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#1462591 - 26/04/2018 14:18 FV3-GFS
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 441
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Hi all,
I noticed on tropical tidbits that they had the new experimental FV3-GFS model available although for only the US. I was wondering when it will become operational on our side of the planet, also how it will change the game in respect to weather modelling. Because from some research I saw that it can create resolutions of as high as 2km, but it counters it by dropping the resolution in other areas.

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#1463480 - 09/05/2018 21:59 Re: FV3-GFS [Re: ashestoashes]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
A2A, I don't think Fv3-GFS is operational anywhere yet, but happy to be corrected.
Some experimental outputs are available for our region but only viewable at global scale.
http://data1.gfdl.noaa.gov/fvGFS/fvGFS_p...ow_slp_wind_6hr
I occasionally look at this for the total water path output.
Double check what the options are when using this site.

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#1465391 - 11/06/2018 06:55 Re: FV3-GFS [Re: ashestoashes]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
I found this website where it is possible to view FV3-GFS experimental forecasts for Australia.
https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/gfs/fv3gfs.php

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#1465392 - 11/06/2018 08:11 Re: FV3-GFS [Re: ashestoashes]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4739
Loc: Wynnum
Thanks Flowin.
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#1465398 - 11/06/2018 09:10 Re: FV3-GFS [Re: ashestoashes]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 441
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Thanks mate.

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#1465400 - 11/06/2018 10:16 Re: FV3-GFS [Re: ashestoashes]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1863
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
That,s great Flowin. I have book marked it.
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#1469661 - 28/08/2018 18:56 Re: FV3-GFS [Re: ashestoashes]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5391
I only just stumbled across this thread so thought I might throw my two cents worth in.

The FV3 (or more broadly, the name of the dynamical core of a bunch of models, one of which is due to replace the existing version of GFS later next year) is still technically in experimental stage so it's not operational yet.

It's been providing data for the whole globe for awhile now but there's only a few websites I know of that offer forecasts that cover our area and even then, it's usually restricted to a limited range of forecast products.

I've recently written some scripts to display realtime FV3 data for our region - see example below. One of its advantages over GFS is that it greatly reduces the often unrealistically intense rainfall bullseyes in convective setups that's plagued GFS for years.
Also, objective skill score stats for FV3 during its testing shows that it's performed significantly better than the current GFS (on average) in most parameters and regions including hurricane tracks and intensities although still not as good as EC and UK. Of course there'll always be some setups when another less skillful model or models will beat it.



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#1469758 - 30/08/2018 20:15 Re: FV3-GFS [Re: ashestoashes]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Thanks Ken,
That is a useful comparison. Your scripts to process the FV3 model outputs are good and would be helpful as while the FV3 is in the experimental / testing phase it is hard to get visualisation of it at meaningful scale for Australia.
I have been watching the precipitable water outputs of FV3 for a while and find the smaller resolution of FV3 more helpful to understand the likely moisture feed source and direction for some weather systems. I have an interest in this for atmospheric rivers which I have discussed in another thread.

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#1469761 - 30/08/2018 21:05 Re: FV3-GFS [Re: ashestoashes]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
You'd have to hope FV3-GFS does better than GFS in the tropics too because I've lost count how many typhoons it's bombed to ridiculous pressures this year (I'm talking as low as 900 hpa for some) while no other model suggests such a thing. It has been extremely bad in that respect and what's so embarrassing is all of those supposed upgrades to the model haven't seemed to have helped in that area at all.

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#1471909 - 03/10/2018 07:27 Re: FV3-GFS [Re: ashestoashes]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7210
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Found this on Twitter, it shows the general timeline for the upgrade from GEFS (GFS Ensemble) to FV3GEFS through next year and into 2020:



All I can say is it's about bloody time.

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#1471910 - 03/10/2018 07:29 Re: FV3-GFS [Re: ashestoashes]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5391
You can also find the latest updates to that implementation timeline on the official website for the FV3 here: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/Alicia.Bentley/fv3gfs/

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#1471915 - 03/10/2018 08:12 Re: FV3-GFS [Re: ashestoashes]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Thanks for that link Ken. Some good information there.
I noted this presentation: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/Alicia.Bentley/fv3gfs/updates/MEG_9-27-18_FV3GFS_EVAL.pptx
Seems to suggest that FV3GFS may better than current GFS in relation to not overcooking cyclone intensity.
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