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#1485886 - Yesterday at 13:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3579
Loc: Buderim
Further post on modoki status in climate driver thread.

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#1485933 - Yesterday at 19:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2766
Loc: Tweed Heads
Fantastic research SEABREEZE!! You have put a lot of time into that. I find the results very interesting.

GRAFTON
For example . It has been from 1952 to 2018= 66 yrs
since this has happened.
I quasi ~60~66yr

https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=66+yr+climate+cycle&qpvt=66+yr+climate+cycle&FORM=IGRE

Solar 11yr cycle Hale cycle 22yr
3 Hales and 6 schwabes

This is of interest to my research on the schwabe triplets

When l have time l will delve a little deeper.
------------

I have taken the liberty of placing your research on my blog.
I have a particular interest in weathercycles
https://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2019...1/#comment-7305
---
You could be right in hinting of a change in natural climate regime.
I am a bit out of touch atm due to being AWOL

I also have some of Surlybonds ,( manilla . NSW)research posted on my blog as well.


Edited by crikey (Yesterday at 19:54)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1485935 - Yesterday at 19:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5731
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Further post on modoki status in climate driver thread.


I'm sure there's some good posters on that thread but after hearing all the comments people have made about what goes on in there, I think I'm happy staying here smile

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#1485936 - Yesterday at 19:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1345
Loc: toowoomba
Can we leave these posts about the climate in the appropriate thread and get back to what this thread is about.As for latest GFS,its looking good around the beginning of Feb,long way out I know but at this time it's something to get exited about.

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#1485937 - Yesterday at 19:56 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: petethemoskeet]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5731
Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Can we leave these posts about the climate in the appropriate thread and get back to what this thread is about.As for latest GFS,its looking good around the beginning of Feb,long way out I know but at this time it's something to get exited about.

The posts related to influences that affect the day to day weather in our region so I think they were entirely relevant. Broader scale influences on seasonal timescales and short term local influences aren't mutually exclusive in terms of their effects on our day to day weather here and there's always some overlap. By definition, climate is the longer term average of day to day weather after all.
Even Seabreeze himself has said here in the past that such discussion isn't a problem here.

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#1485938 - Yesterday at 19:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1201
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Feb - pls bring the rain like you do. Be well grim if itís a lean feb.

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#1485939 - Yesterday at 20:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2766
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS has gone off a precipitation signal for Saturday evening. I suspect the southerly change won't make it up here.
However ACCESS showing a precipitation signal west of the divide
every afternoon this week during diurnal max. 5pm time slot
especially in NSW for most of the week.

Finally a strong surface trough with NW tropical infeed forecast..
commencing its passage from WA to SA , VIC , NSW on the 24th Jan
t+150hrs

Will be worth the watch just to see if it busts our ridging ?

Also at the same time ACCESS has 2 tropical lows. One on NW WA coast and one tropical low in the coral

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml


Edited by crikey (Yesterday at 20:17)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1485943 - Yesterday at 20:28 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7502
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Tonight's EC - some other variables thrown into the mix but none really line up to change the current pattern much if at all:

- Weak upper low offshore (between New Cal and QLD coast)
- TC in gulf associated with monsoon burst
- Weak surface trough trying its best to dig into SEQ from NSW but I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't reach us at all.

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#1485951 - Yesterday at 21:06 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3374
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Think the reason being we can see how the discussion goes when we talk climate.

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#1485959 - Yesterday at 21:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 918
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Are us weather enthusiasts, farmers and others who live off the land, most affected by this blistering relentless boring dry pattern.I talk to people I live amongst here in semi burbia and am out and about in a wide variety of settings and people don't on the whole make any comments about how seriously dry things are or how unusual the weather is with continuous hot dry days with not a raincloud in sight.
I find it intriguing.I guess they are so entrenched in their lives.Maybe it's just my observations.

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#1485961 - Yesterday at 21:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1201
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Iím wondering how the croppers out in the Lockyer are going. Havenít seen anything about it, so it must be ok, but surely things would be getting sketchy by now? Re lack of raIn......Anyone out that way know more?

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#1485964 - Yesterday at 22:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3374
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Its dry its been a couple of months between rain don't think its too out of the norm, been through it many times.

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#1485967 - Yesterday at 22:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Steve O]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 918
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Its dry its been a couple of months between rain don't think its too out of the norm, been through it many times.


