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#1461087 - 06/04/2018 12:07 Vic - arrival of a low pressure system 11-13/4/18
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6884
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
No block buster, maybe some storms to herald the change after an unseasonably warm fire danger day?

At last at least something to wake us Vic's up out of dehydrated slumber....


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#1461109 - 06/04/2018 18:47 Re: Vic - arrival of a low pressure system 11-13/4/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6884
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS:



A separate follow up event next weekend is worthy of its own thread?

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#1461112 - 06/04/2018 21:38 Re: Vic - arrival of a low pressure system 11-13/4/18 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6006
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
I'm yet to be convinced that this low pressure event (and the possible winter storm afterwards) will come off, given that the models have been hopeless in recent months and we've only had one or two truly significant rain/storm events to break up what has been a useless, relentless, merciless high pressure. I'm over it! mad

As much as I'm enjoying being outdoors, I'll enjoy the sunshine a billion times more if only we could get some more heavy rainfall and great storm action to break up the dry spell please. frown

I ain't posting much on these forums unless and until my confidence starts rising. That'll only come when the models, synoptics, satellite imagery, etc start showing promising signs that rainy, stormy weather is finally on the way...

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#1461115 - 06/04/2018 22:55 Re: Vic - arrival of a low pressure system 11-13/4/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Seem just weak cold uppers low by chart midnight April 15th and cant see any good next one far West to South Africa.

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#1461135 - 07/04/2018 10:42 Re: Vic - arrival of a low pressure system 11-13/4/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6884
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Agree ASF and CA.

The "event" for this thread is really only going to turn out to be a moisture enhancer for the following change over next weekend.

GFS's latest:



Edited by Petros (07/04/2018 10:43)

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#1461139 - 07/04/2018 11:42 Re: Vic - arrival of a low pressure system 11-13/4/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
More problems is GFS Chart keep changing..

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#1461163 - 07/04/2018 18:24 Re: Vic - arrival of a low pressure system 11-13/4/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6884
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep, all struggling, but at least all agree some "weather" is finally about to arrive into Vic.

As previously stated, the setup for this thread has become the moisture delivery mechanism (moist air from Qld [at last]), this then allows the weekend low pressure system from the bight arriving next weekend to potentially become enhanced, and start the Autumn break for some areas of Vic.

GFS's latest:


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#1461167 - 07/04/2018 19:16 Re: Vic - arrival of a low pressure system 11-13/4/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Yep Windy Map has updates too...Petros

We will feel few days of mix properly Autumn W/SW winds coming and throw away East winds for a while...

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#1461216 - 08/04/2018 18:22 Re: Vic - arrival of a low pressure system 11-13/4/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6884
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS:



No change to the variance between models for next week OR the variance between each model after each 12Hr recalc - .....the models are as confused as poor old Petros is!!


At least the "what may come" is interesting......

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#1461305 - 09/04/2018 18:01 Re: Vic - arrival of a low pressure system 11-13/4/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6884
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
After all the chopping and changing, GFS has returned to predicting the change as per the start of this thread, ....warm and windy (fire?) Tue/Wed, low pressure to allow advecting moisture from QLD ahead of the colder/more significant weekend cold change?:



Feel free to start a new thread for the more significant weekend change anyone!


Edited by Petros (09/04/2018 18:06)

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#1461306 - 09/04/2018 18:02 Re: Vic - arrival of a low pressure system 11-13/4/18 [Re: Petros]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 552
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Loving this nice weather still lingering but the nice warm weather is in its dieing stages.
Record heat across much of SA (42c today new record), NSW and Vic in coming days before more autumn weather takes hold on the weekend and early next week

Over the coming weeks and the rains will return so to the large slow moving highs and days of cool cloudy depression.

Active 10 days ahead and everyone will get some rain.
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1461393 - 10/04/2018 18:26 Re: Vic - arrival of a low pressure system 11-13/4/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6884
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Very sultry outside atm, had a few spots of rain on and off over past 30 mins and heard a rumble from the foothills of the divide 15 mins ago. 27 C here today, 28 C yest.

Nice (but dark) evening for a BBQ smile


Edited by Petros (10/04/2018 18:28)

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#1461582 - 12/04/2018 18:03 Re: Vic - arrival of a low pressure system 11-13/4/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6884
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A few lightning splats up around Mt Beauty this morning knocked the electrical system around, after a hazy start, a warm 32.5C here today delivered by a mild NW'ly.

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#1461583 - 12/04/2018 18:36 Re: Vic - arrival of a low pressure system 11-13/4/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6884
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
....and for this thread, this is what we ended up with:



Continually impressed by how good the models have evolved over recent years.

Current situation will enhance moisture ahead of the next cold front in Vic as discussed above.

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#1461680 - 13/04/2018 18:47 Re: Vic - arrival of a low pressure system 11-13/4/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6884
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Mild 26.5c here today, mostly calm. Baro has presently fallen to 999 hPa - the lowest value for 3 months.

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