing good alignment at least for the next 48 hours.

http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/..._track_late.png
Posted by: Ronfishes

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 29/03/2018 08:42

Crossing vs not crossing = 2 completely different scenarios in my eyes.
Posted by: Stephen

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 29/03/2018 08:44

Originally Posted By: Flowin
Models for 12Z 28 March now appear to be showing good alignment at least for the next 48 hours.

http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/..._track_late.png



The models were always showing good alignment for the next 48 hours for the ex TC to move north west. It is after that time frame which they really differ in terms of making landfall or staying out to sea.
Posted by: Flowin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 29/03/2018 08:57

Agree with that. At least the models are more aligned for the next 48 hours, compared to the spaghetti tangle a few days ago. Agree also beyond 48 hours a lot of variance.
Posted by: Red Watch

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 29/03/2018 15:13

It appears to be taking in some dry air, and this system will exhibit subtropical characteristics according to JTWC.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 17P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 19.5S 158.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.6S 159.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED AND SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DISTINCT LOW LEVEL BANDING AND
FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 272252Z ASCAT
PARTIAL PASS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL TURN ABRUPTLY AND TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, MOST SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING
ALOFT LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR REINTENSIFICATION, BUT WILL EXHIBIT
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 29/03/2018 18:05

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Thursday 29 March 2018
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 1 April 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Potential Cyclones:

At 1:30pm EST Thursday, ex-tropical cyclone Iris was located near latitude 21.7 degrees south, longitude 155.5 degrees east, about 640 km east of Mackay. The low is currently moving northwest at about 30 km/h.

The system is likely to continue its northwestward movement for another 24 hours, and then become slow moving on Saturday and Sunday. On Sunday night and/or Monday, it may begin to move closer to the tropical or central Queensland coast.

Conditions are generally not favourable for tropical cyclone development through this period, and the system is most likely to remain as a subtropical low. The probability of it developing into a tropical cyclone is rated as low.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday:Very low
Saturday:Low
Sunday:Low
Posted by: Flowin

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 29/03/2018 20:27

We have an interesting situation at present.
Notable TC activity across Aus tropics in recent weeks mostly at sea, or for WA the whole season a magnet for TC enthusiasts.
Activity around coral sea again at play or should I say "continuing IRIS", but vagueness on landfall probability and location.
Not a good situation to ignore, and similarly not a good situation to expect anything will be certain.
Weather variability at its best?
Posted by: MareebaWeather

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 29/03/2018 22:02

Posted by: Dan101

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 29/03/2018 23:35

Still much uncertainty from about 48hrs onwards, however can't deny models are showing some signs of agreement. HWRF and UKMET the outliers in this multi-model plot.



If she can escape that dry air that she's currently gulping once she pushes further NW, all she has to deal with then is the increasing vertical wind shear which is currently forecasted by models... crazy

Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 07:20

Originally Posted By: Dan101
Still much uncertainty from about 48hrs onwards, however can't deny models are showing some signs of agreement. HWRF and UKMET the outliers in this multi-model plot.



If she can escape that dry air that she's currently gulping once she pushes further NW, all she has to deal with then is the increasing vertical wind shear which is currently forecasted by models... crazy





Hey Dan. Any chance you could share the links to the 2 illustrations shared ? Thanks.
Posted by: bbowen

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 07:54

Sorry to but in MangroveJack70 This is the link. http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/current/
Click on the system of intrest and then the late cycle guidance.
Posted by: Dan101

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 09:15

Originally Posted By: bbowen
Sorry to but in MangroveJack70 This is the link. http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/current/
Click on the system of intrest and then the late cycle guidance.


Butt away! smile

And the total precipitator water loop is here: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mt...4hrs&anim=html5
Posted by: bbowen

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 09:25

Thanks Dan101 for the link.
Posted by: ozone doug

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 10:01

Thanks for the links everyone .
Posted by: Red Watch

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 10:07

Thanks Dan I have been looking for that first one for awhile.
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 10:12

Here's hoping the last CMC run doesn't verify.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...018032912&fh=12
Posted by: Red Watch

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 10:13

It can stay as a subtropical low if it is to come here, the area is soaked and even a cat 1 would bring a lot of trees down.
Posted by: Red Watch

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 10:20

If EC comes off Mackay will have major flooding.
Posted by: Red Watch

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 10:24

Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Here's hoping the last CMC run doesn't verify.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...018032912&fh=12

Yea south of Townsville to Brisbane will be a washout with possible tornadoes.
Posted by: ifishcq

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 12:08

Time to stock up with bread & milk people, lol 😂
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 12:31

The low is currently 735km East of Townsville on the animated sat image, heading NW.
Posted by: DarrylS

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 12:34

Originally Posted By: Red Watch
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Here's hoping the last CMC run doesn't verify.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...018032912&fh=12

Yea south of Townsville to Brisbane will be a washout with possible tornadoes.


