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#5618 - 11/04/2007 17:28 Re: The Solar-Climate connection
Madmel Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2006
Posts: 2124
Loc: Tarneit (Werribee), Victoria
Something that my Dad mentioned and no one has really mentioned it. Indigo Jones did a lot of starting working on Solar Cycles vs Climate weather and most of he predictions of very long future forcasting was pretty accurate.

His work did start at the turn of the 20th century and alot was laughed off because of BOM sceptics, but a lot of he work is still carried out today.

I still need to get the link form Dad, but he was reading that Jones predicted this drought due to the Sun Minimum cycle and the sun spots polars switching causing our weather to go a little dry, but predictions have been made that it would break by end of April and should see a average-above average rainfall with a wet summer to look forward to...Refreshing but ill keep you upto date with the predictions unless anyone else has links smile

here's a little reading on Indigo Jones

http://www.naa.gov.au/exhibitions/events/tim_sherratt.html

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#5619 - 11/04/2007 19:51 Re: The Solar-Climate connection
Michael Hauber Offline
Junior Member

Registered: 09/02/2007
Posts: 28
Loc: Brisbane
A good rebuttal of the electric sun theory can be found at: http://tim-thompson.com/electric-sun.html

Basically the shortage of neutrinos is an observation from 30 years ago that there were around half the number of neutrinos that the models predicted. The models have been updated and correctly predict the currently measured number of neutrinos.

The electric sun suggests that the sun is strongly positively charged, which explains the solar wind as positively charged material repelled from the sun. The power source for the sun is a large influx of electrons. However observations show that the solar wind contains electrons flowing away from the sun - totally at odds with this theory.

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#5620 - 17/04/2007 23:12 Re: The Solar-Climate connection
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6849
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Ok then, I’ll try a get into gear a little…

According to standard solar fusion theory, with the p-p reaction, about 1.8 x 10^38 neutrinos are produced by the Sun per second. This means at Earth's distance, some 400 trillion neutrinos go through us every second, which is a huge number, and yet we don't really interact with any of them. The detection of these neutrinos however would give us a “window” into the solar core, because they pass through the interior of the Sun with ease. Radiant energy from the Sun’s core however may take millions of years to reach the surface.

Without getting too caught up in the details, on the neutrino puzzle... Solar neutrino puzzle is solved .

In solar fusion theory, for the "missing" neutrinos the problem is in the detection. Those neutrinos from the p-p reaction have an energy which is far too low for detection. So we move to detect higher energy neutrinos coming from a reaction involving Helium-3 and -4 particles. According to the standard solar model, the detector used should measure about 8 x 10^-36 interactions per second per atom, or 8 SNU, with an error of around 33%. In the experiment it was found that the neutrino detector averaged only 2.2 SNU with a deviation of 0.3 SNU, which is only about one third of the calculated number. This discrepancy is well outside both the uncertainty of the calculations and experimental deviations.

Despite this, I can understand why neutrinos might undergo oscillations to change state on their way here (this being on the condition they may have a net zero rest mass), but their mass is so far undetected, and to confirm the oscillations of neutrinos between the Sun and the Earth would require simultaneous neutrino measurements to be made near the Sun. That would probably pose formidable experimental problems.

And on the details of the solar wind...

The solar wind is comprised of about 95% plasma, which is made up of mostly positive ions, with some negative ions, and in the presence of an electromagnetic field. As I understand it, both the positive and negative ions are not being “repelled” from the sun because if they were the force of repulsion would be stronger closer to the sun rather than further from it, and we know that the solar wind is accelerating with distance from the sun. This points me towards other forces at work. It was mentioned on www.electric-cosmos.org/sun that the easiest way to get charged particles to accelerate was to apply an electric field to them (Force = Electric Field Strength/Charge). It seems that this could explain the acceleration of the mostly positively charged solar “wind” particles. It has also been shown with data from Ul...e sun\'s corona , from equatorial to mid solar latitudes, and that the speed of the solar wind varies inversely with coronal temperature (increase the coronal temperature, decrease the speed). Looking at it another way, the solar wind is faster where the corona is cooler and slower where it’s hotter. The dynamics of applying an electric field to charged particles also means there is a corresponding magnetic field. And when charged particles (positive and negative) are moving through a magnetic field, they will move in different (opposite) directions, so the directions the charged particles of the solar wind travel in depends on the orientation of the Sun’s complex magnetic field and its strength.

