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#1460729 - 03/04/2018 18:15 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1236
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Your right p.
Imo it's still to early and dry to be
Conducting planned burns??
Yeah we've had 30 odd mm of rain but
That's real enough at this stage and
Considering how dry it's been for a long
Period!
But the dse are the experts I suppose ?

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#1460737 - 03/04/2018 18:34 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6885
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
...and not much further east of you, we only got 16mm rain for all of March!

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#1460893 - 04/04/2018 15:56 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 900
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
Well I can't speak for all parts but around here we're getting single figure nights with little to no breeze and even during the day it's not getting past mid 20s, again wind is light. Perfect autumn burning weather. You can get a 'hot' clean burn and still keep it under control because the fuel bed is fairly dry and the night time temps and what inversion there is really snufs it out. To get the same intensity/scorch height in spring when you've got damp ground fuel you need far more 'dangerous' conditions re wind, temp, and humidity etc.

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#1460897 - 04/04/2018 16:20 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 749
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Around here conditions are as dry as have been since early spring (as Petros says: 16mm at best for March - nothing probably for first half of April) but from a DEWLP point-of-view given the need/want to achieve burning targets, the conditions are pretty safe - as dlcat says, cool (though not THAT cool nights) and little wind and shorter days). But ... wouldn't want to be too confident or too lax in planning control lines for planned burns as next week could be interesting (!)Note 36/37C for Mallee next weekend.

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#1460931 - 04/04/2018 18:52 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 900
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
Yeah, that I didn't say. There's a window for smaller burns that can be blacked out but I'd be wary of the spike next weekend. From a DELWP/FFM point of view they've probably also got seasonal staff on extended contract so earlier season burns are probably easier for them to juggle.

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#1460988 - 05/04/2018 10:43 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Warm to hot for North from this Sunday to Wednesday and worry very dry windy... Bad time camp fires is big risk...

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#1461544 - 12/04/2018 11:52 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 749
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Emergency warning for fire at Taminick and Thoona.

Hot, gusty and dusty here atm - potential for fire and severity well above the rated Very High.

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#1461672 - 13/04/2018 17:32 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Dandongadale - Yarrarabul fire causing lots of trouble especially access 10 aircraft working fire currently. Fire is expected to grow significantly tomorrow
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1461676 - 13/04/2018 17:42 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1236
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah logansi, I find this period interesting
Regarding potential fire weather.
There forecasting 100-120km winds for
Much of the state from later tonight through
Tommoz!
Is there likely to be cloud and rain about with
This or will there be periods where potentially
Fire could get going with these winds??

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#1461693 - 13/04/2018 21:00 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
KERANG-QUAMBATOOK RD QUAMBATOOK - Make tankers 20 Fire threating Property, requesting Watch and Act

At least 2km long - spreading rapidly

KERANG-QUAMBATOOK RD QUAMBATOOK - Make Tankers 10



Edited by logansi (13/04/2018 21:08)
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1461719 - 14/04/2018 09:51 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Dandongadale - Yarrarabul has grown from 80ha to 700ha overnight, large contingency of aircraft doing what they can but reports from fire ground is that fire has blown up and spotting hard
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1461723 - 14/04/2018 10:26 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 749
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: logansi
Dandongadale - Yarrarabul has grown from 80ha to 700ha overnight, large contingency of aircraft doing what they can but reports from fire ground is that fire has blown up and spotting hard


Under expected wind conditions, in the country it's in, unless there's significant rain, there'll be no holding it today (or tomorrow).

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#1461726 - 14/04/2018 11:43 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 900
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
Not surprised. Anyone know whether it's. In stringy bark or ash country? Suspect the humidity will have been high enough long enough that the fmc of the ash bark ribbons will be high enough to retard it's burn time so we're not going to see really long range /fire complex growing spotting today but that's just gut feeling.

EDIT: This is the positive I can see, it's still going to spot, just perhaps not with stuff burning aloft for 10s of minutes. Still have the short range intensity increasing/draw fire feeding stuff.


Edited by dlcat1 (14/04/2018 11:46)

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#1461728 - 14/04/2018 11:57 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 749
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Sorry dlcat - not sure. More likely ash country.

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#1461729 - 14/04/2018 12:02 Re: 2017/18 Victorian Bushfire News and Discussion [Re: logansi]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 900
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
Cheers TB.

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