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#1485364 - 14/01/2019 09:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 17
Most eps ens members are north with this modeled system,however the cyclone guidance does include a few members that turn a solid system poleward south with landfalls.

http://imgur.com/7Hvwo5T


Edited by vorts (14/01/2019 09:10)

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#1485413 - 14/01/2019 19:25 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2766
Loc: Tweed Heads
What goes west ultimately has to recurve back east/SE.

Here is a track map from CMC ensembles.
While he is out there he is busy wrapping up some lovely moisture for someone in Australia . Even if it is the shredded mess of an ex TC
This track map suggesting a TC even at latitude 25s . Interesting..


source
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

----
btw vorts . are u from the USA?
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1485415 - 14/01/2019 19:42 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2766
Loc: Tweed Heads
Hmmmm
Just checked ACCESS G . ACCESS Not having a bar of the CMC forecast posted above
ACCESS G says strong high pressure keeps the tropical low well ot to the NW. In fact has gone off TC status currently and keeps the low under INVEST igation as a trough with two embedded lows throughout this week
Next week is another story , this invest possibly still in play
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1485430 - 14/01/2019 22:04 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 17
There's two systems maybe the current 90S that tracks west,then another that drops drops south as strong system latter shown on eps and now on the GFS00z as land fall threat. GOC gets a sniff of a tc aswell. [img]https://i.imgur.com/HHPXEq2.gif?1[/img]

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#1485507 - 15/01/2019 15:10 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3663
Loc: Broome



Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 14 January 2019
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 17 January 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

There are no tropical lows in the Western Region at present.

A tropical low (11U) may develop within a deepening trough north of the Kimberley later today or tomorrow. The tropical low is forecast to track west over the Timor Sea and the Browse Basin today and tomorrow. By Wednesday there is a slight risk of the system reaching tropical cyclone intensity, though by this time the system is expected to be over the Indian Ocean, well to the northwest of the Kimberley with minimal risk of affecting the West Australian mainland. In the longer term, the system will continue to track to the west throughout the week, well to the north of WA over the the Indian Ocean where there is a chance it may develop into a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:
Very Low
Wednesday:
Low
Thursday:
Moderate
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1485609 - 16/01/2019 11:40 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 73
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Windy has an interesting scenario on the 25 Jan with 2 systems firing up.One just north of Maningrida and one off the north west Kimberley.A long way out but has the potential to impact WA,NT and Qld.

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#1486022 - 16 minutes 5 seconds ago Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 216
Loc: Karratha, WA
So the EC model has a TL crossing between Hedland and Onslow next weekend. It just wouldn’t be Australia Day in Karratha without a cyclone threatening in the lead up

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/medium-mslp-wind850?facets=Range,Medium%20(15%20days)&time=2019011812,216,2019012712&projection=classical_australasia


Edited by Weathergrrl (12 minutes 19 seconds ago)

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