That would make for a very wet start to the Commonwealth Games next week.
Posted by: Dan101

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 12:57

Just noticed a typo in my earlier post, should have said precipitable water 😆 iPhone auto correct!
Posted by: Kowree

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 13:04

Dumb(?) question alert.
I have been watching the now ex Cyclone Iris for over a week now on earth.nullschool.net and since Monday have been writing down the coordinates and wondering what the degree number is at the end of the lat/long two coordinates.
For example - at the moment - 11.58am, it says
19.05S, 154.27E - got that but then it says - 285% @ 1kph.(the little O on top - I haven't got a button for that)
So, what does the 285 number represent?
Have tried googling it but no success.
So, at 7.30 this morning it was at 19.08 lat & 154.54 long, so it has moved a bit.
Posted by: Mad Elf #1.5

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 13:15

Seems to me its 285' (degrees).
270' is due West, 285' is slightly north of west. If you have a compass you can see the headings in degrees, eg. 90' is East, 180' is South. Hope this helps & is what you looking for.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 13:47

Yep Mad Elf is correct, it's the wind direction in degrees at the point you selected.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 13:54

Doesn't look like a tropical low anymore, its an upper low, you only have to look at the water vapour sat loop which confirms it.

How this effects the track forecast I don't know
Posted by: Kowree

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 14:25

Aha, thank you Mad Elf and Ken Cato, that makes sense, so it all depends where you click onto the lines as to where the direction is heading at that point in location, which I don't really need to know.
It seems to be moving nearly due north now.
Used to be the Comms CFA person back home and as we had a weather station in town, used my protracter, ruler, CFA map book etc to see where the lightning had struck with a default to my location. Handy primitive instruments.
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 16:05

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Friday 30 March 2018
for the period until midnight EST Monday 2 April 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Potential Cyclones:

At 1:30pm EST Friday, ex-tropical cyclone Iris was located near latitude 18.8 degrees south, longitude 153.7 degrees east, about 540 km east-northeast of Mackay. The low is currently moving northwest at about 15 km/h.

The system is likely to continue its northwestward movement for another 24 hours, and then become slow moving later on Saturday. On Sunday and Monday, it is expected to move closer to the tropical or central Queensland coast.

Conditions are generally not favourable for tropical cyclone development through this period, and the system is most likely to remain as a subtropical low. The probability of it developing into a tropical cyclone is rated as low.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday:Low
Sunday:Low
Monday:Low
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 16:55

Originally Posted By: DarrylS
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Here's hoping the last CMC run doesn't verify.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...018032912&fh=12

Yea south of Townsville to Brisbane will be a washout with possible tornadoes.


That would make for a very wet start to the Commonwealth Games next week.


It hasn't deviated much in its last run either. It could get interesting. Especially for the Mackay region. If it verified of course.
Posted by: dormant

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 18:20

Looks like it's on it's way to Moore Park Beach...
Posted by: Red Watch

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 19:44

Shear is increasing, 30 knots at the moment and forecast to rise by 20 knots.
Posted by: snowmad

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 19:45

Well its still a bit interesting the LLCC moving into a little bit better area with some tropical moisture trying to wrap into the centre of the system of lates water vapour loop images. If the high can wriggle off and the tropical moisture to its north and east get more into the LLCC could do something. Shear looks ok for next day but then could become problematic going to be fun one to watch has potential and one of those systems that could have been so much more if things had just lined up.
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 20:08

Originally Posted By: Dan101
Originally Posted By: bbowen
Sorry to but in MangroveJack70 This is the link. http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/current/
Click on the system of intrest and then the late cycle guidance.


Butt away! smile

And the total precipitator water loop is here: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mt...4hrs&anim=html5



Thanks Dan. Much appreciated.
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 20:09

Originally Posted By: Dan101
Just noticed a typo in my earlier post, should have said precipitable water 😆 iPhone auto correct!



smile
Posted by: Dan101

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 30/03/2018 23:44

Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70

Thanks Dan. Much appreciated.

