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#1422062 - Yesterday at 16:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Bello Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/07/2012
Posts: 349
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
That image is behind a wall Snowy, can you upload and paste again, would like to see it? CFS has been consistently very clear on this WWB for a good week if not longer, will be interested to see how it pans out.
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo

POAMA and CFS are clearly not on par.
A strong WWB on CFS, compared to one on POAMA to the Far West Pacific and Eastern Pacific.
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#1422068 - Yesterday at 16:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Bello Weather]
Snowy Hibbo Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 221
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Bello Weather
That image is behind a wall Snowy, can you upload and paste again, would like to see it? CFS has been consistently very clear on this WWB for a good week if not longer, will be interested to see how it pans out.
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo

POAMA and CFS are clearly not on par.
A strong WWB on CFS, compared to one on POAMA to the Far West Pacific and Eastern Pacific.


Sorry Bello, I forgot to host my images, as the POAMA database is locked to the public. Thanks for the heads up.
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#1422077 - Yesterday at 18:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1892
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Given the current state of the Pacific the current CFS forecast of a substantial and long lived WWB starting in the next day or three would seem to pretty much nail this as at least a moderate el nino. However the CFS ENSO forecast is still pretty wishy washy about whether it will be el nino or just warm neutral.


What I find interesting is the trade winds have been blowing and blowing, but one WWB and it is an El Nino maker.

Wouldn't the pacific be a bit more resilient then that?

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#1422079 - Yesterday at 18:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1488
Loc: Kingaroy
There is still a lot of heat left over from the last El Nino, it wouldn't take much to kick it off.

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#1422083 - Yesterday at 19:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6212
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: RC
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Given the current state of the Pacific the current CFS forecast of a substantial and long lived WWB starting in the next day or three would seem to pretty much nail this as at least a moderate el nino. However the CFS ENSO forecast is still pretty wishy washy about whether it will be el nino or just warm neutral.


What I find interesting is the trade winds have been blowing and blowing, but one WWB and it is an El Nino maker.

Wouldn't the pacific be a bit more resilient then that?


Yep, hence why a lot of people still aren't buying the El-Nino solution yet. Something I've noticed with the last WWB and the one next week is that they seem to be very focused above PNG but they don't get much further east than that. In fact, long term GFS & EC have continuing trades right through the rest of the Pacific for the next two weeks - hardly El-Ninoish I would think?

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#1422085 - Yesterday at 19:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 221
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

There is still heaps of convection in the Western Pacific. That's rather La Niņa like.

POAMA is predicting continued Negative OLR anomalies over the next month.
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#1422101 - Today at 05:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2478
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: RC


What I find interesting is the trade winds have been blowing and blowing, but one WWB and it is an El Nino maker.

Wouldn't the pacific be a bit more resilient then that?


The last three months have had above average trade winds, but a mix with periods of weaker westerly activity mixed in. This has been enough to see nino 3.4 temps rise from below 0 to a latest weekly of 0.5. So on threshold for el nino by cpc definition (based on 3-month average though). With a real WWB now happening, hard to see anything but further warming.


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#1422105 - Today at 08:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 221
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
GFS is heading towards a fairly big WWB. EC has a small one moving west. The tables may now turn towards El Nino. Let's see what happens now before we conclude El Nino though.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (Today at 08:12)
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#1422133 - Today at 14:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6778
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Might want to think about getting your links (anyone's, POAMA or otherwise) fixed before it starts displaying really weird and unwarranted internet security warning constantly in the future smile . I pretty much can't open this page in this thread without getting a very strange security warning. It's not the first time either.

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#1422141 - Today at 15:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Seira]
Snowy Hibbo Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 221
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Seira
Might want to think about getting your links (anyone's, POAMA or otherwise) fixed before it starts displaying really weird and unwarranted internet security warning constantly in the future smile . I pretty much can't open this page in this thread without getting a very strange security warning. It's not the first time either.

Sorry my fault. I will host all images from now on. The security warnings would be from the Government servers. I will work on fixing any issues. Would you mind telling me the message?
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#1422142 - Today at 15:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 221
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2017/04/second-australian-snow-season-outlook.html

Have uploaded some POAMA outlooks and other charts and data to my latest Snow Season Outlook.
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#1422143 - Today at 15:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Bello Weather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/07/2012
Posts: 349
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Originally Posted By: Seira
Might want to think about getting your links (anyone's, POAMA or otherwise) fixed before it starts displaying really weird and unwarranted internet security warning constantly in the future smile . I pretty much can't open this page in this thread without getting a very strange security warning. It's not the first time either.

Sorry my fault. I will host all images from now on. The security warnings would be from the Government servers. I will work on fixing any issues. Would you mind telling me the message?

The message that pops up asks you to log into the BoM site, I get it as well every time I open this thread. Perhaps ask an Admin to remove the offending image? Appreciate all you do BTW, loving your posts smile
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#1422146 - Today at 15:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Snowy Hibbo Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 221
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Thanks Bello. Yeah the moderator has been notified, happy for it to be deleted if it is causing issue.
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#1422153 - 43 minutes 45 seconds ago Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Homer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 4902
Loc: Dural
Yeh. Has been causing an issue for me as well.
Hopefully admin can sort it out.

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