Page 31 of 31 < 1 2 ... 29 30 31
Topic Options
#1426563 - 23/06/2017 16:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4219
Loc: Wynnum
marakai -
Re your comparison with thermometers. I have an expensive Davis Pro 2 and also use 5 mercury thermometers, one of which measures grass temps. In hanging mercury thermometers onto the Davis at night, they are regularly 0.4 to 0.7 deg colder than the Davis.

I even purchased an upgraded thermometer sensor for the Davis for $260( apparently the standard ones supplied with the unit at purchase are not as accurate particularly in measuring humidity ). This new sensor made no difference and still read high.
Then I got 2 el cheapo electronic units from Bunnings just for testing purposes in various locations. These too registered higher than the mercury ones, but not quite as much.

As the mercury ones were used for centuries and the electronic ones only for a few decades now, which ones are technically correct.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun84.2(75),YTD667.4(705.4),

Top
#1426582 - 23/06/2017 20:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: retired weather man]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5254
Loc: Not tellin!
RWM I wonder how widespread that is!

Top
#1426589 - 23/06/2017 22:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
MGD Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/06/2017
Posts: 2
Loc: Heathfield SA
Sorry but still looking for an answer for the lack of cold fronts in June. It seems almost record breaking but no real comments here. BOM have forecast dominant high pressure systems since April and they have been correct. I can remember the forecast made in late March saying dominating high pressure would be the order of the day with conditions getting worse in June. Absolutely spot on but they did not say what is driving it. It is not El-nino, it not IOD. I presume it must be a must be a +ve SAM with high pressures to the south. The annoying thing is that this very important factor in Southern Australian Weather does not seem to get much of a mention, yet it is as important and maybe even more important than El-nino or IOD. Can someone enlighten me about the current SAM and more importantly how long is this expected to persist. Hopefully not for long but I just don't know. Can we open a discussion about this very important driver which is affecting the whole of Southern Australia at the moment, including WA, SA and western and southern VIC and NSW

Top
#1426590 - 23/06/2017 23:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: MGD]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 285
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: MGD
Sorry but still looking for an answer for the lack of cold fronts in June. It seems almost record breaking but no real comments here. BOM have forecast dominant high pressure systems since April and they have been correct. I can remember the forecast made in late March saying dominating high pressure would be the order of the day with conditions getting worse in June. Absolutely spot on but they did not say what is driving it. It is not El-nino, it not IOD. I presume it must be a must be a +ve SAM with high pressures to the south. The annoying thing is that this very important factor in Southern Australian Weather does not seem to get much of a mention, yet it is as important and maybe even more important than El-nino or IOD. Can someone enlighten me about the current SAM and more importantly how long is this expected to persist. Hopefully not for long but I just don't know. Can we open a discussion about this very important driver which is affecting the whole of Southern Australia at the moment, including WA, SA and western and southern VIC and NSW

You should start that thread. It's a good idea. This thread always seems to be about ENSO and occasionally the IOD. They matter, but there are drivers that matter more.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

Top
#1426597 - 24/06/2017 07:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
snowbooby Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 34
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Originally Posted By: MGD
Sorry but still looking for an answer for the lack of cold fronts in June. It seems almost record breaking but no real comments here. BOM have forecast dominant high pressure systems since April and they have been correct. I can remember the forecast made in late March saying dominating high pressure would be the order of the day with conditions getting worse in June. Absolutely spot on but they did not say what is driving it. It is not El-nino, it not IOD. I presume it must be a must be a +ve SAM with high pressures to the south. The annoying thing is that this very important factor in Southern Australian Weather does not seem to get much of a mention, yet it is as important and maybe even more important than El-nino or IOD. Can someone enlighten me about the current SAM and more importantly how long is this expected to persist. Hopefully not for long but I just don't know. Can we open a discussion about this very important driver which is affecting the whole of Southern Australia at the moment, including WA, SA and western and southern VIC and NSW

You should start that thread. It's a good idea. This thread always seems to be about ENSO and occasionally the IOD. They matter, but there are drivers that matter more.


Yes things are a bit enso-centric. Really, this thread should cover it.

MGD I dont think it’s through lack of interest that questions seem to fall into a silent void at times - speaking for myself -it’s more that it is difficult to put in a nutshell and I suspect that many of us know and understand much less than we might appear to.

Stronger fronts will occur when there is a strong south to north(meridional) flow. This depends in part on the weakening of the polar vortex and when it occurs - perhaps later in the winter if we are lucky, or spring.

