It's "similar but not the same" as a Modoki which of course means "similar but not the same". Are we confused yet?

I was aware that the cold water coming out of Antarctica was the cause of the cold pool near New Zealand. I suspect it is also the reason this attempted elnino summer didn't come as water was carried nth in the subsurface to dismantle any eastward moving Kelvin Waves.

Wishing all a happy Christmas and a happy, safe, healthy and blessed New Year 2013

Forcast for the rest of summer for brisbane will be hot and dry. The CS is too cool to support activity. On land this should be classed as an el nino

And for prosperity sake...the post previous to this quote said start preparing for floods on Oct 26.

Now everyone in the Southern states should start doing the same.

With all due respect AV this event was a cyclone and they can happen any time in the cyclone season. This one has taken just the right path to cause the large totals. It is not penetrating very far into the inland. That itself IMO means that this was more chance than from a climatic conditions. You may be right but if this was just as I suspect an isolated event you will look quite the boy who cried wolf.

And im saying it definitely wont be, just like i did then.

400% above average is still 400% above average, and it hit the general population.

Where MM lives would be copping a lifetime caning right now.

And many others too..

So could you recap your opinion on what the year will be like? How about for the eastern seaboard, Murray darling basin and top end?

I am a little hazy today, got bitten by a spider and pain killers are kicking me around a little

Not to be seen to be taking sides in any of this . Whilst definitely staying vague enough AV manages to be able to Claim whatever came true .
But in his defence MM , came out with this GEM .

" Originally Posted By: Anthony Violi

And as CF said mammatus mistress, its the IOD that has been effecting the weather all winter.


MM Response "

Not quite a complete truth. It's the IOD in conjunction with a Pacific basin in a kind of quasi-Nino state which has been responsible.

I tipped a weak Modoki in June. But like the late forming Nino of '09 this year has still to be determined.

Here on the North Coast, for all intents and purposes, we are in drought: and this area is extremely sensitive to ENSO states. " .

Maybe MM cried Wolf with the " Drought " comment .... LOL

Last time i checked , a Drought needs to last longer than 9 Mths . But more importantly a Drought should be classified as a Season when the wettest part of the Year fails to deliver . So last time I checked the North coast of NSW does not rely on Spring rain to make up much of their Yearly Total .

Your point of the Cyclone although partially correct , shouldn't really apply to this . I think the Largest factr to this latest event would most undoubtedly have to put down to the Monsoon , and delayed arrival on top of a strong MJO pass that saw the Monsoon Trough turn on its ear and produce a Vertical alignment .
In which case many historical factors/ measurements wouldn't / couldn't show this as either a Low end inshore Cat 1 cyclone of just a overtly strong Monsoon Trough helped along with an exceptional NE infeed . I presume BOM will dissect all this in due course . ( with no doubt some sort of Connection to AGW inferred ) .

PS . Hope your feeling better . ( spider bite )

Anyone heard from mammatus mistress? Or anyone else who said El nino had taken hold and to write this summer off for the coastal regions?

Good call, Anthony, perhaps they can come out of the woodwork and give those of us who said that the Wet Season would arrive, albeit late, some thoughts on where they went wrong. Because they most certainly went wrong in a tremendous fashion.