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#1423878 - 21/05/2017 13:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6808
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Originally Posted By: Seira
Originally Posted By: marakai
And yet every week day, the likes of Koshie or Trioli are harping away about something that has no actual scientific proof at all.

You’ll have to enlighten me on that one smile .

Kochie and Trioli are both on breakfast TV(Channel 7 and ABC respectively). I certainly don't think breakfast TV shows science correctly.

Well, you learn something everyday I guess, as the saying goes grin .
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#1423887 - 21/05/2017 18:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: marakai]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6362
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: marakai
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: marakai


Something that I run into all the time and have done for a very long time on these forums. Models are just Models.
Computer generated outcome based upon pre-ordained outcomes is not science.
You just can't model a chaotic system without including all of the variables, and to date we don't have even half of the variables as a known ingredient for the current models to work with.

Science is not infallible, it never is. Even the best of current cutting edge science is prone to either mistakes, lack of input, or the fact that the future will falsify current knowledge.

Even the most state of the art current Climate models are prone to the information with which they are programmed with. Who could program a Climate Model on the behaviour of Cloud patterns or the behaviour of Humidity over the Equator with greater than 95% confidence based upon current knowledge ?

Reading just the current past 12 months or so of this thread/associated ones is proof positive that not even the best funded and apparent best qualified people on the planet actually don't have a clue as to what will happen until it actually has.

Don't get me wrong here, I'm not claiming any more knowledge than a fence post, just pointing out that the prognostications of those that Taxpayers spend Millions upon Millions on are no closer apparently to actual predictive science wise than we were 40 years ago.



Models are calculations based on the laws of physics, and are just as much science as any other prediction made based on scientific principles. Very simple weather models could be run on pen and paper, but more calculations provides more accuracy, and so computer power is used to do better than even the biggest army of humans with pen and paper calculations could ever hope to achieve.

No scientific prediction can take into account all the possible variables, but science identifies what are considered the most important variables and ignores the rest. For example calculations of the motion of bodies under gravitational interactions - which can be shown to be inherently chaotic for any number of bodies from 3 or more - can be quite accurate ignoring relativistic effects etc.

It is easy to look at the past history of ENSO predictions for some models such as ECMWF, and see that in 95% of times, the actual result has been within the range forecast by the model.


I would beg to disagree here:

Quote:
Models are calculations based on the laws of physics, and are just as much science as any other prediction made based on scientific principles.

Models are just 'Models' They may have some grounding in Science per se, but in Science when something does not work out or is disproved/falsified it is thrown out and a new avenue of causation is entertained until it is either accepted or otherwise disproved.
You just don't tweak the variables of an experiment until it tells you what you want it to. If a Model hindcasts well but is unable to accurately predict, then it is for all means and purposes useless for it's stated purpose other than as a base for further research practices.

Quote:
No scientific prediction can take into account all the possible variables, but science identifies what are considered the most important variables and ignores the rest. For example calculations of the motion of bodies under gravitational interactions - which can be shown to be inherently chaotic for any number of bodies from 3 or more - can be quite accurate ignoring relativistic effects etc.


I agree completely with your first sentence, but then I find myself questioning the ability of said models to interpret things such as localised humidity and the variables of cloud cover in tropical thunderstorms, the cooling effect they have in areas such as Darwin on a semi daily basis throughout the wet season up there and multiple other places along and either side of the Equator as the MJO rolls through such areas.
The onset of monsoon activity in the north of our country alone , and the localised effects such as lightning storms placing particulate matter into the atmosphere through sparking bushfire's and on and on and on.
Models as you said just sort of take the basics, without all the variables into account, and they are based through sheer data limitations alone upon a very small window of time compared to the magnitude of just the last hundred thousand years, the last million years, or even the just the last ten thousand years since the last real ice age.
Thirty to Fifty years of all our quasi accurate climate data compared to even the history of Human agriculture of a mere 10-15 thousand years, is not exactly cause for celebration nor is it cause for blindly accepting the data that a computer spits out after being asked to compute an algorithm based upon inputs that are unable to even compute cloud cover.

Sadly though the whole of the human race is currently asked to accept that a bunch of scientists who sit around on the taxpayers dollar and create all these 'Climate models' which are consistently wrong and have zero skill at all of predicting our future weather.

