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#1479179 - Yesterday at 17:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2830
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Kino
25% is insignificant compared to 75%...

IMPORTANT or LARGE of which 25% is neither. Now youíre trying to rewrite the dictionary as well 🙄🙄🙄🙄


Any scientist or engineer will tell you that 25% is frequently very significant. Try building a bridge that is 25% too short.


Weíre not talking about frequency, weíre taking about contribution. Big difference.

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#1479181 - Yesterday at 17:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18717
Loc: The Beach.
2009 peer reviewed paper is fine but 2018 study on IOD isn't.

laugh
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1479187 - Yesterday at 17:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3436
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino


Generally, but however for the recent weather the EXPERTS have said itís the IOD. There is no more to debate, really.


They said significant. That can be called 'big' or 'important'. It cannot be called 'bigger' or 'more important'.

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#1479188 - Yesterday at 17:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3436
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
2009 peer reviewed paper is fine but 2018 study on IOD isn't.

laugh



Are you trying to pass of a poorly written news article as being the equal of peer reviewed research?

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#1479194 - Yesterday at 17:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 722
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Originally Posted By: Kino



[quote0]

Generally, but however for the recent weather the EXPERTS have said itís the IOD. There is no more to debate, really.


Just reposting for future reference.

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#1479223 - Yesterday at 19:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18717
Loc: The Beach.
I'm sure GnL won't mind me quoting this here. He is in Cardwell. Given the decile map Mike put up for FNQ during ElNino , it makes for interesting reading.


Originally Posted By: Green n Lumpy
What a topsy-turvy few weeks we've had weather wise.

A bit over 100mm day so far, which brings our total for the past six days to 647mm. It has smashed our December average and with three weeks still to go, is the wettest December for 102 years.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1479225 - Yesterday at 19:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2397
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
So rare isolated weather events are now to be considered normal common events?

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#1479227 - Yesterday at 19:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18717
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: RC
So rare isolated weather events are now to be considered normal common events?


Only to those who like trying to put words in other people's mouths.

Considering he stated it was a 1 in 102 year event that's one hell of a long bow you are drawing there. How anyone could extrapolate "common" from that is astounding.

_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Top
#1479231 - Yesterday at 20:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2397
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Because what will happen is the next monthly BOM rain chart will show a blue area and some people will say. Look look proof there was no El Nino conditions.

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#1479233 - Yesterday at 20:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18717
Loc: The Beach.
laugh

People won't need any maps as there is no ElNino as of BoM's last update and if it is declared in their next update it will be too late in the year to have a significant impact everywhere except the north east of Australia, right where a 102 year old rainfall record has fallen just a week into the month.

crazy
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Top
#1479235 - Yesterday at 20:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 339
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Peer reviewed Research showing that generally ENSO and Blocking are the strongest drivers on Australian rainfall.


[quote0]The amount of rainfall variance explained by individual drivers is highest in eastern Australia and in spring, where it approaches 50% in association with ENSO and blocking.



At the end maps are shown for Australia of which driver is most important (fig 15). If you look closely you can find the pale blue colour for IOD influence amongst a sea of dark blue for ENSO influence.


Generally, but however for the recent weather the EXPERTS have said itís the IOD. There is no more to debate, really. [/quote]

Gosh I canít wait till the experts, who you have frequently derided for being a bunch of conspiratorial hacks, go against whatever point you are trying to push (rubs hands in anticipation).

Re significance, 25% is plenty significant. Think about it this way. If say the average rainfall in winter for a given area was say 400mm, observing 25% less, 300mm for the period would almost most certainly fall 1 standard deviation away from the mean, with a dataset of 30yrs plus and depending on the location, it may even approach 2sdís. 1 sd either side of the mean accounts for 66% of all scores, meaning you have only a 1 in 3 chance of observing a score beyond that. 2sdís accounts for 95% of all scores, so depending on the level of variance in a locations weather, a 25% drop may be very significant indeed.
Scaling up to say a state or national level when describing rainfall, temp etc, has the advantage of smoothing the variance associated with regional weather, allowing a more general, bigger picture, to emerge.


Edited by Eigerwand (Yesterday at 20:33)

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#1479244 - Yesterday at 21:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18717
Loc: The Beach.
Some observations from Central and North Qld bearing in mind we are only 10 days in .

Cairns Airport December average 176mm
This month 208mm

Bowen Long term average 163mm
This month 209mm

Mackay Long term average 133mm
This month 207mm

Hardly isolated.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1479247 - Yesterday at 21:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2397
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
See that is the thing you fail to grasp, you are counting a very unusual rain event as a normal occurrence.

