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#1475323 - 05/11/2018 11:36 SA - Trough with showers and storms- Nov 5-6 2018
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2216
Loc: Clare, SA
Storms possible over much of the state today and into tomorrow. Looks like most will be north of about Adelaide.

Best storms are likely to be in the NW Pastorals with the trough, the area around Coober Pedy south around Woomera in particular then down towards Port Augusta has high potential for severe storms with supercells possible. These may produce very high lightning rates and contain large hail, torrential rain and there's even potential for destructive winds.

As for further south, models vary on how much storm activity will be seen, GFS is probably the least keen but still has storms coming through further south into the night. Access more keen for the mid north with storms, and EC is rather keen with heavy showers/storms forming on E.P. and moving through the mid north/riverland in the late arvo/evening. As for severity of any storms in this region it's hard to say, there's strong shear, great moisture and okay CAPE so it could go either way but the chances of severe storms are probably low. Worth keeping an eye on anyway. The trough positioning varies between models so have to wait and see. Storms may continue through until tomorrow morning before contracting NE into the pastorals during the day. We have a jet entrance overhead this arvo/evening to help intensify cells, dynamics are rather good. I'm really looking forward to seeing what today produces.


There's good surface moisture with these storms and local heavy falls are possible. Hard to say how much could fall but I don't see why some storms couldn't drop a quick 25-40mm.



From the BoM state forecast.

"Thunderstorms possible in all districts, but more likely over the Pastoral and Flinders districts and the northern agricultural area where they may become severe in the afternoon and evening with gusty winds, hail and heavy rainfall.

Cumulative rainfall totals until midnight Thursday are expected to be 5 to 15 mm generally, increasing to 10 to 20 mm over the Pastoral and Flinders districts and the northern agricultural area where isolated falls of 20 to 50 mm are also possible. "

It's worth noting that cold air is coming in behind this system with cold air showers and maybe hail Wednesday, and then potential frost inland Thursday morning.
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#1475325 - 05/11/2018 15:07 Re: SA - Trough with showers and storms- Nov 5-6 2018 [Re: Markus]
epthunda Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 387
Loc: Lock South Australia
Thanks Markus looks very good for the North West. Hopefully some storms can make there way to Adelaide.

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#1475345 - 05/11/2018 20:22 Re: SA - Trough with showers and storms- Nov 5-6 2018 [Re: Markus]
Larzus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/09/2012
Posts: 58
Loc: Whyalla, South Australia
A most spectacular storm just passed over Whyalla. A brilliant light show, tons of rain 🙂.

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#1475347 - 05/11/2018 20:55 Re: SA - Trough with showers and storms- Nov 5-6 2018 [Re: Larzus]
Bolt Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2005
Posts: 378
Loc: Whyalla South Australia
Originally Posted By: Larzus
A most spectacular storm just passed over Whyalla. A brilliant light show, tons of rain 🙂.

Yep we had 10mm in less minutes. Exhilirating.

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#1475348 - 05/11/2018 20:57 Re: SA - Trough with showers and storms- Nov 5-6 2018 [Re: Markus]
Bolt Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2005
Posts: 378
Loc: Whyalla South Australia
All gone still. The crickets are on full song. The smell of storms this is why its good to be alive.

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#1475351 - 05/11/2018 21:37 Re: SA - Trough with showers and storms- Nov 5-6 2018 [Re: Markus]
Helen Offline
Moderator

Registered: 07/11/2001
Posts: 9659
Loc: Mid North, SA
Some nice flash bangs here and some nice moderate to heavy rain to go with it. smile
_________________________
2017 YTD - 67.8mm Yearly Average - 403mm
Jan - 32.8mm (10mm) / Feb - 35.0mm (10mm) / Mar - - (15mm) / Apr - - (31mm)
May - - (46mm) / June - - (51mm) / July - - (59mm) / Aug - - (54mm)
Sept - - (48mm) / Oct - - (38mm) / Nov - - (23mm) / Dec - - (18mm)
Total 2016 - 637.2mm



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#1475352 - 05/11/2018 22:33 Re: SA - Trough with showers and storms- Nov 5-6 2018 [Re: Markus]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 729
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Port Pirie Airport 23mm
Snowtown 7.6mm
Whyalla 11.2mm
Coober Pedy 11.8mm

And the Stand out!

Tarcoola 45.4mm

Looking at Tarcoola's observations they have had a few intense down-pours:

18:01 6.4mm
18:03 11mm

20:40 12.8mm
21:30 38mm
22:00 46mm


Edited by betsuin (05/11/2018 22:39)

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#1475360 - 06/11/2018 07:43 Re: SA - Trough with showers and storms- Nov 5-6 2018 [Re: Markus]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 729
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
9mm in the gauge this morning.

