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#1413398 - 19/03/2017 15:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1617
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Those 2c+ temps in NINO 1 and 2 is starting to cause all sorts of problem in South America

http://news.trust.org/item/20170317231203-gvjhc/


Thanks for posting that. Not surprised at all, the level of warming out there is insane both on the surface and subsurface.

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#1413431 - 19/03/2017 16:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1509
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the S Wes...
Wow ,10 times their average wet season rain.
_________________________

Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch50 and ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.

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#1413826 - 21/03/2017 09:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2454
Loc: Buderim


Nino 3.4 index now up to its highest value since the start of the year (just barely).

So much for a significant cooling that the models had failed to predict.

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#1413884 - 21/03/2017 14:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6133
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
What do you mean? When did the models predict significant cooling?

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#1413896 - 21/03/2017 15:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4172
Loc: Brisbane
There was significant cooling. The Nino 3.4 anomaly value dropped from a peak of 2.5 to minus 0.5 (not too

I would further note that in the 82/83, 87/88 and 97/98 El-Nino events, the lowest 3.4 value occurred after a temporary rebound following the initial drop of the peak 3.4 value.

With many indicators showing that the current warming might have peaked I'm sceptical of the forecasts for a return to an El-Nino this year. I'm much more likely to expect a return to cool neutral by the end of the year with a small chance of a La Nina.

I would put the likelihood of an El-Nino event as very small despite the current +2 anomalies in the Nino 1+2 region.

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#1413905 - 21/03/2017 15:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6133
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
The trade winds just keep blowing above average too for the next 2 weeks at least. I'm still not sure where this huge El-Nino event that the models are predicting is going to come from. Subsurface is one thing but so long as the trades are strong then warming won't be as significant on the surface.

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#1413916 - 21/03/2017 16:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6133
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Also don't forget how in March of 2014, the majority of the ECMWF members were going for similar conditions to what they are now, then compare it to what actually happened...it was weak at best:



Look especially after May...warming suddenly stopped when every member but one said it wouldn't.

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#1414023 - 21/03/2017 20:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1617
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
I think the only thing preventing Nino from skyrocketing is the trades, but only for the short-term. The waters are scorching out there on top and beneath the water. There's no way that heat is going to dissipate any time soon. I highly doubt we'll see anything below a minor El-Nino this year.

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#1414062 - 21/03/2017 22:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1818
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Scorching?

Where is it scorching?

If anything the whole pacific is a lot cooler then just before the 2015/2016 El Nino.

Sea level anomalies are nothing much.

I like many others think it will get warm, but nothing too spectacular. May even lead into a La Nina.

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#1414065 - 21/03/2017 22:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1617
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

The whole eastern Pacific is baking. Sub-surface down to 100 metres is warmer than average with some a hot zone closer to the surface and it just keeps building. As soon as the trades weaken, the Pacific won't stand much chance.

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#1414104 - 22/03/2017 08:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2454
Loc: Buderim
Compare now with 2015. Pacific wide surface temps look comparable to me. 2015 had the 'blob' of warm temps in NE. North Pacific is cooler now, but the tropical south Pacific is very warm all over. One of the weakest SH tropical cyclone activities in history has contributed to this, and held back el nino development as no cyclones and few lows have been around to assist WWBs.

Comparing the equatorial subsurface shows anomalies at above +5 in March 97, above +4 in March 2015, but only between +1 and +2 currently.

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#1414191 - 22/03/2017 13:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 98
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
My ENSO Opinion.
Atmosphere = Cool Neutral
Ocean = Warm Neutral
We need both to couple at El Niņo levels. Atmosphere needs to get closer to El Niņo for one. La Niņa is slightly possible.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au

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#1414278 - 22/03/2017 17:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 98
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2017/03/first-australia-snow-season-outlook.html

Is about the snow, but I also discuss SSTAs in the Bight and the Tasman which may be of interest to this thread.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au

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#1414341 - 22/03/2017 20:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1468
Loc: Kingaroy
All that heat has to go somewhere. Something tells me that we will be smashed next year and into 2019.

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