A charged solar wind (rather than electrically neutral one) would also explain the electrical interactions between the Earth’s atmosphere - ionosphere (in the polar regions) and the high-energy particles (ions) of the solar wind, i.e. phenomena such as the aurora. The aurora being the result of electric discharges.

Near the sun electric currents travel in the form of huge rotating filaments called Birkeland currents, which connect with the sun via the polar regions. The Birkeland current filaments rotated due to the ions they carry, generating a magnetic field, which in turn exerts a magnetic force on the ions, causing them to rotate in a filament structure. This is a sustained process, and where a proportion of the electrons in the solar wind come from. The remainder come from the magnetodynamic storage effects the of plasma layers of the sun’s chromosphere and photosphere. These are the regions in which most of the sun’s electrical energy is stored. The sun’s chromosphere consists of a plasma double layer (DL) of electric charge. Double layer meaning both positive and negative ions are present. And another good place to search for electrons may be above the granules in the photosphere.

The currents that power the sun travel from the polar regions to the equatorial regions. If you think of the sun’s rotation as the movement of current, it’s that current which generates a magnetic field. As the current is forced outwards to the equator (due to both magnetic forces through the Sun and dipolar gravitational forces induced by internal electrical potential differences) it’s concentrated in enormous photospheric flows of ionised gases. This circuit of plasma flow is completed when the plasma current is directed outwards (along with elements and isotopes) in a “sheet” that’s orientated relative to the ecliptic plane of the solar system at the middle and lower latitudes of the sun (see above about Ulysses). The phrase “solar wind” is a misnomer. The “solar wind” is a sheet plasma operating in dark current mode; a mode that has a very low current density which is basically invisible to the naked eye because it doesn’t glow.

To measure the electromagnetic activity of this plasma (without confusing it with other data) you require very accurate instruments; preferentially in UV and X-ray band of measurement.

There we go smile , that was an attempt. There's probably a lot more to be explored about the Sun to do with cosmic rays, the heliosphere, the Sun magnetic field, the sunspots cycle and so on. Just waiting for more news.
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*Kindness is our ally.

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#5621 - 01/06/2007 19:59 Re: The Solar-Climate connection
Carl Smith Offline
Member

Registered: 21/12/2001
Posts: 1042
Loc: Gold Coast
Quote:
Originally posted by Michael Hauber:
A good rebuttal of the electric sun theory can be found at: http://tim-thompson.com/electric-sun.html
Don Scott's demolition of Tim Thompson's rebuttal of the "The Electric Sun" can be found at:
http://www.electric-cosmos.org/Rejoinder.htm

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#5622 - 02/06/2007 11:45 Re: The Solar-Climate connection
Carl Smith Offline
Member

Registered: 21/12/2001
Posts: 1042
Loc: Gold Coast
I have started a new blog called Landscheidt Cycles Research where I intend to discuss some quite interesting material - I expect things will be a little slow there at first until people get to know where it is and what they want to discuss there - however anyone who is genuinely interested is welcome to come and join in (and I will continue to post here as well when I have time).

After spending some time learning how to use some of the blog admin functions, I have started posting there, with yesterday's addition examining Dr Landscheidt's forecast for upcoming solar cycle 24:

Dr Landscheidt’s Solar Cycle 24 Prediction

Here are a couple of brief extracts:

Dr Landscheidt wrote in 1999:
Quote:
The extrapolation of the observed pattern points to sunspot maxima around 2000.6 and 2011.8. If a further connection with long-range variations in sunspot intensity proves reliable, four to five weak sunspot cycles (R less than 80) are to be expected after cycle 23 with medium strength (R ~ 100).
And my response to the above:
Quote:
As we have not yet reached solar minimum, and no high latitude cycle 24 spots have yet appeared, we may still be 12 to 18 months from minimum if recent cycles are anything to go by, and I venture a speculation that if no cycle 24 spots appear in the very near future then perhaps Dr Landscheidt should have also mentioned the other possible date of the upcoming solar max using his methods, 2013.6 (see details of his methods in the paper), which if it turns out to be true means a very long cycle which could indicate a very low sunspot max.
Also on the new blog you will find a page with links to all the online papers by Dr Theodor Landscheidt that I could find, and another page that links to an ephemeris of the Solar System Barycentre giving longitude, distance, angular momentum, and torque, every 5 days for the full 6000 years from 3000BC to 3000AD based on NASA JPL data.

