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#1495272 - 19/03/2019 08:38 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: desieboy]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 253
Loc: Karratha, WA
Originally Posted By: desieboy

Veronica not even born yet but shes already got a huge appetite for convection.



She almost sounded like a Guns N Roses album ... hahaha

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#1495318 - 19/03/2019 13:44 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3749
Loc: Broome

Yer Weathergrll she's a hungry girl that's for sure . wink even though she still in the embryonic stage.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1495343 - 19/03/2019 15:58 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 127
00z GFS thinks a very intense TC. A very cold tropopause temperature is the likely reason for such intensification
with these current modelled storms here and the GOC.


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#1495358 - 19/03/2019 17:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3749
Loc: Broome
All systems go for this one .Not a certain coastal crossing though .Timing and strenght of ridge and how the trough develops in a few days being the X factors.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm†WST on Tuesday 19 March 2019
for the period until midnight WST†Friday 22 March 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low (19U) is situated to the northwest of the Kimberley. It was located near 14.2S 120.8E at 11am WST Tuesday, about 450km north northwest of Broome. The system is forecast to track generally west southwest over the next couple of days, and is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone by Thursday. At this time it is likely to be well north of the Pilbara coast. There is some uncertainty in the system's movement and there is a chance it moves towards the Pilbara coast later in the week, possibly impacting the Pilbara coast over the weekend.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:
Moderate
Thursday:
High
Friday:
High
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1495392 - 19/03/2019 23:18 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3749
Loc: Broome

From JTWC Tropical Weather discussion UTC 1000

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7S 121.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 121.0E, APPROXIMATELY
231 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190105Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 181359Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
(10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) IN THE
SURROUNDING WATERS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
AND GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH OVER THE
NEXT 18-30 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1495393 - 19/03/2019 23:27 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3749
Loc: Broome

Fairly strong shear winds around but in a sweet spot atm .

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1495396 - 20/03/2019 00:12 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3749
Loc: Broome

Game on ...as of tomorrow night.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1495397 - 20/03/2019 00:23 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 253
Loc: Karratha, WA
Canít wait to see what Veronica (to be) has in stall for us. She seems like is punching above her weight already in those not ideal shear conditions around her

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#1495558 - 20/03/2019 23:51 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 127
looks good is in RI phase.


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