Sharing is caring wink smile
Posted by: slipperyfish

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 07:46

Will be interesting to see if old Iris draws in some of that moisture from the Solomons?
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 07:55

Currently 580km East of Cairns, still moving toward the NW.
Posted by: drivenunder

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 08:15

If its East of Cairns, and moving NW, does that mean areas south of TSV or even Cairns could miss out on rain?
Posted by: slipperyfish

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 08:30

The rain will be on the southern side.

It is still moving north west but well off the coast.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 09:15

Can see the centre quite clearly on the Willis Is radar (the Low is about 120km East of it).

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR412.loop.shtml
Posted by: snowmad

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 09:27

Very clear just need that shear not to be over it and the moisture to feed in and might have a chance. Notice model ensemble runs this morning the majority have it deepening slightly to btw 992-997HPA and costal crossing btw Innisfail and Mackay.

Might make it to a marginal Cat 1 but could have been so more if things had just lined up better. Still be a bit of wind and some good rain if you are in the right spot
Posted by: snowmad

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 09:39

24 hours ago shear was perfect where system now located but dry air was present in large amount. Now on the water vapour loop you can see the whole coral sea filling with saturated air from the solomons and the pockets of dry air being pushed out.

But shear increasing and you can see on visible sat loop every time storms get kicking off around the LLCC they are torn away by the shear to the SE of the system.

Any ideas on shear dropping off in next 24hrs might have a shot of deepening the system then.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 09:46

This might give you a rough idea...


Posted by: snowmad

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 09:52

Thanks small window maybe but looks marginal for RH
Posted by: Mega

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 11:16

This might help explain it a bit better:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 17P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 154.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 151.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301718Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL IMAGE
SHOW A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS REPORT WINDS IN THE 25-30
KT RANGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS COMPETING
WITH OUTFLOW TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, LIMITING CONVECTION. WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) ARE SUPPORTIVE. THE SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS SUBTROPICAL DUE TO ITS EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER, AND AN AMSU RADIAL CROSS-SECTION DEPICTING
A COLD ANOMALY ALOFT.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE REMNANTS OF 17P
WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE MAINTAINING
NEAR-GALE FORCE WIND SPEEDS OR SLIGHTLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
Posted by: Davey440

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 11:38

Are models no longer supporting the low turning back towards the South West??
Posted by: Snapper22lb

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 11:47

Bureau mentions it in forecasts and interviews. Not really sure where it goes.
Posted by: nimbuss1

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 13:25

Yep, shear doesn't look good for old Iris......

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 13:50

Originally Posted By: Davey440
Are models no longer supporting the low turning back towards the South West??


Most models push it West (or SW) towards the coast, then take it it back out into the CS. Just a matter of whether it actually crosses the coastline, or it starts to move back out before that happens. EC has it approaching the coast, before moving it SSE parallel to the coast, and then also takes it back out to the CS.
Posted by: marakai

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 14:36

It's looking quite orderly on the Willis Ilse Radar, anyone been keep note of it's recent track out there ?
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 14:49

For the record:

Flood Watch for coastal catchments between Cairns and Burnett Heads
Issued at 12:12 pm EST on Saturday 31 March 2018

Flood Watch Number: 3

River level rises and areas of potentially significant flooding are likely to develop over parts of the Flood Watch area from Monday.

A tropical low (ex-tropical cyclone Iris) currently in the Coral Sea is expected to approach the coast over the weekend.

Areas of heavy rainfall are likely to develop over parts of the Flood Watch area from late Sunday through to Wednesday. The location of the heaviest rainfall remains uncertain and is dependent on the movement of the low. Further updates will be provided over the Easter weekend as more information becomes available.

Any significant rainfall is likely to cause river level rises above the minor flood level and local flooding from Monday. Moderate to major flooding is possible next week, particularly in the North Tropical Coast catchments that have had significant rainfall and flooding over the past few weeks.

Catchments that have received recent rainfall are expected to respond quickly, particularly those on the North Tropical Coast.

Catchments which may be affected include:

Mulgrave and Russell Rivers
Johnstone River
Tully River
Murray River
Herbert River
Black River
Ross and Bohle Rivers
Haughton River
Burdekin River downstream of Burdekin Falls Dam
Don and Proserpine Rivers
Pioneer River
Connors, Isaac and Styx Rivers and Plane Creek
Mackenzie and Fitzroy Rivers and Shoalwater and Water Park Creeks
Calliope River
Boyne River
Baffle Creek
Kolan River

See www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings to view the current flood warnings for Queensland.