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#5623 - 02/06/2007 15:40 Re: The Solar-Climate connection
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6849
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Thanks very much for that link to Don Scott's work smile , it was very helpful in clearing some things up for me.

As I understand it the sun could be undergoing somewhat of a surge in energy at the present and into the near future (months to years), just looking at a graph of sunspots from 1500 to 2006. It would be interesting to see what correlations can be found between the rise and fall of the global average temperature and that of the sunspot cycle.
_________________________
*Kindness is our ally.

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#5624 - 02/06/2007 17:31 Re: The Solar-Climate connection
Carl Smith Offline
Member

Registered: 21/12/2001
Posts: 1042
Loc: Gold Coast
nazdec, have a look at:
SOLAR WIND NEAR EARTH: INDICATOR OF VARIATIONS IN GLOBAL TEMPERATURE
and
New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming?

The Sun will move through the minimum in the next year or so, and head towards a solar max again, but I think it will be a very weak cycle with a smoothed max probably less than 80 (there are several precursors of this already in place), followed by several more very weak cycles.

It seems to me that the next decade will see the oceans start to lose temperature again along with the global average, and the first real world test for AGW will be underway - the death of the recent El Nino should see global temps falling before the end of the year (there is a lag of many months in the ENSO effect on global temps).

If Dr Landscheidt’s Solar Cycle 24 Prediction and New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming? are correct, the next few decades will see the world plunged into another 'Mini Ice Age' by 2030, the likes of which have not been experienced since the late 1600's.

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#5625 - 04/06/2007 18:15 Re: The Solar-Climate connection
Carl Smith Offline
Member

Registered: 21/12/2001
Posts: 1042
Loc: Gold Coast
As a follow up to the above, I have written a post called New Little Ice Age Instead of Global Warming? examining Dr Landscheidt's paper of the same name on my new blog - here is an extract:

Dr Landscheidt wrote:
Quote:
Abstract: Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8° C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown that minima in the 80 to 90-year Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun’s oscillatory motion about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove skillful as other long-range forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun’s orbital motion, have turned out correct as for instance the prediction of the last three El Nińos years before the respective event.
And my response to the above:
Quote:
If Dr. Landscheidt is correct about this, we are about to enter an extended period of much reduced solar activity and therefore an extended period of global cooling, which will offer the first real world test of the IPCC’s CO2 forced global warming claims. On the downside of this, a return to climate conditions not experienced since about 1670 by the year 2030 will bring much hardship to millions, as many of the world’s foodbowls fail due to extreme cold, while demand for fossil fuels will increase just so people can survive the extreme cold in higher latitudes.

Unfortunately, the current obsession with global warming pseudoscience combined with hefty increases in the price of carbon use being planned and/or implemented in various countries means that very few will be prepared for the sudden significant downturn in temperatures likely to begin manifesting during the next few years, and as is so often the case, the poor will be the ones that suffer most due to the incompetence of certain prominent scientists prepared to over state the soundness of their science on the basis of a prejudicial belief, combined with a well orchestrated media campaign that has convinced much of the public and policymakers of the need to make huge sacrifices in order to ’save the planet’ from a human induced fever that in fact probably only exists in the minds of the ‘true believers’.
Comments are welcome on my blog, or here if you prefer.

After examining some of the papers, I intend to conduct a more in depth analysis working through and hopefully expanding on some of his methods.

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#5626 - 05/06/2007 10:59 Re: The Solar-Climate connection
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6849
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Hi Carl,

Just a question regarding the Gleissberg and Suess solar cycles. Do you think there could be anything like a base line to the number of sunspots recorded, similar to the base flow of a creek or river? I guess you could call the minimum when no sunspots are recorded a base line flow, but would you really be recording anything at all? Or would it be better to work with the Hallstatt cycle and try and find an average minimum?

I'm also wondering about how confident you may be of the accuracy of extending the Milankovitch variations (eccentricity, obliquity and precession of the equinox) back over 1 million years into the past?
_________________________
*Kindness is our ally.

