Hi all, I'm back from the USA and the latest blog update is now up for the monster hail producing tornadic supercell from Oklahoma on May 29th:

http://www.huntersofthunder.com/2012/06/may-29th-oklahoman-wonder.html


Enjoy!

Brad.

Another blog update is up, this time for the slow moving tornadic and ridiculous hail producing supercells in and near Denver on June 6th.


http://www.huntersofthunder.com/2012/06/june-6th-colorado-classic-after.html

Brad.

Truly amazing images Brad and John, especially May 29th,
Cheers, Con.

Thanks Con.


And another update, June 7th monster structured HP supercell - a simply incredible storm.

http://www.huntersofthunder.com/2012/06/june-7th-collosal-colorado-rinsed-and.html



Brad.

wow wow wow at the photo Hamlan can clearly see the rotation in that

Massive tornado/waterspout just off the Florida coast. I have never seen one like it, normally waterspouts are skinny but this one was as fat as the largest tornado I have seen. Saw it on the news but cannot seem to find the pics on the net.

On a slightly lighter note it seems Tropical Storm Debbie will not be doing Dallas but rather has crossed the Florida coast instead.

The SPC currently has a moderate risk area extending into the Northeast including NYC between 10pm tonight (AEST) & 10pm tomorrow night.

The first image is the forecast for 18z from this morning's run of SREF that suggests a bullseye of somewhat favourable tornado ingredients (the red hatched area) swinging down across the Northeast by tomorrow morning our time.

The 2nd image is the forecast sounding and hodograph from the NAM model for La Guardia Airport in NYC for 00z (just before the NAM moves the bulk of the convection overhead) which shows almost 800 J/kg of hail-CAPE (readout near the upper left in the hodo image & also evident in the sounding itself) in the hail-growth zone (white), an inverted-V sounding & dry'ish midlevels. The very strong low-level shear associated with the low level jet as well as the curved hodo & low level cap is also evident. Should be an interesting region to watch.

2 tornado reports according to SPC, right in the area shown near PA NY border on the map above. Was a pretty solid bowing echo NW of NYC for awhile as well. Heaps of high wind reports, there was a lot of cloud and even rain in the morning as is often the case in the NE of the US which might have saved them stronger weather still.

Below is an extract and one of the photos (taken by Ryan Brenizer) out of a news article on the amazingly long derecho that swept through the Northeast (among other areas). The rest of the article can be read here:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...s-New-York.html

Astonishing images of the moment apocalyptic 'derecho' superstorm battered New York killing two:

One man was killed in Brooklyn, New York, and a woman died in Genesee, Pennsylvania.

Richard Schwartz, 61, an assistant New York State attorney general, was killed after being hit by scaffolding and bricks falling from a church steeple that was struck by lightning.

32 million people in path of severe storm and New York City has 'unusually high risk' of tornado.

State of emergency issued after tornado touched down in Elmira, NY at 4.15pm with fires, building damage and motorists trapped in cars.

^ Wow.

Whoa that looks incredibly freaky storm! 2012 like situation? War of the worlds?

There's another fairly potent setup likely to extend to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states towards the end of this week (upper/sfc low with cold front & the region getting warm-sectored) with some favourable low level helicity & instability.

The Northeast including areas around NYC, Washington DC, etc (as well as far southeastern Canada) look like getting a battering from an outbreak of severe thunderstorms overnight Sat through Sun (Australian time). It's a particularly nasty setup with the biggest threat being damaging winds of the derecho kind... but also a chance for tornadoes where there's breaks in any squall lines & hail. SPC currently has much of the Tri-State region in a Moderate Risk area for severe storms.

Below is the output from the SREF ensemble for 7am Sun morning (AEST) showing the conditional probability of convective precipitation falling in the presence of the SPC's Derecho Parameter equalling or exceeding 1.0 (which typically indicates the presence of favourable ingredients for derechoes).


Here's an excerpt from the current SPC convective outlook:

POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NERN U.S. SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM/ECMWF...SUGGEST SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL DIG INTO LOWER MI BY 08/12 BEFORE EJECTING NEWD IN A NEGATIVELY
TILTED FASHION AND DEEPENING OVER SERN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC. 90-120M
12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS WRN/UPSTATE NY DURING THE DAY
ENSURING A STRONGLY FORCED AND CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE COLD FRONT.

ALL INDICATIONS FAVOR A SQUALL ALONG THE WIND SHIFT AT SUNRISE FROM
SRN ONTARIO SWD ACROSS OH...TRAILING INTO THE TN VALLEY.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED MID LEVEL JET THAT SHOULD
INTENSIFY AS IT EJECTS ACROSS WRN PA TO SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 70KT
OVER UPSTATE NY BY 09/00Z.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NRN NJ NWD THROUGH
THE HUDSON VALLEY SUGGEST TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS CAN EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE AND WITH CIRCULATIONS
WITHIN THE LINE.

Further re my above post, below is the forecast radar image of the region for 6am AEST (generated by the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model with 3km resolution into which gets fed current 3D radar echoes as part of the data it uses) which clearly shows a long squall line type scenario: