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#1422069 - 24/04/2017 17:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2190
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
I love the new cloud called Steve.

New atmospheric phenomenon named Steve discovered by aurora watchers: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-24/new-light-phenomenon-called-steve-by-aurora-watchers/8466234
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#1422070 - 24/04/2017 17:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Colin Maitland]
Multiversity Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 64
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Brilliant. What a classic discovery. Always something new to amaze. WRT aurora - an intense auroral light event is something everybody should attempt to witness - truly amazing.
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#1422071 - 24/04/2017 17:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
MattJ Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 04/01/2006
Posts: 21
Loc: Jindalee, SW Brisbane
Brisbane minimum revised to 9 for Friday, still very cool.

The previous 7 degrees forecast, I don't recall it ever being that low for April either as a forecast or observation!

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#1422075 - 24/04/2017 18:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1055
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Yeah looks mighty chilly for April. Forecast min here for Friday is 4C, BoM seems to undercook min temps at this time of year though so should be a few degrees colder, maybe approaching to 0C.

Whats everyones thoughts on a potential rain band moving through ahead of the front on Wednesday? Looks to me like a widespread 5-10mm with less further north in the wide bay/burnett, maybe a rumble or two and clearing the coast by late afternoon with cold SW'lys behind. Would love a bit of rain though, even 5mm would be nice considering we have had zip since debbie did the rounds.
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2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 301mm ytd

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#1422082 - 24/04/2017 19:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 890
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
I'm off camping from thu thru mon , so regarding the chilly morning, your welcome , happens every time. Love it.

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#1422090 - 24/04/2017 20:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4266
In terms of overall rainfall, looks like most of our region will probably just get modest totals at best, and hardly anything at worst (given the NW flow and being near the thinner northern end of the frontal band)... although there still looks to be some instability ahead of it with profiles moistening up through a decent layer albeit for a short time....so if any storms did manage to form somewhere, maybe the outside chance that some could approach severe thresholds (very strong shear in the order of 50kt in the 0-6km layer in some places and 20kt in the 0-1km layer....ACCESS-R CAPE fields currently have 500-800j/kg in places and up to 1000-1500 around some parts of the Mid North Coast).

The catch is, will the approaching cloud cover/patchy precip hold off just long enough for sufficient heating to help with any storms (and cause localised higher rainfall totals), or will it come over too early and dampen things down too much.
There can also be some times when even if cloud/precip holds off til afternoon, it still just results in sparse localised embedded thunder inside a patchy rain band.

On a side note, I happened to have a really vivid dream the other night about witnessing a tornado drop down a few metres away here in Brisbane tornado but I regret to say that hardly any of my dreams end up being true smile

Anyway this forecast sounding for Wed afternoon in Brisbane will probably be fairly self explanatory for the technically minded sounding fans but I've basically selected the forecast effective inflow layer used by storms to calculate the CAPE (which in this case, works out to 434 J/kg for that time and close to the mixed layer CAPE of 554J/kg). In this sounding, parcels rising from the layer which provides the most unstable CAPE gives a CAPE of 1428J/kg).

The WATL map below is valid between 10pm Tue and 10pm Wed.

All in all, nothing to get that excited about with this marginal setup (setups with a good moisture-rich NNE flow, higher instability and a S'ly change are far better than this one for severe storms) although probably still unwise to rule out that outside chance of severes altogether.






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#1422102 - Yesterday at 05:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 890
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Ken , please ensure that if your dream comes true that it doesn't drop down anywhere near my place. I've seen one up close once and although mesmerising , I'd rather watch on a telly than in reality. You can have it over the Southside.

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#1422151 - Yesterday at 15:45 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1526
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the S Wes...
Few cell firing up to West and South west ,South looks good ,Not sure if I will get any though.
Looking forward to 3-4 deg mornings in the next few days .
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BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
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#1422192 - Today at 00:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 237
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
I had a similar dream recently as well, probably due to the fact I'm keeping a close eye on the US tornado season at the moment. They're magnificent but terrifying at the same time, especially when they get a kilometer wide eek
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#1422197 - 14 minutes 44 seconds ago Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1489
Loc: Kingaroy
I used to dream of tornadoes and big hailstorms. One dream I had I walked up to a tornado and I punched it and it dissipated.

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