For more information on the Flood Watch Service: http://www.bom.gov.au/water/floods/floodWarningServices.shtml
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 14:51

Recent track with estimated position as at 10am this morning (circled):


Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 15:02

00Z run of GFS has it crossing the coast as a Cat 1 near Innisfail.
Posted by: FNQMick

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 15:21

Soooo time for a newbie question? I thought that this bloody thing was supposed to cross way south of use up here in Cairns (well that's the impression I got last night on the C7 weather) and that Mackay would get the bulk of the rain.
Would it now be safe to say that camping at Kurramine Beach next Wednesday is now looking damp?

Cheers
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 15:26

The scenarios re crossing vs no crossing have been divided for many days, and still are.

This system could eventually go down as one of the most unpredictable and longest lived ones in the Coral Sea in years (much of it as an ex-TC) if it followed the "staying out to sea" scenarios. But if it crossed early, its lifespan will be shorter.

Trying to predict where it'll go, how strong or weak it'll be, whether some parts of the QLD coast will get flooding rain & gales or just some showers, etc is like throwing darts at a dartboard at the moment due to the competing steering influences over time.
Posted by: Tailwind

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 15:32

Just a quickie - the longer it stays out at sea and heading in a north direction, does this mean it has a greater probability of intensifying? Not 100% certain what the factors are that will strengthen vs weaken this system based on the current data (let alone track it).
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 15:42

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:41 pm EST on Saturday 31 March 2018
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 3 April 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Potential Cyclones:

At 2:00pm EST Saturday, ex-tropical cyclone Iris was located near latitude 15.8 degrees south, longitude 150.4 degrees east, about 540 km northeast of Townsville. The low is currently moving northwest at about 15 km/h.

The system is likely to slow in its forward motion and become near stationary by late today. On Sunday and Monday, it is expected to move closer to the tropical or central Queensland coast.

Conditions are generally not favourable for tropical cyclone development through this period, and the system is most likely to remain as a subtropical low. The probability of it developing into a tropical cyclone is rated as low.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday:Low
Monday:Low
Tuesday:Low
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 15:51

If this cyclone does make landfall there's going to be a lot of rain. I think that's about the only certainty.

Should we have a separate topic for Iris?
Posted by: Dan101

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 15:51

Originally Posted By: Tailwind
Just a quickie - the longer it stays out at sea and heading in a north direction, does this mean it has a greater probability of intensifying? Not 100% certain what the factors are that will strengthen vs weaken this system based on the current data (let alone track it).


The greatest factor that will limit intensification for this system after today is wind shear. Currently it is actually not in a bad shear environment but just to its west (where it is headed) is a sharply increasing vertical wind shear. At present, moisture levels are still not quite there to fully support intensification.

Wind shear into the future is also not looking great, but depends which model you look at. It appears there will be some very localised areas of high vertical shear, so depends where the system tracks as to what shear it will encounter.

Intensity is also a big factor in where the system will track. A deeper system will track towards the SW/S/SE, whereas a weak shallow system will track more W.

Fun times ahead for real-life forecasters smile

Current shear c/o CIMSS http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

The system is located about where the red 'I' is.

Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 16:49

530km East of Cooktown, still moving towards the NW.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 16:51

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
If this cyclone does make landfall there's going to be a lot of rain. I think that's about the only certainty.

Should we have a separate topic for Iris?


I've been thinking that myself - I guess one will be opened when/if specific warnings are issued for the coast.
Posted by: Locke

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 17:48

Convection looks to have been increasing around ex-Iris throughout the day and the water vapour loop looks a hell of a lot more beneficial for cyclone development than it did a day or so ago.

I find it difficult to believe this won't make TC status again. Whilst shear is a problem to its West it will be less of a problem if ex-Iris strengthens and starts to travel on a more Southerly track in the direction of the higher level winds.

The centre or ex-Iris passed about 50km to the North of Willis Island today with max sustained winds of around 30knts and central pressure of 998.5. Had the centre passed over or closer, presumably the pressure and maximum sustained wind speed would have been higher. This can't be too far away from TC status.