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#5627 - 05/06/2007 12:07 Re: The Solar-Climate connection
BD (Bucketing Down) Offline
Member

Registered: 12/04/2006
Posts: 1799
Loc: Eastern Adelaide Hills, SA
Carl,
While I have read Dr Landscheidt work and followed his predictions and find his stuff very good. What about the NASA big 24 cycle prediction based on rapid movement of suns flow 2 cycles ago ie last cycle, and the low 25 cycle based on very slow movement of suns flow 2 cycles previous ie now...this cycle. If that were true this coming cycle would be very active and produce even higher temps before the following cycle starts to produce the cooling lower temps.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10mar_stormwarning.htm
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10may_longrange.htm
If this is the case then global warming theorists will have a field day out of the next cycle 24, before any cooling comes in cycle 25, then the problem starts for them...if this is correct, of course. What do you make of it, Carl?

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#5628 - 05/06/2007 14:08 Re: The Solar-Climate connection
Carl Smith Offline
Member

Registered: 21/12/2001
Posts: 1042
Loc: Gold Coast
Quote:
Originally posted by nazdeck:
Hi Carl,

Just a question regarding the Gleissberg and Suess solar cycles. Do you think there could be anything like a base line to the number of sunspots recorded, similar to the base flow of a creek or river? I guess you could call the minimum when no sunspots are recorded a base line flow, but would you really be recording anything at all? Or would it be better to work with the Hallstatt cycle and try and find an average minimum?

I'm also wondering about how confident you may be of the accuracy of extending the Milankovitch variations (eccentricity, obliquity and precession of the equinox) back over 1 million years into the past?
The longer term cycles are all worthy of investigation, although the 2,300 year Hallstatt cycle is pushing the envelope, as dating becomes less certain the further one pushes back in time.

With regard to sunspots, the Maunder Minimum (1645 to 1715) was a period of about 70 years where very few sunspots were recorded, in spite of people actively looking for them, however there were enough spots through most of it to make an educated guess for the 11 year cycle. The further back in time one goes, the less reliable the data is, and we only have telescope observations from 1610, with very sparse observational data before that, mostly from China. This record is supplemented by aurora observations that have enabled reconstruction of solar cycles further back to about 300 BC, with very few observations prior to then. For longer time periods, there is only proxy data such as isotopes e.g. C14 in tree rings, etc, and dating uncertainties are higher the further back one goes, however they do show a good correlation where the records overlap.

We have calculated astronomical solar system data extending back about 5000 years that has been partially verified by historical accounts of eclipses and planetary conjunctions etc., however this becomes more suspect beyond a few thousand years, relying on assumptions of long term solar system stability.

When it comes to Milankovitch cycles, these depend on the theory that the distant past is like today, and all these are extrapolated on the basis of solar system stability, which is by no means certain, however if true then these cycles can be extended back millions of years - the fact is that they have only been determined by proxies such as ice and sediment cores where dating over such long spans is an issue, and the further back in time the core dating goes the more it relies on the assumed stability of these cycles.

For my investigations I am limiting myself to the period covered by the NASA JPL Horizons Online Ephemeris , which has astronomical data from 3000BC to 3000AD, and much of it will be focussed on the last 1000 years or so where data is more reliable.

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#5629 - 05/06/2007 14:27 Re: The Solar-Climate connection
Carl Smith Offline
Member

Registered: 21/12/2001
Posts: 1042
Loc: Gold Coast
Quote:
Originally posted by HillsHolts:
Carl,
While I have read Dr Landscheidt work and followed his predictions and find his stuff very good. What about the NASA big 24 cycle prediction based on rapid movement of suns flow 2 cycles ago ie last cycle, and the low 25 cycle based on very slow movement of suns flow 2 cycles previous ie now...this cycle. If that were true this coming cycle would be very active and produce even higher temps before the following cycle starts to produce the cooling lower temps.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10mar_stormwarning.htm
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10may_longrange.htm
If this is the case then global warming theorists will have a field day out of the next cycle 24, before any cooling comes in cycle 25, then the problem starts for them...if this is correct, of course. What do you make of it, Carl?
The NASA people who are making these predictions are the same ones who predicted cycle 23 would be about as strong as cycle 22 - they were wrong then and there is no good reason to suppose they are right this time - in fact they are already starting to back away from strong cycle 24 predictions .

