This might give an indication crikey, that any changes in the numbers of Hurricanes / Cyclones/ Typhoons [ same thing ] are not due to AGW but are the consequence of the ever changing global climate

From "Coastal Research"

Abstract;
Comparing Two Long-Term Hurricane Frequency and Intensity Records from San Salvador Island, Bahamas

And the interesting bit in the abstract is this
Its all happened before, many times, perhaps beyond uncountable and it didn't need any help from mankind to do it.

And Trenberth's modeled water vapour increase doesn't seem to be happening as the upper troposphere and stratosphere are indicating a very small decline in WV levels and the levels below 850 mb's ie say about 7000 feet are indicating a slight increase.
And more atmospheric water vapour and it rains a bit more until the balance is again reached between evaporation and precipitation.

AN INTERESTING COMPARISON OF EXTREME WEATHER IN THE US
COMPARING MARCH 2O12 AND MARCH 1843
http://blog.chron.com/climateabyss/2012/04/an-extremely-unusual-march/

But it was so much colder in 1843. How does that relate to the temperatures being so much warmer/hotter in spring in the US than normal this time around? We are not comparing apples with apples. Forget the NAO, has to be climate change/global warming surely as the extremes are more extreme with high temp records being broken nearly every day, or so I'm lead to beleive by other posts.

proposed theory
how melting artic ice alters jetstream pattern and the implications for extreme weather

Video: Extreme Weather and Rapid Arctic Warming
http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/video-extreme-weather-climate-change-and-arctic-warming/
Published: May 2nd, 2012

By Andrew Freedman

Recently I reported on a study showing links between rapid Arctic climate change and shifts in the jet stream throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The study, led by Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University, suggests that there may be an Arctic connection to some extreme weather events, particularly ones that result from stuck, or "blocked," weather patterns.

The study shows that by changing the temperature balance between the Arctic and mid-latitudes, rapid Arctic warming is altering the course of the jet stream, which steers weather systems from west to east around the hemisphere. The Arctic has been warming about twice as fast as the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, due to a combination of human emissions of greenhouse gases and unique feedbacks built into the Arctic climate system.

The jet stream, the study states, is becoming “wavier,” with steeper troughs and higher ridges. As a result, weather systems are progressing more slowly, raising the chances for long-duration extreme events, like droughts, floods, and heat waves.

Over at the Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media, Pete Sinclair — known for his "climate denial crock of the week" video series — posted a video exploring this study and other recent evidence regarding the causes of extreme weather and climate events. It's worth watching, and features interviews with Dr. Francis, Jeff Masters of Weather Underground, and several other experts.

--------------
2012: Warmest March Ever Recorded
You knew it was warm last month, but today it’s official: it wasn’t just warm; it was the warmest March ever recorded.

This NASA animation shows the locations of each of the 15,000 temperature records set in sequence over the 31 days in March.

http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/video-extreme-weather-climate-change-and-arctic-warming/

2012: Warmest March ever ???

There were only about 15 warmer March's prior.

[The numbers are always quoted in anomaly so it makes no sense to talk about this March versus that March, all months are comparable - other than the ENSO has more impact on the Feb/March temperatures so there is more variability in these months than others].


Keeping that in mind, March 2012 was the 155th warmest month on record.


--------------------

Global water vapour level in March 2012 - 0.22 mms above the average of 24.9 mms/m2 - 0.9% - that wasn't in the video obviously

-------------------

Arctic sea ice level - 9th lowest in the record of 33 years - unlikely to have affected the northern jet stream so much more than the 8 other lower years.

Antarctic sea ice - 29th lowest in the record of 33 years - should have made the jet stream more stable compared to other years according to climatecentral.org

-----------------

If this is not Propaganda, I don't know what is.

would have liked to have heard your views on jetstream position anomalies BILLILLIS

Here is a blog discussion on the link between artic ice extent and jet stream behaviour
Here are the anomalies in the 500 hPascal thickness


He explains how the warm anomalies reduce density and temp gradients between polar and ferrel cell l believe, causing the jetstream to slow
quote
if the jet stream gets stuck - the Rossby waves stop or slow down - it can lead to weather extremes - one place may have flooding as rain continues for weeks or months, while another place may have drought as it stays sunny and dry there for an extended period.
===========
For example, the paper
Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes by Francis and Vavrus.
presents evidence of the northern most latitude of the Rossby wave gradually moving north during the fall over the last few decades (blue curve):


source
http://earlywarn.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/slowing-rossby-waves-leading-to-extreme.html

Indian monsoon floods leave 80 dead and 2 million homeless
JULY 2nd report ...2012
Air force dropping food parcels to marooned survivors as worst flooding in a decade hits villages in
north-eastern state of Assam

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/02/indian-monsoon-floods-80-dead


I think the aspect that hit me the most was the size of the population in this area.

Monsoon floods hit Assam, which has a population of 26 million,
almost every year as heavy rains swells the Brahmaputra and tributaries that crisscross the state.

Nearly half a million people are living in relief camps set up across Assam, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told journalists in Gauhati, the state capital.

The rest of the 2 million displaced are staying with relatives or living in the open, sheltering under tarpaulin sheets.

770 camps set up across Assam, one of India's main tea-growing states. The hilly areas used to grow tea have not been affected, but rice fields lower down have been washed away.

In the worst-hit Dhemaji district, entire villages were engulfed. Officials said Majuli island, one of the world's largest river islands, was awash as water levels in the Brahmaputra rose. "This is one of the worst floods to hit Assam," Singh said..

The amount of people dispalced and homeless is 2 million
That is equivalent to the population of Adelaide in Australia..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cit...s_by_population

Can you imagine setting up 770 camps for the population of Adelaide.!!!
I feel very lucky tonight sitting in the comfort of my
home and don't have to worry about monsoons..

This was posted by me in 24/8/2008 on Dipole thread, Crikey...not sure what has happened up there this year?

"In a paper which you may peruse here, the proposition is put forward that the positive IOD's are usually preceded and triggered by a severe tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal during the April / May period." ROM quote

For info their study was until 2003: From then onwards.......

For 2004: 2 TCs in May, 1st on 5/5/04 max 6 hr wind 55kts "TC 01A"
and 2nd on 17/5/04 max 6 hr wind gust 75kts
"TC 02b"
Result: Neutral to Slightly POSITIVE Dipole 2004 after 2 weak to mod strength TC's in B of Bengal April to May 2004. Good rain year, but dry spell in Sept and two 40C hot northerly days did crops bad damage.

For 2005: None in April-May
Result: Neutral Dipole 2005 after no TC's B of Bengal April-May 2005. Good rain & cropping year most areas.

For 2006: 1 TC in April 24th max 6 hr wind gust 140kt "TC Mala"
Result: POSITIVE Dipole 2006 after severe TC B of Bengal. Bad Drought after 1 Severe TC in B of Bengal April-May 2006.

For 2007 1 TC in May 15th max 6hr wind gust 80kt
"TC Akash"
Result: POSITIVE Dipole developed after Late June 2007. Good start to season then poor Spring rains finished most crops off poorly, except mainly some coastal areas. After 1 reasonable strength TC in B of Bengal April-May 2007.

For 2008: 1 TC so far "TC 01b Nargis" Cat 1 at present max 6hr gust?
Result: ? Maybe forecast preliminary of weaker to almost Moderate type POSITIVE dipole 2008. See how it all goes for rest of this TC and May TC's 2008?

"RSMC- TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI DATED 28-04-2008
TROPCAL STORM “NARGIS” ADVISORY NO. SIX ISSUED AT 2000 UTC OF 28TH APRIL 2008 BASED ON 1800 UTC CHARTS OF 28 TH APRIL 2008.

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “NARGIS” OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST AND WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 1800 UTC OF TODAY, THE 28TH APRIL 2008 NEAR LAT. 13.00 N AND LONG 85.50 E, ABOUT 550 KM EAST OF CHENNAI (43279). CURRENT INTENSITY IS T3.5 RPT T3.5. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 55 KTS. SEA CONDITION IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 HPA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN TO SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BETWEEN LATITUDE 10.50 TO 14.50 NORTH AND LONG 82.00 TO 87.00 EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SLOWLY FOR SOME TIME AND THEREAFTER, IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS. FORECAST INTENSITY AT 291800 UTC IS T4.5 RPT T4.5."