I think the next 24hrs will be interesting and it wouldn't surprise me to see a cyclone watch go up by this time tomorrow.
Posted by: Steamy

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 18:16

Last couple of EC runs have it intensifying as it approaches the coast.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 18:54

Thunderstorm activity has really exploded around ex-Iris's iris (hehe) in the last hour or so.
Posted by: Tailwind

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 18:56

Thank you Dan101. Is there a possibility that due to it being a slower mover it may develop into a tropical low and just sit off the coast somewhere pumping rain or is it to early to say?
Posted by: Locke

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 19:01

Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Thunderstorm activity has really exploded around ex-Iris's iris (hehe) in the last hour or so.


The Willis Island radar loop picked it up well.
Posted by: nimbuss1

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 19:09

Yeh she's starting to bomb.....sat pics...
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite/qld
Posted by: nimbuss1

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 19:25

last 3 frames look good......

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
Posted by: BrisWeatherNerd

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 19:30

Looks nice on the radar. I think it will end up coming between Townsville and the Whitsunday Coast region, hover along the coast down towards about Broad Sound and then move back out SE past Sandy Cape into the Tasman Sea off to NZ's North Island.
Posted by: WANDJINA G'vale

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 21:39

Pic of the very distant massive clouds of Ex TC Iris as viewed from Yarrabah


Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 21:55

Awesome pic!!
Posted by: nimbuss1

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 21:58

Nice photo WG...
That must be the outer rain band of Iris? bout 50km out?
Going by the 128 radar...
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR193.loop.shtml#skip
Posted by: WANDJINA G'vale

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 22:00

Originally Posted By: nimbuss1
Nice photo WG...
That must be the outer rain band of Iris? bout 50km out?
Going by the 128 radar...
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR193.loop.shtml#skip


Correct - it was
Posted by: Dan101

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 22:15

Originally Posted By: Tailwind
Thank you Dan101. Is there a possibility that due to it being a slower mover it may develop into a tropical low and just sit off the coast somewhere pumping rain or is it to early to say?


No worries! There is definitely the possibility for that but still too early to say whether that will or wonít happen. I donít think we will know until probably a day before it happens (or doesnít), maybe even less. Itís such a see-saw situation, models are still all over the place!

Just my thoughts.
Posted by: MangroveJack70

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 22:22

Originally Posted By: WANDJINA G'vale
Pic of the very distant massive clouds of Ex TC Iris as viewed from Yarrabah





That's wicked !
Posted by: Nature's Fury

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 22:23

Great photo!

Latest GFS has the cyclone surviving for the next 2 weeks doing a full circuit of the CS and glancing the mid-northern coast of NSW before heading south into the Tasman. Would be extraordinary if that came off.
Posted by: JIGGA

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 22:34

She is doing her best Nautilus impression via Willis Island radar
Posted by: nimbuss1

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 31/03/2018 23:50

50 bucks she's an NZ fizza!
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 00:12

Last NAVGEM would empty supermarkets right down the central coast smile

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...018033106&fh=18
Posted by: marakai

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 00:26

Originally Posted By: nimbuss1
50 bucks she's an NZ fizza!
I'll take that bet nimbuss1
West to Port Douglas/ Daintree, slowly south over two or three days down the coastline, then off to wander the CS for a week or two before eventually heading off to the grave yard.
Posted by: ifishcq

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 00:30

Originally Posted By: marakai
Originally Posted By: nimbuss1
50 bucks she's an NZ fizza!
I'll take that bet nimbuss1
West to Port Douglas/ Daintree, slowly south over two or three days down the coastline, then off to wander the CS for a week or two before eventually heading off to the grave yard.


Iíll back a non result and heading to NZ
Posted by: ColdFront

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 00:34

Originally Posted By: ifishcq


Iíll back a non result and heading to NZ


That's a good result. Bring on Winter, we've had enough rain .
Posted by: White Squall

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 00:55

Cat 1 crossing between St Lawrence and Shoal water bay on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Posted by: ifishcq

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 01:06

Originally Posted By: White Squall
Cat 1 crossing between St Lawrence and Shoal water bay on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.


Disagree, sub tropical low crossing near Cardwell
Posted by: marakai

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 01:11

Look's to be more westerly than NW movement on radar over the last few hours.
Posted by: Wrasse42

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 01:32

Started to move south now by the looks
Posted by: WANDJINA G'vale

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 05:21

East of Cooktown - sure went north along way
Posted by: snowmad

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 06:56

Looking much healthier this morning and commenced southward motion. Gusts to 45knots on Flinders Reef.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 06:58

Originally Posted By: Wrasse42
Started to move south now by the looks


Not according to the radar, although she has become slow moving (as forecast).
Posted by: breezy04

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 06:58

Bom has upgraded the chance of reformation on Tuesday to moderate.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 07:01

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 5:08 am EST on Sunday 1 April 2018
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 3 April 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.

