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#1437158 - 14/10/2017 22:47 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Anthony Violi]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1195
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Originally Posted By: Anthony Violi
Dewpoints are good, trigger lacking however


Be a repeat of sunday with areas with no cap
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#1438240 - 20/10/2017 18:30 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6552
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
It appears that a low pressure system, born over Perth, can somehow hold itself together for a long trip to Vic mid next week. At this stage, might track along the Murray R and maybe give us parched Gippslanders 20mm or so from easterlies??

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#1438261 - 20/10/2017 21:21 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Anthony Violi Offline
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Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2323
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
Needs moisture Petros, luckily though it appears the moisture will actually be on the SE quadrant of the low so this has potential.

However, I would think a lot can go wrong from here as far as where it tracks, will need a couple more days to pin it down.
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#1438290 - Yesterday at 09:55 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1806
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Originally Posted By: Petros
It appears that a low pressure system, born over Perth, can somehow hold itself together for a long trip to Vic mid next week. At this stage, might track along the Murray R and maybe give us parched Gippslanders 20mm or so from easterlies??


Love yer thinkin P. grin
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Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-18mm to 0900 20th.

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#1438293 - Yesterday at 10:43 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1806
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Tuesday/Wed front falls to bits on ACCESS, the Friday one is better ???
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-18mm to 0900 20th.

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#1438337 - Yesterday at 18:05 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6552
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS retains the track of the cut-off low ex WA next week.

Yep AV is right about lack of moisture (cool waters returned off NW WA AV???), modest fall progged on its journey to Vic.

Still 10mm+, as currently progged, wont be ignored by us in N Gippsland (beggars cant be choosers):


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#1438387 - Today at 08:52 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2323
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
I think this one will favour you Petros, any moisture available will be wrapped into he low by the time it gets here and be in the SE quadrant, and that will be enough to drag further moisture in from the Tasman.
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#1438392 - Today at 09:15 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1806
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Appreciate your comments AV, thanks grin

GFS showing good rainfall totals over the next fortnight, appears lot of weather from S round to the W, less N/W than we've had up to now.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/agriculture/?lt=wzstate&lc=vic&c=14day&rc=rain&p=168

https://www.windy.com/?-30.808,150.337,5


Edited by samboz (Today at 09:17)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-18mm to 0900 20th.

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#1438411 - Today at 12:01 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6552
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The track off the progged cut-off low has remained remarkably stable for the past 48 hrs on various models, hope it remains so (but we all know there will chops and changes in the models over the next couple of days.

At least the birth of a surface closed low off Perth is now evolving as a fact.

GFS reflects AV's comments for Gippsland being perhaps the rainfall winner of this event:



.....at this stage.

I see that we have a +1C seawater temperature anomaly out in Bass Straight, perhaps that why? Anyhow, its well time for a Vic thread for this event.

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#1438450 - Today at 15:44 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5793
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Further beyond this upcoming event, the charts seem to be lining up for what could be a real springtime Battle of the Air Masses across Southern Australia as we near the end of October 2017!

ACCESS, GFS and the synoptics all have a potentially major winter storm heading our way during the coming week, starting out as vigorous westerly surge with a mammoth Antarctica cold pool embedded within the Roaring Forties. Several low pressure cells are likely to develop within this air mass, with one suddenly charging north across the Southern Ocean!

The low should enter the Bight next weekend and suddenly deepen as it feeds off the hot air building over the Outback and tropical Northern Australia, with a ferocious cold front forming as the cold air gets coiled around the low's circulation! Several troughs from the WA Pilbara also link into the storm.

The sharp temperature contrast associated with this storm could unleash damaging gales as the northerly airflow strengthens across Victoria by Sunday October 29th and Monday October 30th! Not sure about rainfall and thunderstorm prospects though.

ACCESS has this storm then developing into an intense ECL by October 31st btw.

Worth keeping an eye on. smile

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#1438459 - Today at 18:28 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6552
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Ta ASF - we will!! ....I reckon an unseasonable cut-off low over E Vic is possible first week in Nov with the scenario you describe??


Edited by Petros (Today at 18:32)

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#1438461 - Today at 18:31 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2323
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
The only problem ASF is the negative AAO has not behaved yet as it normally would.

Normally being as negative as it is we, should have seen a big response, at the moment it looks weak to me.

And I think it slacking moisture which means upper troughs wont amplify without significant moisture, we nay have to wait a few weeks.
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#1438467 - Today at 19:29 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1806
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
A.A.O. is the same as the S.A.M. ie-

"The Southern Annular Mode (SAM), also known as the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), describes the north–south movement of the westerly wind belt that circles Antarctica, dominating the middle to higher latitudes of the southern hemisphere."

Positive phase:
band of westerly winds contracts toward Antarctica
higher pressures over southern Australia
can relate to stable, dry conditions.
Negative phase:
band of westerly winds expands towards the equator
more (or stronger) low pressure systems over southern Australia
can mean increased storms and rain.

For info - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/SAM-what.shtml
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-18mm to 0900 20th.

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#1438479 - 53 minutes 47 seconds ago Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1806
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Originally Posted By: aussiestormfreak
ACCESS has this storm then developing into an intense ECL by October 31st btw.
Worth keeping an eye on. smile


That could be a ripper if it comes off asf, very impressive -

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=accessg&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=240&focus=mh
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-18mm to 0900 20th.

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