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#1469874 - 01/09/2018 04:53 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8597
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Nicely done Steve, looking at things from a 'glass half full' perspective. Pardon the pun laugh

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#1469914 - 01/09/2018 15:34 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2142
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW


August rain prevented six-month totals from approaching the record of 43 mm set in 1888.

https://climatebysurly.com/2018/09/01/drought-sixth-month-august-2018/
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#1470618 - 11/09/2018 19:09 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2142
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
I have drafted a graph like the one above (August 2018) projected for September using dummy rainfall totals.
Remarkably, the September total (8.8 mm up to the 11th) will have to exceed 17 mm to avoid breaking a record for rainfall deficiency.
The record, which has stood since 1912, is the 15-month total of 404 mm. That is a rate of only 27 mm per month: just half of the average monthly rate.
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#1470941 - 19/09/2018 11:51 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2142
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
"This lack of moisture in recent months has caused some places in western NSW to experience one of their driest years to date on record.
Broken Hill's running annual total of 24.6mm as of 9am on Wednesday was its lowest to this point in the year since 1927 and the second lowest in more than 120 years of records.
Wanaaring's 45.8mm of rain to date is its lowest total to this point in the year since 1982.
Further east, Parkes was only up to 137.4mm as of 9am on Wednesday, making this its driest year to date since 1902 and the second driest on record."

- weatherzone Weather News Ben Domensino, Wednesday September 19, 2018

These near-record low figures for the year to date (8.6 months) agree with the shape of my August graph for Manilla (above). I have the 5- and 6-month rainfall totals as the most extremely low percentile values on the graph.
Unless there is normal rainfall this month, Manilla's 9-month total will also be extremely low, but not record-breaking. The 15-month total may break a record (thus, below the 0.1th percentile).
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#1471678 - 30/09/2018 17:05 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2142
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
September figures for Manilla show that rainfall in the last 15 months is not just extremely low, it is the lowest ever recorded.



A serious shortage at a duration of 20 years has also appeared, for the first time since 1949.

https://climatebysurly.com/2018/09/30/record-15-month-drought-in-2018/
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#1471688 - 30/09/2018 18:05 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4444
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sydney did a bit better in September, with most places finishing about average (broadly defined) in what is admittedly the driest month of the year. The following are rainfall figures, with percentages being of median and average.

Sydney OH: 51.0 mm, 98%, 75%
Bankstown : 94.4 mm, 220%, 277%
Parramatta: 31.0 mm, 87%, 60%
Richmond : 18.4 mm, 62%, 42%

Good rains fell across much of Sydney on the 8th, with Bankstown, which had been very dry this year, scoring a bullseye. However, Sydney's North didn't do so well. Parramatta is about 15 km North of Bankstown, about the sane distance inland. It missed out on the good falls of the 8th.

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#1471864 - 02/10/2018 18:21 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2142
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
The Bureau of Meteorology "Drought" maps now include September data, for example:
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...18month&area=ns

On these maps, the greatest rainfall deficiencies in the area of the "North-west Slopes and Plains" match well to my "Rainfall Shortage" graph (above). The Bureau does not present analysis of 15-month deficiencies, which happen to be the most extreme deficiencies at Manilla just now. However, the 18-month deficiencies on the maps are much worse than the 12-month deficiencies, as on my graph.
Deficiencies for other durations also agree with my graph to a large extent.
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#1471904 - 03/10/2018 06:49 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
DerekHV Offline
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Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1203
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
We are not yet into restrictions with Hunter Water, and will require a few more months of low rainfall for that to be the case.
Still, we will see what happens with the upcoming event in the next few days, as long term rain forecasts were not good.


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#1474832 - 28/10/2018 23:21 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2142
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
The progress of this drought


This drought is a failure of the winter (westerly) rainfall mode only. A partial (late) failure in 2017 reinforced the near-total failure of 2018. That accounts for the record low 15-month rainfall at September 2018.

https://climatebysurly.com/2018/10/28/contours-of-manillas-2018-drought/
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#1475588 - 08/11/2018 19:05 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2142
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
A paradox of drought severity and drought duration



October figures show that there is now no serious rainfall shortage at 1, 2, or 3 months duration, but there is an extreme shortage at 24 months duration, such as has not been seen for half a century.

Blog post: "An extreme 24-month drought".

I find the lack of interest here strange. It seems to me that this NSW drought is worse than the "millennial drought" of Victoria that received so much attention.
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#1475589 - 08/11/2018 19:28 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Homer Online   content
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6001
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Surly Bond

I find the lack of interest here strange. It seems to me that this NSW drought is worse than the "millennial drought" of Victoria that received so much attention.


There is plenty of discussion in the day to day thread re the drought, and how tough rural NSW is doing it, and how we all hope that things will improve. The discussion doesn't need to be in two threads.
Your records are interesting and I'm sure followed my many here on this forum, including me.

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#1475591 - 08/11/2018 19:33 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4444
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Surly Bond
I find the lack of interest here strange. It seems to me that this NSW drought is worse than the "millennial drought" of Victoria that received so much attention.

I expect that's because it's started raining again in Sydney and on the coast. Everything looks nice and green around here so City and town dwellers assume it's all OK now. Of course, it's more complex than that, our friends in the Hunter and Wagga don't seem to be doing so well. It hasn't resumed raining everywhere and even where it has, it was a long dry before then.


Edited by Steve777 (08/11/2018 19:33)

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#1475598 - 08/11/2018 20:59 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2142
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Thanks for the encouragement, Homer and Steve777.

I am a beginner in the study of droughts. My material is a list of monthly rainfall totals from just one station. On that I have built a table of cumulative totals and another table of percentile values. That is about it.
This material has led me to various facts that I did not know. Such as: long droughts of a given percentile value of rainfall deficiency have very much higher rainfall rates than short droughts.
I hope that others will add to the discussion with other facts about droughts, and this drought in particular, that everyone would benefit from knowing of.
One farmer said that his bore was still flowing well. That surprised me, given the extreme rainfall shortages at one-year to two-year durations. Can bores hold out until the drought extends to a decade?
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#1475663 - 09/11/2018 21:44 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Homer Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6001
Loc: Dural
Surly.

I suppose history would tell us that droughts rarely last a decade, but in this climate, one would never know.
I doubt that bores could hold out that long considering they require ground water to replenish themselves.
Please continue to add your thoughts. I'm sure many here are interested in your stats.

Re: Steve.
I'm not sure that us city folk assume "everything is ok" just because we have had some good rains lately and everything is green. Maybe, those that are uneducated and don't care, but generally, on this forum, there is a large deal of sympathy for the rain deprived country folk. That includes Tamworth.
I only mostly see positive

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#1476057 - 18/11/2018 10:54 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2142
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
For comparison: the 2002 drought


The only droughts at Manilla in recent years to compare with the 2018 drought are those of 1994 and 2002. This is the contour chart for the 2002 drought. Extreme shortages did not exceed 12 months duration in that drought.

https://climatebysurly.com/
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