Dr Landscheidt and several others predicted a moderate cycle 23, and were closer to the mark than NASA, so I am inclined to agree with them on an even weaker cycle 24.

You may be interested in this recent mainstream paper that lends support to Dr Landscheidt's prediction:

Predicting Solar Cycle 24 and beyond

Quote:
Abstract: We use a model for sunspot number using low-frequency solar oscillations, with periods 22, 53, 88, 106, 213, and 420 years modulating the 11-year Schwabe cycle, to predict the peak sunspot number of cycle 24 and for future cycles, including the period around 2100 A.D. We extend the earlier work of Damon and Jirikowic (1992) by adding a further long-period component of 420 years. Typically, the standard deviation between the model and the peak sunspot number in each solar cycle from 1750 to 1970 is ±34. The peak sunspot prediction for cycles 21, 22, and 23 agree with the observed sunspot activity levels within the error estimate. Our peak sunspot prediction for cycle 24 is significantly smaller than cycle 23, with peak sunspot numbers predicted to be 42 ± 34. These predictions suggest that a period of quiet solar activity is expected, lasting until 2030, with less disruption to satellite orbits, satellite lifetimes, and power distribution grids and lower risk of spacecraft failures and radiation dose to astronauts. Our model also predicts a recovery during the middle of the century to more typical solar activity cycles with peak sunspot numbers around 120. Eventually, the superposition of the minimum phase of the 105- and 420-year cycles just after 2100 leads to another period of significantly quieter solar conditions. This lends some support to the prediction of low solar activity in 2100 made by Clilverd et al. (2003).

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#5630 - 05/06/2007 19:13 Re: The Solar-Climate connection
BD (Bucketing Down) Offline
Member

Registered: 12/04/2006
Posts: 1799
Loc: Eastern Adelaide Hills, SA
Thanks Carl. Very interesting reading, and very interesting times ahead by the look!

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#5631 - 12/06/2007 17:23 Re: The Solar-Climate connection
Carl Smith Offline
Member

Registered: 21/12/2001
Posts: 1042
Loc: Gold Coast
Astrophysicist Nir Shaviv has a new post on his blog called:

The fine art of fitting elephants

I’m sure some of you will find it quite interesting!

Also, please note that I have fixed the spam filter issue that was blocking comments on my new blog - if anyone has any further problems posting there, please let me know.

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#5632 - 28/06/2007 12:05 Re: The Solar-Climate connection
Carl Smith Offline
Member

Registered: 21/12/2001
Posts: 1042
Loc: Gold Coast
I posted this in another thread, but I think it also belongs here:

Here's a quite interesting paper on the connection between solar motion in galactic space and river flows:

Linkages between solar activity, climate predictability and water resource development
by W J R Alexander, F Bailey, D B Bredenkamp, A van der Merwe and N Willemse
JOURNAL OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN INSTITUTION OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
Vol 49 No 2, June 2007, Pages 32–44, Paper 659

Quote:
This study is based on the numerical analysis of the properties of routinely observed hydrometeorological data which in South Africa alone is collected at a rate of more than half a million station days per year, with some records approaching 100 continuous years in length. The analysis of this data demonstrates an unequivocal synchronous linkage between these processes in South Africa and elsewhere, and solar activity. This confirms observations and reports by others in many countries during the past 150 years.
It is also shown with a high degree of assurance that there is a synchronous linkage between the statistically significant, 21-year periodicity in these processes and the acceleration and deceleration of the sun as it moves through galactic space. Despite a diligent search, no evidence could be found of trends in the data that could be attributed to human activities.
It is essential that this information be accommodated in water resource development and operation procedures in the years ahead.
Certainly worthy of further investigation using Australian data to see how strong the local correlation is - there could be a good paper in this for someone who has access to all the data!

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#5633 - 28/06/2007 12:44 Re: The Solar-Climate connection
Carl Smith Offline
Member

Registered: 21/12/2001
Posts: 1042
Loc: Gold Coast
For those interested in studying solar motion and sunspots (and their relation to climate), here is a somewhat dated but very useful paper on the subject:

Suns Motion and Sunspots
by Paul D Jose.
THE ASTRONOMICAL JOURNAL VOLUME 79, NUMBER 3 APRIL 1965

Quote:
The investigation discloses that the variation in the motion of of the sun about the center of mass of the solar system has a periodicity of 178.7 yr. The sunspot cycle is found to have the same period. Although the oscillations in the sunspot numbers and in the sun's motion are not in perfect agreement, the few departures that do occur, occur under very similar conditions.
There is some fascinating material here, especially the methodology of determining solar cycles via the sun's motion, and of current interest is that the upcoming solar minimum that we were told by NASA was supposed to be early 2007 but is clearly delayed was predicted to be in 2009 by the author way back in 1965!



This has strong implications for future climate, as exceptionally long solar cycles are associated with low solar activity and a colder climate - the next mini-ice age could be upon us within a decade or so - the heat sink effect of the oceans should delay it for a while, as it takes many years for the oceans to lose the heat built up in the recent half century of exceptionally strong solar activity.

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#5634 - 28/06/2007 12:54 Re: The Solar-Climate connection
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
I am currently working on a very similar project.
I have the rainfall data of all the BOM stations in Australia (some have unfortunately shut down).

My efforts involve taking linear regressions of the 11-year moving averages of annual rainfalls against the 11 year moving average of sunspot numbers, then fitting a cosine curve (based on a complete solar cycle of 22 years) to the regressed rainfalls. The purpose of the regresson is to find the coefficients that best fit the cosine curve.

The assumption of 22 years appears to be verified by Fourier analysis of the regressed series. It is consistently coming up with a period of 21-23 years...that's close enough for me to wonder whether there's a mathematical quirk somewhere..but I don't think there is.

There is also evidence of a change in the solar phase which may differ in timing for different latitudes of the observing stations or may be more pronounced in some data than in others.

I hope to write up some sort of article on it all at some stage.

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#5635 - 28/06/2007 13:29 Re: The Solar-Climate connection
Dr Odious Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2006
Posts: 209
Loc: Canberra
For anyone interested, the recent paper: Foukal, P., Frohlich, C. Spruit, H. and Wigley, T. M. L. (2006)Variations in solar luminosity and their effect on the earth's climate. Nature 443:161-166 is an interesting read.

Some quotes:

"...this new understanding indicates that brightening of the Sun is unlikely to have had a significant influence on global warming since the seventeenth century."

"Further simulations with solar forcing alone show that the solar contribution to warming over the past 30 years is negligible."

"Overall we can find no evidence for solar luminosity variations of sufficient amplitude to drive significant climate variations on centennial, millenial or even million-year timescales."

The main caveat is:

"Less direct Sun-climate couplings driven by the Sun's well-known variability in ultraviolet flux and in outputs of magnetized plasma might yet account for Sun-climate correlations that defy explanation by the direct influence of TSI variation considered here."

but they go on to say:

".. a recent reconstruction (ref 78) shows that the time series of solar ultraviolet flux since 1915 differs substantially from the behaviour of TSI and exhibits a surprisingly poor correlation with global temperature."

This has some bearing on this thread

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#5636 - 28/06/2007 14:38 Re: The Solar-Climate connection
Carl Smith Offline
Member

Registered: 21/12/2001
Posts: 1042
Loc: Gold Coast
Sorry, but I cannot access that article.

From the abstract, I note that they only seem to be using sat-obs, which is way to short for such definitive conclusions, and they seem to only be investigating TSI, which is far too restrictive to be meaningful.

Aside from passing references to possible UV and plasma effects, for the most part they seem to be ignoring the effects of solar modulation of high energy cosmic ray flux, ion-electron fluxes, solar magnetic field reversals, and the electromagnetic coupling that provides a substantial but inadequately quantified power input to planet Earth from the Sun.

Until NASA finds a way to adequately measure the total electrical component accompanying the magnetism and ion-electron particle fluxes of the Sun-Earth interaction, all studies that conclude the effects of the Sun on climate are minimal can safely be ignored as little more than intellectual curiosities, because they are working with inadequate information to come to such conclusions.

In the meantime, we will have to make do with the abundant evidence of correlations that show qualitative connections, even though we cannot properly quantify them.

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#5637 - 29/06/2007 08:47 Re: The Solar-Climate connection
Dr Odious Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2006
Posts: 209
Loc: Canberra
since the seventeen century

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