Potential Cyclones:

At 5:00am EST Sunday, ex-tropical cyclone Iris was located near latitude 15.1 degrees south, longitude 149.5 degrees east, about 450 km east-northeast of Cairns. The low is currently moving northwest at about 5 km/h.

The system is likely to remain slow moving for much of today before adopting a more southwesterly track and moving closer to the tropical or central Queensland coast on Monday and Tuesday.

The system is expected to remain a subtropical low until Tuesday, when the system moves into a more favourable environment and the chance of further development increases to moderate.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday:Very low
Monday:Low
Tuesday:Moderate
Posted by: snowmad

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 07:02

Interesting this morning models runs all deepen the system to at least cat 1/2
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 07:50

Yes, and the JTWC has become interested in its recent development as well:

Quote:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 17P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 150.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 149.6E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 311159Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE SHOW A FULLY EXPOSED, WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH LIMITED FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE PERIPHERY IN THE NORTH.
A 311200Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF 20 KT WINDS ENCIRCLING THE DISTURBANCE, AND PATCHES OF 25 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH LIMITED DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH SUPPRESSING CONVECTION, AND MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-30 KNOTS). HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) ARE WARM. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS SUBTROPICAL DUE TO ITS EXPANSIVE BUT CONTRACTING WIND FIELD AND AN AMSU RADIAL CROSS-SECTION DEPICTING A COLD OVER WARM OVER COLD ANOMALY PATTERN. HOWEVER, THE TOTAL RECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER RECENT HOURS IN THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE, WHICH COULD BE INDICATIVE OF INCREASING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IN THE NEAR TERM, GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE REMNANTS OF 17P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER, AFTER SEVERAL DAYS, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE; SOME DEPICT MODERATE DEVELOPMENT IN LATER TAUS, WHILE OTHER MODELS MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AROUND 34 KTS OF WIND SPEED. ADDITIONALLY, A COMPLICATED STEERING ENVIRONMENT MAKES THE PREDICTED DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT UNCLEAR AFTER SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
Posted by: Tempest

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 07:53

Very interesting IW, two days ago I thought it had no chance, heavy showers atm here in the nth beaches of Mackay, its going to be along week.
Posted by: ifishcq

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 08:28

It will miss qld though, just go around and disappear
Posted by: LonglifeMilk

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 08:40

Ummm - question.....BOM says will track south west....JTWC says south east?? Anybody know - is this a typo?
Posted by: Mick10

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 09:21

for those who want rain, you want the system to remain weak, if it intensifies it will go SE and quickly. if it remains weak will remain slow moving.
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 09:34

Spot on analysis, Mick.
Posted by: slipperyfish

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 09:43

Hasnít moved much. Still a few hours before it starts to make a significant move.
Posted by: Procella

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 11:19

There are some great images on the Willis Is loop. Really starting to build
Posted by: nimbuss1

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 12:18

Shear is getting more favourable...
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=austeast&sat=wgms&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
Posted by: Inclement Weather

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 12:21

Mid-level steering seems to be favouring a westerly movement:



Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 12:31

Flood Watch for coastal catchments between Cairns and Rockhampton
Issued at 12:26 pm EST on Sunday 1 April 2018

Flood Watch Number: 4

River level rises and areas of potentially significant flooding are likely to develop over parts of the Flood Watch area from Monday into Tuesday. Moderate to major flooding is possible.

A tropical low (ex-tropical cyclone Iris) currently in the Coral Sea is expected to approach the coast over the next few days.

Areas of heavy rainfall are likely to develop over parts of the Flood Watch area from late Sunday, particularly south of Townsville to Rockhampton. By Monday, this may extend into the North Tropical coast with heavy rainfall continuing through to at least Wednesday. The location of the heaviest rainfall still remains uncertain and is dependent on the movement of the low.

Any significant rainfall is likely to cause river level rises and widespread minor flooding from Monday. Moderate to major flooding is possible in the areas of heaviest rainfall, particularly in the North Tropical Coast catchments that have had significant rainfall and flooding over the past few weeks.

