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#1490777 - 18/02/2019 00:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Delta-T]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2106
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Hmm, better clarify that...
In a parallel universe that happened.


Wouldn't bother clarifying M8, half the population live there anyway.

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#1490789 - 18/02/2019 08:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2491
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
That WWB does not seem to be as strong as what was predicted.

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#1490797 - 18/02/2019 10:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3647
Loc: Buderim
Probably about as strong as the moderate WWB EC predicted, but weaker than extreme WWB GFS predicted.

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#1490802 - 18/02/2019 11:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18894
Loc: The Beach.
It's going to have to rain damned hard across the Northern Territory over the next 10 days to meet Modoki those requirements we were told to watch for.



_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1490803 - 18/02/2019 12:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7677
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I have to agree with others about the last WWB not really living up to its full potential. Even Mick Ventrice mentioned the same thing on his Twitter a while ago.

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#1491074 - Yesterday at 17:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3647
Loc: Buderim
Typicaly Modoki impact in February is an intensified monsoon with heavier rains in NT and western Qld. Impact of this Modoki event for February has been an intensified monsoon with heavier rains in Western Qld and eastern Qld, with below average rainfall in Northern Territory.

The prime mechanism of Modoki impact on Australian rainfall is intensified westerly winds over the north of Australia which enhance the monsoon. Impacts are strongest in NT and western Qld due to convergence with SEs from the subtropical ridge over SW Pacific.

Typical circulation during a Modoki event:



From January through to mid February we have seen enhanced westerlies over north Australia just as expected with Modoki.



The arrow marks the characteristic circulation anomaly, which is also the same circulation anomaly driven by the Ningaloo Nina, which has also been clearly evident.

Marked by the oval is a weak area of southerly wind, and towards the north of this region is a region where the westerly flow is substantially weakened. This seems to correspond to the area in NT which failed to receive rain from the enhanced monsoon.

Perhaps this area was caused by the strong low pressure over North Qld which pushed southerlies on the western flank. Or perhaps this area pushed drier air into the NT region, delaying the development of heavy convection in the westerly flow until further east and is the reason why the low pressure/convection etc was strongest over Qld.

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#1491086 - Yesterday at 17:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3647
Loc: Buderim
Generally the WWB is not as strong as GFS suggested it might be, however the current chart does have some impressively strong westerlies near 160E.



I am puzzled as to why the current WWB is not able to drive more of the subsurface warm anomalies from the SH to the equator.

While not exceptionally strong the current WWB looks to be quite long lived, running onto the end of the January event, and with no end in sight in current short range forecasts.



It seems that despite the signficant westerly activity the western warm pool is doing little more than holding its own. Presumably some mechanism of el nino decay typical during the early part of the year is still in play.

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