This is all for interest only at this stage, of course. Does not mean that it will neccessasirly come to pass.......But the results do match up fairly well with their conclusions for past 4 years! But it is only one part in the rainfall equation and many other ocean areas will have big effects on the Australian and area rainfalls as well.

Cheers"

Thanks BD.. For info.
I took a snap of the Globe sat pic tonight as l noticed that cloud cover has ramped up heaps..lately
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/satellite/
You can see a large expanse of cloud cover over India but also a very large cloud coverage/proportion of that area of the globe. The ( ITCZ) Intertropical convergence zone has picked up in cloud cover expanse recently but is especially broad in the Asian quadrant atm.
Looking full on active in the asian/Indian zone atm
Of particular interest is the thickening of cloud fronts in the southern hemisphere in the past 48 hrs..!!!
I hope there is something in this for PD.
Hope the thick cold fronts hold..
Nice white cold rain/snow bearing cloud?
SAM has had a minus 5.8 !! dip in 10 days..
Looking for a severe event from this?

That thickening of the cloud is where the MJO is active:

http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html

i.e. currently in Phase 1/2 in the Indian Ocean

Record JULY rainfall for TOWNSVILLE of 87.6m
9th/10th July
according to Livinias weather news in Melbourne ch 9
Checked that and found that to be correct.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/
The previous record was 7th July 1927

I thought it was worthwhile to note the dynamics of this event and l suspect the QLD BOM will do a special climate statement at some stage

BOM WATL combined models forecast did extremely well to pin point a potential 100mm of rain for this area before the event

I was interested in the dynamics of this record breaking event
apart from the warm anomalies out in the coral sea as already mentioned in WZ news

From my investigation l particularly noticed a number of highlights

Dew point was between 18-20 deg c during the event
plenty of surface moisture most likely arriving from the warm coral sea and brought onshore by a very strong high centred in the Tasman with central pressure of 1034 hpascals

The MJO not involved because it is in the equatorial Indian ocean area atm.

Winds were prevailing ESE , S between 9-37km/hr

The surface temp was around 18-20 deg c during the event

Thickness 1000-500 hpascal 568-572

Barom pressure 1014-1017 hpascals

something that really got my attention as well as the high dew points during the dry season , a stark contrast to last year where they were very low
was the completely different direction of the wind streams at various altitudes and pressure

I believe this is referred to as high vertical wind shear?
I suppose that had a lot to do with the storms and rain??

see the drawing l made below

http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7106/7542046940_faeda7c65b_b.jpg

Perfect set up Crikey, incoming trough with cold uppers moving in from the West, and moist Easterlies at the surface feeding into it.

Expect this to be a common theme in the months ahead.

Yes, lets hope so.
And a lovely blocking high over NZ/Tasman.

But again, I hope it doesn't affect the growers too much with the winter crops in S.QLD or further south.

Make what you like out of it...the alternative view to extreme weather production...
depends on your faith and beliefs here, some will believe, some will rubbish...there will be no middle ground here on this one...but a worthy lot of quotes that have been around for 2000 odd years before "climate change severe weather" ever came into fashion...sure to create a storm here...here goes anyway....

"God's Weather Control in the Future

The Bible makes it quite clear that there will be a definite end to life as we know it. Earth's governmental systems, economic and trading systems, animal kingdom, and even geology will all be changed at the Second Coming of Christ. Our current age is coming to a dramatic end as God deals with rebellious nations. And just before these changes, at the very end of this age, it seems God will intervene in Earth's weather! For example, it will be a time of blessing for Israel. As God brings back His people from the nations and establishes them in their own land, He will also bless their land with the required rains. The wilderness turns green and becomes fruitful with the blessing of the required 'early' and 'latter' rains (Joel 2.21-27). In Israel the 'first' rains usually fall in early November, the 'latter' rains in April, corresponding to Autumn and Spring respectively.

