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#1425586 - 08/06/2017 18:54 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4356
Especially Sunday in the north....



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#1425653 - 09/06/2017 18:14 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6394
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...

Thanks Ken. Light frost here this morning - but after a calm 15C sunny day, .....it's like a morgue out there atm. Definitely a morning to sleep in, if you, can out Gippsland way tomorrow!

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#1425658 - 09/06/2017 20:17 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2191
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
No one will get out bed early this long weekend.

look at satellite of weak upper low spinning West to North direction from North of Victoria/ South NSW.


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/austeast/movies/gmswv/gmswv_loop.html

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#1425768 - 11/06/2017 18:23 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6394
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
For those like "frost jaded" me - the outlook over the next 5 - 7 days might at least allow an alternative from cold-frost to cold-windy/drizzly for those in Vic's SW and coastal areas over the next 5-7 days???

.....For those Vic's N of the divide, more of the same I'm afraid if I'm reading the runes correctly.

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#1425995 - 14/06/2017 18:47 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1528
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
BOM has virtually zero rain between now and next Wed, this dry couple of months ( 2017 year figures) are looking ominous !!

Our patch has 141mm for this year!!

Need rain to get it all holding on, going backwards with grass and unusual to see some dry patches in June.

The H pressure systems are rolling by one after another, they should change, the sooner the better.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-12mm. June-11mm to 0900 24th.

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#1426295 - 19/06/2017 18:27 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6394
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Could there be some precipitation/snow for Vic during this looming weekend?:



If anyone, who hasnt had there fingers burnt recently, can see any credibility in this latest GFS offering, please start a thread! smile

Continual frosts, no wind, no rain, no snow - makes the poor old Vic Forum a fairly boring space! frown

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#1426529 - 22/06/2017 21:15 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4356
Below is a CFSV2 map I posted in another thread at the end of last month showing its forecast pressure anomalies averaged across this month - it's unfortunate that the massive higher than normal pressures across the south have pretty much eventuated as forecast....



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#1426531 - 22/06/2017 21:24 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8281
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Hey Ken, is there one for next month?

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#1426706 - 26/06/2017 18:50 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4356
I'll post one when I get home LRH. In the meantime, a copy of a post I made elsewhere just then:

You can also see what toll the expected persistent big area of high pressure across the south has had on rainfall so far this month as well - large sections of SE Australia are actually currently on track for driest June on record unless a massive unforecast rain event happens:









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#1426773 - 27/06/2017 18:33 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6394
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yup, she's VERY dry. Thank God it's happening mid winter!

Hopefully a snowy cold wet outbreak will occur during July/August as the PDO has returned to neutral over the past few weeks?

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#1426783 - 27/06/2017 23:08 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 286
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Petros
Yup, she's VERY dry. Thank God it's happening mid winter!

Hopefully a snowy cold wet outbreak will occur during July/August as the PDO has returned to neutral over the past few weeks?
PDO doesn't affect Victoria very much. I would be watching SAM more.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

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#1426796 - Yesterday at 09:37 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1528
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Re S.A.M. - A small quote -

"Even the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) which indexes the day to day extent of westerly winds circumnavigating Antarctica has been close to normal, although on average slightly positive, which is a negative for rain. This leaves smaller local drivers of our weather patterns as the cause of this frontless and rainless winter. High pressure has dominated the southeast, failing to make its northerly migration to central latitudes."
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-12mm. June-11mm to 0900 24th.

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