If these areas were to receive no more rain this month, the maps would still show it was a really good month for rain.

Comments I have have heard is over the past few years there are less rain events that drop say 100mm over a week and more rain events that drop 100mm in two hours. To a monthly or yearly rainfall map it does not differentiate the difference.

But to people in the agricultural sector it is a huge difference as the 100mm in two hours all runs off into the sea, while the 100mm over a week all goes into the soil.

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#1479250 - Yesterday at 21:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18717
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: RC
See that is the thing you fail to grasp, you are counting a very unusual rain event as a normal occurrence.





Tropical Low in December. Who'd have thought?
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Top
#1479251 - Yesterday at 21:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3436
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
laugh

People won't need any maps as there is no ElNino as of BoM's last update and if it is declared in their next update it will be too late in the year to have a significant impact everywhere except the north east of Australia, right where a 102 year old rainfall record has fallen just a week into the month.

crazy


Yes, the dry weather while ENSO was trending towards el nino was caused by IOD because no el nino was officially declared. Even though most of the dry weather was before October, which was when the IOD was declared. And even though the dry weather was strongest in the east, where ENSO influence dominates, and weaker in central Australia, where IOD has a more important role. And even though in the vast majority of past occasions weather has been dry whenever conditions have been trending towards el nino, before el nino thresholds are reached, and also in cases where thresholds were never reached.

crazy indeed

Repeat after me. BOM haven't declared el nino. Therefore I winnzz.

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#1479252 - Yesterday at 21:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18717
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


Repeat after me. BOM haven't declared el nino. Therefore I winnzz.


...and you have the gall to accuse others of personal attacks Mike. I'm not the one parading himself as the ENSO messiah whilst trashing the reputation of BoM, NASA and brushing aside the contribution of Thunderstruck , RWM and the various other METS and experts in the field.


Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
And even though in the vast majority of past occasions weather has been dry whenever conditions have been trending towards el nino, before el nino thresholds are reached



Except of course it is also coupled to the atmosphere during Spring in the development stage which causes the MJO to bypass the maritime continent and re-emerge in the central pacific which has not occurred this year. No coupling = No drivers =neutral ENSO state.

Indeed crazy

Meanwhile....

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-07/indian-ocean-dipole-dominant-cause-drought/10571802



_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Top
#1479257 - Yesterday at 22:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Eigerwand]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7540
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Peer reviewed Research showing that generally ENSO and Blocking are the strongest drivers on Australian rainfall.


[quote0]The amount of rainfall variance explained by individual drivers is highest in eastern Australia and in spring, where it approaches 50% in association with ENSO and blocking.



At the end maps are shown for Australia of which driver is most important (fig 15). If you look closely you can find the pale blue colour for IOD influence amongst a sea of dark blue for ENSO influence.


Generally, but however for the recent weather the EXPERTS have said itís the IOD. There is no more to debate, really.


Gosh I canít wait till the experts, who you have frequently derided for being a bunch of conspiratorial hacks, go against whatever point you are trying to push (rubs hands in anticipation).

Re significance, 25% is plenty significant. Think about it this way. If say the average rainfall in winter for a given area was say 400mm, observing 25% less, 300mm for the period would almost most certainly fall 1 standard deviation away from the mean, with a dataset of 30yrs plus and depending on the location, it may even approach 2sdís. 1 sd either side of the mean accounts for 66% of all scores, meaning you have only a 1 in 3 chance of observing a score beyond that. 2sdís accounts for 95% of all scores, so depending on the level of variance in a locations weather, a 25% drop may be very significant indeed.
Scaling up to say a state or national level when describing rainfall, temp etc, has the advantage of smoothing the variance associated with regional weather, allowing a more general, bigger picture, to emerge. [/quote]

....
Load of crap. 30 years determines history. Flame elsewhere.

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#1479263 - Today at 00:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2830
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Another mindless green drone...

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#1479267 - 41 minutes 29 seconds ago Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8633
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
It's interesting that El Nino (12 mod-strong events) affects FNQ more than any other part of the country during the summer and now the area most affected by the current system.



They seem pretty confident that it'll be hotter and drier for a large chunk of the north, when it may not even be the case. Note they put it 'partly' due to El nino, so why so confident if there's other drivers?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-29/bom-summer-outlook-another-scorching-summer-ahead/10563478

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