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#1431058 - 18/08/2017 08:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 169
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Mega
Trade winds just keep on blowin':



A lot of the easterly anomalies are mostly to the west of 180 where they supress warm kelvin wave activity, but don't do much directly to cool the nino regions. Westerly anomalies are showing in the east Pacific. Still some area of enhanced trade winds far enough east to be a cooling influence if verified.

CFS is similar but more pessimistic with a wider area of esterly anomalies and a narrower area of enhanced trades. Overall i'd say CFS has westelies dominating. Latest TAO data seems to confirm a weak warm kelvin wave is in progress, so i'd expect warming for the next few weeks if CFS verifies.

Also both CFS and EC show that westerly anomalies are currently dominating much of central and eastern pacific, however TAO charts are showing easterly anomalies. Sometimes the TAO charts can be a bit flaky right at the end, and its possible that they will change to agree more with CFS/EC in the next day or three. Current EC and GFS forecast models suggest westerly anomalies strengthening quite a lot, but only briefly around 48 to 72 hours, however i consider these the least reliable indication of future trade wind activity - but much better within this relatively short time period.


And yet, the Pacific continues to cool...as forecast by most major models now.

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#1431071 - 18/08/2017 09:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2513
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino


And yet, the Pacific continues to cool...as forecast by most major models now.




In danger of getting caught up in a linguistic argument instead of climate argument - I'd suggest that we have seen an abrupt cooling, but that it is so far too short to qualify as 'continues to cool'

Compare the period of early 2016 with a drop rate equivelant to the recent drop, but sustained over a long period with the drops similar to the current drop near Jan 2015, Jul 2014, and Jan 2014.

CFS and JMA forecast a cooling sustained over several months. EC, BOM, GMA forecast an abrupt drop to August or September followed by slow warming.

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#1431076 - 18/08/2017 09:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 169
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
On either a linguistic or climatic argument, the Pacific is cooling. Climatically it has cooled 2.5c in 18 months; linguistically it has cooled 0.5c in only 1 month. Either way it is cooling,

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#1431213 - Yesterday at 00:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5273
Loc: Not tellin!
I would also say it's cooling. But Mike has a point, it did do similar things 2 years ago. I don't think we are going into a massive La Niņa and we are certainly not going into a monster Elnino. The SST anom loop that put up was really interesting in the way it seemed to show the trades kicking in and making the warm water pick up the pace moving west. Also liking the waters pushing through into the Indian ocean

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#1431218 - Yesterday at 08:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1500
Loc: Kingaroy
In 2016 there was so much heat left over from the El Nino that La Nina couldn't form and the effects of the El Nino were felt right through to early 2017. Once all the left over heat has been dissipated, a La Ninalike pattern could form.

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#1431223 - Yesterday at 11:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kev in Bello]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6468
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Kev in Bello
Wow, don't they just. Can see why the models think a La Nina is coming on...
Have been watching this one: https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellit...fic_930x580.gif

.....


Impressive spill of warm water into the NW WA region of the Indian Ocean. Moisture is already impacting Victoria from this.

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#1431224 - Yesterday at 11:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 169
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Yeah like looks like the Indonesian flow-thru is kicking into gear.

Btw I didn't say we're gong into La Niņa just the pacific is cooling. No chance of El Niņo or even warm neutral imo. Possible cool neutral, next few weeks should see that lock in.

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#1431279 - Today at 09:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 169
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus


Some widespread cooling of the oceans going on.

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#1431300 - Today at 16:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 459
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
The cooling going on right now in Nino regions is crazy!

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#1431317 - Today at 18:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6468
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
.... looking forward to a stormy spring for Victoria!

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