Catchments that have received recent rainfall are expected to respond quickly and heavy rainfall may also lead to local flooding.

Rivers level rises could cause significant disruption to transport and isolation of communities.

Catchments which may be affected include:

Mulgrave and Russell Rivers
Johnstone River
Tully River
Murray River
Herbert River
Black River
Ross and Bohle Rivers
Haughton River
Burdekin River downstream of Burdekin Falls Dam
Don and Proserpine Rivers
Pioneer River
Connors, Isaac and Styx Rivers and Plane Creek
Mackenzie and Fitzroy Rivers and Shoalwater and Water Park Creeks (Lower Mackenzie)

See www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings to view the current flood warnings for Queensland.

For more information on the Flood Watch Service: http://www.bom.gov.au/water/floods/floodWarningServices.shtml
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 12:32

Appears to be moving South on the Willis Is radar.

Pressure dropping pretty quickly there are well:

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94299.shtml
Posted by: WANDJINA G'vale

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 13:03

Very heavy rain squalls and accompanying winds occurring in Gordonvale as of 5mins ago
Posted by: Hurricane force

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 13:06

Same in the city. Massive gust with heavy rainfall
Posted by: nimbuss1

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 13:09

Just started here..... woo wee, a bit of wind alright!
Posted by: cold@28

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 13:11

Best on offer out here is wafts of nicely cooling breeze every now and then.

It's only 33 anyway, so not too hot.
45% humidity.

Blue and white sky in the west, interesting grey in the east. And the clouds generally are moving across the sky pretty fast.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 13:35

Hot and sunny with odd cloud for last few days but wind has increased since yesterday. Few showers floating around.
Posted by: Crystal

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 13:43

Short lived bursts of wind and rain then wild ride from Redlynch shops. Palms down galore in our driveway. Now all back to nearly normal.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 13:48

BOM even awake in Brisbane?
Posted by: Homer

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 13:50

Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
BOM even awake in Brisbane?


Still on their lunch break mate.
Posted by: cold@28

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 13:52

Not much blue sky left, just one small patch in the north, become grey very quickly, and now getting another few minutes of nice cool breeze. Gentle breeze, not gusts.
Posted by: nimbuss1

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 13:58

Bom's 4 day charts are out....
Looks like they got ex TC Iris sitting over the cairns area for the next few days?

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
Posted by: SMD1125

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 14:01

Clear South trend the last 3hrs on Willis Is RADAR
Posted by: Willraja

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 14:02

Originally Posted By: nimbuss1
Bom's 4 day charts are out....
Looks like they got ex TC Iris sitting over the cairns area for the next few days?

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

And it looks like they have an unlabelled isobar at 990hpa around the centre so a sub-990hpa central pressure. Should put it at a Cat 1 system for that period.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 14:04

Originally Posted By: Willraja
Originally Posted By: nimbuss1
Bom's 4 day charts are out....
Looks like they got ex TC Iris sitting over the cairns area for the next few days?

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

And it looks like they have an unlabelled isobar at 990hpa around the centre so a sub-990hpa central pressure. Should put it at a Cat 1 system for that period.


Whether or not a system is a TC is decided by wind speed wrapping more than halfway around its centre - not central pressure.
Posted by: Willraja

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 14:18

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Willraja
Originally Posted By: nimbuss1
Bom's 4 day charts are out....
Looks like they got ex TC Iris sitting over the cairns area for the next few days?

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

And it looks like they have an unlabelled isobar at 990hpa around the centre so a sub-990hpa central pressure. Should put it at a Cat 1 system for that period.


Whether or not a system is a TC is decided by wind speed wrapping more than halfway around its centre - not central pressure.


Yes I understand that, in the absence of other info going off the 4-Day MSLP chart a high 980s low in the Coral Sea can reasonably be expected to be a Cat 1 system, true? Not?
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 14:29

I honestly don't know sorry Willraja, I haven't been following it too closely today due to being busy except for looking at a few model products. I was just commenting on how it can be hard to tell if a marginal system's a TC or not just by looking at an MSLP chart.
Posted by: WANDJINA G'vale

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 14:45

Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
BOM even awake in Brisbane?
p

😂
Posted by: cold@28

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 14:45

Just starting to sprinkle, trying to become rain.

