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#1461928 - 17/04/2018 10:44 Records tumbling
Graham M Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2002
Posts: 425
Loc: Boambee East near Coffs Harbou...
Well I certainly have never known an April as hot as this. We're only half way through, of course, but I thought I'd do a quick comparison of the first half of the month (April 1 to 15) this year with the same half-month period from 1995 to 2017.

In each case, the historic, 23-year figure is first, followed by this year's, in square brackets.

Average temperature 19.8 [22.6]
Average daily maximum temperature 24.2 [26.9]
Average overnight minimum temperature 16.3 [18.7]
Highest maximum temperature 30.5 [30.6]
Lowest minimum temperature 7.8 [16.5]
Lowest daily maximum temperature 16.1 [24.8]

Hard to believe we're only six weeks away from winter.

#1461965 - 17/04/2018 18:17 Re: Records tumbling [Re: Graham M]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2162
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
At Manilla, NSW, this April's mean temperatures 1st to 17th are Max 31, Mean 23, Min 14.
At the usual rate of Autumn cooling, I expect the final April means to be 1 degree lower, that is: Max 30, Mean 22, Min 13.
I set up my April normals using the decade April 1999 to March 2008 as: Max 26, Mean 18, Min 11.
The April anomaly values that I expect for this April are:
Max +4, Mean +4, Min +2.
That will make it about one degree warmer than my previous warmest April: 2005.
Last April (2017) was my fourth coolest: more than one degree below normal.

In 20 years, the rise in the April linear trend is trivial.
A fitted quartic trend line is low in 1999 and 2011, and high in 2003 and 2018. The quartic trend line for Max is a couple of years in advance of the quartic trend line for Min.

Weatherzone has a news item, sourced to "ABC", about this April warmth. It includes statements by Blair Trewin.
I expect it will just get lost, like all old news.
Data are cheap; information is expensive!


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