Maybe it is in this part of the world. Having lived most of my life in Sydney up until 12 years ago, I am probably not prepared for these sort of conditions when they do occur.It certainly is a unique part of the world given we live in the subtropics and it can quite be as dry as the desert during summer

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#1485970 - Yesterday at 22:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Ken Kato]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10532
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Can we leave these posts about the climate in the appropriate thread and get back to what this thread is about.As for latest GFS,its looking good around the beginning of Feb,long way out I know but at this time it's something to get exited about.

The posts related to influences that affect the day to day weather in our region so I think they were entirely relevant. Broader scale influences on seasonal timescales and short term local influences aren't mutually exclusive in terms of their effects on our day to day weather here and there's always some overlap. By definition, climate is the longer term average of day to day weather after all.
Even Seabreeze himself has said here in the past that such discussion isn't a problem here.
Yep, Climate Driver discussion (ENSO, IOD, SAM, AAO etc) isn't a problem in here as it's inter-related with the daily, monthly and seasonal weather we receive. Unlike the Climate Driver thread in General Weather, most of the time when it gets discussed here in the "day-to-day" thread, there is more of a specific focus on effects the climate driver/drivers are having or could potentially have on the SEQLD/NENSW region.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
January 2019 Rainfall: 0.4mm (January Avg. 145.8mm) // January 2019 Raindays: 1 (January Avg. 13.5 raindays)
2018 Yearly Rainfall: 1532.4mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm)

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#1485982 - Yesterday at 23:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: crikey]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10532
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: crikey
Fantastic research SEABREEZE!! You have put a lot of time into that. I find the results very interesting.

GRAFTON
For example . It has been from 1952 to 2018= 66 yrs
since this has happened.
I quasi ~60~66yr

https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=66+yr+climate+cycle&qpvt=66+yr+climate+cycle&FORM=IGRE

Solar 11yr cycle Hale cycle 22yr
3 Hales and 6 schwabes

This is of interest to my research on the schwabe triplets

When l have time l will delve a little deeper.
------------

I have taken the liberty of placing your research on my blog.
I have a particular interest in weathercycles
https://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2019...1/#comment-7305
---
You could be right in hinting of a change in natural climate regime.
I am a bit out of touch atm due to being AWOL

I also have some of Surlybonds ,( manilla . NSW)research posted on my blog as well.
Thanks Crikey, yeah it did take quite a bit of time as you have to look one year at time at each one of the sites. Thankfully, twenty-something plus dry spells are reasonably noticeable on the daily rainfall charts for each year.

It doesn't have records for as long as the other five sites I mentioned, but for South West Rocks these are the dry spells during / partly during summer of 22 days or more (since 1939):
Dec 24th 1993 to Jan 14th 1994 - 22 days
Jan 17th 1952 to Feb 11th 1952 - 26 days
Feb 20th 1943 to Mar 17th 1943 - 26 days



This could be of interest too, I saw that Canberra in late January 1952 experienced a heatwave of significance
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...r_H#Post1485913
During the same period of time, the Jan-Feb of 1952 saw 5 of those 6 towns I've looked at here on the north coast experience an extended dry spell without any recordable rain (Casino was the odd one out).

Fast forward to 2019, Canberra's experiencing a significant heatwave and 5 of those 6 towns I've looked at on the north coast are currently experiencing (late Dec 2018 - Jan 2019) an extended dry spell without any recordable rain (South West Rocks being the odd one out this time).
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
January 2019 Rainfall: 0.4mm (January Avg. 145.8mm) // January 2019 Raindays: 1 (January Avg. 13.5 raindays)
2018 Yearly Rainfall: 1532.4mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm)

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#1485996 - Today at 07:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3093
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
I've looked to see how the current dry spell compares to previous ones during the summer-time along the NSW north coast.
It looks like extended dry spells during the summer were more common before the mid 1950s and have been pretty much absent since then until 2018. If this is a cyclical pattern, I would be expecting extended dry spells during the summer-time to occur from time-to-time over the decades ahead.
The length of the dry spell is a record for summer-time at Coffs, though not yet for the other towns.
The threshold for an extended dry spell for the towns listed below being more than three weeks (22 days or more) without any recordable rain.

Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Coffs Harbour during or partly during summer (since 1900):
23 Dec 2018 to present - 26 days and counting
22 Dec 1993 to 14 Jan 1994 - 24 days
20 Jan 1952 to 11 Feb 1952 - 23 days
23 Feb 1943 to 17 Mar 1943 - 23 days
30 Jan 1939 to 20 Feb 1939 - 22 days
14 Nov 1913 to 5 Dec 1913 - 22 days
13 Dec 1902 to 4 Jan 1903 - 23 days



Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Grafton during or partly during summer (since 1871):
23 Dec 2018 to present - 26 days and counting
19 Jan 1952 to 11 Feb 1952 - 24 days
22 Feb 1943 to 17 Mar 1942 - 24 days
28 Jan 1926 to 23 Feb 1926 - 27 days
15 Jan 1915 to 6 Feb 1915 - 23 days
23 Dec 1904 to 15 Jan 1905 - 24 days
19 Dec 1902 to 11 Jan 1903 - 24 days
3 Dec 1893 to 1 Jan 1894 - 30 days
25 Feb 1883 to 24 Mar 1883 - 28 days
18 Nov 1881 to 18 Dec 1881 - 31 days
26 Nov 1876 to 17 Dec 1876 - 22 days
19 Nov 1875 to 14 Dec 1875 - 26 days



Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Yamba during or partly during summer (since 1877):
26 Dec 2018 to present - 23 days and counting
4 Jan 2018 to 27 Jan 2018 - 24 days
21 Dec 1954 to 11 Jan 1955 - 22 days
20 Jan 1952 to 11 Feb 1952 - 23 days
20 Dec 1932 to 11 Jan 1933 - 23 days
4 Feb 1926 to 26 Feb 1926 - 23 days
12 Jan 1912 to 8 Feb 1912 - 28 days
17 Jan 1900 to 8 Feb 1900 - 23 days
20 Jan 1892 to 15 Feb 1892 - 27 days
30 Jan 1886 to 24 Feb 1886 - 26 days
12 Nov 1883 to 5 Dec 1883 - 24 days
30 Dec 1879 to 23 Jan 1880 - 25 days



Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Casino during or partly during summer (since 1879):
24 Dec 2018 to present - 25 days and counting
4 Jan 2018 to 28 Jan 2018 - 25 days
19 Jan 1945 to 11 Feb 1945 - 24 days
1 Feb 1926 to 26 Feb 1926 - 26 days
15 Nov 1906 to 12 Dec 1906 - 28 days
22 Dec 1904 to 12 Jan 1905 - 22 days
19 Dec 1902 to 9 Jan 1903 - 22 days



Dry Spells of 22 days or more at Lismore during or partly during summer (since 1884):
25 Dec 2018 to present - 24 days and counting
18 Jan 1952 to 12 Feb 1952 - 26 days
11 Dec 1920 to 3 Jan 1921 - 24 days
19 Jan 1915 to 9 Feb 1915 - 22 days
3 Nov 1913 to 5 Dec 1913 - 33 days
5 Dec 1893 to 1 Jan 1894 - 28 days


That is fascinating, thanks & well done.

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#1485998 - Today at 08:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3374
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
The thing that sort of gives me hope is the trade winds associated with the ridge we have been experiencing and with that synoptic setup and monsoon forecast might see something develop in or around CYP or GOC,might give me hope if the tropics are firing I might not get a storm or rain at my house but atleast its getting shared around.
The ridging in our parts seems to be bending in a more favourable direction bringing us a more onshore component with that big trough thats been diggin down S.A NSW may even extend into QLD at some point which leads me to my next point, if we were experiencing a N to NW surface winds you would feel it alot more dry less humidity and temp inversion become more evident with that haze filled sky that is the dry. I definitely don't want to see places in drought so I guess I'm just hoping there will be some rain eventually..theres always going to be drought and floods and extreme temps pretty sure that's why when the first explorer's who came to Aus were like nope not enough weather here.

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#1486009 - Today at 09:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4916
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..19 JAN 2019 TIME..0800

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......25.8C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........65%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 19C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... 9kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1018.3Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........Trace

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......32.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....20.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...18.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....19C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1016.2Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 33kph at 1327
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Slight shower Fri. morning. No rain recorded.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2019-Jan8.8.(158)YTD8.8(158)

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#1486012 - Today at 09:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Stormwalker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2013
Posts: 87
Anyone else experiencing issues with the forum today? Seems to take a long time to load.

As a precaution - I created a seqweather subreddit (/r/seqweather). I thought it may be useful just in case the forum ever goes down and we arenít able to contact each other.

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