Top
#1426601 - 24/06/2017 09:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
sparraz Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 19/03/2014
Posts: 30
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Originally Posted By: MGD
Sorry but still looking for an answer for the lack of cold fronts in June. It seems almost record breaking but no real comments here. BOM have forecast dominant high pressure systems since April and they have been correct. I can remember the forecast made in late March saying dominating high pressure would be the order of the day with conditions getting worse in June. Absolutely spot on but they did not say what is driving it. It is not El-nino, it not IOD. I presume it must be a must be a +ve SAM with high pressures to the south. The annoying thing is that this very important factor in Southern Australian Weather does not seem to get much of a mention, yet it is as important and maybe even more important than El-nino or IOD. Can someone enlighten me about the current SAM and more importantly how long is this expected to persist. Hopefully not for long but I just don't know. Can we open a discussion about this very important driver which is affecting the whole of Southern Australia at the moment, including WA, SA and western and southern VIC and NSW

You should start that thread. It's a good idea. This thread always seems to be about ENSO and occasionally the IOD. They matter, but there are drivers that matter more.


So what should the "etc" cover in this thread??
Given that the last decade has been drier than normal in our neck of the woods here in north western Victoria and only a few being El Nino years, the "etc" would seem worthy of discussion in this thread too.

Top
#1426607 - 24/06/2017 12:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1073
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
If you are looking for a negative AAO in the near future then you are out of luck, all indications that the AAO will remain in positive (eg more high pressure systems around southern Australia) for the next 2-3 weeks at least:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index_mrf.shtml

Top
#1426615 - 24/06/2017 19:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: sparraz]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6842
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: sparraz
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Originally Posted By: MGD
Sorry but still looking for an answer for the lack of cold fronts in June. It seems almost record breaking but no real comments here. BOM have forecast dominant high pressure systems since April and they have been correct. I can remember the forecast made in late March saying dominating high pressure would be the order of the day with conditions getting worse in June. Absolutely spot on but they did not say what is driving it. It is not El-nino, it not IOD. I presume it must be a must be a +ve SAM with high pressures to the south. The annoying thing is that this very important factor in Southern Australian Weather does not seem to get much of a mention, yet it is as important and maybe even more important than El-nino or IOD. Can someone enlighten me about the current SAM and more importantly how long is this expected to persist. Hopefully not for long but I just don't know. Can we open a discussion about this very important driver which is affecting the whole of Southern Australia at the moment, including WA, SA and western and southern VIC and NSW

You should start that thread. It's a good idea. This thread always seems to be about ENSO and occasionally the IOD. They matter, but there are drivers that matter more.


So what should the "etc" cover in this thread??
Given that the last decade has been drier than normal in our neck of the woods here in north western Victoria and only a few being El Nino years, the "etc" would seem worthy of discussion in this thread too.

This thread is about climate driver discussion, meaning all of it (I would have thought).

In answer to the question regarding the SAM, ENSO, and IOD, the “issue” is probably the SAM. To “undo” this situation I think requires a realignment of the sub-tropical ridge, allowing a SW-NE frontal passage and drop in isoheight anomalies (depth) near Southern Australia.


Edited by Seira (24/06/2017 19:38)
_________________________
*Kindness is our ally.

Top
#1426616 - 24/06/2017 20:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6842
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Bottom line is the thread content is meant to be reflected in the title. To be honest mad , one sub-forum has already been lost to the archives!


Edited by Seira (24/06/2017 20:02)
_________________________
*Kindness is our ally.

Top
#1426669 - Yesterday at 23:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: retired weather man]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1735
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
marakai -
Re your comparison with thermometers. I have an expensive Davis Pro 2 and also use 5 mercury thermometers, one of which measures grass temps. In hanging mercury thermometers onto the Davis at night, they are regularly 0.4 to 0.7 deg colder than the Davis.

I even purchased an upgraded thermometer sensor for the Davis for $260( apparently the standard ones supplied with the unit at purchase are not as accurate particularly in measuring humidity ). This new sensor made no difference and still read high.
Then I got 2 el cheapo electronic units from Bunnings just for testing purposes in various locations. These too registered higher than the mercury ones, but not quite as much.
As the mercury ones were used for centuries and the electronic ones only for a few decades now, which ones are technically correct.


In reality ...does it really matter ?

When the anomaly is based upon a sliding decal scale, it is all relative anyway.
IE: pointless.
When it media matters to termites dicks of a degree in measurements of temperature scale it is beyond reason really.


But in today's world that seems to be the reality of reporting. 100ths of a degree really do matter.

Of course there is no real total global measurement, everyone concerned with the current Global Mean conveniently ignores the previous Global mean that inconveniently denotes a higher global average than current. But then we best not report on that right?

30 year average means while being the benchmarks are quite inconvenient when used as an empirical measure to compare recent temperatures.

Empirical Measurements are sooo inconvenient when it comes to measuring actual climate change over the historical record.

What was the 30 year benchmark 50 years ago ?

Top
Page 31 of 31 < 1 2 ... 29 30 31


Who's Online
4 registered (Snowies, Ronfishes, Wave Rider, 1 invisible), 261 Guests and 4 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Darkhazord, looselipslou, stormspinner1, WayneM, woodburn (Gail)
Forum Stats
29297 Members
32 Forums
23625 Topics
1454179 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image