And yet every week day, the likes of Koshie or Trioli are harping away about something that has no actual scientific proof at all.

Poor bugger me my country!!!


Nailed it. The silent majority ARE out there!

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#1423898 - 21/05/2017 20:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Morham Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 23/01/2017
Posts: 26
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Like most human technology, predicting weather and climate will get better and more accurate.

Quantum computing and the incredible processing power it offers may allow us to throw more of the infinite variables that is climate into the mix to allow more accurate calculations....and predictions.

Write off human ingenuity at your own peril.

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#1423950 - 22/05/2017 17:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4256
Loc: Brisbane
Trades looking pretty firmly established on extended GFS for at least the coming fortnight albeit needs to be taken with a grain of salt beyond 3 days.

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#1423964 - 22/05/2017 18:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Locke]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6233
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Locke
Trades looking pretty firmly established on extended GFS for at least the coming fortnight albeit needs to be taken with a grain of salt beyond 3 days.


Same with EC, very very solid trades.

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#1424073 - 23/05/2017 15:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 429
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Anyone else seeing contradicting sub surface temps?

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#1424075 - 23/05/2017 15:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4256
Loc: Brisbane
I wonder if the majority of the action seen over the past 12 month is partially reflective of residual Kelvin and Rossby wave activity following a very strong El-Nino event. (subsurface wave action reflecting back and forth across the Pacific Basin)

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#1424076 - 23/05/2017 16:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6233
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD

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#1424078 - 23/05/2017 16:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4256
Loc: Brisbane
Gotta love BOM keeping the El Nino watch when there own predictive modelling is forecasting otherwise.

Still with half the international models still showing El Nino conditions I guess I can see why they kept the watch even if their own modelling contradicts it.

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#1424080 - 23/05/2017 17:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5250
Loc: Not tellin!
Well the people barracking for an Elnino may just have to pack the pom-poms away for another season. You can almost hear the sobbing over the ether.........

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#1424081 - 23/05/2017 17:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1912
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
I would not write it off just yet. I still expect Nino 3.4 to warm. I do not expect a super El Nino, but a minor one is still possible. Models are still going for a 60% chance by the latest update http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

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#1424087 - 23/05/2017 18:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1593
5-day sub-surface temperatures
The sub-surface temperature map for the 5 days ending 21 May shows temperatures were generally close to average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In the eastern Pacific weak warm anomalies are apparent between the surface and a depth of 100 m. In the central Pacific there were weak cool anomalies at a depth of 100 to 200 m; these cool anomalies have strengthened over the past fortnight and are positioned further to the west than they were two weeks ago.
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#1424088 - 23/05/2017 18:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1593
Trade winds
Trade winds for the 5 days ending 21 May were close to average over most of the tropical Pacific, with trades slightly stronger than average over the far western equatorial Pacific. However models suggest they may strengthen during the next couple of weeks, suggesting further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean waters is unlikely during the coming fortnight.
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening, or even reversal, of the trade winds.
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#1424089 - 23/05/2017 18:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1593
Further warming? NINO 3.4 temps haven't budged for the last month so if anything they will probably cool for a while.

Index to 30/4/2017 to 7/5/2017 to 14/5/2017 to 21/5/2017
NINO3 +0.7 °C +0.5 °C +0.6 °C +0.5 °C
NINO3.4 +0.5 °C +0.5 °C +0.5 °C +0.5 °C
NINO4 +0.2 °C +0.3 °C +0.4 °C +0.3 °C
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#1424102 - 23/05/2017 21:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17197
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
BoM.....

Tropical Pacific remains warmer than average
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. With the tropical Pacific Ocean warmer than average, and around half the international climate models reaching El Niño levels later in the year, development of El Niño in 2017 cannot be ruled out. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is around a 50% chance—double the normal likelihood—of El Niño developing in 2017.
Sea surface temperatures across the central tropical Pacific remained half a degree warmer than average over the past month. This is below the El Niño threshold of +0.8 °C. Further warming in the coming fortnight is unlikely, with trade winds forecast to be stronger than average. All other ENSO indicators are also neutral.
Five of eight international climate models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to warm above El Niño thresholds during the second half of 2017. However virtually all models now suggest less warming is likely to occur compared to their previous outlooks, indicating any event may be weak. Models have lower accuracy forecasting El Niño during the autumn months, though accuracy begins to improve from June.
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