Page 86 of 86 < 1 2 ... 84 85 86
Topic Options
#1468854 - Yesterday at 10:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 185

thanks Mike for the comprehensive summary


Edited by snowbooby (Yesterday at 10:20)

Top
#1468905 - Yesterday at 20:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
pete28 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1128
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
More summer ice in the Arctic these days too. Must be upsetting for the climate experts whose climate models were predicting an ice-free Arctic in 2008. At least the Polie Bears will be happier but not the cruise ship operators.

Top
#1468906 - Yesterday at 20:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: pete28]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 277
Originally Posted By: pete28
More summer ice in the Arctic these days too. Must be upsetting for the climate experts whose climate models were predicting an ice-free Arctic in 2008. At least the Polie Bears will be happier but not the cruise ship operators.


https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

And Iím unfamiliar with any models that ever predicted a summer ice free Arctic by 2008.
Jog on.

Top
#1468907 - Yesterday at 20:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1799
Loc: Kingaroy
A negative SAM could mean a quiet cyclone season in the southern hemisphere again.

Top
#1468909 - Yesterday at 20:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 185
Originally Posted By: RC
Yes but reacting to what?

That warm subsurface pool that was meandering along has vanished now, but there is another one on the way but it is months away from surfacing, if it ever does.

There might be cool water away from the equator where it is not measured that is coming in and cooling down these warm pools.



Passage of a strong tropical instability wave is noted in July
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figa1.1.shtml

not familiar with these guys at all- I dont think they're included in initial conditions any enso modelling. There's a bit out there suggesting a net effect on sst's might follow in the mixed layer ( contingent on a number of other factors).

My impression - that the induced meridional flow is equatorward(but may be wrong).

Anyone got a handle on this at all?

Top
#1468911 - Today at 00:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Cutofflow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2009
Posts: 100
Loc: North Central. VIC
Decent +IOD brewing now, anyone with a sst chart can see it. Big upwelling continuing off Java will move up the Sumatran coastline and kill the spring. DMI across the Indian has been positive all year, no moisture coming in from the NW ahead of all these gusty fronts just dry northerlies.

The way the SAM sits the usual areas susceptible to onshore flows have been doing ok this winter season. Rainfall across SW WA, SE SA and SW Vic going well, everywhere else struggling. Need the NW moisture in feed into spring when the fronts began to slip to finish the season off. The SAM index has a link (proxy or not) to AMO which has tumbled back to earth in the short term. Still yet to break long term cycle.

https://stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/sur/ind/dmi.php

Top
#1468915 - 20 minutes 53 seconds ago Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 481
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
For those with interest in East Coast Lows, here is some recent research on long term trends and some information on teleconnections.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jshess/docs/2018/Ji_early_online.pdf
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

Top
#1468916 - 5 minutes 8 seconds ago Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Eigerwand]
pete28 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1128
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Originally Posted By: pete28
More summer ice in the Arctic these days too. Must be upsetting for the climate experts whose climate models were predicting an ice-free Arctic in 2008. At least the Polie Bears will be happier but not the cruise ship operators.


https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

And Iím unfamiliar with any models that ever predicted a summer ice free Arctic by 2008.
Jog on.


You might want to get your facts right, Dr Hansen from NASA said in June 2008 that in 5 to 10 years the "Arctic will be free of ice in the summer"

Also in June 2008 David Barber from the University of Manitoba said "we're actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time in history".

Then in March 2008 Dr Olav Orheim, head of the Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat stated "the ice cap in the Arctic will all melt away, which is highly possible judging from current conditions"

Also in December 2007 Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the the US governments snow and Ice Data Centre said that he was projecting that the "Arctic sea ice was melting so rapidly that the Arctic would be ice free in summer with in 5 years".

Need I go on? Where do you think they were getting these projections from if not for the models they were using?

Top
Page 86 of 86 < 1 2 ... 84 85 86


Who's Online
6 registered (Lee@Hazo, Raindammit, pete28, Simmo FNQ, 2 invisible), 61 Guests and 2 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Prozerpyne23, Sunday
Forum Stats
29631 Members
32 Forums
23943 Topics
1495682 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image