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#1475366 - 06/11/2018 08:24 Re: SA - Trough with showers and storms- Nov 5-6 2018 [Re: Markus]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1660
Loc: Bridgewater
what a treat!
12mm of rain too!

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#1475376 - 06/11/2018 09:43 Re: SA - Trough with showers and storms- Nov 5-6 2018 [Re: Markus]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 576
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
8mm here

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#1475383 - 06/11/2018 11:09 Re: SA - Trough with showers and storms- Nov 5-6 2018 [Re: Markus]
Werner K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 523
Loc: Flinders Park, SA
A rather dismal 0.5mm at home.

Woke up during the night & heard a few spots on the roof plus 3 distant rumbles of thunder.

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#1475399 - 06/11/2018 14:48 Re: SA - Trough with showers and storms- Nov 5-6 2018 [Re: Markus]
parklife Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2013
Posts: 100
Loc: Hazelwood Park
3 very close bolts within 1 km approx 2:30am. We could hear the fizzing prior to the thunder. Large drop downpour for 10 minutes or so resulted in 12mm for the Nylex.

I noticed via the BOM rainfall and river page that Payneham had 41mm to 9am 6/11 which is a fair soaking and you can see the direction of the heavy shower through the metro area. The Burnside station is not working as a couple of people around the area record the same as I have yet there is no recording.

In the mid north Port Pirie had 40mm with Crystal Brook 36mm but the Daily rainfall bulletin records Port Pirie as blank. Good to see Mt Mary et al receiving some rain although they need much more at the right time.

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#1475418 - 06/11/2018 19:04 Re: SA - Trough with showers and storms- Nov 5-6 2018 [Re: Markus]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2216
Loc: Clare, SA
Well what a day!

Some absolutely beasts in the pastorals with some containing extreme lightning rates and there were some supercells also. Committing to a target that far north was not my idea of fun though.

I sat around Crystal Brooke then headed inland at night. Very garden variety at first but one cell got organised and dropped some heavy rain from Pirie through to Gladstone with pretty good lightning. A couple of cells tailed it and produced some very close bolts.
Saw an object get obliterated approax half a kilometer from my position, saw closer bolts than I did from that event last week.

The second area that came through was quite spectacular with very frequent flickers through the clouds being the theme with the odd brilliant CG's thrown in. A left mover just to my east went nuts with cc lightning and the odd spark out the back. Very impressive and if it wasn't for the insanity last week this would have been the best I'd seen in years.

Got a few more cells around the Caltowie/Jamestown area, then headed south with the outflow..a freshie went up over Spalding and produced the best forked CG's of the night, unfortunately I was in a really bad spot and it was raining and couldn't photograph them but a very good showing and more close bolts. Was quite a lot of water flowing down Spaldings main street that's for sure, a little more and there might have been some flooding.

Then got that left mover as it went over Clare from Snowtown with what appeared to be a large wall cloud on, followed by another weak cell and ground scraping roll cloud. All in all I did better than I expected.

13.5mm or so at home in total, Spring gully copped that left mover with 17mm overnight, can see the stormwater remnants on the roads today, very heavy.
_________________________
My Blogging site.

http://markdawsonphoto.wordpress.com/

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#1475436 - 06/11/2018 22:46 Re: SA - Trough with showers and storms- Nov 5-6 2018 [Re: Markus]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 729
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Well I have read a few weather forecasts but this one is a bit of a ripper... Wed 7 Nov 2018:

Partly cloudy. High chance of showers developing early morning, becoming less likely mid afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm in the late morning and afternoon. Possible small hail in the morning and afternoon. Winds SW 25 to 35 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between 6 and 9 with daytime temperatures reaching around 15.


And I gotta ride my push bike to work - fun times ;-)

@Markus - sounds outrageous! Always impressed you manage to get in amoungst the action!


Edited by betsuin (06/11/2018 22:49)

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#1475441 - 06/11/2018 23:54 Re: SA - Trough with showers and storms- Nov 5-6 2018 [Re: parklife]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1690
Loc: Uleybury
Originally Posted By: parklife


I noticed via the BOM rainfall and river page that Payneham had 41mm to 9am 6/11 which is a fair soaking and you can see the direction of the heavy shower through the metro area.


That 41mm at Payneham is an error on the gauge as it was there before the metro area had showers present

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