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#1444915 - 15/12/2017 10:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1642
Loc: Kingaroy
Didn't the MJO get stuck in the western Pacific in late 2009? A strong El Nino in 2018 so soon after the record breaking El Nino in 2015/2016 will be a good indicator that something has indeed changed.

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#1444920 - 15/12/2017 13:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1395
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I provided the reference to refute the implication of a couple previous posts implying that MJO stalling in the western pacific is reflective of La Nina. Strong MJO activity in western pacific is associated with el nino and not la nina.


2 issues - firstly I'm not sure if you're being disingenuous or not, but there is a significant difference between a stalling MJO and a strong MJO pulse.

I don't think either was implied. What was implied was that the stalling MJO would not significantly impact ENSO, which proved correct.

Secondly is - I note Chidong Zhang noted in 2001 the significance of a strong MJO pulse upon ENSO SST's, however the lag time noted is roughly 1-2 months. Given the strong MJO pulse of October, where are the resultant impacts upon ENSO SST's? Are we in new ground or does this prove what Long Road Home et al have been saying?

I also note that the forecast has it weakening significantly and becoming indiscernible. Surely this would also impact/reduce/remove any forecast WWB's?

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#1444939 - Yesterday at 09:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1642
Loc: Kingaroy
The SOI is dropping again back toward neutral, it will be interesting to see if the BOM keep the ENSO Tracker at La Nina or will they drop it back to La Nina Alert

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#1444940 - Yesterday at 09:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2783
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino


2 issues - firstly I'm not sure if you're being disingenuous or not, but there is a significant difference between a stalling MJO and a strong MJO pulse.


Stalling MJO pulse means westerly winds in western pacific blowing for longer and a greater warming impact. In general a weaker MJO signal this time around than October would be expected to generate less westerly anomalies, but the link is weak, and we are clearly seeing far more westerlies being generated than in October.

Originally Posted By: Kino

I don't think either was implied. What was implied was that the stalling MJO would not significantly impact ENSO, which proved correct.


No it hasn't. Wait 2 months and see how much warming we get.

Originally Posted By: Kino

Secondly is - I note Chidong Zhang noted in 2001 the significance of a strong MJO pulse upon ENSO SST's, however the lag time noted is roughly 1-2 months. Given the strong MJO pulse of October, where are the resultant impacts upon ENSO SST's? Are we in new ground or does this prove what Long Road Home et al have been saying?

There is a warm Kelvin wave at about 120W generated by October MJO. Despite the strongest easterly anomalies of the year through much of the central region the last few weeks have seen SSTs through most of the east rise a little.


Originally Posted By: Kino

I also note that the forecast has it weakening significantly and becoming indiscernible. Surely this would also impact/reduce/remove any forecast WWB's?



Westerlies are likely to slow down once the MJO weakens, but there is no guaranteed link between MJO and westerlies. Before that happens we will see a lot of westerlies.


Edited by Mike Hauber (Yesterday at 09:50)

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#1444944 - Yesterday at 10:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Chris Stumer]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1395
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
The SOI is dropping again back toward neutral, it will be interesting to see if the BOM keep the ENSO Tracker at La Nina or will they drop it back to La Nina Alert


That's a natural reaction to the MJO passing & stalling in Zone 6/7.

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#1444945 - Yesterday at 10:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1395
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Kino


2 issues - firstly I'm not sure if you're being disingenuous or not, but there is a significant difference between a stalling MJO and a strong MJO pulse.


Stalling MJO pulse means westerly winds in western pacific blowing for longer and a greater warming impact. In general a weaker MJO signal this time around than October would be expected to generate less westerly anomalies, but the link is weak, and we are clearly seeing far more westerlies being generated than in October.

Originally Posted By: Kino

I don't think either was implied. What was implied was that the stalling MJO would not significantly impact ENSO, which proved correct.


No it hasn't. Wait 2 months and see how much warming we get.

Originally Posted By: Kino


Secondly is - I note Chidong Zhang noted in 2001 the significance of a strong MJO pulse upon ENSO SST's, however the lag time noted is roughly 1-2 months. Given the strong MJO pulse of October, where are the resultant impacts upon ENSO SST's? Are we in new ground or does this prove what Long Road Home et al have been saying?

There is a warm Kelvin wave at about 120W generated by October MJO. Despite the strongest easterly anomalies of the year through much of the central region the last few weeks have seen SSTs through most of the east rise a little.


Originally Posted By: Kino

I also note that the forecast has it weakening significantly and becoming indiscernible. Surely this would also impact/reduce/remove any forecast WWB's?



Westerlies are likely to slow down once the MJO weakens, but there is no guaranteed link between MJO and westerlies. Before that happens we will see a lot of westerlies.


The forecast deep Low / possible Typhoon will take care of any westerlies according to ACCESS and replace them with gale force easterlies that will easily erase any warming by dragging colder anomalies up and across ENSO areas, surely?

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#1444950 - Yesterday at 10:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1395
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Missed the edit - but it'll also kill off the MJO as well?


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#1444965 - Yesterday at 14:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1704
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
models tend to overestimate the warming most of the time nowadays.


Models sometimes overestimate the warming. Othertimes they go the other way. Some examples from CFS:

Early October CFS was forecasting we'd be somewhere about -1.2 by now. November is not over of course, but we are currently sitting somewhere near -0.7 with 10 days to go.

May 2016 CFS forecast a La Nina peaking near -1.8, compared to a peak of about -0.7

March 2015 forecasting nino 3.4 to rise to just over 1.5 by November. It reached 2.9.


It wasn't that far off.. -1.0c for November the end result going by NOAA

http://www.weathernationtv.com/news/december-2017-la-nina-update-double-double/
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#1444966 - Yesterday at 14:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1704
I still think Models do the overwarming moreso than overcooling
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#1444976 - Yesterday at 16:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1395
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
I still think Models do the overwarming moreso than overcooling


Absolutely esp since we’re not privy to any inbuilt biases they have. Rubbish in rubbish out.

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#1444985 - Yesterday at 19:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1642
Loc: Kingaroy
I wonder what is causing the unusual activity in the South China Sea? It's killing our monsoon.

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