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#1469874 - 01/09/2018 04:53 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8543
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Nicely done Steve, looking at things from a 'glass half full' perspective. Pardon the pun laugh

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#1469914 - 01/09/2018 15:34 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2132
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW


August rain prevented six-month totals from approaching the record of 43 mm set in 1888.

https://climatebysurly.com/2018/09/01/drought-sixth-month-august-2018/
_________________________
Data are cheap; information is expensive!

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#1470618 - 11/09/2018 19:09 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2132
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
I have drafted a graph like the one above (August 2018) projected for September using dummy rainfall totals.
Remarkably, the September total (8.8 mm up to the 11th) will have to exceed 17 mm to avoid breaking a record for rainfall deficiency.
The record, which has stood since 1912, is the 15-month total of 404 mm. That is a rate of only 27 mm per month: just half of the average monthly rate.
_________________________
Data are cheap; information is expensive!

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#1470941 - 19/09/2018 11:51 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2132
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
"This lack of moisture in recent months has caused some places in western NSW to experience one of their driest years to date on record.
Broken Hill's running annual total of 24.6mm as of 9am on Wednesday was its lowest to this point in the year since 1927 and the second lowest in more than 120 years of records.
Wanaaring's 45.8mm of rain to date is its lowest total to this point in the year since 1982.
Further east, Parkes was only up to 137.4mm as of 9am on Wednesday, making this its driest year to date since 1902 and the second driest on record."

- weatherzone Weather News Ben Domensino, Wednesday September 19, 2018

These near-record low figures for the year to date (8.6 months) agree with the shape of my August graph for Manilla (above). I have the 5- and 6-month rainfall totals as the most extremely low percentile values on the graph.
Unless there is normal rainfall this month, Manilla's 9-month total will also be extremely low, but not record-breaking. The 15-month total may break a record (thus, below the 0.1th percentile).
_________________________
Data are cheap; information is expensive!

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