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#1497160 - 05/04/2019 15:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: vorts]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Originally Posted By: vorts
Waiting to see what the GFS 00z brings to the table 18z was over VIC as extra tropical low in 9 days.



After the GFS ops has got a grasp on a cyclone 72+ the error margin drops considerably


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#1497162 - 05/04/2019 15:55 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229

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#1497175 - 05/04/2019 23:51 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3826
Loc: Broome


Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 45 kilometres of 11.9 degrees South 126.3 degrees East, estimated to be 270 kilometres north of Kalumburu and 445 kilometres north northeast of Kuri Bay.

Movement: west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.


The low is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone overnight or Saturday morning north off the Kimberley coast. The system will track towards the west southwest and is likely to intensify further over the weekend. While the most likely track keeps the system well off the WA coast, there remains a slight risk that the cyclone could approach the west Pilbara coast next week.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in exposed coastal parts between Kalumburu and Cockatoo Island overnight or during Saturday if the system tracks further south than expected. GALES may extend to exposed coastal parts from Cockatoo Island to northern parts of the Dampier Peninsula from Saturday evening.
Tides may be higher than expected between Kalumburu and Cockatoo Island on Saturday.
Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts (effective as of 1800 05 APR 2019):

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Kalumburu to Beagle Bay, not including Derby, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1497176 - 05/04/2019 23:51 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7918
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Bloody ridging for days came back. Bugger it. Probably won't even get a storm out if it now. How disappointing.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1497195 - 06/04/2019 12:34 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3826
Loc: Broome


IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1854 UTC 05/04/2019
Name: Tropical Cyclone Wallace

REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Wallace has shown good development in the last 6 hours and has
reached tropical cyclone intensity. The position of the system is based on
animated IR imagery and extrapolation from a GMI microwave pass at 15:41UTC.
There is moderate confidence in the position, with deep convection now occuring
in all quadrants, obscuring the LLCC. An surface observation around 65nm
northeast of the system showed winds to 34 knots in the last 2 hours.

Subjective Dvorak analysis yields DT of 3.0 based on a shear pattern with centre
>1/3 of a degree inside the strong temperature gradient. Raw ADT values from
NESDIS are around 3.0, with CI adjusted down to 2.7 due to constraints. MET is
3.0 with a D trend in the last 24 hours. FT is set at 3.0, with final intensity
estimate 40 kntos [10-min].

The environmental conditions are marginally favourable for development in the
short term, with vertical shear in the range of 20-30 knots from the
east-northeast due to the strong mid-level ridge to the south. SSTs are >30C in
the area. Upper level wind analysis from CIMSS shows good poleward outflow. The
mid-level ridge will steer TC Wallace to the west-southwest over the coming
days, with a moderate to strong shear environment likely to persist on account
of the strong upper level northeasterly winds.

Recent NWP model runs support a track well offshore from the Pilbara coast, with
only a slight risk of coastal impacts around NW Cape towards the middle of next
week. A gradual intensification to category 3 by late Sunday or early Monday is
expected as the system moves closer to the ridge axis, with shear dropping to
the moderate range. In the longer term, the cyclone is expected to weaken
offshore to the west of the continent as it moves over cooler SSTs and is
affected by increasing wind shear associated with a mid-latitude trough.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1497227 - 07/04/2019 08:31 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Could get some weather from the trailing low. A fujiwara can radically change the direction of a tropical lows movement.



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#1497232 - 07/04/2019 10:08 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
https://meteologix.com/au/forecast/2075720-broome/ensemble/euro/precipitation


https://imgur.com/6QYWT2L
850 theta e


Could be garden variety showers or a good soaking if the 2nd lpa
area dances further east.

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#1497236 - 07/04/2019 13:57 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 120.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DIMINISHED DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO
THE WEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON
THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP, AND ON A 052232Z SSMIS
37GHZ IMAGE SHOWING A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE
OF A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND KNES, THOUGH THE APRF ESTIMATE INCREASED TO T3.5 (55
KTS) AND A 052233Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 50 KTS. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA THROUGH TAU
36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PHASE
OF THE FORECAST WITH A 100NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. TC 23S
SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS VWS
GRADUALLY DECREASES, SUPPORTED BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS). THE LATE-TERM
STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX, WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR TO THE EAST
AND BRINGING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER THE SYSTEM, WHILE ANOTHER
STR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST; HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE WEAKENED, AND MAY BE SUBJECT TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW FROM A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST,
AND LATER, RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL BRING INCREASED VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 48 WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, ABOUT
310 NM AT TAU 120 EXCLUDING NAVGEM, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY RECURVES THE
SYSTEM INTO THE STR. GALWEM, THE UKMET MODEL, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE
TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE BREAK BETWEEN
THE STRS WHILE ECMWF, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, AND GFS INDICATE A STEADY
WESTWARD TRACK, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS TRENDED NORTH TOWARDS
A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE BREAK IN THE
STRS TO DEVELOP BY TAU 72 EXCEPT FOR ECMWF, WHICH DOES NOT PREDICT
THE BREAK UNTIL AFTER TAU 96. THE GFS SOLUTION, HOWEVER, DOES NOT
TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE BREAK, FAVORING THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OR SOUTHERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW FROM THE
STR TO THE WEST AS DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCES INSTEAD.
ADDITIONALLY, THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS STAY NORTH OF THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND MAINTAIN A FASTER TRACK SPEED. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, POSITIONED BETWEEN THE TWO SCENARIOS, AND SLOWS AT
LATER TAUS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES MOVING
OVERHEAD. IT IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
WHICH IS BEING DRAGGED SOUTHWARD BY THE OUTLIER NAVGEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.//
NNNN





https://imgur.com/mpT2zPr

A poorly organised tc would describe it in a nutshell.

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#1497309 - 09/04/2019 13:32 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Humm can 98S INVEST stay alive and do enough to get a minimal
cyclone classification @ the tail end of the season.


EC atm thinks maybe.
https://imgur.com/GgIud49


If so a tc minimal tc would be Ann if named..

Ann could be quite worked up and moist.
https://imgur.com/BtPk8OK

https://imgur.com/wPkSd3J

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#1497320 - 09/04/2019 16:35 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3826
Loc: Broome


Ok Wallace going through the death throes.

Dry air is encircling the system from the west around to the north. Northerly shear is expected to entrain
dry air into the system over the next 24 hours leading to steady weakening modulated by diurnal influences.

Wallace is forecast to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity Wednesday afternoon or evening, with gales potentially persisting in southern quadrants
into Thursday morning.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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