Not to be seen to be taking sides in any of this . Whilst definitely staying vague enough AV manages to be able to Claim whatever came true .
But in his defence MM , came out with this GEM .
" Originally Posted By: Anthony Violi
And as CF said mammatus mistress, its the IOD that has been effecting the weather all winter.
MM Response "
Not quite a complete truth. It's the IOD in conjunction with a Pacific basin in a kind of quasi-Nino state which has been responsible.
I tipped a weak Modoki in June. But like the late forming Nino of '09 this year has still to be determined.
Here on the North Coast, for all intents and purposes, we are in drought: and this area is extremely sensitive to ENSO states. " .
Maybe MM cried Wolf with the " Drought " comment .... LOL
Last time i checked , a Drought needs to last longer than 9 Mths . But more importantly a Drought should be classified as a Season when the wettest part of the Year fails to deliver . So last time I checked the North coast of NSW does not rely on Spring rain to make up much of their Yearly Total .
Your point of the Cyclone although partially correct , shouldn't really apply to this . I think the Largest factr to this latest event would most undoubtedly have to put down to the Monsoon , and delayed arrival on top of a strong MJO pass that saw the Monsoon Trough turn on its ear and produce a Vertical alignment .
In which case many historical factors/ measurements wouldn't / couldn't show this as either a Low end inshore Cat 1 cyclone of just a overtly strong Monsoon Trough helped along with an exceptional NE infeed . I presume BOM will dissect all this in due course . ( with no doubt some sort of Connection to AGW inferred ) .
PS . Hope your feeling better . ( spider bite )
" I walk around in the Summertime , saying ' how about this Heat ' !
I'm an ............ , a real ........ ............. "