But also at the very end of this age is seems God will use changes in Earth's weather to exact a series of judgements on the Gentile nations! Recall:

'For when the earth experiences Your judgements the inhabitants of the world learn righteousness.' (Isa 26.9)

These are more likely to be severe 'weather events' rather than long-term 'climate changes' simply because of the relatively short prophetic timescale involved. An idea of these changes is described in Isaiah. Chapters 24-27 of Isaiah are sometimes called 'Isaiah's Apocalypse' since they describe God's judgement upon the entire world for its sin. They also correlate well with judgements on the earth described in Revelation. Consider:


Drought and Scorching Heat

One of the judgements predicted by Isaiah appears to be drought:

'The earth will be completely laid waste ... the earth mourns and withers, the world fades and withers...'(Isa 24.3,4)

Drought is one of the consequences of disobedience (Deut 28.23,24)(Zech 14.17). Another form of judgement prophesied by Isaiah appears to be extreme heat - heat severe enough to kill people:

'Therefore ... the inhabitants of the earth are burned, and few men are left' (Isa 24.6)

The book of Revelation appears to speak of the same end time events and predicts extreme weather as part of God's judgement upon the nations. There will be fierce, scorching heat:

'The fourth angel poured out his bowl upon the sun, and it was given to it to scorch men with fire. Men were scorched with fierce heat ...' (Rev 16.8,9)


Storms, Torrential Rain, Snow and Extreme Hail

When questioned about the end of the age, Jesus hints at wild weather:

'There will be ... dismay among nations, in perplexity at the roaring of the sea and the waves' (Lk 21.25)

The root meaning of the Greek in this verse can mean nothing else but literal sea and literal waves. The word 'roaring' comes from the Greek 'echeo' meaning 'to make a loud noise'. Hurricanes and coastal flooding spring to mind.

Then there's the future Gog-Magog War. At some point in the future (biblical timing here is uncertain), it seems Iran, together with other Islamic nations, will invade Israel from the north (Ezek 38). But just as God intervened to release Israel from the grips of Pharaoh, so He will intervene to protect Israel from the invading armies. As with Joshua (see above), the weather plays an important part in their defeat:

'... I will rain on him (Gog) and on his troops ... a torrential rain, with hailstones ...' (Ezek 38.22)

Hail features high on the weather ingredients list at the end of the age. It is part of God's judgement upon the nations. Besides fierce heat there will be extreme hail and snow storms:

'Or have you entered the storehouses of the snow ... which I have reserved for the time of distress ...' (Job 38.22,23)

'... and huge hailstones, about one hundred pounds each, came down from heaven upon men ...' (Rev 16.8,9,21)

Clearly, God intends to use short-term weather changes to influence world affairs in the future. Since there is clear Biblical support for God's control of past and future weather, it is logical to ask 'is God speaking through climate change or severe weather events in today's world?'. How close are we to these future events?"

http://www.seekingtruth.co.uk/weather.htm

Oh....my....god....what are you on about BD? This is right up there with snafus nonsense about the US manipulating the climate and chemtrails altering our minds...

From the article:



Oh Noes!! we's all be doomed!! - the end of the world is nigh!!! LMAO!!

21/12/2012

John cook .author of Skeptical science , who you hold in high esteem CB, is a christian .
Christians believe in Bible.
I am surprised JOHN doesn't have those prophecies from the bible on the SkS site?
and what about the creation 6000 yrs ago. John does not acknowledge that on the site either?
CB said
"Oh Noes!! we's all be doomed!! - the end of the world is nigh!!! LMAO!!"

Isn't that the C02 warming lobby mantra?
because the global warming message from C02 lobby is just exactly that
They believe C02 is killing the planet and were all doomed



SNAFU. That date in December is MAYAN calender prophecy ..not ..christian biblical prophecy

It's also my birthday...

Happy Birthday Snafu.

Not today.

21st December 2012.

Don't blame me if it all comes to an end. I'll be to pis......merry to remember if anything happens......or at work.