First rain in days. Hopefully more to come.
Posted by: Dawgggg

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 15:15

apparantly still subtropical
Posted by: nimbuss1

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 15:17

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Sunday 1 April 2018
for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 4 April 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.
Potential Cyclones:

At 2:00pm EST Sunday, ex-tropical cyclone Iris was located near latitude 15.5 degrees south, longitude 149.3 degrees east, about 410 km east-northeast of Cairns. The low is currently moving south-southwest at about 5 km/h.
The system is likely to remain slow moving for much of today before adopting a more southwesterly track and moving closer to the tropical or central Queensland coast on Monday and Tuesday.
The system is expected to remain a subtropical low today and tomorrow, however the environment becomes more favourable on Tuesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday:Low
Tuesday:Moderate
Wednesday:Moderate
Posted by: Cybermouse

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 15:41

Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
BOM even awake in Brisbane?


Still on their lunch break mate.


I'm a bit surprised BoM hasnt put out a track map yet it even though its still subtropical. Perhaps its a bit too early or they've found a great pub for lunch. grin
Posted by: nimbuss1

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 15:59

Updated Marine Wind Warning Summary for Queensland
Issued at 3:52 pm EST on Sunday 1 April 2018
for the period until midnight EST Monday 2 April 2018.
Wind Warnings for Sunday 1 April
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Cooktown Coast, Cairns Coast, Townsville Coast, Mackay Coast and Capricornia Coast

Wind Warnings for Monday 2 April
Gale Warning for the following area:
Townsville Coast

Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Cooktown Coast, Cairns Coast, Mackay Coast and Capricornia Coast

The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:45 am EST Monday.
Posted by: snowmad

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 16:07

Severe Weather warning will be issued later today and I reckon looking at the development and environment will have good chance of being renamed system on Monday with Cyclone watch/warnings
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 16:18

Yup, BOM mentions that a SWW will be issued in their weather update video:

Posted by: Brett Guy

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 16:25

Loving each new model run that comes out. It's like they are trying to out do the craziness of the last one. We may be watching this thing in the same place in a weeks time after it's done another loop de loop. Crazy stuff
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 16:25

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: Willraja
Originally Posted By: nimbuss1
Bom's 4 day charts are out....
Looks like they got ex TC Iris sitting over the cairns area for the next few days?

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

And it looks like they have an unlabelled isobar at 990hpa around the centre so a sub-990hpa central pressure. Should put it at a Cat 1 system for that period.


Whether or not a system is a TC is decided by wind speed wrapping more than halfway around its centre - not central pressure.


Is it fair to say that usually the lower the pressure the faster the winds or is that incorrect.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 16:29

Yep usually (but not always) Nikko.
Posted by: Ken Kato

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 16:30

Indeed Brett, hence my comment the other day...

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
This system could eventually go down as one of the most unpredictable and longest lived ones in the Coral Sea in years (much of it as an ex-TC) if it followed the "staying out to sea" scenarios. But if it crossed early, its lifespan will be shorter.
Posted by: Raindammit

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 16:32

New thread has been opened for ex-Iris.

Please continue relevant discussion in that thread.
Posted by: rainthisway

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 16:47

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Yep usually (but not always) Nikko.


I was always under that impression due to the fact lower pressure has air rushing in to it from higher pressure, that the lower the pressure the faster the air is moving into the centre the faster the winds. So that is usually the case but not 100% of the time. Glad that fact has been cleared up with me.
Posted by: JIGGA

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 17:30

Cairns weather forecast from BOM
Monday- Shower or 2
Tuesday- Showers
Wednesday- Rain at times
Thursday- Showers
hahaha
Can someone explain the differences???
Posted by: Mathew

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 01/04/2018 17:37

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

Have a look how big the things is on this link here.

That explain anythings.
Posted by: Willraja

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 05/04/2018 10:19

Originally Posted By: JIGGA
Cairns weather forecast from BOM
Monday- Shower or 2
Tuesday- Showers
Wednesday- Rain at times
Thursday- Showers
hahaha
Can someone explain the differences???


In a nut shell. Showers are short lived local events. Rain is longer lived and wide spread.

http://www.bom.gov.au/info/wwords/
Posted by: Dan101

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 03/05/2018 10:25

Wow, what a season. Did we even have a cyclone season? Lol.
Posted by: DexterB

Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 - 28/05/2018 16:33

Wasn't too blowy where I am, but wet, wet, wet!
Couldn't get into Cairns from the northern beaches on two separate occasions. Much wetter than Cyclone Yasi was.